NAB Morning Call
Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E81 · Wed, April 16, 2025
NVIDIA AI chip ban as trade war with China escalates
Thursday 17th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Things are getting uglier in the trade war between the US and China. Equity markets have been hit by new limits on the export of NVIDIA’s critical AI chip to China, and threats of secondary tariffs on US trade partners who trade significantly with China. NAB’s Gavin Friend also talks through Jerome Powell’s speech and fireside chat at the Economics Club of China. He basically said, that with all the uncertainty, there’s a chance the Fed could hold back on any further cuts this year. That all depends on whether tariffs are eased. It’ll be a question the ECB will have been pondering ahead of today’s rate decision. There’s also Australian employment data to talk about. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E80 · Tue, April 15, 2025
Boeing banned, bearish bank survey, royal win for Britain?
Wednesday 16th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Tariff and trade news continues to dominate and drive markets in all directions. Sentiment surveys are now showing a serious downturn, with the Bank of America claiming investors are ayt their most bearish in 30 years. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we are still waiting to see the hard data from April. The difference in FX moves for the pound and the Euro has been interesting, with a deal with the EU seeming a long way off, with JD Vance suggesting a deal with the UK could be closer, because of Trump’s love of the royal family. Meanwhile China has reportedly stopped their airlines from buying or leasing aircraft or parts from Boeing. It’s another day of information overload, which makes it a tough call for the Bank of Canada later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E79 · Mon, April 14, 2025
More tariff exemptions, but equities lose their early gains
Tuesday 15th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities kicked off Monday’s session sharply higher on Friday's news of tariff exemptions for certain electronics items. Apple was one of the big beneficiaries. But as the session progressed most of those gains diminished, perhaps as President Trump’s weekend social media post sank in, suggesting nobody was exempt, they were just being moved to a different tariff bucket. Then, news circulated that car parts may also be exempt, pushing up the share price of auto manufacturers. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to make sense of the latest moves and to pick through the data that is still helping to guide investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E78 · Sun, April 13, 2025
CEOs force exemptions. Is Trump ready to deal?
Monday 14th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was very little market reaction to the increase in tariffs from China on Friday. Could equities respond, though, to the news of exemptions announced by President Trump for certain electronics goods. Could this mean, as CEOs queue up for meetings at the White House, more exemptions will follow, including country-specific trade deals. NAB’s Skye Masters says all of that could be good for equity markets, but the damage has already been done for bond markets, with the sell off indebt likely to continue, pushing the US dollar lower. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E77 · Fri, April 11, 2025
Weekend Edition: Does money supply determine economic health?
Friday 11th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Economists these days tend not to treat the supply of money as a major determinant of economic growth. That’s because a downturn in the supply of money can be counteracted by the speed at which money changes hands. This week Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, argues against that belief. The velocity of money is relatively constant, he says, but the supply of money is the major determinant of economic output, driven primarily by loans from commercial banks. Listen to his reasoning on this week’s podcast and why he thinks the RBA is doing a good job for Australia, but the US could be heading for a recession, even before Trump’s tariff adventure. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E76 · Thu, April 10, 2025
Short lived optimism
Friday 11th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday’s rebound in US equities has proven to be very short-lived, with equities well down at the close in New York. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s a reality check, with the tariff war continuing between the US and China, and the question of whether Trump will be realistic in the deals he seeks with other countries over the next 90 days. We are getting close to the end of the week with an immense amount of uncertainty, although the Aussie dollar has managed to gain ground in the midst of it all. NAB, meanwhile, has revised its outlook for the RBA, expected a more aggressive path of rate cuts. Listen in for more on that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E75 · Wed, April 09, 2025
Trump Caves, Stocks Soar
Thursday 10th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A roller coaster session on the markets. It started yesterday during the day in Australia with massive selloffs in US bonds on the news of rising tariffs from China and the US. The US is now up to 125%, with China imposing 84% from tomorrow. NAB’s Ken Crompton says if there was a Laffer Curve for tariffs we are well beyond the point where revenue keeps rising. But late in the session President Trump announced a 90-day delay on some of the heftier tariffs – China excepted. Elsewhere a 10% tariff will apply, and world leaders have three months to negotiate. That’s resulted in a record turnaround in US equity markets, although bond markets are a little less convinced. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E74 · Tue, April 08, 2025
Five Minutes to Midnight
Wednesday 9th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The full set of US tariffs applies from midnight tonight in the US (2pm Sydney and Melbourne). Including the hefty ones with China. As NAB’s Sally Auld says, the China tariff is so high its basically an acknowledgement that they don’t want to trade with China anymore, unless a deal is done. There has been more talk of potential deals. If any of them come to pass it will be an indication that the Trump administration is willing to negotiate, rather than slavishly sticking to a principal of completely balancing trade with each country. Who knows? Certainly, the optimism in the markets early on in the session quickly diminished and stock markets closed well down in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E73 · Mon, April 07, 2025
Bad Medicine and Lots of Hope Priced In
Tuesday 8th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were momentarily excited earlier when it seemed that the President might be delaying tariffs for 90 days. Up to that point US equities were continuing to spiral lower, but newfound optimism that Trump might moderate his approach saw a swift reversal. When it emerged that the story was nothing but fake news and, if anything, the President was digging his heals in harder, markets didn’t immediately return to their session lows. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says part of that could be because more CEOs are speaking out against the tariffs and that could force the plans to be rolled back. But, Phil asks, does that mean market have further to go if it becomes clear that the tariffs will stick, and go beyond a temporary negotiating tool. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E72 · Sun, April 06, 2025
China hits back. EU makes plans.
Monday 7th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB In a world gone a little bit crazy, the only question is, how much crazier can it get? China has been the first to hit back at the US with retaliatory tariffs applied from April 10th. EU trade ministers are meeting today to discuss the next steps. If compromises aren’t found, what happens next? NAB’s Rodrig Catril says they are not forecasting a US recession just yet, although some are – like JP Morgan, for example. Jerome Powell was reasonably circumspect on Friday, saying the higher tariffs could prolong inflation w which could delay the Fed’s response to an economic downturn. Ironically, non-farm payrolls showed a US economy strengthening, but it seems the President is prepared to jeopardise short term economic stability in exchange for a significant change in the pattern of international trade. If that’s’ the case, negotiated deals this week seem unlikely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E71 · Fri, April 04, 2025
Weekend Edition: Australia’s happy place in the geopolitical landscape
Friday 4th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week TCorp, the NSW Treasury Corporation, put out a report on the evolving financial landscape. They certainly picked an interesting week to launch it. Phil talks to TCorp’s chief economist Brian Redican about how Trump’s approach to trade has created uncertainty and how Australia, like other nations, will be looking for trade partners with the same attitude to free trade. And how, with less trade exposure to the US than the likes of Europe and Canada, and a rich seam of rare earth minerals, could this new trade environment could be beneficial for Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, April 03, 2025
Horror session after the gory details
Thursday 3rd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You’ll know by now that President Trump’s tariff regime was worse than many had expected, even though Australia got off relatively lightly. You might also be aware that, despite the Presidential claims, the numbers were not based on the tariffs charged by supplier nations, but on a relatively crude formula based on the value of exports to the US against the US balance of trade deficit with that country. That makes it rather problematic for countries to fix-lowering tariffs that might not exist in the first place. But could all this be good for Australia. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton, might we be one part of the world where inflation is contained, and interest rates continue their expected downward trajectory? They also talk about non-farm payrolls, because that’s happening today as well. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E69 · Wed, April 02, 2025
Lousy Timing
Thursday 3rd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump’s announcement in the Rose Garden is bad news for us. For the podcast, that is. It’s just after we publish the final edition at the US market close. So, there’s every chance you’ll know what’s happened before you listen. But what happens next? And, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, there’s more to come from President Trump, plus any retaliatory moves by other nations. Rodrigo and Phil talk about how the markets reacted in the build up to the US close. Larry Summers says the real unknown is how much damage it will do to the US economy and the difficult position it places the Fed in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E68 · Tue, April 01, 2025
RBA on hold, Trump ready to go
Wednesday 2nd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets continue to dance around the uncertainty of Donld Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. There was a suggestion in the Wall Street Journal that the President might impose a 20%traiff on all imports, from everywhere, with the White House Press Secretary saying it was her understanding that the tariffs would be applied immediately. The truth is, nobody knows until Donald Trump says it, and even t hen it could change. Data wise we saw a slightly weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing number overnight, with a surprisingly high prices paid component. The JOLTS job openings data also came in weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the numbers, as well as reviewing the RBA decision, statement and press conference yesterday. Eurozone inflation also came down a little. Today, tariffs aside, we get Australian building approvals, and the ADP payrolls numbers for the US, ahead of non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S1 E67 · Mon, March 31, 2025
Fools Gold
Tuesday 1st April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Gold hit another new high overnight on the back of the continued uncertainty about the shape and extent of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. He has suggested that it will include all countries, in some form or other. NAB’s Skye Masters says US shares did regain some ground during the session, having fallen sharply after Friday’s weaker than expected US data. Oil is also higher, with the US President threatening secondary tariffs on any country buying oil from Russia. The RBA will keep rates on hold today, and Skye says it’ll be interesting to see if the governor pushes back on current market pricing for another 70bp of cuts this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S1 E66 · Sun, March 30, 2025
Friday’s stagflation fears
Monday 31st March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This week will almost certainly be dominated by the implementation of auto tariffs into the US and the announcement of further tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’ on Wednesday. Whether it’s the impact of tariffs or not, consumer spending has slowed and inflation expectations rising in data that was out for the US on Friday. Yet labour data has been holding up so far - not what you would see in a stagflation economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we could see a delay in cuts from the Fed. Certainly Mary Daly from the San Francisco Fed was saying on Friday that she’s not comfortable starting any kind of rate path declines right now. The RBA will also stay on hold on Tuesday as they wait for signs that inflation is contained in an increasingly uncertain global economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E65 · Fri, March 28, 2025
Weekend Edition: Age Care Crisis Only Partially Fixed
Friday 28th March 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . New aged care legislation, which becomes law on July 1st, goes somewhere to fixing the funding crisis that has plagued the aged care industry over recent decades. Residents will need to pay more from their assets and super funds. Russell Bricknell is CEO of Juniper Aged Care in Western Australia and says it provides a path for future investment, but there’s a large amount of catching up to do. Many facilities have fallen into states of disrepair as operators struggled to remain solvent. But the bigger issue, says Russell, is how future aged care homes win planning consent, and how a workforce is found to staff these new in-demand facilities: two issues that weren’t addressed in the Aged Care Taskforce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E64 · Thu, March 27, 2025
Not tariffic for US auto makers
Friday 28th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US share market fell only slight today after yesterday’s announcement that cars and car parts will have a 25% import tariff imposed on them, irrespective of where they come from. Interestingly, US manufacturers seem to have been hit hardest on the share market. Generally, though, markets took the news in their stride. There are several Fed speakers talking today. NNAB’s Taylor Nugent says they’ll remain focussed on inflation expectations, but longer-run market measures haven’t followed survey measures higher for now. UK Gilt yields rose as investors got to grips with yesterday’s budget, and whether the numbers stack up. Is a tax rise the likely next step? Today the US PCE read for February, Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, along with consumer spending and saving data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E63 · Wed, March 26, 2025
Cars and Copper – next for the Trump Treatment
Thursday 27th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are clearly not excited about President Trump’s trade agenda. Equities took a hit in this session on news that an announcement on auto tariffs could happen within hours. There have also been rumours about copper could also be targeted, pushing copper prices to fresh highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a shift in sentiment emerging from the Fed, with Austin Goolsbee warning of the danger of consumer inflation expectations being mirrored in bond yields, with the potential for interest rates to rise again. Locally, Australia’s February CPI print came in just as NAB had predicted, which could pave the way for a cut at the next RBA meeting. Labour market data today will provide more detail on the February print. And the UK economy is slowing more, creating no end of challenges for the Chancellor Rachel Reeve. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E62 · Tue, March 25, 2025
Less confidence, less missiles
Wednesday 26th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US markets lost their mojo a little in this session. NAB’s Gavin friend says this was in part due to a weaker than expected consumer confidence report from the Conference Board. It showed the lowest number for forward expectations in 12 years. The enthusiasm early in the week for more caveats in the April II tariffs diminished somewhat today as president trump indicated that car tariffs would start almost immediately and that his administration was tapping existing laws to impose broader tariffs. There's more enthusiasm in Europe however where Germany's Ifo business expectations rose and there was renewed hope that Ukraine and Russia will agree to a deal to enable merchant shipping in the Black Sea to operate without being shot at. There's also discussion about yesterday's budget, today's CPI numbers and what could be a very tricky day for the UK chancellor. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E61 · Mon, March 24, 2025
The brief return of exceptionalism
Tuesday 25th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar climbed a little today as US equities rallied, led by the Magnificent Seven. It’s like the good old days of American exceptionalism, but will it last or is it a brief stint of buying the dip? That’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Sally Auld. Some of the ‘hope’ might be driven by confusion over tariffs. At a cabinet meeting today President Trump talked about auto and pharma tariffs being imposed soon, without mentioning the broader tariffs expected on April 2nd. Oil prices pushed higher as he announced tariffs on any country buying oil from Venezuela. Also, why has the Yen fallen so far today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E60 · Sun, March 23, 2025
Nine More Sleeps
Friday 21st March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The clock is ticking close to April 2nd when the Trump administration unleashes its comprehensive tariff program. As Liberation Day nears, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether claims of the end to American exceptionalism were premature, with the US dollar manages to climb a little and equities seeing a few positive sessions. Today’s PMIs will be telling – do European purchasing managers have a more positive outlook than their American counterparts? As expected, Mark Carney announced a Canadian election over the weekend and used his speech to deliver a few harsh words against the US President, also as expected. And UK Gilt yields rose on Friday as rising government debt added to the country’s economic woes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E59 · Fri, March 21, 2025
Weekend Edition: Bank Hybrids. Just too complex?
Friday 21st March 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . APRA plans to phase out bank hybrids (AT1s) by January 2027. So, what exactly are AT1s and why is the regulator so concerned? In short, they are CoCos, contingent convertibles that transfer to equities when a bank capital’s capital falls below a tipping point. But do mum and dad investors understand the complexity of the offering and do the instruments adequately provide for their intended purpose? That’s APRA’s big concern, pointing to the Credit Suisse example where AT1 investors lost a lot of money. Chris Joye from Coolabah Capital has been critical of the APRA decision. While initially he thought AT1s were too complex an instrument and there was an elegant simplicity in choosing between stocks and bonds, his position has changed. He now worries that some of the mum and dad investors could be driven to even riskier assets. Chris is not one to hold back his opinions, which you’ll hear this week, but he also does a great job of explaining how this asset class works. Something you won’t be able to buy after next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E58 · Thu, March 20, 2025
Digesting the Fed’s Transitory Inflation Assumption
Friday 21st March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB One of the takeouts from yesterday's FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell's view that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be transitory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets are still expecting two or more cuts this year as a result. Today he looks at the market reaction to the Fed meeting, what happened at the Bank of England, and why Australian employer numbers yesterday were such a big miss. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E57 · Wed, March 19, 2025
Fed focused on “signal to noise” ratio
Thursday 20th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rates on hold as expected and, unsurprisingly, cut their growth projections, increased inflation and increased the unemployment forecast for this year. But the dot plot has changed very little. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the Fed’s statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference that followed. It’s clear that the FOMC is in a wait-and-see mode in light of Trump’s policies and the next meeting will be the one to watch for. The forecasts also suggest that they see the inflationary impacts of tariffs to be transitory - something that was reinforced during the press conference. The Bank of Japan also sat on their hands, citing trade policy concerns. Next, it’s the Bank of England’s turn to do nothing. With no press conference or forecasts it’s up to you whether you stay up late for it. Before any of those, Australia’s employment data is out today, with NAB expecting a slight fall in the unemployment rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E56 · Tue, March 18, 2025
Ceasefires – one ends as another opens up, perhaps
Wednesday 19th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was more market uncertainty today driven largely by geopolitics. Trump and Putin have reached an outline agreement for a 30day ceasefire, but it really hasn’t moved markets. There was more of a concern over the end to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Oil is higher and gold has reached new highs again today. Phil talks to NAB’s Skye’s Masters above moves overnight, including the shift in share purchases from the USA to Europe. And Canada’s CPI rises again - a cause for concern for the Bank of Canada and one that could be echoed around the world? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E55 · Mon, March 17, 2025
No news, good news
Tuesday 18th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equities had a good session overnight on both sides of the Atlantic, perhaps because there wasn’t much in the way of bad news. The headline number of US retails sales was weaker than anticipated, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it wasn’t bad when you looked a little deeper. The Empire Sate Manufacturing index showed a big dip but is also considerably volatile. Markets weren’t too excited by the press conference in China where authorities announced their special initiatives to boost domestic consumption, but it continues to be a cautious approach, although it might have helped the Aussie dollar a little, which rose more than other major currencies. The news to look out for today relates to Ukraine – Trump and Putin are talking, will they reach a ceasefire deal that Ukraine will agree to? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E54 · Sun, March 16, 2025
Future plans
Monday 17th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We know a lot about President Trump’s plan for America First. Today we get to hear China’s plans for growth. NAB’s tapas Strickland says the PBoC and the finance ministry will hold a press conference today about measures being introduced to boost consumption. That boosted Chinese stocks on Friday. In the US the government has passed their spending bill, so the Trump administration can move forward on their plans. And the NVIDIA GTC conference kicks off today, known by some as the Woodstock of AI, with their CEO Jensen Huang outlining his vision for the future. And the OECD plays out its forecasts for global growth today as well. Plus, we’ll no doubt learn something new about what President Trump has planned. A forward-looking start to the week, you might say. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E53 · Fri, March 14, 2025
Weekend Edition: Does Australia need to spend big on defence?
Friday 14th March 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week we discovered the extent of Australia’s close relationship with the US. Not that close, it seems with the Trump administration happy to apply a 25 percent tariff on our steel and aluminium exports. Next month, maybe our GST charge will be used as an excuse for a 10%tariff on everything we export. In Europe through, it’s not just trade that is testing the US relationship. It’s defence as well. Trump wants EU nations to stand on their own and not rely on the US to provide half the hardware and ammunition. Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, says we are entering a different global order. So, what’s Australia’s place in this new world? Do we, for example, need to spend up big, just as Europe is doing, to defend ourselves from China. Sam says not, but we should rethink AUKUS and question why we have the US Airforce operating from our territory. What’s more, he says we should listen to finance markets, which move on news of tariffs, but tend to ignore geopolitics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E52 · Thu, March 13, 2025
Booze battle brewing
Friday 14th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets behaved in a classic risk-off fashion this session, with equities falling and safe-haven currencies rising. Even the US dollar came to the party. Why? A day of bad news basically. Phil talks through it with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. First, tariff tensions. President Trump is threatening 200 percent tariffs on alcohol from Europe in response to the EU’s retaliatory strikes. Secondly, data. Even though the headline PPI read for the US suggested inflation is slowing, Rodrigo says it’s a different picture when you look under the hood. Finally, the ceasefire. The language coming from Putin suggests it is extremely unlikely. Today the Rengo report on Wages data is a key release, and what it will mean for the direction of the Bank of Japan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E51 · Wed, March 12, 2025
Aluminium and steel tariffs, no exceptions. So far.
Thursday 13th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Trump administration applied a worldwide tariff on exports of aluminium and steel to the US effective today. The knee jerk response has varied from country to country. Europe is enacting retaliatory measures, whereas the UK is keeping quiet and hoping for some sort of free trade deal. Good luck with that. NAB’s Sally Auld says Australia is sensibly avoiding an immediate response, given it constitutes a relatively small part of our total export market. But tariffs are showing signs of slowing economies. A snap survey by the Bank of Canada - who cut rates yesterday – showed households and businesses were cutting back on spending in the face of uncertainty. Repeated globally could this transmit into an economic slowdown that will see central banks ignoring short term lifts in inflation, assuming prices will fall as the economy slows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E50 · Tue, March 11, 2025
It was turnaround Tuesday
Wednesday 12th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Two bits of late breaking news swung markets around towards the Tuesday close in the US. First, a cease fire agreement has been reached with Ukraine in Jeddah, with the US resuming intelligence sharing in the interim. It’s got ot be agreed with Russia, but it was enough to turn US equities sharply into the green, having lost ground for most of the session. The other news was a moderation in the rhetoric between the US and Canada. Having imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity exported from Ontario President Trump said he would double the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium. Canada’s peace offering was to remove the electricity surcharge. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through these latest manoeuvres and the market response, as well as examining overnight data including the JOLTs numbers and the NFIB small business survey. They also look at yesterday’s Australian data, which showed business confidence falling whilst consumer confidence rose. Today US CPI and a rate cut from the Bank of Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E49 · Mon, March 10, 2025
Is the US heading for a recession?
Tuesday 11th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are clearly concerned about the direction of the US economy, as bond yields rise and equities fall sharply again. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether there’s an overreaction happening. Surely, if the economy is seen to be struggling, the Trump administration will reverse course. Maybe, says Tapas although this time the US President seems less preoccupied with share prices and told Fox News over the weekend that, even if there was a recession, it’s all part of a transition period to something big. This week there will be more fireworks between the US and Canada, with fighting words from Mark Carney, the new Canadian PM. Today, the NAB Business Survey is out, alongside JOLTS data and the NFIB small business survey. And tomorrow, tariffs on steel supposedly. Plus, why Phil should be getting an invite to a proposed Trump Xi summit. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E48 · Sun, March 09, 2025
Working through the detox
Monday 10th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The downturn in shares, the weaker dollar and rising bond yields are all part of the detox, according to Scott Bessant, as money shifts from government spending to the private sector. So, it’s a temporary setback, he believes. But the Trump administration probably didn’t foresee the massive investment happening in Europe. What does that mean for the future direction of the US dollar and the Aussie, which is rising against it? Questions Phil puts to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of a week where tariffs will again be front and centre, maybe as soon as today. They also discuss US payrolls numbers, China’s CPI and the latest from Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E47 · Fri, March 07, 2025
Weekend Edition: How can women move faster up the corporate ladder?
Friday 28th February 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The theme for International Women’s Day this year is Accelerate Action - to move faster towards gender equality. It seems progress has slowed lately in Australia. Last year 37 percent of board members in ASX300 companies were women, but only 14% of those companies had a female chair, and there were none in the top 20 companies on the ASX. This week Phil talks to two senior executives about how they climbed the corporate ladder and the obstacles they faced: Anna Hughes, CEO of the Australian Office of Financial Management (the funding arm of the Australian Government) and Fiona Trigona, Executive General Manager, Group Treasurer, of NBN Co. What lessons can they provide for aspiring young women with an appetite to quickly move higher in business? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E46 · Thu, March 06, 2025
Europe - Cut Rates and Rearm
Friday 7th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a difficult high wire act for the ECB right now. They have cut rates as inflation comes down, but they have also forecast less growth. But, Phil suggests, it’s a strange scenario to be cutting rates whilst yields are pushing markedly higher on the back of a sharp rise in government spending. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the uncertainty of USA tariffs could also hit growth, but the experience in North America shows there’s no guarantees. They’re on, then they’re off. Meanwhile a blowout in US imports as Canadian exporters in particular sought to move goods over the border before tariffs hit. Today the focus is on non-farm payrolls. Will they show any impacts from DOGE and which direction are wages moving now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E45 · Wed, March 05, 2025
Europe’s Bonds Dive
Thursday 6th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB German bund prices have seen the biggest single day fall since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, pushing 10 year yields up30bp. It’s a similar story all over Europe, whilst movement in the US has been relatively tame. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it is all on the back of extra spending on defence and infrastructure in German, outside the limits of their discal brake. It’s all happening ahead of an expected cut by the ECB later on. Market moves were less pronounced all round in the US – equities have rebounded, helped later in the session as rumours of some backtracking on the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico turned to reality. There’s also discussion on Australia’s GDP yesterday and yesterday’s US Services ISM. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E44 · Tue, March 04, 2025
The trade war has begun, the battle over Ukraine defences continues.
Wednesday 5th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It has been an alarming 24 hours. The US has applied tariffs on Mexico and Canada, added to those already applied to China, and pulled funding for Ukraine’s war effort. Share markets have responded the world over, but not as much in the US as you might expect. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the response has been stronger in Europe, presumably on the realisation that Trump’s word should now be taken literally. The impact of a trade war -with China, Canada and Mexico all likely to retaliate, is obvious. Prices will rise and demand will fall. Markets have taken the inevitable economic slowdown as a reason for the Fed to cut more and sooner - but Ray thinks it’ll be hard to cut in such an inflationary environment. Meanwhile, the US President is forcing Europe to come together, with Germany announcing new defence spending and Europe allowing members to go beyond their fiscal limits for military spending. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E43 · Mon, March 03, 2025
An ocean apart
Tuesday 4th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Ukraine is behind a world of difference between US and European markets today. European leaders are resigned to the need to spend more to defend Ukraine and Eastern Europe, pushing bond yields higher and equities also rising sharply, led by European defence stocks. In the US stocks are sharply down, led by the tech sector, with bond yields also falling. The ISM manufacturing index fell much more than expected, with concerns about tariff uncertainty, but rising prices also showing in the data. NAB’s Skye Masters wonders whether markets have fully responded to the price data, which could be a warning sign for further inflation against a slowing economy. Today, Australia’s focus will be on retail sales, and the extent to which we could be impacted by a new agricultural tariff just announced by President Trump. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E42 · Sun, March 02, 2025
Keeping the dream alive
Monday 3rd March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were two bits of news to drive markets on Friday, First, that press conference that left us wondering whether a peace deal in Ukraine could ever happen, But the gathering of European leaders on Sunday suggests peace could be brokered, at least between Zelensky and Trump. So. the dream has been kept alive. The other news was the signs of softness in the US economy, evidenced by lower spending, a massive increase the trade deficit and a complete turnaround in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast. But, as NAB’S Tapas Strickland explains, a lot of this could be driven by pre-tariff behaviour, particularly for the import of machinery earlier than usual. There are concerns, though, that the economy might be slowing more than expected, which has nudged rate cut expectations slightly higher. Supposedly tariffs on Mexico and Canada kick off today, but we look at one way it might be avoided or at least delayed again. Plus, why this is a busy week for Australian data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E41 · Fri, February 28, 2025
Weekend Edition - Where Australia sits in a Trumpian world
Friday 28th February 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The consequences of President Trump’s policies are being felt far and wide. The US now has a transactional based approach, even with its allies on areas such as defence which were considered shared values. So, what are the repercussions for Australia? Phil talks to Dr John Kunkel, senor economics adviser at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He suggests that, whilst some of the approaches are questionable, Australia should continue to engage and, more than most, is well placed to take advantage of US growth. And if Australia has to spend more, for example, on defence, it is simply a reflection on how ill-prepared we have been in the past. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E40 · Thu, February 27, 2025
Did I say April? I meant March.
Friday 28th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump has made some more sharp moves on tariffs. The date for Mexico and Canada is now back to the middle of next week, and a further 10 percent is to be imposed on China at the same time. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend about the market reaction and how much of this will actually come to fruition. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been to the White House, but it seems Ukraine was off the agenda ahead of a ‘big deal’ supposedly being signed with Zelenskyy tomorrow. There’s also discussion on US PCE numbers and Australian capex. All very interesting, but clearly the focus is on which tariffs happen where and when (and by how much). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E39 · Wed, February 26, 2025
Tariffs: Mexico and Canada delayed, 25% coming Europe’s way
Thursday 27th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump has his first cabinet meeting and announced delays on the introduction of tariffs for Mexico and Canada (now April 2nd) and revealed how much Europe will be paying (25%) although he was a bit nonspecific on some of the detail. Nab’S Ray Attrill says the US Houe of Reps has also passed the budget, which includes big spending cuts, but tax cuts see the deficit expanding. It did impact bond yields a little, but there’s not been much market reaction to the latest tariff talk. Locally, CPI came in a little weaker than expected, helped by a continued fall in housing costs which could help bring down the next quarterly CPI result and keep the RVBA on track for a May cut Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E38 · Tue, February 25, 2025
Feeling Risky
Wednesday 26th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This morning the Aussie dollar is down whilst safe haven currencies have risen, as markets start to assess the risk of US tariffs. A lot of f the moves in the last 24 hours relate to Trump’s comments that Canada and Mexico are due to see their 25% import from 3rd March. Steel tariffs are then scheduled to follow on the 22nd, then broader reciprocal tariffs from April. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Alcoa’s CEO has warned that 100kUS industry jobs could be at risk from tariffs on steel and aluminium. So, again, the question remains, is it bravado, given China’s 10% is the only tariff imposed so far? Australia’s monthly CPI is out today, although it has a heavy goods bias, so the read won’t be particularly accurate. This time tomorrow (after the US close) NVIDIA reports their earnings results. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E37 · Mon, February 24, 2025
Markets coast as politics turns to peace talks
Tuesday 25th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a bit of buying the dip, says Sally Auld, NAB’s Chief Economist in waiting, on today’s podcast. The S&P tested 6,000 before rising sharply back and finishing well up on the day. Markets seem to be largely ignoring a spate of softer data, to which we can add the latest Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey, which showed a sharp rise in business uncertainty. Germany’s Chancellor in waiting, Fredriech Merz has indicated he wants to move quickly to increase Germany’s defence spending, ahead of the new government, as Europe continues to scramble to forge its own path in the future for Ukraine, and the region’s defence strategy. New Zealand provides the best news of the week so far. Retail sales are well up, signalling that the economy could be on the road to recovery. Whilst there’s corporate earnings this week, and a sprinkling of data today, the focus will be on peace talks, with Macron in Washington right now to give the European perspective and avoid a deal that’s too favourable for Russia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E36 · Sun, February 23, 2025
A less confident US, a more divided Germany
Monday 24th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Friedrich Merz is likely to be the new Chancellor in Germany, but the exit polls show his CDU/CSU alliance will need to negotiate with other parties to form government and stave off the influence of the far right AfD. NAB’s Rodrigo says that could take some time. Meanwhile, a string of less optimistic data releases for the US. Friday’s Services PMI was a big downside surprise, falling into contractionary territory. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey also recorded a big fall, whilst there was a uptick in inflation expectations. And there’s a move down in US shares. Rodrigo wonders whether this could all encourage Present Trump to move faster on tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E35 · Fri, February 21, 2025
Weekend Edition: Germany: Not a great time to change government
Friday 21st February 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Germans will head to the polls on Friday. It seems highly likely that the centre-right CDU/CSU will gather the most votes, but over the last few months the right win populist AfD have been closing the gap. Dr Simon Toubeau, Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at Nottingham University says it’ll be the CDU picking coalition partners in the centre and on the left, with the AfD left out in the cold. But how long will it take to arrive at a new workable government at a time when Europe is in discussions about increasing defence spending to protect Ukraine? How can Germany spend more on defence without undoing it’s self-inflicted debt-break? And where will the government stand on the idea of Eurobonds? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E34 · Thu, February 20, 2025
Walmart worried, Trump mentions China deal
Friday 20th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s not all good news from the US. Although Walmart reported strong profit growth yesterday the outlook is less certain, and there are indicators that their customer base is a section of US society that is suffering. The dollar is weaker today and shares, generally are lower. Nonetheless, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says support for President Trump remains strong and markets did respond to a comment that a new deal with China was “possible”. Locally, there were no surprises in the latest Australian employment data yesterday. Unemployment did tick higher, but job numbers also increased, some of which can be explained by seasonality factors. He senses Michelle Bullock’s appearance at the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics could be a little politically charged, as the next election nears. And politics dominates the agenda in Europe, with Germany’s federal election on Sunday. How this could influence Europe’s plans for a more unified approach to defence and energy is a key question, looked at in the Weekend Edition out later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E33 · Wed, February 19, 2025
Is ECB rate still restrictive? Aussie employment today’s focus.
Thursday 20th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets reacted strongly to comments from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel who questioned whether they have already gone as far as they need to. She wonders whether the policy rate is restrictive anymore. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about the market reaction to that, and other central bank news over the last 24 hours. The FOMC minutes suggest slower moves by the Fed, rhe RBNZ seem set to reduce the size of cuts from hereon in, and UK inflation ticked higher than expected, which won’t see the BoE moving any faster. Today the RBA (and markets) will be focused on Australia’s unemployment rate. Skye said expectations are within a very tight range,from4 to 4.1%, so anything outside that could prompt a reaction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E32 · Tue, February 18, 2025
RBA easing slowly. More cuts “no lay-down misère”
Wednesday 19th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA cut rates yesterday, but is the first one in this cycle also the last one for a little while? Governor Michele Bullock said successive cuts wasn’t the lay-down misère that markets had been expecting. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the decision, the forecasts and the commentary. There’s also discussion about UK employment, Canadian inflation and today’s RBNZ decision. Plus, the latest on Europe, where the idea of a more cohesive approach to defence seems to be gaining traction, whilst exploratory talks between the US and Russia provided nothing to get excited about. Nobody in the room looked happy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E31 · Mon, February 17, 2025
US & Europe: Divided they stand
Tuesday 18th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The whole European defence issue is becoming very complicated. Phil makes sense of it all with NAB’s Tapas Strickland on the day that US and Russian delegations meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss a cease fire deal, without Ukraine present. Worried about their ongoing reliance on the US, EU leaders (and the UK) met to discuss future defence spending, perhaps supported by Eurobonds, hitting existing bond prices and pushing European defence stocks higher. In other news, President Xi met with tech leaders, OPEC+ could be delaying production increases, Japan’s GDP growth is higher than Bank of Japan forecasts and the RBA is likely to cut rates today but NAB says it’s not as certain as markets suggest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E30 · Sun, February 16, 2025
Have markets stopped believing?
Monday 17th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You’d have thought, perhaps, that the threat of tariffs on any country charging GST on US imports (most OECD countries) would have had a string market reaction at the end of the week, but it didn’t. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether markets have stopped believing him and assumes all such proclamations and merely a prelude to some sort of negotiated deal. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to weaken and is now actually lower than when the President returned to the Oval Office. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates tomorrow, but Ray says it’s not as a clear a cut as markets are suggesting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E29 · Fri, February 14, 2025
Weekend Edition: The Irvine Fix: Simplicity, Productivity and Confidence
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week Phil talks with NAB's CEO, Andrew Irvine, discussing the uncertainty of international trade and the slow road to lower inflation. What impact does he think a global trade war (if it gets to that) could have on Australia? And what can we expect after the assumed RBA rate cut next week? The NAB chief has spent some time in Europe and talks through how our economic fundamentals stack up against the UK and Europe. Whilst Australia has many natural advantages, he points to the lack of productivity growth as the biggest issue we face. Confidence is also key he says, because that drives investment decisions. There’s also discussion about scam regulation. Phil points to the UK where banks are obliged (to an extent) to refund scam victims. Do we need the same approach or are there more significant ways of reducing the problem, particularly as AI threatens to make the issue worse. Listen in for Andrew Irvine’s take on the economy and the prospects for the year ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E28 · Thu, February 13, 2025
Trump’s Big Day includes VAT
Friday 14th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump has announced that his reciprocal tariffs could start as soon as April. The surprise has been that he is not just looking at the topline balance of trade. He considers a VAT imposed on American goods as an impost that needs to be countered. That could be bad news for the EU, the UK, Australia and other countries who have favoured indirect taxation higher income tax. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’ll be bad news from Europe, where shares rallied today on the hope that peace-deal for Ukraine will see energy costs come down. Meanwhile, US retail sales are out later, will this add to the watering down of American exceptionalism that we’ve seen this year? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E27 · Wed, February 12, 2025
Weaker dollar, rising inflation, falling US shares. Not so rock n’ roll America.
Thursday 13th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the Fed should lower interest rates to go hand in hand with tariffs, adding, “lets Rock and Roll, America!!!” It hasn’t unnerved Jerome Powell who was giving his testimony the House Economics Committee. His case for moving cautiously was evidenced by US inflation data which ticked unexpectedly higher hitting the dollar and US equities. JBWere’s Sally Auld says today is another day where markets have reversed their enthusiasm late last year for US exceptionalism. It was a strong day for the Euro and European equities, though, thanks to a positive phone call between Trump and Putin and hopes that the end is in sight for the Ukraine war. But, obviously, way too early to assume too much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E26 · Tue, February 11, 2025
EU says ‘Back atcha!’ Is Australia exempt?
Wednesday 12th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Trump administration is pushing ahead with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium. Australia still hopes it will be exempt, but there are no guarantees and, in any case, NAB’s Taylor Nugent argues there will be second-order impacts as the tariffs hit China. The EU meanwhile has promised swift retaliation, with the various trade ministers meeting today to map out their approach. Curiously, European equities are doing somewhat better than the US. The US dollar has also weakened, despite the President’s promise that the tariffs will make America rich again. The NAB Business Survey showed a slight rise in confidence, as business conditions softened. The latest small business survey in the US also back tracked a little. Today the main focus, apart from tariff news, is the latest setoff US CPI numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E25 · Mon, February 10, 2025
Trump - a man of steel (and aluminium)
Tuesday 11th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Tariffs could be back, with Donald Trump warning of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US. That would hit Mexico and Canada particularly hard, just as they thought they were off the hook (for now at least). But NAB’s Gavin Friend says there hasn’t been much more news on this since the President made the announcement on Sair Force One on Sunday. There’s some discussion about the three different classes of tariffs Trump could deploy and whether regions like Europe could be in the firing line. Gavin suggests a string representation of the new US administration at events in Europe this week could be part of a fact-finding mission to guide policy. Meanwhile, markets are positively sanguine, as they wait the next chapter in Trump’s trade plan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E24 · Sun, February 09, 2025
The Empire Strikes Back
Monday 10th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today China’s retaliatory measures against the US take effect and it seems unlikely that the event will pass without comment and threats from the US President. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Trump might also elaborate on his plans for other regions, such as the EU. Meanwhile jobs numbers from the US on Friday has pushed back expectations around the timing of cuts by the Fed, reinforced by a rise in inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey on Friday. Aside from tariff news it’s a relatively quiet week, although it’ll be interested to see how Jerome Powell faces two days of questions from parliamentarians this week, Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E23 · Fri, February 07, 2025
Weekend Edition: 2025: Less growth, but still lots of opportunity
Friday 31st Janaury 2025 PleLast year was a stellar year for growth. Kylie Willment, chief investment officer at Mercer, says they provided a 14 percent return for their superfunds in2024. She highlights a number of opportunities for this year. including growth in private markets. But how will she weather the uncertainty of a Trump administration, where radical trade policies can be implemented quickly? Will Mercer be shying away from investments in areas likely to attract tariffs, like Europe for example? And is AI a technology that will continue to dominate? Do you invest more in it, or diversity away from it? Kylie says we can ‘t expect to see the same level of growth this year, but is she willing to have a stab in the dark and predict the sort of returns we could see?ase note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E22 · Thu, February 06, 2025
US Jobs Day, Bad News Day for Britain
Thursday 7th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Non-farms payrolls data is released later today in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through some of this week’s other jobs-related data ahead of this key release. Meanwhile, good and bad news from the UK. The Bank of England cut rates by 25bp.Two members of the board wanted to go further. At the same time the bank cut its growth forecast and expects inflation to rise, extending the journey to their 2 percent target. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E21 · Wed, February 05, 2025
Trade, gold, jobs and a rate cut
Thursday 7th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US President veered away from talking about trade today and there seems to have been little market response to his thoughts on the Middle East. Instead, the focus is on the Fed and the labour market. The ADP Employment Report showed a surprising rise in new jobs, but it doesn’t follow that it’ll be reflected in non-farm payrolls on Friday. It rarely is. NAB’s Gavin Friend points out that the latest ISM Services index has US growth at a similar rate to Germany. There have been a few Fed speakers out over the last 24 hours, and NAB’s Gavin Friend reflects on their musings, particularly in relation to potential tariffs. The immediate focus now is on the Bank of England, expected to cut rates tonight. Australia’s trade numbers are also out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E20 · Tue, February 04, 2025
Tariffs. Here yesterday, gone today. What about tomorrow?
Wednesday 6th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have responded favourably to the news that tariffs have not gone ahead against Mexico and Canada although there is still a chance that there will be measures taken in relation to both countries strong balance of trade. It's likely if that happens that the EU will also be embroiled in that potential trade war. Hence markets have been positive on the latest news but there is still evidently some caution around what happens next. It means there is an unclear path forward for inflation and monetary policy which NAB’s Skye Masters says explains why there has been very little response in bond markets to all the latest tariff news. There’s also a focus now on U.S. jobs with JOLTs showing a sharp fall in job openings,then the ADP numbers out tonight ahead of non-farm payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E19 · Mon, February 03, 2025
Bark v bite : Mexico tariffs on hold
Tuesday 5th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is Donald Trump’s bark worse than his bite? At the last moment President Trump has stalled tariffs on Mexico for a month to give them time to negotiate a deal. As yet, no similar reprieve for Canada but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, it has moderated the reaction, particularly in equities and FX markets. “Time to reread The Art of the Deal,” says Ray. Does this mean future proclamations are less solid? China, meanwhile, seems more conciliatory in its response, with the Wall Street Journal suggesting they want to return to a deal made in 2020 in which they promised to buy $200billion in US goods. At the time the President called it the “greatest deal ever made”. Will that be enough to pacify him this time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E18 · Sun, February 02, 2025
Not so Tariffic
Monday 4th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Now tariffs are real, well, they will be tomorrow, with 25% imposed by the US on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on those from China, do we need to rethink expectations for global growth, inflation and monetary policy? Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland how the evaluate their monetary policy approach in light of these changes. He also discusses the economic impacts on either side of thew US border. Tariffs aside, it’s a busy week with Australian retails sales today and USD payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E17 · Fri, January 31, 2025
Weekend Edition: Housing costs - it’s all a question of supply
Friday 31st Janaury 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It doesn’t take a genius to work out that the high price of housing is a function of supply and demand. Supply just isn’t keeping up with the growth in the population. But is that the only reason? Phil presents some alternative theories to Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies. The availability of cheap credit, for example. Or government subsidies like the first-home buyer’s scheme. Peter argues these have all had little impact on long term prices, and it really does get down to supply and demand. He provides compelling evidence from home and overseas. Why this imbalance? NIMBYism? Perhaps the government's focus should be ondispelling the belief that more people mean worse local services. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E16 · Thu, January 30, 2025
The ECB, the Fed one day on and the new path for the RBA
Friday 31st January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB cut rates as expected but, in line with other central banks lately, prefers not to map out their expectations for further cuts. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the market is fairly certain that more cuts will follow. Meanwhile, NAB has brought forward the timing of the next RBA cut - now expected in February. Ken explains why the bank has changed its tune. There’s also talk about the response to yesterday’s Fed meeting and tech earnings, why gold is so strong and why the Yen has been the biggest currency mover this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, January 29, 2025
Fed and others less prepared to commit
Thursday 30th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB What do the Fed, the Riksbank and the Bank of Canada all have in common? Well, they all just made rate policy announcements, but they have all refused to provide forward guidance, or even determine where inflation is heading. JB Were’s Sally Auld says there’s a lot more uncertainty beyond domestic fundamentals, US trade policy being a significant part of that. The Fed, for example, removed the statement from last time about continued disinflationary progress. It’s been a significant session, with the Fed followed by earnings from big tech players, including Microsoft, Meta and Tesla. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E14 · Tue, January 28, 2025
Taking stock of AI, central banks, tariffs and Aussie inflation
Wednesday 29th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US tech stocks regained some of their losses yesterday, and bond yields are back up today. Why? Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether the Deepseek fears were overblown. Taylor doesn’t think so, and tech bosses will have to have a convincing story to tell as they announce earnings results later this week. Meanwhile the US dollar has gained some ground on speculation that US tariffs will start low, but increase steadily from month to month, but it remains a confusing picture with talk of greater tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Taiwanese chip components and Colombia. Today the focus will be on Aussie CPI and the rate announcements from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Riksbank. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E13 · Mon, January 27, 2025
China’s AI success spooks US investors
Tuesday 28th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US investors are reassessing the value of US AI related stocks on the realisation that China might have found a solution that can learn faster, at a lower cost, with less energy needs-and is available for all to share and use. If it lives up to the hyped it is a full-on assault on the concept of American exceptionalism led by AI and tech. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, President Trump has to respond, given the support he has been receiving from tech billionaires in the run up to the election, and since. The market response has beena move to bonds, and a rise in safe heaven currencies, like the Yen. It provides a lively start to a week that includes a number of tech earning’s results (and calls), alongside the fed and ECB meetings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E12 · Fri, January 24, 2025
Weekend Edition: The future for telcos
Friday 24th January 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Telcos, like Telstra and Optus, have been forced to change a lot over recent years. Their traditional revenues – providing phone calls and text messages – are disappearing, replaced by data access. But even that faces pressures, as people’s data demands increase at a faster rate than their willingness to pay. Luke Coleman, the newly appointed CEO of the industry body The Communications Alliance describes to Phil how telcos are changing. The major online providers, like Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, need an increasing amount of resilient, reliable data storage and processing power. Telcos have an increasing role in providing these centres, or, at the very least, the high speed fibre connections between these centres. As Luke explains, it’s growing, it has to stay on-shore, and continues to provide an opportunity for Australian investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E11 · Thu, January 23, 2025
Donald at Davos – lower oil prices and interest rates please
Friday 24th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Strickland says he was much more conciliatory concerning his relationship with China, whilst reiterating that companies the world over have a choice to produce goods in America, at the world’s lowest tax rates, or face tariffs on exports into America. He also asked OPEC to reduce oil prices, which did lower prices for a short while, but didn’t hold. There’s also discussion about the Norgesbank on the podcast today, who find themselves in a very similar position to the RBA, and the global PMIs today, possibly reinforcing the case of America exceptionalism. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E10 · Wed, January 22, 2025
AI Masterplan and earnings boosts tech
Thursday 23rd January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There weren’t massive moves in any asset classes overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says bonds were range bound with very little in the way of data, and nothing concrete from any of President Trump’s more contentious plans, particularly tariffs. It seems a review of trade will be completed on April 1st, so we could face several months of speculation before details firm up, meanwhile tech stocks have done well, in part because of strong earnings, such as Netflix after the close yesterday, as well as Trump’s proposed AI Masterplan. It’s second tier data today and tomorrow night, including Canadian retail sales and the US weekly jobless claims numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S1 E9 · Tue, January 21, 2025
The Day After, Tariff Doubts
Wednesday 22nd January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the first full day for Donald Trump in the White House and markets are already assuming tariffs will take a bit of time and perhaps won’t be as pervasive as he was initially letting on. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the market response, which has assumed, ultimately, there will be a less radical approach to trade, with tariffs used as a leverage for a better trade balance. For Europe, for example, that could mean buying more energy and defence. On his counter to inflation, through a program of ‘drill baby drill’ Gavin doubts the US oil and gas industry will be that keen on upping production and seeing prices lowered. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E8 · Mon, January 20, 2025
Liberation Day
Tuesday 21st January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Donald Trump is now the US President again. At his inauguration speech, on what he called Liberation Day, he outlined a slew of Executive Orders that he will sign in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says hours ahead of the inauguration the Wall Street Journal published a suggestion that tariffs might not be implemented from day one. That doesn’t mean they are off the agenda, however. The new President talked of an External Revenue Service that will collect “massive amount of money” from foreign countries as part of an overhaul of the trade system, that will see consumers paying less tax on goods, instead the cost will be incurred by foreign companies through tariffs and taxes. Taylor and Phil talk through some of the other plans and schemes that the new President intends to enact. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E7 · Sun, January 19, 2025
All Change
Monday 20th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US markets are closed today, so a quiet start to a potentially very volatile week, depending on what executive orders the new President issues in his first week in The White House. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was a reaction in the US dollar to a social media comment from Trump that a call with President Xi had gone well. There’s also been speculation in the Wall Street Journal about how China will respond to hefty tariffs, if imposed. If the response is to oversee the weakening of the Chinese currency, what impact will that have on the Aussie? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E6 · Fri, January 17, 2025
Weekend Edition: The Lowdown on High Employment
Friday 17th January 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The ABS Labour Market data showed a strong rise in the number of people employed in Australia. The unemployment rate at 4 percent is where it was a year ago, but more people have joined the workforce. So, why are more people taking on jobs? Phil talks to Bjorn Jarvis, branch head for Labour Statistics at the ABS. He provides some useful answers about who these new workers are and the perplexity about why Australia has a higher participation rate than many other countries. He provides some useful insights, but naturally steers away from the question everyone has - is this low level of unemployment and high participation inflationary? And, after a year around 4 percent, is there anything to suggest the unemployment rate will tick higher anytime soon? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E5 · Thu, January 16, 2025
Waller Dovish, Bessent Reassuring.
Friday 17th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded to a more dovish stance taken by the Fed’s Chrsitopher Waller, interviewed on CNBC. There was also some reassurance from the confirmation hearing into the intended Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he said exactly what markets wanted to hear, including his commitment to the independence of the Fed. Whilst strong retail data in the US supports the case for an economy doing well, UK GDP growth has stalled and the ECB minutes highlighted that monetary policy might be too aggressive in light of slow economic growth, that could cause an undershoot inflation targeting. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and what the resilience means for the direction of the RBA. And today we find out whether China hit their 5% growth target last year, alongside a number of economic indicators. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, January 15, 2025
Inflation eases and fears subside
Thursday 16th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The biggest news this morning, the ceasefire in the Middle East, has had virtually no market response. Instead, bonds and equities have rallied on the positive CPI news from the US overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the softer number has increased the prospect of more than one cut from the Fed this year. Bond yields have fallen markedly on both sides of the Atlantic. Today Australian’s employment data will be the key area of focus, particularly after the surprise fall in the unemployment rate last time. Will today’s data lead the RBA to conclude the labour market is too tight, or will they adjust their view of where the non-inflationary rate is? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E3 · Tue, January 14, 2025
US dollar stalls, the Tariff drip feed, markets await CPI
Wednesday 15th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are holding out for today’s US CPI print, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says its unlikely to move the dial much on the timing of Fed rate moves. The US dollar is weaker, for once, perhaps because of reports that Donald Trump will drip-feed tariff increases to help contain inflationary impacts. He is, meanwhile, talking up his policy on energy dominance from day one. There’s also discussion on Australian consumer confidence, Chinas credit data, US and NZ business confidence – they couldn’t be further apart – and the plethora of Fed speakers getting their oar in today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E2 · Mon, January 13, 2025
Dollar up again, yields rising - but why?
Tuesday 14th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to rise. Bond yields are also pushing higher. How long can this continue for? How much is because of rising concerns about persistent inflation, and how much is priced in for Trump uncertainty? If it’s the latter, could some of these moves quickly unwind, particularly if the new president’s bark is worse than his bite? All questions Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on today’s podcast, plus the rising price of oil, trade data from China and the latest take-outs from speakers from the ECB, BoJ and the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S9 E1 · Sun, January 12, 2025
Year kicks off with rising inflation concerns
Monday 13th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil on the podcast this morning, where the inflation outlook is very different to where we were before Christmas. Ray says Fed-speak last week was already pushing back expectations for a rate cut in the US, then a much stronger than anticipated payrolls number of Friday reaffirmed those concerns. That’s pushed yields higher and weekend equities, whilst the US dollar continues to rise, at the expense of all other major currencies. With US inflation data this week, prepare for a choppy one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E302 · Fri, December 20, 2024
Weekend Edition: The Year That Was, and the Year That Will Be
Friday 20th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a year of surprises. US exceptionalism has long been talked about, but this year it particularly exceptional, particularly in relation to the rest of the world. Growth has picked up, the dollar has strengthened, and the share market has repeatedly hit new highs, driven by Trump, tech and the AI revolution. So, what does 2025 have in store? The entire NAB Morning Call team - Sally, Skye, Ray, Rodrigo, Gavin, Tapas, Taylor and Ken - join Phil to crystal ball gaze on 2025. Will Trump push ahead with his tariff threat? What will that mean for international trade? Will China manage to find the ways and means to stimulate its domestic economy and, it not, what’s the impact on the CNY and the Aussie dollar? Could the Aussie fall below 60 US cents next year? They also discuss the path of central banks next year. Speculation has been rife this year about who will cut when and by how far. There’s no clear agreement on the neutral rate that each bank is striving for. Does that mean we’ll see smaller movement in bond market. A myriad of questions tackled in this special 40-minute episode, the final Morning Call of 2024. We’re back on January 13th, by the way. Usual time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E301 · Thu, December 19, 2024
The Fed Flow-Through and the Banks since.
Friday 20th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As we recovered in the later editions of the Morning Call yesterday there was a strong market response to the Fed yesterday -from the statement and the press conference. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, there’s been a slight reversal in equity markets today, but nothing significant, and the US dollar continues to push higher. Since then, the Bank of Japan has done as expected, but still managed to weaken the Yen, perhaps because some are now wondering whether a rate rise won’t happen until March. The Bank of England kept on hold, but with a divided board. The Norges Bank and Riksbank did as expected. Meanwhile a s surprise in yesterday’s New Zealand GDP. Good news or bad? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E300 · Wed, December 18, 2024
Hawkish cut, on the slow road to 3 percent
Thursday 19th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and they have halved the number of cuts they expect next year. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, there was only one dissenter, wanting to keep rates on hold. That seems highly likely next time, as the Fed dot plot sees just two cuts next year, eventually aiming for an expected neutral rate close to 3 percent. Also, UK CPI didn’t surprise, and the Bank of England isn’t expected to either, keeping rates on hold, as inflationary pressures, though falling, remain high. The Bank of Japan also meets today. Another case of hold, but an expectation of a small rise early next year. And New Zealand’s economy is expected to show a second quarterly decline this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E299 · Tue, December 17, 2024
UK wages push Gilts-Bund spread to historic levels
Wednesday 17th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were surprised overnight by the increased in UK wages. Alongside the weakness in European data lately, the yield spread between the UK and Germany is now at its highest level since the reunification of Germany in 1990. Other data was less surprising. US retail sales rose, but as much as many had anticipated. Canada’s inflation fell. Aussie consumer confidence was down a little, but not by much and after two months of solid growth. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the day’s news and looks ahead to the Fed meeting. What could surprise the markets this time tomorrow? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E298 · Mon, December 16, 2024
Better European service numbers, but US more so
Monday 16th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US growth continues to lead the way. The latest PMIs showed services growth for Europe and the UK, but not as much as the US. In all cases, though, there’s a fall in the manufacturing PMI. The US strength helped push equities higher - with new highs for the NASDAQ and S&P - and strengthened the US dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher. The data doesn’t stop flowing, even though it’s only a week till Christmas. UK employment data today might do little to influence the Bank of England this week, but if wages growth remains high it’ll support their reticence to cut too quickly. Australian consumer confidence is out today as well. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E297 · Sun, December 15, 2024
Five central banks in the last gasp before Christmas
Monday 16th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed and four other central banks meet this week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and the Riksbank will cut rates, whilst the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Norges Bank will all keep rates on hold. Today PMIs are released, which are likely to show a widening gap between US exceptionalism and European gloom. France has a new Prime Minister and Moody’s joining the agencies downgrading their credit rating, assuming the government will be able to do very little to reduce debt in the short term. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E296 · Fri, December 13, 2024
Weekend Edition: Rate cuts will boost the Australian psyche, says NAB Chief
Friday 6th December 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Next year the Australian economy will see slow and measured improvement, according to NAB's CEO Andrew Irvine. It’ll be boosted, though, by the first rate cut, which Andrew says will have a significant impact on the psyche of businesses and consumers. In his first appearance on The Morning Call the NAB boss talks about housing affordability, productivity and how NAB will stand up against its competitors in the banking sector. He gives his views on where Australia will stand in five years’ time, the opportunities we need to engage with, and what’s holding the country back. In many cases he shares his observations of Australia in relation to Canada, a country he knows well. When it comes to productivity and housing, he thinks we can learn a few things. But he admits, the coffee is a lot better here. Join Phil talking to Andrew Irvine in his first at-length interview since taking the role. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E295 · Thu, December 12, 2024
ECB cuts, SNB more so. And Australia’s unexpected unemployment fall.
Friday 13th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today, NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the market response to the unexpected fall in Australian unemployment numbers yesterday, with the drop most significant in Victoria. The Swiss National Bank provided another surprise, with a 50bp rate cut, with a 25bp cut from the ECB, accompanied by lacklustre growth forecasts for the next few years. Today, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter is speaking at a lunch in Adelaide, with a Q&A session where the media will undoubtedly ask about the fall in unemployment and how that impacts their rate cut trajectory. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E294 · Wed, December 11, 2024
All systems go for a Fed cut next week
Thursday 12th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities pushed higher today as US CPI provided no surprises, or any reason for the fed to deviate from their expected rate cut next week. The Bank of Canada managed a 50bp rate cut yesterday, but it’s likely that cuts will be less frequent and smaller now, as they try to find the neutral rate. The Swiss National Bank, managing an economy that suffered very little from the blight of inflation, could well engineer a 50bp cut today as well. Meanwhile, NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests the ECB, who are expected to cut again today, could move into stimulatory territory next year. Locally, all eyes will be on Australia’s employment data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E293 · Tue, December 10, 2024
RBA. The first dove of Christmas.
Wednesday 11th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have responded to what some have seen as a dovish pivot by the RBA, in the wording of their statement yesterday and the post-meeting press conference. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says there are still inflation concerns, hence NAB is sticking with its expectation that a cut probably won’t happen till May. Still, the Aussie and NZ dollars both took a hit yesterday and are still well down this morning. The US dollar, meanwhile, has been boosted by a sharp rise in small business sentiment in the latest NFIB survey. It’s clearly a Trump bounce. Will his delivery match expectations? And the second dove of Christmas? Well, presumably the Bank of Canada. You can’t get more dovish than a 50bp rate cut, which is what’s expected tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E292 · Mon, December 09, 2024
Another China Rescue Plan
Tuesday 10th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Beijing has announced more in the way of fiscal and monetary stimulus to get the Chinese economy back on its feet. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s still light on the detail, but it caught markets a little off-guard, with nothing expected till later in the week. The response was most pronounced in Chinese equities, but oil is also higher and so is the Australia and NZ dollars. Today the RBA is likely to announce that rates won’t budge, but the detail will come from the press conference that follows. The NAB Business Survey is also out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E291 · Sun, December 08, 2024
A week of cuts and uncertainty
Monday 9th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We can expect three central banks to cut rates this week, and one to hold steady. No surprises that the RBA is the one firmly expect to stand pat, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Canada saw pricing increase for a 50bpcut by the Bank of Canada this week. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls also increased slightly expectations for a 25bp cut by the Fed next week. US CPI numbers are out middle of the week, but Fed speakers won’t be able to comment with the pre-meeting lockdown in place. The Aussie dollar was the worst performer of the major currencies last week, in part because of Aussie GDP numbers, but also because of global geopolitical uncertainty. There’s even more of that now with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the unknown implications from of the power vacuum it creates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E290 · Fri, December 06, 2024
Weekend Edition: With equities, is it a year for playing it safe at home?
Friday 6th December 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Have Australians who ignored the rise of the Magnificent Seven lost out? NAB’s Gemma Dale says they will have still done pretty well with Australian equities, which have performed better than many other parts of the world, like the UK and Europe, for example. But how will investors cope with the uncertainties of the next 12 months? How do you plan for Trump’s trade policies, subsequent changes to supply chains and the rising US dollar? How do you look for winners before they hit the big time? Or do you, as many Aussie investors tend to, simply look for opportunities and buy the dip. Phil talks to Gemma about the year we’ve been through for Australian equity investors and what the next year will bring. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E289 · Thu, December 05, 2024
Payrolls, Paris and OPEC+
Thursday 28th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US releases non-farm payrolls data later today, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says if anything is going to shift expectations for a cut by the Fed this month it will be the upcoming CPI data. Meanwhile words from Jerome Powell, that the economy was doing better than expected, can be added to the list of reasons for a pause in the new year. A new PM for France hasn’t been decided yet but will be in the next few days. The turmoil just adds to the European woes, with more lacklustre data over the last 24 hour. And OPEC+, as expected, has pushed back the increase in production and the length of the ramp in those increases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E288 · Wed, December 04, 2024
Australia’s slow growth, weaker dollar
Wednesday 4th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australia’s growth numbers yesterday were a bit slower than most had expected, although in-line with NAB’s expectations. Nonetheless it was below consensus and NAB’s Gavin Friend says that was brought forward expectations for a rate cut, although that could easily slip back. The short-term impact has been a weaker Aussie dollar against a US dollar which itself falling after a downside surprise on the Services ISM read overnight. A rare bit of soft US economic data, says Gavin. As we pressed record today France was going to vote on the government’s no-confidence motion, whilst Jerome Powell was taking part in a panel discussion that markets have been holding out for. We cover off some of the early take-outs from both. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E287 · Tue, December 03, 2024
Crises ignored
Wednesday 4th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a hectic session for geopolitics but, as NAB’s Skye Masters discusses, it hasn’t had much impact on markets. There wasn’t much of a reaction to the imposition of martial law in Korea, which was shortly afterwards overturned by parliament, but placing a question mark over the political life of the President. France has it’s no-confidence vote today, but European uncertainty seems to be priced in. In the US markets paid more attention to the Fed’s Christopher Waller than the rise in job openings and quits. Tonight, Jerome Powell could seal-the-deal as far, as markets are concerned, for a December rate cut. Locally, Australian GDP is the key number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E286 · Mon, December 02, 2024
Vive la révolution (of sorts)
Tuesday 3rd December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Will Marine Le Penne push all the way to bring down the Barnier government in France? She said on Monday she would support a n confidence vote in the government but, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, that would force a more constrained default budget, offering none of what her National Party has been fighting for. Markets are responding to the possibility of a French government collapse this week. Elsewhere, US ISM’s overnight showed the continued strength in the US economy, raising questions about why the need to rush into cuts. Markets are expecting that if there is a rate cut this month, it’ll almost certainly be followed by a pause. Plus, what can we take out from Australian data yesterday, including stronger retail sales. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E285 · Sun, December 01, 2024
Back to work, waiting for jobs numbers
Monday 2nd December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US is back at work after a long Thanksgiving weekend for many, back just in time for the week of non-farm payroll and other US jobs data, ahead of the Fed this month. Retail sales numbers will be highlight for Australian data today, with NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggesting Friday’s business credit provided further evidence that the RBA’s rates are currently not restrictive, making cuts even less likely in the short term. Also, on Friday hotter than expected Tokyo CPI data could encourage the Bank of Japan to move faster on a rate hike. Plus, the latest download on Trump policies, threats and claims. And today could be decision day for the French budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E284 · Fri, November 29, 2024
Weekend Edition: Return of the Japanese Carry Trade
Friday 29th November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . A weak Yen and low interest rates had been fuelling the Japanese Carry Trade, as retail investors – the Mrs Watanabes – prospered from higher returns overseas. They took a hit from the rising Yen in the third quarter of this year, but Harry Ishihara says they are back, just a little more cautious this time. Harry is a macro strategist for Macrobond and Japan Exchange Group. He talks to Phil about the importance of Japanese retail investors, the continued confidence in Japan’s future, with strong inward investment, and the challenges posed by the new Trump administration. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E283 · Thu, November 28, 2024
Slow down and split in two
Friday 29th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The message from the RBA continues to be that there is no rush to drop rates. NAB’s Tapas Strickland highlights a chart presented by Michelle Bullock last night, which showed Australia’s interest rate compared to other leading economies, relative to the expected nominal neutral rate. And the decision on how much and when will be made by a new group next year, as the board of the RBA splits in two, with one responsible purely for monetary policy decisions. Inflation in Germany has slowed a little, but probably not enough for the ECB to make a 50bp cut. Europe continues to be in a world of worry, particularly France, where 10-year yields momentarily fell below Greek yields for the first time ever. But good news for Americans, whose Thanksgiving dinner will have been a bit cheaper this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E282 · Wed, November 27, 2024
Talking Turkey
Thursday 28th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A weaker dollar, falling share prices and very light trade. It’s close to the end of the month and Thanksgiving today in the US. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns rto the Morning Call to give is take on the market moves overnight on the back of largely unsurprising data from the US. There’s also discussion about Gov Orr’s presser after yesterday’s 50bp cut for the RBNZ, suggesting another big cut might be due in February. It’s the opposite message coming from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, suggesting there’s less room for cuts from the ECB. All eyes and ears will be on the RBA’s Michelle Bullock tonight, given she is never backwards incoming forward. Will she be Talking Turkey on Thanksgiving? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E281 · Tue, November 26, 2024
Minutes, Tariffs and a Ceasefire
Wednesday 27th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB No big surprises in the FOMC minutes out this morning, with the Fed saying it continues to be data dependent, and that could mean a pause, or faster cuts. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are still split on whether a cut will happen in December, just as there’s an outside chance the RBNZ will cut by 75bp this week. The two big news stories of the morning though – a likely ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, and announcements of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from day one of the presidency. Will either actually come to pass? Or last long? The widening spread in bond yields between France and Germany demonstrates the heightening concerns over French politics, even though Germany is hardly the “poster child” says Sally. Meanwhile, the latest Consumer Confidence survey shows the US is in quite a good place right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E280 · Mon, November 25, 2024
The Bessent ‘Safe Hands’ Bonanza
Tuesday 26th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have reversed their position a little for the first time since the US election results. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reflects the response to Scott Benson as the likely new Treasury head, who is seen as a more moderate, safe pair of hands, who won’t impose blanket tariffs. That news has strengthened the Euro and helped the share price of US mid-caps who might have seen input prices rise if such a radical policy was imposed quickly. The day’s other positive news was the possibility of an Israel Hezbollah ceasefire. There’s nothing more concrete than positive words from the White House national security spokesperson, but it was enough to drive oil prices significantly lower. Rodrigo also tells us why tomorrows FOMC minutes will be particularly important, and why the latest NZ data won’t change the course of the RBNZ this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E279 · Sun, November 24, 2024
More US exceptionalism
Monday 25th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Friday highlighted the difference between US exceptionalism and European pessimism. NAB's Ray Attrill explains how PMIs were higher than expected in America, lower than anticipated for the EU. Phil asks how much of the difference is down to anticipated impacts of Trump’s tariff agenda? With political unrest there seems no easy way for Europe to dig itself out of the malaise, short of reading Mario Draghi’s growth proposals. They also talk about the moves in market expectations for rate cuts, for the US, UK and the ECB, as well as for the RBNZ this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E278 · Fri, November 22, 2024
Weekend Edition: Going Private
Friday 22nd November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The private credit market is growing in volume with no signs of abating. Brad Calleja, Executive Corporate Finance at NAB, says its difficult to put a precise figure on the size of the space because not all deals are visible, but it’s estimated globally at between $2 and $3 trillion. So, what is it and why is it growing so quickly? Brad explains that it is providing a vehicle for institutional funds, such as super funds, to achieve higher returns from higher risk, longer duration investments that sit outside the risk profiles of most banks. If that’s the case, what’s the role of a bank like NAB in private credit markets? Listen in to understand more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E277 · Thu, November 21, 2024
We want more
Friday 22nd November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Are NVIDIA investors a bit like Oliver Twist? They want more. That’s the take of NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on the Morning Call. The data was all second tier and none of it changed market expectations around the Fed’s path of rate cuts. US jobless claims were down, but continued claims were up, suggesting employers are letting less people go, but at the same time are not recruiting more. Positive news on housing, which can be choppy, was offset by gloomy news in the Philly Fed manufacturing outlook. So, it was a mixed picture overnight. The upshot, we need more solid data to get a clearer picture. Meanwhile, in the uncertainty, Bitcoin careers closer to the $100k mark. And will the promise of Roast Turkey drive up shares next week- which often happens on Thanksgiving week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E276 · Wed, November 20, 2024
Spitting chips
Thursday 21st November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s no been much in the way of data to give markets any direction. Ahead of the NVIDIA results equities were trading lower, with the US dollar up slightly, and no big moves in oil. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland why there wasn’t more of aa reaction to events in Eastern Europe, with Ukraine firing US and UK supplied missiles into Russian territory, and the US, Italy, Spain and Greece temporarily closing their embassies in Kyiv, fearing an imminent attack. Meanwhile, UK inflation was a little higher than expected, reducing further the chance of a pre-Christmas cut from the Bank of England. There’s also been a claim that labour data in the UK has significantly overestimated unemployment. Today, Europe’s consumer confidence numbers, US existing home sales and initial jobless claims, as well as the Philly Fed business outlook. And the RBA’s Michelle Bullock is talking at 7 tonight in Sydney at the Women in Payments Conference. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E275 · Tue, November 19, 2024
Markets nervous as Russia drops the N word (again)
Wednesday 20th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There as a certain amount of nervousness as Ukraine fired into Russian territory overnight and Russia revised its so-called Nuclear Doctrine, which lowers the requirements for a nuclear strike on a foreign power. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says the risk sentiment was short-lived, and markets are now focusing back on earnings results (NVIDIA tomorrow) and central bank expectations. The latter have been influenced a little by Canada’s strong CPI numbers, a lot of words from the Bank of England, the latest RBA minutes and, to come today, negotiated wages for the Eurozone. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E274 · Mon, November 18, 2024
Firing over the line
Monday 18th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil increased in price today. At first glance you might assume this was a response to the news that President Biden has authorised the use of US weapons to be fired by Ukraine into Russian territory. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says prices really rose in response to the news that the CEO of Liberty Energy - a company focused on fossil fuels - has been nominated as head of the Energy Department. Curious that the prospect of more oil wouldn’t bring prices down. Rodrigo also talks to Phil about European trade and wages data, NZ PSI and PPI numbers from yesterday, US housing and Canadian inflation. And self-drive cars, maybe a step closer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E273 · Sun, November 17, 2024
Powell the Grinch?
Monday 18th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just after Friday’s podcast Jerome Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates, raising doubts as to whether a cut in December was going to happen. Market pricing fell, to the point where it’s now closer to a 50:50 chance. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what was said, and the mixed US data from Friday, that included strong retail sales and an (unbelievably) strong increase in manufacturing in the NY Fed survey. China’s data on Friday also gave some hope. This week, Taylor suggests, markets will have more words from central bank speakers and the like, rather than hard numbers to go on. It’s going to be one of those weeks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E272 · Fri, November 15, 2024
Weekend Edition: A new world reorder, with FT’s Martin Wolf
Friday 15th November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . How different will the world be after another term of Trump as US President? Will he grow the size of the US economy, or will his policies simply add to domestic inflation, meaning higher interest rates for longer. Will he start a global trade war, forcing companies to replicate their production facilities in each local market? Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He is not optimistic about the prospects for the world economy. Phil talks to him about the ramifications for regions like Europe and China, where growth prospects are already uncertain. How do they adapt to working with, or without, Fortress America? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S3 E271 · Thu, November 14, 2024
Wait a little longer
Friday 15th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian unemployment numbers just don’t want to move. JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why NAB now expects a cut from the RBA to be delayed beyond the first quarter of 2025 and might not even happen next year at all. It’ll be interesting to hear the spin from Fed speakers in the US now, after lower-than-expected job claims and a higher than anticipated PPI. After a December cut could the resilience in the economy coupled with Trump policies, delay any further cuts. Plus a preview of our Weekend Edition with FT’s Martin Wolf. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E270 · Wed, November 13, 2024
Inflation in no hurry to come down, and neither is the US dollar
Thursday 14th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to push higher, with the AUD one of the main casualties. The PBoC is also clearly concerned about the weakness on the CNY. It’s not just the dollar that is staying high - US inflation is taking a while to come down. The CPI number overnight was as expected, though markets seem to be reacting as though they are relieved it wasn’t higher. As a result, pricing for a December rate cut increased slightly. Locally, the Australian Wage price Index slowed a little more than expected, but not enough of a move to change the timing for the RBA. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss all this, plus all the rest of today’s market news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E269 · Tue, November 12, 2024
A brighter future for optimists
Wednesday 13th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US markets continue to embrace the optimism of a pro-growth Trump presidency, even as equities back off their highs a little in this session. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to strengthen and the latest Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey shows investors exposure to equities has hit the highest level since 2013. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil today to talk through the latest US market action, as well as yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Westpac Consumer Confidence Survey, both of which showed an uptick in sentiment. Today’s big number is US CPI, but can it really give us an idea of the direction of travel when so much depends on Trump’s policies early next year? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E268 · Mon, November 11, 2024
Pricing for Trump. But is it rational?
Tuesday 12th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to rise, mid-cap equities are doing well, Bitcoin is pushing higher, so are Tesla shares. With little in the way of new data releases, and the US bond market closed for Veterans Day, most market moves relate to expectations on what Trump might do in his second Presidency. Phil asks if the moves are rational. It’s too early to be rational, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, but NAB has issued new FX forecasts based on the assumption that the new administration will quickly push ahead with its tariff promises. That means the Aussie dollar won’t reach 70 us cents next year, not helped by the deepening weakness in the Chinese economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E267 · Sun, November 10, 2024
The Morning After the Week Before
Monday11th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets might be waiting for signs of the speed and magnitude of Trump’s expected import tariffs, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says businesses are already indicating their response - building up inventories in the US whilst they determine as they consider whether to move more production to the US. China’s stimulus underwhelmed on Friday, focusing on reducing local government debt rather than provided direct stimulus to businesses and consumers. It’s a busy week for Australian data, with labour market numbers out on Thursday and the wage price index for Q3 on Wednesday, plus the NAB Business Survey tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E266 · Fri, November 08, 2024
Weekend Edition: Are we moving fast enough to tackle Australia’s housing crisis?
Friday 1st November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia faces a rising tide of homelessness as rents push higher, out of the reach of many lower income earners. According to Rebecca Pinkstone, chief executive of Homes NSW, in her state alone there are 57,000 people on the register, looking for a home. Rents in Sydney and surrounds are often considerably more than a state pension. Supply is a big part of the problem, with developers reluctant to commit to the growth required because they face rising material costs and skills shortages. Subsidising existing rental simply maintains the elevated prices for properties. And, as Phil points out, it’s not just low income earners hit by the housing crisis. Household sizes in Australia are well above those of comparable economies, as children wait longer to move out. Phil asks, is it just about supply? Or is it time to address the government policies that have elevated prices for decades? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E265 · Thu, November 07, 2024
Too slow for Trump?
Friday 8th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed cut rates as expected today by 25bp, after the big 50bp cut last time. But there’s one more meeting scheduled before Christmas and JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are evenly split as to whether that’ll mean another cut this year. The message from the Fed today was that the risks are balanced when it comes to achieving their employment and inflation goals, but what about the elephant in the room? Will Trump’s agenda drive inflation higher and delay the speed of cuts. That seems to be happening in the UK, where the Bank of England cut rates as expected, but the impact of the budget could delay further cuts. One more this year seems unlikely. Today’s big news is likely to be the announcement on fiscal stimulus from China’s National People‘s Congress, most likely before the Sydney close says Sally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E264 · Wed, November 06, 2024
Them and the rest of us
Thursday 7th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Meanwhile, will the news have any impact on the Fed and Bank of England, both meeting in the next 24 hours. Not this time round says Gavin, but there’s no doubt Trump’s promise of further tax cuts could have an impact on the terminal rate in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E263 · Tue, November 05, 2024
Long time coming
Wednesday 6th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Polls start closing in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Virginia, which closes late morning Australia time, was called by Associated Press within 36 minutes last time. So, we could start to get a picture of how each candidate is faring by lunchtime today, even if the final outcome could take time – possibly weeks. Something else that could take longer than originally envisaged, a cut by the RBA. Australia’s approach with shallower hikes means there’s less rush to cut rates and February is looking a little less likely. Taylor talks through the points from yesterday’s RBA meeting. Plus, why today is an important one for New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E262 · Mon, November 04, 2024
Wafer thin difference
Tuesday 5th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have responded to a poll over the weekend which showed a swing in favour of Kamala Harris in Iowa. It was driven, apparently, by more older women expressing a preference. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Iowa isn’t normally considered a swing state, so there is the question about whether this could be replicated across the country. But we haven’t seen a massive unwinding of positions that you might associate with the Trump trade. The RBA meets today and there will be a lot of focus on what’s in and out of the statement, and whether there’s a more concerted effort to drive market expectations further back into mid-2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E261 · Sun, November 03, 2024
Jobs take back seat as election drives the markets
Momnday 4th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Mid-morning Wednesday Australia time the polls close in the US and soon after, hopefully, the world will know the choice made from two very different political and economic agendas. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this uncertainty is showing through in the data. It’s been blamed for the fall in the US manufacturing index on Friday, for example. It perhaps also explains why there was a limited response to Friday’s non-farm payrolls data, which showed an unexpected contraction in employment growth. Also today, is NVIDIA about to overtake Apple as the highest valued company on the planet? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E260 · Fri, November 01, 2024
Weekend Edition: Has affordability finally hit home price growth?
Friday 1st November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australian house prices have defied logic. Core Logic’s Eliza Owen says when interest rates rise you should see asset prices come down. In theory. Yet the last rate rise, in November last year, coincided with a fresh record high in home values. Now homes in NSW have increased in value for 20 consecutive months. Until now. Today’s data, for October, shows the growth streak in Sydney has been broken. Eliza joins Phil to break down the detail on trends in home prices across the country. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E258 · Thu, October 31, 2024
US shares weaker on tech forecasts. UK markets judge budget.
Friday 1st November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Some big market moves overnight, with sharp falls in US equities. Markets are clearly not impressed with the forecasts that came with the strong earnings results this week. In the UK bond yields are markedly higher, particularly at the front end. NAB’s Skye Masters says there are concerns that the extra spending could boost inflation. The focus now is on tonight’s US jobs data, before a week that includes THAT election. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E257 · Wed, October 30, 2024
Happy Hawkish Halloween
Thursday 31st October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were a few reasons for central banks to be cautious about the speed of the cuts to interest rates. Europe is growing a little faster than expected, whilst German inflation kicked back up a little. Whilst US GDP is weaker it is being held up by strong levels of consumption. Australia’s CPI didn’t surprise, so there’s no reason for the FRBA to change the expected path of rate cuts. And the UK Chancellor announced a budget high on tax hikes, but also higher on borrowing. What impact will that have on the Bank of England? NAB’s Gavin Friend interprets a day rich on data - not forgetting the latest tech earnings - which much more to come. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E256 · Tue, October 29, 2024
Jobs, growth, inflation and tech earnings.
Wednesday 30th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Something for everyone today. On the jobs front US openings are down, whilst unemployment in Japan fell. On growth we have the US GDP number today, after the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast for Q3 was revised down. Europe’s GDP numbers are released today along with CPI for various European countries, and for the Eurozone as a whole, today and tomorrow. More significantly, Australia’s quarterly CPI read is released this morning. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether it’ll have much impact on the timing of cuts from the RBA. Then there’s the tech earnings - Alphabet today, Meta and Microsoft tomorrow, Apple the day after. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E255 · Mon, October 28, 2024
Meta Search, Oil Drops, Rising Yields and Kamala’s Last Stand
Tuesday 29th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As suggested yesterday oil prices fell sharply in this session as markets breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Middle East war didn’t escalate further after the Israeli attack on Iran. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to explain the continued rise in bond yields. Could a fear of inflation reigniting under a Trump presidency be part of the pricing? Kamala Harris makes her last major speech in Washington tonight, one week out from the election. We are a day away from Alphabet’s earnings results, but there are reports that Meta might be launching its own AI search engine, to reduce its reliance on Google and Bing, although no spike in Meta shares on the rumours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E254 · Sun, October 27, 2024
A big week for data and tech earnings
Monday 28th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB After that leap in margins for Tesla last week, all eyes will be on a plethora of big-tech earnings this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it could be a volatile week, with the VIX index pushing over 20 on Friday. It’s been a busy weekend with the Japanese election unlikely to bring an outright majority. What does that mean for the BoJ? China released data showing even more of an economic slowdown, along with dates for the National People’s Congress which could ratify a rescue plan. This week there’s a lot of data to come, including US AND European Q3 GDP and US payrolls at the end of the week. Locally, all eyes will be on Australian inflation data middle of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E253 · Fri, October 25, 2024
Weekend Edition: Harris or Trump. Who wins. What changes?
Friday 18th October 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . They are neck and neck in the polls, so the US election could go either way, although markets are responding, to an extent, to betting odds which are showing Trump is the clear winner. The ABC’s John Barron reckons you have to be careful about betting odds. They often represent wishes rather than rational decisions. And polling data also has its weaknesses, as research companies struggle to find representative respondents. So, who will win and what changes if its Trump? Would he really push on with 20 percent tariffs on all US imports and the deportation of millions of undocumented migrants? John knows US politics well. He co-hosts the ABC’s Americast, and has written several books on the subject, including a history of US political campaigns called ‘Vote For me’ . On today’s Weekend edition he joins Phil to provide interesting insights into a man who is more bent on power than policy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E252 · Thu, October 24, 2024
Life in the Slow Lane
Friday 25th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been small moves up and down in the latest PMIs. Germany saw a slight rise in services and manufacturing, but the Europe wide services number fell slightly. And the UK’s star has dimmed a little, as its manufacturing fell quite sharply, alongside a drop in the services number. Catherine Mann from the BoE gave a clear indication she won’t be voting for a cut in a hurry, and RBNZ’s Governor Orr tried hard to talk down the case for further big cuts. Could 50bp be off the table? And Donald Trump pushes ahead in the latest WSJ poll. Listen to our Weekend Edition for more on what a Trump presidency could look like. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E251 · Wed, October 23, 2024
Canada cuts. ECB sends mixed messages.
Thursday 24th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been another session of a rising US dollar, yields climbing a little and falling equities. Nab’S Ken Crompton says there have been some weak earnings results that are adding to cautions in the share market. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50bp, as expected, hence there wasn’t a great deal of market reaction. The question is, will the ECB follow suit? They are below their inflation target, but Christine Lagarde tried to set a note of caution to the markets during her talk in Washington. Global PMIs are out today, but no big changes are expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E250 · Tue, October 22, 2024
All quiet, before the storm
Wednesday 23rd October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB What do markets do when there’s no big data releases and a slump in earnings results of interest? Not much is the answer. Phil talks to JBWere’s Sally Auld about another quiet session, with markets clearly hesitant about the US election, the pace of Fed easing and the price of equities. The steepening of the yield curve could be a reflection of an expected Trump victory. They also discuss the revisions in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook, which has basically upped US growth a little at the expense of just about everybody else. But they note, the risk is to the downside. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E249 · Mon, October 21, 2024
Not sure where to go
Tuesday 22nd October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Some curious market moves this season with very little around in terms of data. So, with no hard facts to drive he agenda, what’s going on? Phil asks whether, as the election in the US draws nearer, whether we are seeing more indications of a developing Trump trade. It’s not obvious, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, with equities taking a hit, in particular financials and health, that are normal participants in the trump trade. Gold is pushing ever higher though, presumably a sign of nervousness ahead of the big day. Phil and Ray also talk about Andrew Hauser’s comments about RBA cuts yesterday and look ahead to another quiet day today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E248 · Sun, October 20, 2024
Fine China. Handle with Care.
Monday 21st October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB China’s CSI300 rose sharply on Friday. There was some positive data released, although in general the picture shows an economy that is slowing, held back by falling house prices. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the interest in shares on Friday was driven by policies aimed at share buybacks. Japan’s inflation provided more ammunition for hikes, eventually, whilst UK retail sales provided another reason for the Bank of England to avoid rushing into cuts. This week the Bank of Canada will announce its next rate cut, and the RBA’s Andrew Hauser gives a fireside chat where he will no doubt reiterate that they too see no need to rush into cuts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E247 · Fri, October 18, 2024
Weekend Edition: The asymmetric battle
Friday 18th October 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . NAB is in the thick of it, along with the rest of corporate Australia, and the government, fighting cyber-crime. This month is cyber-crime month and the message for consumers is clear - keep devices and software up to date, use strong and unique passwords and recognise and report phishing. Meanwhile, what’s being done behind the scenes to beat the criminals? Chris Sheehan, General Manager for NAB group investigations, says it’s an asymmetrical battle. That doesn’t mean NAB is losing, just that there must be constant awareness of what’s coming next. Does that mean teams of NAB people are lurking in the dark web, posing as wrongdoers? And what’s the risk that, despite all best efforts, the cyber criminals win and the whole system comes crashing down? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E246 · Thu, October 17, 2024
ECB cuts rates, more to come soon?
Friday18th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB has cut rates with Christine Lagarde saying the disinflationary process is on track. NAB’s Gavin Friend says since the last meeting inflation has come down, and lower growth will be giving the bank confidence that it will continue in that direction. Nonetheless, base effects might see a temporary rise in core and headline rates that make it difficult to signal back-to-back cuts, even though the weakness in the economy could well demand it. Meanwhile strong jobs data In Australia should be the final nail for those looking for another RBA cut this year. Similarly, strong retail sales growth in the USA demonstrates a resilient economy that can survive without rapid rate cuts. On that basis could we see the Fed move just once before Christmas? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E245 · Wed, October 16, 2024
Sneaking in another before Christmas?
Thursday 17th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation is slowing faster than expected in the UK. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton whether this means the Bank of England could cut twice before Christmas? Markets have fully priced a cut from the ECB later today, the question is, what next and when? Australian employment numbers and US retail sales are out today, along with a further announcement on housing and debt from the China. Ken says it’s another “drip feed in the ocean of fiscal stimulus” – are markets prepared to be disappointed this time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E244 · Tue, October 15, 2024
Tariffs. The most beautiful word.
Wednesday 16th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were sizeable moves in various asset classes over the last 24 hours, and that was before a revealing Trump interview with Bloomberg’s Editor in Chief. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about a day that has seen oil lower on expectations that Israel won’t strike Iranian oil installations, shares fall as a report suggests they are overweight and concerns about AI chip demand and possible restrictions on exports from the US. Plus, another shift in sentiment around China’s support plans. NZ and UK CPI are out today. In New Zealand it is expected to support the case for faster cuts, whereas the UK number is likely to give the Bank of England a bit more time to move. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E243 · Mon, October 14, 2024
Stuck in a rut over the ditch
Tuesday 15th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB New Zealand’s Performance of Services Index stuck yesterday at 45.7 for September, marking the seventh month in contraction. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the only good news you can take for that is that it the downturn isn’t speeding up. In China the latest trade numbers were also a disappointment, highlighting the need for a stimulus from the government. In the US equities pushed higher. Phil asks, it can’t all be earnings season, can it? The question is, are some shares buoyed by the return of the Trump Trade, as the former President is experiencing a resurgence with the bookies. Today bank lending for Europe and employment and wages for the UK are the two key bits of data, along with Canadian inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E242 · Sun, October 13, 2024
Hold on, it’s coming
Monday 14th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As predicted by Tapas on The Morning Call last week there was no definitive plan fiscal plan presented by China’s Ministry of Finance on Saturday. As suggested, it will need to be ratified by the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, which is likely to happen before the end of the month. But NAB’s Ray Attrill explains some of the plans that were outlined, including giving local authorities access to earmarked cash that could help stimulate the economy almost immediately. There’s also a look at last week’s US PPI number and what that, in conjunction with the hotter than anticipated CPI number, could mean for the path of rate cuts by the Fed before Christmas. Might there just be one cut to come? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E241 · Fri, October 11, 2024
Weekend Edition: A Suttle World Tour
Friday 11th October 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Phil Suttle is an economist who has worked at JP Morgan, the Bank of England, the Fed, the World Bank, the IIF, Barclays Capital and Tudor Investments. These days he provides his own observations and analysis to paying subscribers, saying he enjoys the independence that provides. He really can say what he thinks. So, what does he think about the world right now? With the US less than a month away from a Presidential election, how will the US economy respond to the two distinctive approaches of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris? He also talks to Phil about the differences in approaches that have been taken by central banks, including the RBNZ and RBA, the chance of a China recovery and what that means for the west, and the dire state of the German economy. It’s a whirl wind tour with Phil (and Phil), with so much more to see that we’ll have to do it again sometime soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E240 · Thu, October 10, 2024
Coming down slowly
Friday 11th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB After stronger than expected jobs numbers last week, the CPI data overnight shows inflation isn’t coming down quite as quickly as expected. The combination might suggest there’s less of a rush for the Fed to cut rates but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there hasn’t been significant moves on the pricing of Fed cuts since the inflation numbers. It will make the words from the upcoming “bevvy” of Fed speakers perhaps more interesting than usual. The other significant event to look out for is the announcement from China’s Finance Minister at the weekend. Tapas believes there’s reason to suggest it will be another disappointment. And with the Israeli security cabinet meeting just as we record today’s episode, could they be ready to retaliate? No doubt part fo the reason for the rise in oil and gold prices this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E239 · Wed, October 09, 2024
Heavy Weather
Thursday 10th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Storm Milton hit the Florida coast at 1am ET. Despite that, and the continued risk of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities, oil prices fell overnight. Obviously China demand is part of the picture here, but another ‘announcement’ is expected from Beijing this weekend. In the latest FOMC minutes it is clear there was agreement that the risk of inflation had diminished, whilst the downside risk to employment had increased. The latest payrolls data suggest that downside risk is less clear and JBWere’s Sally Auld wonders whether all those voting for a large cut were entirely convinced of it. Maybe some were cajoled by Jerome Powell. It was a clearer picture for the RBNZ yesterday and Sally wonders whether the next cut will be even bigger. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E238 · Tue, October 08, 2024
Brassed off after a Golden Week
Wednesday 9th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets with any China connection have responded negatively to news from the National Development Reform Commission. An announcement was expected, and most will have assumed it would include a large swag of spending from the three trillion Yuan that was believed to have been earmarked for fiscal stimulus. But, as NAB’s Ken Crompton discusses with Phil, all they did was brought forward 200 billion Yuan from next year’s budget. They also discuss yesterday’s NAB business survey and look ahead to the RBNZ today. A big cut is expected, but will there be another one next time round? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E237 · Mon, October 07, 2024
Global markets adjust to Fed expectations
Tuesday 8th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today markets are responding to a mix of adjustments to expectations for Fred rate cuts, alongside continued uncertainty about developments in the Middle East. Late in the day in the US a judge has added to downward moves in equities by ruling that Alphabet cannot block other marketplace providers from competing with the Play Store. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril takes Phil through the moves overnight and looks ahead to a Quadrifactor (yes that’s right) of local news. Plus, possibly news of government support from China today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E236 · Sun, October 06, 2024
Jobs a plenty
Monday 7th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The non-farm payrolls data on Friday in the US was a big upside surprise. It means there’s less need for any large cuts by the Fed who will be hoping they will have controlled inflation whilst steering the economy into a soft landing. That’s assuming the rise in jobs doesn’t mean a rise in salary expectations. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks Phil through what it means and why such a strong market response on Friday. Does it have implications for other central banks? Whilst he data might have reduced expectations for faster cuts by the Fed, the BoE’s Huw Pill talked down the market response to Andrew Bailey’s comments in the Guardian. They are in no rush. Unlike the RBNZ, who will almost certainly go for a large cut this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Fri, October 04, 2024
Weekend Edition: Going for Gold
Friday 4th October 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Gold has traditionally been seen as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Yet, in the last few weeks we’ve seen gold repeatedly hitting new highs, even as inflation recedes. The response to the unrest in the Middle East this week hasn’t had the marked impact you might have expected. Gold has been higher at times when the situation has been more contained. So, what is the driving force behind rising Gold prices? John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, says the price has been driven by purchases from emerging markets, many of whom want to rely less on the US dollar. Phil asks if he’s talking about the BRICs nations, who reportedly want to develop their own gold-backed currency. It’s a fascinating discussion about where gold price growth is coming from and how long it will remain elevated. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E234 · Thu, October 03, 2024
Oil surges on Biden’s unanswered question
Friday 4th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil has risen sharply this morning after Joe Biden was asked about is support for an Israeli attack, if it was to target Iran’s oil facilities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the US President didn’t really answer the question, but it was enough for investors to fear that this was a scenario that could play out. Elsewhere, markets responded to an unexpected jump in the US services ISM, and surprisingly dovish remarks from the BoE governor that’s heightened expectations for more immediate cuts from the Bank of England Without doubt, though, the most significant news is yet to come - the latest US payrolls data, which could reinforce or deflect market expectations for another 50bp cut at an FOMC meeting before Christmas. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E233 · Wed, October 02, 2024
When Hawks Fly
Wednesday 2nd October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today, Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about two hawks who seem to have metamorphosed into something a bit more dove-like. First, the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, who has just about confirmed a rate cut for this month. Secondly, the BoJ’s Governor Ueda who seems to be happy to toe the line of the new Prime Minister. The prospect of no rate hike any time soon, and the questions it raises about the independence of the central bank, has seen the Yen taking a big hit. Looking ahead, the US Services ISM will be the key data piece, whilst we keep a watching brief on developments in the Middle East. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E232 · Tue, October 01, 2024
Risk Off on Israel Iran War Fears
Wednesday 2nd October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets moved swiftly into classic risk-off territory as Iran started firing missiles into Israeli airspace. Early reports suggest minimal damage and casualties, and markets retreated a little. NAB’s Skye Masters says its often the case with significant geopolitical events that the instant reaction is tempered somewhat as more news emerges. Perhaps a broadening conflict will have a more lasting impact on oil. The news did overshadow the strong JOLTs data in the US, which showed more job openings. Australia’s retail sales numbers were also stronger than expected, but it is just one survey and the ABS says warmer weather in August is partially responsible. Meanwhile BNZ has revised its forecasts for rate cuts by the RBNZ, predicting two 50bp cuts before Christmas. The US Vice Presidential debate Is on today, late morning Australia time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E231 · Mon, September 30, 2024
Powell resetting expectations?
Tuesday 1st October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Some of the biggest moves yesterday were hardly surprises. The sharp rise in Chinese equities and the fall in Japan. On China, NAB’s Gavin Friend wonders whether markets are too optimistic and whether there’s a pushing on a string element to some of the reforms there. US equities finished higher, having spent much of the session in the red, whilst there were further moves up in bond yields. Gain says there’s some commentary on Jerome Powell winding back on rate cut expectations, when really he was simply reiterating the need to wait and see the dat. That data starts today, with the JOLTs job opening numbers in the US. Australian retail sales will be watched keenly today and survey data for New Zealand could held determine whether the RBNZ goes for a 25bp or 50bpcut next week. Also, NAB has moved forward its forecasts of when the RBA will cut. Listen in for the latest prediction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E230 · Sun, September 29, 2024
War escalates, and Japan’s PM surprise
Monday 30th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB What impact will attacks in the Middle East have on markets now? Israel is working hard to neutralise Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy combatants, with attacks on Lebanon and Yemen. It’s the first question Phil put to NAB’s Tapas Strickland on this morning’s podcast. We know there will be a strong response to the election of Japan’s new LDP, with Shigeru Ishiba becoming the new Prime Minister from Tuesday. But what does it mean for the Bank of Japan? They also discuss the latest US PCE data and why markets are expecting a faster rate of cuts than the Fed, as well as looking ahead to European inflation data, Australian deposits and retails ales and US non-farm payrolls at the end of a fairly busy week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E229 · Fri, September 27, 2024
The Weekend Edition: The rise and rise of ETFs
Friday 27th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . ETFs – exchange traded funds – are becoming increasingly popular. So who is buying them? What are they buying? Phil is joined by Chamath de Silva, Head of Fixed Income at Betashares, where he manages their fixed income ETFs portfolio. They talk about the growth in ETFs and what it’s doing to flows. For example, is it driving more investors in search of overseas assets? Also, the range of asset classes covered, and the growth of active funds. And what does it mean for the future of investment advisors and fund managers? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E228 · Thu, September 26, 2024
The Bazooka, at long last?
Friday 27th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB China is set to issue a lot of bonds to fire the long-awaited Bazooka. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the market reaction to the speculation that China is, at long last, ready to push ahead with a very sizeable fiscal stimulus. Oil behaved the opposite to what you’d expect from the news, driven by expectations of increased supply from Saudi Arabia and Libya. There’s a lot of European data to absorb today, which could paint a picture f what the ECB will do next. Their next meeting is an each way bet at the moment. Finally, Ray explains why the LDP leadership vote in Japan today could be market moving, Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E227 · Wed, September 25, 2024
Risk on switched off, whilst Riksbank gets on with it
Thursday 26th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The slight risk-on mood we saw after news of potential further stimulus measures in China has ebbed away a little today, particularly in the share market, where indices are generally lower in the US and Europe overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s a bit of a reassessment during a session low on data. Expectations for an outside cut by the Fed have fallen slightly on the back of one large individual trade. The Riksbank, though, is confidently cutting rates, suggesting they’ll keep going until they reach their neutral rate, once they’ve decided what that is. Given the focus lately is on watching jobs, Australia’s job vacancies and US jobless claims will prove interesting today. And a night when too many Fed speakers is barely enough. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E216 · Tue, September 24, 2024
Does China have a workable plan?
Wednesday 25th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is still some uncertainty about the future direction of US policy, with the Fed’s Michelle Bowman still concerned about a potential return of inflation, whilst most other Fed members are worried about a downturn in employment having a broader impact on the economy. NAB’s Skye Masters says the diversity of opinion is being driven by mixed data, the sharp slowdown in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report being the latest example. But there is a slight risk-on mood today, driven by hopes that China will offer a comprehensive package to kick start their economy. Meanwhile, the RBA kept rates on hold as expected, and weakness in European PMIs yesterday has heightened expectations for two more cuts by the ECB this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E215 · Mon, September 23, 2024
Disappointing news
Tuesday 24th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Monday’s global PMIs were universally disappointing, but the downward trajectory was most pronounced in Europe and, in particularly Germany. It’s created a mixed story in bond movements today, even though equities have fared well. NAB’s Tapas Strickland describes how markets are seeing the relative positions of the US and Europe right now. Today the RBA announces its rate decision, with widespread agreement that they will keep rates on hold. But how long for? And is China about to go for broke on their 5% growth target? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E214 · Sun, September 22, 2024
Making minor adjustments
Monday 23rd September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were surprisingly small moves in bond yields on Friday, whilst investors in shares seemed to be momentarily reassessing their optimism after the 50bp cut from the Fed. Nonetheless, two more cuts are assumed this year, with a rising expectation that there will be another big cut before Christmas, assisted by comments from the Fed’s Waller who suggested that inflation is falling faster than expected. The standout move in currencies was the Japanese Yen responding to push-back on the expected timing of the next rate rise by the BoJ’s Governor Ueda. Today, global PMIs are released, giving the latest snapshot on the relative strength of Germany versus the rest of Europe versus the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E213 · Fri, September 20, 2024
Weekend Edition: The Invisible Hand Behind Your Super Fund
Friday 13th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . From Super funds to family trusts, John Coombe, Executive Director at JANA, has been providing investment advice for well over three decades. He is one of Australia’s most highly regarded asset managers. So, what’s the secret to his success? Part of the answer, he says, is listening to a client’s needs. The other element is to do with timing. What else? Phil teases out more from John as they take a whistle stop tour around the globe, through various asset classes and the influence of everything from central banks, to governments, to how companies treat investors. It’s an entertaining half an hour that will demonstrate the other reason for John’s success – his understanding of how the world is connected and constantly changing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E212 · Thu, September 19, 2024
Markets buoyant from Fed hikes. BoE plays it cool.
Friday 20th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets have responded positively to the mega-cut from the Fed yesterday, whist the Bank of England plays it cool, keeping rates on hold yesterday. Andrew Bailey said they should be able to reduce rates gradually over time, without giving any clear signal on how gradual or how much time. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates on hold, but with CPI expected to rise today NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders how long they’ve be able to maintain that policy position. He also discusses with Phil yesterday’s employment numbers from Australia and New Zealand’s GDP numbers which, although slightly better than expected, still show an economy in trouble. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E211 · Wed, September 18, 2024
Fed cuts, revises dot plot, markets still want more
Thursday 19th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Perhaps not surprisingly the Fed opted for the 50bp cut. Markets responded sharply, but then rowed back shortly afterwards as Jerome Powell tried to downplay the significance of the move at the press conference that followed, saying this wasn’t a new pace just a recalibration of policy. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to decipher the language, the revised forecasts and the market response. Next, it’s the BoE, unlikely to move, particularly after a slightly hotter than expected inflation print. Plus, Australian employment numbers and NZ GDP today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E210 · Tue, September 17, 2024
The widening Atlantic drift
Wednesday 18th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been no surprises in US economic data overnight. Retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing weren’t far off expectations. So, do they all point to a soft landing? And if that’s the scenario, why would the Fed delay a big rate cut? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton, less than 24 hours from the FOMC decision, which includes revised forecasts and a new dot plot. There’s also the question as to whether the Bank of Canada will move to a faster cutting schedule, given CPI actually showed deflation last month. UK CPI is the main figure today – in particular the sticky services inflation. And, could the ECB be forced to cut rates faster in face of a slowing economy, with the latest ZEW survey for Germany showing confidence has plummeted as hopes of a recovery subside. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E209 · Mon, September 16, 2024
Is the Fed spending too long in the shower?
Tuesday 17th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Market pricing moved further in favour of a 50bpcut from the fed this week. Does that mean the Fed, who are expected to make at least one big cut before Christmas, side with the market? It makes it easier for them to walk through an open door, says JBWere’s Sally Auld on this morning’s podcast. There’s also discussion about Paul Krugman’s tweets overnight, suggesting that a data dependent Fed risks becoming Milton Friedman’s fool in the shower — the guy who alternately freezing and scalding himself because he’s too data-dependent. Canada’s CPI print is the only major data release of the day. What does it mean for the BoC, and how long do they stay in the shower for before they leave those taps alone? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Bonus · Sun, September 15, 2024
Big or small?
Monday 16th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big or small, that’s the question this week. Will the Fed go for a 50bp cut? If the plan is to do that at some point this year, why not now? That’s one of the arguments being touted, which Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill. Certainly, equity markets seem to be expecting a larger cut, with the Russell 2000 showing particularly strong growth on Friday. Meanwhile softer activity data from China suggests they are sliding further away from their 5% growth target, but there’s no indication of when the Politburo will implement new policies beyond the remit of the PBoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E207 · Fri, September 13, 2024
Weekend Edition: Getting to know labour market data
Friday 13th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The Labour Market Report is one of the most eagerly awaited monthly releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It’s even more crucial at times like now, when it is so influential on central bank policy. But in many countries gathering this data is proving difficult. People are less prepared to participate, and gathering reliable information is becoming more costly. That’s not been an issue in Australia, according to Bjorn Jarvis, the ABS’s Head of Labour Statistics. He says the Australian population is generally very civic minded. That makes things easier. In this half hour Weekend edition Phil talks to Bjorn about how the data is collected and analysed and what trends have surprised him over recent years. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E206 · Thu, September 12, 2024
ECB cuts rates and downgrades growth
Friday13th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 percent, as expected. The question is, will there be more to come soon. The growth forecast has been downgraded slightly. Mario Draghi’s report is asking for substantial investment to see substantive growth in Europe and last month the ECB’s Ollie Rehn warned of the prospect of negative growth if a re-elected President Trump goes heavy on tariffs. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives his take on the ECB’s dilemma. We also look at US PPI and jobless claims overnight, and the rising government deficit. Plus, the impact of Hurricane Francine and what to expect from China’s activity data over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E205 · Wed, September 11, 2024
A Swift win for Kamala, and a rogue CPI print
Thursday 12th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Kamala Harris “won“ the Presidential debate, by most accounts, and US core GDP showed a slight tick up last month. Neither bit of news really moved the markets. Harris still has to win the election and, although a rise in CPI may be concerning, the headline rate came down for the fifth month in a row. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it hasn’t changed the pricing for cuts by year end, it might just push back a 50bp cut further than next week. The ECB is expected to cut rates today, whilst the BoE will be balancing up higher job numbers this week, with another flat GDP read overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E204 · Tue, September 10, 2024
Market responds to OPEC+ downgrade. US CPI and THAT debate to come.
Wednesday 11th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s been sizable falls in oil prices overnight, driven by a downward revision to OPEC+ forecasts for this year and next. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about the market response to the oil price and the slowdown more generally. She suggests it’ll make next week’s forecasts and dot plot from the Fed particularly interesting. We shouldn’t expect too much of a reaction to the US CPI numbers today and, unless there’s an overwhelming winner in the TV debate today, it’s probably too early to resume the Trump trade. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E203 · Mon, September 09, 2024
Bad Apple Not Stopping Bounce Back
Tuesday 10th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities rose sharply to the close overnight. Apple shares rose less than most, with prices actually falling during the release of the new iPhone 16, which clearly failed to impress markets. But that wasn’t enough to stop a lot of dip-buying during a session largely devoid of data releases. There’s a bit more today with the latest employment data for the UK, numbers that could definitely influence the direction of the Bank of England next week. Otherwise, markets wait for US CPI and the big debate, both more than a day away. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E202 · Sun, September 08, 2024
Worried about revisions
Monday 9th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst the US unemployment rate came in as expected on Friday, at 4.2 percent, it was downward revision to the previous two months numbers that seem to have caused the most consternation. With the Fed signalling their focus is on ensuring there isn’t a sudden downturn in employment, will these numbers raise the expectations that the cut next week will be a big one. Not yet says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, even though there has been a notable change in language from the Fed. Friday also saw a rise in demand for housing loans in Australia – adding to the RBA’s argument that there’s no need to move quickly to cutting rates. The week ahead includes US CPI numbers and an interest rate decision from the ECB. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E202 · Fri, September 06, 2024
Weekend Edition: China’s Missed Opportunity
Friday 6th September 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . China won’t achieve its 5% growth target this year. Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro, says the forward indicators show it won’t happen. So, what next for China? Yan says a shift in government policy is needed. Their focus has been on developing new, higher income sectors, such as EV manufacture. That makes perfect sense. But there’s no support on the demand side of the economy, which is languishing under low confidence levels, less spending and a shrinking money supply. All that can be turned around, but that takes a change in thinking from Beijing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E201 · Thu, September 05, 2024
Waiting on a knife edge
Friday 6th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are less than a day away from the US non-farm payrolls numbers, which are likely to determine whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp or 50bp at this month’s meeting. NAB’s Ray Attrill says if the numbers are in-line with expectations he reckons that’ll solidify pricing for a 25bp cut, but anything weaker would push expectations towards 50bp. It’ll be interesting to see the take of two prominent Fed speakers – Williams and Waller - a couple of hours after the event. Meanwhile Michelle Bullock reiterated the need to keep rates high to fight inflation, arguing that inflation does more damage than higher rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E200 · Wed, September 04, 2024
Less jobs, more uncertainty
Thursday 5th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Shares continue to push lower along with bond yields as markets continue to be concerned about the US jobs market. The JOLTs numbers overnight show the least number of jobs available since April 2021. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are vacillating between expected a 25bp and a 50bpcut from the Fed this month and the overnight numbers pushed slightly towards the stronger cut. Meanwhile, Australia’s GDP growth data yesterday showed a slowdown in consumption, but the assumption is this will pick up as real income increases, helped along by tax cuts. And the Bank of Canada cut rates for a third time, with more to follow, amidst talk that inflation might fall too far. Ahead of payrolls on Friday we get ADP jobs numbers today and the weekly jobless claims. Expect markets to react! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E199 · Tue, September 03, 2024
Nervous Nellies
Wednesday 4th September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been some sharp defensive market moves overnight. In currency markets safe havens have done well, whilst shares are well down, the VIX index has risen and bonds have rallied. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why all this nervousness all of a sudden? The only significant data release has been the US Manufacturing ISM which admittedly, did include rising prices and falls in new orders. Was that what spooked the markets, or is it more a fear of what’s to come, with payrolls at the end of the week? Before that, JOLTs and the Bank of Canada tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E198 · Mon, September 02, 2024
America back in time for manufacturing numbers
Tuesday 3rd September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were subdued again on Monday with the US on holiday. Today they are back, in time for the ISM manufacturing read. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the employment component of the report will get the most focus, as the first of several labour market indicators ahead of non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. He also talks us through yesterday’s Australian business indicators and what they could mean for GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E197 · Sun, September 01, 2024
ECB and US inflation leading to rate cuts. Australia waits.
Monday 2nd September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB European inflation is now at its lowest level in three years, whilst shares hit an all-time high. That’s cemented in the probability of a cut by the ECB this month. Expectations for cuts by the Fed haven’t moved any higher, as the Core PCE inflation read on Friday was in-line with expectations. But the fact that other central banks are cutting doesn’t mean the RBA will. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser had to say on this during a podcast from Friday. Today is a quiet start to a busy week, with the US on holiday today, leading to non-farm payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E196 · Fri, August 30, 2024
Weekend Edition: Australian Equities Doing Nicely Thankyou
Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Despite all the fears of a major slowdown, Australian shares have continued to rise and the latest results season has provided stronger than expected earnings. nabtrade’s Gemma Dale says the underlying strength in the economy, which is providing the RBA with no motive to drop rates in a hurry, is being reflected in healthy sales revenue and profits. The historic safe choices (ie mining and financials), continue to perform, even though the questions are always asked – have we reached peak iron ore, have we reached peak bank? And what of the growth in ETFs. Are they becoming more dominant and are they being used primarily as a vehicle to invest in overseas assets? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E195 · Thu, August 29, 2024
AI caution, higher US spending and Aussie capex wanes
Thursday 29th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Two surprises from the US. First, a 100 percent growth from NVIDIA wasn’t enough for investors, who obviously expected more. So, even though their results were considered a beat, their share price is still well down. The other surprise was the sharp upward revision in US spending. Personal spending was revised up from 2.3% to 2.9%. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril picks through the numbers. And should we be worried about the fall in Australian Capex spending yesterday? It’s a busy day ahead today, with European CPI, Australian retail sales and Canada’s GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E194 · Wed, August 28, 2024
NVIDIA fails to disappoint
Thursday 29th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets were preoccupied with NVIDIA earnings for much of the week, finishing the session with unwarranted pessimism. As it turns out, earnings beat expectations and forecasts for the next quarter are also above the street’s estimates. As a result, the share price switched from a 2.5% drop at close to a 0.5% gain immediately after the earnings announcement. We wait to see what the broader ramifications are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s a bellwether for how well AI is doing. We also look at yesterday’s Australian CPI from yesterday and look ahead to European inflation numbers, out today and tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E193 · Tue, August 27, 2024
Aussie inflation and not much more
Tuesday 27th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australia’s latest monthly inflation number is out today. Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters what’s expected and how pivotal will it be to the RBA, given they seem intent to keep rates on hold until next year. This time tomorrow NVIDIA releases its Q2 earnings, possibly the most significant event in a week devoid of large data releases. Which is why Phil and Skye resort to picking the bones out of a number of second tier releases from the US and Europe from yesterday and overnight. But every number counts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E192 · Mon, August 26, 2024
Letting it all sink in
Tuesday 27th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There hasn’t been a lot of market movement overnight. What there was saw a slight reversal on positions taken after Powell’s talk at Jackson Hole. Hence, the dollar is back up a little, shares have fallen, and bond yields are up slightly too. It’s lighter trading, of course, at the height of the northern summer and only second tier data to keep us occupied. That’s why NVIDIA’s earnings results on Wednesday (US time) could have an outsized influence on shares. Oil is sharply higher today, because of Libyan politics rather than tensions between Hezbollah and israel. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the day’s market news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E191 · Sun, August 25, 2024
The time has come
Monday 26th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Even though Fed speakers positioned markets to expect gradual and methodical cuts late last week, it was a very different language used by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss what was said and how market reacted. It’s clear a September cut is coming, with the Fed chair declaring that “the time has come for policy to adjust”, with a focus more on easing in the jobs market than the fears of a reprise in inflation. They also look ahead to a fairly busy week for data, including CPI and retail sales in Australia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E190 · Fri, August 23, 2024
Weekend Edition: A world of difference - RBNZ v RBA
Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . On the face of it you’d wonder why central banks in New Zealand and Australia have taken such different paths when it comes to fighting inflation. They are both western economies that were growing reasonably well before the pandemic. Their response in 2020 was similar, with massive fiscal injections and quite severe lockdowns. So, why such a radical difference in the response to inflation post-pandemic? The RBNZ is rapidly cutting rates, whilst the RBA is unlikely to start until next year. Stephen Toplis, Head of research at BNZ Markets in Wellington, says the economies are not the same. Even before the pandemic New Zealand was suffering with labour shortages, pushing wages higher. Now the economy has seen a more significant slowing, in part due to their higher level of rates. As Gareth Spence points out, NAB’s Head of Australian Economics, there is certainly an adjustment going on in Australia, but overall the economy and labour market have been resilient. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S1 E189 · Thu, August 22, 2024
Let’s get gradual
Friday 23rd August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields are higher, the dollar has fallen and US equities are lower. Markets have switched direction over the last 24 hours. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are three reasons for the reversal – the latest PMI data, central bank speak and expectations for the outcome of the US election. The rhetoric from Fed speakers has been around a more gradual approach to rate cuts. It’s also the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. It’s just like the Oscars for central bankers, without the awards, the glamour or the popular appeal. But, for all the speeches and panel discussions, will anything be said that’s not already known or assumed? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E188 · Wed, August 21, 2024
Not much carry on
Thursday 22nd August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today as the US dollar weakens again, against a rising Yen, Phil asks JBWere’s Sally Auld to explain the impact rates differentials are having on the Japanese carry trade. The FOMC minutes this morning came as close as they possibly could to saying a rate cut will happen in September. That’s added to the weakness in the US dollar, and helped equities recover. They also look at the price of oil, which Sally says is reaching a point where it represents better value for investors. Global PMIs are the focus, along with th weekly jobless claims. A downward revision to the non-farm payrolls overnight was quite marked, but Sally explains why markets didn’t react toit as much as you might expect. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E187 · Tue, August 20, 2024
Holding Pattern
Wednesday 21st August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been another quiet session, with stocks taking a breather after an 8-day rally, with volumes for the S&P 25% below its 20-day average. Bond yields have pushed lower, which NAB’s Ken Crompton says is largely a response to Canada’s CPI numbers, which presented the evidence needed for the Bank of Canada to continue with its rate cuts. The US dollar ticked lower again, thanks to a sharp rise in the Yen, which was a response to a Bank of Japan report suggesting inflation was rising from wage pressures and corporate behaviour (presumably, claiming bigger margins). That seems to have been taken as the case for further rate hikes by the bank, and Friday’s inflation number might seal the deal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E186 · Mon, August 19, 2024
Shares Rally In Northern Hiatus
Tuesday 20th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are in the thick of the US and European holiday season, mixed with a dearth of data. Hence, shares are pushing higher, presumably on the hope of greater reassurance around rate cuts from the Fed at Jackson Hole. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets wouldn’t react well if there isn’t some indication that September cuts are on the cards. Meanwhile the US dollar drifts lower, oil takes a hit and bonds remain fairly flat. Today Canada’s CPI is the main data point, whilst we’ll be looking for any additional colour in the latest minutes from the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E185 · Sun, August 18, 2024
All eyes on Jackson Hole
Monday 19th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Central bankers get together for the glitzy proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Will Jerome Powell use it s a springboard for more advice on how and when the Fed will cut rates? Probably not, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, given the focus on data in Fed decision making and there’s much that’s new in the intervening days. Still, markets are optimistic, evidenced by seven days of consecutive growth in the S&P share index up to Friday. The Riksbank could announce a supersized cut this week and a softer Canadian CPI print could see the Bank of Canada heading the same way. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E184 · Fri, August 16, 2024
Weekend Edition: Is there too much state debt?
Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . A report last week from S&P Global highlights that the debt held by Australian states could exceed $600 billion later this year. Rebecca Hrvatin joins Phil to discuss this rise in debt and what it’s doing to credit ratings. Overspend on infrastructure projects seem to be one of the major concerns. But there’s no shortage of buyers according to Ken Crompton. Ken is senior fixed income strategist at NAB and a regular on The Morning Call. He says, ironically, greater debt will be attractive to overseas investors who might previously have been put off by the limited availability of Australian state debt. The issue going forward is not how much debt is being carried, but how effectively it’s being managed. Massive project overspends are part of the problem and interest payments are becoming an increasing proportion of state governments’ expenditure. Phil asks whether green bonds could restore some balance and attract even more foreign buyers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E183 · Thu, August 15, 2024
Too much of a good thing
Friday 16th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US retail sales numbers out yesterday showed surprisingly strong spending in July. That’s pushed equities markedly higher. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says bond yields are up as markets see this retail strength as a sign that the US is not heading for a recession, which reduces the impetus for a faster path of cuts by the Fed. Rodrigo also discusses the UK’s GDP read, today’s retail numbers there, and the swag of activity data from China yesterday. Plus, what to make of yesterday's Australian employment numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E182 · Wed, August 14, 2024
No surprises!
Thursday 15th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares moved up slightly – except for the Russell 2000 - and bond yields fell a little, after the release of the US Core CPI print overnight. The response was muted because the data came in pretty much as expected. It was anyone’s guess where the RBNZ was heading, but we expected a cut on the advice of the BNZ and that’s what we saw. And NAB’s Gavin Friend proudly conveys the positive vibes from Britain, where inflation came in softer than expected, with the hope of a strong GDP growth number later today. If markets weren’t moved by US CPI, will the jobless claims repeat the influence they had this time last week, coupled with the latest retail sales numbers and a couple of regional manufacturing reports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E181 · Tue, August 13, 2024
Risk appetite back for a day
Wednesday 14th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Softer than expected producer prices in the US has convinced the markets that the Fed will be ready to cut in September. NAB’s Skye Masters says in an environment where decisions by central banks are so data dependent we are seeing wide shifts in sentiment, particularly in equity and bond markets, as each release is published. That means the markets at the US close on Wednesday could be violently different on Thursday when US CPI is released. We can also expect some volatility from the RBNZ decision today, with analysts split on whether or not the NZ central bank will cut rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E180 · Mon, August 12, 2024
Markets wait calmly for US inflation data
Tuesday 12th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares and bond markets have remained relatively calm, as we await the latest inflation data from the US (PPI today, CPI tomorrow). There’s plenty of data flow this week, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent, but there’s been nothing so far to move markets. Locally, will the speech from the RBA’s Andrew Hauser have any impact on the pricing for rate cuts this year? He criticised the media for talking with “extraordinary certainty” about the outlook of the economy and what the RBA was going to do about it. But markets are still pricing in a 50:50 chance of a rate cut as early as November, despite the bank’s determined effort to convince us otherwise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E179 · Sun, August 11, 2024
The recession they didn’t have to have
Monday 11th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Remember when Pauk Keating talked about the recession we had to have? Markets thought the US was heading the same way last week, but went off the idea as the week progressed. Thoughts of an emergency rate cut were quickly dismissed, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s still more than 25bp of cuts priced in for September. A 50bp cut could still happen before the end of the year. US inflation data is out this week but, unless there’s an outsize surprise, markets are unlikely to respond too much. The focus is on jobs now, although the Fed’s Michelle Bowman outlined several inflation risk factors on Friday that are worth watching for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E178 · Fri, August 09, 2024
Weekend Edition: A bright future for Indigenous businesses
Friday 9th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Friday (Aug 9th) is the United Nations' International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples. To celebrate, the Morning Call looks at how Australia is witnessing a growth in companies established and run by Indigenous Peoples. NAB’s Noel Prakash says there’s been a shift from predominantly cultural and tourism related entities, to more mainstream businesses. He talks about Kooya as one example, providing fleet management and salary packing services to mineral businesses in Western Australia. There’s the obvious opportunity for more to be done in the green space, too, from a people with a deep-rooted attachment to the earth. But what’s stopping us from having more Indigenous entrepreneurs? Noel talks about how NAB is amongst those offering more capital for start-ups, and how on a global scale even Twitter founder Jack Dorsey sees the size of the opportunity that can come from the right investment in Indigenous projects. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E177 · Thu, August 08, 2024
Markets turn, just on weekly jobless numbers?
Friday 9th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a sharp turnaround in US equities, with the S&P closing up 2.3%. It seems a lot of weight has been put behind the weekly jobless claims number, which is not normally a data point that would drive markets. But in this climate anything is possible. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it was probably an overreaction. Whilst some might see the week’s fall in claims as supporting an argument that the US is a long way from recession, others will point to the trend which shows claims are rising and the job market is weakening. In Australia the RBA’s Michelle Bullock stepped up the language around the persistence of inflation to try and knock out expectations of cuts this year, and the rising Aussie dollar is a sign that maybe the markets are listening. Today, China’s inflation numbers and Canada’s employment data are the two main releases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E176 · Wed, August 07, 2024
T’was a Wobbly Wednesday
Thursday 8th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is still a lot of volatility around. US shares started the session well, with strong signs that risk appetite was improving. Then came a weak response to a a $42 billion 10-year bond auction. That made markets nervous and US equities closed sharply in the red. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about why the auction didn’t go well, and the influence Japan is still having on markets, influenced yesterday and overnight by words from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida. Today the NAB Business Survey is out and the RBA’s Michelle Bullock speaks early afternoon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E175 · Tue, August 06, 2024
Crisis over. Carry on. Really?
Tuesday 6th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is it feasible to expect a sharp recovery from one data set, after the extreme response to last week’s US jobs data? Markets bounced back sharply today, pushing US yields higher, strengthening the dollar and pushing shares back up. Although trade retraced its steps a little as the session marched on, with shares losing about half their gains at the US close. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we can expect volatility to be around for a while yet. Meanwhile, the RBA showed little concern for the risks of an economic slowdown, sending a clear message not to expect rate cuts this year and how they had given serious consideration to a rate hike this week. It’s a quieter session today, but that doesn’t man it won’t be just as volatile. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E174 · Mon, August 05, 2024
Manic Monday
Tuesday 6th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares took more of a hammering on Monday, although an upside surprise on the Services ISM read stopped things spiralling from bad to worse. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about another day of volatile market action, particularly for Japan, where the Yen rose sharply and shares fell quickly. They talk about where is the Fed now on its path of cuts for the rest of the year, and whether markets overplayed the response to the weaker than expected jobs data. Does any of this have any influence over what the RBA does next, assuming they keep rates on hold today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E173 · Sun, August 04, 2024
Markets rocked as Sahm Rule ignited
Monday 5th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a strong response to the weaker than expected US payrolls numbers on Friday, not on the heals of weak manufacturing data. Markets will be sensitive to the Services today, in case it adds another blow to US growth and fuels more inflation speculation. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says part of the concern is that Friday’s rise in unemployment, from 3.8% in March to 4.3% in June, meets the criteria for the Sahm Rule, which is seen as a stronger predictor of a forthcoming recession. The news on Friday was felt across most asset classes, with equities in the US and Europe particularly feeling the hurt. Whilst the Fed might be scrambling to play catch-up on rate cuts, Huw Pill has suggested the Bank of England is still fighting inflation, and the RBA is expected to remain on hold tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E172 · Fri, August 02, 2024
Weekend Edition: Well off track for Net Zero
Friday 2nd August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The latest Bloomberg New Energy Outlook seems to show that globally we are way off the mark when it comes to reaching Net Zero by 2050. Instead, the report suggests we could still be pumping 25 gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That’s less than today but not enough of a reduction to contain temperature growth. The numbers are based on Bloomberg’s Economic Transition scenario, which assumes we let the economy drive the decision making, without any further policy or investment strategies. But Leonard Quong, head of Australian research at Bloomberg NEF, says the differential between Net Zero and the Economic Transition scenario has been narrowing each year, so there is grounds for optimism. They also touch on the question of nuclear energy. It might make sense in some markets, but is it right for Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E171 · Thu, August 01, 2024
BoE boldly goes where the Fed feared to tread
Thursday 1st August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US share market has taken a bit of a beating after US manufacturing numbers came in a lot softer than expected. It was another sign of a US slow down that has some clearly wondering whether the Fed will cut more this year. There is no waiting for the BoE. They cut rates but NAB’s Gavin Friend says it was a finely balanced decision. Services inflation continues to be the UK’s Achilles heal, but their manufacturing numbers are doing better than most. Tonight all eyes will be on the US non-farm payrolls, particularly as Jerome Powell has indicated that the fed will be looking closely for any slowdown on the jobs market as, with inflation largely under control, it focuses more on the second part of its dual mandate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E170 · Wed, July 31, 2024
Fed holds, BoJ lifts, BoE set to cut. Shares go crazy.
Thursday 1st August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a busy session, with US shares shooting higher as the Fe keeps rates on hold but the market reading the fed’s commentary of a September cut even more likely. During the press conference Jerome Powell basically said it was on the table if things carried on as they are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the latest from the Fed, and suggests that yesterday’s softer than expected CPI print for Australia puts paid to any further talk of rate rises. But it’s also not good enough to bring forward cuts. The Bank of Japan did lift rates by 15bp, pushing yields up and a 2 percent rise in the Yen. Today the Bank of England meets. Will they really cut rates head of the Fed? And Meta reported strong earnings after the close, helping bolster after-hours trade. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E169 · Tue, July 30, 2024
When it rains it pours: Aussie inflation, Japan’s rate decision. Microsoft earnings
Wednesday 31st July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a packed episode of The Morning Call today as Phil gets NAB’s Ray Attrill to take us through the latest GDP and inflation data from Europe, jobs data from the US and, from China, the Politburo’s promise to jump into action and reach 5% GDP, without really saying how. Today Australia’s CPI is the main point of interest because it could drive the RBA to an interest rate rise. A rise is expected from the bank of Japan later, perhaps a little more than previously thought. And Microsoft’s earnings results came in stronger than expected, but the after hours share price clearly didn’t like the softer results for intelligent cloud revenue. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E168 · Mon, July 29, 2024
Markets calm before the storm
Tuesday 30th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a quiet session, with shares and bond markets moving very little, as we await the Fed and some high-profile earnings results. We’ve seen very tight trading ranges, says NABs Skye Masters on today’s podcast. The mood music though is one of an anticipated slowdown. That’s why oil prices and industrial metals are down so much. McDonalds reported a fall in global sales in their latest earnings report. European GDP is the major number out today, a long with job openings for the US. And listen in for how US earnings results give a foretaste of where the US employment market is heading. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E167 · Sun, July 28, 2024
A big week for jobs, inflation, earnings and banks
Friday 26th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Get ready for a busy week, with US jobs umbers, Australian inflation, three ig earnings results from US tech giants; and the Fed meets, so does the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says one will stay on hold, one is expected to lift rates and the other is 50:50 on a cut. He also discusses with Phil last week’s core PC numbers, which showed inflation was slowing, along with earnings and consumer spending. A scenario that is very supportive of cuts by the FOMC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E166 · Fri, July 26, 2024
Weekend Edition: Japan’s Inflation Revolution
Friday 26th July 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Things are changing in Japan. After decades of not much happening, suddenly everything is happening. Core inflation is up to 2.6%, the Yen is the weakest in a long time, the stock market has hit highs not seen since the eighties, and the BoJ has moved interest rates into positive territory. It all points to a win for Japan according to Harry Ishihara, a macro strategist contractor for Macrobond and Japan Exchange Group. Suddenly companies feel enabled to raise prices and offer higher wages, helping increase margins and drive investment. He calls it Japan’s Inflation Revolution. But will it last? Was this the shot in the arm the economy needed, and how much is being driven simply by a weaker Yen. What’s to stop that weakness being eroded and Japan’s competitiveness diminished? Harry provides some very useful insights into what’s driving the value of Japan’s currency and why a weaker Yen could be here to stay. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E165 · Thu, July 25, 2024
US Goldilocks again, Germany Brothers Grimm
Friday 26th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A sharp turnaround in US optimism it seems, with this week’s disappointing PMIs easily overwritten by an upside surprise on GDP. Jobless claims were also down a little. The response – rising equities and falling Treasury yields. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether Goldilocks is back on the horizon, offering a faster path to cuts with minimal economic damage. It’s a very different story in Europe though, where we saw PMIs sharply lower in Germany and reaffirmed by the IFO numbers out overnight. Of course central bank decisions ultimately rest on inflation numbers, so Tokyo’s CPI and June’s US Core PCE Deflator reads will be watched keenly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E164 · Wed, July 24, 2024
Tech stocks tumble, PMIs weak, Dudley warns recession
Thursday 25th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bill Dudey, former NY Fed Governor, now Bloomberg pundit, has said the FOMC needs to cut rates next week and it might already be too late to avoid a recession. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this comes from a man who had advocated staying higher for longer. His opinion certainly impacted 2 year bond yields overnight But the bigger news is the large falls in US equities, led by tech stocks, with the cost of AI and the slow delivery on promises taking the blame. PMIs came in weaker than expected, not just for Germany, where the fall was particularly pronounced, but also for US manufacturing, which might help Dudley’s arguments, but US GDP (out tonight) is expected to rise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E163 · Tue, July 23, 2024
Markets cautious in the heart of earnings season
Wednesday 24th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Alphabet and Tesla both reported better than expected headline revenue numbers after the US close, but the mood is still cautious. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ all closed in the red, but a 1% rise in the Russell 2000. JB Were’s Sally Auld talks about the return of rotation, and the prospect of lower rates boost interest in the growth potential of smaller companies. And Sally points out there are only a couple of countries that are going against the idea of easing interest rates – one is Japan, that could well lift rates next week. The other is the RBA. NAB is not expecting a rate hike, but comments from Michelle Bullock yesterday is getting more people thinking its possible. It’s all down to next week’s CPI number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E162 · Mon, July 22, 2024
Less Trump trade, more tech
Tuesday 23rd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If markets were being driven by Trump-trade, the thought that he might have a more credible contender hasn’t had much impact. But what were we expecting? Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about whether, beyond bitcoin, the Trump-trade was a figment of our collective imaginations. Instead, the focus is back on tech, particularly as the first two of the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet and Telsa) report their earnings this time tomorrow. The surprise yesterday was a 10bp cut in China’s 1-year and 5-yea loan prime rates. But is it too small to have much impact? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E161 · Sun, July 21, 2024
Bye Bye Biden
Monday 22nd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The breaking news this morning is that Joe Biden is stepping down from the US Presidential race and endorsing Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. Phil asks whether they’ll be a market response, or have we already been seeing it. Last week saw the dollar climbing, against falling equities and a sell-off in commodities. How much of that was down to politics and how down to the economy and the musings of central bank speakers? After a quiet start this week is heavy on important numbers, including global PMIs, US GDP and core PCE on Friday, plus a continuation of earnings season. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E160 · Fri, July 19, 2024
Weekend Edition: Investing on the Road to Net Zero – Why Aren’t We Leading?
Friday 19th July 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Much of the world is on the road to achieving to net zero by 2050, a target which gets more challenging as each year passes. Australia is on the right path, but it isn’t leading the pack. Why Not? Phil puts the question to Rochel Hoffman, who leads Deloitte Australia’s ESG M&A practice. Despite having many rare earth mineral resources, vast quantities of land, a wealthy society, political stability and a sunny climate, Australia has been slower than most to invest in NetZero projects. The Climate Action Tracker, which is an independent scientific group that rates each country’s progress on the targets set in Paris, rates our climate finance as ‘critically insufficient’. That will change, says Rochel. We’re working through a series of constraints that have impacted the speed of the transformation. Our history with fossil fuels has been a part of the problem. Now, green technology provides a wealth of investment opportunities for a range of risk categories. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E159 · Thu, July 18, 2024
Are equity markets looking more at a downturn than rate cuts?
Friday 19th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equity markets fell sharply overnight. It’s not just tech stocks feeling the hurt, the weakness is spread more broadly than that, implying that concerns of an economic slowdown are outweighing the benefits of rate cuts. Rate cuts could be happening more slowly in Europe, with some in the ECB indicating that there might be only one more cut this year. NAB’s Ken Crompton returns from his holidays to discuss the market moves and the latest data, including Australian and UK employment numbers, and looking ahead to Japan’s CPI today. We also cover the Netflix earnings results, just out. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E168 · Wed, July 17, 2024
Pre-Trump Trade Battles and Currency Fears
Thursday 18th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It doesn’t take Donald Trump to launch a trade war with China. The Biden administration has threatened further limits on microchip exports to China, which hit tech stocks heavily in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says currencies, meanwhile, have reacted to comments from Donald Trump, who said he’s like to see a weaker US dollar, to compete against the weak Yen and Yuan. Today we look at the latest New Zealand and UK inflation numbers, and their influence on rate cuts, as well as looking ahead to today’s employment data for Australia. And the ECB, expected to be on hold, but there’s a press conference elater, if you want to stay up for it. If not, listen in to tomorrow’s podcast and get a decent night’s sleep in the meantime. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E167 · Tue, July 16, 2024
US retail runs hot and inflation day for many
Wednesday 17th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US retail numbers came in stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this could delay any moves by the Fed? Certainly, equity markets ae banking on cuts coming soon, with the rotation in stocks continuing and another strong session for the Russell 2000. Today the focus is on CPI. We’ve just had it for Canada, who seem to have it under control, and later we get it for the UK, where services inflation is putting up a fight, and New Zealand, where the economy is hanging out for a rate cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E166 · Mon, July 15, 2024
Powell eyes labour market, equity markets eye Trump friendly stocks
Tuesday 16th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets are showing some adjustment to the prospect of a Trump presidency, with oil producers and gun makers doing well, renewables falling and Bitcoin up almost 6% today. Bond markets are still more responsive to Fed-speak. NAB’s S kye Masters gives Phil her take-outs from Jerome Powell's interview at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. and another session seeing the yield curve ending steeper. Inflation data is out for Canada tonight, after a business survey showed further weakness in the economy. They also discuss the slump in New Zealand’s PMI’s and more data showing the extent of the China slowdown. Although many are expecting Chinese authorities to announce e very little new in their Third Plenum today, can they really sit by and wait? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E165 · Sun, July 14, 2024
Is Trump now a shoo-in for the Presidency?
Monday 15th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday is likely to bolster his support, ahead of his GOP official nomination this week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil that betting markets have shifted further in favour of a Republican win. So, will we see much market impact as markets re-open today? Markets on Friday were driven by a hjgher than expected PPI read, at odds with the weaker inflation numbers earlier in the week. Phil asks how this has changed market pricing for rate cuts. They also look at Friday’s US banks earnings, China’s trade data over the weekend. Plus, what is the Third Plenum and why should we pay attention to it? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E164 · Fri, July 12, 2024
Weekend Edition - 75 percent: The New Normal for Office Workers?
Friday 12th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB has been looking at a variety of high frequency data sources to see how quickly workers are returning to the office. In this edition NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the trend seems to have stalled at 75% of pre-COVID levels. Credit analyst Evy Noble says this is also reflected in occupancy levels, although there is a large variation from one capital city to another. Phil asks Michael Bush, NAB’s head of credit research, what this will mean for property prices and rental yield. Michael says the issue is exacerbated by new supply already in the pipeline. So how does the market evolve? Will companies try to tempt workers back to the office, or will they downsize and try and spread the days that people choose to work from home? The detail is contained in the NAB research note, The return to Office - are we now at the new normal? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E163 · Thu, July 11, 2024
A quick response to slower inflation.
Friday 12th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big market moves to a softer than expected CPI read in the US overnight. Bond yields are lower, the US dollar is lower and a big response in equity markets. Basically tech stocks have been hit hard, whilst industrials have climbed. Rotation is the key word for the day. The other word is Yen, which fell 1.8 percent on the CPI news. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s clearly been some opportunistic intervention by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile Joe Biden gives his press conference at the NATO conference shortly, which is widely billed by some commentators as the make or break moment for his Democrat nomination for the Presidency. And UK GDP better than expected but lost on the British people who seem more obsessed with the outcome of a certain soccer match over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E162 · Wed, July 10, 2024
Where are the Descendants?
Thursday 11th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The drive for Joe Biden to step aside continues to dominate the news cycle in America, with actor George Clooney, who held a fundraiser for the President only a month ago, now calling for him to step aside for someone younger. Incidentally, how many Clooney movies can you spot in today’s introduction? Meanwhile, markets are more focused on what Jerome Powell has been saying and whether the fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the end of the year, while closer to home, the RBNZ struck a noticeably more dovish tone at their July meeting. NAB’s Taylor Nugent gives his interpretation of what’s said and how markets have responded. The biggest moves today have been in US equities, is that Fed related or jockeying ahead of earnings season? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E161 · Tue, July 09, 2024
Powell says labour market is no longer an inflationary pressure
Wednesday 10th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Jerome Powell has been speaking to the US congress and says the labour market is no longer an inflationary pressure. So, what does that mean for the timing of rate cuts? NAB’s Skye Masters says there hasn’t been too much change in expectations, with a September cut seen as most likely. With a light calendar today, a lot of the focus will be on the US ten year note auction early tomorrow morning and whether weaker demand could push yields higher. The RBNZ meets today with any expecting a fairly dovish hold. The hold is extremely likely, but dovish? Let’s see. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E160 · Mon, July 08, 2024
Where now for Europe?
Tuesday 9th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a lacklustre day for markets. Equities have moved a little ahead of earnings season which kicks off in earnest later in the week. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk about the new French government, which will take some time to form. Will it be one of such compromise that nothing will be achieved? But is it symptomatic of Europe’s future. German trade data showed a sharp fall in imports yesterday. The EU is set to impose fines of countries falling outside their rules on government debt. Is there rally much hope for a European recovery? They also discuss Powell’s testimony tonight – will he use it as an opportunity to signal a change in attitude for the Fed? And NAB’s business survey is out today. Hopefully it will be a little more positive than last month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E159 · Sun, July 07, 2024
No right turn in Paris
Monday 8th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB France looks like it won’t be veering sharply to the right after a. The exit poll out this morning has Marine Le Pen’s party in third place, so it looks likely the country is heading for a hung parliament. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about how the markets will respond. There was plenty of reaction to the non-farm payrolls number on Friday. The headline number suggested a rise in the people in work, but the reality is it showed an easing jobs market which is reflected in raised expectations for a September rate cut. We also look ahead to the RBNZ this week and the question mark hanging over Jo Biden’s head. Will he make it as Presidential nominee for the November election? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E158 · Fri, July 05, 2024
Weekend Edition: More on Australia’s House Price Quandary
Friday 6th July 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In June, according to PropTrack, Australia’s home prices hit new highs, rising for the 18th consecutive month. But, as Eleanor Creagh, senior economist at PropTrack explains, the growth is far from even. There are some cities where prices are falling. So, what are the factors driving prices up? And how can it be that prices have risen so much in the last year even though the RBA is pursuing such a hefty tightening cycle, pushing interest rates higher. Eleanor takes Phil through the latest PropTrack data and looks at the inevitable question, where to from here? If buyers have taken a longer-term view, buying when interest rates have peaked, does that mean we are less likely to see a spike in prices when the rates start to fall? Or not? Logic and house prices can be strange bedfellows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E157 · Thu, July 04, 2024
Election Fever
Friday 5th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There are three big political stories today. First, the French election round two could still deliver a majority for Marine LePen’s party. But NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are not viewing that as such an alarming outcome, saying there’s been a bit of a learning curve about what this new party could do. The UK is likely to face a change of government today, which could bring new optimism to a country that is clearly ready for a change. And, as Gavin observes, the challenge to Biden’s Democrat leadership hasn’t gone away yet. Data wise, today’s key number is the US non-farm payrolls. The numbers to watch are the employment rate and average hourly wages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E156 · Wed, July 03, 2024
Weaker Services data pushes equities higher and bond yields lower
Thursday 4th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&P hit new highs as bond yields fell overnight. Markets clearly thought the latest ISM Services number, which came in surprisingly weak, is just the sort of slowdown indicator that will encourage the Fed to act sooner rather than later. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through the numbers, the market reaction, and the diverse attitudes of Fed members displayed in the latest FOMC minutes. There’s also discussion on yesterday’s Australia retail sales, that came in a little stronger than the RBA might like, but it’s just one month and there are a lot of seasonal factors at play. Prepare for a quiet day today, with the US on holiday. But keep an eye out for the Bidden story. Could pressure be mounting for him to step out of the race, for someone younger who is able to finish sentences. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E155 · Tue, July 02, 2024
What did Powell say to spur on US equity markets?
Wednesday 3rd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares rallied late in the session, on the back of comments from Jerome Powell. So what did he say? That’s the first question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on this morning’s podcast. Meanwhile, Europe's inflation barely moved and unemployment is sticking close to where its been for more than a year. There’s fresh concerns about the French election at the weekend too. Today Australia’s retails sales are out along with US Services ISM, which should show further slowing of growth. And the US knocks off early in readiness for the 4th July holiday tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E154 · Mon, July 01, 2024
Yields push higher still, France’s political concerns ease, one more reason for BoJ to lift rates
Tuesday 2nd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Treasury yields continue to rise. NAB’s Syke Masters says here are a range of factors at play ,but one is the seeming lack of concern on both sides of politics to address the US government’s rising deficit. In Europe concerns about a National Rally majority eased as almost 170 candidates withdrew from the second round election to avoid diluting opposition. A higher-than-expected index in the Tanken Large Manufacturing index in Japan provides another reason for the BoJ to lift interest rates. And the RBAA minutes will be scanned for suggestions about how seriously the potential of a rate hike was/is. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E153 · Sun, June 30, 2024
A pinch and a punch, and a win for LePen
Monday 1st July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the first day of the third quarter. The unsurprising news from French exit-polls this morning shows a clear win for Le Pen’s National Rally party, securing a third of the votes. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says markets have already priced-in the outcome and there’s been very little movement in early trade. Markets responded a little more to Biden’s shaky debate performance on Friday. On the data front, the Core PCE Deflator, the fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was good news – a little better than expected if you look at the second decimal place! Germany’s CPI is out today and the Central Banking get-together kicks off in Portugal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E152 · Fri, June 28, 2024
Weekend Edition: The Art and Science of Fixed Income. Without the straight lines.
Friday 28th June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Could central banks push their timing back even further? Emma Lawson says we can’t ignore how economies are slowing, so there’s every chance that market pricing for cuts could move forward. It’s never a straight line, the fixed income strategist at Janus Henderson says. Does that mean we have to put aside the hope of a soft landing, anywhere in the world? Emma suggests we haven’t seen the cumulative impact of the tightening of policy yet because it takes time to filter through. But what about government spending, in Australia, the US and Europe? Does it help or hinder the fight against inflation, and does it provide opportunities for investors. Emma give her take on the macro picture and the philosophy behind Janus Henderson’s approach to investing, and talks about Australia’s opportunity for investors – a mix of stability and instability and knowing what to do with it. Also, if the slow decline in central bank rates is one of the surprises of 2024, what does Emma think will be the next surprise that most people aren’t seeing? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E151 · Thu, June 27, 2024
US Core PCE deflator. Why you need to look at the second decimal place.
Friday 28th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t a lot of data of significance around overnight, but the combination of a range of weak data prints fuelled some hope that the fed will cut sooner than markets had been moved towards. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a slight overnight rally on Australian bonds was likely to be a response to what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser has been saying, suggesting a partial CPI print for one month was hardly enough to base rate expectations on, and there’s a lot more data before the August meeting. The key number today is the US Core PC deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Markets will be very sensitive to this number, with Ray suggesting its important to look to the second decimal place because, on an annual basis, that can make all the difference. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E150 · Wed, June 26, 2024
Australia’s inflationary shock and what it changes
Thursday 27th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday’s inflation number for Australia was a big surprise, pushing up yields, particularly at the front end, and pushing back expectations for cuts by the RBA. Some commentators – not NAB – are arguing this reinforces the case for a rate rise. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says travel was a largely responsible for the rise. He also talks about speculation from the RBA’s Chris Kent about the neutral rate, being somewhat higher than many might have expected. This morning’s other big story is the fall in the Yen to a 38 year low, and the response from China. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E149 · Tue, June 25, 2024
Canada’s turn for an upside inflation surprise
Wednesday 26th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Canada’s inflation came in hotter than expected in May and that’s pushed up Canadian bond yields overnight, but there’s been limited reaction to that – or anything really – on currency markets. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the print has pushed back expectations for the Bank of Canada to cut again in July. What happens next depends on the data. We get more Australian data today, with the CPI print for May and a speech by the RBA’s Chrisopher Kent. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E148 · Mon, June 24, 2024
NVIDIA’s correction, the Yen’s fall and the US-Europe divide
Tuesday 25th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There are three broad themes on today’s podcast. First, a missed day on US equities again, with falls in the S&P and NASDAQ. NVIDIA shares are well down, but even a minor correction is only a deny in their upward trajectory this year. There’s also the divide between the European and US economies, evidenced by last weeks PMIs. But is the difference really that great. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril agrees with the ECB’S Isabel Schnabel that, when it coms to fighting inflation, they’re not that far apart so it would be wrong to assume a divergence in policy by the two central banks. The other theme is the continued fall in the Yen and the repercussions it could have across the region, including the Australian dollar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E147 · Sun, June 23, 2024
Europeans PMIs sluggish, US stronger
Monday 24th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB PMIs on Friday continued to show the dichotomy between Europe and the US. Even within Europe we saw clear evidence of the weakness within Germany. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what these latest PMI numbers mean for central banks. Could the strong US print delay the Fed into next year, whilst providing the reasoning for the ECB to perhaps move a little faster? It all depends on the inflation data, of course. And we don’t have to wait long for that, with thew Fed’s preferred measure, the core PCE deflator out at the end of the week and European CPIs ahead of that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E146 · Fri, June 21, 2024
Weekend Edition: France’s shift right – a challenge for Europe?
Friday 21st June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Markets reacted rather swiftly to the news that President Macron had called a snap election for France, just after his own party had been heavily beaten in the European elections by Marine Le Pen’s Front National. This week Phil talks to Anne Bucher, from Bruegel, an independent European economic think tank. Anne is a former Director-General in the European Commission until October 2020 – in fa ct, she joined the commission in 1983 working across a wide variety of policy areas over may years. She has an innate knowledge of European politics. So, how does she see the French situation play out? Can we expect the more extreme elements of the Front National agenda to be watered down? Has the UK’s Liz Truss moment served as a warning bell for any party promoting higher debt? Whilst we can expect some compromise, Anne says the big casualty will be progress. As the EU fights battles with the right it’ll struggle to develop a cohesive plan for growth and climate change. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E145 · Thu, June 20, 2024
A Swiss Lead in the Central Bank Euros
Friday 21st June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Europe is in the midst of the group rounds of the Euros, but when it comes to central bank cuts Switzerland is already the champion, with Britain the favourite to cut next. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through yesterday’s decisions by the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Norge’s Bank. In the US markets seemed unfazed by Neel Kashkari’s claims that hitting the Fed’s inflation target might take a year or two. Perhaps his views were surpassed by more soft data overnight, including another rise in jobless claims. New Zealand’s GDP was a little higher than expected, but it won’t last, says Sally. And tonight the PMI data-dump for Germany, France, the Euro area, the UK and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E144 · Wed, June 19, 2024
UK on target, markets take aim at France
Thursday 20th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK, which has seen inflation rise to one of the highest levels, is also one of the first to get it down to target, with the headline rate down at 2% yesterday. Even so, the Bank of England won’t cut rates when they meet today, although perhaps three members of the panel might call for it. Het markets are now fully pricing the first cut at the back end of the year. NAB is expecting August. NAB’s Gavin Friend explains why the variety of opinions and expectations. He also talks about the EU’s plans to implement penalties for the large number of member states who are holding too much debt. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank and Swiss National bank meet today. He Swiss re expected to cut rates and win a football match. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E133 · Tue, June 18, 2024
Hawkish RBA, NVIDIA number one
Wednesday 19th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The most valuable company in the world is not Apple or Microsoft. It's NVIDIA. Can anyone stop them? Meanwhile, the RBA kept rates on hold but in a way that was more hawkish that expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the committee even discussed the potential for rate hikes. NAB still expects a cut in November, nonetheless. In the US retail sales were weaker whilst government spending rose. Could all this extra government spending delay the fall in US inflation? Today UK CPI numbers are released and the US takes the day off, keeping NVIDIA on top for another 24 hours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E132 · Mon, June 17, 2024
France settles down, US equities hit new highs again
Tuesday 18th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB French politics still has a long way to run, but markets have calmed down a bit on the hope that a LePen government might not be so radical. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says ECB chief economist calmed markets by suggesting there was nothing disorderly in bond markets that would see the need for the central bank to intervene. It’s going to be an uneventful RBA meeting today, with rates on hold and no new forecasts to map out the path of cuts for this year and next. All in all, a fairly quiet session. Except US equities, of course, that broke records, again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E131 · Sun, June 16, 2024
A week big on banks and politics
Monday 17th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Last week was dominated by two big stories. First ,the dichotomy between US inflation data and the downgrade of rate cuts predicted by the Fed. Secondly, the snap French election , which could turn about to be very bad news for President Macron. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the market reaction to both by the end of the week, along with a sprinkling of data from Friday, the BoJ meeting and loan data from China. This week we hear rate decisions for the RBA, the BoE, the Swiss National Bank and the Norge’s Bank. Ray explains which one might cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E130 · Fri, June 14, 2024
Weekend Edition: Private credit markets – what to know
Friday 14th June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . There’s been growing interest in private credit markets lately. So, what exactly is it? Phil talks to Gillian Gordon, Head of Alternative Investments and Responsible Investing at JB Were, who says it’s basically non-bank lending. So why would businesses choose to borrow directly from investors rather than issuing bonds, and what’s in it for the lender? Take twenty minutes to get across the ins and outs of private credit, and why there’s been so much interest in it lately. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E129 · Thu, June 13, 2024
One dot already beaten by the data
Friday 14th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You might have expected that bond yields would start creeping back up again after the Fed’s hawkish ‘one dot plot’ meeting yesterday. Instead yields fell, as the latest producer prices echoed the softness in the CPI read before the Fed. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it feels like price pressures, after a hot start to the year, are starting to cool a bit. So, does that mean the Fed’s predictions of just one rate cut this year are already out of date, just one day later? There’s also a discussion about share, currency and bond movements in Europe, the take-outs from yesterday’s Australian labour market data and what to expect from the Bank of Japan today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E128 · Wed, June 12, 2024
Just one dot, even as US inflation dips
Thursday 13th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's been a fascinating session overnight. Early Wednesday US markets responded positively to weaker CPI numbers. Bond yields fell sharply, alongside a dip in the US dollar and more enthusiasm for equities. There must have been an expectation that the numbers would be reflected in a more dovish approach by the Fed, but the dot plot from FOMC members told a very different story, with the median expectation for just one cut this year. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the response, highlighted that the plot is a set of opinions, not a forecast and its he hard numbers that count. The next of those will be US producer prices out today, which fed into the PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. So, markets haven’t fully pulled back to their pre-CPI positions, but can we expect that if the producer prices aren’t as encouraging? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E127 · Tue, June 11, 2024
Fed versus the iPhone
Wednesday 12th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A mixed set of numbers overnight. The UK’s employment numbers showed wage pressures remain, whilst the NAB business survey also demonstrated inflation stickiness. NAB’s Ray Attrill says wages are a lagging indicator, and you can’t jump to conclusions that any of these numbers will change the central banks’ current trajectory. The path of cuts expected by the Fed becomes clearer with the release of their dot plot tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, bond yields fell overnight, helped by a positive auction result, and shares have been helped by Apple announcing the new AI iPhone. Economies and households might be struggling but we’ll always get excited by a new gadget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E126 · Mon, June 10, 2024
US jobs hot, Macron snaps
Tuesday 11th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Non-farm payrolls came in a lot higher than expected in the US on Friday. Not only were there more people in jobs, but wages are also rising faster than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent how uncomfortable this will be for the Fed and what it’s done to market expectations There will be a lot of focus on the FOMC meeting this week, with the dot plot telling us when the Fed thinks we’ll see rate cuts. Whilst the ECB has been working hard to reel back expectations for rate cuts in Europe, President Macron has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons by calling a snap election in France, in response to a lurch right in the weekend European Parliamentary elections. It’s not going to be a dull week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E125 · Fri, June 07, 2024
Weekend Edition: Mookhey’s Balancing Act in Australia’s Most Unaffordable State
Friday 7th June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . On 18th June Daniel Mookhey, the NSW Treasurer, presents his second budget to the state parliament. This week he talks to Phil about the challenges he faces, starting with house prices. They continue to rise, despite repeated efforts by governments over the years to bring them under control. How much of it is down to supply and what can the government do to increase it? Infrastructure building is part of the solution, says Mookhey. But that costs money and, if the NSW government increases spending couldn’t it add to the inflation problem? Is that something he worries about? In this half hour discussion Phil talks to the Treasurer about how he balances government spending against the drive to build the foundations for future growth, whilst facing the challenges of a less egalitarian society and a hefty state debt. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E124 · Thu, June 06, 2024
ECB’s Hawkish Cut. Hardly a Surprise.
Friday 7th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB cut interest rates as expected, but there’s no clear indication of when the next cut will come. NAB’s Gavin Friend says staff forecasts have pushed inflation higher. Hence, a hawkish cut. So much so, you wonder whether they would have carried through if it hadn’t been so clearly signalled beforehand. Now the focus is on the US labour market and what it means for the Fed. The ADP jobs number came in soft earlier in the week and the jobless claims number rose last night, with a softer read is expected tonight. Just as important ifs the question of wages. Q1 labour costs were downgraded yesterday, so will the fall carry through to the May number tonight? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E123 · Wed, June 05, 2024
Let the easing begin
Thursday 6th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities hit new highs today and bond yields continued to fall. The Bank of Canada cut rates overnight with indications there will be more to follow. They pipped the ECB to the post, with their cut expected later today. Equities and bonds have been buoyed by positive sentiment, helped by a surprisingly strong ISM Services number for the US, after a weaker ADP jobs report – combined they add to the case for cuts from the Fed. NABs Ken Crompton joins Phil today to talk through all this central bank action, as well as digging into yesterday’s Australian GDP data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E122 · Tue, June 04, 2024
Cool Jobs, Majority Lost
Wednesday 5th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond markets continue their rally, with yields down again this morning. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s in part down to the JOLTS data in the US overnight, which showed job openings slowing. That’s pushed forward expectations for Fed rate cuts slightly. He also points to the election result in India, which saw the PM lose his majority, which could impact future growth and, therefore, energy demand. We’ve seen commodity prices coming down again, hitting the Aussie dollar. Today we get Australia’s GDP for Q1. What should we expect? And could the bank of Canada be the first G7 central bank to cut rates in this cycle? We’ll find out later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E121 · Mon, June 03, 2024
Slightly softer
Tuesday 4th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Longer end yields pushed higher overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says it was in part down to softer manufacturing data from the US, although there’s a chance markets have overreacted to what was a pretty mixed picture. For example, whilst the Manufacturing ISM fell, the Manufacturing PMI, for the same month, released at the same time, rose. Markets are hoping, though, that softer data on the back of falling inflation means more cuts can be squeezed in by the Fed at the back end of the year. There’s also discussion on the Australian minimum wage decision, why oil has fallen so sharply overnight and the importance of US job openings data tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E120 · Sun, June 02, 2024
Europe’s sticky mess
Monday 3rd June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Europe’s core inflation number rose slightly on Friday. That won’t change the ECB’s bolted-on decision to cut rates this week, but the likelihood of more than one other cut this year is diminishing. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Friday’s Core PCE Deflator number in the US was lower than last time, but if it had been 0.002% higher it would be the same as last time. Not enough to change expectations from the Fed, with speakers now in the blackout period ahead of the June 14 meeting. Today |Australia’s wage award decision will be watched, and GBP for Q1 is out this week too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E119 · Fri, May 31, 2024
Weekend Edition: How could Trump change the Fed?
Friday 31st May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Assuming he stays out of prison, Donald Trump has an even chance of winning the next Presidency. What does that mean for the Fed? Trump has often argued for the need to keep interest rates low, so he’s probably not too happy with the higher for longer strategy being used to fight inflation right now. We also know he wants to challenge the independence of the central bank. But how would that work exactly? On this Weekend Edition Mary Rosenbaum, Managing Director of the Observatory Group, an analyst firm in Washington specialising in geopolitics and macroeconomics, gives her take on what President Trump 2.0 could do to achieve his low-interest aims. Will he try and replace people in the Fed, or change the Federal Reserve Act so the government has more control over how the Fed operates, with Treasury members on the board perhaps. Or will Trump resort to bullying the Fed to see things his way? Mary talks through the various scenarios and what the implications could be on bonds, interest rates and the dollar. Some useful insights that’s worth half an hour of your weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E118 · Thu, May 30, 2024
Will the PCE Deflator pressure the Fed?
Friday 31st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation is taking a long time to come down, everywhere it seems. Europe reports its CPI today, but the numbers from Germany and Spain have already shown it’s taking longer than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about expectations around the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Deflator, out later today. With Fed speakers doing their best to pus expectations further back a high number here could be the ammunition needed for those expected no cuts this year, and maybe a rise. That’s an argument made by Bill Dudley on Bloomberg today. Yet there are many signs of a weakening global economy, the US included, which will give hope to those expecting cuts sooner rather than much later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E117 · Wed, May 29, 2024
Inflation woes
Thursday 30th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australia’s monthly CPI reads are always to be treated cautiously. Nonetheless, the surprise rise in inflation did create a response on Asian markets, pushing Aussie yields higher. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about how weaker bond demand in US 7-year note auction added to the bond sell-off. Australia wasn’t the only inflation surprise. German CPI also rose. The ECB is wedded to a cut next week, but will they deliver the 60bp priced in for this year? In New Zealand the question for today is can the government meet all their budgetary promises without adding to the inflation worries. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E116 · Tue, May 28, 2024
US bond appetite eases, consumer confidence lifts
Tuesday 28th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were two bond auctions in the US overnight – for 2 year and 5 year treasuries. Both saw weaker demand than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if investors are weary of the size of bond supply this year. Meanwhile US consumer confidence rose more than expected. Yesterday we saw weaker retail numbers than expected, but part of that can be explained away by the timing of Easter. Today there's the CPI number for Australia, although it’s not expected to influence the RBA’s sense of timing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E115 · Mon, May 27, 2024
Europe assuming ‘maximum optionality’
Tuesday 28th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a quiet 24 hours with the UK and US on holiday, with the bond and equity markets closed in each place. But Europe was open for business, although the German IFO numbers offered little to get excited about – staying in the same place as last month. One ECB speaker said after the June rate cut, the central bank will retain ‘maximum optionality’ – central bank speak for we’re not sure what happens next. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril guides us through the data, and the commentary from the ECB and the BoJ. Australia’s retail sales numbers are out this morning, along with producer prices for Japan, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report out tonight in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E114 · Sun, May 26, 2024
Fanatical confusion
Monday 27th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Friday was a quiet end to the week, but the NSDAQ still managed to touch a new high. Bond markets closed early in the US, though, in readiness for a long weekend, that will see a slow start to this week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says trade was light so we can’t draw any definitive conclusions about too much. Even Nobel economist Paul Krugman is unsure where things are heading. He said he could argue either way as to whether or not interest rates will remain higher for longer, and whether R* rate should return to 2019 benchmark levels, or has it moved higher. Does anyone know? After a quiet start, this week picks up with the US PCE deflator on Friday, and Australian retail sales and CPI prints before that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E113 · Fri, May 24, 2024
Weekend Edition: Tech. Too big to ignore? Or too much of a good thing?
Friday 18th May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . NVIDIA is now the third biggest listing in the US, with a market cap of 2.3 trillion dollars. Their earning results this week were an upside surprise for revenue, margins and forward guidance. So how far has the US tech growth story got to go? Phil talks to NABTrade’s Gemma Dale about the rise and rise of tech. Is it pulling investment away form Australian domestic stocks? They cite some interesting research from NAB that demonstrates how super funds have been selling US shares because the growth has been too strong and they need to rebalance their portfolios. Retail investors, of course, aren’t limited in the same way, so should they hold on for the ride? And what part does Australia play in the tech and environment megatrends? Can we expect some high growth companies as well? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E112 · Thu, May 23, 2024
Are strong PMIs pushing cuts back even further?
Friday 24th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Stronger than expected PMIs in the US – for manufacturing and services – have pushed bond yields higher. Equities, which started the session strong on the back of the NVIDIA earnings, have also fallen sharply today as pricing for rate cuts by the Fed gets pushed back further. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the data for the US does need to continue to soften for the Fed to deliver on cuts, and these numbers went against that trend. In Europe the latest ECB wages data also challenged expectations for moves beyond the already signalled June cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E111 · Wed, May 22, 2024
End of rein for soaked Sunak , whilst NVIDIA storms ahead
Thursday 23rd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK Prime Minister stood out I the pouring rain to announce a July 4 election for the UK, months ahead of expectations. Perhaps he doesn’t think the economy will improve so he might as well go sooner. It comes on the same day as the latest UK CPI numbers, which didn’t fall as far as expected. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether this could all push rate cuts out further. There’s a worry in some quarters that the Fed could be in the same boat, with FOMC minutes just out. In NZ Adrian Orr said the RBNZ even considered a rate hike for yesterday’s meeting. Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s latest earnings showed Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E110 · Tue, May 21, 2024
Rocky copper and worrying wages
Wednesday 22nd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equities were quite contained a day out from the NVIDIA earnings, although the S&P did hit another all time high. Copper prices continue to rise from its new high on Monday. Phil asks Ray what’s driving this – real factors or a speculative bubble? European wages data came in high, so much so that you’d be wondering why the ECB is so committed to a June rate cut. Canada saw inflation growth slow, and with the RBNZ tonight Phil asks Ray for his take on the order of bank cuts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E109 · Mon, May 20, 2024
AI mania and gold fever
Tuesday 21st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s an absence of solid data. Maybe that’s why equity markets have reverted to AI-hype, ahead of NVIDIA earnings later in the week. There’s also been significant gains in the price of silver, gold and copper. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about why precious metals are doing so well. None of this distracts from the commentary from central banks, with more from the UK and US tonight, as well as the minutes of the last RBA meeting locally. And the first fo the week’s significant CPI prints – first off, Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E108 · Sun, May 19, 2024
Slow moves
Monday 20th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a quiet start today after a week that finished slowly. Skye Masters discusses how bond yields have been slowly rising, unwinding the moves after the surprise CPI growth earlier in the month. Central banks still seem to be doing their best to warn markets not to expect rate cuts too soon. Isabel Schnabel from the ECB did just that on Friday, warning that, although a June cut was appropriate, a ‘cautious approach is needed beyond that’. If Friday was quiet, expect more of the same today, although data picks up later in the week, including CPI for UK, Canada and Japan, and the latest RBNZ meeting, plus NVIDIA earnings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E107 · Fri, May 17, 2024
Weekend edition: A budget that sets fiscal policy against monetary policy
Friday 18th May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . There’s been a lot said about the Labor federal budget this week. One of the big questions is whether the energy subsidy alongside the tax cuts and rent assistance, will do enough to bring down inflation. In this Weekend Edition JB Were’s Sally Auld argues that, whilst we might see a reduction in headline inflation, the government’s fiscal expansion is at odds with the RBA’s monetary policy and it is likely to delay any moves down in interest rates. The extra government spending might be worthwhile if it can be shown to improve productivity, but its not clear how that will happen. There is recognition, however, that these are unusual times and the need for greater onshoring and a need for governments to fast track support for emerging sectors. But how? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E106 · Thu, May 16, 2024
Exuberance sees Dow pass 40k mark
Friday 17th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Even though equities fell form their record highs of yesterday, that wasn’t until after the Dow passed the 40k mark for the first time ever. JBWere’s Sally Auld is surprised at the confidence in US equity markets, particularly as data is showing more signs of softness and Fed speakers continue to talk about waiting longer for cuts. JPMorgan’s James Dimon also expressed concerns about the inflationary impact of the rising US deficit. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers, which saw the unemployment rate rise more than expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E105 · Wed, May 15, 2024
Do the inflation and retail numbers cement in two cuts for the Fed?
Thursday 16th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI came in broadly as expected overnight, but the markets reacted anyway. Perhaps they feared another upside surprise. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the slowdown in retail numbers also raised expectations slightly that the Fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the year is out. But what about the RBA? The wages data yesterday was helpful, but not enough to move the goal posts. What about the employment numbers today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E104 · Tue, May 14, 2024
Holding out for the hero stat
Wednesday 15th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are waiting for US CPI later today. There was some market reaction to he producer price numbers from the US, which NAB’s Gavin Friend described as sticker shock. The core number for April was higher than expected, but markets quickly retraced steps when the March number was revised down. In short, not such a big move after all. UK employment numbers were a little stronger than expected in March, along with wages data. Australia gets its wage inflation data today, as markets come to terms with last night’s Federal Budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E103 · Mon, May 13, 2024
Budget day: Helping or hindering the inflation battle?
Tuesday 14th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It is of course, budget day in Australia today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says government subsidies will help bring headline inflation down, but the rise in household spending could delay the slowdown in the underlying inflation rate. The speed at which inflation will fall continues to be the question on everyone’s lips around the world. For the US the PPI (producer prices index) will be watched keenly because it feeds through directly to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. CPI numbers tomorrow will add to the picture. The UK’s employment and wages data today will show whether the upside surprise in GDP in the last quarter is being reflected in the labour market, which could also delay the slowdown in inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E102 · Sun, May 12, 2024
Warning signs on inflation persistence?
Monday 13th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were a few signs that inflation globally might be taking longer to fall. Canada’s surprise employment numbers pushed yields higher, and the UKs CPI was an upside surprise on Friday as well. Consumer inflation expectations in the US also came in higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says al these factors could push back rate cuts a little further. And what about locally? What is the potential impact of more government spending and wage increases in the budget tomorrow? Meanwhile, demand is more of an issue for China than inflation. Aggregate financing fell for the first time in 20 years and Joe Biden is expected to announce a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E101 · Fri, May 10, 2024
Weekend Edition: Fixing Australia’s productivity problem
Friday 10th May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Productivity gains have been slipping, not just in Australia, but around the world. The problem locally is accentuated by the shift away from a heavily automated resources sector, where significant value is added per employee. If we can’t manage the same level of efficiency as we switch to more labour-intensive output, particularly in the services sector, should we assume that productivity growth will not return to pre-pandemic levels. It’s a question Phil puts to Danielle Wood, chair of the Productivity Commission. They discuss what is being done to fix Australia’s productivity shortfall and what can we learn from countries where productivity is higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E100 · Thu, May 09, 2024
BoE talks cuts, soonish. Market unphased.
Friday 10th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t much market reaction as the Bank of England kept rates on hold but said what many already knew, that they will have to cut rates in the coming months. The ECB seems wedded to the idea of a June cut, with the accounts of their last meeting out today, but there is some speculation about how quickly they will follow through. Canada’s unemployment is expected to tick higher, adding pressure for a rate cut there although, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, it’s wage inflation that really counts. The UK is expected to see GDP return to positive territory today, and China’s PPI and CPI numbers are out over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E99 · Wed, May 08, 2024
Data drought with no clear direction, ahead of BoE
Thursday 9th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t any tier one data overnight to give markets any clear direction. You could say there was an air of subduedness. The Riksbank cut rates, as suggested yesterday, but one ECB member is concerned that going too early, against a Fed that keeps rates on hold longer, could drive the Euro lower and add to inflation concerns. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the problem emerges after one or two cuts, alongside a Fed that’s not moving. So what’s the Bank of England’s strategy? August seems the most likely month for a cut, says Gavin, but we’ll find out more at the meeting and the press conference that follows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E98 · Tue, May 07, 2024
Is an RBA hike an emerging possibility?
Wednesday 8th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB is still expecting that the RBA’s next move will be a cut in November, because yesterday’s meeting did raise the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains too persistent. NAB’s Skye Masters says the market reaction was tame because none of this came as a surprise. We’ve known that inflation was taking time to come down, and the revisions to the RBA’s inflation forecasts yesterday simply reaffirmed that belief. Neel Kashkari from the Minneapolis Fed also spoke of the possibility of a hike if inflation and jobs remained strong. In Europe it’s a different story and there’s a real possibility that the Riksbank will cut rates today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E97 · Mon, May 06, 2024
RBA gives it all, but is any of it new?
Tuesday 7th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA meets today and is expected to keep rates on hold. They also release their revised inflation forecasts in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there will be some market sensitivity around these numbers, as well as the press conference, although there’s a firm expectation that rates won’t budge today. There is one central bank that might cut rates this week though. Listen in for more on that, plus the hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East and a sprinkling of second tier Euro data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E96 · Sun, May 05, 2024
US jobs cool and services soften
Monday 6th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The non-farm payrolls in the US came in lower than expected, with a rise in the unemployment rate. NAAB’s Ken Crompton says we shouldn’t get too excited by the unemployment rate because it’s a small move when you take it to the second decimal place. The Services ISM was also weaker, falling into contraction territory. The impact has been to bring forward rate cut expectations a little, with a 75% chance the Fed will move in September. In Australia home loans data wasn’t particularly encouraging reading. The focus is now on the RBA tomorrow, then state budges later in the week. Will spending add to pressure on jobs, slowing the fall in inflation? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E95 · Fri, May 03, 2024
The Weekend Edition - The fundamentals of the Magnificent Seven
Friday 3rd May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . They dominated the global share market last year and many have enjoyed tremendous growth so far this year, with NVIDIA as the clear outperformer. Whilst there’s a been a bit of an adjustment lately, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies in Connecticut, says there’s still plenty of momentum and their own analysis points to prices pushing higher. Katie’s approach is to build a portfolio based on technicals. “I do read macro strategists work”, she says in this weekend’s podcast, ”but it won’t drive our decision making process”. In other words, any macro development will be reflected in the indicators they follow at some point. And those technicals are painting a positive picture for most of the big tech stocks right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E94 · Thu, May 02, 2024
US productivity slips adding to labour costs
Friday 3rd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US productivity has slipped quite markedly in Q1, that’s pushed up labour costs – is that something to worry about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Gavin Friend, who says markets are still responding to yesterday’s dovish slant from the Fed. Non-farm payrolls will be watched keenly tonight, along with US Services PMI. Locally Australia’s home loans data is out today. Phil and Gavin also talk through revisions to the OECD’s growth forecasts for the US, Australia, Europe and the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E93 · Wed, May 01, 2024
Fed’s lack of progress
Thursday 2nd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rates on hold for the sixth meeting in a row this morning, warning that there had ben a lack of further progress towards their 2% inflation target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it didn’t really change market pricing for a cut, with the first fully priced move still looking like December. But there was a fair bit discussed during the press conference, from the terminal rate, the impact of the election and the possibility of a rate hike. Jerome Powell gave a cautious ‘no’ to the rate hike. Listen in for the latest from the Fed and the latest data, including JOLTS from last night and Australia’s trade data today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E92 · Tue, April 30, 2024
Bond yields push higher, heavy losses in equities a day out from the Fed
Wednesday 1st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A month-end a day out from the Fed decision in the midst of some earning results for some heavyweight stocks, its hardly surprising we saw a lot of volatility in bonds, currencies and equities in this session. NAB’s Skye Masters says yields pushed higher on the release of US employment costs, which were higher than expected, contribute g to more of a push back in the timing of Fed rate cuts. Jerome Powell would have to be uber hawkish to pish rates any higher says Skye, but we’ll know this time tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E91 · Mon, April 29, 2024
A sticky last mile for Europe
Tuesday 30th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB German inflation numbers overnight were stickier than expected, presenting a challenge for the ECB, one of the few central banks that has been talking-up the mid-term rate cuts. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril if this puts June cut in jeopardy, or the expected follow-up cuts later in the year. Elsewhere we saw a sharp reversal in the value of the Yen. Has it been driven by intervention, or at least the anticipation of it? Australia’s retail numbers will be the focus locally today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E90 · Sun, April 28, 2024
Waiting longer as inflation persists
Monday 29th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There weren’t big moves in bond yields but that could all change with a busy week for US data, including ISMs and Payrolls, along with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. To add some spice to the equation The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump, if he were to become President again, might challenge the independence of the central bank. There was a strong move down in the Yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan did little to support the currency and there’s a question as to whether they will lift rates at all this year. With inflation so low, do they need to? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E89 · Fri, April 26, 2024
Weekend Edition: Moving up the renewables value chain
Friday 26th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia is well placed in terms of natural resources for the green energy transition. We are already one of the world’s largest exporters of lithium, in-demand for the production of batteries, primarily for electric vehicles. Alison Reeve, Energy and Climate Deputy Program Director at the Grattan Institute, joins Phil to talk about how Australia can gain maximum benefit from the drive for NetZero. Can we, for example, move up the renewables value chain, so we don’t simply extract minerals and ship overseas. There’s an enormous opportunity, says Alison, provided we recognise the strengths we provide and where in the chain we stop adding value. In this wide raging discussion they also look at the growth of sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen’s place in Australia’s future and the pitfalls of localised solar cell production. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E88 · Thu, April 25, 2024
Stagflation anyone?
Wednesday 24th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is stagflation on the horizon for America? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril after we saw slower growth and rising prices in data out on Wednesday. Could slow growth impact the euphoria around the Magnificent Seven? Well not just yet, as Microsoft and Alphabet have both enjoyed double digit percentage growth in after-hours prices o the back of strong earnings data. They also discuss Australia’s latest CPI data which will mean a revised forecast from the RBA, but what does it do to the speed of rate cuts? And could the Bank of Japan surprise today, as the Yen hits another low? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E87 · Tue, April 23, 2024
PMIs show narrowing US-Europe gap, Inflation Day for Australia
Wednesday 24th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB PMIs showed some strength in Europe, but were generally weaker than expected in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s the US numbers that generated a market reaction because it adds to the leading indicators that challenge the notion of US exceptionalism and that the gap between the US and Europe is closing. Today the quarterly CPI print for Australia is unlikely to move the dial on RBA cuts, even if it comes in slightly lower than expected. Plus, Tesla’s earnings results, which have seen a rise in after hours pricing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E86 · Mon, April 22, 2024
The Equities Strike Back (for now)
Tuesday 23rd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The force of AI is strong it seems. It’s certainly pushing equities back up again in the US ahead of earnings results for several of the Magnificent Seven later this week. Meanwhile, bond markets and currencies have calmed down, although the pound is weaker on expectations for an earlier cut by the Bank of England. Today PMIs for the UK, US and Europe will give a clearer indication of the relative strength of each economy and, perhaps, justify the different schedules being pursued by the various central banks. JBWere's Sally Auld talks through it all on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E85 · Sun, April 21, 2024
Is there a tech correction going on?
Monday 22nd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The magnificent seven have been taking a hit in the US share market. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the forward-guidance for Netflix wasn’t received well, and four more of th large tech stocks report this week. Meanwhile, there were further signals of delays in Fed rate cuts, whilst the impetus in Canada, Europe and the UK seems to be, if anything, moving the other way. But, assuming no further escalation in the Middle East, it seems likely that US equities might be the focus in the early part of this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E84 · Fri, April 19, 2024
The Weekend Edition: Europe needs a confidence boost
Friday 19th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week we saw the divide between European despondency and American exceptionalism widen a little further. The IMF upgraded their US growth forecasts, whilst nudging Europe’s a little lower. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Melanie de Bono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in London, says the economy is already benefiting from real wages growth which should accelerate domestic demand, whilst a June cut by the ECB seems likely, with Pantheon predicting four cuts in total this year. That’ll free up even more household spending whilst boosting the investment opportunities for business. But is there the confidence in the economy to support that shift in demand and production? And what of a likely trade dispute with China and the potential of increased geopolitical volatility in the Middle East? Could they impact inflation and hinder Europe’s relatively lacklustre growth opportunity? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E83 · Thu, April 18, 2024
Next Fed move, backend of the year, unless it’s up!
Friday 19th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Fed speakers are increasingly pushing expectations for cuts further back in the year. John Williams even suggested he’d entertain the idea of a rate rise if it was warranted. That’s coming from one of the more dovish members of the FOMC says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Ken also takes us through yesterday’s employment numbers for Australia and looks ahead to Japan’s CPI and UK retail numbers today. And we give you the latest Netflix earnings – a knockout for new subscribers. Plus a taste of what’s to come on the Weekend Edition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E82 · Wed, April 17, 2024
UK inflation slows, but not enough. Aussie employment numbers today.
Thursday 18th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were mixed overnight. The dollar lost a bit of ground, AUD and NZD outperformed, bond yields fell, while US equities have continued to struggle. The only geopolitics to speak of came from Joe Biden talking upping the need to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium imports. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it as a bit of electioneering and pacifying the US steel industry. Today Australia’s employment numbers will be the focus. The unemployment rate rose considerably in February but as Rodrigo points out, these numbers can be very volatile. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E81 · Tue, April 16, 2024
It’s taking longer, says Powell
Wednesday 17th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s been a significant shift in sentiment from central bankers at the IMF meeting in Washington. Jerome Powell, who had previously seemed happy to accept rate cuts relatively soon, is now signalling it will take longer. IMF forecasts that significantly upgraded US growth for this year might have added to the pressure to cool things a little. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England, who it was assumed was prepared to wait till after the Fed, is now talking about inflation coming down, suggesting a cut sooner might be possible. Perhaps a sharp rise in unemployment influenced his thinking. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the latest data and words from the mouths of central bank speakers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E80 · Mon, April 15, 2024
US retail moves markets, not the Middle East
Tuesday 16th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The latest retail numbers showed the resilience in the US economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says its surprising given the fall in household savings, but there are more people in work feeding the spending habit. These stronger than expected numbers haven’t changed expectations for the timing of rate cuts by much, but bond yields have pushed higher and lifted the US dollar a little further too. A weaker Yen and Aussie dollar have been two of the consequences. Today employment data for the UK, CPI for Canada and GDP for China. Plus the latest forecasts from the IMF. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E79 · Sun, April 14, 2024
Drone attack. Will Israel retaliate?
Monday 15th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB How markets respond to the Middle East situation this week really depends on whether Israel retaliates. The expectation of the weekend’s drone attack on Israel by Iran pushed the US dollar higher, bond yields lower and caused some damage to equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there hasn’t been much response in early trade today, but Bloomberg Economics is predicting a sizeable spike in oil prices if this broadens to a regional war, with the subsequent impact on global GDP and inflation. There’s also discussion on China’s trade numbers from Friday, the weakening Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and what to look out for today, besides the latest geopolitics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E78 · Fri, April 12, 2024
Weekend Edition: The "women with money" opportunity
Friday 12th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Financial advisors could be missing a trick. So many of them are men, used to dealing with men, yet the customer base is shifting. High net worth women are accumulating their own assets, from their own lucrative careers, from intergenerational wealth passed to them, from managing their parents asets or as proceeds from a divorce. Data from last year showed that male millionaires were growing at a rate of 3.6% per year, whereas female millionaires were growing at 5.7% per year. So, is this industry geared up for this? JBWere CEO Maria Lykouras doesn’t think the industry is adapting fast enough, which is why she commissioned research, summarised in a new report on the Growth of Women and Wealth (pdf). On the Weekend Edition she explains where the industry is falling short and how it can adapt, and what she is doing to get JBWere up to speed on the opportunity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E77 · Thu, April 11, 2024
Europe is getting ready, without being triumphant
Friday 12th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Christine Lagarde said a few members of the ECB were ready to cut rates now, even as the ECB President announced that, for now, rates will stay on hold. Was this the strongest suggestion yet that a June cut will happen? Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Fiend what he took from the ECB meeting overnight. Meanwhile, US PMIs didn’t help the case for those looking for signs of US prices falling faster. Quite the reverse. Bad news for the UK too, with one MPC member saying the BoE shouldn’t cut before the Fed, although that simply supports NAB’s base case that the BoE is some way away yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E76 · Wed, April 10, 2024
US CPI surprise. The last mile just got longer
Thursday 11th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation is not coming down quickly. There’s been a lot of evidence for that lately and the latest CPI numbers can be added to the list. The response from markets have been quite pronounced, with a significant rise in yields, a sharp climb in the US dollar and a fall in equities. NAB’s Sky Masters says the moves reflect markets who have been holding out for a June rate cut – now reality has hit. The Bank of Canada and RBNZ both kept rates on hold, with a similar message that they need more time before considering cuts. It seems the ECB might be the first to cut – we’ll get some fresh insights at their meeting later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E75 · Tue, April 09, 2024
Two central banks and lots of unhappy small businesses
Wednesday 10th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI numbers are out today along with a couple of meetings of central banks - the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the expectations for both those meetings, although clearly both are expected to be on hold. So which one will make the move first? We also discuss yesterday's NAB business survey and consumer confidence, as well as diving into the surprising results from the NFIB business optimism index in America which is at its lowest level since 2012. And Phil eats some humble pie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E74 · Mon, April 08, 2024
Treasury yields hit year highs on creeping doubts about Fed easing
Tuesday 9th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB 10 year Treasury yields hit a year to date high overnight as markets continue to push back expectations for the number and timing of FOMC cuts this year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed’s Goolsbee described the US economy as being in a normal boom-time – not the environment for cuts. But there are signs that other parts of the world might be recovering a little faster. Een Europe is showing signs of a recovery. At home yesterday’s housing finance was stronger than expected, another factor that could delay the RBA. Today the NFIB small business survey is out, but ray says the key small business number is already out. Listen in for more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E73 · Sun, April 07, 2024
US payrolls too hot for the Fed?
Monday 8th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US non-farm payrolls showed many more new workers than expected last month, but an increase in the participation rate meant the unemployment rate actually fell. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril why the numbers have pushed back market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. He says, surely they’d be happy to see a broader workforce because it would ease wage inflation pressures? There’s also discussion on rising commodity prices, the record price of gold and yet a falling Australian balance of trade. Three central banks meet in the week ahead. Listen in for more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E72 · Fri, April 05, 2024
Weekend Edition: China’s future – on its terms
Friday 5th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . China is forecasting GDP growth of 5 percent this year. The China Daily suggested last week that the economy was on track to see sustained growth of 4.5 percent each year until 2035. Just how realistic are those ambitions for a country steeped in debt, with large scale developments being forced into administration? Diana Choyleva is Chief Economist at Enodo Economics, a research company based in London that focuses on China. She suggests the short-term target is likely achievable, but the longer term proposition is less certain as the economy struggles to create increased domestic demand whilst undergoing more decoupling from the west. There are further insights available from the Enodo Economics website, including this paper: China Unveils Expansionary Policy In Support Of Xi's Security Objectives - https://bit.ly/3U2xiAE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E71 · Thu, April 04, 2024
Australia’s housing problem, US markets choppy ahead of jobs numbers
Friday 5th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The latest building approvals for Australia show just how bad the housing situation is becoming. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a structural problem that adds to the difficulties the RBA faces in slowing inflation. He talks through the latest NAB forecasts for CPI ahead of the next release later this month. Meanwhile equity markets have been choppy ahead of tonight’s payrolls numbers in the US, whilst the ECB minutes reaffirm that a June cut is likely. But then what? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E70 · Wed, April 03, 2024
Powell waits whilst service sector softens
Thursday 4th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Jerome Powell spoke at the Stamford Forum overnight, reiterating that the Fed was prepared to wait before cutting rates. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are now stating to come to terms with the fact that a June cut is almost certainly off the cards, and three cuts this year are looking less and less likely. But how long do they wait for? The Services ISM was weaker than anticipated, could a delay in cuts cause unnecessary damage to the economy? A June cut is far more likely in Europe, where the Eurozone CPI read came in lower than expected. The ECB meeting minutes out today will be eagerly perused for any indication to the contrary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E69 · Tue, April 02, 2024
Yields rise over expected Fed delays
Wednesday 3rd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields continued to rise in the US overnight, with Europe playing catch-up as it returns from a long Easter weekend. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the adjustment markets are making to their rate cut expectations from the Fed. European bonds also rose even though today’s Eurozone inflation number could be lower than expected. There’s also discussion of the RBA minutes, which seem a little more hawkish than the tone set in the statement and press conference. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E68 · Mon, April 01, 2024
Hopeful data suggests US is heading for ‘no landing’
Tueday 2nd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US manufacturing ISM this morning was stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are seeing more soft-landing evidence from the US, with the Core PCE deflator read on Friday showing prices are rising just 2.8% year on year, whilst spending is rising, and job claims fell last week? Rau suggests its more of a ‘no landing’ situation, if the data holds out. There was good news from China too over the weekend. It might be a short week, but it’s a busy one. Phil and Ray talk through what to expect. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E67 · Thu, March 28, 2024
Weekend Edition: Bronwyn Curtis on central banks and growth
Friday 22nd March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Bronwyn Curtis OBE is an Australian economist living in the UK with an illustrious career in finance. She’s headed Currency and Fixed Income at Deutsche Bank, then later at HSBC, as well as working fo the World Bank in Latin America and Asia, and overseeing development of Bloomberg’s European broadcast operations. Bronwyn joins Phil Dobbie to give her take on where monetary policy is right now and you’ll find some of her observations contradict the consensus. The Fed, for example, she thinks will move later and are unlikely to see through the three cuts markets are expecting. The ECB, meanwhile, have every reason to cut sooner. Longer term she thinks interest rates around 3 percent will be healthier for a growing economy. Listen into a wide-ranging discussion covering Europe, the US, China and the influence of Trump. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E66 · Wed, March 27, 2024
A scramble to the quarter end
Thursday 28th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A early Easter this year is creating the potential for extra volatility the last day or two of the quarter. Even though the Core PC deflator numbers are out at the end of the week, the markets are closed on Friday. That means markets finish the quarter still speculating on the direction inflation is taking. Adding to the volatility is the question about how much intervention we can expect from Japanese authorities as the Yen fell to its lowest level since 1990. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through the days action and looks bac at yesterday’s Australian CPI, as well a s highlighting a new JBWere report looking at the shift in wealth to Australian women. We also look ahead to this afternoon’s Weekend Edition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E65 · Tue, March 26, 2024
Break the glass and get ready for inflation numbers
Wednesday 27th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a session low on significant data and low on market moves. Bond markets have managed to absorb sizeable auctions however, and equities have bounced back as we approach month end and the US inflation data at the end of the week. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through those moves, some of the softer data out f the US and looks ahead to Australia’s CPI today, explaining why this release is more useful than the last. And breaking the glass? Hear comments from on member of the Bank of Canada who says they are facing an emergency when it comes to productivity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E64 · Mon, March 25, 2024
Controlling the Yuan and the Yen
Tuesday 26th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The CNY climbed higher today, as the PBoC set a higher reference rate, reversing expectations that perhaps authorities were willing to see the currency drift a little lower. NAB’s Rodrigo Catrl talks through the moves, and the warning from one senior Japanese official that speculation driving down the Yen will not be tolerated. Meanwhile bond yields in the US and Europe push higher, ahead of inflation data later in the week. Data is light today, but we get consumer confidence data for Australia, Germany and the US (conference board). But as Rodrigo points out, how people feel and what they do are often very different things. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E63 · Sun, March 24, 2024
Easing hopes and a falling Yuan
Monday 25th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The CNY fell sharply on Friday after Chinese authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the consequences and repercussions of an approach that might be less contained. Meanwhile markets are responding to the commentary form Central banks last week. How would you sum it up in one word, asks Phil? Later? No, quite the reverse says Taylor. Particularly in the UK. Although ‘later’ still applies to the RBA and perhaps, to the FOMC. It’s a quiet, short week, but a lot off the key data emanates from Australia, including CPI on Wednesday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E62 · Fri, March 22, 2024
Weekend Edition: The Great Education Bounce Back
Friday 22nd March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Foreign students are back and more than ever. Julie Hare, education editor at the AFR, says its more than just a rebound and catch-up from COVID. Something has shifted. So, what does that mean for the economy? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are economic consequences – good and bad. It has alleviated some of the tightness in the labour market, but its also added to inflation pressures. Phil asks, without it, how well would the economy be faring? Looking ahead the picture is complicated. On this week’s podcast we look at how international demand is not matched by the domestic appetite for higher education, despite the government’s aims to increase the numbers and diversity of students. Plus, how are educators coping with new regulations aimed at clamping down on those cheating the system to gain access to work in Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E61 · Thu, March 21, 2024
Bad Apple, Swiss Surprise, English Hawks fly
Friday 22nd March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets ushed higher, presumably on expectations of looming rate cuts by various central banks. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says a move in August is still expected by the Bank of England, as the two hawks who voted for a rise last time fell in line in the latest meeting. In fact, one central bank did cut rates overnight. But what about the impacts of local data yesterday. Was the Australia unemployment number too low for the RBA, and the NZ GDP read too soft for the RBNZ? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E60 · Wed, March 20, 2024
Fed feels its way slowly
Thursday 21st March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation has eased, but not enough yet says Jerome Powell, as the Fed keeps rates on hold, and Fed members point to a slightly higher long-term nominal rate. NAB’s Taylor Nugent dissects the announcement and the press conference, before looking ahead to the Bank of England. UK inflation yesterday was a little weaker than expected. But not enough to change the dial at the BoE. Services inflation remains persistently high. Also today, GDP for New Zealand and Australia’s employment numbers. So, what would the RBA like to see today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E59 · Tue, March 19, 2024
In the thick of it
Wednesday 20th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With the RBA and bank of Japan out of the way, markets are readying themselves for the FOMC tomorrow, with yields drifting a little lower today in anticipation. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA has removed its tightening bias – now, nothing is ruled out or in. The next move is expected to be down, but the question that remains is when? The bank of Japan lifted themselves out of negative interest rates, as expected, but Ken says they did a good job of dampening any expectations of a rigorous tightening cycle. Tomorrow, the FOMC meets, with the focus on the dots plot – how many and what will be the endpoint? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E58 · Mon, March 18, 2024
Aiming for zero
Tuesday 19th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Two central banks meet today, but the outcomes seem predictable. The end of negative rates by the Bank of Japan seems to have been well signalled, and the RBA continues its restrictive policy settings. NAB’s Skye Masters says we continue to look to November as the first possible rate cut in Australia. Meanwhile bond yields in the UW continue to push higher, ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week. Phil asks if 2-year yields could push as high as 5%. Elsewhere, positive data from China yesterday, the ZEW survey for Europe today and Canada’s inflation print. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E57 · Sun, March 17, 2024
One move out of six this week?
Monday 18th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This week we hear the interest rate decisions from the RBA, the Fed, the BOE, the Bank of Japan, Norge’s Bank and the Swiss National Bank. Will any of them move rates? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at what to expect and when, including the growing possibility that we’ll see a lift in rates and an end to yield curve control by the BoJ. Generally, though, the tone seems to be higher for longer as many indicators are showing inflation is taking a while to get under control. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E56 · Fri, March 15, 2024
Weekend Edition: Aussie agriculture, scaling up to thrive
Friday 18th March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . A pandemic, water shortages, labour supply issues, the cost of finance, China’s slow recovery, climate change. It seems like the agricultural sector faces massive headwinds, but NAB’s Lea Jurkovic says there’s still an immense amount of optimism within the sector, with plenty of upside potential in Australia’s export markets. That optimism is shared by Lachlan Marshall, who runs the Yurunga Farms Partnership, a diary and cattle operation near Deniliquin. He joins Phil and Lea to talk about how he is using mechanisation and data to drive efficiencies, that enhance the productivity and long-term viability of his farm. “I’m scaling up to thrive rather than survive, he says on this week’s Weekend Edition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E55 · Thu, March 14, 2024
The lengthening last mile
Friday 15th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Reality is starting to bite. Pesky inflation is taking longer to come down, even as other data is showing slower economic growth. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its only one day, but stronger producer prices and slower retail growth is your classic stagflation data print. It’s clearly too early to make that call, but markets are worried, with equities taking a hit and expectations falling further for a rate cut in June. Bond yields have oved markedly higher, although oil prices are rising as the IEA forecasts stronger demand this year, which hardly fits the stagflation argument. But clearly, whatever the outcome, it’s taking longer to get there! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E54 · Wed, March 13, 2024
Hungry for US bonds, wage wins in Japan
Wednesday 13th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Another big auction overnight showed strong appetite from investors for long-dated US bonds. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the resilience in US data refuses to give up and the timeline for when the Fed will cut rates continues to get pushed back. Markets are not even fully pricing a cut in June now and there’s the question as to whether the Fed dot plot next week will drop to two cuts this year. Meanwhile, expectations are rising for a rate rise by the BoJ next week, as wage negotiations in Japan show many workers are seeing pay rises in excess of 5 percent. Gavin talks through the likely impacts on currency markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E53 · Tue, March 12, 2024
US inflation hotter than expected
Wednesday 13th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation came in hotter than expected ion data out overnight, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was only marginally above expectations, rounding just makes it seem worth. It’s not changing expectations for a June cut, he says. The NAB Business Survey provided more signs of why the RBA isn’t in any rush to cut rates, with a reacceleration in business conditions. We also discuss what was said by the RBA’s Sarah Hunter yesterday, the weakness in UK jobs and a Bloomberg story that has the BoJ on the cusp of lifting rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E52 · Mon, March 11, 2024
Last minute nerves ahead of US inflation
Tuesday 12th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI is out today. A core monthly read of 0.3 percent is expected. JBWere’s Sally Auld says that’s too high to meet the Fed’s target so we’ll need to see CPI down to 0.2 percent over successive months before they can be certain they are on track. Japan’s GDP growth was lower than expected, although the country is now officially out of recession, but only by the tiniest margin. Could the BoJ really be planning rate hikes in such an environment? Iron ore prices took a hit overnight, whilst gold and Bitcoin are at or near all time highs. There’s clearly a lot of uncertainty out there. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E51 · Sun, March 10, 2024
The US jobs numbers that surprised, then didn’t
Monday 11th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US payrolls data was initially a surprise on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was an initial algo-driven market response, before the human s stepped in on realising that substantial downward revisions in the previous two months meant jobs data was weaker than anticipated. Hence, expectations for a June cut haven’t really shifted. Canada’s employment data, which was higher, passed by with little fanfare. China’s inflation numbers were a surprise over the weekend, coming in at the highest month on month level in a year. Japan’s GDP read is expected to be revised higher today, but the biggest influence on the BoJ strategy will come later this week with the early results of spring wage negotiations. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E50 · Fri, March 08, 2024
Weekend Edition: Equality Japanese Style
Friday 18th March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . You would be right in assuming that equality for women is less prevalent in Japan than it is in Australia. There are 200 listed companies on the Nikkei who don’t have a single female board member. But things are changing. Melanie Brock is an Australian who has lived in Tokyo for 25 years, helping businesses invest and partner in Japan. She serves on four boards, having just been appointed to Asahi Group Holdings. Today she talks through the challenges women face, but also why the economy depends on the career advancement of women. And there’s at least one lesson Australian businesses can learn from Japan about how to advance diversity in the workforce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S1 E49 · Thu, March 07, 2024
All eyes back on June with hopes of no payrolls surprise
Friday 8tth March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB’s Gavin Friend says you only need to look at the falls we’ve been experiencing in yields lately to recognise that there’s a renewed acceptance that rates will be cut, probably by the middle of the year, in the US and Europe. At the ECB meeting Christine Lagarde talked about good progress being made on bringing down inflation, as they released a downgraded inflation forecast. In front of the sente Banking Committee in the US Jerome Powell talked about not being far from having the confidence to cut rates. That’s why all eyes are back on June. Of course, a surprise result in non-farm payrolls tonight could easily change all that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E48 · Wed, March 06, 2024
Aussie bounces, ECB likely to stick
Thursday 7tth March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar has led the major sin currency gains today. NAB’s Skye Masters says it follows a fall n the US dollar, with the DXY at its lowest level in over a month. The rise in the Aussie happened despite a lacklustre GDP report for Australia, although the results won’t change the dial on RBA timings. The BoC kept rates on hold and gave no timing on when cuts will happen. The message everywhere – including in Powell’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee – is that more reassurance is need that inflation is heading sustainably lower. That’ll almost certainly be the message delivered at the press conference after the ECB meeting early tomorrow morning (Australia time). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E47 · Tue, March 05, 2024
US caution amidst stock shocks and services slowdown
Wednesday 6tth March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US ISM services index showed a larger than expected slowdown. As NAB’s ray Attrill describes, that’s driven interest in bonds, helped by another fall in US equities, driven by falls in tech stocks. Here’s also been a rise in Bitcoin and gold, both hitting record highs. Interestingly, the services PMIs for Europe were generally a little better than expected. So does any of this change the timeline for anticipated cuts by the Fed and ECB? Today, Australia’s Q4 GDP is the big number to watch, along with the US job openings numbers. And get the popcorn ready for the results from Super Tuesday, but I think we know who wins. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E46 · Mon, March 04, 2024
Is Xi Jinping still Mr 5 percent?
Tursday 4th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares have taken a rest for now. Perhaps a $1.8 billion fine on Apple over music streaming has reminded big tech investor that regulators have power. Today, NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact of yesterday’s GDP partials for Australia, much of it driven by mining, with lower inventories and higher corporate profits. The Peoples Congress is underway in China today, with reports suggesting Xi Jinping will confirm that the growth target for 2024 remains at 5 percent. The US releases its PMI Services number today, but the market is really hanging out for Friday’s non-farm payrolls. It’s Super Tuesday in the US today, but we already know who is going to win, for each side of politics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E45 · Sun, March 03, 2024
Will weaker US data speed-up cuts?
Monday 4th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US Manufacturing ISM was weaker than expected don Friday, with new orders, production and employment all contracting. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether this accounts for a fall in front end yields on Friday and whether its impacted expectations for the timing of the first Fed rate cut. In Europe the latest CPI numbers show inflation is coming down more slowly than expected, ahead of the ECB meeting this week. Could this push back the timing for cuts? It’s a quiet start to a busy week – a week that includes US non-farm payrolls and Services ISM, Australia’s GDP and a House testimony for Jerome Powell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E44 · Fri, March 01, 2024
Weekend Edition: Stage 3 tax cuts, not exactly tax reform
Friday 1st March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week Kate Griffiths from the Grattan Institute warns that the recent budget surplus is hiding the fact that the long-term balance between Australia’s tax intake and the expectations for government spending don’t stack up. As the population ages and the ratio of those in work reduces, the tax base will narrow whilst demand for aged services will expand. Kate argues the case for a roader tax system, less reliant on income tax as the main source of government revenue. Phil asks hat tax reform should set out to address. Is it just about increasing revenue, or is wealth redistribution just as important? And what about the tax efficiency. How many tax loopholes need to disappear. Then there’s taxes with unintended detrimental consequences. There’s a lot to consider. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E43 · Thu, February 29, 2024
‘As expected’ brings a sigh of relief
Friday 1st March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were relieved that the US PCE deflators came in in-line with expectations. But, as JBWere’s Sally Auld points out, the six-month annualised rate is ticking up a little, hence the desire by th Fed to see more data before committing to rate cuts. Ion a busy episode today we look at European inflation, Australian retail sales, house prices, Canada’s GDP and words from one BoJ governor suggesting the time is right to lift rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E42 · Wed, February 28, 2024
RBNZ is done with hikes, Aussie retail will bounce back today
Thursday 29th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded sharply to the RBNZ hold decision yesterday, even though it was largely expected. The tone from the press conference that followed left most assuming there would be no more hikes, even if it’ll take a while for rates to come down. NaAB's Ken Crompton talks through how the markets reacted. He also suggests an above-consensus bounce back in Australian retail numbers today. US core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – is also expected to lift a little, whilst US GDP was revised down ever so slightly. And happy leap day! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E41 · Tue, February 27, 2024
All quiet at the casino, all eyes over the ditch
Wednesday 28th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Japan’s inflation is down, but not quite as much as expected. That’s raised expectation from some that the BoJ will use this as a reason to lift rates. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether they need to. Japanese exports seem to be benefiting from a lower Yen right now. Meanwhile US equities have plateaued. Warren Buffet described it as a casino, suggesting investors focused on stocks that it would be hard to imagine doing without. Like coca cola. Vested interest perhaps? Today the focus is on what the RBNZ does. NAB and BNZ are not expecting a rate rise, but the language at the press conference should be interesting. Inflation is proving troublesome. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E40 · Mon, February 26, 2024
The day before tomorrow
Tuesday 27th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Tomorrow is looking a lot more interesting than today, with Australian CPI and the RBNZ. Overnight though, we had more talk from the ECB, including a curious comment from the Bank of Greece Governor, seemingly reinforcing the suggestion that June is the month for cutting. Today we see CPI numbers for Japan, but it’s unlikely to influence the timing of any moves by the BoJ, should they ever move. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through all of that, plus the outcome of bond auctions in the US overnight, with yields pushing a little higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E39 · Sun, February 25, 2024
It won’t happen overnight, but it will happen
Friday 23rd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Central bankers are being very elusive when it comes to the timeframe for cutting rates. The Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that he believes rates will come down this year, even though markets are expecting a move in June. The ECB’s Christine Lagarde says she wants more persistent evidence that inflationary pressures have dissipated, even though the German economy shank by 0.2 percent last year. And there’s the outside chance that he RBNZ will lift rates this week, although that seems unlikely. Meanwhile Australian CPI and retail sales this week will be waited for with anticipation by the RBA. So, when it comes to rate cuts, it won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. Trivia question: who said that? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E38 · Fri, February 23, 2024
Weekend Edition: Getting Ready for Trump
Friday 23rd February 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The US has been enjoying healthy share prices and a market preparing for lower interest rates, with the much-vaunted soft landing. But how much of this good will could disappear if Donald Trump returns to the White House next year? The FT’s Katie Martin says markets haven’t been preparing much just yet because, well, it may not happen. But there’s also the question of how big the gap is between what Trump says he’ll do and what eventuates. Katie suggests corporate America will advise him of the consequences if he were to push ahead with a 55% tariff on all Chinese imports. We can assume he will be far less supportive of green initiatives. We also know he tends to measure economic success by share market performance. The unknown element is his approach to foreign policy. That might mean it'll be time to derisk. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E37 · Thu, February 22, 2024
NVIDIA stirs up AI madness
Friday 23rd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The caution we’ve been seeing in the US share market has dissolved completely since the release of NVIDIA earnings yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the euphoria has even spread as far as Japan. But is too much good news taken by the Fed as another reason to delay rate cuts? You could also question whether the ECB will delay longer than June. The minutes of their last meeting note the risk of cutting too early if greater than the risk of a delay. Today the diary is light, with retail sales for New Zealand the focus. A weak result would surely remove the chance of a hike by the RBNZ next week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E36 · Wed, February 21, 2024
Are the US, UK and Europe all looking at June?
Thursday 22nd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC minutes this morning didn’t provide many surprises, except warning that inflation could pick up and more evidence was needed. All reasons to delay cuts until, possibly June. Meanwhile, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, the ECB has almost committed verbally to a June cut. Now we’re seeing louder voices inside the BoE warning that delaying cuts will have harmful impacts on the economy, which has the potential to also move to a June cut. No such luck with the RBA though. Yesterday’s wage inflation data, even though it came in almost as expected, it’s still too high for the policy makers to feel comfortable. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E35 · Tue, February 20, 2024
Canada first to go lower?
Wednesday 21st February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Canada’s latest inflation rate came in lower than expected overnight, prompting the inevitable speculation about an earlier cut from the Bank of Canada. April perhaps? Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters whether this means they’ll be the first major central bank to move lower, as others seem to be pushing expectations back a little. Although UK gilt yields dropped after the BoE’s Andrw Bailey said to a government hearing that market expectations for a rate cut this year are not unreasonable. Today Australia’s wage rice index is released. NAB expects it to come in line with RBA forecasts, but we’ll see. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E34 · Mon, February 19, 2024
Second decimal point moves for Presidents Day
Tueday 20th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been quieter than quiet the last 24 hours. The US has been off for Presidents Day, and elsewhere only glacial movements in bonds and currencies. Why? Well, as Phil discusses with NAB’s Ken Crompton, its because there’s not much in the way of data releases to move markets along, those that are open. On eof the strongest currencies was the New Zealand dollar, that saw a slightly stronger than expected PSI read yesterday. Ahead we have the RBA minutes and Canada’s CPI to look forward to. Beyond that, we’re clutching at straws a bit! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E33 · Sun, February 18, 2024
Another sign of a bumpy path for inflation
Monday19th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was some dismissing of the US CPI numbers last week as not being the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. But the producer prices on Friday, which do input into the Fed’s preferred Core PCE number, also showed prices ticking higher in January. Evidence of the bumpy path that the Fed’s Michael Barr was talking about on Thursday, perhaps? But NAB’s Taylor Nugent says, as with the CPI numbers, seasonally adjusting January’s numbers is notoriously difficult. In any case, we won’t see further market reaction in the US today because its Presidents Day holiday. So, a quiet start to a week which includes the latest flash PMIs and Australia’s wage price index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E32 · Fri, February 16, 2024
Weekend Edition: Big tech. Which business model wins?
Friday 16th February 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In the consumer space there are only really two ways tech firms make money. They either sell stuff – usually subscriptions – or they offer free content supported by advertising. Advertising is as old as the hills so you might be mistaken for thinking that its days are numbered. But Debra Aho Williamson, an independent tech analyst from Seattle, says online will continue to grow its share of an expanding global advertising market, and AI will help improve the efficacy of the budget of advertisers. But advertising isn’t the only way forward and each of the major tech firms has their own approach. Listen in to the discussion to help gather your own thoughts on who is in the strongest position right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E31 · Thu, February 15, 2024
Surprising data does little to move the dial for central banks
Thursday 15th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been some surprises in the last 24 hours but it seems none of it will change the dial for central banks. Australia’s unemployment ticked above 4% yesterday, but JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why you have to be cautious about January numbers and why it doesn’t really add to the pressure for the RBA to cut sooner. The latest GDP numbers in the UK, which showed the country has been in recession for the last two quarters, but the BoE was quick to respond on the need to see inflation falling more consistently before they act. Japan also moved into a recession which surely challenges the notion that the BoJ will lift rates. And US retail sales showed the biggest fall in almost a year. So, lots of data, but nothing to change central bank thinking. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E30 · Wed, February 14, 2024
Back to expecting faster cuts (RBA/RBNZ excepted)?
Thursday 15th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Central banks seem to be sounding a little more dovish, with the exception of the RBA and RBNZ of course. NAB’s Ray Attrill says market expectations are driving away from the higher-than-expected US CPI read, like a speeding car. Hence, bond yields have bounced back today. They rose even further in the UK where inflation came in lower than expected. With GDP numbers later likely to show an economy in recession, can the BoE really hold out much longer? It’s a movable feast, and in the midst of that movement NAB has released the latest FX forecasts, which effectively pushes the growth in the Aussie dollar back a quarter, against a stronger US dollar. But there are a few significant caveats, discussed on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E29 · Tue, February 13, 2024
Overreacting to US CPI?
Wednesday 14th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI numbers showed that inflation isn’t coming down as fast as expected. The market reaction was swift as markets repriced their expectations for the timing of rate cuts. Equites fell sharply, bond yields rose as the US dollar gained ground.. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are good reasons not to take too much signal from the January data alone. Perhaps the exercise will be repeated with UK inflation numbers later today although there a small rise is already expected. Today New Zealand’s price indices will give an early indication of inflation, as the market pares back rate hike expectations after the surprising call by (another) major bank this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E28 · Mon, February 12, 2024
Waiting for the night
Tuesday 13th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Maybe not as exciting as the Super Bowl, but the CPI numbers out in the US early tomorrow morning (Australia time) could have a more significant impact on the US economy and the speed of cuts from the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the headline rate is expected to start with a 2, instead of a 3, but will it fall faster than expected putting pressure on the Fed to move more quickly. Ahead of all that, we get the NAB Business Survey, the ZEW survey results for Germany and the Eurozone, and employment numbers for the UK. At last, the data calendar is hotting up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E27 · Sun, February 11, 2024
The CPI anticlimax, NZ’s rate worries and new highs for US shares
Monday 12th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Talk about an anti-climax! Markets were on tenterhooks ahead of the revision to US CPI on Friday but, it turns out, there was nothing to see. NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out that the revision was one basis point higher for the three-month average. Now markets can focus on the next CPI print, which is out this week. Friday’s excitement in our region came from one bank’s call for the RBNZ to raise rates in February and April. Michelle Bullock didn’t rule out a rate rise for the RBA when she fronted up to parliament on Friday, but it seems unlikely. It’s a quiet start to the week, with China on holiday for the New Year, but Tapas takes us through some of the data highlights for later in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E26 · Fri, February 09, 2024
Weekend Edition: Cashing in on Australia’s tourism revival
Friday 9th February 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australian tourism was enjoying record highs for visitor numbers before the pandemic. Then we closed the borders. Visitor arrivals are picking up again, but are still not back to 2019 levels. But Samantha Palmer, general manager of Austrade’s visitor economy and client programs division, says we’ll break that record for visitor numbers in 2025 and exceed the spend record this year. That makes tourism infrastructure a solid investment promotion. But what sort of product is required and how can you finance all that upfront investment when a brand-new offering could take a while to provide cash returns? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E25 · Thu, February 08, 2024
Not ready to toggle
Friday 9th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed and several other central banks are united in their message that there’s no rush to cut rates. Thomas Barkin was the latest to deliver the message from the FOMC, suggesting they won’t ‘toggle’ rates until they’ve had a few more months of data. Meanwhile, NAB’s Skye masters says as we await more data bonds are drifting, looking for direction. There will be some trepidation about the possibility of a revision to US CPI numbers later and there are more solid numbers to help support whatever side of the timing of the toggle you sit on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E24 · Wed, February 07, 2024
Equities soaring higher, central bankers talk longer
Thursday 8th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Once again central bankers have been out pushing the message that rates will not be coming down quickly. What’s more, the neutral rate is likely to be higher than before. There was a lacklustre response from bond markets, which managed to absorb $2 billon worth of new issuance. The market moves have been in equities, with the S&P close to, but not quite hitting - 5,000. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this is misplaced optimism. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E23 · Tue, February 06, 2024
No hurry for RBA cut, maybe even a hike?
Wednesday 7th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a busy day for Australia yesterday, with the RBA announcement, the statement of monetary policy, and the press conference. For all of that there wasn’t any wild fluctuations in markets, despite the hawkish tilt and the spectre of a rate rise given as one possible course of action if services inflation remains too resilient. But, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, most of the market action was in US bond markets, where yields fell significantly overnight. It’s the lack of tier one data, says \gavin, driving speculation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E22 · Mon, February 05, 2024
New look RBA song and dance act today
Tuesday 6th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Stronger than expected ISM services data yesterday has dampened further the likelihood of a March rate cut. Meanwhile, China is taking more steps to stem the outflow from equity markets. Australia, meanwhile, readies itself for the first RBA announcement of 2024. But its not just an announcement, it’s the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy and a press conference. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks us through this new look RBA performance and why it could prove to be choppier for bond and currency markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E21 · Sun, February 04, 2024
Will US inflation bounce back?
Monday 5th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US payrolls numbers on Friday showed a surprisingly large upswing, mirroring the ADP numbers earlier in the week. The data also showed a higher-than-expected increase in wages. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this puts paid to any hopes of a March rate cut, with the first fully priced cut expected in June. He adds there’s a chance that inflation data could be revised up a little later this week. The BoE’s Huw Pill meanwhile has been promoting the need to wait longer before cutting, adding to the underperformance of Gilts on Friday. It’s a quiet start to the week, but the main interest locally is obviously the RBA tomorrow, with the rates announcement coinciding with the publication of the Statement of Monetary Policy, followed by a press conference by Michele Bullock. A lot to take in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E20 · Fri, February 02, 2024
Weekend Edition: Emerging trends in Australia’s post-COVID property market
Friday 2nd February Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Sydney and Melbourne property prices are down from their peaks, whilst Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth reached all time highs last month. But for how long? Will Sydney and Melbourne bounce back? Phil talks to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Residential Research about recent trends in the property market which, despite everything, continues to enjoy rising prices, but for how long? What impact is migration having on demand for dwellings in Sydney and Melbourne. What’s driving the widening gap between house prices and apartments? And what are the trends Eliza thinks we’ll see this year that might surprise you. Even if you are not a property investor, or considering a housing purchase, this is compulsory listening for anyone gathering ammunition for Australia’ favourite dinner party conversation – house prices! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E19 · Thu, February 01, 2024
BoE last cab off the rank
Friday 2nd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It wasn’t a unanimous decision by the Bank of England overnight. Some of the board wanted to lift rates, the majority wanted to hold, but there was one who still wanted to push them higher. All in all a March cut is now extremely unlikely according to NAB’s Gavin Friend, who says those pricing in 100bp of cuts this year have probably got it wrong. We also look at the fed’s decision, one day on. Shares are higher and bond yields lower, so it seems the prospect of delays in cuts hasn’t phased the markets too much. The latest ISM report painted a slightly more optimistic picture for US manufacturing, but prices remain a concern. Wages will be watched keenly, of course, in the non-farm payrolls out on Friday in the US. Jerome Powell said this week he was looking for more “good data” – maybe this will be one of those reports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E18 · Wed, January 31, 2024
FOMC holds, no hurry to move down
Thursday 1st February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB At the FOMC today a unanimous decision was made to keep rates on hold, but there was suggestion that they’d be cutting rates anytime soon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says this will dent the optimism of those hoping for a lower rate in March. Australia’s inflation numbers yesterday are also unlikely to change the stance of the RBA next month. The Bank of England meets later today – three of the nine board members voted for a hike last time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E17 · Tue, January 30, 2024
The Fed’s quandary: A soft landing but jobs plentiful
Wednesday 31st January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are less than 24 hours away from the next FOMC meeting. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says an indication that the Fed was dropping its tightening bias would help validate the higher expectations for cuts in market pricing. But will it happen? Even though inflation is falling, consumer confidence is also on the rise and there are more than 9 million jobs looking for employees. Also today we discuss Australia’s retail numbers yesterday, what we can expect in today’s CPI and the latest forecasts from the IMF, which paints a slightly rosier picture in their latest World Economic Outlook. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E16 · Mon, January 29, 2024
Limbering up for cuts. Who goes first?
Tuesday 30th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB For all the delaying tactics of central bank speakers, markets are still pricing cuts earlier for the fed and the ECB. So who goes first? NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s a two-horse race, although markets are pricing in early cuts in Europe. That could all change, of course, depending on what’s said by the FOMC tomorrow. Europe’s destiny will be somewhat shaped by it’s GDP numbers today, which are expected top show that the Euro area is in recession. There’s also discussion about Australia’s retail numbers out today, which are expected to show a fall in December in response to the bounce in sales (because of sales) in November. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E15 · Sun, January 28, 2024
You want busy?
Monday 29th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You want busy, we’ll give you busy.The FOMC and the Bank of England meet this week and five of the magnificent 7 report earnings. We’ll also see the latest Australian CPI read and payrolls data from the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to catch up on data from the tail end of last week, which saw US core-PCE dip below 3%, whilst European data continues to show more of a downturn, with signs that the ECB may be changing its tune on waiting till June to cut rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E14 · Thu, January 25, 2024
Weekend Edition: Home or away – where to head with shares in 2024?
Thursday 25th January 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . By and large investors will have seen slim returns from Australian equities in 2023, but they would have made far more from US shares and, in particular, the magnificent seven. So, does the same apply for this year? Phil asks Gemma Dale, Director of SMSF and Investor Behaviour at nabtrade, who says 2023 wasn’t too bad when you factor in dividends. But 2024 could be better. Rates are coming down at some point, bond yields are falling and, you’d hope, the consumer will have more cash to spend. All of that, you’d assume, points to a rosier picture for equity investors, but which sectors will do the best? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E13 · Wed, January 24, 2024
China Tries Again
Thursday 25th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Theres a more risk positive mood this morning NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its being driven by moves in China to drive an economic recovery, including a half percent cut in the reserve requirement ratio for lenders. There’s been more attention ,though, to talk of a (long awaited) fiscal stimulus. Japan’s currency moved higher as investors mulled over the commentary form the bank of Japan, suggested a move into positive rates was looking more likely. Whilst the Bank of Canada highlighted that the days of rate rises are over for now, without giving any timeline for cuts. In PMIs Europe showed further weakness against US strength. Another reason for the ECB to cut rates sooner rather than later, but few expect that to happen at tomorrow’s meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E12 · Tue, January 23, 2024
Sweet Relief for China’s Rocky Road?
Wednesday 24th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar gained a bit of ground briefly yesterday on reports of China launching a rescue package to placate their retail investors, with shares now the furthest they’ve ever been behind the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a question mark as to whether they are addressing the symptoms rather than the root cause. The European economy has had more bad news, with loan data showing companies still are not borrowing, whilst consumer confidence is falling. Is the ECB wrong to consider delaying cuts till June? Today’s PMIs will shed some light on what has been a widening chasm between US and European economic health. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E11 · Mon, January 22, 2024
Light on news, high on hope
Tuesday 23rd Janaury 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities hit new highs again overnight, reflecting the optimism for an economy that’ s beating inflation and escaping recession. Even the continuance of weak data and pessimism for the Chinese economy is failing t impact US ebullience. NAB Skye Masters says bond markets were more contained, reflecting a day light on news or data prints. There’s not expected to be a policy change fr the Bank of Japan today, but there is a press conference and we get to see revised quarterly forecasts which could help determine when or if there will be future policy changes. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E10 · Sun, January 21, 2024
Share Crazy
Mondaay 22nd January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&P hit its first high since January 2022 on Friday, driven largely by the major tech stocks. Phil asks whether there’s just too much exuberance? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s an important week for tech earnings this week, including Netflix, Tesla and IBM. US positivity was also reflected in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which came in much higher than expectations. The UK and Europe are on a very different trajectory, with a significant fall in retail sales in December possibly leading the economy into a recession. This week Athony Albanese is expected to announce further stimulus measures to ease the cost-of-living crisis which could delay the speed of rate cuts by the RBA. The detail is expected to be ironed out before his National Press Club address on Thursday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E9 · Fri, January 19, 2024
Weekend Edition: Will ETFs give crypto an air of respectability?
Friday 19th January 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Our guest on the Weekend Edition this week says Bitcoin started as an anarchic response to the rapidly rising quantity of Fiat currencies. UK economist and writer Frances Coppola still believes the value of Bitcoin is tied to the policies of central banks, particularly when it comes to cycles of QE and QT. But does it really? Many argued it was a hedge against inflation, but that never came to pass. So what changes with Bitcoin now the USD regulator has cleared the way for ETF’s to offer the chance for regular investors to easily buy or sell out of Bitcoin linked securities? Is it now a more respectable investment choice? Will it lose its volatility? And, if it does, what’s the point of it? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E8 · Thu, January 18, 2024
US jobless claims fall, so did Aussie jobs
Friday 19th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yields continue to push higher as the expectation for delayed cuts mounts. The weekly jobless claims will help the Fed’s case here, with a surprise fall showing how tight the labour market still is. But these are volatile numbers, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, particularly over the holiday period. The same applies to the surprise drop in Australian employment numbers yesterday, although the trend is still showing a rise and there’s nothing to change the RBA’s path for now. Plus, peace hopes for the Middle east and a preview of our first Weekend edition of 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E7 · Wed, January 17, 2024
Pricing for procrastination
Thursday 18th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are pricing more and more for delays in rate cuts. NAB’S Ken Crompton says even with pricing for cuts of 13bp in February that still shows some “irrational exuberance”. The expectations for delays in rate cuts follow Christopher Wallers comments earlier in the week that, with the economy seemingly in good health, why the rush? That view was supported by a range of positive data releases, including retail sales growth continuing into December. In the uK markets were a little surprised by a rebound in UK inflation, delaying chances of cuts by the BoE. In Australia NAB has revised its expectation for a rate rise by the RBA, but there’s a chance that it will stick with its current rate to the tail end of the year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E6 · Tue, January 16, 2024
Waller asks ‘what’s the rush?’
Wednesday 17th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields have ushed higher in the US after the Fed’s Christopher Waller made a speech on the economic outlook at The Brookings Institute, called ‘Almost as Good as it Gets, but will it last?’. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he appeared less dovish than anticipated, hence expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back. Now the question is, will any central banks be cutting in the first half of this year? Today we look at the latest European data, the UK’s muddy employment numbers, as well as looking ahead to a busy 24 hours, with a swathe of China data, UK inflation and US retail number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E5 · Mon, January 15, 2024
European rates higher for longer, on the edge of a potential recession?
Tuesday 16th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB German GDP fell 0.3% last year, even if they did manage to narrowly avoid a technical recession. Europe’s industrial production also fell in the latest data. Yet ECB members continue to talk down expectations for rate cuts at least until the middle of the year. Phil asks JBWere's Sally Auld about the wisdom of keeping rates higher in an economy that is slowing, and does that explain why markets are out of kilter with the central banks rhetoric?. In the US there will be a air bit of focus on what the Feed’s Christopher Waller has to say on rate cuts. There’s also discussion about why the PBoC didn’t cut their medium-term lending facility. Data wise we see Australia’ s consumer confidence today, along with UK wage data, Canada’s CPI and NZ’s quarterly survey of business opinion. Plus the results of the Iowa Caucus. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E4 · Sun, January 14, 2024
How far ahead is US on the race to kill inflation?
Monday 15th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were big falls in 2 year Treasury yields on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this can be attributed to softer than expected producer prices in the US, which feeds through to the PCE deflator number that the Fed uses as its inflation measure. So what has this done to rate cut expectations? Ray says we’re still not back to where we were in the lead up to Christmas. Inflation is coming down much more slowly in Europe. Will it be delayed further by the crisis in the Red Sea? China published weaker loans data at the end of the week, and the PBoC is expected to lower the medium-term loan rate today. We’ll also see whether there’s any response from China to the Taiwan election result whilst the US holds the first Republican Caucus, in Iowa, where Trump is well ahead in the polls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E3 · Thu, January 11, 2024
US CPI not so soft, NAB’s new Q4 CPI forecast
Friday 12th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation was a little bit of a surprise. Whilst the headline rate was expected to rise a little, it came in higher than forecast, whilst the core rate didn’t fall as much as had been hoped for. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the Fed’s super core measure is the part of the inflation picture that refuses to come down, all of which could impact the speed at which the Fed will bring rates down. Meanwhile NAB has revised the forecast for Q4 CPI for Australia on the back of this week’s November data. It provides a CPI rate lower than the RBA’s forecast, so does that mean we can expect rates in Australia come down faster? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E2 · Wed, January 10, 2024
Inflation softer than expected, but hold your horses on rate cut hopes
Thursday 11th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian inflation fell faster than expected in November. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent what this means for the rate path from the RBA. He says the monthly data is a relatively new indicator and is still volatile, so we should be cautious in interpreting the numbers and certainly there wasn’t anything to make the RBA too comfortable. We can expect a more definitive market response to US CPI later on. If the number falls below consensus and highlights potential for a faster cutting cycle from the Fed expect that to drive the US dollar lower. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S8 E1 · Tue, January 09, 2024
Treading cautiously into a new year
Wednesday 10th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have started the year rather cautiously. Bond yields have held up and equity markets are clearly nervous, suggesting many investors are questioning the speed of the path to rate cuts, particularly in the US. Could Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls read last Friday add to the case for delays by the Fed? NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests the markets might be too cautious. We also look at yesterday’s retail numbers for Australia and expectations for the November inflation read out this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E263 · Fri, December 22, 2023
Weekend Edition: A year big on surprises. Will there be more in 2024?
Friday 22nd December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In our final edition of The Morning Call for the year JBWeir’s Sally Auld joins Phil to look back about the surprises of 2023, and to give some of her predictions for 2024. Few expected interest rates to rise as high as they did, but even so, there was a lot of recession talk. Yet, somehow, we avoided it, with much greater expectations for a soft landing. So, is that the story for 2024? Perhaps, but Sally springs five potential wildcards on us that we should have in the back of our minds. 2024 is certainly not going to be a year low on risk. This is our last Morning Call of the year. Thank you for joining us each weekday, and we hope you’ve enjoyed the addition of the Weekend Edition. We’ll be back on Wednesday 10th January ready to interpret whatever the new year throws at us. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E262 · Thu, December 21, 2023
Has the US already met its inflation target?
Friday 22nd December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Well, you could argue that if the US wants to get inflation down to 2% that its already there. Why? NAB’s Ray Attrill points out that the latest quarterly PCE read – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – has been revised down to an annual figure that falls within their target range. The monthly number for November, out tonight, could well reinforce this argument and add more weight for rate cuts early in 2024. In other news, Joe Biden has been discussing increased tariffs on the import of EVs from China. Australia could feel the repercussions of that and could be one factor stopping the Aussie dollar reaching 70 US cents anytime soon. Today, Japan’s CPI and the latest revision to UK GDP. Just like the US numbers, could they also be a downward surprise and reopen recession speculation? This is our last daily edition until January 10th, but this afternoon JBWeir’s Sally Auld gives her thoughts on where we’ve been this year and the prospects for 2024. To be listened to at your leisure over the Christmas break. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E261 · Wed, December 20, 2023
UK inflation falls faster than expected. Hard for the BoE to hike now.
Thursday 21st December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB UK inflation fell much faster than expected and more than the Bank of England predicted. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says its clear that there will be no more rate hikes in the UK, reflected in markets today with a sharp rise in equities and a significant drop in bond yields. There was another Christmas gift in the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence read which showed heightened optimism for the new year. The only negative sign was, perhaps, a rise in the jobs plentiful index which could arguably delay the fall in wage growth. Meanwhile, the EU is clearly ready to move on from worrying about inflation to focusing on government debt, with finance ministers today agreeing that all member states should return to a debt to GDP ratio of 60%. Good luck with that! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E260 · Tue, December 19, 2023
RBA going for the mid-point, BoJ going nowhere, Canada’s inflation bounces back
Wednesday 20th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA minutes yesterday were more hawkish than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the central bank is aiming for the mid-point of their 2 – 3 percent target range, rather than the top, raising the prospect of rates staying higher, or a more concerted effort to bring inflation down faster. This adds to the speculation that interest rates will be lifted in February, although a lot will depend, of course, on Q4 CPI, out late in January. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan did and said little and Canada’s core inflation bounced back up a little. A reminder to all that it isn’t beaten yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E259 · Mon, December 18, 2023
RBA minutes and BoJ; could be a whole lot of nothing, but there again ...
Tuesday 19th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yield rose higher overnight, along with equities, as the prospect of a slower path of rates cuts by the Fed sinks in. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a settling down after the rally in bonds we’ve seen in the last month or so, helped by more Fed speakers overnight talking down the prospect of early rate cuts next year. In other news, the German IFO reader can be added to the list of releases showing a European slowdown. The focus today will be on the RBA minutes. Skye isn’t sure there will be much to gain beyond the statement earlier in the month, but never say never. The same applies to the Bank of Japan meeting today – they are not expected to lift rates, or give an indication of when they will, but they have provided a pre-Christmas surprise before. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E258 · Sun, December 17, 2023
Is the Fed backtracking on rates cuts?
Monday 18th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that it was too soon to be looking at rate cuts, despite the FOMC dots plot showing members expecting several cuts next year. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland about Williams’ motivation and the market response. Meanwhile, as data from China remains soft the PBoC is pumping 800 billion Yuan into the economy. Tapas explains the approach and whether it will work. European PMI data came in softer than expected, whilst the UK seems a little more resilient in the services sector. But with a central bank governor reluctant to move too quickly, is stronger data good or bad for Britain? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E257 · Fri, December 15, 2023
Weekend Edition: Generative AI is here, ready or not.
Friday 15th December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . When it comes to the use and deployment of AI a Deloitte report reckons many Australian businesses are slow to catch on to the risks and opportunities it presents. This week Phil Dobbie talks to Rhiannon Yetsenga, a manager in the Economic Analysis and Policy team at Deloitte Access Economics, about a recent survey of 2,500 Australian employees and students, which highlights how Generative AI in particular is transforming the workplace. Rhiannon says, unlike many business transformations, this one is being employee led. Companies need to be aware that it is happening, learn how to manage risk and take advantage of the opportunities it presents, as a first-step to more complex AI projects. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E256 · Thu, December 14, 2023
BoE and ECB staying on top of the mountain
Friday 15th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst the FOMC signalled the likelihood of several rate cuts next year, NAB’s Gavin Friend says the Bank of England and ECB are giving nothing away, with both saying there is more to e done to bring inflation under control. One European bank even managed to slip in a rate rise ahead of Christmas – the Norges Bank pushed rates up to 4.5%, concerned about a rebound in inflation. Markets continue to respond to the dovish FOMC meeting yesterday, even with jobless claims and retail numbers both showing surprising resilience in the US economy. There’s lots more economic data today, including the December flash PMIs for Europe, the UK and US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E255 · Wed, December 13, 2023
Aussie wins against drop in the US dollar as Fed gets ready to cut
Thursday 14th Decenber 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A Fed that is happy to hold, and is expecting to cut three times next year. That’s the takeout from the FOMC meeting this morning. Markets have responded swiftly, with sharp moves down in the US dollar and bond yields, with the Aussie dollar making the biggest gains this morning. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says yields were already falling on the back of slower rises in producer prices, adding to the evidence that inflation is easing in the US. The Bank of England meets later today, along with the ECB. Both are expected to stay put, with the UK having much lower than expected GDP growth in October. Australia’s employment numbers are released today, after yesterday’s Seek job ads show more labour market easing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E254 · Tue, December 12, 2023
US inflation data doesn’t change the game
Wednesday 13th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB In numbers out overnight the headline US CPI rate fell a little, but no more than expected, whilst core inflation remained stuck at 4%. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it again showed the dichotomy between core goods, which fell 0.3% in the month, and services which rose 0.5% in the month. It’s not expected to change the Fed’s decision tomorrow, or the outlook for cuts in the first half of 2024, but that could change with the dots plot from the FOMC. Elsewhere, the latest ZEW survey from Europe showed a surprise lift, whilst oil continues to slide lower. In short, not a huge reaction to an unsurprising CPI, and all now rests on what’s said and forecast tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E253 · Mon, December 11, 2023
Aussie Floats On, Yen Falls Back
Tuesday 12th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Yen is the biggest currency move overnight, losing some of the recent gains. NAB’s Ray Attril says it comes from a Bloomberg story overnight which doused expectations that there will be a ‘surprise’ policy change next week. Otherwise, markets are largely treading water ahead of the US CPI number later today, followed quickly by the Fed later in the week, along with four other central banks. Also on today’s podcast we look at four decades of a free floating Aussie dollar. It’s 40 years ago today that the AUD floated freely for the first time. Ray takes us through some of the highs and lows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E252 · Sun, December 10, 2023
US jobs numbers too hot?
Monday 11th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US non-farm payrolls data came in a lot higher than expected on Friday, with 200k extra jobs added last month. Wages grew a little more than expected. Not what you’d expect for an economy that is supposedly cooling. So, were the numbers too hot? Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this changes assumptions around the timing of rate cuts by the Fed. He says some of the new jobs were one-offs, and the trend is still downwards, but markets have repriced their expectation for cuts in the early part of next year. There’s also discussion on Europe’s new AI laws and China’s worse than anticipation deflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E251 · Fri, December 08, 2023
Weekend Edition: Getting Back with Britain
Friday 8th December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It’s been fifty years since the UK signed an agreement with the European Economic Community. That had a profound impact on Australian exports. We’ve built a far more diverse export base since then, of course, but now, since Brexit, with a new free trade agreement (FTA) in place, there’s a chance to redevelop our trading relationship with the UK. Elisabeth Bowes, Australia’s Deputy High Commissioner to the UK, was deeply involved in negotiating the UK Australia FTA. She said, it made her proud as a Queenslander to see, back in September, the first tariff free shipment of sugar in fifty years to arrive in the UK. On this edition of The Weekend Edition Elisabeth outlines how Australian businesses can benefit from the agreement, whether its exporting goods, procuring UK government business, establishing a foothold within Europe, or recruiting expertise from Britain. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E250 · Thu, December 07, 2023
Is BoJ preparing a pre-Christmas surprise?
Friday 8th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Probably not, is the answer to our headline, but NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets are pricing in a heightened expectation of the BoJ moving from negative rates sometime soon. The sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields yesterday and overnight almost wiped out the falls over the last month, but yields remain well below early November, when they almost touched 1%. Elsewhere, Australia’s trade surplus increased but it was largely due to a fall in capital goods imports, reversing the recent rise. Europe showed more signs of a slowdown, with German industrial production down and Q3 GDP revised lower. The focus now is now on non-farm payrolls. Ken says there’s more upside potential for bond yields if we assume markets have been too optimistic in their pricing of rate cuts next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E249 · Wed, December 06, 2023
All signs point to slower growth and falling inflation
Thursday 7th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Falling inflation and lowering interest rates is definitely the consensus view now. It comes at the cost of weaker demand, evidenced by the continued drop in oil prices. NAB’s Ray Attrill says falling fuel costs are no doubt helping European equities, which finished higher today whilst US share indices struggled to get traction. Markets are now pricing in 150bp in cuts from the ECB next year, although Ray suggests that’s overly optimistic. Australia’s GDP growth was much slower than expected last quarter, but there’s not been a strong response to it on currency and bond markets. The consumer is still finding money to keep spending and productivity isn’t making the gains the RBA would like to see. Now the focus is on jobs, with the weekly US jobless claims tonight ahead of the monthly non-farm payrolls tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E248 · Tue, December 05, 2023
A hold, an epiphany and jobs market easing
Wednesday 6th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA kept rates on hold, didn’t change too much in their statement, but Australian bonds still rallied. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it was a curious reaction, but just about every market wants to avoid contemplating that rates could go higher even if that might still be the case here. Globally the mood is being driven by weaker CPI data. The OECD revealed that it has fallen to the slowest pace since October 2021 in its member countries. And ECB hawk Isabel Schnabel has completely changed direction, suggesting rates there will fall next year. In the US the Services ISM rose a little and the jobs market eased a bit, helping contain wage price concerns. In short, it was generally a good news day. Although equities are still mixed and oil continues to head south. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E247 · Mon, December 04, 2023
A momentary change of direction
Tuesday 5th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With shares falling and bond yields rising, markets might have taken a step too far when it comes to anticipating the timing of rate cuts next year, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says cuts are still expected. They have just priced in a little more risk ahead of a series of key data releases this week, including payrolls (Friday) and services ISM (today). The RBA meets today and the accompanying statement could be a little dovish, given weaker inflation data, but there’s resilience in consumer and housing data that makes NAB believe a February hike is still likely. As well as the US Services ISM tonight, there’s also the JOLTs numbers (job openings and quits) which has had the power to move markets recently. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E246 · Sun, December 03, 2023
Yields falling further and Powell can’t stop them
Monday 4th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB When it comes to predicting rate cuts by the Fed, will the chair Jerome Powell be the last one to shift his position? During his ‘fireside chat’ on Friday he said it would be premature to assume they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, markets clearly aren’t paying too much attention, with yields falling sharply lower at the end of the week. Although there were two words in Powell’s talk that could support the idea of cuts sooner rather than later. Meanwhile two central banks are expected to keep rates on hold – the RBA tomorrow and the Bank of Canada later in the week. And focus now switches to employment numbers, with US non-farm payrolls data out on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E245 · Fri, December 01, 2023
Weekend Edition: Ross McEwan on the economy, housing, cybercrime, AI and home working
Friday 1st December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . On The Weekend Edition NAB CEO Ross McEwan says his focus next year is on keeping customers safe from cybercrime, fraud and scams. Phil Dobbie also asks him about the role of AI to help counter cybercrime as well as help in the day-to-day operation of the bank. In a wide-ranging discussion, they also look at the economic outlook for 2024, fixing Australia’s housing affordability and getting people back into the workplace. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E244 · Thu, November 30, 2023
Euroflation falls, the US dollar strikes back
Friday 1st December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB European inflation fells a little faster than expected. It’s knocked the Euro a little today, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says for the Euro to really see some gains it’ll take a combination of US rate cuts alongside strong growth outside the US, to help drive down the dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar ticked up a little today, with no surprises in the Core PCE numbers, and some unsurprising high-for-longer sentiment from Fed speakers. Jerome Powell will no doubt follow the same script in his fireside-chat later today. Aussie yields rose quite a bit higher overnight, perhaps because data is showing some resilience, particularly in housing. China’s PMI’s yesterday though, showed just how fragile their recovery is. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E243 · Wed, November 29, 2023
All steps in the right direction
Thursday 30th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian inflation was lower than expected yesterday. It was the same in Germany. And US quarterly PCE prices were revised lower. All signs that seem to be indicating price growth is slowing and central banks will be pushing rates lower. But there are some caveats to all that. NAB’s Gavin Friend reminds us that the monthly CPI numbers in Australia are heavily influenced by the sample rotation, which will have underplayed services inflation, so it’s too early to take NAB’s prediction of another hike off the table. In New Zealand, even though the RBNZ kept rates on hold yesterday, higher demand from immigration could force another move higher. Today’s US monthly core PCE deflator and the inflation numbers for the whole of the Eurozone will give a clearer picture. For now though, bond markets are enjoying the ride. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E242 · Tue, November 28, 2023
Something is giving, and it’s the pace of the US economy
Wednesday 29th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed lower as markets continue to expect rate cuts by the Fed next year. Tapas Strickland says NAB’s own modelling based on recent data supports significant cuts next year. The Fed’s Chris Waller, who had previously flagged concern about the pace of growth saying “something’s gotta give”. Now he’s saying it’s the pace of the economy that is giving and the Fed is in a good place to return inflation to 2%, eventually. Comments like that have helped push bond yields lower. Today the focus is on the first bits of CPI data from Europe, and Australia’s monthly CPI read. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E241 · Mon, November 27, 2023
An inbetweeny day
Tuesday 28th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s an in-between day, with little ion the way of economic news, but inflation data just round the corner, in the form of Australian CPI and US PCE. There were sizeable auctions of 2 and 5 year Treasuries this morning, with softer demand, but that hasn’t driven the direction of bond markets says NAB’s Skye Masters, because yields are down. Instead it adds to the mood that the Fed will cut rates, perhaps early next year. Softer US data, such as weaker new home sales and drops in employment in the Dallas Fed manufacturing index, add to the supporting evidence. Today Australian retail sales are released, and we talk through some of the findings in the latest NAB Online Sales Index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E240 · Sun, November 26, 2023
Falling dollar helps the Aussie, but only so far
Monday 27th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB At the end of a quiet week we saw the US dollar fall a little further on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this reflects the expectation that there will be no further hikes from the Fed. The Aussie dollar hasn’t realised the full potential, largely because of question marks over the speed of the Chinese recovery. There was mixed economic news at the end of the week; US PMIs were a little softer than expected, particularly for manufacturing. It seems Black Friday online sales were strong, and retail sales in New Zealand and Canada were better than expected. So, will too much resilience add to inflation woes. The BoE’s Huw Pill says supply constraints continue to be the issue so they need to hammer demand down to meet it. The key number this week will be the PCE inflation data out of the US. Nobody wants to see that tick up again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E239 · Fri, November 24, 2023
Weekend Edition: Three key trends in the super industry
Friday 24th November 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Consolidation will continue in the superannuation industry as a way of provided better returns for members. That’s the prediction from Mercer’s Chief Investment Officer Kylie Willment, talking to Phil on the Weekend Edition. Mercer recently merged with BP Super, of course, and Kylie says they are always on the look out for other opportunities. They are also focusing more on unlisted assets, that can provide value with more predictable returns. She talks through their key areas of focus. Finally, the Achilles Heal of Australian super is how funds manage the post-retirement relationship with members. Kylie says it’s what stopped Australia getting an A+ grade in the latest Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E238 · Thu, November 23, 2023
Europe a bit stronger (or less weak)
Friday 24th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were relatively quiet overnight with the US off for Thanksgiving, but stronger PMI data from Europe created some interest, pushing the Euro higher, but NAB’s Ray Attrill still says German can expect to enter a shallow recession. The pound performed slightly better because it provided the only PMI number that actually indicated growth. The Riksbank surprised by keeping rates on hold and right-wing anti-EU candidate Geert Wilders won the most votes in the Dutch general election. Today US PMIs will provide a useful comparison to the European numbers, and one month out from the next BoJ meeting we’ll get to see Japan’s CPI numbers today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E237 · Wed, November 22, 2023
Bullock’s hawkishness. Will one rise be enough?
Thursday 23rd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian inflation is now driven by local factors. That’s what the RBA’s Michelle Bullock said at the Australian Business Economists dinner last night. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it doesn’t sound like a central bank that’s done with interest rate hikes, and points to how we are sitting 100 basis points below our economic peers. So can we really expect to get away with just one more rate hike? Meanwhile softer data from the US, mixed, curiously, with rising inflation expectations. Oil is choppy ahead of the delayed OPEC+ meeting – Sally explains the significance of the delay. And the UK’s min-budget delivered little except a forecast for growth next year, light on business investment and heavily dependent on government consumption, whilst the Chancellor’s rhetoric promised the opposite. European PMIs are the big numbers today but trade will be light tonight as the US starts Thanksgiving. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E236 · Tue, November 21, 2023
A hawkish turn from the central banks
Wednesday 22nd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC minutes were cagey when it came to the prospect of rate cuts. The RBA minutes were the same, with Michelle Bullock also reiterating her concerns about persistent wage inflation. And the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey told UK politicians that markets were getting ahead of themselves when it came to pricing rate drops. Hence the mood is a little more sombre, with falls in equities and little movement in bonds. Oil has also been up and down today ahead of OPEC+ at the weekend. There are geopolitical factors at play too – a budget crisis in Germany and fears Iran is supplying ballistic missiles to Russia. Today it’ll be interesting to see if the inflation expectations from the University of Michigan survey fall back down, after their surprise lift last time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E235 · Mon, November 20, 2023
Back to bonds
Tuesday 21st November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a big 20-year Treasury auction today, which went better than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets had assumed a flood of new issuance in a short week would suppress demand, but that wasn’t the case. Elsewhere, the overseas Yuan hit its highest level since early September. More positive sentiment from China is helping lift iron ore prices further, which is positive for the Australian dollar. Two sets of minutes are out in the next 24 hours – from the RBA and the FOMC. The Fed minutes were quickly outdated by the softer than expected inflation data in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E234 · Sun, November 19, 2023
Take a breather
Monday 20th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a quite day on Friday with very little of earth-shattering consequence to report. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk about just how devoid of new sit was. We did see a downside surprise in UK retail numbers but, as flagged on Friday podcast, it was a very wet month. Loil is up on the news that OPEC+ will extend its production cuts into the new year. Today is equally as quiet – if not more so – for data releases, but things do hot up later in the week with the release of PMIs, just as America sits down to its roast turkey dinner. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E233 · Fri, November 17, 2023
Weekend Edition: Let's Get Ethical
Friday 17th November 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Ethical investment, or ESG; it’s being talked about more and more. It seems more people want to be involved, so long as it provides the returns they expect. This week Phil is joined by Maria Loyez, Chief Customer Officer at Australian Ethical, a fund manager specialising in responsible investments. How does she see the balance between making the right choice for the planet and seeing a worthwhile return for investments by your business, your customers, or your own personal fund? Can you make money and save the planet? Yes, you can, says Maria so long as you recognise that ethical investments do not perform in the same way as an index fund. There’s also discussion on the findings in this week’s ‘2023 Responsible Investing Report’, published jointly with industry research firm Investment Trends. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E232 · Thu, November 16, 2023
Slowdown fears spoil the party
Friday 17th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB So, after the excitement of softening inflation in the US comes concern that its being accompanied by a delayed slowdown in the economy. That was certainly reflected in some of the second tier US data, and could explain a further fall in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Walmart reported weak sales too in October but highlighted an expected period of deflation in the months to come. Put all the pieces together and markets are increasing the expectation for rate cuts next year. It'll be a while before the RBA cuts rates, but at least yesterday’s surprise increase in employment numbers wasn’t enough to raise the likelihood of a December hike. Instead they’ll wait for the next set of inflation numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E231 · Wed, November 15, 2023
Goldilocks rides again
Thursdsay 16th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Goldilocks continues to deliver what America wants, with softer producer prices and only a slight move down in retail sales. Equity markets continue to enjoy the party, although bond yields are back on the rise. Hardly surprising given the scale of the moves this week, says NAB’s Tayor Nugent. A fall in oil should also not be over-interpreted, given the recent moves. Has the Goldilocks effect also moved to the UK. Okay, the economy isn’t as strong, but CPI has come down faster than expected, adding to the belief that the BoE has probably done all it need to do. The same isn’t being said about the RBA. Will they be influenced by today’s employment numbers? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E230 · Tue, November 14, 2023
US inflation slowdown fuels party mood
Wednesdsay 15th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation fell further than most expected – although NAB had predicted a downward surprise. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about the market response, which has been felt in equities, bonds and the dollar. It follows two big drops in Eurozone inflation, adding to the view that the worst is over and central banks can start focus on dropping rates rather than lifting. The US CPI comes in the thick of a range of critical data, including UK employment, Australian wages data, UK CPI, Japan’s CPI and a plethora of China numbers too. No wonder the markets are busy, and keen to party. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E229 · Mon, November 13, 2023
The only number that matters
Tuesday 14th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The NY Fed’s consumer inflation survey overnight had expectations fall a little over last month, in contrast to the University of Michigan survey last week, which had inflation expectations rising. So who do you believe? You believe the hard numbers, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, which are out tonight (Australia time). Market moves have been fairly restrained in the build up to the US CPI release, but the response could be quite marked. Ray says it’s worth looking to the second decimal place to get a real handle of the speed of travel. Locally the NAB Business Survey is out today along with the latest consumer sentiment read. The UK has employment numbers, the NFB small business survey is out and the ZEW survey for Germany. A busy day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E228 · Sun, November 12, 2023
US higher for longer, RBA more dovish
Monday 13th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It seems the more dovish sentiment in the US has been reversed by Jerome Powell suggesting the Fed might have more to do to keep inflation in check. NAB’s Skye Masters says the weak 30-year auction on Thursday has also seen yields push lower, along with upward pressure on inflation expectations. Moody’s also moved the US outlook from rating from stable to negative, which might have impacted yields at the margin. In Australia the Statement on Monetary Policy provided revised forecasts for Australia, which could be used as an argument for more rate hikes. Yet the language of the Statement was quite dovish. No wonder markets are confused. The key release this week, is US CPI tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E227 · Fri, November 10, 2023
Weekend Edition: Risky Business, Confusing Times
Friday November 10th 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . With the risk of interest rates going even higher, and a slug of the Australian population yet to move onto variable loans, are we about to see a sudden change in consumer spending as more households step off the fixed rate cliff. This week Sonia Straumann, NAB’s Executive, Credit Risk, says households have already modified their behaviour in readiness. But how much of their spending now is dependent on eating into cash reserves built up during the pandemic? And how will small businesses cope with a sustained period of lower consumption. Sonia says that’s one of the big risk factors, alongside commercial real estate, construction and farming. What else is keeping her awake at night? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E226 · Thu, November 09, 2023
Interest wanes at 30 year Treasury auction
Friday 10th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields kicked higher in the US after a $24 billion 30 year auction attracted less interest than expected. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the auction yields were 5 basis points higher than pre-sales. We discuss why interest in long duration bonds is falling. Markets are also preparing for words from Jerome Powell later today, following fairly dovish talk from other Fed speakers. Today the RBA releases forecasts in the Statement of Monetary Policy. So, what will Tapas be looking out for? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E225 · Wed, November 08, 2023
Oil readying for a slowdown
Thursday 9th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It looks like there’s heightening expectations of a global slowdown, evidenced by further significant falls in oil prices today and an end to the equities rally in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill says one former ECB Governor has added to the melancholic tone by suggesting Europe is heading for a recession next year, whilst inflation expectations one year out have risen by half a percent in one month. But generally, today, a few non definitive words from central bankers, otherwise, it’s been slim pickings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E224 · Tue, November 07, 2023
RBA late to the party
Wednesday 8th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA lifted rates, as expected, yesterday, with the possibility of another hike to come. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the central bank had always assumed it was different to others, with the flexibility of a longer runway to bring inflation down without damaging the economy. That premise is being challenged now as inflation itself is taking longer to come down, so the RBA could still be lifting rates just as other central banks start to acknowledge market expectations for rate cuts next year. So late to the party, and last to leave? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E223 · Mon, November 06, 2023
The rate that slows the nation
Tuesday 7th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB still firmly expects the RBA to lift interest rates today. As Talor Nugent observes, in a Bloomberg survey, 29 of 32 economists are expecting a hike. It’s a safer punt than anything on the Melbourne Cup today, although markets are still pricing a 30% chance that the RBA will keep rates on hold. We also get a sneak peak at the RBA’s forecasts today, with the detail provided in Friday’s Monetary Policy Statement. Meanwhile, markets have turned a little, after last week’s bond and equity rally, built on the growing belief that the Fed will drop rates starting mid-2024. Elsewhere, the BoJ Governor has reiterated a lift in rates this year is very unlikely – hardly a surprise given its November – and Robert Holzmann has said the ECB could still raise rates, if necessary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E222 · Sun, November 05, 2023
Tide turns after US jobs data
Monday 6th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Softer ISM data and weaker than expected jobs data in the US on Friday has seen a rally on bonds, pushing yields down and taking the US dollar down with it. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, not only have markets reduced their expectations for future hikes, but an increasing number of investors are expecting rate cuts by the middle of next year. It’s a different story for Australia though. The RBA is likely to show the job isn’t done with a rate hike tomorrow, with the possibility of another to follow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E221 · Fri, November 03, 2023
Weekend Edition: Ann Sherry on driving change in uncertain times
Friday 3rd November 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . We’ve been through a tumultuous time, with COVID, inflation, geopolitical unrest. Go back a few years we were also struggling with sluggish growth. It’s been a tricky time for businesses, so what is the magic sauce that has seen successful businesses navigate their way through and come out on top? Ann Sherry has a wealth of business experience. She’s worked in banking, tourism, and education. She is Chancellor of Queensland University of Technology and sits on the boards of NAB, the Enero Group and the Port of Townsville. She headed Carnival Cruises during a period of turmoil, but managed to reinvent the brand and restore goodwill. On this edition of The Weekend Edition Ann talks about how companies should be reinventing themselves to cope with changing habits. And how investors can determine which companies are heading in the right direction. She suggests there’s not enough focus on forward indicators that show you how well a company is performing internally. It’s a useful and entertaining twenty minutes for business managers, entrepreneurs, and investors alike. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E220 · Thu, November 02, 2023
Back to bonds as BoE forecasts a growth hit for Britain
Friday 3rd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields are much lower across the board today. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if bonds are back in fashion. They are for now, says Ken, but he doesn’t discount the idea that we’ll see 10 year Treasuries hitting 5% sometime soon. Pauses from central banks are certainly helping to push risk assets higher, with equity markets doing particularly well. The Bank of England and Norge Bank both kept rates on hold yesterday, with the BoE revising its UK growth forecast down to zero for 2024. Tonight, non-farm payrolls will be watched closely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E219 · Wed, November 01, 2023
Hold on says the Fed. But for how long?
Thursday 2nd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rate son hold this morning, but there are no signs that they have finished yet. Jerome Powell was clear to point out every meeting remains live. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the statement has been updated to include financial conditions as one of the determinants of future policy, reflecting the recent rises in long end bond yields. Will those yields influence future policy decisions? Powell said it was possible if a few conditions are met. Later on, the Bank of England and Norges Bank – both expected to remain on hold. Will the RBA next week be out of kilter with the other central banks? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E218 · Tue, October 31, 2023
BoJ loosens its grip, Fed will keep a tight hold
Wednesday 1st November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of Japan is loosening its grip on yields. Today NAB’s Skye Masters explains what the move means and how markets responded. A sharp move down in the Yen suggests that more was expected. Also today further weakness in Europe – in growth and inflation – shows the ECB has almost certainly run its course, and more talk of how quickly they will start to lower rates. Meanwhile, all eyes today on the FOMC tomorrow morning, just before Thursday’s podcast and why, even though the will keep rates on hold, it’s not plain sailing for the US by any means. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E217 · Mon, October 30, 2023
Escalation fears ease, RBA’s expectations rise, Europe’s inflation falls
Tuesday 31st October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities have risen today, alongside a fall in oil prices, as hopes rise that the Gaza war will not see contagion throughout the region. Meanwhile, Germany delivered slower GDP growth and falling inflation, ahead of the Europe wide data today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the pressure is off the ECB, who could likely reached their terminal rate, although at least one ECB member is saying there could be more. There will certainly be more from the RBA after yesterday’s retail numbers in Australia, which came in stronger than most had expected. Plus, the Bank of Japan meets today, amidst expectations that they will lift the cap on long end yields. We also we get confirmation of the size of US bond issuance today – and the makeup of that issuance later this week. Each event will have an influence on bond yields and currencies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E216 · Sun, October 29, 2023
Preparing for the slowdown
Monday 30th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Are equity markets ahead of the curve? US firms have reported better than expected earnings and consumer spending is still growing. Yet shares are lower, with S&P entering correction territory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the tide is starting to turn. Earning projections are less promising, US person income is lower than spending and consumer inflation expectations are rising. The escalation in the war on Gaza over the weekend will add to concerns. It’s a tricky time for the FOMC meeting this week, and for the Bank of Japan tomorrow, faced with rising inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E215 · Fri, October 27, 2023
Weekend Edition: In it for the long haul
Friday 27th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In these uncertain times, of high inflation, high interest rates, changing consumer patterns, there are some things that seem a little more certain, like our shift to renewables and our need for investment in infrastructure as the climate changes, populations grow and consumer behaviour is transformed to the online world. Georgia Hall, ESG Analyst at Maple-Brown Abbott, joins Phil to talk about how they have given a priority to investing in long-term infrastructure plays, with geographic monopolies. What are the key ingredients for ensuring you have a safe long-term investment? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E214 · Thu, October 26, 2023
Return of the soft landing
Friday 27th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US GDP came in higher-than-expected driven by strong consumer spending. But the core PCE index grew at the slowest rate since Q4 2019. So, inflation cooling, consumption rising. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether it will last and, if so, why are equiites struggling to much? Meanwhile, there’s growing consensus that the RBA will lift rates. We look at what was said in front of Senate Estimates yesterday. And the ECB on hold. Did they have any choice? Plus, some more big earnings results from the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E213 · Wed, October 25, 2023
Aussie CPI & ECB; sentiment sours a little
Thursday 26th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation numbers for Australia were higher than NAB’s expectations, which were higher than market expectations. The number is also well above the RBA’s own forecasting which, NAB’s Gavin Friend say, leaves them with little choice than to pursue at least one more rate hike, starting next month. Elsewhere markets have returned to a more cautious approach, as hopes fade of a diplomatic resolution to the situation in Gaza and Israel. The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold and the ECB may well do the same, but have they both reached their peak? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E212 · Tue, October 24, 2023
Some hope, jobs confusion and Aussie CPI
Wednesday 25th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are displaying a degree of hope this morning, presumably because there has been no ground movement by Israelis into Gaza, but press reports seems somewhat less optimistic. Meanwhile, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest PMIs show the continuing divide between the US and Europe, with the EZ Services and Manufacturing numbers both pulled lower. The UK employment numbers have become somewhat unreliable, meaning the BoE has less certainty in one of the key indicators it tracks. For the RBA the most important number is released today – CPI for Q3. NAB believes the number will be high enough to see interest rates lifted in a couple of weeks. Plus, earnings results for Alphabet and Microsoft. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E211 · Mon, October 23, 2023
A wild night without direction
Tuesday 24th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were no strong data releases over the last 24 hours to give markets direction and some have clearly made the bold assumption that no ground movement into Gaza is a sign that tensions are easing. As a result, we’ve seen bond yields pull off recent highs, equity markets rise, gold fall and the US dollar down. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the geopolitical uncertainty and the sell-off in bond yields has rattled investors and there’s plenty of reason to sit on your hands, which is why we are range trading, albeit with large intraday swings. Todays PMIs might give a little direction, whilst locally eyes and ears will be on Michelle Bullock, the new RBA Governor. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E210 · Sun, October 22, 2023
Have yields peaked? Will central banks ease off the pedal?
Monday 23rd October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US 10-year treasuries got up to 4.996% last week – not quite making it over 5%. So, does that mean they have peaked? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of what could be a volatile week, as uncertainty remains over the conflict in Israel and Gaza. The key data point for Australia this week is the Q3 CPI numbers, which Ray says will be the arbiter as to whether the RBA does lift rates at the start of November. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Loretta Mester suggested one more hike should do it for the US. Then job done? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E209 · Fri, October 20, 2023
Weekend Edition: Could Europe Bring Down Rates Faster?
Friday 20th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . We invited UK-based economist Vicky Pryce on to talk about why Europe was struggling with growth whilst the US was on the road to recovery? How much is down to the issue of applying a single monetary policy across a diverse range of EU member economies? How much is the fact that Europe hasn’t injected as much fiscal stimulus as the US, with its Inflation Reduction program? All of the above applies, but Vicky suggests, with inflation on the way down, the ECB, BoE and other central banks shouldn’t be delaying lowering interest rates, to enable economies to recover. Central banks need to change their rhetoric so bond yields subside, and they need to ease off quantitative tightening until a more appropriate time. A very different perspective to the IMF that has warned that easing too quickly can cause inflation to re-emerge. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E208 · Thu, October 19, 2023
10 year treasuries nip at 5 percent
Friday 20th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a day that has seen sell-offs in equities, treasuries and the US dollar. So where is the money going? NAB’s Ken Crompton says some of it is still pouring into oil, as uncertainty mounts over the Israeli-Gaza war, but we’re also seeing a little diversity between the US, which continues to show signs of resilience, and Europe, where the news is less positive. Australia saw a fall in the unemployment rate yesterday, so there’s also discussion about what that means for the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E207 · Wed, October 18, 2023
Yields Bondanza
Thursday 19th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields reached new multi-year highs overnight, with sharp rises on 10 years in the US and the UK. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, this time, it isn’t further central bank speculation driving yields higher, it’s the rising tensions in the Middle Easta and concerns about oil prices. Nonetheless, yields might be influenced by the much-anticipated Jerome Powell talk in the early hours of tomorrow morning. The RBA’s Michelle Bullock had a fireside chat yesterday – we give the lowdown on that and what to expect in Australia’s labour market numbers today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E206 · Tue, October 17, 2023
US shopping adds pressure on the Fed
Wednesday 18th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are now more focused on central bank expectations, with the hope that world leaders can contain the war in Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the stronger than expected US retail numbers, as inflation expectations rise. The RBA are also sounding more hawkish, with the minutes of the last meeting talking of lower tolerance for the slower return of inflation. UK CPOI today could fuel a hike by the BoE as well. But, two central banks are likely to be on hold, with Canada and New Zealand both seeing inflation come in lower than expected. Plus, which well-paid deejay is hanging up his headphones? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E205 · Mon, October 16, 2023
Markets accept a little more risk
Tuesday 17th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have backtracked on their measure of risk emanating from the middle east, with hopes that some sort of resolution will be brokered to avoid a regional war. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a response to the fact that things haven’t escalated in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, in the world of central banks, markets are waiting in anticipation for a Jerome Powell address later in the week to see if he mirrors the suggestion from others at the Fed that higher yields could negate the need for further hikes in rates. It’s a different message from the BoE’s Huw Pill who said the question of more rises was ‘finely balanced’. Lots of data today, including US retail sales, CPI for NZ and Canada, UK wages data and the RBA minutes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E204 · Sun, October 15, 2023
Risky
Monday 16th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East is seeing a rush to safe-haven assets, including a sizeable lift in gold prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland wonders whether many investors had been caught short, buying in on central banks’ higher for longer narrative, without factoring in the risk of geopolitical uncertainty. The Israel Gaza conflict s now being taken seriously, with sharp rises in oil as questions remain around how much of a regional war could emanate from the unrest. Meanwhile, the question remains about how well contained inflation really is? The Michigan survey showed inflation expectations rising slightly. Rising oil prices will only add to that. Plus, an important week for Australian releases, Tapas talks us through it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E203 · Fri, October 13, 2023
Weekend Edition: Is super delivering on the promise?
Friday 13th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Our super contributions are designed to ensure we have a happy retirement, so is that working? The median balance for a man in his early sixties is $212k, for a woman its $158k. When will we reach an adequate level for most to lead a comfortable life? And, as the size of Australian superannuation assets grows, where do the investments go? Phil talks to Diane Somerville, Principal for Superannuation Consulting at Deloitte Australia about the growth of Australian superannuation, consolidation within the industry and the impacts of COVID. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E202 · Thu, October 12, 2023
US Inflation too hot to ignore
Friday 13th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation came in stronger than expected, pushing yields higher and strengthening the US dollar. NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests that markets are questioning the suggestion that higher yields would negate the need for further rises. Elsewhere oil has been steadied somewhat by diplomatic efforts from the US and China. UK GDP came in weak, and there’s a wealth of China data today. Also on the podcast Phil talks to Jennifer Mackinlay, Austrade’s General Manager for Europe, about how they are flying the flag for the Aussie renewables industry. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E201 · Wed, October 11, 2023
More caution from the Fed, very little in Gaza
Thursday 12th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst central banks, particularly the Fed, are increasingly cautious about further rate hikes, the RBA’s Christopher Kent hinted that more might need to be done to slow the Aussie economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a hike in November is likely to get the market speculating on another one early next year. Meanwhile, there’s very little caution being displayed in the Middle East, with volatility in oil prices as the question remains as to whether Iran will be implicated in any way and face sanctions that could cut global oil supplies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E200 · Tue, October 10, 2023
Expect the unexpected
Wednesday 11th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been a few surprises so far this week. Obviously the Hamas attacks on Israel is a bad start, and there’s every chance that will escalate further. Secondly, the more dovish approach from Fed speakers, heightening the expectation that the Fed will not lift rates again this year. JBWere’s Sally Auld says there’s still a string chance that another hike will happen, and that the US will face a recession down the track as a consequence. The third surprise, if it happens, is a one trillion Yuan stimulus measure reportedly being considered by China. All, of that, ahead of the US CPI numbers later this week, which may add to the list of surprises. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E199 · Mon, October 09, 2023
Conflict uncertainty mixed with rate optimism
Tuesday 10th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The market action this morning is perhaps less pronounced than could be expected, given the scale of the conflict between Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says some of the turnaround in US equities came from Fed speakers who seem to be shifting their bias away from more hikes to keeping cash rates where they are. That’s acted as a distraction from the main event, but individual shares match what you’d expect from a war setting, with airlines down, defence stocks up, and the same with oil. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is out today. Will it show more resilience that cold further enhance the case for further hikes by the RBA? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E198 · Sun, October 08, 2023
Hot jobs numbers add to treasuries sell-off
Monday 9th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday surprised many. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the 336k new jobs was well above expectations and pricing for another hike by the Fed this year increased slightly. But a clearer picture of the direction of the Fed can be gauged after the release of US CPI later this week. Canada’s employment numbers told a similar story on Friday, coming in higher than forecast. There will be some unease around today, depending on developments in the confrontation between Hamas and Israel, as to whether Iran becomes embroiled in it all. That could push oil prices higher today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E197 · Fri, October 06, 2023
Weekend Edition: The Chinese Way
Friday 7th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . There are tentative signs that China’s domestic economy is picking up. On The Weekend Edition Sheana Yue from Capital Economics in Singapore says early indications are that the Golden Week this week has seen increased demand for housing and other goods and China could meet is 5% growth target this year. So, is there more reason to be optimistic about the world’s second largest economy? Sheana explains how, in the mid-term, the focus is less on major construction projects and more on IT and green technologies. Listen in to find out what that all means for the Australian economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E196 · Thu, October 05, 2023
What do we want to see in the jobs data?
Friday 6th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There has been so much volatility in bond and equity markets lately it’s hard to imagine that the non-farm payrolls data tonight won’t prompt some sort of response. But what are we expecting? NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the latest movements, which have been fairly relaxed over the last 24 hours. The Fed’s Mary Daly has suggested that rising 30 year yield shave been doing the work for the Fed, which could reduce the need for another hike. In the UK Bren Broadbent has suggested weaker data could see off any further hikes. And a lot of recent trade data suggests weakening demand, echoed by falling oil prices again today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E195 · Wed, October 04, 2023
Less jobs and cheaper oil pauses bond and equity sell-off
Thursday 5th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause today, with yields down a little and a largely positive picture for equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what’s driving this change of sentiment. He doesn’t believe it’s one key thing but it could be down to lower jobs numbers in the latest ADP report, sharp falls in oil prices, no big surprises in the US Services ISM and the danger of a US shutdown back on the list of concerns. All of these factors could lessen the chance of another Fed hike before Christmas, but it’ll be Friday nights non-farm payrolls data that really sets the direction for the start of next week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E194 · Tue, October 03, 2023
US yields jolt higher and all that that entails.
Wednesday 4th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday we asked how much higher US yields could go. The answer today is more than yesterday. Yields pushed higher again, the US dollar gained strength on the back of it, with the Aussie dollar, a day after the RBA kept rates on hold, being punished the most. So, how much higher for Treasury yields now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its not unusual for the 10 year rate to reach the same level as the cash rate, so yields could easily push above 5%. How does the RBA react if stronger yields in the US keep hitting the Aussie dollar? Plus, the significant moves in the Yen today as well. All because the JOLTs data came in higher than expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E193 · Mon, October 02, 2023
US yields push higher, BoJ steps in, RBA to stand firm
Tuesday 3rd October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yields have pushed higher this morning on the weekend’s news that a shutdown of US government has been pushed back, but the same yawning chasm exists between both parties. Yields have also risen on the latest Manufacturing ISM, which came in stronger than expected. NAB’s Skye Masters says we are seeing a strong response to any data, as markets look for clues about when rates will be lifted, and how long before they start moving down. Another case in point is today’s rise in UK Gilt yields, as the BoE’s Catherine Mann suggests inflation might be more persistent than their own forecasts. Today Michelle Bullock chairs her first RBA meeting, but there is a low expectation that rates will rise – not yet anyway. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E192 · Fri, September 29, 2023
Weekend Edition: Is NetZero transitioning us to higher inflation?
Friday 29th September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The races is on to meet the 2050 NetZero target, and the 2030 target of 82% renewable energy. Australia isn’t the only country racing for the same finish line. Virginia Christie says the demand for inputs to build the infrastructure, and the expertise needed to manage it, will be inflationary, in the same way the mining boom was. Virginia is a governing body member of WA’s Economic Regulation Authority and, before that, spent many years at the Treasury and the RBA. Both of those bodies face a challenge about how, not only to meet the 2050 target but how to navigate through the unavoidable high inflation environment that precedes it. It’s a thought-provoking episode that’s definitely worth a listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E191 · Thu, September 28, 2023
Diverging paths
Friday 29th September 2023 US confidence seems to be building, whilst Europe is still in the doldrums. US equities have risen, perhaps helped by the hopes of a visit by President Xi later this year. Europe could have made more of falling inflation in Germany, but is perhaps more concerned about rising debt in Italy. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the differences, which has also seen an increasing spread in yields across the Atlantic. The imminent government shutdown could have a lot to do with it. It’s a busy day for data, including US PCE deflators and, over the weekend, China’s Caixin PMIs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E190 · Wed, September 27, 2023
Oil’s low stockpiles, sticky Aussie services inflation
Thursday 28th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s It’s the same story again today – equities hurting, the US dollar higher and bond yields reaching 16 hear highs. What’s changed today is a sharp rise in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s a great deal of nervousness that supplies in the US have been destocked too far, down to levels last seen in 2014. Meanwhile, bond yields continue to push higher with little to dissuade investors away from the high for longer mantra. Hence, a town-hall session with Jerome Powell today will attract a lot of interest. Meanwhile, sticky services inflation in Australia yesterday added to the likelihood of an RBA hike in November. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E189 · Tue, September 26, 2023
Will Aussie inflation knock the RBA off its perch?
Wednesday 27th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still a little directionless, with no substantial or surprising data to evoke any substantial moves in any asset classes. The only real movement is in equities, which continue to fall now the higher for longer message has sunk in. NAB’s Gavin Friend describes it as a wall of worry. But will we see a shift in direction from today through, as the rest of the week is filled with inflation data, starting with Australia. Could the services CPI be enough to force the RBA to make a move? Not just yet, reckons Gavin. Later in the week European CPI will add to the global picture about whether or not we are over the worst of it, before the US core-PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E188 · Mon, September 25, 2023
Bond yields higher, but directionless
Tuesday 26th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were big moves higher in bond yields overnight, particularly at the long end. It’s been significant bear steepening, says NAB’s Skye Masters, pointing to the hawkish statements from central banks indicating rates will remain at restrictive levels for quite some time. That’s happening despite more indicators suggesting there is growing weakness in the global economy, but bank boards will want to see reductions in inflation before they change that stance. If the bond markets seem a little directionless right now, maybe inflation numbers later this week will help them see the light. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E187 · Sun, September 24, 2023
Still more Rate Expectations
Monday 25th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The path of central banks does seem to be having as many twists and turns as a Dickensian novel. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the path of bond yields at the end of the week showed how the UK is taking a divergent path from the US, where central bank speakers are still suggesting there will be more hike(s) to come. PMIs on Friday continued to show that the US economy seems to be faring better than Europe. But the US soft landing rhetoric is being challenged, with equity markets taking a hit, the automotive workers strike likely to have more impact and the prospect of a government shutdown at the end of the week all the more likely. This week the data in Europe, the US and Australia will be focused on inflation, naturally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E186 · Fri, September 22, 2023
The Weekend Edition: The long road back for small business
Friday 22nd September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It’s a tough time for small businesses in Australia and the road back from COVID seems to be a lot longer one that most expected. In this episode of The Weekend Edition Phil talks to Ana Marinkovic, NAB’s executive general manager of the Small Business Bank, who describes a two-speed recovery, between those who have been able to cut costs and embrace online, and those who haven’t. Those unable to find cost effective labour are being hit particularly hard. But many businesses hit with rising costs are reluctant to push their prices up, taking a margin hit instead. So, looking closely at your operating costs and not being afraid to reprice are some of the key takeouts from Ana on this week’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E185 · Thu, September 21, 2023
BoE joins those on hold. Who will break first?
Friday 22nd September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of England has kept rates on hold for now. Many other central banks have met over the last 24 hours – some have been on hold, some continue to raise rates, one has even cut rates. But bond yields continue to rise and equity markets have taken a hit. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it’s a sign that investors aren’t convinced that the tightening cycle is over just yet. US continues to display resilience that could suggest the Fed will do more. Even New Zealand, where the RBNZ has pushed rates have gone further than many, GDP has shown a strong comeback. So, the future is still uncertain. The Bank of Japan is next to meet. It’s safe to assume they’ll be on hold but, again, for how much longer? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E184 · Wed, September 20, 2023
The Fed’s narrow path is getting longer
Thursday 21st September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The response to the FOMC announcement this morning was swift, with 2-year Treasury yields hitting a 17 year high. The equity markets switched into negative territory too. Why? NAB’s Gavin Friend says the fact that rates are on hold wasn’t a surprise, it was the rise in the median rate forecasts for next year and the year after. Higher for longer is slowly sinking in, but now, perhaps, it's even longer than many had imagined. Gilt yields took a hit as UK CPI came in much lower than anticipated. Could this mean the BoE will keep rates on hold? And a swag of other central banks today, plus New Zealand’s GDP. They are expected to claw out of recession, but for how long? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E183 · Tue, September 19, 2023
Hang on for a hold
Wednesday 20th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This time tomorrow the Fed will have decided, and the assumption is that they will keep rates on hold. But for how long? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s an assumption of at least one more hike, which is being strengthened by further signs of persistent inflation. Oil nearing $100 isn’t helping and neither is higher than expected inflation numbers from Canada. But the soft-landing story remains, demonstrated further by revisions to the OCED’s GDP forecasts, which has upped growth for the US and downgraded Europe. We also delve into the RBA minutes from yesterday, looking for clues about the direction from here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E182 · Mon, September 18, 2023
Too much speculation, too much liquidity, not enough oil?
Tuesday 19th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As we wait for the barrage of central banks in the second half of the week, starting with the Fed, a Reuters report suggests the ECB is looking at reducing the high level of excess reserves which could be impacting the effectiveness of monetary policy. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s only natural for them to consider reducing their balance sheet once they near the end of the rate cycle. In the US, meanwhile, the BIS has warned of too much leverage in short positions on US Treasury Futures. Nothing that the Fed hasn’t previously warned about, says Skye. A bigger concern is the rise in oil, with some commentators suggesting it could peak at $100 this week. How does that play in the strategy for central banks? And, locally, RBA minutes. Surprises are unlikely this time round, but you never know! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E181 · Sun, September 17, 2023
A week of central bank uncertainty
Monday 18th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed isn’t the only central bank making a call this week. There’s also that expected hike from the Bank of England, plus the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. Plus, the RBA minutes and day one in the new job for Michelle Bullock. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says opinions are still very divided, even within central banks, about whether they need to continue lifting rates to beat inflation. Hence yields lifted further on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E180 · Fri, September 15, 2023
The Weekend Edition: It’s tough at the top of the mountain
Friday 15th September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The BoE’s Huw Pill recently likened the path of interest rates to Table Mountain, as he gazed out the window of a conference in Jo’burg. The FT’s Markets Editor Katie Martin says markets have finally accepted the high for longer mantra from central banks, but says it’s not been an easy time for analysts in financial markets, particularly those who had been telling clients to prepare for the US recession that never came. Does that mean it won’t come? And if it doesn’t, what’s the impact of prolonged strength in the US dollar which could add to inflation pressures elsewhere? Then there’s the question of politics. Will interest rates start to come down – like they have in Poland – because of political pressures. The Morning Call’s Phil Dobbie talks to Katie about the unchartered waters that lie below the smooth surface of central banks’ Table Mountain trajectory. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E179 · Thu, September 14, 2023
Europe reaches the peak, or is it a false summit?
Friday 15th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just as NAB predicted, the ECB has lifted rates again, with a swift response in European bond yields and the value of the Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the announcement, the response and the question of whether there is more to come. The ECB also revised down its growth forecast, and upped its inflation expectations a little. Elsewhere, the US reported strong retail numbers., following on from Australia’s higher than expected employment data yesterday. Is read likely to lead the respective central banks to take a more hawkish line? Lots of data from China today – will any of it knock the wind out of the Aussie dollar, which is on the rise against a rising US dollar this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E178 · Wed, September 13, 2023
Higher than expected US CPI fails to move markets
Thursday 14th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Even though US core CPI came in higher than expected, there was little movement in bond and currency markets. NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains how the market can sometimes expect more than expected! Plus, weaker GDP numbers for the UK. Are they entering into a recession? And will softer data in Europe recently mean a pause by the ECB. NAB isn’t expecting it. Plus what the latest NAB spending data tells us about the state of the Aussie economy right now, ahead of labour market data today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E177 · Tue, September 12, 2023
Aussie consumer confidence hit but businesses keep prices up
Wednesday 13th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The NAB Business Survey yesterday showed that price growth remained elevated and business conditions rose. NAB’s Ray Attrill says an interesting takeout is the contrast between the resilience showing up in business surveys, against consumer confidence. Even though individual consumer spending is slowing, higher levels of immigration means businesses are still seeing growth and in a position, for now, to pass on costs. It’s a different story n the UK, where wages continue to rise, but markets are lowering their expectations for a hike from the Bank of England this month. Listen in to find out why. And the elephant in the room – the price of oil. Expect to see it reflected in the headline US CPI rate today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E176 · Mon, September 11, 2023
Aussie dollar boosted on China fix. Japanese yields boosted by potential BoJ switch.
Tuesday 12th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB How soon will Japan move from negative interest rates? Maybe sooner than we thought after Gov Ueda’s interview over the weekend. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks about the response in Japanese Bond Yields yesterday and overnight. That, combined with a stronger push in the CNY reference rate by the PBoC, pushed the US dollar lower and helped boost the Aussie dollar, to be one of the strongest currency performers. In Europe the EC lowered its growth forecasts, whilst the words from BoE speakers was sounding more hawkish. Today, the NAB business survey will be keenly watched, along with New Zealand’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update which, Ken says, could signal the need for more government borrowing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E175 · Sun, September 10, 2023
G20 said nothing, wait for the data
Monday 11th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The G20, unsurprisingly, didn’t come up with any solid plans about tackling the global economic downturn and inflation concerns. Perhaps it exposed the size of the agenda gap between the west and the BRICs component. China continues to avoid any solid plan of its own, to lift its growth, with the WSJ suggesting President Xi’s tight grip on policy is a big part of the problem. Japan’s currency, meanwhile, continues to weaken, so the USA dollar continues to strengthen. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about how markets are positioned at the start of a week that is quite rich in data, with US CPI, UK GDP and Australian employment, plus the ECB rate decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E174 · Fri, September 08, 2023
If we only plan to meet our climate targets, we’re missing a trick
Friday 8th September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia is chasing two climate targets. First, to reduce emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2050, and NetZero by 2050. That’s going to take massive investment in infrastructure and capabilities. But, as Deloitte’s Claire Ibrahim explains, if we only focus on the lowest-cost approach to meeting those targets we are likely to miss out on the upside opportunity. The real question is, how can Australia benefit from the low carbon future? Phil talks to Claire about the NAB sponsored report “All Systems Go: Powering Ahead”, and more generally, how are we positioned to take full advantage of what lies ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E173 · Thu, September 07, 2023
US dollar dominance continues as Yuan hits 16 year low
Friday 8th Septembr 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to hold its strength against weak economic data from Europe and a continuing slide in the Yuan, which has hit a 16-year low. But, JBWere’s Sally Auld says there was a glimmer of hope in China’s trade numbers for August, with signs that export activity is stabilising after significant falls earlier in the year. But we shouldn’t expect any massive upswing anytime soon. Australia’s trade surplus narrowed with a fall in export growth, but a rise in imports, driven in part by people buying cars. Philip Lowe used his farewell speech yesterday to reemphasise his concerns over Australia’s falling productivity. Europe delivered further signs of weakness. Over the weekend China delivers CPI and PPI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E172 · Wed, September 06, 2023
A beige soft landing, but is US service growth too strong?
Thursday 7th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed a bit higher overnight as US Services came in a bit higher than anticipated, along with wage growth. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through how it has been interpreted. The Beige Book is out and has soft landing written all over it, even if it is not explicitly spelt out. In the UK the BoE Governor is hinting that rate hikes are not a full gone conclusion. They didn’t happen in Canada yesterday. There’s also discussion on Australia’s GDP numbers yesterday and the trade numbers to keep across today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E171 · Tue, September 05, 2023
Out with a whimper not a bang
Wednesday 6th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It came as no surprise to anyone when the RBA announced no change to rates yesterday but, as NAB’s Tayor Nugent explains, there were references to further tightening if necessary. NAB still expects there will be one more hike before Christmas. So, can Australia pull off a US-style soft landing? The Aussie dollar fell sharply yesterday, in part because of a weaker than expected Caixin Services PMI. Rising oil prices could present a threat to headline inflation rates, as Saudi Arabia an Russia confirm their production cuts will continue until December. Australia’s GDP read is expected to show modest growth today, and the US Servies ISM will, presumably, continue to support the notion of a soft-landing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E170 · Mon, September 04, 2023
Lowe’s Last Stand, Lagarde’s Humble Pie
Tuesday 5th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Philip Lowe holds his final RBA meeting today. No press conference either. The expectation is that rates will be kept on hold for now. Bond yields have pushed a little higher, perhaps on the expectation that rates will push higher later in the year, which is NAB’s prediction. Europe saw some more soft data, along with words from ECB’s Christine Lagarde apologising for not always getting forecasts right and saying they needed to be more humble. Part of that humility was giving no indication of what t the ECB will do next. Trading was thin with the US on holiday for Monday, with share and bond markets closed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E169 · Sun, September 03, 2023
Was US payrolls a Goldilocks moment?
Monday 4th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The number of American jobs rose in data released Friday. Normally this would be seen as a sign of a tightening labour market, but a sharp rise in those entering the labour force means the unemployment rate has actually increased, whilst wage increases have slowed. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and Joe Biden couldn’t have hoped for anything better, even if they wrote the numbers themselves. All in all it has reduced the expectations of a Fed rate hike later this month. Locally, there’s little chance of a rate rise in Philip Lowe’s last meeting at the RBA, but NAB still expects at least one more hike before the year is out. So, what data will drive that decision? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E168 · Fri, September 01, 2023
Weekend Edition: Is Monetary Policy Working? Which Central Banks have got it right?
Friday 1st September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It started out as a transitory problem driven by post-COVID supply constraints. Central banks thought it would pass. Then the mood switched and monetary tightening kicked in. But different central banks started at different times, hiking at different speeds to end up in very different places. But is monetary policy effective in an environment like this? And what about governments choosing to use fiscal stimulus measures, does that help or hinder the quest for lower inflation? Phil Dobbie talks to JBWere’s Chief Investment Officer Sally Auld about the variety of approaches being taken to tackle inflation. Importantly, how does Australia fare? Her views on that are certainly worth a listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E167 · Thu, August 31, 2023
Heading Up Table Mountain
Friday 1st September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Speaking in Cape Town the Bank of England’s Huw Pill has likened their policy approach to Table Mountain, with interest rates remaining flat for some time before falling away quickly. So, does he mean they’ve reached the summit. It seems likely that the ECB is still in the cable car on the way up, with inflation remaining persistent. NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets have priced in only one more rise, which is a bit optimistic he suggests. The Aussie dollar has been helped by positive capex figures locally yesterday, together with more positive signs from China, including an improvement in PMIs. The key number today, of course, is non-farm payrolls for the US. The markets will be very responsive to any surprises. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E166 · Wed, August 30, 2023
Soft is good for the US, but European CPI is harder to take
Thursday 31st August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There seems to be lots of good news in data from the US lately if the assumption is that soft data is good right now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we’ve been seeing a bit of that this week, including a downward revision in US GDP and the latest ADP jobs numbers reaffirming that the tightness in the labour market is continuing to ease. It’s a different story for Europe, where inflation remains persistent. The full Eurozone CPI number is published today, but data from Germany and Spain shows the ECB has more to do. Locally, the RBA is likely to be on hold next week after yesterday’s softer CPI read, but don’t assume inflation has gone away or that the RBA won’t hike again. As we explain in today’s episode. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E165 · Tue, August 29, 2023
A quick JOLT to the equity and bond markets
Wednesday 30th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Job openings declined more than expected in the latest data from the US. That’s seen bond yields drive lower as investors hope this slight weakening in the labour market will see off any further hikes by the FOMC. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’ll have to be confirmed with the non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday night. The ADP employment numbers later today have been a notoriously unreliable indicator lately, but markets are still likely to respond if the number falls outside expectations. Locally, Australia’s CPI data is out today, ahead of the RBA next week. Taylor talks through what to look out for in today’s numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E164 · Mon, August 28, 2023
Choppy shopping
Tuesday 29th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian retail numbers were a little higher than expected last month, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Matildas Effect will be partially responsible for that. Generally, though, the trend is weaker, particularly given the rising population base, so there’s no reason to expect the RBA to see it as a sign of stubborn resilience in consumption. There’s some discussion on the podcast about how signs are showing the opposite, here and in the US. China has announced measures to encourage extra investment, but markets lost their initial enthusiasm fairly quickly. New Zelaand meanwhile, has had its report card from the IMF and has announced plans to cut government spending but, as Ray suggests, not in any meaningful way. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E163 · Sun, August 27, 2023
A Jackson Hole Lot of Nothing
Monday 28th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If markets were hanging out for some unique wisdom from any central banks at Jackson Hole they would have been disappointed. All it did was dismiss any hopes of a more dovish take from Jerome Powell and his compatriots. NAB’s Skye Masters says the focus on Wyoming, meant less attention was given to the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations survey, which has been heading higher for the last two months. “That stickiness is inflation is a little bit concerning”, she says. With Jackson Hole behind us, the focus is now on a week rich in important data, including Australian retail sales (today) and CPI (Wednesday), and US payrolls numbers on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E162 · Fri, August 25, 2023
Weekend Edition: Fixing Australia’s productivity problem
Friday 25th August 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia’s falling productivity is in focus as we emerge from the pandemic. The Productivity Commission has provided recommendations for helping resolve the issue, and earlier in the week the Business Council released its ‘Seize the Moment’ report about how the government and private sector can grow the economy. But how much of the fall in productivity is simply the transitional impact from a rise in the services sector. It’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to Melissa Wilson, Senior Economist (NSW) at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA). They discuss how productivity gains can come from businesses across all sectors, and a part of it comes from a more adaptable approach, highlighted in CEDA’s recent Dynamic Capabilities report. So, whilst an industrial strategy for Australia would be useful, a lot of work can come from businesses taking a look at the way they operate. On that point, Melissa provides some useful insights on ‘The Weekend Edition’. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E161 · Thu, August 24, 2023
About turn ahead of Jackson Hole
Friday 25th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets lost confidence all of a sudden despite the standout earnings result and forecast from NVIDIA after the close yesterday. It did seem strange that there was such a focus on AI. Today shares are well down and NVIDIA has wiped out all of its gains. NAB’s David de Garis says there’s concerns that Jerome Powell will pull another rabbit out of his hat at Jackson Hole. There is a track record for markets being driven by central-bank speak at the Wyoming get together. Otherwise, there’s no clear reason for such an about turn. Jobs data held up in the US, durable goods orders were down, but largely accounted for by aircraft orders, and the Chicago Fed activity index was up. None can account for such an about turn. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E160 · Wed, August 23, 2023
Has the slowdown begun in earnest?
Thursday 24th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed lower on the back of weaker than expected PMI umbers, particularly in the UK and Europe. The drop was less pronounced in the US but yields still pushed lower on the back of the European slowdown. Equities rose sharply, presumably on the prospect of less in the way of hikes from central banks. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says that’s unlikely in the case of the Bank of England, given inflation and wage pressures are still strong. Does this mean they will have to force the country into recession? The Aussie dollar has benefited from the yield and currency moves today, but it doesn’t change the outlook. And shares will be buoyed further by a stronger than expected result from NVIDIA, beating analysts’ forecasts for Q3. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E159 · Tue, August 22, 2023
US re-acceleration possible but Aussie dollar weakness expected to continue.
Wednesday 23rd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed’s Thomas Barkin has warned that strong consumer data from the US lately could mean a reacceleration in inflation is possible although, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, he also suggested that if inflation does come down then America is likely to see a soft landing. Inflation could rise in Europe for a different reason, if we see a reemergence in rising gas prices. If the temporary peak we are seeing now becomes sustained. A rapid recovery in China looks less likely by the day, but they at least have a plan, for a tech driven future where, supposedly, most of the existing growth is coming from. Still, that’ll take time – part of the reason NAB has revised it’s forecasts for the Aussie dollar. We talk through the revisions on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E158 · Mon, August 21, 2023
Treasury yields push to new post GFC highs
Tuesday 22nd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US Treasury Yields have hit new post GFC highs, but NAB’s Skye Masters says its hardly a surprise given where Fed funds rates currently are. She reminds us how last year 10-year Treasuries were trying to break 3%, hitting equity markets. Now yields are breaking above 4% and equities are rising. Does that support the soft-landing narrative, which is the expected outcome now by most US economists. Meanwhile, it seems we have to reassess expectations for the level of fiscal and monetary support for China. The PBoC eased the one year prime loan rate, but only by 10 basis points. That’s not going to move mountains, but it also didn’t have a profound impact on the broader market either. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E157 · Sun, August 20, 2023
Heading to Jackson Hole through a sea of uncertainty
Monday 21st August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Central bankers descend on Jackson Hole at the end of the week for their annual symposium. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether we actually have a clear idea of the tack Jerome Powell will take when he talks on Friday. In the past Fed governors have been a little less guarded at this event and there are mixed signals about how much further rates need to rise, if it all, and how long before they start to come down. Meanwhile, the week kicks off with question marks over how China addresses struggling debt and a slowing economy, whilst Japan was confronted with higher-than-expected inflation numbers at the end of last week. How will the Aussie dollar cope with this sea of uncertainty? And, by the way, The Morning Call is seven years old today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E156 · Fri, August 18, 2023
Weekend Edition: Bonds, back and not so boring
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Bond markets have been on a tumultuous rollercoaster ride. We saw a heavy sell off of last year as inflation picked up alongside rising interest rates. Now, they’re back, as a buying opportunity. So, are fund managers can seeing them as a growth asset rather than the customary defensive play? Phil puts that question to Katie Dean, head of FICC at Australian Super, Australia’s largest super fund. Katie also gives her views on how the macro picture is influencing purchase decisions. For example, she’s not a big advocate of the US soft landing scenario. Listen in for some useful insights and discussion points. Bonds are not boring, and neither is Katie! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E155 · Thu, August 17, 2023
China, more talk less action
Friday 18th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's becoming a familiar pattern lately, with bond yields pushing higher and equities taking a clobbering. The Aussie also continues to suffer as noises come from China about tackling their economic slowdown, but very little still in the way of sold action. Australia’s rise in unemployment yesterday might ease the pressure on the RBA to lift rates, but NAB’s David de Garis says, only for a month. It seems no country can now assume they have finished their tightening cycle. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E154 · Wed, August 16, 2023
The Inflation Risk is Strong
Thursday 17th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The tide seems to be turning as investors and policy makes toy up the risk of inflation starting to climb again. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there was a strong suggestion of it in the FOMC minutes, released this morning, although that wascounteracted by two Fed members calling for rates to be held steady. There was clear evidence of the need for more tightening in the UK, where the headline CPI level fell, but core inflation remained resilient, and services inflation ticked higher. So, what’s the risk on the home front? Today’s Australian employment numbers will be a crucial element of the RBA decision making. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E153 · Tue, August 15, 2023
Heavy data day turns markets red
Wednesday 16th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a busy day for data releases, having a profound impact on markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through what’s happened, not least of which is the continued signs of slowdowns in the Chinese economy. Japan too has shown a fall in consumption, even though GDP rose (it was all through exports). The Bank of Canada might not be done with rate hikes with a CPI surprise, and the Bank of England has to contend with higher-than-expected wages growth. Even the US is starting to question hopes of a soft landing. It’s been a session rich in data that’s raised more questions than its answered. It was a day light on good news. Maybe the Matildas can put that right. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E152 · Mon, August 14, 2023
Slow moves, thin trade ahead of data splurge
Tuesday 15th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a quiet session, but bond yields have continued to push higher and the US dollar has climbed with them. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are continuing to adjust to an outlook where the US economy is growing faster than expected, and how that could push out the path of easing from the Fed. Whilst trading has been thin on very little data, get ready for a deluge today. On the home front, Australian wages data, along with Chinese activity data, Japan’s GDP, UK employment, Canada’s CPI and US retail sales. When it rains it pours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E151 · Sun, August 13, 2023
Not out of the woods yet
Monday 14th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded positively to softer than expected US CPI last week, but the dial was turned back quite a bit on Friday when producer prices showed an unexpected increase, particularly in the services sector. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s still an open question about how much wage growth and nominal demand are in keeping with the expected fall in inflation. Bond yields rose markedly in the UK as GDP came in higher than expected, suggesting the BoE will want to do more to slow demand there. A quiet session lies ahead, but we take you through the data to look out for this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E150 · Fri, August 11, 2023
Weekend Edition: Australian shares – destination unknown?
Friday 11th August 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Please click here to view our NAB Financial Services Guide. We are in the midst of the Australian reporting season, so what does it hold for Australian businesses and the share market? Gemma Dale is director, self-managed super funds and investor behaviour at NAB Trade. She joins Phil on this weekend’s podcast. They talk about how global events are playing on local shares, the role of tech in Australia, the impact inflation on growth businesses and finding the high “moat” businesses. If you are struggling to value businesses in these uncertain times, this weekend’s podcast is worth 15minutes of your time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E149 · Thu, August 10, 2023
Inflation eases, Fed hold expected, but bond yields rise
Friday August 11th 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation has eased, by almost any measure you care to use, and jobless claims are heading the direction the Fed would like to see as well. All that is pointing to heightened expectations that they will hold at their next meeting. Yet bond yields are higher today. Why is that? NAB’s Ken Crompton says yields started rising after a weak 30-year Treasury auction a few hours after the CPI release, which shows there are some nerves about absorbing long duration government debt. There’s also discussion about further weakening of the Yen, UK’s GDP today and further economic indicators for the US later on today/tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E148 · Wed, August 09, 2023
China deflates, gas spikes, US CPI later
Thursday 10th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As expected, latest CPI data from China shows a country suffering the impact of deflation. It raises many questions including, could lower prices help calm inflation elsewhere. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives some perspectives today. Plus, oil and gas prices rise, for different reasons. We examine that. Latest spending data shows Australians continue to spend more, whereas New Zealanders have put a cap on their spending. Does that reinforce the expectations for the respective central banks and what is that doing to the spread of trans-Tasman bond yields? The key metric today, everyone is hanging out for, is the US CPI, out late tonight Australia time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E147 · Tue, August 08, 2023
Chinas slowdown, foreign bank worries, more Aussie resilience
Wednesday 9th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a bad session for banks in the US and Italy. NAB’s Tayor Nugent says there are three things that have sucked the optimism out of markets in the last 24 hours, two relate to banks. Moody’s has downgraded the credit rating for some mid-sized banks in the US, whilst Italy has introduced a 40% windfall tax on its banks. The third hit to sentiment came form China’s trade numbers, which showed a substantial fall in exports and imports. Locally, the NAB Business Survey showed a resilient economy with rising wages, which could challenge the notion that the RBA can hold for longer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E146 · Mon, August 07, 2023
Hope rises during the inflation waiting game.
Tuesday 8th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Stocks are bouncing back in the US after a bad week last week. What’s the reason for this positive speculation? Hopes of a weakening of inflation in the US CPI and PPI numbers later in the week perhaps. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the moves in bond markets, also influenced by inflation speculation, mixed with some hawkish central bank speak and a fair amount of bond issuance this week. NAB’s monthly Business Survey is out today. Skye tells you what she’ll be looking out for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E145 · Sun, August 06, 2023
Payrolls sparks bond reversal
Monday 7th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Last week we did suggest there would be a response to Friday’s US payrolls numbers come what may, and that was certainly the case. Softer numbers and downward revisions saw bond yields retrace their steps on last week’s gains, as investors bet on less in the way of rate hikes. And yet, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, wages growth remains sticky and that will be a concern to the Fed. Canada also saw softer employment data pushing the Canadian dollar down on Friday. The Aussie climbed, but still saw a hefty fall last week. We look at why. Meanwhile a slow start to today – time then to go back and listen to our weekend edition, if you haven’t already. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E144 · Fri, August 04, 2023
Weekend Edition: Australia’s Property Recovery Slows
Friday 4th August 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Figures this week from Core Logic show that house prices in Australia continue to rise – five straight months now – but the speed is slowing. Bounce backs invariably have gone further than the prior downturn, but maybe that won’t happen this time. We’re well above pre-pandemic levels, but are we reaching a ceiling? Phil Dobbie puts that question to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Residential Research for Australia. In particular, can we expect a slower recovery in the investment market, as those searching for yield look elsewhere, where risk may be lower? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E143 · Thu, August 03, 2023
Bond sell-off continues, BoE tightens, jobs numbers tonight
Friday 4th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed higher in this session, with equities left going nowhere, at least until after hours trading with a couple of significant earnings results – Apple and Amazon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the bond sell-off is a conflation of several factors, including this week’s BoJ moves on YCC, the increased net borrowing from the US government and continued resilience is the US economy. There’s also the uncertainty around what to expect from the non-farm payrolls numbers tonight. If they echo the ADP numbers it’ll be an unpleasant surprise for the Fed. But there are further soft-landing signs for the US in data out overnight, including falling labour costs and rising productivity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E142 · Wed, August 02, 2023
Fitch Ignored, ADP questioned, Treasuries peak, BoE could go 50
Thursday 3rd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US ten-year Treasuries hit a fresh high for the year. The downgrading of the US credit rating by Fitch had a little to do with it. The ADP employment numbers also drove yields higher, but NAB’s David de Garis says it is likely the numbers ere a big overstatement, hence yields reversed a little. But there’s also the increase in bond issuances after the massively recalculated US government borrowing this week. All of this is making bonds more attractive than risk assets, with shares well down again. Looking forward, the Bank of England meets today, with the outside chance they’ll lift rates as much as 50 basis points. And the US Services ISM read will be important for those hoping for a no-lading future for the US economy. Plus, why is the Aussie dollar down again so much today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E141 · Tue, August 01, 2023
The Trifecta Pulling the Aussie Dollar Lower
Wednesday 2nd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Aussie dollar has been pulled down by three factors. First, the RBA decision to hold. Although most expected it, there was some pricing for a rise that didn’t materialise. Secondly, the US dollar is higher, on further hopes of a soft landing. US bond yields are also higher because higher than planned government borrowing will see a lot more being issued. Thirdly, China. The Caixin Manufacturing PMIs were soft, and there’s still no clear sign of an effective strategy for mitigating the country’s downturn. Cricket was not one of the reasons. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E140 · Mon, July 31, 2023
Storm in a Japanese Tea Cup. Next stop, RBA.
Tuesday 1st August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Yen is back where it was a week ago, despite all the excitement towards the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it's clear the BoJ didn’t want yields to rise too quickly and intervened to stop a sudden rise to 1%. Bond markets are suddenly less excited, so yields moved little in other parts of the world. The Aussie dollar rose over one percent overnight, along with Chinese equities, as more detail was fleshed out about what would be done to boost consumption in China, although there’s no evidence of any solid fiscal support yet. The RBA is the main focus today, with NAB expecting they will keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E139 · Sun, July 30, 2023
Why markets responded to BoJ’s easing control
Monday 31st July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bonds markets led moves in currency markets on Thursday on news of changes to Japan’s yield curve control. A lot of those changes were retraced on Friday, o the back of softer inflation numbers for Europe and the US. So, what exactly happened? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through how a decision over Japanese bond yields impacted yields on bonds in many other markets, including Australia. And , even though moves were retraced somewhat on Friday on inflation data, will there be a longer lasting impact on bond yields elsewhere as a result of the BoJ policy decision? Listen in for a crash course on yield curve controls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E138 · Thu, July 27, 2023
Whirlwind tour for markets as US GDP surprises
Friday 28th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Currency markets were particularly choppy overnight. NAB’s David de Garis says the moves were driven by the stronger than expected GDP read from the USD, which saw the US dollar much higher, pushing other major currencies – except the Yen – much lower. There was less of a response to the ECB, because there were no surprises. Rates were lifted by 25 basis points and Christine Lagarde spoke again about data dependency. Hard to get excited about that. But equities have taken a solid hit in the US. We can expect more volatility as inflation and GDP data is released for Europe today and early next week, plus rebalancing for the end of Q2. As Dave puts it on today’s podcast, expect things to be whippy! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E137 · Wed, July 26, 2023
Soft landing, slow road back
Thursday 27th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC lifted interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the ECB is expected to do the same tonight. But in each case, it’s unclear where the central banks go next. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA is unlikely to lift rates next week, given the softer than expected Australian CPI print yesterday. But again, it’s unclear where they go from there. There were no strong market moves during or after Jerome Powell’s Fed press conference this morning. He clearly didn’t want to appear too dovish or too hawkish, just data dependent. He did reiterate his personal belief that the US will navigate a soft landing. Listen in for more on what was said. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E136 · Tue, July 25, 2023
A shot in the arm for China boosts the Aussie and commodities
Wednesday 26th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a more substantial build in the Aussie rally yesterday, says NAB’s Ray Attrill which built further overnight. The reason, China, with the Politburo making announcements that suggest they are serious about stepping up macro policy support after the weak Q2 GDP numbers. That’s helped the Aussie and commodities. Meanwhile, the US is languishing in more evidence of a soft-landing, whilst Germany and most of Europe face a tough future. WE don’t have to wait long to see just how that will be reflected in central bank policies, starting with the FOMC first thing tomorrow. Strong earnings results for Alphabet and Microsoft too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E135 · Mon, July 24, 2023
More irrational exuberance?
Tuesday 25th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still expecting that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle, with equity markets continuing to push higher today. But what if the Fed sounds particularly hawkish this week? And what if the plethora of big tech earnings results come in much weaker than expected? It could be a choppy second half to the week. PMIs for Europe came in weaker than expected, and NAB’s Skye Masters says that opens up the question about what the ECB does after this week’s meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E134 · Sun, July 23, 2023
Lifting rates this week? Yes, Yes, No.
Monday 24th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC, the ECB and Bank of Japan all meet this week. No change of direction is expected from the Bank of Japan despite their sticky core CPI number last week. The FOMC and ECB are both expected to lift rates, but does it end there? That’s a question put to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, on a day when we will be festooned with data – the flash PMIs are out for the US, Japan, UK, Euro area, France and Japan. Will they factor into central bank decision making? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E133 · Thu, July 20, 2023
Too many jobs for central banks liking
Friday 21st July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are back to worrying about jobs data, it seems. Aussie yields rose after yesterday’s much stronger than expected employment numbers. The Aussie dollar is higher, even against a rising US dollar, which is also in part down to job concerns after a fall in unemployment claims last week. NAB’s David de Garis says we shouldn’t get too carried away by one week’s report on jobless claims, which are known for their volatility. UK retail numbers are expected to fall again today, but it’s an economy that keeps surprising us. And Japan’s CPI are out, but are unlikely to change the direction of the BoJ anytime soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E132 · Wed, July 19, 2023
UK CPI not really bad news for a change
Thursday 20th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were buoyed a little further on the back of UK CPI numbers. Seemingly, if the UK can see core inflation fall a little further than expected then there’s hope for everyone. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, although the fall wasn’t dramatic, it adds to the global view that inflation has peaked and it could fall rapidly from here. New Zealand’s CPI also fell, but Europe’s final CPI read was revised up a little. The RBA will be watching Australia’s employment numbers today, but Tapas warns that the numbers have been subject to some volatility lately so it should be treated with caution. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E131 · Tue, July 18, 2023
Cooling inflation hope, but does it include NZ and UK?
Wednesday 19th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still excited about the prospect of inflation cooling, with equities pushing higher in the US. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the fall in the headline inflation rate in Canada was also encouraging, but there was a marginal move down in core inflation. There are more inflation numbers today, with CPI for New Zealand and the UK. The UK will be a focus, with its core rate expected to remain stubbornly high. If it does come in lower than expected that will only fuel hopes that we are fighting the final battles for inflation. But a higher reader could see the BoE pull a 50bp hike out of their hat. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E130 · Mon, July 17, 2023
China slows more, could the RBA minutes give the Aussie another hit?
Tuesday 18th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was further evidence of a slowdown in the Chinese economy in yesterday’s GDP print. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reinforces the need for targeted fiscal measures to keep the economy on track for the target 5% annual growth. The Aussie moved down lower on the news and could take a further hit if the RBA minutes suggest a delay before they hike again. There was a sprinkling of US data that reinforced the soft-landing scenario, supported by words from Janet Yellen suggesting a recession won’t happen given the strong labour market, with more people returning to work. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E129 · Sun, July 16, 2023
Confidence with a question mark
Monday 17th JUly 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB After all the confidence displayed last week following the lower-than-expected US inflation numbers, markets changing direction on Friday, with the US dollar rising, bond yields also increasing and equities losing some of their vigour. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says in part this is a response to Friday’s consumer inflation expectations survey, mixed with a bit of natural adjustment after so much mid-week exuberance. If the UK’s CPI number this week also comes in lower than expected then we can expect hopes to be raise higher, but that is much less likely to happy. Instead, lets focus on Aussie employment numbers and China’s GDP read, both of which will influence local sentiment and the direction of the AUD, which clearly wants to avoid hitting 70 US cents just yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E128 · Thu, July 13, 2023
Confidence Grows Further
Friday 14th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s been no backtracking (so far) on the positive response to the US CPI numbers on Wednesday. US equities rose higher on Thursday, bond yields fell further and so did the US dollar. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks us through the market moves, including the rise in the Aussie dollar, despite weaker than expected trade data from China. The UK also had some positive news, with GDP managing to avoid going into the red, just. A quiet end to the week, with Euro area trade data the only notable figures, along with the Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E127 · Wed, July 12, 2023
US inflation cools more than we dared hope
Thursday 13th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was quite a response to the cooling in US inflation last night, pushing US equities to 15-month highs and sending bond yields lower. NAB’s Tapas Strickland delves into the CPI numbers and the market reaction, and what it means for future expectations from the Fed. There’s also discussion about Philip Lowe’s speech yesterday, giving the RBA’s response to suggested reforms for Australia’s central bank. Plus, decisions from the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada. Today’s data highlights include China’s trade balance and the US jobless claims. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E126 · Tue, July 11, 2023
A slow slowdown
Wednesday 12th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Some parts of the world are showing clear signs of an economic slowdown. Like, Europe, where the latest ZEW survey shows a deteriorating outlook. In the UK unemployment rose more than expected yesterday, but so did wages. And, as Ken Crompton explains, yesterday’s NAB Business Survey show’s there’s still resilience in the Australian economy, something that RBA Governor Philip Lowe will no doubt talk about in his lunchtime address today. But all eyes will be on the latest CPI numbers for the US tonight, along with rate decisions by the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E125 · Mon, July 10, 2023
Slow road for China
Tuesday 11th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The speed of China’s economic recovery continues to cause concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the fall in the CNY continues to pull the Aussie dollar lower, even against a weaker US dollar today. US Treasuries have fallen, despite more hawkish talk from Fed speakers overnight, including Loretta Mester saying rates need to be ‘somewhat higher’. Does that sound like more than two hikes? Today the focus will be on the NAB Business Survey locally, and employment data for the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E124 · Sun, July 09, 2023
US jobs relief, inflation data this week
Monday 10th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets will have breathed a collective sigh of relief on Friday when the US non-farm payrolls read came in below consensus, after the worrying upside surprise in the earlier ADP employment numbers. NAB’s Skye Masters says it doesn’t change the path for the Fed, though, particularly as the unemployment rate fell in Friday’s numbers. Elsewhere, Janet Yellen continued to sound hawkish, saying the need was to focus on company profits alongside rising wages. US CPI is the key data release this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E123 · Thu, July 06, 2023
Jobs Frenzy
Friday 7th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Clearly markets are very concerned about jobs data being too-strong after a big rise in the latest ADP numbers and in the employment component of the latest services ISM survey. The JOLTs numbers also showed an increase in job openings. All running contrary to the expectations of the Fed. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it adds to the overarching theme of resilience in the US economy – a word frequently mentioned in the last Fed minutes. The result has been a sharp rise in bond yields today, drops in equities and a significant fall in the Aussie dollar on the back of the rising risk sentiment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E122 · Wed, July 05, 2023
US jobs numbers start today
Thursday 6th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's been a quiet week so far, but that changes today with US Services ISM out later, along with the start of US jobs numbers, including the weekly jobless claims, the JOLTs job openings and the ADP employment release, ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls. Trepidation ahead of those releases might partially account for the sharp increase in 10 year Treasury yields, but NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s also linked to forecasts from JP Morgan that UK rates will push as high as seven percent. 10-year Gilt yields also moved up accordingly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E121 · Tue, July 04, 2023
RBA wait and see
Wednesday 5th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA decided to keep rates on hold yesterday, but there are still expectations of two more hikes even though the commentary from the central bank was more about slowdown concerns that the prospect of inflation worsening or taking longer to come down. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says this should be taken as a sign that they want to move more slowly, rather than this being the endgame. It’s a clearer picture in NZ though, where a much softer Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion has been taken as another indicator that the RBNZ’s job is done. Today, as America returns to work, we get the FOMC minutes and the Caixin services PMI for China. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E120 · Mon, July 03, 2023
Go or no from Lowe?
Tuesday 4th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA meets today. Thank goodness, otherwise it would be a desperately quiet day ahead, with the US on holiday with markets having closed early afternoon on Monday. Data on both sides of the Atlantic pointed to a manufacturing slowdown. The US ISM came in lower than expected and Germany’s PMI was revised down, to a level close to the pandemic low, when workers were in lockdown. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says we knew the US manufacturing sector was experiencing a slowdown and the German number can be attributed to lower demand from China. But what of the RBA? Today’s meeting comes a day after surprisingly strong housing data yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E119 · Sun, July 02, 2023
Softly softly
Monday 3rd July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Consumption data and the core-PCE inflation read both came in softer than expected on Friday, after a spate of stronger than expected economic data for the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s not enough in these numbers for the Fed to change its current hawkish path, and markets moved only marginally lower in their expectations of the terminal rate, but what if it is compounded by weaker jobs data and falling wage growth on Friday? It’s all discussed in today’s podcast, plus Europe’s inflation remains sticky and a new head on the way for the PBoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E118 · Thu, June 29, 2023
Not giving up
Friday 30th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The resilience in the US economy is not giving in. Q1 GDP was revised up, showing 2 percent growth QonQ, whilst consumer spending was up 4.2% on the quarter. NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, Q1 was a while ago now, and everyone knew it was a strong quarter. Yet a fall in jobless claims added to the idea that the Fed has more work cut out to bring down inflation, hence a strong move up in bond yields. Australia too is showing resilience, reinforced by yesterday’s retail numbers. And there was no respite in German inflation, with all eyes on the Euro area CPI number out today, along with the US core-PCE. Both could add to central bank woes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E117 · Wed, June 28, 2023
The fall in the Aussie and the rise of the Hawks
Thursday 29th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big fall in the Aussie and Kiwi dollars yesterday and overnight. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the fall in the Aussie was a combination of the falling CNY and the fall in Australian CPI yesterday, although he cautions into getting too hopeful on the inflation read. At Sintra central bankers stuck with their hawkish sentiment, except Gov Ueda from the BoJ who believed inflation would come down. Concern over Japan’s plight might account for some of the fall in the NZ dollar, although some of it is also being put down in money moving across the Tasman to buy Taylor Swift tickets! CPI for parts of Europe are released today and the Riksbank is the next to lift rates – maybe by as much as 50bps. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E116 · Tue, June 27, 2023
US data too hot for the Fed?
Wednesday 28th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was strong data from the US overnight, with a lift in durable goods orders, housing sales rising and consumer confidence also strong. NAB’s Skye Masters says the Fed won’t take any delight in these numbers so late in their tightening cycle. Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde gave a hawkish speech at Sintra. But maybe the Bank of Canada can take a rest, with core inflation a little lower than expected. Today Australia’s monthly CPI report is out, and the clash of the central bankers on a panel at the close of the Sintra symposium. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E115 · Mon, June 26, 2023
The calm after the storm
Tuesday 27th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We saw no response on the markets to the attempted Russian rebellion, instead all eyes are on Sintra in Portugal, where some of the world’s leading central bankers meet for a chinwag. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we are bound to get something out of it, particularly with Governor Ueda present from the Bank of Japan. Otherwise, a quiet session, although Canada’s inflation number will be important in determining the path for the BoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E114 · Sun, June 25, 2023
Is that enough for now?
Monday 26th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields fell on Friday as PMI reads came in softer than expected. As well as further falls in manufacturing, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, the outperformance of services has weakened, particularly in Europe where the Services PMI in France fell into contraction territory. Does this mean central banks will be less hawkish? The Fed’s Bostic said at the weekend that perhaps the FOMC has had its last rise and all that’s needed now is time for the impact of their policies to kick in. It’s a busy week for inflation numbers, including the monthly Australian figure, ahead of the RBA next week. And the shortest civil war ever. Could it pass by with no market impact whatsoever? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E113 · Thu, June 22, 2023
Panic Stations
Friday 23rd June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of England and the Norges Bank both surprised markets, each raising interest rates by 50 basis points. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the mix of higher UK earnings and stubborn inflation numbers yesterday combined to drive this bigger than expected move. The question is, how much further will they go as the UK fights supply chain and labour supply issues and second-round effects? Certainly Jerome Powell is painting a less volatile path for the US economy, where further rate rises will come slowly, if at all. Yet yields are climbing higher again with all this central bank uncertainty, and oil prices have fallen sharply on an expected decline in demand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E112 · Wed, June 21, 2023
More hikes a pretty good guess
Thursday 22nd June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB At his testimony to the House Finance Committee overnight Jerome Powell suggested two more rate hikes would be a “pretty good guess”. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, markets haven’t even fully priced in one more hike for the remainder of this year, so they clearly don’t believe him. It’s a safer bet that the Bank of England will raise twice, or maybe one big hit today, as they prepare to counter yesterday’s inflation numbers that showed the downward movement in the headline rate has stalled, and the core rate continues to push higher. Not a happy place. And they lost at the cricket. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E111 · Tue, June 20, 2023
Aussie dips, UK braces itself, Powell ready for a grilling
Wednesday 21st June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar has dipped to 67.8 us cents this morning. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its in part because of the China slowdown story, but also the RBA minutes which were more dovish than expected? Does this mean a pause is more likely, or will recent data suggest otherwise? The RBA’s Michelle Bullock gave a speech yesterday indicating the importance of seeing unemployment getting back up to a non-inflationary level, suggesting more emphasis will be placed on jobs data. The UK gets its latest CPI data today ahead of the BoE tomorrow. An upside surprise could mean a 50bp rise by the UK’s central bank. And Jerome POweell spends a day in front of the US House Financial Services Panel later on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E110 · Mon, June 19, 2023
It it ain’t broken, break it
Tuesday 20th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are a couple of days out from the next Bank of England meeting, where a rate hike of at least 25bp is expected, with more to come – but could it be 50? So, is there a danger of doing too much? Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters whether the aggressive signalling from central banks is intended to modify behaviour without expecting to go quite as far as they are suggesting? The mood overnight was subdued, wit the US on holiday, but impacted a little by more cautious expectations for the Chinese recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E109 · Sun, June 18, 2023
All quiet for Juneteenth
Monday 19th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With the US on holiday, very little new data and not much out on Friday, today should be a very quiet day. But, as NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests, that doesn’t mean there won ‘t be fireworks later. Jerome Powell fronts up to two days of testimony, and the Bank of England will lift rates shortly after receiving the latest CPI print. Given a weakening US dollar could we see further strength in the Aussie, plus a brief discussion about an AFR article this morning suggesting the RBA might be preparing for QT. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E108 · Thu, June 15, 2023
ECB hikes, Aussie jobs a worry for RBA
Friday 16th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB hit expectations with their rate rise overnight, says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Markets have responded to Christine Lagarde’s clear expectation that there will be another rise at the next meeting. So, we have a slowing economy (technically in recession) with a central bank lifting rates. In the US, where the Fed has also signalled one or two more rises, we saw weaker data overnight, raising the question, will they actually have to go that far? Whilst in Australia the tight labour market – made tighter with higher job numbers yesterday – adds to the challenge for the RBA. And in China, the slowdown is set to promote more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Could that help push the Aussie dollar back into the seventies? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E107 · Wed, June 14, 2023
Unanimous uncertainty
Thursday 15th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Few will have been surprised by the decision of the FOMC to pause interest rates, after 10 successive hikes. But they have also signalled that rates could rise as much as 50 basis points, with one member wanting to see rates go over 6 percent. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks to Phil about the decision and take-outs from the press conference that followed. One thing is clear, although the pause was a unanimous decision the dot plots show the board members have wildly different expectations of where to go from here. The ECB is not ready to pause yet. And the next move by the RBA will be to some extent impacted by today’s employment numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E106 · Tue, June 13, 2023
Inflation in US under control, UK has problems
Wednesday 14th JUne 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The CPI numbers from the US yesterday showed core inflation is roughly in-line with expectations, raising hopes that the FOMC will pause rates at their meeting on Thursday. Shares are higher in anticipation. It’s a different story in the UK tough, where a tight labour market continues to cause problems. Yesterday’s employment data saw unemployment fall, whilst wages increased further. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says two-year yields in the UK shot above the level reached during the brief Liz Truss premiership, when the BoE had to step in to protect pension funds. Somewhere in between, sits Australia, where yesterday’s NAB Business Survey with clear signs of a slowing economy. But, of course, that’s good for controlling inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E105 · Mon, June 12, 2023
To pause, raise or skip – the Fed’s dilemma
Tuesday 13th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a busy week ahead, with the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan all meeting, and not a clear picture of what any will do in terms of rate rises. The Fed’s decision might be partially impacted by US CPI numbers out today. NAB’s David de Garis says there is talk of a skip, rather than a pause. In other words, one meeting missed so economic indicators can play catch-up before the Fed returns on its upwards rate path. Meanwhile, there seems to be an increasing amount of softer data, suggesting slowdowns are starting to occur. It’ll be interesting to see if UK jobs numbers fall back because, despite concerns about UK growth, employment numbers have been holding up. Is tis the day they turn? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E104 · Thu, June 08, 2023
Jobless claims help cool things a little
Friday 9th JUne 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar has fallen a fair bit, with bond yields down and equities boosted, following a higher than expected jobless claims number in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the markets are reversing some of the early responses to the double shock of rate rises by the RBA and the Bank of Canada. Clearly, the job claims number was used as an excuse to show an economy slowing. But is it an over-reaction? It is if other markets show an equal degree of economic slowdown, which arguably, Europe has done by recording a technical recession in the latest GDP revision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E103 · Wed, June 07, 2023
Canadian Copycats
Thursday 8th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Hot on the heels of the RBA, the Bank of Canada also lifted interest rates yesterday against market expectations. JB Were’s Sally Auld says markets are having to adjust to the new reality, that central banks aren’t done yet. That’s certainly been reflected in bond yields, rising sharply in the US, Canada and Europe. Philip Lowe yesterday did nothing to talk down the likelihood of another rise, pointing to rising wages against falling productivity as a problem that has to be overcome. China’s trade data has shown a big fall in exports, which has seen the CNY down against the US dollar, which Sally says challenges any potential rise in the Aussie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E102 · Tue, June 06, 2023
Yes they did
Wednesday 7th JUne 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA lifted interest rates yesterday, against the prevalent market expectation. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was always a question of “when and not if”, but now there are expectations of at least one follow-up hike at some point this year. The reason, obviously is the central bank’s concerns over persistently high inflation, which OECD numbers yesterday showed was a persistent theme across the developed world. So, the questions ofr today – what will Philip Lowe say at his speech (with Q&A session) in Sydney this morning, and what will the Bank of Canada do later. Their decision is also finely balanced. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E101 · Mon, June 05, 2023
Will they or won’t they?
Tuesday 6th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's a line-ball call, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, as to whether the RBA will lift rates or not today. Markets have priced in a follow-up to the May rise, the question is whether it happens today or in a subsequent meeting. We look at the scenarios on today’s podcast. Plus, a weaker services sector in the US. Does that change expectations for the Fed? And oil responds to the OPEC+ cuts by Saudi Arabia, but the gains don’t last long. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E100 · Sun, June 04, 2023
Oil cuts, wage rises and rate hikes
Monday 5th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With debt ceiling concerns taken away, its back to worrying about inflation and wondering how far central banks will push. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s still likely thew RBA will pause tomorrow, but a higher-than-expected rise in award wages in Australia on Friday have increased the chance that there will be a hike as soon as tomorrow. The Bank of Canada faces the same dilemma, hike again or hold and see? Oil is expected to rise today after the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend, when Saudi Arabia volunteered a million barrels a day cut in production. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E99 · Thu, June 01, 2023
Aussie bounce as debt bills sails through
Friday 2nd June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's surprising that the markets have reacted so sharply to the passage of the debt ceiling bill. NAB’s David de Garis says there was always an outside chance something would go awry, but it’s already passed through the House and should clear the Senate today. Now the focus is on jobs in the US, with non-farm payrolls tonight. Wage pressure will be a significant focus, whilst at home the consequences of the Fair Work Commission’s award wage decision will be an important factor in determining the rate of inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E98 · Wed, May 31, 2023
Aussie low on China worries, European inflation eases
Thursday 1st June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar has fallen further on the back of weaker than expected PMI data from China. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it adds to the view that the post-COID recovery is losing momentum. Australia was also hit with higher-than-expected inflation numbers yesterday, which has added to the expectations for a quarter percent rate rise by the RBA next week. European inflation reported so far has largely shown the worst might be over, but we get the Euro areas CPI figure today. If the US Fed is looking for an easing labour market there is little sign of it today, with job openings up and the Beige book reporting companies continuing to find it difficult to recruit people. There is plenty more US jobs data to come this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E97 · Tue, May 30, 2023
Lowe in the hotseat, McCarthy fights his corner
Wednesday 31st May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Once it’s over the hurdle of the US House Rules Committee, which is happening right now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the feeling is that will pass easily and sets the scene for the vote in the House tomorrow. But many of the market moves are more to do with concerns of an economic downturn, as central banks push harder. That will certainly be the tone of questions RBA Governor Philip Lowe faces when he is in front of the Senate Economics Committee this morning. We also get Australian inflation data today, and numbers for France, Germany and Italy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E96 · Mon, May 29, 2023
The nervous period
Tuesday 30th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The timetable to sign off the agreement to raise the US debt ceiling is very tight. Does it matter if it’s a day or two late? "Not really", says NAB’s Tapas Strickland in today’s podcast, although it might make the markets nervous for a while. A bigger question is what happens beyond that, as the administration plays catch-up on the issuance of Treasury Bills. Also today, we look at the impact of the Fair Work Commission’s decision on minimum and award wages. At what point does the increase become problematic for the RBA? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E95 · Sun, May 28, 2023
It's a deal!
Monday 29th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Democrats and Republicans reckon they have struck a deal over the US debt ceiling, which involves no growth in non-military government spending next year. The deal, could be voted on as soon as Wednesday, just in the nick of time, although as NAB’s Taylor Nugent pints out, Janet Yellen has revised the date for when the money runs out to June 6th. It’s not a done deal, of course, but we started to see early optimism reflected in markets in Friday and there’s no reason why that wouldn’t continue today, except the US and UK markets are largely closed for public holidays. Friday also showed resilience in US inflation and consumption, which has added to the likelihood of a Fed rate rise next month. Non-farm payrolls on Friday will be a key release for that too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E94 · Thu, May 25, 2023
Chip Rally vs Debt Worries
Friday 26th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is still no resolution on the US debt ceiling. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about where markets go from here. Right now, it doesn’t seem to be worrying US equity markets, which have jumped on the forecasts from NVIDIA of am AI-led recovery in chip demands, pushing the company close to a one-billion-dollar valuation. Economc data overnight has shown an upside in the US, but a deterioration in Europe, with Germany having been in a recession for the last two quarters. Still, central banks are talking up the need to do more. Today Australian and UK retail numbers and more measures of inflation, the US PCE deflator and the Tokyo CPI print, which could be an uncomfortable read for the Bank of Japan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E93 · Wed, May 24, 2023
Division, wherever you look
Thursday 25th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB McCarthy and Biden finished their four hour talks on Wednesday with no resolution on the debt ceiling. Their division over spending continues to concern markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill looks at the market response, with a deal needed by the end of the week to allow time for the legislative process to run its course. There’s division within the FOMC too, evidenced by the latest minutes. There;’s also been a couple of surprises in the last 24 hours – the RBNZ indication that they may have stopped lifted rates, and the UK’s worrying inflation numbers now raising the possibility of a 50bp rate hike next time by the Bank of England. And rate hikes from the RBA might still have a way to go after Philip Lowe’s meeting with legislators. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E92 · Tue, May 23, 2023
Last Chance Saloon
Monday 24th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s still no resolution on the USD Debt Ceiling. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says expectations are that a deal will be found in time, but markets are getting nervous, with falls in equities across the board (except energy). Inflation concerns continue to mount up, with the latest PMI data in the US and Europe showing that, in general, the service sector continues to expand whilst manufacturing falls further. The UK’s headline inflation rate will fall markedly, but it’s the core number that counts. And we see what the RBNZ is planning to attack persistent inflation – a 25bp is expected but there is an outside chance they will go harder today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E91 · Mon, May 22, 2023
Divided they stand
Tuesday 23rd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If you look at Kevin McCarthy’s twitter feed you’d assume he is taking a very defiant stand against the Biden administration when it comes to movement on the US debt ceiling. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says that reflects the stakeholders he has to pacify, and you’d hope he’d be more conciliatory in the negotiations underway. But they’ll have to be quick if they want to reach a resolution and pass any necessary legislation before the default, yet markets remain clam, presumably assuming a compromise will be reached in the nick of time. Meanwhile the Fed remains divided too, although the general direction of travel seems to be more, not less, hikes. The same applies for the RBNMZ, with tomorrow’s expected rise unlikely to be the last. Today global PMIs will be keenly watched. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E90 · Sun, May 21, 2023
Buckle Up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride
Monday 22nd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are distinctly uneasy at the start of the week, as the Republicans and Democrats are sticking to their entrenched position in US debt ceiling talks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a sharp contrast to the upbeat tone on Thursday, so we can expect a large amount of volatility unless they pull something out of the hat on Monday. Meanwhile Jerome Powell hinted over the weekend that the Fed could pause in June, despite the rhetoric from other board members last week. Whilst Christine Lagarde says the ECB needs to buckle up’ to fight inflation. Also today, what impact in inflation and the RBAS will a rise in Australian minimum wages that’s in-line with inflation? Plus, the PBOC’s concerns about currency fluctuation, what to expect from the RBNZ this week and is Japan the new un-China? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E89 · Thu, May 18, 2023
Taking McCarthy at his word
Friday 19th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are buoyed this morning by comments from US Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that he sees a path towards a deal with the Democrats over the US debt ceiling. That’s pushed equities and bond yields higher. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it would be premature to suggest that yesterday’s weaker employment numbers would impact the path of future hikes from the RBA, just as the latest data from the US is too choppy to draw any conclusions on what it means for the Fed. But it seems the increased spending by the NZ government in yesterday’s budget could contribute to an extra rate hike by the RBNZ. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E88 · Wed, May 17, 2023
Debt deal is doable
Thursday 18th may 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have chosen to be optimistic over the US debt ceiling today, with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, saying a compromise was “doable”, maybe as soon as this week. And, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, Joe Biden is also positive, and the negotiating team has been reduced in size to nut out a solution. Japan’s GDP surprised on the upside yesterday and Australian wage growth came in as expected, but there’s still potential for them to rise further. Australia’s employment numbers are out this morning. All are discussed in today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E87 · Tue, May 16, 2023
RBA eyes up productivity and wages
Wednesday 17th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a finely balanced decision by the RBA to lift rates at the last meeting, with the bank now saying they are focusing on productivity and wages. As JBWere’s Sally Auld discusses today, they don’t have to wait long for the next set of quarterly wages data out today – but the next productivity data comes a day after their next meeting. So, will they pause? We talk through a lot of data releases today, with the tone a little downbeat, pushing equities lower. And uncertainty grows about the debt ceiling, with the clock ticking and no sign of a resolution. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E86 · Mon, May 15, 2023
Dancing on the Ceiling
Tuesday 16th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is the US careering towards a debt default? There’s only a couple of weeks until the point at which Janet Yellen has warned the US government could run out of money. But Biden and McCarthy are talking, so there is hope of a resolution. But NAB’s Skye Masters says its drawing a long bow to assume the slight increase in confidence in markets today is being driven by hopes on those talks. It was simply a session light on significant data to drive markets in any particular direction. It’s a different picture in the next 24 hours though, with a swathe of data, and growing uncertainty as each day passes without a debt ceiling resolution. In amongst the releases today, the RBA minutes, which will help explain the surprise decision to lift rates at the last meeting, with NAB now forecasting one more hike this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E85 · Sun, May 14, 2023
A nervous overreaction?
Monday 15th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was further nervousness in the markets at the end of last week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a chunk of it came from the University of Michigan’s survey, which saw consumers raising the level they expected inflation to be at in five years’ time. It seemed an oversized response to a modest increase, but it is a statistic that the Fed likes to keep an eye on. The response could well be overturned by events this week, which include US retail sales, Canada’s CPI, UK labour market data and Australia’s wage price index and employment numbers. A busy week ahead, but a quiet start today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E84 · Thu, May 11, 2023
BoE hikes against softer global outlook
Friday 12th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The BoE has raised rates (not a unanimous decision), but they are also expecting a bit more growth in the economy. We’ll see how that’s tracking with UK GDP numbers out today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this could be the last one from the BoE, but it really depends on the UK inflation number later in the month. Meanwhile, further signs of softness in the US – where jobless claims rose more than expected – and China, where loans are well below expectations. Banks continue to add to the uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E83 · Wed, May 10, 2023
As expected, not worse than expected
Thursday 11th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI has come in pretty much as expected, and yet we’ve seen falls in bond yields and increased talk of a Fed pause and rate cuts later in the year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was no doubt relief that the number didn’t go up. We’re heading in the right direction, albeit at a glacial pace. It’ll be a different story for the BoE this evening, with a 25bp rise expected, but how many more to follow? The ECB is also continuing its campaign of hawkish talk, with 4 more speakers in the next 24 hours. With a Fed on hold and the BoE and ECB still lifting rates, what does this do to the Aussie dollar? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E82 · Tue, May 09, 2023
ECB sends clear message, with lots of slides
Wednesday 10th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Australia federal budget last night didn’t contain any surprises. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, it’s clear that Australia’s fiscal position is better than most, but that doesn’t mean inflation is under control. In the US the fiscal position is a particular worry as the debt ceiling could be reached as soon as June 1st and Biden and McCarty are going into talks intent on not budging their positions. Meanwhile, the ECB has been in full-hawk mode, talking up the expectations for rate hikes. Today rings us the most important number of the week – US inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E81 · Mon, May 08, 2023
NAB Business Survey offers a glimmer of hope
Tuesday 9th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields continued to rise yesterday and overnight as markets seem to accept a more for longer approach from central banks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Business Survey yesterday showed that there was a fall in retail prices and final product prices, suggesting, perhaps, that inflation was coming under control. In the US the Senior Loan Officers survey in the US showed that lending conditions were tightening, with am impact on business credit demand. Whilst industrial production in Germany fell further in March, driven down by the automotive sector. It’ll be interesting to see how weak data like these impacts on the attitudes of the ECB, with Lane, Vasle and Rehn all talking over the next day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E80 · Sun, May 07, 2023
Labour market tightness vs the credit crunch
Monday 8th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A surprise increase in US jobs on Friday but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it probably won’t have scuppered expectations for a pause by the FOMC, unless there’s an unpleasant surprise in US inflation numbers this week. The question is, how much of the work of the Fed will now be done by the credit crunch? That makes today’s US Senior Loan Officers Survey particularly important. Also on today’s podcast, a look ahead to the BoE and a look back at Friday’s Statement of Monetary Policy from the RBA and why Aussie home loan commitments have picked up so much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E79 · Thu, May 04, 2023
ECB raises rates, markets worried
Friday 5th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB has lifted rates by 25 basis points and the expectation that there is more to come. NAB’s David de Garis said Christine Lagarde did raise concerns about credit tightening, but there was no suggestion of how that would change the rate path for the bank. Meanwhile, PacWest Bancorp looks likely to be the next US bank to disappear, with questions over how many other regional banks will follow. That uncertainty has led to a fourth day of falls in US shares. US payrolls are the main focus tonight, after data yesterday showed jobs are holding up, with wages still growing, and productivity falling. The Fed, obviously, wants to see none of those things. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E78 · Wed, May 03, 2023
Fed up, then what?
Wednesday 4th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC has met, lifted rates and there are suggestions of a pause. NAB’s Gavin Friend says its all down the removal of one the line from the policy statement: “some additional policy increases might be appropriate”. With that gone there was an immediate assumption that the Fed will stop lifting rates, but Jerome Powell seemed a lot less dovish in the press conference that followed. Listen in for a rundown of the decision and the takeouts from what followed. Next, it’s the ECB, which is also expected to lift rates by 25 basis points. But how much of the path is now determined by bank credit tightening, rather than traditional economic data like inflation and jobs? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E77 · Tue, May 02, 2023
Jolts from jobs, banks and the RBA
Wednesday 3rd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA’s decision to lift rates seems to have kicked off a turbulent period on global markets. The US kicked off with big drops in oil prices, plunging share prices and rising bond yields. Not because eof the RBA. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through the uncertainty in the US on the eve of the FOMC meeting, with more bank worries and falling US job openings – with fewer quits and more layoffs. The ECB meeting isn’t far behind. We digest the latest inflation numbers for the Eurozone. And on the RBA, was that the last rise, or has it laid the path for more? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E76 · Mon, May 01, 2023
One bank rescued, one central bank on hold
Tuesday 2nd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets seemed unperturbed by the demise of another US commercial bank. NAB’s Skye Masters says the mood in bond markets is risk positive, perhaps because the FDIOC stepped in and negotiated a sale to JP Morgan. Markets were also influenced by the US ISM manufacturing read, which showed a rise in prices and employment. The ECB will be interested in the Euro area core inflation read today, whilst the RBA will almost certainly keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E75 · Sun, April 30, 2023
A big week for central banks as US inflation hangs on
Monday 1st May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a big week for central banks, with the ECB and FOMC expected to lift rates. The US employment cost index and PCI deflator on Friday showed that prices in the US are taking a while to moderate. In Europe GDP numbers showed the economy is starting to slow, but the market still has a rate rise priced in. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still expected to keep rates on hold tomorrow. Over the weekend China reported weaker than expected manufacturing numbers, and on Friday the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold and a continued dedication to yield curve control, even as Tokyo’s inflation numbers jumped higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S1 E74 · Thu, April 27, 2023
US economy is slowing, but consumers are still spending, labour market is still tight
Friday 28th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the latest GDP numbers from the US, reinforcing signs that the economy is slowing. But markets preferred to focus on the PCE read, showing prices are still rising, and the latest jobless claims which demonstrate how the labour market is easing at a glacial speed. Meanwhile equities are pushing higher helped by the latest earnings results, with Intel and Amazon the latest to report strong results. The focus today will be on how European GDP compares to the US slowdown, and the detail of the US employment cost index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S1 E73 · Wed, April 26, 2023
Markets pulled between high tech and bank lows
Thursday 27th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings (Meta is the latest on that front) and financials (and the rest) hit by banking uncertainty and recession fears. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s no evidence of systemic risk in the banking sector, but tightening credit conditions will weigh on the broader economy. Hence, big falls in oil today, which was one of two factors weighing on the Aussie dollar. The other, of course, is the weaker than expected inflation read for Australia yesterday. Could a more dovish RBA against a hawkish Fed see the Aussie fall further? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S1 E72 · Tue, April 25, 2023
Back to worrying about banks
Wednesday 26th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets took a hit after yesterday’s earnings results from First Republic Bank. JBWere’s Sally Auld says most of the movement overnight can be put down to the uncertainty this has created. The expectation that bank uncertainty had disappeared after just a few days was clearly a little optimistic. Softer economic data from the US overnight also dampened enthusiasm. But Microsoft and Alphabet shares kicked higher in after-hours trade, thanks to higher-than-expected earnings results. Today the focus is on Australia’s inflation numbers and what it means for the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E71 · Sun, April 23, 2023
Should we forget about recession?
Monday 24th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Should we ignore the technical indicators? A recession seems even less likely after stronger than expected PMIs for the US and Europe on Friday. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland how central banks will respond to this, particularly if we see resilient employment costs and strong US and European GDP numbers this week. Locally, Australia’s inflation will attract the most attention. US earnings season is in full swing too, with some big tech names reporting tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E70 · Thu, April 20, 2023
Looking on the soft side
Friday 21st April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s definitely a more sombre mood this morning, with equities falling in the US and Europe. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much is this down to Tesla’s price cutting, and the need for a squeeze in margins to maintain demand. Yields are also down, with softer employment, manufacturing an housing data from the US. Couple that with falling inflation in New Zealand and the question has to be asked, at least for today, how far do central banks really need to go? We’ll get an update on jJust how soft global economies are today with PMIs for the US, Europe and the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E69 · Wed, April 19, 2023
New RBA structure. BOE’s double digit problem.
Thursday 20th April 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK’s inflation numbers were an unwelcome surprise yesterday, with the headline rate remaining in double digits, at 10.1%. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are now expectations for three more hikes from the Bank of England, which has seen bond yields rising sharply. Other asset classes have seen very little movement, with the Fed’s Beige book describing a US economy that is, at best, stagnant. The proposed new structure of the RBA will be a focus today – we discuss the proposal in today’s podcast – along with NZ CPI out this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E68 · Tue, April 18, 2023
China’s latent shopping frenzy
Wednesday 19th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Freedom has turned into a shopping frenzy in China, but it’s not reflected in capex or industrial production. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this retail growth will be short lived and, if not, could it be inflationary? Meanwhile, inflation remains stubborn in Canada, employment numbers rise in the UK and the RBA minutes yesterday suggest a rate rise could still be in play next week. Central banks plan to do a lot more it seems. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E67 · Mon, April 17, 2023
A night of not much
Tuesday 18th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a quiet session overnight with US equities struggling to get into the green until the very last gasp and bond yields pushing higher. NAB’s David de Garis says there will have been some encouragement from the Empire Manufacturing Index which moved from minus 24.6 to a positive 10.8, driven by strong forward orders. But there’s a lot of volatility in regional manufacturing reports, so will it stick? Today the RBA releases minutes of the last meeting and there’s a swathe of China data to absorb. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E66 · Sun, April 16, 2023
Divided we stand, sideways we move
Monday 17th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There remains some confusion over how far and fast central banks will move, as banking concerns subside. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses today, the Fed is sending very mixed messages, with Christopher Waller suggesting the fight against inflation has only seen sideways moves so far, whilst Raphael Bostic seems happy to pause after one more hike. Yet last week Golsbee and Daly were wondering whether any further hikes were needed at all. Locally, NZ inflation this week will be one highlight, and could be a useful guide for the direction of prices in Australia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E65 · Thu, April 13, 2023
RBA’s dilemma - more working, less job ads
Friday 14th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday we saw a surprise increase in the number of Australians working last month. So, does that mean a greater likelihood of more hikes form the RBA? Certainly a higher Aussie dollar and rising bond yields are suggesting that. It’s a question put to NAB’s David de Garis. There’s also discussion about the UK’s stagnant outlook, with GDP flatlining and mortgage defaults rising. Hopes of easing inflation I the US were helped by a fall in producer prices. Maybe increased exports from China will help too. Perhaps a weakening in consumer demand through today’s US retail sales will add to that picture. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E64 · Wed, April 12, 2023
US inflation is sticky
Thursday 13th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The headline rate for US inflation fell and for a moment bond yield showed significant falls. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, the core readings were less hopeful. It wasn’t long after the release that the Fed’s Thomas Barkin reiterated the need to do more to get inflation down to 2%. But there was some concern amongst the Fed’s ranks at the last FOMC meeting as credit conditions worsened. Could inflation come down by itself? The Bank of Canada is happy to sit it out, keeping rates on hold yesterday and still expecting to reach their 2% target next year. Today the focus is on Australian employment numbers and, perhaps, the weekly jobless claims in the US, which went down last time, suggesting more people in work. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E63 · Tue, April 11, 2023
On top of the CPI hill
Wednesday 12th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There will be a lot of focus on the US CPI number tonight, with an expected fall in the headline rate. There could be quite a market response if there are signs that inflation hasn’t peaked. NAB’s Skye asters believes markets still have unrealistically high expectations of rate cuts later in the year, echoing comments that Jerome Powell gave at the last FOMC press conference. We get top read the full minutes of that meeting later today. This morning we also look into yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Australia’s strong consumer confidence read, which was helped by the RBA’s ‘hold’ decision, again based on the assumption that inflation has peaked. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E62 · Mon, April 10, 2023
Back and a little confused
Tuesday 11th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the start of a what could be a volatile short week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it seems markets have taken the non-farm payrolls at face value, seeing no dramatic fall in jobs as a sign that the Fed will stick with its hawkish tilt. But the weekly jobless claims have been revised upwards and there’s other evidence that job layoffs are increasing. As markets adjust to the jobs news, there’s also the anticipation of this week’s US inflation read, and a few major bank earnings results this week too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E61 · Wed, April 05, 2023
RBNZ takes large mallet from the toolkit
Thursday 6th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t anything subtle about the RBNZ rate move yesterday, so why the sharp contrast with the action – or lack of it- taken by the RBA this week. NAB’s David de Garis looks at potential reasons, and helps to dissect Philip Lowe’s Press Club lunch speech yesterday. Also, more soft data from the US and further signs that non-farm payrolls on Friday could show a move south, easing pressure on the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E60 · Tue, April 04, 2023
Guilty as charged
Wednesday 5th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We’re not afraid to admit we got it wrong on the RBA, who kept rates on hold yesterday. Unlike a certain US President we are prepared to plead guilty as charged. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains why the bank didn’t move and looks ahead to the next meeting and beyond. Meanwhile, we’re confident the RBNZ will lift rates today. Also today, further signs of softening in the US, including a fall in job openings, with more US employment data out later tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E59 · Mon, April 03, 2023
Weaker US manufacturing data offsets oil inflation concerns
Tuesday 4th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil prices are up on the back of the OPEC+ cuts announced yesterday. That pushed bond yields a little higher. JB Were’s Sally Auld days rising prices could be problematic for central banks if they keep rising, but there current level is unlikely to have much impact. In fact, yields starting falling as US manufacturing data signified a slowdown in the sector, with a fall in the employment index suggesting that maybe non-farm payrolls on Friday will show an easing in the jobs market and help ease future inflation pressures. The key event today of course, is the RBA meeting, where NAB is still forecasting a 25 bp rise. If it doesn’t happen today, it’ll happen next month is the expectation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E58 · Sun, April 02, 2023
OPEC happy to spoil the party
Monday 3rd April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation is showing signs of slowing in the US, with a lower than expected Core PCE deflator read on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this was the primary reason for a fall in bond yields on Friday. But models pointing to lower headline inflation driven by lower energy costs will be in need of a revision today, as OPEC+ announce a daily 1.2 million barrel cut in oil production from next month. The announcement was unexpected. It’ll add pressure to European economies, where core inflation rose slightly last month. On todays podcast we look ahead to the RBA and RBNZ this week, and the consequences of the Aston by-election result over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E57 · Thu, March 30, 2023
US banking on a slowdown. NAB’s new call on the RBA
Friday 31st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US banking stocks took a hit overnight as central bankers warned of a credit crunch and Joe Biden called for reforms to regulations. Other shares rose though, even though weekly job numbers showed continued labour market tightness. In Australia job vacancies have fallen a little and NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about how the bank has revised its call on the rate path for the RBA. Today the focus will be on inflation in Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E56 · Wed, March 29, 2023
Aussie inflation falls further. Job done for the RBA?
Thursday 30th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were calm overnight, but NAB’s David de Garis says that doesn’t translate to confidence. The market is still wondering what is round the corner, but he points out that a lot of the concern has been contained within the US. Meanwhile inflation in Australia came in lower than expected yesterday. Does that mean the job is done for the RBA? For the rest of the week inflation numbers will garner the most attention, starting with Germany and Spain today, and the US and the Eurozone tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E55 · Tue, March 28, 2023
Not much ado about nothing much
Wednesday 29th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t much happening yesterday and overnight, so markets were relatively calm. The US senate banking committee quizzed the regulator over banking collapses and perhaps reassured markets that the future looked more peaceful. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says we can’t assume nothing else will break as capital is repriced with rising rates. Australian inflation data is released today after a small positive move up in retail sales in February. It’s the last piece of data to feed into the RBA decision next week, with the evidence leaning to a lift either next week or next month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E54 · Mon, March 27, 2023
Quietly confident, for now
Tuesday 28th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Banking fears have subsided somewhat overnight, with a buyer found for Silicon Valley Bank and less concern, for whatever reason, over Deutsche Bank. Hence, equities have risen and so have bond yields, as focus returns on how far central banks will go. Quite a bit further if you listen to the likes of Isabel Schnabel at the ECB or Andrew Bailey at the BoE. But markets are still pricing in cuts later this year. NAB's Ray Attrill talks through why the discrepancy between central banks and markets and makes a bold prediction on what the RBA will do next week. Today’s retail numbers and inflation later in the week could still influence the outcome, of course. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E53 · Sun, March 26, 2023
No Deutsche Courage
Monday 27th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Uncertainty returned to markets on Friday. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says concerns over Deutsche Bank was the source of volatility for equity markets in Europe and in early trade in the US. It’s not clear whether there is anything to be concerned about - Olaf Schulz, the German Chancellor, says not. Meanwhile, central banks are determined to continue on their counter-inflationary path of rate hikes, with some I the Fed expecting a few more of them before they are finished. So, what of the RBA? We get the monthly inflation data and retail sales this week, but it seems likely they will raise next week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E52 · Thu, March 23, 2023
Three more hikes in a day
Friday 24th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Three more hikes in a day. Even though we reckoned yesterday that the Bank of England wouldn’t do it, overnight they did lift rates. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there is no hiding from a rising inflation rate, even if it proves to be a temporary blip in a more gradual move down, it’s still very high. He suggests it could serve as a reminder that the RBA also has to keep its eye on the ball. Only significant signs of a weakening economy will change the attitude of central banks, who have separated out their monetary goals from banking pressures. Todays PMIs will give a snapshot of how some of the leading economies are faring. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E51 · Wed, March 22, 2023
Fed hikes, BoE given a nasty inflation surprise
Thursday 23rd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As envisaged, the FOMC meeting has agreed to a 25bp rate hike in the US, with Jerome Powell indicating there is more to come. But, as discussed with NAB’s Gavin Friend, the Fed chair has suggested that it’s possible that credit tightening from banks, after the recent turmoil, will do some of the work for them. Next, it’s the Bank of England. It seemed likely that there would be no move but could that change with a surprise increase in UK inflation announced yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E50 · Tue, March 21, 2023
We’ve got your back
Wednesday 22nd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets seem to have cast off concerns about banking risk contagion. NAB’s Skye Masters says market confidence has been helped by reassurances from Janet Yellen that the US federal government is “resolutely committed” to mitigating financial stability risks. Authorities are also investigating ways to remove the upper cap on deposits covered by FDIC insurance. That’s all helped to boost equities and drive strong increases in bond yields. The question remains, has there been any lasting impact on the speed and destination for central banks? A 25 basis point hike is well-priced for the FOMC tomorrow, but the revised dot-plots will be of more interest. Catch all the news on that in tomorrow morning’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E49 · Mon, March 20, 2023
The Day After
Tuesday 21st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were relatively calm on the first day after the announcement of the Credit Suisse-UBS deal. One risk of contagion was in the AT1 (addition tier one) bond markets, as Credit Suisse wrote their $17 billion value down to zero, leaving bondholders with nothing. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there seems to be some acceptance that this is a Swiss-only story, and AT1 bondholders would count before equities in the pecking order in the case of other banking right downs. So, now, as markets seem to be accepting that the banking crisis is contained, does that mean central banks – like the Fed this week – can push higher on rates? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E48 · Sun, March 19, 2023
A Swiss Deal
Monday 20th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for US$2billion, a fraction of it’s value at Friday’s close. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about the consequences of this arrangement and the ongoing uncertainty in the US regional banking sector. Could this mean we see bond yields falling further and watered down expectations for central bank hikes, including the BoE and Fed this week? How can central banks tread the path between fuelling more banking uncertainty and pursuing their path for controlling inflation? The first central banker to face such difficult questions could be the RBA’s Christopher Kent, first thing today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E47 · Thu, March 16, 2023
Crisis? What crisis?
Friday 17th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst money is being poured in to solve liquidity issues at Credit Suisse, the ECB has been keen to stay on track with a 50bp rate hike yesterday. It’s been suggested that anything less would have been seen as a sign of bigger troubles and spread panic in a nervous market. Hence, bond yields and equities have come bouncing back overnight. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are less sure of a rate hike from the RBA next month, even though Australia reported a strong increase in employment yesterday and an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E46 · Wed, March 15, 2023
Swiss panic
Thursday 16th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Another day, another banking crisis. This time it’s Credit Suisse causing problems, somewhat bigger than SVB, but it’s hard to understand the fundamental reason for the concern, other than blind panic and a bank that has seen massive capital outflows last year. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s unlikely to stop the ECB from pushing ahead with a rate rise later today, but banking uncertainty has certainly switched attitudes in the US on where the Fed is heading, with growing expectations that they will start cutting rates in the second half of the year, possibly up to 100bp before Christmas. The Fed’s job has been made a little easier with softer data overnight, including a flat PPI read for February. Locally, New Zealand’s Q4 GDP is the focus today whilst elsewhere the question is, what happens next? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E45 · Tue, March 14, 2023
Back to Plan A (almost)
Wednesday 15th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is it crisis over. As CPI numbers came out in the US showing the Fed still had more work to do, it seems the focus shifting back onto rate hikes and away from major concerns about bank stability. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it’s not a total retreat. After yesterday’s CPI and last week’s US payrolls there would have been every reason to expect a 50bp hike next week, but markets seem more set on 25bp. Today’s retail numbers will play into that decision. Sally says the RBA is lucky that it’s next meeting is not so imminent, but yesterday’s NAB business survey showed labour costs picking up a little, which is a concern. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E44 · Mon, March 13, 2023
Fed in a tight spot
Tuesday 14th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just after Janet Yellen said there would be no bailout for SVB the US financial regulators stepped in promising that no depositor would be out of pocket. Good news for companies left exposed, but its done little to calm the markets with bond yields falling further and some analysts predicting an end to rises, at least for now, from the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its likely they will push ahead with their fight against inflation, but on a slower path. It’s still possible that the ECB will lift rates by 50bp this week. But what if the US inflation read today comes in stronger than expected? How do markets react then? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E43 · Sun, March 12, 2023
Going for Broke
Monday 13th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The collapse of SVB on Friday created turmoil in the markets. Bond yields fell across the board, but particularly at the front end of the yield curve. Equities were also hit and the US dollar took a hit, with the uncertainty meaning the Aussie didn’t benefit from the fall. So how does the Fed respond to this shock to the system, which has been facilitated in part by rising bond yields. NAB’S Tapas Strickland reckons the Fed will be more cautious with future hikes and a 50bp hike next week is looking less likely. The collapse overtook any interest in Friday’s non-farm payrolls, which showed an upside surprise in employment numbers but a rise in the unemployment rate. The surprise from the Bank of Japan was no surprise, with Kuroda leaving quietly with no change in policy. Meanwhile, the PBoC is sticking with Governor Yi at the helm, but possibly only fore a few months. There’s a bit of uncertainty to be navigated through, it seems. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E42 · Thu, March 09, 2023
Jobs and Japan
Friday 10th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are clearly preparing for a fall in payrolls numbers tonight, with bond yields falling markedly in the US and the dollar notably weaker. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets have been influenced by the weekly jobless claims, which rose a little, and the Challenger jobs report, which showed a high number of layoffs in January and February. They clearly shrugged off the ADP umbers from a day earlier, which came in stronger than expected. Hopes of an end to rising inflation will have been helped by a negative PPI read from China. The Bank of Japan meets today, for the last time for Governor Kuroda. There’s been talk about a last-minute surprise, but could the surprise actually be no surprise at all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E41 · Wed, March 08, 2023
An Ocean Apart
Thursday 9th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a lot of water between where Jerome Powell sees the Fed heading and how Philip Lowe is seeing things from the RBA’s viewpoint. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s been no market retreat from yesterday’s positions, when we saw the US dollar rise, Aussie dollar fall and a divergence in yields, with US treasuries rising and Aussie yields falling. Speeches from Philip Lowe and Jerome Powell have done little to change the mood. Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is on hold, with further rises possible. And US data overnight did nothing to dispel the idea that the labour market there remains tight, suggesting the Fed will stick with the plan to do more, with a rising expectation for a 50bp hike at the next FOMC meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E40 · Tue, March 07, 2023
RBA less hawkish, Powell more so. Big market response.
Wednesday 8th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big market moves overnight thanks to a slightly less hawkish RBA yesterday and a more hawkish sounding Jerome Powell in front of a US senate committee. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still committed to further tightening but raised the potential for a pause in hikes, after yesterday’s 25bp lift. The usual caveat – that it’s all data dependent – still applies. It’s the same for the US of course, with payrolls on Friday and CPI next week two very influential data prints to look out for. Meanwhile Jerome Powell started his appearance overnight by saying “the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.” Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E39 · Mon, March 06, 2023
To Pause or Not to Pause? That is the RBA question.
Tuesday 7th March 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian bond yields fell sharply yesterday ahead of the RBA meeting today. NAB’s Skye Masters says this shows there’s an expectation that the central bank will pause after today’s rate hike and we can expect some repricing in bonds if they instead signal a series of consecutive hikes. The uncertainty around what central banks do next was demonstrated by the ECB overnight, with speakers still divided between hiking, if so by how much, or pausing. As to the latest Fed thinking, Jerome Powell’s testimony tonight (Australia time) will be particularly important. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E38 · Sun, March 05, 2023
A great week for those who like volatility
Monday 6th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As NAB’s Ray Attrill puts it on this morning’s podcast, three central banks, two days of testimony from Jerome Powell,. Topped off by US payrolls numbers – what’s not to like. Provided you thrive on volatility, of course, because any of those events has the power to change the direction of markets. They finished last week with quiet optimism, with equities pushing higher and bond yields falling. We look at why that might be and suggest one surprise this week could come from the Bank of Japan, the last meeting of Governor Kuroda who might be prepared to spring a surprise, particularly as inflation keeps rising. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E37 · Thu, March 02, 2023
US yields pushing well above 4 percent
Friday 3rd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Having pushed above 4 percent, US 10 year Treasury yields lurched higher still overnight, with yields up in Europe too and a sharper rise in Australian 10 year yields. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are responding to the revised Q4 numbers of US labour costs and productivity. Meanwhile European inflation was higher than expected yet it curiously wasn’t reflected in equities overnight. US Services ISM will be the key number to watch today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E36 · Wed, March 01, 2023
China bouncing back, BoE holding back, Treasuries kick higher
Thursday 2nd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a session of mixed news overnight. US 10 year treasury yields have hit 4 percent as expectations continue to mount for higher rates for longer. In China the PMIs came in higher than expected. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we are seeing the same picture we saw in western economies as they came out of lockdown, with a faster bounce back than anticipated. In Australia the GDP data showed a softening of demand, but yields reacted to a rise in the monthly CPI number. In the UK the central bank governor suggested there was not necessarily any need to raise rates, but the mood is very different in Europe with the region’s inflation number expected to kick higher today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E35 · Tue, February 28, 2023
Europe’s Inflation Worries
Wednesday 1st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a growing concern that inflation is creeping back into Europe. That’s the case in France and Spain, with Germany’s CPI numbers out today and the Euro Area inflation print tomorrow. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are already pricing in a higher terminal rate, with the ECB’s Philip Lane talking up more rate hikes for longer. So how far will they go? Meanwhile, the Canadian economy has ground to a halt, and NAB has downgraded its forecast for Australian GDP today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E34 · Mon, February 27, 2023
EU and UK shake on it
Tuesday 28th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The pound rose sharply higher today on the news that a deal had been struck with the EU over the problems of the UK’s internal trade with Northern Ireland. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets have responded to the pragmatism of Rishi Sunak and the hope that it signals the start of a better future for UK-EU trade down the track. Meanwhile, US equities have bounced back today, even though expectations of a higher Fed terminal rate have settled in to place. Is it those buying the dip or the return of the soft-landing brigade? The drip-feed of EU inflation data will be the focus today, ahead of the full number tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E33 · Sun, February 26, 2023
US inflation rebound. What now?
Monday 27th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were shaken on Friday when the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator – showed an unexpected bounce back. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was one of a series of strong numbers at the end of last week, and talks through the implications for the Fed, with some voting members talking of the need to be even more than previously signalled. The news has pushed bond yields higher, particularly at the front end of the curve. Meanwhile equity investors are being forced to question their optimism. And the damage is not restricted to the US with investors wondering whether this week’s European inflation read will tell a similar story. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E32 · Thu, February 23, 2023
Jobs and prices – bad news for the Fed
Friday 24th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US GDP has been revised down slightly for Q4. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its been driven by lower than expected consumption numbers. The Fed will also be concerned by the quarterly GDP deflator, which has shown prices rising more than anticipated. Eyes will be on the January numbers for prices and consumption out tonight. To add to the US woes, jobless claims fell last week adding to a string of data suggesting the tightness in the labour market is taking a long time to ease. We’re a week away from non-farm payrolls. Remember the impact last time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E31 · Wed, February 22, 2023
Wages Day
Thursday 23rd February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s not a lot that’s new on the FOMC minutes out this morning, according to NAB’s David de Garis. Several members had talked of higher rate rises, but there wasn’t much too much for investors to change the expected path of hikes this year. But it might be a different story for the RBA with Australian wage inflation lower than expected yesterday. Meanwhile, wages are rising in Japan, higher than the rate of inflation adding extra pressure on the BoJ. And the UK government might increase the rate of public sector pay to try and break the strike deadlock the country is facing. It’s been a wage where wages have been front and centre. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E30 · Tue, February 21, 2023
Resilience and hope drives bond yields higher
Wednesday 22nd February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The latest PMI data has shown more resilience in the global economy, with service sector reads significantly exceeding expectations in Europe, the UK and the United States. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about how this will impact central bank decisions, with bond yields rising on these latest findings. Also, the latest inflation numbers from Canada, fighting talk from Putin and Biden, and could the UK be on the brink of a meaningful Northern Ireland border solution? Ahead today Australian wages data and the RBNZ rate decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E29 · Mon, February 20, 2023
US back to work with the PMIs
Tuesday 21st February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With the US equity and bond markets closed for President’s Day, trade was thin today and movement was slight. But, with the President choosing to spend his day in Ukraine and China reportedly ready to supply arms to Russia, could a bounce back in world trade be an optimistic outlook? NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks trough the days new releases, including PMIs for Europe, the UK and US, as well as inflation numbers for Canada. Could we see a strong reaction if the Canada numbers are an upside surprise. Plus, will today’s minutes shed any new light on the thinking at the RBA, or did Philip Lowe say it all last week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E28 · Sun, February 19, 2023
All quiet for Presidents Day
Monday 20th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Expect a quiet trading day today with the US enjoying Presidents Day and not much in the way of data releases. Still, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out, there’s plenty to look out for later in the week, including the RBNZ’s expected 50 bp rate hike, January’s global PMI numbers, Australian wages and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. In the meantime, the question is, have yields peaked? Friday saw 10-year Treasury yields pull back a little, although 2 years are clinging to 4.6% and six month treasury notes sat above 5% for most of the day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E27 · Thu, February 16, 2023
Misleading jobs numbers and more signs inflation is hard to beat
Friday 17th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US Treasury yields pushed higher overnight as producer prices came in with a surprise month on month rise, whilst weekly jobs data shows only slight moves in the easing of the labour market. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s nothing to distract from the hawkish path being taken by the Fed, that was reinforced by Loretta Mester overnight, who expects rates to exceed 5 percent and stay there for some time. Meanwhile, in Australia yesterday’s employment numbers might be a headache for Philip Lowe when he faces questions in front of House of Reps economics committee. He is bound to be asked why, given such a fall in jobs, the RBA wouldn’t ease of on its rate path. But, as we discuss today, yesterday’s numbers might be a little misleading. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E26 · Wed, February 15, 2023
Americans and Aussies spend, whilst UK prices slide
Thursday 16th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US retail numbers for January were strong yesterday, giving no reason for markets to assume the Fed will move from its expected path of hikes following non-farm payrolls earlier in the month. At the same time industrial production was down, but the Empire State manufacturing number was better than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend says a lot of these variations are weather related, alongside other factors, such as retail inventories. Hence, markets are struggling to get a coherent picture on the real strength of the economy. Australia meanwhile has seen discretionary spending holding up and an expectation that employment numbers will pick up again in figures out today. So, the message seems to be, resilient economies with inflation perhaps taking a bit longer than expected to slow down. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E25 · Tue, February 14, 2023
Resilient inflation pushes yields higher and sends stocks in a spin
Wednesday 15th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation was shown to be moving down slower than many had hoped, sending bond yields higher. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it cements in expectations for two more 25 basis point rate hikes in March and May. NAB has also announced a revised rates call for the RBA, which is discussed on today’s podcast. Plus, employment refusing to move down in the UK or across the OECD. And US retail numbers today are expected to show growth, despite the squeeze from the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E24 · Mon, February 13, 2023
Fireworks for Inflation Day
Tuesday 14th Februarey 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI is released later today and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we can expect a market reaction whichever way it comes out. Certainly, markets are divided, with bond yields rising today suggesting rising expectations for central bank hikes, whereas equities are also up suggesting an easier path. That expectation of a path with less rate hikes comes from a New York Fed Inflation Survey which showed that household income is expected to fall this year, which it is assumed will ease price pressures. But we’ve also seen evidence of US retail spending picking up post-Christmas. Clearly opinion is divided on today’s number so, as Rodrigo puts it, ‘expect fireworks’. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E23 · Sun, February 12, 2023
Canada’s turn to surprise on jobs
Monday 13th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields continue to rise as expectations heighten just about everywhere that central banks will push faster and further on rates. As NAB’s Skye Masters discusses today on the podcast, this hawkish sentiment wasn’t helped by employment numbers for Canada on Friday which, like the US the week before, came out much higher than expected. Central banks continue to be focused on the data, but there’s not much of that today. Instead markets will be jockeying for position ahead of US CPI tomorrow, the one number that really counts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E22 · Thu, February 09, 2023
Mixed messages but a clear one from bond yields
Friday 10th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The 2s10s curve inversion increased further today, now the most inverted since 1981. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the blowout jobs numbers and ISM services read were a shot across the bows last week that is still reverberating in the markets. In the UK though, Bank of England members were in front of a parliamentary committee giving mixed messages about their future direction, from inflation concerns to worries about going too far and worsening the cost of living crisis. Today the RBA publishes the Statement of Monetary policy which, Gavin says, should add some colour to this week’s decision and the potential for two further hikes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E21 · Wed, February 08, 2023
All quiet but for the sound of central bankers
Thursday 9th February 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been quiet overnight news-wise, but a session rich with central bank speakers. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the main news came out of the ECB, where a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting seems nailed on, with talk now of another 50 possible in the May meeting as well. In the US equities have taken a hit, as expectations rise for more hikes from the Fed, with some expecting rates to touch 6% this year, although that’s not suggested by anyone in the central bank just yet. Today Germany’s delayed inflation numbers are out and will undoubtedly impact the Euro area CPI released last week. And the weekly jobless claims numbers tonight will be studied as some start to wonder whether last week’s non-farm payrolls was a bit of an outlier. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E20 · Tue, February 07, 2023
Hawkish RBA, open Powell
Wednesday 8th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t too much new from Jerome Powell when he was interviewed by the Wall Street Journal’s David Rubenstein, but that didn’t stop a rally in bonds for a short spell. It was followed by a swift reversal, perhaps on the realisation that he hadn’t actually offered anything new. NAN’s Rodrigo Catril says, nonetheless, it was a refreshingly open discussion reflecting the transparency of the Fed these days. At home a more hawkish RBA has seen bond yields rise sharply, with the expectation of more than one rise still to come. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E19 · Mon, February 06, 2023
Will the RBA join the push to go higher?
Tuesday 7th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have had a chance to digest last Friday’s US jobs numbers and are clearly expecting a more hawkish stance by the Fed. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about the potential for a higher terminal rate from the Fed and a more aggressive stance by the RBA. The expectation is that today they will lift rates by 25 basis points, but there’s the outside chance they will go further and a reduced chance of them pausing after this meeting. Tomorrow morning the Fed’s Jerome Powell is talking and its unlikely he’ll do much to soften the market’s stance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E18 · Sun, February 05, 2023
Do more jobs mean more work for central banks?
Monday 6th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US payrolls numbers on Friday showed strong jobs growth, which surprised markets pushing bond yields higher and weakening the US dollar. And NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the ISM Services number adding to the view that the Fed might have to do more to contain US inflation. Could we see two more 25 bp hikes form the Fed before they pause? And does thus change the stance of central banks globally, including the RBA tomorrow. The expectation is there will be a 25-basis point hike tomorrow and again in March, but could the terminal rate be higher given the prospect of global inflation proving harder to contain. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E17 · Thu, February 02, 2023
We don’t believe you
Friday 3rd February 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Three central banks have tried to sound hawkish this week, as they lift rates at levels already anticipated by the markets. But does the market believe them? That’s a question put to NAB’s Gavin Friend today, as US share prices rise and bond markets rally. It seems, despite central bankers (the Fed the ECB and BoE) continuing to say there’s more work to be done, there has been more focus on Jerome Powell’s line that “the disinflation process has started” and Christine Lagarde declaring “inflation risks in Europe are more balanced”. Where next depends on the data, of course, which will make tonight’s payroll numbers from the US important, along with the US ISM services index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E16 · Wed, February 01, 2023
Fed up and the fight ain’t over
Thursday 2nd February 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB In the US the Fed has announced the expected 25 basis point rate hike, but this year’s prevalent hope of a soft landing seems to have diminished somewhat. The US ISM manufacturing number was lower than expected, whilst the ADP employment numbers showed less jobs, alongside more job openings in the latest JOLTs numbers. NAB’s David de Garis is asked whether that all points to an environment where inflation falls more slowly. Certainly, core inflation is holding up more than expected in Europe and data from Zealand yesterday showed that labour costs there are still high. So, central banks will think they still have much to do, which will be evidenced by 50bp rises by the ECB and Bank of England over the next 24 hours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E15 · Tue, January 31, 2023
Slower US wages growth gives hope for a Fed pause
Wednesday 1st February 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are less than a day away from the next FOMC meeting, with the strong expectation that rates will rise in the US by 25 basis points. But in light of recent data suggesting inflation could be slowing, including last night’s wage price index, NAB’s Skye Masters says there’s increasing speculation that the Fed will pause after this meeting. Certainly the mood in markets today is positive, with increased hopes that the global economy will see a soft landing. That’s what was suggested in the latest IMF forecasts, with the notable exception of the UK. Strong earnings results and outlooks have also added to the mood. And there’s a lot more to come this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E14 · Mon, January 30, 2023
ECB still faces inflation and output challenges
Tuesday 31st January 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Spain’s inflation numbers provided an unpleasant surprise – core inflation has risen to 7.5%. Meanwhile Germany saw GDP fall in Q4 (QonQ). If these numbers are mirrored across Europe the cocktail of rising inflation and falling output is a challenging one for the ECB. NAB’s Taylor Nugent is asked if we should start talking about stagflation again. Also today we get to see the size of China’s post-lockdown bounce back, the impact of early Christmas shopping on Australia’s December retail numbers and, importantly, ahead of the FOMC, the wage price index for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E13 · Sun, January 29, 2023
A big week for earnings and central banks
Monday 30th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's a busy week ahead for central banks, with the Fed, BoE and ECB all meeting to push their rates higher. To add to the potential volatility there’s a swag of high profile corporate earnings results in the US too. But tech stocks have been pushing higher and higher so far this month, presumably o the assumption that central banks will ease off on rates soon as economic indicators start to soften. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says age inflation numbers I the US will be of particular importance this week, as service inflation is taking more time to slow than goods inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E12 · Thu, January 26, 2023
US growth provides cautious optimism
Friday 27th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A strong GDP read from the US, together with with falling prices, provided grounds for optimism in markets overnight, particularly equities that were buoyed also by a strong earnings result from Tesla. But NAB’s David de Garis says it’s not all good news. Investment in equipment was down and durable goods orders, if you take out a splurge in aircraft orders, fell in the month. And the weekly job numbers suggest the labour market remains as tight as ever. Meanwhile, what must the RBA be thinking after Wednesday’s Australian inflation number, coming in much higher than expected? Perhaps today’s producer prices will show that things are moving faster in the right direction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E11 · Tue, January 24, 2023
US stocks hit by reality check, Aussie CPI today
Wednesday 25th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares have been shaky overnight, in the runup to earnings results and on the back of mixed economic data. JB Were’s Sally Auld discusses the latest PMI data, which again shows a recession risk for the US, more hope for Europe and a dismal outlook for the UK. The NAB Business Syurvey yesterday showed that business pessimism is not reflected by a fall in business conditions, including profitability. But there was also a sign that inflation might have peaked – something that could be confirmed in Australia’s CPI numbers out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E10 · Mon, January 23, 2023
Thin trade before a flurry of PMIs
Tuesday 24th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was lighter trade overnight, with little in the way of news and China on holiday. The Aussie dollar was the standout performer in currencies, with NAB’s David de Garis suggesting this reflects the optimistic tone, reflected in US equities, with a substantial rise in the NASDAQ. Today the focus is on PMIs, which will give a clear indication of the expected recovery in Europe versus the US. In Australia the NAB Business Survey this morning will be watched to see whether the falling business confidence last time has translated into a drop in business conditions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E9 · Sun, January 22, 2023
Year of the Rabbit. Ready for the bounce?
Monday 23rd January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As we enter the Year of the Rabbit the big question is, how big will the bounce back be in China? Could it push commodity prices higher and delay the slowdown in global inflation, as suggested by EBC’S Christine Lagarde on Friday? As NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, this is a big week for inflation data, including the US PCE deflator and CPI numbers for Australia and New Zealand. Last week’s soft employment numbers have already lefty many suggesting the RBA will be more dovish in its approach, with a significant drop in bond yields. So, what impact will the latest inflation numbers have this week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E8 · Thu, January 19, 2023
Overreaction to Aussie jobs numbers, none to US debt ceiling
Friday January 20th 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a strong response to the lower-than-expected employment numbers yesterday, with 10 year bond yields falling more than 20 basis points. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this was an overreaction, because unemployment remains low and it won’t allay any of the RBA’s concerns about the tightness of the labour market, or encourage them to change their path on rate rises. No change was also the message from the ECB, reinforced by the minutes of the last meeting, and a speech at Davos by Christine Lagarde. There’s been little market reaction to the US debt ceiling. We’ve been here before and know that Republicans will use it as leverage against the BIden government, but all will be sorted by June. Today Japan’s CPI will reinforce the need for the BoJ to change policy direction at some point. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E7 · Wed, January 18, 2023
Central banks hold out despite weaker data
Thursday 19th January 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed sharply lower overnight, despite weaker data that some could argue would support a pause in Fed rate hikes. But, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, central bank speakers are arguing that there will be no deviation from earlier guidance. That’s the view in the US, as well as in Europe, despite the Bloomberg report earlier in the week suggesting otherwise. In the UK inflation fell, but not by much and wage pressures continue. In Japan the BoJ is continuing to pursue its yield curve control policy and markets will lump it till they see the flavour of Kuroda’s replacement. Locally, Australian employment data is out today, with the focus on any glimmer of reduction in the tightness of the labour market. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E6 · Tue, January 17, 2023
Europe has the edge, BoJ keeps us guessing
Wednesday 18th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB European equities rose overnight with the ZEW survey of analysts suggesting a more positive outlook and reports that the ECB might slow down its path of hikes. That’s in contrast to the US where the NY Empire State Manufacturing index came in much lower than expected, reported company earnings were mixed and equities were struggling to make gains. NAB’s Skye Masters says whatever the news lately US 10 year treasury yields are sticking close to 3.5% and doesn’t seem to be breaking lower, so data that will influence the Fed’s decision-making is crucial right now. Meanwhile, the BoJ is the focus today – and nobody is quite sure what they’ll do. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E5 · Mon, January 16, 2023
Big questions for BoJ and BoE, with no easy answers
Tuersday 17th January 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow with a question mark over the action they’ll take, if any. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there will be some changes as the bank faces the potential risk of increasing inflation. The Bank of England will be eyeing up UK employment data today, with Andrew Bailey already warning that the tight labour market and continued strike action could delay the reduction in prices. But couldn’t higher rates from the bank add to public sector wage demands? A slew of activity data from China today, and a multi-year high for the Aussie today – it touched 70 us cents for the ifrst time since August 2021. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E4 · Sun, January 15, 2023
Quietly Confident
Monday 16th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a quiet start to the week, but markets in the US finished last week assuming that inflation has peaked and the Fed will go no further than a couple of 25 basis point hikes. The increasing expectation is that the US will weather the inflation curse without going into recession. That seems less likely for the UK, even with a surprise (but marginal) increase in monthly GDP for November. Today on the podcast NAB’s Taylor Nugent looks at the week ahead, including the possibility of a widening of the tolerance band in the Bank of Japan’s yield control curve, and Australian employment data later in the week – the ongoing tightness of the labour market will be very influential in future RBA rate decisions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E3 · Thu, January 12, 2023
Heading in the right direction
Friday 13th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As expected, US inflation numbers have lowered, but Fed speakers have been quick to point out that there’s still more work to be done, with further hikes, even if 50 or 75 basis point rises are not on the cards. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the market response and expectations for where inflation and interest rates go from here. Meanwhile, a fall in China’s producer prices bodes well for helping inflation fall, whilst Australia has seen a big drop in job ads, likely to ease the influence of wage pressure on inflation. Markets will now look to the US earning season to answer the next big question, ‘what about growth?’ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E2 · Wed, January 11, 2023
Aussie Retail Therapy & US Inflation-Watch
Thursday 12th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation numbers are out today and the expectation is that they will fall. The markets, it seems, have already decided that inflation has peaked. Today on the podcast we ask, are we over the worst of it? In Australia hard times haven’t really started. NAB’s David de Garis talks about how we will weather the storm better than most, with the retail sector showing massive resilience (evidenced by yesterday’s data), tightness in the labour market likely to be moderated by increased immigration and the re-opening of China ready to ease supply chains. Nonetheless, NAB expects further rate rises from the RBA at the next two meetings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S7 E1 · Tue, January 10, 2023
Early optimism
Wednesday 11th January 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The year has started on a fairly optimistic tone, with US bond yields falling on expectations that the Fed might have to do less, leading to a fall in the US dollar. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, the major beneficiary of all this has been the Aussie dollar, up 1.3% so far this year. Hopes of more growth from China, with the zero COVID policy abandoned and the population moving quickly to herd immunity. But global optimism should be tempered with a reality check – COVID is still a concern and the war rages on in Ukraine. The ultimate reality check will be US CPI later this week? Has it peaked and, if so, how much has it fallen by? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, December 20, 2022
Big from Japan
Wednesday 21st December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of Japan has broadened the tolerance for its yield control curve target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it surprised markets because Governor Kuroda had previously stated they wouldn’t be doing that. So, why the change and why has it had such an impact on global bond and currency markets? The Australian dollar fell against a US dollar which was itself falling, in part because of the RBA minutes yesterday. We look at what was discussed. And in New Zealand, business confidence hit an all-time low (well since the survey started in the eighties). Also, in this last edition of 2022 Ray explains why this was a bad year for risk parity strategies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, December 19, 2022
Last minutes before Christmas
Tuesday 20th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There are only five sleeps to Christmas, but central banks are still cramming in what they can to position markets for the start of 2023. The ECB is ramping up its hawkish messaging, whilst the Fed continues to deny that they will start reversing rates next year, even as the housing market struggles. The RBA, meanwhile, is giving very little away, which is why there is more than the usual interest in the minutes of the last meeting out today. Plus, the Bank of Japan meets with a likely review of their monetary approach and China is promising targeted monetary policy next year. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks us through all of that in the penultimate Morning Call of the year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, December 18, 2022
US services slide, whilst China promises a J-curve recovery
Monday 19th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t much risk appetite at the end of the week, after a hawkish Fed and the same from the ECB. It still seems markets doubt the Fed will go all the way to 5.1% and are looking for reasons to assume they will relent earlier. NAB’s Skye Masters says the inversion in the Treasury yield curve will remain for some time, but wonders how much of this is being drive by the after effects of QE. Meanwhile China is planning a major comeback next year, with one official at their Central Economic Work Conference last week describing a J-curve recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, December 15, 2022
Hawks fly over frigid Europe
Friday 16th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As the UK and Europe weather a cold snap, central banks are heating up their rhetoric as the fight to cool inflation. On today’s podcast JBWere’s Sally Auld discusses the unexpectedly hawkish stance taken by the ECB, suggesting it was possibly a trade-off from pushing rates higher this time round. The Bank of England was split three ways on what to do, but ultimately lifted rates by the same amount – 50 basis points. We also look at moves by the Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank. Meanwhile, Australia’s strong employment numbers add further pressure on the RBA , whilst the RBNZ next year has to tackle inflation in an economy that refuses to slow down. And lots of PMI numbers today, just to add to the information overload a week out from Christmas. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, December 14, 2022
Hawkish Fed with higher rates for longer
Thursday 15th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets weren’t surprised by the FOMC raising rates by 50 basis points this morning – a unanimous decision by the board. But members are more divided on where to go next, with the Fed now predicting a median rate of 5.1 percent by the end of next year, even with talk of inflation having peaked. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this rise in the dot plot is based on continued labour market tightness. It could be a different picture for the Bank of England later today, and the ECB where wage inflation is not such a concern. In a feverishly busy day we also get Australian employment numbers, NZ GDP, China’s retail sales, industrial production and capex investment, and the Philly Fed’s business outlook. It’s the last gasp before Christmas! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, December 13, 2022
Christmas comes early with cooler US inflation
Wednesday 14th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI numbers came in lower than anticipated, leading to the inevitable question about whether inflation has peaked, just in time for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting? The market response was swift fall in two-year Treasury yields and a rise in equities, although much of those gains has been pared back since. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it creates a challenge for Jerome Powell, who will want to acknowledge the good news but remind markets there is still a long way to go. So, perhaps, tomorrow, he will be the Grinch who stole Christmas. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, December 12, 2022
US equities bounce ahead of a divided Fed
Tuesday 13th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities have bounced back, but the rise in the VIX index, which measures market volatility, is perhaps a better measure of where we are ahead of the FOMC meeting this week. It’s risen, highlighting uncertainty about how far the US central bank will go. Nick Timiraos describes a very divided Fed in the Wall Street Journal this morning. Also today, NAB’s Ray Attrill takes us through yesterday’s UK GDP numbers, with employment data out later ahead of the BoE meeting later in the week. Plus, the NAB Business Survey out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, December 11, 2022
US producer prices spark inflation worries ahead of the Fed
Monday 12th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a big week for central banks – the Fed, the BoE and the ECB amongst them. Plus US inflation numbers. There’s some hope that the US will head off a hard landing, with inflation expectations falling in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday, although producer prices showed a different story, adding to the US risk-off sentiment at the end of the week. So we can expect another volatile few days, but who will be the winners and the losers? NAB’s Tapas Strickland provides valuable insights to guide you into this busy week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, December 08, 2022
Slight risk bounce as US markets “clutch at straws”
Friday 9th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a bit more of a risk-on attitude in the US overnight, with equities rising for the first time in five days. Part of the reason could be a rise in jobless claims. But NAB’s David de Garis says you’d be clutching at straws to assume that means lower inflation and a less aggressive Fed. It’s just part and parcel of the volatility ahead of a bumper week next week, with US CPI, the FOMC meeting and the ECB. The last blast before Christmas. Equally as unexplained is the slow glide down in oil, when there’s every reason for it to be heading the other way. An oil leak on the Keystone pipeline saw WTI prices rise for a while, but they didn’t hold for long. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, December 07, 2022
Bouncebackability
Thursday 8th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yields fell further overnight as US wages data showed slower growth than anticipated, adding to hopes that the Fed won’t be as aggressive as they’ve been letting on when it comes to future hikes. NAB’s Gavin Friend says that does seem to be the mood of the moment. Whilst the Bank of Canada raised rates by 50 basis points – when many had considered 25 was likely – it was a dovish rise, with suggestions that they won’t be doing too much more. The RBA is moving in smaller increments, and whilst a pause is not on the cards for the next few months, it could be that they too won’t move far beyond March, with Australia potentially leading the way in bounceback-ability, says Gavin. Further reopening news from China helped with this sentiment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, December 06, 2022
No surprises from RBA but BoC on a knife-edge
Wednesday 7th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US and European equities have taken another hit. NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets continue to respond to the strong jobs data from the US on Friday and what that means for terminal Fed rates. There were no surprises from the RBA yesterday, with NAB’s Ivan Colhoun saying the central bank is very cognisant of lags in monetary policy, so it’s too early to expect any pause in the first part of next year. It’s a different story for the Bank of Canada tonight – who front-loaded hikes and the question is how close are they to reaching the end of their tightening cycle? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, December 05, 2022
Fed’s terminal rate, heading higher?
Tuesday 6th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If you believe the ISM numbers this morning, the US services sector is growing faster than anticipated. Yet the PMI measure, supposedly monitoring exactly the same activity, showed the sector is slowing. So, who do you believe? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says markets were taking a more cautious approach before the ISM number after a WSJ article suggested the Fed might indicate a higher terminal rate at their meeting next week. A 25bps rise is expected from the RBA today even as indicators suggest private sector labour costs are rising. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, December 04, 2022
The Central Bank Dilemma - is it working?
Monday 5th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US non-farms payrolls numbers on Friday were an upside surprise for the number of jobs created and the increase in wages – both factors the Fed has been trying to control. Is the policy working? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says markets have responded with the expectation of a deepening recession as the Fed pushes harder. Canadian employment numbers were also stronger than expected on Friday, so how does that impact the Bank of Canada’s rate decision this week? And, before that, the RBA – what’s their plan? Just because you’ve started opening your advent calendar don’t assume the action is slowing down for Christmas. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, December 01, 2022
So, what did markets like about Powell’s speech yesterday?
Friday 2nd December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have not significantly retraced their moves after Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday. Equities have rebounded only slightly and bond yields have continued to fall. On today’s podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland outlines why his speech created a more positive risk outlook. There was good news in amongst the data released overnight too, with ISM manufacturing showing a fall in prices paid. Abd China’s lockdowns could be easing further, with home detention now replacing quarantine centres for low-risk cases in Beijing. The focus tonight, of course, will be on US non-farm payrolls, in particular the average hourly earnings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, November 30, 2022
Powell slightly less than very hawkish
Thursday 1st December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a busy session, with NAB’s Taylor Nugent claiming Jerome Powell’s speech this morning was slightly less hawkish than markets were expecting. But the Fed chair still talked about there being a way to go to fight inflation and the need for sustained evidence of falling inflation before the battle is won. Signs of easing inflation in Australia should also be treated with caution, with yesterday’s new monthly data susceptible to the volatility we don’t see in the quarterly numbers. In Europe though markets have reacted favourably to falling inflation with the expectation that a 75 bps hike at the next ECB is now much less likely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, November 29, 2022
China calms down, European inflation eases
Wednesday 30th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar has benefited from a reversal in concerns over China. NAB’s Ray Attrill says an announcement of a more intense vaccination program for older people has markets assuming a recovery in the Chinese economy early next year. Germany’s inflation numbers came out lower than anticipated with the assumption that we will see a Europe-wide slowdown in data released data. It’s a different story for Australia though (although obviously from a lower base) with inflation expected to rise today, with NAB forecasting a greater rise than the consensus. Then the focus is on US jobs, with job openings and ADP employment numbers today, ahead of non-farm payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, November 28, 2022
Big Trouble in Zero-COVID China
Tuesday 29th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB China is losing out on two fronts. It can’t keep its COVID numbers down and now its facing protests in major cities, which could add to the slowdown in the Chinese economy and, as JBWere’s Sally Auld suggests, it could delay the speed of the global recovery. We’ve already had two Fed speakers overnight suggesting rates might be higher for longer than markets are expecting. In Europe Christine Lagarde continues to take a hawkish stance (just ahead of Euro area inflation numbers), whilst the RBA’s Philip Lowe has been forced to apologise for misleading Australians on the speed and size of rate hikes from the central bank. It’s unlikely yesterday’s drop in retail sales will have any impact on the current path from the RBA – after all, it’s just one month and there are several factors influencing that number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, November 27, 2022
China unrest hits Aussie dollar in early trade
Monday 28th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Unrest is growing in China over the zero COVID policy, with protests over the weekend in Shanghai following deaths from an apartment fire, supposedly locked down. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we’ve already seen a response to this news with a fall in the Australian dollar as the market opened. Friday saw a sell-off in European bonds as the ECB sounded ever hawkish, and an increase in the pricing of a 75bps hike at the next meeting. And the numbers are in for Black Friday sales – they are at record levels but given the current inflation levels that’s not really saying much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, November 24, 2022
ECB minutes, little action, no spoilers
Friday 25th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As you might expect, with Thanksgiving still going on in the US and everyone else watching the world cup it’s been a quiet session overnight. Still. NAB’s David de Garis joins in today to talk through the ECB minutes, Germany’s IFO numbers, the Riksbank’s interest rate decision and China’s likely response to record COVID numbers. There’s also a no-spoiler guarantee, for those recording the soccer to watch later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, November 23, 2022
Softer data, slower Fed and more Russian oil
Thursday 24th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a higher risk appetite again this morning, driven by the release of the FOMC minutes which NAB’s Gavin Friend says more or less confirmed that the Fed will lift rates by 50 bps at the December meeting. Before that, the response was to mixed data, with PMIs weaker than anticipated but strong US durable goods orders. There’s also an expectation that Russian supplies of oil might be higher than anticipated as the G7 and EU seem set to set the cap around $65-70, well above the cost of production. That might be good for inflation but a disaster in tackling Russia’s war effort, which has seen a barrage of cruise missile on Kiev overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, November 22, 2022
One more pivot before Thanksgiving
Wednesday 23rd November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB America will be sitting down to a Turkey dinner tomorrow, but before that markets seem to be determined to spread hope of a pivot from the Fed – or at the very least a slowdown in rates. That’s helped equities overnight and whilst treasury yields are falling. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s unlikely the Fed will be happy to see this sort of price action, it isn’t the message they are trying to send to markets. Less attention sems to be given to rising COVID numbers in China, which are now close to their all-time high in April and are resulting n more lockdowns in major industrial areas. And the RBA’s Philip Lowe warned about the danger of rising wages yesterday, whilst also suggesting interest rates may not return to the lows we saw before the pandemic. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, November 21, 2022
Oil, more or less?
Markets are still concerned about lockdowns in China, evidenced by the fall in US equities and a 2% drop in Apple’s share price. Oil has also been falling, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the prospect of an increase in production by OPEC+ next month pushed prices lower for a while before people started asking, ‘why would they do that?’. The argument was it was to compensate for lost Russian oil as sanctions hit, with news reports that G7 and the EU might this week agree on the price cap beyond which they will not ship or insure Russian oil, irrespective of the destination. There’s also discussion today on the fall in German producer prices, what the RBNZ will do tomorrow and what the RBA’s Philip Lowe will say over dinner tonight. Incidentally, today NAB trade donate the proceeds of today’s trading revenue to First Nations Foundation, to support the financial literacy of Indigenous communities. Or you can make a donation. Go to www.nabtrade.com.au/charityday for more information. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, November 20, 2022
A rare dull day
Monday 21st November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Friday was unusually quiet, with no big data releases and not much movement in markets. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland observes, the most significant move was the reversal in short-end yields, taking the 2-10 yield spread to minus 70bps, the highest negative spread in over forty years. Normally this would be a clear signal of an impending recession, he says, but we’ve been seeing these signs for most of the year and yet the economy remains surprisingly resilient. The last week has also seen significant falls in oil prices – we look at why. And look ahead to the RBNZ this week. But it’s likely to be a quiet week, with the US celebrating Thanksgiving on Thursday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, November 17, 2022
Tighter than ever
Friday 18th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Another 32 thousand Australians had a job in October, making the labour market the tightest it’s been in decades. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this cements in the expectation that the RBA will lift rates by at least 25 basis points in December, continuing on in the first meetings of the new year. There’s less expectation of the Fed slowing down as well, thanks to James Bullard suggesting interest rates could rise as high as seven percent. That’s hit equities and pushed bond yields higher. In the UK the new Chancellor managed to issue a budget without a massive market response. Today Japan’s inflation numbers won’t be enough to convince Kuroda to move from the path of his ultra-easy policy but, as Ken, suggests, that could change when he moves on early next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, November 16, 2022
Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?
Thursday 17th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Thankfully, World War 3 wasn’t started by that missile strike on Poland. Now markets are back to betting on how far the Fed will go, rather than NATO. As NAB’S Gavin Friend discusses yesterday’s US retail numbers shows greater resilience than anticipated, adding to the work of the FOMC to moderate demand. Moderating demand is less of an issue in the UK, where headline inflation has hit 11.1 percent and household pressures will be hit even more with a cost cutting, high taxing budget expected later today. On the home front, could the evidence of wage pressures yesterday be enough for the RBA to rethink any ideas of a pause in rates before Christmas? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, November 15, 2022
A step too far
Wednesday 16th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just as we pressed the record button on this morning’s podcast news broke that Russia had fired missiles into Poland, a NATO m ember. As JBWere’s Sally Auld explains, until that point market sentiment had been very positive, as producer prices in the US eased, adding to expectations that inflation had peaked. The missile strike was a stark remainder of what was one of the major causes of the inflation I the first place and that conflict is far from over. Locally the Australian Wage Price Index is released today and is expected to show wage pressures are well contained, supporting the RBA’s policy of a more gradual approach to rate hikes compared to their overseas counterparts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, November 14, 2022
A slight reality check
Tuesday 15th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB After the ebullient mood at the end of last week markets retraced their steps a little today, with shares on the rise and the US dollar regaining territory. NAB’s Rodrigo says Fed speakers, in particular Waller, have reminded the market that they will continue to lift rates until there are clear signs of a sustained drop in inflation. The question is, how determined will they be as we start to see more signs of a slowdown? The response to the easing of lockdowns in China seems to have persisted, with the Hang Seng strong yesterday and the Aussie dollar rising against a rising US dollar, helped by iron ore prices. And Presidents Xi and Biden have met and agreed to talk more. That’s another bit of good news ahead of G20. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, November 13, 2022
False hopes?
Monday 14th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a trifecta of good news at the end of last week that sent equities rising, bond yields falling, commodities looking up and a chance for other currencies to gain on the US dollar at last. But will it last? That’s a question put to NAB’s Ray Attrill on this morning’s podcast. China announced some easing of COVID restrictions, Russia has backed out of Kherson and markets were still rejoicing with the fall in one month’s CPI read in the US. None of those translate to a fast track to a world that’s COVID free, with peace in Ukraine and price pressures alleviated. Could markets retrace their steps a little today after the euphoria at the end of the week, or will a positive meeting between President Xi and Biden later today add to the jubilation? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, November 10, 2022
A welcome relief
Friday 11th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US core inflation dropped to 6.3% in October, below expectations and down from 6.6% in September. NAB’s David de Garis joins Phil to talk through the market reaction, which has seen stocks soar, bond yields fall and the US dollar taking a big hit. Does this mean inflation has peaked? Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan called it a ‘welcome relief’ but the message from other speakers overnight is that there’s still a lot of work to be done. In Europe the central bank seems to be upping its hawkish rhetoric, whilst the UK is still stuck with the uncertainty of a shrinking economy and a budget next week that will be more painful than restorative. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, November 09, 2022
Inflation Day
Thursday 10th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s inflation day. The CPI print is out from the US late tonight Australia time. On today’s podcast NAB’s David de Garis talks about the impact if the number is a little higher than expected. The Fed’s John Williams said overnight that the news for the US is “mostly good”, suggesting longer-run inflation expectations have remained remarkably stable. No doubt his goal was to prevent an overreaction to the numbers tonight, which will be followed by a slew of other Fed speakers in the hours that follow. There’s also a discussion about China’s producer prices on the podcast. They’re falling. Could we see China started to export deflation again? Not if they keep locking cities down. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, November 08, 2022
Downturns, mid-terms, no u-turns
Wednesday 9th November NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equity markets have switched from being upbeat about the prospect of an end to China’s zero COVID to being upbeat about the outcome from today’s mid-term elections. NAB’s Ray Attrill also talks about the differences between Australian consumer and business sentiment and why the business outlook always seems a little rosier. He also discusses how one central banker at least reckons a recession will increase inflation, whilst there’s some hope that falling producer prices from China today might dampen inflation expectations a little, as more cheaper goods are shipped around the world. And Donald Trump has announced he will be announcing something important. Any idea what that might be? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, November 07, 2022
An end to China’s Zero COVID, or not?
Tuesday 8th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We didn’t see the expected turnaround in markets on Monday. Yesterday on the Morning Call we talked about how Chinese officials had denounced speculation that they were heading away from the Zero COVID road soon, so we expected a reversal to some of the optimism in markets at the end of last week. On Monday though, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses, US equities continued to rise, with the Wall Street Journal reporting again that a turnaround in China’s policy could still be on the cards. Perhaps. Well, the Chinese trade numbers yesterday were a clear demonstration of the damage being done to the economy. Today eyes will be on the US mid-term elections and, if there’s strong support for the Republicans, whether one Mr Donald John Trump will stand for the Presidency. In the more immediate future, markets are preparing for the US inflation numbers later in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, November 06, 2022
China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again
Monday 7th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It seems likely we’ll see a reversal to some of the positive sentiment on Friday that saw equities and commodity prices rise, driven by the renewed hope that China was moving towards an end to their zero COVID approach. The official word over the weekend was that that was not the case. NAB’s Skye Masters says there was also a positive response to non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday, with a rising unemployment rate suggesting the labour market was easing and there would be less pressure on the Fed, supporting the case for a 50pc rise at the next FOMC meeting. But in Canada the labour market is as tight as ever, it seems, evidenced by rising employment numbers on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, November 03, 2022
A Tale of Two Britains
Friday 4th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It could be the worst of times, or something even worse than that. The Bank of England painted two possible scenarios overnight, after raising rates by the expected 75 basis points. In scenario one, the bulk of their work is done and rates don’t move much higher. In scenario two, rates rise to 5.25% and the country faces a two-year recession. Talk about hedging your bets. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it shows the difficulties faced in the UK and Europe, in comparison with the US, where the Fed is fighting continued high consumption levels - evidenced by high imports in the Balance of Trade overnight – and resilience in the employment market. On that point, tonight’s non-farm payrolls will be eagerly watched. We also look at what to expect in today’s Statement of Monetary Policy from the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, November 02, 2022
No Pivot from the Fed, but markets bounce about
Thursday 3rd November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Who’d have thought that a fourth 75 basis point hike by the Fed would see equity markets rally and bond yields down? As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, the bounce didn’t last long, and it was driven by the term ‘cumulative tightening’, which markets took to mean the FOMC committee believed they could slow down while they assess the aggregate impact of the hikes so far. But in the press conference that followed Jerome Powell made it clear any slow down wouldn’t imply the terminal rate will be any lower, in fact it is likely to be higher than they’d been thinking in previous meetings. Where does the Bank of England go today? The expectation is a 75 basis point hike there too, but in very different economic circumstances. If they do go lighter touch they’ll be keen to emphasise this is not a dovish pivot, simply taking stock of where they are now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, November 01, 2022
Slow and steady wins the race
Wednesday 2nd November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA has taken a slow and steady approach to interest rate hikes, so we can expect many more to come. Sally Auld says Governor Lowe said last night that the risks are more two-sided than they were a few months ago, and the bank needs to factor in the risk of the lag. It’s a very different approach being taken by the Fed, with a strong expectation that they will announce a 75bp hike tomorrow morning, reinforced by data showing a rise in job openings in the US. The optimism in markets yesterday afternoon that perhaps China was heading out of its zero COVID approach have been reversed, with newspaper reports suggested the opposite is the case and we can expect more lockdowns and the like. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, October 31, 2022
The Bank That Stops Inflation, eventually
Tuesday 1st November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today is the day of the race that stops the nation, but before the champagne flows there’s an RBA meeting to get through. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the odds are on a 25bp hike today, but the board will be considering last week’s inflation surprise and yesterday’s retail numbers. So there’s an outside chance they will go higher. The FOMC meets later this week, and tonight’s JOLTs job openings numbers will be given some consideration. It’s a while till the next ECB meeting, but an inflation shock justifies last week’s 75 basis point hike and could justify a third such rise next time. And a soggy track – good news for a British horse this afternoon? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, October 30, 2022
Will markets be spooked by scary central banks?
Monday 31st October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equity markets rose sharply on Friday, even though there’s little evidence that inflation is easing or that the Fed will slow down their pace of hikes, despite all the pivot-talk of the last week. This morning NAB’s Rodrigo Catril is asked whether they are too optimistic, given the data and geopolitics we are experiencing right now. Could the fear of persistent inflation but the frighteners on them this Halloween? The US employment cost index might have moved down slightly, but the rate of wage growth is still way higher than the Fed would like to see. In Europe equities were still rising on Friday even as inflation numbers for Germany, France and Italy were way-higher than expected. With the BoE, RBA and Fed all meeting this week will reality come back to bite? Will the word ‘Pivot’ be consigned to history, at least for a week or two? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, October 27, 2022
ECB slowing to a crawl now? More recession and pivot talk.
Friday 28th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB raised rates by 75 basis points as expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a widespread expectation that central banks will ‘pivot’, and switch away from a path of higher rate rises. We don’ have long to wait to find out with the BoE, RBA and Fed all meeting next week. But is all this pivot talk misplaced? If it’s because of softening data, the Fed has made it clear that inflation will be tackled at whatever cost. For that reason, the employment cost index will be a key number to look out for from the US today. It’s a different story for the ECB, which faces bigger recessionary fears and a mixed inflationary picture across the Euro area. Meanwhile, expect little from the Bank of Japan today, but they will have to make moves to tackle rising inflation at some point. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, October 26, 2022
Cries of ‘Pivot!’ as BoC slows hikes
Thursday 27th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of Canada lifted rates by 50 basis points this morning, against expectations of a 75 bp hike. David de Garis says there were cries of ‘Pivot’ amongst the traders at NAB in London, but how far will it stretch. Does it follow that the Fed will follow in Canada’s footsteps? It’s unlikely the ECB will, when they meet later today. Or the RBA when they meet next week, given the stronger than anticipated inflation numbers yesterday. And a sign that the confidence crisis in the UK is over, the new PM announced a delay to the issuance of their new budget without the pound tanking and a massive spike in Gilt yields. Besides the ECB, all eyes today will be on US GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, October 25, 2022
Why do so many expect the Fed to slow down?
Wednesday 26th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets and bonds have both rallied overnight, pushing yields lower again. NAB’s Skye Masters says investors are still hoping that the Fed will slow down the path of rate hikes, although there’s no data top suggest why they should and some commentators suggesting that rates might go up above 5 percent early next year. Italy’s new PM is opposed to hikes and an end to QE, warning of the impacts it’ll have on high debt economies, like Italy, for example. That’s unlikely to stop the ECB lifting rates by 75 basis points, which is what the Bank of Canada is expected to do tonight. We also take a look at yesterday’s budget and ask will it help combat inflation, or is the expectation that the RBA will do all the heavy lifting? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, October 24, 2022
US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM
Tuesday 25th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's been a very mixed session depending on vaired geographic circumstances, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent. US equities continue to rally on anticipation of positive earnings results and the hope that the Fed will slow down its pace of hikes. Europe has seen modest gains as gas prices fall, offsetting a slightly worse than expected set of PMIs. The UK has seen gilts back in fashion as Rishi Sunak is announced as the new Prime Minister, generally seen as a relatively safe pair of hands. But China has seen the offshore Yuan fall sharply and equities also taking a dive, despite relatively strong economic data, including a better-than-expected GDP read. The concern is the direction President Xi will take as he surrounds himself with allies and prepares for more controls and lockdowns. Tonight we’ll find out what’s in the Australian budget, at least those bits that haven’t already been leaked to the press. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, October 23, 2022
Fed might ease off, Boris gone
Monday 24th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US finished the week with equities rising and the dollar falling, with the Fed’s Mary Daly hinting that the path of hikes might slow for fear of an ‘unforced downturn’. NAB’s Ray Attrill notes that the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos suggesting the Fed might well be signalling a stepping down of rate increases, and that Timiraos rarely gets it wrong. It’s fun and game is the UK today as they fast track the selection process for the next Prime Minister, although since we recorded the podcast it seems an almost certainty that Rishi Sunak will be the UK's next prime MInister, staving off the turmoil that could have ensued from a Boris Johnson win. Plus, lots of PMIs today, and China’s GDP and other data, pushed back from the People’s Congress last week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, October 20, 2022
The battle for Britain
Friday 21st October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK is on the lookout for another Prime Minister after Liz Truss announced her resignation overnight. Her replacement will be found by Friday next week, at the latest, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says there could be a new PM in place as soon as Monday. There wasn’t a massive market reaction, with the good news offset by the uncertainty of who will replace her. Boris perhaps? Yes, really. Meanwhile Aussie jobs numbers show the labour market remains tight, as did US weekly jobless claims. In short, another day with no signs of inflation easing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, October 19, 2022
Full reversal, for today
Thursday 20th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a very mixed day, but generally the reverse of yesterday. The US dollar has gained strength, bond yields have pushed higher and equities have fallen, despite some strong corporate earnings. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says we are back to worrying about inflation and central bank’s pursuing elevated interest rate paths. US 10 year yields reached a 14 year high overnight, as the Fed’s Neel Kashkari declared he had not seen any signs yet that inflation had peaked. Higher than expected inflation numbers in the UK and Canada have added to the mood, although gilt yields have fallen as markets assume a more balanced approach by the government, although looking at the political shenanigans overnight the environment is far from stable. And Russia is stepping up action against Ukraine, adding to global uncertainty. Hence, the volatility. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, October 18, 2022
A Bear Rally Amid Hopes (again) of an Inflation Peak
Wednesday 19th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets have managed to climb again in the US, supported by earnings results, although NAB’s Ray Attrill describes it as a bear rally. There is still plenty of uncertainty around, evidenced by moves in bonds, in all directions. The BoE drove some of the movement when they announced they would resume bond purchases next month, on schedule, despite the diversion last week. New Zealand’s inflation numbers yesterday surprised on the upside, which begs the question, will we see the same with CPI for the UK and Canada today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, October 17, 2022
Brits Big U Turn, America Buys the Dip
Tuesday 18th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK government decided it couldn’t wait till the end of the month to reverse almost all of their unfunded tax cuts, so they did it yesterday, much to everyone’s surprise. Markets have taken it well, with big falls in bond yields and a rise in Sterling, but as JBWere’s Sally Auld points out, there is still a big budget gap to bridge. The impact has helped buoy US equity markets though – perhaps looking for a buy-the-dip excuse. Today look out for NZ CPI and the minutes of the last RBA meeting, when they surprised with a less than expected 25bp rate hike. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, October 16, 2022
Where does it end?
Monday 17th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US Treasury yields rose higher still on Friday as markets absorbed Thursday’s inflation print and the expectation of faster hikes and a higher terminal rate from the Fed. Despite the hikes so far, there’s few signs of a slowdown, with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril pointing to Friday’s retail numbers which showed yet more resilience in spending from US consumers. We look at how this is all playing into the weakness of the Australian dollar. And then there’s the UK! Will they have a change of Prime Minister, will a complete reversal in policies be enough to stop the BoE picking up its pace of increase, and if it is, what does that mean for the pound. Plus, the China People’s Congress, the fall in oil prices and much more besides. It’s a busy start to the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, October 13, 2022
Massive swings as US inflation stays high and UK ready for U-turn
Friday 14th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a stormy night, with violent swings in bond yields and US equities. As NAB’s Skye Masters explains, shares plummeting as the higher than expected CPI read but then staged a massive rebound later I the session, fishing markedly higher towards the close. Bond markets responded more predictably, pricing in a more aggressive path of rate hikes from the Fed – maybe 150bp before Christmas. Meanwhile, massive swings on UK bonds with reports that the Truss government might be ready to stage another u-turn on their unfunded tax cuts, although the Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has denied this. Today, US retail numbers will have less influence than the CPI, but a strong read will indicate a more resilient economy which would suggest rates will stay higher for longer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, October 12, 2022
Less jobs before Fed stops
Thursday 13th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The BoE has been buying up more bonds to protect pension funds from the volatility of an economy still struggling with the budget presented by the Truss government. But when Andrew Bailey says the help stops on Friday does he really mean it, or will they be back buying bonds next week? Meanwhile the latest GDP numbers show the UK could well be in a recession, or at least the economy is looking very off colour. Meanwhile, the latest FOMC minutes show the US central bank is determined to continue to tackle inflation, and rate rises won’t stop until the labour market starts to rescind. The number that will drive markets today – US CPI. Whether its higher or lower than expected, we can still expect a reaction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, October 11, 2022
Don't Panic Mr Bailey
Tuesday 12th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of England has been buying up more government bonds as it fights uncertainty in UK markets. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s no surprise that they have had to target 30 year inflation-linked bonds, as they constitute a large proportion of the stock held by the pension funds the bank is trying to protect. But, with devastating opinion polls and a rebuff of their budget plans by the IMF, expect more UK uncertainty in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, in Australia the gap between consumer and business expectations has widened further, we look at why that is. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, October 10, 2022
Gloomy and more uncertain
Tuesday 11th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The latest title from to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook is ‘Gloomy and More Uncertain’. That certainly reflects the mood this morning, with risk driven by an escalating war in Ukraine, question marks over whether the UK Chancellor’s budget will pass muster with the markets, and the China slowdown, now added to by President Biden cracking down on the export of advanced semiconductors. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the timing of the US Presidents restriction is impeccable, just ahead of the Party Congress and the expected announcement of President Xi winning another term in office. Is that why the Aussie dollar is so weak today, falling more than any other major currency? And will we see a continued division between negative consumer sentiment in Australia, offset by more a positive business sector? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, October 09, 2022
Tight labour, hawkish banks, angry Putin
Monday 10th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a strong market reaction to non-farm payrolls on Friday, which suggested the US labour market remains tight, with the unemployment rate falling. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it was another of those ‘good news is bad news’ moments, likely to keep the Fed on its hawkish path for some time yet. That could be reinforced if CPI data this week remains strong. The question is, how will any central bank know when it has overshot its target? There could be some caution today as the world waits for Putin’s response to the Crime bridge explosion. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, October 06, 2022
Less pivot hope, from Paris
Friday 7th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still nervous. This morning NAB’s Gavin Friend says hopes of a pivot from the Fed have more or less disappeared, following on from the softer manufacturing numbers earlier in the week. The Fed’s Neal Kashkari said we are quite a way away from a pause in their path of rate hikes. A lot rests on today’s non-farm payrolls, with the markets ready to pounce on anything that could suggest a slow down from the Fed. Today’s episode, out a little earlier than normal, comes from the Australian Embassy in Paris, where NAB has been talking to investors about opportunities in Aussie infrastructure and energy projects. Gillian Bird, the Australian Ambassador to France, joins us on the podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, October 05, 2022
Pivot talk killed by resilient services ISM read
Thursday 6th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday’s vain hope of a pivot by the Fed, to slow down rate rises after the weaker job openings numbers, were destroyed today by a stronger than expected non-manufacturing ISM read. Not only was the main number higher than anticipated, at 56.7, new orders were strong too. It was another of those good news is bad news moments, because its unlikely the Fed will consider any slow down in their path of rate hikes when the economy is showing strong growth against a tight labour market. On that, the ADP employment numbers reported wages growing at 7.6 percent in September. This could be an unfortunate precursor to the non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday. The day’s other big news is the OPEC+ decision to cut oil by two million barrels a day – a move which could add to inflation pressures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, October 04, 2022
Markets jump on JOLTs and RBA surprise
Wednesday 5th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s plenty of talk of a Fed pivot according to JBWere’s Sally Auld, but is it an overreaction? The drivers have been the smaller than expected rise by the RBA yesterday and one million less jobs being advertised in the US. Bond yields have fallen and the equity markets are lapping it up. So, today, will the RBNZ follow in the RBA’s footsteps? Markets are expecting a 50 basis point rise in New Zealand, but that’s what they said about Australia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, October 03, 2022
Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in
Tuesday 4th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s been a swift change of direction in markets, with bond yields falling and big rises in equities in the US and Europe. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there are several reasons for this reversal in fortune. Part of it is a partial u-turn by the UK chancellor over unfunded tax cuts, suggesting the new government is not as cavalier as some had feared. Second, the US ISM numbers came in weaker than expected, showing a fall in demand, rising inventories and a drop in manufacturing prices. Locally, the RBA is expected to lift rates by 50bp today, and tonight the US job openings numbers will be viewed to see if there is any easing in the labour market. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, October 02, 2022
No slowdown yet: Euro inflation and US core PCE
Monday 3rd October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The lasting effect from the UK’s mini-budget kerfuffle has not been the weakness in the pound – that’s bounced back for now – but the rise in bond yields. They are, of course, rising everywhere as central banks find it increasingly hard to fight inflation. The pound might feel some pressure today, though, as S&P put the UK’s credit rating on a “negative outlook”. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it doesn’t mean a downgrade is going to happen, but it adds to the uncertainty the UK is facing right now. Meanwhile, inflation remains strong, with the Euro area reporting 10% and the US Core PCE read on Friday also on the rise. Oil prices are likely to rise as well as OPEC+ meets this week, with a large cut in production likely. Locally, the RBA meets tomorrow. We look at what to expect. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, September 29, 2022
UK calmer, US stocks fall, yields rising on hawkish Fed & ECB
Friday 30th September 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Things are calmer in the UK because the Prime Minister has agreed to get the numbers to support last week’s budget. Whilst that’s helped the pound a little, yields continue to rise. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the volatility is far from over in the UK. Elsewhere there’s rising concern over inflation, which is showing little signs of easing, with central banks (the Fed and ECB in particular) continuing their hawkish tilt. That’s hit US stocks hard today. Also on today’s podcast a look at yesterday’s monthly CPI umbers for Australia and a look ahead to European inflation data today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, September 28, 2022
UK ticked off by IMF, whilst BoE goes back to QE
Thursday 29th September 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been quite a session in the UK, with the IMF reprimanding the government over it’s budget, and the Bank of England suspending its quantitative tightening, instead switching to buying longer end bonds in a move to protect pension funds. What’s all this doing to the UK’s credibility? NAB’s David de Garis talks through the events from London. In the US equities have bounced back, even though central banks show no sign of stepping back on their hawkish stance. The war in Ukraine is showing signs of escalation, with Russia now accused of sabotaging gas pipelines in the Baltic and the EU promising more sanctions this Friday. But Australia, for now, is avoiding the worst of the declines, with retail sales holding up, at least in terms of money spent. Today inflation and jobs vacancies for Australia will be keenly watched. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, September 27, 2022
US dollar and bond yields continue to rise, till when?
Wednesday 28th September 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A rising US dollar, yields pushing higher, equities being sold off, central bankers talking up rates – that’s been business as usual lately. NAB’s Skye Masters says resilience in economic data, particularly for the US, isn’t making the job any easier for central banks, who expect rates to be higher for longer than markets envisage. In the UK the terminal rate for the Bank of England has risen markedly, of course, with Huw Pill, the chief economist, warning that the response to the government’s budget will require a significant monetary policy response, but not till November. Presumably that means they continue with their quantitative tightening. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, September 26, 2022
Unruly Britannia
Tuesday 27th September 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The pound fell to an all-time low overnight before picking up a little, but still well down on the day as markets react badly to the new UK Chancellor’s mini-budget last week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the response, which is being driven largely by uncertainty. Gilt yields have pushed up markedly and the unease has spread to other markets, with bond yields also rising sharply in the US. There has been some expectation that the Bank of England will call an emergency meeting, whilst the Chancellor has said he will provide a fully costed proposal in two months’ time. Will markets settle down without reassurance that the government has its finances under control? Meanwhile, data releases globally were largely softer, including sizeable downgrades to growth forecasts in the latest OECD economic outlook. On the speakers circuit later on, Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist – perhaps not the easiest gig this time round. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, September 25, 2022
The pound hammered, will it last?
Monday 26th September 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK budget that wasn’t a real budget, turned out to be more far reaching than most budgets and certainly had far more market impact. On today’s podcast Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the sharp fall in the pound will be retraced this week, particularly as the UK’s government debt is still far less than many other European nations. Italy’s election results will be released shortly, but the lurch to the right has already been well signalled. On the data front, PMIs on Friday showed further weakness in Europe and the UK, with some gains in the US, but the picture is not pretty anywhere. Today data includes Germany’s IFO and the OECD’s interim economic outlook. More importantly, there are a few inflation indicators later in the week for the US, the Eurozone, China and Australia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, September 22, 2022
Central bank overload
Friday 23rd September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 Bond yields continued to rise in the US one day on rom the FOMC meeting. NAB’s Ken Crompton says normally you’d expect to see a bit of a rebound, so this is a sign that the market has accepted that the Fed are determined to keep going, evidenced by the elevated dot plots yesterday. Meanwhile the Bank of England lifted rates 50bp – it probably would have been higher if the UK government hadn’t stepped in with a cap on energy prices, although their mini budget today will include tax cuts that could go against the bank’s objectives. The Bank of Japan didn’t move at all and a very dovish speech by Gov Kuroda sent the Yen spiralling lower, forcing the Ministry of Finance to intervene. Lots of PMIs today to provide evidence of which economies are softening and which, like the US perhaps, are holding up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, September 21, 2022
0.75% hike by the Fed, no bluff
Thursday 22nd September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 No surprise, the Fed has lifted rates by 75 basis points. NAB’s Gav Friend says the response in the bond markets was a reaction to the dot plots, which suggest rates will be at 4.4% by the end of the year, 4.6% next year and 3.8% in mid-2024. They all represent a considerable increase in the numbers given back in June. The Bank of England meets later and, although markets are expecting a 75-basis point hike there too, its unlikely to happen as inflation could well be tamed by a high level of government support for fuel costs. In other news, Putin has called up 300 thousand reserves and threatened the use of all resources, even nuclear, if the west attacks territories deemed by referendums to be part of Russia. No bluff, he said. We look at what impact this will have on market sentiment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, September 20, 2022
Fed to push higher, Putin pushing for referendums
Wednesday 21st September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 Bond yields have pushed higher in the US and the UK ahead of the Fed and the Bank of England meetings tomorrow. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the expectation is still for a 75 bp hike, although that was the assumption for the Riksbank too, but they lifted rates by 100 yesterday. But as Taylor points out, they are starting from a lower base. But are there signs that inflation is easing. Oil is down, China is reopening, Hong Kong has eased restrictions and Taiwan is busy responding to demands for new iPhones. Is life starting to get back to normal and could easing of supply pressures bring prices down? Or simply create yet more demand? Ukraine presents further risk today, with Russia planning sham referendums in captured territories, which has the potential to escalate the war. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, September 19, 2022
Fears the Fed will keep at it for a while yet
Tuesday 20th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 It was a quiet session overnight with the UK on holiday and a fair bit of attention on a funeral service in London. Nonetheless bond yields continued to push higher. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets have priced in rate rises this week of 80 basis points in both the UK and US, meaning there’s some chance the hike will be more than 75. ‘Keeping at it’ was the title of Paul Volcker’s book and that seems to be the Fed’s philosophy right now – and for other central banks, Japan and China excluded. Canada's inflation numbers today will give us a good indication of whether going hard and going early helps contain inflation any quicker. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, September 18, 2022
Prepare for a volatile week of Banks and Holidays
Monday 19th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 It’s a confusing week ahead of central bank meetings and public holidays. The Queen’s funeral will attract most attention today, but not on the markets that could see a quiet start to a busy week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’ll add to the volatility this week, driven by uncertainty and liquidity. Whilst most expect a 75 basis point rise from the Fed this week, there’s still a chance they will lift by 100. The UK faces a decision by the Bank of England and a mini budget from Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Chancellor, that could add to big increases in bond issuance. Plus, a meeting of the UN General Assembly which could (perhaps) see Putin lose more allies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, September 15, 2022
Heading higher and taking longer
Friday 16th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 Front end bond yields pushed higher in the US, as shares fell sharply and oil prices fell. The inversion in the yield curve continues to point to a recession with investors clearly expecting a higher terminal rate by the Fed. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are still reeling from the higher than expected inflation read this week, and much now rests on what Jerome Powell says next week. The picture is muddy, with today’s data releases fairly mixed. US retail sales were up, but the Philly Fed manufacturing index fell, with a big decrease in new orders. We try and make sense of it all in today’s podcast, along with analysis of yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and words on the meeting between Presidents Putin and Xi in Uzbekistan yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, September 14, 2022
The day after. No big bounce.
Thursday 15th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 Yesterday, markets responded sharply to the higher-than-expected inflation read from the US. You might have expected a bit of a correction today as markets take stock of the news, but that didn’t really happen. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, there is still an expectation of sharp moves by the Fed, with the possibility of a 100bp rise still on the table. UK inflation fell back into single figures, but only because petrol prices have fallen. Today Australian employment numbers and US retail sales are the figures to look out for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, September 13, 2022
Peak inflation, not yet
Wednesday 14th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 Markets were caught off guard by the higher-than-expected inflation rad fom the US. The fall in energy prices has been offset by a broad-based rise across all other sectors. US equities fell heavily, bond yields rose and the US dollar gained significant ground. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the results have raised the spectre of a possible 100bp rise by the Fed and a higher terminal rate. The UK gets their inflation numbers later, after falling unemployment numbers and rising wages yesterday. So, what about Australia, where the NAB Business Survey showed improvements in business conditions and sentiment – but what did it tell us about inflation expectations? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, September 12, 2022
The risk of rising risk sentiment
Tuesday 13th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 Risk sentiment is improving, with shares up in the US and Europe and the US dollar losing ground to the Euro. Why? It’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Tapas Strickland in today’s Morning Call. The EU has drafted an energy plan that includes a windfall tax on fossil fuel providers, but the data over the last 24 hours shouldn’t imbue confidence. UK GDP growth was below expectations, and the IFO has substantially downgraded their forecasts for Germany. The big event today is the CPI figure for the US tonight, although its unlikely to change the expectations for a 75bp hike from the Fed at their next meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, September 11, 2022
Fed still pushing, BoE pushes back, EU struggling for answers
Monday 12th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 Curiously, US shares pushed higher towards the end of last week, even though there is no sign of the central bank slowing down its path of rate rises. Quite the reverse in fact. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says short-selling has been a driving force behind this and we can expect volatility in equity markets for some time. Meanwhile, front end bond yields are rising as Fed speakers find new ways to signal continued tightening, with no let-up until the job is done. We might hear the same from the Bank of England, except they’ve pushed back their next meeting to next week in respect to the death of Queen Elizabeth II, but it could work out as much better timing for them as well. The EU are struggling to find an answer to energy prices, but have agreed that something needs to be done, hopefully before the cold weather sets in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, September 08, 2022
Yields rising as ECB lifts rates and Fed prepares for a big one
Friday 9th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 Even though a big hike from the Fed is widely anticipated, bond yields continue to move up as Jerome Powell and other speakers talk it up. The moves were even bigger in Europe where an expected 75 basis point hike saw a sharp rise up in 2 year Bund yields. NAB’s David de Garis says markets expect that, at some point soon, central banks will start pulling back and they are looking for that inflection point. Today there was no sign of that happening anytime soon on either side of the Atlantic. But the RBA’s Jerome Powell was sounding far more dovish. The new UK PM outlined her plans to subsidise energy, which will involve a massive amount of government spending. Sadly, the news was overshadowed by the passing of Her Royal Highness. Irrespective of your views on the monarchy, most people acknowledge Elizabeth II was a warmly regarded, hard working lady who will be sadly missed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, September 07, 2022
Bigger hopes of smaller hikes to come
Thursday 8th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 There were big market moves yesterday and overnight, with sharp drops in oil prices, bond yields falling, a turnaround in US equities and the US dollar gaining some ground, with the Yen falling to its lowest level in 24 years. NAB’s Skye Masters says there wasn’t much data to influence the markets, but there was a lot of Fed commentary that is suggesting that perhaps the pace of interest rate moves might begin to slow down. Falling oil prices and government subsidies on gas prices will also be seen as helping to tame inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, September 06, 2022
More work for the Fed, UK’s massive Truss Fund
Wednesday 7th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 There was a strong response to the US Services ISM overnight, which came in stronger than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says they have raised expectations for a 75bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, pushing bond yields higher overnight. In the UK Liz Truss is officially Prime Minister and is expected to freeze energy bills with what could amount to a £1,500 subsidy per household. So that could help reduce inflation, but higher government spending could have the opposite effect, particularly in combination with planned tax cuts. There’s also discussion about the RBA decision, Australia’s widening current account surplus, China’s trade data and the Bank of Canada meeting tonight. A busy one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, September 05, 2022
UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today
Tuesday 6th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 It’s RBA day today. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through what to expect, whilst Ray Attrill looks at the worsening situation in the UK and Europe. Gas prices have risen after the closure of the Nordstream pipeline, and oil prices are also on the rise after OPEC+ agreed to production cuts from next month. We’ve also seen a revision in PMIs in Europe, with the UK services PMI moving into contractionary territory. Signs of resilience are quickly disappearing. It’s a different story for the US, though, where ISM numbers are expecting to stay above 50, adding to the pressure the US dollar will place on other major currencies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, September 04, 2022
Putin ends Goldilocks moment
Monday 5th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 There was a short-lived burst of positivity on Friday, when USD payrolls numbers delivered a Goldilocks result, with jobs rising, but wage rises easing and more people piling into the jobs markets. The good news was offset by news that Russia will not be reopening the Nordstream gas pipeline, adding to the pressure on Europe to navigate its way through winter. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the market impact on today’s podcast, as well as the problems in China, where 65 million people are currently in lockdown in 33 cities. The ECB, RBA and Bank of Canada all meet this week, and the UK gets a new Prime Minister later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, September 01, 2022
Will strong jobs numbers add to the Fed’s battle tonight?
Friday 2nd September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 We know the world is in an awkward place, but we keep getting positive data reads, like a strong manufacturing ISM from the US, retail sales picking up in Germany, UK house prices still strong – all the things central banks don’t really want to hear right now. So what happens if non-farms payrolls in the US tonight shows a labour market that isn’t showing any signs of weakening? NAB’s Ken Crompton reckons a soft read will cause more of a fall in bond yields than the response to a stronger set of numbers. It’ll be an asymmetric response, he says. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, August 31, 2022
Euro inflation high, pound heading back to the pleasure dome
Thursday 1st September 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Euro area inflation is the highest since the creation of the Euro and NAB’s David de Garis says markets are no pricing in a greater than 50 percent change that the ECB will lift rates by 75 basis points next week. That’s helped support the Euro today, whilst the pound falls further, to levels we saw in early 1985, when mullets were fashionable. Still are for some, of course. Australia’s construction sector has taken a battering, driven by weather and higher supply costs, but private sector credit growth remains strong. China’s PMIs show an economy that is taking a long time to recover – in part because of COVID, but hot weather has also had an impact. Friday’s jobs numbers will focus attention now, but the new ADP report has shown jobs growth for larger businesses and a fall in small business employment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, August 30, 2022
More good news, that’s actually bad news
Wednesday 31st August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The US jobs market grew last month, whilst consumer sentiment improved. It’s not what the Fed wants to hear. Do these positive numbers mean that the US can survive a soft-landing? No, says JBWere’s Sally Auld, it just piles the pressure on the Fed to be more aggressive on rate rises. The consumer sentiment probably reflects little more than a fall in petrol prices. We know Europe is set for a hard landing, even though gas prices have fallen and Germany’s reserves are up to 80 percent. But German inflation was higher than expected overnight, which suggests the European numbers will also be higher tomorrow, putting pressure on the ECB to move faster. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, August 29, 2022
Aussie yields push higher after July’s shopping bonanza
Tuesday 30th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Bond yields in Australia rose sharply yesterday. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was part of the global response to Jerome Powell’s short hawkish speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, but it was also because of the much higher than expected July retail numbers for Australia, which might suggest the RBA will have to push harder to knock inflation down to size. There’s also discussion about how quickly the market in the US is expecting to see rates rise, and how quickly they expect inflation to fall. Also, the latest on the European energy crisis, why oil has pushed higher today and a look ahead to European inflation umbers and US jobs data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, August 28, 2022
Fickle equity investors respond to unsurprising Powell comments
Monday 29th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9We knew Jerome Powell would be giving a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, so why were equity investors so surprised when he did just that? Clearly, they didn’t get the memo, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, referring to a huge sell off in US shares on Friday, mirrored by a big fall in the Aussie dollar. So how will the Aussie shape up now, if we see Europe and the US heading into recession, That’s more likely in Europe, where gas prices continue to rise and deliveries from Russia stop totally middle of the week, with a question mark on when – and if – they will start again. Meanwhile, Britain’s energy prices continue to rise to unprecedented levels. Where does it all end. And happy birthday to us; the Morning Call is six years old today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, August 25, 2022
Peering into Jackson hole
Friday 26th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s unlikely to be any surprises when Jerome Powell steps up to the podium at the Jackson Hole Symposium tonight (Australian time). It’s well signalled that he will be uber-hawkish, and with the Fed’s credibility on the line, best not to go too-soft when inflation is spiking. That said, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there has been some pull back in bond yields ahead of the main act, whilst equities have pushed higher overnight. Minutes from the ECB have largely been overtaken by events. It was noted that a “recession would not necessarily diminish upside inflation risks, especially if it was related to a gas cut-off”, but the question remains, what can monetary policy do about it? And US GDP has been revised up, still in negative territory but gross domestic income perhaps provides a more realistic – and positive – picture of the health of the US economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, August 24, 2022
Dire Straits for UK and Europe
Thursday 25th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Ukraine has just celebrated Independence Day and it’s becoming clearer how much the UK and Europe is paying the price. NAB’s Gavin Friend paints a pessimistic picture about the outlook for that part of the world, as gas prices push ever higher. He says the Fed can raise rates to moderate demand in the US, but in Europe rate hikes will do nothing to mitigate rapidly rising energy prices. Joe Stiglitz has been saying overnight that interest rate hikes will do other than, he reckons, make inflation worse. Yet UK two-year yields shot higher overnight on expectations that the Bank of England will push ahead with a faster path of rate increases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, August 23, 2022
Business activity falls, but not enough to slow the Fed
Wednesday 24th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It’s that time of the month when PMI reads give us a global snapshot of how everyone is doling relative to each other. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the US provided the biggest surprise with a sharp fall in the services number, moving further into contraction territory, with a read of 44.1 – a 27 month low. That’s somewhat worse than services numbers in Europe, and well below the UK, which continues to surprise, with a Services PMI read of 52.5 (actually growing). The bad news from the US was compounded by a fall in the Richmond Fed manufacturing index (also moving into contraction) and a further slowdown in new home prices. But Europe’s future continues to be dominated with higher fuel costs, which show no signs of settling down. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, August 22, 2022
Markets respond as European gas prices push ever higher
Tuesday 23rd August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The US dollar has risen close to a multi-decade, against a falling Euro and pound, as the energy outlook in that part of the world worsens and gas prices continue to skyrocket. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this has added to the resolve of central banks to tackle inflation with faster rises in interest rates. There is a plethora of PMI reports today. The question is, if they show any weakening in the performance of economies, will that be enough to moderate the hawkishness that’s prevalent amongst most central banks right now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, August 21, 2022
Shopping to the very end
Monday 22nd August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Markets seem to have got used to the idea that central banks will be more aggressive with cash rate hikes, ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of the week. Part of the reason for that is because, what’s been done so far is clearly not enough. UK retails sales increased in July despite all the talk about the dire state of the economy. The Canadians are also out shopping. We also saw a big increase in purchase prices in Germany, in fact the largest monthly rise since 1949. All of this adds to the expectations that the meeting in Wyoming will see an increasingly hawkish stance from all gathered there. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, August 18, 2022
Fed still trying to show they won’t give in
Friday 19th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Bond markets have been fairly lacklustre today. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there is still uncertainty over the less-hawkish FOMC minutes this week, which is why central bank speakers are out in force pushing the party-line for higher rates faster. There’s still a difference between the markets and the Fed on how quickly those rates will come down. Meanwhile, there’s still plenty of resilience in the US economy, with jobs not really coming down. As we saw yesterday, it’s the same story in Australia. The Euro saw a sharp fall today, as gas prices shot up to a record high. Canadian and UK retail numbers are out later – will they be a other sign of resilience in the face of adversity? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, August 17, 2022
UK’s sticker shock inflation drives caution
Thursday 18th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Inflation clearly isn’t easing yet. The UK hit 10.1 percent in numbers released yesterday. NAB’s David de Garis says the sticker-shock of double-digit inflation set the cautious mood off early. But if hiking by central banks is designed to slow consumption it is taking its time about it. US retail sales were up 10.3 percent (YoY) in July. Can an aggressive path of hikes slow demand enough to stop inflation in its tracks? Will the RBNZ be the first to demonstrate success? And will the RBA need to pick up the pace, with some worrying signs in the wages data yesterday, even though the headline number seemed quite tame. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, August 16, 2022
Retail, wages and RBNZ
Wednesday 17th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Central banks continue to keep a close eye on wages data. The UK has just reported a drop in wages growth, alongside a fall in new jobs. We’ll see Australia’s wage growth numbers later today, which NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says shouldn’t be a big rise this quarter, but expect more in Q3 and Q4. Also today, the state of US retail, Canada’s rising inflation (despite all the front-loading of interest rates) and what to expect from the RBNZ. A busy day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, August 15, 2022
Slow boat from China
Tuesday 16th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The Aussie dollar has retreated from the gains at the end of last week, after a slowdown in China’s retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment. All grew well below expectations, as COVID continues to influence behaviour and, clearly, buying habits. We’ve also seen a big drop in oil overnight. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the fall is a combination of the weaker China data and signs that an Iran nuclear deal could be getting closer, which would see more oil pumped into the global marketplace. In the US equities continue to rise, even though the housing market is struggling, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index showed a massive (unbelievable) fall. The RBA minutes will be scoured today for any signs of the direction the bank will take now it is not, in their words, on a “pre-set path”. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, August 14, 2022
A positive outlook, apart from the downturn
Monday 15th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There was a lot more positive sentiment around on Friday, because there are more signs that perhaps inflation is peaking. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says strong corporate earnings have helped, and a belief that the Fed will not be moving much further on rate hikes – even though many Fed speakers are keen to argue otherwise. It’s a different story amongst bond markets, were the 2-10 years spread remains firmly in negative territory, suggesting a recession or at least much slower activity for the remainder of the year. The RBNZ meets this week – Phil asks Tapas is they are being viewed as a test case for central banks, given that interest rates are likely to hit 3% this week, amid signs that the economy is slowing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, August 11, 2022
Not convinced by the Fed
Friday 12th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Markets are still behaving as though inflation will not reach the heights predicted by the Fed, and that the path of hikes will be downgraded. Softer PPIs in the US added to this sentiment. But NAB’s David de Garis says energy prices are the big concern. Brent is back over $100 a barrel, with concerns that European demand to substitute gas will push prices higher and add to inflationary pressures. But will inflation create a recession? GDP numbers in the UK today are expected to show a decline, yet unemployment remains persistently low, retail numbers are doing well and Dave says the streets of London are filled with people spending money. It doesn’t feel like a recession, whatever the numbers show. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, August 10, 2022
False hope on easing inflation?
Thursday 11th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9US inflation numbers were lower than expected, giving markets a major boost if confidence. Shares rose sharply, thew VUIX index fell to the lowest in quite a while, the USA dollar weakened, and the Aussie dollar was given a major boost. But will the enthusiasm last? As NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains, the falls were largely related to lower energy prices and the low-side core surprise was a payback for the high-side reading in June. In fact, the core reading is still rising and the Fed has made it clear they still have more work to do. So, can we expect markets to retrace their steps a little over the next day or so? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, August 09, 2022
Inflation Day
Wednesday 10th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The long-awaited US CPI numbers are out today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril most attention will be paid to the core reading, which excludes energy and food, the two factors which the Fed can have less influence over. If the core reading rises it shows the Fed has more work to do and that will only exacerbate recession fears. On that, we’ve seen the 2-10 yield spread falling ever lower to levels normally only ever seen ahead of recessions. China’s CPI and PPI reads will also be of interest today. There’s also discussion on today’s podcast on the NAB Business Survey yesterday – how can business indicators be so strong, whilst consumer sentiment is falling? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, August 08, 2022
Markets in limbo
Wednesday 9th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Markets are a bit in limbo today. We’ve seen bond yields reversing some of their initial response to non-farm payrolls, with the US dollar temporarily switching direction, and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars gaining strength. But for how long? NAB’s Skye Masters says what happens next will depend on US CPI numbers tomorrow. There was a glint of hope that the worst is over with slight decline in inflation expectations in the US and New Zealand. Certainly the NAB business survey will be scanned eagerly today for price movement. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, August 07, 2022
US jobs market too hot for the Fed?
Monday 8th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The US non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday were certainly a surprise to many, with 528k new jobs created in July, twice the market expectation. Wages also rose further. Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the swift market response, with many assuming the Fed will go for another big hike at their next meeting. US consumer credit numbers on Friday are also a forewarning of a difficulty period ahead for struggling housheolds. Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s Climate bill has just been passed by the senate – what impact will another splurge of government spending have on the Fed’s endeavours to bring down inflation. Speaking of which, US CPI is the number to look out for this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, August 04, 2022
Uncertainty reigns, except in Britain. It’s just grim there.
Friday 5th August 2022Markets continue to be pulled in two directions. Is inflation peaking with the hope of a soft landing? Or is there more to come, forcing central banks to lift rates high enough to spark a recession. At least the uK seems to have a clearer picture, but its not a good one. As NAB’s Gavin Friend discusses today, the Bank of England has lifted rates by 50 basis points, lifted their inflation forecasts and warned of five consecutive quarters of economic contraction. So, why is it so much worse in the UK than Europe? And could a change in Prime Minister change the outlook? He also talks to Phil about yesterday’s Australian trade data and looks ahead to tonight’s non-farm payrolls in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, August 03, 2022
The quick path to credible disinflation and other stories
Thursday 4th August 2022Nancy Pelosi has moved on from Taiwan and taken the cautious sentiment with her. Instead, very positive ISM services numbers in the US, and James Bullard talking about how the Fed will deliver ‘credible disinflation’, have seen the US dollar strengthen, helped shares bounce back and driven front end bond yields down. Today Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about what Bullard had to say, what to expect from the Bank of England today and whether Australia’s trade balance will actually increase, rather than the consensus view of a slight fall. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, August 02, 2022
Pelosi in Taiwan, Fed nowhere near almost done
Wednesday 3rd August 2022There has been some market caution this morning as Nancy Pelosi arrives in Taiwan, much to the disgust of China. Her rhetoric has been confrontational too, so what is the purpose of this visit? Fed speakers have been keen to shift US market sentiment away from the notion that there will be an easing in the path of rate hikes, with Mary Daly saying they are “nowhere near almost done”. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s been a sharp rise in 2 year yields since, fully erasing the fall seen after the last FOMC meeting. The RBA raised rates as expected but is being cagey about where to next. On today’s podcast we look at the likely path to the end of the year, but is the market overly optimistic about how quickly rates will come back down? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, August 01, 2022
Recession signs, RBA to hike, grains from Odessa
Tuesday 2nd August 2022There were further signs of a looming recession, with the US manufacturing ISM weakening, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI also lower and retail sales in Germany falling the most in 50 years. Oil is also falling, and the 2-10 yield spread in the US is close to being the most inverted it’s been since the year 2000. You’d think although these recession signs at a time when central banks are still pursuing aggressive hikes would be enough to upset the markets, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says they clearly haven’t got the message yet, with equities showing only minor falls today. The only positive news of the day was that the first shipment of grain has left from Odessa, but it’s anyone’s guess how long that will last. The RBA meets today, a 50-basis point rise is expected, and an increase in the bank’s inflation forecast this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, July 31, 2022
No inflation slowdown, just wishful thinking
Monday 1st August 2022For those hoping that inflation was peaking (anywhere), then Friday didn’t bring good news. PCE numbers in the US are rising, Europe’s CPI is climbing higher, whilst manufacturing from China has slowed. Clearly, we’re not out of the woods yet, with former US treasury secretary Larry Summers saying on Friday that the Fed hasn’t reached a neutral rate yet, and the fact that Jerome Powell has said they have is just “wishful thinking”. So, what does this all mean for the RBA tomorrow. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the expectation is there will be a 50 basis point rate hike, but Philip Lowe has spoken about a narrow path “clouded in uncertainty” – is there an outside chance he will see the need to move even faster as global inflation rates show few signs of easing? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, July 28, 2022
When is a recession not really a recession?
Friday 29th July 2022US GDP fell by 0.9 percent in Q2. On top of the 1.6 percent fall in Q1 that meets the technical definition of a recession. But Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen are keen to point out the downturn is not sufficiently broad based to be called a recession. Nonetheless it does signify a further weakening in the economy, which investors seem to be taking as a sign that the Fed won’t need to be as aggressive to counter inflation. NAB’s Gavin Friend says that although the market may be trying to lead the Fed in that direction, that’s not how Jerome Powell sees it and we can expect to see further significant hikes. Perhaps the same could be say for the RBA, with Australian retail sales continuing to rise and Treasurer Chalmers yesterday predicting inflation will peak at 7,75 percent, well above the RBA’s 7 percent forecast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, July 27, 2022
Fed hikes 75bp, no forward guidance
Thursday 28th July 2022The FOMC has met, they’ve pushed rates up 75 basis points and, whilst Jerome Powell said there would be no forward guidance, he has hinted at another big rise next time. Of course, it all depends on the data. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the take-outs from the press conference, which injected some animal spirits into the share market. They also look at yesterday’s Australian inflation numbers, and whether they have cemented in a 50-basis point rate rise by the RBA, or could it be more? Plus the Meta earnings release, which brought mixed news after the US market close. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, July 26, 2022
Shares down as consumers focus on the essentials
Wednesday 27th July 2022There gave been sizeable falls in US equities, mainly stemming from a cut to Walmart’s profit estimates. NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains how the rising price of food is leaving less money for people to spend on discretionary items, with more price increases to come. Meanwhile, Europe is hoping to cut gas consumption as Russia halves the supply of gas down the Nordstream pipeline. The EU has agreed a voluntary arrangement, but will be enough to build reserves for winter? Australia’s inflation numbers are out today – what will they be, and could they force the RBA to be more aggressive next week? The IMF has downgraded its global growth forecasts, noting an increasingly gloomy and uncertain outlook. Least but not least, the FOMC announces its rate decision just before tomorrow’s podcast. Tune in then for the full rundown, as it happens. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, July 25, 2022
Then there was one (turbine)
Tuesday 26th July 2022From Wednesday one of two operating turbines on the Nordstream pipeline will be switched off, effectively halving the existing supply, taking gas provision to Europe down to 20 percent of full capacity. There’s no clear evidence that Europe has a coordinated plan to deal with reduced supplies, as EU member nations argue over the equality of calls for reduced consumption. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the threat of the full blown weaponization of gas supplies later in the year is still very much a live issue. Meanwhile, markets are treading water ahead of the FOMC meeting middle of the week, the US GDP read after that and Aussie inflation numbers tomorrow. There’s also a slew of major earnings results over the next few days. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, July 24, 2022
Softer data, harder RBA
Monday 25th July 2022PMI numbers were much weaker than expected on Friday, particularly for US services, which fell quickly into a contractionary read of 47.1. The composite read for Europe also fell below 50. Will this mean central banks ease off the rate-hike pedal a little? The opposite is expected in Australia. Rodrigo Catril explains how NAB believes the lower-than-expected unemployment rate last week cannot be ignored, and it’s likely the RBA will move faster over the next couple of meetings. Vladimir Putin continues to hold a strong grip on energy and food supplies, offering a re-opened gas pipeline with constrained supply, and reopened grain delivery routes, offset by attacks on their principal port of departure. It’s a busy week ahead, including the Fed meeting, and more inflation numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, July 21, 2022
ECB makes it to zero
Friday 22nd July 2022As we predicted the ECB lifted interest rates by 50 basis points yesterday, up to zero percent. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this was more than markets had expected and explains there was a short-lived reaction on the bond markets. There was also disappointment in the central bank’s anti-fragmentation tool, which now has a name and a new acronym! Right now it’s light on detail and will countries like Italy be able to meet the criteria being set for its use, even though, with rising spreads with German bunds, they are the ones who really need it. In the US weaker jobs claims gave job that the labour market might be easing. Coupled with weaker than expected manufacturing data, there’s always the hope that the Fed won’t need to be so aggressive. PMI data today will give a further indication of how services and manufacturing are travelling, in the US, UK and Europe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, July 20, 2022
Gas will trickle, Draghi will go, ECB will hike
Thursday 21st July 2022There’s some confidence in the markets this morning, despite what seems to be a compendium of bad news for Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend says gas prices have fallen because Vladimir Putin has indicated that they will meet the reopening deadline for the Nordstream pipeline, but it’ll be at only 20 percent of its capacity. As discussed on today’s podcast, that might be enough to meet short term demand, but won’t allow Europe to build up stocks for winter. The ECB meets today and will outline plans for its anti-fragmentation tool. If markets aren’t impressed, it could bolster Italian bond yields, which have already pushed higher on growing uncertainty over Draghi’s tenure in the Italian parliament. We also look at what Philip Lowe said yesterday, ahead of August’s RBA meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, July 19, 2022
Markets set for a tougher ECB
Wednesday 20th July 2022Markets are preparing for a big rate rise by the ECB tomorrow. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says they are hiking when the expectation is that the Nordstream pipeline won’t fully reopen for some time, if at all. “No energy means no growth”, he says, with the likelihood that Europe is heading for a major recession. Is the central bank prepared for that? Politically, can Europe cope with it all? Also today, we look at what the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey had to say about UK rate expectations, ahead of inflation numbers later today. Plus, is the RBA preparing the market for a 75bps hike? And those flicking the off switch on Netflix - not as bad as expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, July 18, 2022
Oil rises as Saudi’s don’t budge, gas to Europe unlikely this week
Tuesday 19th July 2022The resumption in gas supplies to Europe could well be delayed, but perhaps Russia has a legitimate reason. A bigger move this morning has been the rise in the price of oil which NAB’s Ray Attrill will in part be down to Saudi Arabia’s refusal to increase supplies. Equities have fallen slightly, in part because of reports that Apple are downgrading their hiring and growth plans. US housing continues to be under pressure, with more data today. We also hear from the RBA’s Michelle Bullock today, who might give away some indication of rate expectation, perhaps. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, July 17, 2022
A Good Friday but a crunch week for Europe
Monday 18th July 2022US equities rallied on Friday as data releases showed some resilience in the economy, but is it enough to stave off recession? Probably not, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland on today’s podcast, but it will be enough to put to bed any ideas of a 100 basis point rate rise by the Fed this month. Also today, China’s fall in GDP was worse than expected, with continuing lockdowns making the official forecast for the year completely out of reach. The focus this week will be on Europe: what if the Nordstream pipeline doesn’t reopen? And, with so much uncertainty, NAB is predicting the US dollar will remain stronger for longer, which is likely to keep the Aussie dollar below 70 US cents for some time to come. Hear more about that in today’s podcast too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, July 14, 2022
Aussies Take Up Jobs as Draghi Tries to Quit
Friday 15th July 2022In a week of surprises (US CPI and labour market data, Canada’s interest rate rise, China’s lockdowns and the US$-Euro parity), yesterday saw a sharp fall in Australia’s unemployment rate. ‘It was our turn to surprise’, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent on this morning’s podcast. Unemployment has now fallen to a level below what the RBA was forecasting for next year, so does this mean we should expect a much larger hike at the start of next month? The big news this morning is the attempted resignation of Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, adding to the turmoil in Europe and adding to the US dollar strength. Next week is shaping up to be a turbulent week for the ECB, particularly if Vladimir Putin doesn’t turn on gas supplies as scheduled. Rising US PPI numbers added to the inflation story overnight. Today, US retail sales numbers are out, and the University of Michigan inflation expectations survey, which last month convinced the Fed to move rates higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, July 13, 2022
US Inflation rises and surprises, everything is in play
Thursday 14th July 2022US inflation has picked up more than expected, rising 9.1% in the year to June. The Fed’s Raphael Bostic said later that “everything was in play” when it came to a July rate rise. NAB’s David de Garis says, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what he meant. The Bank of Canada (BoC) had just raised rates by 100 basis points, more than had been expected, so had that paved the way for the Fed? It certainly makes the RBNZ’s 50 basis point hike seem a little constrained. The UK GDP growth was, unusually, helped by trips to the doctor, rather than to restaurants. Locally, Australian labour market data will be studied closely. Can the jobs market tighten any more and add to the pressure for faster hikes from the RBA? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, July 12, 2022
Freaking out over inflation
Wednesday 13th July 2022There’s no let-up when it comes to the downward expectations around the health of the global economy. US bond yields inverted further, suggesting a heightening of recession expectations. Oil prices fell sharply lower, suggesting demand is expected to fall further. US small business owners who expect conditions to improve in the next six months fell to minus 54%, the lowest in half a century. The confidence in the German ZEW survey hit a 10-year low yesterday. The NAB business survey also showed business optimism falling sharply. And NAB’s Gavin Friend reckons the prospect of an energy crisis in Europe is the real danger that is not yet fully reflected in market pricing. What will turn all this around? Central banks think a race to higher rates will fix the problem, with the Bank of Canada and RBNZ trying to outdo each other today on who can rate the fastest. So, imagine the reaction if US CPI numbers come out higher than expected today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, July 11, 2022
China flares up, Putin flexes more, US Dollar pushes higher
Tuesday 12th July 2022There’s a more cautious tone in the markets today, with US equities falling, bond prices rising, and the US dollar continuing on the up and up. Sentiment hasn’t been helped today by more lockdowns in China as COVID cases flare up. Ironically, Yuan loans have increased a fair bit. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this suggests, perhaps, that the economy will pick up once COVID cases have settled down. Meanwhile the Euro is very close to parity with the rising US dollar, as concerns grow about continuity of energy supplies. Already parts of Germany are starting to ration energy use. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, July 10, 2022
Healthy jobs data bad news for the economy
Monday 11th July 2022It is a bit weird that positive US jobs data would be seen as heightening the expectations of a recession, but that seems to be the case. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains on today’s podcast, the strength in the non-farm payrolls numbers of Friday did nothing to ease expectations that the Fed will continue with a rapid pace of rate hikes, and that could easily lead to a recession in the US. In Europe ECB speakers, like Robert Holtzman, are pushing for larger rate hikes even though rising energy prices (and shortages) are a very real prospect, with the next meeting this week. Meanwhile, recession prospects and a strengthening US dollar are playing havoc in emerging markets, as evidenced by the situation in Sri Lanka right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, July 07, 2022
A glimmer of hope, except for Boris
Friday 8th July 2022There have been slightly less recession concerns in the US overnight, with equities and commodity prices pushing higher and 10 year Treasury yields pushing back over 3%. Jobs have been front and centre, with weekly jobless claims not moving far, and non-farm payrolls adding more data to the picture later tonight. It’s been a torrid day in UK politics, with Boris Johnson resigning but not leaving Downing Street until a replacement is found. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the impact it’ll have on the UK economy. Whilst China is contemplating a massive spending spree for local governments to build infrastructure and get the economy back on track. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, July 06, 2022
Significant risk, still?
Thursday 7th July 2022The FOMC minutes are out, pointing to significant risk if inflation isn’t nipped in the bud. Markets are taking this as a sign that the Fed will lift rates more quickly, starting with a 50-75 basis point hike at the next meeting. This has added to concerns about the Fed inducing a recession, yet equity markets continue to climb. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the minutes are a little out of date, given the ISM read shows a fall in employment. We’ll get a clear indication of the jobless rate with initial claims for the US tonight. And Australia’s trade balance is the major release locally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, July 05, 2022
Oil Dives, Bonds Rally as Recession Fears grow
Wednesday 6th July 2022The Euro is getting closer to parity with the US dollar. In today’s podcast NAB’s Skye Masters points out that the Markets team had forecast parity by the end of the year, but it looks like it wil happen much sooner than that. The big moves overnight, including a sizable fall in oil and copper, show recession fears are front and centre, even though there’s been very little data, and what there has been has not been particularly bad news. Skye says days like today, where there are some contradictory shifts, demonstrate the importance of looking at the trends and focusing on the bigger picture. Tomorrow could easily see a reversal of the moves we’ve seen today. The US share market had a wide trading range today, showing just how much uncertainty there is in the direction of travel right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, July 04, 2022
Australia, faring better than most, but big hike still expected
Tuesday 5th July 2022The RBA meets today and the NAB expectation is that they will lift interest rates by 50 basis points. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether, by seeing inflation rising slower than many other parts f the world, whether we’ll see a lower peak and hence, less work needed by the RBA. There seem to be lots of hope lately that inflation might be showing signs of peaking, but the war rages on and oil and food supplies are still heavily constrained. The most telling reality check is that Germany trade has fallen heavily into deficit, for the first time since 1991 (and even then, only relatively briefly). It could be worse still if Russia restrains supply even further. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, July 03, 2022
Independence Day: Recession Resurgence
Monday 4th July 2022Recessions fears continue to rise, pushing bond yields lower. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains, the ISM manufacturing report in the US on Friday added to the fears, showing a contraction in new orders. It’s no longer an issue of supply constraints, demand is also softening. Yet inflation continues to rise. In Europe it grew from 8.1% year on year in May, to 8.6% in June. A big fall in copper prices also suggests an expected fall in demand. All this uncertainty is knocking the Aussie dollar down more than most currencies. This environment provides the ammunition for the RBA to make a large hike (50 basis points) tomorrow. Later in the week we’ll see if the tight labour market in the US is easing any, with the release of the monthly non-farm payrolls data. Prepare for a bumpy week again. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, June 30, 2022
And back to recession fears
Friday 1st July 2022Yields are lower in the US and Europe as recession fears grow, prompted by weaker than expected personal spending in the US, with a very strong chance of a negative Q2 GDP, which would mean the US economy was in recession. Whilst you might hope less consumption would mean falling inflation, NAB’s Tapas Strickland days there’s little sign of it yet. It wasn’t just the US receiving bad news. There was a flurry of negative data for Europe, even before the EDB lifts rates, and a particularly bad activity outlook report from New Zealand. So, if the US, Europe, UK and New Zealand all go into recession, does that mean Australia will follow? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, June 29, 2022
Understanding how little we understand
Thursday 30th June 2022Markets are confused as to where the global economy is heading. If investors were looking to the ECB Forum in Sintra for clarification, they will have been disappointed, with Jerome Powell confessing that recent experience has shown ‘how little we understand inflation’. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it doesn’t inspire you with confidence, when central banks are feeling their way. Meanwhile, all we can do is look for signs of softening economies, in the hope that falling demand will match up with lower supplies. On that basis a downward revision in US GDP could be seen as good news and Australian retail sales holding up the opposite side of the coin. There is a plethora of data today to add to the confusion, including the core PCE deflator, that the Fed has traditionally turned to as its measure of inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, June 28, 2022
Less US confidence, tough talking ECB
Wednesday 29th June 2022US equities switched direction overnight. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was a swift response to a weaker than expected consumer sentiment read in the US, with a particularly sharp fall in the expectations component. European yields are markedly higher today as Christine Lagarde spoke up the task at hand for the ECB, even though she continues to outline a hike of just 25 basis points in July. Today, Australian retail sales numbers are out, NATO continues to meet and the ECB forum in Sintra finally gets down to some meaty discussion. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, June 27, 2022
Heading for a choppy end to Q2
Tuesday 28th June 2022The volatility of the past few months means there is likely to be a greater need for rebalancing at the end of the quarter this time, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. Hence, we have seen a mixed picture overnight, with equities down, yields rising, the Aussie dollar suffering another fall and oil and iron ore rising in price, but each for differing reasons. Yet the overarching picture is one of uncertainty. Nobody is sure that central banks can combat inflation without instigating a recession, and nobody has a clear picture about how the Ukraine war will end. Once again, we try and map out a picture in the face of markets, geopolitics and data releases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, June 26, 2022
Is bad news good news these days?
Monday 27th June 2022These are strange times. Market sentiment improved at the end of last week because of weaker consumer sentiment and a downward revision in consumer inflation expectations. The hope is this means that central banks will need to do less to curb inflation, which is reducing recession fears. But as NAB’s Ray Attrill says, that could all change tomorrow. Or today. The war in Ukraine is escalating and the G7 resolve to do more against Russia is increasing. Also today, what the RBA’s Philip Lowe said in Zurich last week, and the fate of the Aussie dollar? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, June 23, 2022
Unconditional commitment, come what may
Friday 24th June 2022There have been big movements in bond yields overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s been a reaction to weak PMI data from Europe and the US. There were promising signs, though, particularly in Europe were rising inventory numbers suggest demand is softening and prices are weakening, which could lessen the need for aggressive hikes by the ECB. Nothing, it seems, will stop the Fed though, with Jerome Powell renewing his unconditional commitment to reducing inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, June 22, 2022
Markets split as Powell admits recession is possible
Thursday 23rd June 2022You take whatever you want from a senate hearing, so there have been mixed reviews of Jerome Powell’s performance in front of the Senate Banking Committee. Some picked up on his claim that the US economy was in a strong position, whilst others focused on his warning that a recession was a ‘possibility’. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend if that’s why we’re seeing sentiment split, from positive moves in US equities for most of the session, to a less positive outlook amongst bond markets and commodity traders, with the Aussie dollar bearing the brunt of it. They also discuss UK and Canadian CPI, and look ahead to the barrage of PMIs today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, June 21, 2022
Brighter days ahead
Wednesday 22nd June 2022We’ve just had the longest night of the year in Australia but the markets are focused on the light at the end of the tunnel! There is a lot of positive sentiment today, with NAB’s Taylor Nugent point to strong growth in US and European shares across almost all sectors. So, does this mean there’s an acceptance, once again, that inflation can be tamed without a recession, or perhaps there’s a belief that a mild one would be acceptable. Certainly the RBA’s Governor Lowe is seeing the good times returning before too long, even as he talks up the need for more rate rises. He outlined three reasons we’ll see inflation fall next year. Listen in to find out more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, June 20, 2022
Is the RBA preparing to go harder?
Tuesday 21st June 2022RBA Governor Philip Lowe is talking at an American Chamber of Commerce event this morning in Sydney. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether he could signal that interest rates could push higher than 2.5 percent, even though he said that was a possible level to reach on the 7.30 Report only last week. Certainly central banks seem to be drifting to more aggressive hikes, with one voting member at the Bank of England concerned that if they fail to follow the path of the Fed that could devalue the pound and add to the inflation woes. Today, with the US having spent Monday on their Junteenth holiday, markets are relying on central bank speak for direction, and there’s a lot of it over the next 24 hours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, June 19, 2022
Turning up the rhetoric
Monday 20th June 2022It’s almost like there’s a race to turn up the rhetoric between central bank speakers, signalling to markets that rates will keep going up and the increments might be quite large. Klaus Knott from the ECB, for example, is talking about a possible series of 50 basis point hikes, which is a long way from the gradualism we’ve been hearing about for most of this year. This morning NAB’s Rodrigo Catril also talks about the fate of the Aussie dollar, which has been impacted by falling commodity prices which itself, is driven by recession concerns. It’s a quiet start to the week, with bond and equity markets closed in the US for Juneteenth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, June 16, 2022
Markets go cuckoo as the Swiss clock a half percent hike
Friday 17th June 2022The positive reaction to yesterday’s FOMC market was short lived, with a much softer US dollar this morning and big falls in equity markets. NAB’s David de Garis says some of the uncertainty comes from a surprise decision by the Swiss National Bank to lift interest rates for the first time in 17 years – and not by a little bit, but by 50 basis points. It’s unsettling for those who assumed they’d wait for the ECB before reacting. By comparison, the Bank of England went for a 25 basis point rise, exactly as expected, but suggesting they will act forcefully, in necessary. Just not yet. Data overnight was largely second tier, but none of it was particularly encouraging. We also take a quick look at yesterday’s Australian employment numbers too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, June 15, 2022
A big step to the soft landing few believe will happen
Thursday 16th June 2022The FOMC announced a 75-basis point rise in interest rates in the US, with rates rising to 3.4 percent by the end of the year. Sat the press conference that followed Jerome Powell spelt out that the next rise would be 50 or 75 basis points at the next meeting. They continue to argue that all of this can be achieved with a soft landing, but as NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests, when has a central bank ever confessed to contributing to a recession. There was also an emergency meeting of the ECB yesterday, as they try to tackle fragmentation in the European union occurring from rising rates. Later on the Bank of England, expected to lift rates by 25 basis points. Also today, Aussie employment numbers and New Zealand GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, June 14, 2022
The day before the dots
Wednesday 15th June 2022The FOMC meeting tomorrow morning (Australian time) has been the focus of intense speculation this week, with the surprise inflation numbers last week suggesting a more aggressive stance by the Fed. Some commentators are even pointing to a 100-basis point rise. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the dot plots from this meeting – showing the Fed’s own expectations of the path of rises – will be more significant than the rate decision itself. Meanwhile, Japan and China are struggling to constrain yields and the BoE faces an easier job as the UK economy slows itself down, without too much central bank intervention. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, June 13, 2022
Markets Panic after US inflation surprise
Tuesday 14th June 2022There have been massive moves in financial markets since the release of the US inflation data on Friday. The US dollar is around the highest in decades, bond yields have shot up, in many cases to the highest in more than a decade, and the S&P500 has fallen to its lowest level in 15 months. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the concern is we are seeing inflation expectations de-anchoring. In other words, is panic creeping to the markets? The concerns are heightened by the meetings of the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan this week. The UK might not see big moves by the central bank, but only because the economy is already slowing and, after today’s GDP numbers, could well be the first into a recession. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, June 09, 2022
ECB set to turn up the dial
Friday 10th June 2022The ECB indicated overnight that they will lift rates at their July meeting, and if there’s no sign of a fall in inflation then a bigger hike might be necessary in September. This is the most hawkish the ECB has sounded, but Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend if it is enough? The prospect of more rate rises has accentuated concerns about the impact of southern European economies and Christine Lagarde’s proposals on how to deal with the problem failed to satisfy markets, with Italian and Greek bonds falling markedly again. Today’s CPI number for the US will be watched keenly. Has inflation peaked? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, June 08, 2022
Oil jumps, shares fall, inflation forecasts worsen
Thursday 9th June 2022There’s not much optimism in the air this morning. The OECD almost doubled their inflation expectations and slashed their growth forecasts, with the UK chosen for a particularly pessimistic outlook. NAB has revised its own forecasts for RBA rate hikes, outlined in today’s podcast. Oil prices have shot higher, with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril saying low inventories and the China reopening story means we haven’t reached the peak yet. The ECB meets later on. We know what to expect, although this is an environment where people change their minds at short notice. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, June 07, 2022
RBA, far from business as usual
Wednesday 8th June 2022It was only a month ago that RBA governor Lowe was suggesting a 25 basis point hike was business as usual, with the bank wanting to signal that things would return to normal with a standard adjustment in interest rates. As NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, it was only a few months ago that the RBA was suggesting rates weren’t going up until 2024. Things changed sharply yesterday. This morning we look at the market reaction, from bond yields and equities, to the cross-rate with the New Zealand dollar. There’s also discussion on the ECB, with the potential for bond purchases in southern European nations who will be hit hardest from rate hikes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, June 06, 2022
Rates jump, Boris’ near miss, RBA today
Tuesday 7th June 2022There’s been lots of action on the markets overnight, with rates pushing higher and, for most of the session, equities on the rise too. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says reopening news from China has helped push equities higher, but the prospect of rate hikes has seen that optimism diminish as the session neared the close. In currencies, the pound was the best performer in the G10, rising on the news of a leadership challenge for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He won the challenge and the pound started drifting down again, but there’s no guarantee he’ll stay in his job for long. The RBA is the main focus today, with NAB expecting a 25 basis point rise. There’s less urgency and, with more meetings, greater flexibility than with other central banks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, June 05, 2022
Get ready for RBA, ECB and US CPI
Monday 6th June 2022It might be a quiet start to a busy week, with the RBA and ECB meeting, and the US releases its CPI numbers at the end of the week. NAB’s Skye Masters says there’s divided opinion on how far the RBA will push tomorrow – anywhere from 25 to 50 basis points. We know the ECB is moving slower, but we can expect they’ll give further signals about when rates will rise and by how much. It all depends on the inflation outlook, of course, with CPI for the US out on Friday. Meanwhile, markets have been looking for any evidence that price rises might have peaked, but with the uncertainty over oil, the war and China’s lockdowns, it’s a bold call to say we are there yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, June 02, 2022
More oil, weaker jobs growth. Equities live on hope.
Friday 3rdJune 2022Today saw another session demonstrating the violent swings across all asset classes. Equities, that were well down yesterday, are well up this morning, despite an earnings downgrade from Microsoft. A chunk of the optimism comes from news that OPEC+ will increase oil production, even though oil prices themselves rose today. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we haven’t seen the same response in bond markets because of the likelihood that the Fed will keep rising, even beyond September, Lael Brainard said as much overnight. Tonight US non-farm payrolls will be watched keenly for signs of a softening job market or a reduction in wages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, June 01, 2022
Rates boosted as strong data support aggressive Fed hikes
Thursday 2nd June 2022If investors were looking for signs of weakness in the US economy, in the hope that it might moderate the expectations for a rapid path of rate rises from the Fed, they didn’t get it, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. Instead, the ISM manufacturing PMI for May came in higher than expected, job openings remained high and job quits haven’t really come down much. Nothing there to suggest the Fed needs to tread a more careful path, so bond yields have risen sharply and equities have fallen further. It’s a different picture in Australia, where a stronger GDP read is being taken as a sign that we might weather the storm better than most. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, May 31, 2022
EU sanctions, more in the pipeline?
Wednesday 1st June 2022The EU has agreed to an immediate ban on oil exported by sea from Russia, with a further ban on EU and UK insurance of Russian vessels exporting oil elsewhere. On today’s podcast NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses the tightening of restrictions and the impact on commodity prices and Europe’s rising inflation numbers – which exceeded expectations overnight. Meanwhile, a meeting between Biden and Powell today, representing two supposedly independent entities, demonstrates the dichotomy between controlling inflation and avoiding economic hardship. Today’s Australian GDP numbers will demonstrate how we have it better than most with 0.7% growth expected QoQ – although that figure would have been higher without a higher negative trade balance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, May 30, 2022
German inflation concerns, but equity markets refuse to freak out
Tuesday 31st May 2022There isn’t much in the way of good news today, but that doesn’t seem to matter as far as equity markets are concerned. German inflation was a big upside surprise and other numbers out of Europe suggested things are perhaps worse than imagined. Oil is rising sharply and could well surpass the previous peak. The war in Ukraine continues unabated with Russia making further inroads in the east of the country. China is easing lockdowns, but for how long? Yet European shares rose the Futures suggest the US will open higher on Tuesday too. NAB’s David de Garis talks about markets are looking on the bright side of the downside. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, May 29, 2022
A piggy bank backed recovery
Monday 30th May 2022Markets seem to be optimistic that the inflation wave can be ridden without us all crashing down on a rocky outcrop somewhere. So, are they right? NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil Dobbie this morning to discover the positive mood in the markets – particularly equities – driven by an absence of bad data and a hope perhaps that inflation will be tamed before central banks have to go the full way on interest rate rises. To what extent is demand holding up because people can dip into the extraordinary level of extra savings accumulated since the start of the pandemic. The non-farm payrolls data at the end of the week will be of interest, particularly in relation to wages. Locally, GDP numbers are out middle of the week. There are only three days this week when the US and UK markets are open, with month-end in-between. It could be a choppy week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, May 26, 2022
Equities and bonds markets divided
Friday 27th May 2022US equities rose sharply again today as more retailers gave positive outlooks, despite the earlier surprise form Walmart and Target. The optimism wasn’t impacted by another set of weaker data from the US. That presumably means there’s potential for damage if today’s consumption numbers surprise on the downside, or the PCI-deflator shows higher than expected inflation levels. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, the bond markets have not reacted the same way, positioned as they are for a series of rate hikes from the Fed and the question mark over a recession. The UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak tried to head off recession with the announcement of a large round of fiscal stimulus, funded by a one-off windfall tax on energy companies. But is it enough? And what happens next year? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, May 25, 2022
Markets accept rate hikes if they tame inflation
Thursday 26th May 2022The increasing belief amongst central bankers – particularly in New Zealand and the US – is that faster rate hikes will have a more marked impact on fighting inflation, giving more flexibility on how to handle the issue later in the year. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril isn’t sure that a couple more 50 basis point hikes from the FOMC will be enough. Supply chain issues remain for goods, and consumers need to be torn away from their rising consumption of services. Today, Australia’s Q1 Capex numbers are worth looking out for. Also today, if the world seems a worrying place right now (particularly if you’ve been listening to George Soros), calm yourself down with a picture of a fluffy cat. It worked for our host. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, May 24, 2022
Markets Snap Out of It
Wednesday 25th May 2022Yesterday’s upbeat sentiment was very short-lived, with a sharp fall in equities and bond yields today. A statement from Snap! about a worsening environment hitting revenue projections sent shares down across the board, but particularly advertising reliant tech stocks. That wasn’t the only bad news of the day. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland outlines in today’s podcast, there’s been a plunge in new home sales in the US, and a sharp fall in service PMIs in the UK. On the back of all of this, markets are expecting central banks to move a little slower on rate hikes, with the Fed’s Raphael Bostic warning policy makers to ‘proceed carefully’. We also look at the RBNZ decision today and Australia’s construction numbers this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, May 23, 2022
Hope springs eternal, well, for today anyway
Tuesday 24th May 2022A bounce back in equities and a better-than-expected IFO read from Germany. For today at least we’re seeing the return of some risk sentiment, as money piles into equities and bonds are sold off, pushing yields higher. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there wasn’t anything obvious to prompt this risk turnaround, except perhaps some positive words from Joe Biden about the potential easing of tariffs with China. That might paint a happier long-term picture, but supplies from China remain an issue, with Beijing seeing an increase in COVID cases. Oil continues to be pulled in all directions, even as it becomes clear that Russian oil sanctions are having little effect. It’s PMI day today – perhaps we’ll see some upside surprises to add to the upbeat sentiment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, May 22, 2022
New Australian government, same global concerns
Monday 23rd May 2022Will a new government have any market impact? NAB’s Skye Masters has been looking at how markets behaved, relatively speaking, in the first few months of a new government. Irrespective of history ,the reality is, of course, that global concerns are far greater this time round, with markets pulled between inflation concerns and recession fears. The Fed’s James Bullard doesn’t think a recession is the on the cards for the US and thinks inflation can be beaten by next year if they push rates fast enough this year. The UK demonstrated that, despite price pressures and very low consumer sentiment, people are still shopping. It shows the importance of data right now, as we all try to grapple with the direction of economies the world over. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, May 19, 2022
Who can slow down the slowdown?
Friday 20th May 2022There was no bounce in equities today after the big falls we saw yesterday. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its growing concerns about the US growth outlook, driven by earnings results and no uptick in economic data. Cisco has been the latest to downgrade their forecasts, blaming supply chains from the war and China’s lockdowns. But equity markets can normally see through short-term impacts, but not right now. Is the concern of over-reach by central banks part of the concern? And what does yesterday’s Australian employment data mean for inflation and the response from the RBA? There’s also a look at the minutes form the latest ECB meeting which ,again, highlighted the divide within the board about the need to act on inflation versus the impact on economic growth. Very much the question of the day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, May 18, 2022
Equities bomb as investors are reminded of inflation
Thursday 19th May 2022We’ve seen big falls in US shares as major retailers issue profit warnings, based on inflation and supply chain worries. Investors responded quickly. Had they forgotten that inflation was a thing? It was a timely reminder, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, that headline inflation hits consumer spending, so consumer staples and discretionaries will feel the pinch. The UK’s CPI hit 9 percent, but was in line with expectations. Canada’s inflation number was higher than anticipated, however. Australia’s wage growth remains relatively subdued, but the RBA’s focus will be on today’s labour market data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, May 17, 2022
China reopening, Americans shopping, Brits working
Wednesday 18th May 2022Equity markets have rallied today, buoyed by positive retail numbers for the US. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the sentiment really improved in APAC yesterday on news that Shanghai will reopen after three days of zero COVID infections. Markets turned when the Fed’s Jerome Powell spoke about pushing beyond neutral to curb inflation, but shares rebounded soon after. Britain’s job numbers would look fantastic at any other time but now – instead, lower unemployment and rising vacancies spells out further inflation risks which will encourage the BoE to move faster, perhaps. Even the cautious ECB has one member talking about a 50-basis point rate hike. Today Australia’s wage price index will be watched keenly because it could be influential in the RBA’s next move up in rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, May 16, 2022
Markets tossed back and forth in a sea of uncertainty
Tuesday 17th May 2022There’s been a fair bit of volatility in equity and bond markets overnight. Stocks are generally down after swings back and forth through the session. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s a continuing tension between the Fed talking up rate rises and whether that will prompt a recession. The data flow hasn’t offered anything encouraging. China’s retail sales were well down the NY State Manufacturing Index was pulled down by a fall in new orders, and the European Commission, understandably, lowered their growth forecasts and upped their inflation expectations. Meanwhile oil pushed higher and wheat prices ha e been hit by an export ban from India. Today US retail sales will show whether inflation is hitting demand yet and Christine Lagarde will have a chance to talk-up a July rate hike in Europe. Plus the minutes of the last RBA meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, May 15, 2022
One day when fears eased, for a bit
Monday 16th May 2022There was a slight reversal in sentiment on Friday, with the US dollar losing ground, equities climbing and bond yields rising. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says news of the easing of lockdowns in Shanghai this week might have provided an excuse for this switch around, but news over the weekend could make this change in direction very short lived, with China relinquishing its staging of the 2023 Asia Cup (soccer). In Europe, Sweden and Finland have both announced they intend to join NATO. If that wasn’t enough to upset Putin, Ukraine won the Eurovision Song Contest. Today, eye swill be on China’s fixed asset investments, industrial production numbers and retail sales, and on the continuing debate about whether the Fed (or any central bank) can deliver a soft landing from the inflation battle without forcing a recession. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, May 12, 2022
A world of worry
Friday 13th May 2022US equities continue to take a hit as inflation concerns continue and two of the biggest contributors – the war and China lockdowns – show no signs of abating. The war won’t go away, with Sweden and Norway now pushing for fast-tracked NATO membership. Reports suggest Beijing is now significantly in lockdown, which could further damage the Chinese economy and foreign trade. Here we are, says NAB’s David de Garis, wondering how low shares will go before we see anything like the Greenspan put come into play! A bigger worry for the UK is the cost of living, with March GDP numbers showing the economy retracted, and it will almost certainly be worse in April. Also today, we compare and contrast the direction of house prices in the UK and New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, May 11, 2022
US inflation numbers hit shares, bond markets more restrained
Thursday 12th May 2022US inflation numbers didn’t fall as much as hoped, in fact the core number is up, making the job for the Fed that little but harder. There’s been a sharp response on the share markets, particularly for tech stocks, but less of a reaction in the bond markets. On today’s podcast NAB’s Skye Masters says there’s been a flattening of the yield curve, suggesting that the expectation is that the Fed won’t need to push further in its terminal rate. Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde has finally joined the ECB’s July rate-hike brigade, and the pound has taken a hit as Britain threatens to unilaterally pull out of a key component of the Brexit agreement with the EU, threatening a trade war. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, May 10, 2022
A momentary lapse of reason
Wednesday 11th May 2022For a while today US shares were pushing higher, with tech stocks leading the way. Then as market close neared, prices started to fall and gains were effectively halved. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he is sceptical about hopes of a rebound, because the headwinds remain, particularly continued lockdowns in China, which will have a lag impact on the rest of the economy. How much of that lag will be reflected in US CPI later today? Meanwhile, the NAB business survey shows Australia is faring rather better than most of the world, right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, May 09, 2022
Stocks dive over fears of the perfect storm
Tuesday 10th May 2022Markets are clearly concerned that there will be no soft-landing. There’s the big fear that rate rises won’t cut demand enough to compensate for inflation driven by supply chain disruption. The result, we’re seeing inflation expectations remaining high, stocks taking big hits and the US dollar possibly the only safe haven there is. So, what will turn this situation around? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there has been no major data releases or news items to drive sentiment today, but risk-off uncertainty prevails. We have to wait for signs that inflation is starting to unwind. It might be way too soon, but signs of an easing of inflation in tomorrow’s US CPI would be very welcome. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, May 08, 2022
Are markets running scared?
Monday 9th May 2022Equity markets continued their falls on Friday, driven by concerns that the FOMC will let the economy slip into recession if it’s needed to keep inflation under control, just as the BoE warned last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says some Fed speakers have suggested a faster rate of tightening will be needed if supply chain difficulties aren’t corrected in a hurry. Given the China and Ukraine situations, that seems unlikely. Inflation concerns are rising everywhere. Even the ECB is expected to hike rates soon, and though the RBA’s path is somewhat slower than most there are concerns that they too might be underestimating the hit inflation could make and will need to correct quickly. All in all, a lot of investors will be looking eagerly for any signs that supply chain problems are improving. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, May 05, 2022
Market whiplash as sentiment takes a hit
Friday 6th May 2022Yesterday, as Jerome Powell gave the post-FOMC press conference, the US dollar strengthened, equities shot up and front-end bond yields fell sharply. Today, there’s been a swift reverse. The dollar is the highest in years, 10-year Treasuries are well over 3% and the share market has seen one of the biggest turnarounds ever. Does this suggest markets have a growing fear of a hard landing from the hawkish Fed rate path? NAB’s Gavin Friend says it is a challenging pathway for the Fed, but inflation will come down, hopefully, before causing too much turmoil in the economy. The risk to the economy was outlined by the Bank of England Governor Bailey, as they raised interest rates 25 basis points. Their forecasts make grim reading. And the Aussie dollar took a hit as risk sentiment soured. There will be a lot of interest in the projections in today’s Statement of Monetary Policy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, May 04, 2022
Powell knocks mega-rise prospects on the head
Thursday 5th May 2022The FOMC announced a 50 basis point rate rise for the US. As NAB’s Skye Masters notes in today’s podcast, the market response was fairly muted until Jerome Powell gave his press conference shortly afterwards. One comment, that they were not contemplating a 75-basis point rise, sent bond yields diving lower and equities shooting higher. Skye says markets had priced well ahead for a hawkish Fed, now they are taking some of that pricing back. But uncertainty hasn’t fallen away, with or inflation signs in New Zealand’s employment data, in Australian retail numbers and with another day of rising oil prices. We can expect a less hawkish Bank of England later, but it’s still likely they will raise rates even with the cost-of-living crisis being faced in the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, May 03, 2022
RBA loses a little patience
Wednesday 4th May 2022On today’s podcast NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through the RBA’s higher-than-expected rate hike yesterday. Taylor Nugent adds that it was clearly more than expected, given the rise in front-end bond yields after the meeting, buoyed on by more hawkish rhetoric from the RBA’s Governor Lowe after the meeting. Next it’s the FOMC, early tomorrow morning, with a 50 basis point rise still anticipated. The JOLTs numbers indicated the labour market is still very tight and the challenge will be to restrain wage inflation. Job numbers and wages data tonight and Friday might add fuel to the fire. This morning, lots of focus on wage inflation in New Zealand, with employment data out and a press conference from the RBNZ. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, May 02, 2022
Breaking the Three Percent Barrier
Tuesday 3rd May 2022US 10-year Treasury yields snuck over three percent overnight, albeit briefly. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says this could be the psychological baseline that sees rates grow higher. The latest ISM showed a slowing growth in US manufacturing, the result of lockdowns in China, but the Fed is still expected to push ahead with a significant rise later this week. Before that, the RBA meets today and the expectation is that they’ll raise rates by 15 basis points, but some see an argument to push them up to 0.5%. Also, today, a flash crash in Swedish equities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, May 01, 2022
The week central banks get serious
Monday 2nd May 2022Last week finished with stocks well down in the US, particularly amongst high-growth tech-stocks. The reason, growing inflation concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a 50-basis point hike from the Fed is very likely later this week, with growing market expectations that it could be followed by a 75-basis point rise next month. Meanwhile, there were further signs of growing inflation at the end last week that inflation, including a big rise in core inflation for Europe, rising producer prices in Australia and higher than expected wage growth in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, April 28, 2022
A fall in US GDP doesn’t signify recession, yet
Friday 29th April 2022The US delivered a sharp fall in GDP in the first quarter. It wasn’t expected and could naturally spark fears that recession could be coming to the US sooner rather than later. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says ‘beneath the hood’ the numbers showed that the US economy was still performing relatively well, with the numbers dragged down by a larger negative trade balance and lower inventories. As a result, equities continued to push higher, along with the US dollar. Inflation fears are rising in Europe though, with a higher-than-expected CPI read for Germany. These concerns pushed front-end yields higher and forced the Riksbank to unexpectedly lift their rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, April 27, 2022
RBA will hike next week
Thursday 28th April 2022Australian inflation rose more than expected yesterday. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun said it didn’t come as a complete surprise. NAB’s Business Survey has been showing rising input costs, and its likely inflation will rise till further in the next quarter. All that points to a high likelihood that the RBA will lift interest rates next week. Elsewhere, markets have had a temporary does of optimism, although NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a resolution has to be found for Europe’s energy problems. There just aren’t enough global supplies to completely cut out Russia. US GDP and German CPI are two significant data releases today, along with the business activity outlook for New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, April 26, 2022
Russia turns off gas for Poland and Bulgaria
Wednesday 27th April 2022Big market moves today, with US shares plummeting, bond yields also falling, and commodity prices rising sharply. European gas prices shot up on the news that Russia intends to turn off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria almost immediately, for not paying in Roubles. Whilst Europe debates whether they should ban buying Russian gas, perhaps the decision will be made for them. NAB’s Ray Attrill says recession fears on a global scale are also impacting sentiment, particularly as the war in Ukraine is clearly with us for some time, and China’s lockdown fears. Today, Australia’s CPI will be the numbers to watch. Could they rise enough to drive the RBA to a rise as soon as next week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, April 25, 2022
Front end Fed and China’s quest for the impossible
Tuesday 26th April 2022There’s been a strong risk-off sentiment to the start of the week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says equity investors belatedly “got the memo” on the Fed’s front-end loading for rate rises. Fears of more lockdowns in China, including Beijing, have added to the uncertainty, even though the fatality rates are low in comparison to many opened-up western nations. It seems China’s zero-COVID focus and the ongoing impacts of the Ukraine war are two issues that won’t slip away anytime soon. US GDP and Australian CPI will be two of the main focuses data-wise this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, April 21, 2022
European bonds rise sharply as some ECB members talk up rate schedule
Friday 22nd April 2022Markets are a little easier to understand today. Bond yields are back on the rise, given inflation expectations and more hawkish rhetoric from central banks. That’s hit equities. NAB’s Ken Crompton agrees that it’s a more text-book response to what we have been seeing, with equities and yields rising in tandem. There have been particularly strong moves for front end yields of European bonds, with some members giving a more hawkish timetable for rate rises. Today PMIs will be closely scrutinised to get a flavour of growth and conditions across Europe, the UK and USA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, April 20, 2022
A Temporary Change in Direction
Thursday 21st April 2022Bond yields have fallen sharply overnight, but that doesn’t mean inflation expectations are going away, or does it? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the Fed’s Beige Book, out overnight, highlights some examples of how inflation might be nearing its peak, but there are plenty to suggest otherwise. For example, Canada’s CPI and German PPIs, two sets of numbers showing prices are still rising, at quite a rate. NZ CPI numbers are out soon. Also today, a short-term reprieve for the Yen, whilst the Yuan falls to a six-month low. The Zero COVID approach had an impact on Japan’s export numbers, and will add to global inflation worries. And what about their attitude towards Russia? If you want a healthy dose of geopolitics, the French Presidential debate is also on today, ahead of the weekend election, and it’s close. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, April 19, 2022
Bond yields and equities both rise sharply. Please explain.
Wednesday 20th April 2022It’s not something that will continue for long, but US bind yields have risen sharply today, and so have equities. Which one will give in first? Equities have risen because of strong earnings results but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill observes in today’s podcast, there’s still a long way to go. Bond yields are rising as Fed speakers up the ante on the path of interest rates, with one even raising the prospect of a 75-basis point rise at the next meeting. Meanwhile, oil is down sharply today, with the IMF downgrading global growth forecasts, except in Australia. There’s also discussion on the RBA minutes and the fall in the Japanese Yen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, April 18, 2022
A whiff of moderation as Fed hurtles to 50 point hike
Tuesday 19th April 2022There’s a fundamental difference in the approach of the ECB and the Fed, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains on today’s podcast. Whereas the Fed is focused on inflation, the ECB is also concerning itself with growth. Could we see rising prices curtail that growth faster than anticipated? What about rising rates. The IMF has warned that rising rates will drive deleveraging that will have a marked impact on GDP growth. We also look at lockdowns in China and whether the rising bond yields in the US will offset any positive news to come from earnings results this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, April 13, 2022
Big hikes, more inflation, but bonds settle down
Thursday 14th April 2022Despite 50 basis point hikes by the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ over the last 24 hours, bond yields haven’t moved a great deal. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the market has taken a bit of a breather, which has offered a reprieve for stocks, with the NASDAQ climbing 2 percent at close. The path is certain for Canada and New Zealand, but it’s a less clear direction for the ECB, which meets tonight, with no moves expected as Europe struggles with rising energy prices and the impact of Russian sanctions. Similarly, the UK has just reported the highest CPI read in 30 years and it will only get worse, but the cost-of-living squeeze is making it hard for the Bank of England to look at big moves in a hurry. Today’s employment numbers for Australia will be keenly watched by the RBA, who will be looking at prospects for wage rises driven by an even tighter labour market. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, April 12, 2022
A very slight glimmer of hope on inflation
Wednesday 13th April 2022US inflation rose as expected, but there’s still been a reaction in the bond markets. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says investors latched onto the core CPI read coming in slightly softer than expected or feared. The subtly of the change wasn’t picked up by equity markets which fell, pushed lower by rising oil prices and the realisation that inflation is still here and could get worse. The NAB Business Survey yesterday demonstrated how Australia isn’t exempt, as Ivan Colhoun explains on today’; s podcast. Later on, two central banks who might well lift rates by 50 basis points – the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, April 11, 2022
Stocks hit as yields rise higher still
Tuesday 12th April 2022US bond yields continue to career higher. ‘IT was another blistering night’ says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, with 10-year Treasury yields reaching a three-year high. With no new news, he says, it’s a continued reaction to the hawkish Fed agenda. But could it all backfire? The Fed has never had successive 50 basis point rises. There are still concerns that they could spark a recession if they move too quickly, particularly as supply chain difficulties won’t be resolved by monetary policy. And the rising COIVD cases in China suggest there will be more supply constraints to come. With inflation front and centre of everyone’s attention right now, US CPI figures are obviously the numbers to watch for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, April 10, 2022
Rates push ever higher as food prices soar
Monday 11th April 2022Although there’s clearly volatility in markets, NAB’s Ray Attrill says the common thread is that yields are still rising. Even if the inversion in the curve has dissipated, the fact remains 10-year yields are at multi-year highs as inflation fears grow and central banks respond. Food prices have risen almost 13 percent in one month, even worse if you cook with vegetable oil. This might be reflected in China’s CPI numbers today, and for the US mid-week. The war will have a strong influence on this, and there are no signs it will dissipate anytime soon. Meanwhile several central banks meet this week, including the ECB. Markets are priced for a 50-basis point rate hike by the Bank of Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, April 07, 2022
Consumers still spending despite all the hike talk
Friday 8th April 2022As bond yields continue to rise, particularly in the US, it seems there’s not much impact from all the hike talk on consumer spending just yet. Consumer credit numbers in the US shot up in February, much of it revolving credit. Will that just add to the Fed’s concerns and the accelerated rate of hikes, which has seen bond yields push ever higher. Ken Crompton says NAB’s forecast is for 10 yields to reach 3 percent by the end of the year, but there is still considerable room for movement. Yesterday’s Australian balance of trade numbers were a surprise, with much higher imports pushing February’s surplus down by $4.5 billion from the month before. Whilst the ECB minutes overnight reflect a more hawkish approach, but a bank still heavily divided on the road to take. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, April 06, 2022
Fed to slash balance sheet sooner rather than later
Thursday 7th April 2022Bond markets have reacted sharply and briefly to the FOMC minutes this morning, which suggested the Fed might start slashing its balance sheet sooner rather than later. This added to the sentiment expressed by Lael Brainard earlier in the week, which saw the yield curve steepening a little. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend what these moves are telling us, and why the impact has cut short the strengthening of the Aussie dollar. Maybe strong trade numbers today will turn it around again. There’s also discussion about German factory orders and tonight’s ECB minutes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, April 05, 2022
No patience left at RBA
Wednesday 6th April 2022The RBA has lost its patience and wants to move fast, but how fast and how far? On today’s podcast NAB’s Ivan Colhoun says it’s unlikely we’ll reach the 3% terminal rate that markets are anticipating, or at least with the expected rapidity. Taylor Nugent – new to the Morning Call – looks at the market response to words from the Fed’s Lael Brainard overnight, who talked about balance sheet reduction, possibly as soon as next month, at a faster pace than before. The Fed minutes today might add more substance to interest rate expectations, whilst two members of the RBA front a senate hearing today, where questions will not doubt be asked about the sudden pivot in policy signalling. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, April 04, 2022
Crimes, curves and patience
Tuesday 5th April 2022The hope of peace in Ukraine is slipping away as more evidence of war crimes emerges, suggesting diplomacy could take some time. The Euro fell as expectations rose for more sanctions against Russia, which also pushed oil higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says negotiations are continuing though and we shouldn’t underestimate the chance for some sort of truce to be found. Meanwhile, inflation remains a global concern, particularly in the US. The inverted yield curve is also a cause for consternation. Tapas suggests the FOMC should have moved sooner on rates and speculates that the RBA will be watching and learning. Will the word ‘patience’ disappear from today’s RBA statement? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, April 03, 2022
Fed ready for a big move, ECB staring inflation in the face
Monday 4th April 2022Non-farm payrolls gave the hawks at the Fed the ammunition they wanted, and bond yields have responded. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the data on Friday has cemented in the expectation of a 50bp rate hike at their next meeting. The ECB is still reticent to talk about bringing their schedule forward, even though Friday’s Eurozone inflation numbers were a lot higher than expectations. Today we get to hear how the BoE’s Andrew Bailey expects to balance rising inflation against an economy that has already slowed (possibly to zero). And what of the RBA? Will tomorrow bring a signalling of a faster path to a rate hike? Also today, has oil fallen too far? The situation in Ukraine looks like it won’t end soon, yet oil is less than 10% higher than before the invasion. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, March 31, 2022
Biden dips into reserves, Putin demands Roubles from today
Friday 1st April 2022There’s a hefty emphasis on oil and gas this morning. Putin is demanding payment in Roubles from today, but there seems to be some caveats and so the impact isn’t as pronounced as you might expect. More significantly, President Biden has announced a six-month commitment to a daily draw down from the US strategic oil reserves. Will it be enough to make a difference? NAB’s Ken Crompton says the markets seem to think so, with a significant fall in the WTI price this morning. Also today, we look at China’s PMIs, which are firmly in contraction territory as they pursue their zero-COVID policy. And tonight, non-farm payrolls, where the focus might be more on wage inflation than the jobs numbers themselves. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, March 30, 2022
Peace hopes fade, European inflation soars
Thursday 31st March 2022There was hope in market pricing earlier in the week that some sort of resolution over Ukraine could be sought soon. But those hopes faded when Russia started bombing regions it had indicated it would pull back from. Today, oil prices are back up and US equities have been hit hard. It’s not all down to Ukraine though. Inflation rates in Germany and Spain are through the roof. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, they have risen more in a month than Australia has seen in a year. That presents a special challenge for the ECB, who have to control inflation in an environment where consumers will be facing a cost-of-living squeeze. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, March 29, 2022
Europe boosted by peace hopes
Wednesday 30th March 2022Markets have responded perhaps a little too favourably to peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey overnight. There wasn’t a concrete outcome, yet the Euro is riding high, stocks have risen sharply and bund yields are up. NAB’s Ray Attrill says even if some sort of resolution is found soon, sanctions will remain for some time to come. Meanwhile, front end yields continue to rise in the US as more Fed speakers talk-up the prospect of a 50 basis point hike at the next FOMC meeting. We saw a brief 5-10 year yield inversion, but blink and you missed it. Also today, NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through Josh Frydenberg’s pre-election budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, March 28, 2022
The divided story of rate expectations
Tuesday 29th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s continued volatility in US bond markets, with significant flattening of the yield curves. Is this flagging a future recession? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the direction of travel is looking that way, although it’s too early to tell. But the rise in 2-year yields shows that markets are expecting a more aggressive stance by the Fed, whereas in the UK yields are falling after the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey indicated a less aggressive stance on rates given the cost of living squeeze the country is facing. Also today, how the Bank of Japan is tackling rising bond yields, the reasons behind today’s sharp fall in oil, what will Australia’s retail numbers show today, and what to expect from today’s budget (beyond what has already been made known). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, March 27, 2022
Ditching bonds like they are going out of fashion
Monday 28th March 2022The sell-off of bonds continues, with a further spike in yields at the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s because there is heightened expectations that the Fed will lift rates even faster than previously thought, possibly even four 50 basis point rises this year. Yet the share market – in the US and Europe – continues to rise. We look at why in this morning’s podcast, plus Shanghai in lockdown, how the Yen has lost its safe haven status and the ongoing impact of the war in Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, March 24, 2022
American markets doing well because they are not Europe
Friday 25th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It's a very mixed and confusing day today. “It’s rare that you see equities and bond yields rise at the same time”, says NAB’s David de Garis, but maybe markets have optimism that the Fed’s aggressive stance will put the inflation genie back in its bottle. Or investors are a little unsure where to park money right now. Or, perhaps, investors see anything in the US to be safer than Europe, where inflation will be driven higher through fuel shortages. Meanwhile, PMIs are a little softer but still in growth territory, most notably for services in UK and the USA, a reflection of a braver stance on post-COVID re-openings. The major currency move has been a fall in the Yen, reflecting the widening gap between yields between Japan and the US. In amongst all the confusion, the Aussie dollar is holding its own. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, March 23, 2022
Getting ready to Ruble
Thursday 24th March 2022Bond yields have come back a fair bit today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s just a recalibration after the massive hikes we’ve seen over recent days. The tone from the FOMC certainly hasn’t changed. Meanwhile oil prices have risen sharply, in part because President Putin has threatened that Europe should pay for gas in Rubles, rather than dollars or Euros. If it’s an attempt to get the West to roll back on sanctions he might be disappointed, with Biden meeting with the EC, NATO and G7 over the next day or two, where the one question on everyone’s mind will be, “what do we do next?” And for an early sign of the impact of the war on Europe, the UK and USA, flash PMIs are out later on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, March 22, 2022
Markets support the Fed’s balancing act
Wednesday 23rd March 2022Just three weeks into March and US two-year bond yields are up 74 basis points, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, on today’s Morning Call. Will the Fed be happy to see the market responding in this way, particularly as there’s less growth later in the yield curve? Does that suggest there are some concerns about whether Fed can keep inflation in check, without causing a recession. What does history tell us about the chances of that happening? Meanwhile the Yen is a casualty from all this bond action, with their central bank a long way off any sort of tightening. And the rise in oil prices has stalled today, we look at the reason. Today, UK’s CPI is the main set of numbers. Inflation and more of it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, March 21, 2022
Powell talking faster than fast
Tuesday 22nd March 2022Bond yields have moved sharply higher as markets expect the Fed to move faster on rate rises and, potentially, drawdowns on the balance sheet. After Jerome Powell spoke overnight, NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s now a much stronger expectation that April’s meeting will see a 50 basis point rate hike and, perhaps, the same again at the next meeting. Could the ECB also be stepping up its plan of action? Christine Lagarde talks later today. Inflation worries won’t be helped by the rise in oil prices, with no obvious short-term solution. An increase in production from Saudi Arabia seems unlikely because they are upset about the US withdrawal of arms sales over the war in Yemen. The Ukraine crisis looks set to continue, and any step up in action by Russia could increase the extent of sanctions including the possibility of an oil ban by the EU. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, March 20, 2022
Peace hopes and understanding
Monday 21st March 2022Nobody really knows how the war in Ukraine will play out, but we kick off the week with reports from Turkey that an understanding between Ukraine and Russia might be closer. There’s even speculation that the two leaders will meet face to face – obviously at opposite ends of a very long table. On today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the market optimism right now, with equity markets rising despite the prospect of many rate hikes this year. Supply chain disruption looks set to be with us for longer, with more lockdowns in China over the weekend. But it's the words from Fed speakers that will be the focus of attention at the start of the week – will they support the hawkish stance of the FOMC last week or try to rein back a bit? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, March 17, 2022
BoE far more cautious than the Fed
Friday 18th March 2022After a very hawkish Fed yesterday, the Bank of England has presented a much more guarded approach for the rest of the year, whilst delivering the third interest rate in a row. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about why the central bank has a reluctance to signal too much right now. Meanwhile, are markets concerned that the Fed is moving too fast? There’s discussion about Aussie unemployment numbers too and what the strong numbers mean for the RBA. The Bank of Japan is the next central bank, but inflation driven by a tight labour market is much less of a concern for them. Oil prices are rising as hopes of a rapid end to the war dissipate but there are still irons in the fire, including talks between President Xi and President Biden. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, March 16, 2022
A far from transitory Fed
Thursday 17th March 2022The Fed has met, they’ve lifted rates in the US, and given a hawkish outlook for rate increases this year and next, with a terminal rate of 2.8 percent by the end of next year. The statement and subsequent press conference left some questions unanswered. NAB’s David de Garis points out how they plan to get inflation under control without unemployment rising, even by the end of 2024. Markets reacted swiftly to the announcement, with sharp rises in front end yields. The Bank of England meets later today, and inflation numbers overnight highlight the size of the task ahead for the Bank of Canada. And oil prices are falling as hope remains that a solution can be found to the war in Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, March 15, 2022
China hit by COVID and Russian relationship
Wednesday 16th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Chinese equities have been hit hard again today, despite data showing very strong retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s a mix of increasing COVID cases, causing more lockdowns, and China’s position over the Ukraine war. They want to keep the peace with Russia without attracting sanctions from the west. Is it a sign of the shifting balance of influence that China is negotiating with Saudi Arabia to buy oil in Yuan? Besides the war and COVID, inflation is still a major concern, with the FOMC meeting in less than 24 hours. 25 basis points is more or less locked in, but it’s the rate of future rises and the associated commentary that will attract attention in these uncertain times. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, March 14, 2022
Will China pick a side?
Tuesday 15th March 2022China and the US have been meeting, with the hope that talks can resolve the war in Ukraine. But China is showing little sign of offering total support for the west. NAB’s Tapas Strickland wonders whether they’ll need to, with talks between Russia and Ukraine at least offering the opportunity “for an off-ramp” from the conflict. Oil prices have fallen today, mainly because of further lockdowns in China as the country continues to pursue a zero-COVID strategy. That’ll add to supply chain problems, which will further add to inflation pressures. No surprise then that bond yields have risen sharply ahead of the FOMC later this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, March 13, 2022
Getting close to the edge
Monday 14th March 2022Fighting got very close to the Polish border over the weekend, with Russian attacks on a training base. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s hard to see the volatility across all asset classes calming down as the uncertainty in Ukraine remains. Although talks are ongoing there has been little grounds for hope so far. This makes it all very tricky for the FOMC, whose members will be submitting their dot point predictions for future rate rises, in an environment where inflation is rising and consumer confidence is falling. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, March 10, 2022
ECB taper talk, while Lavrov tells-tales
Friday 11th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The war isn’t going to end anytime soon. That was clear with the high-level peace talks on Turkey breaking down after just 90 minutes, acting as nothing more than a conduit for untruths. That’s partly why we’ve seen a shift back in sentiment. The risk-on mood yesterday was a one-off. On the podcast today NAB’s David de Garis talks through the other big turnaround – the attitude of the ECB, who have speeded up their tapering schedule and the opened the door to earlier rate hikes. As a result, there have been sharp moves in peripheral European bonds, such as Italy, Greece and Portugal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, March 09, 2022
Risk on, but war still on too
Thursday 10th March 2021Looking at the markets this morning you might be mistaken for thinking Vladmir Putin had resigned, but sadly not. The war is still on, and just as messy as ever, but equities have risen, oil is down and bond yields are rising. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks us through this broad reversal in risk sentiment, which he says is being driven by a number of factors, but nothing concrete. There’s also discussion about the ECB meeting today, and the EU’ s plans to issue bonds to reduce dependency on Russian resources. Plus, did Philip Lowe’s speech yesterday indicate a rate rise from the RBA this year was more likely, or less? And US inflation numbers tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, March 08, 2022
A glimmer of hope
Wednesday 9th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Markets have been encouraged by a possible solution to the Ukraine crisis. The Kremlin had suggested a raft of measures, including a ban on NATO membership. Today, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy suggested NATO wasn’t a priority. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the hope that a peaceful solution might be possible saw a strong risk-on mood hitting markets – although the Aussie dollar is down. Commodities continue to rise, of course. And the EU is meeting this week to discuss the issuance of bonds to cover spending on arms and to end a reliance on Russian energy. Also on today’s podcast, NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through yesterday’s NAB Business Survey. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, March 07, 2022
Day 12 brought more volatility, the search for safety
Tuesday 8th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Day 12 of the war in the Ukraine brought more violence and uncertainty. Russia’s offer of a temporary ceasefire so residents could escape was given short shrift when it was clear the escape route was to Russia or Belarus. It was a strong risk-off session across all asset classes, with Brent getting over $139 for the first time since 2007. The Aussie dollar has lost a lot of ground, with NAB’s Ray Attrill saying the US dollar is now the pre-eminent safe-haven currency. Even the Yen has failed to perform its traditional safe-haven role, demonstrating how far and wide the impact of the oil price shock is having on global markets, with no signs of a way out anytime soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, March 06, 2022
Oil keeps increasing, Aussie rises above the confusion
Monday 7th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9For a while over the weekend it seemed like Vladimir Putin was suggesting the west had already declared war with it imposition of sanctions, but, in context, he was really saying it was like a declaration of war, but a no fly zone would be a declaration of war. Whilst that’s a relief, we can all do without that sort of escalation, the uncertainty of the future outcome remains and we can expect more volatility this week as the fighting continues. Today Tapas Strickland talks about the impact of rising commodity prices and the response from central banks, including the ECB that meets this week. Australia meanwhile, seems to be enjoying the benefits of distance from the trouble in eastern Europe, with the Aussie dollar almost 5 percent up on the Euro over the last week. How long will this last? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, March 03, 2022
Powell, Putin and Prices
Friday4th March 2022The Aussie dollar was one of the winners today, even as the US dollar lurches to highs not seen since the early days of pandemic. It’s been driven by demand for coal and iron ore, as almost all commodities respond to the shock of supply cuts from Russia and Ukraine. Jerome Powell was back on Capitol Hill today, again reiterating the need to control rising inflation. Jobs continue to be part of the problem (with the ISM read overnight showing a fall in services employment) along with rising commodity prices. NAB’s Gavin Friend points to studies from the NY Fed, one noting that the global supply chain pressure index eased in February , a sign, he says, that global supply chains will repair. The question is, how quickly? The ISM numbers overnight didn’t show any improvement. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, March 02, 2022
Hiking away from the fighting
Thursday 3rd March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It almost seemed like business as usual for markets overnight. Equities rebounded strongly and demand dipped for bonds, pushing yields higher. As NAB’s David de Garis remarks, it all seems a little topsy-turvey. Investing in shares doesn’t seem a logical choice as the Fed chairman indicated that the path of rate rises in the US will continue unabated, just as the Bank of Canada lifted its rates for the first time since the pandemic. But away from equities, there are still clear signs of disruption from Ukraine, with oil prices continuing to increase, coal rising higher and wheat prices soaring. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, March 01, 2022
Ukraine war ratchets up risk sentiment
Wednesday 2nd March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9'What a night for market moves', says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, on today’s Morning Call. With no sign of an easing of the conflict in Eastern Europe, risk sentiment has risen sharply in the last 24 hours, with bond yields way down, oil peaking higher, the US dollar gaining strength and huge volatility on equity markets. Oil prices are rising even without export bans because trade houses are reluctant to touch Russian cargo. Today we look at how the uncertainty will translate to central banks. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun says the RBA continues to be patient, given that inflation is not as strong as elsewhere. Like all other central banks they will be factoring in the uncertainty from the war. The Bank of Canada might moderate their plans tonight on that basis, and Jerome Powell will be asked for his approach when he fronts up to the House Committee in the US later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, February 28, 2022
Moderate contagion, so far
Tuesday 1st March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The sanctions against Russia are taking their toll on Russia, with moderate contagion to the rest of the world, but its early days. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the reaction in markets highlights how much more Europe is exposed, with increasing demand for US dollars. On today’s podcast there’s discussion about the impact on markets, who is exposed to risk, whether prices reflect an event which could rapidly escalate, the role China will play and the fate of the Aussie dollar in the midst of all this. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, February 27, 2022
A swift response to the Ukrainian crisis
Monday 28th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There will be a shift back from the optimism of Friday, when markets were responding to the weaker-than expected sanctions being imposed on Russia. That’ll change today as access to the Swift system is denied to most Russian banks. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this, and the limitations on Russia’s central bank to make use of its foreign reserves, will have a profound effect on their economy. In today’s podcast he talks through the flow-on effects for other economies, including Australia and emerging markets. Can we expect a stronger US dollar for longer? And how will it impact the roadmap for central banks? And should we be seriously contemplating the risk of stagflation in the global economy? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, February 24, 2022
Putting the Squeeze on Putin’s Squalid Venture
Friday 25th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The Russian President surprised many with his broader attack on Ukraine yesterday. The UK Prime Minister called it Putin’s ‘squalid venture’, before announcing further sanctions, repeated by Joe Biden, including freezing more bank assets, stopping Russian trades in pounds and dollars, and ending a dependency on Russian oil and gas. The aim is to squeeze Russia out of the global economy, but that’s a long-term game in what could be a very short war. Today NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the market impact, the influence of China, the inflation concerns and the likely response by central banks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, February 23, 2022
Don’t Panic!
Thursday 24th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy has the words ‘Don’t Panic’ emblazoned on the front. NAB’s David de Garis is more familiar with the words of Lance Corporal Jones, who frequently offered the same advice. It seems markets have taken that advice for now, perhaps because there’s been no significant deterioration in the Ukraine crisis. Still, oil prices are up, and equities are down, but the focus has, by and large, switched back to concerns about inflation. The RBNZ only lifted rates 25 basis points, but they have raised the terminal rate and expectations for a faster track this year. Australia's slower wage inflation came in as expected, supporting the RBA’s more patient approach, whilst more ECB members are getting nervous about inflation growth in Europe. Rising prices are hitting consumer confidence there. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, February 22, 2022
Biden's sanctions first step against Putin’s ‘invasion’
Wednesday 23rd February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The news over Ukraine overnight is confirmation from Putin that he supports separatists who want to take control over the wider Donbass region, which could see Russia invading further into Ukrainian territory. The market response so far has been fairly measured, but an escalation could see the West move beyond the current sanctions. One of those sanctions is shelving approval for the Nord stream 2 pipeline, which arguably hurts western Europe more than anyone. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the geopolitical uncertainty could dissuade the RBNZ from contemplating a half percent rate hike today. Australia’s wages data is out later today. Whatever the final number it will be well below the rises seen elsewhere, perhaps justifying the RBA’s more patient stance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, February 21, 2022
Putin supports Donbass powder keg
Tuesday 22nd February 2022Will Putin’s declared support for separatists in the Donbass region be the false flag event the West has been concerned about? Does that mean an invasion is imminent? Market reaction hasn’t been strong so far, except for a rise in oil prices, but maybe that’ll change as the US returns from the President’s Day holiday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the actions overnight has certainly reversed the optimism yesterday, when a diplomatic solution looked more hopeful. Meanwhile, PMIs in Europe were really strong, which will add to the inflation pressures and could lead to a more hawkish ECB. US PMIs are out later on, and we’ll Christopher Kent from the RBA later today. What’s he going to say about QE and interest rates? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, February 20, 2022
More war talk adds to a storm of uncertainty
Monday 21st February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s more uncertainty in the markets as tensions mount still further over Ukraine. Words from Biden and Johnson won’t help for the start of this week, alongside news that Russian troops on military exercises in Belarus are not going home anytime soon. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says conflicts often have a short-lived impact on markets, but wonders whether this will be different, given the scale of it and the inflationary impacts it would have on Europe. Meanwhile, words from the Fed’s John Williams over the weekend have reduced the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate hike in the US next month. And for those looking of hard numbers there’s a plethora of PMIs, except the US, where it's President’s Day today. Plus why NZ bonds could be in demand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, February 17, 2022
Ball of confusion as Biden and Putin fight war of words
Friday 18th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There are mixed signals in the markets today. Equities have taken a hit from continued uncertainty over Ukraine, but oil prices are down, perhaps because negotiators are close to agreeing a deal over Iranian oil. NAB’s David de Garis says many traders will also be assessing their positions ahead of a long weekend in the US. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting seems to have shortened the odds for a half percent rate hike from the Fed, although there’s been a lot of strong US data since that meeting. Words from the ECB’s Philip Lane have reinforced the idea that the bank is rethinking its position on holding off on rate rises. Today’s main stats are the retail numbers for the UK, which are unlikely to bounce back as quickly as we saw in the US yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, February 16, 2022
Oil rising whilst Putin sits tight
Thursday 17th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There are no signs of inflation abating just yet, or of Vladimir Putin pulling his troops from the Ukraine border. That means there’s more caution in the markets. On today’s Morning Call NAB’s David de Garis talks through the likely market response if Russia does invade and Biden responds with sanctions. Meanwhile, inflation is creating enough of a concern for everyone, with CPI up in the UK, South Africa and Canada, with rising US retail sales adding to the pressure in the US. In Europe a couple of ECB members are starting to get nervous about house prices. Only in China do they seem to have inflation under control, and the potential for more easing by the central bank. Whilst in Australia the Labour Market data will be the main focus this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, February 15, 2022
Risk-on as Putin backs-off (a bit)
Wednesday 16th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s a bit more positivity in the markets today, certainly since yesterday morning, because Russia hasn’t invaded Ukraine, and talks continue. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there is still plenty to be cautious about. NATO can’t confirm Russian troops have moved from the border, as Putin had claimed, and the central issue of Ukraine’s right to NATO membership remains unresolved. Still, markets have taken it as good news, offsetting any inflation concerns that should have arisen from US PPI numbers yesterday. UK jobs numbers also showed wage pressures and today, loads more, inflation and producer prices for many parts of the world. We also get to see the RBA’s Debelle and Bullock in front of the senate tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, February 14, 2022
Putin on the brink, Fed ‘out of sync’
Tuesday 15th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The rhetoric is still that Russia is on the brink of war with Ukraine, although, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, markets took some comfort from a television event that saw Putin saying he supported continued diplomat efforts with the west, but have since repsnded to military movements that suggest something is about to happen. For a while, the talk of more talks allowed a little more focus to return to central banks, with the Fed’s James Bullard again calling for a front loading of hikes because the policy is out of sync with the economy. Today, with inflation still on the rise just about everywhere, including New Zealand, US producer prices will be watched keenly later today, along with UK wages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, February 13, 2022
War talk rocks markets, all eyes on the East
Monday 14th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There was a swift response on Friday to speculation that Putin would launch an attack on Ukraine as soon as this week. The US dollar gained ground at the expense of the Euro, whilst bond yields, which had risen on the upside inflation surprise on Thursday, came falling down again. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says more negative new over Ukraine will add to the strength of the US dollar, but similarly, markets could slowly reverse their positions if weeks go by without any resolution. Meanwhile, second guessing the actions of central banks remains a focus on markets, with Aussie bond yields shooting up on Friday as Philip Lowe suggested a rate rise this year was “consistent with their central scenario”. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, February 10, 2022
High stakes, higher prices, bigger hikes?
Friday 11th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Markets reacted swiftly to a higher-than-expected rise in the US CPI. NAB’s Gavin Friend says its unlikely that the Fed will raise rates by half a percent in March, even though many now expect it and the Fed’s Bullard has said he isn’t opposed to the idea. Gavin’s point, if they were to do that, why haven’t they stopped QE dead in its tracks? Today’s podcast looks at the market reaction in the US and yield movements in Europe. There’s been more discussion about Ukraine, but one British former diplomat has described the whole thing as a Russian fishing trip. And new Yuan loans have seen a heap of extra money piled into the Chinese economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, February 09, 2022
Bond sell-off on hold ahead of US inflation numbers
Thursday 10th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Bond yields have fallen back a bit a little ahead of US CPI numbers later on today. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis what he will be looking for in the data, to give a clearer picture of where inflation is heading. In particular, are we seeing signs that supply chain difficulties are easing? Central bank speakers are out in force, but its pretty clear now that few have a clear picture about the path beyond the next hike. Equities are up for a second day, driven by positive earnings, but with uncertainty over forward guidance they too will be susceptible to a move in tonight’s CPI. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, February 08, 2022
China pushes back green agenda, UK heading for recession?
Wednesday 9th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9In the absence of any big statistical releases markets are treading water ahead of US CPI numbers later in the week. US 10-year Treasury yields hit a two-year high for a short while, whilst equities have been choppy in face of all the uncertainty. How much will the Fed lift rates in March? What will be the end rate? NAB’s Ray Attrill says focus is now also shifting to the actions of the ECB. Even though Christine Lagarde is still talking about a gradual shift in policy, other ECB members are not so sure and European bond yields have been rising accordingly. Much of the focus today will continue to be on inflation prospects, in the NAB Business Survey and in the NFIB small business survey. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, February 07, 2022
Markets still guessing the path of inflation
View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9In the absence of any big statistical releases markets are treading water ahead of US CPI numbers later in the week. US 10-year Treasury yields hit a two-year high for a short while, whilst equities have been choppy in face of all the uncertainty. How much will the Fed lift rates in March? What will be the end rate? NAB’s Ray Attrill says focus is now also shifting to the actions of the ECB. Even though Christine Lagarde is still talking about a gradual shift in policy, other ECB members are not so sure and European bond yields have been rising accordingly. Much of the focus today will continue to be on inflation prospects, in the NAB Business Survey and in the NFIB small business survey. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, February 06, 2022
US kept working through Omicron peak
Monday 7th February 2021Friday’s non-farm payrolls data showed how more people returned to work in the US whilst Omicron saw the highest wave of COVID-19 infections across the country. Over the border Canada saw a fall in jobs in the face of continuing lockdowns. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this means US jobs will bounce back further next month, and what does this mean for inflation, with the US data showing another increase in hourly wages. China is back at work today, with the possibility that they will add to the rising cost of oil as they seek to replenish dwindling reserves.View our disclaimer and terms of use: https://nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide): https://nab.co/3rvJtI9 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, February 03, 2022
Tight squeeze or a gentle touch?
Friday 4th February 2022The Bank of England is certainly all out to stop any risk of wages pushing inflation out of control. The decision was one vote away from a half percent rate rise, with NAB’s Gavin Friend saying the bank is trying to send a firm signal, even though the eventual number of rises this year might fall below current market expectations. The rise comes at a time of strong headwinds for UK households and the broader economy. Meanwhile, a strong reaction on bond markets to the ECB meeting. The announcement itself wasn’t a surprise, but some ground was given during the press conference suggesting the ECB might move faster than they have been letting on. Tonight, of course, non-farm payrolls. Before that, the RBA Statement of Monetary Policy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, February 02, 2022
A tale of two central banks
Thursday 2rd February 2022You could say its the best of times and the worst of times, with a rampant jobs recovery tempered by high inflation. Certainly, two central banks have a different perspective on the underlying economic strength. As NAB’s David de Garis discusses on today’s podcast, the Bank of England are expected to raise rates today, whilst the ECB will continue to sit on its hands with Christine Lagarde, only yesterday, continuing to argue that inflation is temporary. Meanwhile, yesterday the RBA’s Philip Lowe finally admitted that a rate rise this year was plausible. Overnight we saw staggering earnings results from Google and disappointing jobs data in the US. Omicron almost certainly contributed to both of those outcomes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, February 01, 2022
Markets still at odds with RBA and ECB. Who’s right?
Wednesday 2nd February 2022The RBA is still reticent to signal a rate rise this year, even as they lift their inflation forecasts. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun says a lot rests on what Governor Lowe has to say today. The ECB is also playing it cool, but with 2-year German Bund yields climbing higher than the loan rate its clear the markets don’t agree with them either. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks through the latest data from Europe and the US, and reasons why equities are so much calmer and why the Aussie dollar has bounced back today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, January 31, 2022
RBA to join the rate-rise race?
Tuesday 1st February 2022It seems more likely than not that the RBA will announce an end to QEW today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says core timed mean inflation is running two years ahead of the RBA’s forecasts which suggests a rate rise this year is also likely. The front end of the yield yield curve rose a little in the US after Raphael Bostic argued for a 50 basis point rate rise in March, although he retreated a little form those remarks today. Inflation is rising in Europe, with figures out just in time for the ECB this week, and the BoE will almost certainly raise rates too. So is inflation the only driver now? What if the rates push major economies into a downturn? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, January 30, 2022
Aussie dollar loses break point
Monday 31st January 2021Whilst it was quite a night for Rafael Nadal, Friday had a less positive ending for the Aussie dollar, falling below 70 US cents to its lowest level since mid-2020, despite rising commodity prices. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the sharp fall could be the result of portfolio rebalancing by Aussie investors, which means it could stay low today but recover after month-end. We’ll see. Meanwhile equities bounced back in the US on Friday but markets are still choppy. Wages grew slightly less than expected in the US in Q4 and consumption has slowed, which makes the path for interest hikes a little murkier. All eyes will be on the RBA tomorrow, with markets still expecting rate rises this year. Will the RBA join the group-think? And China takes a holiday this week, we look at the impact that could have on the Aussie dollar, as we welcome in the Year of the Tiger. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, January 27, 2022
The aftermath of the Fed
Friday 28th January 2022There has been quite a turnaround after the sharp falls in share prices and the rise in bond yields that we saw kicking off during the Jerome Powell press conference after the FOMC yesterday. Today, bond yields have been falling and shares attempted a climb back. So, given the Fed delivered exactly what was expected, why the strong market reaction. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets were surprised by the hawkishness of the conference, but have perhaps since evaluated the vagueness of what was said. There was no timeline or detail on the number of rate hikes, for example. Today’s GDP numbers for Europe will provide evidence of the sharp contrast with the US, but that is expected to narrow as the year progresses. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, January 26, 2022
Fed confirms move to post-pandemic policy
Thursday 27th January 2022The FOMC has met and reaffirmed that rates will rise from March. NAB’s David de Garis says it was exactly what the markets were expecting, although the response has been a rise in yields and a fall in equities. Jerome Powell was more reticent to talk about the speed of tightening beyond the next meeting, given the uncertainties that remain. The Bank of Canada will also hike rates soon. Also on today’s podcast, what does the US widening trade deficit mean for their GDP numbers out later today, how will The RBNZ react to today’s inflation numbers, and Brent oil hits $90. Where to from here? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, January 24, 2022
Ukraine fears creates a risk off sell off
Tuesday 25th January 2022Markets have been gearing up for the FOMC meeting this week, but for a while at least tensions over Ukraine seem to have driven a strong risk-off push, with significant falls in share prices, a fall in bond yields and, to an extent, the US dollar seen as a safe-haven. But as the session progressed there was some re-evaluation of the risk, with shares and bond yields regaining some of the lost ground. As to the Fed, NAB’s Ray Attrill says the rising inflation is a major political headache for the Biden administration, so he’ll be eager to see the FDOMC do what it has to do to keep price sunder control. The question is, what will it do to the growth of the economy in the process? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, January 23, 2022
Turnaround in bonds ahead of FOMC this week
Monday 24th January 2022On today's podcast:Curiously bond yields retreated at the end of last week even though the assumption remains that the Fed will signal a March hike. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the fall in yields is a response to the sharp sell-off in equities at the end of the week which is, itself, a response to the rising interest rate environment. Locally, the CPI numbers for Australia tomorrow will put the RBA’s timeline for rate rises into sharp focus. Global PMIs today might have less influence given they are influenced by transitory factors, such as lockdowns, and the focus on the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, January 20, 2022
Aussie jobs flourish and US equities bounce
Friday 21st January 2022Australia’s job numbers were well above expectations yesterday. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks about what this means for the RBA, who are still at odds with the market on their timetable for rate hikes. NAB’s David de Garis in London talks about the move up in equities and bond prices this session, suggesting it is likely to be nothing more than a bounce. The expectation is still that the Fed will end QE and move to rate hikes swiftly this year. It’s a less definitive picture in Europe, with the ECB minutes highlighting the divided opinions of the board. UK and Canadian retail numbers are out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, January 19, 2022
Inflation (almost) everywhere
Thursday 20th January 2021The sell-off of US bonds has halted, temporarily, but it continues in Europe, particularly in the UK where high inflation numbers will heighten the Bank of England’s resolve to raise rates next month. Canada also reported a higher-than-expected level of CPI, increasing the expectation for a rate rise there next week. In Germany, 10-year bund yields moved into positive territory for the first time since 2019. As NAB’s Gavin Friend says, it’s not just a US dynamic, as central banks attempt to grapple with inflation. But what of Australia? Labour numbers today are expected to show the unemployment rate fall to 4.2%. Given many parts of the world are seeing wage-push inflation, could we see prices rise faster than anticipated? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, January 18, 2022
Markets swallow the post-Omicron outlook pill
Wednesday 19th January 2021US bond yields are now at their highest levels for two years, with equities now joining the sell-off, particularly for tech stocks on expectations of rising bank rates. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets oil is also rising sharply on the expected rise in demand in a post-COVID area, or at least a time when we learn to live with the virus. The UK has shown how that can be done, with better-than-expected employment numbers, despite the rising number of cases in late 2021. So, how prepared is Australia to live with COVID? Today’s monthly consumer confidence numbers will give us an indication. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, January 17, 2022
China bucks the tightening trend
Tuesday 18th January 2022Bond yields continue to rise as expectations heighten for faster central bank tightening. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland discusses on today’s Morning Call, the exception is the People’s Bank of China, which lowered rates yesterday on concerns about the spread of Omicron. President Xi has asked other central banks to sit tight, but that seems unlikely. Even the RBA is likely to bring forward its end to QE to next month. Whilst China faces more lockdowns, the rest of the world seems to be opening up The UK seems likely to end its Plan-B restrictions as soon as next week. The Empire Fed Manufacturing survey will be worth looking out for today, particularly after a sharp fall in the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index. Could the supply chain disruption be easing – and maybe inflation was transitory after all? Perhaps. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, January 16, 2022
Fed ready to fight inflation on two fronts
Monday 17th January 2022The Fed kicks of its schedule of FOMC meetings next week. We know tackling inflation will be front and centre, but as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, rate hikes are not the only tool they will be using. The minutes from the last meeting also suggest reducing their balance sheet will be part of the plan. Meanwhile, we’ve seen a significant sell-off in bonds, as investors expect a strong economic recovery this year, as Omicron’s impact wanes. Except in China, of course, which continues to pursue a zero-COVID policy, meaning supply chain disruption could remain, adding to inflation. China’s Q4 GDP is the data to look out for today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, December 21, 2021
Looking ahead to a better 2022
Wednesday 22nd December 2021There was a lot more positive sentiment in the markets overnight. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s all down to Omicron news, with infection rates falling in South Africa and hopes that a pill can stave off the worst for people who catch it. If the news remains as positive as all that, how will markets fare in 2022? How quickly will China bounce back, given their zero-COVID policy will still force shutdowns? What will happen to inflation is consumer demand improves but supply chain bottlenecks remain? What actions will central banks take and will any step too far when it comes to balance sheet reductions? And what will happen with the Great Resignation, if there continue to be many more jobs than people to fill them? One thing we can be certain of, even if COVID dies down next year, uncertainty remains. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, December 20, 2021
Europe’s cold cold Christmas
Tuesday 21st December 2021Energy markets are dominating market moves in the run up to Christmas. Oil prices have fallen significantly on fears that travel demand will fall as Omicron gains strength, whilst gas prices in Europe continue to rise on supply constraints from Russia. Equiites have also been hit hard by the virus uncertainty, on thinner holiday trading. NAB’s Ray Attrill says US numbers are just a couple of weeks behind the UK. And geopolitics is also at play, particularly in Chile and Turkey. Even in the UK Boris Johnson can’t be assured he won’t make it through Christmas without a roasting from his backbenchers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, December 19, 2021
A very cautious Christmas
Monday 20th December 2021Markets are very cautious ahead of the Christmas break, with concerns about the impact of the Omicron strain. The Netherlands has gone into another lockdown and restrictions are being introduced in many other parts of Europe. But that’s not stopping a more hawkish attitude from the FOMC. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a March hike in the US is a real possibility, with Fed Governor Waller flagging concerns about an “alarmingly high” inflation rate. More discontinuity in supply chains from Omicron could add to inflation concerns, of course. Today, we also discuss rate hikes whilst winding down balance sheets. Could central banks go too far too quickly? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, December 16, 2021
BoE lifts rates despite everything
Friday 17th December 2021A rate rise by the Bank of England has surprised many, particularly in an environment of record COVID infections, and a hospitality industry calling for government support as pre-Christmas demand collapses. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it had been clear since August that they wanted to lift rates, the only reason for the delay was a question mark over whether employment numbers would fall after furlough ended, which it didn’t. The ECB gave clearer indications of how they would manage their asset purchase post March. The RBA’s Philip Lowe remains cautionary despite an outstanding set of employment numbers for Australia yesterday. In data releases, PMIs showed a significant fall in services for Europe that is not being seen in the US. A pick-up in housing starts I the US could be taken as a sign that supply chain concerns are easing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, December 15, 2021
Fed’s turbo taper and dots surprise
Thursday 16th December 2021The Fed, not surprisingly, are tapering faster as the race is on to lift rates next year. NAB’s David de Garis says the QE ending by March clears the decks, with a revised inflation forecast speeding up the expectations of rises. Markets were expecting a hawkish tilt, so they haven’t been surprised. The Bank of England decision is less easy to read later on, with Britain’s high inflation number overnight offset by the highest number of daily COVID infections since the pandemic began. The ECB follows shortly after that, in a busy day which also sees PMIs across the globe and Aussie employment numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, December 14, 2021
It’s all about dots and jabs
Wednesday 15th December 2021Markets are still pulled in two directions. First there’s the continued uncertainty of the new COVID variant, which might be mild (or not), but is spreading like wildfire in the UK right now and the race is on to have booster jabs across the globe. Then there’s the inflation question and how quickly central banks will respond to it. A sharp increase in producer prices in the US has added to the ammunition for the Fed to move faster, with the next FOMC meeting tomorrow. It is assumed QE will end in March, the question is how many dot points for rate rises are expected next year. Whilst the Fed might predict two, markets are pricing for three. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says if the FOMC suggests three, the markets might move their expectations to four. It seems whatever the Fed chooses, markets expect more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, December 13, 2021
A little more caution on a lot less news
Tuesday 14th December 2021There’s a little more caution this morning, with equities down, driven by banks, travel and energy, with stay at home stocks doing better. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out, the fall in the S&P is on the back of the 67th record high of 2021 on Friday night. He says we shouldn’t expect too many significant moves ahead of the FOMC, ECB and Bank of England later in the week, and little significant news expected before then. Turkey’s central bank has already met, responding to sky high inflation by lowering interest rates. An interesting approach. Whilst rising Omicron cases are adding to the cautious tone. Numbers in the UK have risen sharply again, with the first recorded fatality. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, December 12, 2021
UK empties the glass, but markets still half full
Monday 13th December 2021Markets were trading last week on the basis that the Omicron variant was not as lethal as the Delta strain, even though infections were spreading rapidly. NAB’s Ray Attrill says that’s been the view with central banks too, who are more concerned about inflation than and further impacts from COVID. That said, rising cases in the UK will almost certainly stop the Bank of England from raising rates this week, whilst the FOMC is expected to shorten its taper timeline, finishing in March. It’s a busy week for central banks and more data on Omicron will influence the direction too. Starting with a press conference from the UK’s Prime Minister (for now) shortly after the release of this podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, December 09, 2021
Transmission and inflation - the two concerns
Friday 10th December 2021Things were definitely a bit quieter overnight, with markets stepping back a little as they wait to figure out just what impact Omicron is having, and which way inflation is heading. We get the latest indication on the latter with US CPI number out tonight, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says China’s consistently high producer prices don’t bode well. Also today, how China is trying to stop the appreciation in the Yuan and what to expect from the UK’s GDP number tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, December 08, 2021
Banks to sit on their hands, UK to cover their faces
Thursday 9th December 2021Even though equity markets have slowed, bond markets are still reflecting positive sentiment around coping with the Omicron strain. NAB’s Gavin Friend says Pfizer has confirmed views that three jabs will guard against serious illness from the new variant, and yet just now the British Prime Minister, where almost a third of the population have had three jabs, has introduced tougher measures to control the spread, including mask wearing at almost all indoor venues, working from home and vaccine passports for larger venues. The Bank of Canada has delayed acting on rising inflation and it seems likely that all central banks will sit on their hands this side of Christmas until more is known about the impacts of Omicron. Yesterday the RBA’s Philip Lowe said he didn’t expect the new strain to delay the recovery, but what makes him think Australia is so unique? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, December 07, 2021
Omicron’s not so bad, markets hope
Wednesday 8th December 2021There’s a lot of positive sentiment around this morning. Equities are rising sharply in the US and Europe, oil is up and bond yields are rising. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s been driven by the efficacy numbers of a GlaxoSmithKline vaccine, and circumstantial evidence that the Omicron strain might not be that bad for those who have been jabbed. Data wise there were fairly in strong industrial production numbers in Germany, with Chinese imports picking up and the final GDP numbers showing a rise in European consumer spending. In other news, Janet Yellen has been channelling her inner Donald Trump when it comes to tariffs and tensions brew over Ukraine. And NAB’s Ivan Colhoun deciphers yesterday’s RBA meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, December 06, 2021
China and Omicron hopes drive a bounce back
Tuesday 7th December 2021US equites are roaring back, so is oil, with bond yields rising again. This newfound optimism has been driven by policy easing measures from China’s central bank, and less concern about the impact of the Omicron strain. It’s still too early to draw definitive conclusions on the virus, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, with reports from South Africa that there is a concerning rise in younger patients. Tougher measures on mandatory vaccines for workers could also ignite more protests that could have the opposite impact on take-ups, which could slow economies, particularly in Europe. Not much is expected from the RBA today, but the build-up of positive data is likely to force a policy change in February. Meanwhile, the jury is still out on the Bank of England next week, but market expectations around a rate rise are falling. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, December 05, 2021
Too tight too quickly?
Monday 6th December 2021Markets were far more cautious on Friday. In part there are still concerns about the new Omicron strain, although circumstantial evidence so far is pointing to it being a milder variant. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says tech stocks were hit the hardest, because there’s growing acceptance that the Fed will push ahead with faster tapering, irrespective of tailwinds. Payrolls numbers were weaker than anticipated, but not enough to stop them, it seems. That raises the question, will central banks push ahead with tightening measures before economies have recovered to the detriment of the longer term outlook? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, December 02, 2021
There’s a certain uncertainty
Friday 3rd December 2021Markets have displayed much mor epositive sentiment in the last 24 hours, but its not lasting. Gains in US equities have fallen away a little, and oil prices have risen sharply and fallen back again. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Omicron news is mixed – it’s certainly spreading quickly but symptoms of those who are vaccinated appear to be mild. US Treasury yields have flattened further as more Fed officials pile on with calls for faster tapering. Oil prices fell sharply mid-session on the news that OPEC would lift supplies next month, but rose again on the news that they would pull back if demand falls because of Omicron. In short, another day of uncertainty all round. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, December 01, 2021
WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets
Thursday 2nd December 2021Markets were choppy again overnight, but there is renewed hope with circumstantial evidence that the Omicron variant might be less severe. A WHO press conference suggested that existing vaccines will be enough to prevent many extreme cases, but we’ll still have to wait for the final verdict. NAB’s David de Garis says that was enough for the focus to shift a little to positive data reads out of the US, including a 534k rise in the ADP payrolls number an ISM manufacturing at 61.1 for November. Australia’s better than expected Q3 GDP number has done little to help the Aussie dollar – Dave suggests it has followed the fortunes of the S&P500. Today, the focus will stay with news around the virus and its impact on lockdowns and other contingency measures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, November 30, 2021
Who are you and what have you done with Jerome Powell?
Wednesday 1st December 2021You might have expected that Jerome Powell would use the uncertainty of the new COVID strain to downplay the need to adjust the speed of tapering by the Federal Reserve, but instead, addressing the Congress, he talked up the need for faster tapering, to be discussed at the next FOMC meeting. So, what’s brought about this character transformation? NAB’s David de Garis says he is clearly now far more worried about inflation. The ECB, meanwhile, is happy to keep using the transitory word and believes inflation has just about peaked. Meanwhile, China’s PMIs and prices paid gave a glint of hope that supply chain issues might be easing, albeit very slowly. But progress could be destroyed by the impact of measures to constrain the new variant. The future is as clear as mud and markets today reflect that uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, November 29, 2021
The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty
Tuesday 30th November 2021On today’s Morning Call NAB’s Ray Attrill reminds us that the CSIRO’s Dr Rob Grenfell predicted, back in the middle of the year, that about now we would see a variant of COVID spreading from India or Africa. He now says the situation in South Africa is not a good comparator for Australia, and we should watch how it develops in Europe over the next couple of weeks. In the meantime, markets are playing a waiting game. There was a mild bounce back in equities, bond yields and the US dollar, but volatility will remain, driven by the news cycle. The other unknown is the impact this will have on the speed of a global recovery, with border shutdowns and the like, and the subsequent impact on inflation. Lots of questions for Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen then, in front of a senate hearing today. China’s PMIs will be the numbers to watch today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, November 28, 2021
Did the markets overreact to Omicron news?
Monday 29th November 2021There was a very strong market response to the news of the Omicron virus strain on Friday. Equities were hit hard, currencies ran for the shelter of safe havens and there was a sharp fall in bond yields. How much of this was a knee-jerk reaction amongst the thin trading on the day after Thanksgiving. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we can expect Asian markets to follow the US today, before markets settle down, but we can expect volatility for some time as we wait for news that helps assess the risk posed by this new strain. So, what does this mean for central bank tightening? Where will the Aussie dollar head through this turbulent time? What impact will it have on oil and inflation? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, November 25, 2021
Talking turkey on central bank thinking
Friday 26th November 2021As America gobbles up Turkeys NAB’s Gavi Friend talks through the latest positioning on tightening by central banks. The FOMC minutes suggested a more hawkish approach, and the latest data would suggest that view has been reinforced, but there’s still a disconnect between what the markets expect and the messaging from the Fed. The Riksbank has started to talk about rate rises, but not before 2024. The Bank of England looked certainly to raise rates last month, but it didn’t happen and a rise in December is now looking less certainly. The ECB are continuing down a dovish path, reinforced by their latest minutes overnight. Meanwhile, the RBA is holding firm, even though the bounce back in jobs yesterday (with retail sales data today) suggests a recovery that most nations would be envious off. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, November 24, 2021
Is the US getting too hot to handle?
Thursday 25th November 2021There were many more positive signs for the US economy overnight, with initial jobless claims at an all-time low. The US dollar remains in favour, with the DXY index reaching a 16-month high. On today’s podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland says rising inflation concerns are turning even the most dovish FOMC members, with Mary Daly the latest calling for a faster taper to make room for rate rises. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summer spoke again about his concerns about the Fed’s delay, worried that they won’t be able to find “a soft landing”. Meanwhile, the Kiwi dollar has been hit hard by the quarter percent rate rise by the RBNZ. Why was there such a sharp response? Plus, the latest on oil, with prices down today, but we can expect more volatility as OPEC takes on their customers. How dare they dip into reserves! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, November 23, 2021
Happy tales from Euroland
Wednesday 24th November 2021There was a surprise for those expecting the PMI numbers on Tuesday to confirm the widening gap between US and European economic performance. Let’s be honest, the NAB Morning Call team were amongst those who weren’t expecting to see the narrowing of the divide, with Europe doing somewhat better than expected, and the US a little worse than forecast. But NAB’s David de Garis says the US bond yields are still up, the market still wants to hold US dollars in anticipation of a quickening of the taper and earlier rate rises. The RBNZ rate decision today will be watched closely – there’s still an outside chance the rise will be as much as half a percent. And Joe Biden’s attempts to bring down the cost of oil seems to have gone awry. Confirmation of a plan to dig into reserves, not just in the US, has seen oil prices shoot skywards. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, November 22, 2021
US dollar rises as Powell stays put.
Tuesday 23rd November 2021The US dollar and bond yields rose on the news that Jerome Powell is to keep the top job at the Fed for another term, with Lael Brainard as deputy. Even though both are doves, NAB’s Ray Attrill says the market still has two or three rate rises priced in for next year. The Aussie dollar has avoided collateral damage from the raising US dollar, helped by the news of border reopenings, that will help foreign workers to return. Today is PMI day, which is expected to give a further clear delineation between the strength of thew US economy versus the woes faced in Europe. The Euro is expected to continue to bear the brunt of any rises in the dollar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, November 21, 2021
A speedy taper and European tantrums
Monday 22nd November 2021The divide between the US and Europe became more pronounced at the end of last week, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains 0n today’s Morning Call. On the one side of the Atlantic there are increasing infections, more lockdowns and, in Austria, mandatory vaccines, with a central bank pushing the line that tightening will only damage the recovery. On the other side, central bankers are talking up the need for faster tapering, presumably so they can move to raise rates sooner. But hardly anyone is moving as fast as New Zealand, with the RBNZ certain to lift rates this week, but by how much? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, November 18, 2021
US continues a slow recovery, Europe’s mounting issues
Friday 19th November 2021US equities have bounced back a little today, but, as NAB’s Gavi Friend describes, it’s been a session without significant event risk or data flow. Equities and bond yields have been stable compared to recent volatility, with the tech sector contributing to equity rises, including news of Apple’s self-drive car. Some companies are also reporting easing of supply chain difficulties. Those issues have certainly been holding back the speed of recovery, evidenced again by higher prices in the Philly Fed’s manufacturing index and a slowdown in the reduction of weekly jobless claims. If supply chains recover and jobs growth picks up, will inflation subside. That continues to be the view of the ECB, with Philip Lane reiterating it again overnight. Europe meanwhile has other issues to contend with – energy supplies, rising COVID cases and a likely trade dispute with the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, November 17, 2021
Caution after UK inflation surprise. Will Aussie wages ratchet up?
Thursday 18th November 2021Australian wage growth is in line with expectations, but where to from here? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ivan Colhoun if there’s a chance we’ll see wages escalate in the next few months? The UK’s inflation numbers surprised everyone overnight, reaching 4.2 percent year on year. Does this concrete in a BoE rate rise, or could they do what they did last time and do nothing? David de Garis gives his thoughts. Canada’s inflation is also increasing, but no more than anticipated. US housing starts are down, but there are clear signs they’ll soon pick up. Join us for a Morning Call triple header! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, November 16, 2021
Tills ring in the USA, jobs bounce back in the UK
Wednesday 17th November 2021It’s been a positive session overnight, with US retail sales rising and US jobs bouncing back. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s difficult to tell how much of the 1.7% month on month increase in sales is a result of rising prices and how much is more goods sold, but it shows consumers are prepared to spend even with supply constraints and inflation concerns. The UK jobs numbers are particulartly good because they have grown despite the end of a job furlough scheme with 1.1 million people on it. Mostly retained their jobs and there were many extra jobs besides. Is this the ammunition the Bank of England needs for a rate rise next month? Meanwhile Governor Lowe continues to be cautious about rate hikes for Australia, reiterating nothing is likely to happen until 2024, even though the market has priced in 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, November 15, 2021
Europe’s caution, China’s hope
Tuesday 16th November 2021The Euro has lost ground this morning, with concerns over COVID, following lockdowns in Holland and Austria, and rising cases in Germany. There remains a very different attitude between the ECB and the Fed, with Christine Lagarde reiterating that in Europe they are in no rush to tighten policy. China’s activity data provided hope that the country’s economy was stabilising. In the US there will be a lot of focus to see whether tonight’s retail numbers are strong, or will they have been pulled down with falling consumer sentiment? The UK’s employment numbers will be watched keenly by the Bank of England, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s too soon to provide the full picture needed to determine rate rises. And President Xi and President Biden meet (virtually) shortly – the start of better relations, perhaps? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, November 14, 2021
US facing higher prices, more quits, falling sentiment
Friday 15th November 2021Hot on the heels of the surprising increase in inflation in the US earlier last week, Friday saw an unexpected fall in consumer sentiment. The Michigan survey hit an 11-year low. NAB’s Ray Attrill says previous low readings had been associated with rising COVID cases, but now, as the US seems to be faring somewhat better than Europe, the concern is all about rising prices. It’s a significant issue for the Fed and the US government, with wages rising significantly below the headline inflation rate. To counter being worse off, over 4 million Americans quit their job in one month. In Europe COVID itself remains a concern with restrictions re-imposed in Holland and Austria. Could other countries follow as winter draws near? Today, activity data from China will be keenly watched, and later in the week the wage price index will highlight whether Australia too could become subject to wage-push inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, November 11, 2021
Have a little faith
Friday 12th November 2021Markets have been a little more positive over the last 24 hours, with the NASDAQ back on the rise, although a rising US dollar continues to hurt the S&P, and the Aussie dollar has taken another hit. Part of the fall in the Aussie can be attributed to the weaker than expected jobs numbers yesterday, but NAB’s David de Garis says when you unpack the numbers there was plenty of ground for optimism. He says one interesting factor has been the gross rise in jobs in NSW – many people were switching jobs as the lockdown eased. Australia could be witnessing the start of the great resignation seen in other developed countries. The UK’s recovery slowed, with GDP lower than expected, but that’s been offset by falling COVID cases and high uptakes of the third jab. So, what does that all mean for the expectation of rate rises form the Bank of England? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, November 10, 2021
Eye-popping inflation doesn’t faze the Fed
Thursday 11th November 2021The inflation numbers from the US have been eye popping. That’s the description by the Fed’s Mary Daly as US CPI hits 6.2%, a 30 year high. NAB’s Gavin Friend points out that there are still four million people in the US who lost their jobs through COVID who aren’t back in the workforce, and the Fed will continue to use that reasoning for not lifting rates. But markets are likely to revert to their expectations that the bank will be forced to move sooner than it intends. Australia’s labour market data today, for October, will still be held back by lockdowns and the UK’s GDP read for Q3 will provide a useful barometer on an economy whose return is slower than anticipated, and will have taken a knock with increased fuel costs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, November 09, 2021
Markets out of steam on inflation day
Wednesday 10th November 2021There’s been a move away from risk assets. It could just be equity markets running out of steam after a particularly strong rally, but a Financial Stability Report from the fed warning of “perilous lunges for risky assets” probably didn’t help. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s hard to join all the dots right now about why the mood has shifted, but inflation continues to be a concern. It was reflected in the NFIB small business report, along with difficulties in obtaining staff. There’s optimism in Australia though, evidenced by the NAB Business Survey yesterday. Today, US CPI will be the focus, along with producer prices from China. Two key numbers for inflation watchers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, November 08, 2021
Taking a breather
Tuesday 9th November 2021You’d think markets would be bathed in positivity, particularly in the US, with a string of good news, including infrastructure spending, the COVID pill and the reopening of a lot of international travel. There’s evidence of tiredness in the equity market says NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in today’s podcast, but we’ve been here before and then it takes off again. Bond yields meanwhile are still adjusting to a world in which central banks are not quite so quick to raise rates, whilst coping with a high inflation outlook. On top of all that, Europe has to contend with higher gas prices, rising again, and the danger of a trade war over Brexit. Locally, the NAB business survey is out early this morning (7.30am). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, November 07, 2021
Bond markets wrapped up in a ball of confusion
Monday 8th November 2021You might expect a little more optimism in the markets given Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls data in the US, Pfizer’s news about a pill for COVID sufferers, the passing of Biden’s $1.2 billion infrastructure bill and rising consumer credit in the US. Equity markets are riding high on future hopes, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says bond markets continue to unwind from expectations on the timing of rate hikes by central banks, in particular the surprise move by the Bank of England last week not to move. Today we also look at Friday’s RBA Statement of Monetary Policy, and look ahead to US CPI and Australian labour market data this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, November 04, 2021
Bank of England Backs Down
Friday 5th November 2021There has been a sharp response in bond yields and currency markets to the Bank of England’s decision not to lift interest rates. Furthermore, Andrew Bailey is suggesting he doesn’t know where everyone got the idea that they would. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the response has been very marked. The fall in yields is pushing riskier assets, hence new highs for the S&P and NASDAQ. Yields could claw back a little as markets assess the possibility of a December hike. Meanwhile, the focus is on tonight’s non-farm payrolls in the US, with indications that it could be a strong number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, November 03, 2021
Tighter but taking time
Thursday 4th November 2021There weren’t any surprises in from the FOMC this morning. The Fed will cut asset purchases by $15 billion this month, with a further $15 billion in December, and an expectation that it will continue until the middle of next year. But Jerome Powell was again quick to point out that the tapering does not imply “any direct signal on interest rate policy”. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the meeting, and looks at the latest US data that shows further signs of recovery. Tonight all eyes are on the Bank of England, where we can expect a small move up in interest rates. They’ve practically said as much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, November 02, 2021
Central banks still grappling with what to do about inflation
Wednesday 3rd November 2021Central banks are still grappling with what to do about inflation. The RBA is reluctant to talk about interest rate hikes anytime soon, because they don’t think inflation will be a big problem. The Fed and the Bank of England take a different view, but how hawkish will they be. Today on the Morning Call NAB’s Tapas Strickland looks back at yesterday’s RBA meeting and looks ahead to the FOMC tomorrow morning, whilst discussing the various attitudes to the dimensions of inflation. Concerns over supply chain disruptions, of won’t be helped by the rise of COVID lockdowns in China , with the Commerce department there asking local authorities to stock up for winter. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, November 01, 2021
RBA more uncertain than the cup winner
Tuesday 2nd November 2021For once we are going into an RBA meeting unsure of what the outcome will be. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we have as much chance of predicting a winner in the Cup today as we do forecasting what direction the central bank will take. Meanwhile bond yields in Europe are being driven by the next central bank meeting – will the ECB abandon its PEPP program? Plus, more evidence of the great China slowdown. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, October 31, 2021
The winds of change in central bank policy
Monday 1st November 2021There were more big moves in Australian bond yields on Friday as the RBA failed to buy up the April 2024 bonds that were the focus of its yield curve control (YCC) policy. So does that mean YCC is dead? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says, yes it is. It has become dysfunctional, given the force we have seen from markets pushing front end yields higher around the globe. It should make for an interesting RBA meeting tomorrow, with more to come from the Bank of England the Fed. All are expected to confirm a policy shift. Meanwhile, evidence of inflationary pressures continue to mount, whilst China’s manufacturing is in contraction. Listen in as Rodrigo explains the rapidly evolving picture, for bonds, economic growth, jobs and inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, October 28, 2021
Inflation, inflation, inflation. It’ll pass says ECB, again.
Friday 29th October 2021Three year bond yields rose well above the RBA’s target of 0.1 percent yesterday, but the central bank didn’t buy any up as part of its yield control. That pushed yields even higher. So will they react today? NAB’s David de Garis doesn’t think the bank will ditch yield control, but it’ll make next week’s policy meeting that much more interesting. Christine Lagarde said there was a lot of soul searching at yesterday’s ECB meeting, where the discussion was all about "inflation, inflation, inflation". In the end they reaffirmed that inflation was a transitory issue and there was no need for the bank to react. Yet Germany and Spain reported the highest inflation rates in decades. Are they doing the right thing? Meanwhile, equites are existing in a different world, rising still higher on the back of strong earnings results. And Facebook is changing its name. Listen in for more details. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, October 27, 2021
Going bond crazy
Thursday 28th October 2021There have been sharp movements in bond yields, with front end yields rising and falls at the back end. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it reflects expectations that rising inflation will force central banks to raise rates sooner. We saw a higher-than-expected rise in Australian inflation yesterday and 2 year yields rose sharply overnight. Guy Debelle is in front of senate estimates this morning – will he still be arguing the transitory line? Bonds were also impacted by the Bank of Canada, who were more hawkish than expected, and by Rishi Sunak’s UK budget, which included forecasts suggesting a £50 billion drop in debt issuance next year. Tonight, the ECB meets and Q3 US GDP numbers are released. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, October 26, 2021
Summers’ Twitter Tirade as US inflation expectations hit 13 year high
Wednesday 27th October 2021Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers took to Twitter yesterday to challenge Janet Yellen over inflation policy, suggesting the risk of losing control of it is higher than at any time in his career. Today, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks more about the rising inflation sentiment, with inflation expectations in the US now at a 13 year high. The expectation of a rate hike is being brought forward around the world, but the RBA (and NAB) are not expecting that to happen in Australia. Will this morning’s CPI numbers change that view? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, October 25, 2021
Banks ready to tighten, Biden ready to spend
Tuesday 26th October 2021The markets continue to be dominated by rising inflation concerns, including the price of oil. WTI got over $85 today, but has fallen back since. NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells how Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has said it’s too early to up production whilst uncertainty prevails. There was an example of that uncertainty as another Chinese province went into lockdown. But equity markets aren’t concerned about such things. The S&P500 hit a new high as share rose on the back of strong earnings and higher commodity prices. And Joe Biden could be a step closer to having a scaled back version of his infrastructure package see the light of day. Listen in to find out why. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, October 24, 2021
Powell wants time to heal
Monday 25th October 2021Comments from Jerome Powell added to the volatility in bond markets on Friday. The chair of the Fed reinforced that it was time to taper, but suggested rate rises would have to wait, with more than five million people who were working before the pandemic still unemployed. The labour market needs time to heal, he said. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it shows that he is less inclined to respond to inflation worries until bond purchases are unwound, unlike the Bank of England. Ray also points out how the PMI data for Europe, the UK and US was generally strong, suggesting that stagflation looks like likely. It’s a busy week ahead with the ECB and Bank of Canada meeting, Q3 CPI for Australia and lots of earnings announcements, including Facebook after Monday’s close in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, October 21, 2021
Commodities down, but inflation fears stay high
A sharp fall in commodity prices hasn’t dampening inflation expectations, and with it the assumption that central banks will bring interest rates forward. NAB’s David de Garis says it’s been a day when bond markets in particular have particularly been bitten the inflation bug, with pricing suggesting inflation will average three percent over the next five years, even higher in the UK. Two surveys highlighted that supply chain difficulties continue, the Philly Fed’s Business Outlook, and the CBI Optimism Index. The CBI survey showed that two thirds of UK businesses were complaining of supply shortages, the last time it was that high was in January 1975. Oh dear. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, October 20, 2021
The inflation debate heats up
Thursday 21st October 2021Equities are rising to new highs as risk sentiment improves on the back of strong earnings results in the US, even though inflation remains an ever-present concern. NAB’s David de Garis says the Fed’s Beige Book, out this morning, highlights how many companies are convinced they can pass on their increased costs, with consumers paying through increased wages. If that’s the case has Jerome Powell been right all along, that inflation is transitory? It remains the subject of intense debate. The head of the Bundesbank has announced his resignation, citing personal reasons, but could it also be his objection to ECB’s delay in tackling inflation? And could the Bank of England’s plans by stymied as COVID infection rates start to rise again, quite significantly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, October 19, 2021
Earnings anything but a damp squid
Wednesday 20th October 2021US equities have had a strong session, although Procter and Gamble weas one of the first major household companies to highlight margin squeeze from supply chain difficulties. Netflix earnings are expected to be strong thanks in part to the success Squid Game. Meanwhile the tentacles of inflation continue to worry policy makers almost the world over – the RBA being one of the few exceptions. The UK CPI numbers are out tonight, but already it seems like a rate rise is (squid) inked in. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the Bank of England could regret lifting rates, and whether the lack of movement in longer-dated bond yields suggests investors are thinking the same thing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, October 18, 2021
Inflation and slowing economies. Isn’t there a word for that?
Tuesday 19th October 2021Bond yields are higher globally as inflation concerns mount. New Zealand’s CPI read (2.2% QoQ) sent 10 year yields up 16 basis points, spilling over to Australia. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the inflationary pressures haven’t yet arrived in Australia which means the RBA will lag other central banks when it comes to rate hikes. Meanwhile, China is showing signs of a significant slowdown in output, with GDP growing just 0.2 percent in the last quarter, and with supply chain disruption, COVID lockdowns and energy shortages unlikely to improve that number could go lower. US data also disappointed. Phil Dobbie asks whether these are the signs of emerging stagflation? Or will corporate earnings give the markets some momentum and show there is growth, even with rising prices? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, October 17, 2021
Shares rising, despite everything. Please explain.
Monday 18th October 2021Equity markets were buoyed by strong US earnings results and stronger than expected retail sales numbers, but there are many reasons to suggest this confidence might be short-lived, according to NAB’s Tapas Strickland. Corporate earnings have been focused on the finance sector, so results from other sectors will give an indication of the inflation impacts on margins and growth potential. Chinese activity data today and the ongoing Evergrande saga could impact global growth hopes. Then there’s inflation, which continues to grow, with the Fed expected to bring forward its first rate hike and the Bank of England Governor reiterating the need for a rate rise in the UK this year. Paying more for a mortgage is unlikely to boost consumer confidence which is already flagging. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, October 14, 2021
Have inflation concerns peaked?
Friday 15th October 2021Markets have taken a more positive outlook overnight, with sharp rises in equities in the US and Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s been helped by falling bond yields, showing that there’s less immediate concern about rising inflation. That doesn’t mean the problem has gone away, but company earning results in the US have been positive, and there will be some solace in the fact that the growth in producer prices (PPI) seem to have stalled, albeit at very high levels. On today’s podcast we look at inflation in China (where PPI growth persists), the commodity and supply chain sagas, US jobless claims and yesterday’s employment data from Australia. Today US retail numbers are the data to watch for. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, October 13, 2021
Wages, fuel, supply chains and a not-so-transitory inflation number
Thursday 14th October 2021US CPI numbers were a little higher than anticipated. NAB’s David de Garis says we did see some support for bond yields, but markets slipped back when it was realised the core inflation number was pretty line-ball with expectations. As we’re seeing around the world, prices are being influenced by fuel, supply chains and wages. This morning’s FOMC minutes contained nothing in the way of surprises – it simply cemented-in the belief that the Fed will start tapering this year through to mid- 2022, but the timing of a rate rise seems less certain. UK GDP was also close to expectations, although manufacturing and construction were well down thanks to the ‘pingdemic’. We also look at China’s trade data on the podcast today and discuss Australia’s employment numbers out this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, October 12, 2021
IMF warning central banks to act quickly on inflation
Wednesday 13th October 2021The IMF released revised forecasts overnight, together with a warning that central banks need to tighten their monetary policy if inflation persists. Inflation concerns are certainly growing, backed with evidence in numerous surveys. 30% of small business owners in the US said they expect to lift wages, according to the latest NFIB survey. The latest jobs data for the US and UK shows how tight the labour market is, adding to fears of an inflation spiral. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the numbers and the central bank responses, as well as looking ahead to today’s trade data from China and tonight’s CPI numbers from the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, October 11, 2021
Energy prices rise further, central banks more hawkish
Tuesday 12th October 2021Fuel prices are rising, with the gas crisis now pushing up oil and coal prices. On today’s podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland says central banks are now worried about inflation getting “permanently embedded” (Andrew Bailey’s words) and are becoming more hawkish in their outlook. The latest is the Bank of England, where markets are already pricing in a 50 percent chance of a small increase as soon as next month. Bond yields continue to rise on this new attitude by central banks. Also today, does Australia need to reopen its borders to get the economy back on track? Can we fully recover without the return of a migrant workforce? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, October 10, 2021
Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen the Fed’s tapering intention
Monday 11th October 2021Non-farm payrolls numbers from the US on Friday were less than expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the numbers weren’t as bad as they seem, because they included an upward revision in the month before. The expectation is that the Fed will push ahead with tapering of bond purchases later in the year, with bond yields rising around the world, to multi-year highs in some cases. Inflation remains a concern, because of supply chain disruption, rising fuel prices and wages. That might be good news for the Aussie dollar iron ore rose 6 percent on Friday – but N AB has downgraded forecasts given the expected strength in the US dollar during this climate of uncertainty. Listen in to find out more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, October 07, 2021
Everyone seems happy to kick the can
Friday 8th October 2021Two cans are being kicked. The US debt ceiling can is being kicked into December, but the issues remain. The gas can has been kicked along by a promise of more fuel from Russia, but isn’t Europe’s dependency on Russia part of the problem? Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s new chief economist is warning of inflation for longer. Is he positioning for a rate rise? NAB’s David de Garis talks through the overnight market news, as well as looking ahead to the Financial Stability Review from the RBA today, and tonight’s non-farm payrolls numbers in the US. There are plenty of reasons why this should be a strong set of numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, October 06, 2021
Where is the safe haven?
Thursday 7th October 2021The fuel crisis in Europe and the UK is impacting global markets, with shares taking a hit. There’s been no rush to bonds given the impending inflation concerns, worsened by fuel prices, and most currencies are losing against the US dollar, which is possibly the only safe-haven left right now. It’s been a rollercoaster day, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, with energy prices in the driving seat and upending all markets. The problem is, there doesn’t seem to be a short-term resolution. Listen in to find out why. Plus, strong jobs numbers in the USD. Does this foreshadow a strong non-farms payroll number for the US on Friday? And a vote on the US debt ceiling possible in the next few hours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, October 05, 2021
Risk on, with inflation? RBNZ ready to lift rates
Wednesday 6th October 2021The currency markets suggest there’s a risk on mood this morning, with the US dollar gaining on the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Strong non-manufacturing ISM numbers in the US have helped with that. But oil prices continue to rise too, adding to inflation concerns. Yet tech stocks have risen as well. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil Dobbie to help explain market positions this morning, on the day that the RBNZ is expected to lift interest rates, despite expectations that the country will face many more COVID cases as the policy switches to one of living with the virus. US jobs will be the focus for the second half of the week, starting with ADP employment numbers tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, October 04, 2021
Stagflation consternation as OPEC sticks to the plan
Tuesday 5th October 2021Oil prices rose quickly this morning after OPEC+ announced they would stick with their earlier plans of rising production in November by 400 thousand barrels a day. At one stage Brent and WTI were both up more than 3 percent. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it was a surprising response, because there wasn’t a particular expectation that they would rise production. Nonetheless it has added to inflation concerns, and raised more talk about stagflation – will the price increases dampen demand and slow the jobs recovery? It’s a dilemma for central banks and governments. So far though, inflation isn’t having a big reaction on production. The manufacturing ISM in the US was strong n Friday, so was consumer spending. Markets will be watching the data today to see whether demand from the services sector is continuing to push ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, September 30, 2021
China to secure fuel at all costs
Friday 1st October 2021There’s a fair bit to chew on today, with commodity currencies helped by word from China that they must secure enough energy for winter, whatever the cost. The US has managed to agree an interim budget for now, but the debt ceiling remains an issue and will remain so until the very last minute. Jerome Powell pontificated in his congressional hearing about what to do if high inflation persists, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says nothing that was said deflects from the expectation that rate rises in the US are still a long way away. The US dollar has stalled its steady growth for now, in part because of the rise in commodity currencies, but will it resume its steady path? Maybe Europe will come to the fore. After all, they don’t have to debate spending packages, they already have one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, September 29, 2021
Markets calmer, but US budget deadline looms
Thursday 30th September 2021Markets are much calmer this morning. Equities have managed to climb a little, with the biggest moves in currencies and commodities. NAB’s David de Garis says there’s debate about whether we’re heading to reflation, deflation or stagflation, or all of the above. The Aussie dollar lost more ground, but the pound is taking more of a hammering as fuel shortages will almost certainly be hitting the growth outlook there. Over the Atlantic the debt ceiling is looming, but the short-term issue is passing some sort of budget today, so the government can carry on spending tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, September 28, 2021
Dangerous Powell, markets run for cover
Wednesday 29th September 2021It seems like it was a fairly heated Senate Banking Committee meeting in the US overnight. Flags were raised about whether Jerome Powell will win another term as Governor of the Fed, given the background of yesterday’s resignations and with one Democrat Senator overnight calling him ‘dangerous’. The US debt ceiling is also causing concern, with it being used as a bargaining chip for the moderation of Biden’s spending plans. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says we have been here before so the market is not overly concerned about the lack of progress, just yet. We also discuss how the Fed are likely to push ahead with tapering even if employment doesn’t pick up, how China’s growth this year is likely to be hit by rolling power outages, signs that Australia will bounce back quickly out of lockdown and the future for Evergrande. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, September 27, 2021
Is reflation back? Commodities push even higher
Tuesday 28th September 2021It seems markets are still trading on the hawkishness of central banks, particularly the Fed, where we’re seeing bond yields significantly higher and tech stocks weakening. Commodity prices are also pushing higher globally, with Brent Crude now close to $80 a barrel. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says these extra costs, plus supply constraints make it highly unlikely that the Bank of England will lift interest rates next year, no matter what Governor Andrew Bailey suggests. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, September 26, 2021
Add the debt ceiling to the list of concerns
Monday 27th September 2021Last week was a very volatile week, driven by the uncertainty over Evergrande, the unexpected hawkishness of central banks, continued concerns over supply chains and the emerging fuel crisis in the UK and Europe. This week you can add the USD debt ceiling to the list of concerns. NAB’s Ray Attrill says without a stop gap funding resolution we could be going into the weekend with government shutdowns. Also today we look at the German election over the weekend, which could see the government split three ways. And will the Aussie dollar gain ground as “freedom day” in NSW approaches? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, September 23, 2021
Optimism. But why?
Friday 24th September 2021There’s been a big shift to risk-on overnight, with equities rising and bonds falling, pushing yields much higher in the US and across Europe. But why? The risk of Evergrande remains and with the Fed eyeing jobs data, a rise in weekly jobless claims was hardly a good sign this morning. NAB’s Gavin Friend says part of it is a reaction to the clearer roadmap for the Fed, assuming the next payrolls numbers are strong. Markets were also responding to the Bank of England, who expect inflation in the UK to reach 4 percent this year and that could strengthen the case for “modest tightening of monetary policy”. But if prices are rising because of supply constraints, does a rate hike really make sense? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, September 22, 2021
Not yet, but soon says the Fed
Thursday 23rd September 2021As expected, the Fed didn’t give a specific date for the start of tapering, but suggested it should all be done by the middle of next year. NAB’s David de Garis says the bank has also moved forward its expectations for rate rises, with the board split on a rise as soon as next year. The Norges Bank is well ahead of them tonight, likely to be the first G20 central bank to lift rates since the pandemic started. The Bank of England meets today too, and inflation concerns will be front and centre, particularly with the crisis in fuel prices. Meanwhile markets were buoyed by the news that Evergrande will pay bondholders, so that can has been kicked down the road for now. Oil has risen as inventors in the US fell faster than expected. And lots of PMI reads today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, September 21, 2021
Waiting on Evergrande, the Fed and oil inventories
Wednesday 22nd September 2021Markets are still concerned over the Evergrande debacle, although equities and currencies and bonds have all calmed down a little overnight. China has been on holiday so far this week, so today could provide news on the government’s response before the develop defaults on its bond interest payments. There will be strong interest I the Fed tomorrow morning, of course, but it seems unlikely that they will announce tapering of their asset purchases just yet. NAB’s David de Garis says they will prefer to see another standout jobs report. Also today, can we expect more moves in oil, with the EIA stockpile report tonight. And the OECD has revised growth forecasts down and inflation expectations up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, September 20, 2021
Evergrande Contagion Fears
Tuesday 21st September 2021Markets have been running for cover overnight over fears that a default by Evergrande could spread beyond the Chinese property sector to the rest of the world. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the response, which has seen equities ditched in favour of bonds, and the money markets running to the Yen and Swiss Franc. But it’s the pound that has fared the worst overnight as their energy crisis continues, which has its own multi-industry contagion. By the time you listen in RBNZ Assistant governor Christian Hawkesby will have given a speech that could impact markets locally, particularly if he gives hints on the size of the expected rate rise. And the Canadian election results will start coming in later today, but there’s every chance it’ll be down to the wire and we won’t know for sure till later in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, September 19, 2021
Just another cautious Monday
Monday 20th September 2021There’s more caution in the markets as we kick off a week doinated by central banks – the US Fed, BoE, BoJ, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank, Norgesbank all meeting, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s the US Fed that has markets on a bit of a holding pattern. There will be particular interest in the mapping of dot points this week. On the podcast there’s discussion about the flattening US yield curve, reasons for the weak retail numbers in the UK, Europe’s gas crisis, and the impact of a potential default by Evergrande in China this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, September 16, 2021
Lots of movement, not much direction
Friday 17th September 2021There was a lot of movement overnight, with US equities falling, then regaining some of the losses in late trade. Most currencies fell against a rising US dollar, but even some of those were pared back as the session progressed. The fall in equities happened despite a rise in US retail numbers, when sales were expected to fall. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets clearly didn’t know which way to take it. There have, of course, been other surprises in the last 24 hours. Australian employment numbers fell more sharply than anticipated and NZ GDP was stronger than expected, both supporting the relative stance of their respective central banks. There are lots of swings and roundabouts on the road to recovery it seems, creating a lot of investor confusion. Today was one of those days. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, September 15, 2021
High hopes or buying the dip?
Thursday 16th September 2021There’s a little more optimism in the markets this morning, particularly in US equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s no overarching good news, suggesting there’s a strong element of ‘buying the dip’. Which could mean it’s all reversed tomorrow! In fact, the news out of China was largely negative, with industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales all below expectations. The huge debts of the Evergrande Group are also likely to see authorities tightening financial controls on the construction industry. Inflation was more than expected in the UK and Canada, and will, in both cases, add fuel to the argument that their central banks will raise interest rates at least once next year. Locally, Australia’s employment data will be the numbers to watch, although they are a little out of date. US retail sales will also be one to watch. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, September 14, 2021
Has US inflation peaked?
Wednesday 15th September 2021Inflation in the US has slowed. Is this a win for those arguing it is all transitory? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what this means for the Fed and expectations of tapering. Market moves aren’t just a reaction to the US CPI, there’s also a risk-off mood driven by increasing cases of COVID in China which could cause further supply disruption. The Aussie dollar is still weak after Philip Lowe’s dovish speech at lunchtime yesterday. UK jobs numbers were strong but there are still a million job openings to be filled, by who? And today we’re expecting to see weaker activity numbers from China. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, September 13, 2021
Oil Higher and RBA’s Lowe-down
Tuesday 14th September 2021Markets are a little mixed ahead of today’s US CPI numbers. But, just how important are these numbers when the Fed is far more focused on returning the country to full employment. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says supply-led inflation is allowing the Fed to be more accommodative for longer. Oil prices hit a six week high overnight, based on supply constraints and OPEC’s expectations for increased demand. Besides US inflation numbers, the focus later will be on UK jobs numbers and, at lunchtime, a speech by the RBA’s Philip Lowe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, September 12, 2021
Three reasons to be cautious
Monday 13th September 2021Talks between Biden and Xi on Friday added to market concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was the realisation of how long it would take to resolve issues, if ever. A US investigation into Chinese state subsidies also added to the malaise. On top of that, inflation (driven by supply constraints) and the speed of economy recovery remain two other major concerns. On the price side, US PMIs were higher than expected on Friday, whilst UK GDP growth was slower than expected in July. Rodrigo says there are so many factors making the data very noisy. But if the caution is lifting the US dollar at the expense of the Aussie, is there anything that will change that in the near term? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, September 09, 2021
ECB, calibrating not tapering
Friday 10th September 2021As NAB’s Gavin Friend vehemently predicted on yesterday’s Morning Call, the ECB has announced that they will cut back purchases under their Pandemic Emergency Programme. It reflects the optimism in Europe, which is not currently matched in the US, where equities are down on the realisation that the recovery is taking time, largely driven by supply constraints that could be with us for a lot longer. There was positive news on jobs, with the weekly initial jobless claims at their lowest level since the pandemic began. US PPI, Canadian unemployment rate, UK monthly GDP and NZ credit card spending are the numbers to look for today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, September 08, 2021
Bank of Canada on pause, ECB unlikely to do the same
Thursday 9th September 2021As expected, there were no moves from the Bank of Canada overnight, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says the same will not be true for the ECB tonight. They will cut back on bond buying, he says. In fact, it’s taken longer than expected. Currency markets have been fairly quiet, with most moves happening in equities, which have adopted a more cautious air. The Fed’s Beige Book reflected some of this caution, with many consumers wary of eating out or going on holiday for fear of catching the Delta variant. There’s a rising delta between jobs advertised and employment, with the JOLTs figures showing 10.9 million openings in the US. Boris Johnson pushed ahead with his bold move of lifting taxes in the last few hours, running the risk of slowing a recovering economy. Today, Aussie weekly payrolls, China’s CPI and a speech from the RBA’S Guy Debelle. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, September 07, 2021
RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
Wednesday 8th September 2021The RBA is pushing ahead with its tapering of bond purchases, just as predicted on The Morning Call, but the bank is doing it in a very dovish fashion. There won’t be any further cuts in the quantity until February next year. Does that suggest the RBA is seeing a slower recovery? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril reads between the lines in the RBA statement yesterday, and looks at why the US markets are showing so much caution on the return from the Labor Day holiday. Plus, China’s surprise trade numbers and a look ahead to the Bank of Canada tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, September 06, 2021
COVID versus the central banks
Tuesday 7th September 2021The RBA meets today and the big question is, will they push on with their tapering schedule, reducing weekly purchases from $5b per week to $4b. NAB’s Ray Attrill says that they will, but there are concerns about the optics of making a move when the economy is in lockdown. The same question applies to the ECB later this week. Central banks have a direction they want to take, but the timing is being determined by the rise in COVID cases. On that, a rate hike by the RBNZ is looking even more likely, as the country starts to ease restrictions as cases are contained. Equities in Europe were up today, and will likely rise in the US as they return from the Labor Day holiday. That too is likely to be a response to the Fed delaying tapering, topping up the punchbowl for a while longer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, September 05, 2021
Far from substantial progress, but just a temporary setback?
Monday 6th September 2021Non-farm payrolls grew well below market expectations I the US on Friday, and are certainly not the substantial progress the Fed has been looming for. Today on The Morning Call NAB’s Tapas Strickland looks at the market response to the payrolls numbers, and other signs that the global recovery might be slowing. Is it just a transitory phase? With that in mind, what will the RBA do about tapering its bond buying, and will the ECB still ease off its purchase under its PEPP? Both meet this week, and the Fed’s Beige Book is out midweek to, to help provide some colour on the state of the US economy right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, September 02, 2021
Only currencies making moves ahead of US jobs numbers
Friday 3rd September 2021There seems to be a lot resting on tonight’s non-farm payrolls numbers from the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend what the reaction will be if the numbers come in softer or stronger than anticipated? The weekly jobless claims overnight were encouraging, showing the lowest number of new claims since the pandemic began. Whilst equities and bonds have been relatively subdued in the wait, there’s even more movement in currencies, with the Aussie dollar managing to climb back over 74 US cents. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, September 01, 2021
Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
Thursday 2nd September 2021The ADP employment numbers in the US normally play second fiddle to the non-farm payrolls, but they are out a day earlier, and overnight they only came half way to meeting expectations. NAB’s Gavin Friend says they rarely show any correlation with Friday’s numbers, but they do reflect concerns about growth inhibited by supply chain disruption. The ISM numbers also reported a reduction in employment. On today’s podcast we also look at yesterday’s GDP numbers for Australia, which were a big surprise, but less relevant with most of the population now in lockdown with no clear end date in sight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, August 31, 2021
Falling production, higher prices turns sentiment around
Wednesday 1st September 2021Markets have lost their optimism overnight. China’s PMIs came in softer than expected and Canada’s GDP, expected to grow, actually fell. Add falling consumer confidence in the US and there;s plenty of numbers for those looking at the glass half full. Inflation reared its ugly head again too, with Europe’s CPI read much more than anticipated, which could present a headache for the ECB, who had signalled that their emergency bond buying would continue through to next year. Ina amongst all of this, the Aussie and Kiwi dollars rose. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s telling as to how much pessimism and bad news was already priced into both these currencies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, August 30, 2021
Hold on for the payrolls
Tuesday 31st August 2021It’s been a quiet session overnight and NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its likely to be a quiet week in the run up to non-farm payrolls on Friday, which will give us all a clearer understanding on the speed of the US jobs recovery. The continued high COVID case numbers, a drop in air travel and the threat of an EU ban on non-essential travel from the US haven’t dented market enthusiasm, with the S&P reaching yet another record high. Locally today more GDP partials, which should give us enough data to determine whether tomorrows Q2 GDP number will be negative or positive. China’s PMI numbers will be watched keenly, whilst Chinese authorities will be keeping an eye on computer gamers! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, August 29, 2021
Powell maintains taper silence
Monday 30th August 2021The Fed chair Jerome Powell didn’t indicate any timing for tapering, as we predicted several times last week on The Morning Call. Yet the markets still reacted. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what was said that was interpreted as a more dovish stance than expected. Can the markets maintain their optimistic outlook with a more cautious Fed, and with some data suggesting growth might be slowing. With NSW recording its highest infection rate so far yesterday, and Victoria staying in lockdown beyond Thursday, can the Australian dollar hold the gains it made late last week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, August 26, 2021
Kabul blasts hit sentiment, markets hold for Powell’s taper talk
Friday 27th August 2021Market sentiment has been hit by the explosions in Kabul this morning, but NAB’s David de Garis says the response has been fairly limited. It certainly hasn’t knocked currencies and equities out of their trading ranges. No, the real focus today will be on what Jerome Powell says at tonight’s virtual Jackson Hole Symposium. Even though more hawkish members of the Fed are pushing for tapering sooner rather than later, it’s still likely that Powell will retain a wait and see approach. There’s still too much uncertainty to assume jobs will keep bouncing back at the rate we saw in the last non-farm payrolls. The next report is only a week away. Whilst the NSW Premier talks about easing restrictions, the national cabinet meets today to nut out a COVID strategy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, August 25, 2021
High hopes keep getting higher
Thursday 26th August 2021Market optimism continued overnight, with US equities again hitting new highs and commodities climbing sharply too. That's helped the Aussie dollar again today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the sentiment is being driven by infection rates starting to subside in the US. Phil Dobbie asks how fragile this optimism could be, if number were to rise again. The ECB’s Philip Lane painted a positive picture, suggesting the Delta variant won’t impact the European recovery story because fatalities and serious illness have been contained by the vaccine. He also indicated, whether through PEPP or another vehicle, they’ll be providing favourable financing conditions through to next March, at least. It’s very different to the direction being taken by the Fed, but more on that in tomorrow’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, August 24, 2021
More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar
Wednesday 25th August 2021The tide of optimism seems to have set in, with another day of rising commodity prices and a strengthening Aussie dollar. Rising iron ore prices and zero new cases in China have also helped the Aussie, as the country gets to grips with life with COVID after lockdown. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says politicians are becoming more explicit about living with the virus, with Gladys Berejiklian expected to announce on Thursday some easing measures for those vaccinated. In New Zealand a rate hike in October is very likely, with the RBNZ signalling that the delay was to do with the timing of the lockdown and little more. Australian construction work data for Q2 is out today – if the number undershoots expectations, it could be enough to push Q2 GDP into negative territory. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, August 23, 2021
Markets turn giddy on COVID news
Tuesday 24th August 2021There’s been a swift turn in market sentiment, with US equities pushing new highs and oil bouncing back sharply. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there are early signs that the rise in COVID cases in the US might have peaked, whilst the official approval of the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines might encourage more people to come forward for the jab. PMIs told a less positive story, with services growth slowing in the US and, for now, Europe seemingly showing more growth. Amongst all the commotion, bond markets remaining quiet, waiting for any hint of policy direction from Jerome Powell at this Friday’s virtual Jackson Hole symposium. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, August 22, 2021
Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped
Monday 23rd August 2021Equities recovered in the US at the end of last week as markets responded to comments from Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Fed. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the FOMC member has changed his hawkish stance, now admitting the Delta variant was dampening demand and that could slow the speed of tapering by the central bank. In Asia it’s a different story, with equities hit by further evidence of increased regulation, mixed with the slowdowns associated with a zero COVID approach that is hitting supply and production. Locally, of course, rising infection numbers and extended lockdowns will continue to hurt the Aussie economy. Today PMIs for the Eurozone, the UK and Australia will give an indication of the relative rate of recovery around the world, although possibly, a little out of date given how quickly the global situation is changing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, August 19, 2021
Commodities fall, VIX jumps, Aussie hit hard as growth concerns rise
Friday 20th August 2021There are more concerns over the global growth story, with commodity prices falling and the Aussie dollar one of the hardest hit currencies this morning. NAB’s David de Garis says China’s growth is one of the biggest concerns. Phil Dobbie asks whether expectations were set too high. COVID case rises continue to play on uncertainty, with another report showing how the efficacy of vaccines can quickly deteriorate, hence the need for booster shots. Debates over the time of the Fed’s tapering continues, but it’s unlikely we’ll hear more at Jackson Hole next week. Aussie employment numbers yesterday might have surprised on the upside, but it wasn’t as strong as the headline would suggest and, in any case, it won’t last with lockdowns continuing. Once again, COIVD cases for NSW, Victoria and NZ will be the most important numbers of the day today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, August 18, 2021
Central banks holding back
Thursday 19th August 2021The RBNZ didn’t push interest rates up yesterday, in light of the national lockdown. NAB’s David de Garis says the decision has been pushed back to October, all being well. It all depends on COVID numbers of course. Australia’s jobs numbers today are less relevant than usual given that they only covered the start of the NSW lockdown – the real numbers of concern will be infection rates. The FOMC minutes highlighted the divide that exists in the Fed on the speed of tapering, with Bullard suggesting tapering should be pushed back to next year, but finished in time for a rate hike later in the year. All this is putting markets on hold, with shares taking a knock and bond yield hardly moving. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, August 17, 2021
Will RBNZ still hike rates today, even in a lockdown?
Wednesday 18th August 2021With New Zealand in lockdown will the RBNZ still push ahead with its expected rate rise today? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says central banks take a mid-term view, and the inflation and housing pressures remain, so it’s likely they will stick with the plan, but by no means certain. US markets took a confidence hit as retail sales and the NAHB housing index both came in much lower than expected. There was further evidence of rising costs, which were also reflected in the UK’s employment numbers yesterday. Today UK inflation data is out, plus Australia’s wage price index, and the FOMC minutes. And that RBNZ decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, August 16, 2021
China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow
Tuesday 17th August 2021Markets remain unsure as to the speed of the global recovery, but there’s mounting evidence that the full extent of the rebound will be delayed. That’s obviously the case in Australia, but the US we reported on Friday’s falling consumer sentiment, overnight the Empire State manufacturing index underwhelmed. This will increase the focus on US retail sales today. Overnight, though, the response has been to data from China, where retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment – were all weaker than anticipated, with the unemployment rate ticking up a little too. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through NAB’s revised forecast for China’s growth. Locally the RBA minutes are out today, but they are somewhat out of date, given the change in circumstances. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, August 15, 2021
Back to uncertainty
Monday 16th August 2021The US dollar lost a lot of ground on Friday, with Treasury yields falling, both on the back of a much weaker than expected consumer confidence report in the US. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this is the lowest read since the pandemic began. So, will treasury yields bounce back? Supply concerns have been exacerbated by the temporary closure of one of the world’s busiest container ports, after just one COVID case. Could a zero-COVID policy from China lead to much more disruption in coming months? Locally lockdowns look set to continue for longer, but the expectation is that the economy will bounce back quickly afterwards, provided we don’t see a significant rise in unemployment. Activity numbers from China today will give an indication of the extent of the slowdown in the recovery of the global economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, August 12, 2021
On the road to nowhere
Friday 13th August 2021There was very little movement in the markets overnight, with thing trading during the northern summer, compounded by any significant news. Bond yields have edged higher, with another successful auction, whilst equities have ground higher, with new highs for the S&P. NAB’s Gavin Friend says we’re at the point of the month when things quieten down. Even news of more regulation from China did little to impact markets. UK GDP was strong and US jobless claims fell, but these, and other data points overnight, came as no surprise to anyone. So a quiet day. Enjoy it while it lasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, August 11, 2021
Inflation the way the Fed wanted it
Thursday 12th August 2021US CPI eased in July. NAB’s David de Garis says it was helped by less pressure on used car prices and airline fares, whilst food prices remain elevated. It means the Fed can focus on reaching their employment target, whatever that target is. In a speech overnight Raphael Bostic suggested it wasn’t just about hitting full employment, it was also about fixing the inequality brought about by the pandemic. Meanwhile, the market is sold on the idea of tapering starting sometime in the next few months. At home, consumer confidence fell, but optimism is greater amongst those who have had the jab. UK GDP numbers are out today and will be better than last time, simply because it covers a period when lockdowns eased. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, August 10, 2021
Will US CPI give markets the direction they are looking for?
Wednesday 11th August 2021Markets are a little more optimistic today, but there seems little rhyme nor reason. NAB’s Ray Attrill says oil has bounced back, seemingly ignoring yesterdays concerns about slowing demand from China in light of COVID cases and lockdowns, even though the situation is only getting worse. The NAB Business Survey demonstrates the extent of the situation in Australia. Could a protracted lockdown see the RBA reverse its decision to introduce tapering next month? Generally, markets are looking for direction. Even the passing of Biden’s Infrastructure Bill through the senate has seen very little response. Will the US CPI numbers today provide some direction? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, August 09, 2021
Code red, but focus is on the Fed
Tuesday 10th August 2021The UN chief has called the latest IPCC report on climate change “a code red for humanity”. The shorter timeframes for rising temperatures has not had any market influence. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, instead, the focus has been split between how quickly the Fed will introduce tapering, and concerns over whether the recovery will slow, with rising cases and more lockdowns. Oil has fallen further as flight numbers fall and the anticipation of less travel for the remainder of the year increases. Today the NAB Business Survey will reflect the lockdowns in Sydney and beyond, which Tapas points out, are likely to extend beyond the assumptions in the RBA’s latest forecasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, August 08, 2021
US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’?
Monday 9th August 2021There was a strong market reaction to Friday’s non-farm payrolls in the US, which NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says was at the top end of a broad range of expectations. The question is, does this represent the substantial progress that the FOMC is looking for before tapering bond purchases. It depends on which Fed member you are listening to. We’ve seen the response to the jobs numbers in equity markets, bond yields and the strengthening of the US dollar. That’s contributed to a weaker Aussie and Kiwi dollar, which could take another hit from weaker trade data from China over the weekend. So, will the Aussie recover? Protracted lockdowns will have an impact, with NAB at odds with the RBA on near term growth. How quick the recovery, obviously depends on vaccine rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, August 05, 2021
Watch Germany go
Friday 6th August 2021I amongst the mixed data from the US – including signs that the job recovery is slowing - and the varied opinions of central bankers, take a look at what’s happening in Germany. Factory orders came bouncing back in June and Google mobility data is showing most people are heading back to work. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this adds to the strong GDP numbers last week. The extent to which these surpassed US growths hasn’t been given enough consideration, he says. Also today, the Bank of England ups its inflation forecast to 4% by the end of the year and all eyes will be on the non-farms payrolls data tonight – with a wide range of predictions, so take your pick! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, August 04, 2021
Jobs boost for NZ, whilst US jobs fail to pick up
Thursday 5th August 2021The New Zealand unemployment rate has fallen sharply, adding more to the expectation that the RBNZ will lift interest rates next month. NAB’s David de Garis says the markets have now priced it in at more than 100 percent. US jobs, however, are taking longer to recover. The ADP employment report saw far fewer new jobs than expected. Although all eyes are on the more credible non-farm payrolls number on Friday, the ADP report did knock the S&P off its record high. Today, the Bank of England meets, although we can’t expect them to be signalling anything of significance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, August 03, 2021
A tale of two central banks, both focused on a strong recovery
Wednesday 4th August 2021Central banks seem to be taking a very optimistic view of the rate of recovery right now. The RBA has decided it will push ahead with its tapering of asset purchases, despite the protracted Sydney lockdown. The RBNZ’s Governor Orr has as good as said that the central bank will lift interest rates next month. The direction taken by the US Fed will be dependent on jobs numbers, making the non-farm payrolls data all that more important at the end of the week. Meanwhile US equities have bounced back as investors take stock of strong corporate earnings. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive earnings surprise for Q2. Of concern, though, are rising infection rates in China. Mass cancellation of flights has been influential in the fall in oil prices again overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, August 02, 2021
More caution on manufacturing undershoot
Tuesday 3rd August 2021There was a sharp drop in Treasury yields soon after the release of the ISM Manufacturing numbers from the US. The expectation was that they would rise slightly, but they actually fell. Although still in expansionary territory NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it adds to the narrative that the speed of recovery is slowing. It was compounded further with weaker Caixin PMI manufacturing numbers from China. At home the RBA is fully expected to reverse its plans to start tapering its bond purchases from September, as NSW focuses more on increasing the vaccine rate as the only way out of lockdown. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, August 01, 2021
Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?
Monday 2nd August 2021Iron ore prices fell below U$200 on Friday as China indicated that they would be cutting demand. It hit the Aussie dollar on Friday, which was already suffering as virus cases mounted in several parts of the country and no immediate escape plan for the Sydney lockdown. Today, Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the Aussie dollar could fall to 73 cents again this week, or lower, and whether that’s such a problem, given it has spent much of the last few years below that level. Also today, how Friday’s data showed that Europe is gaining momentum over the US on the recovery race. And mixed messaging from the Fed, but tapering is not likely to start anytime soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, July 29, 2021
US GDP was better than it looks
Friday 30th July 2021Markets have had a chance to absorb the dovish sentiment from the Fed yesterday and take stock of mixed data overnight. On the surface US GDP numbers looked weaker than anticipated, but a chunk of that was influenced by lower inventory and trade numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend explains how consumption and investment was actually much higher than anticipated. He says we can expect a strong GDP read for the Euro are later today, where vaccine levels are picking up. Markets have also been soothed from conciliatory messages from China regarding overseas investors. The Aussie dollar showed slower growth on the back of a weaker US dollar, as the question remains, how long will the Sydney lockdown really last? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, July 28, 2021
Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’
Thursday 29th July 2021There was a tame response to the FOMC statement this morning, but a more marked reaction during the press conference that followed. NAB’s David de Garis says the turning point was Powell’s remark that there was some ground to cover when it came to reaching full employment. Also on today’s podcast, discussion on yesterday’s Aussie CPI numbers, and how the widening trade deficit has seen a downgrade to US GDP expectations later today. And the US infrastructure bill might finally be voted on, but we’ll explain why markets are unlikely to be too interested. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, July 27, 2021
Rocky road for China investors
Wednesday 28th July 2021Whilst US equities edged to all-time highs, the real yields on US Treasuries sank to new lows. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how expectations for tapering by the Fed could be pushed back, as the recovery slows. The take-up of vaccines in the US isn’t helping, with the seven-day average of daily jabs now at the lowest level since early January. In the UK infection rates are falling – but still very high – but hospitalisations are increasing. Whilst in the Sydney region lockdowns are likely to last longer, with almost 400k people claiming disaster payments, according to today’s AFR. So, plenty of reason for caution, and the waiting game is on for the response from the Fed later this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, July 26, 2021
Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows
Tuesday 27th July 2021Whilst US equities edged to all-time highs, the real yields on US Treasuries sank to new lows. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how expectations for tapering by the Fed could be pushed back, as the recovery slows. The take-up of vaccines in the US isn’t helping, with the seven-day average of daily jabs now at the lowest level since early January. In the UK infection rates are falling – but still very high – but hospitalisations are increasing. Whilst in the Sydney region lockdowns are likely to last longer, with almost 400k people claiming disaster payments, according to today’s AFR. So, plenty of reason for caution, and the waiting game is on for the response from the Fed later this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, July 25, 2021
High hopes, big concerns and fewer babies
Monday 26th July 2021Last week markets were pulled between concerns over the rise of the Delta variant and the encouragement of strong corporate earnings data. This week could go either way, with significant earnings to come, and mixed opinions on the direction the virus will take. In today’s podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland looks at the latest vaccine efficacy numbers and the influence on the Aussie dollar. Which was one of the biggest losers last week. We also look at the PMIs from Friday shows, which suggest Europe might have the edge on the US for growth. And the American economy has something else to contend with, slower population growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, July 22, 2021
Strong earnings, cautious ECB and NZ’s first day without QE
Friday 23rd July 2021Equities have been helped by earnings results and a little less COVID concern. On the macro front US jobless claims rose unexpectedly, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says a lot of it will be to do with seasonal adjustments related to the annual auto-tooling shutdowns. The ECB held its first meeting since it’s new straight 2 percent target, but little will change in the short term. The UK economy could be hit by track and trace ‘pings’ that are spreading like wildfire. Aussie payrolls numbers yesterday reflected the current shutdowns, which are likely to go on for much longer. Over the water New Zealand has its first day without QE – we look at the market response. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, July 21, 2021
Risk back on with rebound expectations
Thursday 22nd July 2021The rebound from the COVID concerns at the start of the week is now complete, with bond yields rebounding further overnight, equities bouncing higher and commodities on the rise. NAB’s David de Garis talks about how businesses are seeing the recovery happen, even where he is in London. Globally, it seems the expectation is that COIVD won’t hinder a global recovery, particularly as vaccine numbers rise. So what does that mean for the ECB today, particularly if growth is expected to rise and their outlook remains dovish? And Brexit is back, struggling over the NI border issue that was never resolved, perhaps because there isn’t an answer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, July 20, 2021
Markets recover, but why?
Wednesday 21st July 2021Curiously, much of the negative market reaction at the start of the week has seen a reversal in the last 24 hours, even though the reasons for the concern remain. The Delta variant continues to spread, vaccination rates have slowed, and case numbers are rising. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if he can explain the switch in direction, with the response far stronger for equities than it is for bond traders. They also discuss the next moves for the RBA, with more lockdowns across Australia, and what to expect from the ECB tomorrow. Plus, Aussie retail sales numbers are out today. However poor they are for June, we know July will be worse. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, July 19, 2021
Markets Hit by the Delta Blues
Tuesday 20th July 2021There’s not been a lot of economic data around, but markets have dipped sharply on the back of rising COVID cases. NABs Tapas Strickland says its being driven by the preponderance of the Delta variant. Oil is also down, in part because of the OPEC deal discussed yesterday, but also expectations of a slower global economic recovery and less international travel. Further tensions with China are adding to the uncertainty, with the US now implicating Chinese nations in the hacking of Microsoft servers earlier in the year. This will add to the tensions between Australia and China. A quiet day today, with the RBA minutes from a meeting that won’t have reflected the growing global concerns, which could delay the bank’s decision of when to taper asset purchases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, July 18, 2021
OPEC drip feeds more oil
Monday 19th July 2021OPEC reached a deal of sorts over the weekend which will see supplies increase incrementally over the next few months. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril said markets had been expecting a deal of this magnitude, so it has done little (so far) to oil prices. Meanwhile, COVID caution continues to rein over the markets, with a stronger US dollar and a weaker Aussie. US retail numbers were strong on Friday, but we discuss Google data which suggests store visits are plateauing below pre-COVID levels in most parts of the world. New Zealand’s strong inflation numbers at the end of last week cemented the likelihood of action by the RBNZ, and this week will be the ECB’s first change to issue guidance reflecting its new strategy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, July 15, 2021
Cautious for no clear reason
Friday 16th July 2021Markets returned to a more cautious outlook overnight, with US equities losing ground and bond yields falling. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, its difficult to find any particular reason for the change in sentiment, other than a return to concerns over COVID and the speed of economic recovery. There wasn’t anything in day two of Jerome Powell’s testimonies to cause concern and US data overnight was largely positive. The Aussie dollar felt the impact of the mood of the day, even though there was a very strong set of employment numbers yesterday. The UK’s employment numbers told a different story. And data from China suggest the slowdown is not as bad as feared, but likely to be enough to spark more stimulus from the PBoC. Today, the NZ CPI read will be the focus of attention. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, July 14, 2021
More inflation, RBNZ moves first
Thursday 15th July 2021There’s a world of difference in the approaches being taken by central banks in response to the COVID recovery. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through some of them, starting with the RBNZ announcing bond buying will end next week, leaving the door open for rate rises as soon as August. The Bank of Canada is also tapering its asset purchases. Yet, as inflation rises, the Fed’s Jerome Powell has been reiterating to Congress that tapering will not start anytime soon. The UK also saw inflation rise yesterday, but the BoE is not in any hurry to change direction, neither is the RBA. Who’s got the right idea? Today we will see jobs numbers for Australia and the UK, plus the weekly unemployment claims for the US, and a heap of data from China, including Q2 GDP. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, July 13, 2021
Another US inflation surprise. Still transitory?
Wednesday 14th July 2021US inflation has surprised again. It was expected to ease back after the 5% jump last month, but this time its higher still. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this will be enough for the Fed to be forced into tapering sooner than intended, or is it still transitory? As luck would have it, Jerome Powell is talking to Congress later today, so maybe we’ll get an inkling of a change in timelines. Also today, decisions from RBNZ and the Bank of Canada, two central banks in more of a hurry than most. Plus, China’s trade numbers, the NAB business survey and the Bank of England’s stability review. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, July 12, 2021
Stocks high on earning hopes; times changing for ECB
Tuesday 13th July 2021US stocks hit new highs as Q2 earnings season kicks off. NAB’s said it also reflects a recovery from Asia emanating from China’s easing of reserve requirements. China will be a focus today, too, with the release of trade data. US CPI is also out today. Could a combination of weaker earnings reports, a fall in trade to and from China and/or a higher-than-expected CPI dampen the mood? The other significant news overnight has been Christine Lagarde’s Bloomberg interview were she spoke about PEPP continuing in some form from 2022. Will we see central banks taking a more dovish stance as COVID numbers continue to raise concern? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, July 11, 2021
Delta’s day off
Monday 12th July 2021For most of last week markets grew increasingly cautious about the spread of the Delta variant and fears of further lockdowns in major economies, Australia included. On Friday, though, that all changed, with bond yields rising, equities breaking new highs, the US dollar back on the rise, but the Aussie also doing well along with other commodity currencies. This morning, NAB’s Ray Attrill looks for reasons behind the shift in sentiment, including better credit numbers from China and a more extensive and sharper than expected cut in the reserve requirement ratio for Chinese banks. So, has the mood shifted? It’s a busy week ahead, including US CPI numbers, which markets have been particularly sensitive too recently. Who’s to say caution doesn’t swiftly return on the back of more virus news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, July 08, 2021
2 percent or not 2 percent, that is the question
Friday 9th July 2021Is it below 2 percent or at 2 percent? The ECB has made subtle changes to its inflation target, but has flatly rejected the Fed approach of average inflation targeting. NAB’s David de Garis explains what’s changed in the ECB’s approach. Plus words from Philip Lowe yesterday about the RBA’s reluctance to shift policy until unemployment is (much) lower. Plus, oil up as US supplies fall, and the reflation trade takes a breather as COVID concerns rise. Listen in for the detail. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, July 07, 2021
Fed minutes trumped by ECB strategy review
Thursday 8th July 2021The FOMC minutes were released this morning, but a more significant central bank release could be out later in the day. Christine Lagarde is said to be released the outcome of the ECB’s extensive strategy review. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks to Phil Dobbie about what’s likely to be in it and how much of it could be market changing. The Fed minutes meanwhile, had little impact on the markets, which continue to exercise caution as further data suggests a slowdown in the speed of the global economic recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, July 06, 2021
Markets cautious on numerous fronts; RBA focuses on data not dates
Wednesday 7th July 2021Bond yields have fallen markedly as markets adopt a more cautious air. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s being driven by a number of factors, including weaker than expected ISM services numbers from the US and factory orders from Germany. The main concern in the ISM was the employment data which dropped below 50, reinforcing the belief that there is a constraint in the availability of labour. A more controlling influence from China, the growth of a more virulent COIVD strain and the uncertainty over an OPEC deal have all added to the caution. So will a strong JOLTs number and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting do anything for turn the sentiment around today? There’s also discussion on yesterday’s RBA meeting, which left the door open to earlier rate rises and tapering of QE, driven by data not dates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, July 05, 2021
Freedom Day for the UK, D-Day for the RBA
Tuesday 6th July 2021Boris Johnson has told the UK public that they are just two weeks away from removing their masks, getting back to work and forgetting about social distancing. Within reason. Is this why the pound had such a strong day today, on what’s been a quiet session with the US holiday. Today, we know something will change with the RBA. That’s why Philip Lowe has scheduled a press conference this afternoon. But what exactly will be decided? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the possibilities. More importantly, what will cause the market to react? And oil rises sharply as OPEC+ talks fall apart. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sun, July 04, 2021
Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks
Monday 5th July 2021Not too strong not too light, that seems to be the view of the non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday. It wasn’t strong enough to signal change in the Fed’s direction says NAB’s Tapas Strickland. At the current pace, he said, it would take eight months to get back to the pre-pandemic level for payrolls. There’s also discussion about changes expected from the RBA tomorrow. It’s been well signalled that there will be policy changes. Tapas says, given the improvements in the Australian economy, the need to run QE at $100 billion every six months is not there anymore. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Thu, July 01, 2021
The last day of treading water
Friday 2nd July 2021Markets have been treading water all week waiting for the non-farm payrolls data, particularly in bond yields which hardly moved at all in the last 2 4hours. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there’s been a lot of data for markets to chew over too, some of it below expectations, some of it over. Markets are clearly looking for direction and hoping that payrolls will provide it. In the podcast we also look at yesterday’s manufacturing, trade, dwellings and job vacancy numbers from Australia – all good, although the Aussie dollar was one of the weaker currencies overnight. Why? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Wed, June 30, 2021
Ignoring the talk, waiting for the facts
Thursday 1st July 2021As we’ve mentioned before, central bank speakers are having little influence on the markets since the sharp response to the last FOMC meeting. As David de Garis says on today’s podcast, investors should wait for the evidence, with the non-farm payrolls on Friday the next significant cab off the rank. The ADP numbers overnight were down on April, and could be revised down further, as is often the case. There’s also discussion about weakness in the Aussie dollar, despite the iron ore price, Andy Haldane’s parting words from the Bank of England and uncertainty over China’s growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Tue, June 29, 2021
Confidence rising, but so is the Delta strain
Wednesday 30th June 2021Markets have largely moved sideways, pulled between rising confidence numbers in the US and Europe, and concerns about rising cases of the Delta strain. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains, the Conference Board’s labour market differential index, which looks at the ratio between those who see jobs as being plentiful and this finding them hard to get, came in at the highest level since 2000. Also today, discussion on Christine Lagarde’s green plans for Europe, the direction of the Chinese economy and house price concerns. Today, Australian Private Sector Credit will be of interest along with the ADP jobs numbers for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mon, June 28, 2021
Reflation retreats a little as virus spreads further
Tuesday 29th June 2021A little more cautiousness has crept back into the markets says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, although it might be as much to do with the prelude to the non-farm payrolls numbers at the end of the week as it is to do with rising infection rates as lockdowns. On today’s podcast we look at vaccine numbers and what needs to happen to see economies can on full footing. Plus, Tapas’ taker on yesterday’s Intergenerational Report for Australia. Germany’s CPI numbers will be watched closely today, as do all inflation numbers lately. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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