Disorder
Gone are the days of coherent international coordination. Rather than working together to solve pressing crises, many of the world’s most powerful states are actively making those crises worse. The result? We’re living through a novel historical era: The Global Enduring Disorder. The Disorder podcast teases out the key principles that connect seemingly disparate challenges: from Climate Change to Tax Havens, to Unregulated Cyberspace, to the Wars in Ukraine, Syria, and Libya. Jason Pack, NATO Foundation Senior Analyst, and Alexandra Hall Hall, a former British Ambassador, discuss with world-leading experts, senior diplomats and cultural icons, the fundamental principles lurkin...
S1 E110 · Tue, April 01, 2025
Ep110. Ransomware in our age of Disorder with RUSI’s Jamie MacColl
On 3 June 2024, Synnovis, a provider of pathology services to the NHS in London, detected the first stages of a ransomware attack. The ransomware quickly spread through Synnovis’ networks, encrypting systems and stealing sensitive data. Not for the first time, a ransomware attack had become a matter of life and death. The attack, which was later claimed by Qilin, a Russian-speaking cybercriminal gang, was a stark example of how cybercrime has become a national security threat. Attacks against hospitals, schools and businesses of all shapes and sizes have normalised what should be intolerable: cybercriminals, in many cases harboured by hostile states, regularly disrupting and extorting victims, causing misery in the process and creating disorder for the UK economy and society. To help us understand this challenge, and as part of our ongoing series of episodes featuring top experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Arthur was joined by Jamie MacColl, a Research Fellow in Cyber and Tech at RUSI. Jamie's research focuses on the national security implications of cybercrime, including the relationships between hostile states and cybercriminals. He has given evidence on ransomware on more than one occasion to the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy and also represents RUSI at the Counter Ransomware Initiative, a multilateral grouping of more than 80 countries committed to combating ransomware. Prior to working at RUSI, Jamie worked as a cyber threat intelligence analyst in the private sector. When not working on cybercrime, he is the guitarist in the British band Bombay Bicycle Club. They discuss the current state of ransomware, its scale and impact, the role played by rogue states such as Russia and North Korea, and the reasons for the lack of coordinated international progress in combating the issue. Finally, as Jamie and Arthur order the disorder, Jamie proposes moving our response to ransomware from the current failing law enforcement model, to an intelligence and counter-terrorism led approach. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links: More on the RUSI Disorder partnership - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast Become RUSI members for more of their brilliant content: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html Follow Arthur’s pod Behind The Lines: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bpdB1iEN3irFueS5CMuq5 High-level summaries on ransomware as a national security threat: <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2023/12/31/how-ransomware
S1 E109 · Thu, March 27, 2025
Ep109. Sir Bill Browder, Stephanie Baker, and Jason LIVE from the Frontline Club
Can Britain and the EU step up to Trump's bullying and order the disorder via increasing sanctions and possibly confiscating currently frozen Russian assets and using them to fund Ukrainian defence? This is certainly the question of the day and we at Disorder tackle it via our first live show recorded on March 21 at the famous Frontline Club in London. Jason Pack was joined by Sir Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker, author of Punishing Putin. The trio discussed the role of sanctions in deterring Putin, and whether the West can finally go further and use seized Russian funds. Plus: Trump’s role – and if Europe (alongside Starmer and Carney) will finally step up to the plate. And they finish with listener questions addressing everything from what happens when Putin dies to if sanctions even work in the first place. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links: Hear our other recent episode with Sir Bill https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/84604876351c72eed9ce64fd4031a343 Hear our previous episode with Stephanie Baker https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/d478c812a95d36c7ee6bf7c7beef4ccf For more on Stephanie visit https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/ Read Sir Bill’s piece calling for Russian asset seizure: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14418689/UK-Europe-Russia-frozen-billions-Ukraine-noble-cause.html And his article co-authored with a leading Ukranian lawyer, Yulia Ziskina calling for seizure of Russia’s state assets: https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-22/if-trump-cuts-ukraine-aid-the-west-should-seize-russian-assets Watch United States has ‘abandoned Ukraine’ | Bill Browder https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImN1fFJKHIc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E108 · Tue, March 25, 2025
Ep108. (Part 2) How to Combat Extreme Ideas with Julia Ebner
This is the second part of a two-part interview with Julia Ebner -- the princess of extremist infiltration, the queen of counter radicalization, and author of Going Mainstream: Why Extreme Ideas are Spreading, and What We Can Do About It. Please listen to Part 1 before coming to this episode. In this conversation, Julia and Jason focus on how extreme ideas enter the mainstream and the implications of the concept of the ‘Overton Window’ [more on that in the links below] for how the boundaries of acceptable political discourse change as ever more extreme ideas are articulated. Jason pushes Julia to draw on her undercover work among the incel community to explain their worldview and the centrality of the concept of being red-pilled. And as they Order the Disorder, they discuss the importance of defending expertise in public discourse and Julia proposes an institution that could prevent people from falling into conspiracy theories. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links: For an explanation of the Overton window visit https://theweek.com/102517/the-overton-window-explained For more on Julia visit https://www.julia-ebner.com/speaker For a great video about her life and experiences: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y4Kv6P6VII Get Julia’s book ‘Going Mainstream: Why extreme ideas are spreading, and what we can do about it’ - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Going-Mainstream-extreme-ideas-spreading/dp/1804183784 Read Jason’s article, ‘A lizard person’s guide to US election conspiracy theories’ in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/ Listen: Episode 77 - The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cc41cbf3e1c05fb8a696e0faad151283 This is the second part of a two-part interview with Julia Ebner -- the princess of extremist infiltration, the queen of counter radicalization, and author of Going Mainstream: Why Extreme Ideas are Spreading, and What We Can Do About It. Please listen to Part 1 before coming to this episode. <
S1 E107 · Tue, March 18, 2025
Ep107. (Part 1) The Hidden Logic of Extremist Conspiracy Theories with Julia Ebner
Extremist ideologies and the conspiracy vehicles that carry them are now heard throughout mainstream social and political discourse. Whether it’s Trump parroting falsehoods about migrants eating dogs and cats or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. parroting debunked claims about how vaccines cause autism, extreme viewpoints cloaked in conspiracy theories are now frequently articulated by those in offices of power. How has this happened? When did the extremes become mainstream? And what draws people to these radical ways of thinking in the first place? Then as we delve deeper why do extremists so frequently rely on conspiracy theories to articulate their political programs? Why don’t they come out and just voice the radical or exclusionary political program directly? Why do they conceal it via complex conspiracy theories about Lizards, Pedophilia rings, and a Jewish plot to dilute the purity of the white race? This is the first episode of a two-part interview with Julia Ebner -- the princess of extremist infiltration, the queen of counter radicalization, and author of Going Mainstream: Why Extreme Ideas are Spreading, and What We Can Do About It. The duo delve into the intricate relationship between conspiracy theories and extremist ideologies. Analysing how conspiracy theories serve as a unifying force among various radical groups, by providing a framework for scapegoating and explaining grievances. Plus: the psychological appeal of conspiracy myths, their role in modern political movements, and the historical context that shapes these narratives Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links: For more on Julia visit https://www.julia-ebner.com/speaker Get Julia’s book ‘Going Mainstream: Why extreme ideas are spreading, and what we can do about it’ - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Going-Mainstream-extreme-ideas-spreading/dp/1804183784 Read Jason’s article, ‘A lizard person’s guide to US election conspiracy theories’ in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/ Listen: Episode 77 - The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cc41cbf3e1c05fb8a696e0faad151283 For a great video about her life
S1 E106 · Thu, March 13, 2025
Ep106. Europe’s Role In the Battle For an Orderly World - Disorder LIVE SHOW
In this special episode of Disorder, you can hear some of the highlights from our first ever live show event at RUSI. To start things off, Jason Pack was joined on stage by his fellow co-hosts, Alex Hall Hall, Jane Kinninmont and Arthur Snell. The panel discussed how they experience Disorder in their own lives, as well as what they perceive makes this historic period novel. Then, Jane and Alex departed the stage, while Arthur and Jason were joined by Neil Melvin, RUSI’s Director of International Security. The trio investigated if Trump actually has a grand strategy and is deliberately accelerating the long durée US pivot to Asia or if he is merely a strategic-less deliberate Disorderer. Then the trio looked at the role Europe plays in global security, while Neil and Jason had an agreeable -- and not even staged -- disagreement about the ideal position the UK can play in global security – should the UK continue cozying up to the US? Or seek to counterbalance it by forging new relationships and convening a coalition of orderers? Lastly, the recording ends with a Lord of the Rings-themed question from a Mega-Ordering audience member. If you would like to hear the rest of the audience questions and have access to the full recording, please join the pay for substack. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack (paid members can listen to the whole unedited event including listener q and a): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links: More on the RUSI Disorder partnership - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast Become RUSI members for more of their brilliant content: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html And From Neil Melvin Read: Europe's attitude to Trump is dangerously naive. He demands action, not words : https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/12/21/europes-attitude-trump-dangerously-naive-he-demands-action/ And for more on Neil’s bio: https://www.rusi.org/people/melvin Read Jane’s piece about OSCE’s potential role - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/its-time-to-use-the-osce/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices</a
S1 E105 · Tue, March 11, 2025
Ep105. Neoliberalism: The Ultimate Disorderer? With George Monbiot
Forget Christianity, Judaism, New Age Spirituality, and Buddhism, a new type of religion drives 21st century Western thought. It goes by the shadowy name of Neoliberalism: the commodification of everything; Markets and the private sector ascendent; The deliberate attempt to reduce – especially through privatisation and austerity – state power, regulatory capacity, and government’s ability to influence the economy. Over the past few decades, from Thatcher and Reagan, to Blair and Clinton, the whole world was incentivized to embrace neoliberal reforms. The result? Our public services are crumbling. Governments have lost the ability to build roads and hospitals. Governments are no longer driving cutting edge innovation. And a new class of super rich neoliberal oligarchs – Musk, the Koch brothers, Bezos, Zuckerburg, and the cryptobros – are spreading Disorder. To help us find governmental Order amidst all this privatized Disorder, Jason is joined by George Monbiot -- Guardian columnist and co-author of ‘The Invisible Doctrine: The Secret History of Neoliberalism (& How It Came to Control Your Life)’. In their conversation, the duo chart the evolution of neoliberalism and how it has shifted core governance functions (like transport, health care, and security) from the public sector to private enterprises, leading to a new form of oligarchy. Plus: they look at the failures of centrist politicians to come up with compelling alternatives and they hypothesize about the psychological motivations of the wealthy elite. Finally, as they Order the Disorder, they put forward the need for a new political narrative that emphasises community and solidarity - especially on a local level. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links: Get George Monbiot and Peter Hutchison’s book The Invisible Doctrine: The Secret History of Neoliberalism (& How It Came to Control Your Life) - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/455534/the-invisible-doctrine-by-hutchison-george-monbiot-and-peter/9780241635902 For more on the New Books Network which runs lots of podcasts about every sort of topic - https://newbooksnetwork.com/ And for an NBN podcast on the historic origins of neo-liberalism check out: https://newbooksnetwork.com/neoliberalism Read George’s piece - Trump and Musk have launched a new class war. In the UK, we must pre
S1 E104 · Tue, March 04, 2025
Ep104. Trump and Putin - the Bromance reignited: with Sir Bill Browder
When it comes to Russia, Trump’s America appears on the verge of a major foreign policy U-turn. A couple of weeks ago, Trump called Zelenskyy a dictator and lyingly claimed that Ukraine had started the war. Then there was the February 28 ‘Oval Office Ambush’ heard round the world. Don’t forget that after years of isolating and sanctioning Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Team Trump met face to face with the Russian Foreign Minister in Saudi and now appears ready to do direct business with Russia and to be actively seeking to humiliate the Ukrainians. Despite these worrying moves, at the moment, the U-turn remains hypothetical… all words, not yet binding actions. So… how seriously should we take this perspective shift? Does the ‘Vance/Trump Oval Office Ambush’ change everything? And what are the implications for Europe and its allies if America actually switches sides to support Russia long term? To discuss this perilous moment, we’re joined again by Sir Bill Browder, a successful investor, a globally acclaimed author, and a famous philanthropist/humanitarian advocate. Browder’s tireless advocacy for holding dictators and their henchman to account is widely known. He was a guest on the Disorder programme in Ep 26, a few days after his friend Alexei Navalny was murdered by Putin. [NB: the interview at the core of this episode was recorded on Feb 26 before the Oval Office Trump/Zelenskyy/Vance meeting.] Today, Jason and Sir Bill discuss the transactional nature of Trump 2.0 and the seek to work out whether the recently announced Ukraine mineral deal actually amounts to a hill of beans. Browder emphasizes the unpredictability of the situation, the moral implications of Trump’s proposed U-turn. Finally: as they Order the Disorder, Bill and Jason discuss the practicalities of how to turn confiscate currently frozen Russian assets and use them to fund Ukrainian defence. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to attend our March 11th event at RUSI): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links: Jason’s substack on the the Oval Office Trump/Vance ambush of Zelenskyy: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/he-may-not-be-a-russian-agent-but For a podcast produced out of Kyiv and dedicated just to the War in Ukraine: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/history-in-the-making-the-war-in-ukraine/id1752915858 Watch Bloomberg Editor Javier Blas on the fact that Ukraine doesn’t have any significant rare earths: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=nqJ6Vgetyn8&t=23s&fbclid=Iw
Thu, February 27, 2025
Ep103 Navigating Political Backlash and Keir Starmer's Mega Ordering Opportunity
Today, Jason and Alexandra answer some probing listener questions. They discuss the role of the UK in global politics, and the implications of Brexit. Dissect the challenges of maintaining progressive values amidst backlash, and the potential for Keir Starmer's leadership in navigating the UK's future relationship with the EU. They finish by talking about tax breaks for billionaires, and why following the money is important to understanding the Disorder we are living through. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack to get details of our March 11th event at RUSI: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Tue, February 25, 2025
Ep102 An All-American constitutional crisis?
Description: As Trump and his cronies attempt to tear down all the checks and balances which have traditionally governed how the Executive relates to other branches of American governance, especially over the issue of impoundment, will the Courts or Congress genuinely stand up? If they don’t, or are unable to, is America facing a genuine constitutional crisis? Or is the issue not so much a constitutional crisis but a coordination one - and because we’re in an era of peak disorder – Congress, the Courts, the Dems, popular opposition, protesters, Lincoln Project people, business advocates of non-monopolistic competition – aren’t able to coordinate coherently enough to make a difference? Also why are there not massive popular protests across America, or is now not the right time for them? This week, Jason and Alex unpack these issues and more as they try to navigate listeners through the choppy seas of peak Disorder washing over the world. They reflect on the impact of recent Trump policies to defund USAID and undermine Ukraine, debating whether there’s any real coherent end goal to these radical policies beyond strewing Disorder. They also debate whether Trump’s America First agenda makes America stronger or weaker. Jason explains the importance of Russell Vought within Trump’s team, while arguing that Neo-populism isn’t actually about any real solutions or making America Stronger, but is merely about increasing the ‘Disorder and Distraction quotient’ to keep the Neo-populists in power. Meanwhile, Alex and Jason argue that the Democratic Party needs to coalesce around a single ‘leader of the opposition’ type-figure to prosecute the case against Trump’s actions. They also dive into Lala-land with their alter-egos, Xela Llah Llah and Nosaj Kcap. They finish not by Ordering the Disorder, but by diagnosing exactly why the world is living through peak Disorder. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to attend our March 11th event at RUSI): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links To examine the real architect of the Disorder, listen to the Today Explained episode about Russell Vought https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-explained/id1346207297?i=1000693687429 To grasp the constitutional implications of what is transpiring, listen to the excellent 538 podcast with Galen Druke interviewing constitutional law professor Peter Shane https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trumps-theory-of-presidential-power/id1077418457?i=1000693800713 Read more from RUSI: by Jack Watling ‘US C
S1 E101 · Tue, February 18, 2025
Ep101 Munich Security Conference 2025 – What does it mean for European Security?
In Munich last weekend, J.D. Vance shocked Europe with his speech castigating Europeans as having the ‘wrong values’ and not being ‘democratic’. Meanwhile, Trump and co. are doing the very democratic thing by being in Saudi Arabia and negotiating with Putin over Ukraine behind Zelenskyy’s back – possibly presaging ‘a deal’ that will be struck excluding Ukrainian input at all. As this episode drops, European leaders are finally trying to get out in front of events by meeting in Paris in an emergency summit, to counter with their own ‘peace proposal’ that would actually be beneficial for Ukraine’s future. Disorderly much? In this episode of Disorder, Jane Kinninmont tries to navigate these complexities in conversation with Jason Pack, as she brings us her personal reportage from last weekend’s Munich Security Conference. During her visit there, we hear three on-the-spot interviews (Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak; Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defence minister; and Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, head of special projects at the Institute of Security Studies) - discussing the shifting dynamics of US-European relations, the implications of Trump 2.0 on the Ukraine conflict, and the urgent need for Europe to reassess its defense priorities in light of potential US unpredictability. Plus: in an attempt to Order the Disorder, what can be done to foster unity among European nations? Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Read more from RUSI: by Jack Watling ‘US Clarity Underscores Ukraine’s Peril’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/us-clarity-underscores-ukraines-peril Also by Jack but in the Guardian: ‘As the US walks away, Europe needs to step up for Ukraine. But does it have the will?’, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/us-europe-ukraine-russia-peace-analysis And from Neil Melvin (our guest on our March 11 live recording) ‘Securing Ukraine is the UK’s Challenge, but It Needs to be Done Right’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/securing-ukraine-uks-challenge-it-needs-be-done-right For more on Jane’s interviewees and their outputs: Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak - https://x.com/leshchenkos?lang=en Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defence minister:
S1 E100 · Tue, February 11, 2025
Ep100. Britain's Military: A Tool for Global Ordering?
With a major war raging in Europe, a seemingly more expansionist Trump in the Whitehouse, and China’s long held desire to invade Taiwan, is Britain prepared militarily? It’s hard to tell. The current Labour government is still refusing to set out in detail its plans for Defence, including when it might increase spending to 2.5% of GDP. Instead, we are left waiting for the publication of a new Strategic Defence Review. So are Starmer and co missing an opportunity to be mega Orderers? To understand these issues and more, for our first episode in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), we’re joined by Matthew Savill. He’s the Director of Military Sciences at the London-based defence and security think tank. His team focusses on understanding trends in modern warfare and its impact on military strategy, capabilities and planning. Before joining RUSI he spent over 20 years in national security roles in government, starting as an intelligence analyst, and later moving on to policy and operations, working in both the Ministry of Defence and the UK Cabinet Office, and on deployments in Iraq, the Middle East and Afghanistan. Jason and Matthew discuss on the UK's role in defense and security, the challenges faced by the UK in military procurement and capabilities, and the need for the UK to maintain its status as a major global player. They compare the approaches in France and the UK, and whether we’re in a potential pre-war era, and whether Britain needs to maintain independent military capacities. As they Order the Disorder, they look at whether AI could be the way Britain becomes Mega Orderers, and Matthew leaves with a message for Starmer: invest in people. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links More on our partnership with RUSI - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast Read Matthew’s analysis, Starmer’s New National Security Adviser: A Consequential Choice - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/starmers-new-national-security-adviser-consequential-choice Read Matthew’s piece, A Hollow Force? Choices for the UK Armed Forces - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/hollow-force-choices-uk-armed-forces Read The Disintegrated Review? Br
S1 E99 · Thu, February 06, 2025
Ep.99 The New Age of Political Influence
We’re entering a new age of political influence, where money generates attention, and attention generates influence. In this meta-verse, old fashion regulations about lobbying and advertising are no longer suffiecnet and people like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg rule the roost. So, what can be done? To find out, Jane Kinninmont is joined by returning guest Peter Geoghegan, an Irish writer, journalist, and director of Democracy for Sale. The duo discuss: the pervasive influence of money in UK politics, how money buys attention and then indirectly influence, and this constellations implications for democracy. Peter tells Jane about the rise of super donors in UK politics and how social media algorithms spread Disorder. To finish, they look at how to Order the Disorder. Peter pushes for transparency in governance, and tells Kier Starmer to put a spending cap on individual’s political donations. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Hear our Previous episode with Peter - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a50fd0d6c8ad45567cac6b47cf060d4e Peter’s website - https://www.petergeoghegan.com/ Peter’s substack - https://democracyforsale.substack.com/ RUSI’s Centre for Finance and Security specialises in the intersection of finance and global security. Their research includes work exploring the nature of the threat from global illicit flows, the harm they cause and how best to respond - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/research-groups/centre-for-finance-and-security Listen to Ezra Klein talking about the attention cycle - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/democrats-are-losing-the-war-for-attention-badly/id1548604447?i=1000684362481 Read Anne Applebaum’s piece on Musk and political interference in Europe https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/03/musk-tech-oligarch-european-election-influence/681453/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E98 · Tue, February 04, 2025
Ep.98 Disorder Emergency cast – Tariffs, Impoundment, Gaza, AID Freeze, and plane crash
Disorder is a podcast where we hate being right. Totally hate it. Jason truly loves being wrong. But fudge and fiddlesticks. Seems he is right again. The thing with neo-populists is that they don’t so much have policy agendas and goals, they just seek to disorder the universe by say – proposing to fire in a haphazard way 2 million U.S. government employees, or forcing out top FBI officials, or appointing officials for Senate confirmation to head government agencies that have overtly said they want to dismantle those specific agencies, or by randomly proposing to deport Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan against their will. On today’s Emergency Cast, Jane and Jason spontaneously convene to deal with peak disorder and delve into all the interlocking crises, dead catting, plane crashing, impounding, tariff barrier erecting, and AID stopping that has come to a head during Trump’s Second Week of his Second Term. In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jane wonders how much of the world will respond by trying to figure out how to decouple - slowly, gradually, cautiously – from the U.S. because U.S. politics does not exactly seem at its most stable. And Jason muses that Canada, Mexico, the UK and the EU could have chosen to present a united front to Trump, but appear to have elected not to. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links This is a most compelling podcast from the 538 about the ways in which the Trump Presidency threatens the constitutional balance of powers and how the issue of Impoundment is at the very core of the structural and legal threat of Trumpism to 're-do' the underlying structures of America: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000687276109 From the Washington Post, ‘Senior U.S. official exists after rift with Musk Allies of Payment System’: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/01/31/elon-musk-treasury-department-payment-systems/ From CNN, ‘Inside 45 hours of chaos: The brief life and quick death of Trump’s federal spending freeze’: https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/29/politics/inside-brief-life-trump-federal-spending-freeze/index.html From CNN, ‘Trump suggests his plan for Gaza Strip is to ‘clean out the whole thing”’: <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/25/politics/trump-gaza-strip-jordan-egypt/index.ht
S1 E97 · Thu, January 30, 2025
Ep97. Does Diplomatic Secrecy actually Work? And What’s Next for Centre-Left Politics?
In this episode, Jason and Alex tackle some probing listener questions. They return to a theme from previous episodes (especially the previous episode with Marcel Dirsus): whether today’s autocratic regimes (China, Russia, Iran) are actually as strong as they appear or might be weaker than we imagine. In response to multiple listen questions on this theme, Alex and Jason debate the cultural and economic missteps of the center-left and the importance of addressing real voter concerns about the pace of social and culture change in the face of rising populism. Then the Disorder programme pushes out the envelope a bit exploring: the significance of secrecy in intelligence and diplomacy, the political realignment of blue-collar workers, and the looming threat of a cryptocurrency bubble. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast Alex’s article on the resemblance of Donald Trump to a Tituskhy: https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/donald-trump-is-assembling-a-titushky Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e Hear Jason on The Bunker talking about post-Assad Syria and the Middle East in the age of Trump - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934 Jason was interviewed about backgammon and Gambling regulation by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E96 · Tue, January 28, 2025
Ep96. Saved by God to Make American Great Again
During his second inaugural speech, Trump declared January 20th, 2025 as Liberation Day. His indoor inauguration kept the hoi polloi of the MAGA world literally out in the cold. Inside, the Rotunda was filled with billionaires and family members. Trump’s speech screamed performative sound and fury. "For many years, a radical and corrupt establishment has extracted power and wealth from our citizens, while the pillars of our society lay broken and seemingly in complete disrepair." He then said without a hint of joking, “I was saved by God to make America great again.” But beyond the pomp and circumstance, what meaningful actions is Trump taking in his first days in office? Here at the Disorder programme, we try to help Order the Disorder by separating the performative sound and fury of Trump 2.0 from its actual meaningful actions. Jason’s hunch is that much of Trump 2.0 will be Kabuki theatre, as many of Trump’s so-called signature policies are things that he cannot enact as they violate the constitution, but a large implication of his overall programme is to foster deliberate disorder making the US completely different from other markets on things like EVs, oil and gas exploration, manufacturing, worker safety, and regulation, in general. To break it all down, in this episode, Jason and Alex reflect on the implications of Trump's pronouncements, the combination of lofty Presidential rhetoric mixed with Trump’s standard American carnage imagery, why previous POTUSs and VPs showed up for the Inauguration, and the impact of Trump's executive orders. They also look at the ceasefire in the Middle East and examine if similar tactics might actually work with Russia/Ukraine. Plus: the depressing and corrosive precedent of Biden's pardons, the shift in Silicon Valley's political allegiance, the role of BitCoin and AI on the American economy, the dynamics between the UK and US, and the role of the UK in a Trumpian World… Why can’t Starmer step up and be a mega Orderer? To Order the Disorder, the pair suggest that Europe and aligned powers get their act together and start mega ordering, without the US in tow. The show concludes as Jason and Alex postulate that constraining Trump will not happen from external forces, but maybe just maybe there is a potential for the excesses of Trumpism to be contained or managed by internal forces within the Republican Party. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast More on Trump’s par
S1 E95 · Tue, January 21, 2025
Ep95. Fox News, Elon, and Neo-populists: Engines of Deliberate Disorder?
In 2022, Nina Jankowicz was appointed to a brand new role within the US Government – Executive Director of the DHS's Disinformation Governance Board, tasked with tackling disinformation. Within weeks, she was the target of a mass disinformation campaign – driven primarily by Fox News – that put her life, family and career at risk. In today’s episode, Nina joins Arthur Snell to tell that story – and look at the role of dis- and mis-information around the globe. If the US under Trump turns into a deliberate disorderer in the information space, who will be left to order? There is an argument that medium powers like the UK, Brazil and the EU will hold the key to stemming the tide. Nina is an expert on Russia, Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but in the early 2020s, she became better known as an expert on disinformation. In 2022, she was appointed by the Biden administration to the Disinformation Governance Board, part of the United States Department of Homeland Security. But after Fox attacked her personally, the role was pulled. Since then, she has worked in various NGOs and in other foundations, and her current work is with American Sunlight, which tries to counteract disinformation by providing clear information and research to Americans. In her conversation with Arthur, she shares insights into the challenges of combating misinformation in the current political landscape, the role of media and big tech in amplifying disinformation, and the implications for democracy. Plus: the duo discuss shifting dynamics within the Republican Party regarding Russia, Elon Musk's influence, the rise of deepfake technology, and the gendered dimension to the violence that permeates online spaces. And then as they try to Order the Disorder, they look at Brazil as a place where disinformation regulation is starting to work, the importance of information literacy, and what’s been done educationally in Ukraine, plus – could smaller, stronger online communities be the answer? Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links For more on Nina visit https://www.ninajankowicz.com/ For a CBS explainer on what happened to Nina and the role played by Fox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=64&v=z6havT5C9_M&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2F Follow Arthur’s pod Behind The Lines https://open.spotify.com/show/4bpdB1iEN3irFueS5CMuq5
S1 E94 · Thu, January 16, 2025
Ep94. Gaza Ceasefire: What’s Next?
A tentative ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas has been announced by the US and Qatar. The deal would see a phased release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and an end to Israeli bombardments. If the first round of conditions are met, the cease fire should continue and culminate in further negotiations for additional swaps of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. But what’s next? Will it hold? And how do we get from this transactional bartering to longer term stability in the region? To discuss this and more, Alex Hall Hall and Jane Kinninmont final co-host a podcast of their own. They (who both have on-the-ground experience in Gaza) discuss: the challenges of establishing trust between the conflicting parties; the fragility of the deal that is currently being agreed; and the need for Western leaders who are trying to leverage the sides for further progress to also emphasise with local populations’ concerns. Plus: does Trump’s strongman diplomacy actually work? As they Order the Disorder, the ladies discuss the potential for a new Palestinian leadership, the importance of political will/brinksmanship, and the need for a comprehensive approach to rebuilding Gaza – including addressing economic dependencies. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Jane’s Nov 2023 analysis on need for Europe to chart a political pathway out of the violence - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/europe-and-gaza-political-pathways-out-of-the-violence/ Jane’s 2020 article on virtual dialogue with Palestinian youth - https://theelders.org/news/palestinian-perspectives-future Jane slags off Jared Kushner’s approach to “peace” in an oped for Haaretz during Trump 1 - https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2019-06-16/ty-article-opinion/.premium/jared-kushners-paradigm-busting-mideast-peace-deal-just-wont-work/0000017f-e9a9-d639-af7f-e9ffd4e00000 Read What Gazans Really Think of the War, Who They Blame, and What They Want to Happen Next by Alex https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/20/gaza-hamas-israel-opinion-poll/ Polling from a youth-led Palestinian polling organisation: https://institute4progress.org/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E93 · Tue, January 14, 2025
Ep93. Africa in the Age of Disorder
In 2024, the Disorder podcast looked a lot at Ukraine, Syria, Israel-Palestine, India, Bangledesh, and even north Africa… but we didn’t devote sufficient time to sub-saharan Africa. So what does Africa look like in the Age of Disorder? To find out, Jason is joined this week by Professor Clionadh Raleigh. Cliona created Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) which is a US-based NGO. She is also Professor of Political Violence and Geography in the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex in the UK. The duo discuss, how the Second Trump administration with its proposals for tariffs and increased tensions with China might affect Africa. And then muse on the roles of middle powers like Nigeria and Ethiopia in a disordered world, highlighting their internal challenges and regional influences. Then they turn their attention to the civil war in Sudan, the impact of external forces like the Wagner Group in that region, and the future of American policy towards Africa amidst these challenges. And as they Order the Disorder, Clionadh suggests that we need for a nuanced understanding of local politics and the impact of external influences on African stability, and that women and girls need to be supported as part of this. Plus, we announce the start of our new partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank. As part of that partnership we will be featuring research and guests from their network, and regular live events at their base in Whitehall. To attend the first event on March 11th, pay for a Subscription to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Read: Did Wagner Group prove an effective tool for Russian foreign policy? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/did-wagner-group-prove-effective-tool-russian-foreign-policy Read Has Sudan’s Conflict Reached a Turning Point? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/has-sudans-conflict-reached-turning-point More on Professor Clionadh: https://acleddata.com/team/prof-clionadh-raleigh/ Read ACLED’s Raleigh Report from December 2024: <a href="https://acleddata.com/2024/12/19/the
S1 E92 · Tue, January 07, 2025
Ep92. Trump 2.0: A Shift Away from Neoconservatism?
With Trump due to be inaugurated in less than 15 days, it is high time to come to grips with his foreign policy vision as it can be gleaned from his cabinet appointments. The incoming cabinet appears isolationist, transactional, and lacking a coherent view of what an American-led global system should look like. This begs the questions: Could Trump 2.0 symbolise a shift in the Republican foreign policy establishment away from the neoconservatism which has dominated it for four decades and towards a novel and novel approach to American foreign policy? Is this new approach filled with internal contradictions? And what do these countervailing wings of Trumpism mean for Trump 2.0 Administration’s approach to American adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran? To investigate, Jason is joined by Dr Alan Mendoza, founder and Executive Director of The Henry Jackson Society -- a Westminster think tank known for proposing bold and neo-conservative solutions to the crises facing Britain and the world. The duo begin by reflecting on the historical significance of figures like Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson(D-WA) and the historical inversions represented by Trump's isolationist and transactional approach to global order. Then: Alan and Jason embark on an around the world tour investigating the current structural weaknesses of Russia under Putin, the fragility of dictatorships in general, the growing threat posed by China, strategies for confronting it, and the importance of deterrence in global politics. After the ad break Alan and Jason look at: Britain's historical and current role in the Middle East, asking, could Britain compensate for Trumpian aloofness by seeking to reassert a leadership in the MENA region? They explore the influence of Iran as a destabilizing force, the situation in Gaza, the challenges posed by Hamas, and the need for an activist and bold British foreign policy to draw on Britain’s unique strengths and secure her interests. As the Order the Disorder, Alan proposes that Britain should invest more in cultivating hard power, while Jason stresses the need for upping Britain’s capacity in the sanctions space. Finally, if he were King for a day, Alan would established a new international institution just for functioning democracies – that could work adjacent to the UN – and act as a coordinating forum for the world’s ordering powers. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ In this week’s substack we will have extra audio content about Hamas disinformation about Gazan civilian casualties during the Israel-Hamas war Show Notes Links Watch/read interview with Alan about Putin: <a href="https://www.the-sun.com/news/13187114/putin-rule-power-russia-maf
S1 E91 · Tue, December 31, 2024
Ep91. An Orderly or Disorderly New Year?
From the Trump election win to the ongoing conflicts across the Middle East, Sudan and Ukraine… 2024 was certainly a year full of Disorder. But what about 2025? Is there any realistic hope that it could be more orderly? Well maybe there is! And maybe the time has come to take more seriously the *potential* advantages of certain Trump policy proposals. (or maybe not? hahahah) In this episode, we continue our spotlight on Hebrew music as it is still Hannukah and the tune we start out with asks the question ‘What will happen in the new year? We have to wait and see’. Jason is joined by fan favourite Jane Kinninmont to discuss the past year: reflecting on the myriad challenges faced by Orderers. They dissect the most Disordering events of 2024 as well as providing some hypotheticals like the various dogs that didn’t bark: the assassination attempt against Trump leading to an American civil war or a hot war between Israel and Iran emerging due to a miscalculation. Plus: what is the background of Susan Wiles, who is she, what stock does she come from, and what is her likely role in the incoming Trump government (could she be a power behind the throne and a real orderer)? We also discuss the centrality of the immigration issue to the global neo-populist movement. Meanwhile, Jason wonders: has the center-left got it all wrong? Have we been too biased on the pod in 2024 in cheerleading for Starmer and American centrists? This chain of thought culminates in some musings on Angela Merkel’s leadership, and her missteps, and the influence of conspiracy theories in popular culture. The show ends predictability by our discussing how each of us can help to order the disorder in 2025, emphasizing the importance of civic engagement and individual empowerment to help drive positive policies. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links For more about our Glaswegian Fan Favourite Jane Kinninmont: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/ And her recent fascinating article in The Times of India ‘Ayatollah after Assad’: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/ayatollah-after-assad/ Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/ If you like the way the Disorder Pod sounds c
S1 E90 · Tue, December 24, 2024
Ep90. A Disorderly Christmas Special
As 2024 draws to a close, Jason and Alex celebrate Chrismukkah (when Christmas and Hanukkah fall on the same date, which is actually a rarer occurrence than you might imagine). They feature some cantorial Hebrew music in the intro and some choral Christmas jingles in the outro. They share their families’ Christmas traditions, exploring the differences between American and British celebrations. They also explore the make believe of the contrasting Christmas celebrations of their alter egos, Xela Llah Llah and Nosaj Kcap. Plus: Alex’s recent trip to Georgia, highlighting the protests against the Georgian Dream government’s cancellation of EU membership, and how the West should respond. Also: the plight of the Kurds in Northeastern Syria, the need for a jamboree international conference of aid and capacity building support for Syria, the importance of proactive Western leadership on issues like Georgia and Syria and the potential profound consequences of inaction. And as they Order the Disorder, they express hope for positive change amidst global disorder. For Xmas Jason wishes for ‘Two NATOs on climate change, one NATO on tax havens, and a partridge in a pear tree,’ while Alex wishes for ‘the EU to come up with a way to bypass Hungary and Slovakia and put sanctions on Georgia before the end of the year.’ Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Read more about the plight of the Kurds of Northeastern Syria- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/middleeast/kurdish-forces-syria-turkey-isis-america.html Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/ And Arthur Snell has interviewed one of the leading experts on HTS and the Syrian anti-Assad jihadi landscapes: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/inside-hts-what-does-al-jolani-want-and-how-will-they-rule/id1704344656?i=1000680598620 If you like the way the Disorder Pod sounds check out ‘Can a steel town survive if its furnaces are turned off? – podcast’ where the reporting and the audio production are done by our producer George McDonagh: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/dec/19/can-a-steel-town-survive-if-its-furnaces-are-turned-off-podcast For more o
S1 E89 · Tue, December 17, 2024
Ep89. Canada: 2025’s stealth mega orderers?
From its important but underrecognized role in the World Wars of the 20th century to its key advocacy for the UN system, humanitarian aid, peacekeeping, and international treaties, Canada has been a major player in the global ordering sweepstakes. So what does Canada do when the world’s largest trading relationship (Canada’s with the United States) no longer necessarily connects it to a trustworthy nation? Can Canada step up and present itself as an independent leader of the free world and a ‘coordinator-in-chief’ for other Ordering nations? Will hosting the G7 give Canada some stealth mega ordering mojo? To discuss that and more, Jason is joined by Marci Surkes, Surkes served as Executive Director of Policy and Cabinet Affairs in the office of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This turned out to be a very timely conversation as Canadian PM Justin Trudeau visited President-Elect Trump in Mar-a-Lago in late November and noted that Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs would decimate the Canadian economy. In response Trump suggested that Canada was ‘ripping off America’ to the tune of a 100 billion USD a year and that if Canada wanted tariff free trade it could become the 51st state. This sparked many viral memes. Amidst this bizarre and yet terrifying backdrop, Jason and Marci explore the upcoming 2025 Canadian election, which may actually play out as a referendum on Trudeau’s handling of the Trump presidency. They also discuss leadership challenges to Trudeau within the Liberal Party and the fraught relationship between Canada and India and the pivotal role Canada could play in Global Ordering as it takes on the presidency of the G7 in 2025. Plus: could there be a budding bromance between Starmer and Trudeau? And as Marci and Jason Order the Disorder, they explore the need for more gender equality across politics and why medium powers like Canada can play a pivotal role on issues like security guarantees and NATO. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Listen to an explainer on why Canadian politics has ground to a halt: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/stalemate-why-the-house-of-commons-has-ground-to-a-halt/id1621425319?i=1000677888744 Listen to Marci’s appearance on a panel discussing what Trump means for Canada: https://paulwells.substack.com/p/the-panel-what-trump-means-for-canada?
S1 E88 · Wed, December 11, 2024
Ep88. Syria: New Order or Fresh Chaos?
Assad has fallen! The Tyrant is no more! Long live the revolution! There has been a genuine outpouring of jubilation among Syrians at home and abroad - even the ones working at the Syrian embassy in Moscow who ‘chose’ to fly the rebel flag. But the international responses are messier - regional players talk of maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity, while several countries welcome the new order with bombing raids (especially Turkey and Israel who are now operating inside Syria to weaken their enemies and occupy buffer zones). Meanwhile, even as Europeans ask whether jihadis will dominate the new Syria, the same European governments (notably Austria) are simultaneously drawing up plans to deport the Syrian refugees seeking asylum in their country -- because it must be safe now, right? In this bonus episode examining the Post-Assad Syria: From Euphoria to Uncertainty, Jason is joined by our returning Glaswegian champion, Jane Kinninmont. She is just back from an international conference in Doha where she sat one row behind Russia’s FM Sergei Lavrov. Jane and Jason tell stories from their times in Syria… about sweets and about being spied on. They break down all things Syria. Trying to draw lessons from a disorderly past to an orderly future. We examine: did Russia and Iran throw Assad under a bus? Several things changed in the regional calculus but - primarily they realized the game was up for Assad domestically. To save him they would have needed to commit major forces, and at a time when Israel might well have willing to join the fight to make sure that Iran lost - at least if Iran sent troops. And while those were clearly the major calculations, the “benefits” part of the Russo-Iranian cost-benefit analysis of propping up Assad had also dwindled. Iran wasn’t actually getting so many benefits from Assad -- who spent most of the year trying to stay out of the regional war, avoid confronting Israel and pursue normalisation with Arab states. The episode ends with Jane and Jason Ordering the Disorder by concluding that the West and the Middle East alike were caught horribly unprepared. Still wounded by the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, Western countries may shy away from lending serious capacity building assistance to a democratic Syrian led transition process - but fatalism is the wrong approach - the transition is more likely to be more peaceful and more successful if more political and economic resources are invested in it - especially by democratic countries willing to use carrots and sticks. Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links The David Runciman Pod that Jane mentions explaining linear vs cyclical and non-linear conceptions o
S1 E87 · Mon, December 09, 2024
Ep.87 Syria, Georgia, South Korea, France, Ireland, Hunter Biden, oh my
This week was par for the course… We are living through Peak Disorder. Two democratic capital cities were convulsed by demonstrations trying to oust their governments. One Middle Eastern regime collapsed, while a neighboring war was paused. We at the Disorder pod believe that events like the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire, the fall of Syria to the rebels, the street protests in Georgia in response to claims the election was rigged, the protests in South Korea opposing attempts to impose martial law, the battleground issues of the Irish elections, the spontaneous collapse of the French government, and the pardoning of Hunter Biden are all interrelated. We are most certainly living through the Global Enduring Disorder. In this historic era, events in one part of the world ping pong around and interact in unforeseen ways with events elsewhere, without sufficiently coordinated responses from potential Ordering powers. On today’s episode, we’re joined today by friend of the pod, fellow Georgia enthusiast, and former British Diplomat Arthur Snell. Arthur has recently hosted excellent pods on events in Syria and Georgia on his Behind the Lines podcast. (Links below) We recorded most of the episode after the Fall of Aleppo but before the fall of the Assad regime in total. Therefore, we will be having a bonus episode with Jane Kinninmont on Thursday delving into that in specific. In this ep, Arthur and Jason survey all of these topics, explaining that because of the fundamental principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder, previously stable looking places like South Korea, are becoming Disorderly. They discuss how memes and themes that are playing out in the UK and US are also rehashed in Ireland. They finish the show by trying to Order the Disorder – contrasting developments in South Korea with those in Georgia, concluding that state capacity and cultural solidarity is more vital now than ever. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Listen to Arthur’s podcast episode about Georgia: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/a654b790f75542d26710235d05c378d7 And his episode on The Fall of Aleppo: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/08772c26e60e40496a2a235b491f561b For deeper background to the Syrian Rebel’s offensive: https://www.syriaintransition.com/aleppoherewecome And how events in South Korea are connected to developments in Trump world: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/
S1 E86 · Tue, December 03, 2024
Ep86. Is Democracy Dead? Or actually alive and kicking?
Do elections work anymore? 2024 was the biggest year of elections in human history. Major contests were held in the UK, US, EU, France, India, Japan, Moldova, Georgia, and elsewhere. Did these elections work? Were they free and fair? Did their outcomes actually represent the authentic will of the people? Is genuine electoral democracy with its checks and balances even possible in the mid-21st century? Today’s guest on Disorder, Ben Ansell holds the contrarian view that democracy is actually alive and well. He asserts that even if we are not happy with recent outcomes, we should still trust the process. Ben Ansell is Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the University of Oxford and Nuffield College. He was the 2023 BBC Reith Lecturer and the presenter of ‘What's Wrong With Democracy?’ by Tortoise Media and ‘Rethink’ on BBC Radio 4. His most recent book is ‘Why Politics Fails’ and he writes the Substack 'Political Calculus’. In the episode, Jason and Ben embark on an around-the-world tour to survey this epic year of elections and analyse the state of democracy globally. They look at the key features that have defined this cycle, especially anti-incumbency sentiments. QUOTE OF THE SHOW ‘ This is the only year, 2024, where in every single MAJOR WESTERN country, the incumbents lost votes. They didn't always lose office, but they often did, because when you're losing 5 or 10 % of votes in competitive systems, you're a goner. First off… it looks, if you look at John's FT graph [in the shownotes], things have just got more volatile over the last decade or so anyway. And so that might be just a change among voters, that voters have become more like consumers. I mean, we are all consumers [in our mind sets]. And in most of the countries that have elections in capitalist markets, we [are used to] switching goods all the time. And I suppose there's reason to believe that [moving forward] we might switch parties all the time.’ Jason and Ben delve deeper into the unique case of Georgia, where incumbents have managed to increase their majority despite global trends. The duo also cover the outcomes of the European elections, the implications of criminality as a feature rather than a bug of global neopopulism, and the roles of Russian and Chinese influence operations in election results across the world. The episode concludes with Ben – an optimistic mega-orderer by temperament and intellectual conviction – genuinely Ordering the Disorder by saying that Trump can, and will, be contained and that the institutions of American democracy can actually withstand another Trump term. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links FT anti-incumbency graph/article: <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109
S1 E85 · Thu, November 28, 2024
Ep85. Thanksgiving Special: Taiwan, Identity Politics, and Can Taylor Swift Order the Disorder?
Amidst post-election malaise and seasonal depression, Jason is thankful for the Mega-Ordering listeners who sent in their questions to his new address in a bunker underneath the hills of Hampstead (you can reach it by writing to him @ Disordershow@gmail.com). Esther asked ‘To what extent did the Dems actually pander to the woke agenda? Or is that just made up and trumped up by the Republicans since it helps them win points’; Annabelle in Atlanta, Georgia asks ‘Could Taylor Swift solve all the disorder?’ while Kerry in the Republic of Georgia asks ‘despite being from rural Vermont, I now feel these days like I barely know America. I do not understand Trump voters. How do we bridge this divide on a practical level?’ Jumping off from these prompts Alex and Jason cover myriad topics including: the potential for conflict between China and Taiwan, whether JD Vance could become President before 2028, the ways we can incorporate the lessons of behavioral economics into political decision-making, and the role of the transgender issue in the recent election campaign. Plus: the challenges for liberal elites in truly understanding Trump voters, if Taylor Swift and other celebrities actually helped or hurt the Dems, and why even in these dark days, we can remain optimistic about the potential success of a collective effort to preserve democracy. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Learn more about the history of Thanksgiving: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Thanksgiving-Day And the Origins of Turkey: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/why-americans-call-turkey-turkey/383225/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E84 · Tue, November 26, 2024
Ep84. Through the Looking Glass: Trump’s Appointments and Can Starmer do Global Leadership?
We have crossed through the looking glass – Up is Down, Disorder is Order, Vice is Virtue, Felony is a Positive, and Rape Convictions are a reason to get a cabinet position. With Trump unsurprisingly appointing disruptors to his administration, Global Disorder beckons. How did we get here? Seemingly because Biden wasn’t bold enough in trying to assert order. Is Starmer making the same mistake? In this episode, Jason and Alex discuss what will happen to the ongoing legal cases against Trump, the forthcoming Trump administration’s attempts to disorder and dismantle American institutions and checks and balances, and the likely evolution of the Supreme Court. After a lengthy discussion of the initial proposal of Matt Gaetz’s as Attorney General and his subsequent withdrawal, Alex introduces listeners to Xela Llah Llah, her Trump-voting alter-ego who lives on the other side of the looking glass and who will occasionally be coming on the podcast to explain politics from her point of view. After some wise words from Xela which ‘help us empathize with the other side’, Jason and Alex turn their attention back to the UK, looking at whether Starmer’s appearance at COP means anything, and how (if at all) he can push to become a more prominent global leader on a range of issues. In a rather downbeat and informal Ordering the Disorder segment, we examine the future of multilateralism and the global political order (is there any such thing anymore?) Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Matt Gaetz’s Bio and why Criminality leads to loyalty: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000677307816 On Matt Gaetz’s replacement Pam Bondi: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/us/politics/pam-bondi-attorney-general-trump.html And for a Trump Cabinet Tracker: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/trump-administration-cabinet-appointees.html Also a link back to last week’s episode discussing how Starmer should be bolder: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ep83-trump-derangement-syndrome-with-the-two-matts/id1706818264?i=1000677421360 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E83 · Tue, November 19, 2024
Ep83. Trump Derangement Syndrome with the Two Matts
The Post-Mortem autopsy continues. How could liberal elites have had eight and half years to prepare for the twenty thousand tonne train barrelling down the tracks right at them and not been able to take sufficient evasive action? Who are these clowns? Do they deserve what is coming? What can studying years of Brexit Fatigue, Orban Exhaustion, and Netanyahu Nihilism, teach us about both how this Trumpian travesty has happened and the likely disorderly evolution of peak Neopopulism in America? And what is the antidote to Trump Derangement Syndrome? Jason needs a double dose. In this episode, Jason is joined by Matt Kelly and Matt d’Ancona – the hosts of The New European’s ‘The Two Matts’ podcast. They discuss the abysmal state of the world and Keir Starmer’s inability to lead with vision. They review and assess the rise of neopopulism in both the UK and the US. The conclusion is that the goose is cooked. Complacency and a lack of bold messaging has led to the evisceration of the centre-left globally. Jason even questions if he is of the centre-left anymore, concluding he may simply be a disillusioned and increasingly radical centrist. While the Two Matts share bon mot about recent horrific developments in Britain, Jason explores some lessons from Hungary and Israel, which may possibly shed some light on the likely future trajectory of neopopulism in America. Delving briefly into the shocking and depressing cabinet appointments trickling out of MAGA world, the Two Matts and Jason also reflect on the social legacy of the Trump era and its lasting impact on Western political discourse. In place of Ordering the Disorder (which may no longer be possible as Disorder has already won), The Two Matts answer lightening round questions about the most macabre moments of Trump-iness and some of the humorous aspects of the challenges ahead. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Get the Two Matts podcast - https://podfollow.com/2matts Read the latest edition of the New European here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/edition/the-beast-unleashed/ Read Jason’s article, ‘A lizard person’s guide to US election conspiracy theories’ in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E82 · Tue, November 12, 2024
Ep82. Fool me twice: Shame on me
The Disorderer-in-Chief is now President-Elect. We can’t say we didn’t see it coming. In fact, we predicted on the pod and on the substack that he was favourite to win. But as the post-mortems are bouncing around the internet, we must ask what one factor most led to this outcome: was it the economy, was it woke gone overboard, was it misinformation, was it the anti-incumbency mood? Which factors predominated in making Harris unelectable? And how did the Democratic party allow itself to be fooled again and fight the election on losing issues? And Were Americans fooled by false promises? And duped by misinformation about the issues? And given Trump’s resounding victory what is next – will he deport millions of Americans, launch a trade war that drives inflation skywards, and give Musk the keys to the regulatory castle to endlessly enrich himself – and will the American electorate care in 4 years’ time? In this episode, Alex and Jason discuss the major reasons underpinning Trump’s win. Including: the cultural shifts in the United States, the fact that Trump’s criminality and venality may actually be seen by many of his voters as a positive (i.e. they voted for him not despite the fact that he is a convicted felon but BECAUSE OF IT), and how the Republicans were brutally effective in their advertising and narrative crafting. Amidst all the tumult, the Disorder pods co-hosts attempt to take stock globally and personally. Alex – a Brit turned American – and Jason – an American turned Brit – reflect on their own changing identities and how the result makes them feel in their guts. Plus: listener questions tackle topics like the future of Europe and NATO, could Trump change the constitution, could Trump actually deliver what people want, what about Bitcoin, and whether America could become yet another Russia-style oligarchy. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Read Alex’s Byline Times Article - ‘Democrats Need to Stop Blaming Trump’s Voters and Admit the Party Must Change’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/07/democrats-need-to-stop-blaming-trumps-voters-and-admit-the-party-must-change/ What the Founding Fathers Would Say About Trump’s Win “I told you so.”: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/08/what-the-founding-fathers-would-say-about-trumps-win/?tpcc=editors_picks&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors%20Picks%2011092024&utm_term=editors_picks Trump’s Historic
S1 E81 · Wed, November 06, 2024
Ep81. Disorder Trumped Order
After a night of trepidation at Jason’s watch party the results came in faster and more furiously than expected… Trump crushed Harris – not just in rural areas or in Red States, but in many middle-class suburbs/exurbs and even with Latino and Black men. This 2024 Trumpian landslide is the biggest re-alignment in American politics since Reagan crushed Carter in 1980. The ‘lumpenproletariat’ Trump coalition of 2024 is actually highly dissimilarly economically, socially, ideologically and ethnically to the ‘whitelash’ coalition that took him to victory in 2016. How will that affect its Disordering impacts on the global stage? Jason is joined by party guests -- FP deputy editor Sasha Polakow-Suransky and Jane Kinninmont -- to break down what the results mean for global order. Sasha shares insights into anti-immigrant sentiment and attempts to channel the angry anti-system voters from his home state of Michigan, while Jane discusses European defense arrangements and is pressed by Jason to provide a sliver of Celtic optimism. They attempt to explain the implications for the rest of the world: the transatlantic relationship, European security, Ukraine, tariff wars, the Middle East (Iran/Gaza), and China. Jason ends the episode with a forlorn farewell. He sees no silver lining, only peak disorder ahead. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t cancel American democracy Show Notes Links To Get Sasha’s Book ‘Go Back to Where You Came From’: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/sasha-polakow-suransky/go-back-to-where-you-came-from/9781568585932/ Check out his debate-style podcast Counterpoint: https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/counterpoint/ On the Demographic shifts and the re-ordering (or rather re-disordering) of American politics from racial/ethnic cleavages onto class lines On ‘Defending Europe with less America’: https://ecfr.eu/publication/defending-europe-with-less-america/?amp ‘There is hope [maybe if you are Celtic but not if you are Anglo-American] — 10 ways to be prepared and grounded for another Trump presidency’: https://wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/10-things-to-do-if-trump-wins/ On Michigan’s Arab voters: <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/28/election-michigan-harris-trump-arab-americans-lebanon-war-israel-gaza/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=ZWxlY3Rpb24tbW
S1 E80 · Tue, November 05, 2024
Ep80. What does the Post-Election Future hold?
What do professional ‘futurists’ think about global disorder? With our current world seemingly in never ending Disorder that won’t be immediately cured by the election results, it can be hard to put your head above the parapet and try to see into the future. Furthermore, given the rapidly changing pace of technology, the 2050s, 2070s, and 2100s feel a long way out. Is it worth trying to forecast and plan for the future? If countries started planning now, could we see an Ordered future? In this episode of Disorder, Jason opens with his feelings about election day and then hands over to Jane Kinninmont to host Cat Tully, who works with governments, civil society and young leaders around the world to facilitate structured conversations about what the future could and should look like. She is the founder of the School of International Futures, and has previously served in the UK government, working on strategy in the prime minister’s office and the Foreign Office. Jane and Cat delve into the complexities of forecasting the future, discussing the importance of collective foresight in navigating global disorder. They discuss what was and wasn’t achieved by the recent UN Summit For The Future, the role of strategic foresight in preparing for potential shocks, and how people around the world are working to push governments beyond short-term populist priories. Finally, they Order the Disorder by talking about the importance of youth engagement, and using futures and foresight methodologies to build a better future rather than viewing the future through the lens of panic and polycrisis. Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t win Show Notes Links The School of International Futures’ Implementation Handbook for the wellbeing of future generations: https://soif.org.uk/implementation-handbook/ UK Government’s brief guide to futures thinking and foresight: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/635931b18fa8f557d066c1b1/A_Brief_Guide_to_Futures_Thinking_and_Foresight_-_2022.pdf A great book by Jane McGonagal on training your imagination to think about the future: https://janemcgonigal.com/2021/12/17/imaginable-how-to-see-the-future-coming-and-feel-ready-for-anything-even-things-that-seem-impossible-today/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https:/
S1 E79 · Thu, October 31, 2024
Ep79. Trick or Treat? Spooky Trump or Visionless Harris?
To celebrate Halloween, Jason goes on the Keen On show hosted by friend of the Disorder Pod, Andrew Keen, to talk about America’s spooky election and the crazy conspiracy theories that are floating around this election cycle. What does it really mean when people say the 2020 election was stolen or that Bill Gates implants people with microchips via their Covid Vaccines? Conspiracy theories are not only, not new, they are a core part of how campaigns of social change are articulated. The more radical the change – the French Revolution, the rise of Hitler, or Trump’s election—the more paramount the need for conspiracy theories to motivate the required action need to bring it about. Given his recent study of the phenomenon, Jason articulates his view that the conspiratorial rhetoric around this election embodies a new ‘us vs. them’ turn in American political life. He urges Andrew and listeners to Read beneath the surface! And Unpack the True hidden meaning of the conspiracy! Pointing to his New European Article (published this week), Jason concludes: Conspiracy theories are a socially acceptable way of articulating a Politics of Ressentiment – of pitting groups against each other. Just like Brexit, Trump has signalled that he will ‘take back control’ from the minorities, Jews, uppity feminists, transgender activists, immigrants, urban lawyers, and all the other groups you hate and feel have too much power. Spooky indeed! Show Notes Links Read Jason’s New European Article here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/ And revisit last week’s Disorder episode 76, ‘The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers’ with Joe Uscinski here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2nvlI3hR1VFyMbgKaZddyi Check out Andrew Keen’s Substack here: https://keenon.substack.com/ Listen to Andrew podcast on Spotify here: https://open.spotify.com/show/1kkWdvi3xdG7JvTbQ0l9Ho And one of his fun episodes on Intellectual Objectivity here: https://keenon.substack.com/p/in-defense-of-geeky-intellectuals Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E78 · Tue, October 29, 2024
Ep78. China’s Economic Disorder: Overproduction, Oversupply, Overcapacity, oh my!
Whether it is solar panels or steel, clothes or tech, many of the world’s manufactures are made in China. But did you know that the Chinese manufacturing sector is not really supply and demand driven and tends to produce far more than the rest of the world demands? Now… with a faltering post-COVID recovery, a housing market collapse, and worsening relationship with the West, is China’s economy in a genuine state of crisis? And could a troubled Chinese economy, unable to be buoyed by the recently announced stimulus, spread more Disorder globally? And what should the US and UK do to contain China’s disordering potential? And how are different approaches to the Chinese economy a key electoral issue in the upcoming US Presidential election? Jason Pack is joined by Zongyuan ‘Zoe’ Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. Jason and Zoe discuss how China's economic policies – characterized by a motley mix of market-driven and state-controlled elements – have led to both tremendous Chinese excellence in manufacturing and also oversupply. The duo also discuss: the changing US-China relationship, the implications of Chinese overproduction on the global economy, and the role of massive Chinese provincial government debt. As they Order the Disorder, they suggest how existing institutions like the World Trade Organization could work better, and how to patch up the failing marriage between China and the West. Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links Read Zoe’s article ‘China’s Real Economic Crisis: Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model’ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-real-economic-crisis-zongyuan-liu Read more on why ‘China’s economic ills are serious but not incurable’ https://www.ft.com/content/553b106c-2bba-4f90-86d6-8496fc9cf902 On the Chinese hacking of Trump and Vance’s phone’s: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/chinese-hackers-targeted-trump-and-vances-phone-data/index.html For more on China’s government is about to spend big on stimulus – can it turn around the country’s sluggish economy? https://theconversation.com/chinas-government-is
S1 E77 · Tue, October 22, 2024
Ep.77. The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers
From immigrants eating pets, to Jewish space lasers starting wildfires, to 9/11 ‘trutherism’, our disordered world – and particularly the rhetoric surrounding the 2024 US Election – is awash with conspiracy theories. Are these theories: ways of venting anti-establishment anger, merely entertaining distractions, dangerous socially acceptable ways of conveying hate for minorities, or do they actually convey meaningful calls to revolutionary political action? What is the hidden meaning encoded in the plot lines and specific tropes of particular popular conspiracy theories? And why do neo-populist leaders push – and anti-establishment voters believe in them? Are conspiracy theories inherently ‘disordering’ and do they make it more difficult for today’s politicians to solve pressing challenges? To explore this complex world, Jason Pack is joined by Joseph Uscinski. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, author of ‘Conspiracy Theories: A Primer’, and editor of Conspiracy ‘Theories and the People Who Believe Them’. Throughout the episode, Jason engages in a conspiracy to come up with a unified field theory of how to unlock the meaning of conspiracy theories. Joe rains on his parade, rejecting most of Jason’s pet theories, while unsurprisingly approving of his own pet theory: ‘Conspiracy Theories are for Losers and express a coherent world view that suits those without economic or political power’. Jason and Joe discuss how conspiracy theories have become intertwined with certain types of modern political movements (especially disordering neo-populist ones), the psychological and social factors that motivate belief in conspiracy theories, the role of antisemitism throughout much conspiratorial thinking, and how these theories often target marginalised groups. The show closes with various sharp debates like over whether entertainment value or calls to political action have key roles to play in the spread of conspiracy theories. Lastly, when they Order the Disorder, Jason and Joe disagree vehemently over the role of global institutions should play in curtailing the spread of conspiracy theories. Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ to get the special substack-only second episode on Backgammon and Politics with former World Champion of Backgammon Sander Lylloff which drops tomorrow October 23rd Show Notes Links For various experts who think Conspiracy Theories entail and motivate actions: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/marianna-in-conspiracyland/id1690561703?i=1000616687886 Get Joseph’s book, Conspiracy Theories: A Primer: <a h
S1 E76 · Thu, October 17, 2024
Ep76. Can Sanctions help us Order the Disorder?
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West initiated the most comprehensive economic war in human history. The US, EU, and UK announced a range of well-coordinated sanctions against Russia which included export restrictions, freezing assets, excluding the Russian Central Bank from SWIFT, and banning flights. It was an example of transcending the Enduring Disorder with the main Western powers working together seamlessly. But seen in hindsight were these effective? Did they degrade Russia’s fighting capacity? Does kicking a state out of the globalized economy actually hit Disordering states, like Putin’s Russia or Iran, where it hurts? Do they help avoid future aggression? Or do they facilitate the rise of a ‘Disorderer’s Club’ where sanctioned autocracies merely trade with each other and form common cause against the West? In this’ investigative’ episode of Disorder, Jason Pack is joined by Bloomberg journalist, Stephanie Baker, author of ‘Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia.’ The pair explore different theories of whether economic integration prevents wars, the effectiveness of sanctions, the fear of blowback, the role of oligarchs in Putin's regime, and the impact of the novel $60 a barrel ‘oil price cap’ on Russia's economy. Plus: as they Order the Disorder, they look at whether methods like the oil price cap could be used to deter Iran, the need for a coordinated international response (which includes players like the UAE), and how targeting Putin’s access to high-end semi-conductors could help undermine his authoritarian power. Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus Ep67. ‘Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security’: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e Listen to our episode with Tom Burgis which sheds light on why authoritarian states outsource their economic functions and corruption: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b For more on Stephanie visit: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/ Get Stephanie’s book, Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Punishing-Putin/Stephanie-Baker/9781668050583 Readna review of Punishing Putin: https:
S1 E75 · Tue, October 15, 2024
Ep75. What can Backgammon teach us about Ordering the Disorder?
What can games of skill and chance, of risk and reward – like Poker and Backgammon– teach diplomats, policymakers, and interested participants about how to Order the Disorder? In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by the former #1 Giant of Backgammon, Wilcox Snellings. In the 1990s, he was considered by his peers to be the best player in the world. The duo discuss: Wilcox’s upbringing, New York’s gambling culture, the milieu of high stakes gambling and its myriad lessons for confronting disorder with probabilistic calculations. The duo explore how concepts of expected value and game theory, which underpin modern economics, derive from gambling. They also explore the concepts popularized by Nate Silver in his new book 'On the Edge', which focuses on the dichotomy between ‘the River’ (i.e. the community of risk takers) and ‘the village’ (i.e. the community of PC, play-it-safe, left-leaning establishment elites). Wilcox and Jason explore how today’s crop of political leaders often fail to utilize the principles of risk vs reward calculations and fail to grasp inherent causal connections when making decisions. In the Ordering the Disorder section, Wilcox and Jason link the failure of left and centrist politicians in tackling the challenges of campaign finance, taxation equity, and income inequality to their risk averseness. If you enjoyed this episode and want to hear its partner episode with Sander Lylloff the 2022 World Champion of Backgammon Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Next week that special bonus episode will drop only on the Substack. Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to the World’s current number 1 Giant of Backgammon Mochy talking to Jason’s friend Etan Ilfeld: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803 Venture into online backgammon and amongst the stars on Backgammon Galaxy: https://www.backgammongalaxy.com/ For another more personal interview about Wilcox’s life: https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Wilcox+Snellings&mid=801C99A1E7F69963E00A801C99A1E7F69963E00A&FORM=VIRE Read more about Nate Silver’s book https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/09/09/on-the-edge-the-art-of-risking-everything-nate-silver-book-review And a fairly cogent critique of Silver’s book
S1 E74 · Tue, October 08, 2024
Ep74. Part2: The Case for Palestinian Statehood
(This episode flows from Ep 73 Part I: Commemorating the October 7 Massacre – please listen to it first if you have not.) In this second part of our series recapping a year of the Israel-Hamas War, Jason and Sir Vincent Fean (former British Consul General in Jerusalem and former Chairman of the Balfour Project) pivot their discussion to the current state of Palestinian political institutions, the Palestinian question on the international diplomatic stage; international legal rulings against Israel’s occupation; Britain’s historic role in the Palestine question and its ensuing responsibilities to the Palestinians; the actions of Sir Keir’s government to bring about Palestinian statehood; and the longer term implications of the current conflict for the future of the Middle East and the world. Both Jason and Sir Vincent argue that it is impossible to Order the Disorder globally on issues like climate change without tackling the Middle East head on. This episode is both a heartbreaker and a must-listen. For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links On the impact of recognising a Palestinian state: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn44j1njggjo For more on the Balfour Project: https://balfourproject.org/#:~:text=-%20Balfour%20Project.%20Peace%20with%20justice,%20security%20and On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284 On the economic impacts of one year of war on the region and the globe: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-year-to-the-war-in-gaza/id1584397047?i=1000671757710 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E73 · Mon, October 07, 2024
Ep73. Part1: Commemorating the October 7 Massacre
A year ago today, the Middle East and the world changed forever. Hamas terrorists and Gazan civilians broke through the Gaza border fence into Israel and began massacring over a thousand Israelis and taking hundreds of hostages. A few weeks later, Israel began an aerial bombardment campaign and ground occupation of Gaza that has caused tens of thousands of casualties, leveled most of Gaza’s buildings, and seems to have no end in sight. To support Hamas, Hizbollah began firing missiles into Northern Israel from southern Lebanon, even before the Israeli incursion in Gaza began. This has recently led to Israeli decapitation strikes against Hizbollah’s leadership and an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon. To mark the sober anniversary of October 7, Jason Pack is joined by Sir Vincent Fean. Over the course of a long and distinguished diplomatic career, Sir Vincent was British Consul General in Jerusalem – which is essentially Britain’s Ambassador to the Palestinians. Currently, Sir Vincent urges the British government to recognise a Palestinian state via his role as trustee and former Chairman of The Balfour Project, an NGO. In this first part of a two-part episode, Jason and Sir Vincent seek to shine light on a few interrelated topics: firstly to provide an overview of the last year of tragedy, violence, and death in the Middle East; to unpick Israeli military strategy or lack thereof, to contextualize the vast humanitarian suffering of Gazan and West Bank Palestinians; to situate the Oct 7 attacks in the long continuum of Jewish persecution; and examine the re-emergence of previously dormant forms of conspiratorial antisemitism around the world. Please join us tomorrow for Part II of the discussion btw Jason and Sir Vincent. For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links A quick factual overview from Deutsche Welle on the October 7th attacks and the ensuing year of violence: https://www.dw.com/en/october-7-hamas-attacks-on-israel-a-year-later/a-70399696#:~:text=On%20October%207,%202023,%20Hamas,%20the%20Palestinian%20militant A more detailed strategic look at what happened on October 7th: https://www.csis.org/analysis/hamas-october-7-attack-tactics-targets-and-strategy-terrorists#:~:text=Hamas%20fighters%20killed%20an%20estimated%201,400%20Israelis,%20largely On the Nova Massacre and Oct 7th v
S1 E72 · Thu, October 03, 2024
Ep72. JD Vance vs Tim Walz: A gentlemanly Disorderer in a crisp suit vs a folksy Midwestern Orderer
Tuesday night’s vice-presidential debate between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz was a breath of fresh air in some ways. The discussion was civil, with Vance in particular attempting to present himself as reasonable. But hiding underneath the crisp suit, eloquent banter, and agreeable disagreements, is a Disorderer, who could become President in 2028, if not sooner. In this special episode focusing on the VP debate, and the threat Vance presents to democracy, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Greg Olear, host of the Prevail podcast and author of ‘Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He’ll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail.’ The pair analyze the implications of the debate for the upcoming election, the role of media in shaping public perception, and the potential threats posed by Vance's political agenda. Plus to Order the Disorder, Alex and Greg delve into the need for the Democrats to communicate effectively. For more on the ongoing US Presidential race, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Vance and Walz stick to policy in polite VP debate - but who won? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y0863ry88o CBS cut mics and fact-checked JD Vance in a more civil VP debate, drawing the ire of Trump and his allies: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/02/media/vance-walz-debate-cbs-moderators-fact-check/index.html Listen to Greg’s podcast Prevail at https://pod.link/1553506699 Read his Substack Prevail at https://gregolear.substack.com/ Get his book Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He’ll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail https://www.amazon.com/Rough-Beast-Re-Elected-Democracy-Prevail-ebook/dp/B0D4MS1D25 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E71 · Tue, October 01, 2024
Ep71. Nasrallah Killed in Lebanon – What’s Next?
Over the weekend, Israel confirmed that they had killed Hezbollah’s charismatic leader – and terrorist master mind -- Hassan Nasrallah. He was frequently described as the leader of the globe’s most powerful non-state armed group. So, what does Nasrallah’s exit from the stage and the ongoing Israeli bombardment of Lebanon, mean for the region? Amidst the humanitarian crisis and vast escalatory pressures, how can we Order the Disorder? To find out, Arthur Snell and Jane Kinninmont recorded a special bonus episode of the podcast. The duo discuss: the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran – examining the motivations of both parties. They analyse Netanyahu's political manoeuvring, the complexities of Lebanon's political/sectarian landscape, and the potential for diplomatic solutions amidst the chaos. Plus, they dissect the challenges faced by the international community in addressing the crisis and the implications for US influence in the region, as they try and Order the Disorder. For more on the fast moving situation across Lebanon and the wider region, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast Behind The Lines: https://shows.acast.com/65196b0b1488340011cf14a1 Read Tom Fletcher’s (a former guest from Episode Ep10. How international actors can stabilize the ongoing Israel-Hamas War and prevent a regional escalation - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cd7401e8093b8bb8f10c639a30db226c ) piece on what’s next for the region: https://www.ft.com/content/f78a4277-8f94-40c4-a4d4-6c0bde361ecb Read Michael Young’s Twitter Thread on the latest: https://x.com/beirutcalling/status/1840008152336527715?s=46 More on the moving situation in Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/ Read this really insightful bio of Hassan Nasrallah by Hassan Hassan (from Syria) and Karim Shaheen in New Lines magazine - https://newlinesmag.com/argument/end-of-an-era-what-hassan-nasrallahs-assassination-spells-for-the-middle-east/ Read this article by Michael Young (@beirutcalling) which covers both th
S1 E70 · Thu, September 26, 2024
Ep70. Peak Disorder in Bangladesh
‘Peak Disorder’ is Jason’s coinage for: the democratic world’s inability to exert ordering capacity to respond to new challenges except if they are existentially pressing because we are simply too divided, distracted, and overtaxed by existing crises. This phenomenon of ‘peak disorder’ is epitomized over the last two months by events in Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s embattled prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled the country on Aug 5, 2024, after a brutal government crackdown against protests had resulted in hundreds of deaths. The country’s president, the armed forces, and political parties selected a temporary “caretaker” government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The key opposition party the BNP has accepted the transition. However, some factions in the country are upset with the nature of the caretaker government’s reforms and the slow progress towards elections. Bangladesh is a country with strong economic potential and many opportunities for progress, but its transition from corrupt populism/creeping authoritarianism back to democracy needs to be aided by outside economic help and by being insulated from disordering geopolitical rivalries. Bangladesh’s transition is unfolding amidst Peak Disorder. This makes it very fraught. To delve deeper into events in Bangladesh and what they say about ‘Peak Disorder’, Jason is joined by Michael Kugelman the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre. To get more background information and perspective about this very complex topic pleasure join our substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links: Michael’s sterling interview with The Daily Star that gets into the geopolitics of the situation: https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/geopolitical-insights/news/the-geopolitics-sheikh-hasinas-fall-explained-3676511 Michael’s bio: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/michael-kugelman For a real concise takes on the facts of what has happened in Bangladesh: https://theconversation.com/bangladeshs-protests-explained-what-led-to-pms-ouster-and-the-challenges-that-lie-ahead-236190 A good overview podcast by ABC (Australia) about how we got to where we are now which also interviews Michael Kugelman: https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/rearvision/bangladesh-politics-and-the-business-of-remembering/10418
S1 E69 · Tue, September 24, 2024
Ep69. Life in North Korea, Kidnapping Stories, and Why Symbolism Matters with Dictators -- Jordan Harbinger on Tyrants and Disorderers
What does getting kidnapped in Mexico City have in common with taking Western backpackers on tours of North Korean? Each provides key insights into the disordering essence of how autocracies function and why symbolism is important to dictatorial securocrats. This rather chatty episode builds off of our more academic and systematic look at similar themes in “Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security” with Marcel Dirsus last Tuesday in episode 67. In this episode, Jason is joined by the host of The Jordan Harbinger Show. The pair discuss: how Jordan got kidnapped (and Jason shares his own tale of being kidnapped in Syria and Lebanon); what life is really like in North Korea; why symbols matter so much in dictatorships; the psychology of Xi Jinping; how to deter China from invading Taiwan; why dictators are so fragile and touchy about being made to look bad; and how campaign finance reform could help us order the disorder. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links To listen to Jordan’s show visit https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Check out his episode ‘A Divorce Lawyer’s Guide to Lasting Love Part One’ here: https://www.jordanharbinger.com/james-sexton-a-divorce-lawyers-guide-to-lasting-love-part-one/ And our previous episode with Marcel Dirsus on the innerworkings of Tyrannies here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E68 · Thu, September 19, 2024
Ep68. Disorder’s One Year Anniversary
To celebrate Disorder’s One Year Anniversary, Alex and Jason recap the shows Greatest Hits, share their thoughts on their favourite guests; explain how their views of the world have changed over the last year; speculate on how today’s disorder is different from what came before; and disagree slightly agreeably about how the moral failings of the Anglo-American colonial empire of bygone days is or is not different from the Chinese and Russian empires of today. After proceeding through these reminiscences, we take listeners questions about Putin, AI, China, imperialism, how recording the podcast has changes how Jason and Alex see the world, and if there are any new orderers on the world stage. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links: Listen to our first episode here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/63ff389b562a075c49a81c86e239b85c And listen to some of the other favourite episodes that this episode references, With Bill Browder (on Navalny’s death): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece With Evegenia Kara Murza (whose husband has just been released in the prisoner swap): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8 With Miles Taylor (author of the famous Anonymous article in the NYT): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed With Armen Sarkissian (the former President of Armenian - Part 1): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/380a900513c99b34f849e4d74119f46a And the one containing arguably our greatest moment with Kurt Volker: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/f20a464df3a71e64f887891339b720dc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E67 · Tue, September 17, 2024
Ep67. Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security
From Putin to Qadhafi, from Mohammed bin Salman to Trump… our current era of Enduring Disorder is filled with many Tyrants and Tyrant-wannabes. But why do Tyrants tend to seek Disorder rather than Order? The answer appears to lie in Tyrants’ Endless Quest for Regime Security. Dictators have a marked predilection to put their own desire to cling to power in the short-and medium-term above all other considerations – even if that means deliberately making their countries’ economies and militaries inefficient or willfully spreading Disorder around the globe. To discuss the deep connections between Tyranny and Disorder, we are joined by Marcel Dirsus, Jason’s old Oxford chum, former Libya-Analysis LLC contractor, and author of ‘How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive’. Marcel is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University and a member of the Standing Expert Committee on Terrorism and Interior Security at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. Jason and Marcel dig into the psychology of tyrannical leaders and the structural factors that push tyrants to behave as they do. They explore the concept of the ‘selectorate’ — i.e. who really matters in a given society to keep the ruler in power. They explain how tyrannies have a much smaller and more elite ‘selectorate’ than democracies… this explains why pleasing these very few elites in the immediate term is the key variable required to keep dictators in power… and since those few pillars of regime support might flip at any moment, tyranny is actually an incredibly brittle form of government… and can actually collapse at any moment if its support pillars are removed In the Ordering the Disorder section, Marcel and Jason urge democratic nations to realize the true extent of weakness prevalent in most dictatorships and target tyrants’ henchmen to help create a more Ordered globe. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links What is the Selectorate and what are the implications of ‘Selectorate Theory’ on how we understand international politics? oxfordre.com/politics/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-293 Get Marcel’s book at https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/marcel-dirsus/how-tyrants-fall/9781399809481/ But if you want to actually learn about Libya rather than simply reading some kooky stories that Marcel includes about Qadhafi, get Jason’s book: https:/
S1 E66 · Thu, September 12, 2024
Ep66. Harris taunts Trump; the Disorderer implodes, Order appears to prevail
Jason and Alex explain the implications for global order of the first, and possibly onl,y 2024 Presidential Candidates Debate btw Harris and Trump. It was like a legendary heavyweight boxing match between a woman auditioning to be the mega-orderer-in-chief and the most well established disorderer the world has ever scene. And it ended in a more dramatic fashion than even an epic Howard Cosell play-by-play: Down goes Frazier, Down goes Frazier. Trump acknowledged that he cannot go against Putin’s wishes, that he does not want the Ukrainians to win the war; and then when taunted by Kamala about the small ‘crowd-size’ at his rallies, Trump simply imploded: spewing grievance-filled conspiratorial lies about Haitian Migrants eating dogs in Springfield, Ohio, that Democrats order doctors to kill babies after birth, and that the Biden-Harris administration gives transgender transition surgeries to illegal aliens. We at the Disorder Pod don’t want to count chickens before they are hatched, but were both favourably surprised by Kamala’s performance. As we pointed out in Ep 65, she does portray herself in a rigid, prosecutorial vibe and has been weak at explaining the specifics of her programmes. She might play identity cards a bit much for some middle-aged white males. And yet!, Sept 10, 2024 may go down in history as the first time that an opposing politician beat Donald J. Trump at the game of television. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush failed at it in the 2016 Republican Primary. Hillary and Biden may have won debates against him but they never beat him at the game of television. Whereas, Harris made Trump look like a buffoon and she successfully baited and taunted him on live TV before tens of millions. She made the contrast extremely clear: that she wishes to Order the American economy and the world, while Trump wishes to Disorder it. Show Notes Links: Read Alex’s Byline Times Article, ‘A Stumbling Trump Receives a Well-Deserved Shellacking at the First Presidential Debate’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/11/donald-trump-kamala-harris-debate-president-receives-shellacking-at-the-first-presidential-showdown/ Listen to Mehdi Hassan on the Guardian pod explain Gish-Galloping and how Donald Trump’s debate strategy usually works and how it can be (and was defeated): https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000668961270 Listen to the 538 on the history Presidential Debates and how much they have swung the polls in the past: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast
S1 E65 · Tue, September 10, 2024
Ep65. Why is Harris not appealing to middle - aged white men? Plus listener questions on migration, the NHS, and Ukraine
This week, Jason and Alex catchup after an eventful summer. Alex discusses her main takeaways from her trip to Tbilisi for the McCain forum, while Jason talks about his conversations back in New Jersey with real American voters. These conversations are giving him a pit in his stomach. His mounting concern is that Harris may fall into the Clinton trap – turning off traditionally Democratic voting white middle-aged men who are not from the coastal elite. Jason has been speaking to some ‘real Americans’ and hearing that they find Harris an uppity female lawyer, who doesn’t stand for anything, and who is too inauthentic to win the 2024 US Presidential election. Pivoting away from this doom and gloom, the duo take listener questions. They look at how host countries could better assimilate migrants; whether Starmer should take a braver approach to push the UK back into the single market; how to stave off the rise in populist parties like AfD; how to push back against anti-Ukrainian conspiracy theories from one’s colleagues; and if a nationalised health system like the NHS can deliver ‘Ordering Solutions’ for its population or if the failure of the NHS at present showcases that state-led mega ordering is simply not possible in today’s world. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to our million downloads episode which was referenced numerous times, especially about Sweden, Privatization, health care, and assimilation/migration, https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/0c8bf88a4b5b3bfc2ba60f36c12bc4de And for more on Harris and her problems being bold and landing with White men: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-political-director-warns-of-trouble-sign-for-harris-as-she-lags-with-white-male-voters-in-key-states/ar-AA1q3lkL And her problems also surface with Hispanic voters, especially men: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/skeptical-voters-wrestle-know-kamala-harris-seen-donald-trump-rcna168784 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E64 · Tue, September 03, 2024
Ep64. Part 2: Nationalism – Can it be reclaimed for Order?
Harvey Whitehouse, author of Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World, rejoins Jason Pack for part 2 of their discussion. The duo discuss: whether nationalism can be used for good (rather than just as a calling card for Neo-Populists and disorderers); whether playing off of evolutionary biases towards in-group solidarity might be necessary to solve the collective action problems of today’s world, how putting policy creation in the hands of citizens assemblies might help us Order the Disorder; and what lessons traditional religiosity could teach us about creating Order. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Harvey’s book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227 For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research: https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/ Explore the ideas of Peter Turchin’s ‘Ultrasociety’: https://peterturchin.com/book/ultrasociety/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E63 · Tue, August 27, 2024
Ep63. Part 1: Does our biology facilitate our Global Disorder?
Over the last two decades the seemingly ‘connecting’ phenomena of globalization and the internet have not made human communities more united. Seemingly paradoxically, aided by new technologies and interconnections, new forms of tribalism, superstition, in-group conformism, and out-group hatred have spread. Are these patterns of in-group solidarity and out-group distrust just the way humans are biologically wired to think? In today’s episode, Jason Pack is joined by Harvey Whitehouse, Director of the Centre for the Study of Social Cohesion at Oxford University and author of Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World. Jason and Harvey explore: why cultivating a deeper understanding of evolutionary biology helps us explain the exact sociological appeal of strongmen like Putin and Trump; whether the decline in global religiosity has made societies less governable; and why the concept of identity fusion can shed light on how humans see their very essence of their being as part of a group and are willing to act collectively and selflessly to achieve what are perceived as shared interests. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Harvey’s book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227 For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research: https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/ Listen back to Claire York in ‘Ep39. What Role, if any, is there for Empathy in Ordering the Disorder?’ https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/ddabc397bd974b61f558504f5fff388f Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E62 · Tue, August 20, 2024
Ep62. Celebrating ONE MILLION Downloads
To celebrate ONE MILLION downloads (thanks mega orderers!), Jason is joined by his best friend and lecturer at the Swedish Defence College, Karl Karim Zakhour. The two ruminate on a host of topics including: the rather surprising interconnections between neo-liberal reforms in Sweden and Syria and what they tell us about our era of Global Enduring Disorder; whether 2004 was the worst year in geopolitics, but the best year to drink arak in Damascus; whether a certain kind of vulgar Hegelianism might just save us from the current disorder; and whether Kier Starmer might just have what it takes to be the antidote to the rise of the far-right authoritarians. The episode concludes with Jason taking stock of what he has learned from doing the Disorder pod by laying out his vision for the kind of global institutions needed to make a Global Enduring Order come into being while Karim explains why bottom-up organizing and more voluntary associations are also needed to help us Order the Disorder. Links: For more on Karim Zakhour and the Försvarshögskolan: https://www.fhs.se/sc/profile-page.html?identity=400.506a10b718cee96f44e50adb The Origins of AGE: From States and Markets to Scientific Methods ( https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-13722-8_23 ) What will the world look like in a hundred years? What will the study of international relations be like? This article lays out a vision of the future, at once familiar and unexpected. Entrepreneurs of desperation: Young men and migration in interior Tunisia ( https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003353232-11/entrepreneurs-desperation-karim-zakhour ) The article looks at how young men in Tunisia try to navigate around harsh economic realities and dream of better lives. While We Wait: Democratization, State and Citizenship among Young Men in Tunisia's Interior Regions ( https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1456250&dswid=5417 ) Why did the Tunisian democratic experiment fail? Based on long fieldwork this Ph. D thesis argues that democratization creates both opportunities and deep uncertainties that are amplified by economic failures and thus creates its own authoritarian reaction. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn <stro
S1 E61 · Tue, August 13, 2024
Ep61. Could AI help us Order the Disorder?
We all know about the potential threats as AI becomes more advanced. They range from spreading disinformation, undermining our democracy (as discussed in our previous episode with Miles Taylor), to completely upending the job market. But could AI be used to radically transform the way bureaucracy works (making it more efficient) and helping us Order the Disorder? To discuss whether AI could be used as an ‘Ordering Force’ if regulated properly, Jason is joined by Marc Warner. Marc is the founder of Faculty.AI, and has worked with many UK government agencies and leading multinational brands to implement impactful AI solutions. He sat on the Prime Minister’s AI Council, helped the NHS use AI to save thousands of lives during the pandemic, and attended the first ever AI Safety Summit. Jason and Marc discuss: the role AI could play in fixing Britain’s broken public services, whether a Starmer-led Britain could become an AI superpower, and how the whole globe desperately needs global co-ordination to keep AI from turning into a Disordering technology. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to our previous episode with Miles Taylor, Ep25. Could Artificial Intelligence-powered disinformation campaigns cause electoral mayhem? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed Read: ‘Using AI to transform public services’ (foreword written by Marc & Tony Blair) https://www.institute.global/insights/politics-and-governance/governing-in-the-age-of-ai-a-new-model-to-transform-the-state Watch: ‘Human Led AI’ - a talk by Marc https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/human-led-ai Read: ‘AI Could Save (the UK) Government £200 Billion Over Five Years’ https://www.institute.global/insights/news/ai-could-save-government-gbp200-billion-over-five-years Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E60 · Thu, August 08, 2024
Ep60. Question Time: The ICC, Unelected Disorderers, and why Ukraine should not be forced to make peace
In this episode, Jason and Alex answer some questions from our mega orderers. They discuss: the ICC’s role as an ordering institution and its controversial positions on Israel/Palestine; the difference lens and standards through which we need to view elected vs. unelected Disorderers; and why the West can’t compromise with any of Putin’s demands – or even negotiate with him – but needs to exhibit ironclad resolve in backing Ukraine’s willingness to fight. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Full Text of ICC Application for Arrest Warrants https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-icc-prosecutor-karim-khans-application-for-arrest-warrants/ Listen to our episode with Bill Browder, Ep26. Was Alexei Navalny a Martyr for Democracy? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece Hear our episode with Evgenia Kara Murza, Ep23. Is the democratic world morally responsible for allowing Putin's rise? With Evgenia Kara-Murza https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E59 · Tue, August 06, 2024
Ep59. Part 2: Could a new global institution help Order the Disorder?
In part 2 of our discussion with Jamie Metzl, author of Superconvergence, Jaime tells Jason about his idea for creating a new global body tasked with regulated existential risks. Jaime is a super order who sees most of the threats facing humanity as fundamentally linked and wishes to adopt one coherent and coordinated approach to Order the Disorder. Trying to unpick how such regulation could be done, Jamie, Jason and Alex each analyse the differences between an American and European approach to regulating new industries. Alex and Jason close the episode by proposing how the EU could use its trading might to incentivize global co-ordination on issues like climate change and AI. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E58 · Tue, July 30, 2024
Ep58. Part 1: Will the Burgeoning Bioeconomy be a force for Order or for Disorder?
Advanced biotech (CRISPR gene editing, gene drives, personalized medicine) could be the most Disordering technology ever invented. Techniques like gene drives could help us eradicate malaria by sterilising mosquitoes, but could they also spell the end of humanity (by unleashing unintended consequences)? Or release a new pandemic – think COVID-19 which was likely caused by a lab lead of a manmade super virus – into the population? While biotech offers the potential to revolutionise everything, no one has yet proposed any coherent regulations over this domain. Seeking to learn more about advances in Biotech and how they interact with AI, globalization, and climate change we are joined by Jamie Metzl. Jamie is the author of Superconvergence, and Founder and Chair of the global social movement, OneShared.World. He and Jason discuss the vast opportunities and profound threats that emanate from biotech. Jason puts forth a more socially conservative vision that we need to learn from our collective past, what Jason calls the ‘French-peasant’ approach, while Jaime poopoos that approach advancing more boldly futuristic solutions. To Order the Disorder, Jason and Alex discuss whether top-down or bottom-up governance solutions could help solve this issue, and what we need to do to regain the public’s trust in experts. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com/ For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com/ And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E57 · Thu, July 25, 2024
Ep57. Tunisia’s Postponed Presidential elections
The Economist called Tunisia a “light unto the Arab nations” just a decade ago, yet it may soon be fading into darkness. We talk with Tunisia’s Leading Opposition Presidential Candidate, Olfa Hamdi, to find out why. Amidst this biggest year of elections in human history, the Tunisian election (initially scheduled for July 25 and now pushed back to October 6) has been largely forgotten in the mainstream media and even ignored by western policymakers. Yet, the dynamics at play in neo-populism’s current ascendancy in Tunisia – fear of migrants, coordination failures on behalf of Western allies, as well as Chinese and Russian meddling – are a perfect microcosm of the key aspects of Enduring Disorder elsewhere. On the pod, Jason is joined by Tunisian Presidential candidate Olfa Hamdi: the founder and leader of the Third Republic Party of Tunisia and former CEO and Chairwoman of the Tunisian National Airline Tunisair. She and Jason investigate: the return of communism in Tunisia; President Qais Saied’s foreign policy alignment with Russia and China; pressures emanating from the southern border of NATO; Europe’s loss of the moral high ground, and the larger topics of the western foreign policy towards the Arab world and the battle to uphold democratic norms and checks and balances throughout the world. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Olfa Hamdi Announces 2024 Presidential Campaign in Tunisia: https://www.newswire.com/news/olfa-hamdi-announces-2024-presidential-campaign-in-tunisia-22169766 Tunisia’s Backsliding Democracy Turns on Migrants: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/tunisia-elections-saied-ghannouchi-eu-migration-deal/ Tunisia abandons two-state solution; courts Iran, China, and Russia: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tunisia-abandons-two-state-solution-courts-iran-china-and-russia Tunisia: Joint Statement Calling for End to Crackdown: https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/06/18/tunisia-joint-statement-calling-end-crackdown Tunisia's 2024 election: What role will migration play? https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521 Young Tunisians Don’t Trust Kais Saied Anymore: https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://podcastchoices.com/adcho
S1 E56 · Mon, July 22, 2024
Ep56. Nothing became his presidency like the leaving of it
Legend has it that when King George III heard that George Washington, had decided to retire after his second term, he remarked: “If he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world.” On July 21, 2024, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. can justifiably claim to have done one of the most heroic acts in human history. Jason may be quoting the Guardian article (whose link is further down in the shownotes), but he is not exaggerating. Few people voluntarily leave supreme power. Popes, Ayatollah, Presidents, Supreme Court Justices, and Dictators largely do not step down. They either die in office or lose power. Power is too addictive and seductive. Biden has stepped down and may go do in history as a modern-day Cincinnatus. He avoided the Ruth Bader Ginsburg trap. Yes, it might have been better had it happened sooner and in a more choreographed fashion rather than Adam Schiff and George Clooney having to pull him off stage left with a cane. Yet, better late than never. On this Emergency cast: Jason and Alex discuss where they were when they heard this momentous news; the bizarre oddities of the recent Republican National Convention; Trump’s selection of J D Vance as his running mate; the protectionist/America-first agenda of the Trump/Vance ticket; and how the Dems can now try to order the disorder globally and domestically but weaving a new narrative. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Biden’s selfless decision to drop out sets stage for an entirely different election: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/21/biden-decision-drop-analysis Nicholas Kristof: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/09/opinion/thepoint#biden-drop-out-meaning Alexandra Hall Hall’s recent Byline Times article: ‘Assassination Attempts and the Rise of the Right – Amid the Turmoil, Britain is Emerging as a Steadying Force’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/19/assassination-attempts-and-the-rise-of-the-right-amid-the-turmoil-britain-is-emerging-as-a-steadying-force/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E55 · Thu, July 18, 2024
Ep55. NATO Summit 2024 – Did it help Order the Disorder?
A week ago today, NATO wrapped up its 75th anniversary summit. At the event genuine support of Ukraine was on full display. Discussion of how to Trump-proof NATO dominated the agenda, partnerships with NATO’s southern periphery were side stepped and the war in Gaza was largely ignored. All of this was choreographed to project unity and paper over disagreements within the alliance. But do such optics actually help to Order the Disorder? To find out we’re joined by Jane Kinninmont – who was in Washington at the Summit. She tells Jason about the discussions on the margins of the summit – mostly about Joe Biden – and the glaring omission from the formal agenda: the Israel-Gaza conflict. She also shares a live-show discussion among her; Élie Tenenbaum, the Director of IFRI’s Security Studies Centre in Paris, just back from a mission to Kyiv; and Dr. Isabelle Werenfels, a senior fellow at the German think tank SWP. The trio opine on their impressions of the summit, the key announcements on Ukraine (which were quite minimal), the role of Spain in raising the Gaza issue, and what a Trump presidency might mean for NATO. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links “Trump-proofing NATO” has been one of the buzzwords around this summit. The BBC covers the issue here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3gr90jnxjvo The NATO summit’s official communique is here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm Jane, Isabelle and Élie were all members of an independent experts group appointed by the NATO Secretary-General to contribute ideas on NATO’s approach to the Middle East and Africa, some of which were picked up in the summit communique. The expert group report can be found here: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/5/pdf/240507-NATO-South-Report.pdf Jane and Isabelle wrote a version of the report here as a policy brief for SWP: https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2024C25/ Elie’s most recent study on the military situation in Ukraine can be found here: https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/politique-etrangere/articles-de-politique-etrangere/
S1 E54 · Tue, July 16, 2024
Ep54. If you come for the King, best not miss
In bye gone moons, Trump inadvertently quoted Ralf Waldo Emerson, “When you strike at the King, you must kill him.” Yet on Saturday July 13, Donald Trump survived an attempt to gun him down at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Will this be one of those pivotal moments which go down in history - like the assassination of Lincoln; of Archduke Franz Ferdinand; JFK, RFK, or MLK? Or will it be like with Gavrilo Princip’s predecessors, assassins are only remembered if they succeed. Others tried to assassinate the Archduke and History won't remember them because they missed. Alex and Jason predict that Thomas Matthew Crooks will not be a household name for long and the impact he will have on history is likely very much the opposite of what he might have intended. Alex shares how she felt while hearing the news at a baseball tournament, while Jason shares his experience hearing the news from Saltsjoboden at the Swedish Open of backgammon. Professional gamblers noted to Jason that after the assassination attempt that the betting markets moved instantly in favour of Trump, even more so than after Biden’s poor debate performance. As always Jason and Alex try to order the disorder by discussing the messianic narratives around Trump and how his supporters always viewed him as a perennial victim/martyr. Now having survived this attempt on his life, it seems likely that his saintliness and blessedness in their eyes will morph into a kind of hagiography. We conclude by discussing how the Democrats could use this moment to try to rally the country together around a new kind of unifying vision. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links JD Vance selected as Trump’s running mate: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-announces-ohio-senator-j-d-vance-his-2024-running-mate Many high profile figures believe that surviving the assassination attempt makes Trump’s re-election a done deal: https://www.euronews.com/culture/2024/07/15/the-election-is-over-celebrities-react-to-donald-trump-assassination-attempt Trump says he will announce VP pick: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-rnc-news-biden For More on the Republican convention: As Alex mentioned: Judge dismisses classified document
S1 E53 · Thu, July 11, 2024
Ep53. NATOs 75th Summit – Where the real Ordering happens?
NATO is the longest lasting and most successful military alliance in human history. Today NATOs 75th Summit in Washington, DC comes to a close. What can NATO’s past tell us about its probably future? To commemorate this symbolic occasion, Jason is joined by Peter Apps. He is the author of ‘Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO’, a global defence columnist for Reuters, and a British Army reservist. He has reported from more than 20 countries over two decades, despite being paralyzed in a frontline car crash in Sri Lanka in 2006. Jason and Peter discuss: Lord Ismay’s dictum; how has the Ukraine war affected the alliance?; how important are personalities to the alliance and how it works?; and how can NATO’s history, institutional biography, and legacy of diplomatic flexibility shed some light on how it might respond to the unprecedented challenges around it — from the rise of the far right in National Rally in France, the AfD in Germany, to the spectre of Trump — and the challenges posed to NATO by Putin, Xi, climate change, AI, and misinformation. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Peter’s book Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO: the "astonishingly fine history" of the world's most successful military alliance https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deterring-Armageddon-Biography-astonishingly-successful/dp/103540575X Listen to Disorder Ep6. NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? with Kori Shacke, Timothy Garton Ash, Jamie Shea and Charles Kupchan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9472a8b7d262dd9fb0cd9827e8947964 About the NATO Defense College Foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/about-us Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E52 · Mon, July 08, 2024
Ep52. Suburban Lib Dem Mums and Centrist Starmer Dads take back control
‘The people that walked in darkness have seen a great light; and they that dwell in the land of the shadow of Brexit, upon them hath the light shined.’ (Isaiah 9, v.2 with only one word changed) In retrospect, the melodies and lyrics of Handel’s Messiah appear quite appropriate for this most non-Messianic of Messiahs, the man of our moment, Sir Keir. Therefore, despite Alex and Jason’s fear about the large Reform vote and their trepidation about Biden’s remaining in the US Presidential race, they still make time to ‘Rejoice, Rejoice, Rejoice Greatly’ because British democracy does work. It operates via a system of checks and balances -- where every action causes a counter reaction, and every Sunak Rwanda scheme, Truss tanking of the economy, and Boris-y lie elicits a shift in public opinion. Despite the positive news of Britian’s Independence from Neo-Populists, the Enduring Disorder still prevails in many corners of these resplendent Isles. Jason tells of his undercover ethnographic field trip to Clacton-on-Sea, where he discovers that Reform are actually just the UK branch of the MAGA movement. Jason and Alex debate if: 1) Britain is in a phase of post-populism or proto-populism; 2) if the wave has crested or if Britain is just at an earlier stage in development than France or the USA; 3) What we can extrapolate about how the British electorate’s protest votes over Gaza or immigration bode for the American election; and 4) the power of the anti-system and anti-incumbency pressures and how these two factors might be the big difference btw the British and American elections -- as in the US both anti-system and anti-incumbency tendencies are working for the Republicans and against the Dems, whereas in the July 4 UK election the anti-system vote worked against the Tories and for Reform while the anti-incumbency vote worked for the Tories and against Labour. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack to get a recent clip of Jason on Al Jazeera English talking about Sir Keir’s approach to Gaza: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Oh Baby What a Night, the Two Matts on the Rise of the Lib Dems and Starmer’s flawless mastery of the first past the post system: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-two-matts/id1236139906?i=1000661232273 Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lam
S1 E51 · Tue, July 02, 2024
Ep51. UK Elections: A lone bright spot for global Order?
Later this week as they go to the polls, UK voters will likely celebrate their very own ‘Independence from Neo-Populists Day’. With Labour widely expected to secure a large majority… could this be a chance for Order within an increasingly Disordered West? If he cruises to victory, as expected, how will Sir Keir manage his relations with the EU and US? In this episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the rather uninspiring election campaign so far. They analyse why Labour’s play-it-safe ‘Gareth Southgate approach’ is dissuading some voters; what a Starmer premiership means for the UK’s relationship with the EU (could some stealth mega-ordering be on the horizon?); and how David Lammy and Kier would almost certainly reignite an increasingly ‘special relationship’ with a Biden/Democrat-led US, or how they would struggle to navigate a ‘specially-challenged-relationship’ with a Trump-led White House. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read In Picture-Postcard English Villages, a Seismic Political Shift Is Underway (on Jeremy Hunt) from the New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/world/europe/uk-election-jeremy-hunt.html Sir Keir Starmer must win. Only his government can shape the future we want to see: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2024/jun/28/the-guardian-view-on-the-general-election-2024-a-labour-victory-would-be-a-reason-for-hope And when will we get the results: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/21/general-election-timetable-when-what-time-results/ Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E50 · Fri, June 28, 2024
Ep50. The Emperor has no clothes - Biden’s disorderly debate performance
After months of the grandees in the Democratic party telling the public that Biden’s age was nothing to worry about: the Global Orderer-in Chief has been shown to have no clothes and his adult diapers were not changed prior to his appearing before an audience of tens of millions. As Mega-Orderers know, Jason is prone to melodrama, but in this instance the Sky Really Is Falling! June 27, 2024 may go down there as one of those dates like Dec 7, 1941 and June 23, 2016: Dates that will live on in infamy. Biden’s debate performance truly has massive implications for global order: it will embolden Pyongyang, Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow; it creates a dangerous global vacuum with an absence of orderers for many months until the dust settles from the US election; and it leaves the democratic party with an urgent choice how to choreography the process of substituting Biden out for a younger candidate. To counterbalance Jason’s doom and gloom, he is joined by the ever up beat Glaswegian Jane Kinninmont who presents the view on Biden from the European capitals. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links As for what needs to happen now, here are what centrist Democrats commentators are saying: Tom Friedman: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html Frank Bruni: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/presidential-debate-trump-biden-2024.html Scores of cogent podcasts have emerged dissecting the optics of the debate and what the Dems have to do now. Here are a couple that we have found particularly useful: Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-presidential-debate.html The Rest is Politics US: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/advantage-trump-will-the-democrats-move-to-replace/id1743030473?i=1000660512902 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E49 · Fri, June 28, 2024
Ep49. Did WWI start our era of Disorder?
Exactly 110 years ago, a malnourished teenager with a pistol disordered the world. On Sunday the 28th of June 1914, Gavrilo Princip fired two bullets. They hit their targets -- killing both the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian imperial crown, and his wife, Sophie. That event ended the age of the traditional European empires, unleashed the mud and blood of the Great War, catalysed the fall of the Tsar and theoretical Marxism’s transformation into a totalitarian reality, and uncorked the nationalist genie that would lead to Hitler, the Second World War, the Holocaust, and later the Cold War. But did it also start our era of Enduring Disorder? Jason has certain contentions about the relative degree of order and disorder in the past -- notably that the years 1815-2011, in general, and 1946-2003, in specific, were periods characterized by global order and coherent hegemonic leadership -- but what if he is wrong? What if our global disorder didn’t start in 2003 but rather in 1914? In this special anniversary episode of Disorder, Tim Butcher tells Jason Pack about that fateful day exactly 110 years ago, what its disordering implications have been, how they have rippled down the years, and how modern history can be thought to have begun on that street corner in Sarajevo. Princip has been variously described as the `bloodiest assassin in history’ and ‘the most important person in the entire 20th century’… but in this episode, we are going to investigate if he is -- possibly more so than even Trump, Putin or the Ayatollahs -- our world’s true disorder-in-chief… As Tim explains, there is every reason to feel that the world of the Fin de Siècle was in fact more order than what came after it and that Princip is the author of the Disorder that we now inhabit. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Buy ‘The Trigger: Hunting the Assassin Who Brought the World to War’ by Tim Butcher - https://www.amazon.com/Trigger-Hunting-Assassin-Brought-World/dp/0802123899/ For more on Gavrilo Princip’s biography: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Gavrilo-Princip For more on Tim Butcher’s amazing career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wik
S1 E48 · Tue, June 25, 2024
Ep48. Hotter or Poorer? Should Gulf States care about global warming?
We celebrate 9 full months of Disorder with a live studio recording. Climate change hasn’t been acted on coherently by a coalition of major powers, while certain governments and businesses have prevented climate action choosing to pursue short-term goals. Is this to be expected? Is it rational for some governments and business to pull in different directions or are they missing the plot and thinking too short-term? But then again, is it in the long-term interest of most major states, citizens, and multinational corporations to work together to fight climate change? Or is it actually a rational calculation for certain states or corporations (like oil producing ones) to fight the creation of global coordination mechanisms and delay the energy transition and look to profit from the current high demand for the fossil fuels that they either export or produce? To discuss this issue, Jason Pack is joined by Olivia Azadegan and Hassan Damluji. Hassan Damluji is a British-Iraqi development expert and author of The Responsible Globalist: What Citizens of the World Can Learn from Nationalism. He is Co-founder of Global Nation, which focuses on improving international cooperation to combat climate change, pandemics, inequality and conflict. Olivia Azadegan is a British-Iranian, a fellow at the Women Leaders in Energy and Climate Change at the Atlantic Council and a winner of a Forbes 30 under 30 Award. The trio discuss: what is the role of the MENA region in fighting climate change, how can nations effectively coordinate to incentivise each other to act now, and why low hanging fruit like reducing methane emissions could help us Order the Disorder. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to our previous Climate Change focusing on COP episode at: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/57a09a9714313530fa16475c09396f7b For more on COP and collective action: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/12/13/in-a-first-cop28-targets-the-root-cause-of-climate-change How MENA countries face achieving climate resilience: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/04/assessing-climate-adaptation-plans-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa?lang=en E
S1 E47 · Thu, June 20, 2024
Ep47. Has the essence of Warfare changed?
Renowned Israeli Military historian Martin Van Creveld explains to Disorder listeners how certain essential elements of warfare have remained constant overtime. These continuities have been frequently overlooked in the sensationalizing media coverage of the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. In major interstate warfare, the defense retains its traditional advantages just as it did when Carl von Clausewitz penned his famous ‘On War’; in counter insurgency warfare separating insurgents from the shelter they receive from the local population remains as complex as when Mao Tze Dong wrote his ‘On Guerrilla Warfare’; and maintaining deterrence vis a vis one’s adversaries remains just as important as when Theodore Roosevelt suggested at the Minnesota State Fair in 1901 that one should ‘speak softly, and carry a big stick.’ Drawing on his extensive research over decades, Martin presents a rare treat for Disorder listeners sharing his theories on deterrence, the imitative nature of war, what makes people willing to fight and die, the tragedy of the Palestinians, propaganda in War, and what can be done to help Israelis and Palestinians understand each other’s narratives better. Martin Van Creveld has written 33 books with fluidity and grace on topics as wide ranging as tank battles, feminism, human consciousness, Western philosophy, and terrorism. Martin has briefed every major Western military and his books ‘Command in War’; ‘Supplying War: Logistics from Wallenstein to Patton’; ‘The Transformation of War’; ‘The Sword and the Olive’ and ‘The Rise and Decline of the State’; ‘the Culture of War’; ‘Pussycats: The West and the Rest’ have changed how war is studied at military academies the world over. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links On supply in War: https://www.bookandsword.com/2021/07/03/some-thoughts-on-van-crevelds-supplying-war/ On airpower: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/24/books/review/book-review-the-age-of-airpower-by-martin-van-creveld.html Famous Martin Van Creveld Quotes: https://www.azquotes.com/author/3400-Martin_Van_Creveld Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E46 · Tue, June 18, 2024
Ep46. Is a truly progressive foreign policy compatible with Ordering the Disorder?
Heretofore, this podcast has largely examined the blame that neo-liberals, neo-conservatives, and neo-populists on the Right bear in causing our era of global enduring disorder. Now is the turn to set our crosshairs on the disorder that comes from the ideas of the Left. Recent events reveal that the Left lacks a coherent vision of the global economy, of global institutions, and possibly of the objectives of Western foreign policy in general. To be intellectually honest, we must ask is the progressive Left as guilty as the neo-populist Right in disordering the globe? These days, many on the progressive left are outraged with Biden, Sunak, and Starmer’s centrism and demand a more humanitarian approach to Anglo-American foreign policy, but are those progressive voices sufficiently concerned about whether or not their preferred approach will lead to global order? Jason is joined by Professor Megan Stewart of the University of Michigan to discuss the implications of her co-authored essay in Foreign Affairs, ‘The Progressive Case Against Retrenchment’. Megan explains that progressive American scholars have largely characterized their ‘progressive vision of foreign policy’ as one where the US and the West restrains its exercise of hegemonic power abroad. She explains that for these progressive thinkers, the U.S. is the greatest source of imperialism, war, and insecurity. Megan explains why they think this way and Jason shares his feelings that this train of thought is a recipe for further disorder. Megan concludes with a dose of hard nose realism arguing that force MAY be justified on progressive grounds, and that a truly progressive foreign policy means grappling with inevitable tradeoffs and trying to minimize them. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Megan's co-authored article The Progressive Case for American Power https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/progressive-case-american-power For more on Megan: https://www.meganastewart.org/bio Her book Governing For Revolution: Social Transformation in Civil War: https://www.meganastewart.org/book-project Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E45 · Tue, June 11, 2024
Ep45. Part 2: Is Britain in the Moral Superiority Industry?
The sordid tale of Tory mega donor, Mohamed Amersi, and his libel suit against Charlotte Leslie was an attempt to turn money into control over the truth. To our mind, there is no greater example of how the underlying principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder connect bribery in Kazakhstan and Kathmandu to Brexit, the Ukraine war, and shadowy consultancies which offer pay-for-play access to the British elite. In part 2 of Jason’s conversation with Tom Burgis, the duo talk about some of the biggest corruption cases in British history, how the complex story of post-Cold War deregulation has fuelled both global corruption and donations to the Tory party. This story has surprising implications for who has access to the British royal family and fundamentally who owns the truth. After the interview, Jason and Alex ‘Order the Disorder’ by discussing whether increased international co-ordination can curtail illegal money flows, and what a potential incoming Starmer-led Labour government could do domestically to prevent illicit gains from being recycled into campaign donations. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Tom’s book Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth https://tomburgis.com/cuckooland Read the New Stateman’s, ‘Britain’s new oligarchy Tom Burgis’s Cuckooland shows how the power to shape our politics is available to the highest bidder.’ https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2024/03/britain-new-oligarchy-tom-burgis-cuckooland For more on CMEC’s visit to rogue Libyan general Haftar: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/libyan-general-haftar-meets-uk-conservative-delegation For more on Mohamed Amersi and his liable suit against Charlotte Leslie, read Tom’s ‘Tory fundraising machine to come under scrutiny in UK court case’ in the FT here: https://www.ft.com/content/fcf90497-e283-4645-b18f-d95d35ff3fcd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E44 · Tue, June 04, 2024
Ep44. Part 1: Are Corruption and Kleptocracy at the very heart of the Enduring Disorder?
Corruption, in one form or another, is as old as civilization. As long as there have been governmental authorities, private businesspeople have found ways to bribe them to get preferential deals. So, what is different about corruption in our era of Global Enduring Disorder? To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Tom Burgis -- award winning investigative journalist, and author of Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth. In this episode (Part 1 of 2), the duo discuss how laws and decisions in the City of London and Washington, DC actually enable kleptocratic behaviour in places like Nigeria and Kazakhstan. Plus: why are skilled middlemen and fixers so critical in enabling transnational corruption? And what kind of systemic risks do such dirty dealings abroad and the offshoring of illicit gains pose to our own politics and security? To Order the Disorder, Alex Hall Hall joins Jason to analyse how the conduits of mega corruption is actually at the centre of our post-Cold War global story, and not at its periphery. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Tom’s book Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth https://tomburgis.com/cuckooland Read the New Stateman’s, ‘Britain’s new oligarchy - Tom Burgis’s Cuckooland shows how the power to shape our politics is available to the highest bidder.’ https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2024/03/britain-new-oligarchy-tom-burgis-cuckooland Read PodBible’s interview with Alex and Jason here: https://podbiblemag.com/disorder-giving-order-to-the-global-enduring-disorder/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E43 · Tue, May 28, 2024
Ep43. Are we having enough babies? And listeners questions
At the end of the 20th century many world governments sought to lower birth rates – e.g. China’s One Child Policy – but now in 2024… most major world governments are focussed on bringing fertility rates up. In fact, nearly all of the developed world is facing a declining and aging population. Hence, for the first time in human history a majority of the globe’s population now lives under governments with a stated intent to influence childbearing. So why do so many governments seem obsessed with national fertility rates? Should they be in the business of encouraging more people to have children – and if yes, what kind of incentives do or don’t work? Are their coherent international regulations governing adoption and surrogacy and if not, why not? Is the domain of demography another realm of coordination failures and enduring disorder? To start this week’s episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the overall demographic state of our planet and why there can be so much traffic at the Holland Tunnel even amidst failing fertility rates. Alex talks about her own IVF journey and the thought process that led to the eventual adoption of her kids and she discusses why governments need holistic approaches to fertility rather than the mere use of cash incentives. Jason rails about the glaring need for global governance to provide universally acknowledged rules concerning adoption, surrogacy, and to deter the use of those pesky chemicals in plastics that reduce men’s sperm counts. To close the show, Alex and Jason take some listener questions. They cover: 1) Could Russia implode when Putin loses in Ukraine? 2) Should Britain finally create a written constitution? 3) Are voices that point out western hypocrisy without proposing solutions actually spreading disorder? And 4) All things considered (meaning holidays, NHS, and public transport) is one better compensated in the UK or US for the same work? Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to Birthrates Are Plummeting Worldwide. Why? https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-ezra-klein-show/id1548604447?i=1000649683423 Hear Are we living through an infertility epidemic? https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000650753528 Listen to The Guardian’s The chilling policy to cut Greenland’s high birth rate <a href="https://podcasts.
S1 E42 · Sat, May 25, 2024
Ep42. Britain's True Independence (from Neopopulists) Day
Jason is so so so excited he just just just can’t hide it. He sees the hand of a providential mega orderer at work with the UK going to a general election on July 4th. He doesn’t understand why his British friends poopoo his man crush on Starmer, because he sees Sir Keir as truly messianic in his non-messianic-ness and as a better, younger, more competent version of Biden. To get a native-born insider’s view on the election, Jason is joined by his Scottish doppelganger (Jane Kinninmont) to discuss what the election could mean for UK foreign policy, post-July 4th Britian’s ability to be an orderer on the global stage, and also what this election timing means for developments North of Hadrian’s wall. The duo discuss: alternate theories as to why this election timing came about, where the electoral battlelines are being drawn (solidly in the centre ground – especially on foreign policy), if the electoral competition is not focused on wildly different worldviews but on competence, and the potentially disordering role of anti-system players like Corbyn, Galloway, Farage, and Richard Tice. The show ends with Jason putting forward his mystical grand unified theory of how Irish, Italian, Israeli, and British elections effect US elections. You wouldn’t want to miss it. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links: For a quick overview of the mechanics of how Sunak’s team called the General Election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rr73w103vo For Arthur Snell’s recent substack: ‘Is this why he called it now?, An excellent new podcast gave me thought of a possible reason for Sunak's timing: https://arthursnell.substack.com/p/is-this-why-he-called-it-now Inflation in UK now lower than in EU or US and yet GBP to USD still strong: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-election-date-lifts-fog-over-promising-market-recovery-2024-05-23/ How a potential disordering disaster has been averted: BEN ANSELL, in the FT on ‘Parallel US and UK elections could bring dangers’: https://www.ft.com/content/176d4b78-1e9a-45c9-8c3c-a74e758ec22f David Lammy on Labour’s Foreign Policy vision: <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/members-event/
S1 E41 · Tue, May 21, 2024
Ep41. Iran’s Disorderer-in-Chief Dies; and as Russia Advances, Is Kharkiv at risk of being turned into Mariupol?
The sun is shining, the flowers are in bloom, there is a dense fog over the Iranian-Azeri border, what time does that make it? Russo-Ukrainian Summer Offensive Time! This episode starts with a short emergency-cast about the crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter due to fog. Jason briefly investigates if the death of this ‘disorderer-in-chief’ is likely to bring any more order to the Middle East region, before rejoining our regularly scheduled programming about Ukraine. Over the last two weeks, Russia has been gaining territory in Ukraine’s northeast, while the shelling of Kharkiv has progressively increased. This does not come as a surprise. The Ukrainians have been on the back foot militarily since their 2023 Summer offensive stalled. What is the strategic logic of Russia’s recent advance? Jason is joined by acclaimed military historian Saul David. He co-hosts our sister podcast within the Goalhanger network, Battleground. Saul and Jason debate the strategic logic behind Russia’s recent moves – proposing three alternative theses for Russia’s actions: 1) Putin is trying to create a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine; 2) the current offensive is a faint to draw Ukrainian troops to the north prior to a Russian attack in Donbass; 3) Russia is trying to turn Kharkiv into Mariupol, Grozny, or Aleppo, that is to say to aerially decimate the city and inflict tremendous humanitarian suffering on its populace without any hope of actually conquering it. After sketching a broad-brush stroke picture of the tactical and strategic situation on the ground, Saul and Jason discuss how new shipments of Western armaments will affect the current fighting; recent Russian attempts to assassinate President Zelensky; if the murder of Navalny has changed battlefield dynamics at all; the role of China and the ongoing Gaza war upon the fighting in Ukraine; and what are the relevant historical parallels to the current fighting and what lessons they hold for orderers. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For a quick overview of Iranian President Raisi’s death and what happens next: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/world/europe/raisi-iran-instability.html Listen to Goalhanger’s excellent Battleground Pod here: https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground <strong
S1 E40 · Thu, May 16, 2024
Ep40. What’s next for Georgia and its 'foreign agent’ law?
Earlier this week, Georgia passed its controversial ‘foreign agent’ law. Under the bill, NGOs and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations "bearing the interests of a foreign power”. The law has been met with mass protests across the country. So what does the passing of this bill mean for Georgia’s hope to become an EU and NATO member? What could it mean for the countries elections later this year? And how should the West respond? To find out, Alex Hall Hall (who served as Ambassador to Georgia), speaks to Ia Meurmishvili. An international journalist based in Washington, DC. She a former Managing Editor at Voice of America's Georgian Service, where she hosted the weekly TV show, "View from Washington." She is a frequent commentator and moderator in international discussions about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the Caucasus and Eurasia region. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Alex’s article How the Georgian ‘Foreign Agents Bill’ May Cost it Everything its People Have Ever Dreamed Of – And Benefit No One But Russia https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/02/how-the-georgian-foreign-agents-bill-may-cost-it-everything-its-people-have-ever-dreamed-of-and-benefit-no-one-but-russia/ Georgia approves controversial 'foreign agent' law, sparking more protests https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69007465 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E39 · Tue, May 14, 2024
Ep39. What Role, if any, is there for Empathy in Ordering the Disorder?
Part of the Enduring Disorder is our increasingly divided and partisan narratives. Trump vs. Biden, Leavers against Remainers, Palestinians and Israelis. Many of today’s political actors appear unable to understand and empathise with their opponent’s points of view. Why? Potential because social media, cancel culture, and increased partisanship seems to have actually decreased people’s ability to feel empathy or to desire it from their politicians. But should all our politicians just be more empathetic? Actually electorally that might not work. Do Democrats actually want to see Biden empathise with Speaker Johnson blocking aid to Ukraine? Would Labour voters accept it if Kier Starmer had sympathy with Boris Johnson lying to parliament? And does the Israeli electorate want a politician who has empathy for why Hamas committed the atrocities of Oct 7? So what does empathy really mean in geopolitics? And how can it actually be put into practice in today’s politics? Most crucially how could a genuinely empathetic politics be useful in trying to order the disorder? To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Dr Claire Yorke. She is an author and academic whose work explores the role and limitations of empathy and emotions in international relations, diplomacy, strategy, and political leadership. She is currently a Senior Lecturer at the Australian War College in Canberra. Jason and Claire discuss: what exactly is empathy? Can or should you empathise with someone that you fundamentally disagree with? And could empathetic leadership help us Order the Disorder? Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Claire’s essay, Is empathy a strategic imperative? https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2022.2152800 Read Claire Yorke: "Personal and Political Emotions in the Mind of the Diplomat.". https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2022.2152800 Claire’s website: https://claireyorke.me Find out more about Empathy Week – to help grow empathy in the classroom and create a new generation who understands its value - https://www.empathy-week.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E38 · Tue, May 07, 2024
Ep38. Could Germany and South Korea go nuclear?
Putin’s nuclear threats over Ukraine and the constant potential of an Iranian/Israeli escalation have brought concerns over nuclear proliferation back up the geopolitical agenda. Western-aligned Asian countries – like South Korea and Saudi Arabia – have begun talking openly about whether they might need their own nukes. Meanwhile, even Germany – one of the most avowedly anti-nuclear countries in Europe – is now having a new debate about whether there should be a “Eurobomb”. All these countries American allies are thinking of nuclearizing as they have a growing fear that they might not be able to rely on the US if the chips are down. All of this talk leads us to wonder will nuclear weapons ever be used and are nuclear threats and discussions of nuclearizing important even if the weapons will never be used? In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack talks to Jane Kinninmont. Jane is a peace and security expert with two decades of experience covering the Middle East, at the Economist Intelligence Unit and Chatham House. She is now with the European Leadership Network, which brings together more than 400 current, former and future European leaders to reduce nuclear risks and prevent conflict. The duo discuss: what are the risks of countries like South Korea, Germany and Saudi Arabia going nuclear? Is the current non-proliferation treaty regime up to scratch? And does nuclear non-proliferation actually work? Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Germany debates nuclear weapons, again. But now it’s different: https://thebulletin.org/2024/03/germany-debates-nuclear-weapons-again-but-now-its-different/ Read Keir Starmer: Labour commitment to nuclear weapons unshakeable: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68790435 For more on Jane’s background and work: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E37 · Tue, April 30, 2024
Ep37. (Part II) Former Armenian President Sarkissian on: Can a Club of Small States Order the Disorder?
Small states like Qatar, Ireland, Singapore, Jordan, and Botswana are thriving in our disordered world. They’re smart, agile, and are implementing novel solutions to the challenges of the 21st century. So what can the globe learn from them? In part 2 of his conversation with Dr Armen Sarkissian - Armenia’s former president and prime minister – Jason discusses Armen’s book, ‘The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World’. They look at how: 1) successful small states could use their growing economic power to promote stability, 2) how Armenia could leverage its most unique strategic resource, its diaspora, and 3) why bringing together small states into an international club – the S20 – could actually make a big difference in helping to Order the Disorder. In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jason and Alex discuss whether we’re in a world where smallness is an asset, how NATO and the EU should respond to Armenia’s geopolitical tilt towards the West, and whether the S20 could present novel ways to Order the Disorder. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Orderers, If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/ Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/ Armenia’s Westward shift and the new aid package: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Armenias-Shift-West-Draws-Ire-from-Moscow-and-Baku.html From the Washington Post: A cry for the refugees of emptied Nagorno-Karabakh: ‘We are nobody’: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/11/david-ignatius-nagorno-karabakh-refugees-azerbaijan-enclave/ On the Mayhem in the Georgian Parliament: https://twitter.com/OCMediaorg/status/1779820924734206064 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S36 E1 · Tue, April 23, 2024
Ep36. (Part I) Former Armenian President Sarkissian on: Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day
April 24th marks Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, but the tragic Ottoman massacres of Armenians of over a century ago have been largely forgotten in mainstream Western consciousness. Why? In the first of a two-part series, Jason is joined by Dr Armen Sarkissian, a world-renowned theoretical physicist, diplomat, and businessman. He was Armenia’s president from 2018 to 2022 and also its prime minister from 1996 to 1997. In their interview, they discuss the century old genocide, the novel round of ethnic cleansing that happened seven short months ago in Nagorno-Karabakh, how in the 1990s Armenia could have forged a peace deal from a position of strength with Azerbaijan but missed the opportunity, and why the legacy and implications of the Armenian genocide have been largely forgotten but are essential to maintaining any form of global order. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/ For the Encyclopedia Brittanica Definition of the Armenian Genocide: https://www.britannica.com/event/Armenian-Genocide/Genocide Armenia Under Siege: https://www.newsweek.com/armenia-under-siege-opinion-1889040 On Calouste Gulbenkian as Mr 5%, and the wealthiest man in the world in his day: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/jan/03/mr-five-per-cent-calouste-gulbenian-worlds-richest-man Controversial land sale puts Jerusalem Armenians on edge: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65876162 If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E35 · Fri, April 19, 2024
Ep35. Israel Strikes Back: Foolish Revenge or Calculated De-escalation?
In the early morning hours of 19 April, American officials told major news outlets that an Israeli missile had struck central Iran near its nuclear sites. No one was harmed. Officially, the Israelis are not claiming to have attacked; and Iran is not claiming to have been attacked. It is distinctly possible that this pinprick strike combined with denials on all sides will satisfy both parties and avert further retaliation. Conversely, it is also distinctly possible that it will lead to further cycles of revenge and escalation. To Order this Disorder, Jason is joined by our returning champion Arthur Snell and our great Scottish hopeful, Jane Kinninmont -- Policy & Impact Director at the European Leadership Network (an institution specializing in preventing nuclear war). The trio discuss: 1) why did Israel choose to retaliate, even though Biden counselled them to ‘Bank the Win’; 2) if this event even counts as retribution for the Iranian strikes of 14 April or could be classified as a non-strike as it is below the threshold of certain previous Israeli actions inside Iran; and 3) how Iran’s and Israel’s Sunni Arab neighbors are responding. Mulling over this unique historical moment, the trio use the Ordering the Disorder segment to propose opportunities for sage diplomacy to prevail and de-escalate tensions. Of course, the mere existence of these win-win, mutually beneficial, off-ramps from further conflict, does not mean that the Iranians or Israelis will seizes these opportunities. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: James Hodgson Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For a quick overview of April 19th’s events: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/israel-carries-out-strikes-isfahan-iran-reports?mc_cid=a8bfe16bdf&mc_eid=b844138f36 For Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/out-of-the-shadow-war-iranian-narratives-of-the-confrontation-with-israel/ For Arthur Snell’s Substack, ‘Not All Doom’: https://arthursnell.substack.com/ And for his podcast ‘Behind the Lines’: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344
S1 E34 · Thu, April 18, 2024
Ep34. The Battle for Taiwan
Taiwan is not only the epicentre of the world’s semi-conductor industry and a vibrant democracy. It is arguably the most important square on the chessboard of East Asian geopolitics. And the Taiwanese have watched very carefully how China has absorbed Hong Kong. The ‘one country, two systems’ mantra was a total failure. China is not planning a peaceful union with Taiwan. China is building its military at a rate not seen since World War II. The Chinese explain their military buildup by claiming a desire to reunify with (i.e. invade) Taiwan by 2027. Is this just posturing by China or is a great power battle over the island – i.e. between the US and China – actually approaching? To examine the state of play in China/Taiwan relations, Alex Hall Hall is joined by former Danish diplomat, Jonas Parello-Plesner. In his recent book – “The Battle for Taiwan” – Jonas explores what China is doing to shape the regional balance of power. In the discussion, Alex and Jonas discuss: the surrounding countries’ (Japan/South Korea/Philippines) role in deterring China, how seriously we should take Xi’s stated ambition of ‘assimilating’ Taiwan into China, and how should Taiwan and its friends in the West protect and prepare for such a likelihood. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Jonas Parello-Plesner’s book “The Battle for Taiwan” at https://www.amazon.co.uk/Battle-Taiwan-Jonas-Parello-Plesner/dp/B0CZRYS4RZ/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= For More on Taiwan’s recent election: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia/taiwan-presidential-election-results-intl-hnk/index.html Read Alex’s most recent Bylines Times article https://bylinetimes.com/2024/04/09/the-dilemma-facing-civil-servants-over-the-uks-arms-sales-to-israel/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E33 · Mon, April 15, 2024
Ep33. Iran attacks Israel: Start of the Wars of Gog and Magog or an opportunity for regional cooperation and de-escalation?
In the early morning hours of April 14th Iranian drones and missiles were launched towards Israel. The launch was framed as retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1st. Nearly 99% of the projectiles were intercepted. Although little physical or human damage was sustained, regional relations have been fundamentally recast: Sunni Arab states like Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia allowed the US, UK, and Israel to use their territory and intel assets to counter the threat. Israeli PM Netanyahu initially vowed a retaliatory strike, but Biden, Sunak and others are trying to dissuade him. To discuss the late breaking developments and relitigate their previous predictions, Jason is joined from Dubai by Disorder’s own Roving Correspondent, David Patrikarakos. The duo set the context of the strikes within the long durée context of decades of proxy conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic. They investigate how these events might spiral out of control to cause an apocalyptic War of Gog and Magog or how they could reconfigure regional alliances and allow for renewed Qatari/American/Egyptian mediation to find an off-ramp from the current conflict. They also investigate the current famine in Gaza and the lack of Israeli policy for long term governance solutions for the territory. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For an overview of the Iranian strikes and Israeli response: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/13/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news The Role of Biden: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/ Read David’s sage prediction in Unherd, ‘Iran is winning the Gaza war Tehran's violent strategy could soon escalate’: https://unherd.com/2024/04/iran-is-winning-the-gaza-war/ And Jason’s plea to blame Bibi and not the Jews: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/blame-netanyahu-for-gaza-not-the-jews/ Our Oct 12th episode: The 2023 Israeli-Hamas war: A Symptom of our era of Disorder?: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e48504038444024ddfb4d273932b9eec Learn more about your ad
Bonus · Thu, April 11, 2024
Bonus Episode: Oh Yeah-Woman: who is winning the narrative battle in Yemen, the Red Sea, and Gaza?
A decisively new kind of maritime terrorism has now emerged. Last weekend, two more British-linked ships were attacked in the Red Sea by Houthi pirates. This comes after the sinking of the Rubymar on March 2nd, which released 21,000 metric tons of ammonium, constituting a major ecological disaster . Jason is joined by Laura Cretney: a Yemen expert and founder of Pink Jinn, an online marketplace focused on supporting small businesses and communities affected by conflict in the MENA region. The pair provide a primer on how we got to here: Who are the Houthis and how did this ‘rag tag militia’ from the mountains end up with so much leverage over the global economy? They also unpick the implications of the Houthis: Are the attacks on global shipping actually changing the course of the conflict in Gaza? And what does the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the competing social media narratives emerging around it, tell us about the regional and global order (or lack thereof)? Lastly, the pair try to Order the Disorder by debating the role Diaspora communities in the US and UK can play in providing expertise and human networks to help improve Western policymaking towards the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Gaza, and throughout the MENA region. Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Hear our previous episode on Yemen here Background on the Dawning of a new age of eco-terrorism here To find out about the recent attacks on British shipping visit here Read about the impact on Israel here And the impact on the global economy here And why designating the Houthis as terrorist may backfire can be read here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E32 · Tue, April 09, 2024
Ep32. The Caribbean: Global Enduring Paradise or crossroads of the Global Enduring Disorder?
Beneath the Caribbean’s idyllic seafronts and sandy beaches lies a darker truth. Illicit money flows, corruption, and organised crime leave these small states hollowed out and open to state capture. In fact, the failure of Caribbean states to provide services to their populations and to generate income has led some of them to sell their sovereignty to their highest bidder. In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by Arthur Snell, host of the Behind the Lines podcast and former British High Commissioner to Trinidad and Tobago to discuss the multiplicity of interconnected roles Caribbean nations play within the Global Enduring Disorder. The pair discuss: Haiti’s recent gang uprising, the high homicide rates throughout the Caribbean, the historical role of the Caribbean as the first truly globalized region in human history, why former British colonies like the British Virgin Islands are increasingly turning to money laundering and drug trafficking, and how the legacy of the sugar trade has left societal scars in the region that are still felt to this day. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack here Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read the report, ‘Homicide and Organised Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean here Read more about Haiti here Discover more about Andrew Fahie’s drug case here Read ‘The Crime Conundrum in the Caribbean’ here Buy Arthur's, How Britain Broke the World here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus · Thu, April 04, 2024
Bonus Episode: Which country is more Disorderly – The UK or US?
In this bonus episode, Alex and Jason catch up after a long absence and chew the fat. They discuss the tradeoffs of life in the US vs UK delving into the Convenience vs Inspiration dichotomy. They try to decide who moved to the more chaotic place and where life is more livable and unpack thorny philosophical problems like have Britain’s public services become enshittified just as American tech platforms have? Plus, they discuss the Disorder of getting car insurance in the UK, the Conservative’s London Mayoral election campaign, and what a Trump election could mean for America’s foreign policy. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For the origins of Enshittification visit here Enshittification as word of the year here Read more of Alex’s writing at Byline Times And Jason’s at his website Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E31 · Tue, April 02, 2024
Ep31. Is India a neopopulist Disorderer or a potential Orderer?
India is arguably the world’s only rising great power. As the world’s largest democracy and soon to be third largest economy it is the globe’s most serious aspirant for becoming the 6th permanent member of the UN Security Council. Despite this economic and foreign policy heft, since independence in 1947, India has stridently resisted being aligned with any one particular geopolitical “camp”. It has always wanted to retain its “strategic autonomy” and to avoid being treated as a junior partner to any major superpower. Recently, India has hedged between Ukraine and Russia, btw the BRICS and America, and btw Israel and the Arab World. As a result, India has successfully maintained cordial ties with many of the world’s top powers, but has it done so as an Orderer or as a Disorderer? To discuss, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Indrani Bagchi – one of India’s most respected foreign policy journalists, a former Associate Editor for the Times of India, and currently Chief Executive Officer of the Ananta Centre. The duo discuss India’s approach to Russia, China, the UK, and the Israel-Gaza conflict. At the interview’s conclusion, while trying to Order the Disorder, an incensed Jason butts in with his strong personal hunch that India has much latent ordering potential but that Modi has deliberately squandered it in pursuit of his divisive and disordering neopopulist policies. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Find out more about India’s wealth income inequality from TIME here Read about Kejriwal’s arrest here For more on India’s election here Learn about how Modi’s Neo-Populist consolidation here More on the arrest of opposition politicians here And about the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <
S1 E30 · Tue, March 26, 2024
Ep30. Is there Order in the universe? Or are we all the playthings of chance?
Can we ever truly achieve Order in the international system? Or is life itself just a deterministic jumble of uncontrollable events? Do humans crave order so much that they perceive it even when it is absent – leading to conspiracy theories? And should policymakers avoid optimization and prediction and embrace experimentation, resilience, and slack to fix the problems of our era of Global Enduring Disorder? This week we celebrate the six-month anniversary of Disorder, by talking with a guest from our very first episode, the man who inspired this podcast, Brian Klaas. Brian’s page-turning new book ‘Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters’, is not only a dynamic read, it has much to say about whether our lives, our politics, and our relationships can ever be truly ordered. In the conversation, Brian and Jason agree disagreeably about the following issues: do most people believe that good things happen to good people, that one’s lot in life is somehow earned, and that ‘things happen for a reason’? Can some disorder be good in our personal lives? Is Order a spiritual rather than a rational virtue? Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Pick up Fluke by visiting - https://brianpklaas.com/fluke For more of Brian’s writing visit - https://www.forkingpaths.co/ Listen to a great audio overview of the book here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E29 · Tue, March 19, 2024
Ep29. Freedom in the world is measurably declining… what can we do?
Every year, Freedom House releases an annual ‘global democracy health check’. According to it, the world is getting sicker. In this year’s ‘Freedom in the World’ report -- which reviews the state of democracy, civil, and political rights in every country -- political and civil liberties have got worse in 52 countries, while in only 21 countries have they improved. What dynamics lie behind this trend? And what does it signify for the future? To find out, Alex is joined by the President of Freedom House, Mike Abramowitz. Prior to running Freedom House, Mike was a Senior Executive at the Holocaust Museum, and before that, he worked for 24 years at the Washington Post, as national editor, and then White House correspondent. He also has the distinction of being one of only a handful of ‘named’ American citizens singled out for special sanctions by the Chinese Government, imposed on him in 2020 as a response to his support for the Hong Kong Democracy movement. In the episode, Alex and Mike delve into the report in more detail, the threats facing elections around the world, the implications of the stifling of the free press, and what could be done to revive the recent decline in global freedom. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack here Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links To read Freedom House’s Freedom In The World Report here For more on Mike Abramowitz visit Freedom House His article in TIME, ‘How Authoritarian Regimes Go After Journalists Beyond Their Borders’ can be read here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E28 · Tue, March 12, 2024
Ep28. The Rematch of the Disorderer-in-Chief vs Joseph Robinette Status-Quo Jr.
In this year of monumental elections, there is none which looms larger than the grandaddy of them all: the 2024 US Presidential Elections. With the US Primary season all but over, the match up appears set between the “disorderer-in-chief” Donald Trump and Joe Biden. But in the wake of Super Tuesday is that match up really set? Or might an open convention scenerio emerge leading to last minute switch up? And what are the global implications for a long and protracted race between two candidates with vastly different approaches to America’s place in the world and fostering global order? And what are the implications of two wildly unpopular candidates running for President with each seeking to present themselves as the least bad option? To answer these questions and more, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Rick Davis. Rick was a senior political consultant on multiple presidential campaigns, including for George H W Bush and for Bob Dole. He also served as Senator John McCain’s national campaign manager in 2000 and 2008. He is currently a partner at Stone Court Capital, a private equity investor located in New York City. Alex and he discuss his time managing John McCain’s campaign, how Trump has conducted a hostile takeover of the Republican Party, and how we can understand the demographic shifts that have remade the face of the Republican party over the last two decades. As they Order the Disorder, Alex and Jason discuss the prevalent double standards which are used when analyzing Biden’s record on the economy, Gaza, and Ukraine, how Congress could proactively prevent some of the potentially disordering impacts of a future potential Trump presidency, and looking forward to 2028, how a whole new class of political leaders appears bound to emerge. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Rick’s bio here For more on Rick Davis’s career head here Read more on Davis and Lobbying here Further background on Super Tuesday and Nikki Haley’s Departure from the Republican Primary here On Super Tuesday and Dean Phillips Departure from the Democratic Primary here Learn more about your a
S1 E27 · Tue, March 05, 2024
Ep27. Can we Order the entire cosmos – along with our alien friends?
When it comes to working together to face external challenges, no challenge could be greater than extraterrestrial life… and this seemingly abstract problem could be more pressing than you think. In 2023, Air Force Colonel David Grusch spoke before Congress to present his firsthand evidence of alien spacecraft remains and non-human ‘biologics’. In his testimony, he claimed that parts of the United States Government and defense contractors were hiding these facts from disclosure to Congress. So, in response, the Senate unanimously passed what is known as the ‘UAP Disclosure Act’ -- legislation which would compel defense contractors and the CIA to disclose all information to Congress and then mandate a structured disclosure of parts of this sensitive information to the public. The parts of this act which grant Congress enforcement power are being held up by a handful of Congressmen in the House. But do Colonel Grush’s claims hold any weight? And if they did, would global powers successfully co-ordinate on issues pertaining to extraterrestrial life? And why aren’t parts of the US Government sharing information with other parts of USG? To answer those questions and more, Jason Pack is joined by Daniel Sheehan. Daniel is the head of the New Paradigm Institute. A Harvard educated civil rights lawyer who has worked on many high profile cases like Watergate, Daniel tells Jason about his discussions with Gorbachev about UAPs, why he believes information about UAPs is being withheld, and why he thinks releasing this ‘information’ to the world is the right thing to do. Meanwhile, Alex and Jason discuss: why Daniel’s argument of a ‘shadow government’ feels unlikely, their own experience of times when governments don’t share information coherently between departments, and whether Colonel Grusch feels like a credible whistleblower. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links US Congress passes stripped-down measure to release UFO records: link UAP disclosure bill revised; two key provisions stripped, read here About the New Paradigm Institute: https://newparadigminstitute.org/ For more Sheehan’s advocacy head <a href="https://www.liberationtimes.com/home/daniel-sheehan-exposes-five-powerful-republicans-blocking-ufo-disclosu
S1 E26 · Tue, February 27, 2024
Ep26. Was Alexei Navalny a Martyr for Democracy?
In the days following Navalny’s murder, Western leaders have made all too predictable speeches and issued all too predictable condemnations. But as of yet, very little concrete action has been taken to respond to the murder of Russia’s most prominent opposition politician. The West talks the talk, but has yet to walk the walk. How should Biden, Sunak and Ursula Van Der Leyen hit Putin where it actually hurts and genuinely punish him for his actions? In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack sits down with successful investor, globally acclaimed author, and famous philanthropist/humanitarian advocate, Bill Browder. A close friend of Navalny, Browder talks of his emotions at hearing of his ally’s death, how ‘demoralizing’ the news is for ordinary people opposing Putin’s regime, and what the West can now do to turn their words of condemnation and outrage into concrete actions. Bill recalls that when he first went to Russia in the 1990s, a chaotic and poorly-organized mafia gradually spread throughout the country. Then, it spread its tentacles throughout the world. And we in the West essentially let this happen. And now Navalny has died bearing further witness to the extent of corruption, indecency, and thuggery in Russia. We must not stand idly by. Browder’s interview concludes with a passionate plea to Western governments – especially the United Kingdom – to work together to confiscate Russian cash reserves and free other imprisoned opposition leaders. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Jason’s article in USAToday about Navalny's messianism, its historical antecedents, and what the West should do to honour his memory and punish Putin. Read here Read Bill Browder’s bio here Read Browder’s ‘Freezing Order’ here ‘How Bill Browder Became Russia’s Most Wanted Man’ by the New Yorker can be found here From the Guardian, ‘More deaths are coming’: fears over fate of other Russian political prisoners after Navalny’s death’ can be read here Learn more about
Bonus · Thu, February 22, 2024
Bonus Episode: How should the West respond to Navalny’s murder: Can the Munich Security Conference help order that response?
Wars are raging in Ukraine and the Middle East. Russia’s most famous opposition politician (Alexei Navalany) has just been murdered. Meanwhile, the international institutions set up after World War 2 to uphold peace and security no longer seem fit for purpose. Into this space comes the annual Munich Security Forum. Its flagship event, which took place last weekend, is its gathering of hundreds of the world’s top security experts and decision makers in Munich each year, to debate – and hopefully come up with solutions for - the world’s most pressing security concerns. Last year, despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, the conference took place in relatively optimistic circumstances: the Ukrainians were putting up a plucky defence, while the euro-atlantic alliance seemed to have found new purpose. This year is a different story. Russia has just taken the city of Avdiivka, while international support for Ukraine is wavering. And on the very opening day of the conference, the shocking news broke that Russia’s most prominent opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, had died in prison. So what was the mood like at this year’s conference, and how should the euro-atlantic community respond to these challenges? To answer those questions, Alex Hall Hall was joined by Nico Lange – a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference and a former Chief of Staff at the German Ministry of Defence. In this episode the pair discuss: what were the main takeaways from the conference, the need for European powers to step up their aid to Ukraine, and why expanding the EU and NATO is vital for international security. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Nico Lange’s article ‘In a critical situation for Ukraine, it is down to the Europeans’ here And for an overview of many issues relating to Navalny’s death and Western and Russian politicians reactions to it here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E25 · Tue, February 20, 2024
Ep25. Could Artificial Intelligence-powered disinformation campaigns cause electoral mayhem?
In late January 2024, New Hampshire residents received a strange phone call. The voice of Joe Biden was telling them not to vote in the Democratic Primaries. But it wasn’t actually the President on the line… It was a deep faked robot. This was part of an unlawful attempt to disrupt the New Hampshire Presidential Primary Election. That disinformation campaign was created by easily accessible technology. Over the next months, more sophisticated attempts are almost bound to emerge seeking to disrupt the November US Presidential Elections… so what can be done to prevent AI-empowered voter suppression and help protect democracy against these very real threats? To find out, Alex Hall Hall speaks to Miles Taylor. Miles was the Chief of Staff in the Department of Homeland Security under the Trump Administration. It was later revealed that he was the author of the famous ‘Anonymous’ essay in the New York Times entitled, ‘I am part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration’. He most recently wrote an NYT bestseller ‘Blowback’. Taylor is now the co-founder of the US Futures Policy Studio in Washington; an organisation which is looking to help policymakers better understand deep fake technology. In his discussion with Alex, he talks about his reasons for leaving the Trump Administration; the unbridled vengeance he faced as a consequence of speaking out against a Neo-Populist; and his current work bringing attention to one of the most profound threats currently facing democracies: Artificial Intelligence. To close the show, Jason and Alex ‘Order the Disorder’ by discussing the need for fast-moving regulation around AI, why a lengthening of ‘power distance’ in American society is an indication that our democratic institutions and culture aren’t work properly anymore, and why a public information campaign ridiculing AI deep fakes could help to prepare society for these disruptive technologies. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read the famous ‘Anonymous’ essay in the NYT here Read why Miles unmasked himself here Read Alex’s article ‘Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Dilemma of a Conflicted Civil Servant’ in the Texas National Security Review here Get Blowback: A Warning to Save Democracy from the Next Trump
Bonus · Thu, February 15, 2024
Bonus Episode: What has sixty years on planet earth taught Alex? Plus, listener questions.
As Alex turns 60, she and Jason look back at how the world has changed since she first decided to enter the diplomatic service. Meanwhile, Jason explains how his ‘lived experiences’ across the Middle East have shaped the way he views American foreign policy. The Boomer vs Gen X dynamics are laid bared for all to see. Then the duo answer listener questions: namely, what UK/US support for Israel should look like, why some countries are less corrupt than others and what role Western powers should play in post-conflict zones. Finally, as they Order the Disorder, Alex and Jason talk about the need to be courageous in trying to bring interim governance to post-War Gaza, and the importance of maintaining moral clarity. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack here Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E24 · Tue, February 13, 2024
Ep24. What does South Africa stand to gain from accusing Israel of Genocide in Gaza?
Much ink has been spilled about the legal definition of the crime of Genocide and if Israel has committed it in Gaza or if Hamas committed it on October 7th. In this pod, we are not examining those legal or moral issues. Adopting a non-legal, and non-humanitarian frame of mind, we are going to examine what are the underlying geopolitical, historical, and diplomatic reasons for South Africa bringing a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ)? In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack speaks to Sasha Polakow-Suransky -- deputy editor of Foreign Policy and author of ‘The Unspoken Alliance: Israel's Secret Relationship with Apartheid South Africa’. The duo turn the telescope around and look squarely at South Africa, rather than looking at Israel or the Palestinians. They discuss the global implications of the ICJ case for South Africa and how it fits in the country’s decades long whiplash romances first with Israel then with the Palestinians, how South Africans see their role in the world, and whether South Africa’s actions and media campaign will further intrench ideas in the Global South that America’s stance on Israel’s actions in Gaza is grounded in hypocrisy. Then in our Ordering the Disorder segment, we debate is South Africa proposing an alternative order to the American-led international system or merely an alternative disorder? Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack here Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read: ‘What South Africa Really Won at the ICJ’ by Sasha here Read: ‘The Year Geopolitical Competition Returned to Africa’ by Sasha here Listen to Today, Explained episode, ‘Israel at the International Court of Justice’ here Read the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide here Get Sasha’s book The Unspoken Alliance: Israel's Secret Relationship with Apartheid South Africa here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E23 · Tue, February 06, 2024
Ep23. Is the democratic world morally responsible for allowing Putin's rise? With Evgenia Kara-Murza
In April 2022, undeterred by his previous two poisonings, Russian opposition politician, historian, and free speech advocate Vladimir Kara-Murza made the incredibly courageous decision to re-enter Russia – despite his known opposition to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine two months earlier. What happened next was as tragic as it was predictable. A year later Vladimir was sentenced to 25 years in prison. Last Monday, he disappeared from the Siberian penal colony where he was being held, only much later re-emerging in solitary confinement in a different prison. In this episode of Disorder, we speak to Evgenia Kara-Murza, a Russian human rights activist and Vladimir’s wife. Evgenia shares about her upbringing in Russia’s Far East, how her husband was imprisoned while working to improve the country, and how what is happening within Russia “hurts” her deeply. She also unpacks how Western leaders bear significant responsibility for the direction taken by the regime of Vladimir Putin – to her mind choosing cowardice and to make money over the safeguarding of human rights. Evgenia finishes the interview talking about how already democratic countries need to stay alert and safeguard their rights and freedoms. To her, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shown: democracy is under threat – globally. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack here Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Evgenia’s interview for Time here Watch Vladimir’s documentary here A profile on Vladimir by Meduza here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus · Thu, February 01, 2024
Bonus Episode: Can the Two Matts Help Us Order the Disorder?
We wanted to let you all in on a well guarded secret: there are actually other podcasts out there that try to Order the Disorder. The team behind the New European magazine produce a podcast called ‘The Two Matts’. We were really inspired by their recent treatment of how Germany is dealing with its neopopulism problem. In this bonus episode of Disorder, we present an excerpt from The Two Matts Jan 26th Show ‘Germany Fighting Fascism’ where Matt and Matt talk about the massive street protests against the AfD and the unique constitutional ways in which Germany can fight the rise of neopopulism. Show Notes Links Listen to the Two Matts here Read Jason Pack’s recent article in The New European about how Bibi is just a run of the mill neopopulist here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E22 · Tue, January 30, 2024
Ep22. What are Iran’s and Egypt’s roles in the evolving Middle East crisis?
This week we examine the regional roles played by Egypt and Iran and discuss British diplomacy towards those countries over the last decade or so. Iran and Egypt offer a fascinating study in contrasts – in terms of their dealings with Israel and Hamas, as well as their posturing relative to the outside world. So who better to help us understand these countries regional role than Alex’s former boss, Sir Geoffrey Adams, who served as British Ambassador both to Iran (2006-9) and to Egypt (2018-21). He served also as Consul General in Jerusalem, the representative to the Palestinian Authority; as Foreign Office Director for the Middle East, and as DG Political – the chief political advisor in the Foreign Office. He is now an honorary lecturer at the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews. Sir Geoffrey relates his experiences of how diplomacy ‘feels’ in Tehran and Cairo and explains why medium powers like Egypt and Iran cannot be dictated to by disunited Western powers. Alex and Jason try to Order the Disorder by discussing Iran’s role as a disordering power, Egypt’s role as a mediating one, and why the medium powers in the region need to step up. Twitter: @DisorderShow Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/disorderpod/ Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Sir Geoffrey’s FCDO bio is available here His ‘Reflections on the Arab Spring Ten Years On’ can be accessed here For more on the role of Iran as Disorderer please consult Ali Ansari in Ep4 here For more on the regional role of Egypt and why Gaza is existential for Egypt according to Nathan Brown: pls consult in Ep16. The Struggle for Leadership of the Islamic World here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E21 · Tue, January 23, 2024
Ep21. Is the EU a trade giant, but a political dwarf?
In this episode, Jason Pack and Alexandra Hall Hall open with their thoughts on the EU’s strengths and weaknesses – concluding that the old adage, ‘The EU is an economic colossus and a political pygmy’, is not too far off. To investigate how the EU leverages its trade clout, Alex interviews John Clarke – a British national who worked for more than 30 years as a trade negotiator for the EU. John tells us the tricks of the trade: how the US would steal trade dossiers during negotiations, how the psychology of negotiations works, and how the devil is in the details of free trade agreements. He also describes how the EU’s trade treaties are like the different reciprocal drinking arrangements down at the pub. And of course, John gives Alex an insider’s perspective of ‘what went wrong’ over Brexit. In Ordering the Disorder, Jason and Alex discuss the lack of specific training that US and UK Ambassadors receive about negotiations, how the EU must navigate a fine line between the US and China, and how the rise of Neo-Populism in Europe could spell the end to EU’s trade negotiating prowess. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For more visit here Read more about Europe’s Trade Ambitions here For more on the EU’s recent New Zealand trade deal visit here Find more on the tensions at play within EU read "Poland opposes extension of EU trade preferences for Ukraine” here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus · Thu, January 18, 2024
Bonus Episode: Oh Yeah, Man, why are the Houthis disordering global shipping in the Red Sea?
As the Houthis attack ships in the Red Sea, Arthur Snell and Jason explore: 1) How this horrible crisis is actually an opportunity to create a coalition of orderers; 2) how Iran is not really able to use the Houthis as a proxy; 3) how one interpretation of the Houthi actions is as ‘global disordering’ rather than specifically supporting the Palestinians or a given outcome in Gaza; and 4) how there is an opportunity for a uniquely constructive role for Britain, drawing on its credibility and experience in protecting global shipping especially in a context where China refuses to engage. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links A good intro to Yemeni history from Time’s ‘Made by History’ can be found here . What the US is doing here What the UK is doing by Elisabeth Braw here And what some think the US and UK should be doing here Context around Anti-Semitism in Yemen here Role of Saudi here Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast, Behind the Lines here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E20 · Tue, January 16, 2024
Ep20. Corruption in Plain Sight
In this episode, Jason Pack and Alexandra Hall Hall disentangle the related concepts of corruption, illegality, embezzlement, and bribery. They discuss what happens when the laws of a given country allow legalized versions of ‘corruption in plain sight’ to flourish. They’ll look at two different case studies of this phenomenon: Britain and Libya. First, Alex talks to journalist and author Sam Bright about the unique type of ‘pay for access’ corruption that has infiltrated the British establishment. They’ll analyse how wealthy donors can buy meetings with senior officials within the Conservative Party, the implications of the UK’s failed Golden Visa Programme and how it has allowed oligarchs to embed themselves into the UK’s political and economic life, and how the British media’s cosy relationships with cabinet ministers leads to a lack of accountability and transparency. Later in the episode, Jason talks to Husni Bey Husni, Libya’s most famous and successful entrepreneur and businessman. They’ll unpack how subsidies in Libya encourage corruption and pervert incentive structures and international markets. They dwell on the policy implications of these perversions and Husni argues that a libertarian approach is his personal solution to help Order the Disorder. Finally, Jason and Alex discuss how to deter corruption in British politics, how the Libyans have perfected the Miss Manner’s Guide to Rigorously Correct Kleptocracy works, how the libertarian approach might (and might not) work, how regulations and cultural norms are needed, and how removing perverse incentive structures is essential as humans will always do whatever benefits them if they can get away with it. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Sam Bright’s books Fortress London: The definitive book about Levelling Up and why it matters here And Bullingdon Club Britain: The Ransacking of a Nation here Get Jason's book Libya and The Global Enduring Disorder here (And read about the Miss Manner’s Guide to Rigorously Correct Kleptocracy in Chapter 4) Read more about Kleptocracy here Read more about Husni here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://podcastchoices.c
S1 E19 · Tue, January 09, 2024
Ep19. Water Wars – myth or reality?
In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by Arthur Snell, and they speak to Professor Naho Mirumachi. Naho is a specialist on the politics of the environment. She is particularly interested in ‘the wars that were not fought’ over water usage. The trio discuss: what lessons can be learnt from international governance of water usage and other related collective action challenges, will there actually be ‘Water Wars’ in the future, and the challenges of international coordination over the usage of water. Expanding outwards from historical and contemporary examples of water conflict and water sharing in the Nile Basin and Mekong Delta, the hosts ask Naho: given climate change and aridification, will there be enough fresh water to sustain a world population of 10 billion humans for the long term future? In the Ordering the Disorder segment, the trio conclude that major states just tend not to fight over water. Or at least they haven’t as of yet. In fact, water diplomacy has been surprisingly successful over the past few decades and may point to certain lessons concerning how to incentivize optimal compromises in other fields like tax, security, or borders. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Naho’s book Water: A Critical Introduction (Wiley) here Read NAHO’s writing at Valuing water: a difficult but crucial step towards greater water justice here Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast, Behind the Lines, here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E18 · Tue, January 02, 2024
Ep18. Can the non-West Order the Disorder? BRICs and the future of global institutions
On the 1st of January 2024, BRICS (an international forum of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), are welcoming in new members to form BRICS+. In this episode, Alex Hall Hall talks with Anjali Bhatt about what the bloc aims to achieve and what the addition of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the UAE might entail for the organization. They’ll also discuss Argentina’s new disruptive leader, why he might withdraw from BRICS+, and whether the expansion could mean the strengthening of disordering powers (like China). In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jason and Alex discuss whether the West should take BRICS+ seriously as a global force, what some of their ideas might mean for global economics, and whether the institution of BRICS+ will function more as an ordering force or more as a disordering one. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links No One Knows What BRICS Expansion Means by Anjali Bhatt here And for a broader overview of BRICS, its history, and role in the world, pls consult here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E17 · Sun, December 24, 2023
Ep17. What novel disorder lies ahead in 2024? And how do we bring the holiday spirit into diplomacy?
In our Christmas special, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall look back at the first year of the disorder pod, and forecast a bit about the next. They discuss 2024 as a record-breaking year of global elections, answer some listeners’ questions about topics like Central Asia, Gaza, Western hypocrisy, and Palestinian History. They also share a bit about themselves, their families’ holiday menus, and their escape routes. Like, who knew that Alex likes doing puzzles so much and that Jason is a super fan of the Netflix show Fauda. During the Ordering the Disorder Segment, they discuss why we urgently need to get the Christmas spirit back into diplomacy. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links At the start and end of the podcast, we heard some lovely Xmas music from Evoke, a London-based vocal ensemble founded and directed by Victoria Ely. Full credits: Pat-a-pan: traditional Burgundian carol, arranged by David Conte. Jingle Bells: arranged by Audrey Snyder Music performed by Evoke, directed by Victoria Ely Facebook: www.facebook.com/evokemusicuk Youtube: www.youtube.com/@evoke1439 Website: www.evokemusic.org/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E16 · Tue, December 19, 2023
Ep16. The Struggle for Leadership of the Islamic World
In this episode, Alex and Jason investigate if major Islamic nations can exercise global leadership over the Israel-Palestine conflict and propose implementable solutions. They also examine the leverage that Arab Gulf States now have over the West, in general, and Britian, in specific. Jason talks to James M. Dorsey, host of the Turbulent World podcast, to investigate three of the principal countries battling simultaneously for leadership of the Islamic World and to set the direction of ‘moderate’ Islam in the 21st century: the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia. Zooming in on how these dynamics bear upon the diplomacy surrounding the Gaza conflict, Jason speaks with Nathan Brown; a keen observer of Palestinian politics over the last six decades. They explore how the Palestinian question has traditionally been connected to both struggles over Muslim identity and leadership of the Islamic world. They analyse how the current struggle for Islamic Leadership could actually provide opportunities to forge solutions to the Israel-Gaza conflict. At the end of the show, Jason and Alex return to the question of what it means that the UK has become ever more reliant on money from the Gulf States, and whether that’s taken away any leverage the West may have over these countries in the current conflict. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/struggle-for-global-leadership Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Listen to James M. Dorsey’s podcast, The Turbulent World here Nathan’s first gloomy premonition, “There Might Be No Day After in Gaza here And his “Arab Peace Initiative II: How Arab Leadership Could Design a Peace Plan in Israel and Palestine” here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E15 · Tue, December 12, 2023
Ep15. NATO: an alliance for the future? With Kurt Volker
In this week’s episode, Jason and Alex are joined by Kurt Volker, former US Ambassador to NATO and former US’s Special Representative to Ukraine. The wide-ranging discussion tries to unpick NATO’s role in our increasingly disordered world. They also examine what makes NATO successful where the UN and other international organizations falter. They discuss both the 2023 NATO summit in Lithuania and the 2023 Tbilisi International Conference, entitled “Defeating Putinism.” They also look forward to next year’s supremely important NATO summit in Washington with bated breath. That moment not only marks 75 years since NATO’s creation, but it ‘should be’ the moment that NATO offers Ukraine concrete steps to membership. Plus: they look at the late Senator John McCain’s legacy and the US’s role in NATO, as the momentous 2024 election approaches. Alex and Jason Order the Disorder by postulating why Ukraine needs to join NATO as soon as possible – even if the war with Russia is still ongoing. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/nato-and-adversaries Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Previous episode on NATO here Read Kurt Volker’s NATO assessments here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus · Thu, December 07, 2023
Bonus Episode: The moral and military dynamics at play in Ukraine and Gaza with David Patrikarakos
In this bonus episode, Jason discusses his mom’s Thanksgiving stuffing recipe as he is joined by our roving correspondent – David Patrikarakos – who missed Turkey Day in London choosing to go to Ukraine and Gaza instead. The pair ‘drone’ on about the use of Iranian Shahid drones in both conflicts, the similarities and differences in the moral and military calculus in Ukraine as opposed to Gaza, and how today’s easy access to technology means traditionally lesser military powers can achieve a modicum of leveling up with their more 1st world opponents. The pair also try to step away from the current news cycle to debunk some historical misconceptions about both conflicts. In the Ordering the Disorder segment, the discuss the role of historical narratives and mythmaking, the West’s need to hold the line in the Ukraine, and why there are no easy solutions for the day after the War in Gaza. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links More on David’s recent trip to Ukraine here And his thoughts on the chances of a regional Middle Eastern escalation here And back to Jason’s solutions, ‘The Road to Middle East Peace Runs Through Doha’ here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E14 · Tue, December 05, 2023
Ep14. Is Disinformation Destroying Democracy?
Disinformation and culture wars are an existential problem for democracies. They foster negative feedback loops: whereby internal divisions inside democracies make us more vulnerable to hostile external actors spewing misinformation, who then exploit those divisions to create more vulnerability to misinformation, culminating in culture wars. These kind of negative feedback loops are another symptom of our era of Global Enduring Disorder. In this week’s episode, Alex and Jason are joined by Laura Thornton, Senior Vice President for democracy at GMF. They discuss how social media algorithms promote disinformation, culture wars, and a rise in contempt for experts. In the Ordering the Disorder section, they’ll talk about the fight for neutral facts and how we could rethink our electoral systems to strengthen our democracies in the UK and US. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/unregulated-cyberspace Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Brian Klaas’ article on Trump and Mark Milley here For more on Laura Thornton’s work visit here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E13 · Tue, November 28, 2023
Ep13. It’s getting hot in here
Climate change is the perfect example of what happens on a pressing global challenge when no one leads, or even takes responsibility, for a collective action problem – nothing happens, the crisis builds until it becomes seemingly unmanageable/unfixable. Without strong collective action and tough compromises, climate change will get more and more geopolitically intractable making life saving compromises even harder. In this episode, Fiona Harvey explores the importance coordination mechanisms such as COP summits, while Arthur Snell explores the vulnerability of developing island states, the potential next climate great battleground -- the Arctic -- and the role medium powers such as the UK could play in coordinating climate policy. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/nato-and-adversaries Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For more from Fiona Harvey, visit here Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast, Behind The Lines, here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus · Thu, November 23, 2023
Bonus Episode: NATO, Europe, China, and the Israel-Hamas War
In a special Thanksgiving bonus episode of the podcast, Jason is joined by Alessandro Politi, the Director of the NATO Defense College Foundation in Rome. They discuss: Alessandro’s Axis lineage, what role if any NATO has in the Middle East, what Europe’s unique role should be in the Israel-Hamas war (potentially as a counterbalance to America), how global affairs look from Taiwan (where Alessandro just was), and whether the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Gaza Wars might act as a detonator for larger US and China tensions. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/nato-and-adversaries Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Alessandro’s writing on China here More on the NATO Defense College Foundation can be found here Listen to Jason appearing alongside Gershon Baskin discussing hostage negotiations and scenarios for Post-War Gaza here For more on what Europe is proposing in the Middle East, read ‘Germany suggests UN take control in Gaza after Israel-Hamas war ends’ here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E12 · Tue, November 21, 2023
Ep12. Neo-Populism in the US with Tom Malinowski
In this week’s episode, Alex and Jason are joined by former US congressman Tom Malinowski (D-NJ). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Malinowski. In addition to talking about why Tom ziplined to his wedding, they discuss: how to end the war in Ukraine, smear campaigns in American elections, Russian misinformation, why democracy seems to be on the back foot globally, how American and British Neo-populism is connected to the rise of authoritarianism abroad, and why the US and UK experience so many structural inefficiencies when building railroads and highways. Twitter: @DisorderShow Read Tom’s thoughts about how to end the war in Ukraine, here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/18/how-to-end-ukraine-war-00111752 Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For more on Tom, visit https://twitter.com/Malinowski Subscribe to the Disorder Show Monthly Newsletter here Read Jason’s recent writing, ‘The Road to Middle East Peace Runs Through Doha’ here For all who are interested in 'the definitive' reading of how The Global Enduring Disorder (including the divisiveness and ineffectiveness of Neopopulism) caused the war in Gaza listen to Yuval Noah Harari on Sam Harris’s Making Sense here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E11 · Tue, November 14, 2023
Ep11. The Psychology of Chaos
Diplomacy is a game, and geopolitics is a psychological sport. Though we may root for the ‘democratic good guys’, it is often the disordering ‘autocratic bad guys’ that achieve their aims through effective use of psychological tactics like bluffing and intimidation. In this episode, we meet Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair’s former Chief of Staff, who helped negotiate landmark treaties like the Good Friday Agreement. He tells us how our leaders could use various skills to get to mutually beneficial agreements. We’ll also meet Kenneth Dekleva, a former US diplomat and a Professor of Psychiatry, who will present certain ways we can psychologically outfox disorderers like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/nato-and-adversaries Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Jonathan Powell’s Majestic work on the Negotiations in Northern Ireland is here Get Kenneth Dekleva’s latest books. The Last Violinist here Read a recent article by Kenneth here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E10 · Tue, November 07, 2023
Ep10. How international actors can stabilize the ongoing Israel-Hamas War and prevent a regional escalation
In this episode, Alex Hall Hall talks to Tom Fletcher, the former British Ambassador to Lebanon. Tom and Alex discuss the Palestinian refugee and surrounding Arab states narratives as an entry point to examine whether there’s any risk of the war spreading. They delve deeper into: the rationale for humanitarian de-escalation, the interests and motives of players like Lebanon, Hezbollah and Iran, and what international actors like the UK, the US and the UN need to be doing to stabilize the situation, and how they can be working towards longer term solutions. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Tom Fletcher’s writing around this issue at here You can listen to Jason’s take on the regional context on the PREVAIL podcast here You can read current Alex’s writing around this issue here Read, As dark as things seem, the war in Gaza could end up restarting the peace process here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E9 · Mon, October 30, 2023
Ep9. The 2023 Israeli - Hamas war: Could the Qataris help us order the disorder
As the Israeli-Hamas war enters a new phase, Alex and Jason discuss how hard it is to speak publicly and diplomatically about an issue that’s become so partisan and so emotive. Plus: the pair talk about Jason’s idea for interim post-war governance of Gaza involving a Qatari-Saudi-Egyptian-Emirati condominium which would need to be mediated by American and British diplomats. Although only a medium-term solution, Jason believes it could give key regional players a stake in forging peace in the region. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Jason’s Article, “Qatar is the key to peace in postwar Gaza” here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E8 · Tue, October 24, 2023
Ep8. Rules for the Ungoverned
Across the world, there are vast swathes of the planet (especially our oceans and atmosphere) that have been left without governance, and into that space have stepped terrorist groups, disordering non-state actors, drug cartels, and polluting and exploitative corporations. So how can global institutions help bring a semblance of order back to these places ? In this episode, Sam Quinones will help us look at how rogue actors have helped to perpetuate disorder across the world – for example, in Mexico where drug cartels turn the absence of governance into proift. Harold A. Trinkunas talks to us about how ungoverned spaces in Venezula and other failed States came to be and what their existence says about our era of disorder. In the conclusion, Alex and Jason ‘Order the Disorder’ propose how communities and interested institution can mitigate the disordering impact of spaces that are without global governance. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/nato-and-adversaries Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Get Harold’s co-authored book, Ungoverned Spaces: Alternatives to state authority in an era of softened sovereignty here For more on Sam Quinones, visit here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E7 · Tue, October 17, 2023
Ep7. Dirty money is everywhere, as Wall St and St Petersburg are on the same page
From London to Miami, illicit cash has been flowing through the West’s financial systems. Coordination failures have allowed disruptors like Russia to prop up a transnational kleptocracy – while groups like the UN, IMF and NATO are ill-equipped to deal with this problem, especially as key players in Britain and America, actively encourage the financial deregulation on which the kleptocrats thrive. In this episode we look at the origins of globalized finance and how illicit money flows cause global disorder by empowering thieves and increasing inequality, and what can be done to stop the spread of dirty cash. Peter Geoghegan explains how illicit money influences British politics. Tena Prelec examines the role of Eastern Europe and sketches how the answer out of our current mess is to advocate for radical transparency. In the Ordering the Disorder segment we showcase why we should focus on ordering our own house first rather than focusing on the sins of our systemic competitors. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/nato-and-adversaries Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For more on Peter Geoghegan is here For more on Tena Prelec, visit here More on this kleptocracy and tax havens can be found here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus · Thu, October 12, 2023
Bonus Episode: The 2023 Israeli-Hamas war: A Symptom of our era of Disorder?
On Saturday October the 7th the world awoke to the most horrific, chaotic, and game changing Arab-Israeli war in 50 years. But despite how tragic the news was, it wasn’t at all surprising. Internal divisions and partisan dysfunction inside previously functioning democracies (like Israel) have left previously secure and united societies, divided and open to their enemies. This has been an open invitation to those who wish to actively disorder global affairs. In this bonus episode, Jason Pack and David Patrikarakos discuss how, in our era of disorder, conflicts in one part of the world create immediate disordering reactions elsewhere. They’ll also talk about David’s time in Gaza, Jason’s conversations with anti-Semitic cab drivers in Lebanon and the West Bank, and how the internet radicalizes reporting on this conflict. Jason and David disagree agreeably about whether Hamas has already won this war. Finally, they’ll try to suggest ways out of this conflict, as they try to Order the Disorder. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Subscribe to the Disorder Show Monthly Newsletter here For depth on the historical context of the War: listen to Jason on Arthur Snell’s Behind the Lines here Brett Stevens NYT Op-ed on potential solutions here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E6 · Tue, October 10, 2023
Ep6. NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder?
Nation states no longer work effectively in tandem. Gone are the days of hegemonic US power directly ordering the allies. Furthermore, groups like the UN are ineffective, with disruptors often calling the shots. However, NATO stands apart as an example of how countries can work together successfully and how a global institution can remain largely uncontroversial, while doing serious coordinating work to solve real world problems. In this episode our hosts and guests relate their perspectives about what NATO stands for, its strengths and limitations, and the threats it faces. Former NATO Deputy Sec General, Jamie Shea tells about how the organisation worked in the Balkans and Afghanistan, while Kori Schake mulls over the role of the US as NATO’s hegemonic leader. Timothy Garton Ash comments on distinctions between NATO and the EU especially as pertains to values like liberty. Finally, Charles Kupchan examines why Russia chooses to actively disorder. Charles and Jason disagree agreeable on China’s role as an orderer vs. disorderer. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/nato-and-adversaries Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For more on Kori Schake, visit here For more on Jamie Shea, visit here Get Timothy Garton Ash’s book, Homelands here For more on Charles Kupchan, visit here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E5 · Tue, October 03, 2023
Ep5. Migration, climate, and our era of disorder
Migration has become one of the most emotive political topics. Fears surrounding the topic are essential to the rise of Neo-Populism. All the while, migration is increasing; over the past decade over 50 million more people have been moving internationally than in previous decades. So how does migration work (or not work) in our era of global disorder? What problems does it solve and what problems does it create? Can disordered migration be curbed and the benefits of ‘orderly’ migration achieved in a more regulated manner? Or do we have a humanitarian imperative to preserve even disorderly migration? In this episode, Parag Khanna discusses how creating a transparent and fair global market for migrants could help optimize the economics behind migration. Lawrence Huang analyses how the current global management of migration operates and why the way Neo-Populists constant diatribes about ‘uncontrolled migration’ are harming any real attempts to order the space. In the ‘Ordering the Disorder’ segment, Alex and Jason debate what international coordination mechanisms are needed to deal with mass migration and whether coherent collective action could ever emerge to forge implementable solutions. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/climate-change-geopolitics Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Link Subscribe to the Disorder Show Monthly Newsletter here Get Parag Khanna’s book “Move: Where People Are going For A better future” here For more on Lawrence Huang’s work visit here Read Alex's piece on migration for the Byline Times here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E4 · Tue, September 26, 2023
Ep4. Who is leading the disorder?
It has long been held that the primary disorderers on the global stage are China and Russia. Let’s not forget, though, that medium powers, such as Iran, are also able to majorly disorder geopolitics. Meanwhile, imploded post-conflict countries like Libya are capable of injecting serious financial and jihadi contagion into neighbouring states and fuelling the Global Enduring Disorder. In this episode, we discuss how the tooth and nail struggle for global leadership leads some states to play the role of disorderers. We also examine how failures to coordinate at the international level exacerbate problems on the ground. In specific, we break down how Iran promotes global disorder as a strategy to increase its influence (via an interview with Ali Ansari) and how Libya’s profound domestic disorder infects the global system (through talking to Stephanie Williams). Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/struggle-for-global-leadership Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Subscribe to the Disorder Show Monthly Newsletter here For more on Ali Ansari, visit here For more from Stephanie Williams, visit here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E3 · Tue, September 19, 2023
Ep3. The Rise of the Neo-Populists
Over the past few decades leaders like Trump, Orban, and Bolsonaro have ridden a wave of popular outrage to rise to power. But what came first: the Neo-Populists or the era of Global Enduring Disorder? In this episode we chart the rise of the Neo-Populists, their impact on global order, and what we can do to stop them. Sean Wilentz explains the difference between real populism (like Bernie Sanders) and ‘faux’ or neo-populists (like Trump), while Anne Applebaum takes us through the missed opportunities and co-ordination failures of the post-Cold War years. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/neo-populism Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Note Links For more from Anne Applebaum here For more on Sean Wilentz here For more on Jonathan Winer here For more on Jamie Shea here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E2 · Tue, September 19, 2023
Ep2. Who Referees Cyberspace?
Although the birth of the internet was an interplay between American defense contractors and American tech firms, the US government actively chose to not regulate the commercial aspects of what it had birthed. From disinformation to cyber warfare, how can we better control the internet and stop it from reinforcing the Global Enduring Disorder? In this episode, former FBI Agent Asha Rangappa helps us understand what makes these new technologies so disruptive and how the West’s adversaries understand the politics of cyberspace. War Correspondent David Patrikarakos tells us about the physical impact of these new technologies on ongoing conflicts. Both conclude that our leaders have been naïve about the fact that for more than a decade we have been facing an existential multi-front cyber-war. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/unregulated-cyberspace Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Note Links For more from Asha Rangappa, subscribe to her email newsletter, The Freedom Academy here . She is also co-host of the podcast, It’s Complicated, with Renato Mariotti which you can find here . Get David Patrikarakos’ book, War in 140 Characters: How Social Media Is Reshaping Conflict in the Twenty-First Century here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
S1 E1 · Tue, September 19, 2023
Ep1. Welcome to the Global Enduring Disorder
We are living through an unprecedented era. International institutions like the UN are incapable of tackling global challenges, disordering powers like China and Russia are actively promoting chaos rather than order, and democratic countries are not effectively coordinating on transnational threats. The result? An era of Global Enduring Disorder has swept the world. We see it in the rise and fall of Trump, Bolsonaro, and Boris, inaction on climate change, and never-ending civil wars in Yemen, Ukraine, Syria, and Libya. In this episode, Jason Pack and Alexandra Hall Hall share their personal journeys and walk us through the fundamental features of our era of Disorder. We hear from esteemed historian Timothy Garton Ash, who will chart how the West has frayed, while author and podcaster Brian Klaas will tell us why democracies frequently pick the wrong leaders—especially in times of crisis. Disorder is produced by George McDonagh. Theme music is “These Spreadsheets Make Me Sick” by Glass Boy. Other music is provided by Glass Boy and Luca La Morgia. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Note Links Subscribe to the Disorder Show Monthly Newsletter here For more from Brian Klaas, subscribe to his substack here Get Timothy Garton Ash’s book, Homelands here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Trailer · Mon, September 11, 2023
Disorder - OUT NOW
Gone are the days of coherent international coordination. Rather than working together to solve pressing crises, many of the world’s most powerful states are actively making those crises worse. The result? We’re living through a novel historical era: The Global Enduring Disorder. The Disorder podcast teases out the key principles that connect seemingly disparate challenges: from Climate Change to Tax Havens, to Unregulated Cyberspace, to the Wars in Ukraine, Syria, and Libya. Jason Pack, NATO Foundation Senior Analyst, and Alexandra Hall Hall, a former British Ambassador, discuss with world-leading experts, senior diplomats and cultural icons, the fundamental principles lurking behind today’s global issues. At the conclusion of each episode, they will proposing inventive, win-win solutions to the globe’s most pressing challenges aka, ‘Ordering the Disorder’. Twitter: @DisorderShow Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Newsletter: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/newsletters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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