The Rational Reminder Podcast
A weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision-making, from three Canadians. Hosted by Benjamin Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Dan Bortolotti, Portfolio Managers at PWL Capital, and Mark McGrath, Associate Portfolio Manager at PWL Capital.
S2 E352 · Thu, April 10, 2025
Jessica Moorhouse: Everything But Money
What if the key to financial success isn’t just a better budget, but a better understanding of your relationship with money? In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, Ben and Dan sit down with Jessica Moorhouse to delve into the ins and outs of personal finance. Jessica is a money expert, Accredited Financial Counsellor Canada®, speaker, and bestselling author of Everything but Money. She is also the host of the More Money Podcast, one of Canada’s leading personal finance shows. During today’s conversation, Jessica unpacks the difference between a financial planner and a counsellor and why empathy is the missing piece in personal finance. Find out how different emotions and early memories of money can influence our perspective on personal finance, hear why understanding your relationship with money is so important, and learn about common financial behaviours to avoid. Jessica also delves into the value of understanding past traumas, the power of intergenerational money experiences, and whether mental health or a financial foundation is more important. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:02:50) Uncover the difference between a financial counsellor and a financial planner. (0:05:55) Her approach to working with clients and meeting their non-financial needs. (0:09:15) Find out what is missing in personal finance and why it is essential. (0:11:39) How shame impacts financial decision-making and common sources of shame. (0:14:50) Ways relative financial well-being and privilege shape our perspective of money. (0:19:46) Hear how to overcome financial shame and how it differs from feelings of guilt. (0:22:35) Rational versus irrational guilt and how fear affects financial decisions. (0:25:46) Learn about jealousy and envy as well as their impact on personal finance. (0:27:31) Early money memories and pragmatic money exercises to help frame your mindset. (0:36:54) Explore the power of understanding your money story for better financial decisions. (0:39:04) Unpack the common money habits to break and examples of toxic behaviours. (0:43:34) The interconnection between trauma and money and why it is important. (0:48:01) Jessica shares how learning about trauma informed her counselling approach. (0:53:05) Navigating mental health challenges and intergenerational money experiences. (0:58:11) Discover why spending money will not lead to long-term happiness. (1:02:33) Tips to begin rewriting your money story and Jessica's definition of success. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational
S2 E351 · Thu, April 03, 2025
DFA vs Vanguard
Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) and Vanguard have intersecting histories rooted in the development of the first-ever index fund. Vanguard's market-cap weighted index funds have been nothing short of revolutionary and they became synonymous with sensible investing for many good reasons, but Dimensional took implementing the ideas from academic finance a few steps further, leading to their own deserved acclaim. In today’s episode, Ben and Dan analyze over 30 years of history between DFA and Vanguard, from their founding and relationship to their rise as global leaders in asset management. We discover how their approaches to foundational finance theory differ, whether diversification is mostly semantics, and how DFA and Vanguard compare to one another over 25 years of matched US-domiciled mutual funds. We also discuss which approach is easier to implement, essential insights for fund advisors, DFA’s downsides despite its long-term outperformance of the Vanguard 500, and an uplifting cancer update from Ben in today’s After Show. For practical investment takeaways, tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:14) Unpacking DFA and Vanguard’s history and relationship. (0:03:10) Mac McQuown and the birth of index funds at Wells Fargo in 1964. (0:07:48) How DFA and Vanguard became global leaders in asset management. (0:10:43) Understanding DFA and Vanguard’s approach to foundational finance theory. (0:19:34) The semantics of diversification. (0:22:22) Comparing 25 years of matched Dimensional and Vanguard US mutual funds. (0:33:36) Which fund advisor’s approach is easier for others to implement and why. (0:39:30) How DFA has outperformed Vanguard in the long run (with downsides to consider). (0:43:09) Recapping today’s conversation: what every fund advisor needs to know. (0:46:41) The After Show: Ben’s cancer update, Dan as co-host, and listener reviews. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — <a href= "https://x.com/RationalRemind
S2 E350 · Thu, March 27, 2025
Scott Cederburg: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice
Our conversations with Professor Scott Cederburg from Eller College of Management have led to the most heated debates among our listeners! Today, Prof. Cederburg returns to discuss the changes he’s made to his paper that was the foundation of previous conversations - ‘Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice’. We begin with the data setup and headline findings of the paper before Prof. Cederburg defines “domestic” and “international” as they appear in his paper, why the block bootstrap approach is vital to his work, how and why the results of his paper differ from the status quo, and the evaluation metrics he uses to compare different investment strategies. Then, we explore his optimal base portfolio, the strategy he uses to derive it, how it performs in simulated worst-case scenarios, and how it changes when ditching the bootstrap approach or changing strategies from constant spending to proportional spending. To end, we learn of the importance of including the US in international stock portfolios, how it changes when the US is viewed as special above others, the correlation between labor income and domestic stock returns, and how the reviews of academics and practitioners have changed since the first iteration of the paper until this latest edition. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) What to look forward to in today’s conversation with Prof. Scott Cederburg (0:04:49) The data setup and headline findings from his paper, ‘Beyond the Status Quo.’ (0:07:01) Defining “domestic” and “international” as they appear in Prof. Cederburg’s paper. (0:08:34) Why the bootstrap approach is necessary for his work. (0:12:17) How and why the results of his paper differ from the status quo. (0:15:11) Unpacking the evaluation metrics he uses to compare different investment strategies. (0:16:05) Exploring his optimal base case portfolio and strategy, and how it performs in worst-case simulations. (0:23:05) How the optimal allocation changes when households vary their portfolio weights. (0:27:13) What to consider when ditching the block bootstrap in time-varying optimal portfolios. (0:29:46) Constant spending versus proportional spending: How the optimal portfolio changes. (0:30:49) Examining the sequence of returns risk. (0:42:14) The importance of including the US market in international stock portfolios. (0:43:40) Why the US is treated the same as any other domestic country in the paper, and how the data changes if it’s viewed as special. (0:51:40) The extent of the relationship between labor income and domestic stock returns. (0:53:01) How leverage affects optimal portfolio results. (1:05:20) Assessi
S2 E349 · Thu, March 20, 2025
AMA #4
In this episode, Ben, Dan, and Mark tackle another Ask Me Anything (AMA) session, covering a wide range of investing and financial planning topics. They begin with a highly requested debate on factor investing versus market cap-weighted portfolios and unpack the theory, research, and practical considerations behind both strategies. Ben explains why he prefers factor tilts when managing client portfolios, while Dan shares his perspective on why a simple market cap-weighted approach is more practical and sustainable. Then, they delve into the drivers of investor behaviour, common mistakes investors make, and powerful strategies to help investors overcome biases and improve their decision-making abilities. They also discuss the role of bonds in a portfolio, whether international bonds offer additional benefits, key retirement planning strategies, and the impact of sequence-of-returns risk. Join the conversation to discover how large corporations manage cash reserves, unpack the SPIVA Canada 2024 report findings, and explore the continued struggles of active management. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:06) Ben explains why market cap weighting is a valid strategy but prefers factor tilting. (0:06:58) Dan shares why he prefers market cap weighting approaches over factor tilting. (0:13:45) Hear how client expectations shape their investment approaches. (0:18:12) How to overcome the psychological challenges of investing and reframe your mindset. (0:22:02) The role of bonds and fixed income in a portfolio and sequence of withdrawal risk. (0:36:19) Recommendations for factor ETFs and the home biases associated with them. (0:39:48) Unpack the 4% rule for retirement planning and amortization-based withdrawals. (0:47:47) Expected returns for a “millennial” portfolio and why 10% annualized is unrealistic. (0:52:38) Find out if PWL would ever open a branch in the US and about their US partnerships. (0:53:20) Explore how corporate cash management differs from typical household investing. (0:55:59) Uncover the value of bonds and the common misconceptions surrounding them. (1:00:40) Learn about the pros and cons of investing in stocks and ETFs. (1:09:13) Aftershow: the SPIVA Canada 2024 report, activate management struggles, updates, and more. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Websit
S2 E348 · Thu, March 13, 2025
Andrew Barclay (StatCan): Measuring Inflation
Is the government manipulating inflation data? Why do so many people feel like their personal costs are rising faster than official inflation numbers suggest? In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we dive deep into one of the most debated and misunderstood economic topics: inflation. Today, we are joined by Andrew Barclay, an economist and senior analyst in the Consumer Price Division at Statistics Canada, to discuss everything you need to know about inflation and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Statistics Canada is Canada’s national statistical agency dedicated to producing accurate, relevant, and timely data to help Canadians better understand their country. In our conversation, we unpack how inflation and the CPI are calculated and why it is so important. We explore the controversy around CPI calculations and the influence of inflation on government benefits, tax brackets, and the overall economy. Andrew also addresses scepticism and conspiracy theories about government inflation reporting, uncovers drivers of the perception gap, and explains how Statistics Canada ensures the accuracy and integrity of its data. Join us to hear the real story behind CPI and inflation with Andrew Barclay! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) Background about Andrew and what inspired today's topic. (0:05:33) Find out why measuring inflation is important and how the CPI is calculated. (0:10:08) What goes into the CPI basket and how frequently the contents are updated. (0:12:42) How consumer choices impact inflation and how 'shrinkflation' is accounted for. (0:15:43) Learn how quality adjustments are accounted for in the CPI and why they matter. (0:19:01) Scepticism surrounding quality adjustments and how the CPI adapts to crises. (0:25:21) The role of grocery price tracking and why Canada uses a single CPI measure. (0:28:08) Explore the idea of personal inflation and why it is usually different to the CPI. (0:31:10) The difference between home prices and housing costs and how they are calculated. (0:35:41) Hear how Statistics Canada's approach for housing compares to other methodologies. (0:41:15) Perceived inflation versus actual inflation and drivers of the inflation perception gap. (0:51:58) Statistics Canada's method of dealing with the perception gap and ensuring quality. (0:55:51) Uncover the most criticized indexes and how Statistics Canada includes feedback. (1:01:52) Andrew's message for those who do not trust the CPI and his definition of success. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — <
S2 E347 · Thu, March 06, 2025
The Case for Index Funds
Are index funds the best investment strategy for most investors? In this episode of Rational Reminder, Benjamin Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Mark McGrath explore why low-cost index funds should be the primary investment strategy for most people. They explain how index funds evolved from a niche concept to a widely accepted strategy and outline their six key benefits. Learn about the fees associated with index funds, why index funds outperform most actively managed funds, and how to avoid the risks of picking individual stocks. They also explore academic research on long-term mutual fund performance, the persistence (or lack thereof) in active management, and the dangers of alternative indexing schemes. Discover how behaviour impacts investment decisions and why a globally diversified portfolio is crucial. Finally, in the aftershow, Ben shares an update regarding his health and listener feedback from the Rational Reminder community. Join the conversation and uncover why index funds are the best investment strategy and how to leverage them effectively to maximize your portfolio for long-term gains. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:58) Outline of today's topic and why index funds should be everyone's main investment strategy. (0:05:10) Index fund fundamentals, market cap weighting, and why not all ETFs are index funds. (0:10:03) Learn about the transition of index funds into mainstream finance and their low-fee advantages. (0:13:30) Linking fees to index performance and why lower fees gives them an advantage over managed funds. (0:19:50) The general awareness about index funds and what impact the lack of diversification has on actively managed funds. (0:26:35) Explore critical research comparing the returns on investment between index funds and actively managed funds. (0:33:32) Unpack why the size of the active management industry matters and common misconceptions surrounding the long-term returns of mutual funds. (0:42:26) Discover why some fund managers do well and how sector-specific performance influences stock returns. (0:48:28) Unpack why average returns are better than beating the market and what makes index funds tax efficient. (0:51:08) Find out what makes index funds easy to use and how this results in higher returns in the long term. (0:55:25) How index funds are consistent with foundational finance theory and why thematic ETFs and sector-specific index funds should be avoided. (1:05:40) The aftershow: Ben shares a personal health update, Rational Reminder news, and a request for listener AMA questions. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p <p dir=
S2 E346 · Thu, February 27, 2025
Hendrik Bessembinder: Why It's So Hard to Beat the Market
Did you know that just a handful of stocks drive nearly all of the stock market’s long-term gains? In this episode, we sit down with Hendrik Bessembinder to discuss his groundbreaking research on why most stocks fail to outperform Treasury bills and how a small fraction of stocks generate the most long-term market returns. Hendrik is a Professor in the Department of Finance at Arizona State University whose research focuses on market design, trading, and long-term investment performance across stock, foreign exchange, fixed income, futures, and energy markets. In addition to his academic contributions, Professor Bessembinder has over 25 years of consulting experience, advising major firms, financial markets, and government agencies. In our conversation, we delve into the findings of his research and find out how a small fraction of stocks generate the majority of long-term returns. We explore why traditional investment strategies often overlook the impact of skewness, the impacts of broad diversification and passive investing, and why active fund managers struggle to beat the market. Discover why chasing past returns can lead to costly mistakes, his latest research on 'sustainable returns', what type of industries have the highest stock returns, common investing mistakes, and more. Join us to uncover the surprising realities of stock market returns and how you can build a portfolio that stands the test of time with Professor Hendrik Bessembinder. Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:54) Explore Hendrik’s research on long-term stock returns and how most returns come from a small group of stocks. (0:08:30) Learn how company size interacts with the skewness in stock returns and what it means for individual investors. (0:11:39) Considering fundamentals in stock returns and the implications of skewness for measuring portfolio performance. (0:15:42) Unpack how he used bootstrap simulations in his paper and the performance of stock returns versus Treasury bills. (0:19:01) Find out the proportion of US firms responsible for dollar wealth creation and why diversification is essential for long-term stock returns. (0:25:23) Navigating volatility in the market and why it is difficult to identify skilled managers in time to leverage the market. (0:28:00) Compare the performance of US stocks versus global stocks and what is driving their performance. (0:32:04) What the findings of his research means for financial planners and individual investors. (0:35:35) Uncover which US firms generated the highest returns and what type of industries these companies are in. (0:42:07) Hear about the long-term performance of US mutual funds and how investor behaviour contributes to it. (0:49:54) How passive investing and index funds have reduced the con
S2 E345 · Thu, February 20, 2025
Episode 345 - AMA #3
As we continue to answer your questions from our most recent AMA, Ben, Mark, and Dan begin today’s episode with Bitcoin and how its value as an investment has changed over the years. Then, after briefly explaining how to find short clips of this podcast online, we discuss why many companies choose not to list directly on the TXS, how to implement factor investing without factor EFTS, the best way to invest if you could only make one EFT investment in your lifetime, and, and understanding buffered EFTs and market-linked GICs. We also cover expected returns in a corrupt market, return stacking for individuals, academia versus real-world applications, and why stock valuations will never be the same as they were in the past. To end, we look at lump sum investing versus dollar-cost averaging, what to remember regarding asset allocation, how we rebalance portfolios here at PWL Capital, and we wish Ben well as he awaits his diagnosis. Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:30) Unpacking the value of Bitcoin as an investment; past, present, and future. (0:09:58) Why we don’t use YouTube Shorts anymore and how to find our bite-sized clips. (0:10:29) Understanding why many companies refrain from directly listing on the TXS. (0:11:29) An interlude on how we take care of our bodies. (0:14:22) Implementing factor investing without factor ETFs, and Manulife’s multifactor ETFs. (0:19:21) What we would do if we could only invest in one ETF until retirement. (0:22:23) Buffered EFTs and market-linked GICs. (0:26:15) Market efficiency and expected returns in a low transparency/high corruption market. (0:29:50) Whether return stacking is a good idea for individuals, and unpacking leverage. (0:40:44) Balancing proven business philosophies with academic thinking. (0:47:39) The Shiller PE Ratio; why stock valuations are permanently higher than in the past. (0:54:58) Lump sum investing versus dollar-cost averaging. (1:00:09) Asset allocation and how to know which assets to sell first. (1:04:57) How PWL Capital rebalances client portfolios – an operational perspective. (1:10:42) The after show: Testicular cancer and heartwarming reviews. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram
S2 E344 · Thu, February 13, 2025
Michael Mauboussin: The One Job of an Equity Investor
What if the key to successful investing is about understanding how market expectations, intangible assets, and even your own biases shape the outcome? In this episode, Cameron sits down with Michael Mauboussin, a renowned expert in investment strategies and behavioural finance, to explore how the evolving dynamics of investing influence valuation, investor decision-making, and market efficiency. Michael is the head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, where he teaches courses on investing and decision-making. His work focuses on behavioural biases, skill versus luck, complex adaptive systems, and valuation. In our conversation, we discuss the core principles of equity investing, unpack the evolution of intangible assets, and explore how market dynamics are influenced by index funds. You’ll learn about capital allocation strategies, the shifting landscape of private equity, accounting challenges with intangibles, and how traditional investment frameworks are being redefined. Michael also provides insight into the "free dividend" fallacy, the importance of understanding the basic unit of analysis, the paradox of skill in active management, and more. Join us to learn about market and investing fundamentals to improve your strategy with Michael Mauboussin. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:08) What the primary job of an equity investor is and the origin of stock returns. (0:05:37) Why dividends are less critical to total shareholder return unless fully reinvested. (0:08:43) Dissect the behaviour of investors in dividend stocks and the "free dividend fallacy." (0:10:01) Value versus growth classifications and how intangible assets impact valuations. (0:16:39) Learn about the potential advantages for companies investing in intangible assets. (0:20:20) How to determine a company's position in the competitive advantage life cycle. (0:24:42) The phase that offers the highest returns and what to consider about newer industries. (0:26:18) Explore the tradeoffs of intangible-intensive companies and the impact on base rates. (0:29:22) Pitfalls of valuation multiples and the implications for systematic value investors. (0:32:25) Relevance of market metrics and how index funds have affected alpha opportunities. (0:38:14) Effects of rising indexed assets and what to consider about market concentration. (0:45:01) Discover the historical link between market concentration and future returns. (0:46:31) How active managers benefit markets and misconceptions about skilled managers. (0:48:46) The value of active managers and advice for structuring investment portfolios. <p dir
S2 E343 · Thu, February 06, 2025
How to Choose an Asset Allocation
Choosing an asset allocation is a crucial investment decision, as it determines expected returns and risk exposure. During this episode, we uncover what this means, exploring topics such as why risk may not always be the best assessment method. We unpack the three factors that John Grable’s risk profiling framework considers: behavioural loss tolerance, the ability to take risk (which assesses the financial capacity to withstand losses without affecting lifestyle), and the need to take risk. Many investors sabotage their returns by selling after losses and buying after gains, and we discuss the reasons behind this. We also explore why stocks tend to become less risky over long horizons, while bonds can be vulnerable to inflation and interest rate changes, before explaining why investors should focus on compensated risks. In the aftershow, we address listener comments on absolute returns, XEQT, why we have made certain sponsorship decisions, and more. To gain a deeper understanding of risk and avoid common pitfalls that can undermine your returns, tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: (0:05:10) The critical importance of choosing an asset allocation and understanding risk. (0:08:35) How behavioural loss tolerance impacts asset allocation. (0:18:42) Psychological theory on risk tolerance and willingness to engage in financial behavior. (0:30:48) Assessing your need to take risks. (0:39:24) Why market volatility is not where the true risks lie. (0:47:42) Private credit, other portfolio alternatives, and GICs. (0:53:03) The aftershow: demystifying the AMA controversy. (1:00:20) Absolute returns, XEQT, and sponsorship on the Rational Reminder. (1:12:05) An update on Ben’s health and what he has learned from this experience. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouT
S2 E342 · Thu, January 30, 2025
Matthew Ringgenberg: When Do Anomaly Returns Happen?
Today we are joined by the Professor of Finance at the University of Utah, Matt Ringgenberg to discuss everything related to anomaly returns. Matt’s research – mainly centred on the actions of short sellers – has been published in all the major journals including the Journal of Finance, the Journal of Financial Economics, and the Review of Financial Studies. We begin with the definition of an asset pricing anomaly before learning about the anomalies that Matt’s research is primarily focused on. Then, we unpack anomaly returns and how they relate to anomaly signal information, what causes anomalies, the risk versus mispricing debate, and the barriers to accessing financial data that allow anomalies to persist. We also weigh Matt’s research against its anomaly-denying counterparts, assess anomaly behaviour before and after publicly available signal information, explore models that help to predict future anomalies, and learn more about the economic mechanism underlying asset pricing anomalies. To end, we dive into Matt’s paper, ‘The Loan Fee Anomaly’ and explore the relationship between cross-sectional predictors and market returns, and Matt explains why long-term happiness is the only true marker of success. Key Points From This Episode: (0:05:07) Matt Ringgenberg defines an asset pricing anomaly and describes the anomalies his research is focused on. (0:06:27) When anomaly returns appear relative to the release of anomaly signal information. (0:07:57) How the annual forming of portfolios in June affects anomaly returns. (0:08:50) The cause of anomalies, and the risk versus mispricing debate on anomaly returns. (0:10:35) Unpacking the barriers to accessing financial data that allow anomalies to persist. (0:13:41) How Matt’s rebalancing approach could affect anomaly-denying research. (0:14:37) Applying his work to valuation-based anomalies and to investors capturing anomaly returns in live-traded portfolios. (0:16:04) How anomalies behave before anomaly signal information is publicly available. (0:17:48) Exploring the models that can be used to predict future anomaly signals. (0:19:05) How anomaly premiums traded on predicted signals compare to trades on actual information release dates. (0:19:37) Understanding the economic mechanism underlying asset pricing anomalies. (0:24:38) Dissecting one of Matt’s short-selling papers, ‘The Loan Fee Anomaly’. (0:32:51) The relationship between cross-sectional predictors and market returns. (0:39:11) What Matt hopes to pass on to his students in his Introduction to Investments course. (0:40:48) How Matthew Ringgenberg defines success. Links From Today’s Episode: <p
S2 E341 · Thu, January 23, 2025
PWL’s Next Chapter
PWL Capital is undergoing an exciting change that will help the company bring a greater positive impact to the Canadian Wealth Management space and serve more clients effectively. In this episode, Ben Felix and Cameron Passmore welcome Mike Sullivan, co-founder of OneDigital, to share the inside story behind PWL Capital's recent decision to join forces with OneDigital. With nearly 25 years of experience in growth through acquisitions, Mike explains how their unique culture and strategic vision led to this exciting collaboration. We discuss Mike’s role in driving OneDigital's expansion and how the company’s values align with PWL's mission to offer low-cost, client-centric, systematic investing. He provides insights into why this partnership represents more than just a business transaction by amplifying a shared vision for Canadian investors. Our conversation also delves into the dynamics of mergers and acquisitions and examines the importance of culture and purpose in making these critical decisions. Today’s episode offers a rare inside look at an M&A transaction with key players that many listeners will already be well-acquainted with. Tune in now to hear it all! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:16) Details on PWL Capital's decision to partner with OneDigital. (0:14:31) An introduction to co-founder Mike Sullivan and OneDigital. (0:16:38) How Mike knows when an acquisition will be a good fit. (0:19:13) The opportunities for building a different kind of wealth management firm in Canada. (0:21:14) What attracted Mike to PWL as a potential OneDigital partner. (0:34:05) Mike’s insights on applying what’s worked to the Canadian marketplace. (0:36:14) How being part of OneDigital will make PWL better. (0:37:59) Mike and his co-founder Adam Bruckman’s objectives for OneDigital. (0:40:20) Why you shouldn’t expect changes to PWL’s service offerings or teams. (0:45:02) How being part of OneDigital will help PWL assist other like-minded advisors. (0:46:36) The typical advisor profile that PWL/OneDigital Canada would like to attract. (0:53:15) Reflections on our hopes and goals: what we are looking forward to at PWL. (0:57:45) Mike’s definition of success, plus Cam and Ben’s answer to the success question! Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://r
S2 E340 · Thu, January 16, 2025
Ben Mathew: The Lifecycle Model vs. Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWR)
What drives the best financial planning decisions? In this episode, Ben Felix and Mark McGrath sit down with Ben Mathew, a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago and author of Economics: The Remarkable Story of How the Economy Works. The discussion explores the lifecycle model of economics, a powerful yet underutilized framework for financial planning, and contrasts it with traditional approaches like safe withdrawal rates (SWR). Ben Mathew shares insights into the lifecycle model, its origins, and its practical applications in aligning financial decisions with personal goals over a lifetime. We also dig into Ben’s innovative financial planning tool, TPAW (Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal) Planner, designed to bring the lifecycle model into practice. While the discussion delves into the complexities of financial planning, it’s packed with actionable insights for listeners seeking smarter, evidence-based strategies. Join us for a deep dive into the lifecycle model and discover how it compares to traditional safe withdrawal rates. Key Points From This Episode: (0:02:31) Identifying the main problem financial planning aims to solve and the biggest challenges in creating a plan for saving and spending across a lifetime. (0:05:49) Exploring the effectiveness of simple rules of thumb, like the 4% rule, and the economic models available to analyze financial planning problems. (0:09:16) Why the lifecycle model isn’t more widely adopted. (0:12:06) The basic premise of the lifecycle model. (0:16:45) How withdrawals in the lifecycle model relate to amortization and how risk affects amortization-based withdrawals. (0:21:12) Examining how amortization-based variable spending aligns with consumption smoothing and responds to portfolio drops. (0:25:25) How updating expected return assumptions mitigates behavioural worry during market drops. (0:26:37) The variability in spending seen in historical simulations, how variable spending can be tailored to individual preferences, and the recommended frequency for updating financial calculations. (0:38:30) What the lifecycle model advises about asset allocation. (0:42:00) The importance of expected return assumptions in lifecycle asset allocation advice. (0:45:28) Adjusting lifecycle advice for when you have limited information about expected returns and how retirement glide paths compare to the lifecycle model. (0:50:03) How asset allocation in the model changes based on the time horizon of the goal. (0:54:10) The influence of different wealth levels on asset allocation in the lifecycle model. (0:56:43) How the safe withdrawal rate methodology works and key problems with its approach. (01:08:11) Connecting the probabili
S2 E339 · Thu, January 09, 2025
2024 Year-End AMA Pt 2
In our second episode of 2025, Ben, Mark, and Dan continue to work through the listener questions we received in our 2024 AMA. We begin with home country biases and how to continue to grow your money from an already diversified portfolio before comparing the benefits of stock trading strategies and EFT portfolio strategies. Then, we discuss the impact of volatile blockchains on the wider securities market, whether you need to adjust your investment strategy when new tariffs are imposed, the ins and outs of terminal wealth management, the benefits of focusing on a total market index, and the personal finance perspective of renting versus buying in Canada. To end, we explore the best practices for increasing risk exposure, take a closer look at FIRE (financial impendence, retire early), assess investing behavioural biases and misconceptions that still pose a threat to even literate investors, and learn about how the Rational Reminder podcast is changing the lives of our listeners. Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:59) Whether owning a home affects your home country bias and financial asset portfolio. (0:02:43) The correlation between the economic risks of housing and the local stock market. (0:07:21) How to keep growing your money if you already have a diversified portfolio. (0:14:16) When to split your portfolio, and stock trading strategy versus EFT portfolio strategy. (0:22:20) The impact of Bitcoin and volatile blockchains on the wider securities market. (0:24:46) Adapting your investment strategy after the introduction or increase of trading tariffs. (0:26:20) Maxing out tax-free savings accounts for non-incorporated high-income professionals. (0:33:22) Switching to a total market index to avoid index funds that overvalue the market. (0:37:48) Renting versus buying in Canada, from a personal finance perspective. (0:42:39) The best practices for increasing risk exposure. (0:51:19) Unpacking FIRE – financial independence, retire early. (0:56:05) Balancing allocations between traditional retirement savings vehicles and real estate. (1:00:56) Investing behavioural biases and misconceptions that harm even literate investors. (1:09:24) Whether bonds actually exist, and everything we’ve changed our minds about in 2024. (1:19:21) Shaping worldviews, on-demand information, and other highlights from your reviews. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/
S2 E338 · Thu, January 02, 2025
Peter Mladina: Factor Betas and ICAPM in Practice
In today’s episode, we unpack how rigorous research translates into actionable strategies for wealth management. Ben and Mark are joined by Peter Mladina, Executive Director of Portfolio Research at Northern Trust Wealth Management and professor at UCLA. With an impressive body of published work and practical innovations like his goals-based asset allocation software, Peter offers a unique perspective on bridging the gap between theory and practice. The conversation delves into foundational topics like asset allocation and factor models, with a special focus on practical applications of research in wealth management. Peter shares insights from his research, including intriguing findings on factor investing and joint tests of market efficiency. From real estate investment trusts to the nuances of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), the discussion covers how these concepts can directly inform financial planning and portfolio construction. Tune in to explore the intersection of academic insight and everyday financial decision-making! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:17) Introducing Peter Mladina and his wealth management research. (0:04:00) Theoretical and practical shortcomings of Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). (0:05:24) How the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) resolves MPT’s shortcomings, and how the Intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) resolves the CAPM and MPT’s shortcomings. (0:10:16) Key distinctions between an optimal ICAPM portfolio and an optimal CAPM portfolio. (0:15:33) Allocating between liability hedge assets and risky assets, and when it’s sensible for individual investors to try to fully hedge consumption liabilities. (0:20:14) The role of Monte Carlo simulation and human capital in building ICAPM portfolios. (0:24:15) Steps for practitioners starting with ICAPM and how to advise their clients. (0:37:18) Insights from Peter’s papers on factor models: why common risk factors should explain returns across most asset classes. (0:40:11) The value of looking at asset classes through a factor lens. (0:41:54) Main factors Peter uses in his research and observations on the zoo of factors. (0:46:23) Takeaways from Peter’s paper on real estate (and why he doesn’t like it that much). (0:56:45) Unpacking hedge fund returns and factor models and Yale’s endowment performance. (01:02:44) Peter’s research on traded portfolios and jointly testing factor models and manager performance. (01:07:14) How Peter defines success, both professionally and personally. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Ra
S2 E337 · Thu, December 26, 2024
2024 Year-End AMA
As the year draws to a close, the Rational Reminder Podcast team delivers an engaging year-end special with a unique twist. Rather than curating clips from previous episodes, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Mark McGrath dive into an AMA-style episode, answering listener-submitted questions. They share reflections on lessons learned, highlight impactful community discussions, and provide thoughtful takes on investing strategies, personal growth, and financial planning. They discuss their evolving views on human capital integration, portfolio diversification, and the importance of behavioural finance in long-term planning. They also revisit key themes from earlier episodes and offer heartfelt thank-yous to their team and audience for a remarkable year. Join us for a mix of practical insights, entertaining banter, and a glimpse into what’s ahead for the Rational Reminder Podcast. Don’t miss this memorable year-end wrap-up! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) Episode format and a thank you to the PWL Capital team, producers, and audience. (0:05:14) Influential community discussions and their insights on efficient ETF design. (0:10:14) Hear the reason behind Ben's decision to shave his head for so long. (0:13:51) How to integrate human capital into useful financial planning and strategy. (0:19:33) They share their thoughts on the evolving definition of success in life and work. (0:23:33) Their top finance and investment book recommendations for retail investors. (0:28:50) Uncover the nuances of assessing a value premium within an ETF. (0:30:46) How real-life events shaped their approach to providing guidance and financial advice. (0:37:18) Return stacking and a comparison of Dimensional's and Avantis' vector portfolios. (0:41:05) Risks of bonds, bills, and credit and why past returns do not guarantee future results. (0:48:27) Explore the complexities of tax-efficient ETFs and Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) options. (0:56:50) Balancing long-term investment assumptions with short-term market dynamics. (1:03:23) We debate the U.S. market's valuation and the implications for asset allocation. (1:10:15) Hard financial lessons from Ben, Mark, and Dan's investment journeys. (1:16:29) Unpack the pros and cons of life insurance, infinite banking, and whole life insurance. (1:28:35) Aftershow: reviews, Marks's beard, a final thank you, and more. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itu
S2 E336 · Thu, December 19, 2024
Steve Utkus: Investor Beliefs and Financial Advice
What shapes investor beliefs and behaviours? Steve Utkus, a leading expert in investor behaviour and former Global Head of Investor and Retirement Research at Vanguard, brings decades of groundbreaking insights to this episode. Drawing on exclusive access to Vanguard’s anonymized client data and investor surveys, Steve uncovers the intricate links between what people believe and how they invest. In the first half, he reveals surprising findings from his research into investor beliefs and portfolio decisions. The second half dives into the impact of financial advisors, both human and robotic, on improving investor outcomes. Steve’s reflections, enriched by years of collaboration with academic leaders and personal conversations with Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, offer a rare window into the world of data-driven financial research. Join us today for this fascinating conversation as we unpack fresh perspectives on investor behaviour and the evolving role of financial advice! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:20) The importance of understanding investor belief, Steve’s unique approach to studying it, and the benefits of using survey data. (0:08:37) Understanding the effects of individual beliefs on portfolio equity shares. (0:13:40) How equity sensitivity varies with things like trading frequency and how observed sensitivity compares with predictions of an asset pricing model. (0:17:27) The variation of beliefs across different groups and the strong effect of being a pessimist, optimist, or having a middle-of-the-road perspective. (0:21:29) Investor cash flow expectations, how it affects stock return expectations, and how it aligns with models of equilibrium. (0:24:35) The impact of stock market disaster expectations on future stock returns and the effect of COVID-19 on investor expectations. (0:33:37) ESG investing motives, portfolio impact, and the role of financial returns. (0:38:35) Unpacking the impact of robo-advisors on previously DIY investors and who benefits. (0:45:21) Pros and cons of human financial advisors: the needs they satisfy over robo-advisors. (0:53:12) How unadvised investors' needs differ from those who get financial advice. (0:54:04) What determines how much value investors place on financial advice and how they think about the trade-offs between fees and the value of advice. (01:00:00) Reasons traditionally-advised people give for not switching to robo-advising. (01:03:15) Having a relationship with a good advisor: how it impacts investor behaviour through poor market performance periods, and the importance of frequent quality communication. (01:13:07) The key attributes of a high-retention advisor and what they should be focusing on. (0
S2 E335 · Thu, December 12, 2024
"What About Warren Buffett?"
What makes Warren Buffett’s investment legacy so iconic, and how has his advice shaped the world of investing? In this episode, we delve into Warren Buffet's investment philosophy and the lessons he offers everyday investors. In our conversation, we unpack the impact of his investment strategies on the financial world, debunk common misconceptions, and discuss how his strategies have changed over time. We also examine the structural barriers to replicating his success, the complexities of scale and changing market dynamics, and the parallels between his approach and modern asset pricing models. Discover Warren Buffett’s astonishing historical returns, his perspectives on diminishing returns for active managers, and the misunderstood nuances of his advice regarding index funds. Gain insight into academic research on Warren Buffett’s success, his pragmatic view on cash holdings, and his opinion on the value of dividends for investors. Tune in to learn about the world's greatest investor and how you can apply his wisdom to your own portfolio! Key Points From This Episode: (0:04:55) Warren Buffett’s legacy and Berkshire Hathaway's performance history. (0:13:04) The problem of diminishing returns to scale and finding skilled active managers. (0:18:37) Reasons Buffett repeatedly advises most investors to choose low-cost index funds. (0:23:14) Why identifying skilled managers before they outperform the market is impossible. (0:30:15) Research explaining Buffett's success using multi-factor asset pricing models. (0:35:30) Insight into why Berkshire Hathaway holds large cash reserves as part of its strategy. (0:44:02) Buffett’s views on dividends and why his focus remains on reinvestment. (0:48:16) Why diversification concentration is a bad strategy and Buffett's investing superpower. (0:57:07) Aftershow: Ben’s experience of being on The Wealthy Barber podcast. (0:58:07) Reviews and feedback from the episode with Randolph Cohen and Michael Green. (1:04:58) Changes to our year-end episode format and what listeners can expect. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — <a href= "https://x.com/R
S2 E334 · Thu, December 05, 2024
Magnus Reitan: Managing (Significant) Family Wealth
How do you balance family values, evidence-based investing, and building long-term wealth? In this episode, we are joined by Magnus Reitan, CEO of Reitan Kapital, to discuss his evidence-based approach to wealth management. Reitan Kapital is a leading investment firm specializing in index fund strategies and innovative portfolio optimization techniques. Under his leadership, the firm has become a key player in the investment industry, known for its analytical approach and commitment to sustainable and effective financial solutions. In our conversation, we delve into the disciplined, evidence-based philosophy driving Reitan Kapital’s investment strategy, the importance of simplicity in managing wealth, and the lessons he’s learned as an investor and a leader. We also explore the nuances around managing family wealth, unpack the importance of aligning investment strategies with family and business goals, and uncover the influence of Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund on Reitan Kapital’s approach. Join us as we explore the intersection of finance, legacy, and innovation and learn why a low-cost, evidence-based investment strategy works with Magnus Reitan. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:27) The Reitan family’s journey from a single grocery store to a multinational group. (0:04:20) How Reitan Kapital fits into the broader Reitan Group and how it started. (0:06:35) Discover how Reitan Kapital defines risk and the role of access liquidity. (0:08:06) Magnus shares how he developed his personal investment philosophy. (0:09:33) Hear how his personal interest in finance led to founding Reitan Kapital. (0:11:24) Explore the differences between managing a business and a family portfolio. (0:12:26) Why the company chose to hire a CIO who was not part of the Reitan family. (0:13:59) Reitan Kapital’s values: long-term perspective, diversification, liquidity, and low costs. (0:17:37) Hear how the family decided on and agreed to the company's investment approach. (0:18:58) Asset allocation at Reitan Kapital and the reasons behind its approach. (0:21:50) Avoiding portfolio complexity and the benefits of evidence-based investing. (0:24:30) The influence of Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund on Reitan Kapital’s philosophy. (0:26:07) Sources of information for learning about portfolio management and financial markets. (0:27:00) Lessons and key takeaways from the recent Reitan Kapital investor conference. (0:29:38) He shares his definition of success and why passion is important. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rati
S2 E333 · Thu, November 28, 2024
The Presidential Puzzle: Trump's Win and Expected Stock Returns
What does Trump’s re-election mean for the markets? In this episode, Ben and Mark explore The Presidential Puzzle, a phenomenon revealing that equity risk premiums have historically been higher under Democratic presidencies than Republican ones. With Trump returning to office as the 47th U.S. president, they examine how voter risk aversion shapes political outcomes and market expectations, offering surprising insights into this intriguing connection between politics and investing. They also delve into market timing pitfalls, the importance of diversification, and how financial advisors can help investors navigate emotionally charged decisions. To wrap up, Ben and Mark reflect on listener perspectives and explore the intriguing future of Bitcoin in finance. Tune in to learn what Trump’s win means for expected stock returns and more! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:18) Mark and Ben’s experiences at the Physician Financial Independence Conference. (0:06:53) Republicans vs. Democrats: What the election results mean for the stock market. (0:09:09) The Presidential Puzzle and how belief informs asset choices among voters. (0:15:12) How risk aversion and the economy impact election outcomes and expected returns. (0:20:08) What investors should and should not do with this information. (0:24:38) The dangers of making financial decisions based on emotional predictions. (0:30:02) Unpacking the relationship between global risk aversion and U.S. presidencies. (0:31:20) Our aftershow segment: digging into recent reviews, the podcast topic puzzle, Ben’s recent trip to Boston, and Bitcoin. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.ca Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ </p
S2 E332 · Thu, November 21, 2024
Randolph Cohen & Michael Green: How Concerned Should We Be About Index Funds?
Are index funds a silent disruptor? Or are the concerns overblown? In this grab-your-popcorn episode, Michael Green returns to the show after his previous appearance elicited a wave of compelling feedback from listeners. These included very smart individuals in academia and practice who were interested in hearing a counter perspective. Joining Michael today for a lively debate is Randolph Cohen, Senior Lecturer of Entrepreneurial Management in the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. In our conversation, Michael shares his deep concerns about how index funds and target-date funds might be distorting financial markets, honing in on the tension between market efficiency and price elasticity. Randolph counters with an academically grounded perspective, drawing on his PhD and years of research and teaching at one of the world’s leading business schools. With Ben and Cameron moderating, the discussion explores both sides without reaching a definitive conclusion. Tune in to witness this spirited, nuanced exchange and decide where you stand! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:14) Introducing Michael Green, Randolph Cohen, and today’s topics of debate. (0:06:00) Defining passive investing, distinguishing between the two different meanings of “the rise of passive investing”, and how much of the market is currently held by passive investors. (0:12:53) Michael’s concerns with the high levels of passive investing and Randy’s response. (0:20:55) Addressing the proliferation of target-date funds and their use in different scenarios. (0:28:48) Debating risk in the market, raised valuations, and retirement savings diversification. (0:42:22) A breakdown of the biggest thing Michael and Randy disagree on: how passive investing is impacting stock market valuations. (0:57:06) Answering the question: does inelasticity rise with passive, and how does it shape the impact of active managers? (01:06:14) Unpacking whether the rise of passive has made the markets more efficient; an accompanying refresher on the two types of passive. (01:09:27) Reasons to doubt whether there really is a rise in both types of passive and the effect of the rise in mega firms. (01:19:16) The state of fundamental analysis in the current market and Michael’s response to a recent paper by Goldman Sachs attempting to isolate the component of passive. (01:23:30) Unpacking the cross-sectional impact on stock valuations from index investing and insights on the work of Valentine Haddad. (01:31:28) The implications of today’s subject matter for investors and what they should be doing with this information. (01:44:22) Reflection on why more experts don’t share Michael’s level of concern. (01:47:42) Randy’s takeaways
S2 E331 · Thu, November 14, 2024
Cameron in Norway: The Indexing Revolution, and Key Lessons from Past Guests
In today's episode, Cameron sits down with Mark McGrath to talk about his trip to Trondheim, Norway, the event he attended there, and his presentation in which he shared top lessons from prestigious Rational Reminder Podcast guests. Tuning in, you'll hear Cameron's top takeaways from conversations with Nobel laureate Eugene Fama and his collaborator Kenneth French, as well as Robert Merton, Antti Ilmanen, Professor Ludovic Phalippou, and more. We also delve into the changing industry trends regarding index investing and the many benefits that come with embracing it, including how it helps financial advisors better serve their clients. Stay tuned for our after-show section, where we discuss advice for new advisors, from developing a robust investment philosophy to building a network, along with insights to help consumers navigate the industry and much more. To learn all about Cameron’s trip to Norway, top guest takeaways, and industry trends around index investing, be sure to tune in! Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:13) An overview of today’s episode and a discussion on industry trends. (0:03:56) Our conversation with Håkon Kavli on managing Reitan Kapital. (0:04:38) What it was like for Cameron to meet Håkon Kavli and Magnus Reitan in Norway. (0:05:42) The excellent event in Trondheim, Norway, and their impressive lineup of speakers. (0:08:56) Unpacking industry trends in index investing and why more people are embracing it. (0:09:42) The light bulb moment for Mark and Cameron regarding index investing. (0:19:07) Highlights from our interviews with Eugene Fama, Ken French, and Robert Merton. (0:25:28) Dr. Annamaria Lusardi's insights and takeaways from our John Cochrane interview. (0:29:05) Top lessons from our conversation with Antti Ilmanen on low-expected returns. (0:30:58) Insights from talking with Professor Ludovic Phalippou about private equity. (0:32:22) Closing thoughts on Cameron’s presentation in Norway and index investing trends. (0:39:44) Our aftershow segment: advice for new advisors, ways the industry has changed, tips for consumers, technology insights, personal updates, and more. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.i
S2 E330 · Thu, November 07, 2024
Davidson Heath: How Are Index Funds Affecting Financial Markets and Corporate Governance?
What happens when index investing dominates the market? In this episode, we’re joined by Davidson Heath, Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Utah David Eccles School of Business, to explore this question and its surprising answers. Davidson’s research dives into the unintended impacts of passive investing, examining how it influences price stability, corporate governance, and even the way we define shareholder responsibility. He unpacks how index funds, while supporting price efficiency, may be weakening governance structures by reducing shareholder oversight, a shift that could have lasting effects on corporate accountability. We also discuss the promise and limitations of socially responsible investing (SRI), as Davidson introduces the term “impact washing” to describe how some SRI funds fail to achieve real change despite their green branding. In a forward-looking segment, Davidson shares insights on the collaboration between AI and human intelligence in finance, giving a reassuring perspective on the future of machine and human co-existence in complex decision-making. This episode is a must-listen for anyone curious about the hidden dynamics of passive investing and the evolving role of technology in finance! Key Points From This Episode: (0:02:22) Davidson’s paper On Index Investing; Why active managers are important to indexing. (0:08:42) Conclusions on how index investing is affecting price efficiency. (0:11:10) The role of shareholders in corporate governance. (0:13:06) How the incentives of index funds to monitor portfolio firms differ from active funds. (0:15:10) Measuring how well index or active funds are monitoring the companies they own. (0:16:54) How the expense ratios of index funds affect their quality of monitoring. (0:18:08) What shareholders can do to monitor and make themselves heard. (0:20:31) How index fund ownership affects other firm-level governance issues. (0:21:30) Recap and takeaways on index funds and the market. (0:25:39) The impact of socially responsible investing (SRI) and how successful they are at selecting firms with better environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics. (0:28:08) Unpacking “impact washing” in SRI funds and its consequences. (0:33:04) Insights on how ETFs are replicating index funds. (0:37:03) The implications of Davidson’s findings for index ETF investors and the markets. (0:38:57) Details on Davidson’s Cyborg Trading project and how it’s using AI to complement human intelligence. (0:42:42) How Davidson defines success: being a part of a worthwhile endeavour. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: <a href= "https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-
S2 E329 · Thu, October 31, 2024
Optimal Education Savings, Withdrawals, and Asset Allocation
Unlocking the power of education savings is often a complex task, but with the right strategies, a Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP) can be a game-changer for Canadian families planning their children's future. In this episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Mark McGrath take a deep dive into the mechanics of the RESP, covering everything from optimal contributions and grant maximization to tax-efficient withdrawals and asset allocation. They discuss critical factors like the Canada Learning Bond (CLB) for low-income families and the intricacies of group RESPs, noting how pooled plans, though easy to join, can financially penalize those who don’t stay the course. With the RESP’s unique 35-year lifespan and its flexible range of education options, this in-depth conversation brings clarity to a valuable tool often overshadowed by its complexity. Tune in to discover practical strategies that could transform how you fund education, optimize your investments, and make the most of Canada’s RESP benefits. Key Points From This Episode: (0:02:43) Purpose and structure of the RESP as a tool to fund post-secondary education. (0:06:25) Insight and tips for how contribution limits and government matching grants work. (0:07:13) How the CLB supports low-income families with up to $2,000 without contributions. (0:10:13) Family RESPs, which allow multiple beneficiaries to share contributions and earnings. (0:11:54) Distinguishing between Education Assistance Payments (EAP), Post-Secondary Education Payments (PSE), and their tax implications for beneficiaries. (0:14:27) Front-loading versus annual contributions: optimal contribution strategies to maximize grants and investment growth. (0:23:22) Tips for tax-efficient RESP withdrawals, especially if beneficiaries have other income. (0:35:28) Education outside of Canada, over-contribution penalties, and other considerations. (0:37:28) RESPs and estate planning, including naming a successor subscriber in your will. (0:42:54) Asset allocation advice: prioritize growth early and stabilize as educational costs near. (0:48:00) Constructive criticism of RESP policies to increase access for low-income families. (1:02:02) Summing up the benefits and challenges of RESPs and encouraging families to use them wisely as part of their education savings plan. (1:07:39) The aftershow: reviews, praise for Dan, and a community debate on expected returns. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — <a href= "https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id142653058
S2 E328 · Thu, October 24, 2024
Prof. Stephen R. Foerster: Pursuing the Perfect Portfolio
Have you ever wondered how the world's top financial thinkers shaped the way we invest today? In this episode, Ben and Cameron sit down with Professor Stephen Foerster from the Ivey Business School to explore the evolution of modern investing. As a distinguished financial expert and co-author of In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio, Professor Foerster dives into the groundbreaking work of financial pioneers like Harry Markowitz, Bill Sharpe, Gene Fama, and others, unpacking their remarkable contributions to portfolio management, risk assessment, and market efficiency as we know it today. Tuning in, you'll gain a deeper understanding of Markowitz's revolutionary diversification theory, Sharpe's introduction of beta as a risk measure, and Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis, as well as each of their perspectives on the “perfect portfolio,” tying together the history, theory, and practical application of modern investment strategies. Whether you're looking to sharpen your strategy or build your investment knowledge from the ground up, this conversation with Professor Foerster is packed with actionable takeaways and fascinating stories that could change the way you approach your financial future. Don’t miss this opportunity to learn from the thought leaders who shaped the market! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:29) Contrasting the historical art of investing with the modern science of investing. (0:04:44) Markowitz’s diversification theory and the importance of balancing risk and return. (0:09:39) Sharpe’s capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and his contribution to measuring risk. (0:16:13) Insight into Fama’s Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the joint hypothesis problem. (0:19:13) The rise of factor investing and the significance of Fama-French’s three-factor model. (0:23:26) Unpacking Shiller and Fama's main point of disagreement on bubbles. (0:26:50) Bogle’s perfect portfolio and persistence about the index fund, despite resistance. (0:29:37) How the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) option pricing formula changed the world. (0:34:37) Ways that Merton contributed to portfolio theory and his take on TIPS. (0:36:20) Key takeaways from talks with Martin Leibowitz, Charlie Ellis, and Jeremy Siegel. (0:37:35) An interesting analogy for Professor Foerster’s take on the “perfect portfolio.” (0:40:53) Correlation vs. causation in stock pricing and how it applies to factor investing. (0:46:38) Examples of masterly inactivity and investor lessons from Madoff's Ponzi scheme. (0:52:07) The dangers of FOMO, a SPACs cautionary tale, and lessons from value investors. (1:00:43) Winning at tennis vs. investing and risks of over-reliance on automated decisions. <p dir="
S2 E327 · Thu, October 17, 2024
Building Better Portfolios with Don Calcagni
What does it take to manage a $60 billion wealth management firm while keeping investment strategies grounded in scientific thinking? In this episode, we’re joined by Don Calcagni, Chief Investment Officer at Mercer Advisors. Don chairs the firm’s investment committee and provides guidance on mergers and acquisitions, investment integration, and long-term strategic planning. His expertise spans fiduciary oversight, portfolio management, private equity, and financial mathematics. In our conversation, we discuss how his firm constructs client portfolios, engages with academic and industry experts, and leverages a factor-based investment approach. He also explains the importance of having an investment philosophy rooted in fiduciary principles and delves into how Mercer Advisors manages fiduciary oversight for billions of dollars in assets across thousands of families. Explore the details of portfolio governance and the role of the firms’s alternative investment platform space. Gain insights on value metrics, factor investing, and how Mercer works to provide a family-office experience for everyday clients. Tune in for a deep dive into portfolio construction and the evolving landscape of wealth management with Don Calcagni! Key Points From This Episode: (0:05:22) Learn about Mercer Advisors and the range of services it has on offer. (0:07:10) Unpack Mercer Advisors’ approach and philosophy to portfolio construction. (0:11:55) The Building Better Portfolio Summit and the purpose of the event. (0:17:08) How the meetings are structured and the main takeaways from the last event. (0:24:45) What topics cause extreme points of agreement and disagreement at the meetings. (0:29:21) Find out how takeaways from the events are implemented into client portfolios. (0:31:19) Mercer Advisors’ recently launched alternative investment platform space. (0:40:23) Don shares valuable recommendations and advice for the average investor. (0:42:23) Aftershow: the controversy surrounding the RBC options trading incident. (0:49:57) Listener feedback, reviews, updates, and upcoming events. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — <a href
S2 E326 · Thu, October 10, 2024
Dr. Sunil Wahal: Applying Financial Science
What are the critical factors driving investment success? How can investors balance profitability and risk? In this episode, we sit down with Dr. Sunil Wahal, the Jack D. Furst Professor of Finance and Director of the Center for Responsible Investing at the W.P Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, to delve into the intricacies of financial science. With over 25 years of academic and practical experience, Dr. Wahal shares his unique perspective on factor investing, profitability premiums, and how to approach value investing in today’s complex financial environment. He talks about the joint distribution of value and profitability, explains how profitability premiums work, and discusses the challenges faced when integrating academic research into practical investing strategies. Dr. Wahal also touches on common misconceptions in financial theory, the long-term benefits of maintaining a diversified investor base, and why understanding the nuances of financial risk is key to avoiding costly mistakes. Gain insights into building a successful investment portfolio grounded in the principles of financial science and how to avoid common pitfalls in factor investing. Join us to hear actionable strategies for balancing risk, understanding factors, and applying academic research to real-world scenarios with Dr. Sunil Wahal! Key Points From This Episode: (0:04:15) Dr. Wahal’s work on profitability, data sourcing challenges, and its significance. (0:08:01) The impact of controlling the value of the profitability premium. (0:10:08) Correlations between value and profitability and the benefits of “tilted” portfolios. (0:14:48) Steps for unleveraged long-term investors to build profitable portfolios. (0:17:27) How the joint distribution of value and profitability differs from a profitability screen. (0:20:43) Approaches of large financial firms to implementing value and profitability in portfolios. (0:24:41) Time horizons for tiled portfolios and their expected returns after cost. (0:30:53) Insight into how institutions decide on which investment managers to hire and fire. (0:38:00) Exploring how the hiring and firing of managers affects institutional performance. (0:40:16) Ways the relationships with institutions influence hiring decisions and performance. (0:44:35) Uncover how institutions select which private market firms to invest in. (0:48:58) Key takeaway lessons from Dr. Wahal’s research for institutional investors. (0:50:52) Why frequently hiring and terminating managers may not be the best approach. (0:52:32) Advice for retail investors and the importance of cost in managing portfolios. (0:59:22) Reasons that institutions avoid indexing and the com
S2 E325 · Thu, October 03, 2024
Addressing 200+ Comments on Renting vs. Owning a Home
There are many different considerations behind housing when you are in the position to choose between renting or buying. During this episode, hosted by Ben Felix and Dan Bortolotti, we address user questions and comments on homeownership, rentals, and the factors that may lead to choosing one over the other. We discuss what makes homeownership more attractive as your financial situation evolves, consider whether or not landlords are making money on their properties in 2024, and explore the explanations behind whether or not renters are less wealthy than owners. This conversation also touches on one of the most common misconceptions about housing, why it is untrue, and how to make this key decision of renting or buying based on both lifestyle and financial considerations and the difference in mindset between renters and buyers. Join us today to hear all this and more. Key Points From This Episode: (0:02:06) Homeownership versus renting with renovations and rental evictions in mind. (0:08:40) Understanding the risks and rewards associated with securitive tenure. (0:10:09) Factors that may influence changing needs that may influence whether you rent or buy. (0:15:58) Three factors that one user would include in an argument of renting versus buying. (0:18:25) Addressing the idea that it is equally expensive for a family or landlord to own a home. (0:21:00) How the cost of homeownership evolves with time and other factors. (0:24:50) Why owning a home is not above and beyond better than renting or owning with a mortgage. (0:27:50) Understanding factors beyond financial considerations when it comes to renting versus owning. (0:34:10) The difference in mindset between homeowners and renters and the benefits of both. (0:38:10) Why it is so beneficial to be open-minded and add to conversations rather than rejecting other people’s ideas. (0:40:25) Ben tells the story from the start of his career and Dan shares his experience of feedback on the Canadian Couch Potato blog. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on TikTo
S2 E324 · Thu, September 26, 2024
Dr. Bryan Taylor: Lessons from Market History (1600-2024)
Have you ever wondered how financial markets performed centuries ago or how world events impacted stock prices? Today, we sit down with Dr. Bryan Taylor, President and Chief Economist at Global Financial Data, to unpack the world’s fascinating financial history. Dr. Taylor is known for his extensive work in collecting and analyzing historical financial data that spans several centuries and his valuable knowledge of stock, bond, and commodity market trends, which led to the creation of Global Financial Data. In our conversation, Dr. Taylor shares insights from his extensive research, covering stock and bond returns from as far back as the 1600s. From the impact of the French Revolution on financial markets to the performance of commodities, Dr. Taylor provides a rare view of the long-term trends shaping today’s financial decisions. Learn about the value of historical financial data, its importance for investment decision-making, and how long-term trends can provide insights into future market behaviour. We discuss the creation of Global Financial Data's extensive historical financial database, the challenges of gathering centuries-old data, and the long-term performance of stocks versus bonds. Explore the impact of major geopolitical events on financial markets, the importance of studying historical market trends for modern investment decisions, and how his data-driven research has been utilized. Join us as we delve into the world’s financial history and its relevance to today’s investment landscape with Dr. Bryan Taylor. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:41) Background about Global Financial Data, their data sources, and the challenges of collecting historical data. (0:09:27) What he finds fascinating about historical data, who uses the database, and the role of historical data in financial decision-making. (0:14:49) How stocks have performed relative to bonds throughout the financial records. (0:17:34) Uncover the main historical factors that limit returns and increase risk for investors and the five financial eras. (0:23:18) Explore the trends in stocks and bonds during the five financial eras and the impact of government debt and inflation on returns. (0:29:04) Common characteristics of countries that have had bad long-term market outcomes and the effect of world events on markets. (0:35:11) Learn about the best and worst-performing markets and what makes the US market so resilient. (0:38:36) His outlook for stocks and bonds and how the recent bear market compared to past market upheavals. (0:41:36) Compare past and current interest rates and the return on commodities versus stocks and bonds. (0:46:20) Overcoming the lack of historical data for emerging market returns and what defines an emerging market. <p dir
S2 E323 · Thu, September 19, 2024
Renting Versus Buying a Home in Canada 2005-2024
Is renting just “throwing money away,” or could it be the smarter financial choice? In this episode, we dive deep into one of the most debated topics in personal finance: renting versus owning a home. In our conversation, we discuss the nuances of renting versus owning, the hidden costs of buying a home, and the importance of saving discipline. Tuning in, you’ll discover how emotional biases may inflate real estate prices and how societal pressures influence housing decisions. Then, we shift our focus to a listener's question about interest rates and bonds. Dan explains how bond prices and yields work inversely and delves into the concept of bond duration. He also breaks down how long and short-term bonds react to interest rate changes and why the Bank of Canada’s influence on bond markets may not always be straightforward. Join us as we investigate the pros and cons of renting versus buying and how to leverage bonds effectively in a dynamic interest rate environment! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:54) Exploring the common belief that owning a home is universally better. (0:09:13) How buying and renting in Canada compares to other countries. (0:10:58) Some of the inherent risks of renting versus buying in Canada. (0:17:01) Methods to test how housing performed as an asset with examples. (0:21:04) The importance of analyzing real data, and Ben presents his findings. (0:31:03) How housing costs influence the financial outcome of renting versus owning. (0:35:51) Ways that mortgages, housing costs, and forced savings affect wealth accumulation. (0:47:34) Unpacking how maintenance costs serve as a proportion of the building value. (0:52:45) Renting versus buying takeaways and the associated psychological factors. (1:00:37) Dan’s take on whether long-term bonds can take advantage of falling interest rates. (1:10:55) Insight into how various market-driven factors influence the long-term return on bonds. (1:13:30) Aftershow: final takeaways, catch-up, news, and more. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind<
S2 E322 · Thu, September 12, 2024
Prof. Marco Sammon: How are Passive Investors Affecting the Stock Market?
Can we really understand the impact of passive ownership on the US market? Marco Sammon is an Assistant Professor in the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. During this episode, he joins us to share deep insights into the complex and counter-intuitive nature of the index fund revolution. To kick off our conversation, we discuss some of the challenges associated with getting a true understanding of the scope of passive ownership across the US. Distinguishing between different approaches to investment, we begin to unpack Marco’s paper with Alex Chinco, titled ‘The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is’. We touch on the relevance of Grossman Stiglitz in 2024, pricing and reconstitution, and the ins and outs of employee stock and compensation. Using the case studies of huge global firms, we consider how to best accommodate passive demand. Lastly, as an index investor who does not own index funds, Marco shares his opinion on whether index funds have had a net positive or negative impact on financial markets. Tune in today to get a more dynamic view of the complex world of index funding and investment. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:45) Index funds, index and passive investments, and why Professor Marco Sammon is perfectly positioned to unpack these concepts. (0:03:36) The challenges of understanding just how big passive ownership is in the US market. (0:08:16) Distinguishing between partial investment, direct investment and passive funds. (0:10:14) Important concepts on the closing auction and which indexes Marco focuses on. (0:15:50) Defining the Grossman-Stiglitz framework and its validity in 2024. (0:20:36) Evolving ideas around pricing and reconstitution over time. (0:23:05) Why indexing is a fixed-point problem and how to measure market efficiency. (0:32:19) Nuances of security demands around indexing and how it differs from other investors. (0:38:02) Employee compensation and reverse causality as illustrated by Marco’s friend. (0:42:10) Why it is important to distinguish between equal-weighted and value-weighted. (0:44:13) How huge firms like Facebook and Tesla accommodate passive demand. (0:48:19) Conditions that affect the responsiveness of firms in accommodating passive demand. (0:51:13) The ‘Dead Reckoning’ metaphor to describe how we can know who is clearing the market. (01:02:22) Marco’s thoughts on whether index funds have had a net positive or negative impact. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — <a href= "https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id
S2 E321 · Thu, September 05, 2024
Evidence in Practice with Håkon Kavli
How can the Rational Reminder Podcast get even better? By bringing back one of its most beloved voices, Dan Bortolotti, also known as "The Spud." In this exciting episode, hosts Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Mark McGrath announce that Dan, the mind behind the Canadian Couch Potato Podcast, will now be a regular guest, contributing segments like "Bad Investment Advice" or "Ask the Spud.” Before Dan joins the conversation, we have an insightful discussion with Håkon Kavli, CIO of Reitan Kapital. Håkon shares how his team manages the wealth of one of Norway’s most prominent families, comparable to Canada’s Weston family. We discuss Reitan Kapital’s evidence-based investing approach, their robust methods for overcoming portfolio optimization challenges, and much more. Håkon also sheds light on their upcoming investing conference in Norway, featuring speakers like our very own, Cameron Passmore, and Marcos López de Prado. Following this, Dan kicks off his return by dissecting an article that advocates going all-in on the QQQ ETF in an RRSP, exposing the dangers of such a concentrated and risky strategy. He contrasts this approach with the wisdom of diversifying across global markets, using examples like Vanguard’s VEQT ETF, which offers exposure to over 13,000 stocks worldwide. Additionally, if you’re a financial advisor interested in joining a planning-focused, fiduciary firm like PWL Capital, we encourage you to reach out. Our team is growing, and we’re looking for like-minded individuals to join our mission. Tune in for a rich mix of expert advice, thoughtful discussions, and exciting announcements! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:28) Announcements: a new regular guest, PWL’s call for like-minded advisors, and more. (0:04:15) Introducing Håkon Kavli, the Reitan family, and the origins of Reitan Kapital. (0:08:06) Reitan Kapital’s investment philosophy and asset allocation strategy. (0:10:29) The biggest differences between a Reitan Kapital portfolio and a market portfolio. (0:13:19) Capital market assumptions; how they influence Reitan Kapital's investment process. (0:20:38) Portfolio optimization challenges and Reitan’s robust methods for addressing these. (0:35:06) The role of private equity in a diversified portfolio and how it differs from public equity. (0:38:40) Fee structure significance in private equity investments and their impact on returns. (0:40:38) Risks associated with private equity and how they compare to public markets. (0:43:36) Reitan Kapital’s view on how private equity fits into a diversified portfolio. (0:49:08) Challenges of investing in private equity for retail investors. (0:50:26) Why so many institutions and firms have substantial allocations to private markets. <p dir=
S2 E320 · Thu, August 29, 2024
Kyla Scanlon: In This Economy?!
Have you ever wondered how vibes can shape the economy? Or how the economy differs from financial markets? Or even how meme stocks operate? In this episode, we dive into the intersection of economic theory, social media, and public sentiment with Kyla Scanlon, an insightful economic commentator known for her relatable approach to explaining complex economic concepts. Kyla is a prolific content creator and founder of the financial education company, Bread. She produces a weekly newsletter, informative YouTube videos, the Let’s Appreciate Podcast, and (almost) daily short-form videos that break down complex economic concepts into engaging, bite-sized content. She’s also the author of In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work, an indispensable guide to the “mad math and terrible terminology” of economics. Join us as we explore her unique vibecession concept, discuss the impact of social media-driven market movements, examine the housing crisis through the lens of generational wealth transfer and zoning laws, and much more. As Kyla explains it, economics isn't just about numbers. It’s about the stories we tell and how they influence the world around us. For a fun, fascinating, and highly accessible look at the state of the economy today, don’t miss this conversation with one of the internet’s favorite financial educators! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:19) Kyla’s definition of economics, who the main players are, and how it's understood. (0:05:04) How "vibes" influence the economy and intersect with economic theory and reality. (0:07:07) Money, its impact on the economy, and whether GDP reflects economic health. (0:09:45) Ways that expectations about inflation affect vibes in the economy. (0:10:50) Kyla’s take on housing, what people get wrong about it, and renting versus owning. (0:15:16) Surprisingly simple reasons for the housing crisis in the US and beyond. (0:17:48) Key distinctions between financial markets, the economy, and the stock market. (0:20:53) The difference between investing, speculating, and gambling. (0:22:08) GameStop, meme stocks, and the power of social media. (0:24:43) Reasons that “new era” thinking is dangerous and where crypto went wrong. (0:29:49) How to know when we’re in a recession and what a “vibecession” is. (0:33:52) Why US national debt isn’t always bad and why the Federal Reserve exists. (0:39:43) Problems that can arise from strictly adhering to economic beliefs. (0:42:53) Ways that the economy is connected to the mental health of individuals. (0:45:10) The impact of social media and media business models on vibes. (0:48:45) Kyla’s biggest learnings from her work and ho
S2 E319 · Thu, August 22, 2024
The Ultimate RRSP vs. TFSA Showdown
Which account should you choose, a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) or a Tax-free savings account (TFSA)? This is one of the most common decisions that Canadians must make when it comes to investing, but it will also elicit some of the most passionate responses. RRSPs especially get a lot of undue skepticism, with some even labelling it as a scam. Today we take a deep dive into both of these savings accounts, exploring the downsides and benefits of each, and how to decide which account is right for you based on your savings goals. With the help of Conquest Planning, a specialized, in-depth modelling tool, we look at a range of scenarios incorporating different variables, like income and family size, and break down our analysis regarding the RRSP vs. TFSA decision for each scenario. We discuss key factors to consider, including the basic personal amount tax credit, which allows RRSPs to act as a tax flow-through, and the guaranteed income supplement (GIS), which can impact retirement planning. Our conversation also examines how to approach family size and longevity, as RRSPs become more advantageous with longer lifespans. Join us today to learn about the benefits and flexibility of each of these accounts, the surprising ways RRSPs often outperform TFSAs, and find out which one is right for you! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:20) An introduction to the RRSP vs. TFSA debate. (0:08:11) How we used the Conquest Planning tool and the scenarios we analyzed. (0:10:34) Taxation and contribution considerations and strategies for RRSPs and TFSAs. (0:20:11) An analysis of scenario one; $60,000 income and no children. (0:22:38) Basic personal amount tax credit; how it allows RRSPs to act as a tax flow-through. (0:27:20) The Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) and its impact on RRSP vs. TFSA analysis in different scenarios. (0:36:16) How GIS is tied to Old Age Security (OAS) payments. (0:41:12) An analysis of scenario two; a couple with two children, and the impact of the Canada Child Benefit on RRSP vs. TFSA contributions. (0:45:21) The impact of mortality and longevity on RRSP and TFSA in various scenarios. (0:47:01) Main takeaways from today’s scenarios and the advice our hosts would give to different clients regarding TFSAs and RRSPs. (0:50:50) Why RRSPs are of greater benefit if you live longer compared to TFSAs. (0:52:13) Our aftershow section: listener feedback, what Ben is working on regarding renting versus buying, the zombie apocalypse, and more. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — <a href= "https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/
Thu, August 15, 2024
Assia Billig: Is Canada Pension Plan (CPP) Sustainable?
If you’re in the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), then you won’t want to miss today’s conversation with Canada's Chief Actuary, Assia Billig. Assia’s knowledge of the CPP is extensive, having joined the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCA) in 2008, where she was involved in the preparation of statutory actuarial reports on the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security Program. She has served as Chief Actuary of the Government of Canada since 2019, and, before joining the OCA, she worked in private pension consulting. She is also a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries. Assia joins us today for a deep dive into the most common questions about the Canada Pension Plan, from the inner workings of its financial components to the quality of governance that drives it. Discover the world-leading topics she and her team investigate, the immense power and research behind their analysis, and why the CPP is set to be sustainable for the next 75 years. We also discuss the concerns some people have about the CPP’s longevity, before examining how the actuarial report on the sustainability of the CPP, conducted every three years, reliably addresses this. If today’s conversation with Canada’s chief actuary does not instill confidence and pride in Canada’s investment in our collective retirement, then we don’t know what will! Tune in, to hear all of Assia’s keen insights and discover why she is unequivocally the best person to talk about the sustainability of the CPP. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:18) Introducing today’s guest, Assia Billig and the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). (0:04:53) What the main function of the Office of the Chief Actuary is. (0:06:28) The independence of Assia’s office and the work that they do. (0:07:09) Unpacking the main purpose of the actuarial report on the Canada Pension Plan. (0:09:22) Changes that the report triggers to contribution or benefit rates. (0:13:04) Main revenue sources for the CPP and how base CPP benefit payments are funded. (0:14:56) Base CPP’s funded status and how funding differs for additional CPP. (0:20:32) The sustainability of base and additional CPP and how sustainability is measured. (0:23:22) Primary assumptions that go into sustainability analysis at the high level. (0:27:31) Estimating expected returns for assets managed by CPP investments. (0:30:37) The plan’s level of sensitivity to lower realized returns and other variables. (0:35:22) How lower overall economic growth and inequality affect the plan’s sustainability. (0:37:15) Measuring the impact of variables like climate change and other catastrophic events. (0:43:01) When the minimum contribution rate exceeds the current legislated contribution rate.<
S2 E317 · Thu, August 08, 2024
An Economist's Perspective on Capital Gains Taxes with Kevin Milligan
Today, we sit down with Professor Kevin Milligan to unpack the recent capital gain changes and the complexities of the Canadian tax system. Kevin Milligan is a Professor of Economics at the Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia. He holds positions as a Scholar-in-Residence at the C.D. Howe Institute and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. A two-time recipient of the Purvis Prize, Professor Milligan’s work is recognized for its significant contributions to Canadian economic policy. His research focuses on public and labour economics, particularly concerning the economics of children and the elderly, along with tax and labour market policy issues. In our conversation, we dive deep into capital gains tax, the progressivity of the tax system, and the distribution of tax burdens among different income groups. We explore the intricate details of who bears the burden of corporate taxes, the impact of recent capital gains changes, and the intriguing relationship between income and longevity in Canada. Professor Milligan also shares insights from his research on longevity and the implications of tax policies on economic behaviour. Join us and uncover the truths about Canada's tax system, capital gains changes, and their profound impacts on Canadians. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:07:20) Background about Professor Milligan and an outline of today’s topic. (0:10:10) Complexities behind tax policy and recent capital gains changes in Canada. (0:14:22) Distribution of tax rates in Canada and how progressive the tax system is. (0:20:12) Analysis of how the Canadian tax system is applied to the top 1% of earners. (0:22:28) The theory behind capital income and how it relates to personal income tax. (0:26:40) Explanation of tax integration and how income tax accounts for corporate taxes. (0:29:53) Impact of the capital gains tax changes and Canada’s overall tax progressivity. (0:40:55) How the new capital gains inclusion rate affects integration for incorporated business. (0:46:32) The interplay between corporate investment, capital taxation, and productivity. (0:54:11) Historical changes in tax rates and the shift of average tax rates over time. (0:57:14) His perspective on the increase of the capital gains inclusion rate in Canada. (0:58:35) Explore the correlation between income levels and longevity in Canada. (1:03:30) Geographic longevity differences and policy implications for longevity. (1:07:55) Implications of longevity trends on personal financial planning. (1:13:24) Takeaways from a past episode, an update on Mark’s book, and more. Links From Today’s Episode:
S2 E316 · Thu, August 01, 2024
Andrew Chen: "Is everything I was taught about cross-sectional asset pricing wrong?!"
Are you curious about the hidden factors driving your investment decisions? Today’s guest is Andrew Chen, a Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve Board who focuses on monetary policy and financial stability. Published in leading journals, his research informs key policy decisions and helps shape the Federal Reserve’s strategy for managing economic challenges effectively. In this episode, Andrew delves into the intricacies of meta-research and asset pricing, focusing on cross-sectional asset pricing predictors, replication, and out-of-sample performance in factor investing. We discuss the significance of open-source data and transparency, highlighting Andrew's creation of the Open Source Asset Pricing project, an indispensable and comprehensive dataset for asset pricing predictors. We also address the challenges of replicating financial studies, publication bias, data mining, and false discovery rates, with Andrew offering practical insights on how these factors impact financial research and investment decisions. For actionable insights that could refine your investment strategies and enhance your understanding of financial research, don’t miss this fascinating conversation! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:43) What an asset pricing factor is and how it differs from a predictor. (0:04:25) Three plausible explanations for why cross-sectional predictors exist. (0:05:45) Insight into Andrew’s Open Source Asset Pricing project and why it’s so important. (0:09:49) Where the results of his research diverge from other papers on the subject. (0:11:42) How the returns on anomalies in his data sample change post-publication. (0:12:33) Implications of this research for the “replication crisis” in cross-sectional asset pricing. (0:14:14) Challenges of false discovery rates, publication bias, and out-of-sample returns. (0:18:37) The effect of transaction costs on expected returns from factor investing. (0:22:02) Problems with estimating factor expected returns using historical data. (0:26:08) A big-picture view of the factors with the strongest investable expected returns. (0:29:12) The relative value of peer-reviewed factors with strong theoretical underpinnings. (0:35:13) Whether or not machine learning can be useful for asset pricing research. (0:37:39) Practical advice for using financial research to inform your investment decisions. (0:40:08) Andrew’s take on the current state of cross-sectional asset pricing. (0:42:58) The simple way that Andrew defines success for himself. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on Apple Podcasts — <a href= "https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational
S2 E315 · Thu, July 25, 2024
An Update from Avantis with Eduardo Repetto
During this episode, we welcome back Eduardo Repetto, Chief Investment Officer of Avantis Investors. In his leadership capacity, he directs research design and the implementation of strategies and oversees the investment team and marketing initiatives. Our conversation kicks off with Edoardo’s explanation of how Avantis systemizes active management before we dive into strategies for launching in Europe and beyond. He weighs in on the most significant capacity issues that people face today, offering solutions to tweak your approach. We touch on what makes Avantis strategies preferable for advisors and Eduardo shares his insights on the future of small-cap value strategies for emerging markets. We discuss short-term reversals, towing the line between growth and value and factors that should inform asset allocation before diving deeper into small-cap value in the US and Canada. Tune in today to hear more. Key Points From This Episode: (0:05:51) What sets Avantis Investors apart from other investment firms. (0:09:26) Five strategies for launching in Europe starting with free and equity UCITS. (0:14:00) Accessing UCITS and adapting strategies in accordance with currencies, geographical regulations and restrictions. (0:22:49) The most significant capacity issue: an inability to invest cashflows. (0:27:59) Feedback from the advisor community on why they are choosing Avantis strategies. (0:32:43) Eduardo’s view on the future potential for the emerging markets small cap value strategy. (0:35:58) Improvements and adaptations to portfolio implementation at Avantis since 2019. (0:39:01) The controversial nature of short-term reversals and advice for investors thinking about growth and value. (0:44:40) What should inform asset-allocation decision-making. (0:45:46) The potential of expanding into a Canadian base. (0:50:16) Mark’s thoughts on small-cap value in the US and Canada. Quotes: “We have to adapt to the regulatory framework. But the strategies are the same. We manage the strategies in the same way, with the same people, with the same philosophy.” — Eduardo Repetto (0:17:44) “Just expand the offering. Anywhere we go, we do the same because that's the right thing to do. That's the right thing to help people that trust you on day one.” — Eduardo Repetto (0:21:52) “So, if you think about our valuation, we are using today's profits as a proxy for future profits. Can you improve that proxy? Can you have something better to say, about not level, but changes in level?” — Eduardo Repetto (0:41:16) Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — <a href= "https://itunes.appl
S2 E314 · Thu, July 18, 2024
Professor Valentin Haddad: How Competitive is the Stock Market?
In this episode, we sit down with Professor Valentin Haddad to unpack the intricacies of market elasticity, passive investing, and the dynamic nature of financial markets. Valentin is an Associate Professor of Finance at UCLA Anderson School of Management and a research fellow for the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Asset Pricing Program. His research focuses on how financial institutions trade, and manage risk, and their impact on market prices and the broader economy. Notably, his work challenges traditional assumptions, such as the perceived safety of life insurance companies' investments in Treasuries. In our conversation, we delve into the impact of index funds on the market, stock market bubbles around the development of new technology, and the response of investment-grade corporate bonds to the COVID-19 crisis. Discover the definition of demand elasticity, strategic interaction, and how market elasticity has changed over time. Explore how he defines a market bubble, ways stock market bubbles are related to new technology, and how to measure the value of innovation. We also discuss the impact of COVID-19 on investment-grade corporate bonds, the Federal Reserve’s response, the implications for bond safety, and much more. Tune in and join us as we uncover the mess of the market with Professor Valentin Haddad! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:10) The impact of passive investing on financial markets, what investors’ demand elasticity is, and the role of index funds. (0:06:07) Learn about strategic interactions, their influence on financial markets, and how they react to rising passive investing. (0:10:10) Why active investors’ options are limited in a passive investment landscape and how demand elasticities influence asset prices. (0:13:05) How individual investor elasticities are related to aggregate market elasticity and the ways investor elasticity has changed. (0:20:54) Large and small stock elasticity trends, the implications of his research for asset prices, and the relationship between elasticity and information. (0:25:32) His opinion on a bubble in large stocks forming due to flows into index funds and how market bubbles drive innovation. (0:29:31) Potential measures to address the issues with index funds and how individual investors should be reacting to the situation. (0:34:46) Unpack how he defines a market bubble, measuring the value of innovation, and their effect on the value of technology. (0:42:29) What his research findings mean for innovation policy and what to consider before investing in innovative companies. (0:46:33) Insights from his paper examing the impact of COVID-19 on fixed-income and the different market reactions. (0:53:40) Explore the Fed’s intervention during the pande
S2 E313 · Thu, July 11, 2024
When Should You Hire a Financial Advisor?
Low-cost index funds and digital tools have revolutionized wealth-building, making it easier than ever before to manage your own investment portfolio. However, additional support and expert advice can be critical to help you reach your financial goals, especially when facing complex financial decisions, feeling overwhelmed, or deciding to change your investment strategy. Today on the Rational Reminder Podcast, we discuss when it makes sense to hire a full-service financial advisor, whether or not every investor needs one, and how professional guidance can enhance your financial outcomes. You’ll find out how delegating your financial decision-making can not only boost your wealth but also improve your wellbeing, increase your peace of mind, and mitigate the impact of cognitive decline on your financial decisions as you age, plus so much more. For valuable insights that could transform your financial future, tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: (0:02:15) Why you would hire a financial advisor when DIY investing is so easy. (0:06:35) The services that financial advisors offer and how you can benefit from them. (0:10:09) What investor inertia is, how to overcome it, and what the trade-offs are. (0:16:31) How delegating financial decision-making can improve wealth and wellbeing. (0:18:16) Insight into the value of financial advice for retirement planning. (0:22:17) Your Trusted Contact Person (TCP) and why they matter. (0:23:05) Ways that financial literacy shapes demand and expectations for financial advice. (0:24:21) Common reasons that people seek professional financial advice. (0:26:22) How financial advisors act as a commitment device for good financial behaviours. (0:27:47) Important considerations and questions to ask when hiring a financial advisor. (0:32:43) Our after-show observations, feedback, banter, updates, and more! Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — <a href= "mailto:info@rationalreminder.ca"
S2 E312 · Thu, July 04, 2024
Prof. John M. Griffin: Forensic Finance and the Power of Research
Discover the hidden underbelly of financial markets in today’s episode featuring Professor John M. Griffin, a leading forensic finance expert and the James A. Elkins Centennial Chair in Finance at McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin. Tuning in, you'll learn how forensic finance exposes illicit activities in crypto markets, revealing how entities like Tether (a cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar) facilitate scams and money laundering. We also delve into the disturbing world of pig butchering scams, which have stolen more than $75 billion from victims globally, and how the victims of these scams have helped John study the flow of illicit funds in crypto markets. Find out how John uncovered massive fraud in the Paycheck Protection Program during the COVID-19 pandemic, and how this exposed the central role of fintech lenders and social networks in spreading fraud. We also discuss the importance of rigorous academic research and its practical implications in uncovering financial fraud, emphasizing the need for robust oversight and transparency in both emerging and traditional financial systems. Tune in for a thought-provoking discussion that challenges established practices and calls for greater scrutiny in financial systems! Key Points From This Episode: (0:05:23) An overview of John’s research, the definition of forensic finance, and what sets forensic finance research apart from more traditional finance papers. (0:09:55) The economics of pig butchering scams and how the victims of these scams help John study the flow of illicit funds in crypto markets. (0:14:42) How crypto exchanges fail to monitor for potential scammer activity. (0:18:44) The role of so-called legitimate crypto exchanges in criminal activity; why Tether (a cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar) is the most important cryptocurrency in scam activity. (0:21:43) Unpacking the $75 billion figure in John and Kevin Mei’s paper on Pig Butchering and how it finances slavery; how this compares to fraud estimates from firms like Chainalysis. (0:26:25) How the methods in John and Kevin’s paper can be used to improve the monitoring of crypto exchanges, and how the crypto community has responded to their paper. (0:29:14) An overview of John’s paper on Tether with Amin Shams and how often fraud and misinformation are associated with asset price bubbles. (0:30:52) What Tether is, the difference between it being demand-driven or pulled, and supply-driven or pushed, and why Tether creators want to inflate the price of Bitcoin. (0:34:46) Decentralization in the crypto space and why decentralized finance is a misnomer, how to test whether Tether is pushed or pulled, and investigating Tether’s relationship to Bitcoin. (0:35:56) How to test whether Tether is pushed or pulled; investigating Tethe
S2 E311 · Thu, June 27, 2024
Is Roaring Kitty a Good Role Model?
When witnessing the dramatic payouts of miracle trades, it's easy to be lured into thinking that your big score is just a few trades away. But as is evident in trading options for retail investors, it is neither quick, simple, nor easy to make guaranteed returns on your investments. In today's episode, Ben and Cam walk us through the many reasons why trading options is a losers’ game; especially for retail investors. Trading options is definitely today's hot topic and we unpack how the recent resurfacing of Roaring Kitty affirms how life-changing payouts are the exception rather than the rule. We dive deeper into trading options and their uses, the trading demographics of the current market, why trading options are an expensive choice for retail investors, and why people still choose to trade even when doing so at a loss. To end, Ben and Cam highlight the dangers of being a copycat and how social media adds fuel to the fire and we hear some heartwarming Rational Reminder Podcast reviews from a few of our dedicated listeners. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:48) Why today's topic is widely discussed in the current financial climate. (0:03:34) What we can learn from the resurfacing of Roaring Kitty. (0:05:35) A brief background on stock options and their various uses and the current state of retail trading. (0:08:13) Understanding the trading demographics at play in today's markets. (0:10:24) Discussing why trading options are expensive for retail investors. (0:12:35) Why people keep trading despite losing on average. (0:16:16) Exploring the dangers of copying successful traders and the role of social media. (0:17:17) The after show, headlined by inspirational Rational Reminder Podcast reviews from you, our dear listeners. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.ca Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.ca Benjamin Felix — <a
S2 E310 · Thu, June 20, 2024
Professor Antoinette Schoar: Consumer Finance, Crypto, and Private Equity
There is a huge range of factors that can impact our investment decisions, whether we realize it or not, from our level of financial literacy to our political affiliations. This is borne out in research conducted by today’s guest Professor Antoinette Schoar, the Stewart C. Myers-Horn Family Professor of Finance at MIT Sloan. Today, Antoinette joins us to share her insights and challenge conventional wisdom on various topics from target date funds to cryptocurrencies. Tuning in, you’ll learn about the transformative impact of target date funds on investment behaviours and asset allocation, before delving into the subject of financial literacy and financial advisors. Antoinette also sheds light on the unique dynamics of crypto trading and breaks down why retail investors' strategies in crypto differ significantly from those in traditional markets. We also discuss the complexities of private equity and venture capital, focusing on why these asset classes might not be suitable for retail investors due to high barriers and risks. Our conversation also covers the critical role of regulation in maintaining market stability and protecting investors. Join us for a thought-provoking discussion that promises to deepen your understanding of financial markets and enhance your investment decisions! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:18) An introduction to today's guest, Antoinette Schoar, and her extensive research. (0:03:44) The rise of target date funds in the American retirement system: how it’s affected asset allocation and trading behaviour of retail investors. (0:09:39) The impact of target date funds: how they have affected mutual fund flows, arbitrage opportunities, market efficiency, the elasticity of aggregate demand, and trend-chasing anomalies. (0:16:48) The influence of individual beliefs, like political affiliation, on financial decision-making and portfolio adjustments, and how to counteract it. (0:21:54) Perceptions of risk in housing investments: how this affects the rent versus buy decision, what changes people’s housing risk perceptions, and how to make better housing decisions. (0:29:29) Findings from Antoinette’s study on financial advisors and their effectiveness at undoing bias in their prospective clients. (0:33:51) How investors' prior beliefs affect their receptiveness to receiving financial advice and why better financial literacy is essential. (0:41:38) What consumers need to know about advisor compensation structures and what they should look for when seeking out financial advice. (0:47:05) How Antoinette’s students motivated her to research cryptocurrency and teach it. (0:49:40) Antoinette’s insights on the applications of cryptocurrency and blockchain, and some of the surprising positive outcomes from the rise in c
S2 E309 · Thu, June 13, 2024
Are Robo-Advisors Passive Investors?
When robo-advisors first came onto the scene, they were pitched as an easy way to access index funds. These digital platforms provide algorithm-driven financial planning and investment services, with little to no human supervision, and typically use passive investment strategies. But while this technology has revolutionized access, not all robo-advisors are created equal. In today’s episode, Mark, Ben, and Cameron sit down to discuss the role of robo-advisors as passive investors, and the performance disparity in robo-advisor returns, as they investigate different robo-advisors, from Wealthsimple to Wealthfront. Next, in this week’s version of ‘Would you rather?’, we have robo-advisors pairing off against active bank mutual funds, with each of our hosts debating the pros and cons of these two approaches. For our aftershow section, we discuss listener feedback, interesting community discussions, Ben’s addiction to Excel, and much more. Tune in for a deep dive into robo-advisors and how to navigate this technology! Key Points From This Episode: (0:04:20) The history of robo-advisors and how they are used today. (0:08:30) Why there is such a marked dispersion among robo-advisor portfolios; an overview of Wealthsimple’s portfolios and the changes they’ve made over time. (0:16:00) Wealthsimple's investment returns, fees, and an attribution analysis. (0:24:19) Why Wealthfront pulled value out of their factor-tilted portfolios in 2022. (0:26:13) PWL’s investment approach and why no strategy is truly passive. (0:30:43) What the average investor needs to understand when using a robo-advisor. (0:32:02) Wealthsimple’s value proposition and why people are drawn to it. (0:33:33) Our ‘Would You Rather?’ Question: Would you rather put all your money with a robo-advisor or in a big bank actively managed mutual fund? (0:40:30) The growth of passive investing vs active management in the financial industry. (0:44:12) AI's impact on financial planning and an update on new calculators we’ve released. (0:52:38) Aftershow section: listener feedback, community discussions, leasing versus buying vehicles, Ben’s addiction to modelling, and more. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — <a href= "https://x.com/RationalRemi
S2 E308 · Thu, June 06, 2024
Episode 308 - Dan Bortolotti: The Canadian Couch Potato
When it comes to DIY investing, there’s always a temptation to make things more complicated than they need to be. But, in reality, embracing simplicity is one of the best ways to ensure good investment outcomes. Today’s episode features an exceptional conversation with our long-time friend and colleague, Dan Bortolotti, who has worked alongside us as an Portfolio Manager at PWL Capital for over ten years. Some of our Canadian listeners might recognize Dan as the man behind the Canadian Couch Potato blog (one of the most popular resources for Canadian investors) and the voice behind the Canadian Couch Potato podcast. Dan is a consummate communicator, both on paper and in person; beyond his extensive blogging, he has also written a number of books, both fiction and non-fiction, the most recent of which includes Reboot Your Portfolio: 9 Steps to Successful Investing with ETFs. Dan has played a pivotal role in making PWL Capital what it is today, and in this episode, we learn about his surprising journey to becoming an advisor, before hearing his wide-ranging insights on DIY investing. Dan breaks down key components for investors, from how to approach your asset allocation and picking index funds to navigating fees, taxes, and performance. We also discuss how the investing landscape has changed since Dan started writing and essential lessons he has learned over the years. To hear all about investing from the Canadian Couch Potato himself, be sure to tune in for this expansive conversation! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:52) The origin story of the Canadian Couch Potato blog, by Dan Bortolotti. (0:08:17) How the availability of index funds in Canada has changed since Dan started writing about them in 2010, and his role in the index fund revolution. (0:10:01) Why Canadians have been slower to adopt index funds than Americans. (0:12:09) How the model portfolios on his site have changed over time. (0:14:20) Why simplicity is so important to a good investment outcome. (0:16:38) The biggest obstacle Dan has observed when it comes to successful investing. (0:19:40) Advice on how to approach decisions around stocks, bonds, and asset allocation. (0:24:34) How to select the ideal ETF or index fund to express your asset allocation. (0:27:22) Some of the ways that Dan’s views have changed since starting the Couch Potato portfolio, and the evolution of his blog. (0:31:46) Why you should be clear on your financial goals before investing and the importance of saving rate relative to fees and performance. (0:37:32) Understanding the value of financial advice if we consider investing to be effectively solved by low-cost ETF mutual funds. (0:40:23) Why it’s so important to close the gap between providing a financial
S2 E307 · Thu, May 30, 2024
How Much Life Insurance Do You Need?
Are you confident about the amount of life insurance coverage you have? Are you maximizing your tax savings with the principal residence exemption? In this episode, we delve into life insurance and optimizing capital gains to answer these essential questions. In our conversation, we unpack the nuanced topic of life insurance, what people get wrong about it, and how to effectively calculate your life insurance policy needs. Using his own experience as the lens for the conversation, Mark shares how he calculated his life insurance and incorporated costs such as funeral cover, emergency funds, short-term expenses, and income replacement. Learn about using the safe withdrawal rate shortcut, free resources for calculating life insurance costs, and the best financial tools for getting the most out of your policy. He also delves into capital gains and how to use a lesser-known exemption to reduce the amount owed significantly. Mark walks listeners through how the principal residence exemption works and how it impacted the sale of his rental properties. Then, jumping to a brand new segment on the Rational Reminder Podcast, Ben introduces his financial decision-making iteration of the game of ‘Would you rather’. Finally, we share listener reviews and feedback on previous episodes and debate whether to lease or buy a car in our after-show segment. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:13) Mark explains how he and his wife calculated their life insurance needs. (0:06:55) Learn how to plan for income replacement and why it is so complicated. (0:12:10) Ben’s perspective on Mark’s approach to calculating his life insurance coverage. (0:13:54) Find out why there are differences between Ben and Mark’s calculations. (0:18:17) How Mark factored in retirement costs into his life insurance calculations. (0:22:30) Free resources and tips to accurately calculate your life insurance needs. (0:27:04) Why Mark considers whole life insurance as a separate asset class. (0:31:25) The principal residence exemption and how Mark applied it to his situation. (0:39:19) How we would choose to invest $1 billion in today’s market. (0:42:26) Would You Rather segment: only life insurance versus only disability insurance. (0:45:02) The exciting development of a tool for realizing capital gains in a corporation. (0:51:06) Trends in the awareness of corporate notional accounts and tax planning intricacies. (0:54:12) Listener reviews, episode feedback, and leasing a car instead of buying. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/pod
S2 E306 · Thu, May 23, 2024
Wei Dai: Fighting for Every Basis Point
Designing a robust portfolio requires considerable expertise, data, and experience. And while there are plenty of published articles that can guide how you build your portfolio, they are not investment solutions by themselves. Wei Dai is the Head of Investment Research and Vice President at Dimensional Fund Advisors, and she joins us today for a comprehensive and informative conversation on portfolio design for higher returns. Her background includes a Doctor of Philosophy degree in Statistics, Operations research, and Financial Engineering from Princeton. She has also earned a bachelor's degree in mathematics and applied mathematics from Zhejiang University. Her work has been published in multiple journals, including The Financial Analysts Journal. She has also collaborated on articles with esteemed figures such as Professor Robert C. Merton and Robert Novy-Marx. In our conversation with Wei, we explore the contents of these articles, key findings from research conducted by Dimensional Fund Advisors, and how they are implementing this knowledge in their portfolios. We discuss the fundamental aspects of portfolio design, like expected return, risk, and costs, with Wei providing a detailed breakdown of each subject. There’s a lot to be learned from today’s conversation, and while things get pretty technical, you are in very capable hands! Tune in for a fascinating dive into the latest research on portfolio design and much more. Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:37) The main risk premiums that Dimensional Fund Advisors target in their portfolios. (0:05:42) How long-term drivers of returns vary across different regions: an overview of the tests and outcomes they’ve seen at Dimensional Fund Advisors. (0:07:15) Unpacking whether the value premium differs from the profitability premium across regions; why it makes sense to be globally diversified. (0:08:57) Typical approaches to a multi-premium strategy in a portfolio: a rundown of the three approaches they take at Dimensional and the trade-offs between each. (0:13:44) How they evaluate portfolios at Dimenstional: the benefits of taking a holistic, integrated approach, and instances where that doesn’t make sense. (0:17:24) Weighting schemes: Dimensional’s approach to assigning individual security weights to achieve the desired level of exposure and how investments factor into weights. (0:26:46) Advice on how investors should decide whether to currency hedge their foreign asset exposures, and insights on how to approach currency hedging. (0:30:42) Premium timing: Why timing exposure to premiums is so tempting; parameters that must be defined to implement timing strategies; and which strategies worked in their research. (0:39:21) Valuation ratios: why it theoretically makes sense that they would be relate
S2 Enull · Thu, May 16, 2024
Is Private Credit Special?
Private credit is one of the fastest-growing asset classes, and today we take a closer look at why that is, and if it’s really worth the hype. When you invest in private credit, you are essentially lending money to borrowers who might have difficulty accessing loans elsewhere. While these assets may be profitable, they can also incur a lot of risk and typically come with illiquidity. It is traditionally traded among institutional and accredited investors, rather than retail investors, namely, non-professional investors. Since private credit has gained so much popularity in recent years, we use today’s conversation to unpack how private credit works, the role of private credit funds, the associated performance fees and risks, and what retail investors should know about this asset class before deciding to invest. Our conversation investigates one of the top reasons for private credit’s rise in popularity, namely risk-adjusted returns, before evaluating whether this is a worthwhile reason to invest, depending on who you are. Stay tuned for our after-show section where we discuss the proposed changes to the capital gains tax, why the death of value could be exaggerated, and more! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:18) Today’s main topic, private credit, and our upcoming webinar on May 22nd. (0:02:18) An introduction to private credit as an asset class. (0:05:33) Private credit funds: how they work, interest rates, performance fees, and valuations. (0:08:14) Who does valuations on private credit funds and related risks. (0:10:01) Unpacking the underlying risks of private credit and how investors are compensated. (0:11:02) Insights from the paper ‘Direct Lending Returns’ related to publicly listed business development companies (BDCs). (0:16:15) Takeaways from the paper ‘Risk Adjusting the Returns of Private Debt Funds’. (0:18:16) Private credit funds, equity exposure, how private credit gets misrepresented, and what investors need to know about high-fee investment products. (0:25:09) Illiquidity and what retail investors can expect from private credit. (0:30:15) Our aftershow segment, starting with the proposed changes to capital gains tax. (0:33:55) Ben’s conversation with David Chilton. (0:36:55) The value premium and why the death of value could be exaggerated. (0:40:45) Unpacking the heated response to our conversation with Scott Galloway. Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podca
S2 E304 · Thu, May 09, 2024
Budget 2024: The Capital Gains Inclusion Rate
The Canadian government has recently proposed significant changes to how capital gains are taxed, but how will this impact Canadians? In this episode, we delve into the proposed capital gains tax changes and their impact on financial planning. We unpack the definition of capital gains tax and the complexity of the proposed changes. Explore the historical trends of capital gains tax rates in Canada, how capital gains tax works, and who will be impacted by the proposed changes. We discuss the intricacies of the alternative minimum tax (AMT), its relevance to capital gains tax, and whether the old or new AMT rules apply to the upcoming changes. Gain insights into tax considerations for long-term investment strategies, the importance of tax diversification in mitigating risk, lifetime capital gains exemption, tax planning ramifications, and more! Although this episode is Canadian-focused, it offers many useful takeaways for non-Candaians as well. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the complexities surrounding capital gains tax and strategies to navigate the proposed changes effectively, tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) Introduction and outline of today’s topic: proposed capital gains tax changes. (0:03:07) Overview of the topic, what capital gains tax is, and the proposed changes. (0:08:10) Historical trends in capital gains tax rates in Canada. (0:10:59) Find out who will be impacted by the proposed changes. (0:14:45) Advice on how to plan for the proposed changes with an example. (0:17:13) Model results and we unpack the nuance of AMT (alternative minimum tax). (0:25:35) How the changes to AMT impact the proposed capital gains tax changes. (0:32:05) Whether the new or old AMT rules apply to the proposed capital gains changes. (0:34:27) Important tax considerations for long-term investment strategies. (0:36:30) Insights into why tax diversification is essential to reduce the tax rate risk. (0:39:25) Interesting budget proposals and their tax planning implications. (0:41:17) Our perspectives on the media response to the proposed tax changes. (0:45:40) After-show: listeners’ reviews, upcoming guests, an update on Mark’s book, and more. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ <p
S2 E303 · Thu, May 02, 2024
Scott Galloway: The Algebra of Wealth
What is the role of luck in financial success? And how can we make decisions that will put us in the best possible position to experience long-term prosperity? Joining us today to unpack these questions is Scott Galloway, a talented public speaker, author, entrepreneur, and professor of marketing at NYU Stern School of Business. His latest book, The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security, explores key lessons to help you optimize your life for wealth and success. He is the host of a thrice-weekly podcast, The Prof G Pod, and co-hosts a podcast called Pivot with esteemed tech journalist, Kara Swisher. Scott also has a very popular blog called No Mercy / No Malice, where he shares his thoughts on wealth, business, psychology, and more. In today’s conversation with Scott, we delve into the lessons he’s learned about economic success and the contents of his new book, The Algebra of Wealth. Tuning in you’ll learn how the economic stress he experienced as a child shaped his life, the important role that luck plays in financial success, and why he believes people should follow their talents rather than their passions. Scott goes on to expand on why diversification is essential for financial success before sharing key lessons from the various businesses he has started, built, and sold. We also discuss how he manages his financial worries, his hopes for his children, and how he defines success. Tune in to hear all of Scott’s valuable insights as we take a deep dive into the forces that shape our economic outcomes, and the algebra of wealth! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:18) Introducing today’s guest, Professor Scott Galloway. (0:05:43) Unpacking the title of his book The Algebra of Wealth, and what it refers to. (0:10:39) The pursuit of wealth as a whole-person project and why balance is rarely possible. (0:13:38) How stoicism can help you spend wisely and resist temptations. (0:19:23) The difference between working hard and having character when it comes to wealth. (0:22:20) Why it’s so important to acknowledge the role of luck in economic success; how Scott’s awareness of luck impacted his financial decisions and made him diversify. (0:30:41) The concept of having enough, why people always want more, the benefits of giving back, and the role that luck has played in Scott’s wealth. (0:35:31) Why Scott believes people should follow their talents, rather than their passion. (0:39:31) Scott’s thoughts on the work-from-home trend and why he is a big proponent of an office environment and in-person work for young people. (0:41:23) The key ways that physical exercise contributes to financial success. (0:44:37) Scott’s thoughts on financial planners, how to take advantage of technology and low-cost EFTs t
S2 E302 · Thu, April 25, 2024
Michael Green: Market Efficiency Is Not The Question
With a wealth of experience as a market theoretician and a prolific contributor to financial discourse, today’s guest is uniquely positioned to guide us through the complexities of index fund dynamics. Joining us to discuss the problems that passive investing may be causing in financial markets (and what people should do about it) is Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management. Tuning in, you’ll learn about the ramifications of the surging popularity of indexing and the sobering reality of mounting market inelasticity, backed by compelling evidence that underscores the challenges facing today's financial landscape. The insights in this episode extend beyond mere observation, with Mike offering policy recommendations and strategies to address the structural issues affecting our markets. While this conversation is certainly challenging, philosophical, and even alarming, it isn't purely theoretical. It’s a call to action to safeguard the integrity of our financial systems. So, be sure to join us as we navigate the nuances of indexing and passive investing at large, guided by the expertise and foresight of one of finance's most respected voices! Key Points From This Episode: (0:05:48) The negative effect that the growth of indexing is having on financial markets. (0:07:37) Insight into the XIV trade that strengthened Mike’s belief in this view. (0:13:49) Defining the problem that indexing is causing (which might seem like a good thing). (0:15:57) How market cap-weighted index funds differ from closet index funds. (0:16:57) Indications that markets are becoming increasingly inelastic over time. (0:19:21) Why flows into cap-weighted index funds differ from the overall aggregate of active. (0:24:21) Active versus passive investing in public versus non-public markets. (0:25:57) The catastrophic event that could be caused by index funds (and how to avoid it). (0:30:51) Why we need to rethink the definition of passive investing and the value of diversity. (0:36:10) Market inelasticity versus inefficiency and the impact of active manager performance. (0:41:38) How investors should shift their strategy to respond to the current market structure. (0:53:01) Regulatory recommendations: who actually needs to step up and do something. (0:54:30) Mike’s outlook on US expected returns, market volatility, and 401(k)s. (1:01:50) Why Bitcoin isn’t the solution to all of our monetary and fiscal policy problems. (1:05:22) The definition of success in Mike’s life (and why it’s completely non-financial). Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — <a href= "https://itunes
S2 E301 · Thu, April 18, 2024
Optimal Government Pension Claiming, and Life Well-Being w/ Prof. Meir Statman
In this episode, we delve into the best time to claim your Canada Pension Plan (CPP) benefits. Although the focus of this episode is on Canada, there will be many relevant and valuable insights for our non-Canadian listeners. In our conversation, we discuss the importance of understanding the intricacies of CPP benefits, the fundamentals, and how individuals can optimize their retirement income by making informed decisions. Explore the importance of understanding when to claim CPP benefits, how much future financial security a CPP offers, and why the CPP is one of the most valuable retirement assets for most Canadians. Gain insights into how wage growth ties into CPP benefits, the exceptions to deferring a CPP claim, and what made 2022 different regarding CPP claims. Join us as we uncover the nuances of CPP benefits! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:25) Unpack the fundamentals of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) benefits. (0:10:04) How the timing of making a CPP claim is linked to the benefits. (0:14:15) Ben explains the financial implications of deferring a CPP claim. (0:21:34) Uncover common approaches to identify the best time to claim a CPP. (0:26:06) Learn about the situations when it is best not to defer a CPP claim. (0:31:12) Why the CPP is one of the most valuable retirement assets for most Canadians. (0:39:11) The after-show: ideas for the podcast, feedback, segregated funds, and more! Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.ca Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Ca
Bonus · Thu, April 18, 2024
Bonus Episode - Prof. Meir Statman: A Wealth of Well-Being
Today, we welcome back Prof. Meir Statman to talk about the role of finances in well-being. We investigate the role of finances in well-being with Prof. Meir Statman through the lens of his new book, A Wealth of Well-Being. Discover why wealth advisors must evolve into well-being advisors and uncover the impact of finances on various life domains. From dating to education, we discuss the profound financial correlations shaping happiness and well-being. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:15) Introduction to returning guest, Prof. Meir Statman. (0:02:15) How well-being fits into the study of behavioural finance. (0:06:52) Discover the role of finances in different domains of life well-being. (0:10:42) Hear why wealth advisors need to change to being well-being advisors. (0:14:59) Explore the relationship between finances, social status, and overall well-being. (0:19:46) Whether too much self-control in spending can be a problem. (0:22:46) The effect of finances on dating and marriage and how work plays into well-being. (0:26:42) Find out how education fits into well-being and why it is a major regret for people. (0:32:36) Gain insights into how religion and faith can enhance well-being. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.ca Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ B
S2 E300 · Thu, April 11, 2024
Abby Sussman: Financial Judgment and Decision Making
In this episode, we are joined by renowned expert Abby Sussman to unpack how individuals form judgments and make decisions about their finances. Abby is a distinguished professor of marketing at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business whose expertise lies at the intersection of psychology, economics, and finance. In our conversation, we discuss the nuances of financial decision-making and how personal beliefs influence our financial choices. Discover the source of reference points for financial well-being and how expense prediction biases play a role in making poor financial decisions. We explore the effectiveness of budgeting, the nuances of product sensitivity, and the drivers of excessive consumer consumption. Gain insights into navigating the complexities of financial decision-making, the psychology behind it, how AI can help you make better financial decisions, and much more. Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of the psychology behind financial decisions and uncover strategies to optimize your financial future with Abby Sussman! Key Points From This Episode: (0:04:45) Explore the difference in how we perceive others' wealth versus our own. (0:08:25) Drivers of the differences in perception and their impact on financial decision-making. (0:11:43) Steps to reduce excessive consumption and how personal future wealth perceptions influence financial decision-making. (0:16:58) Discover the source of the reference point people use when considering their wealth. (0:18:53) How to make better financial decisions and the role of peoples’ expectations. (0:20:20) Unpack expense prediction bias and the problems it creates. (0:22:55) Methods used to predict expenses and what people typically budget for. (0:29:00) Pragmatic advice for reducing the influence of expense prediction bias. (0:31:53) Whether prediction bias manifests in long-term planning, such as retirement. (0:33:14) Find out if setting a budget is common practice and how it impacts financial health. (0:37:36) Trends in actual spending in relation to expenses budgeted for. (0:39:31) She explains how people categorize expenses and react to insufficient funds. (0:42:40) Product sensitivity and how attitudes toward investment products vary. (0:48:21) Interventions to help people choose better financial products. (0:49:40) Areas of research she is most interested in and her opinion on the role of AI. (0:55:54) Abby shares her definition of success. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — <a
S2 E299 · Thu, April 04, 2024
The Most Important Lessons in Investing
In this episode, we unpack key tenants of investing and the quality of financial advice in Canada's banking industry. In our conversation, we present a list of lessons we have learned about investing, which has been consolidated from contributions by the Twitter community and the Rational Reminder Community. In our conversation, we discuss ways to beat the market, how narratives can impact the economy, and why timing the market is a bad investment approach. Discover why performance chasing is not a successful strategy, why incentives matter, and why economic growth is a poor predictor of investment success. Learn about the nuanced relationship between expected economic growth and stock returns, why wealth does not give you access to market-beating investments, and the effectiveness of investing in low-cost total market index funds. Finally, in our after-show segment, we delve into the quality of financial advice provided by Canada's six big banks, investment strategies, listener reviews, and much more. Gain valuable insights into navigating the complexities of investing and learn why simplicity, discipline, and skepticism towards overly complex or costly strategies are vital for financial success. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) Introduction and outline of today’s topic: The Most Important Lessons in Investing. (0:04:55) Why you cannot outsmart the markets and what it takes to beat the market. (0:07:47) The notion that "this time is always different" during times of financial upheaval. (0:10:45) Explore the forward-looking nature of markets and their impact on decision-making. (0:12:08) Unpack the unreliability of market forecasts for making investment decisions. (0:14:48) Hear why time in the market beats timing the market. (0:16:11) Important aspects of funds and why investors should not chase portfolio performance. (0:19:20) Learn about the role of incentives in the distribution of financial information. (0:25:09) Common misconceptions about the link between economic growth and stock returns. (0:27:28) We discuss the importance of good financial planning over portfolio management. (0:30:51) Uncover the relationship between risk and expected returns in financial markets. (0:32:33) How the risk-return relationship changes over different time horizons. (0:34:59) Why fees and taxes matter and the nuances of permanent insurance. (0:41:55) Find out why there is no such thing as a perfect investment strategy. (0:44:51) Tailoring your investment portfolio to meet your goals and sticking to it. (0:46:48) Investigate why there is no such thing as a passive investment. (0:50:59) Understanding why wealt
S2 E298 · Thu, March 28, 2024
Randall Stutman: Admired Leadership for Financial Decision-Making
Dr. Randall Stutman is an author, highly sought-after speaker, and executive leadership coach to some of the world’s most exceptional CEOs, billionaires, and hedge fund managers. As the founder of the Admired Leadership Institute, he is widely recognized as a world-class authority on leadership strategy and style. Today, Dr. Stutman joins us to discuss the behaviours and skills that make admired leaders and how you can translate those characteristics and strategies into your financial decision-making process. Tuning in, you’ll learn about the importance of followership, find out why admired leadership is so rare, and hear some practical advice to help you make better decisions. We also discuss why you should actually disagree with your clients more often, why relationships are the cornerstone of any business, questions to ask yourself to find the right client or financial advisor, and much more. Don’t miss this fascinating and broad-reaching conversation on leadership and decision-making with specific applications for financial advice relationships! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:36) A typical approach to leadership development (and why it doesn’t work). (0:07:21) The two key qualities or characteristics of an admired leader. (0:09:23) Benefits of followership to create change and implement decisions. (0:10:28) A simple definition of leadership and why not everyone can be an admired leader. (0:13:08) Why great leaders and great organizations are values-driven. (0:16:15) Ways that consensus decision-making can hurt or strengthen an organization. (0:23:02) Other shortcomings in the decision-making process and how to avoid them. (0:27:29) Practical advice for financial advisors to become admired leaders. (0:32:33) Why checklists should never be the focus of a conversation or relationship. (0:33:52) Traits of admired leaders that financial consumers can emulate. (0:35:55) The best way for a couple to reach agreed-upon financial goals. (0:37:29) Tips for financial advisors to give better feedback and maintain relationships. (0:44:30) What a successful relationship with a financial advisor looks like. (0:46:07) How to avoid outcome bias for people who have been successful in the past. (0:48:00) Rapid-fire time management strategies, hallmarks of effective meetings, what’s missing in virtual communication, what motivates people, and more. (0:55:46) A very important metric by which Dr. Stutman defines success. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcas
S2 E297 · Thu, March 21, 2024
Do Stocks Return 10-12% On Average? & Zero to Millionaire with Nicolas Bérubé
As human beings, our brains are wired to solve problems. This can make long-term investment strategies, like passive investing, surprisingly challenging, especially if you’re not accustomed to the ups and downs of the market – it can feel pretty unintuitive to stay the course when your instinct is to take more active steps to solve the problem! So, how can investors remain firm in their strategy and not get spooked by market changes? Joining us today to unpack this question is financial journalist, Nicolas Bérubé, whose new book From Zero to Millionaire: A Simple and Stress-Free Way to Invest in the Stock Market serves as a guide to investors on how to grow their wealth and achieve good portfolio diversification at a low cost. We talk with him about the contents of his book, his observations on financial media and its effect on investors, how to stay committed when making long-term investments, and more. We also spend the top half of the show discussing a popular idea we’ve seen posted by influencers online, namely that investing in stocks will give you a return of 10% or more per year on average, and the flaws in their arguments. Tune in for a deep dive into investor psychology, financial media, and much more! Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:42) A breakdown of the flaws in the trending online theory being posted by influencers claiming that investing in stocks will give you a return of 10% or more per year on average. (0:09:17) Taking a longer-term view of the US stock market (and other global markets), how it’s changed in the past 100 years, and what this means for investors today. (0:16:12) Relevant findings from various papers on US and global stock market returns, US stock market valuations, performance, the impact of survivorship bias, and more. (0:27:01) Why it can be so difficult to capture market return as an investor, and a breakdown of how best to approach historical data. (0:33:33) Talking with Nicolas Bérubé about what he learned from his failed options trade before he started studying markets and the research that helped him become a market optimist. (0:38:24) An overview of Indo-American investor, Mohnish Pabrai, and what Nicolas learned from meeting him. (0:41:05) Unpacking the difference between investing in the stock market and playing in the stock market and the importance of having an infinite vision when investing. (0:44:52) How Nicolas would explain the benefits of index funds and index investing to a novice and why behaviour is the number one obstacle to investor outcomes. (0:48:29) The effect of financial media on investors from Nicolas’s perspective as a journalist. (0:51:52) Advice on whether to delegate your investment actions to a financial professional or do it yourself ie. automatic transfers using a robo advisor. (0:56:14) What people should be looking for if they do seek out financial advice and Nic
S2 E296 · Thu, March 14, 2024
Adam Alter: The Anatomy of a Breakthrough
Feeling stuck is a common human experience and almost all of us will go through it at some point in our lives. Whether it’s relationship struggles, dissatisfaction with work, an inability to progress financially, or a pending midlife crisis, all of these situations can bring up a range of mixed emotions like anxiety, fear, anger, and even numbness. We are joined today by Adam Alter, whose new book Anatomy of a Breakthrough: How to Get Unstuck When It Matters Most serves as a much-needed guide to help readers escape inertia and flourish in the face of freedom. Adam is a professor of marketing at New York University's Stern School of Business with an affiliated appointment in the New York University Psychology Department. His research is primarily focused on judgment, decision-making, and social psychology, and his two previous books, Irresistible and Drunk Tank Pink, are both highly acclaimed New York Times best-sellers. In today’s episode, we talk with Adam about the concept behind Anatomy of a Breakthrough, the many forms that feeling stuck can take, and what he has learned about getting unstuck. Tuning in you’ll learn about the fundamentals of goal-setting, why striving for excellence is infinitely more sustainable than settling for nothing less than perfection, and how learning to enjoy the journey will help you find meaning and avoid the aimlessness that can come after achieving your goal. We also get into the nature of breakthroughs, the role of luck and creativity, plus a whole lot more. To hear all of Adam’s thought-provoking insights and practical advice on getting unstuck, be sure to tune in! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:18) Introducing today’s guest, Adam Alter, and the concept behind his new book Anatomy of a Breakthrough. (0:05:41) An overview of the many ways that you can be financially stuck, the role of financial advisors, and when you should seek out help and guidance. (0:09:04) Insight into the different types of stuckness and how to recognize when you’re stuck. (0:12:42) Why people tend to question their lives with the arrival of a new decade. (0:17:10) Unpacking the risks and benefits of major life decisions and the concept of lifequakes. (0:20:25) The boundless nature of goal-setting and how it impacts the search for contentment. (0:23:27) How lifequakes influence the search for contentment and how to prepare for them. (0:26:00) What a breakthrough looks like, how it interacts with creativity, and the role of luck. (0:35:17) A breakdown of the random impact rule; particularly in the context of careers. (0:38:01) One key practical difference between striving for excellence versus perfection. (0:40:05) The originality trap: why trying to do something completely new can cause paralysis. (0:43
S2 E294 · Thu, March 07, 2024
Home Country Bias, Seg Funds, and Todd Rogers on Writing for Busy Readers
In this episode, we explore the intricate world of home-country bias in investment decision-making and learn the secret sauce to effective communication and writing. We start by discussing the definition and influence of home-country bias and explore why investors tend to overweight their portfolios with domestic equities despite global opportunities. We dissect the home bias puzzle, the rationality behind bias, and the conditions under which home-country bias makes sense. Then, Mark McGrath joins us to unpack the complexities of segregated funds and why it might not be the investment product you were hoping for. Following that, we sit down with Todd Rogers, a prominent behavioural scientist and professor, to discover the science behind effective communication. He explains how we adapt to different communication styles and techniques over time, the foundations of effective communication, and much more. Be sure to tune in as we unravel the complexities of investing, navigate the world of behavioural science, and bring you the tools you need for financial success! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) Episode introduction and what listeners can expect. (0:01:30) Definition of home-country bias and its influence on investors. (0:04:25) Unpack the home bias puzzle and Canadian home bias trends. (0:08:27) Discover the conditions when home bias may make sense. (0:13:10) Relative economic standing: an important aspect of home-country bias. (0:15:00) Explore home-country bias through a quantitative lens. (0:20:28) Common concerns of overweighting a small market cap. (0:27:21) Mark to Market: the good, bad, and complicated side of segregated funds. (0:31:24) Dissect the proposed benefits of segregated funds. (0:39:07) Discover the drawbacks and pitfalls of segregated funds. (0:44:05) Alternatives to segregated funds and Mark’s main takeaways. (0:46:50) Highlights from our conversation with Professor Vanessa Bohns. (0:49:38) Introducing today’sguest Todd Rogers, behavioural scientist and professor. (0:51:37) Learn about the science behind effective writing and communication. (0:53:48) Thedecision-making process when receiving new information. (0:56:18) Todd shares thesix principles of effective writing. (0:58:28) When to send a message, why less is more, and tips for effectively communicating. (1:06:32) Advice for using emojis and hyperlinks and the impact of bolding and highlighting. (1:12:35) The impact of AI on effective writing and the importance of good writing. (1:19:45) Final takeaways, book recommendations, listener reviews, and more! <
S2 E294 · Thu, February 29, 2024
Dan Harris: 10% Happier
In this episode, we delve into the world of mindfulness and meditation with renowned author and meditation advocate, Dan Harris. In our conversation, Dan shares his personal journey from a high-stress career in the news to discovering the transformative power of mindfulness meditation. We explore Dan's best-selling book, 10% Happier which chronicles his exploration into mindfulness practices after experiencing a panic attack on live television. We discuss how Dan's quest for inner peace led him to explore meditation, the core principles of Dan's 10% Happier philosophy, and how mindfulness can lead to incremental but significant improvements in happiness. Discover why Buddhism is a religion that skeptics can line up behind, the intersection of mindfulness and financial decision-making, and the importance of empathy and self-awareness for financial advisors. Gain insights into applying mindfulness principles to everyday life, strategies for building the skill of happiness, the basic steps to start meditating, and much more! Join us on this insightful journey as we explore how mindfulness can truly transform lives and empower individuals to live with greater purpose, happiness, and fulfillment with Dan Harris! Key Points From This Episode: (0:04:49) Dan shares his journey from a high-stress career in news to discovering mindfulness meditation. (0:06:48) What mediation is, why he initially thought it was nonsense, and why he changed his mind. (0:09:11) Unpack the idea of mindfulness and the science that backs up the claims. (0:11:22) The main thesis of Buddhism and its link to meditation. (0:14:02) How mindfulness can help manage emotions, improve focus, and enhance relationships in everyday life. (0:15:48) He shares how difficult it was for him to embrace the concept of meditation. (0:21:12) Discover what motivated him to explore meditation and mindfulness practices. (0:21:12) Recommendations to start meditating and how long it takes to form a habit of it. (0:26:56) Insights on applying mindfulness principles to financial decision-making. (0:28:29) Explore the benefits of meditation for the comparing mind and the wanting mind. (0:30:59) How mindfulness meditation has influenced his financial decision-making. (0:33:20) The principles of 10% Happier from the perspectives of a client and advisor. (0:35:45) Strategies for making your own happiness and cultivating contentment. (0:41:03) Transitioning from a career in news to focusing on mindfulness advocacy and podcasting. (0:42:32) His biggest lessons since writing the book and his most influential podcast guest. (0:48:26) Hear about Dan’s version of success and happiness. Link
S2 E293 · Thu, February 22, 2024
Eric Balchunas: Spot Bitcoin ETFs
After a year and a half hiatus from discussing Bitcoin, we felt compelled to explore the implications of the US Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs for trading. In this episode, we dive into the recent news surrounding Bitcoin and its entry into the mainstream investment landscape through spot Bitcoin ETFs. To help us unpack this topic is Eric Balchunas, a seasoned ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and host of the Trillions Podcast. Eric brings a wealth of knowledge on ETFs and offers valuable insights into the intersection between traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency space. Join us as we discuss the implications of Bitcoin ETFs trading on regulated exchanges and the impact on its overall anti-establishment identity, the intricacies of approved cash creation and redemption limitations, what Bitcoin ETFs are backed by, the transparency and potential vulnerabilities of Bitwise, and the complexities of navigating anti-money laundering aspects within Bitcoin transactions. You’ll learn how financial advisors are likely to leverage spot Bitcoin ETFs, who stands to benefit the most from Bitcoin ETFs, the broader implications for the investment landscape, why Bitcoin is like Tabasco sauce, and more! Tune in for a captivating exploration of Bitcoin's journey into the mainstream investment arena, with Eric Balchunas. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04:29) Reasons that Canada officially embraced Bitcoin sooner than the USA. (0:05:55) Why spot Bitcoin ETFs took longer to be approved by the SEC than futures ETFs. (0:07:54) Which ETF regulations have changed to allow a spot Bitcoin ETF. (0:09:42) Approved cash creation and redemption limitations. (0:12:46) What spot Bitcoin EFTs are backed by. (0:17:15) Bitwise: how it demonstrates transparency and the potential for sabotage. (0:19:38) How authorized participants will deal with anti-money laundering aspects of Bitcoin transactions. (0:21:31) How spot Bitcoin ETFs have been trading relative to their net asset value. (0:22:42) The amount of value flowing into Bitcoin ETFs. (0:27:23) Differentiating Newborn Nine ETFs from one another. (0:31:57) Benefits of Bitcoin being made available through an ETF. (0:34:21) The impact spot Bitcoin ETFs have had on Bitcoin's identity. (0:38:04) Who has benefited the most from the adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs. (0:40:36) Comparing spot ETFs starting trade to what was predicted by crypto enthusiasts. (0:44:36) Vanguard's decision to not allow the spot Bitcoin ETFs on their platform. (0:48:19)How financial advisors will leverage spot Bitcoin ETFs.
S2 E292 · Thu, February 15, 2024
Rob Copeland: Ray Dalio and Bridgewater
In this episode, we welcome Rob Copeland, author of the recently released book The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, and the Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend. Rob, a finance reporter for The New York Times, provides a gripping account of the rise and unravelling of Ray Dalio and Bridgewater Associates. Bridgewater Associates, one of the prominent hedge funds on the planet, is synonymous with the legendary investor Ray Dalio. In our conversation, we delve into the intricacies of the company's investment portfolio, shedding light on the details that contribute to its success, and dissect Ray's supposedly revolutionary model of economic cycles. Discover the unconventional principles that shape Bridgewater's culture, from believability to radical transparency, and get a sneak peek into the bizarre Dot Collector app that fuels the company's operations. Gain insights into employee experiences at the company, the secret sauce to Ray’s success, the company’s track record in predicting market crashes, undisclosed aspects of Ray’s success story, and much more! Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: Details about the company’s investment management portfolio. (0:06:38) Dalio's model of economic cycles’ influence on the company’s investment approach. (0:09:13) Exploring the criticism toward Dalio's model of economic cycles. (0:10:13) How successful Dalio has been at predicting market crashes. (0:12:21) Bridgewater’s investment success track record. (0:14:40) Unpacking Dalio's principles and how he developed them. (0:16:16) Uncovering how Dalio's principles are perceived within Bridgewater and how they made the company successful. (0:18:56) Learn how believability and radical transparency work within Bridgewater. (0:20:58) The bizarre Dot Collector app and how the company leverages it. (0:24:57) Employees’ experiences of working at Bridgewater. (0:28:02) Rob’s opinion about Ray and how he compares to other hedge fund managers. (0:29:38) Hear about undisclosed aspects of Ray's success story. (0:34:52) Dalio and readers’ reactions since publishing the book. (0:37:17) Delving into the nuance factors explaining Bridgewater's success as a business. (0:40:18) How the company will continue to function post-Ray Dalio. (0:43:06) What Rob hopes readers will take away after reading the book. (0
S2 E291 · Thu, February 08, 2024
The Quant Winter, and is Canada Pension Plan a Scam?
Are you ready for a deep dive into quantitative investing, the private credit trend, and the Canada Pension Plan (CPP)? Then this episode is for you! Joining us today is Robin Wigglesworth, The Financial Times’ global finance correspondent, and author of Trillions: How a Band of Wall Street Renegades Invented the Index Fund and Changed Finance Forever , a groundbreaking book about the past, present, and future of passive investing. We talk with Robin about quantitative investing and the ideas he lays out in his article ‘A Quant Winter’s Tale’, before hearing his insights on the private credit trend and his intriguing new book titled Bonds , all about the history of the bond market. Today’s episode also features our Mark to Market segment, where Mark McGrath joins us to talk about the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), providing a comprehensive overview of its inner workings, his response to the criticisms levelled against it, and why he believes it’s of huge benefit to a great many Canadians. Next, we take a look back at our conversation with Alexandra Macqueen on annuities before sharing our thoughts on its relevance to today’s discussion and why it’s worth revisiting. Be sure to stay tuned for our after-show segment where we share our book, blog, and viewing recommendations, plus our favourite reviews, followed by a sneak peek of some of the exciting guests we have coming up. Press play now for a deep dive into quant investing, the hype around private credit, saving for retirement, and a whole lot more! Key Points From This Episode: An introduction to today’s guest, Robin Wigglesworth, followed by his breakdown of quantitative investing. (0:04:05) Theories on what happened to factor investing between 2018 and 2020; what is meant by the quant winter and why we are now in a quant summer. (0:09:59) How investor sentiment regarding factor investing changed after the quant winter and how the algorithm aversion phenomenon impacted it. (0:15:13) The collapse of value; the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (plus its role in the quant winter), and where we are right now. (0:20:14) An overview of quant investing products, and why many of them are too expensive. (0:23:24) Breaking down the noisy-ness in factor data and Robin’s predictions for where factor investing will go from here. (0:25:51) Unpacking the hype around private credit: indications that it’s in a bubble, how it could impact broader trends, and who stands to benefit most. (0:36:36) We hear about the fascinating book that Robin is currently working on about the history of the bond market. (0:40:22) Our Mark to Market segment on the complicated (and divisive) Canada Pension Plan (CPP); how it works, its profound benefits, and responding to the criticism it has received. (0:41:50) A look back at our conversation with Alexandra Macqueen on annuities and how it links in
S2 E290 · Thu, February 01, 2024
Morgan Housel: Same as Ever
In this episode, we are joined, for the third time, by renowned author and commentator Morgan Housel. Many of you are familiar with Morgan's bestseller, The Psychology of Money , and he is back to discuss his latest book, Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes . He is also the partner at The Collaboration Fund, a network of fund managers investing across asset classes while identifying and supporting companies at the intersection of for-profit and for-good. In our conversation, we delve into the timeless principles that shape our perspectives of the world and why things are the Same as Ever. We discuss the importance of holding cash, challenging traditional analytical approaches and encouraging a broader reflection on life beyond numbers. Discover the recurrent nature of once-in-a-lifetime events, the pitfalls associated with the insatiable desire for certainty, the value and power of storytelling, and the complex interplay between incentives and expectations. Gain insights into the value of forecasting behaviours instead of market dynamics, why pessimism is more common and more captivating than optimism, embracing slight inefficiencies on the path to success, and much more! Don't miss this engaging discussion with a master storyteller and gain new perspectives on finance, human behaviour, and the principles that remain the Same as Ever with Morgan Housel. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:28) Why it is important to understand the aspects that never change, with examples. (0:05:58) Morgan explains the value of random and seemingly inconsequential events. (0:07:43) Discover the most persistent characteristic of risk and the ways expectations impact behaviour and decision-making. (0:13:04) How he has been dealing with the success of his book, Psychology of Money . (0:15:11) What makes once-in-a-lifetime events more common than expected and the problems that a desire for certainty brings with it. (0:19:16) Leveraging storytelling to understand the world and how to filter out the good information from the bad information. (0:25:41) Explore the role of incentives in influencing expectations and how calm can turn into crazy. (0:31:06) Learn how success can develop into failure and the problems that stem from investors trying to squeeze too much too soon from their investments. (0:37:13) Advice for understanding the normal ‘growth rate’ and what motivates innovation. (0:42:29) Balancing stress and adversity and why being slightly inefficient is a good thing. (0:46:46) Navigating hassle and nonsense on the path to success. (0:48:30) The time scale differences in materializing good news and bad news. (0:50:31) Strategies for combining optimism and pessimism to make informed and effective long-term decisions. (0:53:03) Examine the challenges of predicting the impact of
S2 E289 · Thu, January 25, 2024
Retiring Retirement Income Myths with the Retirement Income Dream Team
Does the 4% rule still work? In this episode, we welcome three esteemed experts to counter a recent controversial claim made on the Dave Ramsey Show regarding the validity of the 4% rule in retirement planning. Joining us is David Blanchett; the Managing Director and Head of Retirement Research for PGIM DC Solutions, Michael Finke; a distinguished professor of wealth management at the American College of Financial Services, and Wade Pfau; Director of Retirement Research at McLean Asset Management. In our conversation, these experts shed light on the intricate world of retirement income planning, dispelling misconceptions and advocating for a more nuanced approach. Discover the flaws in Ramsey's assertion and explore the dynamics of sequence of return risk in retirement planning. Unpack the complexities of investing in bonds for retirees and the evolving risk profiles of stocks over varying investment horizons. We also uncover the significance of variable spending rates, debunk the fallacies behind aggressive withdrawal suggestions, a safety-first approach in retirement finance, and much more. Tune in for an enlightening journey through retirement planning and equip yourself with expert insights to pave a secure path for your financial future! Key Points From This Episode: The motivation for addressing Dave Ramsey’s 8% retirement spending rate claim. (0:07:26) Unpack the holes in Dave Ramsey’s 8% claim. (0:09:48) How important sequence of return risk is for retirement planning. (0:15:08) Discover if investing in bonds is risky for a retiree. (0:17:57) Learn how the risk of holding stocks changes for longer versus shorter investment horizons. (0:21:55) Subjective risk tolerance and how it is influenced by market fluctuations. (0:24:04) Going all-in on stocks compared to strategies that involve both bonds and stocks in your investment portfolio. (0:30:10) They share their thoughts on Dave Ramsey’s notion that the 4% rule is depressing. (0:35:23) Overview of the issues and misconceptions surrounding the 4% rule. (0:37:28) Alternative approaches to spending money from a riskier investment portfolio. (0:40:06) Dynamic spending strategies to improve the initial withdrawal rate from investments. (0:43:01) Explore other financial products, like annuities, for retirement planning. (0:50:05) Mindset hurdles and adjusting expectations for financial planning. (0:58:46) Dissect the concept of delaying government pensions and its impact on investors. (1:02:24) Insights into the pros and cons of delaying social security for higher-earning women. (1:07:52) Final words of wisdom the guests have for listeners. (1:09:30) Links From Today’s Episode: Michael Finke — http://www.michaelfinke.com/home.html </
S2 E288 · Thu, January 18, 2024
Scott Rick - Navigating the Money Minefield in Real Relationships
Tightwads are more likely to hold onto their money even when there is more than enough to spend, whilst spendthrifts will drain their bank account of its very last cent. So, which one are you, and how does that impact your relationships? Joining us today is the remarkable Marketing Professor and Author, Scott Rick. Scott has just penned a new book, Tightwads and Spendthrifts: Navigating the Money Minefield in Real Relationships, which serves as a guide for finding happiness while steering through money and love. To kick-start our conversation, Scott summarizes the relationship that people generally have with money, followed by a deeper exploration of the terms “tightwad” and “spendthrift”. We break down the psychology of tightwad and spendthrift behaviours, how these two personality types interact with one another in relationships, the myths of financial infidelity and transparency, and how bank account structures (joint and individual accounts) dictate how money flows in a relationship. We also assess the roles of financial advisors and gift-giving within relationships before Scott shares his thoughts on marrying for money versus marrying for love, how to give your kids the best financial education, and what he hopes every reader will gain from the truly fascinating and informative, Tightwads and Spendthrifts! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:33) Introducing the incredible Marketing Professor and Author, Scott Rick. (0:03:08) Scott’s summation of the relationship that people have with money. (0:04:47)Diving into his latest book: Tightwads and Spendthrifts, and exploring each term. (0:13:16) Assessing the psychology behind tightwad and spendthrift behaviours. (0:18:58) The role of financial advisors. (0:21:15) What spendthrifts and tightwads can do to balance their money scales. (0:23:34) How tightwads and spendthrifts interact in romantic relationships. (0:32:10) The way bank account structures affect how money flows in a relationship. (0:35:39) Debunking financial infidelity and the downsides of total financial transparency. (0:41:04) The ins and outs of joint bank accounts versus individual accounts in relationships. (0:42:20) Gift-giving and relationships. (0:47:08) How kids can learn about money from their parents. (0:52:15) Scott shares his thoughts on marrying for love versus marrying for money. (0:55:09) What he hopes people will learn from reading Tightwads and Spendthrifts. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational
S2 E287 · Thu, January 11, 2024
A Practical Look at Private Equity w/ Steve Balaban & Epic Life w/ Justin Breen
It’s the start of a new year and with it comes an opportunity to re-evaluate your trajectory and set your goals for the months to come, whether they be financial, personal, or all of the above. Kicking things off for today’s episode is our conversation with Steve Balaban, a private equity insider with a refreshingly realistic and practical perspective on private equity. We talk with Steve about investing in private equity, the benefits and drawbacks every investor should know about, why due diligence is essential, how private equity interacts with investor psychology, and much more. Tuning in you’ll also learn about the Private Equity Certificate offered by CFA Society Toronto in collaboration with Mink Learning and how listeners can gain special access to these training tools. Next, we take a look back at our conversation with Ayelet Fishbach from the Booth School of Business on the science of motivation and goal setting and the contents of her new TEDxChicago Talk The Science of Getting Motivated. We wrap things up with a review of Justin Breen’s book titled, Epic Life: How to Build Collaborative Global Companies While Putting Your Loved Ones First, followed by our conversation with the author on the transformational power of naming your year, the power of networking, and other key lessons from his book. For all this and much more, be sure to tune in and start 2024 armed with insights from some of the best thinkers around! Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:26) Use discount code RATIONAL to watch the award-winning documentary Tune Out The Noise , free of charge (valid until the end of January 2024, so make sure you don’t miss out!) (0:03:44) An introduction to Steve Balaban and Mink Learning, a private equity education company he founded in 2019. (0:07:29) Steve’s insights on aggregate public market equivalent (PME) benchmarking and key issues that arise when using Internal Rate of Return (IRR) to benchmark private equity. (0:17:58) The best arguments in favour of private equity, the downsides you need to know about, and a rundown of the fees involved. (0:23:38) Top reasons Steve has come across for why people want to invest in private equity, and what he considers to be the right reasons. (0:29:38) How private equity interacts with investor psychology and the importance of having different vintages in your portfolio. (0:35:15) Why private equity is typically illiquid, how liquid private equity works, and the tradeoffs for investors with liquid private equity as opposed to more direct illiquid approaches. (0:42:59) The differences between private and public equity; advice on how investors should interpret private equity marketing materials and the importance of doing due diligence. <p d
Thu, January 04, 2024
Errol Morris: Tuning out the Noise
Rational Reminder listeners get exclusive first access to Tune Out the Noise, a documentary directed by Academy Award-winner Errol Morris until January 31. Tune Out The Noise Access URL: film.dimensional.com/podcast Access Code (available until Jan 31): RATIONAL In today’s episode, Errol Morris, Academy Award-winning film director and author, joins us to talk about his recently released documentary called Tune Out the Noise. The documentary focuses on the revolution that's happened in the financial system, how the markets work, and why the advancements made are so vital. Errol is an acclaimed figure in film and literature, boasting an impressive array of accolades, notably securing an Oscar for his renowned documentary The Fog of War. His work spans various arenas, encompassing short films for prestigious events and many charitable and political organizations. In our conversation, we delve into the significance of storytelling in communicating complex subjects, the power of serendipity, the evolution of finance, and the enigmatic nature of truth. We discuss the necessity of storytelling, the unexpected occurrences that influenced finance, the importance of empirical data in understanding truth, the central story of Tune Out the Noise, and much more. He also provides insights into the amazing economists, many of whom are past guests, who helped shape the financial landscape. Discover how chance, humility, and the pursuit of truth intertwine in this captivating episode, where the intriguing art of storytelling converges with the complexities of the financial world. Tune in now! Rational Reminder listeners get exclusive first access to Tune Out the Noise, a documentary directed by Academy Award-winner Errol Morris until January 31. Tune Out The Noise Access URL: film.dimensional.com/podcast Access Code (available until Jan 31): RATIONAL Key Points From This Episode: <li dir="
Thu, December 28, 2023
A Year in Review
It’s hard to believe, but today’s episode marks our fifth annual year-in-review episode — where we look back at some of our favourite conversations and takeaways from the past year! If there’s one overarching theme that stood out amongst our guests in 2023 it would be the power of purposeful decision-making to impact our future selves. Tuning in, you’ll hear our guests' remarkable views on the topic, from the power of regret when it comes to long-term decisions to the ‘hidden partner’ that accompanies us in all our decision-making. Another key theme that emerged is how the role of financial advisors is evolving. Key insights include why your financial advisor should collaborate with other advisors, why trust is essential, and how to prepare your children for wealth. We wrap things up with reflective tips on how to identify what your true goals are with a profound lesson on why setting your own scoreboard is essential. Tune in as we share some of our favourite moments from the past year and look back at the incredible guests we’ve had on the show in 2023! Key Points From This Episode: Our year with the Rational Reminder community: 23 in 23 reading challenge, memorable meetups, live recordings, a shoutout to our community moderators, and more. (0:00:19) Looking back at our conversation with Charles Ellis and Burton Malkiel on why money management is a loser’s game and navigating market efficiency. (0:08:42) Pim Van Vliet’s insights on the evidence supporting higher expected returns related to certain stock characteristics. (0:16:19) Discussing the relevance (and irrelevance) of dividends and why people tend to view dividends as particularly special, with Professor Samuel Hartzmark. (0:19:42) Our conversation with Will Goetzmann on the value of very long-term data and why historical data is still relevant today. (0:24:58) Nobel laureate, Robert Merton’s insights on putting together a long-term asset mix and taking into account your time horizon. (0:32:35) Highlights from our conversation with Professor Francisco Gomes on how asset allocation should (and should not) change over the lifecycle. (0:39:14) Our second interview with David Blanchett on how regret informs our long-term decisions and Daniel Pink’s insights on optimizing for future regret. (0:43:58) <p dir="ltr" role="prese
Thu, December 21, 2023
Prof. Scott Cederburg: Challenging the Status Quo on Lifecycle Asset Allocation
In this episode, we welcome back the esteemed Professor Scott Cederburg, Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Arizona. In this highly anticipated episode, Professor Cederburg revisits the show to delve into his groundbreaking paper on life cycle asset allocation. Professor Cederburg's latest research presents findings that disrupt traditional thinking in the field, prompting a deep dive into the implications of these new insights. In our conversation, we unpack the findings from the paper and how they challenge established norms in retirement planning and asset allocation. We discuss what the new paper adds to the discourse, his approach and methodology, the different assessment criteria used, and the main findings from the paper. We also delve into the different asset allocation strategies assessed, which strategy performed best, aspects that would influence the various strategies, and how to invest for the long term safely. We explore the nuances of stock versus bond returns and the hidden benefits of international diversification. Gain profound insights into the significance of social security, inflation-protected bonds, target date funds, and the repercussions of an all-equity strategy. Comparing his latest paper with prior research on withdrawal rates, Professor Cederburg highlights surprising aspects of the results and provides invaluable takeaways for financial advisors from these cutting-edge findings. Discover how this pioneering work challenges conventional wisdom, reshaping the landscape of retirement planning and investment strategies in this illuminating conversation with Professor Scott Cederburg. Key Points From This Episode: Background about Professor Cederburg and episode overview. (0:00:00) How his new paper challenges the central tenets in life cycle investing. (0:03:38) What sets his method apart regarding its ability to challenge the status quo. (0:06:56) How he characterizes the life cycle of the household modelled in his study. (0:09:40) The data set used and his approach for sampling and analyzing the data. (0:12:09) Retirement outcomes used to evaluate life cycle asset allocation strategies. (0:13:56) Asset allocation strategies investigated in the paper and which one performs best. (0:15:49) Left tail outcomes of all-stocks strategy, stock returns vs bond returns, and the benefits of int
Thu, December 14, 2023
When Volatility is Risk, and Introducing The Money Scope Podcast
Today’s episode features a series of in-depth segments, and includes a visit from our two favourite Marks; Mark Soth (aka The Loonie Doctor) and Mark McGrath! To kick things off we break down volatility and investor behaviour by looking back at our conversation with Scott Cederburg and what his research demonstrates about the topic. We then hear from Mark Soth about the project that he and Ben have been working on; the soon-to-be-released Money Scope podcast. Find out what you can expect from their financial curriculum, like the topics they’ll be covering and how the structure of their episodes is specifically designed to educate. Next up we have our Mark to Market Segment, with Mark McGrath providing a detailed overview of everything you need to know about physicians incorporating. We then cover a recap of our conversation with Gerard O'Reilly, before sharing our thoughts on why this episode is worth multiple listens. Following that you’ll hear Cameron share his review of Brave New Work: Are You Ready to Reinvent Your Organization? by Aaron Dignan, along with his key takeaways from the book. Finally, in our after-show section, we discuss some of the fantastic guests we have coming up, our recommended reading to prepare for those episodes, community updates, plus a few other goodies! Key Points From This Episode: The biggest takeaways on volatility and investor behaviour from Scott Cederburg’s research; unpacking performance chasing, return gaps, fund expense ratios, and more. (0:02:06) An overview of the project that Mark Soth and Ben have been working on, the Money Scope podcast; why they started it, what it covers, and who it’s for. (0:14:13) Details on Money Scope’s format and the supplementary case study episodes. (0:19:12) Our Mark to Market segment on physicians incorporating; a rundown of the complexities, common misconceptions, and benefits to be aware of. (0:26:32) How much you should be retaining in a corporation to make it worthwhile. (0:33:30) A look back at our conversation with Gerard O'Reilly and why this episode is a must-listen. (0:37:58) Cameron’s review of Brave New Work: Are You Ready to Reinvent Your Organization? by Aaron Dignan, along with his top takeaways. (0:40:10) Our after-show section; guests to look forward to, recommended reading, community highlights, and more. (0:46:23)
S2 E282 · Thu, December 07, 2023
Dr. Jim Grubman: The Psychology of Wealth
In this episode, we delve deep into the world of wealth management and family advisory services and explore the evolving landscape of financial wealth planning. Dr. James Grubman, a renowned expert in family wealth psychology and author of Strangers in Paradise and Wealth 3.0 , shares his profound insights and expertise on this critical subject. Dr. Grubman is a distinguished figure in family wealth and well-being and has made a mark with his profound understanding and enduring contributions to the field. In our conversation, we unpack the wealth management landscape through a psychological lens. We discuss the definition of wealth, the complex family dynamics and hurdles faced when adapting to elevated levels of wealth, and the essential role parents play in imparting financial responsibility to their children. We also explore the fundamentals when embracing the cultural norms associated with affluence, the psychological and practical ramifications of avoiding or overcompensating for wealth, the changing landscape of family wealth management, and much more. Listeners will also gain a comprehensive understanding of the evolution of wealth management, from traditional approaches to the transformative Wealth 3.0, along with insights on nurturing strong family relationships in the context of affluence. Dr. Grubman's wealth of knowledge and engaging storytelling make this episode a must-listen for those interested in the future of wealth management. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: Dr. Grubman’s definition of wealth and why wealth is relative. (0:04:06) How common is becoming wealthy compared to being born wealthy. (0:07:12) Family dynamics and challenges when adapting to higher levels of wealth. (0:11:01) Why modelling healthy personal financial management is vital for children. (0:16:00) Discover how the origins of wealth influence the ability to psychologically adapt. (0:20:34) Essential considerations when adopting the culture of wealth. (0:23:00) Possible reasons why someone may avoid adopting the culture of Wealth 3.0. (0:27:48) The implications of avoiding and overcompensating for the culture of wealth. (0:30:03) Explore what contributes to the successful integration into the culture of wealth. (0:35:23) Common barriers that prevent learning and adapting to higher levels of wealth. (0:37:10) Aspects parents should consider when preparing their children for wealth. (0:40:30) His perspective on professional advisors in managing family wealth. (0:46:36) Unpacking the evolution of the wealth management landscape. (0:48:37) He explains why the negative psychological implications of wealth have persisted. (0:53:48) Insights into the definition and concept of Wealth 3.0. (0:55:47) New skills advisors need to develop to be successful in the Wealth 3.0
S2 E281 · Thu, November 30, 2023
Lifecycle Asset Allocation, and Retiring Successfully with Justin King
Today, we take a closer look at asset allocation through an empirical lens, by drawing on the work and data of Scott Cederburg and his new article ‘Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice’. We unpack what the research tells us about how to establish the optimal mix of assets in a portfolio, the challenges of making the right decisions when you have volatile assets, and why it’s critical that you understand your level of risk tolerance. Next, in our Mark to Market segment, we unpack different types of insurance — like life, disability, and critical illness — and when you should own them personally versus making them the property of your corporation. We then review Justin King’s new book The Retirement Café Handbook: Nine Accelerators for a Successful Retirement before sitting down with the author himself to discuss the content of his latest work and his long-held interest in helping others optimize for retirement. Tuning in you’ll hear Justin share his thoughts on the role of choice, vitality, and joy when it comes to having a successful retirement, the nine accelerators he lays out in his book, and how to become the hero of your retirement story. In our final section, we wrap things up with some wonderful reviews from listeners and our book recommendations. To hear all of the captivating takeaways from today’s episode, be sure to tune in! Key Points From This Episode: Breaking down asset allocation through an empirical lens; finding the right mix of assets in a portfolio, common challenges, and measuring risk. (0:02:12) The role of government pensions when considering asset allocation over one’s life. (0:09:10) Investigating whether volatility is risk; modeling the lifecycle of an investor and determining if (and when) it makes sense to shift into bonds over time. (0:11:27) Analyzing the data, modelling, and findings from the paper, ‘Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice’. (0:14:02) The challenges of behaving well with volatile assets; advice on how to assess your risk tolerance, your ability to endure short-term declines, and more. (0:23:10) Our Mark to Market segment: unpacking different types of insurance and when you should own them personally or inside your corporation. (0:29:50) A quick look back at our conversation with Dr. Anna Lembke on the subject of dopamine. (0:37:58) This week’s book review: Justin King’s The Retirement Café Handbook: Nine Accelerators for a Successful Retirement. (0:39:33) Our conversation with Justin King on how to retire successfully. (0:41:19) Unpacking the nine accelerators in Justin’s book and where they come from. (0:45:44) How to get the most out of The Retirement Café Handbook. (0:55:47) Sharing some of the wonderful reviews we’ve gotten recently, plus our book recommendations. (0
S2 E280 · Thu, November 23, 2023
Shane Parrish: Clear Thinking in Everyday Life
In this episode, we delve into the complexity of navigating life's challenges, taking risks, fostering self-confidence, and honing problem-solving skills. Joining us is Shane Parrish, a best-selling author, to help us unpack this nuanced topic through the lens of his new book, Clear Thinking. His latest publication is a roadmap for recognizing pivotal moments for clear thought and exposing how our defaults often drive us. He aims to empower readers to intervene, harness reasoning, and apply cognitive tools for better decision-making. Shane is also the founder of the website blog Farnam Street and the venture capitalist firm Syrus Partners. In our conversation, we explore the steps to becoming a clear thinker and how the mantra can be applied to our daily lives. We discuss how ordinary moments influence our decisions, the definition of true goals, and how to build self-confidence. We also unpack the barriers that hinder clear thinking, the difference between playing on hard and playing on easy, the value of continual growth, and much more. Tune in and discover how to master risk, confidence, and problem-solving with Shane Parrish! Key Points From This Episode: Background about Shane Parrish and his new best-selling book, Clear Thinking . (0:00:19) The significance of ordinary moments and the benefits of becoming a clear thinker. (0:03:19) Examples of how ordinary moments can multiply bigger decisions to zero. (0:06:32) Defining true goals, and why regularly reassessing them ensures personal growth. (0:08:20) Clear thinking's role in reaching goals and how it helps evaluate your objectives. (0:11:07) Discover the defaults that hinder clear thinking and strategies to overcome them. (0:12:19) Best practices as a decision-making tool and the value of unconventional paths. (0:25:22) Explore the role of self-confidence in clear thinking and taking the first step. (0:26:51) Learn about the importance of good habits in developing clear thinking. (0:33:03) Making your own rules, sticking to them, and how they can help in social situations. (0:36:23) Characterizing the problem before starting the problem-solving process. (0:44:17) Shane shares why he values time over money. (0:48:52) Steps for curating your mental environment and Shane’s definition of success. (0:53:24) Links From Today’s Episode: Farnam Street — https://fs.blog/ Shane Parrish on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/ Shane Parrish on X — https://twitter.com/ShaneAParrish Syrus Partners — https://www.syruspartners.com/ Clear Thinking — <a href= "ht
S2 E279 · Thu, November 16, 2023
Stock Returns in Recessions, and FSRA's Approach to Regulation
In this episode, we start by learning about the complex relationship between recessions and stock returns before welcoming Huston Loke and Jordan Solway from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) to discuss protecting consumers in the financial investment space. Huston is the Executive Vice President of Market Conduct, and Jordan is the Executive Vice President of Legal and Enforcement at FSRA. The FSRA supervises insurance companies, mortgage brokers, credit unions, pensions and other non-securities areas of the financial services sector. We discuss the objectives of the FSRA, their approach to protecting consumers, enforcement strategies, upcoming regulations, and more. Then, we welcome back Mark McGrath to learn about the Passive Investment Grind (PIG) concept for this week's Mark to Market segment, and we take a look back at a previous episode with Ted Seides of Capital Allocators. Finally, we are joined by author Tim Hale to discuss the new edition of his book Smarter Investing before closing off with our usual after-show roundup. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:22) The relationship between recessions and stock returns, the definition of a technical recession, and the role of media in shaping perceptions. (0:09:33) Why bad economic conditions don't necessarily warrant changes to investment strategies and why attempts to time the market based on recession news should be avoided. (0:13:42) Introducing Huston Loke and Jordan Solway and background about the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA). (0:15:34) Objectives of the FSRA and the principle of putting the client’s interest first. (0:18:55) What aspects of financial advisory services FSRA regard as the most important. (0:20:30) Unpacking the “Take-All-Comers” rule in Ontario and how it protects consumers. (0:25:32) How successful the title protection rule has been in Ontario and how it differentiates between the title of financial advisor and financial planner. (0:29:21) Concerns about the rollout of the title protection rule and the disparity across various designations. (0:33:26) Advice for identifying a suitable financial advisor or planner and how the FSRA is helping cross-check credentials. (0:37:19) FSRA's findings in a review of tiered recruitment model life insurance MGAs and the enforcement action taken. (0:44:47) Insights into commission-based compensation structures for financial products and upcoming commission disclosure rules. (0:49:09) Additional steps consumers can take to avoid bad financial advice and services. (0:50:49) Recommendations for budding financial planners or advisors to ensure they get the correct training. (0:53:23) Dis
S2 E278 · Thu, November 09, 2023
Episode 278: Juhani Linnainmaa: Financial Advisors, and the Cross-Section of Returns
If you dive deep into financial advisor fixed effects, you’ll begin to understand that an advisor's own portfolio has a bigger impact on the portfolios of their clients than the characteristics of the clients themselves. To help us make sense of this and to further explain financial values and the cross-section of returns, we are joined by the influential and notorious Professor of Finance, Juhani Linnainmaa. Our conversation begins with a comprehensive analysis of financial values, including a comparison between the trading patterns of advisors and those of their clients, a disquisition of misguided beliefs, an examination of client characteristics, and the ins and outs of portfolio variation and customizations. Canada recently adopted regulations from the Mutual Fund Dealers Association (MFDA), and we discuss how this has affected the use of financial advice in the country before comparing the benefit of increased equity share to the cost of advice, what hiring a new advisor before a financial crisis may mean for clients, and the role of regulation in the industry. We end with the cross-section of returns by examining accounting-based anomalies pre-1963, how profitability and investment relate to data mining, why a financial firm would switch between growth and value, and finally, Professor Juhani Linnainmaa’s definition of success. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:42) A very warm welcome to the influential Professor of Finance, Juhani Linnainmaa. (0:03:52) Comparing the trading patterns of advisors to those of their clients. (0:08:45) How regulators can go about addressing misguided beliefs. (0:11:08) Client characteristics that advisors base portfolio customizations on. (0:13:22) Whether the variation in a client’s portfolio can be explained by their characteristics. (0:14:49) Explaining the remaining variation in portfolios. (0:19:38) Other reasons for the high cost of advising, aside from portfolio customization. (0:22:03) How the adoption of the MFDA affected the use of financial advice in Canada. (0:26:03) Comparing the benefit of increased equity share to the cost of advice. (0:31:45) How getting a new advisor before the financial crisis affects ongoing investments. (0:35:46) The role of regulation. (0:37:47) Getting into the cross-section of returns with accounting-based anomalies pre-‘63. (0:40:51) Weather profitability and investment are data-mined factors. (0:44:05) The optimal X-anti mix of factors in a portfolio. (0:46:56) The mechanisms that cause firms to move between growth and value. (0:56:31) Professor Juhani’s definition of success. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Remi
S2 E277 · Thu, November 02, 2023
The Cash Wedge w/ Phil Briggs, and and the Four Ds of Tax Planning
During this episode, Financial Advisor and Associate Portfolio Manager Phil Briggs joins us to discuss the ‘cash wedge’ financial strategy. He also shares his motivation for joining PWL Capital after kicking off his career in the banking industry. Next, Mark McGrath unpacks the four D’s of tax planning and how to implement them in your future planning. We review a much-loved past episode featuring Dr. William Bernstein and unpack the principles taught in Seth Godin’s latest book, The Song of Significance. During the aftershow, you’ll hear about our recent explorations in the world of infinite banking, Admired Leadership, and more. In closing, we share some of our favourite reviews from guests all over the world and offer a glimpse of what’s to come in upcoming conversations. Thanks for listening! Key Points From This Episode: (0:02:19) Phil’s introduction to financial services and his decision to join PWL. (0:07:06)The role of the podcast in helping Philip to take the plunge and leave his role at the bank. (0:09:35) What the ‘cash wedge’ strategy is and how it supports financial planning for retirement. (0:22:41) Stress-testing financial plans using the Monte Carlo simulation. (0:25:10) Mark McGrath joins the show for this episode’s Mark-to-Market segment. (0:29:54) Assessing which category RSPs fit into. (0:32:02) Past episode review: episode 108 with Dr. William Bernstein. (0:34:22) Reviewing Seth Godin’s book, The Song of Significance. (0:29:11) Seth’s principles on the road to significance. (0:39:53) The aftershow: infinite banking, Admired Leadership, and more. (0:42:43) Reviews from Canada, Australia, San Francisco, and beyond. (0:47:44) A teaser for two upcoming episodes. Books From Today’s Episode: The Song of Significance — https://www.amazon.com/Song-Significance-New-Manifesto-Teams/dp/0593715543 The Four Pillars of Investing — https://www.amazon.com/Four-Pillars-Investing-Second-Portfolio/dp/1264715919/ The Wealthy Barber — https://www.amazon.com/Wealthy-Barber-Updated-3rd-Commonsense/dp/0761513116 Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — http
S2 E276 · Thu, October 26, 2023
Darin Soat: The Problem with Finfluencers, and Why it Won’t Get Better Anytime Soon
If you’re in the world of finance, you’d know today’s guest from YouTube — but you’ve probably never heard his real name. However, today and for the first time, he chooses to associate his actual identity with his YouTube channel! It’s an honour to introduce to you, Mr. How Money Works himself, Darin Soat. On his YouTube channel, Darin combines captivating storytelling with high-quality, sensible information that helps you to make better financial decisions. Today, he joins us to explain How Money Works, why he chose to create his channel anonymously, and how he feels after his grand reveal. He describes how his channel informed his career as an investment banker, and gives us his insider breakdown of how influencer businesses work. Then, we dive deep into YouTube as we explore the problems with today’s financial influencers (finfluencers), how these problems are carried through to the crypto market, why it’s rare to find high-quality financial information on YouTube, and everything you need to know about the gamification of investing, creating passive income, and the ins and outs of investing from the perspective of one of YouTube’s top finfluencers, Darin Soat! Key Points From This Episode: We’re thrilled to reveal the real identity behind How Money Works – Darin Soat! (0:00:42) Darin’s professional background. (0:01:41) A thorough description of How Money Works, straight from the source. (0:04:33) Exploring Darin’s background in investment banking. (0:07:08) How he chooses content for his YouTube channel. (0:11:05) Why he created his channel anonymously, and how he feels after his reveal. (0:12:54) How his channel impacted his work while he was still in investment banking. (0:14:54) Darin’s summation of how influencer businesses work. (0:17:00) The problems with today’s financial influencers on YouTube. (0:21:17) How the aforementioned problems relate to the crypto market. (0:27:11) His criteria for selecting sponsors for How Money Works. (0:32:03) Why high-quality personal financial information is rarely seen on YouTube. (0:33:45) Darin’s advice on side hustles and creating passive income. (0:36:25) How financial influencers and the gamification of investing affect real-world investors. (0:40:11) What everyone needs to know about investing, according to Darin. (0:50:38) Links From Today’s Episode: Darin Soat on X — https://twitter.com/DarinSoat How Money Works — https://www.youtube.com/@HowMoneyWorks How Money Works on X — https://twitter.com/howmoneyworksyt Compounded Daily — https://www.compoundeddaily.com/ How History Works
S2 E275 · Thu, October 19, 2023
Live from Future Proof 2023: Decoding Financial Decision-Making with Hal Hershfield
In this episode, we welcome back Hal Hershfield, Associate Professor of Marketing and Behavioral Decision Making at UCLA Anderson School of Management. Hal is renowned for his pioneering work in understanding how individuals make financial decisions, and he shares invaluable insights that can help us navigate the complexities of financial planning. In our conversation, live from Future Proof, we explore the intersection of behavioural economics, financial decision-making, and the potential for AI to enhance financial advisory services through the lens of Hal’s latest research findings. We explore framing insurance decisions, the impact of generative AI on financial choices, and the often-overlooked realm of end-of-life decisions. Discover why the key to success lies in understanding different consumer segments, how advisors can optimize the frequency of client meetings, and how clients and advisors should be working together. We also unpack the importance of personalized decisions, the value of a decision-making journal, the framework for making the right financial choice, and much more. Tune in to gain valuable insights into behavioural economics, consumer preferences, and the evolving financial planning landscape with Hal Hershfield! Key Points From This Episode: (0:02:41) Hal shares his motivation for writing the paper and why the topic of financial decision-making is so vital to understand. (0:04:28) An overview of our current understanding of financial decision-making and interesting findings from the latest work on the subject. (0:09:00) How to leverage the current knowledge of financial decision-making to your benefit. (0:10:27) Opportunities for the industry to improve, both in academia and industry. (0:15:09) Characterizing the framework for conceptualizing financial decisions, from decision-making to the consequences. (0:18:13) The biggest gaps and opportunities for future research and the value of writing and maintaining a decision journal. (0:22:33) The potential of AI to influence financial decision-making, and an example of an exciting use-case. (0:26:31) Exploring the role of human financial advisors in an AI-dominated world. (0:29:56) Insights into the steps for a client and advisory firm to work together effectively. (0:34:07) What area of research in behavioural finance excites Hal the most. (0:36:23) Bridging the gap between industry and academia. Links From Today’s Episode: Future Proof Festival 2023 — https://futureproof.advisorcircle.com/ Advisor Circle — https://www.advisorcircle.com/ Hal He
S2 E274 · Thu, October 12, 2023
A Live 5-Year Rational Reminder Retrospective (and Creating Superfans with Brittany Hodak)
In this episode, we are trying something different. Recorded live at the CFA Society’s Toronto Annual Wealth Conference, we take an exclusive look at the origins and evolution of the Rational Reminder Podcast through an interview with Ben and Cameron. From motivations for starting the podcast to favourite episodes and guests, we delve into the behind-the-scenes of the show. Discover how the podcast has grown, the impact it's had on listeners, and the exciting global reach it's achieved. Get an exclusive look at the challenges, regrets, and valuable lessons learned along the way. Then, we are joined by Mark McGrath to explore common pitfalls of ITF accounts, providing listeners with valuable information to help them make the right decisions for their investments. Finally, we welcome special guest Brittany Hodak, author of Creating Superfans, which unpacks the concept of turning customers into passionate fans of your brand. Brittany shares her insights on the power of storytelling in business and how to create Superfans who will champion your brand. We explore the concept of the experience economy, the right approach to investing in marketing for your business, and much more! Join us for this extraordinary episode that blends wealth management insights, podcasting wisdom, and the secrets to cultivating Superfans. Whether you're a long-time Rational Reminder listener or a business owner seeking to supercharge customer loyalty, this episode has something for everyone. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:04:32) Introduction to Ben and Cameron’s interview at the 2023 Annual Wealth Conference. (0:07:15) Learn about the average listener base for the show, the active Rational Reminder community, and how the podcast has grown over time. (0:10:08) The global reach of the podcast, how it has benefitted business, and a look back at the first episode of Rational Reminder. (0:13:19) What Ben and Cameron originally envisioned, how they met, and what motivated them to start a podcast. (0:15:17) Insights into the cost of the show, the shift from audio only, and the appetite for long-form content. (0:18:18) Their favourite episodes and guests, keeping content balanced, and how the reading challenge was started. (0:25:25) Attracting big industry names to the podcast, their dream guests, and the episodes that did not go to plan. (0:31:28) Advice for aspiring podcasters, the amount of work the show takes, and their biggest lessons so far. (0:37:02) Ben and Cameron share their reading habits and the books they think everyone should read and why. (0:40:14) Why they work so well together, plans for the future, and what they wish they knew before starting the podcast. (0:43:14) Ben and Cameron each share their definition of success, and final words of advice for listeners. (0:45:46) Mark to Market: exploring the ins and outs of ITF
S2 E273 · Wed, October 04, 2023
Professor Samuel Hartzmark: Asset Pricing, Behavioural Finance, and Sustainability Rankings
Today’s episode is an exhilarating journey into the captivating realms of finance and human behaviour with Professor Samuel Hartzmark, who takes centre stage to explore the complex intersection of asset pricing and behavioural finance. Professor Hartzmark’s career and academic journey are nothing short of inspiring. With a double major in mathematics and economics, a prestigious MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and a Ph.D. from the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business, he has paved a remarkable path through the world of academia. Our conversation takes a deep dive into his groundbreaking research, where he dissects complex financial topics with astonishing clarity. We delve into some of his most-cited papers, including those on dividends and sustainable investing, which consistently reveal counterintuitive conclusions that challenge conventional wisdom. We unpack price-only index returns, dividend juicing, price-only data, the value of sustainability rankings, and the power of capital to make the world a better place. And don't miss our exploration of multi-factor asset pricing, where Samuel’s unique perspective sheds new light on these models in the context of human behaviour. This episode promises an enlightening and engaging conversation that investors and finance enthusiasts alike won't want to miss! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:48) Morningstar's sustainability rating system and its impact on the flow of mutual funds. (0:07:35) Choosing sustainability ratings over other metrics and how they motivate investors. (0:16:24) What drives the behaviour of mutual fund investors toward green firms. (0:18:17) Unpacking the concept of sustainable investing and how impact elasticity is relevant. (0:23:15) Insights into the impact elasticity differences between brown and green firms. (0:26:40) The divestment of brown firms and ESG integration. (0:28:58) Unlocking the power of investor capital to shift toward a green economy. (0:32:57) Price returns versus dividend returns from a behavioural finance perspective. (0:39:05) Whether dividends are a safe hedge in a volatile market. (0:44:26) Reasons behind the demand for dividends and how it impacts expected returns. (0:47:55) Ways mutual funds exploit the preferences of dividend investors. (0:50:52) Dividend juicing and the overall cost to investors. (0:53:21) Advice and recommendations for dividend-loving investors. (0:54:53) Diving into data preferences: unveiling the prevalence of price-only index usage. (0:58:09) How price-only data reliance affects media coverage of the market and fund flows. (1:02:17) Investor exp
S2 E272 · Thu, September 28, 2023
Rob Carrick: Canadian Personal Finance in 2023
In this episode, we welcome back one of Canada's most trusted and widely read financial experts to discuss the state of Canadian personal finance. Rob Carrick is a columnist for The Globe and Mail, where he has brought his boots-on-the-ground perspective to readers for more than 20 years. He also co-hosts the Stress Test Podcast, where regular Canadians offer real-life perspectives on the biggest stress tests that their personal finances face in the wake of COVID-19. Tuning in, you’ll find out which issues are at the forefront of Rob’s readers’ lives. Next, he shares his perspective on GICs and ETFs and draws a comparison between affordable housing today and the mutual fund market of 20 to 30 years ago. We talk about the lack of comprehensive advice that Canadians are receiving from their planners, the state of affordable housing in the country, and why so many Canadians say they are giving up on home ownership altogether. We also compare housing returns to the stock market and discuss successfully using a reverse mortgage, the non-financial challenges faced by retirees, and more. For a comprehensive overview of the state of personal finance in Canada (and some practical advice for protecting yourself and prospering in a challenging economy), don’t miss today’s episode! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:19) Introducing today’s returning guest, Rob Carrick. (0:02:38) Issues at the forefront of Rob’s readers’ lives today. (0:04:02) His perspective on GICs, ETFs, and simplification. (0:09:33) Comparing today’s EFT Market with the mutual fund market of 20 to 30 years ago. (0:15:24) The lack of comprehensive advice Canadians are receiving from their planners. (0:20:03) Rob’s perspective on affordable housing, as outlined in his Globe and Mail article. (0:24:52) Why a growing number of adults continue to live with their parents into adulthood. (0:28:48) Reasons that many Canadians say they are “giving up on home ownership.” (0:31:44) Housing returns in comparison to the stock market. (0:35:13) Successfully using a reverse mortgage. (0:37:28) Some of the non-financial challenges faced by retirees. (0:41:06) The number of parents supporting their adult children today. (0:45:03) How adult children are pitching in to support their parents. 0:49:06) Rob’s advice for educating the next generation on financial planning. Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — <a href= "https://rationalremi
S2 E271 · Thu, September 21, 2023
Expected Returns of the AI Revolution (plus People are Lying to you About Money w/ Anthony Walsh)
AI is not new and financial mis-education is rife. These are two ideas that form the foundation of this episode, which features insights from Ben Felix, Mark McGrath, and guest speaker Anthony Walsh. To start our conversation, we explore the history of artificial intelligence and what it might mean for the future and beyond. During this Mark to Market segment, Mark McGrath shares his experience of owning property and becoming a landlord before we look back on Episode 155 with Don Ezra, where he revealed his thoughts on planning for life after work. Anthony Walsh, author of People Are Lying To You About Money joins us to discuss his efforts to remedy the lack of financial literacy among everyday people, how he approaches financial planning as a risk-averse person, and his move from lean FI to Coast Fi. He also shares his thoughts on the relative value of money, the importance of planning according to financial wellness and health, and more. Join us today to hear all this and so much more! Key Points From This Episode: (0:04:07) The cycles of AI development, excitement, and disappointment in technological history. (0:15:01) How technology bubbles impact investors and why investing in revolutionary technology is a questionable strategy. (0:18:50) The paradox of skill and how it applies to investment strategy. (0:23:40) Mark to Market Segment with Mark McGrath on real estate and rentals. (0:34:50) Looking back on Episode 155 with Don Ezra on planning for life after work. (0:37:03) Introducing today’s guest: Anthony Walsh, who wrote People Are Lying To You About Money. (0:40:17) Four types of lies people tell about money and why most people are financially illiterate. (0:48:46) How Anthony navigates financial planning as a risk-averse person. (0:53:25) What motivated his move from Lean FI to Coast FI and the relative value of money. (0:55:10) The importance of planning according to financial wellness and health. (0:57:19) The after-show; shows and series your hosts have been watching and a book recommendation. Books From Today’s Episode: Irrat
S2 E270 · Thu, September 14, 2023
Episode 270: Victor Haghani and James White: The Missing Billionaires
If the wealthiest families of the past century spent a reasonable amount of their wealth, invested in the stock market, and paid taxes, there would be thousands of billionaires today. But there aren’t. So, what happened? To answer this question, we are joined by authors and finance professionals, Victor Haghani and James White. Their recently released book, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, uses the missing billionaires puzzle to explore how and why most investors fail to capture the returns offered by the market. Victor was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the multi-billion-dollar hedge fund that famously collapsed in 1998 and nearly took the global financial markets down with it. His participation in the downfall of LTCM led him to reassess much of the way he thought about investing, and in this episode, he shares some simple but powerful frameworks and personal finance recommendations. We also receive accessible explanations of the Merton model and expected utility theory from James, take a deep dive into dynamic asset allocation, discuss optimal solutions for lifetime spending, and learn more about the certainty equivalent return and Sharpe ratios, plus so much more. Whether you’re an entrepreneur invested in your own business or simply focused on building long-term wealth, Victor and James’ book (and this conversation about it) will be a valuable resource for better financial decision-making, so be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: (0:05:19) The puzzle of the missing billionaires (and why it matters to Victor and James). (0:09:45) Some common but critical financial decision-making problems most people face. (0:12:39) Unpacking the coin-flipping experiment in their ‘What's Past is Not Prologue’ paper. (0:19:57) What investors should aim to maximize when sizing positions in risky assets. (0:24:22) An example that illustrates how the Merton model relates to bullish bets. (0:29:04) What the Merton share tells us about dynamic asset allocation if it is or isn't possible to estimate expected equity returns. (0:35:29) How real expected returns affect optimal risky shares for long-term investors. (0:37:29) Different ways to forecast volatility to determine the optimal risky share. <p dir="ltr" role="presentat
S2 E269 · Thu, September 07, 2023
Preet Banerjee: A multi-dimensional analysis of the value of financial advice
This week we welcome back return guest Preet Banerjee, a renowned speaker, personal finance expert, consultant, and author of Stop Overthinking Your Money. Listeners may remember Preet from his previous appearance on the show back in 2019 when he was first embarking on his doctoral journey. Several years and one pandemic later, Preet has finally made it through the monumental task of completing his dissertation! We spend today’s conversation with Preet getting into the fascinating details of his research which interrogates the value of financial advice within households and explores the pressing question of whether it’s worth getting it. Preet provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of financial planning and shares his most intriguing findings before unpacking the policy and regulatory recommendations that emerge from his research. The latter part of the show includes our Mark to Market segment with Mark McGrath, where this week, he delivers key insights on retirement savings plans (RSPs) and why he believes RSPs are actually tax-free. You’ll also hear our reflection on our past conversation with Colonel Chris Hadfield, paired with a book review of Kevin Kelly’s Excellent Advice for Living: Wisdom I Wish I'd Known Earlier. Join us for an expansive episode on the value of financial advice along with timely insights on what truly matters in life! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:34) Background on today’s guest, Preet Banerjee, and the focus of his research: the value of financial advice to households and whether it’s worth getting it. (0:06:29) Key problems with past research attempting to demonstrate the value of financial advice (including the portfolio-centric advice model). (0:10:47) A review of the existing literature on the value of financial advice; the gap in the literature that his research is addressing. (0:16:27) How Preet measured holistic wealth scores and comprehensive financial confidence in his research and the dataset he based his research on. (0:21:26) What Preet took into account to determine who were DIY investors within his sample and which advice channels they use. (0:28:27) The study of financial planning, shortcomings within the field, and some of the positive developments in recent years. (0:30:00) Informative takeaways regarding advice channels, investable assets, and having a financial plan. <p dir="ltr" role="presenta
S2 E268 · Thu, August 31, 2023
Itzhak Ben-David: ETFs, Investor Behavior, and Hedge Fund Fees
For nearly 25 years, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been a popular passive investment vehicle for both household and professional investors due to their low transaction costs and high liquidity. But what are the pros and cons? How can you diversify your portfolio to avoid volatility? Today, we are joined by Professor Itzhak Ben-David, one of the world’s foremost academic experts on ETFs, the Neil Klatskin Chair in Finance and Real Estate at The Ohio State University (OSU) Fisher College of Business, and the Academic Director of the OSU Center for Real Estate. In this episode, we look at the current ETF market and the impact that ETFs have on underlying securities and investor outcomes. We discuss Morningstar ratings, the change that happened in 2002, and some mind-blowing data regarding hedge fund fees. We also dive into the correlation between miscalibrated CFOs and overconfidence; the unnecessary mental accounting people do when it comes to tax refunds, and so much more. This conversation makes for an incredibly diversified overview of a variety of topics that are relevant to financial decision-making at the household level. Finance experts will certainly find value here, too! Regardless of your level of experience, tune in today to learn more. Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:27) Professor Ben-David’s take on the current state of the ETF market. (0:07:37) Ways that investors are affected by a broader variety of ETF options. (0:16:46) Advice for investors who have been lured in by a sector or thematic ETF. (0:17:53) Mutual or hedge funds versus ETFs and their impact on underlying securities. (0:26:38) Reflections on the behaviour of mutual fund investors (learning versus luck). (0:33:01) How we can learn what investors care about from mutual fund flows. (0:37:15) Why investors typically put their money where the Morningstar ratings are. (0:38:46) Morningstar’s rewiring of the “star” system in 2002 and its repercussions. (0:48:54) The effect of Morningstar ratings on mutual fund flow and momentum. (0:52:40) Hedge fund investor behaviour versus mutual fund and ETF investors. (0:54:46) The “two-and
S2 E267 · Thu, August 24, 2023
The (Expected) Cost of Pessimism (Plus Matthew Dicks on the Value of Storytelling)
Today's show is centred on the expected cost of pessimism and how investor expectations of loss negatively affect financial decisions. After concisely exploring the data and literature on the subject, we get into a few solutions to this dynamic and talk about how to find a way around natural human tendencies and myopic loss aversion. We then get into our first Mark's Minutes segment, with our colleague Mark McGrath briefly explaining some interesting ideas about risk and tax-free savings accounts. For today's episode retrospective, we go over Episode 45 and the conversation we had with Moira Somers about effective communication and advice methods. Matthew Dicks, the author of Storyworthy then joins us to offer some insight into the utility of stories in the different areas of life, including financial advice, and more relaxed social settings. Matthew does a great job of describing and demonstrating how stories connect people, and allow ideas to flow in a natural and impactful way, so make sure to tune in. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing the inverse relationship between subjective return expectations and expected returns. (0:02:55). Potential solutions to this issue; checking investments less frequently, ignoring financial media, healthy advisor relationships, and more. (0:15:39) Mark's Minutes: Mark McGrath shares some background on the TFSA and its positive and negative sides. (0:22:59) A quick recap of our episode with Moira Somers and its lessons on effective financial advice. (0:30:36) An introduction to Matthew Dicks and some thoughts on storytelling. (0:32:05) Matthew talks about the power of storytelling to shape the world. (0:36:35) Strategies for finding, crafting, and telling great stories. (0:41:45) Matthew weighs in using storytelling in the world of investing and financial advice. (0:48:23) Finding the value in your own personal data and experience. (0:52:04) Today's after-show: upcoming events and news from home. (0:54:40) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-237-the-expected-cost-of-pessimism-plus-matthew-dicks-on-the-value-of-storytelling-discussion-thread/24887 Join Our Live Event: What Are my Options with my Options? - https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3916910040743/WN_PsbTZ8CqR_SvFNdpy5oIK A Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — <a href= "https://itunes.appl
S2 E266 · Thu, August 17, 2023
Prof. Cass Sunstein: Practical Reason in Ordinary Life
We make countless decisions throughout our lives that range from the mundane to the monumental. But how do you decide how you decide? That is the fundamental question in our esteemed guest, Cass R. Sunstein’s new book Decisions about Decisions: Practical Reason in Ordinary Life. Cass currently serves as the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard University and is the founder and director of the Program on Behavioral Economics and Public Policy at Harvard Law School. He is also a prolific author, with one of his most notable works being the hugely popular and impactful book, Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness , which he co-wrote with Richard Thaler in 2008. In today's conversation, we sit down with Cass to discuss the difficulties inherent to understanding why people make the decisions they make and what the latest research teaches us about how we should approach decision-making to maximize our well-being. Cass provides insight into second-order thinking strategies, the difference between picking and choosing, and why delegating a particular decision is sometimes the right call. We also unpack what to consider when making major life choices, the strengths and weaknesses of algorithms when it comes to decision-making, and much more. To hear Cass’s many insights on the topic of behaviour, knowledge, and decision-making, be sure to tune in! Key Points From This Episode: The challenges of understanding why people make the decisions that they make. (0:03:38) Second-order decisions and why they are sometimes preferable to on-the-spot decisions. (0:04:50) An overview of various second-order decision strategies. (0:06:45) Guidelines to help you choose which decisions to delegate and how to determine whether you have a trustworthy delegate. (0:11:28) What to consider when making a transformative and irrevocable life decision. (0:16:07) Why people avoid seeking out information that might make them feel bad, even if it could help them make better decisions. (0:21:29) How people decide what information to believe and when to update their beliefs. (0:28:01) Asymmetries in how we update our beliefs and factors that can deter people from updating their beliefs when faced with new evidence. (0:32:28) How joint evaluation and separate evaluation influences your decision making and which one you should use depending on the context. (0:43:12) Insights on well-being and what to value when you’re making everyday decisions. (0:48:14) The strengths and weaknesses of algorithms when it comes to making decisions and what we gain when we make decisions ourselves. (0:52:38) Examples of when using algorithms can be harmful or dangerous. (0:59:25) How our decisions can be manipulated and the importance of doing due diligence. (01:01:30) Cass’s well-known work on nudg
S2 E265 · Thu, August 10, 2023
5% HISA... for the Long-run? (Plus Stoicism with Michael Tremblay)
In this episode, we tackle the timely topic of higher interest rates and their potential impact on investors' decisions. With rates soaring to unprecedented levels, many are tempted to veer off their investment paths in pursuit of short-term gains. But is this a rational choice? We break it down and offer invaluable insights into why staying the course might be the wiser option. We also welcome new PWL team member Mark McGrath. Mark possesses an innate talent for crafting concise, valuable, and captivating financial planning nuggets on social media. His content has struck a chord with the audience, evident from his rapidly expanding following. Next, we take a nostalgic trip back to one of our favourite past episodes, featuring a remarkable guest, David Booth, co-founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors. With a quick review of the episode, listeners get a refresher on Booth's sage advice and investment philosophies, reminding us all why this episode remains a standout. For the book segment, Michael Tremblay, a passionate listener, and stoicism expert, reached out to suggest an exploration of The Handbook of Epictetus. We welcome Michael to the show for an enlightening discussion on the principles of stoicism and how they can be applied to investing and everyday life. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing new PWL team member, Mark McGrath. (0:02:22) Background about Mark and his journey to PWL Capital. (0:03:35) What Mark appreciates most about working at PWL: its core values. (0:08:45) Why cash is an extremely risky long-term investment option. (0:11:47) We explore ‘buying the dip’ and expected returns versus return expectations. (0:24:31) Highlights and key takeaways from our conversation with David Booth. (0:29:07) The Handbook of Epictetus and devoted listener Michael Tremblay's background. (0:31:22) Stoicism basics, who Epictetus was, and the key idea behind the philosophy. (0:33:30) How stoicism can benefit everyday investors. (0:36:09) A breakdown of the various ‘tools’ and practices The Stoics developed. (0:39:26) Similarities Stoicism has with the rational reminder approach to investing. (0:43:07) </l
Thu, August 03, 2023
Pim van Vliet: The Volatility Effect, Revisited
Pim van Vliet is on a mission to put the low volatility factor on the map. In his role as Head of Conservative Equities and Chief Quantitative Strategist at Robeco, he focuses on leveraging the effect of low-risk investing. Pim has also published a book, High Returns From Low Risk : A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox, where he unpacks some of the key aspects that guide his work and underpin his success. During this conversation, Pim shares his insights on volatility, the changing market, and combining low-risk with other traditional factors. He equips listeners with key considerations for evaluating strategies or products when allocating low-risk and offers his perspective on out-of-sample-testing, distinguishing between global-factor and cross-sectional premiums, and more. Listeners will get Pim’s perspective on the pros and cons of the Sharpe ratio, and we examine risk-adjusted returns on long and short legs before hearing his Fama-French Five Factor Model analysis. We touch on inflation and gold, and finally, Pim shares his inspiring perspective on success in his financial and personal life. Tune in today to hear more! Key Points From This Episode: Introducing Pim Van Vliet and his mission to put low volatility on the map as a factor. (0:00:41) Defining the low-risk effect with reference to volatility and its impact on other asset classes. (0:04:47) Low-risk portfolio performance in relation to the changing market. (0:12:02) Combining low-risk with other traditional factors. (0:21:43) Considerations for evaluating strategies or products when allocating low-risk. (0:24:35) Out-of-sample testing. (0:31:28) Distinguishing between global factor premiums and cross-sectional premiums. (0:35:18) Weighing the pros and cons of the Sharpe ratio as an evaluation tool. (0:40:19) Examining the risk-adjusted returns of long and short legs. (0:41:20) Issues with the Fama-French Five Factor Model. (0:44:37) Why factor premiums vary through inflation regimes. (0:50:41) How an allocation to gold holds up as a downside hedge. (0:52:53) Pim’s definition of success in his life. (0:56:31) Links: Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-264-pim-van-vliet-the-volatility-effect-revisited-discussion-thread/24622 Book From Today’s Episode: High Returns From Low Risk: A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox — https://amzn.to/3rMkJxQ Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes —
S2 E263 · Thu, July 27, 2023
A Tribute to Harry Markowitz with Alex Potts & 7 Steps to a Better Portfolio with Edward Goodfellow
With the recent passing of Harry Markowitz, we wanted to take this opportunity to spend some time honoring this giant of financial economics. Joining us on today's episode is our friend Alex Potts, who shares some of his touching memories of Harry, and talks about the unmistakable impact he had on the field. Harry is commonly viewed as the father of modern portfolio theory but also might be considered the grandfather of behavioural finance and a huge proponent of intelligent diversification. Alex graciously shares the nine lessons he learned from Harry, a few 'Harryisms' and some fond and surprising anecdotes from the time he spent with the man. Following this, we welcome Edward Goodfellow to the show to explore his new book, 7 Steps to A Better Portfolio. Edward is a fellow Canadian financial advisor, and we get to hear from him about the motivations for his book, its intended audience, and his insight into a host of central and familiar themes that we deal with on the show, so join us to hear it all. Key Points From This Episode: Looking back on the irreplaceable contributions of Harry Markowitz. (0:05:24) Alex talks about reaching out and meeting Harry in 2010. (0:10:00) Harry's amazing work ethic, unusual approach to problem-solving, and the nine lessons that Alex learned from him. (0:14:23) Edward shares his motivations for writing 7 Steps to A Better Portfolio, the questions that gave it structure, and its intended audience. (0:25:53) Understanding math and emotion, the four questions to ask before investing, and dangerous investment personalities and influencers. (0:29:39) Categorizing the different types of risk we encounter as investors, and the role of predictions and expectations. (0:35:41) Charting the evolution of a strategy over time, how to reassess and determine risk tolerance, and evaluating performance. (0:38:06) Edward describes different types of active and passive investing and the seven steps from his book. (0:40:26) Comparing financial science and active management research, and how to manage strategy risk. (0:49:42) How Edward looks at the value of financial advice and his biggest takeaway from writing the book. (0:52:58) The best way to approach figuring out the contradictions in the world of finance. (0:54:24) Today's after-show featuring listener reviews, community updates, and future episode guests. (0:56:20) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-263-a-tribute-to-harry-markowitz-with-alex-potts-7-steps-to-a-better-portfolio-with-edward-goodfellow-discussion-thread/24528 Book From Today’s E
S2 E262 · Thu, July 20, 2023
Francisco Gomes: Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle
Household finance has grown considerably as a field of study in recent years. And with the decrease in defined benefits pension plans, households are increasingly needing to take more responsibility for their own financial fates (much more so than they needed to in the past). Joining us today to discuss household finance and the growing importance of households in the economy, is Professor Francisco Gomes. Francisco is a Professor of Finance at London Business School and earned his PhD in economics at Harvard with his main areas of expertise being household finance, capital markets, asset allocation, and macroeconomics. In our expansive conversation with Francisco, we discuss the increasingly important role of households in the economy, how this has contributed to household finance becoming a more prominent field of study, and what can be done to make sure that academic findings reach, and positively impact, households. Francisco shares a detailed outline of what he’s learned from his research, covering topics like level of education, automation at work, peer effects, and culture, with explanations of how these elements can impact household financial decisions. We also learn about his passion for financial literacy, why he is such a big proponent of ensuring that everyone has access to a quality personal finance education, and the personal finance course he currently teaches at London Business School. To learn more from Francisco about the study of household finance and how to improve outcomes for households, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: What it means to maximize your wealth over your lifetime and the crucial ratio determining optimal asset allocation. (0:02:53) How optimal asset allocation changes over your life cycle and how our human capital diminishes with age. (0:08:08) Building a buffer stock of wealth and the evidence that people become more comfortable with risk as they get richer. (0:10:03) The importance of simplifying life cycle asset allocation models to help households make decisions and have a tangible impact on people’s lives. (0:16:28) The biggest gap between theory and what households do; not investing in stocks. (0:20:32) An overview of the biggest mistakes people make when they invest in stocks and why it ties back to financial literacy. (0:23:49) How the process of optimizing asset allocation changes at retirement, the importance of hedging longevity risk, and why annuities are so useful. (0:25:40) A rundown of some of the reasons behind why annuity uptake is so low and why it is often referred to as the annuity puzzle. (0:29:20) The impact of automation in the workplace on household wealth accumulation and how exposure to automation is measured. (0:35:02) How one’s level of education affects the interaction between automation and wealth and how households should respond to automa
S2 E261 · Thu, July 13, 2023
Episode 261: Structured Products with Felix Fattinger and Petra Vokata & Jill Schlesinger
Our focus for today's episode is the topic of structured products and we welcome two expert guests to weigh in with their research and insight on the subject. Felix Fattinger is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Vienna Graduate School of Finance whose research focuses on complexity from a number of perspectives. Petra Vokata is an Assistant Professor of Finance at Ohio State University, currently working in areas of household finance, financial innovation, and consumer financial protection. Both Felix and Petra offer some amazing takeaways for retail investors, deftly balancing the data with their ability to read it and implement the lessons we should learn about structured products. We then welcome Jill Schlesinger back to the show to talk about her new book, The Great Money Reset. We hear from her about the process of writing the book, her aims for its publications, and the main questions it can help individuals answer. Felix Fattinger thanks his co-authors Marc Chesney, Jonathan Krakow (both University of Zurich) and Simon Straumann (WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management). Key Points From This Episode: Felix talks about his interest in complexity and how to understand the three different types of structured products. (0:07:23) The definition of headline rates and their relationship to expected returns. (0:18:23) Laying out the biggest lessons from Felix's research; price competition regulation, expected returns, and simulating portfolios. (0:32:21) Petra shares her reasons for researching structured products and what she focuses on. (0:40:36) The doubts Petra has about YEPs, the evolution of their fee structure, and estimating their expected returns. (0:49:02) The YEP index and how it can help investors mitigate certain issues. (1:02:42) Actions by banks that increase headline rates of return and how this relates to expected returns. (1:06:56) Unpacking the biggest lesson from Petra's research about understanding fees and payoff. (1:10:12) A 60-second recap of Jill Schlesinger's previous episode with us. (1:14:53) Explaining the idea of the 'great money reset' and why Jill's latest book was so much easier to write than her first one. (1:17:22) Jill shares the five steps to go through before a reset and expands on the important considerations. (1:21:33) Tips for negotiating with your boss and final thoughts on approaching a financial reset. (1:32:04) Today's after-show; recent time off, listener reviews, community and event updates, and a song from RootHub. (1:41:22) Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — <a hr
Thu, July 06, 2023
Prof. James Choi: Practical Finance
Today we welcome James Choi, Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management, to the show to share some of his insight into what he has dubbed practical finance. James has focused his research on behavioural finance, behavioural economics, household finance, capital markets, health economics, and sociology, and is turning this expertise into pragmatic knowledge marketed towards ordinary people. This reframing and reconfiguration of the theory for all people and the decisions they make, could not be more in line with what we are trying to do here at Rational Reminder, and this conversation with James was packed with so many surprising and informative responses to relatable questions. We ask James about index funds, the benefits of advisors, optimal equity, diversification, and much more. We also spend a little bit of time exploring the individual reasons that people have for their decisions, with James expanding on the disconnect between people's philosophy and their actions. Further topics include the role and impact of education, renting versus buying, and the formulation of his concept of practical finance, so make sure to join us and catch it all. Key Points From This Episode: The failure of economic theory to explain everyday financial decisions. (0:03:03) A little about James' course on personal finance at Yale. (0:06:29) Economic theory and popular personal finance advice on optimal savings and consumption. (0:12:06) Looking at economic theory and popular personal finance's suggestions about optimal equity allocations for households. (0:19:33) The kinds of personal aversions people have towards their finances. (0:27:07) The impact that James' survey research has had on his perspectives on equity. (0:29:42) Practical application of economic theory to household decisions. (0:32:29) Increased awareness of the benefits of index funds. (0:42:59) James shares a few famous economists' investment strategies. (0:44:11) Some thoughts on approaches to and avoidance of diversification. (0:45:48) Differentiating between mistakes and unique behaviours we cannot justify. (0:52:26) The efficacy of education, financial advice, and personal experience in improving investment decisions. (0:55:44) Liquid and illiquid assets and renting versus buying property. (1:02:26) James talks about his excitement around his current work in practical finance. (1:07:50) How James defines success at this point in his life. (1:09:52) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-260-prof-james-choi-practical-finance-discussion-thread/24227 Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Re
S2 E259 · Thu, June 29, 2023
Episode 259: Comprehensive Overview: Estimating Expected Returns
Join us as we present a compilation of segments on expected returns and the dynamics that shape investment outcomes. We deep dive into the world of financial predictions and gain a comprehensive understanding of how expected returns influence your financial decision-making. We also go back to the episode with Dr. Brian Portnoy where we delved into his book, The Geometry of Wealth. Lastly, joining our conversation is our colleague Matt Gour who discusses The Power of Moments by Chip and Dan Heath. We discuss how extraordinary moments have the power to shape our lives and the pivotal importance of crafting unforgettable experiences. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: What Pressor Fama had to say about expected returns. (0:03:35) Looking at returns through a historical lens with Professor Goetzmann. (0:08:23) Professor Cederburg explains the usefulness of historical data. (0:11:38) Hear Professor Cochrane’s perspective on expected returns. (0:15:19) Professor Cornell shares his contrasting view on historical returns. (0:23:41) We recap our discussion with Professor French about uncertainty. (0:34:23) Breaking down the conventional viewpoint of uncertainty with Professor Pastor. (0:38:34) A brief overview of our approach to estimating expected returns. (0:44:03) Highlights from our conversation with Dr. Brian Portnoy about his book. (0:47:56) Matt Gour joins us for our weekly book review of The Power of Moments . (0:51:15) He shares an impactful moment from his childhood. (0:54:04) We unpack a main takeaway from the book: the peak-end rule. (0:56:23) The four elements needed to create a defining moment. (0:57:51) Learn about the different types of defining moments. (1:01:02) How to be deliberate about creating powerful moments. (1:01:02) Main takeaways from the book. (1:04:55) The aftershow, planned meetups, upcoming projects, and more. (1:07:15) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-259-comprehensive-overview-estimating-expected-returns-discussion-thread/24077 Book From Today’s Episode: The Geometry of Wealth: How to shape a life of money and meaning — https://amzn.to/46qpjl5 The Power of Moments: Why Certain Experiences Have Extraordinary Impact — https://amzn.to/3pmYJJb Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podca
Thu, June 22, 2023
Episode 258: Prof. Meir Statman: Financial Decisions for Normal People
Behavioural finance provides a realistic and comprehensive framework for understanding financial markets and decision-making. Incorporating insights from psychology, it enhances our understanding of investor behaviour, market dynamics, and risk management, leading to more effective investment strategies and improved financial outcomes. In this episode, Professor Meir Statman, a renowned expert in finance and behavioural finance, takes us on a captivating journey through the intriguing world of maximizing well-being through finance. Professor Statman is a distinguished financial expert and a leading authority in the field of behavioural finance. His groundbreaking research has shaped the understanding of investor behaviour and its impact on financial decision-making. Through his academic contributions and practical insights, Professor Statman has become a trusted guide in navigating the complex intersection of finance and human behaviour. In our conversation, he unravels the secrets of maximizing well-being through finance and the intricacies of the field. We explore the captivating world of behavioural finance and its connection to efficient markets, the distinction between normal and rational investors, the allure of lottery-like assets, and the downsides of consuming dividends. We unpack the aversion to realizing losses and the debate between dollar-cost averaging and lump-sum investing. We delve into the rising popularity of alternative investment strategies, the influence of status on rational investor behaviour, the role of financial advisors, and much more. Tune in for this enlightening conversation that will not only reshape your understanding of finance but human behaviour too. Key Points From This Episode: Defining what behavioural finance is and how it relates to efficient markets. (0:04:37) How traditional financial economists responded to Professor Statman's early behavioural work and the current state of behavioural finance research. (0:06:12) The various generations of behavioural finance and how they differ. (0:08:51) Differences between a normal investor and a rational one. (0:13:10) What investors really want and why normal investors like lottery-like assets. (0:15:48) Reasons normal investors have a preference for cash dividends. (0:20:17) Downsides of consuming dividends and not capital. (0:22:09) Unpacking why normal investors are averse to realizing losses. (0:25:40) Dollar-cost averaging versus lump sum investing. (0:27:57) The popularity of alternative investment strategies to normal investors. (0:31:13) Insights about the difference between an error and what a person wants. (0:34:49) The influence of status on rational investor behaviour and whether financial advisors should cater for elevating status. (0:36:37) Currency hedging, regret, the value of financial literacy, and th
Thu, June 15, 2023
Giorgio Ugazio (Mr. RIP): Life Design, In Progress
What are your guiding philosophies on work and life? And how do they influence your daily decisions and the trajectory of your career? If these questions feel somewhat daunting, and you aren’t sure how to answer them, then this episode is a great place to start! Joining us today is Giorgio Ugazio, a self-described content creator, startup founder, and father. Giorgio is a software engineer by training, with a Master's degree in Artificial Intelligence and robotics, and spent over seven years working at Google. He is the founder of Retire In Progress, a blog where he shares his thoughts on life, work, achieving financial independence, and retiring early. The platform has amassed a dedicated following thanks to Giorgio’s many unique insights on life, design, and living intentionally. In today’s conversation, we talk with Giorgio about the underpinnings of his philosophies, the excellent book Designing Your Life: How to Build a Well-Lived, Joyful Life , and how his interpretation of it clarified his perspectives on life and work. We discuss the key tenets in Designing Your Life along with how you can use its many tools and exercises to determine your current position, assess your value, and define your compass. Giorgio goes on to share the thinking behind his foundational beliefs, like why you shouldn’t play the status game, before reflecting on who he believes would benefit most from reading Designing Your Life . To hear all of Giorgio’s fascinating insights and how to incrementally build your model of life, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: A quick recap and review of episode 100 with Professor Ken French. (0:02:57) Introducing Giorgio Ugazio, aka Mr. RIP, his website, Retire Your Life, and how you can access his extensive notes on the book Designing Your Life online. (0:05:16) An overview of Designing Your Life , guidance on how to classify problems, and a breakdown of what it means to prototype solutions. (0:08:49) Insight into the tools, exercises, and processes that the book offers: how it helps you determine where you are, assess your value, and define your compass. (0:13:05) How to do the Odyssey Planning exercises. (0:16:22) The four key areas covered in the book, why Giorgio added the categories learning, money, and creativity, and how he incorporates lessons from the book into his life. (0:18:18) Determining your views on life and work, and how the two interact. (0:21:54) The Pomodoro technique: what it is, and how to use it. (0:23:12) Giorgio’s perspective on work: why we do it, the purpose it serves, and the criteria he uses to assess his position. (0:25:11) What you learn when you take money out of the equation, why you should ignore the status game, and the importance of finding ways to enjoy your life. (0:29:46) Giorgio’s view on life, the p
Thu, June 08, 2023
Prof. Hal Hershfield: Your Future Self
How does the connection we have with our future self impact the decisions we make today? And what active steps can we take to improve our connection with our future selves? Today on the show we welcome back Hal Hershfield, whose new book Your Future Self: How to Make Tomorrow Better Today delves into the science of our relationship with our future selves and what we can do to change it for the better. In our conversation with Hal, we discuss the concept of the self, how we change over time, and why so many of us feel disconnected from our future selves. He describes the research surrounding these subjects and their findings, including how the brain scans they performed demonstrate that we mostly see our future selves as strangers, and why this is caused, at least in part, by the fact that our future selves don’t technically exist yet. We also discuss the interventions that have been shown to improve our relationship with our future selves, like viewing age-progressed images or exchanging letters with our future selves, and why everyone responds to these interventions differently. Having a strong connection with your future self has many benefits. It means you’re more likely to make decisions that will serve you later in life, like saving for retirement, eating healthily, and exercising regularly. But Hal also warns that we risk losing sight of the present and what truly matters when we focus solely on the future. To hear all of Hal’s knowledgeable insights on this topic and what he wants to explore next, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: Defining the self and how our identity shifts depending on age, context, and the people we surround ourselves with. (0:04:08) An overview of Hal’s research and what it reveals about how most people connect (or don’t connect) to their future selves. (0:08:29) How empathy can influence our connection to our future selves. (0:11:36) Insights into why we tend to think of our future self the same way we think about strangers or acquaintances. (0:14:19) Our level of connection to our future self and how it affects wealth accumulation and financial well-being. (0:17:53) The definition of ‘present bias’ and ‘hyperbolic discounting’ and the role they play in decisions about the future. (0:19:28) The end-of-history illusion and the impact it has on our decisions. (0:23:02) How viewing age-progressed images of yourself can help you build a connection with your future self. (0:26:35) The research Hal is conducting with MIT Media Lab using an AI chatbot called Future You. (0:29:35) © 2023 Rational Reminder Podcast 1 RRP 256 Show Notes Dan Pink’s work on the power of regret and how it overlaps with Hal’s research and findings. (0:31:59)
S2 E255 · Thu, June 01, 2023
Structured Products (Plus Just Keep Buying with Nick Maggiulli)
Structured products can offer unique investment opportunities and customization but also come with risks and complexities. It is vital to thoroughly understand the product's structure, risks, and potential returns before investing. In this episode, we delve into the value of structured products and recap a past episode about the philosophy of money before continuing our focus on reading and finance by diving into the book, Just Keep Buying by Nick Maggiulli. Nick is a highly regarded author known for his insightful and engaging works on finance and investing. With a passion for demystifying complex financial concepts, Nick has earned a reputation for his ability to present information in a clear and accessible manner. His ability to blend storytelling with data-driven insights made his articles immensely popular among readers of all backgrounds. We discuss the pros and cons of financial products, why investors prefer them, the dark side of structured products, and what investors need to avoid. We recap a past episode with Barry Ritholtz about the philosophy of money and the main takeaways from our conversation with him. Then, we delve into Just Keep Buying and the invaluable lessons and uncover hidden gems it offers readers before speaking to Nick about savings and investing. We discuss the best strategies for investing, how to spend your money comfortably, why you should never wait for the markets to dip, and much more. To learn everything about structured products and valuable insights about saving and investing, tune in now. Key Points From This Episode: • Learn about structured products and what they offer investors. (0:03:12) • Why structured products can be a problem for investors. (0:07:00) <p class="MsoNormal" style= "margin-left: 12.0pt; text-indent: -12.0pt; line-height: 120%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; border: none; mso-padding-alt: 31.0
Thu, May 25, 2023
David Blanchett: Regret Optimized Portfolios, and Optimal Retirement Income
There are many different objective functions you can use when building optimal portfolios. The majority of these approaches define risk from the perspective of variability or bad outcomes, but positive returns could be viewed as “risky” for those that don’t experience them, which is another way of saying that people experience regret (or FOMO, for our trendier listeners). Today, we are joined by David Blanchett, a return guest and the Managing Director and Head of Retirement Research for PGIM DC Solutions, the global investment management arm of Prudential Financial. He is also an Adjunct Professor of Wealth Management at The American College of Financial Services and a Research Fellow for the Alliance for Lifetime Income. David returns to the podcast for an articulate discussion about regret in portfolio construction, what drives it, and how financial advisors can cater to it. We then delve into how David is redefining optimal retirement income strategies, looking at retirement tools, retirement planning, compensation models in the industry, risk exposures, and portfolios. We also get a high-level overview of some of the fascinating work that David has done on home-country bias, plus so much more. For highly technical content presented in an accessible and practical way by one of the brightest minds in retirement planning, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: • Differences between risk aversion and regret aversion. (0:03:57) • The distinctly human element that drives “investment FOMO.” (0:06:34) • Insight into how David models regret in his research. (0:09:06) • The asset pricing implications of approaching portfolio optimization this way. (0:12:11) • Tips for deciding on what the regret benchmark should be. (0:13:19) • How a portfolio optimization routine based on regret affects asset allocation. (0:14:08) • Ways that the effect of optimizing over regret changes depending on risk aversion. (0:16:55) • Other asset characteristics that might drive optimal allocation to regret assets. (0:18:04) • Why moving away from self-direction is the best thing to happen to 401(k) plans. (0:20:53) • How financial advisors should cater to investors interested in speculative assets. (0:24:00) • Unpacking some of the social and story-driven sources of regret. (0:29:03) • Downsides to modelling retirement liability as a static inflation-adjusted amount. (0:32:00) • Why it’s important to understand the composition of retiree spending and saving. (0:33:57) • David’s research into dynamic spending rules for retirement planning. (0:42:06) • Some of the key pitfalls of existing financial planning tools and solutions. (0:44:38) • Ways that safe withdrawal rates change when you incorporate dynamic spending. (0:51:10) • How advisor channel affects passive fund choice and how clients should respond. (0:57:56) • Insight into David’s research on foreign revenue and home-country bias. (1:02:27) Links From To
S2 E253 · Thu, May 18, 2023
Complex Financial Instruments with Prof. Paul Calluzzo (Plus Sean Silcoff on Losing the Signal)
We have two guests joining us for this episode of the Rational Reminder podcast. First up, we have Paul Calluzzo, who is the Assistant Professor of Finance and Toller Family Fellow of Finance in the Smith School of Business at Queen's University in Kingston. Paul joins us today to discuss the findings in his paper, ‘ Complex Instruments Have Increased Risk and Reduced Performance at Mutual Funds ’. He explains the motivation for the paper, the research it expands upon, and the types of complex instrument allowances it investigates. We discuss reverse causality and find out how complex instrument allowance is related to fund performance and risk, respectively, before hearing Paul’s investment advice. For the second half of the show, we are joined by the author of Losing the Signal: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of BlackBerry , Sean Silcoff to discuss the BlackBerry revolution and its subsequent decline, and the film adaptation of the book. Tune in for our guests’ insights into best practices for investors and business leaders alike. Key Points From This Episode: • Housekeeping: check out our CE courses and reach out for financial advice. (0:02:25) • An introduction to Paul Calluzzo and our conversation with him about the impact of complex financial instruments on mutual funds. (0:05:20) • The motivation for the paper, ‘Complex Instruments Have Increased Risk and Reduced Performance at Mutual Funds’, the research it expands upon, and the types of complex instrument allowances it investigates. (0:07:50) • Reverse causality relating to complex instruments and mutual funds, and the mechanisms that could potentially harm investors in funds using complex instruments. (0:12:37) • How the performance of funds was evaluated in the paper and how the usage of complex instruments evolved throughout the sample. (0:18:12) • How complex instrument allowance is related to fund performance and risk. (0:23:06) • The asymmetry of return patterns in up and down markets. (0:26:11) • Paul’s investment advice, in the context of the paper’s findings. (0:33:05) • Why complex products are growing despite their poor performance and how research can reach the market. (0:37:05) • A quick recap of episode 39 with Rob Carrick. (0:40:48) • Our brief review of Losing the Signal: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of BlackBerry by Sean Silcoff and Jacquie McNish. (0:41:49) • Sean Silcoff breaks down the BlackBerry revolution and its subsequent demise. (0:44:53) • Insight into the film adaptation of the book and what makes it such a compelling story. (1:04:51) • What business leaders and investors can ta
S2 E252 · Thu, May 11, 2023
Prof. Burton Malkiel: 50 Years of A Random Walk Down Wall Street (EP.252)
Understanding market efficiency is an important part of investment decision-making. It can help investors to identify the most appropriate investment strategies and develop realistic expectations for their returns. In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we sit down with Professor Burton Malkiel, the renowned economist, and author of the classic investing book A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Professor Malkiel is a distinguished figure in the world of economics and academia. He holds the prestigious title of Chemical Bank Chairman's Professor of Economics Emeritus and Senior Economist at Princeton, where he has made significant contributions to the field over the years. In our conversation, we discuss Professor Malkiel’s views on the stock market, the efficient market hypothesis, how behavioural finance relates to investing, and why index funds should be at the core of every portfolio. Throughout the episode, Professor Malkiel shares his insights on a wide range of topics related to personal finance and investing, including the benefits of index funds, the dangers of active stock picking, the impact of fees and taxes on investment returns, factor investing, and expensive asset classes. He also discusses research on socially responsible investing and how investors can incorporate ethical considerations into their portfolios without sacrificing performance. In this episode, listeners will gain a better understanding of the vital principles of investing and how to apply them to achieve their financial goals. Whether you're a novice investor or an experienced pro, this episode offers valuable insights and advice from one of the most respected economists in the field, Professor Malkiel. Key Points From This Episode: Professor Malkiel explains the efficient market hypothesis and what the term “efficient market” means. (0:03:42) What the media tends to get wrong about the concept of market efficiency and the mathematical theory behind a random walk market. (0:07:04) We discuss investing in index funds rather than actively managed strategies. (0:09:44) How his book, Random Walk, was received by professionals and academics in the industry (0:13:08) Hear about the inspiration behind the concept covered in his book, and how his investment advice has changed over the last 50 years. (0:19:18) Why index funds have become widely accepted, and the difference between investing and speculating. (0:23:38) He unpacks why past market bubbles are vital for managers to understand and shares some wise words for those who want to participate in market speculation investing. (0:28:21) How the existence and persistence of bubbles throughout history relate to markets being efficient. (0:32:10) Find out how the multiple, non-diversifiable risks in today’s financi
S2 E251 · Thu, May 04, 2023
Covered Calls (Plus Robin Powell and Jonathan Hollow on How to Fund the Life You Want)
We all have different levels of risk tolerance. But how is that risk measured for complex investment strategies like covered calls? And how can you be sure it's an accurate reflection of reality? For the first portion of today’s episode, we provide a detailed breakdown of everything you need to know about covered calls and why there is no perfect model for assessing risk-adjusted returns. We examine how incorrect measures of risk can make covered calls seem more attractive, what investors need to know about covered calls, and the fees, costs, and taxes you should be considering with these types of strategies. Next, we are joined by lifelong friends and colleagues Jonathan Hollow and Robin Powell to discuss their new book How to Fund the Life You Want: What everyone needs to know about savings, pensions and investments . They describe how their shared passion for financial education motivated them to write their book, before explaining how readers can best use the accompanying workbook to identify and reach their financial goals. Robin and Jonathan then go on to share their advice on day-to-day money management, finding a trustworthy advisor, and why it’s never too early to teach your child about money. Tune in for a detailed breakdown of covered calls and how to make informed decisions about your investments and finances! Key Points From This Episode: An introduction to the concept of covered calls. (0:02:41) The definition of covered calls, how risk can be measured incorrectly to make covered call strategies look more attractive, and why risk can never be destroyed. (0:04:22) A breakdown of the assets involved in covered calls and why their yields can be misleading. (0:07:00) Why there is no perfect model for assessing risk-adjusted returns and what can be learned from looking at investors through a behavioural lens. (0:16:19) An overview of why fees, costs, and taxes are major considerations for these types of strategies. (0:20:15) Introducing Robin Powell, Jonathan Hollow and their new book How to Fund the Life You Want . (0:25:08) Jonathan and Robin’s long friendship, their shared interest in financial education, why they saw a need for their book, and how readers can get the most out of their workbook. (0:30:45) Insight into the six rules that Robin and Jonathan outline in their book and the eight keywords that they set up for managing money day to day. (0:35:07) Advice on how to keep up with finance news, including what you should pay attention to and what you can ignore. (0:40:37) The importance of a day-to-day savings habit and suggestions on what kids should be taught about money. (0:43:20) Advice on how to find a first-rate advisor based on your needs and what questions you need to be asking of them. (0:49:54) How your financial advisor should act as your financial bodyguard and complement y
S2 E250 · Thu, April 27, 2023
Prof. John Y. Campbell: Financial Decisions for Long-term Investors
Navigating the world of finance and investing is undeniably complicated, sometimes unnecessarily so. And all too often the people who end up making the most costly financial mistakes are those who can least afford to do so. But what exactly needs to change in order for more people to make wise and well-informed financial decisions? And how do we go about implementing those changes? Joining us today to help us unpack this topic and the many decisions involved in the world of investing is John Y. Campbell, a British-American economist, professor of economics at Harvard, and founding partner at Arrowstreet Capital, a systematic asset management firm based in Boston. John has published over a hundred of articles on a range of topics including fixed income, equality valuation, portfolio choices, and household finance, all of which we explore in today’s expansive conversation. We kick things off by discussing utility theory, why it’s so important to the study of finance, and what it can teach us about risk aversion, before delving into portfolio structure, asset allocation, and hedging. John also expands on the study of household finance, the mistakes that households typically make, why household behaviour tends to differ from theoretical predictions, and how to bring theory and behaviour into alignment. We wrap things up by discussing how financial literacy, education, and regulation can improve outcomes for households before hearing John’s advice on selecting an optimal mortgage contract along with an overview of the type of risk that mortgage contracts expose you to. Today’s episode is jam-packed with information and insights from a profoundly knowledgeable figure in academia. Key Points From This Episode: • An overview of asset pricing theory; unpacking the utility function in finance, what it teaches us about being risk averse, and how it is used to determine the value we place on any amount of money. (0:04:01) • The implications of using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for portfolio choice. (0:13:58) • The difference between arbitrage pricing theory and the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). (0:18:15) • How predictability in stock returns affects portfolio advice for long-term investors and why John prefers the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. (0:23:40) • Why a long-term inflation index bond is the ideal risk-free asset for a long-term investor, and how portfolio advice, concerning bonds, changes when inflation index bonds are not available. (0:28:32) • The impact that labour income should have on optimal portfolio choice and the relationship between human capital and financial assets as you age. (0:35:31) • Learn about John’s 2004 paper entitled ‘Bad Beta, Good Beta’ and how intertemporal
S2 E249 · Thu, April 20, 2023
What are financial advisors (measurably) useful for?
Our focus for this episode is the real utility of financial advisors, and Ben shares a host of research and findings about the supposed and actual value that advisors can offer investors. This segment continues our exploration of investment basics, a fundamental theme for this show and our work at PWL Capital. One of the biggest and clearest lessons that becomes apparent through this discussion is the need for financial literacy independent of advice and so-called expertise from the outside. With that said, we do find time to share some of the positives investors can accrue from dealing with a trustworthy advisor and the conditions necessary for this. Later in the episode, our colleague Lukas Fleck joins us to share his review of The Obstacle Is the Way by Ryan Holiday and some of his own reading habits and tips. We finish the episode with lighter content about hot sauces, TV shows, and Ben's latest home improvement. Key Points From This Episode: • Introducing today's question about the usefulness of financial advisors. (0:03:35) • Common financial mistakes made by households. (0:11:13) • Some of the research and findings grounding today's discussion. (0:18:13) • Investing and self-control; what we can learn from data about smokers. (0:22:49) • Looking at some of the potential benefits of hiring an advisor for investors. (0:28:40) • A quick review of Episode 43 with Dave Butler from 2019. (0:34:07) • Today's book review of The Obstacle Is the Way, with Lukas Fleck, and some of the biggest takeaways. (0:36:43) • A look at Lukas' reading habits, favourite recent books, and his increased focus on getting through books. (0:44:59) • Advice for starting a book club and Lukas' reading hacks. (0:50:49) • The after-show; Ben tells us about his basketball hoop, last week's episode of Succession , and the hot sauce debate. (0:54:44) • Upcoming events, audience reviews, and future guests on the podcast. (0:58:31) Ad mentioned by Ben: Video: https://www.reddit.com/user/AMF_Quebec/comments/11rzoc9/les_risques_de_fraude_avec_les_cryptos_sont_bien/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&utm_content=1&utm_term=15 Text: https://lautorite.qc.ca/en/ge
S2 E248 · Thu, April 13, 2023
Prof. William Goetzmann: Learning from Financial Market History
How the financial system works and how we interact with it has grown in complex ways and is a fascinating but nuanced topic. To guide us through the history of the economy is Professor William Goetzmann, who is an expert in finance, economics and art history, and whose research has been featured in top publications. As a highly respected scholar, he's authored numerous books on topics such as real estate and behavioural finance. It is fair to say Professor Goetzmann's work has left a significant impact on both academia and the world. In our conversation, we dive into financial market history and explore more than just broad market returns. We unpack the fascinating phenomenon of economic bubbles and booms, and how they have evolved and shaped the financial system. He also shares crucial insights from the past and advice for investors looking to leverage the market. And to wrap things up, Professor Goetzmann shares his views on money after digging deep into its historical roots. Tune in to unlock the secrets of the past and gain valuable insights for the future as we journey through the fascinating world of economic history. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: • Why is it important to collect and examine long-term historical returns data, and how useful the findings can be for today’s market. (0:03:21) • The furthest back in time that Professor William Goetzmann has looked at equity returns and how much of an issue survivorship bias is in long-term historical data. (0:05:44) • Reasons for the United States market trends concerning equity risk premiums and his approach to forecasting long-term returns of both stocks and bonds. (0:11:02) • Whether current discount rates are better for estimating future returns than long-term historical returns. (0:17:08) • How the markets of today compare to the markets of the 1900s, and whether investor behaviour has changed. (0:18:42) • Learn how global finance changed after the First World War and how likely a global financial meltdown is. (0:23:35) • What to consider when investing internationally and whether Canadian investors should be biased towards their home country. (0:28:23) • Hear Professor Goetzmann’s definition of an asset price bubble and his approach to studying economic bubbles and booms. (0:32:44) • Overview of the economic bubble and boom trends and crucial advice he has for investors regarding a market run-up. (0:36:18) • An explanation for negative bubble behaviour and how well market crashes align with investor expectations. (0:41:46) • The role of media in influencing investor behaviour, and whether long-term investors should ignore news from the financial media. (0:47:35) <p class="p1
S2 E247 · Thu, April 06, 2023
Bank Runs (plus Jonathan Clements on "My Money Journey")
There’s been a lot of interest in the topic of bank runs lately, and in today’s episode, we take a look at the most relevant research to help us better understand why they happen and how they can be avoided. Our conversation unpacks the 2022 Nobel prize-winning work of Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig and examines the three primary risks that banks need to navigate to avoid a bank run related crisis. We discuss the immense value that banks provide and how they keep the economy moving, before reflecting on how their most valuable services are inexorably tied to the risk of bank runs. You’ll also learn about the role of the media in triggering a bank run, and how the problems that arise with bank runs can be addressed through a combination of deposit insurance, bank regulation, and a diverse customer base — all of which are designed to keep depositors from panicking simultaneously. We also revisit a past conversation with Jonathan Clements, before catching up with him in real time to discuss his new book My Money Journey: How 30 People Found Financial Freedom - and You Can Too . Tune in for an in-depth look at bank runs, the value of writing your money story, and a timely reminder that when you’re making a deposit, you’re actually lending money to the bank. Key Points From This Episode: • An introduction to the topic of bank runs including an overview of the Nobel prize-winning work done on the subject in 2022. (0:02:12) • The three primary risks you need to manage as a bank in order to be a successful business. (0:07:28) • Why liquidity, illiquidity, and duration risk can pose a problem, even for healthy banks. (0:12:47) • How news stories can create unwarranted panic and cause a bank run, even if a bank isn’t experiencing problems. (0:16:02) • The multiple equilibria of banks as outlined in the Diamond and Dybvig paper. (0:16:31) • How deposit insurance can function as a solution, at least in part, to bank runs. (0:19:34) • What the Diamond and Dybvig paper teaches us about the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) bank run. (0:21:35) • The difference between households and banks, and the lessons households can learn from the narrative around bank runs. (0:22:59) • A quick recap of our conversation with Jonathan Clements and a review of his new book My Money Journey: How 30 People Found Financial Freedom - and You Can Too . (0:27:16) • We welcome Jonathan Clements back onto the show to discuss his new book and why he wrote it. (0:32:00) • What readers can expect to learn from Jonathan’s book, like the impact parents have on your financial beliefs, and what inspires people to reassess their finances. (0:34:31) • The impact o
S2 E246 · Thu, March 30, 2023
Daniel H. Pink: How to Use Regret
Human beings are undeniably complex, and what motivates us can often be a mystery, even to ourselves. So, how do we go about gathering and analyzing the data that will help us answer the most fundamental questions about our lives and our purpose? The answers may lie in an unexpectedly rich source of knowledge, our regrets. While regret is likely to have a decidedly negative connotation for most of us, it is also extremely powerful and can teach us a great deal about ourselves and what we value. It is an emotion that is present in all of us, and social scientists (like anthropologists and sociologists) have been fascinated by the subject for decades. Today on the show, we are joined by one such expert, Daniel Pink, author of the book The Power of Regret: How Looking Backward Moves Us Forward . In our conversation, Daniel shares details about the research he conducted for his book, how he determined the four main categories of regret, and what we can learn from our regrets by confronting them head-on. We also discuss Daniel’s 2011 New York Times Bestselling title, Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us , and what he thinks about working from home in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Daniel is an exceptional storyteller and is highly knowledgeable on the subjects of regret, motivation, and the important role they play in our lives. To learn more about the many facets of regret and how it can help you thrive, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: ● Understanding regret as an emotion, why it differs from disappointment, and how regret can help us make better decisions. (0:03:00) ● The four main types of regret (foundation, boldness, moral, and connections) and the methodology Daniel used to determine them. (0:07:30) ● The role that outcomes play when it comes to boldness regrets. (0:13:09) ● Why Daniel believes connection regret is so common, and what regret reveals about our values. (0:14:13) ● The World Regret Survey that Daniel conducted as a systematic survey of regret, and his findings that regrets of inaction tend to stay with us much longer. (0:17:14) ● What people can learn from past financial decisions that they regret and the challenge of addressing foundation regrets. (0:20:42) ● The surprising benefits of regrets and how to learn from them. (0:21:31) ● How regret anticipation can be used to help people save for retirement. (0:22:46) ● Daniel’s system for addressing feelings of regret, why it’s important to confront them rather than wallow in them, and the importance of being kind to yourself. (0:24:01) ● The overwhelming amount of decisions we make in our lives, when to choose the best versus someth
S2 E245 · Thu, March 23, 2023
Deeper Goals, and Retiring with Purpose
Goal-setting is essential for personal and professional growth, helping individuals clarify their priorities, stay focused, and achieve success. We are pleased to welcome guests Samantha Lamas and Danielle Labotka to help us unpack the topic of goal-setting and how it relates to finance. Samantha Lamas is a Senior Behavioural Researcher at Morningstar and a recipient of the Montgomery-Warschauer Award for her research in financial planning. Her work centres on investor engagement and the factors that influence an individual's decisions when it comes to investing and managing their finances. As a Behavioral Scientist at Morningstar, Danielle Labotka examines the impact of various cognitive and linguistic factors on investors’ financial decisions. Her research involves studying investors' behaviours, preferences, and attitudes in both everyday and financial planning situations. In our conversation with Samantha and Danielle, we gain insights into financial behaviour and decision-making, the biggest barriers to goal-setting, what deeper goals are, and how to focus on them. Then, we speak to Mark McGrath, who is licensed in insurance, holds several professional designations, including a Chartered Investment Manager and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), and has more than a decade of experience in the industry. Mark tells us the emotional story about his dad, what motivated him to share his experience, and why you need to start thinking about retirement now. Finally, we review a past episode with Dennis Moseley Williams, a book from Will Storr, and go through feedback from the Rational Reminder community. Tune in now! Content Warning: Some of the discussion in this episode is about suicide. If you or someone you know is struggling with thoughts about self-harm, help is available. In Canada: 1.833.456.4566 or at https://suicideprevention.ca/resources/ Key Points From This Episode: • How we became acquainted with the Morningstar team and background about our guests. (0:02:29) • An outline of the common obstacles faced in identifying the correct goals, and how it impacts financial advisors. (0:06:08) • Danielle explains the approach used to analyze qualitative data and how the results compared to the Rational Reminder findings. (0:09:07) • How the goals identified changed as respondents progressed through the survey, and insights gained from the process. (0:11:23) • The main takeaway from the analysis of how people should approach goal-setting and how financial advisors can leverage the research findings. (0:17:53) • Outline of current gaps and what is the next step for behavioural research. (0:20:59) • Find out what compelled Mark to share the tweet about his dad a
S2 E244 · Thu, March 16, 2023
Charles D. Ellis: The Loser's Game
When it comes to the world of investing, there are many options available to consumers. The range of financial products available can be overwhelming and confusing. Additionally, investing is not only about the rate of return but also about what you are investing for and why. To help us unpack this complicated subject is Charles Ellis, a highly respected investment consultant and founder of Greenwich Associates, a strategy firm focused on financial institutions. He is also a famous author and has written several books on the topic of finance and investment, such as Winning the Loser's Game which provides readers with insights into making the best financial decisions in an increasingly unpredictable market. In our conversation, we discuss why indexing is the better investment option, how the investment space has changed over time, tailoring your investment decisions to suit your needs and desires, and why looking at the bigger financial picture is essential. We also delve into why investors can be their own worst enemies, what advisors and investors should avoid, the theme of his book Inside Vanguard, various investment strategies, and much more. Tune in and hear insights on indexing, wise investing, and how to win the ultimate game from industry legend Charles Ellis! Key Points From This Episode: • Charles explains what he means by ‘a loser's game’ and provides examples. (0:03:51) • How the perception of active management has changed since publishing Winning the Loser's Game . (0:08:00) • He unpacks how the market and market competition has changed since 1975. (0:10:33) • Whether the sentiment towards active management has become too negative. (0:17:24) • Discover why Charles thinks indexing is the best and preferred investment option. (0:19:22) • His opinion on low-cost systematic strategies that seek higher expected returns in the market by owning riskier stocks. (0:24:55) • Why investors and advisors should avoid trying to time or beat the market. (0:27:19) • The value and importance of a well-defined investment policy statement. (0:33:34) • Find out how investors can protect themselves from themselves. (0:34:58) • An underappreciated approach that investors can take to be more successful. (0:36:26) • Hear whether fee differentials between index and active strategies are understood well. (0:37:17) • Charles shares how his mindset has changed over the course of his career. (0:41:47) • Find out if institutions and endowments respect low-cost index investing. (0:42:42) • What he thinks about bringing exotic asset classes to retail investors. (0:44:45) <p cla
S2 E243 · Thu, March 09, 2023
The Role of Debt in Financial Planning
Debt can play an essential role in financial planning in several ways, such as financing large purchases, building credit, managing cash flow, and leveraging investments. However, it's important to remember that taking on too much debt can also have negative consequences that could impact your financial future. Therefore, it's vital to carefully consider your options and ensure that any debt you take on is manageable and aligns with your overall financial goals. In this episode, we talk about the essential aspects of debt and the role of debt in financial planning, and we unpack the two major forms of debt. Learn about debt in financial planning, consumption smoothing, the mindset and psychology behind debt, the risk that comes with debt, how credit cards impact how people interact with their money, integrated financial planning, and important aspects of mortgages. We also review a past episode with guest Dan Solin and the book, The Five Most Important Questions, which provides readers with a tool for self-assessment and transformation concerning productivity in the workplace. Key Points From This Episode: • The role of debt in financial planning and the distinction between good and bad debt. (0:08:16) • A brief overview of mortgages, credit cards, and their associated risks. (0:11:31) • Consequences of borrowing money at a high-interest rate, and how financial literacy impacts effective debt management. (0:13:20) • The psychological aspects related to debt and consumer spending. (0:16:10) • Outlining the psychological interactions of established debt on mental well-being. (0:18:15) • Credit cards, what they offer, and their psychological effect on paying. (0:22:10) • Costs associated with not using a credit card. (0:28:45) • Why mortgage debt is considered good debt for the borrower and the different facets of mortgages to consider. (0:32:48) • The difference between fixed and adjustable mortgage rates and which is better. (0:37:25) • Highlights and key takeaways from a past episode with Dan Solin. (0:46:06) • A review of the book, The Five Most Important Questions and why we recommend it. (0:47:47) • How the questions from the book relate to household decision-making. (0:51:18) • A testament to Dan Wheeler and his contribution to the field of finance. (0:52:55) • Recent interviews with Ben, upcoming guests, other interesting financial content, and our book recommendations. (0:56:33) • A 23 in 23 book challenge update, feedback on the show, and upcoming meetups. (01:01:35) Participate i
S2 E242 · Thu, March 02, 2023
Erica Alini: Personal Finance Tactics for the Real World
The intersection between economics and psychology makes the subject of personal finance complex. To help us elucidate this topic is personal finance reporter at the Globe and Mail and the author of the bestselling book "Money Like You Mean It, Personal Finance Tactics for the Real World.", Erica Alini. Her journey into finance journalism began when she started working for the Wall Street Journal immediately after the financial crisis of 2007/08. Since then, Erica has become an accomplished writer and journalist, having worked for many respected organizations. She is also the author of a best-selling book, Money Like You Mean It , which provides readers with a nuanced understanding of the economic forces that shape financial struggles and how to overcome them. In this conversation, we talk to Erica about the importance of knowing yourself and your debt, the money bucket system, and the definition of financial abuse. We also discuss the various types of debt traps people should avoid, the dangers of micropayments, and what to be aware of when looking for a mortgage, as well as advice for finding a reliable mortgage broker, the avalanche versus the snowball model, and much more. Tune in to discover how to take back control of your finances and avoid the burden of debt with personal finance expert, Erica Alini. Key Points From This Episode: • Why Erica thinks Canadians have so much household debt. (0:02:24) • Strategies that people can implement to avoid the debt trap. (0:04:58) • Erica’s opinion on budgeting as a tool to manage spending. (0:08:34) • How the ‘bucketing model’ changes for a couple as opposed to an individual. (0:12:10) • How couples with different incomes should share expenses. (0:14:17) • Signs of an unhealthy financial relationship between partners. (0:17:06) • The amount of money an emergency fund should have. (0:21:17) • What consumers should know about the different debt products available. (0:24:08) • Discover the downside of taking a mortgage with the lowest interest rate. (0:33:55) • Whether or not an independent mortgage broker is better than a bank. (0:38:05) • Important insights about credit scores. (0:39:51) • Whether people should rent or buy property. (0:45:13) • How the traditional sense of a good job with sufficient income has changed. (0:50:34) • Erica’s approach to explaining the risk of investing in stocks. (0:56:46) • Insights about the math of a financial decision versus the psychology. (0:58:25) • How Erica defines success in her life. (1:00:29) <p clas
S2 E241 · Thu, February 23, 2023
Basic Personal Finance Concepts
Today we are spending most of the episode going further into the basic concepts that ground good financial practices and the personal finance topics that are often taken for granted. The three main areas we unpack in this episode are the cost of living, savings capacity, and emergency funds, and though these can be viewed as basic ideas, there are always areas of the simplest variety that deserve more attention. Listeners can also expect to hear a little more about what our role as financial advisors constitutes on a daily basis, as we respond to an audience member's question about how to conceptualize the profession. We welcome Dr. Wendall Mascarenhas back to the show for a brief cameo in which he shares his reading habits and approach with us, which contrasts with some of the opinions often expressed by other guests, so make sure to stay tuned in for that. We also find time for a quick recap of an old episode we had with Rick Ferri and a book review of Rethink Lead Generation by Tom Shapiro. Key Points From This Episode: • Discussing the cost of living and why an accurate picture of your expenses is so important. (0:04:08) • Working out your saving capacity and when and how to save. (0:21:32) • General advice for emergency funds and further considerations for households. (0:32:51) • Recapping our episode with Rick Ferri on his index investing philosophy and the lasting impact of John Bogle. (0:40:21) • This week's book review of Rethink Lead Generation by Tom Shapiro. (0:42:26) • Dr. Wendall Mascarenhas talks about his reading habits and his prioritization of reading for pleasure. (0:49:23) • A few favourite book recommendations from Dr. Wendall Mascarenhas. (0:58:12) • Current debates around ChatGPT and the sources of its information. (1:06:18) • Information about upcoming meetups for the Rational Reminder community. (1:09:38) • Further explorations on our recent goals survey and the input we received from Morningstar. (1:11:00) Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge: 23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23 23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/ Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalremin
S2 E2 · Thu, February 16, 2023
Prof. Eric J. Johnson: Choice Architecture and Financial Decisions
The decisions we make may be further out of our control than we’d like to imagine. Today we are joined by Professor Eric J. Johnson to discuss choice architecture and its role in financial decision-making. Eric is a decision science expert and the author of the book, The Elements of Choice: Why the Way We Decide Matters. In this episode, we learn about the various factors that impact not only decision-making but the effort required to make a decision. Eric shares his philosophy on free will and shares advice for making important decisions and guiding clients to find the right choice as a financial advisor. Tune in to discover how to minimize the influence of the choice architect and take charge of your decisions! Key Points From This Episode: • Introducing Professor Eric J. Johnson and this week’s topic: financial decision-making. (0:00:26) • The hidden partner that accompanies us when we make decisions. (0:03:42) • How design choices impact our decisions. (0:04:54) • The plausible path: what it is and how we choose it. (0:06:00) • Advice for making important decisions. (0:08:21) • The impact of recent events on decision-making. (0:10:33) • How to be your own choice architect. (0:12:15) • Factors impacting the effort required to make a decision. (0:13:22) • The impact of default choices and what influences them. (0:16:09) • How choice architecture can help people find the right choice. (0:20:17) • The influence of sorting on what people choose. (0:25:18) • How the order of options being presented and the way they’re described impact decisions. (0:26:54) • How exponential growth bias influences long-term decisions and how financial advisors can help clients understand the impact. (0:31:45) • The effectiveness of Netflix as a choice engine, the role choice engines play in educating users, and the value of just-in-time education. (0:35:04) • The impact of social media on people’s attention and intentions. (0:40:08) • Eric shares his philosophy on free will and the factors impacting our choices. (0:42:55) • How to minimize the influence of the choice architect. (0:44:16) • What financial advisors can do to be most useful to their clients. (0:46:00) • How Eric defines success in his life. (0:50:12) Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge: 23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23 23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/ Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: <a href= "https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-240-prof-eric-j-johnson-choice-architecture-and-financial-decisions-discussion-thr
S2 E239 · Thu, February 09, 2023
The Math of Financial Planning
The concept of financial math is another foundational element of investing and good economic decision-making, and today we are carrying on the recent string of shows dealing with these kinds of fundamental aspects. First, we have a look at the central idea of the time value of money, and how this plays into many areas of our finances, such as retirement planning, spending, investing, and so on. From there, the conversation goes on to cover exponential functions, the tradeoffs between saving and spending, and regrets. Today's 60-second episode recap is of the great conversation we had with David Blitzer back on Episode 54, and we also do a quick book review of the potentially life-changing How to Live on 24 Hours a Day. We finish off this punchy episode with some news from the community and some thoughts on the ways in which competition and repetition can improve a skill. Key Points From This Episode: • Introducing the time value of money, as well as the concepts of compounding and discounting. (0:03:07) • Applying financial math in different ways to varied questions. (0:11:34) • Lessons from Cameron's first business selling worms. (0:18:15) • The challenges and biases associated with exponential functions. (0:20:27) • Spending and saving; illuminating the reality of the tradeoffs. (0:27:26) <p class="MsoNormal" style= "ma
S2 E238 · Thu, February 02, 2023
Prof. Ralph Keeney: Decision Analysis and Value-focused Thinking
A large portion of what we talk about on this show boils down to decision-making, and today we have our focus squarely on the fundamentals of this process. Professor Ralph Keeney joins us to discuss some of the simplest and most profound elements of decisions, and why we so often miss these aspects. Ralph is a true expert on decision analysis, and his systematic process for decision-making, as laid out in his new book, Give Yourself a Nudge , has truly life-altering potential for anyone looking to improve their future. The book and this conversation are jam-packed with insightful and understandable ideas and examples, including clarifying objectives, the vital role of our values, generating alternatives, and a comparison between decision problems and decision opportunities. Ralph lays out a great way to get started on the path to better decisions, so make sure to join us to hear it all. Key Points From This Episode: The focus of Ralph's research and how he articulates the importance of our conscious decisions. (0:03:48) The shortcomings of the trial and error approach that many of us naturally employ. (0:10:46) First steps towards being a better decision-maker; using personal decisions for practice. (0:13:08) Ralph explains his conception and use of the idea of 'nudges'. (0:14:30) A better awareness of the often-neglected front end of decision-making. (0:17:38) An explanation of Ralph's value-focused decision-making process. (0:22:25) Mistakes made around retirement decisions. (0:30:30) Why clarifying your personal decision values can be so difficult. (0:32:15) The process of translating values into objectives. (0:36:11) Ralph's important question around the different possible situations in the future. (0:41:49) Simple processes and common pitfalls for generating alternatives. (0:43:19) Exploring decisions that require third-party permission or commitment. (0:47:59) Differentiating between decision problems and decision opportunities. (0:52:27) The most important concepts for embodying value-focussed decision-making. (0:57:44) The role of financial advisors in aiding their clients to make good decisions. (1:03:28) Application of these ideas toward living a good life. (1:07:46) Ralph's simple definition of success in his own life. (1:10:53) Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge: 23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23 23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/ Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: <a href= "https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-238-prof-ralph-keeney-decision-analysis-and-value-focused-thinking-discus
S2 E237 · Thu, January 26, 2023
Who are you, and who do you want to be?
Identifying your personal values is the foundation for making future decisions. In this episode, we discuss the profound ways in which personal values impact financial decision-making and share concrete steps to identify both your strategic and means objectives. Ben candidly shares his own objectives and expands on the other considerations involved in making major decisions. We then jump to the less abstract topic of 2022 returns, providing a thorough overview of the tilts and their consequences, followed by a brief summary of an early episode with Shane Parrish. In the latter half of this episode, we are joined by Zoobean co-founder and CEO Felix Lloyd to talk about Beanstack, the tech platform for reading, and Readwise co-founder Daniel Doyon. We also tackle the slightly left-field topic of marketing from a behavioural science standpoint through the lens of Nancy Harhut’s tellingly-titled book, Using Behavioral Science in Marketing . Tune in for upcoming developments in the Rational Reminder community, and to discover how to make financial decisions that align with who you are and who you want to become! Key Points From This Episode: How personal values impact financial decision-making. (0:00:25) How to identify your life’s values and objectives. (0:07:21) The significance of means objectives and strategic objectives, and how to identify them. (0:16:25) Ben’s strategic life objectives and means objectives. (0:18:27) Other considerations when making major decisions. (0:19:14) An overview of 2022 returns. (0:22:43) A summary of episode 19 with Shane Parrish. (0:28:59) A brief interview with Zoobean co-founder and CEO Felix Lloyd to talk about Beanstack, the tech platform for reading. (0:31:15) Cameron’s review of Using Behavioral Science in Marketing by Nancy Harhut. (0:43:09) What sells (from a behavioural science standpoint). (0:47:15) A brief interview with Readwise co-founder Daniel Doyon. (0:52:52) Summaries of recent Freakonomics , 10% Happier, and Capital Allocators (1:04:05) Developments in the Rational Reminder community. (1:05:30) Upcoming podcast guests and recent podcast reviews. (1:10:25) Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge: 23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23 23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/ Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-237-who-are-you-and-who-do-you-want-to-be-discussion-thread/21665 Book From Today’s Epis
S2 E236 · Thu, January 19, 2023
Harold Geller: "I Sue Financial Advisors"
Our guest today, Harold Gellar, is a lawyer who helps clients dealing with fraud and negligence perpetrated by financial advisors, and is a passionate advocate for investors and their rights. Tuning in you’ll hear details of some of the most common issues Harold has come across in his work, along with his practical advice for financial advisors and investors. We discuss the importance of clear communication between advisors and their clients, the concept of KYC (Know Your Client), and simple steps investors can take to ensure that their advice is properly understood by their clients. Harold goes on to provide an outline of factors that could make individuals vulnerable to negligent financial advice (such as marital problems or a sudden health crisis) and how to gain perspective in extreme situations. We also discuss the key differences between salespeople and financial advisors, the type of credentials investors should be looking for, and how regulation needs to be modernized in Canada for investors to be properly protected. Harold has been in this industry for a long time and is immensely knowledgeable on the subject of fraud and negligent investment advice. Key Points From This Episode: An overview of Harold’s practice and how he helps clients get their money back. (0:03:22) The difference between salespeople and financial advisors and the vulnerability of investors. (0:05:40) Practical advice for investors to ensure their financial advisor is doing due diligence and the concept of KYP (Know Your Product). (0:10:46) The concept of KYC (Know Your Client) and how to be sure your financial advisor understands you as a client. (0:15:32) The type of individuals who are particularly vulnerable to negligent financial advice, and why we can all be vulnerable in certain situations. (0:18:33) The role of the trusted contact person in Canada specifically, and how to know when to take the advice of your financial advisor. (0:25:13) Harold’s thoughts on what is causing Canada’s slow adoption of low-cost index funds. (0:32:27) How financial advisors earn money and why we need an updated regulatory system. (0:34:21) Harold’s approach to crypto and why he classifies it as a speculative asset. (0:41:50) Examples of negligence when the investment made was too conservative and why clear communication between client and advisor is crucial. (0:44:20) The worst insurance products that Harold has come across. (0:46:10) What financial advisors should be doing to make sure that their advice is properly understood by their clients. (0:49:23) What investors can do to make sure that they understand what the advisor is saying to them. (0:51:16) Ontario’s recent implementation of title regulation for financial planners and advisors and some of its key flaws. (0:52:16) The credentials that investors should expe
S2 E235 · Thu, January 12, 2023
Top Learnings from 2022 (plus 23 in 23 Special Guest Shaun Tomson) (EP.235)
As we kick off the new year, we wanted to look back at our biggest areas of learning from last year. So this episode serves as a great companion piece to our year-end recap from a couple of weeks ago, but the focus here is on the personal impact that specific guests, ideas, and topics had on each of our lives. We cover ICAPM thinking, the nature of money, financial literacy, setting financial goals, the history of index funds, and more. For the second half of the show, we are joined by the amazing Shaun Tomson, former world surfing champion, author, and renowned speaker. Shaun is here to talk a bit about his latest book, co-authored with Noah benShea, entitled The Surfer and the Sage. We get to hear about Shaun's belief in the power of words, the specific conditions that can enforce this power, the lessons he has taken from a life in the ocean, and how the tragedy of losing his son influenced his life's trajectory. Join us to catch it all. Key Points From This Episode: Differentiating between the CAPM and ICAPM theories. (0:08:02) Long-run risks in stocks and bonds; demystifying safety claims. (0:14:46) Further illumination on the concept of money and how to think about it. (0:24:27) Learnings around the empirical side of financial literacy. (0:31:00) Improved setting of financial goals and common mistakes that many of us make. (0:32:24) Filling in the gaps in an understanding of the history of index funds. (0:35:57) A one-minute recap of our episode with Allison Schrager from last year. (0:37:47) A quick review of Shaun Tomson's book, The Surfer and the Sage . (0:39:38) Shaun explains the significance of the wave as a metaphor. (0:43:28) The tragic passing of Shaun's son in 2006 and how this redirected his life's purpose. (0:45:10) Shaun explains his CODE method for transformation. (0:49:35) The significance of the structure of the book and the motivation behind it. (0:56:38) Unpacking the importance of purpose when making financial decisions. (0:59:40) Shaun's tactical recommendations; resilience, hope, optimism, and discipline. (1:05:44) Upcoming book recommendations for our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge. (1:19:22) Participate in our 23 in 23 Readin
S2 E234 · Thu, January 05, 2023
Prof. Robert C. Merton: ICAPM, Retirement, and Models in Finance
Few people have impacted the way the world works, and today, we have the privilege of speaking to one of them. Professor Robert C. Merton is the Distinguished Professor of Finance at The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management and Professor Emeritus at Harvard University. He has a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT and is currently the Resident Scientist at Dimensional Fund Advisors. Professor Merton was awarded the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1997 for his work establishing a new method to determine the value of derivatives. He also created the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), a popular tool to help advisors make informed financial decisions and understand market trends. In our incredible conversation, we cover portfolio theory, moving from Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), and how financial models work. We also discuss the difference between the value of your capital and the value of the cash flow that can come from that capital, why size can't be a factor, what aspects to consider when calculating the worth of an account, and the definition of market efficiency. We also delve into retirement, how to safely invest for it, what pitfalls to avoid, and how retirement funds may change over time. He also shares his opinion about some popular financial advise and what the roles of financial advisors should be. For all this and more, tune in to hear from the man behind the model and Nobel laureate, Professor Robert C. Merton! Key Points From This Episode: We start with Professor Merton describing the concept of market efficiency. (0:04:28) He explains the basics of his ICAPM asset pricing model. (0:09:10) How portfolio theory changes when moving from single-period to multi-period. (0:10:46) Hear a practical example of expected returns changing over time. (0:14:15) Why ICAPM is dependent on the sensitivities to risk of an individual investor. (0:22:52) Find out how to determine if the correct proxy has been identified for a risk. (0:25:34) Learn how home country bias fits into portfolio choice from an ICAPM hedging perspective. (0:31:54) The definition of a risk-free asset and how it changes with time. (0:33:24) What influence the time horizon should have on the mix between stocks and bonds in an investor’s portfolio. (0:35:33) His opinion about young investors using leverage to make investments. (0:41:50) What people should be doing to get more accessibility to leverage. (0:47:39) Professor Merton tells us who should focus on value stocks and growth stocks. (0:51:34) Discover what makes retirement income a difficult problem to solve and tips to ensure your retirement. (0:56:47) We discuss using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate how much people can spend in retirement. (1:0
S2 E233 · Thu, December 29, 2022
2022: A Year in Review
It has been an amazing year for the podcast. We have had some incredible guests during 2022 who have provided us and listeners with insights and thought-provoking ideas about the world of finance. We covered a lot of ground and to wrap up the year we decided to recap some of our favourite moments for listeners. In this episode, we highlight the many themes covered during this year, such as the basics of investing, stocks and bonds, how to make wise investment decisions, gender inequality, asset management, index funds, market trends, and portfolio management. We also highlight some of the indirectly topics indirectly related to finance such as the value of happiness, enjoying the pursuit of happiness, the importance of goal setting, and much more. Join us as we reflect on some of our best moments from the year and provide an overview of the many vital lessons we have learned in this final episode of the year for the Rational Reminder podcast. Key Points From This Episode: Mac McQuown explains how the data revolution changed the game of investing. (0:09:05) Robin Wigglesworth and tracking the performance of portfolios in the 60s. (0:12:56) Professor Fama shares what it is like to see the impact of his academic work on the practice of asset management. (0:16:02) Gus Sauter tells us about the role the University of Chicago played in the index fund revolution. (0:18:41) Professor Fama unpacks what it means for a market to be efficient. (0:20:52) Gerard O’Reilly and the differences in the types of market strategies available. (0:24:27) Professor Betermier shares his research from multiple papers concerning tendencies towards growth and value stocks. (0:28:50) Eduardo Repetto tells us whether having a portfolio consisting of 100% small-cap value stocks makes sense. (0:36:06) Professor Koijen explains whether index funds distort market prices and make markets less efficient. (0:40:30) Professors Berk and van Binsbergen discuss if it is possible to find skilled fund managers before they are absorbed by their fund. (0:43:44) Professor Cederburg explains how data sets can be upwardly biased and why you need to be aware of it when looking at data. (0:48:15) Bill Janeway describes the three-player game regarding investments. (0:50:51) Professor Phalippou compares the performance of private equity relative to public equities. (0:53:42) Antti Ilmanen tells us how investors can stick with an investment strategy during times of low performance. (0:59:10) Professor List tells us how often people should check their investment portfolios. (1:01:56) Leonard Mlodinow explains how the rational mind and the emotional mind are intertwined. (1:04:56) Professor Edmans’s Grow the Pie and making the world a better place. (1:07:27) Rebecca Walker outlines the effect learning
S2 E232 · Thu, December 22, 2022
Dr. Annamaria Lusardi: The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy
Gaining financial literacy is critical if you want to thrive in today’s society. And yet, only about a third of the global population can be described as being financially literate. Joining us today to unpack the concept of financial literacy and its impact is Dr. Annamaria Lusardi, Professor of Economics and Accountancy at George Washington University. Dr. Lusardi has taught Economics for over 20 years, and her passion for financial literacy is reflected in everything she does. Her career has been instrumental in furthering the cause of increased global financial literacy, from being the Founder and Academic Director of the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center, to serving as the co-chair of the G53 Financial Literacy and Personal Finance Research Network. In our conversation, Dr. Lusardi breaks down the definition of financial literacy, how it’s measured by leading experts across the world, along with some of the key differences we see between people in richer and poorer countries. She explains why financial advice isn’t a replacement for financial literacy and provides guidance on what we should be doing to educate various population groups. We also discuss how global trends have created an increased need for financial literacy as an essential skill, especially for young people, and why greater global financial literacy is beneficial to everyone, including governments and wealthier individuals. Tune in as we delve into the many facets of financial literacy and the important role it plays in our collective health, happiness, and success! Key Points From This Episode: Lusardi defines the concept of financial literacy and the importance of being able to apply it as a skill. (0:04:30) How experts measure financial literacy and some of the key challenges involved. (0:07:55) The global survey that was conducted on financial literacy in 2014 and its dismal findings. (0:11:44) The areas of financial literacy that people struggle with most and why the need for financial literacy has increased over time. (0:15:26) The costs and benefits of gaining financial literacy and the concept of optimal financial knowledge. (0:22:42) An overview of the type of person who should be investing in financial literacy and why. (0:27:46) How the strength of your government’s social safety net affects financial literacy rates. (0:30:15) The extent to which financial literacy affects stock market participation and wealth accumulation. (0:31:18) Some of the common mistakes that those with low levels of financial literacy tend to make. (0:35:10) Why financial literacy’s end goal should be geared towards happiness and living a good life. (0:39:24) The impact that financial advice and financial advisors have on economic outcomes. (0:43:18) How financial literacy varies across demographic groups and some of the factors that account fo
S2 E231 · Thu, December 15, 2022
RR 231: Investing Basics and Common Questions (plus Reading Habits w/ Amer Kaissi)
Today is our final episode featuring just the two of us before our annual wrap-up show, and we thought we would use this opportunity to cover some important foundational aspects of rational investing. Ben goes over some of the most fundamental concepts about market prices, risk, and actual returns before answering five common questions that relate to this level of information. From investing in an employer's stock to predicting the future and real estate comparisons, these five touch-points are always worth returning to, and should even interest the more experienced of our listeners. For the second half of the show, we offer a quick book review of The Culture Playbook by Daniel Coyle, and have a brief and illuminating conversation with Professor Amer Kaissi about his book, Humbitious, and some of his thoughts on the part that reading plays in rich and progressive life. Press play to catch all this and more on the Rational Reminder Podcast. Key Points From This Episode: Picking up a thread from our discussion on the 2% Rule. (0:06:05) Getting to grips with investing basics. (0:10:45) How market prices work in response to traders' actions and risk. (0:17:59) The main determinants of actual returns and starting points for your portfolio. (0:23:15) Unknowable futures and the eternal doom and gloom predictions. (0:35:43) Assessing the value of owning an employer's stock. (0:38:21) Holding stock picks in Tax-Free Savings Accounts. (0:42:07) How to prepare a portfolio when a recession is predicted. (0:43:49) Comparing investments in real estate with the stock market. (0:45:14) Weighing the value of building and emergency fund. (0:47:11) A thirty-second recap of our episode with Cliff Asness. (0:50:06) Today's book review focussing on the lesson from The Culture Playbook by Daniel Coyle. (0:51:48) Professor Kaissi shares a quick summary of his book, Humbitious . (0:58:40) The potential to develop characteristics and the role that reading plays. (0:59:38) Professor Kaissi talks about his reading habits. (1:02:12) Application of ideas from books and how Professor Kaissi captures and organizes information in his own reading. (1:05:15) A few of Professor Kaissi's favourite book recommendations and how to increase your reading habit. (1:08:52) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-231-investing-basics-and-common-questions-plus-reading-habits-w-amer-kaissi-discussion-thread/20716 Books From Today’s Episode: Humbitious: The Power of Low-Ego, High-Drive Lea
S2 E230 · Thu, December 08, 2022
Prof. Robert Frank: Success, Luck, and Luxury
The world is a highly competitive place, and becoming successful requires hard work, dedication, and luck. This is the view of today’s guest, Professor Robert Frank, who helps us unravel the nuance of conspicuous consumption trends and the role of luck in gaining financial success. Professor Frank is the emeritus Henrietta Johnson Louis Professor of Management at Cornell University and holds an MA in statistics and a Ph.D. in Economics from UC Berkeley. He is also a prolific author, having written 12 books, financial textbooks, and many peer-reviewed articles in journals such as the American Economic Review, Econometrica, and Journal of Political Economy. He is passionate about how policy can help drive positive consumer behaviour, reduce inequality, and increase individual happiness. His work has also focused on the role of luck in achieving financial success which he covers in his book Success and Luck. In this episode, we unpack how individuals can improve societal collective action, the role of policy in driving those changes, and how luck interplays with success. We discuss economic and financial relativism, the dangers of conspicuous consumption, how expenditure cascades occur, and what influences consumption trends in society. We also dive into the topic of luck, whether wealthy people are happier, what behavioural changes are needed to create a better society, and more. Key Points From This Episode: Professor Frank describes the difference between departures from rational choice with regret and without regret. (0:04:34) Whether he classifies his work as behavioural economics. (0:07:38) An explanation of economic and financial relativism. (0:10:50) The role of economic and financial relativism in consumption trends. (0:12:44) Find out what constitutes a positional good. (0:16:56) How the consumption of positional goods affects psychological well-being. (0:19:32) Why people choose to engage in consumption arms races. (0:21:52) The relationship between the consumption of luxury goods and happiness. (0:24:45) What people can do to recognize and avoid negative consumption behaviours. (0:26:31) How the spending of the super-rich impacts the spending habits of the typical consumer. (0:27:38) Ways in which social media influencers have affected consumption. (0:30:32) We learn about the link between consumption and inequality. (0:32:40) How well differences in human capital explain differences in income. (0:35:04) Professor Frank explains how likely it is that the most skilled person gets the best outcome in a competitive market. (0:38:13) Professor Frank shares how they measure luck. (0:41:20) The influence luck has on achieving a successful outcome. (0:42:09) Find out if luck influences consumption trends and inequality. (0:44:03) A thought exper
S2 E229 · Thu, December 01, 2022
The 2% (!?) Rule for Retirement Spending
Traditionally, people saving for retirement and financial advisors relied on the 4% rule when calculating how much to save for retirement and the associated income those savings would provide after retirement. What if you found out it does not work? Is there another option? Today, we offer you an alternative approach, which is the 2% rule for retirement spending. Before we delve into today’s main topic, we update listeners on the recent London meet-up, what to expect on upcoming shows, and who our special guest is to kick off the first episode of 2023. Then, we discuss today’s main topic and learn what the 2% rule is, how it compares to the 4% rule, and whether the safe percentage for retirement is actually higher. We unpack retirement spending through the lens of several empirical papers, historical data, and market comparisons. We also find out why the US market has always been able to bounce back from uncertainty and whether there is empirical data to support the 4% rule. We also talk about the many financial challenges and opportunities that young people face, the biggest mistake people make regarding retirement, the value of financial literacy, book reviews, and more! Key Points From This Episode: An update on the 22 in 22 Reading Challenge. (0:05:21) Outline of today’s content and the main topic: the 2% rule for retirement spending. (0:06:27) An overview of the “2% rule”, the motivation behind it, and how it was formulated. (0:08:17) We discuss if the safe withdrawal rate for retirement savings is higher than 4%. (0:13:31) The inspiration for the higher average realized rate of return on investment theory. (0:19:59) Whether the past returns on US stocks will repeat in the future. (0:21:54) Why the US stock market has been historically exceptional and resilient, and how other markets compare. (0:23:44) The biggest limitation of the seminal work which helped established the 4% rule. (0:28:38) How data gaps were dealt with in the paper by Scott Rieckens and results are discussed. (0:33:16) Other aspects to consider regarding the research on retirement funds. (0:38:35) The challenges and opportunities that young people face today. (0:42:24) How financial literacy impacts investment opportunities, returns, and overall happiness. (0:46:59) What are the potential solutions and reasons to be optimistic regarding the current financial market. (0:47:48) Our usual episode review under a minute: episode 30 with Larry Swedroe. (0:52:31) This week’s book review and choice architecture. (0:54:35) We discuss the reviews and feedback received on a previous episode. (1:02:32) Hear an update about our idea regarding CE credits and reviews about the show. (1:06:01) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: <a href= "https://commu
S2 E228 · Thu, November 24, 2022
Eduardo Repetto: Deep Dive with Avantis Investors' CIO
In this episode, we are joined by the CIO of Avantis Investors, Eduardo Repetto, to have an in-depth conversation about his philosophy and approach to many of the central concepts that are important to our listeners. Eduardo weighs in on asset pricing factor investing, premiums, and also shares some of his perspectives on what makes Avantis different from its competitors. Eduardo's wealth of experience and technical know-how make this very practical exploration, complete with some inventive and demonstrative analogies. Despite the high-level concepts discussed, our guest's ability to communicate these in an accessible manner also helped maintain a level of approachability throughout. Toward the end of the episode, we get to hear a little about Eduardo's Ph.D. in aeronautics and some of the surprising overlaps he sees between his two fields of interest. Key Points From This Episode: Eduardo's approach to communicating what Avantis can offer their clients. (0:02:57) Advantages of the ETF structure for managing portfolios. (0:05:07) Advice for investors for quantitatively assessing the expected return advantage of a factor-tilted portfolio. (0:10:26) Practical approaches for individual investors when assessing a factor tilt in portfolios. (0:13:54) Eduardo unpacks the idea of trust in relation to the premium. (0:20:45) When does a completely small-cap value portfolio make sense? (0:27:23) Avantis' method for targeting value and profitability. (0:31:03) The weighting of different metrics that Avantis uses when building portfolios. (0:34:43) Eduardo unpacks cash profitability versus operating profitability. (0:36:53) The approach at Avantis to sector weights. (0:39:56) Understanding adjusted book value when pricing a company. (0:43:53) Eduardo describes the premium for the Goodwill adjustment. (0:50:02) How Avantis views pursuing credit premium in fixed income investments. (0:51:32) Determining the size of factors tilts on particular products. (0:57:05) Reasons that there are no emerging market small cap value strategies. (0:59:48) Comparing the research behind inflation-focused equity strategy to a more general value profitability premium. (1:06:03) Avantis' strategy for staying on the cutting edge of the latest research. (1:10:34) Conversations between Avantis and American Century Investments about different investment philosophies. (1:18:22) Eduardo shares his opinion about Avantis' competitive advantage. (1:19:56) Where Avantis and Eduardo are aiming their energy in the near future, and the succession plan for the company. (1:23:11) Some surprising similarities between aeronautics and asset management. (1:27:21) Eduardo talks about his personal definition of success. (1:31:31) Links From Today’s Episode:
S2 E227 · Thu, November 17, 2022
Who Should Invest in (Cap Weighted) Index Funds?
In today’s episode, we pull relevant quotes from past guests (namely John Cochrane, Gene Fama, and Jonathan Berk) to extricate who should own market cap funds. We look at the variable risks of value stocks and factor investing and hear counter-views on owning the market. We also delve into the hot topic of tax loss selling, with an overview of a recent Financial Analyst Journal paper on loss harvesting outcomes, sorted by investor profiles. This episode will get you up to date on the biggest finance news of the week, from crypto collapses to Amazon’s catapulting gains and losses. Tune in to hear all of this and more, including a recap of our conversation with Dave Goetsch and our Financial Literacy Month book reviews. Key Points From This Episode: A neat way to keep track of the value of your purchases over time. (0:00:33) The results of the Rational Reminder financial literacy survey. (0:02:44) An overview of this episode’s topics. (0:05:45) Who should invest in market cap-weighted index funds. (0:07:28) How to determine whether you’re different from the average investor. (0:16:13) Gene Fama’s take on the possibility of identifying state factors. (0:22:13) The variable risks of value stocks. (0:23:25) What drives people to increase their value tilts over time. (0:25:11) The risks of factor investing, and trading in general. (0:28:26) Jonathan Berk’s take on owning the market. (0:31:53) A summary of who should invest in total market index funds. (0:33:20) The big crypto news of the week! (0:38:21) Other significant market news. (0:42:17) An overview of a recent Financial Analyst Journal paper on loss harvesting outcomes, sorted by investor profiles. (0:44:59) Our book reviews for Financial Literacy Month. (0:55:15) A recap of our conversation with Dave Goetsch. (1:01:47) A few of our listeners’ reviews. (1:02:50) Participate in our RR CE Credits Survey: https://forms.office.com/Pages/ResponsePage.aspx?id=xVA-B3TS3UeuUte5Yx-hRi0Vpj3fzvhNpOTm6eRMYJ5UN0tOM1A5MFdPQzJFT1hZOTJLN1pHRVFYSS4u Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-227-who-should-invest-in-cap-weighted-index-funds-discussion-thread/20230 Books From Today’s Episode: The Geometry of Wealth: How to shape a life of money and meaning — https://amzn.to/3Od9J3N Retirement Income for Life: Getting More without Saving More
S2 E226 · Thu, November 10, 2022
Colonel Chris Hadfield: An Astronaut's Guide to Life on Earth
In this episode, we speak to renowned Canadian figure Colonel Chris Hadfield. For those who don't know, Chris is a heavily decorated astronaut, engineer, and pilot, and has received many awards, such as the Order of Canada, the Meritorious Service Cross and the NASA Exceptional Service Medal. Colonel Hadfield became a worldwide sensation with his video of David Bowie's "Space Oddity" which was viewed by over 75 million people. He aims to make space more accessible and continues to share the wonders of outer space and science with as many people as possible. Besides his phenomenal professional background, he is also known for his music which he writes and plays on earth and in space! He is also the author of several books, namely An Astronaut's Guide to Life on Earth , You Are Here , and a children's book, The Darkest Dark . Although Colonel Hadfield has a very different background from previous guests, his 35-year career has afforded him many lessons that apply to life, which he shares in our conversation with him. We learn the importance of goals and why reaching your goals should not define your happiness. Hear ways to overcome fear when facing uncertainty, the value of competence, and why enjoying the road to success is more important than success itself. Find out why sweating the small is essential to success, whether Colonel Hadfield suffers from imposter syndrome, and where true happiness comes from. Tune in and discover the secret to success and happiness in this one-of-a-kind conversation with special guest, Colonel Chris Hadfield! Key Points From This Episode: What motivated Commander Hadfield to take pictures onboard the International Space Station. (0:04:10) He briefly explains the amount of effort that went into taking pictures for his book You Are Here . (0:05:14) What lessons Commander Hadfield learned as an astronaut that he applies to life. (0:06:34) How to keep motivated to achieve your goals with the knowledge that you probably won’t achieve them. (0:08:41) Why his goal was becoming an astronaut and not to be an astronaut. (0:11:05) Whether there is a time to reconsider or quit a goal that you have set for yourself. (0:12:46) The best way to prepare for situations with uncertain outcomes. (0:14:51) How to prepare for situations that you cannot prepare or practice for. (0:18:18) Ways to mitigate fear when dealing with risk and uncertainty. (0:20:55) Learn if building competence is different for different people. (0:23:48) Hear the benefits of negative thinking and sweating the small stuff. (0:25:33) Commander Hadfield explains how to prepare for novel situations. (0:29:07) He shares where he thinks life satisfaction comes from. (0:31:49) Find out if Commander Hadfield ever suffers from imposter syndrome. (0:34:14) What life lessons he
S2 E225 · Thu, November 03, 2022
The Index Fund "Tipping Point" (EP.225)
Are index funds a menace to the market? Are pension funds still a wise way to secure your financial future? In this episode, we discuss index funds, the state-sponsored pension plan in Canada, and much more. First, we unpack the nuances of index funds and take a look at the impact that active and passive investors have on the market. We discuss current index fund trends, when to switch from a passive to an active investor, and the dreaded index fund tipping point. To help us understand pension funds, we also chat with Jordan Tarasoff, a financial planner at PWL Capital, about the recent controversy regarding state pension schemes in Canada, and he provides us with some valuable insights into the government’s upcoming plan. We switch up our usual book review to celebrate Financial Literacy Month and share five recommended books that will help you improve your understanding of finance. We also try something new by giving listeners a condensed overview of a previous episode with one of our favourite guests, Scott Rieckens. Finally, we go through some of the feedback and comments we’ve received from the growing Rational Reminder community about the show and our recent financial goals survey. Key Points From This Episode: What to look forward to in next week’s episode. (0:05:08) Hear about a special promotion to celebrate Financial Literacy Month. (0:05:43) Introducing today’s topic and what to expect in the episode. (0:05:56) Worries and biggest critiques of index funds. (0:08:23) Current trends regarding index funds in relation to the market. (0:09:40) When investors should switch from passive to active. (0:12:45) Some good news about the index fund tipping point. (0:15:46) What investors should be aware of when actively investing. (0:16:32) How informed and misinformed managers contribute to the index fund tipping point. (0:19:38) Who the investors and managers are that change to passive investment. (0:20:52) How switching from active to passive investing affects the value of the market. (0:25:38) Unpacking the concept of markets being ‘inelastic’ as a result of index funds. (0:28:52) Whether passive investing undermines price efficiency concerning index funds. (0:30:03) What would cause the index tipping point to occur. (0:31:40) A brief background on today’s guest, Jordan Tarasoff. (0:35:00) Details about the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and how it works. (0:35:28) Jordan outlines the benefits of deferring a pension plan claim. (0:36:28) Recent changes that make deferring your pension plan non-beneficial. (0:38:20) What age group the recent pension plan changes impact the most. (0:42:14) Why the Consumer Price Index (CPI) can’t be used to predict wage growth. (0:43:53) How Jordan is approaching his clients’ pensions regarding the ne
S2 E224 · Thu, October 27, 2022
Prof Scott Cederburg: Long-Horizon Losses in Stocks, Bonds, and Bills
Are stocks and bonds good in the long game? What are the best long-term investment options? In this episode, we speak to Professor Scott Cederburg about the nuance surrounding the stock market, bonds, and other investment types in the long term. He has a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Iowa and is currently the Associate Professor of Finance at Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona. His research focuses on the long-horizon performance of a range of asset classes and investment types and has published in high-ranking academic journals, making him the perfect person to speak to about the subject. We discuss the topic through the lens of several papers he has written on stocks, bonds, retirement savings, and return predictability. In our conversation, we unravel the nuance of the returns on long-term stocks and bonds, hear details about his research design, and learn how unanticipated events can affect the market. He also provides insight into the different biases surrounding long-term investments, the block bootstrap approach, reasons why the block bootstrap approach is needed, and why bonds and bills may not be the long-term investment you were hoping for. We also discuss the best options for investors regarding pre-tax and post-tax accounts and the differences between high-beta and low-beta portfolios. He also shares some basic steps for investors to help them protect their investments. Join us as we dig into the past to uncover the financial future with Professor Scott Cederburg. Key Points From This Episode: We begin with Professor Cederburg describing his research design for his work investigating long-term returns on stocks and bonds. (0:04:20) Hear examples of how unanticipated events lead to impacts on stocks and bonds. (0:08:08) What the overall trend in the data was from his research on stocks and bonds. (0:11:05) Why considering different biases is essential for financial decision-making. (0:11:45) How the historical experience in the US stock and bond markets compare to other developed markets. (0:12:45) Details about the data he collected regarding domestic stocks and investors. (0:13:55) Learn how probable it is that domestic stocks will deliver losses in the long term. (0:16:41) Outline of the factors which tend to cause long-term stock losses. (0:17:36) What potential losses are in the long-term for international stocks. (0:18:58) How likely stocks will deliver catastrophic losses as opposed to traditional forms of loss. (0:22:15) Find out how much the probability of loss decreases with longer horizons. (0:23:59) The contribution of currency and domestic inflation to the trends in the data. (0:24:52) We compare how well international stocks hedge against long-term real losses in domestic stocks. (0:25:25) He shares how he thinks investors should appro
S2 E223 · Thu, October 20, 2022
A Financial Goals Master List (n=310)
We recently created and conducted a very interesting survey based on financial goals, and today, we get to share some of the data we collected and the answers that were given to the questions. Although there are some definite limitations to our expertise as surveyors and data collectors, the findings are most definitely illuminating, surprising, and useful. Listeners will get to hear a bit about the process of building the survey as well as some of the raw numbers and data before we get into the list of goals that were submitted, collated, and ranked. We also share some of the ways that these were split across demographics such as age and gender. Apart from this focus on the survey, we share some thoughts on Eat the Rich, Coin, and The Next Millionaire Next Door, and finish off the show with some very impactful letters from listeners that we have received recently. Key Points From This Episode: Thoughts on the new Netflix show, Eat the Rich, and the story of GameStop. (0:01:58) What to expect on the podcast in November during Canadian Financial Literacy Month. (0:05:17) Reflections on the new film, Coin, and the founding of Coinbase. (0:08:08) Introducing the results from our recent survey on goals. (0:11:23) The process of building the survey and the questions we included. (0:18:22) A look over the basic data of the survey. (0:22:27) Popular objectives from the survey and how these were split across different demographics. (0:23:17) The answers that were given in relation to each specific question. (0:28:02) Developing best practices for goal setting for an advisor environment. (0:30:17) Limitations to our expertise in designing this survey and analyzing the data. (0:32:43) Running through the complete list of goals in order. (0:34:29) Introducing this week's book discussion on The Next Millionaire Next Door . (0:39:46) Standout findings from the research that was conducted for the book. (0:44:00) Utilization of an 'expected net worth test' in the book. (0:49:50) A look at some of the listener messages we have received lately. (0:52:29) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-223-a-financial-goals-master-list-n-310-discussion-thread/19742 Books From Today’s Episode: The Next Millionaire Next Door — https://www.amazon.com/Next-Millionaire-Door-Enduring-Strategies/dp/1493035355 <p class="" data-rte-preserve-
S2 E222 · Thu, October 13, 2022
Cassie Holmes: Being Happier
There is more and more research on the determinants and results of happiness in human life, and on the show today we get to do an amazing deep dive on this subject with social psychologist, and author of Happier Hour, Cassie Holmes. Cassie is currently running a course at UCLA Anderson School of Management called 'Applying the Science of Happiness to Life Design', and her book draws directly from the content of this course. In our chat, Cassie shares some definitive data on what actually influences our happiness in significant ways, how to invest and allocate your available time, approaches to offsetting hedonic adaptation, and the vital importance of relationships and exercise. Our guest also talks about popular misconceptions and cultural perceptions about success, and why assessing your values and purpose can make achieving more happiness much more realistic. It is here that we find Cassie's main thesis; that through reflection and tracking we can determine more accurately how to use our time in the different parts of our lives and increase our day-to-day happiness, so make sure to join us for this episode of the Rational Reminder. Key Points From This Episode: The science behind the important benefits of happiness. (0:02:17) Current research into the measurement of happiness. (0:04:27) Cassie talks about the roots of the course she teaches on happiness. (0:07:02) Misconceptions about what makes us happy and the lasting power of notions of success. (0:10:25) The cultural roots of our perceptions of happiness. (0:14:58) Determinants of happiness; Cassie shares the biggest factors in our emotional landscape. (0:20:16) Working towards a goal, time tracking, and entering flow states. (0:25:28) Happiness as a decision and as a disposition; how much control do we have? (0:30:26) How comparison undermines and robs us of happiness. (0:37:01) Cassie unpacks how to understand the role of relationships in our lives. (0:38:30) A story from Cassie illustrating the links between discretionary time and happiness. (0:43:35) Amounts of discretionary time to allocate to yourself each day. (0:49:39) The worst ways to use time and the activities that enhance feelings of loneliness. (0:52:02) Cassie's advice on how to avoid time poverty and what to refuse. (0:55:53) The dangers of an over-emphasis on productivity and urgency. (0:58:21) Aligning your values and purpose in the professional sphere of your life. (1:01:38) How the remote landscape and work-from-home model has impacted h
S2 E221 · Thu, October 06, 2022
Permanent Life Insurance
Of course, you want to protect your family and your savings from unforeseen consequences, but is life insurance the best option? Can life insurance be an investment rather than a cost? In today's episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we take a look at everything life insurance and dig into some hard-hitting research on the subject. We break down the various insurance products available and unravel the nuances regarding returns, dividends, and the associated fees. We discuss why there is so much confusion regarding returns and associated risk, how your contribution can affect your returns, and why you may not get the payout you expected. We also delve into what makes each insurance product different from the next, whether predictions on insurance policy returns are possible, and how insurance compares to other asset classes. If you’re looking for insight into the potential tax benefits of life insurance and a breakdown of the different scenarios where life insurance is needed, this is the episode for you! Key Points From This Episode: The main topic of the episode: permanent life insurance. (0:04:29) Defining insurance and how it is typically structured. (0:04:44) ‘Term life insurance’ and how it works. (0:05:41) A brief outline of the differences between term insurance and permanent insurance. (0:07:37) Details about term life insurance and the benefits to the policyholder. (0:09:37) Another type of life insurance: universal life insurance. (0:11:05) How investments within a life insurance policy are designed. (0:13:20) An interesting insight Ben came across while researching insurance. (0:14:38) Non-participating whole life insurance and the associated cash value. (0:16:00) A breakdown of participating life insurance and what makes it different. (0:18:42) The basis for performance and premiums on participating insurance. (0:21:43) Whether or not it’s possible to predict returns from insurance products. (0:25:25) Reasons for the obscurity surrounding insurance products and expected returns. (0:25:49) The policy illustration software that many insurance companies use. (0:29:35) Insight into post-tax returns of permanent insurance on death. (0:35:23) An overview of when you would need life insurance. (0:40:58) The long-term expected death benefits compared to other assets. (0:43:03) Insight into the commission incentive associated with insurance policies. (0:45:47) Highlights of a recent presentation that Ben gave at an IAFP con
S2 E220 · Thu, September 29, 2022
Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen: The Arithmetic of Active Management, Revisited
Do you feel like you have a good grasp of financial markets? Think again! In this episode, we take a plunge into the world of financial markets with experts Jules van Binsbergen and Jonathan Berk. Jules is a Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Jonathan is a Professor of Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business. They also host a popular podcast called Else Equal, which explores the science and strategy of making better financial decisions, and have written several academic papers that challenge the status quo. In our conversation, we discuss their research on the relationship between manager skill and fund performance, the best ways to measure performance, and reasons why benefits are in favour of the managers. We also explore the dogma surrounding mutual funds, the differences between active and passive management, and how to measure efficient capital markets. Listeners will also hear perspectives that challenge their understanding of capital markets and viewpoints that completely disagree with previous guests. Although we have covered this topic before in previous episodes, this conversation will fundamentally change the way you view financial markets and how to think about them. Key Points From This Episode: What information fund performance contains about manager skill. (0:04:04) Reasons why manager skill and performance are unrelated. (0:04:59) We learn how manager skills should be measured. (0:06:57) How to choose the appropriate benchmark to measure value added. (0:09:26) Find out if you can use factor-mimicking portfolios to measure risk-adjusted returns. (0:12:05) Whether funds that directly target risk factors can be used as an investable benchmark. (0:16:35) What the skill of active managers are when skill is measured as value-added. (0:20:52) The proportion of value-added between security selection and market timing. (0:23:20) Discussion about how persistence manifests when it is measured by value-added. (0:25:43) Find out if investors should analyze mutual fund companies as opposed to managers. (0:32:36) Discover why research has focused on individual security pricing and not on evaluating manager skill. (0:34:25) We unpack the reasons why it's a zero net alpha as opposed to a negative net alpha in equilibrium. (0:38:19) We delve into why the research took so long to apply rational expectations to fund investors as with the stock market. (0:42:46) An explanation of how equilibrium zero net alpha fits into Bill Sharpe's arithmetic of active management. (0:48:16) Who benefits from the high amount of skill available within the sector. (0:51:11) Whether the increase in millionaires around the world drives inequality. (0:56:12) Hear if it is possible to identify skilled fund managers before the ben
Fri, September 23, 2022
Understanding Crypto 17: Ari Juels: The Technical Case for Blockchain
Critics of blockchain often say that it is nothing more than a database, but today’s guest, Ari Juels, has a different opinion. His technical expertise (he is a Professor of Computer Science at Cornell Tech), combined with his ability to understand both sides of a divisive topic like this one, make for a very insightful conversation about Bitcoin, NFTs, and smart contracts. We talk about the reasons for the valid skepticism that surrounds blockchain technology, the various reasons that Ari believes that it is a powerful, useful tool, despite its downfalls, pyramid schemes, decentralized exchanges and more! Key Points From This Episode: The significance of the Bitcoin innovation to Ari’s field of study. (0:03:40) What piqued Ari’s initial interest in digital currency. (0:04:46) Ari explains the difference between permission and permissionless blockchains. (0:06:27) Comparing a permission blockchain with a distributed-append-only database with authorized contributors. (0:08:34) A number of reasons why permissionless blockchains have been so widely embraced (despite Ari’s initial prediction to the contrary). (0:12:24) Fraud in the cryptocurrency space; Ari shares his thoughts. (0:14:28) The benefits of the cultural phenomenon of NFTs. (0:19:25) Examples of NFT-related issues that still need to be addressed. (0:26:04) How smart contracts can be used by criminals to their advantage. (0:30:09) Why smart contracts are well suited for compliance. (0:32:02) An example of a smart contract pyramid scheme. (0:35:48) Some of the pros and cons of the inflexibility of smart contracts. (0:41:09) What flash loans are and what they can be used for. (0:46:11) Understanding the value of oracle systems. (0:50:04) How the Candid system that Ari’s group developed helps to mitigate the problem of lost Bitcoin keys. (0:57:04) Ari explains the advantages and disadvantages of a decentralized exchange. (01:01:19) How the blockchain has improved code writing. (01:07:57) The importance of balancing privacy and accountability in DeFi systems. (01:09:38) Ari’s thoughts about the future potential of blockchain technology. (01:14:03) The biggest concerns that Ari has about the blockchain space. (01:15:24) Why skepticism about blockchain technology is valid. (01:17:31) The facet of the blockchain space that Ari is most excited about. (01:19:51) Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ <p class="
S2 E219 · Thu, September 22, 2022
Expected Returns for Alternative Asset Classes (plus Reading Habits w/ David Senra).
The type of assets which usually come to mind when considering investments are stocks, bonds, or cash, but what are the alternatives? And what kind of returns do alternative asset classes offer? In today’s episode, we delve into the returns which can be expected from alternative asset classes such as private equity, venture capital, angel investing, private credit, hedge funds, direct real estate, and cryptocurrencies. Hear an in-depth analysis based on empirical studies and the expertise of your hosts, Ben and Cameron, to discover whether there is any merit to alternative asset classes as investments. We unpack the extra layer of complexity associated with predicting returns on alternative assets, how to approach calculating returns, and why the associated fees are an essential consideration. We also hear details about an interesting conference Cameron recently attended and briefly recap cryptocurrencies as an investment. You’ll also hear our conversation with our 22 in 22 reading challenge guest David Senra about his reading habits, the books that most inspire him, and his advice for people who want to read more. Key Points From This Episode: Outline of today’s main topic: expected returns for alternative asset classes. (0:01:51) Why predicting returns of alternative asset classes has an extra layer of complexity. (0:03:18) How to approach estimating the returns of private equity, specifically buyouts. (0:05:04) We unpack historical data regarding the returns of private equity. (0:07:35) Calculating the returns on venture capital and reasons to be cautious about it as an asset class. (0:16:35) The distribution of returns from venture capital based on the market numbers. (0:20:09) Learn what angel investing is and its associated returns. (0:20:54) What returns on angel investing are most dependent on and why. (0:22:21) The different types and the associated returns. (0:25:23) Hear about the fees associated with private credit. (0:27:42) We unravel the concept of hedge funds, the associated fees, and expected returns. (0:29:29) A limiting factor on hedge funds: capacity constraints. (0:33:38) The takeaway regarding private real estate investments. (0:36:25) How private real estate is valued as an asset class. (0:37:48) Cryptocurrencies and the returns to be expected. (0:39:34) We discuss some of the key takeaways from today’s main topic. (0:43:30) We follow up on a previous topic we covered: financial literacy. (0:45:10) Find out about an interesting conference that Cameron recently attended. (0:48:46) Hear about the recent reviews we have received about the podcast. (0:57:58) We introduce our 22 and 22 reading challenge guest, David Senra. (01:00:15) Where David’s passion for reading about founders originates from. (01:02:25)</l
Fri, September 16, 2022
Understanding Crypto 16: Chris DeRose: Uncensored Crypto Perspectives
In this episode, we speak to Chris DeRose, software developer and former co-host of the Bitcoin Uncensored podcast, about both the downsides and upsides of cryptocurrencies and the associated technologies. We took the time to dive deep into the subject with Chris and learned about some of the common misconceptions about blockchain technology, the value of cryptocurrencies to society, ways in which the crypto space has evolved, using economic theories to understand financial systems, the definition of money, what he thinks about the associated technologies, the role blockchain technology can have in society and why cryptocurrencies will not replace the dollar. Key Points From This Episode: The motivation behind Chris’s decision to get involved with Bitcoin in 2010. (0:00:48) How the Bitcoin community has evolved since Chris got involved in 2010. (0:03:00) Some of the common misconceptions associated with blockchain technology. (0:06:03) Whether new technologies pushing back against regulations is common. (0:08:08) Ways in which Chris’s perception of crypto has changed since he discovered it. (0:09:53) Chris explains what his definition of money is. (0:11:19) Find out what Bitcoin actually is, if it is not money. (0:14:39) Aspects of the current financial system that Bitcoin improves on. (0:16:42) A discussion around the recent controversy regarding Canadian trucker convoys. (0:17:54) Some of the problems anonymity associated with cryptocurrencies causes. (0:20:33) Why not being able to verify transactions is a problem for privacy coins. (0:21:18) A discussion about the US monetary system and the US dollar. (0:24:12) Chris discusses the reliance on economic theories to understand the economy. (0:30:59) What he thinks about crypto markets through the lens of market efficiency. (0:32:26) Whether crypto markets can be manipulated or not. (0:33:49) Why Chris thinks Bitcoin will not make traditional regulations around payments obsolete. (0:35:32) Another discussion regarding the economy through a theoretical lens. (0:39:15) Reasons why Chris thinks cryptocurrencies have value. (0:40:32) Chris explains what fungible value is. (0:45:49) Why Bitcoin is regarded as digital gold. (0:49:25) How possible it is for Bitcoin to replace the dollar. (0:50:46) Chris tells us if he thinks Bitcoin and Ethereum are (0:53:39) Why Chris thinks there is a mythical aspect to the economy. (1:00:49) We find out if Chris thinks blockchains are immutable. (1:02:29) Immutability: find out if this is a good aspect of cryptocurrencies. (1:03:37) An explanation of consensus and if proof of work alternatives offer solutions. (1:04:33) Reasons why he thinks Vitalik Buterin is a charlatan. (1:09:22) Chris
S2 E218 · Thu, September 15, 2022
Colleen Ammerman: Gender and Human Capital
The gender pay gap is still a persistent problem in today's society, reflecting the overall state of gender inequality. It is full of complexity and comprises different facets, making it hard to understand the overall situation. We have covered the topic before, but in this episode, we go into a whole new level of detail. To help us unpack the nuance of this essential topic is Colleen Ammerman, Director of the Gender Initiative at Harvard Business School. She is also the author of Glass Half-Broken, providing readers with hard evidence and detailed analysis of the different drivers of gender inequality in the workplace. We cover the basics of gender inequality, such as how it currently exists, how it manifests in the workplace, and the subtle and less obvious ways it occurs. We also find out whether men are generally aware of the problem, the obstacles that prevent men from taking action, and the power men have to initiate positive change within organizations. Colleen also untangles the intricacies of the topic, explaining why gender equality is still a pervasive problem, how gender inequality extends to promotions, how management explains away the issue, how gender equality is also beneficial for men, and the influence of perceived gender roles in career decisions. Tune in and learn about the intricacies of gender inequality, as well as the possible solutions, with Colleen Ammerman! Key Points From This Episode: We start by finding out what the current situation is for women in the workplace. (0:03:22) How to quantify gender inequality symptoms in the workplace. (0:04:12) Whether there are similar effects of gender inequality for men of colour. (0:05:03) Why people might still deny that there is a problem concerning gender inequality. (0:05:35) An outline of the career obstacles that uniquely affect women. (0:07:18) Find out if men are aware that women have additional barriers to overcome. (0:12:03) Reasons why women may leave the workplace before retaining a leadership role. (0:14:05) Colleen explains how we know from the data that women have less interest in higher-paying technical jobs. (0:16:14) Learn if the adjusted gender pay gap data diminish the findings of using unadjusted gender pay gap data. (0:18:47) Ways in which the gender pay gap extends to promotions and compensation. (0:20:34) Colleen tells us why it is important for society to strive for more women in leadership positions. (0:21:26) The general response from men to workplace diversity initiatives. (0:22:07) What men should be doing in the workplace to help reduce inequalities that exist. (0:26:25) The ways corporate directors explain the underrepresentation of women and people of colour on boards. (0:29:15) Why we don't see more men taking action to combat gender inequality issues. (0:31:05) She
Fri, September 09, 2022
Understanding Crypto 15: Prof. Vili Lehdonvirta: Cryptocracy: The Obfuscation of Power
Today, we speak to Vili Lehdonvirta, Professor of Economics, Sociology, and Digital Social Research at the Oxford Internet Institute at the University of Oxford. Professor Lehdonvirta is a social scientist whose research focuses on ways digital technologies are reshaping the organization of economies, including their associated social effects. He is also the author of two books, Cloud Empires and Virtual Economies, which provide readers with an in-depth look into the power that crypto platforms hold and a well-rounded characterization of digital markets. In this episode, we talk about the ideological underpinnings of crypto and the role of governance in making cryptocurrencies possible. We discuss the role of states in scaling markets, how states and platform companies differ, the impacts of smart contracts on governance issues, and how control and power are centralized within crypto markets, as well as the social implications of blockchain technology. Listeners will also learn about past controversies within the crypto space, why people are still needed within crypto, and the blockchain paradox, plus more! Key Points From This Episode: We start by learning about John Perry Barlow’s vision for cyberspace. [0:05:06] Find out about the role that states play in markets. [0:07:03] How markets function at scale if the state is not involved. [0:07:55] Professor Lehdonvirta’s view on whether governance may precede markets. [0:08:59] The role massive platform companies play in today’s economy. [0:09:44] Ways in which states and platform companies differ. [0:10:42] Why he thinks public blockchain technology has garnered so much attention. [0:11:27] An explanation of the influence John Perry Barlow’s vision had on cryptocurrencies. [0:13:04] Learn what a Kleroterion is and the role it played in Athenian democracy. [0:14:01] Professor Lehdonvirta shares what it means to ‘trust in the code.’ [0:17:05] An outline of the new properties smart contracts created. [0:18:59] Social and economic implications of unstoppable censorship-resistant contracts. [0:21:08] A brief rundown of how impactful smart contracts have been. [0:22:27] How the trustless and unstoppable claims of cryptocurrencies and DAOs were affected by the DAO story. [0:24:20] Whether the Bitcoin block-size conflict affected the perception of crypto as a trustless system. [0:28:17] We find out the current size of the Bitcoin development team. [0:31:05] Other examples of human discretion affecting the direction of Bitc
S2 E217 · Thu, September 08, 2022
The Expected Returns of Financial Literacy
What impact does financial literacy have on decision-making and financial outcomes? How is financial literacy tested? In this episode, we help listeners understand why financial literacy is vital in terms of financial well-being. Learn the definition of financial literacy, how financial literacy relates to economic outcomes, the differences between people who are financially literate and those that are not, and the contribution of financial knowledge to human capital. We discuss the topic through the perspective of several papers that will challenge how you think about financial literacy and the questions to ask yourself to test your financial understanding. Then, we talk about this week's book review regarding the effects of technology on communication and the various distractions associated with a traditional work environment. We also go through the various reviews received about the show and what we have planned for the Rational Reminder community. Key Points From This Episode: Breakdown of changes made to the format of current and future episodes. [0:01:49] Introduction to today’s topic: expected returns of financial literacy. [0:07:34] Learn the definition of financial literacy. [0:09:36] The predictive power of financial literacy concerning financial outcomes. [0:10:27] What financially literate people are better at and how it increases human capital. [0:11:34] The cost of financial ignorance to the individual. [0:13:06] Overview of an interesting paper concerning active investing. [0:14:43] A dangerous observation within the financial literacy research [0:16:34] Find out how financial literacy is measured. [0:20:10] Whether it is safer to put your money into one business or to invest. [0:21:23] An important aspect of financial literacy is discussed: inflation. [0:22:34] Why numeracy is also a fundamental aspect of financial literacy. [0:24:25] We go through the topic of compound interest in relation to financial literacy. [0:24:57] Hear what the global distribution of financial literacy is. [0:27:04] How to approach the financial literacy problem from a policy perspective. [0:27:59] We review the book, Reclaiming Conversation, and discuss communication problems technology causes. [0:35:08] Examples of the different distractions associated with office spaces. [0:41:55] Reasons why meetings should be thought out with clear objectives. [0:44:45] Ways in which your phone can distract you from deep work. [0:46:3
Fri, September 02, 2022
Understanding Crypto 14: Prof. John Cochrane: Money, (Fiscal) Inflation, and Political Freedom
Welcome to our limited edition crypto series. In this episode, we welcome back Professor John Cochrane, who was a guest on the Rational Reminder series, to talk everything money. Professor Cochrane has immense experience on the topic and is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford, as well as Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and was a professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He is also the author of several books and writes a popular blog called The Grumpy Economist. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the concept of money. We learn what numeraire is, how a numeraire is defined, and explore some of the intricacies of money. We also discuss and unpack the differences between fiscal theory and monetary theory, along with other ideas regarding the value of money. We then delve into how all this relates to cryptocurrencies, what future he sees for crypto, and much more. Tuning into this episode, listeners will challenge their thinking about the economy and how economic relations work. Key Points From This Episode: Professor John Cochrane explains to us the short version of fiscal theory. [0:04:35] Find out the definition of numeraire and how it is determined within an economy. [0:05:21] Learn whether government backing is required to define a numeraire. [0:07:05] What Professor John Cochrane thinks is the primary function of money. [0:08:55] Whether money needs to be a medium of exchange that stores value. [0:09:45] He explains why money is valuable according to fiscal theory. [0:11:22] The role of taxes in adding to the value of money according to fiscal theory. [0:12:59] How fiscal theory’s explanation for why money is valuable differs from the monetarist explanation. [0:13:33] Find out whether the term ‘fiat’ is still a good adjective to describe money in a fiscal world. [0:17:24] We learn if ‘fiat’ is an appropriate term to describe money according to the monetarist view. [0:19:10] What the government debt valuation equations suggest about the stability of the price level. [0:20:21] An outline of what happens when discount rates become volatile. [0:23:29] Ways in which sticky prices affect the stability of the price level. [0:27:24] Whether the supply of money is still a useful perspective today. [0:31:01] Why monetarism theory has gained so much traction. [0:33:51] He unpacks the purpose of monetarism theory. [0:35:21] How fiscal and monetary actions set expected and unexpected inflation regarding fiscal theory. [0:37:10] The level of fiscal and monetary coordination required for price stability. [0:39:58] Whether the level of coordination needed is re
S2 E216 · Thu, September 01, 2022
Gus Sauter: Vanguard's Former CIO on Indexing, Active Management, and Private Equity
The indexing revolution is something that underpins all of our work here at the Rational Reminder and is a subject we reference in different ways in almost all of our episodes. Today we have a special exploration of this history, as we welcome Gus Sauter, the former long-time CIO of Vanguard, to talk about his incredible history at the firm, the role he played in the rise of the company, and its huge role in reforming the investing landscape. We also hear from our guest about his experience of working on numerous investing committees since he retired about a decade ago. One of the most notable things about this conversation is Gus' ability to weigh both sides of the arguments about active management, and he does a great job of balancing what he sees as the potential positives of this way of doing things. This is all strengthen by the way he presents these ideas as a powerful mix of stories, evidence, and the research he himself has conducted. To all our listeners, be sure to listen right to the end of the episode, as after the official conversation ends, Gus shared a few more thoughts on Jack Bogle and ETFs as a bonus. Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:49) Looking back at the part that indexing played at Vanguard when Gus started at the company. (0:04:20) The rise of indexing in the subsequent years and the pivotal moments in this process. (0:06:28) Initial ways that indexing was denigrated by Vanguard's competition. (0:08:36) How the narrative changed around indexing when its utility became undeniable. (0:09:10) The role of the University of Chicago in the growth of indexing early on. (0:11:11) Changes in the active management space over the last few decades. (0:12:04) Considering the role of an active manager in today's climate. (0:14:43) Gus' opinion on balancing the strengths of indexing and active management. (0:20:48) Differences between traditional active management and factor investing, and Gus' preferences. (0:29:09) A look at Vanguard's recent forays into factor-based funds. (0:31:00) Recounting Jack Bogle's thoughts on active management at different points. (0:32:27) Evaluating active managers; weighing the processes and their maintenance. (0:35:09) Vanguard's relative low fees and how this impacted their success. (0:36:35) How Vanguard went about selecting investment managers. (0:38:44) Gus talks about the structure of Vanguard; what it meant to be a truly mutual company. (0:41:19) Thoughts on home country bias and global diversification in light of countries like Canada. (0:45:07) Approaches to private equity; Gus' recommendations for the average investor. (0:48:30) Access to private markets and the prohibitive effect of high fees. (0:51:25) Accounting for the recent large flows towards private equity and the current institutional philosophy around it. (0:54:
Fri, August 26, 2022
Understanding Crypto 13: Prof. William Magnuson: Blockchain and Democracy
Welcome to another episode from our limited edition crypto series. The previous guests we have spoken to about crypto generally have experience in economics, finance, or technology. In this episode, we have a look at crypto through a legal lens with Professor William Magnuson, an Associate Professor of Law at Texas A&M University School of Law. He is also the author of Blockchain Democracy, which provides readers with a guide into the world of blockchain and Bitcoin, and highlights the reasons for their growing popularity. In our conversation, we delve into everything law and order within the crypto world as Professor Magnuson explains the causes of crime, the jurisdiction of crypto, the impact of decentralized cryptocurrency on the legal system, and how to overcome the legal challenges surrounding crypto. We also talk about the underlying ideology of crypto, the origins of cypherpunks, the people who are being negatively affected by, mechanisms to enforce regulations, and much more. Tune in to learn more about crypto and blockchain through the lens of the law with Professor Magnuson! Key Points From This Episode: A brief overview of the political philosophies of Thomas Hobbes and John Locke. [0:02:48] Find out which of the two political philosophies is closer to reality. [0:04:55] What it means for political or economic systems to be decentralized. [0:05:26] An overview of the advantages and disadvantages of a decentralized system. [0:07:36] Causes of a decentralized system to become centralized. [0:09:54] Where power in an initially decentralized system tends to centralize. [0:11:38] The systems that democracies use to maintain a desired level of decentralization. [0:12:33] How close the underlying political philosophy of Bitcoin falls to the philosophies of Locke and Hobbes. [0:13:34] We learn about the origins of cypherpunks and the associated ideology. [0:14:55] Whether the current state of our world resembles the dystopian future that the cypherpunks imagined. [0:16:41] Why digital cash was so important to cypherpunks and why early attempts failed. [0:17:36] The relationship between anonymity and crime is explained. [0:20:16] What role crime has played in the development and proliferation of cryptocurrencies. [0:22:48] Why comparing cryptocurrency to cash as a similar mechanism for crime is incorrect. [0:25:53] Professor Magnuson explains how social norms affect criminal behaviour. [0:27:48] He outlines the norms seen empirically within the blockchain communities. [0:30:12] Challenges in applying existing laws and regulations to cryptocurrencies. [0:33:04] Where cryptocurrencies fall under current regulatory and legal interpretations. [0:37:44] Whether cryptocurrencies are a regulation problem or a law problem. [0:39:43] How to enforce regulations and laws for cryptocurrencies. [0:40:44] He tells us if public blockchains jeopardize the existing legal system and democracy. [0:43:17] The costs of lightly regulated or unregulated markets in te
S2 E215 · Thu, August 25, 2022
Asynchronous Work & Effective Equity Duration (plus Reading Habits w/ Harley Finkelstein)
We start the show with a brief highlight of recent episodes, upcoming guests, and feedback we have received about the show. We then review the book Running Remote, which provides evidence for the benefits of working remotely and asynchronous management. We also outline the three essential principles of an asynchronous mindset. We discuss the positives and benefits of remote work, why hybrid work is a flawed approach, and how to recreate face-to-face meetings in a remote world. We also give listeners a breakdown of an interesting journal article about inferring stock duration and equity trades, including key takeaways from the papers. We then welcome our special guest, Harley Finkelstein, to talk about the role that reading plays in his life. Harley is a lawyer, entrepreneur, and the President of Shopify and uses what he reads to push him further in his professional life. In our conversation, we learn the role reading has played in Shopify’s culture, what his favourite books are, and inner details about his reading habit. Tune in for another jam-packed episode! Key Points From This Episode: We start the show with a recap of previous episodes and upcoming guests. [0:00:00] A brief highlight of some of the reviews we have received about the show. [0:03:41] An update on the Rational Reminder 22 and 22 reading challenge. [0:06:35] This week’s review of the book, Running Remote . [0:09:24] The three fundamental principles of the asynchronous mindset. [0:16:58] Hear what the seven deadly sins are regarding remote team transitions. [0:24:35] Cameron shares a compelling paragraph from the book, Running Remote. [0:28:04] Learn a mind-blowing statistic Cameron read in a Bloomberg article. [0:32:31] Ben breaks down a journal article about inferring stock duration. [0:33:47] Another interesting paper regarding the retail price of equity trades. [0:44:10] Introduction to our guest Harley Finkelstein to talk about our 22 and 22 challenge. [0:47:20] Harley shares details about his reading habit. [0:47:50] How he incorporates what he has learned from reading into his professional life. [0:49:57] Ways in which Harley finds interesting books to read. [0:51:58] The role reading has played in Shopify’s culture and work ethic. [0:53:57] What books have had the biggest impact on him. [0:58:12] Find out whether his daughters have embraced his love for books. [1:02:29] Advice that Harley has for people who want to read more. [1:04:32] </li
Fri, August 19, 2022
Understanding Crypto 12: David Gerard: Crypto Realities
What is the real value of cryptocurrencies? Can crypto technology be applied to traditional financial markets? In this episode, we welcome David Gerard, a technologist and author of the books Libra Shrugged and Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain. He uses his skills as a journalist to investigate the uses and hype around cryptocurrencies and is an outspoken skeptic of the technology. Although not originally from the technology sector, he has become an authority on the topic and has briefed the UK House of Commons Science and Technology Committee on the technology. He also runs a blog covering important aspects of the cryptocurrency space. In today’s conversation, we learn some harsh realities about the benefits of cryptocurrencies and why they will not last in the long term. We learn what the real value of crypto-markets is, why he considers it to be a Ponzi scheme, what needs to change about cryptocurrencies, whether there are any benefits to the technology and the role of financial journalism in the crypto space. Listen as we unravel the political ideology which underpins crypto and whether it can be separated from the technology. We also discuss the outcome of El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment and why it did not work. We also learn the reasons behind the recent crash in some crypto markets and find out which book David thinks everyone should read. Key Points From This Episode: We start the show by finding out the real dollar value of crypto markets. [0:03:45] The role financial journalism played in getting crypto to where it is today. [0:06:02] Reasons why he does not trust the value of cryptocurrencies. [0:11:04] Why he thinks cryptocurrency journalism is not credible. [0:12:00] He explains Bitcoin’s underlying political ideology and the associated problems. [0:13:25] The classic debate of who should have control over financial markets. [0:16:41] Whether it is possible to remove the political ideology from crypto-technology. [0:17:34] What the most important aspect of cryptocurrency technology is. [0:18:24] The reasoning behind the argument, ‘You just don’t understand the technology.’ [0:21:52] How to make cryptocurrency work in traditional financial markets. [0:23:50] Why the recent crash in the cryptocurrency markets occurred. [0:28:03] Find out if cryptocurrencies can be beneficial for the ‘bankless’. [0:30:25] We discuss the outcome of El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment. [0:32:20] He outlines why Salvadorans did not like the proposed bitcoin market. [0:38:11] Learn what the UK House of Commons Science and Techno
S2 E214 · Thu, August 18, 2022
Jay Van Bavel: Shared Identities and Decision Making
Identity helps shape our perception and thinking about the world around us. What is identity? How does it influence our perspective? These are some of the questions we answer in this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. In this episode, we talk with Jay Van Bavel, an Associate Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience at the University of New York, an affiliate at the Stern School of Business in Management and Organizations, and Director of the Social Identity and Morality Lab. He is also co-author of the book The Power of Us, which provides readers with cutting-edge research in psychology and neuroscience to explain how identity really works and how we can harness it for the better. His research focuses on how group identities, moral values, and political beliefs shape the mind, brain, and behaviour. He has published over 100 academic publications on the topic and has won various awards for his research achievements. In our conversation, we unpack the complexity of identity and its influence on our perspective and decision-making abilities. We cover aspects such as the differences between self-identity and group identity, how to be aware of your biases, the role that leaders play in influencing identity, and how identity plays out in social relationships. We also talk about how group identity interacts with democracy and the role of social media in shaping our identity, as well as learn some practical advice to help broaden your perspective. Key Points From This Episode: We start the show by learning the basics of group identity. [0:03:29] How group identity differs from self-identity. [0:04:04] He explains how impactful group identity is to individual identity. [0:05:06] Whether there is good data on how many groups people typically identify with. [0:06:08] How aware people are of the groups they identify with. [0:07:27] Ways in which group identity affects decision-making. [0:08:12] The effect group identity has on setting and achieving goals. [0:09:35] General ways group identity affects social relationships. [0:15:21] A deeper explanation about groups, memberships, and physical presence. [0:17:28] Differences between introverts and extroverts. [0:19:18] How group identity affects our thinking and perspective. [0:20:43] Associate Professor Van Bavel explains how to foster social cohesion, using America as an example. [0:25:41] Find out if people have a default identity that determines their perspective. [0:28:41] What people can do to be aware of which identity is affecting their thinking. [0:30:10] Find out if grou
Fri, August 12, 2022
Understanding Crypto 11: Quinn DuPont: Understanding Crypto: An Interdisciplinary Approach
In this episode, we speak to Quinn DuPont, a self-described technology historian and researcher of everything crypto. He is fascinated by what humans do and how technology affects what humans do. Quinn focuses his research on the history, meaning, use, and socio-technical development of cryptography. He has published many academic papers on the subject, including the book Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains, and is currently an adjunct professor at the UBC School of Information. He approaches investigating the world of crypto as a scientist making him neither a skeptic nor a proponent of the technology, offering listeners an objective perspective. In this episode, we unpack the basics of crypto and take a deep dive into the theoretical and technological concepts. We learn about the ideological foundations of crypto, how crypto technology will impact governance, what the definition of money is, the potential of the technology to society, and the social components associated with cryptocurrencies. We also find out the real value of crypto and learn about the ethical challenges Quinn faces as a researcher in the space. Key Points From This Episode: [0:05:16] The ideological worldview that resulted in cryptocurrencies. [0:10:51] Quinn explains his standard criticism of the critics. [0:13:43] Why the ideological origins of crypto are irrelevant today. [0:15:50] The nuance surrounding the immutability of crypto technology is discussed. [0:17:04] What the benefits of the cryptosystem are for governance. [0:19:48] How well he thinks crypto fits within a democratic society. [0:25:41] Reasons why political ideology needs to be taken into account. [0:28:19] Quinn tells us his definition of money. [0:31:18] What impact decentralized censorship-resistant monies have on society. [0:38:52] How valuable a cryptocurrency in the real world is. [0:40:48] Why paying your taxes gives money value. [0:44:25] Whether Quinn considers Bitcoin to be money. [0:46:09] He walks us through the benefits of DeFi to societies. [0:49:30] We learn what the downsides of DeFi to societies are. [0:50:22] Learn if blockchain solves any of the problems that exist in traditional finance. [0:57:57] The advantages of bitcoin-based technology for business logistics. [01:03:00] Why some blockchain business technology is marketing hype. [01:04:32] How a DAO is different from a traditional corporation. [01:10:24] Find out what would happ
S2 E213 · Thu, August 11, 2022
Expected Returns and Factor Investing
In today’s episode, we beg the question: is factor investing worth it? Factor-tilted portfolios tend to perform independently of the market and today, we break down a few of the characteristics associated with higher expected returns, as well as the challenges of factor investing. We give a brief history of pricing models and walk step-by-step through a hypothetical factor investment; taking the Fama and French five-factor model into account. Additionally, we discuss liability duration and bond returns and speculate whether pooling finances results in greater relationship satisfaction. Tune in to hear our take on everything from book clubs and the impact of inflation on consumption liability assumptions to our final verdict on whether factor investing is, in fact, worth your while. Key Points From This Episode: The latest phenomenon of people paying to go on popular podcasts. [0:01:58] Interesting feedback we’ve received for our Crypto series. [0:03:49] Why not to make an investment decision based on one person's opinion. [0:04:53] The evaluation skills our Crypto series equips listeners with. [0:06:05] Upcoming guests on the Rational Reminder Podcast! [0:07:31] Some interesting LinkedIn connections we’ve made in the past few weeks. [0:16:06] Recommended book for kids: Way of the Warrior Kid 3 . [0:18:11] Recommended book for adults: The Psychology of Money . [0:21:08] The model of our firm’s book club and our experience of it so far. [0:22:02] Does pooling finances result in greater relationship satisfaction? [0:24:35] Liability duration and bond returns according to the current change in bond yields. [0:26:22] How inflation impacts consumption liability assumptions. [0:29:11] The positive effect the changes in the bond market have had on pension funds, relative to their liabilities. [0:30:20] The main topic of the day: is factor investing worth it? [0:32:30] The long-term volatility for factor-tilted portfolios. [0:33:56] What factor investing is and the added risk it entails. [0:34:51] A brief history of pricing models. [0:35:53] A few characteristics associated with higher expected returns. [0:39:25] The challenges of factor investing. [0:39:47] How to determine the mix of factors that captures all relevant state variable sensitivities. [0:42:56] The significance of size premium. [0:46:07] Speculating whether factors
Fri, August 05, 2022
Understanding Crypto 10: Prof. Hilary Allen: DeFi: Shadow Banking 2.0?
There is a lot of hype surrounding cryptocurrencies and DeFi technology, with excitement around the potential innovations they offer financial systems. Often lacking in the discussion is an objective and critically informed viewpoint, leading to confusion and misunderstanding. In today’s conversation, we get the balanced perspective that we need with Professor Hilary Allen, who has a wealth of experience in banking, law, financial regulation, corporate finance, and business administration. She is a law professor at the American University of Washington College of Law and her research focuses on the impact of new financial technologies on the stability of the current finance system. She has written many academic papers on the subject, including the book Driverless Finance, which provides readers with a balanced perspective on the opportunities and threats of fintech innovations. In our candid and fascinating conversation with Professor Allen, we learn about the threats and opportunities DeFi technologies pose to the financial system. We hear what shadow banking is, the similarities that decentralized finance has with shadow banking, the risks of cryptocurrencies, if innovation in finance is always positive, why regulation is essential, whether DeFi is actually decentralized, the basics of stablecoins, how you can help affect change in the financial system, if you should invest in cryptocurrencies, and much more. Tune in to get the clarity you need about the world of crypto with expert Professor Hilary Allen! Key Points From This Episode: We start the show by learning what shadow banking is and how it is associated with the financial crisis in 2008. [0:04:05] Professor Allen explains what DeFi is and gives us some examples. [0:07:16] Learn about some of the innovations that DeFi technology proposes. [0:09:21] Similarities between shadow banking activities and DeFi technology. [0:11:06] Other risks that Professor Allen sees with the DeFi system. [0:12:12] What effect replacing intermediaries with algorithms have on financial systems. [0:16:03] The effect complexity has on a financial system. [0:17:19] She explains what financial stability is and the objective of financial regulation. [0:19:27] How the financial stability of the existing system compares to the DeFi system. [0:21:01] Whether stability of the existing financial system is exposed to problems within DeFi. [0:22:14] Which DeFi innovations pose the biggest risk to the current financial system. [0:23:23] Find out if stablecoins could affect monetary policy. [0:25:23] The regulatory lessons from the 2008 financial crisi
S2 E212 · Thu, August 04, 2022
Prof. Ralph Koijen: Demand System Asset Pricing & Inelastic Markets
If you’re ready for a serious education on market elasticity, demand system pricing, and stock market flows, you’ve come to the right place (disclaimer: don’t expect light entertainment). Today’s guest is Ralph Koijen, AQR Capital Management Professor of Finance and Fama Faculty Fellow at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. Tune in for a fascinating conversation about some of the most fundamental characteristics of our economy. To say we learned a lot from this conversation is an understatement, and we’re sure you’ll walk away with just as many lightbulb moments and impactful lessons as we did. Key Points From This Episode: Ralph provides an in-depth explanation of demand system pricing. [0:02:48] An example of how valuations can be affected while the connection between fundamentals and valuations remain relatively unaffected. [0:08:18] How Ralph’s model for demand system asset pricing differs from other models. [0:41:26] The two components that investor demand is made up of. [0:14:54] Exploring the concept of latent demand and how to estimate it. [0:17:57] How the price impact from institutions and elasticity of markets has changed over time. [0:20:34] Understanding the surprising impact of households on stock market volatility in 2008. [0:20:34] How latent demand can be used to predict differences in expected returns. [0:25:46] Examples of factors that drive latent demand. [0:30:42] The most impactful group of investors (and why this is the case). [0:33:17] An overview of what would likely happen if the most influential investors switched to market cap indexing. [0:35:22] How huge firms influence the setting of prices. [0:36:25] Ralph shares his thoughts on the idea that index funds are distorting market prices as they continue to grow in magnitude. [0:35:22] What demand system pricing tells us about the effect of socially responsible investing on prices. [0:43:01] How US asset prices would be affected if foreign demand for US assets decreases. [0:35:22] Inelastic versus elastic markets. [0:47:23] Why prices are so much more volatile than fundamentals. [0:51:11] Comparing micro-elasticity and macro-elasticity. [0:52:18] Ways to estimate micro-elasticity and macro-elasticity, and the limitations of these approaches. [0:54:00] Ralph’s estimate of what the macro-elasticity is. [01:01:00] Risk factors that impact elasticity. [01:02:07] An
Fri, July 29, 2022
Understanding Crypto 9: Campbell R. Harvey: DeFi and the Future of Finance (Rebroadcast)
For this week’s episode, we are revisiting a portion of our conversation with the legendary Professor Campbell R. Harvey and and his more optimistic viewpoint on the crypto space. Campbell is the Professor of International Business at Duke University and is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. In 2016 he served as the President of the American Finance Association, and from 2006 to 2012 he occupied the incredibly demanding role of Editor for the Journal of Finance. We hear about Campbell’s latest book DeFi and the Future of Finance along with his most recent research. Discover how Campbell first became interested in the topic several years ago and decided to put together a course for his students. We also delve into the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and how we can expect it to shape global finance, trading, and the future of the internet.
S2 E211 · Thu, July 28, 2022
Stocks for the Long Run...? (plus Reading Habits w/ Mark Sutcliffe)
Welcome to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast! We start by reviewing The Fearless Organization, and learn some important concepts such as psychological safety in the workplace, allowing people to voice their concerns, and the value of continuously learning. We also discuss a paper on index investing followed by a quick discussion on gender equality in finance. We then take a deep dive into today’s main topic, ‘Stocks for the Long Run…?’, by unpacking research to see if stocks are still a valuable long-term investment. Finally, we end the show with a conversation about our 22 and 22 book challenge with Mark Sutcliffe, and find out about his reading habits and the books that have had the biggest impact on him. Key Points From This Episode: An update about the podcast and feedback received about the crypto series. [0:03:55] A rundown of the guests we have planned for future episodes. [0:07:43] Outline of the ‘mixed-bag’ reviews received about the show. [0:08:28] News and updates regarding the Rational Reminder reading challenge. [0:13:07] This week’s book review of The Fearless Organization by Amy C. Edmondson. [0:14:45] We talk about an interesting paper ‘On Index Investing’ [0:24:42] Follow-up on and discussion concerning gender equality in finance from previous episodes. [0:28:34] We dig into today’s main topic, ‘Stocks for the Long Run.’ [0:33:38] Issues surrounding using Stocks for the Long Run data to draw insights. [0:35:22] What has been achieved to solve issues regarding a lack of data on stock returns. [0:41:45] An important insight from research on the value of stocks and bonds in the long term. [0:47:17] A breakdown of some interesting findings from the paper, ‘Global factor premiums’ . [0:48:00] Overview of the research discussed and whether stocks are still valuable long-term investments. [0:53:54] The Rational Reminder 22 and 22 book challenge conversation with Mark Sutcliffe. [0:55:09] What Mark has discovered about the world of social media while working remotely. [0:56:58] Mark shares details about his reading habit and his favourite books growing up. [0:57:53] Whether he has a favourite genre of book. [01:00:11] How Mark sources books to read and how he captures interesting information. [01:00:44] The books that Mark commonly recommends to family and friends. [01:03:05] Find out if Mark thinks being an author changes how you read books. <st
Fri, July 22, 2022
Understanding Crypto 8: Tim O'Reilly: How does Web3 Compare to Web 2.0?
Welcome back to another comprehensive and informative episode in this limited series of the Rational Reminder Podcast, a weekly reality check about the world of cryptocurrencies. We are lucky to have another respected figure in the crypto world on our show, technology veteran Tim O’Reilly. Tim is a well-known educator and publisher in the crypto community and the Founder, CEO, and Chairman of O'Reilly Media. He has been involved in the technology industry since the inception and rise of Silicon Valley and, with over 35 years of industry experience, he is known for popularizing the terms ‘open-source software’ and ‘Web 2.0’ and is a respected commentator on the space. In today’s show, we do a lot of looking backwards with Tim and draw insight from his vast experience in the industry to discuss what the future of cryptocurrencies holds. We also talk about what separates companies that survive from those that do not, problems in society that blockchain technology can be used for, and changes that have taken place in the technology industry during Tim’s career, as well as what the definition of true innovation is, and much more. Key Points From This Episode: What Tim’s definition of a technology unicorn is. [0:03:07] The problems that Web3 could solve and what makes a product innovative. [0:04:39] Differences between companies that survived the .com bust and those that did not. [0:11:05] Whether Tim thinks there are promising projects in the crypto or Web3 space. [0:18:36] How society would change if Web3 became the new normal. [0:22:19] Examples of the applications blockchain technology could have for record-keeping. [0:24:36] Tim shares his thought son whether or not we need blockchain technology for aspects where the state is involved. [0:27:24] Ways in which the evolution of crypto has changed Tim’s mental map of the future. [0:31:37] The role public blockchains could play in breaking the recentralization trend in decentralized technologies. [0:35:02] Tim tells us if he thinks centralization is a bad thing. [0:37:15] Past mistakes and innovation within the tech industry. [0:41:39] Tim’s opinion on the support of Web3 from venture capitalists. [0:44:02] Whether or not building technology outside of the government's reach is the right way to improve society. [0:46:46] Advice Tim has for those who are looking to get rich from cryptocurrencies. [0:50:35]
S2 E210 · Thu, July 21, 2022
Prof. Ludovic Phalippou: Private Equity, Under the Hood
If you have any interest in private equity or have thought about it as an asset class, then this episode is for you! What is private equity? This might seem a simple question but the answer is more complex than you think. Private equity is a nuanced subject that requires a deep understanding to make successful investments. To help unpack this non-trivial subject is expert Ludovic Phalippou, a Professor of Financial Economics at the University of Oxford Saïd Business School. Although he studied economics in general, his research mainly focuses on unravelling the complexities of private equity. He has written many papers on the topic, including a book called Private Equity Laid Bare. He has a Masters in Economics and a Masters in Mathematical Finance from the University of Southern California and a Ph.D. in Finance from INSEAD, making him well versed in the subject. Besides his impressive qualifications and experience, his insight and ability to speak to the data make him stand out from other experts. In our conversation, we get into the basics of private equity and what makes it attractive to investors. During our conversation we discuss the challenges for measuring performance, how to best measure the performance of private equity funds, the different facets associated with private equity, how to tell if certain private equities are a good investment, and the differences between private and public equity. We also hear how it is applied as he walks us through some real-world scenarios and gives us some insider knowledge on the best private equity options. As you will hear from our conversation, there is no easy answer! Key Points From This Episode: We learn what asset classes are included in the broad term of private equity. [0:03:39] The end-to-end process for investing in a typical private equity fund. [0:06:49] The challenges with measuring the performance of private equity managers. [0:09:48] How investments that have not yet been sold are treated when a manager is reporting on their performance. [0:12:48] Professor Phalippou explains how well the IRR captures the economic results delivered by a fund. [0:14:04] Whether there are alternative approaches to evaluating performance. [0:17:52] A discussion about the typical characteristics of a buyout fund. [0:19:35] The best approach for evaluating your private equity. [0:21:24] Find out if a public equity benchmark has to be adjusted for leverage, regarding buyouts. [0:24:26] We learn about the fees that private equity limited partners typically pay. [0:26:34] Outline of the less obvious fees that limited partners might be paying. [0:28:11] Whether an investor paying carry is a sign that the investment has done well. [0:31:07] Comparison of private equity performance relative to public equities. [0:32:31] What number Professor Phalip
Fri, July 15, 2022
Understanding Crypto 7: Nicholas Weaver: A Computer Scientist's Perspective on Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain
Dr. Nicholas Weaver’s well-known lectures on cryptocurrencies explain why he believes it needs to be “burned with fire.” Today, we speak to Dr. Weaver, an expert in computer science and a long-time observer of the cryptocurrency space. He holds a BA in Astrophysics and Computer Science and a Ph.D. in Computer Science from UC Berkeley, where he was also a lecturer until recently. His primary research focus has been network security, among other topics. His interest and search for comedy “godl” have also resulted in published papers on cryptocurrency. In our conversation, Dr. Weaver untangles the complexities of the perceptions of cryptocurrencies with the actual technology. We talk about decentralization, if cryptocurrencies are achieving it, and the underlying concept of blockchain technology, as well as whether or not blockchains are secure and what the potential benefits of cryptocurrencies are to developing countries. We then go into detail about why Dr. Weaver thinks the crypto space is not beneficial, why prestigious academic institutions are teaching about it, and why he thinks it will never work in the log-run. Please tune in for a truly eye-opening, no-holds-barred episode as we learn the harsh truth about cryptocurrencies with expert, Dr. Nicholas Weaver! Key Points From This Episode: What public blockchain technology can achieve that was not previously possible. [0:02:51] How well the original concept, introduced by Satoshi Nakamoto, is living up to its theoretical promise. [0:04:06] Weaver explains and outlines the general appeal of decentralization. [0:04:57] He elaborates on his perspective on trusted and honest authorities. [0:09:39] An explanation of how Lightning Network attempts to solve throughput limitation. [0:10:36] We find out if major blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum are decentralized. [0:13:08] Differences between how nodes and miners influence the network. [0:16:23] How secure public blockchains really are. [0:17:45] Whether a facility for censorship-resistant transactions, like Bitcoin, is a good thing for society. [0:20:30] Potential benefits of cryptocurrencies for people in countries with limited access to banking and a good legal system. [0:24:35] Steps governments can take to regulate and control cryptocurrencies. [0:26:47] Weaver’s opinion on why the regulation of cryptocurrencies has been so slow. [0:29:17] Outline of how Dr. Weaver sees cryptocurrencies developing in future. [0:31:38] How to incentivize miners not to attack the system to retain the value of Bitcoin. [0:38:2
S2 E209 · Thu, July 14, 2022
Optimal Allocations to Owned Housing & Gender Equality in Financial Planning
Welcome to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast! In today’s jam-packed episode, we start by going through the feedback received on our limited crypto series and outline upcoming guests. We also give a breakdown of Cal Newport’s book, Deep Work, and the importance and long-term benefits of engaging in deep work. We then follow-up on our recent episode with Rebecca Walker by discussing gender equality in financial planning. Lastly, tune in to also have a rundown of the housing market and its investment potential, price risks associated with home ownership, the effects homeowner’s occupation has on their household investment and more! Key Points From This Episode: We go through feedback received on the limited edition crypto series. [0:01:40] An outline of the upcoming guests we are going to have on the show. [0:05:51] This week’s book review, Deep Work written by Cal Newport. [0:09:01] Some of the common workplace problems highlighted in the book. [0:14:30] How work can be more enjoyable than free time and reasons why. [0:15:56] Ways to overcome common workplace problems and engage with ‘deep work.’ [0:16:47] The long-term benefits of engaging with deep work and why it is needed. [0:20:21] A follow-up on our recent episode with Rebecca Walker and the feedback received. [0:20:49] Discussion about the data that is related to Rebecca’s points from the episode. [0:22:10] We unravel the nuance concerning the gender pay gap and financial planning. [0:26:10] An important takeaway concerning our discussion on the gender pay gap. [0:33:19] Rundown of the housing market and its investment potential. [0:33:58] Find out how an owned home can act like an investment. [0:37:42] Learn more about ‘Portfolio Theory’ concerning property investment. [0:40:50] An interesting aspect regarding peoples’ occupation and property investments. [0:46:18] How people reduce the risk associated with property investments. [0:47:45]
Fri, July 08, 2022
Understanding Crypto 6: Bruce Schneier: Security, Trust, and Blockchain
Welcome back to another episode of our limited addition Crypto Series on the Rational Reminder Podcast, a weekly reality check about sensible investing and financial decision-making. Are cryptocurrencies and the associated technologies beneficial? Could they change the world for the better? There is a lot of controversy surrounding the use and application of cryptocurrencies and the associated technologies. Some say the innovation is ultimately useless while others think it is the answer to society’s problems. To help us unpack this complicated and hot-button topic is Bruce Schneier, an internationally-renowned security technologist, author, and educator. The focus of his work is the intersection of security, technology and people. Bruce also has an immense passion for educating people about cryptocurrencies. Examples of his well-known books include Liars and Outliers and Data and Goliath, which provide much-needed insight to readers about DeFi technologies and big monopolies. He also lectures in public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and is a fellow at the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society. In our conversation, we discuss the debate surrounding cryptocurrencies such as privacy concerns of digital cash, what makes Bitcoin different from earlier digital currencies, aspects of public blockchain technology, the misapplications of crypto technology, the different forms and approaches to cryptocurrencies, and whether DeFi technologies can be beneficial to society, and what the biggest concerns are regarding cryptocurrencies. Join us today as we take a detailed look into the value and drawbacks of crypto and DeFi technology with Bruce Schneier! Key Points From This Episode: What the objective was of early digital cash projects, like DigiCash. [0:03:27] The privacy concerns associated with digital cash. [0:04:45] Whether financial surveillance should be a concern for people. [0:05:45] Differences between Bitcoin and earlier forms of digital cash. [0:08:35] How good technology is at solving economic and political problems. [0:09:30] Details about the pieces that come together to make public blockchains work. [0:10:29] Why Bruce considers proof of work to be an idiotic way to form consensus. [0:13:43] Whether alternatives to proof of work resolve wasteful energy practices. [0:16:01] The new properties that public blockchains offer. [0:17:04] We find out if public blockchains do what their proponents say they do. [0:17:37] The claims that crypto proponents make regarding blockchain are discussed. [0:19:29] We discuss the misapplications of crypto and DeFi technologies. [0:20:23] Outline of the systems of trust that humans use to incentivize good behaviour. [0:23:26] Whether cryptocurrency technologies will become secure and trusted. [0:27:49] Reasons for the
S2 E208 · Thu, July 07, 2022
Rebecca Walker: Women Talk Money
There’s no doubt about it; money is a taboo topic in our society. But not talking about money only serves to uphold inequalities and injustices. Rebecca Walker is an advocate for transparency and, during this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, she shares the importance of exploring the factors that have influenced our relationship with money so that we can begin to understand how we can use money as a tool to effect the kind of changes we want to see in the world. This is the intention behind her latest collection, Women Talk Money. No matter your gender, race, or financial standing, this episode will provide you with a new perspective on how to approach money. Rebecca is a well-known speaker, author, consultant and was named by Time Magazine as one of the most influential leaders of her generation. Tune in today. Key Points From This Episode: What money represents and why it is so important that we understand it better. [0:02:21] The intention behind Rebecca’s latest collection, Women Talk Money . [0:03:05] A brief overview of some of the stories Rebecca shares in her book about our relationship with money and how it impacts our lives and society as a whole. [0:05:13] How race, class, and gender impact how knowledge about money is transferred. [0:08:50] Problems that arise when we aren’t transparent about our finances. [0:11:22] How the way we approach money ties into many broader societal issues. [0:15:45] Examples of how not talking about money renders people powerless. [0:17:45] Rebecca explains how she has taught her son about money from a young age. [0:20:58] Rebecca’s approach to talking to other people about money. [0:22:30] Issues that may stem from an obsession with money. [0:24:32] How Rebecca defines “enough.” [0:27:09] The role that men can play in empowering women in relation to money. [0:29:24] Advice for women who are struggling to form a healthy relationship with money. [0:33:33] How Rebecca defines success in her own life. [0:36:04]
Fri, July 01, 2022
Understanding Crypto 5: Stephen Diehl: The Case Against Crypto
Welcome back to another limited series of Rational Reminder Podcast, focused on learning about cryptocurrencies. Our journey about cryptocurrencies has led us to speak to various experts on the subject, all of whom see some benefits to cryptocurrencies and the underlying blockchain technology. However, what does a skeptic think about cryptocurrencies and the benefits to the current financial system? In today’s episode, we speak to Stephen Diehl, a software engineer who works with financial technology within the finance sector and is an outspoken cryptocurrency skeptic. His engineering background, coupled with his experience working with financial technology, provides a unique perspective on the future of cryptocurrencies. We move through the episode learning about public blockchain technology, different consensus mechanisms, what potential problems blockchain technology can solve, whether crypto can improve the current financial system, if Bitcoin really is decentralized, what drives crypto prices, reasons why crypto will not work, what makes it similar to gambling, and more. Tune in today to hear a unique opposing view of cryptocurrencies and DeFi technology with expert and skeptic, Stephen Diehl! Key Points From This Episode: A brief breakdown of public blockchain technology. [0:03:28] The current problems that public blockchain technology is trying to solve. [0:04:16] Proof of work consensus and how it tries to eliminate the need for a trusted third party. [0:05:44] Some of the downsides associated with the proof of work concept. [0:07:41] How other consensus mechanisms have improved the proof of work concept. [0:09:21] What the costs associated with proof of stake relative to proof of work are. [0:11:09] Problems that both consensus methods have regarding recentralization. [0:12:07] What other problems blockchain technologies can be used to solve. [0:12:50] The problems in the financial technological system that public blockchains solve. [0:14:29] Why finality of payments associated with cryptocurrencies is not a good thing. [0:15:42] What limitations can blockchain technology remove regarding international money transfers. [0:17:06] How to prevent double-spending under the current financial system. [0:20:34] What Stephen thinks drives the value of cryptocurrencies. [0:21:15] Whether Bitcoin is decentralized in Stephen’s opinion. [0:23:19] Reasons why concentrated mining power does not cultivate decentralization. [0:24:46] How permissioned blockchains can improve on the pitfalls of public blockchains. <
S2 E207 · Thu, June 30, 2022
What is Money? (plus Reading Habits w/ Dan Solin)
In today's episode, we share some updates from our Financial Goals Survey, respond to a listener who says we are wrong about dividends, and talk about Scout Mindset by Julia Galef. We then respond to a listener question about whether our comments in Episode 205 on private equity extend to private real estate. In our main topic, we unravel what money is by looking back at its origin story and the two competing theories about what it is. We discuss the ideological underpinnings of money and how these ideologies can make choosing a definition of money highly political. We end the episode talking to Dan Solin about his reading habits. Dan Solin joined us almost four years ago for an episode on evidence-based investing. Tuning in, you’ll hear how Dan finds the books he reads, what his favourite types of books are, and whether he recommends books to people, plus he shares why he believes reading is so essential, and much more. Don’t miss out on another well-rounded and informative episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Key Points From This Episode: An update on the progress of our Financial Goals Survey. [0:03:32] Your monthly update on the reading challenge and how to get involved. [0:04:52] An update from our limited crypto series and some of the feedback we’ve received. [0:08:00] This week’s book review: The Scout Mindset . [0:16:29] Simple set of tools to help you assess biases when receiving new information. [0:19:18] Following up on private investments concerning real estate. [0:24:32] Onto the main topic of the show with Dan Solin: money and what it is. [0:29:09] Where the perception and definition of money originated from. [0:31:00] Unpacking an alternative definition of money by Adam Smith. [0:37:32] The quantity theory of money and its application in the economy. [0:40:14] An interesting political aspect to forming John Locke’s theory of money. [0:46:49] Outlining of the history of opposing views on the theory of money. [0:47:25] A break down of the findings of an anthropological review investigating money. [0:49:47] How money is neither commodity nor quantity but rather a measure of credit. [0:51:32] The state theory of money and how it is different from other theories. [0:53:39] What sets the price level of money based on credit theory. [0:55:06] A discussion around money based on the several theories of what it is. [0:57:22] Why fiat money is not a derogatory term for currencies. [0:59:30]</str
Fri, June 24, 2022
Understanding Crypto 4: Prof. Tobin Hanspal: The Characteristics of Crypto Investors
Welcome to another special episode of Rational Reminder Podcast, a show to help us learn about cryptocurrencies and their role in our current and future financial systems. In today's show, we speak to Tobin Hanspal, an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Vienna University of Economics and Business who has written several papers focused on household finances. Tobin's research area offers insights into the behaviours of retail investors in the crypto space and how this may affect household finances. In this episode, we take a deep dive into some of the papers that Tobin has authored and how his findings relate to the behaviours and biases of crypto adopters. We discuss the investment behaviours of early crypto adopters, the role of EFTs in reducing risk, the different types of investor groups, how past experience negatively affects investor confidence, how behaviours change after an initial crypto investment, the disposition effect, how cryptocurrencies are an extension of existing behaviours, and much more! Be sure not to miss out on this informative episode with expert, Tobin Hanspal! Key Points From This Episode: How Tobin investigated the investment behaviour of early crypto adopters. [0:04:24] Whether indirect crypto investments are a good proxy for crypto investors. [0:08:10] Why it is important to consider the different types of investor groups. [0:10:23] The differences between individual characteristics of crypto adopters and non-adopters. [0:10:55] Comparison of eventual crypto adopters and non-adopters [0:12:37] What kind of sector ETFs do crypto adopters choose to invest in. [0:13:48] Differences between the crypto and non-crypto investors, in terms of typical investor behaviour biases. [0:15:01] How cryptocurrencies are an extension of traditional high-risk investing. [0:16:39] Whether the behaviour of investors changes after their first crypto investment. [0:17:37] The differences in behaviour between early and late adopters. [0:19:15] What insights Tobin has regarding the geographical location of crypto adopters. [0:20:36] What percentage of their portfolios’ do adopters allocate to crypto. [0:21:11] Find out if crypto investors buy lower-risk assets to make up for cryptocurrencies. [0:21:36] What differences exist between crypto and non-crypto investors regarding efficiency. [0:22:51] Description of the typical crypto investor characterized in their study. [0:23:39] Tobin explains the disposition effect and how belief systems play a role. [0:25:56] How risk appetite
S2 E206 · Thu, June 23, 2022
Prof. Vanessa Bohns: You Have More Influence Than You Think
Welcome back to another exciting and informative episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, a show all about finances and how to get the most of your money responsibly. To make the right decisions regarding your investments, besides the knowledge and understanding of financial systems, you also need to understand the psychology behind your decisions. To help us unpack this complicated and interesting subject is Professor Vanessa Bohns, a Social Psychologist and Professor of Organizational Behaviour at Cornell University. Professor Bohns has a Ph.D. in Psychology from Columbia and is the author of You Have More Influence Than You Think: How We Underestimate Our Power of Persuasion, and Why It Matters. The topic of the book is exactly what today’s show is about, as we delve into the intricacies of human behaviour and decision-making. In today’s episode, we learn about the influence that people have on one another, how people perceive one another, the human behaviours that scammers take advantage of, why people worry about saying the wrong thing, what the default behaviour of people is, why people struggle to say no to a request, and so much more! Don’t miss out on this fascinating episode with special guest and expert, Professor Vanessa Bohns! Key Points From This Episode: How much impact and influence people have on one another. [0:03:09] What people tend to notice about other people. [0:04:50] Why people don’t realize what other people are paying attention to. [0:08:58] How being in the presence of other people affects experiences. [0:10:31] Whether communicating with someone about a shared experience amplifies it. [0:12:41] Reasons why some people are underconfident in their social lives. [0:13:20] Problems that stem from underconfidence. [0:15:52] The consequences of underestimating how much people like us. [0:18:02] Why people worry about saying the wrong thing. [0:20:53] Whether it is default to believe or disbelieve when assessing information. [0:22:55] The impact of people interacting with people anonymously. [0:26:01] How the default to believe people impacts receiving advice from experts. [0:27:22] The authority on a subject can switch between domains of expertise. [0:31:19] Ways in which scammers take advantage of behavioural biases. [0:32:22] Problems caused by people being dishonest or spreading false information. [0:34:47] Approaches to ensure that you are not spreading misinformation unintentionally. [0:36:04] Why asking for what you want is so effective. <stro
Fri, June 17, 2022
Understanding Crypto 3: Eswar Prasad: Bitcoin, Banking, and the Future of Money
Welcome back to another episode of our series focusing on cryptocurrencies. In this episode, we dive into conceptual complexities surrounding cryptocurrencies and how this might affect the financial system in future. To help us unravel this nuanced subject is Professor Eswar Prasad, a senior professor of trade policy and Professor of Economics at Cornell University, and a senior fellow at Brookings Institution. He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and was a former head of the IMF China Division. Besides his wealth of experience regarding traditional economies, he is also an authority on cryptocurrencies, which he explains in detail in his book The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance . In today’s conversation, we discuss broad conceptual ideas surrounding money and finance, such as the basic functions of money, the difference between outside and inside money, the limitations on creating wealth, how cryptocurrencies work, how cryptocurrencies may disrupt financial systems, why cryptocurrencies need trust to work, the future of cryptocurrencies, and much more. Tune in today to get insider information on cryptocurrencies with our special guest, Professor Eswar Prasad. Key Points From This Episode: A brief outline of Professor Eswar Prasad’s professional background. [0:01:14] Professor Prasad explains what the basic functions of money are. [0:01:59] We learn if money is a commodity or a social contract. [0:02:33] The problems associated with fiat currencies. [0:03:00] What the concepts of inside and outside money are. [0:04:12] Factors that constrain the creation of outside money. [0:05:34] Whether mechanically constrained money is good for economies. [0:07:07] Learn whether commercial banks need deposits to make loans. [0:08:46] What the definition of fungibility is. [0:10:24] How and why reserves are usually maintained by a central bank. [0:11:19] What the differences are between physical cash and electronic money. [0:12:25] The anonymity associated with each of the payment methods available. [0:13:28] What the main functions of the financial system are. [0:15:14] Find out what the definition of shadow banking is. [0:17:01] How trust in the financial system is facilitated. [0:18:29] We find out if modern financial systems can be disintermediated by technology. [0:20:33] The potential effects that intermediaries can have on economies. [0:22:59] What Satoshi Nakamoto’s
S2 E205 · Thu, June 16, 2022
Tech vs. Value, and Private Equity vs. Public Equity
Welcome to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. In today’s jam-packed episode, hear updates regarding our goals survey, the schedule for upcoming guests on the show, the latest news and highlights from the financial world, and some of the feedback we have received about the show. We also highlight interesting articles and papers regarding tech valuations, expected stock returns, the performance of venture capital funds, and a book recommendation that will help you understand the finance game. Tune in to learn about the results of the recent social survey in Canada, the basics of private equity funds, the challenges of calculating the Internal Rate of Returns for investors, some of the misconceptions surrounding private equity, and much more! Don’t miss out on this informative and well-rounded episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast with your two favourite Canadians! Key Points From This Episode: We start the show with an exciting announcement for our listeners. [0:02:07] An update regarding the Goals Survey Project and what needs to be done. [0:03:30] A rundown of the upcoming guests for the show. [0:04:44] Outline of the reviews and criticisms received about the show. [0:05:55] A breakdown of the book for today’s review, Finite and Infinite Games. [0:10:07] Background about the author of the book, James P. Carse. [0:10:57] The main point of the book: the differences between finite and infinite games. [0:11:16] An interesting quote from the book regarding culture. [0:14:42] Highlights of the recent news and updates in the financial world. [0:17:02] Insights from an interesting article about tech valuations by Cliff Asness. [0:19:47] Another interesting paper by David Blitz about expected stock returns. [0:23:09] A discussion regarding the recent social survey implemented in Canada. [0:26:07] We discuss the basics of private equity as an investment strategy. [0:30:06] Why the math used is problematic for calculating the Internal Rate of Return. [0:32:35] The results of a paper which investigated the performance of venture capital funds. [0:39:01] More insights from follow-up papers about private equity. [0:42:24] Examples of the type of risk exposures that private equity provides. [0:49:36] The impacts associated with the preference for illiquid assets. [0:52:00] Some of the misconceptions surrounding diversity in private equity funds. [0:52:44] What are the best metrics to use to me
Fri, June 10, 2022
Understanding Crypto 2: Igor Makarov: Economics of the Crypto Ecosystem
Understanding the complexity surrounding cryptocurrencies is essential in making the correct decisions regarding investing in DeFi technology. To help us understand the basics, we talked to Dr. Igor Makarov who is an expert on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, particularly Bitcoin and the associated mining processes. He is based at the London School of Economics, where he serves as an Associate Professor of Finance. Dr. Makarov is also the author of several papers focusing on DeFi and crypto markets in general and has provided new insights surrounding governance and mining processes. In today’s show, we learn about the basics of cryptocurrencies, mining and the future of DeFi. In particular, we talk about the role of intermediaries, what drives the prices of Bitcoin, how concentrated mining processes are, the role DeFi in increasing governance, the upsides and downsides of cryptocurrencies, and much more. Tune in to make sure you don’t miss out on advice from a respected figure in the industry, Dr. Igor Makarov! Key Points From This Episode: A brief outline of Dr. Makarov’s professional background and experience. [0:00:39] What role do intermediaries play in the traditional financial system. [0:02:36] Find out if economic rents that intermediaries collect are unwarranted. [0:03:36] Makarov explains the complexities of cryptocurrencies and the elimination of fees. [0:06:06] How rents are different on cryptocurrency exchanges. [0:09:44] Systemic risks associated with the traditional banking system. [0:11:24] Whether Bitcoin and DeFi can improve banking by reducing systemic risk. [0:13:22] Learn if blockchain or DeFi ecosystems can exist without human intervention. [0:15:06] Why it is unlikely decentralized autonomous organizations will improve governance. [0:17:06] Breakdown of the potential problems that concentration of ownership could have on governance. [0:19:53] Opportunities where cryptocurrencies and DeFi can improve the traditional financial system. [0:21:44] Some of the potential benefits of a permissioned distributed ledger system. [0:24:39] Why is it important to understand the Bitcoin ecosystem. [0:26:22] What are the limitations of understanding the Bitcoin ecosystem. [0:27:12] How Bitcoin addresses are associated with with real-world entities. [0:29:36] Ways to differentiate between addresses belonging to individual investors and those belonging to intermediaries. [0:31:42] What happens when you send Bitcoins to an exchange. [0:32:49] Details on how Dr. Makarov calculated the concentration of Bitcoins. [0:33:25] How did Dr. Makarov gain an understanding of what Bitcoin is used for. [0:37:14] The role exchanges play in influencing the total volume of Bitcoin transactions. [0:39:00] Why exchanges are essential to the overall
S2 E204 · Thu, June 09, 2022
John A. List: Improving the World with Economics
John List is the recently appointed Chief Economist at Walmart, and is also a Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, having worked as the Chief Economist at Uber and Lyft. He has published a huge array of important papers in the field of economics and is also the author of the recent book The Voltage Effect, which deals with the question of how to scale ideas successfully. We are very excited to bring you this episode, which is a particularly illuminating one, in which we draw on John's treasure trove of insight and experience, to answer a long list of questions related to personal finance decision-making. A large portion of our chat focuses on the central ideas of critical thinking and fieldwork, practices that our guest views as indispensable in making the world a better place. Along the way we get John's thoughts on retirement planning, public policy, charitable donations, and much more, so make sure to press play on this fantastic episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Key Points From This Episode: John explains the importance of fieldwork in the study of economics. [0:03:51] Examples of field experiments that overturned a supposed economic truth. [0:05:15] Finding ways to test theories that previously proved difficult. [0:08:30] The question of generalizing findings from an experiment to a wider rule. [0:13:30] Replication in academic studies; John unpacks its central importance. [0:20:46] Why positive results tend to garner a publication bias. [0:23:38] John's perspective on checking in on investment portfolios. [0:24:40] What the data shows us about investment behaviours of men and women. [0:28:38] Accounting for the drive to give to charity. [0:35:20] Advice for how to make the most of your donations. [0:39:42] John unpacks his findings on scaling, its importance, and what he calls 'the voltage effect'. [0:44:41] The impact of technological advancement on our ability to scale certain solutions. [0:48:27] How field experiments can influence the process of scaling big ideas. [0:54:47] Hindrances to healthy scaling; confirmation biases, and herding. [0:56:17] Impacts of loss aversion and marginal thinking when scaling ideas. [1:05:28] Reasons for the difficulty of tackling globally important issues; multidimensionality and politics. [1:15:10] Weighing the utility of incentives when trying to encourage retirement savings. [1:19:16] Thoughts on bringing more reliable science into the policy-making process. [1:21:26]</st
Fri, June 03, 2022
Understanding Crypto 1: Daniel Mescheder: What Problem Do Blockchains Actually Solve?
Fundamentals of the Blockchain with Daniel Mescheder Episode 1: Show Notes Welcome to the first episode of our limited series focusing on cryptocurrencies and everything you need to know about them. Our first guest is Daniel Mescheder, who joins us to appropriately break down some of the basic concepts and engineering of the blockchain, using his expertise as a software engineer as the lens for this discussion. We felt this chat was the best way to launch the series and prepare listeners for the following episodes on the subject, and you can expect to hear Daniel share very helpful insight and explanations of fundamental terms and concepts such as distributed systems, consensus, hashing, digital signatures, and more. We also have time for our guest to weigh in on the subjects of smart contracts and NFTs, both of which are regular points of intrigue for the uninitiated. Importantly, we do hear from Daniel about the limitations of the technology at present, and which types of technological problems that he believes the blockchain is well-suited to address. So for all this and more, and to start this journey with us into such an important and hot topic, make sure to listen in. Key Points From This Episode: The reasons for Daniel's interest and involvement with the blockchain and cryptocurrencies. [0:03:33] Daniel compares the hype around AI in the 1980s and the current atmosphere for crypto. [0:04:50] Getting to grips with Daniel's specific perspective on the blockchain and explaining distributed systems. [0:06:34] How the concept of consensus fits into the subject of distributed systems. [0:11:17] Looking at Byzantine consensus problems and how these occur on the blockchain. [0:13:51] Daniel gives an overview of the elements that make the blockchain functional; hashing and digital signatures. [0:19:17] How Satoshi Nakamoto introduced an economic incentive to comply with the protocol. [0:24:09] Differentiating between the public and permissioned blockchains, and databases. [0:27:33] How Bitcoin achieves consensus and some of the downsides of proof of work. [0:33:31] An assessment of the decentralized status of the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains. [0:41:16] The amount of control that is held by miners in relation to transactions. [0:45:27] Understanding interactions between the blockchain and other external systems. [0:49:16] Immutability and the blockchain; what the rules allow and the questions that still need to be answered. [0:52:47] Basic engineering downsides to the blockchain. [0:5
S2 E203 · Thu, June 02, 2022
S*** (Misguided) Financial Advisors Say
We have a jam-packed episode for all of our listeners today, with two guests, a lot of news, and many great resource recommendations. We start off by rounding up some recent updates from the world of finance and the Rational Reminder community, and spend some time talking about Ben's recent paper, titled 'Finding and Funding Good Life'. We are then joined by Robb Engen, for his third appearance on the show, to talk about how he helps his clients move on from unhealthy advisory relationships. Robb shares some of the surprising, disturbing, and ridiculous rebuttals that he has come into contact with over the years, and we reflect on the recent Twitter storm that occurred as a result of Robb sharing some of these. After this great chat with Robb, we are very happy to welcome back author of How to Change , Katy Milkman, who was recently a guest on the show, to discuss her reading habits, tips for memory, and how she balances producing and consuming both podcasts and books. To take part in this bounty of great information and inspiring ideas from these two guests, please make sure to join us today. Key Points From This Episode: Reflecting on and investigating Ben's paper, 'Finding and Funding Good Life'. [0:10:59] How this podcast has increased our interest in learning about and sharing non-financial ideas. [0:15:30] The part that hindsight and regret play in our estimations of happiness. [0:20:08] Looking forward to our podcast miniseries in which we explore cryptocurrencies. [0:22:41] The basics of the blockchain and digital cash in light of new technology. [0:29:02] The context that sparked today's conversation with Robb. [0:35:49] Robb explains his typical client, their portfolio, and why they contact him. [0:38:30] How Robb approaches assessing a portfolio and communicating possible drawbacks. [0:40:43] Ways in which active managers are practicing bad investment habits themselves. [0:44:02] Tracking the progress from active to passive for those that Robb works with. [0:47:09] Advice from Robb for managing the end of a relationship with an active manager. [0:48:15] Robb shares some examples of how advisors have responded to 'break-up notices'. [0:52:07] A round of Talking Cents cards with Rob; addressing social issues in a new business, quitting a job, saving versus spending, and more. [1:02:26] Katy describes her reading habits and her use of audiobooks. [1:08:15] Tips and tricks from Katy for information retention and idea compilation. [1:09:20] Thoughts on the connected nature of the behavioural s
S2 E202 · Thu, May 26, 2022
Antti Ilmanen: The Building Blocks of Long-Run Returns
To carry on the trend of amazing guests on the show, today we welcome Antti Ilmanen. Antti is the co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR, and the author of a couple of really impactful books that we highly recommend. His most recent is Investing Amid Low Expected Returns, and in today's chat, we get to hear all about the ideas contained in its pages, and the most important moments in his career that have shaped his philosophy. Antti received his PhD in Finance from the University of Chicago and has had a long career of working with high profile names that you might recognize from past episodes of this podcast. Our guest talks about the need for cultivating your patience in relation to your investment portfolio and shares many other great pieces of practical advice that you can implement today. We delve into some bad investment habits that Antti noted in his book and also touch on the usefulness of bonds, illiquid assets, trend following, and much more. Be sure to tune in today to hear all that this great mind has to offer. Key Points From This Episode: The power and limitations of using historical data for calculating expected returns. [0:04:17] Balancing historical data with market-implied expected returns. [0:07:47] Antti comments on shifting into higher expected return equity markets. [0:11:37] The role of bonds in revenue generation and why to not give up on them completely. [0:13:00] Locating the roots of the positive premium that Antti associates with bonds. [0:16:35] The effect of illiquid assets on expected returns. [0:19:44] Why recent historical returns in real estate are not indicative of future expected returns. [0:23:40] The response from institutional investors to lower expected returns. [0:26:09] Situating value's current dip in a broader historical picture. [0:29:57] Some comments on the recent performance of rates, growth, and value. [0:33:39] Today's expected value returns in comparison with other points in history. [0:37:19] Antti unpacks the idea of trend following and its performance during the most recent crash. [0:39:53] Defining the defensive style premium and its relation to quality. [0:41:26] Antti differentiates carry and value strategies from each other. [0:45:55] An explanation of the importance of being 'long-short' to capturing the premium. [0:51:24] Locating the difference between alternative risk premia and alpha. [0:55:31] Practical tips for investors to wait out periods of poor performance. [0:57:45] The
S2 E201 · Thu, May 19, 2022
The Relevance of Dividend Irrelevance
Today, on the Rational Reminder Podcast, we are tackling a few interesting topics that tie into recent and forthcoming conversations with our amazing guests. In this 'us only' episode, we are focusing on thematic ETFs and the truth about dividend investing. After a quick look at The Quick Fix by Jesse Singal, some reflections on the past six months at ARK Invest, and the lessons we can still learn from the dot-com crash, we get into the meat of today's episode by way of Ben's recent experiences on a discussion panel about the utility of thematic investing. From there, we transition into the 'relevance of dividend irrelevance' and share some of the most illuminating and pertinent findings. In the end, our argument is simply that dividends are not the way to go and are an inefficient policy on many fronts. This has not deterred many investors, however, and we get to grips with the kinds of behaviours associated with dividends before espousing what this can mean for you and your objectives. To catch all of this and links to some of the best research available, be sure to listen in with us today. Key Points From This Episode: Today's book review of The Quick Fix by Jesse Singal and its critique of popular psychology. [0:12:30] Inflows at ARK Invest; the startling commitment that we are currently seeing. [0:21:48] Reflections and information that we dug up on the dot-com crash in the '90s. [0:22:30] Notes on thematic ETFs garnered from the recent panel Ben was on. [0:25:09] Disentangling the relevance of dividend irrelevance. [0:35:45] The performance of a dividend portfolio and a better idea of expected returns. [0:40:28] Empirical findings about dividend investors and their actions in relation to yields, diversification, and more. [0:42:01] The tax inefficiency of dividends and what this means for capital gains. [0:49:01] Underlining the importance of dividend investor's consumption and its sensitivity to dividends. [0:51:31] How the problem with dividends is compounded outside of the US. [0:57:11]
S2 E200 · Thu, May 12, 2022
Prof. Eugene Fama
We are so happy to bring you all our 200th episode, and who better to have on the podcast on this auspicious occasion than the legendary, Professor Gene Fama? This is one of the most jam-packed episodes we have ever recorded, with Gene providing concise and thought-provoking answers to our many, many questions. After delving into the foundations of Gene's work and philosophy, covering market efficiency, and its competing theories, Gene entertains our queries about a wide range of ideas and models, and generously shares the decades worth of wisdom that he is so widely known for. We also find time to talk about retirement plans, inflation, cryptocurrencies, and the influence of machine learning. Towards the end of our conversation, our guest touches on some more personal ideas about productivity, his career, his partnership with Ken French, and what success means to him at this point. For a landmark episode, with a true hero of the evidence-based approach to investing, make sure not to miss this. Key Points From This Episode: The basics of market efficiency and its main implications for investors. [0:04:49] Limitations of the efficient markets model for explaining specific cases. [0:08:02] Gene's perspective on the inelastic markets hypothesis and his interest in it for the future. [0:09:36] The anomalies that brought down the capital asset pricing model. [0:10:26] Unpacking the three-factor and five-factor asset pricing models that Fama and French created. [0:11:43] Thoughts on the Q-factor model, factor premiums, and data dredging. [0:15:43] Gene's reflections on building data sets dating back to the 1920s. [0:17:13] The best way to estimate expected returns and expected factor premiums according to Gene. [0:19:52] Structuring portfolios and how different investors should approach this. [0:24:10] Considering international diversification for investors in Canada. [0:29:05] Further thoughts on asset pricing models. [0:32:47] The assets that are hedged against expected and unexpected inflation. [0:33:31] Gene illuminates the role of the Fed in relation to inflation. [0:36:43] Advice for typical retirees from Gene. [0:38:22] The challenges that Gene has experienced translating theory into practice. [0:40:16] Lesson from Gene's work with Dimension Fund Advisors. [0:43:47] Gene's reflections on his impact and having his theories implemented in practice. [0:45:32] Weighing the value and impact of behavioral finance. [0:47:53] Technology
S2 E199 · Thu, May 05, 2022
What Happens after Bonds Crash? (plus Reading with Aydin Mirzaee)
As we near the 200th episode of our little podcast, we wanted to have a chat with our friend Aydin Mirzaee about one of our favourite topics: books. Before welcoming Aydin into the conversation we round up some important news, go deeper than ever into the fascinating subject of bonds, and share some thoughts on Setting the Table. As the host of the Supermanagers Podcast and the CEO of Fellow, Aydin has an unusual and stimulating perspective on many of our usual interests, and we get to hear from him about the development of his own reading habit, what he most enjoys reading, what would make him recommend a book to someone else, and few pieces of advice for strengthening your reading practices. Aydin also talks about why advice can be dangerous, increasing your ability to retain information, and he is generous enough to do a round of Talking Sense cards with us to finish off the episode. To hear it all, make sure to join us. Key Points From This Episode: Today's book review, looking at Setting the Table by Danny Meyers. [0:08:47] Christopher Bloomstran's thought-provoking critique of Ark Invest. [0:18:06] A follow-up on our ongoing discussion about bonds and look at their recovery time. [0:20:04] Comparing real returns across the different decades. [0:27:30] Research into a more complete view of the historical returns of stocks versus bonds. [0:39:31] How correlations come into the conversation about stocks and bonds. [0:42:54] Aydin describes his reading habits; audiobooks on a commute, hacks, and more. The different purposes of books and how Aydin uses business content to generate ideas. [0:49:40] Books as leverage and some thoughts from Aydin on his favourite genres. [0:52:27] Where Aydin sources his books and what it takes for him to decide to recommend books to others. [0:56:12] The role that podcasts play in Aydin's reading habits. [0:58:30] Aydin's advice for how to read more and his approach to encouraging his children. [0:59:12] Considering different ways to increase information retention. [1:02:11] A round of Talking Cents cards with Aydin! [1:03:34]
S2 E198 · Thu, April 28, 2022
Gerard O’Reilly: Deep Dive with Dimensional’s co-CEO & CIO
You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to work at Dimensional Fund Advisors, but Gerard O’Reilly sees it as an asset, particularly when it comes to problem-solving. Now the Co-CEO and Chief Investment Officer of one of the fastest-growing US investment businesses, Gerard received a Ph.D. in aeronautics before entering fund management, attracted to Dimensional because of the opportunity it afforded him to learn from the world-leading economists at the company; including Eugene Fama, Myron Scholes, Merton Miller, Robert Merton, and Ken French. We recently sat down with Gerard to discuss the firm’s research-based culture and rules-based approach to investing. In this episode, we get into the nitty-gritty regarding Dimensional’s distinctive portfolio management decisions and the data sources they draw from and Gerard answers some technical questions regarding risk assessment, factor tilted portfolios, operating profitability, goodwill, and more. We also touch on the value of combining multiple metrics, why small-cap stocks deserve a place in your portfolio, and some of the biggest changes that Gerard has witnessed in Dimensional portfolios over the past decade, as well as how he applies his scientific learnings to make unique portfolio adjustments and some of the various benefits of Dimensional’s integrated approach. Make sure not to miss this informative, insightful, and in-depth conversation with Dimensional CIO and Co-CEO, Gerard O’Reilly! Key Points From This Episode: Market-cap-weighted passive strategies versus Dimensional’s rules-based higher expected return strategy. [0:03:45] Assessing risk based on the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). [0:07:07] Diversification in a factor tilted portfolio versus a cap-weighted market portfolio. [0:10:57] What criteria the variables that Dimensional uses need to meet before they’re considered dimensions of expected returns. [0:13:00] Sources Dimensional draws from regarding portfolio decisions and implementation. [0:16:09] How Gerard decides between underweighting or excluding securities in portfolios. [0:19:59] Why Dimensional uses operating profitability rather than cash-based profitability. [0:22:38] Gerard’s view on intangible assets, goodwill, and Dimensional’s investment strategy. [0:29:31] The value of including internally developed intangibles in value and profitability metrics. [0:37:49] Gerard reflects on the opinion that Fama and French’s findings are no longer valid. [0:42:58] Whether or not it’s better to combine multiple metrics to measure relative price. [0:46:41] How Dimensional targets value and profitability together (for large and small caps). [0:50:39] How Gerard thinks about capacity for investment strategies in small and micro-cap stocks as Dimensional continues to grow. [0:54:03] Understanding how entering into the ETF m
S2 E197 · Thu, April 21, 2022
The Immortality of Bonds
Many people have been contemplating the death of bonds, which is why for the main topic of today’s episode we’re going to be talking about their immortality. After a vicarious trip to The Masters, an overview of The Art of Insubordination, and an explanation of why we’re concerned about the changes that WealthSimple has made to their business model, we get into the world of bonds. Bond returns have not been good this year, and bond index funds are down all round, but that doesn’t mean that bonds are necessarily the riskier choice of investment in the long term, or that you should be feeling disheartened about them. Tune into our conversation today to hear why! Key Points From This Episode: The incredible experience of attending The Masters, and how you can win a ticket. [0:02:21] Three business-focused TV series that we highly recommend. [0:02:27] Upcoming guests, and some very positive listener reviews. [0:03:34] An overview of The Art of Insubordination . [0:09:16] Why change is challenging for most people, and the value of creating environments that encourage dissent. [0:11:12] How dissenters can make their actions more impactful, and what leaders can do to encourage dissent. [0:13:16] Key takeaways from The Art of Insubordination . [0:16:39] Why we are disappointed with the changes that Wealthsimple has made to their business. [0:18:47] Nuances that Wealthsimple has left out of their venture capital analysis. [0:23:51] Today’s main topic: the immortality of bonds. [0:33:38] Statistics which highlight the fact that bond returns have not been good this year. [0:33:51] Why volatility is not the only risk that matters. [0:35:06] How Ken French defines risk. [0:37:51] Some of the pros and cons of bonds and stocks. [0:38:56] Calculations which show that stocks are not necessarily less volatile than bonds in the long run. [0:40:48] The five components of long-run predictive variance. [0:43:23] An explanation of a model we created for the dispersion of outcomes. [0:45:10] Why now is the time to get excited about bonds. [0:49:27] Today’s first misconception: high growth sectors/regions/companies are good investments. [0:53:52] Today’s second misconception: you can lose all of your money in stocks. [0:55:57]
S2 E196 · Thu, April 14, 2022
Sebastien Betermier: Hedging, Sentiment, and the Cross-Section of Equity Premia
Welcome back to the show all about sensible investing in Canada! Today we have yet another masterclass with a wonderful guest, Sebastien Betermier. Sebastian is an Associate Professor of Finance at Desautels Faculty of Management at McGill University, where he teaches investment management, applied investments, and pension funds retirement systems. We have a deep, thoughtful, and precise conversation with him about his recent research and papers, much of which stands in contrast to our usual fare on the show. In our chat, we dive into the nuts and bolts of asset allocation, hedging risk, and his research into what demographics can teach us about investment behaviours and returns. We also hear from our guest about interesting topics of expected persistence and tilting towards value stocks, before shifting the conversation towards homeownership and property investment. Sebastien provides some sound advice around when it might be a good idea to purchase property over other asset classes, and we evaluate this position from a number of different investing perspectives. Lastly, we spend some time looking at pension plans, and what we can learn from those available in Canada right now. Key Points From This Episode: Sebastien explains the theoretical relationship between labor income and financial asset allocation. [0:04:30] Findings on hedging labour income risks and the paper that Sebastien published on the subject. [0:06:47] The relationships between risk and age, gender, wealth, and heterogeneity across households. [0:10:05] Unpacking Sebastien's investigation into value and growth investors. [0:12:07] The effect that the characteristics of labor income have on the rate of progression on the value ladder. [0:18:43] What we can learn about expected persistence in the value premium. [0:22:39] Weighing the possibility of predictive demographics for future value premiums. [0:24:29] Advice for young investors looking to tilt towards value stocks. [0:27:50] Explaining differing returns according to the characteristics of people. [0:29:41] Sebastien explains the factors of markets, wealth, and age, in the pricing model. [0:31:24] Understanding how investors tilt to age and wealth factors, and what these portfolios look like. [0:38:19] The impact of age and wealth factors on wealth inequality, and how younger investors can combat this. [0:42:19] Possible rationales for homeownership and the storage of wealth in housing. [0:44:26] The household characteristics that are predictive of larger allocations to housing. [0:48:49] Economic importance of
S2 E195 · Thu, April 07, 2022
Common Misconceptions Among Beginner Investors
The world of personal finance is full of axioms, and new investors can get caught up in investing myths and ‘rules of thumb’ that are limiting at best and lead to underperformance and unnecessary losses at worst. In this week’s episode, we outline some of the common misconceptions that new investors have, the evidence (or lack thereof) surrounding them, and how to think more like a seasoned investor. Is value investing really a safer strategy with lower expected returns? Do you need to employ a Buffett-Lynch stock picking approach when value investing? Are all index funds good investments? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and gain some insight into the relationship between risk and return, dividend investing versus total risk investing, and whether or not exclusively investing in US stocks is a good idea, plus so much more! Key Points From This Episode: Upcoming guests, including Professor Eugene Fama in Episode 200. [0:01:27] An update on our 22 in 22 Reading Challenge, with over 1,000 books read. [0:05:30] A review of The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth and lessons learned. [0:07:18] A quick overview of The Bond King , the story of Bill Gross by Mary Childs. [0:17:10] This week’s news stories: 24/7 investing from Robinhood, stock splits, Wealthsimple portfolio changes, and more. [0:20:02] Our main topic: some of the common misconceptions that new investors have. [0:28:50] Whether or not value investing is a safer strategy with lower expected returns. [0:30:42] Some examples of where the myth that value stocks are safer comes from. [0:33:25] The fallacy that value investing requires discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. [0:40:52] Why Warren Buffett’s outcome could be a challenge to systematic value investing. [0:43:41] Debunking the misconception at all index funds are good investments. [0:46:48] Conversely, Ben shares why not all actively managed funds are bad investments. [0:47:34] Why all exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking an asset class are not the same. [0:48:12] The myth that risk and return are always related and the cases when this isn’t true. [0:51:02] Ben shares his reflections on the misconception that dividend investing is less risky than total return investing. [0:53:14] Analysis that demonstrates whether or not dividends are actually safer. [0:56:09] Our last misconception for today: you should only invest in US stocks because they perform best. [0:59:40]
S2 E194 · Thu, March 31, 2022
Bill Janeway: Investing in the Innovation Economy
When it comes to the uncertain future of financial markets and technological innovation, a deep understanding of history and the roots of the systems at play in our contemporary climate is often overlooked. This is the argument made by Bill Janeway, our guest on the show today and the author of Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy. We have a fascinating conversation with Bill who has vast experience in both the academic and venture capital spheres, having spent years working in both sectors. Bill does an amazing job of sharing his expertise, talking about the role of the state in innovation, how venture capital actually operates, and what the innovation economy means for those who are not on the vanguard of technological progress. We discuss how investors can think about allocating their assets in relation to innovative companies, Bill's reflections and advice regarding financial bubbles, and how Bill applies his understanding to current questions about cryptocurrencies and decentralization. Bill's lifelong passion and commitment to learning about the history of economics and the financial markets makes him a deeply valuable resource and having him on the show was so illuminating, we hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. Key Points From This Episode: Bill explains his concept of the 'three-player game' and how it brings together two important histories. [0:03:13] The role of venture capital in technological innovation in the last 50 years. [0:05:16] Findings on the returns experienced by entrepreneurs in light of VC structures. [0:10:22] Thinking about venture capital as a private investor; best approaches for asset allocation. [0:15:05] Investing in innovation and assessing secondary market public equity benefits. [0:20:02] Bill explores the relationship between innovation and financial bubbles. [0:31:43] Waste and innovation; what we should expect as we progress. [0:35:43] The people left behind by innovation; who has taken the role of trade unions? [0:41:09] Bill weighs in on the question of cryptocurrencies and their place in the conversation about innovation. [0:45:38] Investment in crypto from big firms; separating the 'adults' from the crooks. [0:51:36] Why a deep understanding of history is paramount to sustainable innovation. [0:53:10] Bill's personal definition of success; staying motivated for work! [0:55:15]
S2 E193 · Thu, March 24, 2022
(Modern) Modern Portfolio Theory
Today on Rational Reminder we take a deep dive into the evolution of modern portfolio theory. We kick the show off with some updates and reviews on some of the brilliant shows and books we are watching right now. A key item from this selection is Stolen Focus: Why You Can’t Pay Attention and the points it makes about the value of flow state for learning and creativity. After this week’s news stories, we get into the main topic, and Ben starts with a breakdown of portfolio theory as it was laid out by Harry Markowitz in 1952. From there we talk about research that shaped the current understanding of portfolio theory, exploring the distinction between the mean-variance efficient portfolio and the multi-factor efficient portfolio, and how they theoretically combine to make the market portfolio. One of the biggest takeaways here is that your financial asset portfolios can look the same in terms of asset allocation but the person with more macroeconomic risk in the remainder of their financial situation is taking on more risk. Additionally, even if somebody is the perfect candidate to be the mean-variance investor and they could theoretically tilt toward value, it doesn’t necessarily mean they have to. We wrap up our conversation by inviting our good friend Larry Swedroe onto the show to speak about his love of reading and share his methods for incorporating what he learns from books into his work and thinking. Key Points From This Episode: Updates: Shows, books, upcoming guests, reviews, and our reading challenge. [0:00:22] A review on Stolen Focus: Why You Can’t Pay Attention . [0:11:00] News stories for the week: Wealthfront offers thematic ETFs and more. [0:18:47] Moving onto the main topic for today: How modern portfolio theory has changed since 1952. [0:23:00] Lessons to be taken away from Markowitz’s 1952 portfolio theory. [0:25:09] How the math changes when you have a risk-free asset in your portfolio problem. [0:26:59] The capital asset pricing model: the other foundational portfolio theory principle that comes from the mean-variance model. [0:29:08] Portfolio advice that stems from mean-variance optimization. [0:32:46] Building a tangency by expressing information beliefs. [0:36:06] Findings from Michael Jensen’s 1967 application of the CAPM. [0:37:04] Why diversification is important according to Markowitz’s portfolio theory. [0:38:02] Why the CAPM does not accurately reflect the relationship between risk and expected return. [0:39:49] The origins of multi-factor thinking and examples of multi-factor models. [0:41:10] How the allocatio
S2 E192 · Thu, March 17, 2022
Alex Edmans: Growing the Pie: A Different Take on ESG
We always appreciate research-based arguments here at the Rational Reminder and when those arguments might rattle some assumptions we get particularly excited. Today we have an eye-opening conversation with finance professor Alex Edmans, in which he discusses his idea of growing the pie and how social change and value relate to investor decisions. Alex's work is deeply rooted in skepticism and a critical method of assessing evidence, an approach that has resulted in surprising and sometimes paradoxical findings. We get into a fascinating conversation dealing with employee satisfaction and ESG, with Alex challenging some commonly held beliefs around socially responsible investing, with the data to back it up. A strong theme that emerged during our chat is the need for these conversations to be grounded in research, instead of empty rhetoric, and Alex's data-rich perspective is a great inspiration. Towards the end of the episode, Alex talks about the practical, individual application of his ideas, and how an empowered employee can add value on any level. So, to hear all this and a whole lot more unmissable insight, join us on the show. Key Points From This Episode: Unpacking what Alex means by 'growing the pie' and differentiating this from other similar-sounding goals. [0:02:38] How to go about measuring the growth of the pie, and the pieces that cannot be measured. [0:05:14] Alex addresses Milton Friedman's famous quote about responsibility and profits. [0:06:48] The role of big asset managers in directing investment towards more socially responsible causes. [0:08:56] Thoughts on the value of divestment as a means to effect social change. [0:11:34] How much impact are typical ESG funds having currently? [0:15:05] The subjective discussion around sustainability and Alex's definition of what makes a company sustainable. [0:17:06] The inconvenient truth about sustainable funds' performance against the market. [0:20:56] Alex's research into the relationship between stock returns and employee satisfaction. [0:22:23] How to take a quantitative approach to employee satisfaction as an investor. [0:29:16] The practical application of information about happy workplaces for investors. [0:32:51] Alex's input on the problems associated with executive pay. [0:35:18] Counter-arguments to some of Alex's unpopular opinions and positions. [0:39:52] Tackling the tricky subject of board diversity at organizations. [0:41:27] Finding trustworthy evidence in the contemporary climate and combatting the post-truth era. [0:46:22] Us
S2 E191 · Thu, March 10, 2022
Emerging Markets: Diversifying Asset or a Reverse Lottery?
There seem to be many differing opinions out there about investing in emerging markets, and unfortunately, many of these are inaccurate. This is mostly due to the fact that emerging markets and your involvement in them, perform in ways that are somewhat counterintuitive. In today's episode, we tackle this tricky subject from a number of angles and try to give all of our listeners a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of using emerging markets within your portfolio, without falling prey to some common traps. To kick off the episode we talk about some financial news and the interesting recent book Making Numbers Count, before diving into the main course of the show. Listeners can expect to come away with some new insight into the history of emerging markets theory, realistic emerging markets returns, the appropriate amount of caution to exercise when investing in them, and more. Towards the tail end of the show, we are joined by our friend Morgan Housel, author of the prominent new book, The Psychology of Money, and we briefly discuss reading habits and how implementing a few small practices for learning can have an extraordinary impact on ones' life. Don't miss out on this great show. Key Points From This Episode: Rounding up some interesting recent content; TV shows, articles, and more. [0:01:16] This week's book review of about the powerful, Making Numbers Count . [0:07:23] Standout data points; Twitter's valuation, Deere Corp, and more. [0:13:14] A few pieces of the most interesting financial news from the last week. [0:16:18] The roots of the idea of emerging markets and its appearance in the 1980s. [0:20:05] Unpacking the findings on emerging markets and the best examples of the thesis. [0:21:20] What to expect with regards to returns from emerging markets. [0:26:37] Reasons for the benefits of diversifying a portfolio using emerging markets. [0:29:26] The importance of market integration segmentation and how this relates to emerging markets. [0:33:46] Portfolio skewness and how assets contribute to this. [0:35:18] Reasons for surprising yields with emerging markets for Canadian investors. [0:41:26] The cautious place that emerging markets deserve in a balanced portfolio. [0:47:20] The dangers of mixing and matching products relating to emerging markets. [0:49:45] Morgan's opinion on how reading can take us beyond our mundane bubble. [0:51:38] The approach that Morgan uses to gain and learn the most from what he reads. [0:52:47] Decisions on what to start readi
S2 E190 · Thu, March 03, 2022
Leonard Mlodinow: Emotions are Rational
It is commonly believed that rational thought is threatened by emotion, but contemporary understandings of the brain paint a more complicated picture. Today’s guest is Leonard Mlodinow and he joins us to talk about why. As a mathematician and theoretical physicist, Leonard might seem like an odd fit for this topic at first glance. However, when Leonard’s desire to discover the secrets of the universe spilled over into a curiosity about the brain, he started publishing books on the subject, his most recent being Emotional: How Feelings Shape Our Thinking. In today’s show, Leonard argues that the brain is essentially an information processing organ and that emotions play an integral role in feeding it data. As such, there is no way to separate emotions from thinking, and in fact, they often aid the decision-making process, as well as play a vital role in motivating us. However, our emotions evolved in a different world to the one we live in today, meaning that there are situations where a certain emotion might be influencing a decision in a way we don’t want, and this is where the cultivation of emotional intelligence becomes a beneficial practice. So for all of this, as well as perspectives on its ramifications for sensible investing, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: Introducing Leonard Mlodinow and his book, Emotional: How Feelings Shape Our Thinking. [0:00:19] The role of emotions in rational decision-making. [0:01:04] How the brain processes data and the role of emotions in this process . [0:04:09] Whether emotions are detrimental to decision making. [0:06:50] The situations our emotions evolved in and how our world has changed. [0:09:05] Whether it is wise or possible to separate emotions from rational thinking. [0:11:50] New findings from affective neuroscience about emotion. [0:13:36] Why simplistic categorizations of emotions and beliefs that they are associated with certain organs are wrong. [0:14:51] What ‘core affect’ is, its relationship to emotion, and how it affects decision making. [0:18:36] How to gauge when to make certain kinds of decisions. [0:22:12] What Leonard’s findings on emotion mean for evaluating risk tolerance in investment. [0:24:00] What role emotions play in theoretical physics and mathematics. [0:26:28] Wanting, liking, and determination: Where the feeling of motivation comes from. [0:30:45] How to develop emotional intelligence by cultivating awareness of how emotions affect decision-making. [0:34:21] Whether some emotions are more influential than others. <stron
Bonus · Mon, February 28, 2022
BONUS: Stocks, Bonds, and War
In this special episode, we review the relationship between war and financial markets. War is a tragedy. We are not minimizing the humanitarian tragedy of what is happening in Ukraine by focusing on the potential impact on financial markets. But we are offering a Rational Reminder for investors in a stressful time. Wars and financial markets have coexisted, and often been intertwined, for hundreds of years. Countries that have lost major wars have had their financial markets decimated, while global markets have been relatively resilient, even to major conflicts. In addition to the historical perspective, we offer some timeless lessons for investors to remember in times of stress.
S2 E189 · Thu, February 24, 2022
Regret (and How to Read More w/ Neil Pasricha)
Today’s guest is Neil Pasricha and he joins us to discuss how to read more. Before our time with Neil, Ben and Cameron lead the discussion, working through a range of topics including how to grasp large numbers, the value of ‘humbitious’ leadership, and how to get a better understanding of regret. When Neil jumps into the conversation, he starts by making an argument for reading, telling us how it is the best form of compressed knowledge we have, and that readers effectively live a new life each time they read a book. We hear about how Neil got back into reading later in his life and the role it has played in shaping so many of his most significant projects over the last few years. He answers some common objections that people have to reading, busting the myth that there is no time for reading or that only certain kinds of books are worth it. In light of our current reading challenge, we hear Neil’s views on whether making a public commitment is an effective approach to reading more. Wrapping up, Neil makes a great point about the importance of finding the right books for your personality and gives some helpful tips for how to do so. Key Points From This Episode: Updates: things to watch, our reading challenge, top books, and more. [0:00:19] How Cameron stumbled upon today’s guest, Neil Pasricha. [0:02:34] Finding ways to grasp big numbers in Making Numbers Count. [0:04:27] Discussing the value of humble but ambitious leaders in [0:10:01] This week’s news: Wealth Front is contesting the value premium. [0:15:42] The importance of understanding regret for making financial decisions. [0:25:00] The main types of regret and things that people feel this emotion about. [0:31:58] How to prevent future regret and manage current regret. [0:38:10] Cameron’s quasi-obsession with enabling teams as they scale. [0:45:00] The tool Cameron and Ben are going to build to survey financial goals. [0:47:45] Neil Pasricha joins us to talk about how to read more. [0:50:05] Access to compressed knowledge and why reading is so important. [0:50:23] Whether Neil’s advice for how to read more has changed as the world has. [0:51:53] Why Neil started reading more and how that morphed into his podcast. [0:52:14] Objections to people’s arguments for why they don’t read more. [0:54:20] Whether it is important to have a physical space dedicated to reading. [0:56:57] Perspectives on making a public commitment to reading more. [0:58:24] How Neil finds new books to read. [0:5
S2 E188 · Thu, February 17, 2022
Ayelet Fishbach: The Science of Motivation
Goal-setting has been a divisive subject of discussion for us here on the Rational Reminder Podcast, and today we dive a bit deeper into the topic with the help of the amazing Ayelet Fishbach, author of the recent book Get It Done. Ayelet is an expert in motivation and a Professor of Behavioral Science and Marketing at the Chicago Booth School of Business. Her focus in her work is researching social psychology, management and consumer behaviour, and having her on the show to share some of this amazing insight is a real honour! In our conversation, we cover many sides of the goal-setting process, exploring the vast array of research that Ayelet has done and has examined. We talk about the difference between intrinsic and extrinsic goals, the outcomes of tracking progress, what makes an effective goal, and what is meant by a 'goal-system'. Ayelet also shares how this research can inform tasks such as retirement planning, and the work of financial advisors. So for this and a whole lot more that is bound to be illuminating, fascinating, and potentially life-altering, be sure to join us on the show. Key Points From This Episode: Using goal-setting to address our inability to predict elements of the future. [0:03:50] Differentiating between intrinsic and extrinsic goals. [0:05:00] Ayelet lists some examples of effective goals and their qualities. [0:06:37] The dangers of avoidance and unhealthy goals and how to recognize these. [0:10:48] Exploring the parts of human psychology that push us to always want more. [0:14:46] How quantifiable, self-set targets for goals can aid the process of achieving them. [0:17:18] Weighing the benefits of creating incentives associated with the goals you set. [0:21:45] The roots of intrinsic motivation and how to foster more of these. [0:25:13] Making the pursuit of a goal enjoyable and why this is so important. [0:29:21] How these findings on goal-setting relate to long-term retirement planning. [0:32:10] Ways for financial advisors to make certain processes and tasks more enjoyable for their clients. [0:33:36] The impact of tracking and monitoring progress towards a goal. [0:35:03] Learning from failure and why this can be an unreliable strategy for achievement. [0:39:36] Ayelet describes a goal system and its most important components. [0:43:06] Writing out goal systems and an explanation of the chart that is included in Get It Done . [0:46:17] Prioritization and how to choose between conflicting goals. [0:48:02] Strategies for keeping
S2 E187 · Thu, February 10, 2022
How to Set Financial Goals
Identifying investment goals is a critical step in developing a sound financial plan that helps investors reach their objectives. Studies have shown that using a goals-based framework in financial planning can lead to an increase in wealth for investors and has the potential to strengthen planner-client relationships; but what goals should you be setting? And why is it often so difficult to make these kinds of decisions? In today’s episode, Benjamin dives into some of the research he is conducting about goals-based financial planning for the paper he is writing on the topic, and we discuss why defining and prioritizing goals in the financial planning process is so important (and why it can be so challenging), as well as some practical guidelines to help you set effective goals. Additionally, you’ll learn all about our 22 in 22 Reading Challenge, which we officially launch today with the help of Heather Reisman, book lover, entrepreneur, and CEO of Indigo, Canada’s largest books, gift, and toy retailer. Heather is also the co-creator of the Kobo reading device, a former governor of the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the co-executive producer of the documentary, Fed Up . As you know, the objective of this podcast is to help improve listener’s lives by communicating ideas about sensible investing and financial decision making; and reading is a big part of that. Make sure to tune in to find out where to sign up for the challenge, take note of our book recommendations, and more! Key Points From This Episode: Learn more about the 22 in 22 Reading Challenge and where to sign up for it. [0:00:35] Introducing today’s special guest, Indigo CEO, Heather Reisman. [0:03:55] Some of the exciting guests you can expect to hear from on the show in future. [0:06:38] Our watchlist recommendations for you, including Ray Donovan: The Movie . [0:08:43] Cameron’s book recommendation: The Culture Code by Daniel Coyle. [0:10:05] Benjamin shares his views on Facebook's one-day $232 billion drop in value. [0:17:16] Why a great company is not necessarily a great investment. [0:22:32] Reflecting on the Talking Cents cards we did with Andrew Hallam in Episode 186. [0:23:45] Onto today’s main topics: how to make sound, goals-based financial decisions. [0:27:20] Why defining and prioritizing goals in the financial planning process is important. [0:30:33] Find out what goals you should set and why it’s difficult to make those decisions. [0:31:19] Practical guidelines to help you set goals from Bond, Carlson, and Keeney in 2010. [0:33:47] Hear some of the goals from the master list that Morningstar put together. [0:36:15] Learn what an effective goal looks like according to Ayelet Fishbach. [0:37:21] Whether you should use approach goals or avoidance goals. [0:39:42] How you can turn y
S2 E186 · Thu, February 03, 2022
Andrew Hallam: Balancing Money, Relationships, Health, and Purpose
One of our favorite things to do on this show is talk with the amazing authors of new books related to sensible investing. Today we do just that, welcoming back Andrew Hallam to the podcast to talk about his new book, Balance. In it, Andrew tackles the relationship between our finances and happiness, looking at the areas of life that need the most attention, and how we sometimes overlook important aspects of our wellbeing. This is Andrew's third book, and we previously hosted him on the show in Episode 99, so make sure to go back and catch up on that if you have not already listened to it. We have a fascinating chat with Andrew again today, getting to grips with some of the main findings in the book, with our guest unpacking his arguments about material purchases, spending on experiences, gratitude, and financial literacy. We also get to hear from him about the importance of staying light-hearted, and how he defines success and failure. Balance is such an eye-opening and illuminating piece of work, which we highly recommend our listeners check out, so tune in today to get a taste of what it's all about. Key Points From This Episode: Andrew's explanation of his definition of a successful life. [0:02:53] The questions to ask when prioritizing aspects of one's life. [0:04:35] Worthwhile material purchases and when spending money can truly have a positive impact. [0:06:12] Confusion about real estate and investments; Andrew clarifies the idea of buying property. [0:08:59] Andrew's 'desert island litmus test' for evaluating purchases. [0:12:18] The relationship between social media and our spending habits [0:14:03] Times that more liberal spending might be a good decision; Andrew's emphasis on experiences. [0:17:39] Thoughts on reaching a level of maturity regarding material wealth and satisfaction. [0:24:05] Andrew's reflections on his experiences of cancer in 2009. [0:27:28] The role of gratitude in a good life and increasing its presence in our practices. [0:31:37] How our network and social circles support and enrich our lives. [0:36:39] Index funds and financial literacy; Andrew weighs in on what these allow you to do. [0:37:26] Questions to ask when hiring an advisor; recommended products, financial stories, and more. [0:40:55] Andrew speaks about whether it is smart to have 100% equity. [0:45:59] The ghost story that Andrew uses to illustrate a point about risk assessment. [0:47:48] Deciding between simplified and complicated portfolios. [0:50:11] How parents ca
S2 E185 · Thu, January 27, 2022
Lighting your Money on Fire with Thematic ETFs
As we all know, not all investments are equally exciting, but on today’s show, we make the case that you should not put your money into an ETF just because it is trending. A thematic ETF is a fund that offers the opportunity to invest based on a particular theme, such as climate change or artificial intelligence. The concept behind investment themes is that they ostensibly offer investors the opportunity to participate in potentially disruptive trends with the idea of earning excess returns. The problem we find with these ETFs is that as the markets they are based on attract more attention and an influx of entrants, everybody’s per-share earnings get reduced. By the time a themed ETF becomes investable, it experiences a mean reversion of prices and media sentiment, in contrast to the attractive returns shown in its backtested index. This means that while thematic ETFs are good business for the ETF providers, they do not create value for investors on average. Toward the end of our show, we invite Wes Gray from Alpha Architect to talk about their change from index to active ETFs and more. Wrapping up, Wes along with Robin Taub join us for a lively round of Talking Sense. Tune in today!
S2 E184 · Thu, January 20, 2022
Robin Wigglesworth: The Story of Index Funds
Episode 184: Robin Wigglesworth: Unpacking and Understanding Trillions Episode 184: Show Notes. We have often spoken about the book Trillions on the show, and in today's episode, we are lucky enough to interview the author, Robin Wigglesworth. We get to speak to Robin about his book and some of its central and most interesting ideas, while touching on other subjects too. Listeners will definitely come away with some enriched perspective, and hearing Robin's thoughtful and articulate answers was an absolute pleasure for us. Our guest is also the Global Financial Correspondent for the Financial Times, with his contributions to the publication being well worth keeping up with. After distilling some of the history of index investing, Mac McQuown, Jack Bogle, and the building blocks of what we do here at the Rational Reminder, Robin is generous enough to also comment on crypto, tech disruption, private equity, ESG investing, and more. This episode ties in so well with previous conversations we have had and Robin's dedication to his craft as a financial writer is truly inspiring, join us to hear it all. Key Points From This Episode: Simple reasons for why index funds are the best option for investors. [0:02:40.1] Tracing the roots of the culture of stock picking. [0:05:52.7] The initial intellectual push that the idea of index fund received from Wells Fargo. [0:10:44.4] Touching on some of the important yet lesser-known characters in the history. [0:15:05.8] Robin unpacks the evolution that Jack Bogle went through in the 1960s. [0:17:40.1] Jack Bogle's real superpower and getting to grips with the essence of his philosophy. [0:22:33.4] The important relationship between Dimension and Vanguard. [0:25:42.7] Differentiating between factor investing and total mark indexing. [0:29:24.5] Robin's thoughts on where we are currently with an imaginary alpha. [0:32:46.3] Reasons for Jack Bogle's decision to avoid embracing ETFs early on. [0:35:28.7] Why Robin stands by the idea that markets are not efficient. [0:37:31.8] The impact of bond ETFs on the future of the market. [0:42:48.1] Concerns around proxy votes at bigger asset managers. [0:48:34.4] Some thoughts from Robin about ESG investing and its value. [0:52:17.7] The skepticism that Robin still holds about cryptocurrency and its disruptive characteristics. [0:57:45.2] The example of Albania that Robin has used in his book to illustrate a point about crypto. [1:02:47.6]</strong
S2 E183 · Thu, January 13, 2022
Market Efficiency Myths and Misconceptions
While there is certainly room for rigorous debate regarding market efficiency versus inefficiency, there are many who dismiss Eugene Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) as an incorrect model without understanding what the implications are or how to test it. In today’s episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we tackle some common market efficiency myths and misconceptions using Fama’s 1970 paper on EMH as well as supporting papers by Kenneth French, Lubos Pastor, José Scheinkman, and many others. You’ll also hear about behavioural finance, quantitative investing, human bias, and momentum as they relate to market efficiency before debunking some anecdotal misconceptions about EMH involving Warren Buffet and Renaissance Technologies. In addition to our fascinating main topic for today, you’ll get a glimpse into the four waves of a career in Cameron’s review of The Long Game by Dorie Clark and Benjamin shares some notes and corrections regarding the user cost model from Episode 180: Is Canada Really in a Housing Bubble? We also discuss housing as a depreciating asset, innovation stocks in deep value territory, and the size of innovation platforms relative to global market cap and what that means for investors, plus a whole lot more. Make sure not to miss this jam-packed episode for everything you need to know (and forget) about market efficiency! Key Points From This Episode: Kicking off with a book review of The Long Game by Dorie Clark. [0:10:53] Four waves of a career as per Dorie Clark: learning, creation, connecting, reaping. [0:13:04] Benjamin readdresses the user cost model from Episode 180 on the Canadian housing bubble (or lack thereof). [0:16:06] Insights from the user cost model regarding price sensitivity and rate changes. [0:20:13] Addressing common confusion regarding housing as a depreciating asset. [0:22:53] Speaking of bubbles: innovation stocks in deep value territory as per Cathie Wood. [0:26:08] ARK’s forecast for innovation platforms and the 30-40 percent compound annual rate of return their strategies could deliver in five years. [0:32:01] What deep value looks like according to ARK; prices to book, sale, and earnings. [0:33:30] Thoughts on the size of innovation platforms relative to global market cap. [0:34:47] Why growth in earnings per share, not market cap, results in growth in returns. [0:36:14] The impetus for today’s topic: Market Efficiency Myths and Misconceptions. [0:40:03] Eugene Fama’ himself on why the market isn’t expected to be perfectly efficient. [0:41:44] Testing market efficiency categorized by weak, semi-strong, and strong forms. [0:42:29] Why applied micro-economist and market design specialist Eric Budish believes the market is objectively inefficient at the millisecond horizon. [0:43:35] What EMH has to say about inf
S2 E182 · Thu, January 06, 2022
John 'Mac' McQuown: The Data Will Sort That Out
One of the pillars of our approach at The Rational Reminder Podcast and PWL Capital is the idea of index investing, a concept that is both fundamental and deeply embedded. Today we are very lucky to have John 'Mac' McQuown on the show, who was behind the creation of the first equity index fund. It is hard for us to overstate just how important this contribution has been to the world of finance and any fund managers and investors that share our philosophy. Mac's work back in the 1960s, his position at Wells Fargo, and his contribution to the founding of Dimensional Fund Advisors all speak for themselves, and we are extremely grateful to get some perspectives from this titan of the world of rational and data-driven investing. In our chat, we get to hear about some of the key points in Mac's career and the general arc of the rise of indexing and diversified investing, the key figures that he worked alongside, his thoughts on the future, and the importance of environmentalism in today's world. So, to hear it all from a hero and giant in the space, be sure to listen in with us today. Key Points From This Episode: Looking back at the role of data at the beginning of Mac's career. [0:03:00.2] Wall Street in the 1960s, and the amusing experiences Mac had early on. [0:04:20.6] Mac's initial findings when he started analyzing institutional portfolios. [0:07:44.5] Joining Wells Fargo and the team that Mac found himself on. [0:08:28.1] The strong support that Mac and the quantitative approach were given at Wells Fargo. [0:13:36.7] Early tracking of index funds and Mac's memories of the first index they tracked. [0:18:21.3] The initial institutional responses that Mac received to his work with data. [0:20:46.5] How Wells Fargo contributed to the first commercially available index fund. [0:22:24.6] Mac's connection to Jack Bogle and the results of their relationship. [0:27:18.2] The seeds of iShares; Mac traces the beginnings at Wells Fargo. [0:29:57.7] Perspectives on why people still have belief in active investing. [0:33:19.4] Mac's memories of working with David Booth during the founding of Dimensional. [0:34:41.8] Differentiating between Dimensional funds and index funds. [0:36:44.3] Weighing concerns about the growth of indexing and how this may affect pricing and governance. [0:39:52.5] Mac's environmentalist philosophy and his thoughts on practical steps against climate change. [0:42:10.6] How Mac defines success in his life and its relationship to increased curiosity. [0:45:00.2] <
S2 E181 · Thu, December 23, 2021
A Year in Review
We have reached the end of another year, our third while doing this podcast. We are spending this episode on our customary year-end review, and we will be pulling segments from some of the great interviews we hosted over the course of 2021. In doing so, we hope to create a bit of summary of the year and the biggest lessons we all learned together. The podcast has continued to grow beyond our wildest expectations and we are so grateful to be on this journey with our ever-increasing community and audience. We touch on many themes in this recap, moving from general ideas about life, goals, happiness, abundance, and purpose, to more financial subjects of money values, retirement, and crypto, and then into the deeper technical aspects of investment such as value premiums, factors, bonds, and much more. We have tried our best to focus on the segments that we found most enlightening and that changed our perspective, and have highlighted them with reflections and commentary. So to hear it all, join us today, and we'll see you next year, for more of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Key Points From This Episode: Looking at some of the amazing numbers around the growth of our community. [0:02:37.2] A few shoutouts to the wonderful people who make this podcast possible. [0:04:27.8] Bill Schultheis on how to find and fund a good life. [0:08:34.5] Hal Hershfield's thoughts on making better decisions with your future wellbeing in mind. [0:10:44.3] Ashley Whillans on the relationship between time-poverty and wellbeing, and increased leisure time. [0:13:39.7] Jennifer Risher weighs in on the importance of performing meaningful work. [0:17:24.5] Robin Taub's family money value's from her book, The Wisest Investment: [0:20:04.1] Jennifer Risher's approach to managing money values at home. [0:22:27.7] Katy Milkman applies the central idea from How to Change to saving money. [0:23:22.7] Johanna Peetz on how to use the idea of a future self to reach a goal. [0:26:38.6] Paul Merriman shares his experiences of the relationship between money and a good life. [0:28:27.7] Adriana Robertson's legal perspective on the rise of index funds. [0:33:48.4] Jay Ritter on the question of market efficiency. [0:36:41.8] Hersh Shefrin's emphatic and nuanced advice about how to act in relation to the market. [0:38:20.3] John Cochrane on the shifting relative value of stocks. [0:39:43.3] Rob Arnott shares his thoughts on the drawbacks of cap-weighted indexing. [0:42:31.5] Antonio Picca on the drawbacks of a factor-based investment strategy. [0:47:01.6] John Cochrane on making decisions around owning value stocks. [0:48:10.7] Campbell Harvey talks about conditions for concentrated portfolios. [0:52:20.2] Bill Schultheis on tilting for factors versus sticking with m
S2 E180 · Thu, December 16, 2021
Is Canada Really in a Housing Bubble?
There is no doubt that housing in Canada is expensive, but are we really in a bubble? Today on the show we explore the user cost equation and how it can help us answer this question. Before the main topic, we get warmed up with a behind-the-scenes look at Dell’s growth path in Cameron’s review of Play Nice But Win. From there we address Peter Lynch’s recent warning against passive investing as well as reiterate our position on the performance of small-cap value versus large-cap growth. Heading into our discussion on housing in Canada, we provide a working definition of a housing bubble and present the model used to work out user cost, addressing each factor in some detail. We discuss the risk premium for owning versus renting and highlight an interesting point on high price sensitivity during low-interest rates. The major takeaway after looking at Canada from within this framework is that user costs are in line with what they should be historically, and that saying we are in a housing bubble would be a little drastic! Key Points From This Episode: The effects of the plot of Sex and The City 2021on Peloton stocks. [0:00:20.1] A book review on Play Nice But Win which tells the story of Dell. [0:08:01.1] Mixed responses to the paper, ‘ Want to Be Happy? Hire a Financial Advisor’ . [0:13:01.1] Active fund performance and thoughts on Peter Lynch’s recent warning against passive investing. [0:17:14.1] Responding to listener disagreement with our research on the high returns of small-cap value ETFs. [0:22:46.1] The huge delta between the performance of ARC versus AVUV. [0:30:27.1] Using the concept of user cost to assess whether there is a housing bubble in Canada. [0:33:52.1] The different inputs into the model used to work out user cost. [0:38:22.1] The definition of a housing bubble and how the facts hold up. [0:39:36.1] The risk premium for owning instead of renting; why owning could be risky. [0:43:39.1] Perspectives on the chance that high prices could be driven by real estate investors. [0:47:03.1] An offsetting factor in the form of a reason for why owning is not risky. [0:49:06.1] If owning a home in Ontario is expensive from a user cost perspective. [0:52:45.1] Whether homeowners are willing to pay inflated prices for housing because they expect unrealistically high housing appreciation in the future. [0:53:54.1] Prices are sensitive to interest rates when interest rates are already low. [0:55:59.1] Tradeoffs, insurance, and taxes in this week’s iteration of Talking Sense.
S2 E179 · Thu, December 09, 2021
Professor Marco Di Maggio: Crypto, DeFi, and Monetary Policy
Of all of the possible disruptive uses of cryptocurrency and blockchain, decentralised finance (or DeFi) might be the one most likely to bring this technology to a wider audience; and challenge the established finance industry in the process. For this week’s episode on crypto-based decentralised finance, we welcome economist and faculty member in the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School, Professor Marco Di Maggio. Tuning in, you’ll learn everything you need to know about DeFi and cryptocurrency, from the most basic definitions to the potential macroeconomic and geopolitical implications of a decentralised reserve currency and the effects of decentralisation on monetary policy transmission. Tuning in, you’ll learn the definitions for DAOs, DEX, NFTs and more, and Marco elaborates on some of the reasons that decentralisation is seen as an improvement over central systems as well as some of the issues that it represents. Make sure not to miss this enlightening conversation with Professor Marco Di Maggio as he shares his powerful contrasting perspectives on this inherently libertarian technology. Key Points From This Episode: Marco defines cryptocurrency; simply put, it’s digital currency. [0:02:59] Find out what a DAO is; a community-led entity with no central authority. [0:03:58] How a DAO is different from a corporation in the way it values decentralisation. [0:05:56] Stablecoins as cryptocurrency pegged to fiat currency and backed by collateral. [0:07:07] Learn about decentralised exchanges or DEX, the bonding curve, and Uniswap. [0:09:28] Why decentralisation is seen as an improvement over centralisation; greater transparency and access requiring no counterparty. [0:12:32] When decentralisation is not a good solution given the lack of accountability. [0:14:40] Marco expands on some other issues with the technology, including its environmental impact, volatility, and regulatory uncertainty. [0:16:07] Understanding counterparty risk, returns, and interest rates in the DeFi space. [0:18:39] Why Marco considers blockchain and crypto DeFi a technological revolution. [0:21:41] How someone who owns a total stock market index fund, for example, can benefit from the potential economic gains of this revolution. [0:23:45] Bitcoin versus Ethereum and how Ethereum is used to develop DeFi apps. [0:26:06] Whether Marco predicts a winner-take-all outcome for blockchain technology. [0:28:23] Why rubber stamp regulation and clarity are important for the success of DeFi. [0:29:37] How to approach investing in the DeFi space, looking at risk, expo
S2 E178 · Thu, December 02, 2021
Are Inflation Concerns Inflated?
In today’s episode of The Rational Reminder, we tackle the subject of inflation in a twofold manner. Firstly, there are details around how people perceive inflation that often get overlooked, and secondly, these expectations have investment implications that are worth unpacking. Before diving into the main topic, we talk about Colin Bryar’s Working Backwards which tracks the role of failure and customer obsession in Amazon’s growth path. After getting into this week's news and listener question, we begin the first part of our session on inflation. Some of the main points we make here are that everybody experiences inflation differently, that perceptions of inflation are connected to experience, and that biased inflation estimates can explain household borrowing and investing behaviour. This leads us to part two of our discussion, where we unpack how expected inflation influences asset pricing and the role of unexpected inflation in the performance of stocks and bonds. We attempt to locate other asset classes that can act as inflation hedges, but find that with the tradeoffs and poor correlations involved, it makes the most sense to vouch for a properly diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds with exposure to multiple sources of expected return. So before you base too much of your decision-making on inflation, be sure to consider some of the points we make in today’s show. Key Points From This Episode: TV shows, listener feedback, Peloton’s stock price, and RRP updates. [0:00:19.2] Lessons from Amazon’s growth story in this week’s book, Working Backwards . [0:07:55.2] News: Vanguard’s ‘High-Conviction Active Funds’ and Wealthfront’s intention to sell. [0:14:23.1] Whether size premium is influenced by a reduction in IPOs and publicly traded companies. [0:17:36.2] Main topic: Overlooked aspects of inflation and their implications on investing. [0:23:46.2] Metrics from the CPI and how everybody experiences inflation differently. [0:26:36.2] How to work out your personal inflation rate and what Ben and Cameron’s are. [0:28:07.2] Inflation expectations are influenced by inflation experiences. [0:30:43.2] Biased inflation estimates can explain household borrowing/investing behaviour. [0:34:03.5] The implications of the fact that the CPI doesn’t account for substitution. [0:36:07.2] Debunking the assumption that those close to retirement are most exposed to inflation. [0:39:13.2] How financial assets are priced using discount rates and the effects of unexpected inflation on them. [0:43:36.2] The effects of high, low, and expected inflation on stocks and bonds. [0:45:41.2]</
S2 E177 · Thu, November 25, 2021
Dr. Anna Lembke: Dopamine & Decision-Making
The contemporary world is saturated with ways in which we can experience rewards that were historically much more difficult to access. Although this idea of a world filled with dopamine fixes is not new, it can be continually surprising just how extreme this reality has become. Here on the show today to talk about this issue and her most recent book, Dopamine Nation, is Dr. Anna Lembke, and we have a fascinating and important conversation in which she unpacks the human body and mind in relation to the world around us at present. One of the main points from this chat is the weakness of humans, and how unaware we can be of the way our brains compel us to engage in behaviours and seek pleasure. We get into some strategies and solutions for healthier ways to exist, talking about mindfulness, awareness, and dopamine fasting, in the face of accelerating tech and overabundance. Dr. Lembke gives us a great introduction to dopamine and how it functions in our bodies, unpacks the four properties of addictive substances and activities, the different ways to frame and understand addiction, and shares some realistic ideas about moderation. So to hear all this and much more, tune in to this great episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Key Points From This Episode: An introduction to dopamine and its functions in the human body. [0:03:03.2] The human brain and the current overabundance of addictive experiences and substances. [0:05:36.1] Contemporary increasing in different types of addiction. [0:08:13.8] Considering the inherently negative connotation of the word 'addiction'. [0:11:44.4] The reasons that make gambling so addictive to the human mind. [0:14:12.7] Applying what we know about addiction and gambling to speculation and the stock market. [0:18:03.2] Why working also falls into the category of addictive behaviours. [0:21:46.8] Looking at the addictive nature of spending money and shopping. [0:24:01.5] A shocking story about water addiction from Dr. Lembke's practice. [0:25:12.1] Thoughts on recognizing addiction and possible ways to stop the behaviours. [0:26:22.2] Using in moderation; Dr. Lembke comments on the realities of this idea. [0:29:32.7] Long-term decision making versus a dopamine-laden environment; the battle of our time. [0:31:00.4] Understanding hormesis, seeking pleasure through pain, and embracing volatility in a portfolio. [0:34:54.6] The impacts of increased leisure time and the question of what we need. [0:38:47.6] Lembke's advice around retirement and the dangers of dopamine deficit states. [0:42:43.3]</stro
S2 E176 · Thu, November 18, 2021
Is the Value Premium Smaller Than We Thought? Featuring Mathias Hasler
Today we have a guest join us on one of our 'us episodes', and we are very lucky to welcome Mathias Hasler to take part in the last section of today's podcast. Mathias is a Visiting Assistant Professor of Finance at Boston College, and his primary research focuses are empirical asset pricing, market efficiency, value investing, and corrections for data mining. In our chat with him today, we zoom in on a specific paper of his and its proposition about 'the six decisions' and their alternatives. Before we dive in with Mathias, we spend a little time with our usual round-up; looking at a new book by Hubert Joly, and fielding a very interesting listener question about value and investing in relation to green investments. Also, make sure to stay tuned for some thought-provoking Talking Sense cards with Mathias at the tail end of today's podcast. Key Points From This Episode: This week's book review for The Heart of Business and a look at some of its main ideas. [0:05:12.4] A quick recap of some fundamental information regarding inflation hedging. [0:09:45.1] A listener question about value and ESG investing, and the relationship between factors and sectors. [0:13:40.4] Unpacking the six decisions that Mathias outlines in his recent paper. [0:34:42.8] The process that Mathias went through testing his alternatives to the six decisions. [0:40:18.3] Differences between conditional and unconditional value premiums estimates. [0:43:39.5] The implications of Mathias' findings for investors pursuing value. [0:47:08.2] A round of Talking Sense cards with Mathias relating to saving and spending, job outcomes, and more. [0:49:20.1]
S2 E175 · Thu, November 11, 2021
Robin Taub: The Wisest Investment: Teaching Kids About Money
Today we are tackling the vitally important subject of financial literacy from the standpoint of parents wanting to educate their children. We have a true expert on the show today to help us with this discussion, and we cannot wait to share this highly actionable and impactful conversation with our audience. Robin Taub is a former CPA turned author, and her book, The Wisest Investment, approaches the need to educate children from an early age, and the best strategies that parents can use for this task. Robin previously worked at Citibank in derivatives marketing and brings the high-level expertise of accounting to her book and this episode of the podcast. We strongly support her perspective on financial education and believe the framework she discusses here and shares in her book is well worth any parent's time. In our conversation, we cover all the important bases; financial values, summer jobs, investment apps, human capital, and everything in between, so make sure to listen with us to hear it all. Key Points From This Episode: Unpacking Robin's beliefs about the importance of financial education in the family. [0:02:55.2] Financial education in the Canadian schooling system; Robin weighs in on its success. [0:04:08.6] The assessment that parents can make about being role models to their children. [0:06:53.1] The communication of values through the process of teaching and learning. [0:09:01.8] Ideas for the appropriate time to start teaching kids about money. [0:11:40.5] Using teachable moments to begin the conversation about money. [0:14:35.3] Thoughts about allowances and best practices for parents. [0:18:09.7] The evolution of money conversations as children grow older; increasing sophistication over the years. [0:23:46.9] Benefits and considerations when introducing the concept of working for money. [0:27:30.3] How social media can impact young people's spending, and how to mitigate these effects. [0:31:26.2] Robin weighs in on the question of cellphones and when children should get one. [0:38:42.6] Increasing financial responsibilities as children grow older, and beginning the conversation about investments. [0:40:37.3] The impact of investment apps and how to minimize the damage they can do. [0:45:21.1] Teaching children about philanthropy and the importance of sharing. [0:47:04.6] Weighing up the idea of getting a financial advisor involved in your child's life. [0:49:27.3] The concept of human capital and how to approach it in your family. [0:50:51.1] Robin's thoughts on
S2 E174 · Thu, November 04, 2021
The "Good Company is a Good Investment" Fallacy
It sounds reasonable to say that investing in the most popular companies would produce the best returns, but this is just not how asset pricing works. Today on the show, we unpack the ‘good company is a good investment’ fallacy. Before diving into the main topic, we kick off our discussion on the subject of index funds with Robert Wigglesworth’s Trillions. From there, we share some updates about custom indexing and home buying in Canada, along with the immense valuation of Tesla as well as Elon Musk’s net worth. This acts as a great segue into the focus of today’s show: a so-called good company has high historical returns, strong earnings growth, strong forecasted earnings growth, and high prices. But just because the good companies have done well historically, this does not mean they will continue to be a good investment. In fact, there is a premium that says that higher-priced stocks earn lower returns than lower-priced stocks and value stocks. We unpack several papers that explore the concept that it is the lesser-known companies that tend to have better returns. We also get into how growth extrapolation, the skewness effect, and the big market delusion plays into the good company is a good investment fallacy. Our discussion concludes with the idea that investors are better off paying attention to expected returns rather than falling victim to extrapolation errors. Tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: Introductory comments: modifications to the show, listener feedback, and more. [0:00:30.2] Book review of the week: Trillions by Robert Wigglesworth. [0:08:28.3] News updates: custom indexing, Tesla valuation, homebuyer gifts, and more. [0:12:23.2] Introducing today’s topic: the ‘good company is a good investment’ fallacy. [0:19:30:9] Investing in good companies is irrational because of how asset pricing works. [0:20:44.7] The threat that crypto and decentralized applications pose to good companies. [0:21:50.5] Higher-priced stocks earn lower returns than lower-priced and value stocks. [0:24:40.3] Findings from papers exploring glamorous stocks and investor bias. [0:27:21.2] The problem of extrapolating growth too far into the future. [0:34:07.1] Behaviour patterns of lottery-like stocks with high expected skewness. [0:37:17.4] Declining prices and the big market delusion. [0:39:51.1] The high prices and low expected returns of the NIFTY 50 companies. [0:44:05.2] What the Fama French Five-Factor Model has to say about how assets are priced. [0:45:30.2] Talking Cents: Questions about the price we pay for riches. [0:46:50.2]</
S2 E173 · Thu, October 28, 2021
Antonio Picca: From Index Investing to Factor Investing at Vanguard
In our conversation this week, we take a deep dive into factor investing. We are joined by the formidable Antonio Picca, Head of Factor Strategies at Vanguard, to help us navigate this complicated topic. Antonio is one of the largest asset managers in the world, with over seven trillion dollars under management. Among his credentials is a Master's in Finance and Economics from the London School of Economics, as well as a Doctorate in Finance and Economics from Chicago, where he was also a teaching assistant with Gene Fama. During our discussion, we cover a broad series of questions on factor investing, while also venturing into deeply technical territory. We examine how one might make the transition to factor investing after gaining confidence in passive investing and unpack important questions around factor investing and risk. Another fascinating topic we cover is how factor investing resembles active investing, including some crucial distinctions. Next, we take a look at some of the negative connotations of active investing and investigate why those issues may not apply to factor investing. Antonio goes on to explain why factor investing is a natural extension of a broad equity market investing and illustrates how it aligns with Vanguard’s philosophy, which is a belief in low-cost, long-term focus, and broad diversification. You won’t want to miss this excellent opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of factor investing from one of the leading experts in the field. Tune in today to hear it all! Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s guest Antonio Picca, Head of Factor Strategies at Vanguard. [00:00:17] How Antonio would explain factor investing to an existing Vanguard client who's already sold on the idea of low-cost, cap-weighted index investing. [00:03:16] Why clients need to be educated on factor investing, and why factor investing is a form of active investing. [00:04:31] The benefits of targeting other factors in addition to the market risk factor. [00:05:20] Some of the drawbacks to a strategy that targets other factors in addition to the market risk factor. [00:06:41] How Vanguard helps clients determine whether factor investing is the correct course of action for them. [00:08:19] The role that cap-weighted investing plays in the structure of factor products when capital forms the core of your investing, and factor portfolios are secondary. [00:09:35] How investors should think about sizing their factor position, relative to their market cap-weighted position. [00:11:12] How they decide which factors to target in Vanguard's product lineup. [00:12:37] Vanguard’s approach to capacity when considering factors. [00:15:03] How Vanguard decided to target momentum as a standalone factor. [00:16:24] More on the liquidity factor and how Vanguard is targeting it. [00:17:40] A breakdown
S2 E172 · Thu, October 21, 2021
Is the debate over renting vs. buying a home really over? Featuring Rob Carrick
Today we welcome Rob Carrick back to the show to talk about a range of interesting topics, focusing on the Canadian housing market and some of the recent developments from the banking and investment space. Rob has such a balanced and measured approach, qualities that are visible in his long-standing work at The Globe and Mail. We start today's episode with some fun recommendations of books and TV content, before diving into the meat of our conversation. Rob weighs in on the range of perspectives on whether to rent or buy, offering the assurance that renting is a completely acceptable way to manage your needs and means. He also comments on the utility of robo-advisors, the impacts of the recent banking regulations, and shares his surprise at which of his articles have proved most popular. We always feel like we should have Rob on the show more often, and this episode is such a good argument for that very idea. So, to hear all Rob has to say, be sure to join us today. Key Points From This Episode: This week's book and TV recommendations; Impeachment , Capital , Trillions, and more. [0:00:39.2] A call for applicants here at PWL Capital, and some recent reviews for the show. [0:07:17.7] Looking at an excerpt from Azeem Azhar's book, The Exponential Age . [0:11:45.4] A recent study comparing renting and buying in Canada. [0:18:18.6] Rob's observations on the new banking rules in Canada and what they mean for the advisor community. [0:29:27.2] Thoughts on trends in the banking space and the roles of financial professionals. [0:36:07.1] Canada's adoption of indexing: measuring the speed of changes in the country. [0:38:38.7] The role of robo-advisors and why Rob believes strongly in their value. [0:41:48.5] Rob weighs in on the debate of buying versus renting property. [0:44:39.6] Generational flows of money from boomer parents to millennial and Gen Y children. [0:50:52.3] Rob's message to Canadians feeling like they are stuck renting. [0:54:24.1] Some of Rob's most popular articles from over the years. [0:55:20.7] Lessons from Sweden's housing market and considering Canada's possible future. [0:59:03.6] A round of Talking Sense cards with Rob dealing with most prized possessions, lending, and happiness. [1:02:26.3] Assessing some of Robert Kyosaki's recent comments on a looming crash. [1:08:29.1] The present is exciting in finance; why Rob is enjoying the ride. [1:14:22.5]
S2 E171 · Thu, October 14, 2021
Campbell R. Harvey: The Past and Future of Finance
For this week’s episode (our longest to date), we get together with the legendary Professor Campbell R. Harvey and take a deep dive into a diverse range of topics that draw on his incredible breadth of knowledge and extensive research. Campbell is the Professor of International Business at Duke University and is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. In 2016 he served as the President of the American Finance Association, and from 2006 to 2012 he occupied the incredibly demanding role of Editor for the Journal of Finance. One of his earliest achievements was identifying the inverted yield curve’s ability to predict a recession, a highly regarded metric that is near-ubiquitous in its implementation. For the first half of our conversation, we focus on his research in areas like skewness and emerging economies. We cover specific topics like the factor zoo, why it’s problematic, and how Campbell, along with his student Yan Lui, found through their research that approximately half of the published empirical research in finance at the time was, in fact, false. We also unpack his most downloaded paper entitled The Golden Dilemma and get into the intricacies of why gold is an unreliable inflation hedge. For the latter half of our conversation, we hear about Campbell’s latest book DeFi and the Future of Finance along with his most recent research. Discover how Campbell first became interested in the topic several years ago and decided to put together a course for his students. We also delve into the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and how we can expect it to shape global finance, trading, and the future of the internet. Join us today for this essential episode on everything from the pitfalls of academia, to emerging markets, to Bitcoin, and much more! Key Points From This Episode: Introducing this week’s guest Professor Campbell Harvey. [00:02:46] How Campbell’s research brought him to Chicago's Ph.D. program. [00:03:55] How Campbell identified that an inverted yield curve had preceded the past four recessions and could be a reliable economic predictor. [00:07:03] Hear about Campbell’s research on skewness, as opposed to simply mean and variance, which is often the focus of portfolio theory. [00:11:40] Why it’s surprising that skewness is still largely disregarded in favor of mean and variance. [00:16:42] Why mean and variance are insufficient for measuring risk when comparing a concentrated portfolio with a more diversified portfolio. [00:20:45] Some of the special considerations that Campbell prioritizes when assessing emerging markets in context and managing an overall portfolio.[00:22:04] Observations on the cost of capital being higher before integration and liberalization. [00:25:11] The implications that Campbell’s research on emerging markets has on asset allocation. [00:26:51]
S2 E170 · Thu, October 07, 2021
Are Homeowners Happier than Renters?
For decades, owning a home has been seen as a hallmark of the ‘American dream’ and a major life milestone. While we take it for granted that home ownership is good, we make the argument in today’s episode that, from the perspective of subjective well-being, owning a home isn’t necessarily the key to happiness. This conversation covers the non-financial aspects of homeownership and why owning a home isn’t necessarily superior to renting one. This is supported by data from a number of different studies that describe the relationship between experienced happiness and life evaluation, and how the decision to buy or rent relates to effective forecasting, for example. Benjamin unpacks concepts like focalism, hedonic adaptation, and buyer's remorse, as well as social comparison and happiness when it comes to material purchases like homes. He concludes with the following words of wisdom: buying a house will not make you happy, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad decision. During the course of today’s episode, we also touch on Shane Parrish’s The Great Mental Models Volume 3: Systems and Mathematics , how individuals engage in panic selling according to the recent MIT study, ‘When Do Investors Freak Out?’, and some of the listener discussion points that arose from our in-depth conversation with John Cochrane in Episode 169. Tune in today for all this, plus so much more! Key Points From This Episode: Find out why you should listen to Tim Ferriss’ interview with Micheal Dell. [0:07:06] Today’s recommended book: The Great Mental Models Volume 3 by Shane Parrish. [0:08:05] Unpacking how individuals engage in panic selling according to the MIT study, ‘When Do Investors Freak Out?’ [0:11:10] We weigh in on three top Canadian banks halting sales of third-party mutual funds in preparation for Know Your Product (KYP) rule reform. [0:13:53] Ben highlights some listener discussion points following the John Cochrane episode. [0:16:34] Learn how predictable returns result from unpredictable cashflows in the long run. [0:18:23] What this means for long-term investors: focus on cashflow payoffs, not returns. [0:18:59] Why stocks are less risky for long-term investors if returns are predictable, which introduces horizon effects and impacts portfolio theory. [0:20:49] Key takeaways: outside income streams as additional asset classes, value versus growth, pure wealth investors versus labor market investors. [0:21:42] Introducing Ben’s topic for this week: does owning a home make you happy? [0:28:15] Some perceptions about the correlation between homeownership and happiness. [0:29:53] Why the non-financial aspects of renting might make it superior to home ownership. [0:31:50] Expanding on the 2011 paper, ‘The American Dream or the American Delusion?’ [0:32:10] Conclusions from the 2019 paper, ‘Homeownersh
S2 E169 · Thu, September 30, 2021
John Cochrane: Modern Modern Portfolio Theory
Today's conversation is an extremely enlightened and highly detailed one, that you may want to return to, in order to accrue all of its value. We host John Cochrane, an economist specializing in financial economics and macroeconomics. John has a popular blog and podcast called The Grumpy Economist and also hosts the GoodFellows Podcast. He is a Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior fellow at Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and was a Professor at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. In this fascinating chat, John shares so much of his expertise, going in-depth on the subjects that we and our audience are constantly exploring and excited about. We discuss long-horizon stocks, market inefficiency and return predictability, classic portfolio theory, risk-less assets, and performance evaluation. John also shares his perspectives on the future of centralized finances, digital and cryptocurrencies, and where the business of financial advice is headed. So for all this and more from a leader in his field, be sure to join us for this great episode of the Rational Reminder. Key Points From This Episode: Breaking down the basics of why stock prices go up and looking at the market as a whole. [0:02:05.8] The information contained in valuation ratios about long-horizon stock returns. [0:04:25.3] Market inefficiency and return predictability; unpacking the opinions on the correlation. [0:07:17.8] What the research on available information and market timing tells us about predictability. [0:12:59.6] Under-appreciating risk and asking important questions about dividend growth in the future. [0:18:46.5] The huge impact that predictability can have on classic portfolio theory. [0:22:36.2] Volatility aversion and communicating important concepts across divides. [0:28:11.7] John explains the risk-less asset for the long-term investor. [0:30:12.6] Using the example of bonds to get to grips with performance evaluation. [0:36:26.8] Unpacking the roots of wealth inequality and the best perspectives for understanding it. [0:40:30.4] Misguided thoughts about the market and the usefulness of keeping general equilibrium in mind. [0:44:14.1] Market portfolios and the zero-sum game; hedging state variable risk. [0:52:40.5] Decisions about the ability to bear the value risk premium and allocation. [0:58:10.7] John's thoughts on the future of financial advice. [1:01:27.8] Describing the fiscal theory of the price level and its predictions about inflation. [1:06:03.6] <li
S2 E168 · Thu, September 23, 2021
A Replication Crisis and a Housing Crisis
Today we have a somewhat unique episode for all of our listeners, rounding up the news and information from the world of finance and investment before we welcome Ben Rabidoux back to the show. Ben was a guest on Episode 96, which aired early during the pandemic last year, and we are so happy to have him here for another appearance, to touch in with his real estate expertise, and his thoughts on the current issues facing the Canadian housing market. Ben is the Founder of Edge Realty Analytics and North Cove Advisors and is essentially a real estate analyst, which means he has many clients that are institutional investors and fund managers, who he helps with the real estate side of their portfolios. In this conversation, Ben gives us loads of insight into the current landscape of Canadian real estate, the roots of the contemporary conditions, and what the data can teach us about the high prices that are so prevalent at present. We also hear from Ben about some potential policy solutions, and how the pandemic has affected the rental market. So for all this and a whole lot more in today's episode, be sure to join us on the Rational Reminder Podcast. Key Points From This Episode: Some of the best media we have encountered recently; podcasts, documentaries, and more. [0:02:01.3] News from the community and why we had to ban a user for the first time. [0:03:46.1] Quick book reviews of the illuminating DeFi and the Future of Finance and Blockchain Bubble or Revolution . [0:07:05.8] Changes in the world of finance and investment; Walgreens' new bank account and beyond. [0:12:22.3] Today's listener question dealing with research-based investment decisions and frequently cited papers. [0:15:27.5] Recent research from Robert Novy-Marx and Fama and French on US value premiums and factors that matter. [0:22:01.3] How to view the possibility of a replication crisis in finance. [0:31:10.8] Findings on US exceptionalism and the relationship between national economic growth and returns. [0:33:49.6] Market crashes and the correlations between different countries. [0:37:12.6] Reflecting on Ben's appearance on the podcast during the early weeks of the pandemic. [0:39:38.3] The last few decades of the 20th century and how that explains the current climate. [0:43:50.2] The chronic issue of under-supply of housing from the industry. [0:45:30.1] Housing policies that would support the current rates of population growth. [0:48:20.4] Examples and thoughts on the recent house price increases. [0:48:48.6] Statistics of homes bought by investors
S2 E167 · Thu, September 16, 2021
Professor Hersh Shefrin: Fear, Hope, and the Psychology of Investing
In many episodes of this podcast we refer to the psychological component of investing, and today we are very happy to host a global authority on the subject and share an absolute masterclass about behavioural psychology as it relates to our finances and the decisions we make. We welcome Professor Hersh Shefrin to the show, who is the author of many books including the seminal Beyond Greed and Fear, which he wrote in the last 1990s, and still holds much value and relevance in today's climate. Professor Shefrin is kind enough to share some reflections on how his understanding of the themes discussed in the book has evolved since those days and unpacks some great pieces from the book for listeners to digest. We get into some specific and technical questions about investing, looking at pursuing the alpha, momentum, and index funds, before our guest also weighs in with some broader, more philosophical responses to our queries. The conversation covers the psychological needs of investors, expected returns, and of course biases. Listeners can expect to come away with a clearer and more detailed picture of ideas we often reference, so make sure to join us for this incredible exploration with Hersh. Key Points From This Episode: The key message about market psychology from Beyond Greed and Fear . [0:03:23.1] Beyond Greed and Fear 's three themes: heuristic-driven bias, framing effects, and inefficient markets. [0:04:39.3] Reflecting on these themes in a modern context and how our understanding has been refined. [0:12:53.6] Considering index funds in light of market efficiency frameworks. [0:21:08.3] Assessing one's ability to pursue the alpha and Professor Shefrin's advice to this end. [0:27:14.1] Possible reasons for large numbers of active money managers at institutions. [0:30:20.6] Understanding risk-based asset pricing models and expectations of higher returns when investing in riskier stocks. [0:34:41.8] The impact of behaviour-based versus risk-based explanations for investors. [0:40:00.2] Utilizing momentum in a portfolio: Professor Shefrin's explanation of this interesting phenomenon. [0:41:58.6] Comparing the current trading landscape with the advent of online trading in the '90s. [0:46:25.5] The addictive potential of stock trading; what we know about the neuroscience. [0:49:02.3] Unpacking the idea of growth opportunities bias and implicit assumptions about averages. [0:52:14.4] Weighing the relevance of the mean-variance framework to individual investors. [0:57:48.2] ' Carrying a psychological call option'; why Pro
S2 E166 · Thu, September 09, 2021
Lessons from 100+ Years of Global Stock Returns
In this week’s episode, Cameron and Benjamin share what’s on their mind and delve into listener questions on subjects ranging from the CAPE ratio to how to go about changing someone’s mind. Tuning in you’ll get a preview of some of the formidable guests featured on future episodes, like John Cochrane and Hersh Shefrin. We also cover book recommendations and unpack the concept of libertarian paternalism from the highly influential best-seller, Nudge: The Final Edition by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, and how it can be a force for good. We cover various facets of passive investing and index funds including how, despite its proven effectiveness, many people continue to take a dim view of it. Learn why certain personality types may be more drawn to active investing and why. We also share tips for reasoning with skeptics, including some useful questions to ask when things get heated. Next, we take an in-depth look at index funds and global returns over the last century based on the research of Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton and their book Triumph of the Optimists. We also answer questions from our Talking Cents Cards and take a look at the best bad advice from the previous week. This episode is packed with fascinating anecdotes and excellent recommendations that you won’t want to miss! Tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: We reflect on some of the reviews and feedback we’ve received over the past week. [0:03:00.7] An overview of the guests that listeners can look forward to on future episodes. [0:06:15.8] Talking Cents Cards and how they can introduce your family to conversations about money. [0:07:01.2] Introducing Nudge: The Final Edition by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, and the concept of libertarian paternalism. [0:08:50.0] Cameron shares his story of the week, an article from Magnify Money on how emotions can influence investor decisions. [0:13:53.3] An update on our response to a listener question on the CAPE ratio by discussing the work of John Cochrane on determining predictability. [0:17:24.2] We unpack a listener question on whether one should be looking to convert family members who fit into the average, active investor archetype. [0:21:47.6] What Benjamin has learned from Think Again by Adam Grant, about how to talk to people you disagree with. [0:24:15] How Benjamin experienced a revelation on index funds. [0:29:28.5] An examination of index funds and global returns over the last century based on the research of Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton and their book Triumph of the Optimists. [0:36:30.3] An in-depth look at how global events factor into Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton’s data. [0:39:35.9]
S2 E165 · Thu, September 02, 2021
Gordon Irlam: (Near) Optimal Retirement Planning using Machine Learning
The evergreen subject of retirement planning is something that we prioritize here at the Rational Reminder Podcast, and today we have a very interesting conversation in which we explore the topic from a slightly different perspective. We are joined by Gordon Irlam, who is a notable researcher with a wealth of experience from the world of tech and beyond. We have the chance to ask Gordon about bonds, annuities, and optimal allocations for different outlooks, and also get his perspective on charitable giving, effective altruism, and different spending plans. Gordon has conducted some amazing research and even developed his own tools to help investors calculate the variables of their situations. This episode is a great gateway for listeners to explore these concepts, as well as make use of Gordon's resources. Our guest's personal story is equally fascinating, after working with Google early on, and subsequently starting a company that was then acquired by Google, Gordon has leveraged his experience and finances in order to continue asking questions that interest him and will definitely interest our listeners. So for this standout conversation with a great mind, be sure to take a listen. Key Points From This Episode: Looking back on the Google equity that Gordon sold and how he feels about the decision now. [0:03:00.8] Google’s acquisition of a company that Gordon started and the impact of this financial windfall. [0:04:33.1] Gordon's explanation of effective altruism and how he utilizes the idea. [0:06:25.3] Approaches to asset allocation for foundations and how this differs from personal funds. [0:10:28.7] Comparing practitioner and economist approaches to financial planning. [0:15:59.7] An explanation of stochastic dynamic programming and its strengths. [0:17:45.5] Why Gordon now favors reinforcement learning over stochastic dynamic programming. [0:20:12.6] Considering the role of annuities in Gordon's optimal model for retirement planning. [0:25:05.3] Constant spending versus variable spending in the optimal retirement plan. [0:27:55.2] Gordon's practical advice for entering retirement and tracking spending. [0:29:35.8] Exploring mean reversion in stock returns for tactical planning. [0:32:16.6] A message from Gordon about fixed guaranteed income and the value of long-duration inflation index bonds. [0:35:18.7] Advice to younger individuals and investors; the importance of saving. [0:36:18.9] Thoughts on possible future innovations for the problem of better portfolio building. [0:37:45.3] Gordon's definition of success: the ability to work o
S2 E164 · Thu, August 26, 2021
Comprehensive Overview: The 4% Rule
Today’s episode is the first that takes a new format we are piloting, where we compile clips from the most valuable conversations we have had in different episodes on a given topic. To kick it all off we will be devoting this episode to inflation-adjusted retirement spending and the nuances of the 4% rule. We start off with a clip from our conversation with Bill Bengen, creator of the 4% rule, where he explains the concept. From there, we pull up an excerpt from an interview with Wade Pfau, hearing him weigh in on how this rule only works in the context of the US and Canada. Next up, Fred Vetesse talks about the changes in stock and bond yields and how they further problematize the 4% rule. After that, Professor Moshe Molevsky makes the case for flexible spending, followed by Michale Kitces with his favourite variable spending rules. We grab a segment from our chat with Scott Rieckens where he argues that the 4% rule should be seen as more of a guideline for making financial decisions than a rule. Bill Bengen’s interview then features again as we hear his comments on the effects of small-cap value stocks and cyclically adjusted price-earnings on safe withdrawal rates. Tune in for this fascinating set of highlights, the main point of which is that the 4% rule should rather be used as a guideline for financial planning and that where actual spending is concerned, a flexible approach is more sensible. Key Points From This Episode: Bill Bengen, creator of the 4% rule, explains how the concept relates to inflation-adjusted retirement spending. [0:03:50.8] Wade Pfau speaks about how the 4% rule doesn’t work in an international context. [0:09:15.0] Fred Vettesse lays out the contrast between today and the period Bill studied. [0:12:31.1] The importance of having flexibility in retirement spending with Moshe Milevsky. [0:14:51.8] Variable spending rules with Michael Kitces; ratcheting, guardrails, and more. [0:19:27.3] Scott Rieckens on the 4% rule as a tool for making financial decisions. [0:32:33.8] Bill Bengen comments on the problems that have been found with the 4% rule. [0:38:35.7] The effects of small-cap value stocks on the safe withdrawal rate with Bill Bengen. [0:42:52.8] The effects of cyclically adjusted price-earnings on safe withdrawal rates with Bill Bengen. [0:47:20.6] Final thoughts on the 4% rule with Ben and Cameron. [0:51:37.8]
S2 E163 · Thu, August 19, 2021
Dave Plecha: The Long and Short of Investing in Bonds
Even among rational investors with diversified portfolios, there seems to be less known about the inner workings of the bond portion of their investments. Here on the show today to help us get a better understanding of fixed income investments is none other than Dave Plecha, Global Head of Fixed Income at Dimensional Fund Advisors. Dave is one of the authorities on the subject of bonds and is amazing at articulating the concepts at play in this arena. This conversation goes in-depth, but is also a great starting point for investors to begin thinking about this part of a portfolio, and deepen an understanding of something that is so often misunderstood or misused. As you will hear, Dave has a real passion for this subject and has been presenting and speaking on precisely this work for the last twenty years. We cover a lot of ground with Dave, talking about why his approach might be confused with a certain type of market timing, the impacts of inflation, the current low interest rates and if these affect bond investments, an explanation of forward rates, and so much more that you will not want to miss. We even find time for a quick story about Dave's early days working with Eugene Fama, so make sure to stay tuned in for that. Key Points From This Episode: Assessing the role of bonds in a portfolio, in relation to the current low interest rates. [0:02:30.3] Concerns over negative interest rates for bond investors. [0:05:30.1] Bonds and real returns; the impact of inflation on Canada's market. [0:09:30.7] Dave's perspective on the argument for long bonds as diversifying assets. [0:15:39.4] Comparing and contrasting the bond market with the stock market. [0:17:55.7] The trading of bonds and what differentiates it from trading stocks. [0:22:29.5] The volatility of last March and Dave's reflections on trading during that period. [0:27:17.8] Differentiating Dimensional's approach to bonds from the other big firms'. [0:29:21.7] The primary factors that influence expected returns in fixed income. [0:31:40.4] Understanding forward rates and the information they provide about expected returns. [0:37:26.7] Building better investing strategies using forwards rates. [0:40:43.5] Clarifying expected premiums for maturity in a variable maturity strategy. [0:44:06.7] Dave explains why market timing does not work with regard to fixed income. [0:46:30.4] Quantifying the differences in expected returns from the index and Dimensional. [0:51:01.7] A great argument from Dave for maintaining a diversified approach to all investments. [0:52:31.51] </li
S2 E162 · Thu, August 12, 2021
How to Select a (Good) Financial Advisor
Today our main topic expands on a recent episode in which we talked about what constitutes good financial advice, and here we look at how to go about finding the kind of advice that you want and need. It is one thing to know what it is, but that does mean it is straightforward to locate an advisor or firm that provides it. After our opening salvo of some media recommendations and a review of the fascinating book on different ideas on leadership, called The Starfish and the Spider, we dive into a listener question about where to geographically weight your investments and the idea of underweighting the US equity of your portfolio. This leads to a much bigger consideration of the research, which we try to breeze through, and in sum seems to lead us back to the idea of the non-predictability of markets. For our main subject, we share an extensive list of questions to ask yourself before even beginning any conversations with advisors, and using your answers to determine the kind of advisor you need. From there, we get into the questions you can ask the advisor and firms you approach in order to make sure you find the best fit for your needs. We talk about credentials, investment philosophies, firm policies, and everything in between, and we will be posting this full list on our community platform for your reference too. Stay tuned for today's Talking Sense card, and Bad Advice of the Week too, and make sure to tune in for the great guests we have lined up in the coming weeks. Key Points From This Episode: The positions that we are currently looking to fill here at the podcast! [0:05:48.2] This week's book of the week: unpacking The Starfish and the Spider and its lessons on leadership. [0:09:53.1] Looking at an interesting blog post about the power of systems over goals. [0:12:57.8] A listener question dealing with underweighting US equity in comparison to emerging markets. [0:14:40.5] Plotting trend lines and the inconsistent relationship between forecasts and outcomes. [0:23:02.4] Adjusting the standard errors, when using overlapping data samples. [0:27:48.3] Bootstrapped simulations for defining predictability and market timing. [0:29:20.2] Good financial advice and how to make sure you find it. [0:32:02.8] The three channels through which you can access advice; commission-based, asset-based fee advice, and fee-only. [0:33:30.2] The conflict of interest that arises with us delivering our thoughts on this topic. [0:36:28.8] Credentials and qualifications to look out for in Canada and abroad. [0:38:20.3] Starting with what you want from an advisor and departing from clearly defined goals. [0:41:1
S2 E161 · Thu, August 05, 2021
Katy Milkman: How to Change your Financial Habits
Today we are so happy to welcome the amazing Katy Milkman to the show. Katy is the author of the impressive and inspiring new book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, and in this episode, we get the inside scoop from her about her work, with specific attention to how it can be applied to investment and finances. Emerging from an engineering background, Katy has a powerful and unique skillset to be tackling the social sciences, and we hear from her about how this path has impacted her thoughts on data quality and the areas she has chosen to research. Our guest shares some very interesting and sometimes surprising information on the idea of fresh starts, commitment devices, and ambitious goals, before we tackle the fascinating subjects of laziness and confidence in relation to our saving habits. Listeners can expect to come away with some renewed reasons for data-driven decisions as well as some new impetus to double down on healthy change. We cannot recommend Katy's book highly enough, so tune in to hear what she has to say and make sure to purchase this amazing read. Key Points From This Episode: Unpacking the idea of a 'fresh start' and the ideal times for this. [00:02:26.2] Instances when fresh starts might be harmful instead of helpful. [00:07:28.1] Better methods for adhering to goals around saving money. [00:12:04.6] Commitment devices and how these can aid people in avoiding dipping into savings. [00:19:04.3] The value of ambitious goals and the impacts of different kinds of goal setting. [00:22:13.7] Using the power of a new identity in the process of goal setting around retirement savings. [00:26:00.8] Katy's suggestions for taking responsibility for independent saving. [00:29:58.7] Thoughts on laziness; utilizing this inherent tendency for our benefit. [00:31:43.6] Katy's perspective on habit-forming; habit loops, consistency, and triggering certain behaviours through rewards. [00:35:40.6] Decision-making and confidence; how much it matters and how to increase it. [00:42:11.4] More productive conversations around advice, assistance, and expertise. [00:46:31.2] The influence of community on our success; how determinant the people around us are. [00:49:38.6] Considering the permanence or perpetual struggle of behavioural change. [00:52:20.6] How accountability and the role of third parties can initiate meaningful change. [00:54:21.1] Katy's concerns over data quality and how this has impacted the areas of her research. [00:55:24.9] How Katy defines succe
S2 E160 · Thu, July 29, 2021
Day Trading in 2020: Did Free Trading Change Everything?
Today we get the chance to take some very interesting listener questions and dig into fascinating findings on day trading in 2020. To kick things off we have a quick review of Simon Sinek's insightful new book, The Infinite Game before rounding up some of the news from the investing space. Then it's time to tackle a number of questions from a member of our thriving community and break down some helpful responses to queries about bonds, retirement, convexity, different types of ETFs, and more. We were lucky enough to draw on some great wisdom within our network of advisors to help us answer these complex questions, so you will not want to miss the specifics that we dive into. From there, we dive into the main course of today's show, exploring the topic of day trading in 2020. With the rise of mobile trading on apps like Robinhood, there has been a spike in what some may call casual or free trading. We unpack some of the surprising and not-so-surprising findings on the impact of Robinhood's model, looking at the community's trend towards herding and how the smartphone platforms are changing the way people invest. The main conclusion here may not be a big surprise to any of our listeners, with the higher frequency of transactions leading to worse returns in the long run. For all this, plus some Talking Sense questions cards, and a whole lot more, listen in with us. Key Points From This Episode: This week's book review of The Infinite Game by Simon Sinek. [0:06:02.7] News from the world of investing: Vanguard's latest move into indexing, and more. [0:10:30.8] A series of listener questions dealing with bonds and retirement. [0:15:51.2] An argument for federal government bonds when prioritizing liquidity. [0:18:26.7] Understanding convexity and 'bullet' portfolios in this context. [0:20:36.7] Ten-year treasury ETFs versus all duration ETFs. [0:23:52.4] Weighing provincial bonds and their lack of liquidity against Canada's governmental bonds. [0:26:12.1] Looking into what the research shows us about day trading during last year. [0:29:01.6] Available data on Robinhood users and their general tendency to herd investments. [0:33:40.7] The losses incurred by the Robinhood community during herding. [0:38:29.0] Digging a little deeper on transaction costs and how this actually plays out at Robinhood. [0:44:20.1] Market efficiency as it relates to these new ways of 'free' trading. [0:48:29.6] Another round of Talking Sense cards; things to save and decision hindsight. [0:52:32.1] Bad advice of the week courtesy of Canada's big banks. [0:59:18.6]</strong
S2 E159 · Thu, July 22, 2021
Bill Schultheis: Build Wealth and Get on With Your Life
The work of Bill Schultheis has had a profound effect on us here at the Rational Reminder Podcast, and eventually having him join us on the show is truly an honour! Bill is the author of the Coffeehouse Investor series and is currently the Principal and Senior Advisor at Soundmark, in Kirkland, Washington. Throughout his career Bill has dedicated himself to helping his clients make the choices that best serve them and their particular needs, and his approach has continued to grow and improve over the decades he has been in the game. We have a wonderful conversation with Bill, charting his course from his early days on Wall Street, to writing his first book and starting Soundmark, to where is today. Bill gives us some great insider insight into the important concepts from his books and also talks about current issues in the financial world, like the impact of cryptocurrencies. Towards the end of our conversation, we get even more philosophical with our guest sharing some thoughts on what constitutes a 'rich life', and the importance of listening to your heart when it comes to your big decisions. So for this and much more from an inspiring and sensible voice, be sure to join us today! Key Points From This Episode: Bill's upbringing on a farm in Washington with a large family. [0:04:16.2] The route that Bill took to publishing his first book as a way to share the wisdom of indexing. [0:06:40.7] The beginnings of Soundmark and the first clients that Bill started helping. [0:10:13.4] Bill's most recent book and the three ground rules it lays out for readers. [0:12:36.3] Unpacking the 'coffeehouse investor' model portfolio. [0:18:20.7] How Bill approaches and explains diversification to his clients. [0:21:54.7] Thoughts on presenting data and challenging strongly held views from clients . [0:23:14.1] The impact of cryptocurrencies and commission-free trading on indexing. [0:25:53.6] Comparing the commonly held investing approaches of now and the 1990s. [0:29:01.0] The approaches to wealth building that Bill recommends to younger people. [0:30:52.7] How a persistent attitude served Bill when looking for a publisher for his book. [0:33:07.4] The basic strengths and weaknesses of index funds. [0:34:56.3] Bill's idea of a 'rich life' and what this means to him. [0:39:55.2] How to 'dial in your power settings' with your financial planning and common mistakes to avoid. [0:41:19.2] Listening to your heart and finding the financial and professional life that feels right. [0:44:52.7] How dissatisfaction can lead to unhealt
S2 E158 · Thu, July 15, 2021
Loss Harvesting and the Myth of Tax Alpha
Welcome back to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, where we give you the most considered and evidence-based information about investing in Canada. Our focus for this episode is the topic of tax loss harvesting, a subject we have touched on before but felt warranted a revisit, with some updates. To kick off the show, we review Playing to Win , looking at the illuminating perspective it offers with regards to strategy and preparation. From there we turn to some recent investing news on ETFs and Robinhood, before we get into the main course of today's show. There are plenty of pitches and arguments for why tax loss selling can be very rewarding, and while these are not necessarily false, there are certain ways in which the information can be misleading, or not comprehensive for all investors. We discuss how best to think about the supposed gains, noting the importance of high expected returns and the time frame in which a case study is made. We also think about some of the potentially negative results of letting tax drive your investment decisions, despite the seeming attractiveness of this route. One of the most important points here is the adjustment needed in order to apply these strategies to the Canadian market, as many of the pitches and research are based in the US system, which has significant differences when it comes to taxation. We highlight some red flags to look out for and give some more general warnings around rushing into investments that lean too heavily in this direction. So for all this and a bunch more great advice for your portfolio, join us for the show. Key Points From This Episode: This week's book review of Playing to Win by Roger Martin and A G Lafley. [0:08:43.3] Continued increases for ETFs and comparing the statistics with recent history. [0:12:30.7] Some amazing statistics about Robinhood users and cryptocurrency investments! [0:15:18.5] A reintroduction to, and revisited analysis of, tax loss harvesting. [0:18:20.8] The best times to consider tax loss selling; waiting for high expected returns. [0:27:55.5] Recent findings on the tax alpha and modifying the arguments and assumptions. [0:33:20.5] Creating a new base case to work from with some helpful adjustments. [0:38:41.3] The importance of the time period when looking at historical returns for tax loss selling. [0:43:10.1] Cases in which we believe tax loss selling makes the most sense. [0:46:14.3] Looking at the tax implications of pooling funds with other investors. [0:49:02.7] Locating these tax loss strategies within a specifically Canadian context. [0:52:18.5] A couple Talking Sense cards dealing with
S2 E157 · Thu, July 08, 2021
Rob Arnott: Dissecting Smart Beta, Investing in Disruption, and Momentum
Today we welcome Rob Arnott to the show! Rob is the founder of Research Affiliates and is a prolific writer who has published hundreds of articles for many different journals. We know firsthand, the power of Rob's work, and how it can alter the way you think about investing, and this depth of knowledge, coupled with his ability to make complex topics understandable makes him a dream guest for us! Rob is the co-author of The Fundamental Index, and we get some insight into this subject along with many other groundbreaking areas he has worked on. We cannot stress enough the rarity of Rob's gift for getting difficult ideas across in a deliberate and approachable way, and this is apparent through this illuminating conversation. For us, it was quite surreal to speak to someone so influential, and listeners can expect to come away with a greater understanding of 'smart-beta', intangible assets, forecasting, and some insight into the interesting areas of earnings dilution and 'the big market delusion', before Rob shares some very surprising information on factor momentum at the end of our chat. So for this and a whole lot more, in a truly stand-out episode, be sure to listen in! Key Points From This Episode: Rob's perspective on the drawbacks of cap-weighted indexing. [0:02:47.2] Getting to grips with 'smart-beta' and its links to RAFI. [0:06:21.6] Building a fundamental index and what the weights are based on. [0:11:17.4] Misconceptions of the value of backtesting when making investment decisions. [0:13:43.3] The prevalence of extreme factor-drawdowns for investments. [0:17:22.7] Weighing the importance of intangible assets and what to trust in this regard. [0:23:32.8] Value stocks in the current drawdown; value's relative cheapening over recent years. [0:25:53.8] Stories about the inner workings of a company and how this can vary in importance. [0:28:41.5] Unpacking 'the big market delusion' and the paper that Rob co-authored on the subject. [0:33:33.2] Rob's work on earnings dilution and how it relates to bubble-formation. [0:37:00.9] How the findings on earnings dilution impact strategies towards disruptive industries. [0:40:19.9] Forecasting the expected returns of a factor portfolio and utilizing Research Affiliates website! [0:44:03.0] The possibility of adding value through timing exposure to factors. [0:47:26.7] The truth about momentum in historical back-tests in the last few decades. [0:49:12.8] Rob explains the real costs of trading! [0:55:42.7] Momentum's primary existence in factors, ahead of individu
S2 E156 · Thu, July 01, 2021
Climate Change vs. The Stock Market
The looming issue of climate change has far-reaching implications, not least of which are relevant to the financial and investment world. Today we spend some time considering these impacts, with a focus on the question of whether climate risk is a priced investment. The short answer, conferred by the numerous academic explorations into the subject, is yes. This answer, however, still leaves investors with many options and contrasting possible approaches as to how to act. We get into some of the different avenues to explore when considering your best route, taking into account both ethical constraints and returns, as well as a long-term vision of sustainability. We also talk about why big companies with less of a focus on ethics may be tempted to go green for financial reasons, how investors might enact a moral stance by investing in fewer green companies, and many more surprising possibilities that arise out of the current findings. Rounding out all this serious discussion, we squeeze in an interesting book review from Hans Rosling, some Talking Sense questions, and of course, bad advice of the week, all of which you are not going to want to miss. Key Points From This Episode: This week's book review, looking at Hans Rosling's Factfulness . [0:08:09.2] Recent financial and investment news; penalties, TFSAs, and a big shift from Wealthfront. [0:14:36.7] The question of climate change and markets connected to the use of fossil fuels. [0:19:04.5] Expected rate of returns in relation to the costs of capital, and the idea of climate hedging. [0:26:46.2] Looking at empirical evidence on the pricing of climate risk. [0:28:40.1] Recent scholarly findings on the subject of whether climate risk is priced. [0:31:50.3] Summing up the academic arguments for why and how pricing of climate risks operates. [0:38:35.7] The cost of capital incentives for companies to reduce their exposure to climate risk. [0:40:19.3] Participating in the transition of companies to greener and more sustainable practices by investing in them. [0:45:12.9] Financial needs for different age groups, at the beginning and the end of a lifetime. [0:48:17.6] Personal savings goals versus generosity towards loved ones . [0:51:47.2] This week's Bad Advice of the Week: making inflation trades in cryptocurrencies and gold. [0:53:27.1]
S2 E155 · Thu, June 24, 2021
Don Ezra: Planning for Life After Full Time Work
One of the major topics we hope to help our listeners with is retirement planning, and today we have a really informative and illuminating conversation with a true expert in the field, Don Ezra. His approach is typified by his focus on retirement and happiness, and their important intersection, subjects he has broached in his many published books, notably Life Two, and Happiness. Don is a self-professed financial nerd, so you know that he will fit right in on this podcast! His advice is relatable and easy to understand, a result of working on his own retirement along the way. Don is an actuary by trade and helped establish Russell Investments Canada in 1984, through which he worked on many huge pension funds across the world, endowing him with amazing expertise in the space. In our conversation, Don gives us such a wide-ranging view of his approach, and the amazing conglomeration of ideas he has amassed on the subject of better retirement, or as he likes to call it, graduation from full-time employment! He breaks things down in easy and catchy ways, giving us some fundamental questions that can help initially guide the retiree, around purpose, action, and money. From there he talks about the seven asset classes of your life's abundance portfolio, needs versus wants, and even finds a spot to comment on the strengths and weakness of the FIRE philosophy. So for all this and much more, join us on the Rational Reminder today! Key Points From This Episode: Don's feelings around the time of his retirement from such a successful career! [0:02:10.4] The common feeling of discombobulation around retirement and Don's thoughts on addressing it. [0:03:41.2] Questions people should be asking and answering as they approach retirement. [0:06:45.8] Safety, growth, longevity; the three things we need for our finances in retirement. [0:08:49.7] Don explains the sequence of returns and some misconceptions about averages. [0:10:21.1] Weighing the uncertainty of life expectancy against that of random stock returns. [0:12:24.8] Better ways to calculate life expectancy for individuals and couples. [0:15:15.7] Don's advice to the average person looking to build a diversified portfolio for retirement. [0:16:54.1] How Don has approached his own portfolio and generating retirement income. [0:21:10.8] The importance of flexibility and adjusting a retirement budget over time. [0:23:48.7] When retirees should be seriously considering annuities. [0:25:52.1] The dimension that inflation adds to these questions for people in retirement. [0:27:49.4] Assumptions that Don uses for his life expectancy planning.
S2 E154 · Thu, June 17, 2021
Renting vs. Buying a Home: How to Decide
Welcome back to another episode of the sensible money show. The focus this week is the age-old question of housing; whether to buy or to rent. After our preliminary remarks, book review, and a new TV recommendation, we get down to brass tacks on the important things to look at when assessing your living situation. There are some commonly held views on the expenses and sacrifices associated with real estate, and we do our best to share some of the facts as they stand. We get into some meaningful ways to truly compare the costs of each option, looking at the financial aspects, risk, quality of life, and related psychological elements to the debate. The truth is that there will be costs associated with each, but that they may not always lie where you think they do! For instance, it is commonly believed that it is less risky to own than to rent, however, the evidence suggests otherwise. Similarly, many of us assume that the costs of owning a property are greatly diminished once it is paid off, again, this is not necessarily true. Our main argument here is to base your choices on factors more closely related to your physical and mental health, things like stress and relaxation due to noise and travel times. Key Points From This Episode: This week's highly recommended book, Noise . [0:05:37.3] Unpacking the new article by Larry Swedroe titled 'The Misguided Faith in the Fiduciary Standard' [0:11:50.7] A few thoughts on FIRE, positive psychology, and moral judgments. [0:16:49.2] The big decision that so many of us are faced with: buy or rent? [0:20:41.7] Flawed logic around mortgage payments and rental costs. [0:25:55.5] Opportunity and maintenance costs and the truth about depreciation. [0:29:51.7] Equating the total costs of renting and owning and making a judgment based on this. [0:36:53.8] The ratio of prices to rent in Canada currently and in the last few decades. [0:39:47.9] Risk and homeownership; why renting is less risky in many ways. [0:40:50.8] Keeping the focus on living a good life when making real estate decisions. [0:45:15.7] The surprising relationship between owning a property and a sense of control. [0:49:16.8] Weighing all the factors and making an informed decision based on wellbeing. [0:55:30.4] This week's Talking Sense segment dealing saving, speed of decision-making. [0:56:08.8] Bad advice of the week: Fidelity's investment initiative aimed at teenagers. [1:00:34.4]
S2 E153 · Thu, June 10, 2021
Prof. Johanna Peetz: Personal Spending, Time Perception, and Close Relationships
Today we speak to Professor Johanna Peetz about how the errors people make about predicting their futures affect financial planning and relationships. Professor Peetz is an Associate Professor of Psychology at Carleton University and her three main research interests are time perception, personal spending, and close relationships. We kick the conversation off on the topic of biased spending estimates, the idea that people are bad at budgeting, and Professor Peetz gets into the main causes and implications of this issue. Our guest gives pointers for how to make less biased predictions for spending and makes a great point about how people with more aggressive saving goals often don’t spend less. We move onto the subject of long-term financial planning and motivation, and Professor Peetz weighs in on a few methods to get better at breaking down big goals into steps as a way of keeping motivation up. Another big discussion from today is how this idea of behaviour predictions fits into the context of healthy relationships. We talk about the connection between partner-satisfying decisions and happiness, and how partners should view each other's ability to keep promises. So for all this and more on how to get better at knowing your personality traits and the effects this can have on finances and relationships, tune in today. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing Professor Johanna Peetz and her research on predictive errors. [0:00:48.2] If people are good at predicting how much money they're going to spend in the future. [0:03:05.2] The causes and implications of these biased spending estimates. [0:04:33.5] What people can do keep their spending in line with their goals. [0:06:53.5] The financial literacy gap between men and women. [0:13:37.5] Increasing motivation to reach long-term financial goals based on a future self. [0:17:05.7] Setting goals using intrinsic over extrinsic reasons. [0:21:40.5] How financial planners can help their clients find and reach their goals. [0:23:56.5] The relationship between pro-social behaviour and happiness. [0:24:51.5] How good people are at predicting relationship-enhancing behaviour. [0:28:27.0] Dealing with money-related relationship conflict amongst being bad at predicting behaviour and spending. [0:32:39.0] How unpacking expenses can help people make less biased spending predictions. [0:34:26.0] Different ways of responding to boredom in a relationship. [0:39:34.0] Taking the perspective of the other person to improve the forecast of relationship-enhancing behaviours. [0:43:10.0] What Professor Peetz is
S2 E152 · Thu, June 03, 2021
Evaluating Systematic Equity Strategies
Welcome back to your favourite Canadian podcast about sensible investing! Today we are focusing on evaluating equity strategies and wondering aloud whether you should be chasing these anomalies, thinking about the costs and turnover, and how these products are being implemented. These are just some of the important questions that can be asked on this subject, and we do our best to cover the most vital points in this episode. We start things off with our customary book review segment, taking a look at Katy Milkman's fascinating new title How to Change and the thesis it lays out on the continuum from now into the future. We then turn to a few interesting and pertinent news stories dealing with the CPP and clarifying the role of fund managers! After the preamble, we get into the main course of today's show and talk about some of the most prominent literature on the subject of equity strategies before laying out some criteria for useful data in this discussion. Our main point can be simplified as such: in the event of selecting systemic equity strategies with hopes of beating the market, there are many additional tradeoffs and costs that should be considered, many more than we even have time here to go through! To close out the show we take on a few questions for our Talking Sense segment and share some somewhat relieving news for our bad advice of the week! Key Points From This Episode: A retraction and re-review of the last episode's book of the week, Effortless ! [0:04:26.4] This week's book review of the exciting new title from Katy Milkman, How to Change . [0:06:35.6] A round-up of recent news stories from the WSJ, The Globe and Mail. [0:10:32.2] The surprising results of the Canadian year-end SPIVA scorecard. [0:14:55.8] Investment topic of the week: evaluating equity strategies and the inspiration behind it. [0:17:24.5] The identification of systematic factors; Fama and French's original findings and newer research. [0:21:15.9] Conditions for useful data: persistent over time and pervasive across markets, strong economic rationale, and non-reliance on rising valuations. [0:23:44.3] The two forms of implementation costs that the data needs to survive: implicit and explicit. [0:32:40.1] The importance and impact of taking transaction costs into account for your portfolio. [0:35:53.0] The rough estimations that Ben put together in 2019 for a fund premium regression. [0:38:54.6] The 'what if I am wrong' check; the usefulness of maintaining a healthy level of skepticism. [0:42:22.5] Summarizing today's argument about additional costs and tradeoffs when selecting equity strategies. <stro
S2 E151 · Thu, May 27, 2021
Professor Brad Cornell: A Skeptic’s Look at the Cross Section of Expected Returns
There is an overarching investment philosophy that permeates most of what we do here at the Rational Reminder Podcast, and while some guests' positions might differ at times, it is rare that we have someone on the show whose approach is as strongly contrasted with ours, as Professor Brad Cornell. Professor Cornell's arguments are so well-founded and researched that they require a re-examination of positions that we feel have been a given for us for a long time. He is the author of about 150 referenced articles, four books, and has conducted hugely interesting work on the current state of value investing. His research with Aswath Damodaran, and insights into Tesla's valuation provide great food for thought, and we get into all of this on today's show! Our conversation also covers ways to go about picking a fund manager and a slightly different lens through which to view past performance. We feel truly grateful to have such a different, yet valid, perspective expressed so well here, and cannot wait to share this highly useful information with all of our listeners. Tune in to hear it all from Professor Brad Cornell! Key Points From This Episode: The difference between a stock characteristic and a stock risk factor loading. [0:03:30.2] Some of the challenges in using characteristics to develop an investment strategy. [0:05:43.8] The problem of non-stationary frameworks as a starting point for investing. [0:07:33.4] How little we know about the cross-section of expected stock returns. [0:08:32.1] Concentrated, characteristic-focused portfolios versus something more diversified. [0:11:12.7] Unpacking the 'big market delusion' and the huge power of the narrative. [0:12:11.4] Looking at the example of the electric car market and what it teaches us. [0:16:18.4] Professor Cornell's thoughts on how to pick a fund manager. [0:21:23.0] Assessing the issues with mean reverting performance. [00:25:58] The most relevant ratio: price to a value estimat [00:30:35.2] Some thoughts from Professor Cornell on the rise in ESG investment. [00:32:22.5] Approaches to the expected equity risk premium for investors and planners. [00:39:45.0] Bringing in historical context to the conversation about predictability. [0:45:16.1] Professor Cornell's approach to calming down investors' reactivity to volatility. [0:47:56.5] A great definition of success from Professor Cornell! [00:49:57.2]
S2 E150 · Thu, May 20, 2021
The Ultimate Inflation Hedge
Is it possible to hedge your investments against different levels of inflation? This is the question we ask in today's episode, as we run through a variety of different investment approaches and commodities. While the answer may not come as a huge surprise, it is definitely worth the walk-through and getting to grips with what the literature can tell us in each scenario. After rounding up some news and a few reviews relevant to our usual subject matter, we dive straight into this topic, tackling the performance of stocks and bonds, gold, international stocks, value stocks, and more! We also share some general thoughts and questions to ask during periods where inflation is high, before positing our view that there is no single successful hedge against inflation, but rather our usual position of an adjusted and diversified portfolio will serve you as well in this regard as in others. We finish off this episode with a few of our usual quick cards, and this week's disturbing bad advice! So tune in to hear all about what you should know about expected and unexpected inflation and a whole lot more! Key Points From This Episode: The exciting recent decisions around succession that were made at PWL! [0:00:22.4] Ben's review of Greg McKeown's new book Effortless and Netflix's Money, Explained . [0:04:51.7] A quick round up of some big money news from around the country. [0:08:25.2] Reflecting on the recent performance of Wealthsimple portfolios. [0:13:26.6] ' The ultimate inflation hedge'; looking at returns under different conditions through the years. [0:19:50.1] Looking at the performance of stocks and bonds during high inflationary periods. [0:25:04.6] What to do and what to ask in situations with higher-than-expected inflation. [0:32:21.0] Weighing the value of gold as an inflation hedge; 'The Golden Dilemma' and 'The Golden Constant'. [0:39:50.3] The performance of international stocks during a period of high inflation. [0:44:05.8] What the research shows about value stocks and and their relation to inflationary periods. [0:45:55.2] The answer to the question: no perfect hedges against inflation! [0:52:04.7] Today's cards; saving versus spending, and tools versus treasures. [0:55:20.3] Bad advice of the week courtesy of the Investment Executive! [0:56:56.0]
S2 E149 · Thu, May 13, 2021
Professor Robert Novy-Marx: The Other Side of Value
Today’s guest is Professor Robert Novy-Marx, the Lori and Alan Zekelman Distinguished Professor of Business Administration at Simon Business School of the University of Rochester. Professor Novy-Marx is best known for his articulation of the profitability factor and has also done a ton of great work on momentum and low volatility. We kick our conversation off with Professor Novy-Marx’s thoughts on how profitability should inform portfolios. From there we hear why Professor Novy-Marx has a problem with evaluating the performance of a multi-signal strategy the same way that we would a single-signal strategy. He then talks about the trade-off between concentrated versus diversified factor exposure for capturing premiums. Next, we discuss why there is no good empirical evidence that we can time premiums. Professor Novy-Marx makes a great argument for why the regressions people use to say that the value spread works to predict the value premium can't be taken seriously. Our conversation moves to focus on how our guest defines price momentum and what drives it, and the nuances of investing in momentum. We then hear his perspectives on the low volatility anomaly and how profitability helps to explain it. After that, we talk about whether investing in a low-vol fund is a way of accessing value and profitability, and why the five-factor model is a trustworthy factor model for regular investors. In the last part of our conversation, we talk to Professor Novy-Marx about his approach to critiquing other methods before ending off with his definition of success. Tune in for this excellent evergreen conversation. Key Points From This Episode: We introduce today’s guest, Professor Robert Novy-Marx, and his work. [0:00:17] The significance of the relationship between profitability and stock returns for asset pricing. [0:0 2 : 45 ] How the risk-based story around profitability is completely counterintuitive. [0:0 8 : 51 ] The best way to go about using profitability in portfolios. [0: 12 : 34 ] When to target premiums individually and then combine them after the fact. [0: 14 : 48 ] How profitability is different from quality. [0: 16 : 26 ] Risks of building strategies that draw insight from different signals to identify a premium. [0: 18 :1 0 ] The trade-off between concentrated versus diversified factor exposure for capturing premiums. [0:</st
S2 E148 · Thu, May 06, 2021
Investing in Happiness
Today we dive deep into the connection between happiness and money, looking at a host of theories and studies that have examined the important factors in this discussion. The main material referenced is the fascinating, The Happiness Hypothesis by Jonathan Haidt, and during the episode, we get to look at a great selection of the findings and claims in the book. To kick things off, we consider the broad ideas around how money can stimulate happiness, as well as its addictive aspects, before examining a few of the most prominent lenses used for measuring different kinds of happiness. Talking about the ideas of Hedonia and Eudaimonia, the influence of forecasting and the future, and the effects of different kinds of spending, we see the common threads as well as the distinctions between these models of measurement. Ultimately all of this material should hopefully enable us to live out a better life with this information in mind, and we spend some time reflecting on some of the key takeaways that seem to come to the surface in the happiness debate. To finish off, we field some listener questions on avoiding spending, and returns on investment, before diving into this week's bad advice featuring a video starring Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Mark Cuban! Key Points From This Episode: A great book recommendation for getting to grips with branding and building relationships with consumers. [0:03:52.2] The interesting statement released by IIROC regarding conflicts of interest. [0:07:14.7] Barry Ritholtz's interview with Jack Brennan and their perspectives on index funds. [0:10:44.1] Books and studies on the subjects of happiness, finances, and addiction. [0:12:21.4] Different theories for the largest determining factors for happiness. [0:20:21.3] Hedonia and Eudaimonia; two different types of pleasure and their measurement. [0:24:47.6] Experienced happiness and experienced unhappiness; statistics from around the world. [0:32:04.1] Spending and happiness and the debate around the human ability to accurately forecast. [0:40:21.7] Designing a happy life based on all the research in the field. [0:44:48.8] Inverting the goal-setting process and working backward from what you don't want! [0:47:33.9] Love and work as the two most crucial ingredients for human happiness. [0:49:47.3] Avoiding the temptation of spending when aiming to save money. [0:51:15.6] Examples of investments that have paid off for Cameron and Benjamin. [0:52:31.1] Bad advice of the week; Buffett, Cuban, and Munger on diversification. [0:54:03.7]
S2 E147 · Thu, April 29, 2021
Paul Merriman: We're Talking Millions
It takes only a handful of smart choices to convert regular savings into a secure future. Today we welcome famed financial educator Paul Merriman onto the show to discuss how the right habits and investing approach can add millions to your retirement nest egg. After chatting about his personal and professional background, we dive into Paul’s investing philosophy and how it’s been influenced by the work of Eugene Fama. A significant theme in this episode, we then talk about why Vanguard’s portfolio allocation ensures that clients have the smoothest possible emotional relationship with their investments. This leads to a discussion on the benefits of simple versus complex funds and how simple funds fit with the preferences of many do-it-yourself investors. Linked to this, Paul explains why it’s emotion and not strategy that gets in the way of successful investing before exploring the challenges of sticking to portfolios that are heavily weighted in small-cap value stocks. Reflecting on his career as an advisor, we ask Paul about his difficulties in working with clients as well as the role of financial advisors. Later, Paul unpacks some of the top habits and beliefs that lead to investing success; a key focus of his new book, We’re Talking Millions . We wrap up our conversation by touching on target date glide paths, how Paul’s foundation educates investors, and the relationship between money and a life well-lived. With such an illustrious career in financial education, tune in to benefit from Paul’s investing advice. Key Points From This Episode: We introduce today’s episode with financial educator Paul Merriman. [0:00:17] Paul shares details about his personal and professional history. [0:03:16] How Eugene Fama’s work impacted the way that Paul built his firm. [0:06:55] What PWL Advisors went through to access Dimensional’s products. [0:08:21] Insights into the fateful chat that Paul had with Jack Bogle in 2017. [0:09:08] How Paul helps his clients balance fee frugality with expected returns. [0:13:29] Exploring the trade-offs between simple and complex funds. [0:16:49] Paul compares his former buy-and-hold strategy with his simpler new approach. [0:19:06] The costs of do-it-yourself investors having an overly-complicated portfolio. [0:22:46] The rationale underpinning the small-cap value strategy. [0:27:20] Why it’s so difficult to only invest in small-cap value stocks. [0:25:36] What Paul would say to clients who want to ditch their small-cap value stocks. [0:37:32] Paul reflects on challenges when communicating with investors. [0:40:39] We ask Paul ab
S2 E146 · Thu, April 22, 2021
Do Expected Stock Returns Wear a CAPE?
As many of you already know, we have been working hard to figure out the best way to model expected stock returns for financial planning and asset allocation. It has a lot of history in financial literature, which is to be expected, given the importance of the figure. In today’s episode, we’re looking all the way back to 1985, when Rajnish Mehra and Edward C.Prescott called the equity premium a puzzle, through to the present day, when the equity risk premium has only gotten larger. We dive into some of the theories for resolving the equity premium puzzle, explain why US stock market data isn’t the best way to estimate future premiums, thanks to its survivorship bias, and some of the general issues with interpreting past returns. Benjamin also gets into predictability, which is not as obvious as it seems, and highlights some of the information from the simulation he performed, and the big breakthroughs from running the numbers. All this and more in today’s episode on expected stock returns, so make sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: Kicking off with the fallout from the collapse of Archegos Capital, the death of Bernie Madoff, and the story of the $100 million New Jersey deli. [0:06:35] Reflecting on the recent article, ‘Could Index Funds be ‘Worse Than Marxism’?’. [0:11:05] On to today’s topic: do expected stock returns wear a cape? [0:13:05] Theories for resolving the equity premium puzzle; either the model is wrong or the historical premium was higher than it will be in the future. [0:14:14] Hear John H. Cochrane’s theory from his 1997 paper, ‘Where is the Market Going?’ [0:14:42] Why we can’t use historic US stock market data to approximate future premiums. [0:14:57] Other issues with looking to past returns, like no proof that the equity premium was stationary. [0:15:23] Why time periods characterized by decreasing risk should effectively see decreased discount rates too. [0:16:04] Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton (DMS) on expected stock returns using out of sample data. [0:16:40] Hear some of the equity risk premium stats from their world index versus the US. [0:19:38] How annual returns have been relatively unaffected by global financial crises. [0:21:15] From looking back, to what to expect going forward: the issues with interpreting past returns. [0:22:10] Why, according to DMS, expected returns equal the growth rate in dividends plus the dividend yield. [0:25:26] Hear the actual figures, which reflect the minor contribution of multiple expansion. [0:26:49] What a company is worth if it doesn’t distribute capital to shareholders. [0:29:03] Find out why the expected geometric equity risk premium works out to 3.5 percent. [0:30:13] While the DMS approach is reasonable, it still doesn’t account for whether expected returns are constant through time or if t
S1 E145 · Thu, April 15, 2021
Jennifer Risher: Talking About Money
From YouTube channels to get-rich playbooks, whole industries are devoted to the subject of building wealth. But few books present a clear and honest view of what it’s like to have a lot of money. Today we welcome author Jennifer Risher onto the show to share her insights on living with wealth. Early in the episode, we explore how Jennifer and her husband ‘hit the lottery twice’ by being given stock options for both Microsoft and Amazon before they went public. Jennifer then shares details about the key premise of her book: people with wealth never talk about their money. Informed by her experience of having sudden wealth, we discuss why gaining wealth doesn’t significantly change people despite it leading to feelings of isolation. After talking about how wealthy people rarely feel that they have enough, we unpack the many benefits that come from talking about your wealth. As Jennifer explains, using examples from her life, communicating your feelings about money is a solution to many relationship issues that arise from having wealth. Linked to this, we dive into how you can raise balanced children whose outlooks aren’t spoiled by affluence. Later, we touch on the role of giving, Jennifer's top advice for newly wealthy people, and how Jennifer views work now that it’s optional for her. We wrap up our conversation by hearing about how the wealthy make a positive impact on society. In this episode, we dispel many myths about being rich. Tune in for more on why we need to be talking about wealth. Key Points From This Episode: Details about author Jennifer Risher, today’s guest. [0:00:17] Jennifer shares why she wrote her book and the problems that it addresses. [0:02:43] Exploring the question: how much does wealth change you? [0:06:55] What wealth has given to Jennifer and what it hasn’t. [0:09:10] Jennifer describes the feelings that came with suddenly becoming wealthy. [0:10:14] The process informing Jennifer’s decision that she had ‘enough.’ [0:13:41] Hear Jennifer’s advice for couples who have different definitions of ‘enough.’ [0:16:49] How few wealthy people don’t feel that they have sufficient wealth. [0:19:03] The important role that financial advisors play aligning wealth with people’s values. [0:20:13] How Jennifer’s book is opening up the conversation on wealth. [0:23:09] Challenges around raising children in a state of affluence. [0:25:36] Why modelling virtuous behaviour is key in raising balanced children. [0:28:40] What Jennifer learned from speaking to other wealthy couples. [0:30:23] How having wealth can impact your relationships. [0:34:06]</s
S2 E144 · Thu, April 08, 2021
“Buying the Dip”
Today’s episode doesn’t have an external guest, but Benjamin and Cameron provide fascinating information on a vast range of topics. First, the discussion centers around the book that Cameron is currently reading and what it is teaching him about social networks, the ego-driven world of social media, and the benefits of anonymity online. The hosts share some of the findings from a very insightful discussion which took place on their anonymous community board platform around people’s thoughts on the positive and negative impacts of work. Happiness and the factors that cause it are a big theme in today’s show, as is the practice of ‘buying the dip.’ If you aren’t familiar with this term, you should have a decent understanding of what it is and why you shouldn’t do it by the time you finish listening. The hosts also discuss the incident that has been called “the largest financial meltdown since 2008,” who the RR Model Portfolios are aimed at, and some of the ways people react to crises (in terms of their investments.) Tune in for a whirlwind education on some very important topics! Key Points From This Episode: Benjamin and Cameron share statistics which show how the podcast is growing. [0:02:53] How the hosts find the guests that they interview on the podcast. [0:03:10] Staggering one year stock performance numbers. [0:04:22] Why Cameron is reading The Hidden Psychology of Social Networks , and what he is learning from it. [0:06:56] Community boards and the arguments for and against anonymous online communities. [0:08:02] The “epic meltdown” which makes up the news story for today’s episode. [0:10:17] Where the value of the Rational Reminder Model Portfolios lies, who will benefit from them, and who probably won’t. [0:13:53] Tools which make implementation easy. [0:21:00] Data on individuals participating in 401(k) plans and a discussion around how humans deal with crises. [0:22:12] The conversation around connection, control, competence, context that was sparked by the question of whether the goal of retiring is a good one to have. [0:26:43] Jonathan Haidt’s Happiness Hypothesis; the importance of love and work. [0:29:34] People don’t tend to prioritize time over money to a point where it is detrimental. [0:32:53] What it means to ‘Buy the Dip,’ the reasons that people do it and the problems with engaging in this practice. [0:33:15] The paper that Benjamin has produced on ‘buying the dip’ which will be out by the time you listen to this episode. [0:40:34] Why the ‘buying the dip’ strategy has been particularly costly for Ameri
S2 E143 · Thu, April 01, 2021
Ashley Whillans: How to be (Time) Rich
Technology has made our lives easier but it has also fragmented our leisure time, creating a near-universal feeling that we have too much to do and not enough time to do it. Today we speak with Harvard Business School Assistant Professor Ashley Whillans about how our views of money and experience of time poverty impact our sense of well-being. We open our conversation by exploring the idea of time poverty, with Ashley unpacking the many factors that contribute towards feeling time-poor. Diving into the specifics, we talk about how different income groups experience time poverty and how these feelings are influenced by job satisfaction. After looking into differences in how we value time and money, Ashley shares research into how lower-income women benefit as much from being given extra time as they do from being given money. We then discuss the predictors of whether someone will prioritize time or money before chatting about the best practices and tips that will save you time and boost your well-being. Later, we hear Ashley’s insights into why wealth doesn’t lead to happiness and the need to engage in meaningful activities that increase the value of your time. With such radical changes in our work environments, we reflect on how work-from-home often deepens our feelings of time poverty. We wrap our discussion with Ashley by touching on retiring early versus working for longer, why you don’t need wealth to feel consistent happiness, and how you can incorporate time poverty into your financial planning. As Ashley’s research shows, money can be as integral as time in living a happier, more fulfilling life. Tune in to hear more about the connection between time poverty and your well-being. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s guest, Assistant Professor Ashley Whillans. [0:00:02] Ashley unpacks the concept of time poverty. [0:02:24] Exploring the relationship between time poverty and well-being. [0:03:17] Whether financially wealthy people feel less time-poor. [0:06:58] How job satisfaction impacts dissatisfaction and feelings of being time-poor. [0:10:00] The data underpinning why people are so bad at valuing their time. [0:10:59] Why, for lower-income earners, it can be valuable to trade money for time. [0:13:37] What predisposes people to feel more time-poor than others. [0:16:12] The causal link between preferences for money, time, and well-being. [0:21:51] Hear how Ashley designs her studies to get truthful answers. [0:23:22] How you can think of time while boosting your well-being. [0:26:20] Ashley shares her best practices for maximizing your time. [0:28:22] How our mindsets can influen
S2 E142 · Thu, March 25, 2021
What is Financial Advice?
While there is no way of knowing what the best portfolio is, empirical data and financial economics have fixed the problems surrounding investing. But if we’ve fixed investing, then what’s the point of financial advisors? Today we dive into this topic and reveal why financial advice is still valuable to the everyday investor. We open the episode by touching on our movies and books for the week, as well as the latest from the financial world. We then explore why, despite their failure at making predictions, experts are so important across many industries. After defining what financial advice is, co-host Benjamin Felix systematically unpacks the value that financial advisors provide as they relate to key areas including goal-setting and quantification; asset allocation; understanding your human capital and insurance needs; selecting the right financial products; and tailoring strategies to tax considerations. Later, Benjamin highlights how financial advisors can help investors overcome their biases while helping them align their investing goals with living a meaningful life. We close the episode with our Talking Sense segment, followed by the bad financial advice of the week. When so much data is available, it’s necessary to revisit the relevancy of financial advisors. Join us to hear why they continue to play such a valuable role in helping people meet their investing goals. Key Points From This Episode: Cameron shares the birthday message he received from Seinfeld’s ‘Soup Nazi.’ [0:00:35] We discuss community feedback and the documentary The Last Blockbuster . [0:02:53] Details on financial educator Paul Merrimen, our next guest. [0:06:10] Updates on podcast merchandise and shipping times. [0:07:32] Elon Musk and Mark Carney; hear about our books of the week. [0:09:00] We talk about the latest from the financial world. [0:10:14] Introducing today’s planning topic: What is financial advice? [0:18:40] The role of financial planners when index fund investing is so easily available. [0:19:45] Exploring what financial advice is and what it isn’t. [0:23:37] We unpack the link between goal-formation and quantification and sound financial advice. [0:24:35] The challenge of trying to predict what will make us happy in the future. [0:27:07] Happiness, life satisfaction, and goal-setting as it relates to financial advice. [0:29:00] Pricing your goal and avoiding the hedonic trap of never ‘having enough.’ [0:32:00] Asset allocation as key to the value of financial advice. [0:34:02] Quantifying human capital and your insurance needs. [0:3
S2 E141 · Thu, March 18, 2021
Hal Hershfield: The Psychology of Long-term Decision Making
How do your perceptions of time influence your long-term decision-making and financial well-being? Today we speak with psychologist and UCLA Associate Professor Hal Hershfield to answer this abstract question. We open our conversation with Hal by exploring the concept of well-being. After chatting about the factors that impact financial well-being, Hal unpacks the balancing act that’s required to live in the present while safeguarding your wealth to support your future self. Hal shares exercises that can help you develop a more vivid sense of your future self and we discuss how this can lead to better financial decisions. We then dive into the role that free time plays in determining your well-being, leading into a discussion on how financial advisors can steer their clients towards achieving their idea of well-being. Returning to the notion of your future self, Hal shares insight into the importance of self-compassion, dealing with life and preference changes, and how hitting age milestones lead to periods of personal reflection and financial reevaluation. Later, Hal gives listeners his take on annuities and how retirees perceive them. We wrap up another informative episode by looking into the link between perceived wealth and spending before touching on how Hal views success. Tune in to hear more about Hal’s research and how it can give you a stronger and deeper conception of your financial future. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s guest, decision-making expert Hal Hershfield. [0:00:03] Exploring the definition of ‘well-being.’ [0:02:28] Ways that Hal measures well-being. [0:03:46] How financial behaviours and psychological factors impact financial well-being. [0:05:17] Hear how your relationship with your future self affects wealth savings. [0:06:52] Hal talks about how we can get closer to our future selves. [0:10:14] Reflecting on exercises that can help you imagine your future self. [0:13:14] We ask Hal when the present and the future begin. [0:17:01] The link between well-being and your perception of your present and future self. [0:20:32] Distinguishing between your present and future self versus having no distinction. [0:22:18] Whether not having little free time is detrimental to life satisfaction. [0:23:51] Hal discusses whether people would rather have more time or more money. [0:28:06] How financial advisors can help people achieve higher well-being. [0:30:59] How changes in your chronological age can trigger moments of reflection. [0:35:48] Differences in how retirees view lump sum and monthly income streams. <s
S2 E140 · Thu, March 11, 2021
Where do Stock Returns Come From?
Where do stock returns actually come from? The answers to this deceptively simple question might change your investing perspective. We dive into this foundational investing topic after sharing community updates and chatting about our books and TV series of the week. A key concept in understanding where returns come from, we unpack how stock returns are impacted when companies migrate across size and value portfolios. While exploring how migration differently affects value and growth stocks, we also break down why book equity and growth drive capital gains for growth portfolios but not for value stocks. Linked to this, we discuss stock convergence as they relate to growth and value stocks. Looking deeper into the stock returns, we assess research on why valuation changes in asset classes are critical in determining expected returns. We touch on how valuations lead to an unfair depiction of international stock performance before asking: how justified are valuation changes to value and growth stocks? From understanding stock returns, we jump into our mini-planning topic on Canadian work from home tax reductions, followed by our Talking Sense segment. We wrap our conversation by sharing some bad financial advice. Join us to hear what it is, and to learn more about the anatomy of stock returns. Key Points From This Episode: More updates from the community and co-host Benjamin’s battle bot building. [0:00:20] Hear about The Defiant Ones, our TV series of the week. [0:02:50] From The Coaching Habit to Elon Musk , we share our latest book reviews. [0:04:50] Introducing our investing topic: the anatomy of stock returns. [0:10:00] Exploring how changes to a stock type affect value premiums and returns. [0:13:40] Why small stocks tend to have high returns compared with big stocks. [0:17:00] Understanding the value premiums that underpin stock types. [0:18:45] What happens when a stock improves in type. [0:21:32] Factors that lead to price increases in growth and value stocks. [0:25:19] The concept of stock convergence and how convergence impacts value and growth stocks. [0:28:45] Behavioural explanations for the capital gains of value and growth stocks and the role played by stock drift and convergence. [0:32:25] Whether historical returns tell us anything about expected returns. [0:34:15] Why you should always include international stocks when assessing value stock performance. [0:39:18] Using value spread to determine expected value premiums. [0:41:39] We ask the question, “what if the trend in valuation changes to value and growth s
S2 E139 · Thu, March 04, 2021
Prof. Jay Ritter: IPOs, SPACs, and the Hot Issue Market of 2020
We’ve previously compared IPOs to lotteries that are prone to inflated valuations and low returns. Today we welcome “Mr. IPO,” Professor Jay Ritter onto the show for a deeper dive into IPO performance, for his insights into SPACs, and to hear his research into why economic growth doesn’t correlate with stock returns. Early in the episode, Jay unpacks how long-term IPO returns perform against first-day trading. While exploring the role that venture capital plays in tech IPOs, Jay talks about why negative earnings don’t affect tech IPOs in the short-term before sharing how skewness factors tend to impact young companies. Reflecting on how IPOs are usually underpriced, Jay discusses how the interests of companies are not aligned with the interests of IPO underwriters. After looking into IPO allocation, Jay compares the 2020 ‘hot IPO market’ with the internet bubble of the late 90s. Later, we ask Jay about what special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) are and why they’ve exploded in recent years. His answers highlight their investing benefits, risks, and why SPACs might be a better option for companies than IPOs. We examine how SPACs have historically performed and then jump into our next topic; why economic growth isn’t a good indicator that a country is worth investing in. He touches on why returns don’t correlate with economic growth, the place of capital gains and dividend yields when investing abroad, and how innovations in an industry can lead to higher stock returns. We wrap up our conversation by asking Jay for his take on whether the stock market is efficient before hearing how he defines success in his life. Tune in to hear our incredible and informative talk with Jay Ritter. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s guest, finance professor Jay Ritter. [0:00:03] How long-run returns of IPOs perform against the first trading day. [0:03:06] Industry differences in IPO returns and how venture capital affects tech IPOs. [0:03:33] Why it’s not always a bad idea to invest in IPOs. [0:05:22] Whether negative earnings for tech companies affect IPO performance. [0:07:32] Exploring the idea of skewness in IPO valuations and returns. [0:08:56] Jay shares advice on investing in IPOs. [0:11:07] Why IPOs tend to be underpriced. [0:12:44] Whether individuals get IPO allocations compared with hedge funds and brokerages. [0:18:00] The factors that lead to ‘hot IPO markets.’ [0:20:53] How technical innovation is linked to an increase in IPOs. [0:23:32] Whether hot IPO markets tell us anything about future expected returns. [0:26:33] Why 2020 was a hot IPO market and how it compares with the
S2 E138 · Thu, February 25, 2021
Approaching Fixed Income Bonds and Modelling Expected Returns
How we model our expected returns hugely impacts our financial decision-making, with poor models leading us to retire either too early or too late. Today’s episode is a deep dive into two topics: how we model expected returns and how fixed income bonds fit into your portfolio allocation. We open the show by talking about the books and news of the week before unpacking the relationship between bond terms, credit, and fixed income returns. We then explore why it’s easier to forecast the expected returns of bonds than stocks, with insights into how this affects your allocation. After reflecting on the predictive power of yield curves and expected capital appreciation and depreciation, we look into how the forward rate can be used to forecast expected term premiums. Touching on conflicting research, we present our conclusions on how you can determine your expected bond returns while also providing a summary of your risk premiums. We round off the topic by assessing alternatives to fixed income investments. From fixed income, we leap into the world of expected return assumptions and how they can best be modelled. We chat about the dangers of operating from poor expected returns models and discuss the successes and drawbacks of the most commonly used ones. While establishing the predictability underpinning average returns, we explain the limits on using historical returns to forecast expected returns. Later, we open up about PWL Capital’s approach to measuring expected returns. We close off another informative episode by sharing this week’s bad advice and answering left-field questions in our ‘Talking Sense’ segment. Tune in to hear more about the role of fixed income bonds and returns models in your portfolio. Key Points From This Episode: We touch on future guest Jennifer Risher’s book, We Need to Talk . [0:05:34] Hear about the new Bitcoin ETFs and other cryptocurrency news. [0:08:30] Introducing today’s investment topic; fixed income products. [0:12:45] Approaches to building fixed income portfolios and forecasting expected returns. [0:15:31] Exploring the factors that impact fixed income risks and returns. [0:20:50] Using forward rates to predict your fixed income returns. [0:22:31] Conflicting research on the power of forward rates to predict term premiums. [0:24:52] Why forward rates do contain information about expected term premiums. [0:27:51] What Barclays’ intermediate indexes say about fixed income allocation. [0:31:49] The summarised formulas for expected bond returns. [0:34:03] Evidence on why credit spreads have low explanatory power for default rates. [0:35:07] The main takeaways on how we should vie
S2 E137 · Thu, February 18, 2021
David Blanchett: Researching Retirement
Today’s extensive conversation with David Blanchett covers nearly all aspects of retirement planning. As the Head of Retirement Research for Morningstar, David has published extensively on the topic and speaks energetically about how you can best manage your retirement wealth. After a brief digression on Kentucky's Bourbon Chase Relay, we open the episode by discussing how an increase in your pre-retirement income can impact your plan. David shares his insights on what your plan should factor in, including earlier than anticipated retirement, inflation, healthcare costs, and whether you should invest in high-risk options to increase your retirement income. While reflecting on why success rate is a poor metric for weighing your strategy, we then chat about David’s view on flexible retirement spending. A controversial subject for some, we dive into the role of annuities and how different annuities cater to varying retirement scenarios. Later, we touch on how human capital affects portfolio allocation and why it’s challenging to evaluate real estate before hearing David’s take on why financial advice is about helping a client accomplish their goals — and not about beating the market. Tune in for an ever-relevant overview of top retirement planning considerations. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s guest, Morningstar Research Head David Blanchett. [0:00:03] Swapping experiences of running the Bourbon Chase Relay. [0:02:34] How rising pre-retirement income impacts your ability to retire comfortably. [0:04:19] Rules of thumb in how you should approach salary increases. [0:05:21] Why people end up retiring earlier than they expected to. [0:06:47] What percentage of working income retirees should aim to replace. [0:08:06] Whether your retirement plan should cover inflation and healthcare costs. [0:08:59] Using worst-case scenarios to explain the consequences of risky investing. [0:11:52] Why success rate can be a poor metric for retirement planning. [0:13:41] Gauging your minimum and maximum levels of retirement comfort. [0:14:50] David’s advice on implementing a flexible retirement spending strategy. [0:17:23] Exploring the role that annuities play in a retirement portfolio. [0:18:32] How the alpha of your portfolio can be equivalent to annuity benefits. [0:20:11] Conflicts in how financial advisors help you allocate for your retirement. [0:23:06] Further insights into the factors behind whether you should get an annuity. [0:24:47] Why pension benefits have a higher value than most are aware of. [0:28:03]</st
S2 E136 · Thu, February 11, 2021
Chasing Top Fund Managers
When you see funds performing monumentally well, you may feel regretful for not investing in them earlier. There is, however, a long history of funds that skyrocketed only to have major falls from grace a brief period after. The bulk of today’s episode is spent exploring this idea in the portfolio topic section but before getting into that, we kick the show off with some updates. We begin by talking about the GameStop short and whether this casts any new light on the concept of market efficiency. From there, we take a look at some recent news, particularly one story about the meteoric growth of New York-based investment managers ARK Invest, who recently hit $50B in assets under management up from $3B this time last year. This story acts as a great segue into the portfolio topic where Ben traces a history of funds that performed colossally well for a brief period but then plummeted thereafter. These funds were under the direction of ‘star’ fund managers with a focus on investing in tech disruptors. The discussion acts as a cautionary tale about overpaying for growth leading to poor realized returns. For the planning topic, we continue to shine a light on the ‘Talking Cents’ card game, a financial literacy outreach strategy created by The University of Chicago Financial Education Initiative. We invite the director of the Financial Education Initiative, Rebecca Maxcy, onto the show to speak about some of the thinking around this project and then discuss a few of the questions posed by the cards ourselves. Tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: This week’s updates: Gerard O’Reilly on The Long View podcast and more. [0:00:25.3] Exploring the theme of questioning our beliefs with this week’s book. [0:03:15.3] News: What does the GameStop short mean for market efficiency? [0:06:10.3] More news: The meteoric growth of the investment managers ARK Invest. [0:12:15.3] Portfolio topic: Why funds with star managers have skyrocketed and subsequently plummeted. [0:15:13.3] Why overpaying for growth leading to poor returns is relevant to indexes too. [0:31:31.3] Do fund returns mean revert? Questions of luck and skill in fund management. [0:39:00.3] Planning topic: Rebecca Maxcy speaks about the ‘Talking Cents’ initiative. [0:45:41.3] Other financial education tools developed by the Financial Education Initiative. [0:52:51.3] Discussing Talking Cents questions about outsourcing financial planning and more. [0:55:09.3] Bad advice of the week: Michelle Schneider’s investing resources. [0:58:33.3]
S2 E135 · Thu, February 04, 2021
William Bengen: The 5% Rule for Retirement Spending
At a time when the financial community provided inconsistent retirement advice, the 4% withdrawal rate was a data-backed strategy that revolutionized retirement planning. Today we speak with William Bengen, a literal rocket scientist and the influential personal advisor who popularised the 4% withdrawal rate, A.K.A, the 4% rule. After exploring what the 4% rule entails and the impact that it had on the financial industry, we talk about updates that William has made to his theory since first publishing about it in 1994. We then unpack more of the rule, talking about its conservative nature, whether young retirees should adhere to it, and if there are situations where you should break the rule. Reflecting on criticisms of the 4% rule, we ask William about how it fits with the notion of dynamic spending. His answers highlight his approach in helping his clients to maintain the same lifestyle that they have when they enter retirement. Later, we touch on tips to keep track of your expenses, whether you should taper your retirement income, the role of bonds and small-cap stocks in your portfolio, and William’s view that financial planning should be fee and not commission-based. We wrap up by discussing William’s career and how he defines success for himself. For more insights into the 4% rule from the man who created it, tune in to hear our incredible conversation with William Bengen. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s guest, financial advisor and 4% rule creator William Bengen. [0:00:15] Exploring William’s original 1994 research that led to the 4% rule. [0:03:58] Hear why the 4% rule has been so impactful to the world of financial planning. [0:05:06] William shares details about the ‘hate mail’ his findings inspired. [0:06:07] Why William updated his theory to include small-cap stocks. [0:07:43] William’s view that you might be able to get away with withdrawal rates that are higher than 4.5%. [0:08:26] Whether young retirees should adhere to the 4% rule. [0:11:48] The scenarios that break the 4% rule. [0:13:02] How the 4% rule applies in countries outside of Canada and the US. [0:13:55] Insights into how much you should be spending in your retirement. [0:15:28] What your triggers should be if you want to deviate from the 4% rule. [0:17:45] William’s views on dynamic spending. [0:20:09] Tips on keeping track of your expenses and William’s throughs on fixed annuities. [0:21:20] Whether you should taper your retirement income. [0:22:54] The role of bonds versus small-cap stocks in your retirement portfolio. [0:24:04] <li
S2 E134 · Thu, January 28, 2021
The IPO Lottery, Planning for Wellness, and Talking Cents
Skewed Factor IPO Investing and Financial Well-being Episode 134: Show Notes. Many IPOs start with a bang, resulting in high first-day closing prices that attract retail investors. Today we unpack new and established research to explore how the hottest IPOs compare with average market returns. We open our conversation by first sharing community updates and details about the book and news of the week. After reflecting on how 2020 was one of the biggest IPO years since 2000, we talk about why IPOs tend to release in waves. We then chat about where IPO allocation usually goes and why most investors aren’t given access to huge early returns. A key insight this episode, we dive into how retail investors impact IPO pricing and why IPO buy and hold returns often trail the market. Following this, we discuss the factors that skew IPO prices, why IPOs resemble lotteries, and whether there is an optimal model for when companies make an IPO. From IPOs we jump into our planning topic on well-being and behavioural coaching. We start by looking into the differences between financial well-being and funded contentment. Linked to this, we talk about other forms of capital that range from human and social capital to temporal capital. We examine the factors that impact your well-being before touching on why you should make decisions while considering all your forms of capital. Later, we debut a new feature and then offer our bad advice of the week. Tune in for another informative conversation on rational investing. Key Points From This Episode: From building battlebots to what they’ve been watching, hosts Benjamin and Cameron catch-up with listeners. [0:00:23] Rational Reminder community updates and added features. [0:02:53] Being a generalist over a specialist? Hear about the book of the week. [0:06:23] Hear our news roundup for the week. [0:09:14] Introducing today’s portfolio topic: investing in IPOs. [0:15:30] Exploring IPO waves, pricing, and why only high-value investors are given IPO offerings. [0:19:54] How institutions and retail investors impact IPO pricing. [0:23:00] Examining the historical buy and hold returns for IPO stocks. [0:25:37] Why IPO stocks might be the “worst of all worlds.” [0:29:31] Research that shows why IPOs are like lotteries. [0:30:48] How ‘skewness factors’ hype up the value of IPOs. [0:34:01] Why waves of companies tend to make IPOs near the same time. [0:37:11] Benjamin summarizes his arguments for and against IPOs. [0:42:54] Introducing today’s planning topic: your well-being. <
S2 E133 · Thu, January 21, 2021
Adriana Robertson: "Passive" Investing, and What Matters to Investors
The terms passive investing and index investing are often intertwined, but they are not exactly the same thing. Today’s guest is Adriana Robertson, the Honourable Justice Frank Iacobucci Chair in Capital Markets Regulation and an associate professor of Law and Finance at the University of Toronto Faculty of Law and Rotman School of Management. Adriana is interested in index investing and, in this episode, we hear her views on whether or not index investing is passive. Hear facts from her paper on the S&P 500 Index fund specifically, and all of the reasons that it's not passive, as well as some of the issues that are potentially arising from the creation of so many indexes or so-called passive investments. A more recent paper by Adriana, published in The Journal of Finance , surveyed a representative sample of U.S. individual investors about how well leading academic theories describe their financial beliefs and decisions, and Adriana shares the differences in something like value growth from an academic perspective versus a real-world perspective. Find out how investors can go about evaluating the performance of their portfolios and what they should be looking for when deciding which index fund to invest in, as well as why index funds aren’t a meaningful category anyway, factors from Adriana’s surveys that might influence investor’s equity allocation, and the trend towards indexing and whether it will overtake active portfolios. Tune in today for all this and more! Key Points From This Episode: Whether or not it’s sensible to call the S&P 500 Index fund a passive investment. [0:03:20] How discretion affects the S&P 500 Index constituents and performance. [0:04:14] Adriana reflects on Tesla joining the S&P 500 Index and the speculation there. [0:04:49] Adriana’s view of benchmarking and comparing other investments to the S&P 500. [0:05:34] Why calling it rules-based investing rather than passive depends on the index. [0:07:35] How investors can go about evaluating the performance of their portfolios. [0:04:14] Why Adriana believes there are so many indexes and how they differ. [0:09:29] Value growth from an academic perspective versus a real-world perspective. [0:11:28] Why methodology differences between indices aren’t necessarily well-documented. [0:13:14] The marketing strategies involved in fund managers creating affiliated versus bespoke indices. [0:14:50] Common differences in index fund tracking and one-to-one mapping. [0:15:45] What investors should be looking for when evaluating which index fund to invest in. [0:16:53] Tilting towards factors versus using the market cap as the de facto benchmark. [0:18:19] Why Adriana’s advice is to compare an investment to the other options available. [0:20:11] Ex-ante versus ex-post and whether funds choosing a benchmark ex-post to inflate
S2 E132 · Thu, January 14, 2021
Cullen Roche: Understanding the Modern Monetary System
With so many moving parts, it’s difficult to develop a clear view of the US monetary system. Today we speak with Pragmatic Capitalism author and Founder of Orcam Financial Group Cullen Roche, leveraging his expertise to build a comprehensive understanding of the monetary system. We open our interview with Cullen by asking him the deceptively simple question, “what is money?” We then explore where money comes from, the role of the central bank in securing our money supply, and why poor capitalization restrains banks. After discussing where the value of money derives from, Cullen shares his insights on how decentralized digital currencies are challenged by their lack of flexibility and credit options. We talk more about the role of central banks before diving into quantitative easing; what it is, why it’s used, and how interest rates impact its usage. Following this, Cullen unpacks whether quantitative easing leads to asset inflation along with the influence that stimulus policies have on inflation. Reflecting on the relationship between the Federal Reserve and US Treasury, Cullen shows why the US government is in no danger of becoming insolvent. We touch on the dollar’s purchasing power, Cullen’s view that time really is money, the role of gold in your portfolio, and why Cullen is such a big proponent of global investing. We wrap up our informative discussion by asking Cullen how he defines success in his life. Tune in to benefit from Cullen’s clever and concise explanation of our modern economic system. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s episode featuring Cullen Roche. [0:00:15] We open our interview with Cullen asking the question, “What is money?” [0:03:50] Exploring where money comes from and the role of banks in ensuring money supply. [0:06:14] The factors that constrain a bank’s lending ability. [0:09:26] Cullen unpacks where the value of money comes from. [0:12:36] Economic constraints posed by decentralized digital currencies. [0:15:08] What central banks are and why they’re such good ideas. [0:20:46] Cullen explains what bank reserves are. [0:25:00] How quantitative easing tries to stimulate the economy. [0:25:45] Why quantitative easing isn’t the same as printing money. [0:30:01] Cullen evaluates the success of quantitative easing as a policy tool. [0:33:19] Whether quantitative easing leads to asset inflation. [0:33:57] The impact that stimulus policies have on inflation. [0:39:38] The relationship between the US Federal Reserve and Treasury. [0:43:04] Why the US government will most likely never go insolven
S2 E131 · Thu, January 07, 2021
David Booth: The First Index Fund, Competing Fiercely, and Keeping it Simple
At its core, managing wealth is about finding the best solutions for your clients. As he mentions in today’s discussion with him, this sentiment has guided David Booth’s storied career. As the Co-Founder and Executive Chairman of Dimensional Fund Advisors, David’s career is so illustrious that he’s been called the father of evidence-based investment products. We open our conversation by exploring David’s career, beginning with his job as a shoe salesman in Kansas to developing the first index fund. We ask David if he had been able to foresee the power that “geeks” would have over the asset management business. His answers highlight how immature the industry was when he founded Dimensional Fund Advisors and how they had to first convince people before selling them on small cap funds. Reflecting on his early successes and challenges, David opens up about how his clients reacted when small caps underperformed. A key theme this episode, David emphasizes the importance of making decisions that are grounded in academic research. We then dive into several topics ranging from David’s views on value portfolios to the stroke of luck that led Dimensional to open their products to financial advisors. After chatting about why Dimensional is now entering the ETF space, David shares his take on direct indexing and why he still favors simplicity over complexity. Near the end of the episode, we discuss how David built his company culture, how luck factored into his life, and how he defines success. An incredible conversation that touches on pivotal moments in the history of financial services, tune for more insights into the life and work of David Booth. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s guest, Dimensional Fund Advisor Co-Founder David Booth. [0:00:14] David talks about how his background informed his professional career. [0:03:57] Hear about David’s role in developing one of the first index funds. [0:06:13] Why David’s work creating index funds for Wells Fargo came to a close. [0:07:28] Exploring the origins of Dimensional Fund Advisors. [0:10:24] How David saw the future of his industry when he started Dimensional and how they created the first small cap funds. [0:15:18] The reaction from David’s early clients when small caps underperformed. [0:27:04] David recalls the “borderline character assassination” that he faced when pushing for small caps. [0:24:16] How and why Dimensional first added value portfolios. [0:26:03] Unpacking David’s view that values struggle relative to growth. [0:28:37] The recent lessons that Dimensional has learned about value relative to growth stocks. [0:33:17] What it would take for Dimens
S2 E130 · Thu, December 24, 2020
A Year In Review
For this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we review our year by playing back and discussing a collection of the most impactful moments of the show from 2020. This has been a drastic year filled with many learnings for us all, and in today’s show, we cover topics of happiness, decision making, dealing with uncertainty, and the connection that financial planning and investing have to all of this. We collect some amazing gems of wisdom from guests like Annie Duke, Ken French, Michael Kitces, Patricia Lovett-Reid, and a whole lot more, whittling down an original list of over one hundred of this year’s finest moments to a collection of just 45. The show starts out exploring themes of the connection between wealth and happiness, keeping cool in stressful times, and the transformations that crises kickstart. From there, we talk about the importance of models and systems for informing investing and behaviour in general, and the idea that unexpected outcomes swamp expected ones in the short term. We also look at what market history has to say about staying in your seat rather than market timing when things look bleak. Next up, we cover themes of the value of a flexible approach to retirement spending, how families should think about financial planning, whether 60/40 portfolios are dead, and why stock market returns in the U.S. are higher under Democratic presidents. Moving onto the subject of decision making, we explore some of our guests’ thoughts on evaluating decisions, outcomes bias and the role of luck, and more. We also consider the topic of human capital, how it relates to investing, and what we should really be spending our time on. The subject of the convergence of brokerage firms and financial advisors then leads to a great exploration of the role of financial advisors. We wrap up with some extra special perspectives on how optimal financial planning should be geared around the person that you want to be rather than maximizing wealth for the sake of it. Tune in today for an amazing overview of the year and to hear all the ways we have changed and grown thanks to our incredible guests. Key Points From This Episode: Looking back on the year: Pandemic adjustments and how this podcast has grown. [0:00:15] Shoutouts and Cameron’s method of putting past clips together for today’s show. [0:06:20] Brian Portnoy and Andrew Hallam on wealth and happiness. [0:09:15] Dealing with stress and volatility with Dr. Moira Somers and Dave Goetsch. [0:13:48] Craig Alexander on market volatility and Jim Stanford on crisis and revolution. [0:18:27] Dave Goetsch and Greg Zuckerman on the benefit of models and systems. [0:23:11] The role of unexpected returns in outcomes and how to deal with this. [0:27:04] Small and value stocks relative to the market with Dr. William Bernstein. [0:33:09] Ken French and Cliff Asness on whether ‘this time is different’. [0:3
S2 E129 · Thu, December 17, 2020
Five Factor Investing with ETFs
After months of research, number-crunching, and receiving listener requests on the subject, today’s episode is devoted to introducing our new model ETF portfolios — which promise to offer a smoother ride to getting reliable returns. We open our conversation with a financial news roundup and by touching on our book of the week. We then dive into the theory behind our model by first exploring how market assets are priced. We discuss historical views on asset pricing models before looking at what academia has done to overcome challenges to the idea of market efficiency. Host Benjamin Felix methodically shows how our model addresses the five systematic risk factors that are included in the Fama-French Five-Factor Model. From emerging markets to stock size, we share insights into what our model accounts for and how this should impact your portfolio distribution and premium expectations. After reflecting on how factor-loaded indexes get higher returns without extra risk, we talk about the ETFs that we use for factor exposure, as well as how you can apply our findings to your portfolio. We round-off today’s show by chatting about the latest bad financial advice. Tune in to hear more about our findings in this, our last episode of 2020. Key Points From This Episode: We share community and listener feedback and what you can expect from the show in 2021. [0:00:15] Hear about The Almanack of Naval Ravikant , our book of the week. [0:04:35] Relooking at the drive towards personalized portfolios. [0:07:28] Insights into S&P 500 stocks having a greater dividend yield than the US Treasury. [0:08:52] How ETFs are coming to dominate Wall Street. [0:09:56] Dying without a will; exploring the case of Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh. [0:11:05] Introducing today’s portfolio topic — our new model portfolios, and why index funds make sense. [0:12:29] The risks that inform how the market prices assets and your expected returns. [0:18:00] How academics have addressed the joint hypothesis and the brilliance of the Fama-French Five-Factor Model. [0:22:18] The predictive power of the Fama-French Five-Factor Model. [0:30:25] Challenges to the Fama-French Model, what it accounts for, and how links to our new model portfolios. [0:31:20] How our model weighs the value of different markets and stock sizes. [0:36:52] Comparing the returns of a factor-loaded index with the US total market index. [0:40:44] Answering the question — what’s special about dividend growth investing? [0:42:15] The role of persistence in being a factor-led investor. [0:45:50] <li
S2 E128 · Thu, December 10, 2020
Morgan Housel: The Psychology of Money
As author and financial expert Morgan Housel explains this episode, “people don't make financial decisions on a spreadsheet. They make financial decisions at the dinner table.” Today we chat to Morgan about his key insights into financial decision-making — many of which are captured in his book, The Psychology of Money . Our conversation opens with an exploration of how investing success has less to do with what you know and more to do with how you manage your behaviour. We then look into the dangers of emulating top investors and how luck can fuel success. Reflecting the theme that people invest according to their unique circumstances, Morgan shares why he prioritizes endurance as an investor by minimizing his debt and having high cash reserves. After hearing his take on debt and whether young people should use leverage, we dive into how financial expectations impact investing and the importance of deciding what ‘enough’ means to you. We discuss the virtues of saving like a pessimist and investing like an optimist before looking into the role that financial advisors play in guiding their clients. In the latter part of the end of the episode, Morgan touches on active versus passive investing, the purpose that bonds serve in your portfolio, his top lesson from 2020, and why he’s empathetic toward people who sell their portfolios during a downturn. Throughout our discussion, Morgan shares his clear understanding of how our psychology affects our relationship to money. Tune in and benefit from his incredible perspective. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s guest, financial author Morgan Housel. [0:00:15] Morgan shares his view that succeeding in investing has little to do with how you behave. [0:02:31] Hear about the problems that can arise from trying to emulate top investors. [0:05:02] Exploring the impact of luck on your success. [0:07:37] The differences between being conservative and having a margin of safety. [0:08:35] Insights into Morgan’s personal investing strategy. [0:09:48] Morgan’s thoughts on leverage and how debt impacts behaviour and peace of mind. [0:10:31] Stepping off the hedonic treadmill and the importance of defining your financial expectations. [0:14:02] The link between money, independence, and having a high quality of life. [0:16:44] What it means to be wealthy and what motivates the drive to be rich. [0:19:18] Morgan’s advice to save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist. [0:21:34] Why no one makes perfectly rational investing decisions. [0:23:54] The role of financial advisors in guiding clients towards their investing decisions
S2 E127 · Thu, December 03, 2020
Fooled by Dividends, and the Future of Financial Planning Research
There is a sharp divide between those who invest in dividend-paying stocks and those who don’t. Underpinning this is the question of whether dividends are relevant to the evaluation of shares. Today we answer this question by digging into the data and parsing the maths before exploring what the future of financial planning looks like. But first, we open our episode with news from the Rational Reminder community — including the fact that we just passed one million podcast downloads. We then touch on lessons from Seth Godin’s new inspiring book, along with the latest from the financial world. Following this, we dive into a discussion on dividend stocks. We begin by unpacking the assumptions behind Miller and Modigliani’s theory of dividend irrelevance. Host Benjamin Felix presents a case study and applies the Fama-French Model to explain differences in returns on dividend portfolios and if dividends truly affect share valuation. After sharing our practical takeaways from Benjamin’s analysis, we move onto our financial planning topic for the week. From technology to retirement decumulation and demographics, we discuss the five key areas which will most impact the future of financial planning. We then wrap up another informative episode with the bad financial advice for the week. Tune in for more insights into the role of dividend stocks and the future of financial planning. Key Points From This Episode: Community news, Benjamin’s 3D printing project, and celebrating our 1 millionth download. [0:00:15] Drawing insights from a recent Ted Seides-Shane Parrish interview. [0:03:44] Reflecting on Seth Godin’s latest book, Practice: Shipping Creative Work . [0:06:44] How our culture overvalues outcomes while neglecting the creative process. [0:07:46] Why having meals delivered to you helps to limit decision fatigue. [0:08:28] Hear about the new TFSA limits and Tesla’s addition to the S&P 500. [0:09:25] Exploring whether size affects premium in the US versus elsewhere. [0:12:28] Why long-only investors may overweight small caps. [0:15:44] How US junk stocks impact value and their place in your portfolio. [0:16:18] Introducing today’s portfolio topic; should you invest in dividend stocks? [0:17:53] Unpacking the assumptions behind Miller and Modigliani’s theory of dividend irrelevance. [0:18:45] Host Benjamin Felix creates a case study to show Miller and Modigliani’s theory in action. [0:22:38] Why Miller and Modigliani’s math and idea of financing are based on poor assumptions. [0:26:24] The predictive power and limits of frameworks like the Fama-French 5-Factor Model.
S2 E126 · Thu, November 26, 2020
Dr. Brian Portnoy and Josh Brown: Beyond the Orthodoxy - How Financial Pros Invest
Dr. Brian Portnoy and Josh Brown’s book How I Invest My Money , captures the stories and investment strategies of 25 top financial advisors. The book highlights that while there are established dogmas that tell you how and why you ought to invest, there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ way to invest. Today we speak with Brian and Josh about the key insights that we can derive from their work. We open our conversation by exploring how they conceived and developed their book before talking about why fully rational investing is a myth. After diving into how we allocate money to solve our unique needs, Brian and Josh share how people use their portfolios to express themselves. We then discuss common investing themes in the book, including how most advisors have an aversion to debt, and how their experiences have guided their strategies and outlooks. From why we should place more value on social and human capital, we look into why financial planning has a profound impact on how you manage your investments. We touch on direct indexing, the relationship between money and happiness, and the unexpected yet incredible perspectives that came from giving advisors a license to tell their stories. Near the end of the episode, Brian and Josh reflect on how their book might have changed their views and how their work fits into their visions for the financial industry. Tune in to hear more on the usually secretive topic of how financial advisors invest their money. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing Brian Portnoy and Josh Brown, authors of How I Invest My Money . [0:0:15] Why we invest and reflections on commentary made by the Rational Reminder community. [0:02:58] Josh shares his motivations for being transparent on where and how he invests. [0:05:25] Hear about the genesis and subsequent development of Brian and Josh’s book. [0:07:19] The common needs that individual investors have beyond getting a return. [0:10:18] How the uniqueness of everyone’s life affects their investing decisions. [0:13:09] Why there is no strict ‘right way’ to invest — invest according to what’s right for you. [0:14:35] ESG investment and seeing your portfolio as a form of expression. [0:17:21] Exploring common investment themes that arise in Josh and Brian’s book. [0:20:07] How Brian and Josh developed their personal investing outlooks. [0:21:44] Why we should place more value in human and social capital. [0:25:16] Brian expands on why we should invest in human and social capital. [0:28:35] The importance of financial planning in managing both your life and investments. [0:31:50] Answering
S2 E125 · Thu, November 19, 2020
(Rationally) Investing in Technological Revolutions, Human Capital, and Asset Allocation
On today’s show, we explore rational explanations for pricing bubbles, how the concept of human capital relates to financial decisions, and a whole lot more! We kick things off with a discussion of Ashley Whillans’ book Time Smart, which explores proven strategies for improving your ‘time affluence’. Diving into this week’s portfolio topic, we use a previous discussion about Carlota Perez’s model for technological revolutions as a springboard to introduce Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi’s mathematical arguments that present a rational explanation for pricing bubbles. Perez maintains that prices get bid up too high during technological revolutions due to ‘frenzy’ but we unpack two papers by Pastor and Veronesi where they argue differently, drawing on the concepts of uncertainty and discount rates. From there, we dive into the relationship between human capital, life insurance and asset allocation for our planning topic. We provide some definitions for the term ‘human capital’ and discuss how it differs from other forms of capital. A key idea we explore here is that the more risky your human capital is, the less life insurance you should take out. Along with this, you’ll hear a few quick suggestions for how you should approach life insurance and bonds depending on age, financial wealth, risk aversion, and other factors. Tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: Talking COVID, next week’s guests and Rational Reminder Community updates. [0:0:18] Book of the week: Rethinking conventional notions of time well spent in Time Smart . [0:04:07] News updates: Stories about Bitcoin, marijuana stocks, and more. [0:08:56] Portfolio Topic: Whether pricing bubbles are caused by rational behaviour. [0:14:19] Unpacking Pastor and Veronesi’s paper connecting uncertainty to high prices. [0:18:25] Pricing bubbles as caused by discount rates; a second Pastor and Veronesi paper. [0:27:48] ‘IPO waves’ connected to the bubble discussion in a third Pastor and Veronesi paper. [0:37:58] Planning topic: How the concept of human capital relates to financial decisions. [0:44:45] The importance of considering asset allocation decisions and life insurance needs together. [0:54:46] Bad advice of the week: ‘The Market’s Invisible Guardrails Are Missing’. [1:01:16]
S2 E124 · Thu, November 12, 2020
Prof. Lubos Pastor: Equilibrium Models vs. Intuition
Professor Lubos Pastor’s brilliant and varied research has been consistently referenced on this podcast. From how politics impacts stock returns to measuring the skill of active fund managers, Lubos joins us today as we explore some of the ‘greatest hits’ of his research. With Lubos’s position on the board of the Slovakian Central bank, we ask him about how quantitative easing can be used to strengthen the economy. His answers highlight how easing can prop up asset prices and raise inflation — and why inflation is the “least bad” option to deal with post-pandemic debt. We then discuss Lubos’s research on how political cycles affect stock returns and why stock returns are higher when a Democrat is in the White House. After diving into how stock prices respond to political uncertainty, we look at why green assets tend to generate higher stock prices but low expected returns. While talking about his research on measuring volatility, Lubos argues against the conventional wisdom that stocks are stable, in the long run. We touch on how this can affect your retirement asset allocation before chatting about whether young people should use leverage. With so many people moving from active to passive and index fund investing, we analyze the relationship between the scale of active funds and the skill of active managers. Near the end of the episode, we talk about the effect that market-wide liquidity has on stock prices and why you cannot diversify away from liquidity risk. Our conversation with Lubos is filled with insights, each of which could inspire hours worth of discussion. Tune in to hear more from our discussion with Professor Lubos Pastor. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing Professor of Finance and today’s guest, Lubos Pastor. [0:0:15] The role of central banks and the goal of quantitative easing. [0:05:06] Whether quantitative easing props up asset prices. [0:07:58] Exploring different findings on quantitative easing by central banks and academics. [0:08:51] Why inflation may be the “least bad” option to deal with post-pandemic debt. [0:10:27] How increased inflation helps shift the burden of debt from those who are most impacted by lockdowns. [0:11:17] Lubos explains the relationship between political cycles and stock returns. [0:13:39] Hear how political uncertainty affects stock returns. [0:18:46] Why green assets tend to generate higher stock prices and low expected returns. [0:20:38] What factors would cause green assets to perform well, and how long this might last. [0:25:22] The link between sustainable investing and firms pushing to turn green. [0:27:48] Dispersions among ESG rating organizations and issu
S2 E123 · Thu, November 05, 2020
(Irrationally) Investing in Technological Revolutions, Household CFO Job Analysis, and Learning to Sell Mutual Funds
As counter-intuitive as it may seem, most of the companies that push us into the next technological revolution deliver poor investment returns. Today we look at current and historical data to show why this is the case but first, we chat about the top financial news of the week. Borrowing heavily from Carlota Perez’s Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital , we then explore how the links between tech revolutions and investing adhere to a consistent model. Following this model, we discuss how our current information-led revolution is as impactful as revolutions experienced in previous generations. We touch on the factors that lead to innovation, historical perspectives of technology companies, and the many investing phases resulting from tech revolutions. Despite making for poor returns, we talk about why the frenzy of investing that accompanies innovation is good for that industry and leads to a golden age of tech adoption and growth. A key takeaway, we dive into how investors are paying too much for the expected growth of new companies and that there is little to no link between massive growth and high stock returns. From guessing the next IPO winner, we move to our planning topic of the week — how to be a successful household CFO. We close this episode with our bad financial advice of the week. There’s a lot of pressure in the market to invest in tech. Despite that, tune in to hear why you shouldn’t invest in the next technological revolution. Key Points From This Episode: Hear about host Benjamin Felix’s burgeoning 3D printing addiction. [0:0:06] Sharing listener feedback and messages from the Rational Reminder community. [0:02:02] Robinhood and why users are treated as the product, not the customer. [0:04:33] News on what might be the largest cash raise in IPO history. [0:07:25] How most ETF assets are in products that were launched prior to 2015. [0:09:24] Benjamin shares details about his project exploring the value of investing in tech revolutions. [0:11:05] Modelling the consistent sequences that technological revolutions follow. [0:14:38] Why current tech revolutions are as powerful as those experienced in previous generations. [0:16:55] Which common factors lead to tech revolutions. [0:18:31] Looking at historical examples of innovations and the performance of tech companies. [0:20:35] Why innovative big companies become unable to lead the next tech revolution. [0:23:18] How explosive growth and a frenzy of investment is common during early tech breakthroughs. [0:29:30] Signs that our current tech bubble has begun to pop. [0:34:45] The benefi
S2 E122 · Thu, October 29, 2020
Prof. Moshe Milevsky: Solving the Retirement Equation
There are seven equations that, if understood, will put you in the best possible position to tackle your retirement plan. Today we speak with business professor Moshe Milevsky about these equations, which he’s written extensively about in his best-selling book, The 7 Most Important Equations for Your Retirement . After introducing Moshe, we dive straight into the first equation that maps out the longevity of your money. Following this, we talk about determining how long you will live by comparing your biological and chronological ages. Regarding the third equation, Moshe provides his insights into evaluating the usefulness of an annuity plan, and at what age they become relevant to you. We then chat about what annuity plans are offered in Canada versus elsewhere and why people don’t want to buy annuities during a bull market. Despite the popularity of the ‘4% spending rule’ — which we also unpack — Moshe discusses the importance of being adaptable with your retirement spending rates. Reflecting on the key theme of another of his books, we explore the question of whether people are stocks or bonds. Moshe shares some investing advice for younger listeners and touches on what the ideal mix of stocks, bonds, and human capital looks like. For the last equation, we look into the impact of probability frameworks and why financial advisors need to understand the math behind retirement plan probabilities to make meaningful recommendations. Throughout our discussion, Moshe presents coherent answers and pragmatic advice. Tune in and learn more about the equations needed to build the best possible retirement plan. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s guest, Professor Moshe Milevsky, and his work. [0:0:15] Exploring Moshe’s book, The 7 Most Important Equations for Your Retirement . [0:02:57] Mapping the longevity of your money according to Moshe’s ‘Fibonacci Equation.’ [0:03:25] Determining how long you will live when planning your retirement funds. [0:04:37] Understanding the difference between your biological and chronological age. [0:06:22] A challenge to our retirement system; it’s based on chronological and not biological age. [0:08:45] Introducing the concept of annuities and how they can be valued. [0:10:03] Striking a balance with your annuity plan and answering — “How much is too much?” [0:11:42] Moshe shares his thoughts on how much insurance companies factor in biological age. [0:14:04] Ideas on using your biological age to your advantage. [0:15:35] Why you probably shouldn’t even consider getting an annuity until you’re 60. [0:17:16] Canadian annuity plans versus elsewhere; “The shelf feels
S2 E121 · Thu, October 22, 2020
Day Trading and Overconfidence
Despite the mountain of evidence against it, day trading is thriving. Today we dive into the research and explore why the practice is alive and well before answering the question — “Can too much confidence lose you money?” After touching on investing news, listener feedback, our books of the week, and our take on the ‘Ultimate Ned Debate,’ we open our discussion on day trading. In our conversation, we look at the results of numerous papers on the topic, none of which present-day trading as sound financial practice. We shed light on the reasons that people day trade, the performance differences between traders, what a day trader’s learning process looks like, stock-picking strategies, and why it’s impossible, except in outlier cases, to earn a living as a day trader. As we unpack the literature, we discuss key insights on the impact of day trading on the financial world. From one investing sin to another, we talk about how overconfidence can harm your investment performance. We balance the positives and negatives of having confidence, highlighting how too much confidence can lead to poor decision-making and a false sense of how much you know. Tune in to hear some of the latest investing news and to learn more about the pitfalls of day trading and overconfidence. Key Points From This Episode: Acknowledging the 33rd anniversary of Black Monday. [0:01:08] How the podcast is faring against other podcasts within the investing category. [0:02:07] News on past and upcoming episodes and responding to listener feedback. [0:04:09] From technological revolutions to starting with a ‘why’, we explore the books of the week. [0:07:23] Top news story; Fidelity Magellan Fund is moving to an ETF format. [0:12:06] Weighing in on the “Ultimate Nerd Debate” on the value and risks of small-cap allocation. [0:14:45] Why performance doesn’t change when you invest in a fund using a different currency. [0:19:12] Introducing today’s portfolio and planning topics — day trading and overconfidence. [0:21:56] Examining the data sets and papers that assess the effectiveness of day trading. [0:23:48] Analyzing two competing theories that explain the behaviour of day trading. [0:25:57] Attributing a portion of all portfolio return losses to the effects of day trading. [0:30:39] Comparing the performance of the best and worst day traders. [0:33:52] Why it might be impossible for you to earn a living as a day trader. [0:36:58] Applying Michael Mauboussin’s ‘Paradox of Skill’ to day trading. [0:39:50] Three reasons why people still day trade, despite evidence that they make for
S2 E120 · Thu, October 15, 2020
Annie Duke: How to Decide
Good decision-making is a fundamental part of achieving our goals, so getting better at it would be in anybody’s best interest. Here to talk about making better decisions is Annie Duke, expert poker player and author of How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Decisions, and Thinking in Bets. Annie starts by defining what a good decision should look like and some of the steps involved. From there, we explore the idea of how to accommodate the fact that our preferences change and we sometimes do not even know what they are in our decision-making processes. Uncertainty is a big part of what makes future choices difficult, and Annie talks about how it is caused by either luck or ignorance, the latter of which we can control, thereby reducing uncertainty as much as possible. Another big theme today how to know which decisions to spend time on and which not to. We waste a lot of time on choices that do not affect our happiness much, and on the other end of the scale, big choices often are hard because the different outcomes they present look quite similar. Annie gives us a few tools to deal with both scenarios. Toward the end, Annie dives deeper into what a good decision involves, talking about the need to step outside our beliefs by building an evidentiary record of the process which involves outside input. Tune in for a fascinating conversation that will help you get better at choosing. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing today’s guest, Annie Duke, and her work on decision-making. [0:00:16.3] The definition of a good decision and the steps involved in making one. [0:02:51.3] Examining probabilities of potential choices and the beliefs informing the examination. [0:05:00.3] Factoring in the possibility of preferences changing while making decisions. [0:08:56.3] Beliefs as formed by actions, and how to not see a change in course as failure. [0:13:30.3] When our preferences are clear and when they are not. [0:15:00.3] Dealing two kinds of uncertainty, one based on luck and the other on ignorance. [0:16:39.3] How to know how much time to spend on making decisions, and the need to record the process. [0:20:49.3] Using the ‘happiness test’ to judge decisions and free up time for the important ones. [0:27:46.3] Choosing ‘quittable’ things to gather information for more binding decisions. [0:30:03.3] Doing things in parallel so you don’t have to make one choice. [0:31:57.3] Understanding that choices become hard when they present similar outcomes, thus that it is not sensible to deliberate too long. [0:32:32.3] How to speed up the harder decisions; the ‘only option test’. <s
S2 E119 · Thu, October 08, 2020
The Stock Market vs. Elections, and Incentives in Financial Planning
Thank you for tuning in to this episode of the Rational Reminder. We start this show with some great news about the comment section and our migration to Discourse. Having an open dialogue has always been crucial for us—it has even led to our latest hire—so we felt it was time to add more structure to it. We then talk about mortgage rates and why so many people do not know that it is possible to negotiate them down even further. There is often a big gap between what is publicly advertised and what you can actually get, so it’s worth shopping around. Following this, we touch on IPOs, SPACs, and why some are saying it is similar to 1999. In the heart of this discussion, we unpack the relationship between the US election and stock market returns. If you are like Ben, perhaps you thought there is not much material difference, and while over the short-term there is not, the election cycle data is truly astonishing. We find out the fascinating explanation of why there are higher excess returns under Democratic leadership, and it is probably not what you think! Moving on, we chat with our newest advisor Jordan Tarasoff where he sheds light on his previous employment at a sales and product-centric advisory firm. We talk about how this affects both the customer and the advisor, and Jordan ends with talking about his positive time at PWL so far. To hear more, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: Some great news about migrating the comment section to Discourse. [0:00:09.3] The new PWL team member we are welcoming and our shop opening. [0:01:27.3] Why Cameron recommends everyone watch The Social Dilemma. [0:04:19.3] Recommended books: Open and Succession Planning for Financial Advisors. [0:08:27.3] Results from a survey around people’s knowledge of mortgage rates. [0:11:43.3] Some of the reasons that mortgages can be tricky. [0:14:20.3] What is happening with IPOs and why it is being likened to 1999. [0:15:26.3] Insights from Hendrick Bessembinder about how investors should use his findings to structure their portfolios. [0:19:16.3] A follow up about safe withdrawal rates we touched on a while back. [0:21:44.3] Today’s investment topic: The US election and stock market relationship and Ben’s assumptions prior to research. [0:24:13.3] Are returns affected by US elections? Hear Ben’s findings. [0:27:26.3] The relationship between beliefs and optimism in the market. [0:30:31.3] Unpacking the link between volatility and the election. [0:32:09.3] Looking long-term at the stock market through election cycles. [0:33:14.3] </
S2 E118 · Thu, October 01, 2020
The Psychology of Investing — Bounded Rationality with Victor Ricciardi
What are the psychological conditions that allow investors to make rational decisions, and how do these processes of decision-making occur? These are the questions that our guest, Victor Ricciardi, is dedicated to answering and what he is here on the show today to talk about! Victor is the Visiting Assistant Professor of Finance at Washington and Lee University as well as the Coordinator of Behavioral and Experimental Research at the Social Science Research Network. He has an MBA in finance and an advanced professional certificate in economics from St. John's University and holds graduate certificates in personal financial planning and financial therapy from Kansas State University. Victor is the co-author of Investor Behavior: The Psychology of Financial Planning and Investing, in which he and H. Kent Baker explore and unpack the exact topics we look at in this episode. In our conversation, we talk about the steps that investors can take in order to make better decisions, and for Victor, this means maintaining a balanced portfolio and recording the circumstances and conditions in which decisions are made. Victor's starting point for better investing is self-knowledge and understanding one's own psychology and risk tolerance. He also underlines becoming familiar with the environments that allow you to make the best decisions and refining this wisdom over time. We also dig into the topics of the subconscious, checking biases, and financial therapy, so make sure to join us to hear it all. Key Points From This Episode: The history of academic studies on investor behaviour. [0:02:11.2] Victor's thoughts on the rational decisions investors should aim for. [0:04:50.5] The idea of 'bounded rationality'; sufficing and the factors that influence decisions. [0:06:38.9] Benefits and dangers of group investments — more or less rationality. [0:09:43.2] Weighing the usefulness of heuristics in the investment process. [0:11:54.1] The role of the subconscious in human decision-making. [0:13:33.8] Victor's thoughts on sustained commitment to active investing, despite the evidence. [0:15:45.6] The framing of information and the impact this has on investor behaviour. [0:19:09.5] A five-factor model for personality; extroversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness to intellect. [0:22:33.4] Unpacking the emerging profession of financial therapy and Victor's thoughts on its benefits. [0:28:36.3] The relationship between money and happiness; the importance of options. [0:31:42.7] Methods for checking our biases; education, simplicity, rebalancing, and more! [0:33:44.3] Prioritizing
S2 E117 · Thu, September 24, 2020
A Message from the Bank of Canada, and Safe Withdrawal Rates with Factor Tilts
For the first part of today’s discussion, we are joined by Don Coletti from The Central Bank of Canada. He is here to talk about their upcoming recommendation for a monetary policy framework for the next five years which is incorporating public feedback into its development through the survey, Lets Talk Inflation. From there, we touch on some favourite books, Starbucks’s stored value card liabilities, the benefits of keeping inheritance in a separate account, new standards for financial planners and advisors proposed by the FSRA, and why SoftBank did not pile into call options and cause the rally in tech as the previous headlines suggested. Heading into the meat of the episode next, Ben shares some findings from a model he built inspired by a program written by one of this show’s listeners that tests historical safe withdrawal rates for factor loaded portfolios. Ben gets into a series of papers that speak to the diversification benefit of adding factors in this section too. He wraps up the discussion with a spanner in the works though, which looks at this question through the lens of time-series momentum rather than cross-sectional momentum. Here, he considers trend following as another type of diversification that has shown favourable impacts on portfolio returns in the data that exists. As usual, we wrap up with our bad advice of the week, hearing Cameron relate the bizarre ‘findings’ of a Forbes article claiming that active management beats passive investing in the face of piles of data to the contrary! Key Points From This Episode: Updates: An upcoming guest, great reviews of this show, and the brilliant discussions thread. [0:00:23.0] Introducing Don Coletti to talk about The Bank of Canada’s outreach programme. [0:04:52.0] Alternative approaches to monetary policy the Bank of Canada is considering. [0:07:19.0] Thoughts on the US Federal Reserve’s change to average inflation targeting. [0:11:43.0] How open the Bank of Canada is to making a change. [0:13:14.0] Why the Bank of Canada is placing more emphasis on engaging with the public as part of their renewal. [0:14:35.0] Why questions about large scale asset purchases and forward guidance were included in the survey. [0:17:00.0] The response rate so far to the Bank of Canada’s Let’s Talk Inflation survey. [0:18:59.0] Favourite books and series, and Starbucks’s stored value card liabilities. [0:21:50.0] The benefits of keeping inheritance in a separate account. [0:26:24.0] Standards for financial planners and advisors the FSRA is proposing. [0:28:20.0] Why SoftBank was not piling into call options and responsible for the rally in tech. [0:31:43.0]
S2 E116 · Thu, September 17, 2020
Recovering from Active Management through Education
Joining us on the Rational Reminder today is one of the pioneers in the space of evidence-based investing, and someone who has been a massive inspiration to us, Mark Hebner! His website, Index Fund Advisors, was one of the first to start explaining the ideas of an evidence-based approach and the power of indexing, way back in the 1990s. We get to hear from Mark about his transition from misled active investor to his discovery of indexing and how this led to him founding Index Fund Advisors. One of Mark's mantras is to replace speculation with education, an idea he has held dear since his first forays into passive strategies and a message he delivers to his new clients repeatedly. Mark also tells us about the niche he filled with his business, visually presenting the evidence that was being ignored, in a way that was both easy to understanding and also convincing for investors. Our conversation covers the troubled waters of DIY investing, why Mark believes that an advisor is a necessary part of a good approach, as well as the parts of wealth management that are not actual investing. Mark unpacks his definition of risk and how best to think about it before we get into the topic of taxation. So for all this valuable information from a true authority, be sure to listen in with us and hear what Mark has to say! Key Points From This Episode: The events that led up to Mark founding Index Fund Advisors. [0:03:18.7] Mark's 12 step process for getting out of active investing and the importance of the first one. [0:11:41.3] Advice for avoiding the allure of active management — the idea of the Ulysses Pact . [0:16:12.2] Thoughts on large-cap growth stocks and the lessons we learn from history. [0:18:34.6] You cannot cheat risk; rules that have remained the same since 1720. [0:22:37.3] The folly of market timing and Mark's approach for explaining this. [0:27:55.1] Understanding tax and how it should impact and propel passive strategies. [0:33:10.1] The best way to think about risk — the uncertainty of your expected returns. [0:36:16.6] Important lessons that Mark has learned while educating clients over the years. [0:39:02.4] Aspects of wealth management apart from investing; saving, withdrawal rates, spending, and more. [0:43:28.2] The indispensability of an advisor — why DIY investing is not the way to go. [0:47:08.7] Mark's personal definition of success: Freedom of choice and the opportunity to help. [0:51:04.4] The public company that Mark had and exited before he got into investing. [0:54:23.8]
S2 E115 · Thu, September 10, 2020
Actively Managed Funds vs. COVID-19, Behavioral Nudges, and a Sustainable Investing Update
Our focus for this episode of the Rational Reminder is split into two sections; first, we cycle through our regular features, looking at a number of studies and articles of interest, the market during the pandemic, and our bad advice segment, and then Benjamin is joined by Tim Nash to talk about ethical investing and comment on Wealthsimple's new sustainable portfolio. We start off our weekly round-up talking about the idea of broadening a knowledge-base and how reading widely and diversely on all manner of subjects can influence and benefit your investing. From there, we turn to the topic of quantitive easing before exploring Tim Wu's thesis about information empires and how they cyclically influence economics. We then dive into the Ontario Securities Commission Investor Experience Study and Lubos Pastor's paper, 'Mutual Fund Performance and Flows During the COVID-19 Crisis'. Both of these shed light on investor behaviour and market performance during 2020 and also offer some interesting findings on the strength of some active management. Daniel Crosby has laid out what he calls '22 Behavioral Nudges to Optimize Client Outcomes', which we then run through, touching on each of his ideas and commenting where necessary. Our bad advice of the week comes from TikTok, and we listen in on two, worryingly misleading clips from TikTok personalities — the social platform may not be the best place to find sound financial advice! For the last part of the show we hear from Tim Nash; he shares his thoughts on Ken French's appearance on the show recently and what the pandemic has proven about sustainable funds going forward. So for all of this and a whole more, in a jam-packed episode, be sure to listen in with us! Key Points From This Episode: The importance of a wide range of reading material and looking at Peter Thiel's Zero to One . [0:03:35.2] Quantitative easing and the important work that Frances Coppola has done on the subject. [0:09:22.8] Tim's Wu's economic theory around the cycle of information empires. [00:11:49] Takeaways from the Ontario Securities Commission Investor Experience Study. [00:13:53] Narratives about actively managed funds during the COVID-19 crisis. [0:20:04.1] The performance and flows of mutual funds; looking at Lubos Pastor's paper. [0:28:35.7] Sustainable funds during the crisis — the past research that this now underlines. [0:38:03.3] Looking at the 22 behavioural nudges identified by Daniel Crosby for optimizing client outcomes. [0:43:23.7] Bad advice of the week: A couple of concerning clips of financial of content on TikTok. [0:58:46.2] An introduction to Wealthsimple's new sustainable model portfolio. [1:03:45.5] <l
S2 E114 · Thu, September 03, 2020
Patricia Lovett-Reid: Financial Wellness in a Crisis
When it comes to your financial life, you can have endless conversations about asset allocation but we often neglect the impact of communication and asking difficult questions. Today we speak with Chief Financial Commentator and awarded media personality, Pattie Lovett-Reid. We start the discussion by COVID silver-linings and the financial lessons that people have been learning due to the pandemic. Pattie explores how people’s views of risk have shifted, along with the realization that our portfolios may not be as watertight as we had thought. We dive into financial control and Pattie emphasizes how better family dialogue and managing your emotions are key elements. After talking about how the COVID crisis is different from previous crises, Pattie talks about how stress impacts people’s financial decision-making. We ask Pattie for advice on teaching children about finances, and she uses examples from her own life to show how you can instill financial responsibility in your kids. From kids to partnerships, Pattie highlights why you should be on the same financial page as your partner before explaining the concept of financial abuse. We touch on what job-seekers should consider as they apply for jobs, tips for retirees facing the challenge of low-income rates, offering financial advice through Instagram, and how the work-from-home trend is affecting real estate. Our conversation this episode filled with practical advice, and Pattie’s approach focuses on the importance of asking difficult questions and communication, be that with your family, partner, or financial advisor. Tune in to hear more about why asking difficult questions is critical to controlling your finances. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing this episode’s guest, Pattie Lovett-Reid. [0:00:15] Key financial lessons that people have learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. [0:04:01] How the way that people view their portfolios has changed due to the pandemic. [0:05:08] Pattie’s insights into what people can control regarding their finances. [0:06:15] Why Pattie has bought dividend-paying stocks in sectors that have been performing poorly. [0:07:26] Why controlling your emotions is important in making sensible financial decisions. [0:09:06] Pattie’s media perspective on the current market, compared to previous crises [0:09:44] How stress has impacted people’s financial decisions for the worse. [0:12:07] What people can be doing to make sure that they don’t make poor decisions. [0:14:06] Hear how you can begin discussing personal finances with your children. [0:15:29] Planning for future upsets, the importance of balance, and being frugal, not cheap. [0:19:04.4] </li
S2 E113 · Thu, August 27, 2020
Mega Cap Growth Stocks (FAAMG, TSLA), RESP Withdrawals, and a Golden Portfolio
The hype to invest in high-cap tech companies is deafening. In this episode, we share what you need to know before buying FANG company stocks. Although FANG is the popular term, our analysis includes Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, and Microsoft — so it’s closer to the less slick-sounding FAAATM. Before we dive into that, we talk about the show’s books of the week and how ETFs and mutual funds have been performing compared to July of 2019. We then set the scene for how FANG businesses fit into the market-place and how we measure their success by their size and relative price. As these are the companies that are changing the fabric of society, we discuss how it is fitting that companies like Apple represent a whopping 6% of the US market. To put this in historical context, we explore AT&T’s past and how market-share tends to reflect the level of innovation introduced by businesses. The upshot of this is that the huge market-share that FANG companies have carved out is not as new of a phenomenon as it may seem. We then unpack how stock prices are valued and the impact that expectation has on stock valuation and returns. After talking about why we might be overpaying for growth stocks, we commiserate over the pain of being a value-titled index investor at times when large-cap growth stocks dominate both the discussion and the marketplace. We round this section by touching on the US stocks’ performance compared to US treasury bills, whether you should be looking for the next Amazon, and why you need to quantitatively look at a company’s business quality. From FANG we jump into our planning topic of the week — a review of the withdrawal rules for the Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP). Near the end of the episode, we share some bad financial advice for the week courtesy of TMZ and the idea that you should start your portfolio with 100% gold. Tune in to hear more from the world of rational investing. Key Points From This Episode: From Blackstone to Bloomberg, hear about the books of the week. [0:01:23] Why success is often driven by luck and not by ‘being the best.’ [0:06:19] Listener feedback on Assuris — the insurance industry’s insurer. [0:07:32] Comparing Canadian ETF and mutual fund performance from July 2019. [0:08:52] Introducing our investment topic; should you add FANG mega-caps to your portfolio? [0:12:37] Measuring the unreal success of the top FANG companies. [0:14:28] Contextualizing Apple’s market-share within US history. [0:16:44] Exploring AT&T’s history to unpacking flaws behind the ‘this time, it’s different’ line of thinking. [0:18:07] How developing life-changing technology can earn you high market share — until it doesn’t. [0:22:19] Under
S2 E112 · Thu, August 20, 2020
Michael Kitces on Retirement Research and the Business of Financial Advice
Michael Kitces is one of the world’s leading experts in financial services but is also a trusted authority in retirement planning research, and today he joins us for a brilliant conversation that covers both topics. Michael is the Head of Planning Strategy at Buckingham Wealth Partners, Co-Founder of XY Planning Network, AdvicePay, and fpPathfinder, and also hosts the much-admired Financial Advisor Success podcast. In the first section of the show, we shoot our questions about retirement planning Michael’s way, exploring sequence of returns risk and the implications it presents for spending and portfolio management through retirement. Michael weighs in on three approaches to variable spending, why people can do what they love and still retire well, and his research on the ‘rising equity glidepath’. He also speaks about why it’s normal to start saving after you hit forty, and why withdrawal policy statements can help you have a better idea of when your portfolio is in the red. This leads us into the financial services segment of the show and we start out hearing Michael compare the assets under management model to the fee for service one, and how XY Planning helps those who can’t afford the first by implementing the second. From there, we dive deeper into the limits of more affordable AUM models, Michael’s thoughts on which draw on theories of human nature and also function as an advisor underwriting how-to for investors. Toward the end of the show, Michael does an amazing job of contextualizing the merge of the brokerage and advisory sides of the financial system and what this means for investors. For all this and a closing exchange about the incredible work Michael is doing to lift standards for the industry through his podcast and more, be sure to tune in! Key Points From This Episode: Introducing Michael Kitces, a leader in financial services and retirement planning. [0:00:15.7] Market fluctuation and how early retirement affects sequence of returns risk. [0:03:25.1] Different approaches to variable spending to deal with market fluctuation. [0:06:37.6] Lifestyle and banking habits: Why retirement spending rarely increases. [0:17:55.3] The rising equity glidepath: Inverting the conventional retirement portfolio . [0:20:57.2] How withdrawal policy statements help you know when your portfolio is in the red. [0:27:35.1] Why people don’t have to endure unhappy jobs for the sake of a good retirement. [0:34.42.7] Beating ‘learned helplessness’: Start saving in your 40s, you haven’t missed the boat. [0:43:41.6] Assets under management versus fee for service financial advisor models. [0:48:43.3] Why cheaper AUM financial advisor models can’t meet investor nee
S2 E111 · Thu, August 13, 2020
Gold, Insuring your Insurance, and Bank Sales Pitches
With the gold price reaching record highs, we revisit the contentious issue of whether you should add gold to your portfolio. Before mining that topic, we talk about Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber and Am I Being Too Subtle? — our book recommendations of the week. We then touch on key news stories including how the recent Apple stock split has affected its position in the Dow index. After fielding a listener question about why central banks care about deflation, we share the reasons for and against investing in gold. We discuss where gold derives its value along with the concept of the ‘golden constant’ which states that the value of gold will keep pace with inflation in the extreme long-term. Host Benjamin Felix brings in research to show why gold is a bad inflation hedge due to its short-term price volatility. He also brings in data to look at how gold performs under hyper-inflation and then speculates on how supply shock from finding new sources of gold would impact its market value. Often used as a reason to invest in gold, we provide our take on John Bogle’s statement that you should invest 5% of your portfolio in gold. Despite seeming to be a middling investment, we then talk about why so many central banks own gold. Near the end of the episode, we briefly explore the life insurance organization Assuris and which account you should draw from when buying a home. Lastly, we draw insights from this episode’s bad advice of the week. Tune in to hear more rational reminders from the investment world. Key Points From This Episode: Media recommendations ranging from Too Much and Never Enough to Ray Donovan. [0:01:39] Updates on the model portfolios being written by Ben. [0:02:58] This week’s book recommendations: Super Pumped and Am I Being Too Subtle? [0:04:40] Dives into key stories of the week; Apple’s share split and Vanguard Investor’s trading practices. [0:09:13] Answering a listener question about why central banks care about deflation. [0:11:13] Introducing this episode’s portfolio topic; should you invest in gold? [0:13:52] An overview of the arguments for and against investing in gold. [0:15:05] How gold’s value derives from its scarcity, malleability, and symbolism. [0:15:46] Gold’s value as an industrial and collectible commodity and pricing in the ‘emotional dividend’. [0:17:18] Where the demand for gold comes from — it increases with its price. [0:20:00] The concept of the golden constant and how gold maintains its value in real terms. [0:21:23] Drawing conclusions about the value and portfolio benefits of gold from the 2013 paper, ‘The Golden Dilemma’. [0:22:31] How gold has performed in periods of hyperinflation. [0:28:19] Further unpacking the idea of a golden constant and the expectation of receiving zero return. [0:32:00] Summar
S2 E110 · Thu, August 06, 2020
Craig Alexander: No Crisis Should Ever go to Waste
Often called a ‘once in one hundred years event’, the COVID-19 pandemic is having a profound impact on the economy. Today’s guest is Craig Alexander, Deloitte’s Chief Economist, who brings his 29 years of experience analyzing the economy to answer our questions about the marketplace. We start the conversation by exploring how the pandemic is affecting small businesses, with Craig adding insights into what the government should be doing to help. Craig discusses how the pandemic has revealed inadequacies with Canada’s employment insurance and why Canada needs to improve both its income support and its skills frameworks. A key theme in the episode, Chris presents the idea that businesses “Shouldn’t let a crisis go to waste.” As such, Chris thinks that this crisis is a chance for businesses to reassess their models, especially as certain pre-pandemic trends will continue to disrupt business. Chris also highlights the importance of high-quality childcare services to ensure both long and short-term economic recovery. From childcare, we leap to real estate before Chris provides his perspective on the interplay between the stock market and the economy. After the hosts question the value of economic forecasts, Chris makes a strong case for them, showing how they help organizations to develop plans based on several best and worst-case scenarios. Next, we ask Chris about investing in these times of economic uncertainty and if there is a risk of increased inflation in the future. Near the end of the episode, Chris talks about which industries will most likely grow in the future. Tune in to learn more from Chris’s incredible economic perspective. Key Points From This Episode: Presenting Craig Alexander’s bona fides and the insights gained from this episode. [0:00:39] How the pandemic has impacted the economy, especially small businesses. [0:03:10] Craig talks about inadequacies in the current employment insurance system. [0:05:06] The challenge of repurposing the job market to fit the recovery landscape. [0:06:37] Reassessing business models as a way for businesses to exit the recession stronger than before. [0:07:44] Trends disrupting business that have been accelerated by the pandemic [0:08:55] Why high-quality childcare services are so important to the economy. [0:11:16] How the real estate market is faring and why Ottawa is not a good benchmark. [0:14:31] How bank policies and mortgage deferrals have impacted real estate. [0:18:40] Making a distinction between COVID-19 and post-vaccine trends [0:22:22] Why consumer debt is increasing but that the debt-to-income ratio is a poor metric [0:24:42] How the interaction between the e
S2 E109 · Thu, July 30, 2020
Understanding the Fed’s Money Printer, and Lessons from the Crisis
Quantitative easing is a monetary policy whereby a central bank buys government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject money into the economy to expand economic activity. But what exactly does that mean? In today’s episode, Benjamin and Cameron are going to address this topic, avoiding highly politicized aspects, like whether or not central banks should be involved in the economy in the first place, and focusing purely on the operational perspective of quantitative easing – what is it, how it works, and what the intended transmission mechanisms are. Benjamin explains what he has learned through his extensive research, from what money printing and the stock market have to do with one another, where the money for loans comes from, how central banks can influence lending rates, and the difference between regular open market operations and quantitative easing. We also cover how quantitative easing works, the relationship between bank reserves and money in the economy, and what causes inflation, as well as the effect of quantitative easing has on stock prices (if any). We also catch up on recent news stories, and Cameron takes us through five key personal finance lessons we can learn from this crisis. If you’re looking to understand quantitative easing, this episode will hopefully become a useful resource! Tune in today. Key Points From This Episode: This week’s book of the week is Mindf*ck: Cambridge Analytica and the Plot to Break America by Canadian, Christopher Wylie [0:04:38] A chart showing the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 index divided by the Russell 2000 [0:08:22] University endowment sued for active investing by 94-year-old Clarence Herbst. [0:10:02] This was not the first time Clarence Herbst had an issue with his alma mater. [0:13:05] Multimillion-dollar mismanagement of public pension funds in Maryland, 2014. [0:13:22] Benjamin introduces the main topic, quantitative easing (QE), a central bank action. [0:14:42] What do money printing and the stock market have to do with one another? [0:17:37] You can summarize money as a social construct that facilitates economic activity. [0:20:06] As long as there are credit-worthy borrowers, banks will print money out of thin air. [0:22:28] The distinction between central banks and private banks, which interact with customers and have to monitor their net flow of money. [0:25:27] Open market operations allow a central bank to influence overnight lending rates. [0:28:30] The difference between regular open market operations and QE. [0:33:14] A couple of theories about how QE might work, like the portfolio balance theory. [0:3
S2 E108 · Thu, July 23, 2020
Dr. William Bernstein: Praying for a Bear Market
In keeping with our recent tide of incredible guests, today’s one is no exception. Dr. William Bernstein, a financial theorist, advisor, and neurologist, joins us to share some of his incredible insights. As the author of several seminal books such as The Intelligent Asset Allocator and The Four Pillars of Investing , Dr. Bernstein has made his mark applying his medical evidence-based approach to investing. These works have had a particularly strong influence on Cameron when he made the transition from active mutual funds earlier in his career, so it was an incredible honour to have him on the show. In this episode, we dive into a range of topics. We kick off with the importance of understanding investment theories and market history along with why Dr. Bernstein believes young investors should cross their fingers and hope for a bear market. We then take a look at how overconfidence and ill-discipline affect investment decisions and how investors can test their risk appetite in real-time. From there, we turn our attention to small-cap and value stocks and Dr. Bernstein’s take on them and the role they should play in your portfolio. We round the show off by discussing the real economic issue that Dr. Bernstein thinks the pandemic is bringing to the fore in the US, the parallels he has seen between his medical and his financial advisory career, and some of his frustrations in communicating financial advice. Be sure to tune into this phenomenal episode. Key Points From This Episode: Learn more about today’s guest, Dr. William Bernstein, and his background. [0:01:06.0] An overview of value averaging and how it’s different from dollar-cost averaging. [0:02:37.0] Why Dr. Bernstein believes it’s so important for investors to understand investing theory. [0:05:14.0] What it means to understand the several facets of market history. [0:06:28.0] Insights into return sequence and why young investors should hope for bear markets. [0:08:11.0] Why generational underperformance is arguably a bigger risk than volatility. [0:09:39.0] Why people are so bad at evaluating their risk tolerance and how they should assess it. [0:11:54.0] Bernstein’s take on whether young investors should be using leverage. [0:15:15.0] Insights on premiums for small-cap and value stocks and the reason to not build an entire portfolio of them. [0:15:49.0] Dollar-cost averaging vs value cost averaging: Dr. Bernstein’s position. [0:19:37.0] Factors that influence the shift from an equity biased portfolio to a fixed-income one. [0:21:08.0] How to reconcile the idea that stocks can be less risky than bonds over time. [0:23:58.0] W
S2 E107 · Thu, July 16, 2020
Yale vs. Norway, Income Splitting, and Avoiding Ponzi Schemes
As the expression goes, another day, another dollar. Today’s episode is a roundup of news and analysis with deeper dives into behavioural and risk-based market explanations, active management, and endowment investing models. We open with a book review of Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less by Greg McKeown, a book that’s getting a lot of attention at the moment. Another topic that’s getting a lot of attention, we discuss how Tesla’s huge market cap growth makes it feel like it’s 1999. We also offer our opinions on why Tesla has been so highly valued despite increasing competition in the electric car market. Answering a listener question, we explore how Robinhood makes money through ‘payment for order flow’ and the debate about if this is in the retail client’s best interest. Following another listener question, we answer if the podcast suffers from confirmation bias and how you can never know the ‘why’ behind stock returns. We talk about risk versus behaviour market explanations and use sound clips from previous episodes to present views on this subject. We then discuss Yale and David Swensen’s endowment investment model, focusing on his strategy of finding uncorrelated asset classes and then hiring active managers to meet target allocations. We look at the model’s benefits and its similarities to Canada’s CCP before examining how Norway invests based on oppositional ideas of the marketplace. Near the end of the episode, we continue our conversation on spousal loans by listing more family income splitting strategies. Tune in to hear more from the financial world. Key Points From This Episode: A quick book review of Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less by Greg McKeown. [0:03:25] Key ideas of this book; being busy isn’t always a positive, and if you don’t prioritize your life then someone else will. [0:06:02] Why Tesla surpassing General Motors’ market cap makes it feel like it’s 1999. [0:07:32] Opinions on why Tesla has experienced such incredible growth. [0:09:06] How Robinhood makes money if they don’t charge any trade fees. [0:12:15] Discussion on whether Robinhood’s service benefits the end-user. [0:13:19] Dave Nadig’s take on Robinhood and why it’s a “tempest in a teapot.” [0:15:46] Answering the question; “does the podcast suffer from confirmation bias?” [0:17:30] How the podcast’s stance on behavioural versus risk-based explanations have softened. [0:18:38] Sound clips from previous episodes on the reasons for different stock returns. [0:21:00] Examining a paper arguing that active management can create value for investors. [0:23:10] Deep dive into our portfolio topic; Yale an
S2 E106 · Thu, July 09, 2020
Jim Stanford on The Economics of Capitalism in a Crisis
Today’s guest is Dr. Jim Stanford, Economist and Director of the Centre for Future Work and author of Economics for Everyone . We kick things off with Jim hearing his perspectives on what makes this recession unprecedented before he argues that a traditional approach to macroeconomic policy won’t be enough to augment more than a crippled and unstable recovery. This situation might hold a silver lining though and Jim sketches out the opportunity it provides for rethinking employment ethics. After weighing in on why the deficits caused by a much-needed post-war style economic reconstruction might not such a bad thing, Jim does an amazing job of explaining the connections and differences between quantitative easing and government deficit. On this topic, he talks about why fears around credit creation are centered on an outdated concept of banking, and the potential quantitative easing has for facilitating investment and economic activity in this recession rather than buying corporate assets in the secondary market. From there, we talk about wealth distribution, the inevitability of an economic system that supersedes capitalism, and the concept of the political economy. Jim gets into how issues about history, norms, culture, and power – things that don't show up in your usual supply and demand graphs – are actually crucial inputs for understanding the economy and understanding economics. Don’t miss this incredible conversation about ethics and capitalism with today’s guest. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing Jim Stanford and his work on economics and quantitative easing. [0:00:05.3] What makes this recession unprecedented; the ‘Loch Ness Monster’ recovery. [0:03:16.2] How many of the most vulnerable groups are experiencing more job losses. 0:06:27.3] Challenges of remote work and implications that only 25-30% of jobs can be done remotely. [0:09:32.3] Impacts of social distancing on the economy, a socially constructed phenomenon. [0:12:07.7] Avoiding the Loch Ness recovery by implementing a post-war style recovery plan. [0:14:53.3] The silver lining of this crisis: putting an end to inhumane work arrangements. [0:18:38.4] Why large deficits that could come with a reconstruction might not be a problem. [0:21:02.0] Connections and differences between quantitative easing and government deficit. [0:24:30.3] Dispelling fears of credit creation inflation; how banking actually works. [0:28:14.7] The dangers of quantitative easing and how it can be better used in the recovery. [0:32:44.3] Why GDP might not be the best measure of how well an economy is doing. [0:35:49.1] Metrics that make sk
S2 E105 · Thu, July 02, 2020
Dimensional's ETFs, Private Equity, and Prescribed Rate Loans
With private equity investments increasing in popularity, you may feel the pressure to expand your portfolio. Today’s episode, we look at the data behind private equity returns to see if these investments add something to your portfolio that you couldn’t get elsewhere. But first, we discuss some big news — that slow-moving Dimensional Fund Advisors are entering the ETF marketplace. After looking at the implications of this move, we use a Harvard paper as our springboard into the topic of private equity. By exploring the shift in demand for private equity, the paper establishes the context for why investors, especially institutions, are seeking higher returns. Looking at research from AQR, we talk about their finding that private equity returns are overvalued, despite them being historically good investments. You’ll hear how the risks underlying private equity are obscured by a ‘return smoothing effect’ and why people are willing to overpay to get smooth returns. We examine how the gap between private and public equity returns has narrowed along with AQR’s argument that market changes have caused private equity investments to perform poorly. After AQR, we move onto a paper by Erik Stafford which shows that small-cap investing yields similar returns to private equity — with the advantage that you don’t have to pay high private equity fees. We round off the episode with a discussion on the benefits of spousal loans before talking about this week’s bad financial advice. This is a valuable episode for those wondering about adding private equity to their portfolios. Listen to find out why that might not be in your best interest. Key Points From This Episode: Updates on our brilliant future guests — Jim Stanford and William Bernstein. [0:01:50] That Jim Stanford’s book provides an excellent view of money and banking in capitalism. [0:02:49] The big news; Dimensional Fund Advisors are entering the ETF marketplace. [0:04:50] The similarity between Avantis Investments and Dimensional Fund’s offerings. [0:06:05] Speculation on why Dimensional Fund Advisors are moving into the ETF space. [0:09:06] The benefit of ETFs — if you want out, then you have to pick up the spread [0:13:12] How ETFs might affect investor discipline and what ETF demand might look like. [0:14:06] Other Dimension news; 16 Canadian funds will get a management fee reduction. [0:15:39] Corrections to a chart on Twitter showing investors selling their equity holdings. [0:16:16] Hear about Capital and Ideology , Benjamin’s book of the week. [0:17:38] How private equity is becoming increasingly popular. [0:19:26] Why, generally, you shouldn’t include U.S ETFs in your portfolio. [0:21:20] The massive shift towards private equity investment from numerous entities. [0:24:08] How the timing has caused large institutions to look for higher ret
S2 E104 · Thu, June 25, 2020
Fred Vettese: A Complete Guide to Retirement Income
Today, we get into a masterclass on retirement planning with a true expert in the field whose perspectives are distinctly evidence-based, Fred Vettese. Fred is a Partner and former Actuary at Morneau Shepell and author of three retirement books including Retirement Income For Life. We hear Fred’s thoughts on what people should be spending in retirement, why there is not a retirement crisis in Canada, and how Canadians can live on far less than they have been told. Fred talks about how to prepare for a bad investment outcome, as well as the problem of underspending early on and ending up with too many assets. He is a big proponent of people deferring their CPP until after 70 and buying an annuity with a portion of their money in most cases. Our guest weighs in on annuities, talking about how to buy them, which types to buy, and why ALDAs exacerbate the problem of early underspending. We query Fred about when people should start their CPP and OAS government benefits, and then move to hear his thoughts about different bear markets, how to invest during them, and what the current massive government interventions mean for the future of taxpayers. Fred gets into the risk of getting a retirement age date wrong, why he doesn’t endorse the 4% spending rule, and how retirement planning is affected by owning versus renting a home next. He also makes a case for when reverse mortgages are a good option, why long-term care insurance makes no sense, and why interest rates are so low right now. Wrapping up, we hear Fred’s thoughts on what this all means for early retirees, people still in the workforce, and those just entering it. Tune in for Fred’s brilliant perspectives on all this and a lot more in what should be an evergreen resource for any Canadian looking for solid retirement instructions. Key Points From This Episode: Introducing Fred Vettese and his evidence-based work on retirement planning. [0:00:16.3] How Fred and Bill Morneau dispelled notions of a Canadian financial crisis. [0:02:45.3] Rethinking the rule that Canadians spend 70% of their income in retirement. [0:04:55.3] Fred’s conclusion about how spending tracks inflation during retirement. [0:09:27.3] Strategies for how retirees can take on less risk but still have enough money. [0:12:00.3] Avoiding underspending and ending up with too many assets later. [0:15:08.3] The benefits of annuities and why they might not be that safe anymore. [0:16:55.3] The pitfalls of annuities indexed to inflation over combining all income sources. [0:20:00.3] Why ALDAs exacerbate Canadians underspending at younger ages. [0:22:47.3] When to start CPP and OAS government benefits, and tips for exceptional cases. [0:25:59.3] Whether this bear market is vanilla or not and how it affects investment decisions. [0:30:25.3] The effects that massive government stimulus could have on tax
S2 E103 · Thu, June 18, 2020
Picking an Active Manager, Raising the OAS Clawback Ceiling, and Trading Hertz
Welcome to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast! Today’s main topic is how to pick an actively managed fund to invest in despite funds of this type producing lower returns than passive ones! Before getting into that, we hear a few updates on Ben’s research into dollar-cost averaging versus lump-sum investing, discuss the factors that influence choice making found in an amazing new book by Sheena Iyengar, and touch on an OSC report on QuadrigaCX being a big Ponzi scheme! We get into our main topic next, introduced by the point that while Peter Lynch managed the Magellan Fund so well, none of its investors made any money out of it. We talk about the decrease in popularity of actively managed funds and Ben attempts to find out if it would be possible to sketch out a framework for picking one despite this. He does this by firstly defining active and passive investing and then tracing the evolution of the definition of Alpha (excess risk-adjusted returns) found in different key papers, where at each new contribution to the definition, the window for actually achieving Alpha gets smaller. Finally, we end with a framework but you’ll find out how it falls short of being able to narrow the definition of a sensible actively managed fund to invest in down beyond a certain point. From there, we get into some amazing OAS clawback retirement hacks that could earn you a lot of extra income and wrap up with a glance at the bizarre upsurge in Robinhood investors in now-bankrupt Hertz since the pandemic! Key Points From This Episode: Updates about Ben’s work, fans of RRP, and brilliant upcoming guests! [0:00:40.1] Discussing The Art of Choosing and its meditations on factors that impact choice. [0:05:11.3] Findings of an OSC report about QuadrigaCX being a Ponzi scheme. [0:11:00.6] An article on Peter Lynch and why Active Fund Management doesn’t work. [0:14:53.4] A framework for picking an active fund; defining active/passive investing and Alpha. [0:20:40.9] An evolving definition of Alpha showing active fund management doesn’t often produce it. [0:24:11.3] Findings of a 2017 Vanguard paper that help identify Alpha in actively managed funds. [0:36:20.3] When an active fund is less bad: it is low fee, low turnover, and invested in small-cap value stocks. [0:43:43.3] Adding a criterion to active funds to invest in: those that aren’t that big. [0:44:46.3] The last piece to consider when finding an active fund: active share concerning your belief in the manager. [0:46:29.3] How Ben’s point about active share ties back to investors not doing well under Peter Lynch despite him being a great active fund manager. [0:48:57.3
S2 E102 · Thu, June 11, 2020
Dr. Brian Portnoy: Underwriting a Meaningful Life
Even though we learn that money is merely a means of exchange, a store of value, or a unit of account, it’s so much more than this. Money captures so much of what we grapple with like hope, joy, fear, regret, and envy, yet it’s widely surveyed as being the least spoken-about issue when compared to religion, mortality, and marriage. Dr. Brian Portnoy, the author of The Geometry of Wealth , joins us today to share his view on wealth, which moves past the conventional understanding of accumulation. We kick off the show by discussing some of Brian’s research findings around the way people avoid talking about money. From there, we move onto his idea of funded contentment, which he hopes will get people to think about the different facets that go into a contented, joyful, and meaningful life. While this is a purposely loaded concept, Brian conveys the message in a simple, clear way to show that building wealth requires an assessment of many aspects of life. Then, we move onto how Brian believes financial crises affect people’s financial wellness. Although there are certainly immediate devastating effects of these crises, Brian takes it a step further, sharing a conceptual view of how these shifts intersect with people’s financial plans. After this, we turn our attention to adaptive simplicity and how it relates to goal-setting. We round the show off by discussing how the financial management industry is changing, and what Brian hopes the role of the advisor will increasingly become. Be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: Learn more about Brian’s rationale for comparing money to Lord Voldemort. [0:03:31.0] Why money — contrary to what we’ve learned — is a qualitative, not quantitative. [0:05:58.0] What Brian hopes to get people to think about with his ‘funded contentment’ idea. [0:06:44.0] How the shapes Brian uses in Geometry of Wealth relate to the journey of achieving wealth. [0:08:36.0] The three-step process to achieve funded contentment. [0:09:22.0] Unpacking priorities and decisions and how they intersect with building wealth. [0:10:54.0] The importance of calibrating planning with purpose and where people fall short. [0:13:50.0] Where people in America are in their financial wellness journey. [0:15:43.0] The four corners of the square: Exploring investment expectations and how people view this. [0:17:37.0] Brian’s practical and conceptual takes on how financial crises’ impact on financial wellness. [0:21:12.0] Why Brian disagrees that volatility is not a great measure of risk for a long-term investor. [0:29:13.0] ‘Adaptive simplicity:’ What this is and why it’s key in financial planni
S2 E101 · Thu, June 04, 2020
Factor Nuances, Dollar Cost Averaging, and Annuities in a Pandemic
We kick off today’s episode of the Rational Reminder by discussing when Ben will be publishing his new model portfolios and a quick look at some of our upcoming guests and resources you might want to take a look at. We have been on a roll with our guests lately, and we are certainly not slowing down anytime soon. From there, we look at some of the headlines, such as CDIC developments and the myths around inflation. Next, we move onto to listener rapid-fire questions. Some of the topics include the difference between leveraged ETFs and traditional ones as well as a small-cap investment strategy for an investor with a 30-year plus investment timeline. We then turn our attention to the core topic of the show, dollar-cost averaging versus lump-sum investing. Ben presents an overview of dollar-cost averaging along with some of the perceived benefits. We dive into his analysis of dollar-cost averaging versus lump sum investing in equity portfolios over select 10-year periods across various countries. We discuss the results based on a range of factors and variables. The crux of the argument is that dollar-cost averaging is not as compelling as it’s often sold to be. While there are psychological benefits, the empirical evidence shows that there are not real ones. We wrap the show up with a look at how the pandemic is likely to shape the annuities industry and retirement planning. Tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: Find out when the new model portfolios will be up. [03:10] Some books to look at ahead of upcoming guests. [05:04] Ben and Cameron’s takeaways from Tobi Lutke’s appearance on Invest Like the Best. [05:43] Current affairs, including CDIC changes, Michael Kitces recent publication, and inflation. [09:07] Rapid fire questions: Leveraged ETFs versus traditional ETFs and size as a risk factor. [13:47] How a small cap value investment strategy could work for an investor with a long horizon. [23:07] Why Ben and Cameron don’t talk about implementing the profitability factor with a dedicated ETF. [25:05] A brief explanation of dollar-cost averaging and the rationale behind it. [29:54] Find out more about Ben’s dollar-cost averaging versus lump sum investing analysis. [31:49] The results of Ben’s analysis and some key takeaways. [36:44] The worst 10% of lump sum outcomes versus dollar-cost averaging – the results. [41:26] Two things people look at to try to predict positive outcomes and its influence on lump sum investing. [50:36] How high stock prices influence lump sum versus dollar-cost averaging outcomes. [53:36] Japan vs the US: How Ben determined if the Japan
S2 E100 · Thu, May 28, 2020
Prof. Ken French: Expect the Unexpected
Who better to have on the Rational Reminder Podcast than Professor Ken French? Ken has been a massive inspiration to us and has remained a guiding light for sensible, evidence-based investors over the last few decades! His work with Eugene Fama stands as the seminal work on the subject of passive investment portfolios and we are so delighted to have him on the show today as we talk through some of his thoughts on a variety of subjects. This conversation was recorded near the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak on this side of the world and although Ken does mention the crisis, the situation has developed considerably since then. We start with the basics, with Ken giving us some helpful definitions and perspectives on asset pricing models and active management before we dive into the current market volatility and familiar topics such as risk tolerance and equity premiums. We also get the chance to hear Ken's reflections on a number of his papers, home-country bias, and the value of a good advisor. Some listeners may be surprised to learn that Ken still relies heavily on a financial advisor of his own and he explains exactly what functions this person performs for him and why he values their help so highly! We also discuss better strategies for long-term portfolio allocation, sustainable investing options and more, so be sure to join us for this very special episode, it is not to be missed! Key Points From This Episode: Ken's description of asset pricing models and their importance to investments. [0:02:37.2] Reasons why most people should ignore and avoid actively managed options. [0:04:50.7] Why the same rules that apply to mutual funds apply to hedge funds too. [0:08:36.3] Reasonable approaches to the market volatility we are currently experiencing. [0:11:01.7] The potential impacts of the move away from active into passive investments. [0:18:22.2] Realistic expectations for collecting a positive equity premium. [0:21:12.8] The probability of negative premiums and the most helpful time horizons. [0:25:25.5] Findings from the Fama and French paper, Value Premium . [0:28:47.4] Better and worse ways of measuring value and Ken's personal preference. [0:34:06.7] Factoring in the 'momentum effect' and keeping it in perspective. [0:37:36.1] Defining and evaluating home-country bias. [0:41:06.5] Ken's view of buybacks and the possible penalization of companies administering them. [0:43:50.4] Environmental and sustainable investing and how this can play into a strategy. [0:46:02.7] Who should business management work for? Shareholders or corporate stakeholders? <st
S2 E99 · Thu, May 21, 2020
Andrew Hallam (Millionaire Teacher): How to be Wealthy (and Happy)
We often talk about better planning, reduced spending and a consistent long-term strategy on the show and today we have a guest who not only gives that advice himself but clearly lives it too! Andrew Hallam is the author of the new book Millionaire Expat in which he details some strategies for what has been called geographic arbitrage, or moving to another part of the world in order to maximize your financial independence! His earlier book, Millionaire Teacher took a similar approach to education abroad and he has built out his philosophy from there. We hear from Andrew about his definition of wealth and why so many people who earn a relatively large amount of money can never be called wealthy. Andrew lays out the researched correlations between happiness and money and more clearly between debt and misery. He also shares how he has approached spending, saving and budgeting in his own life and relationships before we get into some more technical investing topics such as the benefits of index funds and why many advisors try to persuade clients away from them. Andrew weighs in on finding the right advisor for your needs and when to seek out help with your portfolio. The last part of the show is spent on the topics of education and expatriation. Andrew is a strong believer in leading by example for your children to learn about money matters and he explains his reasons for moving abroad and the gains he has accrued. For all this from a wonderful guest, tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: How Andrew defines the term 'wealthy' and why it does not depend on income. [03:43] Links between spending and happiness, and debt and misery. [06:51] How Andrew and his wife have managed their own values around spending. [11:55] Benefits and costs of borrowing; could you handle it if interest rates doubled? [13:32] Andrew's thoughts on index investing and why it is a good idea. [19:06] Common tactics that financial advisors use to steer clients away from index funds. [22:40] Advice for staying steady for the long term, through market volatility. [25:45] Considering the place of investing in gold and the 60/40 portfolio model. [27:46] Ignoring all the false information that gets broadcasted and sticking to the data. [35:05] Why to only consider certified financial planners and how much this cuts the options down. [39:53] Going it alone versus using professional advice; average reactions to volatility. [41:22] Education for the younger generation and Andrew's advice for parents. [45:18] Who could benefit from moving abroad and the idea of geographical arbitrage? [49:56] </
S2 E98 · Thu, May 14, 2020
Rapid Fire Listener Questions, Wealthsimple's Victory Lap, and the Historic State of Value Investing
We spend the bulk of today’s episode considering whether Wealthsimple’s use of long bonds and low volatility stocks is really protecting their clients’ downside, and summing up recent arguments by Cliff Asness and AQR leveled against critiques on value investing. Before that, we kick things off with thoughts on why Elon Musk aims to have no possessions, before looking at the links between empathy and the theory of relativity as well as some productivity secrets in recent books by Charles Duhigg and Shane Parrish. Next up, we briefly address a bunch of listener questions on factor tilting, and ETFs concerning COVID-19, the Smith Maneuver, and more! A final listener question about Wealthsimple’s claim mentioned above leads our hosts to wonder whether volatility and drawdown are good measures of risk. Ben made a few models to help answer this question which tested consumption models as another possible measure and brings up an interesting point about the significance of considering long bonds from an expected return or a risk parity perspective. From there, we move to the investment topic of the week – the historic state of value investing. This is a contentious topic with recent papers by Cliff Asness and AQR both weighing in and you’ll hear Ben and Cameron distill the main points from both. We hear about medium-term odds being on the side of value, and some great arguments showing common critiques leveled at value investing to be premature. Finally, Cameron takes us through the psychometric profiling side of measuring risk tolerance before telling listeners why they shouldn't make investment decisions based on reckless critiques. Tune in to get it all! Key Points From This Episode: A reminder to comment on the new comments section on the RRP website. [0:00:44.2] Why Elon Musk ways he intends throw away his possessions. [0:04:36.1] New books about productivity and the links between science and empathy. [0:07:08.2] Factor tilting: being aggressive versus non-aggressive. [0:12:43.6] Is there a benefit in capturing size premium using a combination of ETFs? [0:16:54.2] How to adjust RESP asset allocation as kids get closer to school age. [0:18:46.2] What ETFs are best to use while implementing the Smith Maneuver. [0:22:36.2] Has the role of bonds ETFs changed in light of COVID-19? [0:24:12.2] Thoughts on Wealthsimple’s claim to have protected their clients in this downturn. [0:28:34.2] Critiquing long term bonds: is volatility/drawdown a good measure of risk? [0:33:28.2] Ben’s model testing consumption objectives as a measure of risk. [0:36:28.2] Portfolio topic of the week: the historic state of value inve
S2 E97 · Thu, May 07, 2020
Greg Zuckerman: Did Jim Simons (Renaissance Technologies) Solve the Market?
Today on the Rational Reminder Podcast we interview a seasoned journalist from The Wall Street Journal, Greg Zuckerman. With 23 years of experience with the media outlet, Greg has written extensively about the most prominent figures in the world of investing, including Jim Simons, John Paulson and Carl Icahn, generally focusing his attention on significant trades, traders and fund managers. In this episode, Greg shares how covering the stories of renowned investors and fund managers have influenced his investment philosophy. Specifically, we get into his book about John Paulson, The Greatest Trade Ever, and why Greg reckons Paulson never managed to achieve the same level of success following this famous trade. His work on the founder of Renaissance Technologies, Jim Simons, also produces fascinating points of discussion, including why their Medallion Fund became so successful and how capping the size of the fund contributed to its outstanding performance. Greg also talks about the idiosyncratic character of Simons, the role of luck, why taking an algorithmic approach to investing is likely to produce good outcomes in the long run, and why people should not always pay attention to the advice of “smart money” sources like hedge funds. Key Points From This Episode: How covering the stories of prominent fund managers has affected Greg’s investment philosophy. [0:03:27.1] Thoughts on the likelihood of fund managers outperforming the market. [0:05:54.1] Hear about John Paulson’s big trade and why he has failed to outperform since. [0:07:24.1] Find out what made Renaissance Technologies’ Medallion Fund so successful. [0:11:25.1] The role that capping the size of their fund has played in their ongoing success. [0:13:30.1] More about Jim Simons: the mathematician with outstanding people skills. [0:14:46.1] The influence that Simons personally had on the outcome of the Medallion Fund. [0:17:02.1] The unpredictability of luck and intuition Simon’s relied upon in his early days of trading. [0:22:22.5] George’s biggest surprise in writing the story and his general thoughts on market efficiency. [0:24:27.1] Advice about investors making decisions based on the opinions of people like Buffett and Dalio. [0:28:06:7] Algorithmic thinking and other lessons from working with Renaissance Technologies. [0:31:26.1] Why the so-called “smart money” sources like hedge funds are not so smart. [0:34:28.6] Learn how Greg became interested in Wall Street characters and how he gets access to their stories. [0:36:36.6]
S2 E96 · Thu, April 30, 2020
Ben Rabidoux: A Reality Check on Canadian Real Estate & Macro Economics
The economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic have been unprecedented and the seismic shifts have caused numerous unforeseen challenges. While no-one could have predicted the enormity and speed of the current crash before it happened, several signs indicated that an economic contraction was on the horizon. Today’s guest, Ben Rabidoux, President of North Cove Advisors, a boutique research firm, is here to share some macroeconomic trends and what they tell us about the state of the Canadian economy. His research expertise includes Canadian housing, macroeconomic trends, and household credit. We kick off the episode with some listener feedback as well as a listener question, where we discuss how to incorporate unvested stock options into your personal financial planning. There are several ways to go about this and numerous factors to consider, so it’s important account for them all. Ben then dives straight in, giving us an overview of the economic landscape before the sudden upheaval. He sheds some light on population growth and its relationship to economic growth. As a great deal of the economic gains was coming from non-resident growth, the crisis is likely to change this. We also talk about personal debt and HELOC loans. Coming into the recession, the household debt service ratio was incredibly high, with interest rates at an all-time low. Ben walks us through how these vulnerabilities might pan out and what could happen with HELOC debt. Along with this, we also discuss the relationship between housing and economic growth, with some truly astonishing data from Canada, the changes that are likely to happen with rental supply, and Ben’s take on some personal finance topics. This show was an incredible overview of some of the larger forces at play, and it went a long way to paint a clearer overall picture. Be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: Useful listener feedback and personal updates from Cameron and Benjamin. [0:01:50.0] Data points about the increase in value of the top five S&P 500 stocks. [0:03:46.0] A listener question about factoring company stock options into financial planning. [0:06:04.0] Learn more about Ben, the work he does, his research focus, and his clients. [0:10:22.0] Find out Ben’s take on active management vs index investing. [0:11:20.0] The state of the Canadian economy prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. [0:12:05.0] Canada’s recent explosive population growth and where that’s headed. [0:14:09.0] Consumer and corporate debt-level, the source, and important takeaways. [0:16:13.0] Why it’s difficult to draw parallels between the situation today and Japan in 1990. [0:03:43.2] How different Canadian regions’ employment has responded t
S2 E95 · Thu, April 23, 2020
Scott Rieckens (Playing with FIRE): Finding Financial Education, Perspective, and Freedom
The recent film, Playing with FIRE details the particulars of the FIRE Movement in a way that is accessible, informative, and impactful. Both Cameron and Ben were hugely impressed with the film and the argument it makes for the framework of FIRE. Today we are joined by the producer and star of the film, Scott Rieckens, to discuss the movie and his own journey to reach financial independence. In much the same way that the film does, Scott makes a compelling and inspiring argument for the central philosophy of the movement, emphasizing what many of us will agree are the most important part of our lives and the way we can think about these to maximize our health and happiness. We discuss values and decision making, and how the FIRE perspective accounts for psychological and emotional changes to what is meaningful in your life. Scott explains the reframing that occurs with the system and the important aspects of it, especially those that matter in an introductory setting. We talk about communication and upkeep, the 4% rule, and the individual nature of your own financial strategy. Ultimately the ideas of FIRE are just ways to think about what is really important to you and your family and they provide a way to focus and enhance these. For this truly inspiring and potentially life-changing discussion, be sure to listen in with on the Rational Reminder! Key Points From This Episode: Scott's own understanding of FIRE and what it comes to mean in his life. [0:04:25.4] The initial connection that Scott had with the FIRE movement before making the film. [0:05:23.2] Shared values and finding common financial ground in a life-partnership. [0:08:50.8] Mental changes that Scott and his wife, Taylor, made in response to the ideas of FIRE. [0:11:57.5] Reframing your decisions and the necessary information to do this. [0:18:01.9] Social changes and the impacts of the philosophical alterations Scott made. [0:22:48.1] How Scott has communicated these ideas to his daughter as she has grown older. [0:29:51.4] Scott's complete gratefulness for his new relationship with money. [0:33:23.8] First steps to take in the process toward financial independence. [0:37:27.4] Getting a grip on the '4% Rule and how it can guide your decisions. [0:41:39.6] Increasing income versus decreasing spending and adjusting accordingly. [0:46:41.2] Applying these ideas to something beyond our selfish needs. [0:51:05.4] The multitude of things we can all do with more time in retirement! [0:56:05.4] Comparing the changing definition of success for Scott. [0:58:11.4] The information that i
S2 E94 · Thu, April 16, 2020
The Stock Market vs. The Economy, and Assessing Risk Tolerance
When it comes to the question of whether the economy affects the stock market, it’s not about whether the former is in a good or bad state, but how that relates to what the market was expecting. In today’s episode we get into predictions about labour economics during COVID-19, the relationship between the market and the economy, and how to make decisions that suit your risk tolerance. We kick things off by reviewing insights Edward Lazear and Gerard O’Reilly gave in a recent webinar. They spoke about how the current crisis relates to past events from the perspective of labour economics, and what empirical data is saying about stock returns and the economy. A talking point here is the idea that recessions are defined by committees, and always long after they have either begun or ended. This leads to the topic of whether there is a relationship between economic data and stock market performance. We find many examples of cases in the short and long term where no correlation can be found between the two, and cases where the market starts to recover before the economy. We discuss how this speaks of a fundamental difference in the analytical methods of economists versus investors, not a rigged market. The first group assesses past information while the second invests based on where they think things will go. We talk about what happens when GDP is good but not as high as expectations were, and how per-share earnings growth can only keep up with GDP if no new shares were issued. We then switch to the concept of risk aversion and discuss the differences between system one and system two thinking, before moving into a comparison between two methods of analyzing risk. Tune in for your weekly reality check! Key Points From This Episode: Having a baby and getting a drone license; updates from Ben and Cameron. [0:00:18.2] Great new Netflix shows and books Cameron has been getting into. [0:03:44.6] Predictions about labour economics during COVID in Lazear’s webinar. [0:06:28.3] Implications around recessions being defined by committees after the fact. [0:10:35.2] Predicting future growth based on great performance in financial markets recently. [0:13:45.8] Pent up demand post-crisis; why the government should keep businesses afloat. [0:16:25.0] Gerard O’Reilly’s observations about financial markets in recessions. [0:21:51.2] Lazear’s stabilization predictions, and why inflation isn’t a threat in slack markets. [0:26:09.1] State Street’s ETF rebalance and failed hedge fund rebalancing bets. [ 0:28:40.6] Is the market rigged? Forward-thinking markets vs backward thinking economies. [0:33:30.7] Market expectations and the effect economic news has on future stock prices.
S2 E93 · Thu, April 09, 2020
Cliff Asness from AQR: The Impact of Stories, Behaviour and Risk
No one credible ever said that investing was a simple endeavour. It might have some simple guidelines, that if followed are more likely to yield positive results, but the ins and outs of the markets, decisions and their impacts, movements and crashes are never straightforward one-dimensional cases. Our guest today, Cliff Asness, really brings this point to bear, showing the nuance and multiplicity of all the topics we discuss. As the experienced owner of AQR and a wealth of knowledge and insight, Cliff shares a host of ideas and thoughts on as many topics as we have time for. We start off the chat talking about market efficiency before moving into the murky waters of value. We hold value investing to be sound, as does Cliff, yet the last few years have stretched even our commitment to this philosophy a little. The perspective that Cliff is able to share, drawing from his formative years in the investing world in the '90s is invaluable and a lot of what we talk about gets contrasted to the tech bubble of that period. The conversation also covers the size of stocks and portfolio allocation. Although Cliff has strong opinions on most of these issues he does a great job of showing the lack of definitive answers to any one of them, allowing space for new knowledge and outlying evidence to make its mark. We also get into finding the right kind of investor for your own style and goals, the role of good communication in finance and the influential article that Cliff wrote about 'pulling the goalie'. In it, Cliff lays out what the data tells us about certain late-stage situations in which it is statistically wise to make more risky choices. For all of this and a fabulously entertaining conversation, listen in with us today! Key Points From This Episode: Cliff's perspective on market efficiency and the impact on his portfolios. [0:03:48.5] Value investing in today's climate where value has taken such a knock. [0:08:30.8] Stories and behavioural effects on value; how we understand ups and downs. [0:13:36.2] Conversations Cliff has had with clients in the tougher times. [0:21:04.5] Comparing the companies driving growth now with those in the '90s. [0:23:46.2] The size effect and why Cliff does not subscribe to this philosophy. [0:25:17.1] 60/40 portfolios; are they still alive? Why Cliff thinks you can do better! [0:33:07.7] Cliff's experiences with institutions and advisors and contrasting the two. [0:36:31.5] Informed decisions on who to invest with; thoughts on finding the right advisor. [0:38:28.7] Pulling the goalie and why risky behaviour can work in certain circumstances. [0:40:42.5] The value of communication skills in the game of financial advisi
S2 E92 · Thu, April 02, 2020
Taking Back your Amygdala and Flourishing Through a Crisis with Dr. Moira Somers and Dave Goetsch
In today’s episode, we take a less analytical position on the current situation to focus more on the behavioral side of things. Joining us are two returning guests, Dr. Moira Somers and Dave Goetsch, who share their unique perspectives in a very real and at times refreshingly comical conversation about how people could most beneficially respond to this moment in time. Dave speaks of his personal experience going from panicky investor to getting a feel for the broad concept of index investing, and the idea that learning not to worry about the market on a day to day basis can be applied to life more generally. Dr. Somers provides some psychological background to these different strategies for tolerating stress. She shares her insights about a typical response to crises called amygdala hijack and how two main personality types called ‘the monitor’ and ‘the blunter’ deal with stress. We speak about some more healthy strategies for coping, with banding together and communicating featuring as strong solutions that allow us to clear our heads and problem solve more creatively. The conversation also covers the idea that this moment can be taken as a time to reflect, and even to double down on skills that aren’t necessarily investment-related but which can help ensure financial stability in the future. Toward the end of the episode, we look at how financial advisors could be the most useful to their clients right now and hear a strong argument for a strategy that combines experience-based advice with a more important trait: a high EQ. Tune into today’s episode to find out how you can gain more of a bird's eye view of your version of the current situation. Key Points From This Episode: Amygdala hijack: Moira’s thoughts on psychological responses to COVID-19. [0:03:33.8] Dave’s thoughts on mitigating valid worry using his understanding of markets. [0:05:54.4] Learning not to be emotionally connected to the minutiae of the crisis. [ 0:13:25.0] Non-investment related skills that can strengthen our financial lives . [0:14:56.1] Adjusting models and using them to gain insights rather than predict the future. [0:17:04.9] Tools Dave has acquired to deal with market fluctuation since 2008. [0:20:40.2] Beating myopic loss aversion by planning your response to situations ahead. [0:24:00.3] Ways of toggling between contrasting feelings about the present and future. [0:29:30.5] Being reflective about one’s current experience rather than reactive. [0:33:07.1] The best predictor of getting through stress: social support. [0:33:59.2] A four-step process to effective decision-making defined by the Heath brothers. [0:37:07.2] Banding together and
S2 E91 · Thu, March 26, 2020
Tax Efficiency & Leverage: The Smith Maneuver with Robinson Smith
The Smith Maneuver was developed by Fraser Smith as a smart way for Canadians to convert a traditional, non-deductible mortgage into a deductible mortgage by systematically re-borrowing to invest. Today we are joined by Fraser's son, Robinson, to talk about the maneuver, his father's legacy and explain how you can use it to your financial advantage. In his book, The Smith Maneuver, Fraser laid out a plan for working the mortgage and debt system to your advantage, by deducting the interest on a mortgage, while still being able to claim exemptions on the sale of a house. Robinson does a great job of explaining the procedure for implementing the strategy and all the possible ways to use it. He talks about risk, different kinds of debt and investor diligence, giving everything you need on the subject! Robinson believes in his father's vision of bringing the practices of the wealthy to the average Canadian and allowing wealth creation through leveraging possibilities instead of the inertia and fear that most people choose. For the last part of our conversation, Robinson gives us some examples from the Smithman Calculator, illustrating just how effective the system can be! Join us on the Rational Reminder Podcast today, to get it all! Key Points From This Episode: An explanation of the Smith Maneuver and its usefulness to Canadians. [0:03:40.6] A step by step walk-through of the implementation of the Smith Maneuver. [0:07:15.1] The possibility of refinancing a credit line for lower mortgage rates. [0:10:18.0] How to think about maintaining more leverage with mortgage payments. [0:13:04.9] The risks of debt, minimizing withdrawal amounts and reversing the maneuver. [0:16:48.6] Robinson and his father's investor experiences around the 2008 market crash. [0:18:35.3] Why leveraging smart debt is so much better than gambling on a startup! [0:20:24.2] The regulatory risk that is present when performing a Smith Maneuver. [0:22:04.1] Risks that accompany not applying these strategies that Robinson is espousing. [0:24:47.6] The influence of your tax rate on the efficacy of the Smith Maneuver. [0:27:23.2] The diligence that is needed in the implementation of the Smith Maneuver. [0:29:15.0] How the Smith Maneuver can address poverty issues that plague Canada. [0:33:39.8] Running through the input process and rewards on the Smithman Calculator! [0:34:51.8] Net-worth improvements and cash-flow dams from re-borrowing. [0:38:41.7] How Robinson defines success in his mission to help Canadians. [0:41:26.3]
Bonus · Mon, March 23, 2020
Bear Markets: Always Different, Always the Same
In our second special release episode during the 2020 COVID-19 bear market we discussed a broad history of US bear markets from 1900 to 2020, the recent volatility in the bond market, bond ETF NAV spreads, a nuance in the legislation on tax-loss harvesting, and some of the tax-related changes that Canada has rolled out in light of the current situation.
S2 E90 · Sun, March 15, 2020
COVID-19: A Rational Reminder
How we are handling the situation as a firm, investing through a crisis, historical comparisons, and more.
S2 E89 · Thu, March 12, 2020
Safety-First: A Sensible Approach to Retirement Income Planning with Wade Pfau.
It’s not unreasonable to assume that a desirable retirement equates to having the financial freedom to meet one's lifestyle and personal goals. The more efficient a person is with their assets, the higher the likelihood of this, which is why sensible retirement income planning is so necessary. Today’s guest is Wade Pfau and he is arguably one of the main thinkers in the retirement income space at present – a more readable Moshe Milevsky if you will. This podcast is usually devoted to high-level discussions about portfolio investment so it was an honour to have Wade join us and have a similar kind of conversation but rather about retirement income planning. Retirees face some unique risks when it comes to strategies for asset management, insurance, and investments, which means they require tailored strategies, and today Wade weighs in on some of the different approaches we see out there. The topic of probability versus safety-first approaches, and the potential wisdom in amalgamating the two as a means of preparing for retirement, crops up a lot in this discussion. Wade talks about the four L’s of the safety-first strategy, how it recommends building up a base of savings that act as an income to reach higher legacy in the long term. He suggests that people need to account for longevity risk more and argues for the efficiency of assuming that you will live until the average oldest age. That way you don’t end up throttling your lifestyle by saving unnecessarily during retirement. In our discussion, Wade also shares valuable insight into low interest rates versus expected returns, the ineffectiveness of the 4% rule, annuities and deferred annuities concerning mortality credits, and different types of buffer assets. Tune in for all this and much more on the topic of retirement planning from one of the greats in the field today! Key Points From This Episode: Notes on Wade Pfau, a leader in retirement income planning research. [0:00:43.0] Unique risks faced by retirees: longevity risk, sequence of returns risk, etc. [0:04:03.0] Retirement now vs 20 years ago: low interest rates and retirement length growth. [0:05:16] Safety-first retirement: build a floor and then spend more over the years. [0:06:31] Contractual protections (annuities) and probability vs safety-first approaches. [0:08:25] The four Ls of the safety-first method: longevity, lifestyle, legacy goals, liquidity. [0:12:18.0] Why to go for stocks/equities rather than stocks/bonds . [0:12:18.0] What the low interest rate environment means for expected returns. [0:16:57.0] The ineffectiveness of the 4% rule when applied internationally. [0:18:47] How people don’t properly account for longevity risk in retirement planning. <stro
S2 E88 · Thu, March 05, 2020
The Market and Pandemics: What Really Affects Financial Ups and Downs?
Welcome back to the Rational Reminder Podcast everybody. Today we are using the opportunity to have a bit of a philosophical discussion about a bunch of things related to your retirement and the financial planning that goes into it. We touch on the all too obvious topics of the coronavirus and last week's market fluctuations before we scan the last ten years for any notable data points on fluctuations and the years with the biggest dips. We look at life expectancy and how this affects a retirement planning strategy. In British Columbia, drug use among younger generations has brought down life expectancy estimates, while improved health care has extended them in some regards. This leads to a few comments on biological age and how knowledge of yours should play a big role in your personal strategy for the end of your life. The last part of the episode is spent considering the current state of the discourse around the FIRE movement and what has grown out of it. We can see that it is not uncommon for large portions of the aging population to be happy to carry on working, and that the idea of getting out of the workforce as soon as possible may only be attractive to certain kinds of professions. For all this and a whole more from Cameron and Ben, be sure to tune in! Key Points From This Episode: The amazing new documentary on Herbalife called Betting on Zero . [0:02:54.5] Market drops last week and the story that accompanied the volatility. [0:06:14.9] Biggest and average drawdowns in recent calendar years. [0:10:03.3] Coronavirus impacts and questions about buying stocks now when they are low. [0:14:20.2] Conversations about the market drop and aggressive response strategies. [0:20:06.8] Data findings for historic cases of market timing from the last century. [0:25:12.3] Historic relations between the market and health pandemics. [0:30:22.1] Life expectancy's huge role in long term financial plans and retirement. [0:32:31.8] Changes in average life expectancies in British Columbia due to drug use. [0:37:40.7] The importance of biological age when making sound financial decisions! [0:41:02.5] Working longer into old age as a means to make retirement easier. [0:44:31.5] The five-factor model for happiness and what it means for your retirement. [0:49:50.5] Bad advice of the week! The last time we will talk about deferred sales charges! [0:54:57.5]
S2 E87 · Thu, February 27, 2020
The Inevitability of Risk: Gearing Up for the Open Waters with Allison Schrager
You can’t get anything good out of life without taking a risk, and this holds true in the world of investing too. Depending on the situation, people are willing to either pay more for high-risk or risk-free, and matters become more complex because the term 'risk-free' means a different thing to everybody. Today’s guest is economist Allison Schrager, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, author of An Economist Walks into a Brothel, and long time collaborator with Nobel laureate, Bob Merton. Allison is an expert on risk and she joins us in this episode to speak about this topic in relation to retirement and retirement finance. We talk about the idea that while risk has been given conventionally bad associations, it can be more accurately understood as a probability distribution between the future occurrence of both potentially good and potentially bad things. Allison shares her opinions about how both young and old people should approach risk, and stresses the importance of having clearly defined goals and a good financial advisor. She shares her thoughts on managing systemic vs idiosyncratic risk, why the retirement crisis is not all doom and gloom, and the laddered bond portfolio she developed with Bob Merton. Joining this episode, you’ll also hear Allison speak about how misinformation causes people to be hesitant about annuities, the connection between risk management in surfing and investing, and why investing in education is smarter than investing in a house. Allison covers a whole lot more risk-related topics in this episode too, so don’t miss out on it. Key Points From This Episode: Allison’s definition of risk: as a probability distribution. [0:02:54 .0] The idea that the word risk pertains to both good and bad things. [0:03:57.2 ] Relativity of the term ‘risk-free’ and its fundamental connection to price. [0:04:20 .0] Probability of, and skill in, taking risks depending on how they are presented. [0:05:11 .0] The value of having a clear goal in mind as far as managing risk. [0:07:19 .0] Strategies for managing systematic vs idiosyncratic risk. [0:09:20 .0] Value adds advisors can give for managing systematic risk. [0:10:01 .0] Retirement goals in the current crisis and Allison’s work with Bob Merton. [0:11:51 .0] The retirement problem as a problem of income, not wealth. [0:12:17 .0] A duration matching laddered bond portfolio as a risk-free retirement plan. [0:13:18 .0] Why 401(k)s are wealth focused compared to defined benefit plans. [0:14:43 .0]</s
S2 E86 · Thu, February 20, 2020
Uninsurable Condos, Floundering Robo Advisors, and Counterfactual Thinking
Let's say you make a choice that had you chosen differently, things would ostensibly have turned out more favourably. Later on, a similar situation comes up and you make the choice you think you should have made previously in the hope that the result you wanted before will come true this time around. This is called counterfactual thinking and it forms the main topic of our discussion in today’s episode. First publicized in a fascinating paper called The Psychology of Preferences, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky explore the abundance of instances where humans employ irrational ‘what if’ thinking in their processing of recently made decisions that resulted in an undesirable outcome. People tend to think back and wish that they had made a different choice, irrationally thinking that if they had, things would have worked out better. This idea, of course, has applications to investing in stocks with particular implications due to the utter randomness of the market. This is a mind-blowing discussion about human irrationality with links to many leading papers that research this principle in relation to different situations. Outside of our main discussion, we also touch on why you should think twice before buying a condo, the utter absurdity of the Robo-Advisor business model, monthly posted DVD accounts and the surprising birth of Netflix, and finally, the ambiguity of Vanguard’s partnering with HarbourVest. Key Points From This Episode: The story of Netflix’s origin starting by renting DVDs out by post. [0:02:30.0] Life expectancy, annuities, and Wade Pfau’s ideas on Safety-First retirement planning. [0:04:56] Investor/insurer reluctance and why you shouldn’t buy a condo. [0:07:23] The Robo-Advisor financing crisis and eventual merge of software and humans. [0:11:28] Counterfactual thinking and how it affects investment patterns. [0:17:40] The central role closeness of a related incident plays in ‘what if’ thinking. [0:21:21] Contrast effects: winning $50 feels good unless you could have won $100. [0:24:42] Causal inference effects: rectifying a past problem by acting its solution in the future. [0:27:37] Investor preferences reflecting counterfactual thinking and attachment to stocks. [0:31:27] The effect the end of WW1 had on people to blind them to the coming depression. [0:36:00] How there is no proof that if we acted differently a desired set of realities would result. [0:40:22] The randomness of the stock market and how mastering it is thus impossible. [0:41:34] Tools for beating counterfactual thinking: document your original rationale, etc. [0:43:19] Jason Zweig’s tips: li
S2 E85 · Thu, February 13, 2020
Growth of the Experience Economy: A Transformation of the Financial Service Industry with Dennis Moseley-Williams
The financial advice industry has always been a place of change, and yet certain old practices hang around for decades. Our guest today, Dennis Moseley-Williams, is all about moving things forward for the good of the client and the advisor. The basis of his understanding is the characterization of the economy as one fundamentally built around experiences. Applying this lens to the financial sector means that advisors need to think about how to provide more than just a service to their clients, they need to stage an experience and a process of curated growth and learning. In our conversation, Dennis unpacks the evolution up to this point, showing how each step requires adjustments and progress from providers and the space that opens up due to technological advances must be filled with something of value. We discuss communication, fulfillment and happiness and Dennis makes a strong argument for the role of the financial advisor reaching beyond the bank; he believes it should include all important areas of life. The last part of the episode is spent thinking about ways that willing advisors can offer the most to their clients and how to pitch and scale these businesses in the smartest ways. For this fascinating chat with a truly innovative thinker and gifted speaker, be sure to join us! Key Points From This Episode: Dennis' explanation of the experience economy and trends in the financial services industry. [0:04:04.4 ] How Dennis found himself in the world of finance and investments. [0:07:07.7 ] The evolution of the skillset needed for good financial advice. [0:09:38.2 ] The five stages of experience and the lasting impact of a meaningful experience. [0:14:40.7 ] What the experience economy means in terms of finding good financial advice. [0:18:52.9 ] The space created by new tech advances and what will fill it. [0:23:35.6 ] Better communication in today's economy; physical and virtual experiences. [0:31:41.5 ] Differences between big and small business; pitching your offer for those who care. [0:33:29.3 ] Red flags and green lights for investors in the search for the right advisor. [0:38:12.2 ] The place of technical financial know-how and its decreasing value. [0:42:31.7 ] How an advisor can fill the space left by the church. [0:48:31.3 ] Happiness and fulfillment; putting funded contentment at the top of the list. [0:54:47.8 ] Dennis' hopes and predictions for the future of financial advice. [0:59:00.2<
S2 E84 · Thu, February 06, 2020
Mawer, The Value Premium, and Investing Costs plus ESG Follow-up with Tim Nash
On today’s episode of The Rational Reminder, we once again cover a host of topics. We begin with Cameron sharing his thoughts on a book he recently finished, The Ride of a Lifetime , and some of the lessons he took away from it. We then tackle three listener questions, where we cover Mawer and index funds hypothetically driving prices. Then, in the portfolio portion of the show, we turn our attention to value premiums. Fama and French recently released a paper on the topic, and Ben is naturally very excited to share his assessment on it. We unpack how value has performed in the US, unexpected big value findings, and other takeaways from the paper. After that, we explore the total cost of ownership in our planning section. These are expenses that you incur when you begin investing. We shed light on some of them and the effect they have on your investments. Finally, we end the show with Tim Nash’s take on our assessment of sustainable investing in episode 82. His insights offer an interesting perspective on the topic. While we can’t say we’re fully on board with his active position, it’s certainly a fascinating viewpoint. Don't miss out on today’s jam-packed show! Key Points From This Episode: Takeaways from the audience’s reception to episode 83 on cryptocurrency. [0:00:52.0] Insights and lessons from The Ride of a Lifetime, which Cameron recently finished. [0:04:13.0] More about Mawer: Data about and insights on how the company has fared. [0:08:48.0] What would happen if index funds could hypothetically drive prices? [0:22:34.0] What’s interesting about the timing of Fama and French’s new paper, The Value Premium . [0:25:46.0] The thesis of Fama and French’s paper and what they found over measured periods. [0:26:49.0] Why Fama and French used how value did relative to the market. [0:29:17.0] How value performed between 1992-2019 and a surprising finding about big value. [0:31:04.0] Ben’s takeaways from the Fama and French study. [0:33:18.0] Conclusions from Fama and French’s 2019 paper, Volatility Lessons . [0:36:37.0] How other countries performed on market-wide value versus the market. [0:38:30.0] Clarifying the confusion around the management expense ratio and some empirical data. [0:40:00.0] The conflict of interest inherent in commission-based products. [0:42:39.0] What the trading expense ratio is and how it works. [0:43:47.0] Things similar to fees: Cash drags, large cap against distribution, and withholding tax. [0:47:50.0] ‘Bad advice of the week’: Globe and Mail [0
S2 E83 · Thu, January 30, 2020
A New Safety in Crypto: Why You Should Drop Gold for Bitcoin with Michael Sonnenshein of Grayscale
The last ten years have seen so much said and done in the cryptocurrency space, and yet the future of bitcoin is still somewhat unclear. For Michael Sonnenshein however, bitcoin and the crypto market still offer the freedom and possibilities that have long been espoused as their greatest values. He joins us today to talk about his role at Grayscale Investments, how Grayscale fits into the larger Digital Currency Group family and how he envisions the wide-open future possibilities for bitcoin. We discuss some basics for the bitcoin conversation and Michael does a sterling job of setting out the lay of the land at present. From there, we turn to the role of Grayscale in dealing with bitcoin which can also be bought directly. Michael then takes the opportunity to compare bitcoin and gold; showing how they overlap and then bitcoin improves on the benefits that gold investments have historically provided. The last part of the conversation is spent addressing the safety of bitcoin and how time is showing its resistance to shocks and is earning bitcoin its place among other highly trusted assets. For all this and more fascinating insights into a big part of the future, join us on the Rational Reminder today! Key Points From This Episode: Michael's description of Digital Currency Group. [0:03:28.4] A basic explanation of bitcoin and what defines a digital currency. [0:08:09.2] What will happen when the maximum amount of bitcoin has been mined? [0:11:29.0] Affecting the value of bitcoin through the altering of its decimal places. [0:14:04.2] The usefulness of Grayscale when it is possible to buy bitcoin directly. [0:15:21.4] How bitcoin differs from and improves on gold investments. [0:19:11.7] How digital currency fits in portfolio management and who it really suits. [0:21:30.0] Thinking about the expected returns question in regards to digital currencies. [0:23:30.3] The high amount of institutional investments through Grayscale and deciding on allocation. [0:29:00.5] Bitcoin's response to shocks and its rising reputation as a place of safety. [0:33:36.7] Why Michael is worried by impatience in regards to digital currencies. [0:34:42.5] How bitcoin can impact under-resourced populations through it non-reliance on infrastructure. [0:36:49.3] How Michael defines success for Grayscale and himself moving forward. [0:39:07.0] And much more!
S2 E82 · Thu, January 23, 2020
Sustainable Investing: Understanding the Trade-offs of Socially Responsible Investments
Welcome to this week’s episode of the Rational Reminder! Today, we get stuck into a commonly asked about investment topic – socially responsible or sustainable investing. The show kicks off with Cameron sharing some fantastic insights he gained from a book he recently finished, The Undoing Project. We then delve into the CalPERS story that was in the spotlight at the end of 2019. After that, we move the planning portion of our show, where we tackle the topic of sustainable investing. Many prominent Canadian pension funds have said that sustainability will be a core part of their investing going forward. We explore why sustainable investing has to mean lower returns, how this kind of investing effects social change, and what the amount you need to give up to feel good about your investments is. We also look at the subjectivity of ESG ratings and how this relates to your values. Ultimately, sustainable investing is about balancing the continuum of views and values, how closely they can be matched, and how you can do that in a diversified way. The sustainable label may not meet your expectations of sustainability which is why finding the balance can prove to be challenging. We round off the show by sharing our thoughts on how to restructure your portfolio when it comes time to live off of it. You don’t want to miss out on this interesting show, so tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: A book Cameron recently finished and how he applies these lessons to his work. [0:01:08.0] More about the CalPERS story that broke in December 2019. [0:05:50.0] Insights into active managers and actively managed funds. [0:07:40.0] Vanguard is the first asset manager to surpass the six trillion-dollar mark and other stats. [0:10:30.0] Portfolio topic: The growth of socially responsible investing in North America. [0:12:10.0] The main considerations to account for when looking at socially responsible investing. [0:14:09.0] Two main sustainable investing strategies: negative screening and ESG integration. [0:15:01.0] The relationship between ESG and expected returns when controlling for common risk factors. [0:17:13.0] The importance of ESG risk factor – where does the negative premium come from? [0:19:45.0] Differences between exclusion and investor tastes and their influence on expected returns. [0:21:40.0] Why the dispersion of preferences in the ESG industry is so important. [0:25:14.0] Does sustainable investing lead to positive social returns? [0:27:05.0] Two ways the lack of diversification of ESG investing hurts investors. [0:30:25.0] Understanding the trade-off betwee
S2 E81 · Thu, January 16, 2020
Estate and Family Law in Ontario: The Importance of Your Will with Kim Melanson
On today's show, we are joined by Kim Melanson who is a local lawyer in Ottawa. The bulk of the conversation is spent on the particulars of drafting a will and the considerations that have to go into this process. Kim also reminds just how important it is to have an up to date will, something many of us have heard but many of us do not act on! She talks about good times to update your documents and the ins and outs of naming guardians and executors before discussing inheritances, donations, and probate. We then turn to a few different types of wills, namely mutual will, mirror wills, and dual wills. Kim weighs in on the topic of 'will kits' and services that make the writing of a will appear a little easier. We also talk about some common errors that are made in the realm of estate planning before turning our attention to family law. Kim answers our questions common-law relationships, domestic contracts, divisions of assets and more, so for all of this from a true expert on Ontario legal matters, be sure to listen in with us today on the Rational Reminder Podcast! Key Points From This Episode: An important legal disclaimer about today's show. [0:02:21.9 ] What happens if you die in Ontario without a will? [0:03:13.6] Reasons that every adult needs to have a will. [0:05:34.7] How often to update a will throughout the course a lifetime. [0:07:32.7] Best practices for the naming guardians and executors. [0:08:34.6] Kim's recommendations for allocation of inheritances, donations, and probate. [0:14:14.4] Understanding dual wills, how they work and when they make sense. [0:19:14.3] Considering the use of 'will kits' and where these services might fall short. [0:21:39.6] Mutual and mirror wills; managing and policing of these documents. [0:23:19.1] Common and important errors made in estate planning. [0:25:19.4] The definition of a common-law relationship in Ontario. [0:26:50.6] Approaching the conversation and weighing the utility of domestic contracts. [0:30:48.6] The Family Law Act ruling on the division of assets ; exclusions and subtractions. [0:34:54.4] Kim's own definition of success and her hopes for a positive impact. [0:36:36.2]
S2 E80 · Thu, January 09, 2020
New Year, New Strategy: Unpacking the Concentrated Portfolio and Why Leveraging is No Joke
For our very first episode of 2020, we kick things off with some quick updates before sharing Cameron’s ten best financial planning strategies for the new year. After laying out some statistics about the great asset class returns that 2019 saw, we get into the wonderful listener questions we have been receiving over the break. Our first topic is about buying versus leasing cars, and Ben shares his thoughts on some of the reasons he recently converted to leasing. Our second question is about using credit to invest in a TFSA and acts as a great segue into our main topic for today’s show: implementing leverage in an investment portfolio. We discover some fascinating outputs given by a Monte Carlo simulation that compares the reliability of expected returns between diversified and concentrated investment portfolios. Surprisingly, the concentrated portfolio, while unpredictable, actually produces higher returns, even in its worst iterations. We start to think of concentrated portfolios as just another form of leveraging after comparing IUSV to VLUE ETFs, and then move on to the idea of time diversification as it relates to implementing leveraging in Lifecycle investing. As always, we end off with our bad advice of the week, with the 60/40 stocks and bonds model taking centre stage, so hop on and join us for the ride! Key Points From This Episode: Different corporate cultures and the value of instilling one in your workplace. [0:05:55 .0] A top ten list of strategies for financial planning in 2020. [0:08:48 .0] Asset class returns from 2019 which were very high across the board. [0:15:34 .0] Market unpredictability and why to buy a second-hand car but lease a new one. [0:19:18 .0] When to use your unsecured line of credit to invest in a tax-free savings account. [0:22:49 .0] Three things that structure a belief: values, biases, and models. [0:24 :51 .0] Ben’s model and expected returns of diversified vs concentrated portfolios. [0:27:49 .0] When concentrated portfolios work well: if high performing stocks are chosen. [0:34:01 .0] Ways to achieve higher factor exposure with IUSV vs VLUE ETFs. [0:35:47 .0] How unexplained portions of returns are the costs of leveraging via concentration. [0:40:40 .0] Why investing using leverage creates ‘time diversification’ and higher yields. [0:42:47 .0] Ways for young people to leverage their savings: concentration, derivatives, etc. [0:42:47 .0] Time decay o
S2 E79 · Thu, January 02, 2020
Financial Theory in Practice: Gaining Insight from Models with Marlena Lee
Today on the show we welcome the Head of Investment Solutions at Dimensional Fund Advisors, Marlena Lee. Marlena has a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago where she served as the TA to Eugene F. Fama. She has been at Dimensional for 11 years where a big part of her role is communicating what their research team is doing for the advisors and clients who are using their products. In this fascinating episode, we discuss and define models, factors, and the importance of understanding the risks involved with any investment decision. We talk about the many different reasons why stocks have different returns, and what the research says about underperformance and our expectation of positive premiums. Marlena has some interesting perspectives on whether risk or behavior drives higher returns, and shares some of her biggest lessons gained from working with Eugene Fama, and Dimensional Fund Advisors. Key Points from This Episode: The uses and limitations of models when making investment decisions. [0:02:30.0] Understanding the concept of ‘factors’ and why the word is evolving. [0:04:35.0] Why Dimensional doesn’t combine Price-to-Book with price sales and cashflows. [0:13:10.0] Marlena’s thoughts on whether risk or behavior drives higher returns. [0:15:15.0] The theoretical rationale for why we expect the value premium to be positive. [0:21:00.0] The role of company size in identifying differences in expected returns. [0:25:10.0] The split between dividend income and capital gains: What is the trade-off? [0:27:40.0] How to choose which Factor Model to use for your investing decisions. [0:31:15.0] The good arguments for owning bonds in your portfolio as a young investor. [0:35:00.0] Risk factors and equities when it comes to fixed-income and bonds versus stocks. [0:38:00.0] Questions investors should be asking about fees, risk, and portfolio worth. [0:41:48.0] Evidence that investors can use Yield Curve Inversions to time the market. [0:43:33.0] Marlena shares her most fascinating research topics and economic debates. [0:43:33.0] Marlena shares her biggest lessons gained from working with Eugene Fama. [0:48:13.0]
S2 E78 · Thu, December 26, 2019
2019 Retrospective: A Review and Discussion of the Year's Guest Episodes
As we see 2019 out and enter a new decade, we thought it only fitting to do a round-up of some of our shows this year. While we had 26 guests throughout the year, we chose 14 that best captured the sensible investing and education-focused spirit of our show. Some of the guests we have included on this special episode include Rob Carrick, from The Global Mail and leading authority on Canadian personal finance, Alexandra McQueen, a teacher at York University, who offers an explanation on the difference between financial economics and financial planning and Jonathan Clements, who explains why the hardest part of investing is keeping it simple. We also share clips about nipping overconfidence in the bud with Daniel Crosby and the next grand challenge of investing with Dave Nadig. This is just a snapshot of some of the incredibly generous people who have joined us this year. We hope that this show has contributed in some way to educating and helping investors make informed decisions and we are excited for what’s on the horizon. Happy New Year from all of us here at The Rational Reminder! Key Points From This Episode: Rob Carrick’s insights into whether Canadians have a good relationship with money. [0:04:02.0] Moira Somers’ tips on lifestyle changes to decrease financial stress. [0:07:51.3] Why ‘debunking the nonsense’ of financial advice is so important to Barry Ritholz. [0:10:23.0] The difference between financial economics and financial planning. [0:13:10.0] Discover the importance of having a clear belief system when it comes to investing. [0:16:51.0] Criteria other than performance to use to choose a quant fund according to Wes Gray. [0:19:47.0] Why the most difficult part of investing is trusting in simplicity. [0:23:14.0] Learn what has surprised David Butler the most about working with academics. [0:28:56.0] Ben explaining discount rates and factors to his mom. [0:31:58.0] All factors will underperform at some stage so embracing volatility is key. [0:40:14.0] What Jill Schlesinger has found the most common investment blind spots to be. [ 0:42:54.0] A look at what adverse selection means and how it applies to DIY investors. [0:44:40.0] Find out why Daniel Crosby calls overconfidence the ‘granddaddy’ of investment biases. [0:46:17.0] Even though investing is ‘solved,’ that does not mean people are good investors. [0:44:40.0]
S2 E77 · Thu, December 19, 2019
The Ins and Outs of Estate Planning: Making the Right Arrangements
On today’s episode, we are joined by Mark Goodfield of The Blunt Bean Counter blog to talk about estate planning and wills. Mark is a partner at BDO Canada, a national accounting firm and has created a wealth of content on investing, tax and the relationship between the two. He provides full-service wealth management, but does not advise on nor manage investments. Estate planning is a difficult task because you are confronted with your mortality, but it is hugely important because without a clear-cut plan, those left behind will have to deal with many complications in the midst of grieving. Mark has seen these complications with some of his own clients and the negative effects it has had on them. Along with conventional estate planning, such as drawing up a will, Mark also strongly advises transparency about your finances both with your partner and your children. This will not only ensure that there are no surprises, but also allow them to gain a level of financial literacy to deal with money, if they currently do not have that responsibility. He believes that people are not open enough when talking about money, which has implications long after they are gone. While estate planning is largely to do with finances and assets, Mark does not believe that money automatically correlates with success. This is why it is equally important to consider the legacy you leave behind in other ways, such as strong relationships and giving time to good causes. For this and much more, join us today! Key Points From This Episode: What it entails being the executor of an estate. [0:02:47.0] The implications of dying intestate. [0:04:32.0] Why it is important to disclose assets liable to probate tax. [0:07:27.0] Ensure that both spouses are relatively financially literate. [0:08:40.0] Why you should involve your adult children in financial conversations. [0:11:07.0] The two ways of consolidating your investment holdings [0:12:23.0] The tax, legal and personal implications of giving up ownership. [0:17:03.0] The distinction between known and presumed inheritance. [0:20:11.0] How to deal with potential uneven distribution in an estate. [0:23:23.0] When it makes sense to hire a corporate executor [0:25:49.0] The five ways that success is not always linked to money [0:27:06.0] How Mark has defined his own personal success [0:29:55.0] And much more! https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/77
S2 E76 · Thu, December 12, 2019
Risk Parity, Rental Properties, and the Smith Maneuver
Welcome to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. We kick off the show today with some great listener feedback before diving into the content of a new podcast by Dr. Laurie Santos called The Happiness Lab. In a recent episode of her show, she gets into the idea of human adaptability to fortuitous or catastrophic events. Our capacity to regulate back to a default state has big implications for dreams of greater happiness through wealth acquisition. Next, we move on to three great listener questions, which by the way will be replacing the investment topic segment of the show from now on. We answer questions about the merit of Ray Dalio’s all-weather portfolio, fall back rules for prospective rental property owners, and whether the Smith Manoeuvre is a good move for high-income earners. Next up you’ll hear some fascinating statistics about residential property value in relation to homeownership and income in Canada. Rob Carrick’s article about how tax-free savings accounts are the greatest Canadian financial success story of the century comes under our scrutiny after that. Finally, we end off with our bad advice for the week, in which we discuss the recent protest by investor advocates to speed up the banning process for early withdrawal fee-charging mutual funds. Tune in for your weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision-making for Canadians! Key Points From This Episode: Three great reviews from our listeners on iTunes. [0:00:15.0] Human adaptability and how bad we are at predicting our future emotions. [0:03:45.0] Expected returns concerning risk parity and factor investing approaches. [0:06:32.0] Cap rates, leverage, and asset-specific risk regarding investing in real estate. [0:14:02.0] The benefits of the Smith Manoeuvre for those willing to be leveraged investors. [0:20:10.0] Lifecycle investing and why young people should invest in stocks with leverage. [0:23:59.0] Homeownership, income, and residential property value statistics in Canada. [0:25:30.0] Different house prices for middle-income earners across Canada. [0:29:25.0] Statistics about TSFAs such as who has one versus who has an RRB. [0:30:53.0] How to use TSFAs in connection with other investments. [0:32:18.0] Rules and cautions about TSFAs such as why not to pick stocks in one. [0:32:38.0] Good reasons to use TSFAs such as when one has a low income and is young. [0:32:38.0] Why not to buy mutual funds that charge investors early withdrawal fees. [0:38:33.0] And much more! https://rationalreminder.ca/podcas
S2 E75 · Thu, December 05, 2019
Money & Behaviour: Understanding Investing from a Psychological Perspective with Daniel Crosby
On today’s episode, we have Dr. Daniel Crosby joining us for an insightful discussion about the psychology behind investing behaviour. Dr. Crosby is a behavioural finance expert and asset manager who applies his study of market psychology to help people better understand the financial decisions they make and to shed some new light on our ability to be rational. We talk about the inevitability of our emotions and how they impact our actions, but also how they might be leveraged for positive outcomes. As far as behavioural biases are concerned, overconfidence is by far the biggest threat to our investment success, but on the flip side, Dr. Cosby shares why, outside of investing, this trait can serve us really well. We enquire about his thoughts on how wealth changes people’s behaviour, on whether the FIRE Movement has some credibility to it, and he explains why having a strong theoretical underpinning is necessary when making decisions based on empirical data. Join us for some more science-based investment advice! Key Points From This Episode: The rationality of people and the possibility of leveraging emotion in finance. [0:02:26.0] Research that shows why you should work with a financial professional. [0:06:46.0] Behavioural biases and overconfidence as the most dangerous one. [0:11:05.0] Avoiding overconfidence by understanding that investment rules are different. [0:13:47.0] The extent to which people’s behaviour is affected by those around them. [0:17:58.0] How significant changes in net worth changes a person’s investment traits. [0:25:36.0] Thoughts on the FIRE Movement and how investors should look at risk. [0:28:06.0] Behavioural and risk-based factors and the necessity of a theoretical underpinning. [0:37:06.0] And much more!
S2 E74 · Thu, November 28, 2019
Playing with FIRE, Having a Belief System, and Term Life Insurance
Thanks for joining us for another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. We are proud to say that last week’s show received our highest amount of downloads yet, with 10 000 in its first week, so a big thank you to our listeners for that. We begin our discussion this week with some takeaways from the Playing With FIRE documentary about doing affordable things that feel good as a way of cutting costs. Next, we dive into some caller questions, discussing whether putting a downpayment on a rental property as a way of parking cash until you have enough to scale up to a bigger property would be a good idea. We also discuss whether it would make sense to invest in an individual Canadian bank stock based purely on the track record of our banks, which brings up some interesting points about how stocks work. We then dive into our main topic by beginning with some pointers on choosing the best belief system to evaluate investment strategies from, comparing our 5-Factor model with the Quality model and Jim Simons’s too. This leads into a deep dive we take into the legitimacy of the definition of quality given by a variety of American and Canadian funds. We share our main takeaways from this discussion with you which should prove very useful. Our planning advice for the week is around getting insurance for income replacement in retirement. Finally, we make a lot of good out of some bad bank advice by drawing from our recent research into reverse mortgages and annuities, so don’t miss out on this one! Key Points From This Episode: Lessons for cutting spending in the Playing with FIRE [0:05:30.0] Whether a rental property is a good hedge against rising real estate prices. [0:12:15.0] The effect that leverage would have on equity through market fluctuation. [0:13:50.0] How stock returns work and why not to invest in individual Canadian banks. [0:15:47.0] The challenge of choosing a belief system to evaluate investment strategies. [0:18:43.0] An explanation of the Market Efficiency model. [0:23:12.0] Using Occam's Razor to compare the 5-Factor model to the Quality model. [0:23:27.0] Assess products using US-listed funds, quantitative implementation, and more. [0:26:19.0] Evaluating different funds’ definitions of quality. [0:28:03.0] The clause about defensive positions which ruins VFVA and VVL products. [0:29:25.0] Why VLUE and QUAL funds have unreliable outcomes due to low holdings. [0:30:15.0] Fidelity FQAL is a waste of basis points due to insignificant factors loaded. [0:33:45.0] Why Fidelity FDVV shouldn’t use investment as a filter. [0:34:49.0] The main takeaways f
S2 E73 · Thu, November 21, 2019
Finance for Physicians: Personal Finance for High Income Earners with the Loonie Doctor
In today’s episode, we are joined by an exciting guest, The Loonie Doctor, of The Loonie Doctor blog to talk about his work not only on physician finance but also on holistic wealth. A physician by training, The Loonie Doctor has scaled back his practice to put more work into the blog and financial education. He masterfully balances precise technical advice on topics like tax alongside ‘softer’ aspects of money, such as how it affects relationships and other aspects of human capital. These insights are useful for many, but particularly for physicians who often to do not talk about money because of the nature of the work they do. The Loonie Doctor believes that in not talking about finance, it adversely affects physicians’ ability to perform at their peak. Finance, however, is not the only marker of wealth and The Loonie Doctor offers a holistic wealth framework in which wealth can be measured in a variety of ways. He also provides a host of other insights, such as advice for DIY investors, how to avoid social pressure around spending and much more. For all this, join us today! Key Points From This Episode: Some of The Loonie Doctor’s background and what lead him to starting the blog. [0:02:20.0] The two big reasons that it is important for physicians to talk to one another about money. [0:03:47.0] Wealth must be looked at holistically as it includes financial, human, economic and social capital. [0:06:15.0] How individual spending decisions compound and have a larger economic effect. [0:08:10.0] What can be done to build a healthy career that inspires and adds value to your life. [0:11:16.0] Which factors to account for when making long-term insurance decisions. [0:13:13.0] Reasons why whole-life insurance should not be a catch-all financial plan. [0:17:06.0] How to avoid social pressure and spending large amounts of money. [0:19:51.0] Financial decisions should be understood in relation to non-monetary value they add. [0:22:48.0] How The Loonie Doctor uses evidence effectively in investment decisions. [0:26:30.0] How to make the decision between DIY investing or using a financial planner. [00:29:16] Some of the lessons that The Loonie Doctor has learned having seen so much death. [00:34:28] Insights into The Loonie Doctor’s framework about asset location. [00:38:36]
S2 E72 · Thu, November 14, 2019
Interest Rates, Optimal Asset Location, and Reverse Mortgages
Today on The Rational Reminder Podcast, we talk about the relationship between asset allocation and outcome, the ins and outs of reverse mortgages, and finally, life insurance (or lack thereof) in Canada. However, we begin by sharing some interesting points covered in a recent Barry Ritholtz interview with Eugene Fama and David Booth for his Masters in Business show. We talk about how Booth started the first index fund and discovered the value factor, and quote some of Fama’s classic perspectives on behavioural finance and market bubbles. On the topic of asset location, Ben shares some of the findings of his recent research. He weighs in on his surprising discoveries about how to go about investing stocks and bonds in RRSP and taxable accounts to get the maximum yields. One of his main takeaways is the concept of putting bonds in your RRSP to intentionally trick yourself into a more aggressive portfolio. Regarding reverse mortgages, we begin with some definitions and explanations of why they might be beneficial, and then cover the question of whether or not they are the symptom of a ‘debt-addicted’ society. Finally, we end off by discussing a recent study by Policy Advisor which found some shocking facts about how Canadians are drastically underinsured. For all this and more, join us today! Key Points From This Episode: The difficulty of predicting stock returns based on rate changes. [0:02:27.0] Discussing the Barry Ritholtz interview with Eugene Fama and David Booth. [0:05:44.0] Booth started the first index fund and discovered of the value factor. [0:07:43.0] The fact of bubbles only being such in hindsight according to Fama. [0:08:51.0] Efficient markets aren’t necessarily rational. [0:09:18.0] The reason for risk-based and behavioural explanations for asset prices. [0:09:34.0] The value premium does not fluctuate in cycles according to Fama. [0:09:47.0] Considering the role of expected return in making investment decisions. [0:10:21.0] Ben’s video on market efficiency in relation to Fama’s perspectives on the matter. [0:10:36.0] Jim Simons and the mystery of the success of Renaissance Technologies. [0:11:35.0] How lead generation and aggressive sales shut Planswell down. [0:14:25.0] Vanguard is restructuring its fees and lowering its VXC. [0:17:02.0] Why pre-tax asset allocation doesn’t affect expected outcomes. [0:18:11.0] Bonds in an RRSP give a better expected outcome than in a taxable account. [0:20:56.0] Ben’s model endorses investing 75/25 in both the taxable and RRSP accounts. [0:21:20.0] Why putting stocks in an RRSP gives a great expected outcome. [0:23:40.0] What the highest yielding asset classes currently are. [0:23:54.0] Why a more aggressive portfolio as far as asset location is good. [0:28:29.0] How after-tax wealth remains the same thr
S2 E71 · Thu, November 07, 2019
The Future of ETFs: Understanding the Science of Investing with Dave Nadig
Today we welcome Dave Nadig onto the show, who joins us off the back of a brilliant presentation he gave at the Wealth Stack conference last month in Scottsdale. Dave is the founder of etf.com and has had key positions at FactSet, Barclays Global Investors, and Cerulli previously. Today Dave sits down to talk about the difference between ETFs and mutual funds, EFT product saturation, the coming of Direct Indexing and well as non-transparent active funds, and risk probabilities in different asset security options such as gold and stocks. He also debunks the myth that ETFs lead to a pricing bubble, highlighting 401(k)s as part of what might be creating this illusion of top-heaviness. He also has a brilliant perspective on trusting the junk bond through a seeming disconnect, which is really one of timing that actually creates opportunities for price discovery. Dave also spends some time on the subject of his belief that the science of investing is largely figured out. He believes therefore that human behavior and decision making through a lifetime investment path is far more mysterious, and highlights the need for good financial advisors in this respect. Join us to take a deep dive into the world of ETFs with Dave today! Key Points From This Episode: Dave’s perspectives on content and education in improving investor outcomes. [0:01:58.2] ETFs as a vehicle for trading multiple stocks, or wrappers for holding securities. [0:03:36.9] Authorized participants are what makes ETFs different from mutual funds. [0:04:46.1] Why the timing disconnect in junk bonds creates a vector for price discovery. [0:09:33.0] Why 401(k)s have caused the belief that ETFs are causing a price bubble. [0:25:50.0] How we have figured out investing but not financial advising. [0:14:40.8] Different ETFs benefit the market by suiting different investor classes. [0:17:49.6] The relationship between ETF indexes and material yields. [0:19:38.6] ETF value systems and the benefit of sticking to one index provider. [0:22:49.4] A slowing in ETF spreads and the coming of non-transparent active funds. [0:26:02.2] The evolution towards, and benefits of, direct indexing. [0:29:21.3] ETF as the most robust security short of stashing physical gold. [0:34:16.6] The value of financial advisors to investors who are more trustworthy nowadays. [0:38:10.2] Hourly financial advice rates work for those who don’t need advice long term. [0:41:07.2] The benefits of the AUM model as long as it is made transparent. [0:43:45.9] Charging for advice
S2 E70 · Thu, October 31, 2019
A Mixed Bag of Topics: DIY Investing, Home Country Investing, and RRSPs
On today’s episode, we cover a variety of topics, such as some tips for DIY investors, highlights from a conference Cameron recently attended, home country investment bias and whether it’s possible to have too much money in your RRSP. We begin first by talking about what DIY investors can do to ensure that they are investing to the best of their abilities. As people who work in investment daily, we often forget how tricky a terrain it can be to navigate if you are not armed with all of the knowledge, so we hope to pass some of it on to you. After that, we move onto the lessons Cameron learned from the Dimensional Advisors conference. We unpack ideas such as why he believes the world is ‘running towards factors,’ how Dimensional is leveraging academic research to inform their work along with some other highlights. Following on from that and picking up on what was spoken about at the conference, we delve into the pros and cons of home country investment bias. In some instances, this bias makes perfect sense, both from a returns and tax perspective and in other instances less so. We take you through some of these scenarios and what they mean for an investor looking to diversify. And finally, in the planning portion of our show, we tackle RRSPs, whether it is possible to overinvest in them, how they compare to other investments and much more. To learn more, join us today! Key Points From This Episode: Our team is growing and we are looking to add some extra positions at PWL. [0:01:32.0] There are many challenges that DIY investors face not having access to professional advice. [0:05:00.0] How to overcome asymmetries of financial knowledge between spouses and within families. [0:07:30.0] Some of the fee-only planners available in Canada that we recommend. [0:08:49.0] Robb Engen’s services and his discount for Rational Reminder listeners. [0:09:42.0] What factors are and why the world is ‘running towards’ using them. [0:12:38.0] Dimensional provides a framework for investing but does not guarantee answers. [0:14:09.0] Has the value-add factor become obsolete? [0:14:55.0] Highlights from Robert Novy-Marx's presentation at the conference. [0:16:18.0] Insights into and trends in the fixed income market. [0:20:31.0] What peer to peer bond trading is and why it has seen such huge growth? [0:21:17.0] All countries in the world, except for one, have a home country investment bias. [0:22:36.0] Factors to consider when deciding how much to allocate to home country investments. [0:23:58.0] Buying and trading costs and taxes are drivers to own more home-country stocks. <str
S2 E69 · Thu, October 24, 2019
Quantitative Value Investing: The Solution to Human Bias
Today we are joined by Wesley Gray who is the CEO of Alpha Architect, a firm in the US that specializes in concentrated factor strategies. Having completed his MBA and PhD at the University of Chicago – the Harvard of the finance world – Wes is an authoritative voice when it comes to quantitative research and factor investing. Incredibly, he took a 4-year break during his PhD, joined the marines and went to Iraq, and has also written several books. He went from value investor and stock-picker to having a strong quant focus and realized that it was possible to eliminate the human biases while still capturing the factor premiums. Our talk with Wes illuminates the nuanced nature of factor investing, behaviour versus risk-based factor premiums and active management versus passive and indexing. He discusses the process of collecting data for his PhD, the rules according to which they structure portfolios, how their boutique firm differs from larger advisor companies and who their ideal client is. Wes also shares his views on selecting the best quant model, hedge funds, value premiums and market-cap indexing. Join us for another insightful episode! Key Points From This Episode: Wesley’s experience as a stock picker and riding the wave of small-cap value. [0:03:31.0] The Value Investors Club as a data source to test stock-picking skills for his PhD. [0:06:43.0] From stock picker to a quant and realizing the need to eliminate biases. [0:09:38.0] The rules that govern how they build portfolios in his firm Alpha Architect. [0:14:26.0] Comparing Alpha Architect to Dimensional Fund Advisors and AQR. [0:17:13.0] Understanding reliability in the context of relativity and defining their ideal client. [0:22:28.0] Advice for retail investors about quant shops and choosing the best quant model. [0:26:55.0] Wesley’s view on hedge funds and their strategies. [0:32:57.0] Why education rather than assets should determine the active risk that is included in a portfolio. [0:36:24.0] Thinking about persistence in the context of a behavioural component. [0:38:03.0] Why value premiums are not dead and how it relates to behavioural theory . [0:43:22.0] The global explosion of market cap indexing and guidelines for investing. [0:47:28.0] And much more!
S2 E68 · Thu, October 17, 2019
This Week's Questions and Answers: Investment Ratios, Risk 101, Sustainability, Longevity, and More
Welcome back to the podcast everybody, we have another great round-up episode for you where we field questions that you sent in and cover a bunch of things we think you need to hear! We discuss how you should weight your stocks and bonds ratio and times that you could think about changing it, we also talk about index funds, Michael Burry and why his reputation is a bit overstated. Then we get into the different types of risk! We cover volatility, uncompensated risk, skewness, and inflation and help you think about each and the impact that they may have on your portfolio. The conversation then turns to planning, longevity, and sustainability and we talk about how to prepare for your last years cleverly and realistically. Goals are so important when laying out a sustainable strategy and we give you a bunch of questions to ask yourself to make the task a bit easier. We finish off with another edition of last wee's worst advice and this time around we are talking about some questionable actions and remarks from TD Ameritrade. For all this and more, join us on the Rational Reminder, today! Key Points From This Episode: Considering a bond to stock ratio and when you might adjust it. [0:01:22.7] Questions when switching to index investing and what to hold on to. [0:06:04.3] The Michael Burry question and how much index funds affect prices. [0:11:46.0] Risk 101; going through all the different types of risk. [0:18:07.6] Identifying which risk you are actually averse to and the results of this. [0:31:04.2] Planning and annuities; longevity risks and age-related questions to ask yourself. [0:32:48.1] Increasing the sustainability of your investments and the importance of goals. [0:36:46.9] Last week's worst advice! TD Ameritrade's confusing decisions around fees. [0:42:01.8] Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 . Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www
S2 E67 · Thu, October 10, 2019
The Pursuit of Finances and Fun with Jill Schlesinger
From a trader on Wall Street to a financial advisor with her own firm, our guest today, Jill Schlesinger, has accumulated a lifetime of knowledge in the investing and financial world. Today she is a household name and well-known media personality, appearing on a variety of CBS shows and hosting her own podcast called Jill on Money . But she is far more than an investment expert: she also has a ton of insight into people’s emotional and psychological responses to money, sharing with listeners those areas that people tend to struggle with most when it comes to their financial lives. Jill also weighs in on the current talk about the inverted yield curve and the coming recession and gives her educated opinion about money in marriage, DIY investing, robo-advisors, buying versus renting and the FIRE movement. Be sure to join in our conversation! Key Points From This Episode: Common blind spots that cause smart people to make poor financial decisions. [0:03:33.1] Starting off as a trader and learning how different trading and investing are. [0:05:09.1] A balanced perspective on the inverted yield curve and the predicted recession. [0:08:11.1] Understanding that investing is half science, half art. [0:12:10.1] Couples who think differently about money and teaching the younger generation. [0:17:06:1] Weighing up DIY investing and acquiring the services of a financial advisor. [0:21:11.1] Robo-advisors and the mass democratization of financial management. [0:25:46.1] Thoughts on whether to buy or rent a home and the FIRE Movement. [0:28:26.1] Interviewing Julie Andrews and a perspective on what it means to be successful. [0:35:50.1] And much more!
S2 E66 · Thu, October 03, 2019
Asset Allocation Funds, Private Equity IPOs, and The Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Welcome back to Rational Reminder Podcast! We kick off today’s episode with a discussion about the gap between investor performance and fund performance, the potential reasons why asset allocation funds produced a positive gap and the role that timing and volatility play in a negative behaviour gap. IPOs have been in the media a great deal lately – and not for particularly positive reasons and we tackle the topic with reference to specific companies. We also talk about Dimensional’s paper on the issues with IPOs since the early nineties and then we introduce you to The Fama Portfolio , a valuable resource that we will likely quote quite a bit from in the future! As we have mentioned before, the use of empirical findings is incredibly limited without a theoretical framework and we talk about why the conversation around the efficient market hypothesis needs to change and why general statements about markets are not to be paid too much attention to. We discuss the bad advice for the week and the importance of goal setting in retirement. Key Points From This Episode: The news item for the week: the gap between investor and fund performance. [0:01:33.0] Possible reasons why asset allocation funds produced a positive gap. [0:03:09.0] How timing and volatility play into the negative behaviour gap. [0:06:22.0] All the private equity venture capital IPOs that’s been covered in the media lately. [0:06:51.0] Companies who took large haircuts from their last private valuations before IPO. [0:08:05.0] How 1.3% of stocks delivered all the excess return between 1990 and 2018. [0:11:52.0] Dimensional’s findings regarding IPO issues in the States since 1992 . [0:13:01.0] The pyramid that should be used in making investment decisions. [0:16:06.0] The complex yet high-value insight to be gained from The Fama Portfolio [0:18:05:0] Why it is vital for empirical findings to be back up by a theoretical framework. [0:20:32.0] The paradox of the efficient market hypothesis and what markets are really like. [0:21:58.0] Goal setting in retirement, keeping focused and realizing that risk is always there. [0:25:51.0] Bad advice for the week about the deferred sales charge. [0:29:31.0] And much more!
S2 E65 · Thu, September 26, 2019
Investing Based on the Evidence Pyramid: A Few Lessons from the Medical Profession with Dr. Wendall Mascarenhas
Our guest today on the Rational Reminder Podcast is Dr. Wendall Mascarenhas. Wendall is a listener, DIY investor a medical professional. He actually reached out to us on Twitter and suggested this episode, a listener-centric discussion as well as one comparing the different approaches to evidence from the medical and the financial communities. We thought this was a great idea and the perspective that Wendall offers is very illuminating and thought-provoking. We discuss some of Wendall's own experience and background in both investing and medicine and from there go onto a more theoretical discussion of evidence and literature, asking the question why the financial industry is not more concerned with data. Wendall lays out the evidence pyramid and explains a few of its layers, we discuss a few tips and think about the extent to which DIY investors should involve themselves in their money with things like factor investing. Wendall also offers some of his thoughts on financial advice and the emergence of new information. For this fresh and insightful chat, be sure to join us! Key Points From This Episode: Why Wendall chose to reach out to us over Twitter. [0:03:01.8] Wendall's medical background and the perspective he brings to investing. [0:04:00.1] Index funds and diversified portfolios instead of active management. [0:06:41.7] The role of evidence and literature in medical prescriptions and treatment. [0:08:17.0] Trying to account for the differences in approach to medicine and investing. [0:10:58 .2] A description of the different levels of the evidence pyramid. [0:12:23.5] Five tips for do-it-yourself investing from our guest! [0:19:20.5] Should you worry about factors as a DIY investor? [0:24:24.0] Wendall's thoughts on the value of good financial advice. [0:26:17.7] How new information is circulated in the medical community. [0:30:11.0] Why expert opinion is the least valuable type of evidence. [0:31:49.7] Wendall's definition of success in his life . [0:35:07.9] And much more!
S2 E64 · Thu, September 19, 2019
Back to the Basics: Dividends and Explaining Factors to Benjamin’s Mom
Michael Burry says we should get out of indexing. Jim Cramer says it’s time to jump in. These are interesting times in the world of investing! On today’s episode, we discuss Burry’s recent claims about passive investing and advise on a plan of action should he turn out to be right. Benjamin recently posted a new video on dividends, and we have a conversation about the responses the video triggered and give some good reasons for our stance about the irrelevance of dividends. We also talk about negative interest rates, how they affect that market and explain why it’s not a good idea to do day trading for a living. In the second part of the episode, we are thrilled to be joined by Benjamin’s mom to whom we will attempt to explain the ABCs of factors. Following many requests from listeners to discuss factors in layman’s terms, we hope that our explanation today will shed some light on the topic! Key Points From This Episode: The irrelevance of dividends and the debate our video provoked. [0:01:54.0] How much a portfolio should be tilted towards each factor and the overlaps. [0:05:57.0] A balanced perspective on Michael Burry’s assertions about index funds. [0:09:43.0] What you should do if Michael Burry is right and why you should do it anyway. [0:15:25.0] How negative interest rates affect a global fixed income allocation. [0:17:57.0] Some interesting facts about day trading for a living and why to stay away. [0:22:05.0] Unpacking the terms “discounted cash flow” and “discount rate”. [0:26:58.0] How the risk of a stock is determined and what the market mechanism does. [0:30:37.0] Where the factors come from and the different types of risk. [0:33:26.0] Using factors to explain the differences in returns between two portfolios. [0:40:03.0] The crux of why you want a diversities portfolio. [0:41:20.0] And much more!
S2 E63 · Thu, September 12, 2019
Sustainable Investing: A Philosophical and Environmental Perspective on Your Money, with Tim Nash
We have a really special episode in store today as we welcome Tim Nash, the Sustainable Economist! Tim shares a vast amount of knowledge and ideas with us on how investors wishing to put their money where their heart is can go about investing more ethically and sustainably. We hear about Tim's journey into investing and economics and how he wound up doing the work he currently does, helping investors clarify where their money is going and how to put it portfolios that are more aligned with their beliefs. He unpacks how these ideas and actions can have an impact and what it would take for some kind of systemic shift towards more sustainable industry and companies. We discuss the use of other modes of change as well as the personal practice of investors versus the placement of their money. Tim does such a great job of explaining how he goes about assessing different companies and portfolios and filtering which meet the criteria that he would suggest to his audience. The last part of the episode contains a really impressive argument from Tim around how investing this way can also be beneficial for strictly economic reasons and that it would suit all people to consider the factors he is espousing. For an inspirational chat with a truly great guest, listen in today! Key Points From This Episode: Tim's education and how he became The Sustainable Economist. [0:01:49.6] The actual service that Time provides for his clients and audience. [0:04:18.1] How does this type of sustainable investing have an impact? [0:05:41.9] Considering the efficacy of other means to bring about change. [0:11:06.4] Squaring personal practices and investing principles of an individual. [0:14:37.3] The criteria that Tim uses to assess items in a portfolio. [0:21:17.1] Tim unpacks his experiences of anarchist portfolios! [0:28:54.8] Allowing ethical investors to feel good about their portfolios. [0:31:50.6] The usefulness of so-called ESG screening for finding robust companies. [0:33:41.3] The twofold imperative to ethical and sustainable investing. [0:38:11.2] The product landscape for investors building sustainable portfolios. [0:40:57.8] How Tim helps people through his fee for service planning. [0:45:48.2] Tim's own definition of success! [0:47:44.6] And much more!
S2 E62 · Thu, September 05, 2019
The Rational Round Up: Tax Loss Selling, Gold, Michael Burry and More!
Welcome back to another episode of the Rational Reminder! We are doing another variety show for all of you and this week we cover some news, current affairs, questions and of course our staple bad advice of the week! We start the show looking at the restructuring of swap-based ETF's from Horizons before looking at Michal Burry's latest commentary and predictions. From there we move onto John Rekenthaler's recent article on Morningstar about Canadian financial advice and what it is lacking. We discuss gold and why it is still not a good investment choice for almost all situations and even draw on some inspiring words from Warren Buffett on the subject! The conversation then turns to tax-loss selling; we unpack how it is possible to use this tactic to your advantage and look at some of the specifics that it entails. Lastly. we cover a particularly bad piece of advice that had the Twitter community up in arms recently! So for all of this and a bit more, listen in with us today! Key Points From This Episode: Horizons' restructuring of swap-based ETF's and what this means. [0:01:48.5] Michael Burry says that index funds are creating a bubble in large stocks. [0:05:2] 'Canadian Financial Advice, Good Intentions but Bad Results'. [0:07:51.4] Warren Buffet's classic gold explanation from a while back. [0:11:17.7] The example of Brazil; hyperinflation and the price of gold. [0:14:38.2] Tax loss selling and knowing the ins and outs of how much you are paying. [0:21:37.5] Looking at some examples of tax loss selling and how they play out. [0:26:32.6] The best hypothetical times to do a tax loss sale. [0:31:19.8] This week's bad advice! [0:33:50.8] And much more!
S2 E61 · Thu, August 29, 2019
Ted Seides: Much More Than a Betting Man
We have another phenomenal guest joining us on the podcast today. You might know Ted Seides from his famous bet with Warren Buffett or, more recently, from his widely successful Capital Allocators Podcast. Ted is what we would call a classically impressive guy, having studied at both Ivy League frontrunners Yale and Harvard and having founded Protégé Partners, an asset management and advisory firm that specializes in hedge funds. In addition, he has trained under the legendary David Swensen, and together with his experience and training, has become a big name in the investing world. On this episode, he discusses the wealth of knowledge he has gained from David, the criteria for selecting a fund manager and how to approach evaluating the performance of that manager over time. Contrary to the assumptions about his views on index funds, he explains what he believes about them and whether he thinks the market is likely to become saturated. We then get into a conversation about the investment habits of the wealthy, why relationships are so important in this business and why he would not make the same bet again. Don’t miss out on this exciting conversation with Ted Seides! Key Points from This Episode: What Ted learned from David Swensen and his core beliefs about investing. [0:03:06.0] The foremost criteria when selecting a manager and establishing your beliefs. [0:05:04.0] Why endowment institutions and strategies are only beneficial for a select few. [0:10:59.0] Formulating a hypothesis to measure the outcomes of your manager. [0:13:31.0] Whether retail investors saving for retirement should consider hedge funds. [0:15:46.0] Ted’s bet with Warren Buffett and his actual take on index funds. [0:19:02.0] Fee compression in hedge funds and whether the market can become index saturated. [0:20:12.0] Why there is still a significant investment in actively managed mutual funds. [0:24:33.0] Observations about how people invest their money as their wealth increases. [0:26:52.0] The importance of relationships in the world of investing. [0:29:40.0] How the famous bet affected Ted and why he wouldn’t do it again. [0:31:12.0] More about his Capital Allocators Podcast and how it has surprised him. [0:36:39.0] And much more!
S2 E60 · Thu, August 22, 2019
Valuation Theory and the Imminent Recession
Welcome back to the Rational Reminder everybody! We are taking this episode to round up all the recent goings-on and tackle a few residual issues that we believe need some attention. We start off by contemplating how much we have both been learning with the wealth of guests that come through our doors. We would never be confronted with this many ideas and inspiration if it were not for this great platform on which we find ourselves! From there we go on to discuss all the recent talk of a recession and the many assumptions that seem to be being made. Here at the Ration Reminder Podcast, we want to try and dissuade you from thinking you can easily predict the movement of the markets or believe those that say they can. It is just not that straightforward. Most often, a recession is only noticeable during or even after it has occurred. Rather stick to a good, diversified strategy without trying to guess and gamble on questionable information. The conversation also covers the portfolio changes from Wealthsimple before Benjamin does what he does best and explains valuation theory for all of us! So for all this and a few more goodies, be sure to listen in! Key Points from This Episode: Effects of hosting this podcast on our own money minds. [0:00:25.4] The impending recession that everyone is talking about. [0:03:24.5] Wealthsimple portfolio changes this week and the paper they published. [0:08:29.4] Risk, return, low volatility, and balancing these in your favour. [0:17:32.2] The theoretical underpinning of factor investing and valuation. [0:18:39.8] Fama and French's Five Factor Model. [0:26:02.5] Retiring early; spending rules for the FIRE movement. [0:28:18.2] More viable alternatives for saving and preparing for retirement smartly. [0:33:21.6] This week's bad advice! [0:35:28.2] And much more!
S2 E59 · Thu, August 15, 2019
Financial Economics and Annuities: Rational Planning for Retirement
Welcome to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast! We have a fantastic guest joining us today to talk about annuities, or in more general terms, pensionization. Alexandra Macqueen is certified financial planner, who is also a financial author, editor, York University educator, consultant, and speaker. Alexandra co-wrote a book with Dr. Moshe Milevsky called Pensionize Your Nest Egg: How to Use Product Allocation to Create a Guaranteed Income for Life , an incredible resource on our topic today. In this episode, Alexandra talks about the important distinction between financial economics and financial planning, the former being much more rational and quantitative than the latter, which is largely based on folklores and rules of thumb. We discuss the concepts of retirement sustainability quotient (RSQ) and financial legacy value (FLV) and the impact they have on each other, before diving into explaining what annuities are and how they are meant to function. She also advises on the use of the GIC ladder, copycat annuities, and considerations for deferring your CPP. Don’t miss out on this insightful conversation! Key Points from This Episode: The distinction between financial economics and financial planning. [0:02:38.8] Product allocation and how it relates to pensionization. [0:04:15.8] The retirement sustainability quotient (RSQ) and what it measures. [0:06:46.3] How the RSQ affects your financial legacy value (FLV). [0:07:45.7] The idea of eliminating the probability of ruin from your portfolio. [0:09:39.6] What exactly is an annuity and how does it work? [0:10:15.3] The type of person and age group that annuities appeal to. [0:13:53.2] Why allocating to an annuity can allow you to spend more on your overall capital. [0:16:20.0] The problem with the folklore rules around appropriate withdrawal rates. [0:19:47.8] Suggestions for annuities for wealthy people under 50. [0:23:08.3] Why a GIC ladder is not a guaranteed stream of income. [0:26:04.9] Defining copycat annuities and their accompanying issues. [0:30:57.6] CPP and the impact of deferring it at retirement. [0:33:52.4] And much more!
S2 E58 · Thu, August 08, 2019
The Ins and Outs of Real Estate: Mortgage Rate, Rentals, REITs and Variable Annuities
On today’s episode, Benjamin and Cameron are talking real estate, specifically mortgage rates and REITs. For the first time since the early 90s, fixed mortgage rates are lower than variable ones, which have always been the popular choice. However, due to the fact that Canada’s yield curve is inverted, short term rates higher than their long-term counterparts. This is not usually the case, which makes it a great time to consider a fixed term mortgage, bearing in mind that it requires some lifestyle considerations. Benjamin and Cameron also provide some insights into the rental property market changes since 2015, with some astonishing figures. They then discuss REITs, which many think should be considered their own asset class. While it is often recommended to have REITs in your portfolio, research is starting to show that you are taking a great deal of risk you are not being compensated for. This means you may be better off investing in other options such as high exposure bonds which bear much less risk. For all this and much more, join us today! Key Points From This Episode: Why fixed-rate mortgages are now lower than variable-rate ones. [0:03:58.0] Interest rates went up, but the shape of the yield curve changed as well. [0:06:25.0] Property prices have almost doubled relative to rent since 2015. [0:07:12.0] What a rental wage is. [0:12:48.0] What a REIT is and the benefits of investing one in your portfolio is. [0:17:05.0] Why the risk of a REIT may not be justifiable. [0:21:01.0] Variable annuity investors routinely outperform mutual fund investors [0:26:23.0] And much more!
S2 E57 · Thu, August 01, 2019
A Masterclass in Business: Money Philosophy with Barry Ritholtz
On today's episode we are so happy to be joined by none other than Barry Ritholtz! As the founder and CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, host of the Masters in Business Podcast and regular financial blogger for more than 15 years, Barry is someone we have been dying to speak to on the show and who we have taken loads of inspiration from over the years. We talk to Barry about his own podcast which has been going strong for years now and is just about to reach its 250th episode! He also explains the beginnings of his firm and how his role has evolved in it since it started. From there, the conversation turns to the different parts of an investing philosophy we and Barry pretty much share and we ruminate on the state of the financial industry in US and Canada currently. We all feel that it is surprising that brokerage firms still find business in this day and age, when it has been shown so many times, for an extended period of time to be a far inferior business model for clients. Barry offers some pretty sensible advice on how to pursue financial growth in the long term and shares how RWM approaches client acquisition. For all of this and so much more, be sure not to miss this great episode! Key Points From This Episode: Why Barry feels he has the easiest gig in podcasting. [0:03:17.6] The inspiration behind starting the firm and Barry's day to day work. [0:05:53.9] The RIA model versus the brokerage model in investment firms. [0:12:45.4] How Barry and the firm have chosen to run their business model. [0:16 :03] Specific portfolios at Ritholtz and the philosophy behind them . [0:21:18.8] It's no good breaking a record if you crash straight after! [0:28:13.1] How Barry and the firm find customers and the client conversations they have. [0:34:04.2] Behavioral counseling as RWMC's biggest value proposition. [0:42:34.8] Barry's opinions on robo-advisors and the factors to consider. [0:47:06.2] Why are there still commission based advisors in 2019? [0:50:38.9] Things Barry has changed his mind about since starting the firm in 2013. [0:55:09.9] Small cap tilts, lower rates and the longer term vision that is necessary. [1:01:11.1] How Barry defines success in his life. [1:07:01.5] And much more!
S2 E56 · Thu, July 25, 2019
GIC's, Portfolio Questions and Education Saving Plans: What's Right for You in Your Retirement and Education Preparations?
On the show today we are going back to basics, just Cameron and Benjamin going through some useful topics for your financial benefit! We start talking about GIC's and the article on MoneySense that led to this conversation. GIC's have a somewhat mix and match reputation, one which we believe has been often misunderstood and misrepresented. We try to show in which ways people have been misled into thinking that GIC's are the best option when, we believe, they are not. From there we turn to more general portfolio ideas, comparing the performance of the S&P 500 over time and drawing on a very useful study that illuminates the index's limitations. Our last topic for today is around saving for college and RESP's or registered education saving plans. We talk about asset allocation, how to think about starting and best practices when drawing on these funds. We finish off the show with some bad advice regarding dividend investing that actually referenced a video we made! So for all and a bunch more great stuff, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: Our recent summer travels and getting away from it all! [0:03:02.4] The article by Jonathan Chevreau that sparked part of today's discussion. [0:05:46] GIC's, long term returns and the financial implications of your choices now. [0:07:15.2] Reasons why returns on GIC's can be misleading in the short term. [0:11:02.7] The S&P 500's performance against other portfolio options. [0:13:56.3] Market drops and risk appetites during panic periods. [0:19:15.2] Saving and drawing on college funds and education plans. [0:22:40.2] Asset allocation and the best way to think about covering costs. [0:27:41.1] Withdrawing funds and making the most of unused college savings. [0:31:21.3] This week's bad advice! An argument about dividend investing. [0:33:30.8] And much more!
S2 E55 · Thu, July 18, 2019
Being Frugal: The Crux of Financial Happiness
Joining us on the podcast today is Jonathan Clements, former Wall Street Journal columnist, founder of HumbleDollar and author of From Here to Financial Happiness , How to Think About Money and several other books. Jonathan is a well-known name in the world of personal finance as he has been giving financial advice for more than 20 years. Today he talks about the role of stories in shaping people’s understanding of and relationship with money by sharing an anecdote from his own childhood. He discusses how his investment philosophy has changed in favor of index funds, why investing is much simpler than people tend to believe and then he gives us a glimpse into his own investment portfolio and the financial decisions he is making in his personal life. Jonathan also offers a balanced perspective on home ownership from an investment point of view, advises on the things worth spending money on and then we debate the age-old question of whether money can in fact make you happy. Key Points from This Episode: Working as a financial journalist on Wall Street for more than 20 years. [0:02:01.0] How old family stories taught Jonathan to be thrifty and careful with money. [0:02:28.0] How his philosophy and the investment world has changed over the years. [0:06:09.0] The hardest part of investing is accepting how simple it is! [0:07:39.0] Why Jonathan tilts towards value in his own investment portfolio. [0:11:12.0] Considering the many sides to home ownership as an investment. [0:13:57.0.] How his partial retirement has affected how he thinks about his portfolio. [0:17:43.0] What HumbleDollar is about and dealing with the human side of money. [0:19:58.0] Three things to do to get more happiness from your money. [0:24:17.0] What people should be talking more about in finance. [0:30:46.0] And much more!
S2 E54 · Thu, July 11, 2019
The S&P Dow Jones & S&P 500: A Brief History
Today on the Rational Reminder Podcast we have joining us Dr. David Blitzer who is the Managing Director and Chairman of the S&P Dow Jones index committee. He has been there from the time when indexes were barely even being traded and the first time S&P Futures began trading, and since then, indexing has turned into the massive phenomenon we all know today. Indeed, S&P indexes were (and still is) at the center of this explosion. Today Dr. Blitzer talks to us about the early days of indexing and shares some of his ideas about why indexing became so popular. We also discuss the possible reasons why some people still choose actively managed funds and the effect that the abundance of research has had on their dwindling appeal. Ever wondered where the rapid growth in indexing will end up? What happens after indexing? Can indexing become too big? Be sure to join us for this masterclass on indexing! Key Points From This Episode: When Dr. Blitzer joined S&P and how index investing has changed over time. [0:03:33.0] The relationship between an S&P and a product manufactured like Vanguard. [0:06:03.0] Considering the reasons why indexing became so popular and the role of ETFs. [0:10:11.0] How research has impacted people’s perception about active management. [0:12:54.0] Some theories on why it is so difficult to beat the S&P 500. [0:18:13.0] How the change to indexing has affected smaller markets such as Canada. [0:25:39.0] Dr. Blitzer’s thoughts on factor weighting. [0:30:28.0] The line where we cross over from passive to active investing. [0:32:18.0] Can indexing become too big, and what’s next? [0:41:00.0] What Dr. Blitzer ascribes his success to. [0:45:26.0] And much more!
S2 E53 · Thu, July 04, 2019
The Real Value of Financial Advice: An Empirical Perspective
Live in the studio with us today is Preet Banerjee, renowned speaker, personal finance expert, consultant and author of Stop Overthinking Your Money. He is also the founder of MoneyGaps, a hybrid-advisor platform designed to help financial advisors make financial planning accessible to more Canadians. Having done a reality TV show and with a popular YouTube channel, Preet is on the forefront of the finance world, and he is here to talk to us about the findings that his DBA research has produced. He discusses his endeavour of seeking empirical evidence for the actual contribution that advisors are making to the financial lives of people, and we talk about the crucial difference between robo and human advisors and how people’s diverse needs demand diverse solutions. This is a really insightful conversation with someone who knows what he’s talking about, so be sure to listen in on this one! Key Points from This Episode: What is the value of financial advice? Preet shares about his DBA research. [0:02:33.0] Preet’s history in finance and how he gained a more objective perspective. [0:05:13.0] Speculating around the findings and more about his research design. [0:06:41.0] The relationship between wealth and financial advice: correlation or causation? [0:11:11.0] Measuring the performance of someone who uses no advisor. [0:14:17.0] How the financial security of the home you grew up in affects your finances. [0:16:26.0] Building the model to score financial wellbeing and the challenges that surfaced. [0:20:20.0] Paying more attention to aspects outside of portfolio management. [0:25:09.0] MoneyGaps as a platform for affordable financial planning. [0:29:04.0] How the value of human advisors depends on each individual consumer. [0:33:34.0] The core benefits of human advisors. [0:34:44.0] And much more!
S2 E52 · Thu, June 27, 2019
A Closer Look at the CPPIB Report: What You Need to Know
Welcome to this week’s Rational Reminded Podcast! Today we’re diving into the recent CPPIB report that portrays actively managed funds in the most optimistic light. But before you trade in your index funds, we look at the methodologies and calculations employed by the report and show why there are a number of issues with their findings. Benjamin shares his proposal for an alternative analysis that employs a more risk appropriate benchmark, and we discuss why the report can be seriously misguiding. We also talk about the transitional issues that have result from MD Financial being taken over by Scotiabank and why some MD Financial clients have not been too pleased with it all. We tackle the issue of value versus growth stocks and look at a number of research papers that could explain the developments that have taken place in this regard. Nearing retirement and unsure when to take your CPP? Be sure to join us to find the answer to this complex question! Key Points From This Episode: The positive report about the active management strategy of the CPPIB. [0:01:19.0] Why there is a red flag about the calculations done for this report. [0:03:19.0] Benjamin’s alternative analysis and how he built up a more risk appropriate benchmark. [0:05:43.0] The problem of CPP comparing a relatively safe portfolio with a much higher risk one. [0:09:02.0] CPPIB’s argument for why they are investing in illiquid asset classes. [0:11:31.0] A few repercussions of MD Financial being taken over by Scotiabank. [0:16:16.0] Does value still make sense? Looking at the data of value relative to growth. [0:19:45.0] An overview of three research papers on on the overreaction hypothesis. [0:25:10.0] The complex question of when to take your CPP and when it’s better to wait. [0:33:27.0] And much more!
S2 E51 · Thu, June 20, 2019
Writing About Money: Advocating for Consumer Rights with Ellen Roseman
On the Rational Reminder today we are joined by Ellen Roseman from The Toronto Star, who has been writing and working in the realm of Canadian personal finance and consumer rights for many years. We have a great chat about her work history, what has driven her career and what motivates her to continue to pursue her path of creating financial awareness for more people. We discuss the position of advocacy for consumer rights and how that translates into her everyday work, her most important and recent areas of action, the classes she is involved in teaching and her most recent book, titled Fight Back. Ellen weighs in on the topics of financial advice and how to seek out the best of it, actively managed funds and how she is involved FAIR Canada. We finish off with a fun bit about how Ellen found herself blocked on Twitter by Suze Orman and Dave Ramsey! For all this and more, listen in today! Key Points From This Episode: What it means to Ellens to be an advocate for consumer rights. [0:02:43.1] The most recent cause that Ellen has been championing through her work. [0:05:4] Three tips from Ellen's most recent book, Fight Back . [0:07:59.0] The class Ellen teaches at UFT, Investing for Beginners. [0:14:18.9] Ellen's attitude towards seeking advice and when it is necessary. [0:16:19.6] Bad investment advice and the cases that crop up the most for Ellen. [0:18:18.5] Some of the results of Ellen's course and how it is laid out. [0:21:05.4] Are actively managed mutual funds still holding the majority of Canadian assets? [0:26:03.2] A little about FAIR Canada and Ellen's work there. [0:27:55.4] Ellen's recent Twitter activity which led to get her getting blocked by Suze Orman. [0:32:14.5] A definition of success from our wonderful guest! [0:38:14.0] And much more!
S2 E50 · Thu, June 13, 2019
Tax Tales: Considering The Tax Implications Of Asset Allocation ETFs
Welcome back to the Rational Reminder Podcast! We’re nearing our one-year anniversary, and we are still getting more listeners every episode and we have some incredible guests lined up for you! Today we are tackling more technical issues and some interesting topics overall. We explore the tax implications of VGRO or any of the asset allocation ETFs of Vanguard and iShares and discuss the scenarios in which it might be more advisable to configure the asset allocation that you want using a different form of fixed income and equities. We compare the tax rates on various funds and then dive into some literature on currency hedged global fixed income and what key role players have to say about diversification and dispersion. The spotlight is then diverted to disability insurance and we talk over whether it really is a necessity, what statistics show, and we advise you on the specific points to consider when looking for the right cover plan. For all of this and more, be sure to join us for this episode! Key Points From This Episode: The listener question about the tax efficiency of VGRO that keeps popping up. [0:01:58.0] The tax issues with premium bonds and how interest rates impact their value. [0:02:41.0] The benefits of the different ETFs that VGRO gets its bond market exposure from. [0:05:34.0] Buying VEQT or other equity ETFs as an alternative to buying VGRO. [0:07:49.0] Comparing the tax rates on funds and why tax efficiency is a vital consideration. [0:09:31.0] Some interesting research findings on currency hedged global fixed income. [0:12:21.0] Understanding the tax, liquidity and risk implications of GICs. [0:14:16.0] Is it possible to over-diversify? And important points on dispersion. [0:16:31.0] Considering disability insurance, what data shows and what do look for. [0:22:47.1] And much more! Read more on GICs replacing bonds here: https://www.pwlcapital.com/should-gics-replace-bonds-in-a-portfolio/
S2 E49 · Thu, June 06, 2019
Insights into Horizons: Continuous Innovation in the Canadian ETF Market
On today’s episode, we are joined by Jaime Purvis, Executive Vice President at Horizons ETFs. Having been the company’s third ever employee, he has worked at the company for nearly 24 years and provides an in-depth inside look into how Horizons has come to have the reputation of being ahead of the curve in the Canadian ETF market. He takes us through some of Horizons history, how they got into ETFs, as well as giving some insights into how these products were chosen. Given the instability of the market today, it is important not only to innovate, but also to leverage experience when creating ETFs, which is what Horizons seeks to do. With such high levels of unpredictability, they aim to provide their clients with as much knowledge as they can to make informed decisions, especially given the Canadian national budget proposal, which will likely affect ETFs across the board greatly. Along with this, Horizons has also created a variety of ETFs, based on products they anticipate will soon play a huge role in daily lives, such as robotics and AI. Despite casting this wide net, these decisions are still made with careful consideration, drawing on the company’s extensive knowledge pool. This ability to continually innovate has put them at the forefront of the Canadian ETF market. To gain more insight into the world of ETFs and Horizons, join us today! Key Points From This Episode: How Horizons has swap structure works and why these swaps should not be feared. [0:06:55.0] What the rationale behind the Canadian government swap-based ETF targeting is. [0:11:45.0] What the redeemer’s methodology is and the effect that is has. [0:16:08.0] What some of the risks associated with the swap-based ETF structure are. [0:23:56.0] The situations where it does not make sense to have a swap-based ETF. [0:28:43.0] How Horizons chooses their thematic ETFs. [0:30:35.0] What the deciding factors in closing a stock down are. [0:36:29.0] Why it is becoming increasingly difficult for starter ETFs to launch. [0:39:20.0] And much more!
S2 E48 · Thu, May 30, 2019
Current Investment Topics: Market Efficiency, Grossman-Stiglitz Paradox, and the Home Ownership Debate
Welcome back to your weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision making for Canadians. On today’s episode we kick it off with a combo of a current topics, answering listener questions, and discussing the bad advice of the week. We then dive into the huge shift in the industry in the US in terms of fund flows into index funds out of active mutual funds. When you look at the overall US market cap, 13% of it is in index funds. This means that price discovery is being done by 87%. Inside this episode we unpack what that means for investments overall and how it differs in the Canadian market. We then take to a deeper discussion on our portfolio management topic of the week, which is looking at the relationship between price and future returns. We know that when prices are high, future returns tend to be low, so we dive into how that affects the context of pricing. We also take a look at the AQR study, Vanguard’s dollar cost averaging versus lump sump study, and of course our planning topic for the week; renting versus buying a home and understanding the unrecoverable costs. Join us today and be sure not to miss out on today’s incredible episode! Key Points From This Episode: Answering a listener question: using dividend stocks to pay down your mortgage. [0:03:41.0] Busting the beliefs and concepts of this week’s worst investment advice. [0:06:33.0] The shift in the US market place: index funds versus active mutual funds. [0:11:27.0] Understanding the Grossman-Stiglitz Paradox: market efficiency. [0:15:40.0] Portfolio management topic of the week: relationship between price and future returns. [0:18:19.0] Discussing the Vanguard study: Lump sum versus dollar cost averaging. [0:24:18.0] A viral topic: understanding the debate of whether to rent or to buy a house. [0:28:28.0] And much more!
S2 E47 · Thu, May 23, 2019
The Used Car Business: Inventory, Margins and Customer Experience, with Brad Boehme
Today we’re talking about a slightly different topic from the usual – used cars. We have Brad Boehme joining us and he is the Dealer Principal/General Manager at MyCar, a successful used cars dealership that has three different locations around the country. Brad shares with us how he got into the industry, how the 2008 financial crisis helped them to start the business, where they source their inventory from and why the profits are in the buying more than in the selling. Client experience is a high priority for them, and he tells us how they approach negotiations with clients and what he advises listeners to consider before leasing or buying a car. Tune in today to learn more about the business of used cars! Key Points From This Episode: An overview of Brad’s education and how he got into the car business. [0:1:46.0] The different roles that taught Brad about remarketing and the ins and out of the trade. [0:02:54.0] Why the financial crisis of 2008 was an opportunity to start a used car business. [0:4:10.0] What volume of inventory they typically have between the three locations. [0:05:41.0] Where they source their cars from and why the buying process is so important. [0:07:23.0] The digital platforms they use to buy and sell and what the process involves. [0:08:55.0] How car dealerships make profits, where the margins are and understanding lot packs. [0:12:12.0] How they approach negotiations with clients and prioritize customer experience. [0:14:57.0] Buying and leasing new cars and how residuals work. [0:16:42.0] Factors to consider when you want to buy out a leased vehicle. [0:20:27.0] Weighing up whether it is best to lease or to buy used. [0:21:35.0] Advice for buying used cars and what protection there is for consumers. [0:24:58.0] The cars that are investments and that have a good growth rate on them. [0:29:42.0] The aspects of the business that are most rewarding to Brad and how he defines success. [0:31:25.0] And much more!
S2 E46 · Thu, May 16, 2019
Raw Truth of Investment: Why the Best Investment Advisors Cannot Beat a Dart
Welcome back to the podcast everybody! Today we are running through our weekly topics as usual, giving you the best, worst and everything in between on investing in Canada. We are talking a bit about the really interesting and important SOHN Investment Conference and what goes on there. We also go into why random stock picks, chosen by a thrown dart, beat Wall Street's elite and what we can learn from the SPIVA Report. From there we go pretty deep into the topic of low volatility and how its different permutations and readings can impact our investments. In our planning section of the program we talk about returns and how Canadian investing fits into the global landscape. Lastly, we finish off with our segment on the worst advice of the week, where we evaluate a claim that new kinds of ETFs with a new kind of value are what is needed in the market currently. For all this and more, be sure to join us today! Key Points From This Episode: A little about the SOHN Investment Conference. [0:01:51.3] Why the 'best' investment advisors cannot beat a dart. [0:04:42.4] Active funds versus index funds and the SPIVA report. [0:06:59.7] Low volatility stocks, a definition and understanding them better. [0:13:18.2] The most important metrics in the low volatility equation. [0:19:01.1] Average returns on mutual funds over time. [0:24:42.6] The worst advice of the week! [0:31:56.3] And much more!
S2 E45 · Thu, May 09, 2019
Preparing for a Changing World: Advice that Sticks with Moira Somers
Today on the show we are joined by Dr. Moira Somers, author of the book Advice That Sticks and expert on neuroscience, advising and leadership. Dr. Somers does a great job of unpacking all the different parts of her job and career and a multitude of topics from the financial advice field. She explains what it means to be a wealth psychologist and who makes up the bulk of her clientele. We then discuss the value of good, reliable financial advice and why most people seek it out and when. Dr. Somers tells us about the critical junctures that often lead people to find a new advisor and financial points of interest for people entering into a new relationship. We get into the value of face to face advice, trust and commitment between clients and advisors and why it is necessary to build a team of advisors with different areas of expertise and practice. We end off the episode with Dr. Somers offering some great advice about newly acquired wealth, better practices for every day and the three things we should always be considering. For all this and so much more, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: What is a wealth psychologist? [0:01:42.4] How Dr. Somers got into the her current work and position. [0:02:35.8] Using Dr. Somers' book as an advisor and as a consumer. [0:04:25.5] The importance of a good financial advisor's perspective. [0:05:06.2] What are the factors that drive people to seek out financial advice. [0:06:38.5] Marriage, debt, finances and decisions. [0:08:49.6] Choosing the right advisor for your own needs and not just your own feelings. [0:11:30.2] Why so many advisors are fired in times of transition. [0:13:06.5] The value of face to face advice. [0:15:10.5] How to build a strong, trusting relationship with a client. [0:18:56.8] The level of selectiveness needed when choosing an advisor. [0:21:42.6] The benefits of building a diverse team of advisors. [0:23:53.1] Skills that are vital in advising on newly acquired wealth. [0:26:06.4] Smart lifestyle choices to improve your financial future. [0:28:55.7] The central trifecta of time, energy and money. [0:32:39.3] And much more!
S2 E44 · Thu, May 02, 2019
Interactions with Trolls: Who Should You Listen To?
Have you ever received hate mail or negative comments on your social media posts? We’re here to tell you you’re not alone. On today’s show we are talking at length about your interactions online with people commenting on YouTube videos as well as a Globe and Mail article which is quite incredible. It’s kind of a theme for this week. We dive into online trolls, those people whose sole purpose in life is to get you down. It’s super interesting to read and obviously very entertaining for some to see. People are forever out there giving advice and it’s up to you to decide who you’re listen to and what advice you’re taking. In wrapping up our talk, we also reveal our pick for the worst advice that we’ve heard in the previous week and why you need to stay far, far away. For all this and more, keep listening! Key Points From This Episode: Why an index fund should be better than an active fund. [0:04:00.0] How the index committee works. [0:06:30.0] Differences in the types of indexes. [0:07:29.0] Tax loss selling - buying something tracking a different index. [0:09:50.0] People promoting their own beliefs and opinions by commenting on articles and posts. [0:11:00.0] People following tribal leaders and why there’s too much information out there. [0:12:32.0] Decision theory and why you can’t base a decision on past outcomes. [0:13:00.0] Putting controversial content out there and “poking the bear” with dividend investing. [0:13:50.0] Being more wary of who you listen to and take advice from. [0:15:40.0] Who you should listen to - evidence based facts. [0:16:39.0] The concept of dividend growth investors. [0:19:30.0] Wanting the most reliable outcome possible. [0:21:25.0] Dividends as a guaranteed source of returns. [0:24:35.0] Using dividends as your spending rule. [0:26:25.0] The FIRE movement and why not all advice is good advice. [0:28:00.0] How irresponsible it is to use the 4% spending rule for your retirement goals. [0:29:35.0] Worst advice - when mutual funds make more sense than active funds. [0:34:45.0] And much more!
S2 E43 · Thu, April 25, 2019
Life at Dimensional: The Constant Pursuit with Dave Butler
On the show today we welcome Dave Butler, who is now the co-CEO of Dimensional Fund Advisors. We have a great conversation about a wide range of topics from the beginnings of the firm, to his earliest involvement, how he was nearly in the NBA and the importance of trust and family. Dave takes us on a personal and professional journey in science-based investing, who his biggest influences and mentors are and how he found the path of fiducial advice after a few different careers early on. We discuss leadership, small cap stocks, efficient portfolios and the building of trust with clients as we scan through the last 40 years or so with our guest. Dave shares history and memories on some of the landmark events in the field and Dimensional's story, spilling the beans on his experiences with industry giants such as Gene Fama and Merton Miller. For a great conversation with an open, honest and inspiring person, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: How Dave describes Dimensional. [0:02:32.2] Dave's basketball career before finance. [0:03:05.8] A 24 hour transition from sports to business. [0:06:46.7] Leadership, drive and team mentality. [0:09:38.6] The founding of Dimensional and the evolution of index funds. [0:11:32.5] The early days of small cap stocks. [0:17:40.1] Acting in the best interests of the clients and the rise of the fiduciary. [0:21:05.6] The first financial advisor at Dimensional! [0:23:59.0] Dave's own 'aha moment' and joining Dimensional. [0:25:42.6] Independent advice and always acting in the best interests of the client. [0:31:52.1] Building efficient investment portfolios for advisors. [0:35:51.1] Access to Dimensional funds and the indispensability of advisors. [0:37:33.5] Developing the essential element of trust. [0:38:51.1] The expansion of the advisor role over the last 25 years. [0:42:29.9] Dave's relationship with co-CEO Gerard O'Reilly. [0:45:22.4] The incredible experience of working with leading minds in finance. [0:47:50.8] Dave's definition of success. [0:51:38.0] And much more!
S2 E42 · Thu, April 18, 2019
IPOs, Indexing and Market-Linked GICs: Weighing Up Their Worth
Welcome to this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast! We’ve decided to tweak the format of the show slightly, so you can look forward to a more focused conversation around current and portfolio topics and much less talk about factors! In our talk today, we uncover the recent popularity of IPOs, giving you a balanced perspective so that you can decided for yourself whether the hype holds enough merit for you to get involved. We also get into the various arguments against indexing, pulling apart all the factors to keep in mind, and then advise you on choosing account types based on your individual financial needs. In wrapping up our talk, we also reveal our pick for the worst advice that we’ve heard in the previous week and why you need to stay far, far away. For all this and more, be sure to join us! Key Points From This Episode: How we are changing up the format of the episodes. [0:01:50.0] A closer look at the two Canadian funds with class action lawsuits against them. [0:03:46.0] Investigating the current IPO frenzy and whether there is merit in the hype. [0:07:40.0] How to get an IPO allocation and the possible terms and conditions. [0:11:59.0] A breakdown of the arguments against indexing. [0:13:46.0] Why indexing is risky and the issue of a lack of control. [0:14:24.0] Weighing up the degree to which the skills of fund managers play a role in indexing. [0:19:46.0] Factors to consider when deciding on the type of account that you want to allocate to. [0:23:26.0] The advisable cascading order in which to fill up your accounts. [0:26:37.0] The complexity with market-linked GICs and what the basic premise is. [0:35:50.0] And much more!
S2 E41 · Thu, April 11, 2019
The Future of Canadian Fintech: Leading the Charge with Robo-Advisors
On the show today we welcome Randy Cass, owner and founder of Nest Wealth, who were the first financial firm to employ the use of robo-advisors in Canada. Their unique business model and forward looking systems and practices are at the forefront of the industry in the country and hearing Randy's recollections from their processes as well as thoughts going forward will be of great interest to anyone interested in the future of their money. In our conversation we cover the basic history of Nest Wealth and what inspired their big decisions. Randy unpacks their fee structure and how some of the systems work and have changed over the last few years before going into the ins and outs of how robo-advisors field questions. Our guest also comments on the financial market's constant evolution and his personal and professional attitude to passive investment strategies. We chat about obstacles that currently stand in the way of the fintech industry and finish off the episode with Randy explaining his iterative approach to development as technology advances. For all this and more, be sure to tune in! Key Points From This Episode: How Randy decided to launch the first robo-advisor service in Canada. [0:02:17.3] The evolution of the systems used by Nest Wealth since its inception. [0:04:25.1] Nest Wealth's unique fee structure. [0:06:38.0] Handling questions from clients at the firm. [0:09:50.0] Nest Wealth's place in the evolving financial advice market. [0:13:23.8] How Nest Wealth use technology to scale financial advice. [0:19:04.8] Randy's attitude towards passive and active investment management. [0:22:57.8] Some of the notable obstacles that Randy has encountered in Canadian fintech. [0:25:32.1] Looking forward to the future of the industry and developing iteratively. [0:29:19.0] How Randy measures success in his life. [0:31:39.4] And much more!
S2 E40 · Thu, April 04, 2019
Five Factor Thinking: Using Factors to Spot Trends and Guide Decision Making
On today’s episode, Benjamin Felix and Cameron Passmore discuss a paper that Benjamin recently wrote called Factor Investing with ETF’s, which unpacks what factors are and why they are a useful tool in explaining performance. Before discussing Benjamin’s paper, they take some interesting detours, discussing annuities and the newly launched ALDA, why annuities are underutilized and what makes them different from portfolios. Along with this, they also cover some questions that can be asked to measure past performance of funds as well as luck versus skill. They share their insights into the Fama-French three factor model, how it evolved into a five-factor model and why they believe this to be a reliable way to read trends. For all this and a whole lot more, join us today! Factor Investing with ETFs Key Points From This Episode: Seller’s Capital: a hedge fund with an interesting investment philosophy. [0:02:46.0] The four questions to ask if you see why past results were good. [0:07:00.0] What it would take for results to be statistically significant. [0:07:54.0] Growing evidence of poor skill level of hedge fund manager. [0:09:53.0] Good returns are not related good decision making. [0:11:27.2] Annuities are underutilized and why it makes sense to use them more. [0:17:00.3] Annuities versus portfolios. [0:18:58.3] Some figures from the Dimension paper which was written. [0:23:26.3] What factors are. [0:26:41.3] What can be learned from the Fama-French model. [0:30:41.3] What the five factor model can help with. [0:33:48.0] Some critiques of using the factors. [0:38:50.0] Benjamin provides examples of using factors for evidence. [0:40:10.0] And much more!
S2 E39 · Thu, March 28, 2019
Steering Away from the Financial Extremes with Rob Carrick
Today on the show we are joined by Rob Carrick from The Globe and Mail! Rob has been writing about money and investing for almost 30 years and has a wealth of expertise and insight to share on everything from mutual funds to ETFs. In our discussion we cover common questions that Rob encounters, how his views have changed over the years, the parts of his job he has most enjoyed and his thoughts on where we are at right now. Rob comments on the feelings of worry and dissatisfaction that seems to characterize Canadian finances at the moment and talks about the FIRE Movement and lessons for the next generation. For all of this great content and much more, be sure to join on the podcast today! John Robertson's spreadsheet Key Points From This Episode: The most common questions that Rob receives. [0:02:47.8] Rob’s shifting perspective on seeking out an advisor. [0:04:41.5] Why Rob has traditionally enjoyed writing about housing investments [0:07:49.9] The current financial climate and Rob’s take on it. [0:10:14.4] Reasons why current financial worries are justified. [0:13:08.1] The rise in popularity of ETFs. [0:14:50.9] The bad rep that mutual funds have been getting recently. [0:18:37.4] Good practices for parents to teach their children about money. [0:21:42.2] The FIRE Movement and comparing generational attitudes. [0:24:56.6] Rob’s own many practices and who he goes to for advice. [0:30:39.5] How Rob defines success. [0:35:23.5] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S2 E38 · Thu, March 21, 2019
Feelings in the Decision Making Process: A Reminder About Rationality
Factor Investing with ETFs White Paper Today on the show we are taking about the influence of feelings in the decision making process. As investors and as humans in general, we tend towards making decisions based on feelings over rational and well-balanced data collection, that is just part of how we are wired. Here at the Rational Reminder Podcast we want to remind everyone of the importance of balancing these feelings with rationality. This does not mean that we should be making decisions without feelings but just to keep in mind our own biases and how these work to our detriment. In our discussion we cover what a good decision might look like, the two systems of thought as detailed by Daniel Kahneman and the importance of framing when approaching a weighty choice. We also run through a little on the safe savings rate and the ETF model portfolio. We end off with some useful strategies that can help you to make better decisions, especially when it comes to your money. For all this and a whole lot more, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: The recurrence of feelings in decision making. [0:03:56.5] Lack of data in the safe savings rate research. [0:05:18.2] The ETF model portfolio and where to find it online. [0:10:53.8] A few of the twenty craziest investing facts ever! [0:12:13.5] What is a good money decision? [0:15:06.1] Confirmation bias and influences on our decision making. [0:18:50.9] Kahneman and the two systems of thought. [0:20:10.9] The effects of past experiences on our current strategy. [0:24:46.3] Framing as part of the discussion and decision making process. [0:27:36.2] Four things you can do to implement better decision making. [0:30:12.6] And much more!
S2 E37 · Thu, March 14, 2019
Spending and Budgeting: Aligning Your Values and Goals To Your Finances
Welcome to Episode 37 of the Rational Reminder Podcast. On today’s show we are joined by Lindsay Plumb, Chief Coach-ess of MOOLA Financial Coaches and Advisors. We’re discussing spending and budgeting, because that’s kind of the opposite end of the spectrum of what we always talk about. We usually assume people already have wealth, but that’s not always the case. Even if you do, both spending and budgeting are super important. Just getting in line with your values and what you spend money on, that affects everybody, no matter how many assets you might have. So in this episode we dive into what it means to have an understanding and alignment of what your values are and what your goals are and how that should inform your financial decisions. We’re helping you help yourself and for that we’ve brought in the Chief Coach-ess with the most-ess. So, for all this and more, keep listening! Key Points From This Episode: Hear about Lindsay’s background and what she does within MOOLA. [0:02:20.0] Why budgeting is so hard. [0:03:35.0] Discovering your goals and articulating your values. [0:04:56.0] Using a tool that allows you to stick to a budget. [0:05:48.9] Understanding the difference between budgeting and tracking. [0:07:40.0] Why people blow out their budget on food. [0:08:32.0] Coaching people to change their behaviour. [0:09:47.0] How Lindsay advises her clients to coach their kids to modify their behavior. [0:12:41.0] Speaking in somebody else’s language, especially kids. [0:14:13.0] How to do bank accounts as couples. [0:16:48.0] Sudden wealth and how it can affect someones relationship with money. [0:21 :50] Retirement and planning for philanthropic or legacy goals. [0:24 :50] How Lindsay defines success in her own life. [0:29:30.0] And much more!
S2 E36 · Thu, March 07, 2019
ETF Model Portfolios: For Performance and Comparison Purposes
Welcome to Episode 36 of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Today we are going to roll out our new ETF model portfolios. This includes only two new ETF’s compared to a couch potato type portfolio that many of you might be familiar with. Nothing too revolutionary, but it certainly makes a meaningful difference. In this episode we also talk about asset location and review a couple of great podcasts that we’ve been listening to that provide interesting tidbits for investors, and some great information about the evolution of the industry, and about working with the clients. So, for an incredible conversation, be sure to join us! Key Points From This Episode: Slicing up your portfolio for tax efficiency purposes. [0:01:57.6] Controlling for pretax or after tax asset allocation. [0:05:0] Optimal asset locations - highest yielding assets in tax free accounts. [0:06:05.0] Having the same asset mix across all your portfolios & forgetting asset location. [0:09:51.1] Intricate versus complex adaptive. [0:12:22.0] The benefits of working with an adviser. [0:15:32.7] Holding yourself accountable if you’re going at it alone. [0:17:09.0] How it is much harder to find missed prices in the marketplace even for an expert. [0:19:40.0] A history of the financial advice business and how it’s evolved into what it is today. [0:21:29.0] Index investing and where people get their information from. [0:23:33.0] ETF model portfolios that truly offer exposure to the factors. [0:26:11.0] Why people should be thinking about small cap in value. [0:31:38.0] And much more!
S2 E35 · Thu, February 28, 2019
Findependence: Finding Financial Independence While Still Engaging In The Things You Love
Welcome to Episode 35 of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Today on the show we are joined by Jonathan Chevreau who is the founder of Independence Hub. He has authored and co-authored many books and has contributed to The Globe and Mail, The Financial Mail, and Money Sense. Jonathan is here today to talk about financial independence and having that “findependence” while still being extremely engaged in things that you enjoy doing. He also shares with us why your aim shouldn’t be retirement and what he means by a victory lap. We also dive into the role that media plays in investor behaviors and exactly what Jonathan defines as a success life. Jonathan’s insights on financial independence alone are incredibly valuable, and anything on top of that is simply a bonus! So, for an incredible conversation, be sure to join us!
S2 E34 · Fri, February 22, 2019
The Safe Savings Rate: Shifting the Focus Away from Wealth Accumulation
Welcome to Episode 34 of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Today we are discussing how our new ETF model portfolios will be employed to better accommodate our non-client listeners to whom Dimensional Fund Advisors are not as relevant. We talk about how BlackRock and Vanguard are dominating the market, why the US is leading in passive investment and why traditional financial planning needs to be re-evaluated. In addressing our main topic—safe savings rates—we explore the need for moving away from a focus exclusively on wealth accumulation to an approach more concerned with a safe savings strategy. We ask the all-important question, “How much will I need a month when I stop working?” and provide helpful guidelines on how focusing on the process rather than on the number that can help you to achieve your financial goals. Join us today to find out how you can adopt a safe savings approach! Key Points From This Episode: How we will accommodate non-client listeners using ETF model portfolios. [0:03:34.0] The issue of accessibility with Dimensional Fund Advisors. [0:04:51.0] How the world is exploding with asset allocation ETFs. [0:05:26.0] The dominance of BlackRock and Vanguard in the market. [0:09:33.0] How the US is leading in passive management. [0:10:06.0] What the Vanguard-effect does [0:10:27.0] Investing in factor funds versus portfolios of factor funds. [0:11:17.0] The benefit of having a one-decision portfolio that has a variety of different factors. [0:13:28.0] Factor returns versus smart beta returns. [0:15:33.0] Why low beta looks good on the factor side, but bad on the implementation side. [0:16:19.0] More about the 4% rule. [0:17:35.0] The four steps of traditional financial planning. [0:18:06.0] Pfau’s suggestion for a better alternative to traditional financial planning [0:20:27.0] What your savings rate should be [0:24:00.0]. The benefit of having a safe savings approach rather than focusing on wealth accumulation. [0:25:09.0] The challenge of knowing how much you need when you stop working. [0:25:49.0] Why you need to focus on the habit rather than on the target. [0:27:10.0] And much more!
S2 E33 · Thu, February 14, 2019
Low Cost Index Investing: What You Need To Be a Successful Index Investor.
Today on the show we are joined by Rick Ferri. Anyone who follows or is interested in index investing will probably have read something of Rick’s. He’s written seven books, working on the eighth, and he’s written a ton online as well. Rick opened Portfolio Solutions, the first low fee index fund based wealth management shop and built it up to over a billion dollar company. Rick created the model of low cost fiduciary advice, using index funds and putting the client first, so today we’re chatting to him all about it. Inside this episode Rick shares why he is so passionate about low cost index investing, the four levels of an index investor, and the requirements for being a good index investor in the long term. We also talk about his relationship with John Bogle, who recently passed away. It was a pretty meaningful conversation! For this and more, be sure to join us on today’s episode! Key Points From This Episode: Rick’s passion for low cost index investing. [0:02:24.0] The four levels of an index investor. [0:05:0] Dimensional funds: active management that uses factor based investing principles. [0:10:29.0] None market risk factors fitting into a portfolio. [0:11:54.0] Rick’s thoughts on the price and the value around behavioral coaching. [0:13:44.0] The future of robo-advisers. [0:18:14.0] Three things required for a person to be a good index investor in the long term. [0:18:54.0] Not indexing yet? - You need repetition, repetition, repetition. [0:20:28.5] Having more assets than they’ll ever need in term of their equity exposure. [0:22:40.0] John Bogle as a person and how he changed the financial services industry. [0:24:33.5] How Rick defines success. [0:29:05.0] And much more!
Bonus · Mon, February 11, 2019
Building a Future for the City: An Interview with Mayor of Ottawa, Jim Watson
We have a special, short bonus episode for you today! We are very glad to welcome the mayor of Ottawa, Jim Watson, to the podcast and although we are not strictly talking about investing and our usual topics, we do think it is a great and insightful conversation that you will enjoy, no matter where you are from. Mayor Watson tells us about his vision for the city, how he characterizes it, and the importance of the tech scene to its growth and success. We also talk about talent attraction and retention, social media in politics, budgeting, and his greater mission while in office. Be sure to tune and hear it all, here on the Rational Reminder Podcast! Key Points From This Episode: The mayor’s description of Ottawa. [0:02:24.7] Ottawa’s tech scene and the impact of companies like Shopify. [0:03:16.2] Attracting and retaining talent in the city. [0:05:48.8] Implementing a vision through daily work. [0:07:38.4] The role of social media in the job of the mayor. [0:08:53.7] Mayor Watson’s greater mission in politics. [0:11:06.6] Budgeting and balancing expectations around this. [0:12:55.1] And much more!
S2 E32 · Thu, February 07, 2019
Active or Passive Management: The Behavioural Explanations of Factors
Welcome back to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Our goal this year is to find our podcasting rhythm, creating a schedule that alternates between guests and these conversational episodes where it’s just us. On today’s episode we want to pull the focus of the podcast back to answering a handful of client questions that have come up in the past little while. So on today’s episode we are jumping right in to answer those listener questions, getting back on the factor train, and trying to get to the root of the desire for face-to-face investment advice. We also talk about a few articles as well, including some of the biggest headlines in investment news, and why it it critical to not only save for but also make plans to fulfill the vision of your retirement. So for another insightful episode answering all of your questions, stay tuned! Key Points From This Episode: • Discussing recent stand-out investment articles. [0:03:12.0] • Unpacking the debate between active and passive investment management. [0:07:11.0] • Why using factors is not another flavor of active management. [0:10:43.0] • Understanding market caps surrounding factors. [0:14:41.0] • Evaluating the worth of a stock that has not dividends or profit sharing. [0:16:46.0] • Planning for retirement, or not retiring at all: the retirement trends of today. [0:19:53.0] • Wealthsimple’s premium advice option: the value of dealing face-to-face [0:23:44.0] • The lost Bitcoin wallets crisis; understanding centralized versus decentralized [0:30:44.0] • And much more!
S2 E31 · Wed, January 30, 2019
Single Decision ETFs: Unpacking XGRO and XBAL from BlackRock
Today on the show we are joined by Steven Leong who is the Head of Canada iShares Product at BlackRock. Steven is here to talk about single decision ETFs, the new XGROs and XBALs from BlackRock and whole lot more. We start off the episode with a bit of an introduction on BlackRock and iShares before Steven informs us on the new relationship between BlackRock and RBC Global Asset Management. From there we get into the meat of the episode looking at the portfolios in question and Canada’s current positioning in the global trends. We talk about some of the great advantages that these funds offer investors and Steven shares his ideas on the current role of the financial advisor with regards to the rise of passive investing. We are lucky enough to have Steven offer his perspective on a slew of related topics before ending off with two great pieces of advice for our listeners. For this and more, be sure to join us! Key Points From This Episode: A quick overview of BlackRock’s scope and size [0:02:44.0] BlackRock’s relationship with RBC Global Asset Management. [0:04:35.8] A little about the XGRO, the XBAL portfolios. [0:06:32.3] Overweighting in Canada in common model portfolios.. [0:08:52.1] The advantage of automatic rebalancing for the investor. [0:11:06.3] The evolving role of the trusted financial advisor. [0:12:27.4] Sharp downturns in fund fees and the results of this trend. [0:15:01.8] Canada’s relatively slow uptake in index funds and iShares’ factor products. [0:19:46.9] The future of active versus passive investing. [0:25:21.2] Two pieces of investment advice from Steven! [0:27:14.7] And much more!
S2 E30 · Wed, January 23, 2019
The Authority Speaks: A Complete Guide to Investing and Retirement with Larry Swedroe
Today we are joined by a friend, hero, and a legend in the field fact based investing. Larry Swedroe is here to discuss his latest book, some of the timeless concepts he has been espousing for many years, and to give out a few golden nuggets of advice for your finances and retirement. Larry is so generous with his time and wisdom and we chat about a ton of chapters from his book, Y our Complete Guide to a Successful and Secure Retirement, and he picks out a few ideas to focus on here in this quick discussion. Larry shares the biggest mistake he has noticed in retirement planning, lifestyle considerations moving into the final stages of life, estate transfer, underperforming stocks, and more! We draw on Larry’s wealth of experience to get some perspective on more current trends in the industry such as the fixation on costs of advisors and we finish off hearing from Larry about how he defines success as he nears the end of his professional career. For all this and more, be sure to join us for an extra special episode! Key Points From This Episode: The four horsemen of the retirement apocalypse. [0:03:03.4] Larry’s pick for the biggest mistake made in retirement planning. [0:06:32.9] Non-financial considerations for those heading into retirement. [0:09:22.7] Day to day preparations for finding meaning in the retirement years. [0:13:04.5] Why it is important to expose yourself to independent risk factors. [0:15:34.6] Understanding the reasons for never actually avoiding factors. [0:26:53.9] How to avoid losing assets during the transfer of an estate. [0:29:16.4] Taking underperformance into account when considering your investments. [0:32:58.3] Looking at the financial industry’s shift in focus towards costs. [0:37:06.1] Larry’s own definition of success moving into the end of his career and retirement. [0:41:55.1] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S2 E29 · Thu, January 17, 2019
Clearing Up the Holiday Back-Up: Podcast Housekeeping and Round Up
Welcome back to The Rational Reminder Podcast! Today we are riding solo with no guests and just going over some recent developments, in-house news, and gearing up for some more great shows in the pipeline. We have had so many amazing guests recently, talking on a number of specific topics, so we thought we would take this opportunity to clean the mailbox, as it were, and set the table for the next few weeks. During the episode we cover the new partnership between RBC and iShares and what this means going forward and we also look at the state of ETFs and how much they have grown in the last few years. We talk about the impetus to go to cash that many investors and advisors seem to be considering and also discuss global diversification and how this is the truest representation of a belief in capitalism. We talk data, advertising, tax and the supposed market monopolies that the biggest companies in the world have right now. For all this and more, be sure to join us! Key Points From This Episode: We are hiring! [0:01:40.0] The new alliance between RBC and iShares. [0:02:23.3] The growth for ETF in comparison with mutual funds. [0:05:31.9] Does it make sense for long term investors to go to cash? [0:06:14.7] Globally diversified investments in international markets. [0:08:30.2] Are we living in a winner takes all market right now? [0:14:36.4] How data has overtaken oil as the most valuable resource. [0:20:54.2] CPPIB’s controversial advertising strategies. [0:23:50.6] A few quick tax updates. [0:26:30.6] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S2 E28 · Wed, January 09, 2019
Staying Ahead of the Curve: The History of Dimensional Fund Advisors
Today on the podcast we are very excited to welcome Brad Steiman who is the Canadian Head of Financial Advisor Services for Dimensional! This is an episode we literally cannot wait to share with our listeners as it is jam packed with really useful information, history, and inside scoops on Dimensional and what has helped them get to where they are today. As huge fans and associates of DFA this is the type of conversation we have been hoping to have for quite some time and hope you are as excited as we are. In our discussion, we cover Brad’s early career and how he became involved and employed by Dimensional. From there, Brad gives us some great insight into the important early events that shaped his and the companies trajectories as well as laying out the vital characters in DFA’s story. We also get into some of the ideas and the ethos that underpins the work done at the company, particularly around research, findings and implementation. For all of this and host of other interesting subjects be sure to join us for this episode! Key Points From This Episode: Brad’s initial attraction to working at Dimensional. [0:01:45.5] The college years and the following epiphanies. [0:02:37.9] Why Brad did not look at his early paychecks at Dimensional. [0:06:29.3] How David Booth preempted the evidence-based approach. [0:08:53.1] Dimensional’s continual approach to new research and data mining. [0:14:55.5] The criteria Dimensional apply when assessing findings. [0:17:26.9] Brad and Dimensional’s philosophy when it comes to stock momentum. [0:20:41.1] The implementation strategy at Dimensional. [0:25:51.1] ETFs versus mutual funds and Dimensional’s decision in this battle. [0:28:05.1] Dimensional’s unique approach to working with the advisor community. [0:30:51.5] Three of Brad’s favorite stories from his time at the company. [0:32:49.6] Brad’s science based approach to happiness! [0:37:34.1] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S2 E27 · Wed, January 02, 2019
Evidence Based Investing: Changing the Minds of Advisors and Investors with Robin Powell
In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast we welcome Robin Powell. Robin is a journalist and content creator who has dedicated the more recent part of his career to helping spread the word on research backed investing and turning the tide on the history of investment advice. For Robin, this all came about from an assignment he was working on and the feeling of shock he experienced when he discovered the wealth of information that is available to investors but how it is shielded by the majority of investment advisors. Robin explains these experiences and why we still see this in today’s marketplace. He chats to us about the films he has produced on the subject and the great characters and thought leaders with whom he has met. Robin is kind enough to open up about his thoughts on the future of investing, regulation and his hopes for the spread of this information. For all this and more, be sure to join us! Key Points From This Episode: Some of Robin’s background and previous work experience. [0:01:40.6] Why Robin started spreading the evidence based investment message . [0:02:38.9] The experience of speaking with industry leaders to make a documentary film. [0:04:07.7] The impact of this and the subsequent films Robin has produced. [0:05:44.0] Robin’s perspective on the Canadian financial industry. [0:06:57.8] The impact of the change of rules for financial advisors in the UK. [0:09:21.6] The effect of RDR and claims about reduced access to advice. [0:12:24.2] Difficulties in sharing information and changing people’s minds. [0:15:06.0] The role of the press in this dynamic and whether it can change [0:16:52.2] Robin’s favorite interviews and encounters over the years. [0:18:07.4] Looking to the future of the financial industry. [0:19:53.5] Considering the role of the human financial advisor with the rise of robo-advisors. [0:21:40.1] Robin’s own measure of success in his work [0:22:59.9] Regulation in the pursuit of changing the approach of advisors. [0:24:28.9] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E26 · Wed, December 26, 2018
Embracing Uncertainty: Planning Ahead and Taking On the Risk with Big Bang Theory Writer, David Goetsch
Welcome to this holiday edition of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Today on the show we have a special treat for you. A little while back, Cameron made an incredible connection with our guest, David Goetsch. David is a writer and the Co-Executive Producer of the Big Bang Theory. David himself subscribes to our investment philosophy and he is passionate enough about it that he speaks about it at conferences every now and then. He is truly a fascinating guy and the impact that this investment philosophy had on him is unreal. Inside this episode David shares with us how he used to a be a self-described worrier who worried about every little thing in his life. But once he had his eyes opened up to this philosophy, it changed him forever. He now embraces uncertainty, he embraces risk, he is not worried about his portfolio at all, and it has given him a great amount of peace in his life. For an incredible conversation with an absolutely changed man, stay tuned to hear it all! Key Points From This Episode: How David’s financial advisor changed his entire life. [0:02:46.3] What it means to become a transformed investor. [0:08:32.1] The greatest impact that David’s philosophy had on his life. [0:10:19.7] David’s relationship with his financial advisor; meetings, and guidance. [0:14:03.6] How to think about the fees you pay your financial advisor. [0:16:11.1] David’s miscalculation of risk in his life; moving to Hollywood. [0:22:36.0] The journey of David’s career as writer in Hollywood. [0:27:17.3] Schedule and writing process of the Big Bang Theory. [0:34:23.1] How David defines success and happiness in his own life. [0:37:43.0] The story of when David got check 1 of 104 from Big Bang Theory. [0:39:51.8] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E25 · Thu, December 20, 2018
The Year End Round Up: Recapping Recent Market Performance
This week on the podcast we are starting to wrap things up for the year, doing some house keeping and looking back at recent trends in the market. First of all we talk a bit about the podcast going forward and have a few comments on ratings and reviews. We also look at some of the upcoming content you can expect early next year! We chat about the client survey we recently held and what the data from this tells us. From there we move into more general information on the relationship between risk and profitability and try and explain why they are so closely linked. We also get into the market’s performance this year and the apparently bad year it has had. This exploration is located in the broader context of historical data and evidence based investing strategies and we try our best to show how a bad year like 2018 is not a reason to be reactive in you investments. For this and more, join us today! Key Points From This Episode: The first critical review of the podcast. [0:01:52.3] Some of the upcoming content for the new year. [0:02:52.0] The recent client survey which we completed. [0:04:56.3] Interesting data that we collected during this survey. [0:07 :02] The blog post from Michael James about our chat with Glenn Cooke recently. [0:08:57.8] How is being profitable riskier? [0:12:39.9] Behavioral explanations for factors and market timing. [0:15:10.7] The market this year and how it has dipped. [0:16:13.3] Comparing this year’s downturn with 2008. [0:17:38.6] This generation’s investors and risk seeking. [0:21:04.7] Understanding standard deviation in this context. [0:22:58.3] The potential impact of social media on markets compared to 2008. [0:26:02.4] The human bias towards action when in danger. [0:27:12.8] Don’t leave your seat to get a hot dog! [0:29:04.2] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E24 · Thu, December 13, 2018
Evidence: What To Follow And What Not To Follow
Welcome back to The Rational Reminder Podcast. Today, Benjamin is getting the factor fill off his chest. We are diving into a range of topics and we are talking about other factors or how far you can push the evidence. This is the first time in a while that we’ve really dug into factors. We cover other interesting topics like increasing CPP benefits, we talk about our regulatory bodies and the debate going on there, as well as the big news around Vanguard. It’s a fun debate and a good conversation. So, keep listening to hear more! Key Points From This Episode: How CPP is expanding in 2019. [0:01:48.0] Advocis putting the business interest of financial advisers before clients. [0:05:0] The rumor circulating about Vanguard. [0:10:22.0] A none story - How asset owners are falling out of love with index funds. [0:13 :00] Why the rich aren’t happy, why more money does not make people happier. [0:15:44.0] Factors of a way to beat the market and why factors work. [0:17:38.0] Factor regression on portfolios. [0:22:46.0] Long versus short stock picking. [0:27:43.0] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E23 · Thu, December 06, 2018
The Basic Rules of Purchasing Insurance: What, Why, When and How Much!
Welcome back to The Rational Reminder Podcast. Today we are joined by Glenn Cooke. Glenn is a fixture on the personal finance Canada sub-Reddit and spent many years as the President of Lifeinsurancecanada.com, which is an online platform for insurance information. Today, Glenn is the President of Insurance Squared where he works with market research departments at life insurance companies and shows life insurance agents how to generate leads online and sell non-face to face. Glenn has a very matter of fact, rational approach to insurance and that’s what we talk to him about in today’s episode. He shares with us about the mistakes he commonly sees in insurance, especially the fact that most people way under buy the amount of life insurance that they truly need. Glenn also describes permanent insurance, what it is, when it makes sense and what situations it is best suited for. We hear about when it’s important to use investments versus not and as long as consumers stick to those basic rules, it’s hard to go astray. So for an incredible interview, keep listening to hear more! Key Points From This Episode: Over the phone and online - why that approach worked so well for Glen. [0:02:24.0] Understanding field underwriting. [0:03:17.0] Why some people are hesitant buying insurance online and prefer in person. [0:06:27.0] Most common questions people are asking when buying insurance. [0:07:27.0] Mistakes people are making when buying life insurance. [0:07:56.0] Justifying how much you need. [0:09:31.0] How disability insurance ties in very closely to life insurance. [0:10:34.0] Settling for group disability insurance through your employer. [0:13:23.0] What is permanent life insurance and where would it make sense. [0:15:25.0] Two general categories of permanent insurance. [0:19:30.0] Glen’s views on critical illness insurance. [0:2 1:0] Three ways you can use life insurance. [0:25:46.0] Ways you can get money out of your insurance policy. [0:28:08.0] Glen’s observation about financial literary in Canada. [0:32:05.0] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
Bonus · Thu, December 06, 2018
The Yield Curve Is Not Out To Get You
In this bonus episode we briefly talk about the yield curve, and why it’s probably not going to hurt you. With special guest Robert Little, Wealth Management Analyst at PWL Capital. For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E22 · Thu, November 29, 2018
Transformational Decision Making: Building A Company, Defining Success, and Finding Happiness
Welcome back to The Rational Reminder Podcast. Today we are joined by Daniel Weinand. Daniel is the cofounder of Shopify, which is a company based in Ottawa that has had enormous success, not just in Ottawa or Canada, but all over the world in the last few years as a public company. Shopify is a great commerce platform that supports over 600,000 different stores worldwide. It is an incredible success story, and the best way that we can describe the conversation was that it was very intense. Everything from the way Daniel thinks about things to what he’s been able to achieve comes down to his intensity, and you can actually see the wheels turning in his head while he speaks. So for an incredible interview, keep listening to hear more! Key Points From This Episode: How Daniel chose Canada and got involved in Shopify. [0:02:13.0] Decisions that were transformational for the company. [0:04:21.0] Daniel’s transition into retirement from Shopify. [0:06:07.0] The role of happiness and self-fulfillment. [0:10:18.0] The beauty of poker — a game of incomplete information. [0:11:19.0] Creating a company culture. [0:19:16.0] The impact financial security has on productivity and engagement for employees. [0:25:04.0] How Daniel defines success. [0:26:25.0] Why Daniel chose to work with PWL. [0:29:41.0] The impact of money in Daniel’s life. [0:33 :50] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E21 · Thu, November 22, 2018
Buying or Leasing: Weighing the Costs of Real Estate Choices
Welcome back to The Rational Reminder Podcast. Today’s episode is focused on the question of investing in real estate. It is still a common conundrum for investors and even those who may not consider themselves active investors, whether to buy or to rent a property. As you may imagine it is not a very simple issue and the answer does require some serious thought and calculation. But our hosts do their best to lay out some of the most important concerns and factors in trying to find the answer. Before getting into the meat of the episode however, we also look at some general recent news from the money world including developments from Investor’s Group, the market’s downturn and the low year we have all had as well as thinking about Canadian small cap stocks. For all this and more, be sure to tune in! Read Robb Engen’s take on this episode on the Boomer & Echo blog . Key Points From This Episode: The changes Investor’s Group have made to their pricing. [0:01:27.4] The recent downturns in the market. [0:03:04.8] Evolving perspectives and long term measurements on your returns. [0:05:00.2] Looking at the performance of Canadian small cap stocks. [0:09:55.2] Beginning to weigh the costs of owning versus renting real estate. [0:11:13.3] Dropping opportunity costs and changes in income over time. [0:16:15.8] Adjusting your view to your total unrecoverable costs. [0:16:46.4] The biggest advantage of home ownership. [0:18:26.8] Some points from Larry Swedroe that we can all adhere to. [0:20:38.2] Keeping track of your decisions and why you made them. [0:25:41.8] And much more!
S1 E20 · Thu, November 15, 2018
The Cost of Financial Advice: Should You Pay For It and If You Do, How Much Should You Pay For It?
Welcome to The Rational Reminder Podcast. On today’s episode we are going to roll out our new format for the show. We ended off our previous show format with a series of interviews, and today we are ready to jump into something new! Of course, we definitely don’t plan on doing that perfectly today because we do have a couple of things that we want to talk about before we make it official. The meat of the episode will be focused on discussing the cost of financial advice. Should you pay for it, how should you pay for it, and how much should you pay for it? On top of that, we are going to be discussing the performance of the markets, controlling the things you do have control over, being a DIY investor, and how to strategically choose where you get your investment advice from. It’s genuine and it’s out there, so keep listening to hear more! Key Points From This Episode: Performance of the markets - should you invest. [0:03:25.0] Having control over your asset allocation. [0:05:0] The use of robo advisors. [0:07:21.0] What should we be paying for advisors. [0:10:40.0] Service delivery - is the outcome positive for the client and the advisor. [0:13:49.0] How we use a tier fee structure at PWL. [0:16:17.0] Benjamin shares about the event he went to last week. [0:17:03.0] Who should you be getting your advice from - does licensed matter. [0:21:14.0] Being a DIY investor. [0:23:34.0] The key takeaway. [0:28:21.0] And much more! For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E19 · Wed, November 07, 2018
Decision Making: Mental Models, Knowing Your Variables, and Achieving Positive Outcomes With Shane Parrish
Welcome back to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Our guest today is Shane Parrish. Shane runs the Farnam Street Blog , which has to be one of the most valuable collections of information that exists on the Internet. Farnam Street’s stated intention is mastering the best of what other people have already figured out and the site gets over a million visitors. The content is unbelievable in terms of improving yourself, thinking better, and learning better. Shane interviewed Ray Dalio not long ago and over time he’s spoken with some pretty serious people in his podcast, The Knowledge Project Podcast . This episode is a very peaceful, thoughtful, interesting conversation that we know listeners will love. Shane’s just got so much information in his head that we all can get a ton of value from. So, be sure to keep listening to hear more! Key Points From This Episode: What mental models are and why they’re important. [0:02:07.0] Top list of mental models for making investing decisions. [0:03:39.0] The most harmful biases to investors. [0:04:44.0] Importance of process when making investment decisions. [0:07:51.0] Why Shane uses decision journals. [0:09:11.0] Being willing to look stupid. [0:12:36.0] How intuition and skills go together in investing. [0:14:16.0] Public markets versus private markets. [0:16:19.0] Avoiding negative outcomes and having positive outcomes. [0:20:41.0] Understanding uncertainty and risk. [0:24:35.0] Defining happiness for himself. [0:33:15.0] Lessons Shane learned about parenting. [0:36:28.0] Book that Shane loves to read.<
S1 E18 · Thu, November 01, 2018
A Passion for Ottawa: Running, Luck, and the Ovarian Lottery with Mark Sutcliffe
Welcome back to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. Our guest today is a great friend and associate, Mark Sutcliffe! Mark is a well know media personality, community worker, philanthropist, business person, and investor. He also happens to be a great speaker and listener, which probably has something to do with him hosting his own radio show. Today we are extremely excited to be able able to interview him and pick his brain on all things rational, financial, and beyond. We chat about what makes Mark tick, his passions, his motivations, and what keeps him going. From there we dive into the financial industry and hear first-hand about Mark’s own learning curve and how he currently views investing. We then turn to the subject of Ottawa and look specifically at Mark’s work in and commitment to the city. A strong theme that arises in this episode is Mark’s view of his own good fortune and we finish off our interview with a meditation on the success he has experienced and some of his ambitions for the future. For all this and much more, be sure to listen in! Key Points From This Episode: Mark’s passion and what keeps him motivated. [0:03:21.9] A typical day in the life of Mark and how he gets through all this work. [0:04:34.3] Mark’s forays into and experiences with investing. [0:06:44.2] The gripes that Mark has with certain areas of the financial industry. [0:09:45.7] Mark’s TED Talk and the role of luck in his life. [0:13:01.3] Long term financial planning and how this links to the rest of Mark’s life. [0:17:17.4] A big picture perspective and how this helps investors through volatility. [0:21:28.6] The media’s role in public perception and culture around the markets. [0:23:07.2] Mark’s current thoughts on the Ottawa business scene. [0:24:48.5] The long standing association between Mark and PWL. [0:27:06.7] The trend towards index investing in Canada and its growing popularity. [0:29:00.9] Mark’s reflections on his successes and ambitions for the future. [0:31:19.2] And much more! Learn more and subscribe to the show at pwlcapital.com
S1 E17 · Fri, October 26, 2018
Evidence Based Investing: Sticking to Science When It Comes To Your Money
Welcome to the Rational Reminder Podcast everybody! Today on the show we welcome a good friend and someone who has had a massive influence on our lives and work. Bestselling investment author, Dan Solin, joins us on the podcast today. Dan has been a staunch advocate for evidence based investing for a long time now and although this approach is still far from dominant, it has grown immensely in the years he has been active. His focus on smart, client-centered investing has set the standard for a certain portion of advisors in the US and Canada, notably the ones hosting this show! In our conversation, we chat about Dan’s history and the foundations of his professional philosophy. We get into some of his work as a lawyer and how this influenced his overall career trajectory. Interestingly, we spend some time on the topics of happiness and kindness and their integral importance to financial success for any investor. For an inspiring and thoughtful conversation with a true industry leader, be sure to tune in! Key Points From This Episode: An overview of Dan’s career and his investing philosophy. [0:03:05.9] Dan’s training as a lawyer and how this influenced his evidence based approach. [0:05:45.0] The case that prompted Dan to a proactive strategy for fairness. [0:06:45.1] Dan’s on air disagreement with CNBC’s Jim Cramer. [0:08:52.6] Looking at the culture of active fund management in Canada. [0:10:59.1] The time Dan spent on the concept of happiness in his latest book. [0:14:45.5] Building trust with clients through genuine interest. [0:15:56.8] Looking at the difference experiences of introverts and extroverts. [0:18:32.0] The critical importance of empathy in all aspects of life. [0:19:40.7] The full extent of what a wealth advisor should do. [0:21:06.9] Perspective and care as two primary directives for advisors. [0:23:45.4] The retirement-focussed project Dan is currently working on [0:26:05.8] Dan’s own journey and struggles around happiness. [0:28:43.6] And much more! Learn more and subscribe to the show at pwlcapital.com
S1 E16 · Wed, October 17, 2018
Market Volatility
In Episode 16 of the Rational Reminder Podcast we talked about the following: How bad was last week’s market volatility? Should you make changes to your portfolio in this market? Are people better at predicting when markets are volatile? How the market prices securities The economy vs. the stock market When do bear markets typically occur? Will passive investing exacerbate the next correction? Do index funds affect price discovery? The power of capitalism Index reconstitution Risk over the long-term Quant investing does not always pass robustness tests 50% of business is marketing Devil’s in the HML details Dimensional has thought of everything The charts that we talked about: For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E15 · Mon, October 15, 2018
Dimensional Advanced Conference 2018
In Episode 15 of the Rational Reminder Podcast we recapped our time at the Dimensional Fund Advisors advanced conference. We recapped the following: Eugene Fama The history of the University of Chicago and Dimensional Connecting economics with academia Behavioral finance is a branch of efficient markets (according to Fama) Crunching data for the first time Starting the first index fund – before Vanguard Volatility lessons Black swans Do you need a tstat of 3 in today’s world? We referenced this paper https://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v74.n3.6 For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E14 · Thu, October 11, 2018
An inside look at Canadian consumer debt
In Episode 14 of the Rational Reminder podcast we were joined by Martin Parizeau, a retired banking executive with extensive knowledge of Canadian consumer debt, and a PWL client. We discussed the following: The start of the ETF boom When proponents of active management realize they should index Cutting wasteful expenses without sacrificing happiness Pulling off a successful downsizing Housing is not an investment The real cost of owning a home Defining the ideal lifestyle Digging into Canadian consumer debt levels The real debt to income ratio for debtors in Canada Is mortgage debt always “good” debt? The rising cost of debt and its effect on the economy Credit card rates are justified Choosing the right credit card Never pay an annual fee on a credit card The boom-bust lending cycle Bankers saw the financial crisis coming, but had to keep going Focusing on the things that you can control Ottawa Citizen article from Sunday, March 3, 2002 mentioned in this podcast. For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E13 · Tue, October 02, 2018
Unaffordable housing
In Episode 13 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: Getting into the DFA advanced conference Cancelling whole life insurance When permanent insurance makes sense Unaffordable housing in Canada Housing bubbles? Bridging the gap with a HELOC Undervalued financial advice Money does not buy happiness Defining a lifestyle Walking to work Active funds are still underperforming Missing out on the best stocks The Stories we talked about: HOUSING TRENDS AND AFFORDABILITY UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index It’s officially normal to have a big, fat balance on your line of credit Stock Pickers Struggle to Beat Index Funds Once Again For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E12 · Fri, September 28, 2018
Living through the financial crisis
In Episode 12 of the Rational Reminder podcast we were joined by Doug McKenzie, an executive at a large US financial institution, and a PWL client. We discussed the following: Attacking a retirement goal Managing expenses before retirement Toronto real estate in a retirement plan Living (and working through) the financial crisis The Investor’s Group Dividend Fund Income investing Robo advisors Using prepaid credit cards for budgeting CCP vs. CPM vs. DFA Running regressions Data sources Come From Away The value of knowledge and advice For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E11 · Mon, September 24, 2018
Simple vs. complex with Robb Engen
In Episode 11 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: Are DIY investors responsible for their actions? Starting a blog Switching from stock picking to index funds Managing behaviour The 4-minute portfolio When does it make sense to optimize? Index fund rebuttals Fee-only vs. fee-based advice Choosing a conflict of interest Robb’s biggest beef with Canadian financial services Trusting the bank VGRO vs. robo advisors One-fund retirement portfolios We were joined by Robb Engen, author of the Boomer and Echo blog . For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E10 · Mon, September 17, 2018
Keep the deferred sales charge, more for us
In Episode 10 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: Grass fed beef The benefits of independence The Ontario government wants to keep the deferred sales charge (DSC) DSC back in the day The old financial advice model DIY investors are responsible for their decisions 1/3 of people say money is their biggest stressor Locus of control A better way to invest responsibly The stories that we talked about: Investment industry stunned as Ontario opposes proposed ban on mutual fund early-withdrawal fees Ontario’s Ford government is shamefully backing the investment industry over investors Advocis Welcomes Statement from Minister Fedeli Controversial commissions: DIY investors fight back against trailer fees How We Really Feel About Money, in a Few Simple Graphs Busting the RI performance myth Responsible/ESG investing For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E9 · Mon, September 10, 2018
Dimensional’s Big Flaw
In Episode 9 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: Being a poor grad student Budgeting Stuff does not make you happy Mental overhead is a real cost The Globe’s Financial Facelift disaster Rob Arnott’s slam of Dimensional Are people afraid of stocks? The 10-year anniversary of Lehman’s fall Stories from the financial crisis Volatility in dollars vs. percentage points Automated rebalancing My uncle told me to buy weed stocks What does a rational investor worry about? The stories we talked about: Great savers, not so great at investing Psychic Trauma How the Financial Crisis Still Affects Investors The chart we talked about: For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E8 · Wed, September 05, 2018
Sell Everything!
In Episode 8 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: Fidelity’s 0% MER index funds are already at $1 billion When costs are 0%, how do you pick a fund? Indexing is not a passive investment strategy Index construction and product implementation > low fees A three factor regression on the Manulife Multifactor ETFs Indexing is still a tiny part of the market Not all factors belong in a portfolio Dividend investing shouldn’t be so controversial Dividends are not a spending rule Financial experts don’t sound like experts to non-experts Sell everything! The stories we talked about: Fidelity Zero-Fee Funds Lure About $1 Billion in First Month Infographic: Three myths related to indexing What Does it Mean to be a Financial Expert? The charts we talked about: Image Source: Vanguard For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E7 · Tue, August 28, 2018
Buying WEED
In Episode 7 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: Ottawa home prices The longest bull market in history What goes up does not have to come down All time highs are normal and should be expected Is the market overvalued? Even the CAPE only explains 40% of future return differences Should you dollar cost average or invest in a lump sum? Your better off in the market than trying to time the market Was WEED an obvious buy at $2.00? There are still plenty of public companies to invest in Small cap returns need to be taken in context Bad behaviour is not always easy to spot The stories we talked about: The longest bull run in history comes with a jumbo-sized asterisk All time highs are normal What if investing right before a market crash isn’t that bad? Is Now the Best Time to Invest? With Constellation Deal, Canopy Has the Chance to Be Google of Pot The Stock Market Is Shrinking. That’s a Problem for Everyone. The charts we talked about: Image source: Dimensional Fund Advisors Image source: Ben Felix, PWL Capital For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E6 · Fri, August 17, 2018
Asset Location
In Episode 6 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes! Wealthsimple’s new no-commission trading platform Do individual stocks ever play a role in a financial plan? Can behavioural coaching be scaled? Being aware of conflicts of interest Wealth and happiness are not always connected If you buy an R8, you’ll want a McLaren next Retiring does not mean doing nothing How do you retire without a financial plan? The 4% rule is false! If you want to retire early Asset location is hard to do, and might not add value The stories we talked about: Wealthsimple CEO Katchen says he would ‘certainly’ consider IPO The best of Carrick on Money: Who wants to retire really early, anyway? Asset Location Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex “Optimal” Asset Location, Applied For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E5 · Tue, August 14, 2018
Rethinking Mortgage Debt
In Episode 5 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: Checking your credit Optimizing your credit score Investing vs. paying off your mortgage Asset allocation Reframing mortgage debt Are we in a tech bubble? The rise in the US market is backed by fundamentals How the largest Canadian pension funds invest Skewness in VC returns It’s still really hard to beat index funds The stories we talked about: Mortgage debt and asset allocation Fed Up Andrew Coyne: Canada Pension Plan's active management strategy is a crock Tiny Wisconsin College Using Index Funds Trounces Endowment Rivals The charts we talked about: Source: Raymond Kerzhéro, PWL Capital Source: Raymond Kerzhéro, PWL Capital Source: Raymond Kerzhéro, PWL Capital Source: Correlation Ventures For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E4 · Wed, August 08, 2018
The Race to 0%
After a successful launch, the podcast will live on! Thanks for the support and feedback. In Episode 4 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: The longest bull market in history? Are we repeating the tech bubble? Why it still makes sense to hold bonds Rebalancing isn’t always easy The Lost Decade, sort of Is tax-loss selling worth it? Horizons’ marketing mistake One decision funds Index fund fees are finally at 0% Sec lending is the future of index fund revenue Charley Ellis on the history of active management There are less willing losers today than there were in the past The paradox of skill Active managers underperform consistently Daniel Kahneman does not believe active management works If you think you have intuition about stocks, you’re wrong Corporate DB pension plans are not risk-free The stories we talked about: This bull market could become the longest in history this month Tax-Loss Harvesting: Should Investors Believe the Hype? Horizons ETFs Launching 0% Management Fee ETF Portfolio Solutions Free Fidelity Funds Stoke Price War in Bid to Catch Index Giants ETFs still gathering assets, but inflows slow as investors favor lower-cost funds CHARLEY ELLIS – INDEXING AND ITS ALTERNATIVES (EP.62) Then, and now Kahneman's Insights: Beyond Thinking Fast and Slow 'It's going to be hard': Sears pension payments cut by 30% this week The charts we talked about: <img src= "https://assets.libsyn.com/secure/show/127327/Lost_Decade.png" alt= "The Lost Decade" w
S1 E3 · Fri, August 03, 2018
Amazon Eating the Stock Market
In Episode 3 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: Should you lease or buy your vehicle? How are the new mortgage stress tests affecting Canadian real estate? Home ownership is not required to build wealth, with a little discipline Amazon’s size is not unprecedented Successfully investing in growth stocks is really hard Consolidation in the Canadian asset management industry Independence benefits wealth management clients Are backend loads on mutual funds still a thing? Fund companies pushing anti-evidence Financial advice is about more than just the portfolio We are still waiting for lower stock valuations, high inflation, and high interest rates If you’re not worried, you don’t have a high expected return Are we living in exceptionally uncertain times? Small cap and value returns comes from rebalancing The stories we talked about: Report on the Housing and Mortgage Market in Canada Federal policies suppressing housing activity, creating a negative shift in sentiment for homebuyers, according to latest consumer report Amazon’s eating the world – and the stock market Is Amazon Changing the World, and the Stock Market? The Most Valuable Companies of All-Time TD Bank becomes Canada's biggest money manager with $792-million deal to buy Greystone Managed Investments Banning Embedded Commissions Would Not Have Fixed Financial Advice in Canada Transforming Practices in the Wealth Bu
S1 E1 · Thu, August 02, 2018
The Cheapest Advice Probably isn't the Best
In our first ever episode of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: The purpose of the podcast How we invest DFA Factor investing Our worst investment ever Tripling our money in JDS Hedge funds still can’t beat the market CSA won’t deploy a statutory best interest standard The cheapest financial advice may not be the best Is a financial advisor worth it? Cost vs. complexity The stories we talked about: Dave Butler Discusses Finance and Basketball Hedge Funds Should Be Thriving Right Now. They Aren’t. 2017 NACUBO-COMMONFUND STUDY OF ENDOWMENTS It just became clear we’ll never see an investment industry where clients must come first Why hiring an adviser who’s offering low fees could be a terrible move for your finances Podcast 18: Boots on the Ground with Rob Carrick Millennial looking to start investing asks: Should I go with Wealthsimple? For more information or to contact Cameron and Ben, visit pwlcapital.com
S1 E2 · Thu, August 02, 2018
Indexing is Here to Stay
In Episode 2 of the Rational Reminder podcast we discussed the following: The underperformance of value stocks Are we in a Winner Take All market? Facebook’s crash Global value performance Canadian value premium at ~+5.5% Rebalancing into the pain Factor diversification Having a philosophy and sticking with it Index fund flows are slowing down in the US Canadian active funds are still dominating passive ETFs Markets are still efficient Deciding to be an index investor takes work Fewer highly skilled active managers make markets more efficient Canadians might need to buy real estate to retire Doctors were sold out by MD Management Should you listen to the yield curve? Michael Batnick’s chart crimes DFA’s weights vs. the S&P 500 weights The stories we talked about: Don’t cry over underperforming US value stocks O’Shaughnessy Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2018 Index Funds Are Going to Be Just Fine The growth of index investing has not made markets less efficient People Aren’t Dumb. The World Is Hard. Many doctors feel “betrayed” by sale of MD Financial Management Earth to investment advisers: You’re blowing it with millennials Arguing With the Yield Curve Robot vs. human: When you should invest with robo advisors The charts we talked about: <p style="margin: 0cm; margin-bot
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