Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast
Welcome to ReSolve Riffs Investment Podcast, hosted by the team at ReSolve Global*, where evidence inspires confidence. These podcasts will dig deep to uncover investment truths and life hacks you won’t find in the mainstream media, covering topics that appeal to left-brained robots, right-brained poets and everyone in between. In this show we interview deep thinkers in the world of quantitative finance such as Larry Swedroe, Meb Faber and many more, all with the goal of helping you reach excellence. Welcome to the journey. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Fu...
Mon, April 07, 2025
Carry Analysis - Small vs Large Universe
In this discussion, Adam Butler, CIO of ReSolve Asset Management Global, a seasoned expert in multi‑asset carry strategies, walks through his latest research comparing two implementations of a carry strategy. He explains the fundamentals of carry in diverse asset classes and explores a wide range of topics including carry fundamentals, market liquidity, simulation analysis, historical cycles, and portfolio strategy, all while putting recent market performance into a broader cyclical context. Topics Discussed • Carry strategy fundamentals and the yield dynamics across various asset classes • Comparison between a small, highly liquid 26‑market universe and an extended universe of up to 80 markets • Detailed statistical analysis using historical simulations and probability cones • Examination of recent performance divergences between liquid and broader market universes • The influential role of soft commodities and other non‑liquid market segments on carry returns • Historical patterns of divergence and subsequent reversion in carry strategy performance • Implications for long‑term investment strategies and tactical portfolio management
Fri, April 04, 2025
Moritz & Moritz from Takahe on the New School of Old School Trend-Following
In this episode of ReSolve Riffs, host Adam Butler is joined by two special guests from Takahē Capital – founder, CEO, and chief bottle washer Moritz Seibert, and head of quantitative research, Moritz Heiden. They offer an in‐depth look into systematic trading within managed futures, exploring topics such as commodity markets, trend following, risk management, portfolio construction, and the challenges posed by investor and ESG dynamics. Topics Discussed • The emergence of Takahē Capital from restrictive ESG mandates and its unconventional origins • The core trend following strategy, outlier trading, and the “high octane” approach • Rigorous risk management techniques centered on fixed risk unit sizing and drawdown control • Diversification across conventional and peripheral commodity markets • Position sizing dynamics through multiple independent trading systems • Portfolio construction methods and the management of correlated markets • The balance between simplicity and complexity in systematic trading models • The impact of investor demands and ESG standards on volatility, capital efficiency, and returns
Fri, March 21, 2025
Live Q&A - Managed Futures Trend & Carry Flash Update
This in‐depth live Q&A features guests Corey Hoffstein, Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research, and Adam Butler, CIO of ReSolve Global, alongside host Rodrigo Gordillo, President and Portfolio Manager of ReSolve Global. In this episode, the panel unpacks the current macro market shifts and their impact on managed futures strategies, discussing topics such as policy shocks, systematic trend and carry models, volatility, and historical market precedents. Topics Discussed • Global Macro Market Dynamics and Policy Shifts affecting asset classes across Europe, the U.S., and beyond • The Cumulative Impact on Managed Futures and Systematic Strategies that span multiple asset classes • Multi-Asset Carry Strategy Fundamentals, including yield extraction and financing differentials • Trend Following Strategies under Volatile and Reversal Conditions in rapidly shifting markets • Risk Adjustments and Portfolio Rebalancing Mechanisms as systematic models react to sudden market changes • Historical Precedents: Lessons from events like the 1994 bond massacre and subsequent policy shocks • The Interplay between Policy Announcements and Systematic Strategy Performance amid geopolitical surprises • Advisory Perspectives and Long-Term Risk Management for communicating drawdowns and premiums to clients
Fri, March 07, 2025
David Woo: Trump’s Trade War Playbook – How to Profit From It
In this episode of ReSolve Riffs, renowned economist and strategist David Woo—CEO of David Woo Unbound and a veteran of global finance—dives deep into a multifaceted discussion on current global economic and political trends with Mike Philbrick and Adam Butler. Drawing on decades of experience at institutions like Bank of America and the IMF, Woo unpacks themes ranging from shifting U.S. trade policies and the fallout from the German election to disruptive advances in technology and evolving fiscal strategies. Topics Discussed • U.S. Trade Policy and Shifting Global Alliances: Analysis of the transition from Biden’s approach to Trump’s competitive strategy • German Election and European Economic Adjustments: Examining the impact on manufacturing competitiveness and embedded fiscal constraints • Tariffs and Trade Warfare: Insight into the deployment of steel, aluminum, auto, and reciprocal tariffs across regions • Market Rotation and Investor Flows: The dynamic shift from U.S. retail-driven buying to increased global and emerging market exposure • Fiscal Discipline and Inflation Management: Strategies to curb deficits, rein in spending, and mitigate inflationary pressures • Emerging Markets and Currency Strategies: Evaluating opportunities in emerging market local currency debt amid global real yield shifts • Technology Disruption in Cloud and Semiconductor Industries: The implications of innovations like DeepSeek and evolving AI dynamics • Japanese Economic Outlook and Structural Reforms: Assessing Japan’s monetary policy, automation, and progress in semiconductor manufacturing
Fri, February 07, 2025
Daniel Waldenström-Lifting the Bottom: A Fresh Look at Wealth and Economic Progress with
In this episode, the ReSolve team sits down with Daniel Waldenström, a professor of economics with a focus on growth and distribution. Waldenström shares his insights on a range of topics, from the impact of economic crises on societal structures, to the role of policy makers in fostering growth, and the shifting landscape of wealth inequality. Topics Discussed • Waldenström's journey into economics, spurred by an interest in societal issues and historical events, particularly the economic crisis Sweden faced in the early 90s • The importance of understanding both the size of the economic pie and its division, and how this realization shaped Waldenström's book, 'So Richer and More Equal' • The role of policy makers in fostering growth and the common pitfalls they face, particularly in Europe • The impact of the Swedish economic crisis in the late 80s and early 90s, centered around real estate and loose lending standards by Swedish banks • The evolution of wealth distribution over time, with a focus on the shift from a wealth concentration in the hands of a few to a broader dispersion • The unique case of wealth inequality in the U.S., and how it differs from trends in other Western economies • The role of educational systems, labor laws, and trade unions in raising people's productivity and income levels • The impact of asset price appreciation on wealth inequality, and how this has played out differently in the U.S. and Europe • The role of income and income distribution in wealth inequality, and the implications of capitalization of income • Waldenström's policy prescriptions based on his research, offering a positive view of capitalism and human ingenuity This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the dynamics of economic growth, wealth distribution, and the role of policy in shaping these outcomes. Waldenström's insights provide a nuanced perspective on these complex issues, offering valuable strategies for navigating the ever-changing economic landscape.
Fri, January 17, 2025
Warren Mosler: Unraveling the Mysteries of Modern Monetary Theory
In this riveting episode, the ReSolve team converses with Warren Mosler, a prominent economist and theorist in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). The conversation is enriched by the presence of Richard Latterman, a portfolio manager at Resolve, who is keen on gaining insights on policy and economics. The discussion dives deep into the evolution of economics, the departure of MMT from classical economics, the impact of interest rates on inflation, and the intricacies of the banking system. Topics Discussed • Warren Mosler provides an introduction to Modern Monetary Theory and how it deviates from classical economics • The discussion delves into the order of operations in economics, with a focus on the concept of 'spend before taxing and borrowing' • Exploration of the role of the U.S. government in the creation of dollars and the implications of this process • Discussion on the fear of removing the scarcity constraint or the scarcity mindset in economics • Analysis of the impact of interest rates on inflation, challenging conventional economic wisdom • Understanding the concept of continuous change in the price level under floating exchange rates • The conversation delves into the complexities of the banking system and the role of regulations and compliance • Warren Mosler shares his views on the potential impact of certain policy suggestions on the current economic system. • The discussion concludes with Warren Mosler sharing his non-consensus views on investment and asset allocation. This episode is a treasure trove of insights for anyone interested in understanding the nuances of Modern Monetary Theory, the impact of interest rates on inflation, and the intricacies of the banking system. Warren Mosler's insightful views challenge conventional economic wisdom and provide a fresh perspective on the evolution of economics and economic policy.
Thu, January 16, 2025
Return Stack Anything: Portable Alpha with RSSB
Finding alpha is notoriously difficult. Instead of trying to pick stocks better, what if you simply added the return of high-conviction, alternative strategies on top of your asset allocation? That’s the opportunity portable alpha unlocks for allocators. Join us for an exclusive webinar where we reveal how capital-efficient ETFs can be used to “port” the returns of any alternative investment on top of your asset allocation. In this educational session, we will: Explain what portable alpha is, where it came from, and what problems it solves for allocators Demonstrate how the Return Stacked® Global Stocks & Bonds ETF (RSSB) enables anyone to implement portable alpha Discuss key considerations in running a portable alpha approach Provide a live demonstration of how investors can evaluate different portable alpha ideas Perfect For: Investment professionals seeking to enhance their portfolio construction toolkit. Advisors looking to provide better diversification solutions for their clients. Advisors looking to introduce unique sources of alpha for their clients.
Fri, December 27, 2024
John Skrentny: STEM Burnout and the Future of US Scientific Innovation
In this episode, we delve into the world of STEM education with John Skrentny, a professor of sociology at UC San Diego. We discuss the current state of STEM education, its implications for the future workforce, and the intersection of technology, policy, and societal needs. Topics Discussed • The importance of STEM education and the common misconception that more STEM graduates equate to more innovation • The comparison of STEM job opportunities in different countries, with a focus on the United States and Japan • The exploration of the reasons why many STEM graduates choose to pursue careers outside of their field of study • The discussion on the perceived shortage of STEM graduates in the job market and the behaviors of employers • The impact of technological advancements, particularly AI, on the demand for STEM skills • The importance of developing a wide range of skills for career longevity and adaptability in the rapidly changing job market • The exploration of the role of universities in providing continuous education and training for a diverse range of careers • The discussion on the value of humanities in the context of technological advancement and societal needs This episode provides valuable insights into the complexities of STEM education and its role in shaping the future workforce. It is a must-listen for anyone interested in education, technology, and the future of work.
Fri, December 20, 2024
12 Days of Trading Christmas
In this exciting episode, Rodrigo Gordillo, Meb Faber, Corey Hoffstein, and Wes Gray discuss their investment ideas for 2025 and beyond. Each brings three unique ideas to the table, making for a lively and insightful conversation. Topics Discussed • Rodrigo Gordillo discusses the idea of matching the risk of Bitcoin by levering up gold, providing insights on how to achieve an equal risk allocation between Bitcoin and gold • Meb Faber shares his thoughts on the potential of cannabis as an investment and the risks and rewards of bonds in the current financial climate • Corey Hoffstein proposes a complex crypto trade that could potentially yield significant returns but also carries a high risk • Wes Gray suggests a new approach to exchange funds to make them more transparent, easier to manage, and more cost-effective • The group discusses the potential of GameStop and Bitcoin as investments, with differing opinions on their viability • Meb Faber proposes a unique investment strategy based on taking the opposite position of the crowd consensus on Twitter • Wes Gray shares his thoughts on the current state of the energy sector and its potential for future growth This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in unique investment ideas and strategies, offering a wealth of knowledge and perspectives from leading financial experts. Tune in to gain valuable insights and prepare for the financial landscape of 2025 and beyond.
Thu, December 19, 2024
Befi is Dead; Long Live Befi! with Shaping Wealth’s Brian Portnoy
In this episode, we delve into the world of behavioral finance and financial planning with Brian Portnoy, one of the co-founders of Shaping Wealth. We discuss the importance of understanding human behavior in financial planning, the concept of 'behavioral finance 2.0', and how financial advisors can better serve their clients by taking a more human-centric approach. Topics Discussed • Discussion on normalizing human behavior in financial planning and the emergence of 'behavioral finance 2.0', which focuses on understanding the humanity of clients rather than their flaws • Exploration of the difference between reflective happiness and life satisfaction, and how these concepts can guide financial planning • Insights into the role of identity and narrative in financial planning, and how advisors can help clients navigate these complex dimensions • Discussion on how individuals can engage in self-reflection and maintain honesty in their financial journey despite external influences • Introduction to the concept of 'funded contentment' and how it relates to wealth and financial planning • Discussion on the recruitment and training of advisors suited for a human-centric approach to financial planning • Insights into the sensitive and complex nature of discussing identity and purpose with clients, and the importance of having better coaching skills • Introduction to Lydia, an AI tool designed to assist financial advisors by providing empathetic and insightful guidance • Discussion on the potential of Lydia to enhance the financial advising process by providing personalized insights and suggestions based on the advisor's patterns and past conversations This episode provides valuable insights into the evolving field of financial planning, emphasizing the need for a more human-centric approach. It introduces innovative tools and methodologies that can enhance the advisor-client relationship and ultimately lead to better financial outcomes. A must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of behavioral finance, financial planning, and AI technology.
Mon, December 09, 2024
Elevate Your Return Stacks with the Combined Power of Trend & Carry
In today's complex market environment, finding genuine diversification and consistent returns has become increasingly challenging. What if you could harness two of the least correlated strategies to traditional portfolios available to investors today? Join us for an exclusive webinar where Rodrigo Gordillo, Portfolio Manager and co-founder of Return Stacked ETFs, reveals how combining trend following and carry strategies as stacks may create a whole that is much greater than the sum of their parts. In this educational session, we will explore: The Fundamental Drivers - behind trend following and carry strategies - understand why these strategies work and how they can enhance your portfolio's performance Beyond Traditional Diversification - learn how managed futures can provide true diversification benefits when equity and bond correlations spike The Golden Combination - explore why the synergy between trend and carry strategies creates a more resilient portfolio across different market regimes Real-World Applications - examine historical analogues and practical implementation strategies for your investment approach
Fri, December 06, 2024
Reinventing Money: Jordan MacLeod on Demurrage, Wealth Tax, and the Future Economy
In this riveting episode, we dive deep into the world of fiscal and monetary systems, post the global financial crisis of 2008. We are joined by Jordan MacLeod, an intellectual powerhouse who has been at the forefront of revolutionizing the global monetary system. We discuss the trends identified in 2009, the impact of 2008 on the urgency to rethink monetary frameworks, and the potential for a global rebalancing in economic and monetary frameworks. Topics Discussed • The journey of Jordan MacLeod's intellectual background and his work on identifying global trends and the future • The impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the urgency to rethink monetary frameworks • The potential for a global rebalancing in economic and monetary frameworks • The concept of a zero interest economy and its implications • The role of AI, robotics, and automation in changing the nature of labor markets • The possibility of moving from a financialized economy to a real economy • The mechanism to migrate from a speculative economy to a real economy • The potential of a new monetary system and the signs to look for that decision makers are moving in this direction This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of the global monetary system, the potential for a shift towards a real economy, and the implications of AI and automation on labor markets. Join us as we navigate through these intricate topics, providing valuable insights and strategies to understand the uncertain financial landscape. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, November 29, 2024
Dr. Robert Frank on ‘Smart for One But Dumb for All’
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Dr. Robert Frank, the Henrietta Johnson Lewis Professor of Management Emeritus and Professor of Economics at the Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University. They delve into the role of luck in success, the myth of meritocracy, and the dynamics of free markets. They explore various topics, including: Topics Discussed • The approach to both microeconomics and macroeconomics in the textbooks co-authored with Dr. Ben Bernanke • The impact of behavioral economics on the understanding of microeconomics and macroeconomics • The role of luck and meritocracy in success and how policy is informed by this understanding • The concept of 'smart for one, dumb for all' in the context of competition • The implications of the Darwin Economy and the interplay between individual self-interest and societal outcomes • The effects of tax structures on entrepreneurial initiative and economic growth • The need for effective human coordination to solve major problems and improve the future This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complex dynamics of economics, the role of luck in success, and the impact of policy decisions on societal outcomes. It provides valuable insights into the intricacies of economic theories and their practical implications. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, November 15, 2024
How A.I. is Revolutionizing Learning & Trading with Kris Abdelmessih
In this episode, Kris Abdelmessih, Co-Founder of Moontower AI, and Adam Butler, CEO of ReSolve Asset Management, join the ReSolve team to discuss the challenges and rewards of parenting, the role of education, and the intricacies of the options market. They delve into a variety of topics, including: Topics Discussed • Kris and Adam's differing views on the importance of academic excellence versus exploration in children's education • The role of AI tools in helping kids complete their homework faster and encouraging them to be resourceful • The importance of resilience, self-directed curiosity, and critical thinking in children's development • The concept of 'shape of returns' in the options market and how it differs from hard outcomes in options contracts • The idea of using ETFs as a toolset to execute investment ideas based on volatility • The progression of Moontower AI and how it helps investors understand and navigate the options market This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of parenting, education, and finance. It provides valuable insights into the role of exploration in children's development, the potential of AI tools in education, and the complexities of the options market. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, November 01, 2024
Aligning Spirit, Mind, Body & Money with Justin Castelli
In this episode, the ReSolve team delves into a profound conversation with Justin Caselli, a financial advisor and life coach, who shares his journey of self-discovery and alignment of spirit, mind, and body. He discusses how this alignment influences financial stability and the concept of living an authentic life. Topics Discussed • Justin's personal journey of self-discovery and the importance of aligning spirit, mind, and body for overall happiness and financial stability • The concept of life design and the pursuit of an authentic life • The role of introspection in understanding one's authentic self and how it impacts financial decisions • The impact of consciousness levels on the effectiveness of financial advisors and the quality of their advice • The concept of Life Design Planning and its role in helping clients live their best life • How aligning personal values with financial planning can lead to a more fulfilling and financially secure life • The concept of the 'authentic life' and how it influences financial decisions and overall life satisfaction • The importance of living an authentic life and its impact on client relationships and business growth • Justin's daily notes as a part of his process and his vision for them This episode is a must-listen for anyone seeking to understand the connection between personal fulfillment and financial stability. Justin's insights provide a fresh perspective on financial advising, emphasizing the importance of living an authentic life and aligning one's spirit, mind, and body. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, October 25, 2024
Doomberg - Chips, China & Power Plays: The Big Bets on a Multipolar World
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Doomberg, a popular regular on the show, to discuss a wide range of topics including AI, geopolitics, energy, and the financial markets. They delve into the complexities of the emerging multipolar world, the rise of China in the technology sector, the implications of AI, and the potential risks and nuances within different levels of the capital structure. Topics Discussed • The rise of China and its implications for the Western world in terms of semiconductors, high computing, and Quantum computing • The potential of AI and its transformative impact on professional lives and the world at large • The geopolitical risks, specifically the Chinese intent on dominating the business landscape • The unique situation of Taiwan as a major producer of semiconductors and its implications for global supply chains • The challenges of predicting the decisions of nonlinear systems and the impact of major perturbations on politics, energy, society, and culture • The role of social media in amplifying voices from the edge of the network and the challenges this presents for lay people and experts alike • The potential for a breakdown in trust between the population and the government-media-medical nexus • The impact of the changing energy landscape on the U.S.'s geopolitical world view This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of the emerging multipolar world, the role of AI, and the geopolitical shifts in the global landscape. It provides valuable insights into the intricacies of these topics and strategies to navigate the uncertain future. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Sat, October 19, 2024
Diversification 2.0: Mastering the Art of Portable Alpha
Portable alpha (or as we like to call it: Return Stacking) has become increasingly popular in the financial media (including recent notes from industry giants like BlackRock, Russell Investments, and AQR) but many advisors are left asking: What does portable alpha mean? How might it benefit clients? How can I implement it? At Return Stacked Portfolio Solutions we have made it our mission to thoughtfully and transparently help allocate into a portable alpha framework for client portfolios. Join us for this deep dive podcast with Corey Hoffstein, CIO of Newfound Research, and Rodrigo Gordillo, President and Portfolio Manager at ReSolve Asset Management Global, as we explore: What 'Portable Alpha' is: Review of the history and theory of the concept. Outperformance Potential: Portable alpha/return stacking allows allocators to stack asset classes/strategies with positive expected returns on top of core assets which can help improve the likelihood of outperforming the market. Diversification Benefits: Using return stacking to stack low correlation strategies on top of the core portfolio can help reduce portfolio drawdowns, thus influencing likelihood of achieving financial plan goals. Behavioral Benefits: Sticking with low-correlation diversifiers can be difficult for clients. Return stacking can improve the likelihood clients stick with diversifiers long enough for them to realize the benefits. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, October 18, 2024
Mike Harris: The Price of Progress: AGI, Philosophy, and the Future of Humanity
In this interview, Adam Butler is in conversation with Mike Harris, a renowned financial market analyst and philosopher. The discussion is sparked by a Twitter exchange about the impact of low interest rates on the working class. The conversation evolves to cover a wide range of topics from the relationship between Quantitative Easing (QE) and technological advancements, to the philosophical underpinnings of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and the potential of AGI to uncover lost knowledge. Topics Discussed • The counterintuitive argument that higher interest rates are better for the working class • The relationship between QE and the acceleration in the production of transistors • The role of technology in financing and the arms race around AI • The exploration of the philosophical principles that underpin AGI • The potential of AGI to uncover lost knowledge and its implications • The discussion of the knowledge paradox and its relevance in the era of big data • The historical suppression of knowledge by the church and its impact on the development of technology • The potential of AGI to recreate the lost knowledge and its implications for humanity This episode is a thought-provoking exploration of the intersection of economics, technology, and philosophy. It provides valuable insights into the potential of AGI and the role it could play in uncovering lost knowledge. It's a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the broader implications of AI and the future of knowledge. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, October 11, 2024
Eric Balchunas: The Hidden Gems of the ETF World You Need to Know!
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Eric Balchunas to discuss the current state of the ETF industry, the rise of active ETFs, and the impact of Bitcoin and crypto on the market. Eric shares his insights on the 'hot sauce' approach to investing, the role of psychology in investment decisions, and the future of the ETF market. Topics Discussed • Discussion on the concept of 'hot sauce' in investing, where investors allocate a small portion of their portfolio to high-risk, high-reward assets • Insights into the psychology of investing and how it can sometimes overpower logical investment decisions • Analysis of the rise of active ETFs and the factors contributing to their success • Discussion on the role of traditional active managers in the ETF market • Examination of the impact of Bitcoin and crypto on the ETF industry and the potential future of this market segment • Insights into the concept of 'conversational alpha' and its role in investment decisions • Discussion on the role of the Federal Reserve and its impact on the market • Insights into the phenomenon of single stock ETFs and their place in the market • Discussion on the potential for a bear market in the future and the factors that could contribute to this • Insights into the concept of 'buffer ETFs' and their role in providing stability for investors This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the ETF industry, active investing strategies, and the impact of Bitcoin and crypto on the market. Eric's insights provide valuable perspectives on the current state of the market and potential future trends. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, October 04, 2024
Viktor Shvets: Surviving a World on Fire: Lessons from History and the Future
In this episode, the ReSolve team engages in a thought-provoking discussion with Viktor Shvets, a renowned global strategist and author. They delve into the complexities of the current global economic landscape, exploring topics like societal polarization, monetary policy, and the role of demographics in shaping the future. Topics Discussed • A deep dive into the societal polarization occurring on a local level across various countries and its implications on economic policies • The comparison of current times to the 1930s, rather than the 1970s, and the reasons behind this perspective • A discussion on the changing perception of China's role in the global economy and its shift in government policy post the global financial crisis • An exploration of the role of demographics in Europe's economic scenario and the challenges posed by the aging population • Insights into the shift from labor-driven productivity to intangible capital-driven productivity • A detailed analysis of the parallels between the current period and the 1930s, with a focus on the increasing role of the government • The exploration of the potential models to replace the current capitalist system • A discussion on the future of China's economy, the challenges it faces, and the potential policies it could introduce to absorb excess capacity • An examination of the potential reshuffling of the global order due to the ambiguity of the right kinds of economic policies • Advice for investors on how to navigate the uncertain financial landscape and build resilience considering the potential economic whiplashes This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of the global economy, the potential future of capitalism, and the role of demographics and government policies in shaping our future. Viktor Shvets provides invaluable insights and predictions, making this a compelling conversation for investors and anyone interested in global economic trends. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, July 19, 2024
Ben Reeves: From Bridgewater to Wealthsimple: Institutional investing Through a Robo Advisor
In this episode, the ReSolve team chats with Ben Reeves, a seasoned financial professional with a wealth of experience in portfolio construction and investment strategies. Ben shares his journey from working at Bridgewater to facing a health crisis, and eventually joining Wealthsimple. The conversation delves into the intricacies of allocation research, portfolio design, and the challenges and opportunities in the private investment space. Topics Discussed • Ben's transition from institutional investors to portfolio construction and his learnings from Bridgewater • The impact of a health crisis on Ben's career and his shift to Wealthsimple • The essence of long-term investing and the importance of putting money at risk in a reasonable way • The exploration of privates as a first step in diversifying investment portfolios • The challenge of tracking error constraints in portfolio design and how Wealthsimple navigates this • The behavioral advantage of privates and the fear of giving up liquidity • The difficulty for active managers to reliably outperform without overweighting certain sectors • The role of gold and commodities in diversifying portfolios and mitigating risk • The importance of putting money at risk in a reasonable way and avoiding performance chasing • The potential of leverage as a diversifying tool or a risk-reducing tool • The constraints and considerations in adding leverage to portfolios • The personalization of portfolio construction and the shift towards risk parity This episode provides a deep dive into the world of portfolio construction, the role of privates in diversifying portfolios, and the challenges of tracking error constraints. Ben Reeves offers valuable insights from his experience at Wealthsimple and Bridgewater, making this a must-listen for anyone interested in investment strategies and portfolio design. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube Friday afternoons to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, June 07, 2024
Alfonso Peccatiello: Unveiling the Macro Endgame: The Wealth Illusion Paradigm
In this episode, Alfonso Peccatiello, a renowned macro investor, joins the ReSolve team to delve into the macro end game, the impact of leverage on the financial system, and the potential paths forward. They also discuss the role of politicians in managing fiscal interventions and the increasing volatility in the macro environment. Topics Discussed • The concept of the macro end game and the unsustainability of the current financial system • The role of leverage in offsetting dwindling structural growth and its implications for the global economy • The impact of central banks' decisions to stimulate economic growth by lowering interest rates • The wealth illusion effect and its implications on the U.S. economy • The potential paths forward considering the high levels of debt and low interest rates • The shift from anti-cyclical to pro-cyclical use of fiscal policy by politicians • The need for a global macro framework in asset allocation considering the current high-leverage, high-interest rate environment • The launch of Alfonso's global macro hedge fund and its strategy to navigate the increasing macro volatility This episode is a must-listen for anyone looking to understand the complexities of the global financial system, the role of leverage and fiscal policy, and strategies to navigate the increasing macro volatility. Alfonso's insights provide valuable strategies for navigating the uncertain financial landscape and understanding the potential paths forward. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube Friday afternoons to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, May 31, 2024
Navigating Market Volatility: Mastering Managed Futures and Carry Strategies
In this episode, ReSolve team members Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo discuss the concept of market volatility and its implications for investment strategies. They delve into the intricacies of Carry strategies, their impact on portfolio returns, and how to navigate market volatility effectively. Topics Discussed • The concept of Carry in the investment world and its potential applications • The role of Trend and Yield in creating a fund • The importance of understanding the Carry strategy and approach • The impact of economic risk on Carry signals and expected future returns • Building Carry strategies using time spreads or calendar spreads • The influence of Absolute Carry and Relative Value Carry on performance • The effect of estimated real trade frictions on returns • The correlation between Carry and other assets in a portfolio • The performance of Carry in different market regimes • The benefits of diversification and the role of Carry in enhancing portfolio returns This episode provides valuable insights into the world of market volatility and Carry strategies. It highlights the importance of understanding these concepts for effective investment decision-making and portfolio management. A must-listen for anyone interested in deepening their understanding of market dynamics and investment strategies. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube Friday afternoons to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, May 24, 2024
Roger King: Building a Franchise Empire: The Story of Supplement King
In this episode, we have an engaging conversation with Roger King, the mastermind behind the successful Supplement King franchise. Roger shares his journey from starting as a local supplement provider to becoming a renowned name in the industry. He discusses his business strategies, the importance of understanding the market, and the challenges he faced along the way. Topics Discussed • Roger King's early journey into the world of supplements and how he identified an underserviced opportunity in the natural health products market. • The challenges and lessons learned from transitioning from a single store to multiple retail locations and eventually moving to online sales. • The importance of understanding the market and adjusting business strategies accordingly, including the shift from being a brand-building retailer to focusing on being the best retailer. • Insights into the franchise model of Supplement King, and how they ensure the success of their franchisees. • The strategy behind their social media marketing and the role of influencers in promoting their products. • A look at the future of the supplement industry and the potential for innovation in the face of regulatory restrictions. • Roger King's personal life and hobbies, and how he balances them with running a successful business. This episode is a goldmine for anyone interested in understanding the dynamics of the supplement industry, franchising, and online retail. Roger King's insights and experiences provide a unique perspective on navigating the challenges of the business world and achieving success. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, May 17, 2024
Value Investing is BACK - with Tobias Carlisle
In this episode, we delve into the world of value investing with Tobias Carlisle, the founder of The Acquirer's Multiple and author of the book 'The Acquirer's Multiple'. From his journey from a lawyer in Australia to a value funds manager in California, to his unique approach towards value investing, this conversation is a treasure trove of insights for anyone interested in the financial markets. Topics Discussed Tobias Carlisle's journey from a lawyer in Australia to a value funds manager in California A discussion on the performance of Carlisle's ETF ZIG and its outperformance of S&P over the last three years The challenges and rewards of being a value investor in a market dominated by growth investing Insights into Carlisle's investment strategy, including his emphasis on fundamental performance over price action The role of patience and behavioral fortitude in value investing Carlisle's views on the future opportunities for value investing, particularly in the context of sector diversification Reflections on the recent Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting and the lessons learned from Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger Carlisle's personal investment mantra and his advice for navigating the ups and downs of the investing world This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in value investing. Tobias Carlisle's insights, drawn from his extensive experience and unique approach to investing, provide valuable strategies to navigate the financial markets. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this conversation is sure to provide you with plenty of food for thought. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, May 02, 2024
E1: Enter the New World of Return Stacking - Inaugural Episode!
In today’s ReSolve Riffs we’re taking the opportunity to introduce the inaugural episode of a brand new podcast channel called the Get Stacked Investment Podcast. In this series, we dive deep into the world of Return Stacking, exploring the latest projects, content, and insights from the www.returnstacked.com website. Co-hosted by Corey Hosteen, CIO of Newfound Research, along with the support of our own Mike Philbrick and Adam Butler this promises to be an insightful and valuable too in your investment arsenal. Subscribe to the Get Stacked feed using the link in the description to stay up-to-date with the latest episodes and never miss a beat in the exciting new world of Return Stacking. In this episode, Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, and Rodrigo Gordillo and Adam Butler of Resolve Asset Management Global, discuss the concept of return stacking and its implications for investors. They delve into the challenges of beating the large-cap U.S. equities market, the shift in conversations about return stacking from risk management to creating excess returns, and the potential of diversification in generating consistent positive excess returns. Topics Discussed • The difficulties of beating the large cap U.S. equities market and the need for diversification • The shift in conversations about return stacking from risk management to creating excess returns • The potential of diversification in generating consistent positive excess returns • The idea of dictum in the markets and the difference between behavioral time and statistical time • The concept of risk parity and the importance of maintaining balance in portfolio risk • The role of trend following in risk management and return stacking • The potential of stacking strategies in enhancing portfolio returns • The structural challenges in implementing return stacked strategies in portfolios • The importance of diversification in ensuring investment success This episode provides valuable insights into the concept of return stacking and its potential in enhancing portfolio returns. It is a must-listen for investors interested in diversification strategies and the future of investment management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, April 26, 2024
Jared Dillian: The Hidden Dangers in the Global Economy
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Jared Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of the book No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life. They delve into a variety of topics, including the power of diversification, the importance of understanding financial stress, and the current state of global financial markets. Topics Discussed • Jared Dillian's perspective on the current macro views on monetary policy, hard assets, and other financial matters • The concept of financial stress and how to minimize it, focusing on debt and risk • The importance of time and rational decision-making in buying a house • A discussion on the current state of advice in the financial industry • The 'Awesome Portfolio' - a diversification strategy that includes stocks, bonds, cash, gold, and real estate • The role of gold in a diversified portfolio and its comparison to Dennis Rodman's role in a basketball team • The potential future of inflation and its impact on the global economy • An exploration of emerging markets, with a focus on India and Argentina • A discussion on potential future challenges in the financial market, including the possibility of high interest rates This episode offers valuable insights into financial stress, diversification strategies, and the future of global financial markets. It's a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of the financial world and gaining strategies to navigate the uncertain financial landscape.
Fri, April 19, 2024
Andy Constan: Are You Ready for Act 3? This is Mission Control: Ready for Takeoff!
In this episode, Andy Constan, a veteran Wall Street professional, joins the ReSolve team to discuss the intricacies of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, the impact of long-term borrowing rates on the economy, and the role of financial advisors in the investment industry. They delve into a wide array of topics, shedding light on the complexities of asset allocation, the influence of policy makers on market dynamics, and the future prospects of bonds and equities. Topics Discussed • Andy Constan's perspective on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and their impact on long-term borrowing rates • The role of financial advisors in the investment industry and the importance of informed conversations between advisors and clients • Insights into the complexities of asset allocation and the challenges of stock picking • The impact of long-term interest rates on the economy and the potential implications for inflation • The role of policy makers in changing market dynamics and the potential effects of their decisions • Predictions for the future performance of bonds and equities, and the factors that could influence these outcomes • The potential impact of government spending and fiscal policies on the expected trajectories of the market This episode is a deep dive into the complexities of financial markets, interest rates, and asset allocation. Andy Constan provides valuable insights from his extensive experience on Wall Street, making this a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the intricate dynamics of the investment industry and the potential future of bonds and equities. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, April 12, 2024
Jeff Weniger-Pension Wars: Why Everything is About to Change and How to Profit
Introduction In this episode, we are thrilled to have Jeff Weniger, the Chief U.S. Strategist for WisdomTree ETFs, back on the show. Jeff shares his insights on a range of topics, including the 'pension wars' concept, the potential for a domino effect in global equity markets, and the role of financial engineering in shaping investment strategies. Topics Discussed • Discussion on the 'pension wars' concept and its potential impact on asset flows over the next several years • Exploration of the potential domino effect in global equity markets and the implications for investment strategies • Insight into the role of financial engineering in shaping investment strategies, with a focus on the 1980s and 1990s • Analysis of the impact of rising natural gas prices on diversified enterprises and the broader market • Discussion on the future of work, with a focus on the shift towards remote work and its potential implications for the labor market This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of global equity markets, the potential impact of the 'pension wars' concept, and the future of work. Jeff Weniger's insights provide valuable strategies to navigate the uncertain financial landscape and better understand the intricacies of investment strategies. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, March 22, 2024
Jason Buck: Investing Russian Roulette - An Ergodicity Masterclass
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Jason Buck, co-founder and CIO of Mutiny Funds, to delve into a range of topics, from the concept of ergodicity, portfolio construction, and the importance of diversification in investing. They also discuss the intricacies of the capital efficiency and tax implications of various investment strategies. Topics Discussed • Jason Buck's explanation of ergodic and non-ergodic concepts using the analogy of Russian Roulette • The importance of understanding expected value in portfolio construction • The role of offense plus defense in winning investing championships • The concept of capital efficiency in using leverage and its implications for investment strategies • The tax implications of Return Stacking and how to navigate them • The significance of broad diversification in investment strategies • The impact of different market conditions on the performance of long volatility managers • The importance of maintaining line items in the portfolio for risk protection This episode provides valuable insights into the complexities of investment strategies, portfolio construction, and the importance of diversification, and is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the nuances of investing and portfolio management. This is "ReSolve's Riffs" – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association ("NFA"). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, March 15, 2024
Doomberg: The Dangerous Game of Modern Economic Warfare
In this episode, the team riffs with Doomberg, a renowned energy analyst, to discuss a range of issues from the global energy landscape to geopolitical tensions and the changing nature of warfare. The conversation also delves into the intricacies of the global natural gas market, the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the potential future of nuclear energy. Topics Discussed • Discussion on the global energy landscape, with a focus on natural gas and its role in the U.S. economy • Insights into the geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine, and the implications of the fall of the city of Avdiivka • Examination of the changing nature of warfare, with a focus on the use of drones and the complexity of modern military conflicts • Analysis of the impact of sanctions on Russia, the effectiveness of these measures, and the potential repercussions on the global stage • Exploration of the global natural gas market, its future prospects, and the implications for the U.S. economy • Discussion on the weaponization of the U.S. dollar and the potential for gold to emerge as a neutral reserve asset • Insights into the potential future of nuclear energy, spurred by Amazon's entrance into the nuclear sector This episode offers a deep dive into the complexities of the current global landscape, from energy markets to geopolitical conflicts. It provides valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding these dynamics and their implications for the future. The discussion with Doomberg offers a unique perspective, blending energy analysis with geopolitical understanding, making this episode a must-listen for those seeking to navigate the intricacies of the global stage. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, March 08, 2024
Jack Shannon: Unveiling the Future of Active Management and ETFs
In this episode, we are joined by Jack Shannon, Senior Analyst at Morningstar, to discuss the dynamics of active equity management, portfolio construction, and the importance of downside protection in long-term investment success. Jack shares his insights on various topics, including: Topics Discussed • The asymmetry of returns and the importance of preserving capital on the downside •The role of active equity managers and the challenges they face in deviating from benchmarks •The impact of fund flows on portfolio management and the potential risks of passive investing •The role of risk management in active investing and the difficulty of identifying winning strategies in advance •The changing dynamics of growth and value investing, and the importance of understanding market history This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in active equity management, portfolio construction, and long-term investing. Jack's insights provide valuable strategies to navigate the complexities of the financial markets and better understand the nuances of active management.
Fri, March 01, 2024
BTC ETF Impacts and what’s next with 3iQ Founder Fred Pye
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Fred Pye, Founder of 3iQ Digital Assets, to discuss the rapidly evolving landscape of digital assets and blockchain technology. They delve into various topics, including the rise of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the future of the digital asset space. Topics Discussed •The transition of the financial world towards digital assets and the implications of blockchain technology •The role and impact of intermediaries such as Coinbase and FTX in the digital asset space •The journey and development of 3iQ Digital Assets over the past nine years •The potential of blockchain technology in tracking global trade and reducing transaction costs •The future of bond and equity trading on the blockchain •The regulatory challenges and developments in the digital asset space •The difference between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets •The potential growth and opportunities in the digital asset space for investors •The importance of understanding and navigating the risks in the digital asset space This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the future of digital assets, blockchain technology, and the potential opportunities and challenges in this rapidly evolving space. Fred Pye provides valuable insights and strategies to navigate the digital asset landscape, offering a glimpse into the future of finance and investment. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, February 16, 2024
ReSolve Crew: Mastering Investment Strategies in an Age of Inflation Volatility
In this episode, the RAM Crew dives deep into the intricacies of monetary policy, inflation, and the impact of these factors on the global economy. They discuss the complexities of inflation, the role of the Federal Reserve, and the potential future of the financial landscape. Topics Discussed • Discussion on the shift in monetary policy and its implications • Insight into the misunderstanding of inflation and its workings • Examination of the impact of inflation on asset classes and financial markets • Analysis of the potential increase in volatility across assets • Discussion on the potential for more variance in inflation • Exploration of the impact of AI on the service economy and potential for re-acceleration of growth • Review of historical inflationary shocks and their implications for the future • Discussion on the potential for higher volatility in the financial markets • Insight into the potential for strong economic growth and low unemployment • Discussion on the risk management techniques for portfolios • Analysis of the potential for wealth altering events in the financial markets • Discussion on the potential for inflation shocks and the role of commodities • Insight into the potential benefits of trend following managed futures strategies • Discussion on the concept of carry and its potential impact on portfolios • Analysis of the potential benefits and risks of investing in concentrated value ETFs • Discussion on the potential for a hotter than expected economy over the next year • Insight into the potential mispricing in the financial markets • Discussion on the potential impact of inflation on equities and bonds This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of inflation, monetary policy, and their impact on the global economy. The RAM Crew provides valuable insights and strategies for navigating the uncertain financial landscape and better understanding the intricacies of the financial markets. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, February 09, 2024
Explained! Systematic Options Strategies with David Sun - David Sun
In this discussion, the ReSolve team is joined by David Sun, a retail investor turned hedge fund manager with a background in engineering. David shares his journey from options trading during grad school to launching two private options-based hedge funds. He discusses the intricacies of options trading, the importance of risk management, and the evolution of his investment strategies. Topics Discussed •David Sun's background in engineering and his transition into options trading and hedge fund management •The launch of David's two private options-based hedge funds and the rationale behind having two separate funds •The importance of risk management in options trading and how David's strategies have evolved to minimize volatility drag •The concept of return stacking portfolios and how it has been applied in David's funds •The role of diversification in enhancing portfolio performance and reducing risk •The potential of long volatility strategies as a diversifier and how they can be applied in retail investing •The impact of market changes on strategy backtesting and the importance of continuously updating strategies to reflect current market conditions •David's views on the future of his funds and the potential for launching a third fund •David's public presence and his efforts to educate retail investors through his podcast, The Trade Busters David Sun provides a unique perspective on options trading and hedge fund management, drawing from his background in engineering and his experiences as a retail investor. His insights into risk management, portfolio diversification, and strategy development offer valuable lessons for anyone interested in the intricacies of options trading and hedge fund management. This episode is a must-listen for those looking to deepen their understanding of these complex financial landscapes. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on Friday afternoons to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association ("NFA"). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, February 02, 2024
Chris Schindler: Hedge Fund Sorcerer Schindler Shares Secrets from his Spellbook
In this episode, Adam Butler and Mike Philbrick of ReSolve Asset Management have an in-depth conversation with Chris Schindler, a seasoned investment professional. They delve into a range of topics, from the intricacies of investing in tech and the dynamics of the credit market, to the complexities of portfolio construction and the impact of market forces on investment strategies. Topics Discussed •The challenges of investing in tech and the role of analysts in creating crowding effects •The importance of understanding the dynamics of the credit market and the implications of holding credit right through maturity •The intricacies of portfolio construction, including the importance of diversifying across strategies, assets, and time •The impact of market forces on investment strategies and the role of benchmarking in driving investor behavior •The evolution of the volatility market and the influence of large players on market dynamics •The concept of 'netting' in multi-strategy portfolios and its impact on trading costs •The challenges of attribution in multi-strategy portfolios and the importance of understanding the underlying strategies •The potential pitfalls of short-term investment strategies and the importance of a long-term perspective This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in gaining a deeper understanding of the complexities of the investment landscape. Chris Schindler provides valuable insights into the nuances of portfolio construction, the dynamics of the credit market, and the impact of market forces on investment strategies, offering strategies to navigate the ever-evolving financial landscape. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodit
Fri, January 26, 2024
Julian Brigden - A Massively, Massively, Massively Overvalued Market
In this episode, we delve into a comprehensive discussion with Julian Brigden, a renowned global macro strategist. Brigden shares his insights on the current state of the US equity market, the economic implications of the Goldilocks narrative, the potential risks of the bond market, and the future of global economies like the UK, Europe, and Japan. This episode offers a deep-dive into the complexities of global economics and financial markets. Topics Discussed • Brigden's perspective on the US equity market being massively overvalued compared to the rest of the world • Discussion on the dominant narrative of the Goldilocks soft landing and its statistical rarity • Insights into the potential risks and consequences of the Fed's rate cuts • Analysis of the resilience of countries like Australia, Canada, and the UK in the face of high rates • Brigden's views on the structural bear market in fixed income and its implications • Discussion on the potential for growth and inflation to run hotter than consensus • Insights into the political and economic state of Japan and the potential for autonomous growth • Discussion on the potential trades and market trends to watch out for This episode provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of global economies and financial markets. Brigden's insights offer valuable perspectives for anyone interested in understanding the intricacies of global macroeconomics and financial strategies. The audience will gain a deeper understanding of the complexities of global markets and potential future trends. This is "ReSolve Riffs" – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary
Fri, January 19, 2024
Jim Bianco: Inflation is Dead - Long Live Inflation! How YOU Can Profit NOWJ
In this episode, we have the pleasure of hosting James A. Bianco, Founder of Bianco Research Advisors. Bianco shares his insights on a wide range of topics, from his macroeconomic framework to the impact of inflation on the global economy. This conversation also delves into the implications of the current political and military climate outside the U.S. and the workings of the Bianco Total Return Index. Topics Discussed • A brief introduction to James A. Bianco's career trajectory and the establishment of Bianco Research Advisors • Understanding Bianco's macroeconomic framework, including his approach to analyzing the macro space and the key indicators he focuses on • An in-depth discussion on inflation, its current state, and its potential implications on the global economy • Exploring the role of the Federal Reserve in managing inflation expectations and the potential risks associated with their strategies • A look at the current political and military landscape outside the U.S., and its potential impact on the global economy • Discussion on the potential impact of shipping disruptions in the Red Sea on the global supply chain and inflation • Insights into the bond market, including the potential impact of higher interest rates on the equity market • An exploration of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee's role in advising the Treasury on bond and note issuance • A discussion on the potential signals for a hard economic landing or recession, and what could indicate a stronger economy than anticipated • An introduction to the Bianco Total Return Index and a discussion on the future of actively managed ETFs in the equity market This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in macroeconomics, inflation, and the global economy. Bianco's insights provide a comprehensive understanding of the current economic landscape and offer valuable strategies for navigating potential future scenarios. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Is
Fri, January 19, 2024
Jim Bianco: Inflation is Dead - Long Live Inflation! How YOU Can Profit NOW
In this episode, we have the pleasure of hosting James A. Bianco, Founder of Bianco Research Advisors. Bianco shares his insights on a wide range of topics, from his macroeconomic framework to the impact of inflation on the global economy. This conversation also delves into the implications of the current political and military climate outside the U.S. and the workings of the Bianco Total Return Index. Topics Discussed • A brief introduction to James A. Bianco's career trajectory and the establishment of Bianco Research Advisors • Understanding Bianco's macroeconomic framework, including his approach to analyzing the macro space and the key indicators he focuses on • An in-depth discussion on inflation, its current state, and its potential implications on the global economy • Exploring the role of the Federal Reserve in managing inflation expectations and the potential risks associated with their strategies • A look at the current political and military landscape outside the U.S., and its potential impact on the global economy • Discussion on the potential impact of shipping disruptions in the Red Sea on the global supply chain and inflation • Insights into the bond market, including the potential impact of higher interest rates on the equity market • An exploration of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee's role in advising the Treasury on bond and note issuance • A discussion on the potential signals for a hard economic landing or recession, and what could indicate a stronger economy than anticipated • An introduction to the Bianco Total Return Index and a discussion on the future of actively managed ETFs in the equity market This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in macroeconomics, inflation, and the global economy. Bianco's insights provide a comprehensive understanding of the current economic landscape and offer valuable strategies for navigating potential future scenarios. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Author
Fri, January 12, 2024
Chris Kennedy: Decoding the Evolution of Managed Futures Hedge Funds
In this informative episode, we dive deep into a conversation with Chris Kennedy from Bridge Alternatives about his career, investment strategies, and perspectives on managed futures. We take a detailed look at model complexity, the necessity of balance in trading, the impact of trend intimacy, and the challenges of creating efficient investment reporting methods. We also talk about the exciting possibilities of artificial intelligence in trading and the unique attributes of the commodity space. Learn about the compelling world of investment from an expert who has been integral to its development. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, December 21, 2023
Mark Yaxley- Inside the Vault (Literally!): Mining the Wisdom of Gold
Join the ReSolve Crew on an exciting tour inside the Strategic Wealth Preservation Vault in the Cayman Islands. With SWP's Mark Yaxley as their host, they discuss the unique properties of gold as a wealth insurance and its long history as a trusted asset across cultures and borders, and why it should be a part of a diversified portfolio. Built around the precious metal, the vault embodies top-notch security and gold-centric design. The conversation touches on how gold's characteristics - longevity, malleability, and ubiquity - make it uniquely suited as both an enduring asset and a geopolitical hedge against fiat currency fluctuations. The group also explores the challenges and misconceptions faced by miners, the role of central bank purchasing, and the potential of location swapping for easier access to physical assets. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, December 15, 2023
Meb Faber-Unlocking the Secrets of Systematic Investing: Maximizing Your Wealth
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Meb Faber, Co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, to discuss a range of topics from the Leuthold report, international diversification, T-bills, shareholder yield, to forecasting returns and diversification. This episode provides valuable insights into different aspects of investing, making it a must-listen for anyone interested in the financial markets. Topics Discussed • Insights from the Leuthold report and its importance for quant investors • The importance of international diversification and its performance over the years • Discussion on T-bills and the impact of bonds on the market • Exploration of the concept of shareholder yield and its evolution over time • The importance of systematic decision-making in investments • The impact of forecasting returns on investment decisions • The significance of diversification in investments This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the intricacies of investing, providing valuable insights and strategies to navigate the uncertain financial landscape and better understand the complexities of financial markets. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, December 08, 2023
William Santor: Investment Opportunities in Film Financing, Content Streaming & Augmented Reality
In this episode, the ReSolve team sits down with William Santor, a seasoned financier and producer. They delve into a variety of topics, from Santor's unexpected journey from ballroom dancing to finance, to his innovative approach to the film industry, and the role of AI in content discovery. Topics Discussed • William Santor's unique journey from professional ballroom dancing to finance and how this shaped his approach to finding 'the inches' in financial services • The exploration of the film industry as an investment opportunity, with a deep dive into the financial structures, government rebates, and interim financing that make it possible • The impact of COVID-19 on film production and how Santor's team navigated the challenges to continue producing films • The role of AI and large language models in content discovery and how they can enhance the user experience by providing personalized recommendations • The concept of 'co-watching' and how it can be leveraged to improve content recommendations and user engagement • The evolution of the film industry with the advent of streaming platforms and the challenges and opportunities this presents for content creators and financiers This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of finance and the film industry, the role of AI in content discovery, and the future of the entertainment industry. With William Santor's unique insights and experiences, listeners will gain a deeper understanding of these complex topics and their implications for the future of content consumption and creation. ReSolve Riffs – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, December 01, 2023
Chris Schindler - The Art of Wealth Creation: Insider Tips from Veteran Portfolio Manager
Investment Mastery: Risk Parity, Portfolio Construction, and Systematic Investment Strategies for the everyday investor. In this video, Rodrigo Gordillo, President & Portfolio Manager of ReSolve Asset Management Global does a review of a 2020 interview with veteran portfolio manager and ex Toronto Teachers Pension Plan Managing Director, Chris Schindler, to add important commentary around the discussion on the principles of asset management, exploring risk parity, portfolio construction and systematic investing strategies. He also adds color around how market dynamics have changed since the initial interview and delves deep to help investors understand the evolution of investment strategies within this evolving economic climate and the necessity of a diversified investment approach over conventional equity-centered portfolios. Also, gain insights into the significance of diversification, the effectiveness of model building, and various investment pitfalls. Learn why bond yields, present discount rates, and currency hedging matter, and get a grip on emerging trends in private equity, alternatives, and other asset classes. This is "ReSolve's Riffs" – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association ("NFA"). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, November 30, 2023
Alfonso Peccatiello - Economic Uncertainty Ahead: Fix Your 60/40 Strategy NOW
In this discussion, the ReSolve team is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, financial analyst, to discuss the current state of the economy, the impact of Biden's stimulus, and the intricacies of investing in the current financial landscape. They delve into a wide range of topics, providing valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of the financial markets. Topics Discussed • The impact of Biden's stimulus on the economy and how it has helped the economic indicators pick up again • The current state of growth, inflation, and the central bank reaction function • The potential impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy and the concept of ‘macro lags’ • The influence of interest rates on the economy and the different scenarios that can occur • The current state of the housing and labor markets in response to rising rates • The interpretation of the recent US GDP print and the consensus on future growth • The importance of surprising markets and investing in assets that benefit from this surprise • The concept of a 'Forever Portfolio' and how to achieve it using ETFs • The importance of sizing in portfolio construction and how to balance attackers and defenders • The role of commodities and the Dollar in a diversified portfolio • The concept of allocating for diversity and the importance of tracking error in portfolio management This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the current state of the economy, the impact of fiscal policies, and the strategies to navigate the uncertain financial landscape. Alfonso Peccatiello provides valuable insights into the intricacies of investing and portfolio construction, making it an enlightening discussion for both new and seasoned investors. This is "ReSolve Riffs" – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and
Tue, November 28, 2023
Secrets of Investment Success: Lessons From 5 Decades of Quant Macro
In this conversation, the ReSolve team is joined by Joe Kelly from Campbell and Company to delve into the world of quantitative investing, managed futures, and derivatives trading. They explore a wide range of topics, including: Topics Discussed • The history and evolution of the hedge fund industry and the growth of systematic investing • The role of derivatives traders in providing liquidity to executives and the creation of a startup to provide liquidity for tech employees • The dynamics of quantitative investing, the importance of systemizing fundamental ideas, and the challenges of explaining complex financial concepts to a non-technical audience • The development and implementation of different models and strategies in quantitative investing, including momentum, quant macro, and short-term • The performance of different strategies during various market conditions and the importance of adaptability • The challenges of scaling in the systematic investing space and the advantages of focusing on a core universe of markets • The trade-off between diversification and control in portfolio construction • The importance of risk management in maintaining a consistent investor experience and the strategies used to manage risk in systematic investing Conclusion This conversation is a must-listen for anyone interested in quantitative investing, managed futures, and derivatives trading. It provides valuable insights into the intricacies of these fields, the strategies used by successful investors, and the importance of risk management in ensuring a consistent investor experience.
Mon, November 06, 2023
Why Your Money is Worthless and What This Expert is Doing About it
In this riveting discussion, we delve into the complexities of the global financial landscape and the potential pitfalls of traditional monetary systems with Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy . We explore the implications of structural inflation, the rise of new monetary technologies like Bitcoin and stablecoins, and the potential future scenarios for developed and emerging economies. Topics Discussed • Discussion on the structural inflation in countries like Egypt and Argentina, and the impact on their currencies • Examination of the role of Bitcoin, stablecoins, and other new technologies in creating a global marketplace for money • Exploration of the potential for money to move across jurisdictions, bypassing traditional banking systems • Insight into the financial firewalls and the increasing porosity due to technologies like Bitcoin • Analysis of the potential problems major currencies like the dollar, euro, and yen might face due to increasing public debt • Discussion on the bubbles and cycles associated with monetary technologies • Consideration of the potential risks and benefits of Bitcoin, including the concentration of wealth and the potential for it to act as a hedge against currency devaluation • Examination of the potential future scenarios for developed and emerging economies in the face of a potential debt and monetary crisis • Discussion on the potential impact of a fiscal reckoning on the asset bubble and consumer spending in developed economies • Insight into potential strategies for managing the risks associated with a potential fiscal reckoning, including investment in bonds, equities, and Bitcoin This episode offers a deep dive into the intricacies of the global financial landscape, providing valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding the potential future scenarios for our monetary systems. It's a must-listen for anyone seeking to navigate the complexities of the financial world and understand why traditional money might be losing its value. <p class="ql-align-justify
Thu, October 26, 2023
Navigate All Market Storms with this Investment Process!
With Bradley Barrie (Co-founder and Chief Investment Officer, Dynamic Wealth Group) and Matt O’Bryon (Investment Analyst, Dynamic Wealth Group) In this episode, our team dives deep into the intricacies of asset classes, correlations, and the importance of diversification in investment portfolios. We discuss the challenges of the traditional 60/40 investment strategy and explore the potential of alternative investment approaches. Topics Discussed • The limitations of diversifying only at the asset class level and the importance of understanding correlations • The challenges faced by investors due to the shifting correlations between stocks and bonds • How high growth, high inflation, low growth, low inflation, and other economic regimes can impact asset correlations • The importance of being prepared for various market conditions and the risks of trying to predict market movements • The goal of creating a smoother return experience for investors by minimizing drawdowns and downside risks • The importance of understanding the risks and potential returns of different asset classes and strategies • The challenges and benefits of implementing alternative investment strategies • The role of benchmarking in investment strategies and the potential pitfalls of focusing too much on relative returns • The importance of narrowing down the range of investment outcomes and eliminating big down years • The nuances of managing risk exposures in portfolios and the importance of being adaptable in different market environments • The potential of alternative investments and strategies in creating diversified portfolios • The importance of understanding and managing the risks associated with different investment strategies This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of asset classes, correlations, and investment strategies. It provides valuable insights into alternative investment approaches and the importance of diversification in achieving smoother return experiences and minimizing downside risks
Wed, October 18, 2023
Blueprint Revealed! Attracting & Managing Money for The Wealthiest 0.1%
In this episode, we delve into the secrets of success and wealth management with our guest Homer Smith, Private Wealth Advisor, Konvergent Wealth Partners . We explore the decisions successful people make, the concept of a virtual family office, and the importance of making good decisions about wealth and taxes. We also discuss the challenges of managing wealth and the benefits of a comprehensive approach to wealth management. Topics Discussed • The mindset and decision-making process of successful people • The concept and benefits of a virtual family office • The importance of making good decisions about wealth and mitigating taxes • The differences in managing ultra wealthy individuals versus those in the median wealth range • The role of taxes in wealth management and the benefits of focusing on tax efficiency • The challenges faced by accountants and lawyers in wealth management and strategies to overcome them • The importance of understanding the intent of wealth management solutions • The role of insurance in wealth management • The benefits of an All-Weather approach to investment and wealth management • The psychological worries of wealthy individuals and how to address them • The importance of focusing on the big picture in wealth management Conclusion This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in wealth management, the psychology of successful people, and the intricacies of managing wealth. It provides valuable insights and strategies to navigate the complex world of wealth management and achieve financial success. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, October 12, 2023
The Greatest Inflation & Bear Market Hedge Nobody’s Heard of
In this episode, Rodrigo Gordillo sits down with David Triplo, Senior Associate, Diversifying Alternatives Research at Mercer , to discuss his journey from poker to prop trading and finally to systematic global macro trading. They delve into the intricacies of the trading industry, the impact of market changes, and the future of the CTA space. Topics Discussed • David Triplo's transition from poker to prop trading and his early experiences in the industry • The challenges and opportunities of trading on the future side and the specifics of cash basis trading • The decision to move from options trading to futures trading and the factors influencing this choice • The impact of market changes on trading strategies and the necessity of adaptation • David Triplo's time at Transmarket Group and the lessons learned from the boom and bust cycle • The shift to the world of CTAs and the differences between prop trades and CTA roles • The evolution of Systematic Global Macro trading and the increasing use of non-price based information in trading strategies • The role of volatility oriented strategies in hedge fund space and the potential for high convexity in a short time period • The benefits of a diversified approach in Systematic Global Macro for the average allocator • The current state of the alternative investment sleeve and the dominance of private equity and hedge funds Conclusion This episode is a deep dive into the world of trading from the perspective of someone who has experienced it all - from poker, to prop trading, to Systematic Global Macro. David Triplo's insights provide valuable lessons for anyone interested in the trading industry, the evolution of trading strategies, and the future of the CTA space. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSo
Tue, October 03, 2023
Michael Robbins: Don’t Trust a Quant Unless…
In this conversation, we delve into the world of quantitative investing, exploring its intricacies, misconceptions, and the common mistakes people make when trying to apply it. The discussion also sheds light on the importance of asking the right questions and setting up the problem correctly in quant investing. Topics Discussed • The common misconception that a single tool or program can solve all problems in quant investing • The importance of setting up the problem correctly and asking the right questions in quant investing • The challenges of communicating complex quant concepts to laypeople or investment professionals without a background in quantitative methods • The role of intuition and experience in quant investing and how they still hold significant value over calculations • The use of quantitative methods in large institutions and the need for human supervision to prevent unusual or excessively risk-taking actions • The impact of back testing and the importance of incorporating experience into it • The discussion on whether machines can completely take over quant investing and the current limitations • The exploration of arbitrage opportunities in quant investing and how they can be exploited by mid-sized banks This conversation is a deep dive into the world of quant investing, offering valuable insights into its complexities, the common pitfalls, and the role of human intuition and experience. It's a must-listen for anyone interested in quantitative investing, providing strategies to navigate this complex field. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, September 28, 2023
Bob Elliott on the Next Big Macro Move – It Will Surprise You!
In this conversation, the ReSolve team is joined by Bob Elliott, a prominent figure in the financial industry, to discuss monetary policy, inflation and the role of central banks. They delve into the complexities of the current economic landscape, addressing the impact of fiscal policy, wage growth, and the role of alpha in investment strategies. • Discussion on the impact of monetary policy on inflation and the consequences of not running a sufficiently tight policy in response to economic shocks • Insights into the inflation dynamic and the risks of long-term elevated inflation • Analysis of the bond market's reaction to Powell's statement and the implications for long-term inflation risks • Exploration of the role of income growth in the current economic cycle and its impact on nominal growth • Discussion on the importance of understanding the behavioral aspects of investment strategies and the concept of balanced alphas • Insight into the potential of alpha indexing tools and how they can be used to create more reliable investment outcomes • Discussion on the ideal weighting of equities, bonds, commodities and alpha in an investment portfolio • Exploration of the concept of a diversified portfolio and how it can improve investment outcomes This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the intricacies of the current economic landscape, monetary policy, and investment strategies. Bob Elliott provides valuable insights into the role of central banks, the impact of fiscal policy and wage growth, and the potential of alpha in investment strategies. This is "ReSolve's Riffs" – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association ("NFA"). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, September 21, 2023
Season Premiere with PJ Pierre on MMT, Macro and Fiscal Dominance
In this episode, PJ Pierre, a leading voice in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), joins the ReSolve team for a deep dive into the complexities and implications of MMT. The conversation explores the role of government in fiscal policy, the impact of deficit spending, and the potential consequences of MMT on the economy. Topics Discussed • The discussion begins with an examination of the conventional belief that government must first collect taxes before spending, and how this view influences perceptions of government solvency and private investment. • The conversation then shifts to the sequence of government spending and taxation, and the implications of a floating exchange system. • PJ Pierre provides an explanation of how the government can issue currency and the potential consequences, such as inflation or a collapse of the currency. • The role of the banking system within the MMT framework is also discussed, highlighting the complexity of this economic model. • The conversation delves into the concept of fiscal dominance and the potential for the Federal Reserve to lose its monetary policy tool for regulation. • The episode concludes with a discussion on the impact of inflation and the role of demographics in economic demand. This episode offers a comprehensive exploration of Modern Monetary Theory, providing valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding the potential implications of MMT on fiscal policy and the economy. PJ Pierre's expertise provides a nuanced perspective on this complex economic model, making this episode a must-listen for those interested in economic theory and policy. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, August 15, 2023
Numera Analytics on the Art and Science of Global Macro Research
In this episode, we dive deep into the world of financial markets and economic models with our guest, Joaquin Kritz Lara from Numera Analytics. We explore the importance of a probabilistic approach, the role of uncertainty, the dynamics of inflation, and much more. • The importance of a probabilistic approach in financial markets and the disregard around uncertainty • The role of economists and their strong beliefs around how the world works • The dynamics of inflation and its impact on financial markets • The importance of acknowledging that you don't know the full truth and adapting priors based on new information • The potential risks and rewards of investing in regional banks • The impact of inflation on the valuation of assets and the potential for downturns in certain sectors • The potential of policy support in China and its impact on the global economy • The potential for growth in India and the challenges it faces • The impact of the dollar on the global economy and the potential for its decline This episode provides a deep dive into the intricacies of financial markets, economic models, and the global economy. It's a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of these topics and gaining valuable insights to navigate the uncertain financial landscape. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, August 01, 2023
Eric Basmajian: Cyclical Drivers and Trends of the US Economy
The ReSolve Team welcomes Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, and Jeff Weniger, a renowned financial analyst. We delve into the current state of the economy, the potential for a recession, and the role of the banking sector in these dynamics. We also discuss the influence of leading, coincidental and lagging indicators in economic cycles. • Introduction to Eric Basmajian and Jeff Weniger, discussing their backgrounds and influences • Discussion on the potential disparity between equity markets and recession indicators • Exploration of Eric's economic framework and its application to current economic indicators • Insights on the role of bank balance sheets in the economic cycle • Discussion on the impact of the commercial real estate crisis on bank lending • Examination of the contraction in bank credit and its implications for economic growth • Debate on the current state of the economy and the potential for a recession • Discussion on the role of leading, coincidental and lagging indicators in predicting economic cycles • Insights on how different sectors of the economy may experience the impacts of a recession at different times • Discussion on the importance of managing risk in the current economic climate Today’s discussion provides valuable insights into the complexities of the current economic landscape and the potential for a recession. Detailed analysis from Eric Basmajian and Jeff Weniger provides a deeper understanding of the factors influencing the economy and how to navigate these challenging times. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor
Thu, July 27, 2023
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on the US Economy, the Fed and Implications for Risk Assets
In this episode, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut shares her journey from working in large organizations such as the IMF and the New York Fed to her current role in a startup called Macro Hive. She discusses the culture of meritocracy, openness to ideas, and learning from mistakes that defines Macro Hive, and how it differs from her previous experiences. Topics Discussed • Insight into the culture of meritocracy at Macro Hive and the value of diverse opinions and contributions • Comparison of policy enactment in the US and Europe, with a focus on the influence of cultural undertones • Discussion on the current financial landscape, with strong growth, high but stable inflation and a dovish Fed • Analysis of the impact of lower energy prices on household income, manufacturing and services • Examination of the US fiscal proflicacy and its implication • Discussion on the correlation between energy prices and non-energy inflation • Insights into the Fed's focus on the employment leg of the mandate and its disregard for the inflation leg • Discussion on the potential for a financial crisis due to high levels of debt and the possibility of the Fed tightening prudential rules • Discussion on the potential impact of China's economic situation and the US banking sector crisis on the global economy • Predictions for the future, including the possibility of higher inflation and financial volatility This episode provides a deep dive into the complexities of the current financial landscape, the potential risks, and predictions for the future. It's a must-listen for anyone interested in gaining a nuanced understanding of the economic dynamics at play and the potential implications for the future. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, June 28, 2023
Parsing Powell with Danielle DiMartino Booth
In this comprehensive episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research, joins the discussion to tackle various topics surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership, monetary policy and the current economic challenges. Key themes covered include: • Jay Powell's leadership and controversies within the Federal Reserve Board • The impact of monetary policies on Wall Street, mortgage rates and unregulated loans, with insights into Powell's motivations and challenges • The multifaceted consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and potential implications on inflation • The role of central clearing, systemic risk, and technology on the financial market • Explorations into credit easing, inflation battles, and the influence of monetary policy in the treasury market • The Fed's impact on commercial real estate, credit, and the treasury market, along with insights on housing resilience • A deep dive into inflation, quantitative tightening, and how economic indicators affect the treasury market • Discussions on Powell's experiences, interest rate considerations and the influence of fiscal policies on treasury markets and financial engineering • Assessments on data releases, regional banking challenges and wider implications of low-interest rates on the economy • The Fed's interest rate strategies, credit market signals, future of financial regulations and the overall economic outlook This information-packed episode is a must-listen for those keen on understanding the complexities of the Federal Reserve, monetary policy and the evolving economic landscape. Gain valuable insights and expert opinions on how to navigate through these challenging times. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Sat, June 17, 2023
Risk Mitigating Strategies - A Deep Dive with Jason Josephiac and Ryan Lobdell
Meketa’s Jason J. Josephiac, Senior Vice President / Research Consultant, and Ryan Lobdell, Managing Principal / Consultant, joined Adam and Rod to discuss their new white paper. They discuss key strategies and insights for managing risk and allocating assets in today's challenging investment environment, covering a wide range of topics, such as: • The importance of comprehensive risk management and portfolio allocation strategies in diversifying investments • Innovative Investment approaches and trends in risk mitigation, particularly as they relate to endowment and LDI models • Balancing risk and return in investment portfolios through diversification and manager selection • Asset allocation techniques for maximizing returns while maintaining liquidity and capital efficiency • Manager selection and risk mitigation strategies in diverse investment environments, highlighting leverage and portable alpha • Optimizing the selection and allocation of private investments to achieve a more efficient and effective portfolio • Diversification and risk mitigation strategies for endowment portfolios, focusing on achieving a balanced allocation • Navigating inflation, risk management, and alternative investment strategies in 2021-2022 with insights from experienced consultants • Creating balanced portfolios and implementing effective risk management strategies, featuring diverse investment approaches • The role of real estate, private markets, and evolving asset allocation ideas in navigating economic uncertainties This comprehensive resource is a must-read for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of risk management and asset allocation in today's challenging investment landscape. Get expert insights on diversification, portfolio management, manager selection, and risk mitigation strategies to optimize your investment outcomes. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, June 15, 2023
Darius Dale Riffs on Market Dynamics, Economic Cycles & Investment Strategies
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Darius Dale, Founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to discuss the importance of macro indicators and strategies for navigating uncertain times in the financial markets. He covers a vast array of topics, including: • The role of macro indicators in understanding market cycles and making informed investment decisions • The Weather model as a risk management tool, focusing on 10 principal components of macro • The impact of institutional investors on Bitcoin's future and the potential for significant value increase • The complexities of the dollar outlook and the factors influencing its performance • The rising probability of a risk-off event and the importance of monitoring cross asset correction risk indicators • The challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing inflation and the implications for the bond market and employment mandate This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in macro indicators, market cycles, and strategies for navigating uncertain financial times. Gain valuable insights and tactics to better understand the complexities of the financial landscape and make well-informed investment decisions. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association ("NFA"). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, June 14, 2023
ReSolve Riffs with Alfonso Peccatiello (aka MacroAlf): Liquidity and the Global Macro Landscape
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, a macro strategist and the creator of the popular Twitter account @MacroAlf, to discuss liquidity, the global macro landscape, and the implications for investors. We delve into various topics, including • The impact of demographics and debt on economic growth and the challenges faced by countries in maintaining living standards •The significance of the Global Liquidity Index in understanding rapid changes in equity market behavior •The orthogonal approach to the traditional All Weather framework, focusing on credit-oriented growth measures and policymaker stances on inflation •The Forever Portfolio allocation and the importance of adjusting it using macro analysis to apply tilts based on the current macro cycle •The labor market dynamics reflecting a bifurcation due to the lag in the dispersion of the $5 trillion capital injection into the economy •The potential impact of US fiscal deficits on nominal growth over the next decade, influenced by demographics, private sector leverage, and productivity growth This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, May 31, 2023
ReSolve Riffs with Doomberg on Peeling the Layers and Unpacking the Facts Behind Headlines
In this episode, the Doomberg team explores the complexities of energy policy, market dynamics, and innovative solutions for a decarbonized and sustainable future. The discussion covers a range of topics, including: • Balancing passion, authenticity, and market strategies in business, writing, and investing • The pros and cons of various energy solutions, such as solar, nuclear, and alternative energy sources • Evaluating the political context of energy policies and the role of government in shaping the future of global energy • The impact of innovations in battery storage and fusion on the future of nuclear power and decarbonization • Germany's experience with energy policy and the implications of deindustrialization • The importance of risk management and waste disposal in the nuclear energy sector • China's influence on the global solar industry and the need for a domestic supply chain in the United States • Overcoming challenges with limited resources, optimism, and innovation • The power of rational, polite debate, and the role of authentic, data-driven content in the Doomberg brand This episode offers invaluable insights for anyone interested in energy policy, renewable energy sources, and sustainable economic growth. The Doomberg team's in-depth analysis and thought-provoking debates will help listeners navigate the complexities of today's energy landscape and engage with the critical decisions shaping the future of global energy. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, May 24, 2023
ReSolveRiffs with Michael Howell on Liquidity & its Multi-Dimensional Impacts on Markets and the Economy
In this comprehensive exploration of global liquidity, Michael Howell shares his expertise and insights on a range of critical topics affecting financial markets, economies, and investment opportunities. Throughout the discussion, the following themes are explored: •Central bank policies, inflation, and market liquidity: Global perspectives and challenges • Monetary policy, government spending and inflation: Impacts on the global economy and investment • Global liquidity, monetary inflation, and central bank balance sheets: Evolving dynamics and effects • Quantitative easing, liquidity, and the US Dollar: Challenges and implications for policymakers • Government spending, inflation and global money flows: Impacts on currency and financial markets • Central bank strategies, inflation and liquidity: Managing growth in a debt-ridden economy • Government fiscal policies, liquidity and debt management: Global perspectives and impacts • US dollar dominance, global liquidity and market implications: Exploring currency and capital • Interest rates, quantitative easing and global liquidity: Investment strategies and economic effects This intensive examination of global liquidity is ideal for anyone interested in understanding the complexities and impacts of liquidity on financial markets, economies and investment decisions. Don't miss out on these valuable insights and analyses to help you stay informed and adaptable in today's constantly changing financial landscape. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, May 17, 2023
RSBT – Return Stacked™ Bonds & Managed Futures ETF
In this episode, Corey Hoffstein, CIO of Newfound Research, Rodrigo Gordillo, President of ReSolve Global* and Adam Butler, CIO of ReSolve Global, delve into the concept of return stacking and introduce the innovative RSBT Return Stacked™ Bonds & Managed Futures ETF. This podcast is essential for investors, financial advisors, and anyone interested in learning more about return stacking, the RSBT ETF, and the potential benefits of combining bonds and managed futures for portfolio diversification and risk management. Don't miss out on this insightful conversation to deepen your understanding of these innovative investment strategies and their potential impact on today's complex financial markets. They cover a wide range of topics, including: The motivation behind the return stacking concept and its relevance in today's market environment The history of institutional leverage and diversification in retail portfolios The advantages of using return stacked strategies for portfolio construction and risk management The role of bonds and managed futures in building a robust, diversified investment portfolio The importance of low correlation between asset classes for effective diversification The mechanics of combining bond exposure with a managed futures overlay in the RSBT ETF, including the use of cash collateral and Treasury Futures The benefits of using ETFs as capital-efficient building blocks for return stacking The potential for a family of return stacked ETF products to address various investor needs and preferences The significance of managed futures as a "third leg of the stool" for managing inflation and mitigating market risks The challenges and opportunities related to implementing managed futures strategies and managing leverage in retail portfolios The goal of matching the RSBT ETF's bond strategy to core US fixed income, such as the Bloomberg US Core Aggregate Bond Index, and adjusting duration accordingly *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority. Definitions: Long/Short, Beta Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and do not have fees. One cannot invest directly in an index. For a full list of holdings, click here . Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Return StackedTM Bonds & Managed Futures ETF. This and other important information about the ETF is c
Wed, May 10, 2023
ReSolve Riffs with Julian Brigden on Peak Dollar, Slowing Inflation and Economic Landing
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Julian Brigden, Co-Founder & President of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, to discuss his outlook on the current macroeconomic landscape, focusing on the secular USD trend and its impact on global markets. We cover a wide range of topics, including: • The ongoing debate between inflation and deflation, and the potential consequences of each • The role of central banks in driving market liquidity and asset prices, and the implications for investors • The possibility of an impending recession driven by tightening credit, inventory cycles, and housing market adjustments • Central banks' ability to foresee economic changes and their willingness to act on them • The mixed signals and challenges of investing in a market dominated by big tech and its impact on diversification • The potential for a currency-driven shift in market dynamics, with a focus on the US dollar • The importance of asset allocation and risk management in navigating an uncertain market environment • The impact of behavioral biases on decision-making and portfolio management • The potential benefits and risks of systematic investment strategies in the current market context · Julian's thoughts on future trends and potential market opportunities, particularly in the macro space This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in macroeconomic trends, currency markets, and the challenges of investing in today's complex and uncertain environment, offering valuable insights and strategies to navigate these intricate markets. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick, and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Managem
Tue, May 02, 2023
ReSolve Riffs with Roni Israelov on Advanced Portfolio Strategies for Tax Efficiency, Credit Exposure, and Cash Flow Goals
In this episode, the ReSolve team welcomes Roni Israelov, Chief Investment Officer and President of NDVR, to discuss advanced portfolio strategies for optimizing tax efficiency, credit exposure, and cash flow objectives. We explore a wide range of topics, including: Roni's background and experience in asset management, including his time at AQR Capital Management and Lehman Brothers The importance of portfolio construction and implementation in achieving investment goals The challenges and opportunities in managing custom lifestyle-protected growth portfolios The role of research and model building in informing and optimizing investment strategies The impact of transaction costs and factor decay profiles on portfolio performance The benefits and risks of incorporating short-term signals within long-term investment models, and using short-term models to adjust overall trading Lessons learned from building and managing option strategies focused on harvesting volatility risk premiums The role of investor psychology and behavioral biases in decision-making and portfolio management The importance of diversification and risk management in navigating uncertain markets The complexity of characterizing individual investors' utility functions and the need for custom portfolios to best satisfy unique objectives Future trends and potential opportunities in the wealth optimization space This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in advanced portfolio strategies, tax efficiency, credit exposure, and cash flow goals, providing valuable insights and practical advice for navigating complex financial markets and achieving lasting success in the world of investing. This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association ("NFA"). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, April 19, 2023
ReSolve Riffs with Vlad Aldea & Ross Fortune on Arbing the Electricity Markets
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Vlad Aldea and Ross Fortune from ATNV Energy LP for an insightful conversation exploring the intricacies of the electricity markets, and how their careers led to the creation of ATNV Energy. During the episode, Vlad and Ross cover a wide range of topics related to electricity markets, including: • The similarities and key differences between electricity markets and other energy commodities like natural gas and oil • The importance of a strong foundation in understanding the physical grid, including generation, load, and transmission aspects • The concept of load hedging and its relevance in the electricity market • The role of Independent System Operators (ISOs) in managing regional grids in the United States • The significance of financial transmission rights (FTRs) and their role in the electricity market • The increasing impact of storage technologies like hydro storage, pumped storage, and batteries on the electricity market • The fungibility of electrons and the accounting abstractions used in electricity markets • The challenges and opportunities in analyzing and trading within the electricity market • The evolution of ATNV Energy and its focus on transmission analysis and financial trading in the electricity market • The importance of adaptability, risk management, and collaboration in the ever-changing landscape of electricity markets • The critical role of transmission in the electricity markets and its impact on the grid’s reliability and accounting This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complex world of electricity markets, providing valuable insights and strategies to navigate this unique and rapidly evolving sector. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, April 11, 2023
ReSolve Riffs: Oliver Rust of Truflation on Real-time Inflation Forecasting with Blockchain & Oracles
In this episode, the ReSolve team talks with Oliver Rust, Head of Product at Truflation , a blockchain-based project that aims to provide real-time inflation forecasting. We discuss a range of topics, including: The current challenges in measuring inflation and the potential benefits of utilizing blockchain technology in inflation forecasting An introduction to Truflation and its mission to provide more accurate, real-time inflation data How decentralized oracles can help improve the accuracy and reliability of inflation forecasting The potential impact of recent central bank actions on inflation and the global economy Jerome Powell's tough position as the head of the Federal Reserve and his focus on his legacy The complexity of managing inflation, employment, and financial stability simultaneously The role of the Fed and the government in supporting local and regional banks during turbulent economic times The importance of new inflation measurement tools like Truflation in helping investors make better allocation decisions The long-term implications of current economic policies on inflation and financial markets How to get involved with and follow the developments of Truflation and its data This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of inflation management, the potential benefits of blockchain technology in forecasting, and the role of central banks in a rapidly changing global economy. Discover insights and strategies to navigate these intricate markets and stay informed on the latest developments in real-time inflation forecasting. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, April 04, 2023
ReSolve Riffs on Swiss Banking and Capital Structure Debacle with Brian Moriarty and Dave Nadig
In this episode, the ReSolve team is joined by Brian Moriarty, Associate Director of Fixed Income at Morningstar Research Services, and Dave Nadig, Chief Futurist at VettaFi Financial, to discuss the recent demise of Credit Suisse and the complexities of capital structure in banks. They explore various topics, including: • The persistent overweight of fixed-income mutual funds in financials, and in particular, banks • The impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the capital structure of banks and the regulations put in place • The fertile hunting ground for active managers in the complex capital structure of banks • The Credit Suisse trade setup and its implications for fixed-income portfolios • A comparison of capital structures between regulated banks and traditional US corporates • The unique contractual clauses and outcomes of European and US preferred shares, specifically contingent convertible bonds (Cocos) and Tier 1 capital (AT1) • The nuances between Swiss a
Wed, March 29, 2023
ReSolve Riffs on the Emotional Rollercoaster of Trend Following
In this episode, the ReSolve team delves deep into the challenges and emotional rollercoaster associated with trend following amid an uncertain market environment. They discuss an array of topics, including: • The impact of Jerome Powell's recent statement on interest rates and its implications for market participants • The role of central bank policies on systematic investment strategies • The lack of clear trends, economic trajectories, and market signals in today's financial landscape • The importance of maintaining small positions and staying prudent in turbulent times • Potential shifts in the market and what investors should watch for • The role of investor psychology in trend following and how to manage emotions during market turbulence • The importance of diversification and its benefits in navigating uncertain markets • The effects of market noise on trend following strategies and how to filter relevant information • The potential benefits and risks of leveraging systematic signals in the current market environment • The role of risk management and position sizing in trend following strategies • The impact of behavioral biases on decision-making and portfolio management • The team's thoughts on future trends and potential market opportunities This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in trend following, market volatility, and the challenges of investing in today's uncertain environment, providing valuable insights and strategies to navigate these complex markets. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, March 15, 2023
ReSolve Riffs on How to Replicate Trend Following Managed Futures
In this episode, Adam, Rod and Mike review a new whitepaper called Peering Around Corners: How to Replicate Trend Following Managed Futures. They cover the motivation, methods, analysis and conclusions including: · why managed futures produce strong returns · the role of managed futures in a stock / bond portfolio · why every strategy is vulnerable to lost decades, and the role of diversification · why investors probably shouldn’t be worried about flows to managed futures · why replication does not negate the presence of manager alpha · how replication is related to returns based style analysis · how other authors replicated Buffet’s alpha and how it relates · why one might want to replicate a managed futures index · choice of simple vs complex replication methods · top down replication methods - pros and cons · bottom up replication methods - pros and cons · why top down and bottom up replication complement each other’s strengths and weaknesses · how well a combination of top down and bottom up replicates the trend following index · why investors might expect to achieve fee alpha from managed futures replication <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style= "text-ali
Mon, March 13, 2023
ReSolve Riffs on Timeless Investment Wisdom and 2022
In this episode, Adam, Rod, Mike and Richard review the topics covered in the ReSolve Masterclass podcast series and offer context and updates in response to the 2022 investment experience. Specifically, they cover: • Why asset allocation is more important than security selection • How diversifying globally can help to reduce risk • How to triangulate on the outcome of asset classes by drawing from multiple perspectives and sources of information • How to think about long-lived assets and how that changes your mindset when you're thinking about investments • How to steward long-lived wealth and make decisions based on preparation rather than prediction • How to balance and rebalance a portfolio • How to think about alpha and tail protection • How to put it all together in an investment framework • How to analyze investment performance over different economic cycles and regimes • How to use a systematic process to select the group of assets and the weights of those assets and how often to rebalance them in a portfolio • How to use systematic investing to analyze investment performance over many decades and different economic cycles and regimes · And much more… This update of the ReSolve Masterclass series is essential listening for anyone who wondered how the concepts and methods held up in an inflationary environment and is curious about what to expect going forward. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operat
Fri, March 03, 2023
ReSolve Riffs with Jerry Parker on Diversification, Outlier Hunting, and Loose Pants
In this episode, our guest Jerry Parker, founder and CEO of Chesapeake Capital, a global systematic trend-following investment manager, shares his insights on: His journey from being a student of legendary trader Richard Dennis to running his own trend-following fund The importance of sticking to a disciplined process despite market noise Why trend following is the ultimate solution for diversifying portfolios How to navigate compliance hurdles and get exposure to trend following strategies The potential benefits of maximizing convexity in a portfolio How to create the perfect standalone portfolio that doesn't rely on passive indexes The role of education versus pain and reward in motivating change and decision-making Jerry's approach to risk management and how it can lead to both serious strategies and potential profits The vast potential of ETFs in providing access to more markets And so much more This is a fascinating and informative episode for anyone interested in trend following, portfolio diversification, and risk management in today's markets. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through t
Thu, February 23, 2023
ReSolve Riffs with Jeremy Schwartz on Inflation, Fed Policy & Factor Positioning for the Current Environment
Our guest this week was Jeremy Schwartz, Global CIO of WisdomTree ETFs, a global ETF manager with over $70 billion in AUM. Our conversation covered: Why it is important to consider refinancing your house at a lower interest rate and to move your excess cash to higher-yielding accounts How managing your savings has become more crucial in the current low interest rate environment Why your checking account is costing you money and what you can do to avoid it How the recent surge in money supply and inflationary pressures may impact the economy and investments Why there is still a structural shift in the labor market and how it could affect real wages How the divergence between equities and rates markets may impact investors and the Fed's policies Why it is important to diversify your equity portfolio with lower duration, higher quality and lower valuation companies How alternatives and inflation hedges can play a significant role in asset allocation and provide return stacking opportunities Why commodities can be a useful diversifier to stocks and bonds, particularly in an inflationary environment How passive commodity exposure can act as a direct hedge against inflationary environments and provide balance to a portfolio Why investors should consider a stock-bond capital efficient portfolio, and how does it work? Why is a leveraged 60-40 portfolio a good combination for taxable investors, and why did WisdomTree choose equity underlying and futures on top of it for a leveraged 60-40 position How investors can outperform cash with a third of the portfolio that is available for investment in diversifiers, and what are some examples of diversifiers How adding managed futures to a stock-bond portfolio provides diversification and protection during inflationary shocks What companies are under the hood of an AI portfolio, and how are they selected And much more. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, February 09, 2023
GestaltU with Alonso Gonzalez on Abundance: Unlocking Humanity's Unlimited Energy Potential
Adam and Rodrigo had the opportunity to chat with engineer and business owner Alonso Gonzalez about his upcoming book, and in particular his research on the transition from a dirty, inefficient fossil fuel economy predicated on scarce energy to a new energy economy founded on effectively infinite, distributed clean energy from the sun. Alonso shared a presentation that introduced a variety of novel concepts and assertions that makes a compelling case for a complete overhaul of earth’s energy sources and infrastructure, much of which will be quite noticeable and impactful within the next five to seven years. Topics covered include: Impacts of the exponential age of knowledge Megatrends of energy abundance and digitization Uncertainty as the source of anxiety From linear to exponential growth and how the past is no longer useful in understanding the future Difference between innovation and disruption and the phases and timeline of disruption Understanding general terms about energy Understanding current energy production and consumption Visualizing a chronological road map of the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy in the near future Consequences of energy abundance We hope you enjoy our conversation with Alonso Gonzalez! Hosted by Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, February 01, 2023
ReSolve Riffs: Andy Constan on Hard vs. Soft Landing, Fed Reaction Function & Higherer for Longerer
This week we welcomed back Andy Constan (CEO / CIO of Damped Spring Advisors) and thought-provoking commentator on financial markets. His deep understanding of the global macro landscape and structure of markets, as always, made for a fascinating conversation that covered: A disciple of two completely different and complimentary schools of global macro excellence Navigating his portfolio in 2022 through the Twitter looking glass Listening between the lines and hearing the drumbeat of quantitative tightening (QT) early on In the old days, understanding inflation and growth was enough for capital allocation The game is now mostly about policymakers’ toolkit, stimuli, and their impact on flows The driving force of equity derivatives and their huge impact in the second half of last year Under normal circumstances, commercial banks account for the lion’s share of money creation and liquidity Issuance, roll-offs, and duration management – the mechanics behind the Fed’s balance sheet Credit and leverage as a function of banks’ ability and willingness to expand their own balance sheets The role of duration in the Fed’s balance sheet activity Why Japan, the original QE trailblazer, was ineffective in its efforts to support asset prices for many years Compression of risk premia, asset inflation, and a weak transmission mechanism towards wealth effects and increased consumption Valuation multiples as the inverse of risk premia Multiples expansion as the primary mechanism for QE-driven asset bubbles Debt monetization as the medium-term bogey on the radar How the Fed relinquished control of QT duration to the Treasury And so much more This is “ReSolve Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, January 24, 2023
David Cervantes of Pinebrook on the Increasing Importance of Political Economy
Our guest this week was David Cervantes, founder of Pine Brook Capital Management. With a rich and diverse background within the investment industry, in the last few years David has dedicated his time to managing his family office and has been developing a macroeconomic framework that considers the objectives and incentives of policymakers as the primary economic drivers. Our conversation included topics such as: Empirical economic analyses and insights from the ‘school of hard knocks’ Fundamentally, a process of elimination – determining first what not to do Less theory, more data Where his approach materially diverges from traditional economics Cognitive Perspective – treating models with respect, but never reverence Macroeconomics is basically ‘political economy in drag’ A dynamic process of incentives and decisions made by political actors The role of ‘timing luck’ (or misfortune) A stroll down history lane – from WWII and the Great Society to the present A closer look at the gargantuan US federal budget deficit Current backdrop – an ‘inflationary supernova’ fueled by fiscal impulse The Fed’s current reaction function Home prices, OER and how they affect CPI Why interest rate volatility matters significantly more than absolute levels How interest rate vol spills over into the risk premia continuum And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Mon, January 16, 2023
ReSolve Riffs with Bob Elliott on Hedge Fund Replication and Strategies for a Complicated Decade
This week we had the pleasure of speaking with Bob Elliot (who can be found on Twitter @BobEUnlimited), CIO at Unlimited, a new investment firm that launched a hedge fund replication strategy in ETF format. Our conversation included: Bob’s career and especially his years at Bridgewater Associates The synergies between macro research and systematic investing Systems that create discipline and leverage (the non-financial kind) A better sense-making process within an investment framework Why most intuitions are inaccurate Identifying inconsistencies between one’s framework and new data How the signaling power and precision of any variable can change over time Dealing with the scarcity of macro data points within a systematic approach Why there is no such thing as a single most important variable in macro investing No certainty, just a probabilistic range of outcomes Why diversification is one of the fundamental laws of asset management The importance of maximizing the number of independent bets in low signal-to-noise domains Why the starting point for Bob’s personal portfolio is Risk Parity The folly of singularly focusing on the S&P500 Avoid going “all-in” into any single scenario, no matter how compelling the narrative And so much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Mon, January 09, 2023
Prometheus Research: Navigating a Potential 2023 Global Recession
For the opening episode of the new year we had the pleasure of speaking with Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Research , which seeks to democratize access to elite financial research to the general public. This great conversation covered several topics, including: A macro framework focused on the interplay between the real and financial economies, and the business cycle The main driving forces in markets and the economy: growth, inflation and liquidity Key variables for measuring liquidity Creating the condition for potential asymmetric returns How the increase in the stock of assets facilitates other activities The original aim of quantitative easing The contest between the ‘Dot Plot’ and the yield curve The signaling mechanism of price levels The biases and shortcomings of the CPI Cyclical vs secular inflation How economies have evolved in the last few decades Why inflation volatility may be asymmetric The false diversification of the 60/40 Why increased uncertainty usually signals a turning point Updating priors – a ‘burden of evidence’ approach Fluctuating edges and the challenges of volatility targeting And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, December 23, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with ReSolve’s own Dr Andrew Butler on Integrating Prediction with Optimization
Our guest this week was Dr. Andrew Butler, Chief Investment Officer here at ReSolve. He has an Honors B.Sc. in Applied Mathematics & Physics from Memorial University, an M.A. in Applied Mathematics & Statistics, Financial Engineering from York University, and a PhD from the University of Toronto, Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering. Our conversation covered: Mentors, studying optimization, machine learning and emulating similarities Comparing methodologies used in calculating oil reserves, with empirical finance Mathematics, known truths, soft axioms and assumptions Data science, tools and hypothesis tests in finance Comparing the definitions of “ noise ” and different scientific methods Regression types, relationships and features Existing models vs creating models with data Hyperparameters, universes, good decision-making and edges The fallacy of “ The Efficient Frontier” in Modern Portfolio Theory Methods that make for good choices, and setting expectations Neural Networks, financial data extraction and optimization science Building complex models, integrating and optimizing predictions, and making decisions Counterintuitive predictions and “ explainability” – integrated vs optimized models Optimizing for decision accuracy by minimizing prediction error Using Decision Trees , Ensembles and Boosting Market data and making predictions using de-coupled vs integrated approaches Training models and optimizing, going forward Optimal covariance shrinkage and minimizing error Constrained vs unconstrained mean variance portfolios, de-coupled vs integrated, in a managed futures context The effect of constraints in limiting models from being “ different ” The practical takeaways about integrated solutions for Advisors and Portfolio Managers The value of humility in optimizing for financial markets – knowledge, wisdom and experience Stochastic dominance vs t-tests Time horizons – size matters The Consultant Industry – monthly data vs understanding process And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a reg
Wed, December 14, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Vincent Deluard on Sources of Persistent Inflation and Higher for Longer.
Our guest this week was Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at Stonex. StoneX (formerly known as INTL FCStone) is an institutional-grade financial services network that connects companies, organizations, traders and investors to the global markets ecosystem through a unique blend of digital platforms, end-to-end clearing and execution services, high-touch service and deep expertise. Our conversation covered: Comparing the narratives from other allocators Is the Fed Pivot here now and will there be a soft landing The rise of structural inflation since before COVID and where will it settle Why the Fed is attempting to show that it “ tried ” Underestimating the strength of the economy Accepting that Growth, Austerity or Inflation are the solutions How China saved the Fed Bubbles of Bubbles and Ponzi schemes vs fundamentally driven growth Shifting from monetary to fiscal dominance The effects of automation on labor requirements Irrational American optimism vs European pessimism Political influences on monetary policy and the challenges of “onshoring” Adjusting the price, not the quantity The effects of the rates of change The possibility of equities and bonds returning to normal correlations Pension funds, interest rates, central banks and commodities The importance of diversified portfolios with sophisticated hedges And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, December 08, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Bradley Barrie on Embracing Alts and Adapting to a New Market Regime
Our guest this week was Bradley Barrie, president and CEO of Dynamic Alpha Solution , a firm that is reshaping the way US advisors think about asset allocation through their multi-dimensional framework. Our conversation covered: His early career and almost becoming a math teacher Embracing difference and uniqueness from the very beginning The barren landscape for alternative strategies in the 1990s Style drift and closet indexers False diversification Defining Multi-Dimensional Asset Allocation Structural diversification and pairing complimentary styles Outsourced CIO tailored for financial advisors Recognizing the importance of investor psychology Smoothing out the path for portfolios as the ultimate objective The three Ps of qualitative analysis Sharpe vs Sortino And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, November 29, 2022
GestaltU with Alfonso Peccatiello on the Timing and Magnitude of Recession
Alfonso – also known as MacroAlf – joined Adam and Mike to discuss his most recent report entitled “Yes, But When Recession?” Our conversation covered: Alf’s experience managing a $20B multi-asset book at a global bank Experience launching an independent macro newsletter for greater freedom of views Benefits of interacting with central bankers, regulators and senior officials at the bank Currently focused on recession – when and how bad will it be? Economic, social and market impacts of recessions How recession might change the Fed’s reaction function Powell and other central bankers questioning the benefits of QE and whether Fed may have a different reaction function this time Exploring the pros and cons of QE Why banks lend, and why they didn’t want to lend over the past decade of QE? Powell’s focus on Volcker and implications for policy trajectory Expectations for a second leg down and the 2000 – 2002 analog What happens in bear markets after Fed pivots? Prospects for a longer, grinding bear market Impact of high returns on cash competing with low returns on real estate and other risk assets Character of stock market bottoms in a cyclical downturn Market indicators of recession and inflation risk using Alf’s Volatility Adjusted Market Dashboard Negative credit impulse signaling recession in Q2 2023 Impact of rate of change vs level of credit given enormous surge in bank reserves in 2020 Leading indicators suggesting recession in late Q2 2023 Housing market and Sahm Rule implying recession in Q2 2023 Expectations for returns on stocks, bonds and other assets over the next several years *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, November 23, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Mark Yusko on FTX, Responsible Crypto Innovation and the Future of Finance
Our guest this week was Mark Yusko, founder, chief investment officer and managing director of Morgan Creek Capital Management. With deep experience in both digital assets and traditional finance, Mark took us on a rollercoaster as we dissected the recent turmoil affecting the ‘crypto-verse’. Topics included: A post-mortem of the FTX debacle – an evolving situation with many missing pieces The sequence of events that led to the debacle Why Mark passed on the opportunity to invest… three times Useful idiots? Conspiracy theories versus actual conspiracies You can’t ban a decentralized system, but you ‘assassinate its character’ The due diligence failure of high-profile capital allocators Fiduciary responsibility gone awry Parallels with other frauds and characters An analogy between digital assets and the Eurodollar system Bitcoin as the base layer of a future monetary system Displacing trust with truth Innovation – why timing is key Exciting ventures and projects for the coming years With every investment we get richer or wiser… never both And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Mon, November 14, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Mark Rzepczynski on Trend, Alternative Diversifiers, and Manager Selection
It was our great privilege to welcome Mark Rzepczynski this week. Mark has over 25 years of experience in financial markets, is a former finance professor and writes frequently about global markets and quantitative investing. Our conversation covered: His early years, ‘forged in the chaos of the trading pits’ Pursuing a PhD and recognizing a career in research was not for him Working for John Henry – an apprenticeship in trend following Finding one’s comparative advantage and sticking to it Why trend following had a bad reputation when the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) was still regarded as the law of the land Trend following as the first derivative of the EMH Understanding how markets actually behave, as opposed to how they should Prices are primal Uncertainty as the gap between what you don’t know and what you should know The interplay between price action and narrative Specialists can be tremendously myopic, while trend followers seek to be the ultimate, rules-based generalists Black Box vs Glass Box Trend following as a signal to noise problem The dirty secret of trend-following – when most of the money is actually made And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Mon, November 07, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Mike Green on the Visible Hand, a Passive Singularity, and Pivoting to Optimism
We have been eagerly waiting for this one for a while! Our friend Mike Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, returned to the podcast this week. Always thought-provoking, Mike journeyed with us through a wide range of topics that included: Why the enthusiasm for central bank intervention is so asymmetric Options trading and the wild swings in Zero Days to Expiration Options (0DTE) Statistical anomalies in the labor market The primary drivers of inflation in the 1970s A comparison between Volcker and Powell Monetary policy as a blunt tool and powerful opioid – numbing investors and delaying reforms Tax arbitrage by big corporations and why they must end A path to political moderation in the US Why tighter monetary policy may be the wrong policy right now A criticism of the Fed – authority, legitimacy, and reach Reasons for underinvestment in US energy production Why the capital allocation process in the US economy is largely broken An update on the recent dynamics of passive investment vehicles Home ownership, nimbyism, and affordability The importance of the Minsky Framework for the current environment “If you’re not doing macro, macro is doing you” And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, November 01, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Cem Karsan on Regime Change and Strategies to Navigate an Inflationary Decade
It was our great pleasure to welcome back Cem Karsan (also known as @jam_croissant on Twitter), Founder and Sr. Managing Partner at Kai Volatility Advisors. This deeply insightful conversation included topics such as: A recap of the last few months in equity markets Volume-weighted time and why seasonality matters more than most people know The acceleration of gamma, vanna and charm – a dangerous time to be short equities Dealer positioning as a major gravitational force in markets, often overlooked The ‘game of chicken’ played between speculators, hedgers and market makers Less ‘put hedging’ begets the currently very low skew observed Why the first and last two weeks of a year are so important The large impact of retail speculative activity and challenges to market makers Households still sitting on very large excess savings, which is often making its way into equity markets Buy the dip – investors’ conditioning over the last 40 years The risk of another lost decade for equity investors Millennials vs Boomers – a generational tussle Why the American dream has become increasingly unattainable to most And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, October 26, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Darius Dale @42Macro - Catching up with Global Assets and Economic Conditions
Our guest this week was Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm focused on macroeconomics. Our conversation covered topics including: How higher inflation leads to higher inflation volatility and increased risk premia The core drivers of inflation and where the data currently points Complacency followed by overshooting – the central bank dichotomy Don’t count on a pivot anytime soon – why Powell is determined to “break things” An uncomfortable trade-off – under inflation, central banks can have price or financial stability, not both Signs the US economy is still firing on all cylinders Strong balance sheets and perhaps the strongest labor market in living memory Why cash has once again taken the throne The demise of the 60/40 portfolio Energy markets dynamics – from geopolitics to ESG Why a structural undersupply of labor reduces the probability of a recession The dysfunctional combination of tighter monetary and looser fiscal policies And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, September 27, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Wade Pfau on Optimal Retirement Strategies
Wade Pfau is Professor of Retirement Income at The American College and has published several books on retirement, most recently The Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating The Important Decisions For Retirement Success. He joined us for an awesome discussion that included: The drawbacks of privatized retirement plans Why longevity pooling is so important Trade-offs between defined benefits and defined contribution plans Varying incentives across countries How different systems can withstand long-term shocks Path dependency, sequence of returns and the most crucial period for a retirement portfolio Motivations for writing his latest book and debunking retirement myths Safety First vs Probability First Optionality vs Commitment Different profiles and preferences, and a framework to accommodate them all A controversial take on the importance of asset allocation Why a 4% withdrawal rate is the least efficient approach Navigating the tax maze And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, September 20, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Jeff Weniger on the Housing Recession, Perky Consumers, and Where to Invest Now
Our friend Jeff Weniger, Head of Equity Strategy at Wisdom Tree, returned as this week’s guest. Our wide-ranging conversation covered topics including: How sticky has inflation really become Many ways to measure inflation Leading and lagging indicators The recent drop in US home prices and the health of the real-estate market How the recent rise in interest rates affects mortgages and affordability US money supply and the reversal of the TINA trade Japan – demographics, debt burden and a collapsing Yen Reverse currency wars What makes a country (and its currency) a safe haven The apparent disconnect between financial markets and the economy How investors should prepare and protect their portfolios for the next few years And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, September 14, 2022
ReSolve Riffs Returns! The ReSolve Crew Offers a Galaxy Brain Perspective on CTAs!
As we returned from the summer break, the season’s opening episode brought the ReSolve crew together for a deep dive into Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies, often referred to as Managed Futures, covering topics that included: The path we all took to become CTA fund managers The role these strategies can and should play in portfolios How to position them within a broader asset allocation framework ‘Closet betas’ vs true diversifiers Are CTAs necessarily synonymous with trend following? The many faces of trend following ‘Lumpy’ returns and prolonged winters The role central banks have played in reducing outcome dispersion across asset classes Behavioral hurdles and challenges Going beyond trend and the tradeoffs associated with stacking other strategies All-weather vs all-terrain investing And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, August 05, 2022
GestaltU with Claudia Sahm on Macroeconomics for Individuals and Families
Today’s guest is Claudia Sahm, who is the founder of Stay-At-Home Macro Consulting. She also writes a Substack of the same name, stayathomemacro.substack.com . She is a former Federal Reserve analyst, and also a former White House economic adviser. Claudia and I discussed the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy, and how the government and the Federal Reserve might more effectively combine forces to use the best tools available to address many of the major challenges that are ongoing in the domestic economy today. We also discuss the limitations and strengths of monetary policy and the lost opportunities for constructive action in terms of fiscal policy, and what measures we might be able to take to make progress in Washington, and if so, what type of policy actions might have the greatest impact in terms of improving quality of life without exacerbating the immediate economic effects of the current inflationary impulse. We also talk about the impact of the wealth effect and debate the extent to which housing, the rapid rise in home prices and the enormous outlier gains in equity portfolios over the last several years may be contributing substantially to the type of inflation that we’ve started to see recently on the services side, in terms of discretionary travel, shelter, discretionary healthcare spending and labor costs. Hosted by Adam Butler of ReSolve Global* *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, July 29, 2022
GestaltU with Logan Mohtashani on the “Savagely Unhealthy Housing Market”
Logan is one of the foremost experts on the state and health of the U.S. housing market. In his capacity as Lead Analyst for HousingWire, he invokes a comprehensive data-driven framework for understanding the fundamental drivers of housing supply and demand. Logan demonstrated his expertise on the subject, bringing to bear data and analysis from a variety of sources and perspectives. The housing market is extremely complex with many agents and feedback effects. Logan’s insights into the motivations and risk management tactics of homebuilders were especially interesting. We discussed whether private sector incentives are likely to alleviate a chronic housing shortage and concluded that agents rarely have the right incentives to seek equilibrium between supply and demand. Logan believes sufficiently high interest rates on mortgages will curtail demand and slowly bring supply onto the market to ease price growth, but it will be slow, and a pivot in rates may spur a renewed surge in demand. There are few easy options and it’s hard to see how the housing crisis will be resolved any time soon. Hosted by Adam Butler of ReSolve Global* *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority
Fri, July 22, 2022
GestaltU with Demetri Kofinas on the Politics of MMT, Societal Objectives, & Institutional Trust
The conversation was motivated by Demetri’s tweets about MMT and fiscal policy, which stirred up quite a conflagration, and involved several primary exponents of MMT including Warren Mosler and Rohan Gray. Adam and Demetri spent the first 35 or 40 minutes on MMT, mostly overcoming the frustration around the politicization of the concept. They discussed inequality and government’s involvement in the economy. The conversation then shifted to what’s happening currently in the economy and to the US politically, both domestically and in terms of their projection of power internationally. It was natural for the discussion to cover how a constant dwelling on themes around geopolitics and markets, and all the major risks, can weigh on your psyche, and how easy it is to develop pathos and obsessions, and how that can sometimes impact your personal life. Demetri was kind enough to share his experience with brain cancer and how that was so transformative for him and how that translates to his outlook on life and his ability to see past some of the major issues that we constantly think about, and focus on some of the amazing things in our lives. Hosted by Adam Butler of ReSolve Global* *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, June 28, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Mutineer Jason Buck on All Weather and Cockroach Portfolios for the Long Run
This week we welcomed back our good friend Jason Buck (founder and CIO of Mutiny Fund) for the final episode before the summer break. Our conversation included: Recent price action in the commodity space The incredible confidence of the ‘buy the dip’ equity investors An end to the “bad news is good news” regime The mental pivot required to successfully navigate regime shift Why prolonged bear markets have become a foreign idea to most investors The kind of environment in which the difference between nominal and real returns matters most Human’s constant pursuit of historical analogues The Farmer’s Fable, macro efficiency and a mentality of abundance The opportunities created by the blind-spots in traditional portfolios and the allure of an ‘esoteric fringe’ A harmonious core and a zero-sum explorer Observing the ongoing evolution of the zeitgeist Evidence-based zealotry Two types of scientific theories – those that have been disproven, and those that one day will be An eternal struggle between the brain’s hemispheres – falsifiable simplicity vs intellectual rabbit-holes And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, June 21, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski of Eurodollar University on Inflationary Market Signals
This week we had the pleasure of welcoming Jeff Snider (Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investments) and Emil Kalinowski (enterprising investor, author and host of both a talk radio show and a podcast). Together, they co-host Eurodollar University podcast and shed light on the complexities of the global monetary system. Our conversation included: Back to basics – how the global currency and monetary systems actually work The origins of the Eurodollar system Triffin’s Paradox and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System Interest rate targeting as a form of mass psychosis for capital markets How banking reserves interact with the Eurodollar system Different types of money – commodity-backed, high-powered and credit Treasuries as the main form of balance sheet ballast for private investors A different take on the Great Financial Crisis – a stampede towards prime collateral at all costs Why central banks would compete to buy assets that are already scarce and in high demand The true impacts of quantitative easing and why it’s ineffective in reducing interest rates The importance of sentiment and why the main role of central banks is theatrical Lacking the tools to unclog the system How even China got caught in the ‘Eurodollar System Vortex’ Vast swathes of the real economy have been deprived of credit since 2008 REPO markets, unwilling primary dealers and backwards elasticity Rehypothecation of collateral and other fundamental problems Creation and intermediation of money should be done by separate institutions And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, June 17, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with the ReSolve Crew on Optimizing Risk Parity and Stacking Alphas
For this week’s special episode, Adam, Mike, Rodrigo and Richard gathered to explore the building blocks of an ultimate All Weather portfolio. Our conversation included: The blind spots of the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio Regime dependency and economic shocks Diversifiable versus non-diversifiable risks How to create an optimal portfolio that can navigate most regimes Why Global Risk Parity is the natural starting point for any investor with a long-term view Different ways to implement Risk Parity Time horizons and rebalancing Tactical tilts and the beta-alpha continuum Yield as another proxy for risk Global Carry as a complement to risk parity beta The Existence Proof as a threat to alpha Trend following, seasonality, carry, counter-trend, relative value and volatility Why one man’s alpha can sometimes be another’s (smart) beta Ensembles and thinking beyond traditional factors Considering speed and size And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, June 15, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Cem Karsan on Options Alpha and a Shifting Macro Landscape
We had the pleasure this week of speaking with Cem Karsan (the pronunciation can be a bit challenging, bit the hint is in his Twitter handle - @jam_croissant ), founder of Kai Volatility Advisors . His deep knowledge of market structures and investment flows took us on a fascinating conversation that included: Joining a team early in his career that would become one of the Street’s largest options market makers Developing a profound understanding of the reflexive game of dealer positioning and its feedback effects on asset prices Launching Kai Volatility Advisors and three uncorrelated strategies A quantitative approach with a discretionary overlay The circumstances under which dealer flow becomes most relevant The upcoming June expiration and the ‘massive delta’ hovering over the market Distributions vs expectations The remarkable advances in the options market over the last two decades The ‘dramatic oversupply’ of volatility and its underperformance as an asset-class The JP Morgan Equity Hedge giant and its impact on the market Efficiency, transparency and performance – the trade-offs between ETFs and private pools Cem’s global macro perspective and his take on the current environment The explosive combination of cheap capital and technological innovation The road to inflation – inequality, populism and a pandemic-induced fiscal trigger of titanic proportions And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Mon, June 06, 2022
GestaltU Podcast with Jason Josephiac on Portable Alpha, Risk Mitigation and the Future of Investing
This week Adam and Rodrigo of ReSolve Global* had the pleasure of speaking with Jason Josephiac of Meketa Investment Group. Our conversation spanned topics including: His background in the industry and joining Meketa Asset Allocation: label/category diversification vs. risk/functional diversification Risk Parity vs. Traditional Asset Allocation What Portable Alpha Synthetically creating your own “bond” with risk factors not directly tied to spreads and rates Risk Mitigating Strategies (RMS) Long Volatility – 1st Responders Trend Following – 2nd Responders Beta Neutral and Uncorrelated (Diversifiers) Behavioral/psychological biases of investors Why “hedge funds” are not an asset class and many “hedge fund” programs tend not to withstand the test of time What is risk? Generalists vs. Specialists How LDI portfolios could be improved Evolution of dissecting returns and understanding factor risks, what is alpha vs. beta How can investment managers and investors become better aligned? Thank you very much for tuning in – please like and share if you find the content valuable! *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, May 24, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Rob Van Wielingen on Systematic All Weather Investing
Our guest this week was Rob Van Wielingen, President & CEO of Viewpoint Investment Partners, a boutique investment management firm offering systematic strategies to private and institutional investors. Our conversation included: The Van Wielingen family background in the oil and gas industry Rob’s decision at an early age to focus on finance and technology Learning from his grandfather’s experience: “I know what it’s like to be rich – I’ve been rich three times” How the family gradually moved from highly concentrated allocations in energy companies to diversified portfolios The logical fallacy of active vs passive as the starting point for rethinking their investment approach Why the path to becoming rich is diametrically opposed to that of staying rich Trial by fire – launching the business during the Great Financial Crisis From rudimentary spreadsheets to ‘full blown quant’ The trouble with lagged and infrequent data Embracing the ideas of Return Stacking The differences between Risk Parity and Risk Budgeting Recursive Risk Parity – drawing the best ideas from different approaches Human nature vs systematic approaches Carry, Trend, and how asset allocation can be both relative and absolute And more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc.is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, May 18, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Andy Constan about Successful Macro Trading on Liquidity, Flows & Sentiment
This week we had the pleasure of speaking with Andy Constan (CEO / CIO at Damped Spring Advisors) and prolific member of the FinTwit community under the @dampedspring penname. Our conversation spanned topics including: His long and interesting career in the investment world Starting with equity derivatives and eventually earning his ‘global macro education’ at Bridgewater Associates The constantly evolving challenge of generating alpha Trading and managing portfolios at scale and the importance of liquidity Separating alpha from beta Basis risk vs liquidity risk The broad macro picture vs what is priced in The unique challenges posed by the current environment The front-running of quantitative tightening The daily marking to market of risk premia The weak link between consumer inflation and the Fed’s balance sheet The interplay between the Fed, the Treasury and the bond market Interpreting the messages coming from policymakers The importance of positioning data and rebalancing flows And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, May 11, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Vincent Deluard on the Historical Trajectory of Inflation and Market Implications
Vincent Deluard is the Global Macro Strategist for StoneX, where he advises institutional investors on asset allocation and risk management. He joined us for an awesome conversation that covered topics including: His early life in France - expectations for public service but ‘saved’ by a scholarship to study abroad Bitten by the ‘quantitative bug’ from the very start of his career How his macro framework evolved Inflection points in the mega trends that have endured for the last 40 years Concerns with inflation pre-date the pandemic How COVID ‘shrank’ time Sample of one – why Japanese stagnation should not be extrapolated as the path for other countries The demographic collapse in East Asia Views on MMT – analytical tool more than policy framework The ‘incestuous’ relationship between central banks and their governments’ treasuries – from the left pocket to the right The ‘fairy tale land’ of the Fed’s economic projections Inflation as the last painful path to ‘clean up’ excess debt in the system US, Europe, China, and Japan – immigration dynamics and long-term prosperity Analogues with the post-WW2 and 1970s inflationary periods and why this time is likely different The risk that inflation continues to accelerate – the expectation channel The ‘kink’ in the Eurodollar curve Are there viable alternatives to the US dollar? How investors should rethink and broaden their asset allocation approach And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, May 03, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Meb Faber - The Dude Abides
It had been a while since we riffed with our good friend Meb Faber (co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management), and as always, he didn’t disappoint. Our thought-provoking conversation covered topics such as: Meb’s big announcement – his Idea Farm, which curates investment content from a wide variety of sources, is now free Recent equity market dynamics and the pain that historically comes with inflation Why dogmatism and inflexibility are two of the worst traits for investors Never allowing your ideas to become part of your identity Diversification and ensembles are the right way forward, but most investors can’t follow because they are secretly gamblers at heart Marc Faber is not Meb’s dad Chasing the hot hand is rarely a winning investment strategy for the long run The irresistible allure of lottery-ticket stocks vs the Law of Large Numbers The incredible round-trip by ARK ETFs and a following that resembles a religion Every investment makes you richer or wiser, but never both The power of compounding and the most unbelievable investment statistic you’ll ever hear Most professional investors have a process for what they buy, but no process for what they sell The right time horizon to evaluate a strategy is MUCH longer than most investors can stick with if it doesn’t outperform from the start And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, April 26, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Kris Abdelmessih on Exploring Life Under the (Option) Surface
We were joined this week by Kris Abdelmessih, who spent most of his career as an options trader and now writes about the relationship between money, work and creativity in the Moontower blog and weekly newsletter. Our conversation covered topics that included: Becoming a derivatives and options trader straight out of college Defining the difference between trading and investing Identifying alpha – understanding your edge and capitalizing on it The business of trading Not just surviving but thriving during the Dotcom Crash Learning under the wings of Reggie Brown The high natural rate of attrition in options trading A portable skillset – from derivatives to the underlying The highly disruptive period of the early 2000s The trading pit as the home to misfits and ‘X-men’ Speed as a quintessential skill How the ‘shale boom’ compressed volatility in natural gas Trading can be defined as ‘seeing the present clearly’ Joining FinTwit to learn about the broader investment landscape And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, April 15, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Rohan Grey on #Inflation, #MMT, #MintTheCoin and #CBDCs
Our guest this week was Rohan Grey, assistant professor at Willamette University College of Law where he teaches Contracts, Business Associations and Securities Regulation. Rohan is also a prominent advocate of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and has also recently been involved in drafting regulations in the digital asset and currency space. Our wide ranging conversation took us through historical periods, current policy debates, and included: Why laws have historically been ‘kind to the rich’ and ‘just to the poor’ The notion of ‘legal realism’ The fog of legal liability risks MMT vs Classical Economics Defining money from the MMT vantage point Personifying ‘the taxpayer’ Private credit vs official money Why the US actually left the gold standard in the 1930s and not the 1970s The greenback and the paper money movement Currencies backed by precious metals and ‘Schrodinger’s Gold’ Governments have monopoly over the use of force, but not the creation of money The policy paradigm shift precipitated by the pandemic MMT is not just about deficit spending, and other major policy components Unemployment as a policy choice Biden’s “whatever it takes” moment Neoclassical monetary tightening and the ‘shadow of Volcker’ E-Cash, CBDCs and policy frameworks for the digital realm Central Bank vs Treasury – who should have sovereignty over the currency Why it can be wrong to be right too soon And much, much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, April 13, 2022
Antti Ilmanen on his new book “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns”
Dr. Antti Ilmanen, Principal and Global Co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management joins ReSolve Global CIO Adam Butler to discuss the core themes from Antti’s new book, “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns.” In this 100 minute conversation we explore the following themes at length: The pros and cons of several models for forecasting stock returns The role of bonds in portfolios when yields are low. How to measure and optimize the credit risk premium The sources of return for commodity portfolios and the critical role of inflation sensitive assets for optimal portfolio diversification Why the illiquidity premium is probably an illiquidity discount Why PE returns are probably overstated and can be mostly replicated with public market portfolios Style premia as distinct from academic factor models A lengthy discussion on the role and character of global carry strategies, and myth-busting Is global carry the ultimate risk premia strategy? The many benefits of trend and macro trading strategies, especially during inflationary regimes Why Carry and Trend work so well together in portfolios The origins of ‘Defensive Premia’ Which style premia are most overlooked relative to their potential value in a portfolio Which style premia have historically offered the highest sensitivity to inflation Why global risk parity allocations across risk premia and style premia represents the most efficient portfolio The regulatory imperative to maximize diversification Why most investors can’t or won’t invest this way There is not one wasted moment in this conversation, and it is chock-full of practical take-aways for investors of every type. If you listen to one podcast this week, and are motivated to make the most of your invested capital, make it this one! You can find Antti’s book on Amazon here: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1119860199/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i2 Additional book-related content; including “deleted scenes” that didn’t make the final book: Aqr.com/Serenity Hosted by Adam Butler of ReSolve Global* *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commis
Tue, April 05, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Stuart Barton on Structuring Volatility ETPs
Our guest this week was Stuart Barton, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer at Volatility Shares. Our conversation ranged across topics that included: Early career as a vol trader and how the space has changed over time Volatility Shares’ investment approach – probability-weighting and active trading ETNs, ETFs and other ‘packaging’ models – benefits and drawbacks Settlement as a crucial variable – matching vehicles and their underlying assets A post-mortem on the ‘Volmageddon’ episode in February 2018 Volatility strategies – wide variety of flavors for investors of all stripes and sizes ‘Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller’ and other vol strategies to avoid Asymmetric risks and rewards Term-structures, curves, expirations and roll-yields The ‘boring’ 3-month VIX futures contracts Multiple sources of signal in the VIX curve, including its shape and how it moves vs the S&P 500 (aka skew delta) The relationship between spot and future volatility at different points along the curve The various ‘800-pound gorillas in the room’ and their techniques for minimizing market impact Why attempts at front-running these larger players sometimes go awry The reflexive and ever-evolving race towards alpha And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, March 29, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Bilal Hafeez of Macro Hive on the Paradigm Shift in Global Markets
This week we had the pleasure of welcoming Bilal Hafeez, founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, and the host of the Macro Hive Conversations podcast. We had a broad global macro conversation that included: Bilal’s journey in the finance industry through North America, Asia and back to Europe Retiring from corporate life and founding a ‘hive-mind’ research firm A top-down approach with an eye for structural trends and a cyclical view Interest rates as the main concern for both retail and institutional clients Central Banking dichotomy – austere in developing nations, creative across the G7 The US Dollar as the ‘cleanest dirty shirt’ Does the US dollar system still serve the best interest of the US? The gravity-defying paradox of equity markets (especially in recent weeks) The Ukrainian war and a global commodity shock The prospects of an energy crisis An upcoming US recession and the possibility of yet another policy blunder by the Fed Navigating the spike in uncertainty with a large cash position Digital assets – a multitude of use cases, evolving regulations, and long-term bullishness The podcast guests that have changed his views over time And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, March 24, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Eric Balchunas on The Bogle Effect
Our good friend Eric Balchunas (Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence) joined us once again, this time to discuss his new book “The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions”. We covered topics that included: Bogle’s early life as a university student and his 1949 thesis Becoming the young CEO of Wellington Fund at age 35 Bogle’s initial enthusiasm with active management before building his “passive juggernaut” The beginnings of Vanguard – starting off as a “back-office company” His rough yet friendly attitude to competitors Vanguard as the “Amazon of asset managers” Giving people what they wanted before they even knew it Mutual ownership structure as a key feature of the ETF revolution Growing and taking market share from “closet beta” funds Vanguard took 30 years to get to USD 1 trillion in AUM, and another 15 years to get to USD 8T Crypto ETFs as a possible next step for Vanguard Thematic ETFs as the “hot sauce” on top of vanilla portfolios And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, March 16, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Preet Banerjee on Aligning Incentives and Finding the Right Advisor
We were joined this week by Preet Banerjee, host of the Mostly Money podcast, management consultant focused on commercial applications of behavioral finance, and founder of MoneyGaps’: "Light Financial Planning" software for advisors. Our conversation included topics such as: Preet’s diverse background – from neuroscience and financial advisory to auto racing Realizing everything is about psychology Outgrowing his advisory practice and becoming a consultant Setting out to quantify the value of financial advice across multiple channels Navigating industry minefields and the trouble with incentives The risks involved with Order Execution Only Innovations in the “high volume, light touch” advice The many faces of financial guidance The evolution of the robo-advisory model Separating wheat and chaff in advisory land Hyperbolic discounting Time inconsistent preferences Process, discipline and maximizing potential outcomes Regulations, choice abundance and Australia’s superannuation model And much more… This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, March 08, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Macro Legend Alex Gurevich on Inflation and Navigating Markets in Crisis
We were joined this week by none other than Alex Gurevich, founder and CIO of HonTe Investments, author of The Next Perfect Trade, and more recently The Trades of March 2020 – A Shield Against Uncertainty, and a legend in the macro hedge fund industry. Our conversation included topics such as: His background in math, and as a competitive chess, GO and poker player An analytical approach that was well-suited for a Wall Street trader Skin in the game – he wanted to be a trader from the start, not an analyst Typical patterns in financial markets tend to repeat themselves much more frequently than most investors realize Employment and energy prices as strong leading indicators for a recession Interest rate momentum and a bearish outlook for equities How tighter monetary policy may be the wrong tool to fight inflation caused by higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions (and could backfire) Political pressures, the Fed, and the increasing likelihood of a policy error An investment approach focused on major global asset classes and big picture thinking Seeking opportunities with asymmetric odds Precious metals are less about inflation and more about liquidity A risky moment for the global reserve currency How to protect against low probability scenarios that can pose devastatingly negative outcomes Creative hedging Avoiding unnecessary complexity when expressing views – vanilla is usually better than exotic options Time horizons, and differentiating risk management for a trade vs portfolio holding Sizing, stress analysis and conviction – why stop losses are not always the best way to manage risk This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Mon, March 07, 2022
ReSolve Riffs w/ Marcos Bueno of Ascent Systematic on a Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Quant Equity
This week we had the pleasure of speaking with Marcos Bueno, CIO at Ascent Systematic Advisors. Marcos has a diverse and well-rounded backgrounded in finance, and our conversation covered topics that included: His background at proprietary trading desks and macro funds Starting his career in fundamental, research-oriented investing Early successes during a bull market while recognizing the role of luck The GFC, the Volker Rule and leaving Wall Street to join Graham Capital in London Combining global macro with trend-following The different perspectives between value investors and macro traders Opinion vs Gospel, Humility vs Hubris Bitten by the ‘systematic bug’ and becoming enamored with its elegance and efficiency Systematic thinking as a superior approach by keeping biases in check and limiting your downside Why the market is always ‘right’, even when it’s ‘wrong’ The emotional investment that comes with deep fundamental equity analysis and how it can skew investors’ perception How trend following takes advantage of some of the permanent features in markets Reflection on cognitive biases and trading intuition from a systematic perspective Signaling, information diffusion and self-fulfilling prophecies And much more… This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, February 22, 2022
ReSolve Crew Riffs on Inflation Volatility and Smarter Portfolio Allocations
After a multi-decade slumber, inflation has been dominating the economic and financial zeitgeist over the last twelve months. The sustained sell-off in both US stocks and bonds at the start of 2022 was an unfamiliar sight to investors that grew accustomed to the negative correlation that created the once mighty 60/40 portfolio. Are we entering a new paradigm where inflation has both higher mean and variance? Adam, Mike and Rodrigo lay out their views for navigating inflationary times, including topics such as: The difference between sustained and volatile inflation Large supply and demand mismatch, combined with a reversal of globalization gains of recent decades The huge difference in effects between monetary and fiscal stimuli The post-war years as a better analogy than the 1970’s for the current backdrop Different types of inflation and varied downstream effects Path dependency and the wide dispersion of possible scenarios Whether transitory or sustained, it’s hard to disagree that we now have higher inflation volatility What types of strategies can thrive during inflationary periods Shifting regimes and the ‘primordial soup’ of portfolio construction Transition phases and leadership changes on decade-long cycles Why commodity-sensitive stocks haven’t really protected portfolios in inflationary shocks The case for multi-asset trend and global macro momentum strategies Protecting against inflation volatility and prolonged bear markets – a historical perspective Portfolio construction for a new macroeconomic scenario This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, February 15, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Cullen Roche on Decoding MMT: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Our guest this week was Cullen Roche, CIO of Disciplined Funds, founder of Orcam Financial Group and author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance. We discussed topics that included: Disciplined Funds’ macro-oriented investment approach Cullen’s rude awakening – classic economics learned in university is largely at odds with real world economics Taking a step back and learning public finances from first principles Digging into the mechanics of quantitative easing, fiscal policy and other major interventions “If you're not confused, you don't understand what's going on” The Kalecki Equation and wealth concentration Fiscal Stimulus – how much is too much An introduction to Modern Monetary Theory The role played by a “currency monopoly” From an MMT perspective, unemployment is a failure of government Why the median voter is so disappointed with the current system that they will likely swing to one of the extremes – the question is which one? The need for productivity improvement to keep up with fiscal outlays The Real Estate Conundrum – a depreciating block of wood on an ever-scarcer plot of land What percentage of homeowners can withstand rising interest rates? The demographic question, Japanification and home prices Thinking of portfolio construction in the current environment – core and satellites Cullen’s 90/10 Rule – helping investors stick with their structured portfolio allocations by “allowing” them to speculate on a small portion of their assets This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, February 08, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Viktor Shvets: The Great Rupture, Freedom vs Prosperity & the Future of Humanity
This week we had the privilege of hosting Viktor Shvets, Managing Director at Macquarie Securities and author of ‘The Great Rupture - Three Empires, Four Turning Points and the Future of Humanity - Do we need to be free?’. This deeply insightful conversation touched on topics that included: Is freedom truly a prerequisite for prosperity? Hong Kong’s transition from global hub to China-centric US and Chinese societies face similar challenges, but have a vastly different toolkit to tackle them China as the world’s locomotive for 18 of the last 20 centuries The extraordinary, and largely unknown, impact Genghis Khan and the Mongols had on civilization The interplay between institutions, culture and geography, and their combined role in the wealth of nations Roman institutions as the great inheritance bestowed upon the West Keynesian and Marxist canon – more similarities than many would believe The highly disruptive labor dislocations between the first and second Industrial Revolutions The likely disruption and dislocation over the next couple of decades How we got here – capital abundance, declining productivity and inequality Technology, financialization and the Fujiwara Effect – when hurricanes collide and compound Maslowian disappointment and the dwindling faith in institutions and the system Breaking the loop – finding the right set of carrots and sticks Building a bridge to the future Inflation volatility, continued secular deflation and a ripe moment for active management Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Mon, January 31, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Rafael Resendes on Fundamental Flaws with Quantitative Value
The prospect of normalizing monetary policy has been the main catalyst for a major equity rotation that has favored value stocks. Could this be the long-awaited reawakening of value investing? We had the pleasure of speaking to Rafael “Rafa” Resendes, co-founder of Applied Finance and prominent value investor. Our conversation covered: Economic ValueTM as a core metric The power of the Investment Factor The importance of capitalizing R&D and other balance sheet adjustments Sensitivity analyses – recognizing how impactful assumptions on growth and cost of capital can be for valuations Risks that cannot be diversified away must offer higher returns Why CAPM doesn’t make sense, both empirically and logically A market implied approach to cost of capital Leverage and size matter (a lot), though the former even more than the latter Taking advantage of historic mis-pricings Multiples, profitability, risk and competition The relevance of a company’s cash flow duration, and how it relates to interest rates Balancing risk vs duration Intrinsic value and asset pricing models Valuation as measured by implied future growth Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, January 25, 2022
ReSolve Riffs with Jeff Weniger on Macro Themes and Surprises in 2022
To kick off the new year, our 2022 inaugural episode welcomed back Jeff Weniger, Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management. Sharp-witted and pulling no punches, Jeff and the team covered topics that included: The early year equity rotation as the inflation narrative gathers steam The third leg of the portfolio stool that most investors are likely missing Owning commodities vs commodity-linked equities Most investors today have barely had any experience with inflation in markets – remembering the commodity super-cycle of the early 2000s Not all inflation is created equally – how it arises determines what asset-classes and instruments can be used most effectively The types of risk gold responds to, and why it hasn’t performed as many expected Owner’s Equivalent Rent and its delayed effect in the Consumer Price Index Maybe the cure for high commodity prices… is high commodity prices The “stealth crash” in the Nasdaq and aggressive equity sector rotation Market-cap weighted equity investors can miss out on huge gains in underrepresented sectors over prolonged periods The possible upcoming perils for Big Tech An ESG Conundrum – the anti-social externality caused by social media platforms Disclosure and the new paradigm of ESG – how sticky can this be? The era of crisis, necessity and change on both micro and macro levels The toughest decade ever for diversified portfolios The reawakening of the value factor Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, December 22, 2021
ReSolve Riffs Digs into Physical Precious Metals with Mark Yaxley
This week we had the pleasure of hosting Mark Yaxley, founding partner of Strategic Wealth Preservation , which specializes in the acquisition and storage of precious metals for investors around the world. He also brought his team member Philip Zappacosta to the conversation, which covered topics that included: Mark’s journey through the commodity space, before founding SWP The reasons that drive investors to own physical precious metals Different wealth objectives – creation vs growth vs preservation Property rights and jurisdiction considerations Understanding the role gold has played throughout history Watching the behavior of central banks Why loyalty to an asset-class doesn’t always stem from being “bitten by a bug” Why gold should be considered true money The role of other precious metals in portfolios The densest precious metal that you probably never heard of Silver – hundreds of industrial applications, less attractive in Asia and Europe and likely the most underpriced today Bar sizes, purity, utilities and different premiums The importance of holding smaller bars for liquidity – fractional ownership in the physical space Why gold hasn’t performed as expected in a year of high inflation When to invest in futures, ETFs or miners vs outright physical metals Thank you for watching and listening. Happy holidays, see you in January. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, December 16, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Glen Burella of Abbey Capital on Research and Sales for Systematic Strategies
This week we spoke with Glen Burella, PhD, Vice President, Business Development at Abbey Capital (US). Glen previously worked on the investment research side of Abbey Capital having a background in quantum computing and a theoretical physics PHD. Our conversation with Glen covered the following themes: The incredible combination of stocks and trend following Glen’s attraction to science and math A glimpse inside a PhD in quantum physics First days at a new quant firm Behind the scenes at Abbey Capital’s research division Launching new products and taking business risk Abbey Capital’s focus on multi-manager portfolios Why multi-manager instead of single ensemble? Dealing with performance fees in a multi-manager portfolio Segregated accounts vs trade netting Selecting managers and assembling portfolios The role of CTAs in institutional mandates How CTAs are an optimal solution for the coming inflation volatility regime Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, December 14, 2021
Ben Hunt: COVID 19 - Science, Politics, Liberty and the Long Grind
This episode features Ben Hunt, founder of Second Foundation Partners , which hosts the Epsilon Theory content portal. I reached out to Ben because I’d been starting to feel myself shifting gears on my feelings and perceptions around the ongoing COVID pandemic, and I knew Ben would be able to help put things in proper perspective. For most of the past 18 months or so I have been firmly in support of most of the measures taken by governments to manage the health impacts of the virus. We adhered strictly to lockdown guidelines, supported border closures, followed protocols, and received vaccines and boosters as soon as they were available. But over the past few weeks I’d felt myself becoming frustrated with the lack of progress on the policy front. After all, residents of developed countries have had access to highly effective vaccines for almost 9 months. Every resident has had ample opportunity to get fully vaccinated at no financial cost, and residents of many countries have had plenty of time to get free booster shots. Yet still, here we are. Everyone I talk to seems to be much more terrified of testing positive than of actually getting the virus. Everyone wants to travel, or go back to university, or see family – live a fulfilling life with the people we care about! – but they’re petrified about facing trip cancelations, quarantines, and/or huge expenses from a positive COVID test. Isn’t the world upside down when most people are more afraid of running afoul the regulations in place to prevent a danger, than they are of the danger itself! These are the themes I felt I needed to cover with Ben, and we did cover most of them in our 90 minute conversation. Ben was extremely patient and generous with his time, wisdom and insights. However, I admit to still feeling like several critical points went unresolved. This gap was definitely my fault, and not Ben’s. It just took me a few days of further ruminating to see the holes I wanted to fill. I think this is an important and timely conversation with someone who understand the topic from top to bottom, and who sees the issues with clear eyes, and a full heart. I hope you get as much value out of it as I did.
Mon, December 13, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Darius Dale on Inflation and Regime Based Trading Tactics
Daruis Dale is the Founder and CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional macro-grade risk management frameworks and processes. Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford CT. He joined us for jam-packed and timely conversation that included topics such as: Positioning for inflation volatility and the “Midas Touch” The Fed and accelerating the taper The Dynamics of the recent “Friday Smackdown” The missing “Guardians of the Gate” The implications for bonds Cyclical changes and secular regimes Declaring regimes and pricing them in Portfolio construction and conditional probability Why you don’t get paid for being too early Frontrunning pricing with intuition and expectations The Style Factor and why it’s the best predictor Back-testing regime ensembles Covariance ranking, layering and beta ranking in portfolio construction Selecting and weighting macro indicators Behavioral Economics and why being different is important The impact of Bitcoin on portfolios The effects of expensive markets relative to inflation Policy mistakes and corrections Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, November 26, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Phil Huber on the Allocator’s Edge, Alternative Investments and Diversification
Phil Huber is the Chief Investment Officer of Savant Wealth Management, and author of The Allocator's Edge: A Modern Guide to Alternative Investments and the Future of Diversification . He joined us for a great discussion that covered topics such as: Educating advisors on the role of alternative strategies in portfolios and their benefits Recency bias and why “hindsight is 60/40” A different approach to building a truly balanced portfolio Why allocators find it difficult to diversify away from stocks and bonds, despite recognizing how expensive they currently are Dealing with an environment that most financial professionals have never come across in their lives Embracing alternative risk premiums and trying to understand why they work Private equity and hedge funds – the ‘gateway’ alts Niche vs large managers – why size matters and finding the sweet spot Path dependency and sequence of returns Communication challenges and getting clients across the line to embrace a novel approach Line item risk vs portfolio ‘gestalt’ Fiduciary responsibilities, diversification, fees and behavioral considerations Behavioral coaching as an integral part of an advisor’s job A wide range of experiences and unrealistic expectations – why alternative strategies haven’t been fully embraced by retail investors In the absence of value, we negotiate price Overcrowding, passive-flows and factor underperformance The pitfalls of overly conservative assumptions Minimizing regret vs maximizing utility Plan vs planning – a perpetual, ongoing exercise Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, November 16, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Jack Forehand on Excess Returns and a Factor Renaissance
Jack Forehand is co-founder, partner and CIO at Validea Capital, and is also the co-host of the popular Excess Returns podcast. He joined us for an awesome conversation that included topics such as: The different styles for interviewing guests –preparation vs improvisation Factor models to decompose the returns achieved by famed managers Peter Lynch and the real mystery behind his track-record Momentum vs return chasing Cycles, underperformance and the benefits of combining different methodologies The hard problem of factor allocation based on historical returns A pragmatic approach that earned Jack his Twitter Handle – @practicalquant Education, discipline and adherence The incredibly long winter experienced by the value factor – is it over Behavioral vulnerabilities – knowing about them doesn’t dampen their effect Holding minimum amounts of cash – the additional tail-wind for indexed products Tracking error can be more painful than the risk of losses Why finding your like-minded tribe is a crucial component of sticking with a strategy Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Mon, November 08, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Perth Tolle on Investing with the Courage of Moral Conviction
Perth Tolle is the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes , an index provider and sponsor of the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF – a first of its kind strategy that uses personal and economic freedom metrics as primary factors in its investment process. She joined us for a great conversation that included: How her early life in China, Hong Kong and the US shaped her perceptions of freedom Isolating the “freedom factor” and using it, not as a tilt, but the primary basis for investment decisions The enormous task of quantifying, converting, and scaling 76 different metrics, many of which are qualitative Political, judicial, economic and social – freedom measured in its many forms Settling contradictions when different freedoms collide Why Perth has avoided the ESG label The many signs that suggested that this was a product that needed to exist Stumbling onto a fishing trip with industry heavy-weights and securing seed capital Reaching the important milestone of USD 100 million assets under management Forging her own path in an extremely competitive and challenging industry Accepting that she can no longer travel to several countries because of her work Her partnership with Alpha Architect New projects on the horizon Thank you for watching and listening See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, November 02, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Jon Aikman of ReSolution Investments on ESG and Inflation Hedging in Private Credit
This week we had the pleasure of hosting our friend Jon Aikman, President and CIO of ReSolution Investments, for a broad conversation on the three-lettered acronym that has taken the investment world by storm in the last few years: ESG – Environmental, Social and Governance. We covered: How a background in law, banking and academia developed into a passion for impact investing While the environment has drawn most of the attention, we shouldn’t overlook the social and governance agenda Untangling definitions and acronyms Anti-carbon policies running ahead of replacement technology Oil isn’t going away any time soon – think carbon sequestration Environmental goals at odds with shareholder value maximization One man’s waste is another man’s biofuel Investors’ time horizons are often too short to take long-term externalities into account Any time people make investment decisions for non-economic reasons, opportunities arise How dislocations impose ripe opportunities for active management Green washing, opportunism and gaming the system Incorporating inflation hedging within an ESG framework The temporal question – developed nations evolved and polluted, emerging markets want the right to do the same The tough economic decisions governments, companies and individuals are likely to face in the coming years Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, October 28, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Tom Morgan on Presence, Synthesis, and Giving the Master Its Due
Tom Morgan is Director of Communications and Content for the Knall/Cohen/Pence (KCP) Group at Stifel. He writes a weekly missive called The Attention Span, which curates and synthesizes content, ideas and frameworks to help readers make sense of an increasingly complex world. Tom, Richard, Mike and Adam wandered into a wide range of topics, but the central theme orbited around humanity’s universal craving for meaning and connection in the vacuum created by the post-modernist Western focus on empirical rationalism. Along the way we touched on the following subjects: The central importance of authenticity and following your passion to stand out and build community in an increasingly hostile information ecosystem The importance of intuition as a connection to the “extended mind” and the example of George Soros’ sore back The human obsession with the sacred and the profane, and how this need manifests in tribalism in the absence of religious context The West’s devilish obsession with left-brain priorities like data, taxonomies, definitions, and process, which are devoid of context and meaning The critical role of emergent dynamics in shaping our world from the bottom-up The potential for evolutionary processes to converge on awful solutions Potential dangers in applying constraints or directions in complex dynamic systems How asymmetrically powerful actors like Facebook’s engagement AIs might corrupt natural evolutionary processes and lead us down a dark path Why we are accelerating toward universal irrelevancy and must soon rethink the value of individuals and our social contracts How to “dance” with complexity and find the joy in adapting rather than controlling Why all meaningful change happens at the border of order and chaos Why the most important leaps forward always seem insane right up to the point when they are universally accepted This is obviously a long list, but there is so much more between the lines and in the connective tissue of the discussion. The ReSolve crew had a lot of fun with this conversation and we think you will too. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, October 19, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Wes Gray and Patrick Cleary at Alpha Architect about Launching a Bitcoin Futures ETF
Wes, Patrick and the Alpha Architect Team are long-time friends of ReSolve, and were gracious enough to join us last-minute to discuss their huge win in the ETF white label space, with the launch of the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF. Wes and team are known for their pure factor ETFs, but in the last few years they’ve pivoted from asset management to create an ETF Architect division, offering the “picks and shovels” for external managers to offer niche strategies with tight operations and low costs. Wes and Patrick give us the straight goods on what it takes to launch a successful ETF, including: Overcoming their academic focus on factor-oriented quant strategies to entertain more diverse offerings How “ETF Innovation” differs from traditional approaches and fund conversions The “minimum effective dose” of operating capital and market buy-in necessary to facilitate a successful ETF launch A deep dive into the levers of economics and margins for launching and operating an ETF Insights on changes to tax and regulatory rules proposed by the Biden administration, and the economic merits of equalizing ETF and mutual fund tax treatment Evolution in market access – how investors access ETFs vs mutual funds and how to get shelf space for fund products The special considerations involved in launching a Bitcoin ETF Overcoming the negative roll yield typical of Bitcoin futures The state of arbitrage in the digital asset space, and why juicy returns will probably persist You will not find a more candid, competent and credible team than Wes and Patrick to get the unfiltered version of what you need to deliver a successful ETF launch. It was also amazing to learn more about the machinations involved in standing up a crypto asset product, and getting a glimpse into the future of the space. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, October 13, 2021
ReSolve Riffs on Return Stacking with Corey and Rodrigo - “Ask-Me-Anything” #AMA
Traditional portfolios are faced with the prospects of depressed expected returns in the coming years, as implied by current stretched valuations of stocks, and near record low rates and credit spreads for bonds. Our recently released paper – Return Stacking: Strategies for Overcoming a Low Return Environment – co-authored by Rodrigo and our good friend Corey Hoffstein, shows how investors may materially improve their chances of success by allocating to uncorrelated managers that may offer more ‘bang for your buck’ and free up valuable ‘portfolio real-estate’. Fielding questions from the ‘Twittersphere’ as well as our live audience, this episode covers: The pitfalls of emulating large institutions with limited portfolio agility and mandate flexibility Stellar returns and recency bias – why so many investors remain anchored to the ‘60/40 portfolio’ Why stocks and bonds are structurally not designed to thrive in high inflation and/or low growth environments How loose fiscal policy, layered atop highly expansive monetary policy, strengthens the case for persistent inflation A trip down portfolio theory memory lane Risk transformation and financial alchemy Leverage aversion – concentrated bets vs capital efficient diversified return streams Structural diversification, tracking error and absolute returns Return stacking as a form of liability hedging for advisors Finding structural edges and tilting the odds in one’s favor The team also discussed the importance of separating the underlying components of any strategy, not only across asset-classes, but also beta, alpha, styles, and tilts, in order to use them as building blocks to create tailored portfolios with desired exposures. There’s also an “Easter Egg” where Adam discusses the results of a forthcoming paper on the shockingly large potential benefits of trade and fee netting in multi-strategy products. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, October 05, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Options Ninjas Benn Eifert and Scott Maidel from QVR Advisors
Whether stemming from a recession, a policy shock, a terrorist attack, or a global pandemic, financial markets periodically go through major selloffs. It has always been this way. Euphoria eventually leads to panic, every time. Another way to look at these crashes is through the lens of volatility (and its commensurate rise), which has become a fundamental component of investment decisions. As time goes by, innovations can (and will) suppress volatility and can sometimes give the impression that risk has been eliminated, but that is always a fool’s dream. Eventually the piper must be paid. Our guests this week were Benn Eifert (Founder & CIO) and Scott Maidel (Head of Business Development), of QVR Advisors, a boutique asset manager that specializes in strategies seeking to profit from volatility and all its downstream effects – including attempts to suppress it. We covered: How markets fundamentally changed following the Great Financial Crisis Call overwriting – the favorite strategy of yield-thirsty institutions Why ‘selling vol’ is too broad a term and has all but lost its meaning Everybody wants protection – reflexivity and the options tail that wags the equity dog The behemoth equity hedged strategy that now moves the market at the end of every quarter “Gradually, then suddenly” – the nature of volatility Gamma & Vanna – the second-order ‘Greeks’ and their outsized influence in short-term moves Execution is key – don’t trade against the Flash Boys Buying what you don’t want to build Systematic vs Quant Benn and Scott also described in detail QVR’s two main lines of business – absolute return and tailored solutions – providing insight into their processes and competitive advantages. We also discussed the distinct nature of different market crashes, trade monetization, rebalancing, and much more. It was a fascinating conversation and a true lesson on the current structure of equity markets. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, September 29, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Investing Legend Roy Niederhoffer about Pushing the Boundaries of Quant
We had a very special guest this week – Roy Niederhoffer, founder and president of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, a NY-based quantitative investment firm. With a strong musical background and an original plan to become a neuroscientist, Roy might have led an academic life if it weren’t for his programming skills and an offer to join his older brother’s hedge fund, one that he couldn’t refuse. He joined us for a fascinating conversation, covering topics such as: His early life, a diverse set of interests and becoming a highly-skilled generalist Striking out on his own – why would an institution ever invest with a 26-year old running computers in his living room? Developing short-duration strategies that are uncorrelated to both traditional and alternative investments Long volatility vs short volatility strategies The inescapable dopamine rush of capital markets and the importance of managing emotions Trend-following, convexity, and why the frequency of observations matters so much Behavioral neuroscience applied to markets Leaning into the work of Danny Kahneman and dissecting his magnum opus over dozens of weekly sessions Identifying price patterns that will trigger predictable emotional responses from market participants – therein lies the edge The difference between strategy management and risk management Printing of fiat money and the conditions for an elimination event that can wipe out multi-generational wealth He also summarized his general investment theory, which seeks to identify asset-class characteristics that can be generalized, those that will remain idiosyncratic, and some that might eventually spill over into other markets. Roy is a true polymath, with a unique perspective and a generous disposition to share his knowledge. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, September 22, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Laurence Siegel on "Fewer, Richer, Greener" and the Age of Abundance
“The unfortunate truth is, very few want to hear an optimistic take on the world during a pandemic.” Human beings evolved to pay closer attention to negative vs positive information. For our ancestors, the cost of seeing danger where there was none was a cortisol spike and an unnecessary sprint, but dismissing a real threat might have led them to be a predator’s next meal. Our guest this week was Laurence Siegel, Director of Research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation and author of “Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance” . We discussed the main themes from his book, including: The case for techno-optimism Demographics, healthcare and lifespan Inflation, deflation and hedonic adjustments Pollution, climate modelling and the wide range of possible outcomes Why nuclear power is a crucial component of a greener energy matrix Differences across geographies Economics, capital markets and realistic expectations We also debated the future of cities, real-estate costs and possible changes to the jobs market if we extrapolate current trends. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, September 14, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Tom Basso on The Making of a Trading Legend
“Don’t hide from risk; find it and attack it.” We were joined this week by none other than Tom Basso (Enjoytheride.world), trend following legend, author of Panic-Proof Investing and The Frustrated Investor and known as ‘Mr Serenity’ from his depiction in Jack Schwager’s best-selling Market Wizard series. From his ten-dollar a week paper route, to earning enough money to buy his first mutual fund, our conversation spanned a few decades and included: A chemical engineer’s approach to capital markets Commodity futures as the ultimate training ground in the 1970s Black Monday, Dotcom Crash, GFC and Covid – a career shaped by ‘crisis alpha’ A business mindset to asset management, and early struggles as a salesman Retiring from money management, and smiling ever since Taking much more risk in retirement than when he managed funds Improving his techniques and the evolution of his edge Solving the investment puzzle – codify your rules, size trades appropriately, and most important, work on your mental game We dug deeper into the latter point, discussing the benefits of stoicism, meditation, journaling and other techniques that can improve one’s mental game, both in trading and in life. Tom also shared insights into some of the different strategies he runs and parameters he watches closely, as well as his friendship with Eric Crittenden and becoming chairman of Standpoint Funds. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, September 07, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Michael Finke and David Blanchett on New Approaches to Optimizing Retirement
As a growing percentage of Baby Boomers prepare for retirement, they are confronted with the uncomfortable prospect of record stock and bond valuations. Even the most optimistic capital market assumptions suggest the 60/40 portfolio is unlikely to deliver the returns many nest eggs have been built for. To help us get a clearer picture of the challenges and opportunities faced by retirees in the coming decade, we had the pleasure of speaking with Michael Finke (Professor of Wealth Management) and David Blanchett (Managing Director and Head of Retirement Research at QMA). Topics included: The crucial importance of updated and realistic capital market assumptions Lifespan, “healthspan” and the prospects of retirements that last well over 30 years Why ‘probability of success’ is no longer an adequate yardstick for retirement planning How to prepare if we are indeed stuck in a perpetually low interest rate environment The fundamental dynamics of sequence of returns Guaranteed incomes, utility and nuance – true outcome vs probability of failure The difference between a TIPS ladder and an annuity Longevity annuities and optimal spending rates Purpose Investment’s Longevity Pension Fund – combining a tontine, an annuity and a balanced portfolio Analyzing other tailored products We also discussed how any tool, no matter how sophisticated, is still bound to the ‘GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out) problem’, why these problems are not limited to retail investors, a highly effective cake analogy to describe solutions to longevity risk, and much more. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Fri, August 27, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Steve Keen on MMT, Limits to Growth, and Climate Accounting
A casual observer of modern economies might be forgiven for feeling that life is pretty good. And they might reasonably credit neoclassical economic principles for facilitating what appears to have been a great leap forward in global prosperity. At the same time, we are occasionally confronted with news of looming global calamities, which are a product of the exact same policies that brought about this apparent prosperity: irreversible climate change, unprecedented global private credit, global asset bubbles to name just a few. Our guest this week, Professor Steve Keen, has spent a lifetime demonstrating why neoclassical economics is fundamentally self-terminating because it fails to account for realities imposed by the physical world. He walks us through the root issues and describes an economic framework for sustainable growth and more even prosperity. In particular we discussed: The roots of the 2008 global financial crisis and how he predicted it in advance How the 1972 report “Limits to Growth” successfully forecast how the global economy would run headlong into resource boundary conditions Richard Vague’s findings that accelerating growth of private credit has presaged every major financial collapse in the past few centuries How the misguided work of two economists in the early 1990s has led to catastrophic policy and climate consequences The financialization of housing and its impact on home prices, demand for private credit, and a return to feudalism How to incorporate resource consumption and waste into modern economic models The character and potential positive impact of a modern debt jubilee Professor Keen is not a man who minces words. Pour yourself an Irish coffee and settle in for a jarring ride. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, August 12, 2021
Resolve Riffs on Worldly Wines as an Asset-Class with Atul Tiwari
One of the major trends catalyzed by the era of low interest rates and excess liquidity has been the drive towards real assets. Uniqueness and scarcity premiums are paid in assets as diverse as real estate, art, digital assets, and fine wines. With our friend Jason Buck (CIO of Mutiny Fund) as co-host, we were joined this week by Atul Tiwari (CEO of Cult Wines) for a deep dive into the world of investable fine wines. Topics included: Atul’s journey – from reformed lawyer and finance executive to managing liquid, wooden-barreled assets Separately Managed Wines – tailored solutions for different objectives The industry’s original 800 pound gorilla and his point system – reverse-engineering for a single palate Specialization and diversity – the multiple voices currently driving wine culture The surprising existence of wine futures Vintage ranges, consumption windows, storage and handling Value vs growth dynamics, with no easily accessible beta – and some serious negative carry Insurance, free ports and bonded warehouses – geographic diversification and avoiding double taxation Bypassing auctions and buying only when authenticity can be verified Enriched by Jason’s experience as a former restauranteur and Mike’s passion for the subject, the conversation also touched on underappreciated vineyards, great documentaries, and tips for finding appropriately aged wine in restaurants. A special thanks to sommelier Amanda McCrossin (@SommVivant) for joining our live chat (and adding tons of pedigree to Jason’s views). If there was ever an episode that you should consider pouring a glass for, this is it. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Thu, August 05, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Dr. Pippa Malmgren on the Shifting Geopolitical Landscape and a Multi-Polar World
If you’ve been following international news over the past few years, you’ve likely noticed brewing tensions between major countries, even before the pandemic struck. Proxy wars, diplomatic tensions and regional skirmishes have been flaring up across the globe. To help us make sense of these events and how they may impact financial markets, we had the distinct pleasure of hosting none other than Dr. Pippa Malmgren, former presidential advisor, best-selling and award winning author. Her expertise sits at the intersection of geopolitics, economics and technology, leading to a wide-ranging conversation that covered topics such as: Family business – growing up in Washington, D.C. as the daughter of an advisor to four US presidents Why members of the armed forces are operating as if there is already a global conflict at hand Disputed borders, near misses and the risk of miscalculations – skirmishes below most peoples’ radar Thucydides Trap – Rising China, declining US and the possibility of superpowers clashing Political polarization in the US and globally Information bubbles and the search for common purpose The Great Gatsby vs The Grapes of Wrath – two opposing narratives emanating from the same catalyst AI, Quantum Computing and Robotics – a closer look at the 21st century’s battlefield We also discussed the positive and negative effects of the digital age and the exponential increase in available information, the race for natural resources in the Arctic, opportunities and risks investors should be mindful of, and much more. Pippa was on her usual top form and very generous with her time, which made for a fascinating and highly entertaining episode. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, July 27, 2021
The Digital Assets Index Revolution: ReSolve Riffs with Matt Hougan and Dave Nadig
With our good friend Dave Nadig (CIO and Director of Research at ETF Trends) as co-host, we had the pleasure of speaking with Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Investment, which manages the world’s largest crypto index fund. A veteran of the ETF industry, Matt brings institutional gravitas to a nascent sector and has recently authored the CFA Institute’s curriculum guidelines for digital assets. Our conversation included: Crypto as a currency looks highly unlikely to succeed, but as a technological advance it is highly unlikely to fail One of the most interesting problems in the space: very few people actually understand blockchain technology and its multifaceted capabilities The biggest risk in digital assets is behavioral Why market-cap weighted may be quasi optimal – size matters in a sector driven by network effects The delusional notions of Bitcoin replacing the USD The crucial importance of frequently rebalancing a portfolio that holds highly volatile assets A shifting zeitgeist and the typical question – from “will it go to zero?” to “what is a reasonable weight range?” Why UniSwap may be the greatest entrepreneurial story of the past decade We also discussed DeFi (Decentralized Finance), technological updates and the excitement around the Ethereum ecosystem, tax implications and much more. A big thanks to Dave Nadig, not only for the introduction to Matt and co-hosting the episode, but for flexing his healthy skeptical muscles and pushing back at times – it made for great entertainment! Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, July 27, 2021
The Digital Assets Index Revolution: ReSolve Riffs with Matt Hougan and Dave Nadig
With our good friend Dave Nadig (CIO and Director of Research at ETF Trends) as co-host, we had the pleasure of speaking with Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Investment, which manages the world’s largest crypto index fund. A veteran of the ETF industry, Matt brings institutional gravitas to a nascent sector and has recently authored the CFA Institute’s curriculum guidelines for digital assets. Our conversation included: Crypto as a currency looks highly unlikely to succeed, but as a technological advance it is highly unlikely to fail One of the most interesting problems in the space: very few people actually understand blockchain technology and its multifaceted capabilities The biggest risk in digital assets is behavioral Why market-cap weighted may be quasi optimal – size matters in a sector driven by network effects The delusional notions of Bitcoin replacing the USD The crucial importance of frequently rebalancing a portfolio that holds highly volatile assets A shifting zeitgeist and the typical question – from “will it go to zero?” to “what is a reasonable weight range?” Why UniSwap may be the greatest entrepreneurial story of the past decade We also discussed DeFi (Decentralized Finance), technological updates and the excitement around the Ethereum ecosystem, tax implications and much more. A big thanks to Dave Nadig, not only for the introduction to Matt and co-hosting the episode, but for flexing his healthy skeptical muscles and pushing back at times – it made for great entertainment! Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, July 20, 2021
ReSolve Riffs on A Dream Within A Dream: Special situation investing in crypto and beyond
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management. Following our first conversation with David Fauchier (Portfolio Manager at Nickel Digital Asset Management), he insisted that we had to speak with Thomas Braziel, Founder and CIO of 507 Capital, who he claimed was one of the most interesting and independently-minded investors he had met in the digital asset space. With David as co-host, our awesome conversation with Thomas covered topics such as: Why almost all his stories begin with a bankruptcy Opportunities that don’t scale tend to offer the juiciest returns The reason some of these trades work is precisely because they are not scalable His perspective on the Mt. Gox debacle and why he has been buying claims on it for years Claims investing – why many distressed assets fly under the radar of most allocators His unique investment style – if Soros and Buffet had an ‘investment love child’ Different models for claims investing – from complex factoring to ‘loon shot buccaneering’ Getting along with all the players in the space can be a form of alpha We went deep into the inner workings of the space, including how different countries treat personal liabilities in bankruptcies, the contrasts between English Common Law and the US legal system, and what it means to go ‘forum shopping’. Yet another highly entertaining and educational episode and we hope you enjoy it. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, July 20, 2021
Fred Pye on the Fight to Bring Cryptoassets to the Masses
For this podcast we had the pleasure of being joined by Fred Pye, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of 3iQ Corp. He is also the Chairman of 3iQ Digital Holdings Inc. 3iQ is a pioneer manager in the digital asset space, with a variety of Canadian and international mutual funds and ETFs providing access to a variety of cryptocurrencies. On this episode we discuss: The early history of trailblazing unique asset classes The QSC/OSC and Bitcoin – a commodity, a security or a currency Closed-end funds – their advantages for investors Four years, plus 10,000 pages of due diligence Frontier asset classes and client retention The impact of Bitcoin on third world economies The future of the Blockchain We thoroughly enjoyed this episode and hope that you will too. See you next week. This is GestaltU from ReSolve Asset Management where we debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*.
Tue, July 13, 2021
ReSolve Riffs on Onramp Invest, and the Seamless Integration of Cryptoassets and Traditional Investments
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. “A year ago, digital assets were a fringe asset class, the mere mention of which could spell career risk. Now, the career risk is likely if you completely ignore the space.” Global markets are evolving at a blinding pace, and investors often find themselves in a race to catch up with what are sometimes truly tectonic shifts. Nowhere is this more emblematic than in the digital assets realm. We had the pleasure of once again hosting Tyrone Ross Jr, along with his new business partner Eric Ervin – founders of Onramp Invest – for a fascinating conversation that covered: A ‘meeting of minds’ that resulted in Onramp Invest The fast and furious migration of digital assets into the common zeitgeist Trying to seamlessly integrate Onramp Invest into advisors’ workflow – ease of access is crucial Onramp Academy – filling the education vacuum and establishing a foundation for conversations Integrating traditional finance with the crypto world The difference between digital assets and digital currencies One third of the S&P500’s market cap is represented by financial services – the size of the DeFi (Decentralized Finance) Pie The importance of properly anchored risk expectations for a highly volatile and emerging asset class The discussion also included frameworks for understanding both the value of digital assets (think network effects) and their possible place in portfolios (where rebalancing is of paramount importance). Eric and Tyrone shared their screen to walk us through their portal and some of the very useful tools they’ve created for investors. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, June 29, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Demetri Kofinas on Geopolitics, Financial Nihilism and the New World Order
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. “There are two types of truths – one that can be derived from first principles, and another that emerges from a common set of beliefs or a shared narrative.” It was our great pleasure to speak this week with Demetri Kofinas, host of the popular Hidden Forces podcast. We have been keen listeners to Hidden Forces for some time and have admired Demetri’s ability to dive deep into topics as diverse as epistemology, philosophy, global macro and digital assets, to name just a few. Our conversation included: Demetri’s background in media and journey to establishing Hidden Forces Disillusionment after the Great Financial Crisis and conspiracy rabbit holes Is the fracturing US political system beyond repair? The Trump Phenomenon – cause, symptom or catalyst? Hyperrealism, information bubbles and the struggle to find common ground Fiat news and narrative wars Defining truth – the trouble with epistemology Digital assets, financial nihilism and generational divide US, China and Russia – the geopolitical backdrop Demetri also walked us through his process for generating ideas for episodes and cited memorable guests that have helped shape his understanding on many of the subjects we touched upon. It was a truly fascinating conversation and we hope you enjoy it as much as we did. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Tue, June 22, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Chris Schindler on Alpha as a Service, and the Future of Systematic Investing
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. “As the discount rate drives towards zero, it inflates every asset on the planet, including their correlations. Today’s dominant factor is discount rate risk.” Fasten your seatbelt and dial down the speed on your podcast player, because you are in for an epic ride. With our good friend Corey Hoffstein (CIO of Newfound Research) as co-host, we were once again joined by one of the most interesting and thought-provoking guests we’ve had on the show: Chris Schindler (Co-founder, CEO and CIO of Castlefield Associates). This incredibly rich and nuanced conversation touched on themes that included: Who is “on the other side” of trades and investment strategies – persistent wealth transfers that lead to positive utility for both parties, with no “willing losers” Crowded and anti-crowded trades – drilling into the reflexive nature of markets What leads to crowding – structural and behavioral reasons, along with naturally-long players Why alternative risk premia (aka investment factors) have become shockingly crowded, and where investors might find blue ocean in the space Behavior doesn’t manifest in a vacuum – why the efficient market hypothesis is naturally at odds with human synchronization Alpha in traditional investments implies being early and/or different Social media, riot theory and the emergent phenomenon of crowds The ultimate CIO’s dilemma – where do we go from here? The moral hazard trade – governments, central banks, and self-fulfilling prophecies A basket of call options is always preferable to a call option on a basket We also covered some of the underlying reasons for market synchronization, how many steps ahead of the crowds are likely to lead to profitable trades, and much more. This episode contains more nuggets of wisdom than we could count and is certainly worth saving for future reference. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, June 16, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Annie Duke on Biases and Optimal Decision Making in Markets and Life
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. “Life – and investing – are more like poker than chess”. This week we had the honor to speak to none other than Annie Duke, former World Series of Poker champion, author of “Thinking in Bets” and “How to Decide”, and thought leader in the field of decision-making. Co-hosted by our good friend Brian Portnoy (founder of Shaping Wealth), the conversation covered: How planning for a life in academia led her into a successful poker career Applying her background in cognitive science to advance her game – Annie’s “Aha! moment" Not all poker is created equal – tournaments, cash games, iterations, and strategic differences Nature vs nurture – cognitive flexibility and turning a hedgehog into a fox Cognitive Reflection Tests and why they may indicate a larger appetite for conspiracy theories The Dunning-Kruger effect, overconfidence and naïve realism The pervasive influence of the sunk cost fallacy and how we might keep it in check Group think, cognitive laziness and why most people tend to anchor to the first response they hear We also explored the illusion of explanatory depth (and why often the answer lies within the question), the effects of tight feedback loops, and multiple applications for life and investment decisions. Towards the end we caught on to the fact that Annie had actually been incepting us with ideas from her new book all along. We had been looking forward to this conversation for some time and it exceeded our expectations. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, June 09, 2021
Masterclass: Where the Rubber Meets the Road (EP.10)
How we can prepare for every investment scenario. We discuss: Risk Parity and Futures Markets Leverage and Value Diversification Outsourcing Expertise Integrating Asset Classes to Maximize Returns
Wed, June 09, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Brandon Caruana & Brian Tang on Blockchain 3.0 and Fractional Ownership for All
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. This week we were joined by Brandon Caruana and Brian Tang, cofounders of Cayman-based Cartan Group, a consulting firm that specializes in blockchain technology solutions. The two combine for a deep and broad knowledge base of the emerging digital asset space, which made for a fascinating and wide-ranging conversation that included topics such as: The full ‘crypto stack’ – core networks and their multiple layers Block sizes and transaction speeds – features or bugs? Proof of work vs proof of stake – validation methods and relative merits Energy costs, algorithm rules and security Trade-offs between different blockchains and layers – what problems are they trying to solve? Why base layers are always more secure than the stack Why Bitcoin is the asset-equivalent of a duck-billed platypus Asset-backed coins and varying collaterals for stable coins We also discussed the attractive features of the Algorand protocol, Helium and ‘proof of space’, and the generational divide between living in the analog and digital realms. The conversation devolved into philosophical musings on Artificial Intelligence and techno-utopia (and at times dystopia), a future of abundance and the pursuit of passions and callings, which left us with the ultimate question: is AI going to eat, rule or serve the world? Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, June 02, 2021
Masterclass: Liquidity Crashes (EP.09)
How can we manage for scenarios when Liquidity evaporates? We discuss: The mechanics of a Liquidity Shock The Fed and the Long Volatility Gap Diversification, Tail Hedge Protection and Theta Bleed Dennis Rodman and the Long Vol Trade Yield, Growth and Inflation
Tue, June 01, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Robert Cantwell on the Active Management Renaissance & ETFs
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. Our guest this week was Robert Cantwell, founder and CIO of Upholdings, the first hedge fund in the US to be converted into an ETF. His career arc, beginning on the institutional side of the business and then actively seeking out more experience as a business operator, armed him with the flexibility of both mindset and strategy to embrace disruptive new trends. The conversation included: The differences between building a company and managing money Why ETFs, the modern vehicles, aren’t yet wholly embraced as the premium vehicle Size matters – margins vs scalability The future is unconstrained by geography or time-zones (and probably lives on the blockchain) The tradeoffs between a nimble portfolio and tax implications Doing your homework – speak to the five people that know the most about a given company or topic (yes, much easier said than done) Time arbitrage – the best alpha you can have is a longer investment horizon than most market participants We also discussed the time-varying nature of the market’s fear over specific industries and investment categories, seizing the opportunity provided by low rates and volatility spikes, and why the US government’s “business model” is fundamentally flawed. Robert also shared a couple of stories from his experience working with Bono Vox, as well as a take on U2 that you would probably never expect. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Mon, May 31, 2021
GestaltU on Crypto, From its History to the Future, with David Fauchier
This is GestaltU from ReSolve Asset Management where we debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global. The Crypto space is gaining more interest every day. David Fauchier is a Portfolio Manager and allocator at Nickel Digital Asset Management, with eight years of experience in the digital asset space. Prior to joining Nickel, David was CIO of Cambrial Capital, a London based fund of funds, which specialized in sourcing and selecting market neutral managers in the digital asset space. He also sits on the Advisory Board of Global Digital Finance , an industry membership body engaging policy makers and regulators to advocate for industry best practice in cryptoassets. On this episode we discuss: The history of money regimes The cottage industry and new definition of “Market Neutral“ Contrasting allocation criteria for digital vs traditional managers Fund Managers and “The Five Aces“ Paranoid Cowboys The plumbing of fund management The three approaches to Crypto investing Cumulative “IQ Points“ As an addendum, we were able to debrief with David on the evening of the May 19th crypto liquidation event to hear first-hand how institutional traders experienced the event in real-time. This was a wide-ranging conversation as David provided in depth insight into the paths taken during the current evolution of Crypto and where he feels it may lead us from here. We hope you enjoy this informative interview.
Wed, May 26, 2021
ReSolve Riffs on its One Year Anniversary - The Good, The Better and What's Next
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. And in the blink of an eye, a year went by. In the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, we recorded a conversation on the global investment landscape in the wake of competing narratives and heightened uncertainty. The Pandemic Portfolio episode paved the way for what would become ReSolve Riffs, our ‘happy hour’ conversation on investment (and sometimes other) topics. Forty-seven episodes later, we looked back at this first year, the lessons we learned and what we might expect going forward: Global Macro – the all-encompassing theme and ‘elemental soup’ of investment decisions Inflation, reflation and the commodities boom The role of the US dollar Guardians of the narrative Equities – ‘beta vortex’, gamification and continued FOMO markets Volatility, convexity and tail-protection Major trends on the horizon – ESG, VR and the awesome power of blockchain technology We also revisited worthy episodes that might have been overlooked, including those that explored behavioral biases, market psychology or were just downright entertaining. Towards the end, reminiscing gave way to forecasting, as we speculated on the evolving fields of AI and gene-editing and how they might impact the world in the coming years. Thank you for being a part of this incredible first year. We hope it’s the first of many. See you next week. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, May 26, 2021
Masterclass: Extracting Benefits From Anomalies (EP.08)
How can we move from Factor Beta to Alpha? We discuss: Swensen, Yale and aligning incentives The cycles of factor investing Machine learning, the Bias/Variance trade off and Alpha Ensembles Sustainable Alpha through continuous Innovation
Wed, May 19, 2021
Masterclass: Adding More Bets (EP.07)
What additional Sleeves can we add to maximize diversity? We discuss: Style premia, factors, smart beta – the benefits and risks Efficient negative Sharpe ratios Redemptions and “noise traders” Larry Swedroe and anomalies Value characteristics and correlations Flows and Arbitrage opportunities
Mon, May 17, 2021
ReSolve Riffs on Macro Trends and Strategies with Juliette Declercq
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. “The global macro game is far from boring!” Juliette Declercq, Founder & Global Macro Strategist at JDI Research, is not one to mince words, neither on her monthly reports, or on the rare occasions she grants an interview. We had the privilege of hosting her this week for some deeply insightful macro riffing that included: Her bullish case for global equities, particularly European companies Why Big Tech shouldn’t be considered a growth (or long-duration) asset Financial repression as the most urgent macro challenge of our times Inflation, yield curve (no control) and the USD Fiscal policy as the avenue for increased money velocity Crypto Asset – disintermediation, securitization and network effects Banking vs DeFi – the hybrid way forward (and the importance of customer service) Exponential possibilities within the Ethereum ecosystem We also explored Juliette’s investment framework, which takes on a trader’s vantage point – looking no further than the next 12-18 months – and seeks to maximize returns from her best ideas by “allowing winners to run”. It was an extremely engaging conversation, drawing many questions from the audience. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Wed, May 12, 2021
Masterclass: Sticking Points (EP.06)
How do we eat Sharpe ratio and meet financial goals with a maximally diversified portfolio? We discuss: Using leverage in a robust and diversified portfolio to preserve diversification while achieving target returns Why “credit” is not a distinct asset class and does not increase diversity Integrating your bets The repercussions of levering up What makes Risk Parity hard
Tue, May 11, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Jim O’Shaughnessy on Education, Ingenuity and Techno Optimism
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. Jim O’Shaughnessy (chairman and co-CIO of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management) is a Wall Street legend. He is one of the “OGs” of quantitative investing, a best-selling author, and more recently also turned podcaster with his Infinite Loops channel. Jim joined us for a roller-coaster of a conversation that covered: The beauty of marrying science fiction with real science Interviewing people you look up to, and why “no man is a hero to his valet” A fast-changing world requires non-linear thinking Aspirational leadership and nurturing self-confidence Acquiring knowledge, mental models and the future of education How openness to failure can set us up for success Unrelenting optimism – buying the call option on mankind We also discussed the future of the wealth advisory industry, which Jim is confident will be highly dependent on client customization, and we could have easily gone on for a few more hours. But Jim lost his connection towards the very end, mid-laugh (a memorable snapshot for those of you also watching), leaving Adam, Mike and Richard to riff by themselves for the last few minutes. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week. *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Wed, May 05, 2021
Masterclass: The Rebalancing Premium (EP.05)
Traditional yields are low, so how do we meet our funding obligations? We discuss: Rebalancing highly diversified portfolios to generate 3%-5% in excess returns The Diversification Ratio and maximally diversified portfolios The increased value of maximally diversified commodity sleeves Special advantages for non-institutional investors Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.
Tue, May 04, 2021
Eric Crittenden on Combining Global Trend & Risk Parity for All Weather Performance
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global. As is often the case with sharp and curious minds, our guest this week traveled a meandering route through his career. While studying meteorology and public health in university, Eric Crittenden (CIO of Standpoint Asset Management) stumbled into an economics class and fell in love with complex dynamic systems. He then joined a family office that was uniquely focused on levering into technology companies in the run up to the Dotcom Crash, a debacle that strengthened his views on the importance of diversification and risk management. We discussed: From a purely cartesian market view, to recognizing the crucial role played by psychology and behavior Early appreciation for the “elevator down, escalator up” type of risk How to give investors both what they want and need His whitepapers, especially “Does Trend Following Work on Stocks?” Why it’s harder to raise capital for diversified strategies, but also harder to get fired Liquidity weighting versus risk weighting Why collecting a risk premium means you are on the “wrong side” of skew Disaggregating term structure from price appreciation in returns – why carry pays Our conversation also covered the benefits of signal generation that combines different phenomena, why in theory, investors want diversification and risk management (but not so much in practice), and much more. A widely entertaining episode, with no words minced and even a moment of collective catharsis. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Thu, April 29, 2021
Feature Engineering, Strategy Mining, Economic Value and The Profitability Rule with Michael Harris
Michael Harris started trading rates and derivatives 30 years ago. He is the Founder of Price Action Lab and the developer of the first commercial software for identifying parameter-less patterns in price action 20 years ago. In the past 10 years he has worked on the development of DLPAL, which is a software program designed to identify short-term anomalies in market data for use with fixed and machine learning models. In this wide ranging interview we discuss: Back testing and generating trading signals on an Atari Console Loss Compression and Forecasting Data Mining – microfeatures, micropatterns and trend following The hit rate, payoff ratio, profit factor and the Profitability Rule Data Mining Bias and Data Snooping The Seven Weekly Strategies The direction of probability The conversation was interesting and enlightening as Michael provided new insights into emerging financial technologies. We hope you enjoy it. Thank you for listening.
Wed, April 28, 2021
Masterclass: Balance (EP.04)
Diversity of investments only produces “diversification” if asset classes are held in proper balance. We discuss: The 60/40 portfolio and why it’s not diversified or risk-balanced The advantages of Global Risk Parity Portfolios How leverage helps to preserve diversification Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.
Tue, April 27, 2021
ReSolve Riffs on Lifting and Low Risk Investing with FinTwits Lawrence Hamtil
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global. This week we were joined by Lawrence Hamtil, founder and principal at Fortune Financial Advisors, author of their popular blog, as well as an active member of the FinTwit community. His power lifting hobby and contrarian nature permeate his writing and investment philosophy, which made for a great conversation that included: Why you can’t fire a cannon from a canoe – the importance of building a solid foundation Discipline, preventing major injuries/drawdowns and proper benchmarking – investment wisdom drawn from weight-lifting “We must all suffer from one of two pains: the pain of discipline or the pain of regret. The difference is discipline weighs ounces while regret weighs tons” – Jim Rohn Investment approach shaped by the turmoil of the Great Financial Crisis Tobacco, defense contractors, and other “less desirable” sectors– benefiting from narrative-induced externalities Low beta, minimum variance and inflation risks We also delved into his barbell approach for equities, sector allocations and their cyclical natural, ESG, regulatory moats, and how to avoid value traps. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Wed, April 21, 2021
Masterclass: Preparation Before Prediction (EP.03)
Investors are often prone to “home-country” equity bias and other heuristics that leave them under-exposed to the world’s many diverse opportunities. We discuss: The importance of global asset class diversity Ray Dalio and the “All Weather Portfolio” Making portfolios resistant to inflation and growth shocks Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.
Tue, April 20, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Rob Carver on Smart Portfolios and the Evolution of Systematic Trading
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global. Although most of us like to think that we will rise to the occasion when the moment comes, various studies show that the vast majority of people will sink to the level of their training in the heat of battle. A systematic response to dynamic scenarios, removing one’s emotions from the equation, has been the standard approach in the military for millennia. In the world of investing, rules-based methodologies remain a contentious topic, even though a majority of the most successful asset managers are quants. Rob Carver (Independent Systematic Researcher and Author) knew early on that his investment career could only take the ‘systematic path’. He joined us for a great conversation that covered: His early days on a trading floor, which felt like trying to solve Sudoku puzzles with a dozen angry men screaming at him Drawing inspiration from Thomas Bass, author of The Predictors Nuances across different rules-based methodologies Allowing intuition to seep in – when and how to sin The chasm between managing 3rd party capital versus your own money The evolution of his systematic thinking – the humility and beauty of ensembles Model fitting, automation and optimization – going down a quant rabbit hole Rob also detailed some of his experiences during major market selloffs, particularly in the Great Financial Crisis and more recently in the Covid Crash. We also established that systematic investing just isn’t sexy enough for Hollywood, and we’ll likely never see Keanu Reeves starring in “The Covariance Matrix” (h/t Breaking the Market). Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week
Wed, April 14, 2021
Masterclass: Decision Making (EP.02)
Philip Tetlock’s research on the qualities of Super-forecasters explains why forecasting is hard and how diverse models and systematic thinking can help close the gap. We discuss: Improving predictions by regularly updating data The Brier Score and why it really matters Why larger samples permit more accurate short term predictions The difficulties with the “Long Now” narrative Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.
Tue, April 13, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Ted Seides on Capital Allocators
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global. Our guest this week was none other than Ted Seides, host of the popular Capital Allocators podcast. Ted began his career under the tutelage of endowment legend David Swensen at Yale University Investments, then went on to found Protégé Partners, investing and seeding small hedge funds. This career arc gave him a unique perspective into the decision-making processes of multi-billion-dollar institutions, as well as the portfolio managers on the receiving end of their allocations. After almost 200 podcast episodes and a recently released book – Capital Allocators, How the world’s elite money managers lead and invest – it’s hard to overstate the breadth and depth of Ted’s institutional “inside baseball”. We covered: The range of disciplines that are leveraged by some of the world’s most successful investors Why capital allocators are essentially interviewers (and can make for good podcast hosts) Repetition, pattern recognition, and separating the wheat from the chaff Governance and the constant tussle between CIOs and investment committees Negative screening, triangulation and reference checks – above and beyond due diligence Performance chasing, familiarity and other biases – why institutions often resemble retail investors Leveraging the work of Annie Duke, Gary Klein and Michael Mauboussin We also discussed the difficulties of high information asymmetry, behavioral fortitude, and cognitive diversity. Ted even shared a few interesting anecdotes from his time working with Swensen. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Wed, April 07, 2021
Masterclass: Stewarding Long-Lived Wealth (EP.01)
Anyone who is responsible for stewarding wealth, from a high net worth person, to a family office, to an investment firm, to a pension plan. We discuss: Long term preservation of wealth for 30, 50, 100 years Building an investment “house” to weather all storms The difference between earning wealth and protecting it long term Clearing the “high confidence” bar Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.
Thu, April 01, 2021
Raoul Paul: Crypto-Assets, the India Stack, and the Coming Digital Renaissance
Interest in crypto assets continues to accelerate, attracting investors from all walks of life and from all over the world. In this episode, we are joined by Raoul Pal, CEO and Founder of Real Vision Group, and Global Macro Investor, and one of the earliest and most enthusiastic exponents of the crypto-asset space. Raoul has many years of hands-on experience in both global macro and crypto assets, and offers critical insights on where investors should focus to maximize profits in both the near and long term. The top three investment themes for the next five to ten years Globalization, technology, aging demographics and the ‘Attention Economy’ The miracle of the “India Stack” ‘Network Effects’ and behavioral incentives A new parallel financial system Fractional ownership of almost everything Incorporating Crypto into portfolios Raoul shares in detail why he is so confident that crypto-assets and parallel financial systems will revolutionize our ability to conduct commerce safely and efficiently in the near future. In the end, he leaves listeners with a much-needed feeling of optimism about the road ahead. Hosted by Adam Butler and Mike Philbrick of ReSolve Global.
Tue, March 30, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Breaking The Market on Ergodicity Economics and Geometric Rebalancing
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. “Drink once every time someone says "rebalancing", twice for "geometric", thrice for "ergodicity". Leverage these amounts by 2.7x for the full Kelly experience”. This was the opening salvo from our guest, the once anonymous author of the popular Breaking the Market Blog, now revealed as Matt Hollerbach (founder of Pronghorn Analytics). With a background in mechanical engineering, he has applied his analytical and mathematical background to challenge a variety of once-sacred investment beliefs, generating thought-provoking articles that have prompted wide-spread discussion. Our conversation included: Disillusionment after the Great Financial Crisis and delving deeper into the entropy of markets Geometric returns and rebalancing metrics, and why they matter The case for a faster and more frequent update of a portfolio’s underlying assumptions Efficient Frontier versus Geometric Frontier Similarities and Differences between Risk Parity and Matt’s Geometric Rebalancing approach Ole Peters, ergodicity and why stock markets should be “stochastically efficient” Adapting to the vol of vol Stress versus Strain Margin of safety and Kelly-optimal bet-sizing Matt also explained the underlying mechanics of his strategy, and shared some of his favorite return metrics and other insightful concepts borrowed from various disciplines. If you’re planning on grabbing a drink to play along, make sure it’s not too strong. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Tue, March 30, 2021
Black Swans and Gray Rhinos with Michele Wucker
In this episode, we are joined by Michele Wucker, author of the international bestseller “The Gray Rhino” and the new book “You Are What You Risk”. She coined the term “gray rhino” for obvious, probable, impactful risks, which we are surprisingly likely but not condemned to neglect. The gray rhino has moved markets, influenced central banks, guided risk managers and business strategy, and made headlines as an important frame for the ignored warnings that let the Covid-19 pandemic get out of control. The metaphor was inspired by work early in her career when she sounded a warning about Argentina’s debt crisis, then reprised that warning with an early and successful argument for a pre-emptive haircut in the Greek debt crisis. She is founder of the Chicago-based strategy firm Gray Rhino & Company, speaks frequently to high-level global audiences, and is cited often in leading global media which recently have included The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and the Washington Post. We discussed: Five reasons decision-makers have for not addressing problems Making the “devil’s advocate” more prominent in the decision-making process Individual biases and how they define your “risk fingerprint” The “risk compass” and how it can help manage client risk tolerance The “Glass Cliff Phenomenon” and corporate crises The balance of left tail and right tail risk in group/family dynamics Thinking less deterministically and more probabilistically to get better outcomes Little “hacks” to help manage risk Michele also shared real-life anecdotes of how using these methods have helped corporations/boards and families manage risk tolerance differences. She stresses repeatedly the usefulness of knowing the “risk fingerprint” of every member of the group, leading to significantly better outcomes. We hope you enjoy this far-reaching and entertaining discussion.
Tue, March 23, 2021
ReSolve Riffs 0n the Crypto Melting Pot & Energy Consumption with Greg Foss and Magdalena Gronowska
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Interest in cryptoassets, and specifically Bitcoin, has skyrocketed in the last few years. From it’s humble beginnings Bitcoin has grown into a behemoth, leading some to wonder if it will eventually become a contender for the role of global reserve currency. Our guests for this episode were Greg Foss and Magdalena Gronowska, early adopters of Bitcoin and part of the team that launched the very first Canadian crypto ETF on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Our conversation covered: How the bond market wags the equity tail Why Bitcoin can become default protection on a basket of sovereign credit as national debts explode What Bitcoin is currently disrupting, from energy usage to gold, from the FED to the banking system What is money The “Honey Pot” Why now is a better time to invest in Bitcoin than 2016 Spinoffs from Bitcoin mining, from energy to technology The solution for “Fiat Ponzi” The discussion was enthusiastic, thorough and sometimes downright funny. We hope you enjoy this episode and look forward to you joining us again next week.
Tue, March 16, 2021
ReSolve Riffs on Hedging Inflation with Optimal Commodity Portfolios to Maximize Diversity & Growth
This is ReSolve Riffs – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. As governments in the U.S, Europe, Japan and elsewhere embrace aggressive fiscal stimulus measures in the wake of the global Coronavirus pandemic, investors are growing concerned that this may unleash a sustained inflationary impulse. As investors dust off their inflationary market playbooks, many are realizing portfolios may need to be significantly restructured. This week ReSolve’s own Portfolio Managers, Mike, Rodrigo, Richard and Adam, wrestle with the underlying macro dynamics that might pave the way for inflation, and discuss how to position portfolios to manage these risks. In particular, the team focuses on how commodities are designed to preserve real wealth in inflationary environments, and how to build optimal commodity portfolios to address these risks: The many paths to inflation, and the role of MMT and debt monetization Importance of diversity and balance (or heterogeneity ) in the design of commodity portfolios Why existing commodity indices and products are designed for capacity, but sacrifice heterogeneity and balance How optimal commodity portfolios may be expected to deliver a rebalancing premium to rival the equity risk premium, duration premium, and credit risk premium This jovial discussion complements the whitepaper, “ Optimal Commodities ” and listeners are encouraged to download and read the paper as well. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Tue, March 09, 2021
ReSolve Riffs: Macro with Julian Brigden, on Inflation, Bubbles and the Dollar (EP.67)
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. In 1971, US president Nixon suspended the convertibility of the dollar to gold bullion, terminating what was known as the Bretton Woods system, which also kept other major currencies pegged to the greenback at a fixed exchange rate. Since then, the US dollar has experienced three major cycles of appreciation followed by weakening, all of which have greatly impacted asset prices around the world. Our guest this week is Julian Brigden (Co-Founder & President: Macro Intelligence 2 Partners), a macro strategist who is particularly focused on secular USD trend and their ramifications across global markets. Our conversation included: His general framework, favorite macroeconomic indicators and putting the pieces together Why the ISM is a fantastic metric to gauge activity (Portfolio) size matters – tactical vs strategic calls Parallels with the 1960s, financial repression and how this may impact the US dollar Central banks’ independence in check, and the growing role of fiscal policies Inflation – expectations of the coming commodity bonanza and knock-on effects across the globe Rates, bubbles and the outlook for equities Gold vs silver vs copper – portfolio hedges under secular inflation We also discussed liquidity crunches, the role of the Fed, the wealth gap and alternative paths to overcoming the current enormous debt overhang. As long-time followers of Julian’s work, we had been looking forward to this episode for some time, and it exceeded our expectations. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Tue, March 02, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Eric Balchunas: Crypto, Active ETFs, ARK Insanity, and the Beta Vortex
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Almost three decades since the very first launch, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have grown to a multi-trillion-dollar segment of the market, with more than seven thousand spread across the world. The US market is home to approximately 30 percent of them, spanning the passive/index-tracking, actively managed and thematic categories, not to mention a handful of more exoteric niches. We drew on the expertise of our friend Eric Balchunas (Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg) for an update on the current state of the ETF. We discussed: The hottest tickets in town – the ARK family and Cathie Wood Soap opera drama – why haven’t crypto ETFs been allowed yet Why thematic ETFs are actually a closet-momentum play Value as the most intuitive factor – emulating Graham’s ‘Intelligent investor’ The Beta Vortex, how passive distorts price discovery Biases and the narrowing gap between institutional and retail investors The answer to 99 out of 100 questions in markets – blame it on the Fed Eric also gave us the breakdown in AUM for each segment of the market, as well as his estimate for the current size of the entire passive investment complex. This was a wide-ranging and very entertaining conversation, with great input from the audience (especially from our friends Brian Portnoy and Dave Nadig – thanks guys), and we also learned there is such a thing as “conversational alpha”. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Fri, February 26, 2021
Métodos cuantitativos para una cartera de inversión de 100 años
In this episode, Rodrigo Gordillo, Rafael Ortega and Ignacio Villalonga from Zona Quant discussed quantitative methods in Spanish.
Thu, February 25, 2021
ReSolve Riffs on: Struggling Doesn't Make You Less of a Man; It Makes You Human, with Matt Zerker
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Over the last few years, the topic of mental health, once taboo, has been recognized as a crucial component of our general well-being. Yet depression, anxiety and other ailments of the mind remain largely a silent epidemic, and the last twelve months have been particularly hard because of the loneliness many have endured due to the lockdowns. Our guest this week was Matt Zerker, former Portfolio Manager at ReSolve and now Founder & CEO of tethr . Our conversation included: Matt’s life journey struggling with depression, losing a close friend, finding a support group and ultimately landing on a path towards his true calling No man is island – we all yearn to belong ABC – always be compassionate Resisting, suppressing, blocking – it’s much healthier to let go Why men find it harder to admit they are struggling, especially in finance Physiological responses, emotional interpretations and feedback loops How to shorten the reaction times of negative responses and build new (and more positive) neural paths We also discussed the role of psychedelics, Jason’s experience with Trading Tribe, and how to detach one’s ego from destructive narratives. This was a deeply personal conversation and a true homecoming for Matt, and we hope it can help to spread the word on the importance of mental health in our community. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Mon, February 22, 2021
Mike Green: The Fourth Turning and Reimagining the American Dream
“I think there are a lot of people who feel a genuine frustration at how the system has behaved, and more importantly about how there has been this dynamic of privatized gains and socialised losses. The way I would resolve it is, you know that’s wrong. And yet it seems that the models or the tools that are being used give us no option to that. And at the core, what that’s telling you is that the models are a mistake…” Mike Green In this podcast, Mike Green and I discussed political philosophy. Well, I fumbled around trying to articulate my frustrations, objections and questions and Mike managed to read between the lines and carry the show. By way of background, I’ve been frustrated with a few things since the late 1990s. Most of my frustrations relate to how regulators, governments and central banks have repeatedly undermined the capitalist process of creative destruction by bailing out imprudent risk-takers. We got a taste of this in 1998 when the Fed bailed on LTCM, and a belly-full of it in 2008 when they changed the rules on mark-to-market accounting and bailed out the banking sector. Since then central banks have supported asset prices at every turn, with increasingly direct intervention, culminating in direct purchases of corporate credit in March of 2020. For the most part, Mike and I are frustrated about the same things: regulatory capture and a fundamental misalignment of political power and incentives, the compound effect of which is responsible for most of the forces that are tearing America apart from within. However, where my experience has festered and soured, Mike has been diagnosing the problems and seeking solutions. Viewed through the prism of Mike’s philosophical framework, our current situation is a function of decades of policy choices rooted in a misguided faith in Calvanist meritocracy, amplified by a fundamental misapprehension that goes to the very heart of economics. These themes converge as we explore: How treating the economy as an ergodic system inevitably leads to accelerating boom-bust dynamics How central bank policy is largely motivated by a policy choice that has placed the social safety net in the hands of the corporate sector Why a policy of offering guaranteed, non-dischargeable loans to children to pay for higher education is criminally irresponsible, and creates a cascade of corrupt signaling mechanisms and mal-incentives, with obscene repercussions MMT, the Kalecki equation and how policy can be structured to narrow the wealth gap Ergodicity economics, the Farmer’s Fable, and the myth of meritocracy The importance of the Fourth Turning as a time to dismantle corrupt institutions and rebuild in a new image Disentangling skill from luck, and designing a redistribution policy that socializes windfall gains to support distributed entrepreneurship and economic dynamism Creating a system
Wed, February 17, 2021
ReSolve Riffs all things Macro with Lyn Alden MMT YCC BTC
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. This week we had the great pleasure of hosting none other than Lyn Alden (founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy), one of today’s most prominent macro strategists and thinkers. Her background in both engineering and economics endows her with a diverse skillset and unique perspective, which helps her (as well as her readers and clients) make sense of the extremely challenging environment investors are currently facing. This wide-ranging conversation covered topics that included: Her investment framework – the integration of top-down and bottom-up Japanification – the good, the bad, the ugly, and some unexpected diamonds in the rough in the Land of the Rising Sun The weaking US dollar, its multi-year cycles and global investment implications Currency wars, economic tradeoffs and game theory dynamics NASDAQ & Bitcoin – the unbeatable portfolio of late – recency bias, and why it always pays to be diversified in the long run Fiscal and monetary policies, both pre- and post-pandemic, and what an end game might look like Lyn also delved into her views on precious metals, possible inflationary outcomes and effective hedges, and of course, Bitcoin. Her ability to explain complex topics clearly and concisely was on full display, which made for a deeply enlightening and entertaining episode. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Wed, February 10, 2021
Razvan Remsing: Inside the Black Box at Aspect Capital
Today’s conversation is with Razvan Remsing, Director of Investment Solutions at Aspect Capital. Aspect is a multi-billion dollar London based systematic investment manager founded by one of the original founders of AHL. Razvan’s role is at the intersection of investment strategy research, product development, and client management, which positions him to comment on themes ranging from client engagement and communications through specific details about the underlying mechanics of Aspect’s strategies. We start by discussing the unique challenge of communicating with clients about what to expect with systematic strategies. Razvan emphasizes the importance of helping clients gain intuition about what’s happening inside the “black box” so that they know generally what to expect in different market environments. Ideally, clients will be sufficiently informed about the strategy they’ve invested in so that they may be disappointed with results from time to time, but never surprised. The conversation then migrates to an exploration of what happened to Aspect’s strategies in 2020. Razvan observes that 2020 was especially interesting because we basically lived through a full market cycle in just one year (and arguably in the span of just a few weeks). He asserts that the defining factor for success or failure in 2020 was the speed of your strategy. Strategies with short forecast horizons and holding periods had the opportunity to successfully navigate the major reversals in the year, while slower moving strategies were at a major disadvantage. We also discussed the poor performance of liquid alternatives and especially the major Style Premia products over the past few years. Razvan is unpersuaded by the view that poor performance was due to overcrowding. Rather, he attributes poor performance to an over-emphasis on classical “value” and credit type strategies, which are low Sharpe strategies to begin with. Low Sharpe strategies should be expected to endure long painful drawdowns. The conversation also ranged into Machine Learning, the value of alternative data from capital flows, sentiment, options surface, and more esoteric sources, and how strategies informed by some of these series responded more quickly to the seismic shifts experienced in markets in 2020. Razvan shared some rare insights, for example into differences in trading and sizing exposures to commodities versus financials. This was definitely one of our more technical conversations, with the rewards you’d expect from the ability to go deep into topics with a true craftsman.
Mon, February 08, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Nancy Davis about Convexity Trading, Inflation and IVOL
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. An almost USD 2 trillion fiscal bill is moving ahead in Congress, while breakeven rates rose above the 2 percent mark for the first time since 2018 (with no signs of relenting). It is no wonder that inflation is now top of mind for investors. Uncertainty isn’t limited to whether it reawakens after almost four decades, but how it might manifest and how investors should protect themselves. This week we riffed with Nancy Davis (Managing Partner & CIO of Quadratic Capital Management) who manages the popular IVOL ETF, covering topics such as: Her early days as a prop trader for Goldman Sachs, earning her stripes trading derivatives What is IVOL: a combination of TIPS and interest-rate options Using cash to manage duration What is implicit in the shape and slope of the yield curve The risk of outliving one’s means – the importance of protecting against inflation ‘Backing up the truck’ when volatility is so low Linear vs asymmetric – not all derivatives are created equally Nancy shared her screen throughout the conversation and walked us through her general framework, including what she believes are some of the most relevant features to monitor when navigating the inflation and rates landscape. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Sun, January 31, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Bill Fleckenstein – Do All Roads Lead to Inflation? This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. With governments pressing on with huge fiscal and
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. With governments pressing on with huge fiscal and monetary expansion, fears of inflation have once again resurfaced. The spectacular rise in the price of grains and other raw materials, some by as much as 30% last year, have added fuel to these concerns. To discuss this inflationary macro backdrop we welcomed Bill Fleckenstein (President of Fleckenstein Capital & co-host of the End Game podcast series) to the show. A former dedicated short seller, this episode was particularly timely in the wake of the historic short squeezes that took place this week and the ripple effects across markets. Our conversation included: Running a short equity fund, adapting to shifting circumstances and ultimately returning capital to shareholders The role of short selling in markets and the disruptions caused by Fed policies r/WallStreetBets, GameStop et al – a brief anatomy of a surreal week Deflation and Japanification – why the Fed is cornered Why inflation is the most important variable to watch for in the coming months MMT, taxation and breaking the social contract Bill also expressed his views on how portfolios should prepare for what he believes is an inevitable outcome, but also entertained scenarios that might cause him to change his thesis. In the end, “in a social democracy with fiat currency, all roads lead to inflation”. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Tue, January 26, 2021
Speaking Strategies in Spanish – Rodrigo Gordillo interviewed by Ignacio Villalonga on Rebalancing, Diversification and More
In this episode, Rodrigo Gordillo had the pleasure of being interviewed by Ignacio Villalonga from Zona Quant, a quant blogger who is part of a growing community of quantitative investors from Spain. In this inaugural Spanish speaking episode, Rodrigo fielded a series of questions sourced from the Spanish speaking FinTwit community that covered everything from proper global diversification and how to minimize data mining, to the benefits of the Rebalancing Premium, and much more. Zona Quant: https://www.rankia.com/blog/zona-quant
Tue, January 26, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Patrick Ceresna - Making the Big Picture Work for You
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. This week we riffed with Patrick Ceresna of Big Picture Trading, fellow podcaster and co-host of the popular shows Macro Voices and The Market Huddle. His trading framework combines a seasoned, top-down macroeconomic perspective with deep knowledge of technical analysis and prolific use of options to express his market views. Our conversation included: Living in the trenches – the differences between trading and investing Stress-testing ideas and the humility required to make a living as a trader Sharpening macro hypotheses through weekly conversations with bright minds Technical analysis – an incomplete yet powerful tool Analyzing money flows and sentiment indicators The flexibility and asymmetry offered by options Sizing positions and the importance of timing – don’t fight the trend Gold, Bitcoin and Giffen goods – market psychology at play in the era of easy money A great communicator, Patrick shared stories of his formative trading years and drew a compelling analogy between the dotcom euphoria and today’s “everything bubble”. He also brought along a few charts to walk us through his methodology and some of the macro themes he is currently focused on. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Tue, January 19, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Harley Bassman, the Convexity Maven
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Convexity is one of those concepts that even if you understand it, explaining it to someone can still be hard, especially for a layperson. Unless you are the Convexity Maven, in which case it is second nature and you can apparently explain it to your mom. We had the pleasure of hosting Harley Bassman, creator of the popular MOVE Index, for a wide ranging and truly entertaining conversation that covered topics such as: Sharpening the blade - the value of working with people that challenge your ideas Calculus for everyday use – it’s actually simpler than most people think Policy responses (and mistakes) following the Great Financial Crisis His predictions for Treasury rates, MMT, and what indicators might cause him to change his mind Millennials, Baby Boomers, demography and inflation How fiscal and monetary tools might affect the US dollar How Risk Parity might navigate the coming years Gold as a currency Favorite themes and trade ideas for this environment Harley also brought a slide deck and walked us through some interesting charts as he described his investment thesis, so you might want to check out the video version of this episode. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Tue, January 12, 2021
ReSolve Riffs with Alex Chalekian on What It Takes to Build a World-class Wealth Management Business
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Like virtually all segments of the investment industry, the financial advisory business has undergone significant shifts over the past two decades. Gone are the days where a pasteurized, assembly-line approach with catchy branding is enough for a thriving enterprise. In the digital age, investors – like everyone else – want authenticity. They seek a personal touch. They yearn for a real connection. Alex Chalekian (founder and CEO of Lake Avenue Financial) lives by these principles. In our conversation, we explored: His journey: from studying to become an accountant, to investment entrepreneur Allowing others to learn from your mistakes and trying to extricate one’s ego Understanding the unique skill set you and your team members bring to the table The importance of proper communication: staying true to your message while navigating the regulatory landscape The appropriate digital forums and the difference between them Building and giving back to your community Alex also shared some of the investment themes and new projects his team is excited about, and there was even time for a brief discussion on the hottest investment topic of the day – Bitcoin and the world of crypto. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Wed, December 23, 2020
ReSolve Riffs on 'Bubbles, Manias & Fraud' with Jamie Catherwood
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. 2020 has been a year like no other in living memory. Though the global pandemic has obviously been the most important story of the year (and quite possibly of a generation), stocks have rallied to new all-time highs, companies have raised record amounts of capital and the technology sector has minted a handful of TRILLION-dollar firms. Though some investors find this fitting with the ‘new normal’, others are convinced this is the ‘mother of all bubbles’. To make sense of these unusual times, there’s nothing like a good dose of historical perspective. For the final show of the year, financial historian Jamie Catherwood (O'Shaughnessy Asset Management & Investor Amnesia ) joined us for a great conversation that included: The origins of capital markets and its countless manias The South Sea Bubble, John Law and the Mississippi Company Why the history of the Dutch Tulip Mania has been widely exaggerated Charlie Munger’s three I’s – innovators, imitators and idiots How wars invariably lead to periods of low interest rates (and eventually bubbles) Yield-seeking in the 18th and 19th century – and plenty of sovereign debt defaults Jamie shared numerous interesting anecdotes that seem to draw clear parallels to the current environment – which has been described by some as ‘the golden age of fraud’. You can find more of these in his new course . Happy Holidays! Thank you for watching and listening. See you in January.
Tue, December 15, 2020
ReSolve Riffs with Brian Moriarty - With Yields So Low, Where Do You Go?
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Most investors have 30 - 50% or more allocated to bonds. With U.S. equities at nosebleed valuations, investors need to wring the most efficient returns out of every sleeve of their portfolio. Brian is the Associate Director, Fixed-Income Strategies, Manager Research at Morningstar so we focused on the fixed income sleeve of portfolios. Specifically, we wanted to know how investors can generate the returns they need in a near-zirp world. Brian offered great color on the flawed construction of credit indices, and why this opens the door for outperformance by active credit managers. We discussed the most durable credit strategies and what looks especially attractive now. Brian also filled us in on the differences between different types of structured credit, such as CLOs, CDOs and CMOs, and how to approach the sectors at the moment. Run don't walk to learn what to do with all those bond funds in your portfolios!
Mon, December 07, 2020
ReSolve Riffs on "Everything You Need To Know About Saving For Retirement" with Ben Carlson
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. As life expectancy increased throughout much of the past century, so did the importance of saving and growing one’s nest egg for retirement. Though most who retired during the last 40 years enjoyed a massive tailwind from stocks and bonds, those that switched from accumulating to drawing down their savings between 2000 and 2002 suffered a rude awakening. Currently, there is widespread concern that typical stocks-and-bonds heuristics will not suffice. Ben Carlson (Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management) has given this a lot of thought. He joined the ReSolve crew to talk about his recently launched book, covering topics that included: Investment principles as a distant and foreign language outside of finance: the importance of narrative to bridge the comprehension gap (which can often be a chasm) The dual role of financial advisors: fiduciaries and behavioral psychologists Incentives to create and nurture a savings habit: mindset is key The myths surrounding risk tolerance: willingness vs ability Savings rate, lifestyle and portfolio returns: understanding the levers we can actually control A crucial yet often overlooked factor: sequence of returns CPI inflation vs the inflation that individuals experience: the blind spot for most portfolios We also discussed how remaining active into an older age is correlated not only with a longer lifespan, but also with prolonged health and mental acuity. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Mon, November 30, 2020
ReSolve Riffs with Meb Faber on Free Money, Unrealistic Expectations & the Short View
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Our guest this week was none other than Meb Faber (co-counder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management), a well-known quant and prominent member of the FinTwit community. In addition to being an asset manager, he is an entrepreneur and venture capitalist, not to mention host of a popular podcast – and therefore an entertainer at heart. We enjoyed a wide ranging conversation including topics such as: The ‘mental gymnastics’ of contemplating ideas that are likely being ignored by most investors Crowded vs contrarian trades Preference falsification in polling, the role of inertia and the endowment effect North America’s impossibly complicated retirement systems vs Australia’s superannuation Financial education, incentives, and the enormous room for policy improvements We also discussed the importance of properly framing conversations, especially in the realm of policymaking (Universal Basic Income vs Freedom Dividend), some of Meb’s recent venture capital investments and a whitepaper that’s coming down the pipe. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Thu, November 26, 2020
Alexander Mende: Risk Managing the Risk Managers
Today’s conversation is with Alexander Mende, Senior Investment Analyst and Head of Investment Research at RPM Risk and Portfolio Management in Stockholm, Sweden. RPM is an alternative investment firm, focusing on directional investment strategies, specifically Managed Futures and Global Macro. Alex is responsible for portfolio management, quant and macro research, manager screening and selection at the firm. We spend the first few minutes discussing the experience of living with COVID-19 in Sweden before moving onto the technical discussion. We explore the evolving role of managed futures and trend following both in terms of client expectations and how managers have adapted strategies to deal with the current macro-environment. In contrast to many similar firms, RPM takes an active approach to manager risk exposure. Alex describes how the firm manages risk both “horizontally” – by changing relative manager allocations through time – and “vertically” – by scaling exposure to the overall portfolio in response to proprietary models. Alex “opens the kimono” on two of RPM’s most useful indicator suites, the CoMaSe model designed to identify conditions that may lead to coordinated market selloffs; and the MDI model that measures the aggregate “trendiness” of market conditions. We walk through case studies to better understand how RPM uses the tools in practice and their potential value-add. Alex is clearly a passionate, no-nonsense quant and it’s clear RPM thinks about the problem in a novel way, with commensurately attractive results.
Tue, November 24, 2020
ReSolve Riffs with Logica's Wayne Himelsein on “Skew Baby”
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. The year that saw the fastest decline, followed by the steepest recovery in market history has left one topic top of mind for most investors – volatility. Though down from its eye-watering spike in the first quarter, the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) has remained significantly higher than in previous years, and not without good reason. The ongoing pandemic, a bifurcated and fragile economic recovery, the most polarized US presidential election in living memory, continued geopolitical saber-rattling between China and the US, and the list goes on… We had the pleasure of hosting one of the foremost volatility experts in the industry – Wayne Himelsein (President and CIO of Logica Advisors) – for a deeply insightful conversation that covered: His background in the industry, and how he met and partnered with Mike Green Why “absolute” doesn’t mean steady returns – the lumpy nature of positive convexity Why Logica loves gamma and how to “scalp” it Unknown unknowns, unrealized vol and protecting against events that are by definition, outside of your sample distribution The difficulty in sizing a long-volatility strategy within a broader portfolio Wayne also delved into his investment process in some detail, including how Logica measures and adapts to market phase-shifts. You should probably just stop what you’re doing and press play. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Wed, November 18, 2020
ReSolve Riffs on Maximizing the Rebalancing Premium
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. As US equities and bonds continue their apparently unstoppable rally, their expected return over the coming years grows vanishingly small, Especially if markets are faced with anything other than the goldilocks environment of growth, deflation and abundant liquidity that has ruled the past 12 years. Readers of our research (as well as any student of history) will know that stocks and bonds can go through prolonged periods of synchronized underperformance, while Risk Parity can navigate virtually any form of inflationary or growth shock. But when executed properly, with periodic rebalancing, Risk Parity can benefit from a substantial tailwind, as we showed in our recent paper – Maximizing the Rebalancing Premium . Our discussion of the rebalancing premium and its implications for investors included: The traditional thinking on rebalancing is likely outdated – adjusting for drift is not enough Defining the rebalancing premium and how it can be maximized The benefits of rebalancing for different implementations of Risk Parity Why buy-and-hold investors are paying this premium Risk Parity vs the ubiquitous 60/40 The debate also delved into the importance of reducing volatility drag to smooth out the path portfolios take and improve geometric returns. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Fri, November 13, 2020
ReSolve Riffs on Coaching, Longevity and Investing in Yourself with Dr. Kevin Jardine
ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day
Mon, November 02, 2020
ReSolve Riffs on the Global Landscape with The Macro Tourist (Kevin Muir)
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. In an upside-down market it’s hard to know which way is up. Many investors rely on Kevin Muir, otherwise known as the Macro Tourist, to help them navigate these uncharted waters. Kevin is a pragmatic macro analyst and trader who is focused on trading markets as they are, rather than how you might wish they were. This means being conscious of your own ideologies and biases and actively setting them aside so you can see with clear eyes, and adapt your thinking in response to shifting data and insights. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) was the center of gravity for the conversation. Kevin describes his journey of discovery and how the underlying mechanics reflect the actual plumbing of the global economy. He explains that Sovereigns that borrow in their own currency and are able to print money are not constrained by deficits. Rather, Sovereign borrowing acts as a direct credit to the private sector. As such, governments are constrained by whether the aggregate productive capacity of the economy can absorb the demand from the private sector that results from their borrowing. Inflation arises when demand exceeds this productive capacity. As a result, long-term prosperity depends on how quickly a country can increase its productive capacity, since this rate will dictate how quickly the government can create wealth for the private sector without creating inflation. MMT is often embraced by those on the left, who believe it provides an imperative for spending on government programs. Kevin explains that deficits can also arise from cutting taxes, so it is a bipartisan theory. We address several concepts including: How does MMT impact the role of confidence in a currency? What would happen if Japan canceled the debt held by the Bank of Japan? What was the impact of fiscal cuts during the Obama administration? How do we direct spending to areas of the economy that are more likely to achieve capital formation? How do we implement MMT without exacerbating the already large wealth gap? If MMT is coming, what is the highest convexity trade? Mike, Rodrigo, Richard and Adam stick around after Kevin leaves to discuss MMT in a broader context and raise even more questions. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Tue, October 27, 2020
ReSolve Riffs on Bitcoin and the Evolving Blockchain Landscape with Matthew Edwards and Rob Furse
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Even the term used to describe this asset-class is loaded with controversy. Some say cryptocurrency is a misnomer, since Bitcoin and its lesser known brethren can neither be considered a medium of exchange nor a store of value. Rob Furse (co-founder & president of Echelon Wealth Partners) and Matthew Edwards (CEO & CIO of Dalpha Capital Management) would certainly disagree with the latter. We invited them to discuss this and other topics including: The role of crypto (currencies or assets) in investors’ portfolios Can bitcoin really be thought of as ‘digital gold’? How to position these assets using both legacy and newer investment frameworks What the endorsement of well-known money managers does for Bitcoin Regulatory hurdles and the road to institutional acceptance We also debated the current global macro backdrop and why ideas like MMT will likely push an ever-growing number of investors to venture into the crypto space. There may also have been some brief speculation regarding the identity of the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto, author of the original Bitcoin whitepaper. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Mon, October 19, 2020
ReSolve Riffs on a Post-Factor World
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Before you begin, we highly recommend that you first watch this short video , which serves as a foreword and sets the table for this episode. After enjoying many years of immense popularity, factor investing (also known as alternative risk premia or smart beta) is suffering from significant underperformance, both across asset-classes and especially within security selection. While some factors have fared worse than others, there’s no doubt that the space as a whole is enduring an intense and prolonged winter. The team at ReSolve has been thinking deeply about this theme for the past two years, and this episode expands on the framework we have developed to understand the current environment for factors – and for the generation of sustainable alpha more broadly. Topics include: The origins of factor investing and why they used to work The adoption curve – similarities and differences between investment edges and new technologies Reflexivity and the “hard problem of investing” Value investing – why the most intuitive risk premium has suffered the most How changes in markets’ microstructures and the macroeconomic backdrop affect these dynamics We also offer ideas on how investors might seek sustainable edges going forward and how to position their portfolios to this new reality. This is an ongoing and open-ended discussion, and we certainly welcome your thoughts and feedback. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Thu, October 15, 2020
ReSolve Riffs with Phil Bak – The Entrepreneurial Mindset
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. It is said that creating a job for yourself is always better than getting one. Whoever said that probably never lived through the trials and tribulations of being an entrepreneur. But some people just can’t help themselves. Phil Bak is one of these serial entrepreneurs . He joined us to riff on topics such as: Building businesses from a young age and knowing when to sell them The recent sale of his company and his next project Overcrowding and saturation within the ETF space Seemingly endless opportunities in fintech Insurance landscape ripe for massive disruption We also discussed the current state of smart beta strategies, their significant underperformance and how investors should think about sustainable edges in the coming years. We will be further exploring this topic in our next episode. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Wed, October 14, 2020
Marat Molyboga: The Trend is Your Friend
Today’s conversation is with Marat Molyboga, Chief Risk Officer and Director of Research at Efficient Capital Management. Marat is a soviet trained mathematician who achieved his Masters in Applied Mathematics in Moscow, and holds an MBA in Finance from University of Chicago, a CFA, and a PhD in Finance from EDHEC business school. He has authored or co-authored 20 published papers. Efficient specializes in building multi-manager investment solutions for institutional investors with a particular focus on managed futures. Marat describes the fundamental building blocks in the qualitative and quantitative framework that Efficient uses to select managers, and form and monitor portfolios over time. In addition, we explore four papers in detail on topics like combining carry with trend, how the makeup of Chinese commodity markets impacts risk-premia for Chinese CTAs, the potential benefits of short-term trend signals, and how novel portfolio construction techniques may help investors construct more resilient portfolios of CTAs. Marat has a unique perspective on commodity trading advisors and listeners will learn about how institutions utilize and evaluate CTA portfolios, and specific techniques that can drive improvements in trend strategies and portfolios of CTA funds.
Mon, October 05, 2020
ReSolve Riffs on Anti-Bubbles, Volatility and Gold with Diego Parilla
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Ever lower interest rates and debt-fueled growth have been the major driving force for asset price appreciation over the last four decades. Many have now come to believe that the system is close to a breaking point, teetering at the edge due to a virtually unpayable debt overhang that has created multiple asset bubbles across the world. To make sense of the current macroeconomic backdrop and where we might go from here, we had the pleasure of hosting Diego Parrilla (Managing Partner at Quadriga Asset Managers). Topics included: His previous life as an energy analyst and his thesis on The Energy World is Flat Bubbles and Anti-Bubbles Central banks, monetary expansion and inflation – how to boil a frog False diversification, correlations breaking down and constructing true balance Soccer teams can’t depend on 11 strikers – how his strategy creates positive convexity to become an effective goalie for a diversified portfolio His concerns over inflationary pressures in the coming years and his asset allocation approach reminded us of our own Risk Parity framework. While the topic proved initially contentious, we eventually found common ground in the principles that will help drive positive outcomes for investors in the coming years. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Tue, September 29, 2020
ReSolve Riffs: Risk Parity with RPAR ETF creators Alex Shahidi and Damien Bisserier
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. It is, without a doubt, the most logical starting point for any portfolio that seeks both global diversity and risk balance. Preparation before prediction . First, do no harm. Yet there is a wide range of ways to structure and deploy Risk Parity – as always, the devil is in the details (for a deeper dive check out our recent whitepaper ). We had the pleasure of speaking with Alex Shahidi and Damien Bisserier (co-founders of Evoke Wealth and ARIS Consulting), creators of the popular RPAR ETF, on topics that included: Their history and journey before joining forces Multiple definitions and iterations of Risk Parity The consistent mispricing of global diversification benefits (why Risk Parity works) Why the investment industry is wired to overweight prediction and underweight preparation Behavioral hurdles and the real struggle with FOMO Of course, it wouldn’t be a true Risk Parity debate without addressing the role of bonds in the current zero-bound environment and the importance of duration adjustments on bond holdings, as well as the role of currencies and different ways of obtaining exposure to commodities. A true Risk Parity primer. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Mon, September 28, 2020
David Berns: Modern Asset Allocation for Wealth Management
Today’s conversation is with David Berns, an emerging thought leader in asset allocation and behavioral finance, who is pushing the boundaries on how to best measure real-world behavioral preferences and build optimal portfolios that actively incorporate this extra information. We open the conversation with a discussion of his involvement in the design and launch of three new ETFs, which seek to deliver an investment experience that addresses both traditional mean-variance preferences, and also accounts for real investor behavioural and cognitive biases. We then discuss core themes from his new book, “Modern Asset Allocation for Wealth Management”, which marries advances in portfolio optimization with a scientific approach to measuring real investment risk preferences. I was impressed with David’s thinking about fundamental investment principles and driving ambition to go beyond traditional portfolio formation techniques to account for loss aversion and reflection, and higher moments of the return distribution. It’s clear David genuinely cares about client satisfaction with their investment experience and is advocating for ways to treat clients as unique individuals with novel preferences and goals. This discussion has something for everyone from advisors to portfolio managers to planners and even for end investors.
Tue, September 22, 2020
ReSolve Riffs with Jason Buck on Slaying Dragons and Tail Risk
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Every time equity markets experience a major selloff, investors’ attentions are drawn to the handful of strategies that actually benefitted from the event. So-called crisis alpha comes in many flavors and iterations, which further complicates the allocation decision. Our friend Jason Buck (CIO of Mutiny Fund) sought to solve this problem a few years ago. He joined us for a conversation that included: The different kinds of risks to portfolios and how to protect against them What actually constitutes a tail event Moneyness, sizing and using wrinkles to reduce volatility drag Finding an ensemble of strategies that doesn’t bleed money outside of major drawdowns Rebalancing – a true and underappreciated source of return We also discussed how to position a tail protection strategy (or an ensemble of them) within an overall diversified portfolio and what form that portfolio might take. The difference between time-series and ensemble probabilities was also debated – and the term ergodicity may have been thrown around a bit. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Mon, September 21, 2020
Corey Hoffstein: Liquidity Cascades
Many traditional value or factor based investors have been scratching their heads for the past few years, wondering whether a shift in fundamental dynamics may have permanently altered the way markets behave. Corey Hoffstein has been wondering the same thing, which prompted him to spend the last several months speaking to experts in options trading, market microstructure, and the hidden effects of passive index investing about how these forces may be reshaping the underlying market ecosystem. These conversations and subsequent analyses led to the publication of Corey’s latest whitepaper on Liquidity Cascades, where he seeks to triangulate impacts from several potential paradigm shifts to identify what’s driving price action in today’s markets. We cover all the major themes from the paper and discuss practical implications and key risks for investors over the next few years. Corey shares some new charts and analysis, and elaborates on key figures and themes from the paper that you won’t want to miss. As soon as Corey published the paper I couldn’t wait to do a deep dive with Corey just like this. And as usual, the conversation did not disappoint. Please enjoy this conversation with Corey Hoffstein on Liquidity Cascades.
Mon, September 14, 2020
ReSolve’s Riffs on Market Conditions, ETFs and Tech Stocks, with Dave Nadig
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. The advent of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) brought about one of the largest and most transformative trends in the investment landscape. With legions of enthusiasts and no shortage of detractors, ETFs also ignited the so-called passive investing revolution, upending the industry and sparking controversy. We could think of no better guest than our friend Dave Nadig (CIO and Director of Research at ETF Trends and ETF Database) for this conversation, which covered: Understanding that not all passive investments are created equal There’s much more discretion than meets the eye – even in the S&P 500 index Price-discovery distortions – (possibly) on its way to a new equilibrium The coining of a new concept – Reflexivity Inflection Point The Rise of ESG and why the category has been outperforming in 2020 The discussion heated up as we debated who gets to define “E”, “S” and “G”, and semantics converged to a better definition – values-based investing . A wildly entertaining episode made even better by the live questions and comments. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Thu, September 10, 2020
Brian Portnoy - Underwriting Well Being
Brian is the founder of Shaping Wealth and author of two books, The Investor's Paradox and The Geometry of Wealth. We spoke about the connections between wealth and happiness, and the myriad complications that distract people from what really matters. On our journey we touched on the importance of setting constructive expectations, how to navigate the relative nature of happiness, how the human brain interfaces with social media and markets, and how the advisor role is extending in the direction of holistic financial wellness. Brian's diverse background in manager selection, fund management, and investor education gives him a unique perspective on how humans connect with money and each other.
Tue, September 08, 2020
ReSolve’s Riffs with Ben Hunt: The Three-Body Problem
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. In the digital age, we are all suffering from varying degrees of information overload and must lean on trusted guardians of the narrative to make sense of it all. Our good friend Ben Hunt (Epsilon Theory), one of the most reliable guardians , joined us this week for a thought-provoking conversation that included: How he witnessed and reported on the COVID pandemic story unfolding well ahead of most people and his current efforts in helping to supply medical masks in the US Why mainstream media keeps getting it (mostly) wrong Staying true to your wolfpack and avoiding the temptation of adding too much cheese to a story – even though it might greatly amplify your reach Gresham’s law and how fiat news often crowds out truly important stories Wallstreet as a highly effective narrative machine that keeps driving investors to buy like clockwork Ben’s alter-ego Neb took charge when describing the system as dominated by crony capitalism and ultimately broken, while his B.I.T.F.D. mantra got plenty of pushback from the South-Americans across the screen. Towards the end Ben returned and shared some very cool images from his own Narrative Machine, focusing on the stock that has dominated headlines this year. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Mon, August 31, 2020
ReSolve’s Riffs on Oh Behave! Misbehavin’ with Market Shrink Dan Egan
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Behavioral finance has been at the forefront of investing for many years now, yet it is still largely misunderstood and rarely applied to investors’ actual habits. Our good friend Dan Egan has been pushing this frontier, and in this conversation we covered: The fallacy of trying to predict what makes us happy and how that applies to investing Why understanding our biases does not provide immunity against them Formulating incentives and nudging investors towards habits that can benefit them Generalizations vs uniqueness across investors Imagining who is trading against you – and what they might know that you don’t We also discussed the importance of narrative and the study that suggests stories often outweigh the experiences themselves. A true session of psychoanalysis for investors! Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Mon, August 24, 2020
ReSolve Riffs with Michael Green on Market Reflexivity
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. His hypothesis on the adverse effects of passive investments in market behavior has catapulted him into the spotlight, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Earlier this year he became one of our most popular podcast guests; this time Mike Green (Logica Capital) returned with guns blazing. In a less formal and less constrained happy hour conversation, we discussed: Logica’s long-volatility strategy and use of options for different exposures What an end game might look like if the drive towards passive continues unabated Inflation, interest-rates and MMT How Buffett sometimes plays a version of liar’s poker with the market Covid, the economy and a possible paradigm shift A golden age for impostors and the benefits of being too big to fail The conversation branched into demographics, philosophy and history, including a re-examination of the 1970’s stagflation – for which Mike offered an alternate interpretation (and broke an icon or two along the way). Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Tue, August 18, 2020
The Rise of the Social Media Advisor: How to Build a Wealth Business by Being Your Genuine Self
Although technology has revolutionized many aspects of our lives, there are still some industries that resist change and professionals who are certain that the old way is the right way . Some believe this applies to investment advisors. They most likely have never met Shiraz Ahmed. He is the quintessential modern advisor, with whom we had the pleasure of riffing on topics such as: Building and improving your career by observing your peers (and learning from their mistakes) Finding a niche of people that you can really connect with instead of cold calling The value of conveying your true self and embracing a genuine narrative Navigating the ambiguous compliance and regulatory environment when engaging on social media His expertise in US-Canadian cross-border investing We also discussed Shiraz’s motto of paying it forward, how he lives by that rule, and what he actually means when he says an advisor needs to put his money where his mouth is.
Mon, August 10, 2020
ReSolve's Riffs on Accessing China's Markets and Investors with Bobby Schwartz
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. While the theme was the Chinese investment landscape, this episode can also be described as the Bobby Schwarz show. From his early days as a floor trader in Chicago, through his experience making movies in Hollywood, then finally founding RCM Alternatives, Bobby recounts countless memorable stories including: The high-octane environment of life on a trading floor, including heart and panic attacks Verbal exchanges with big names in Hollywood (including John McClane aka Bruce Willis) and creating a multi-factor model to gauge movie success that is used to this day Returning to Chicago to build a new business and adapting to an industry in constant flux Venturing into China, learning the culture and understanding their values Big risks and even bigger opportunities The candor and quality of Bobby’s narrative produced meaningful insights and great humor, making this one of the most entertaining episodes of our Riffs to date. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Tue, August 04, 2020
ReSolve's Riffs on Monetary Trifecta - Money Supply, Inflation and Asset Prices with Jeff Weniger
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. For the last 12 years, the Fed and other major central banks have exerted overwhelming influence and power over investors’ behavior and capital markets. Since the pandemic began, governments have been forced to step up and unleash a fiscal tsunami to help ailing economies during the deepest recession in living memory. To make sense of this convoluted macroeconomic environment, we invited Jeff Weniger (WisdomTree) for a wide-ranging conversation that included: Birthrates in western countries and their impact on growth Fiscal and monetary policies The power of narrative in driving animal spirits Inflation and the velocity of money Mega cap stocks and other market distortions We also discussed how families have adapted to shelter-in-place measures and the implications on the jobs and housing markets. Jeff shared data and multiple anecdotes, which made this both highly informative and very entertaining. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Wed, July 29, 2020
Lars Kestner: The Intrepid Quant (EP.29)
Today we interview Lars Kestner, a Managing Director at a European investment bank. Over his 20+ year career on Wall Street, he has led teams that have managed derivative risk across a vast range of market environments. He is the author of Quantitative Trading Strategies , a cutting edge text on systematic trading. Lars designed and employed his first systematic trading system to trade 30yr bond futures before entering college. We discuss two papers that Lars released on his website, satquant.com, in the last few weeks. His paper “ Preferred Portfolios ” describes a novel framework for assembling strategies with wildly different characteristics into a coherent and resilient portfolio. We discuss how to sort strategies into Boosters, Defenders, Diversifiers and Selectors based on a novel quantitative method. We then go on to examine the theoretical limits of diversification, and the importance of aligning strategy composition with investor psychology and goals to minimize the potential for abandonment. We also discuss a brand-new paper called “ Replicating CTA Positioning: An improved method ”, which proposes a method to peer into current CTA portfolio positioning. This is of value because CTA trend-followers are often the marginal buyer in markets at certain points. The ability to identify concentrated risk positioning and/or potential turning points may offer investors a unique edge. Lars is clearly passionate about using quantitative methods to maximize investment results in the real world and he offers a variety of valuable nuggets for the perceptive listener. Please enjoy my conversation with Lars Kestner.
Tue, July 28, 2020
ReSolve's Riffs on Nepotism and Return Chasing in Institutional Manager Selection with Brian Portnoy (EP.28)
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Despite the common understanding – and ubiquitous disclaimers – that past performance is not indicative of future returns, it is well documented that performance chasing can be almost considered a fundamental law of capital allocation among institutional and retail investors alike. It is also an open secret in the industry that well-connected managers are much more likely to receive institutional allocations than obscure ones. To discuss and shed some light on a recent whitepaper that explores these topics, we invited our good friend Brian Portnoy to bring his vast experience as a hedge fund analyst and allocator to bear. Throughout the conversation we cover: How to determine whether a manager has skill The evolution of alpha through time Many ways of defining alpha The role played by familiarity bias Principal-agent problem in capital allocation It was a far reaching discussion with many layers, and once again much improved by the many questions and comments we received throughout the live stream. Keep ‘em coming! Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.
Fri, July 17, 2020
Dan Egan: Market Shrink
Dan Egan is the Directory of Behavior Science and Investing at the online advisor, Betterment. In launching this rather unique career, Dan levered a Masters degree in Decision Science at the London School of Economics into a role as Behavioral Finance Specialist at Barclays Wealth in London before moving on to Betterment. With 15 years operating at the cross-section between human behavior and markets he is one of the world’s foremost experts in this field. To kick off the discussion I wanted to know: What do investors really want? Not what they say they want, or what economists say they should want, but what their day-to-day behaviour says about what they actually want in practice. And moreover, how can advisors avoid disappointing them? We also spent a while discussing the idea of nudging. I wondered about the type of nudges that Dan’s research suggests might be helpful and how he thinks about navigating the fine line between nudging and manipulation. Lastly we discussed how Dan’s understanding of human behavior factors into Betterment’s portfolio construction and lessons learned along the way. Dan is a data junkie and his unique perch has allowed him to gather critical insights into how humans interact with markets. I came away with some practical insights applicable to almost every facet of our investment business. Please enjoy my conversation with Dan Egan.
Mon, July 13, 2020
ReSolve's Riffs on Navigating an Impossible Market with Chris Schindler
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. To help us make sense of this market we invited Chris Schindler back to discuss: Why the next 10 years are likely to be very challenging and different from the past 10 years Why investors should set very low return expectations for virtually every major asset-class The power of recency bias and lottery-ticket (wishful) thinking The role of commodities and how to use them effectively in a portfolio Portfolio construction as a source of both risk and possible alpha The dangers of mispricing risk of private investments and assumed negative correlations We also discussed how Risk Parity is a) disastrously mis-specified by most investors and b) held to a much higher standard than almost any other investment approach, even though it is still the most coherent starting point for a global diversified portfolio. Thank you for watching and participating with your questions. See you next week.
Thu, July 02, 2020
ReSolve's Riffs on Cryptocurrencies - Digital Gold or Millennial Bubble
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate current and most relevant themes in the world of investing. Among hot and contentious topics in investing, cryptocurrencies certainly rank top of the list – including their designation as a form of currency . From a techno-libertarian experiment, Bitcoin, its peers and particularly the blockchain technology that underpins them, have morphed into a global phenomenon that promises to revolutionize finance itself. Our conversation with our guests Tyrone Voss Jr (401 / Altruist / Human Advisor Podcast) and Shaun Cumby (CIO at 3iQ) included: How cryptocurrencies can be thought of within the context of a portfolio Digital Gold vs Long-dated call options on a store of value The generational factor between believers and detractors Cold vs hot storage Stable coins and crypto’s money market This was a true learning experience for us, enhanced not only by our guests’ knowledge of the space but also the many questions we received. Special thanks to Shaun and Tyrone for joining us, and to everyone that tuned in and participated in the discussion. See you next time.
Sat, June 27, 2020
A hedge fund manager and a sports bettor walk into a bar…. When Sports Betting comes to Wall Street
With the popularity of sports betting personalities entering the investing world we thought it would be timely to bring an expert sports handicapper to discuss the similarities and differences between these highly probabilistic domains. Our guest for this conversation is Steve Merril of ProSportsInfo.com. Steve has been a professional sports handicapper and betting analyst for over 24 years and can be seen and heard every week on numerous radio and TV shows across the United States. We discussed the history of sports betting going back to its early days in, of all places, Chicago! It seems all things handicapped, whether futures markets or sports books, originate in Chi-Town. Other topics include the three keys to winning long term in sports betting, the sharps versus the squares , steaming the line and the differences in discrete events in the world of sports versus the continuous distributions in financial markets. If you are a fan of books like Bringing Down the House: The Inside Story of Six MIT Students Who Took Vegas for Millions or Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, you’ll definitely find this conversation fascinating. Enjoy!
Fri, June 26, 2020
Breaking the Market
Today’s guest produces the Breakingthemarket blog, which exploded onto the scene in spring of last year, spewing shrapnel at traditional beliefs about investment objectives and portfolio construction. Borrowing key concepts from Ed Thorpe and the Ergodicity Economics community, Matt - who would like to remain anonymous for now – builds portfolios that focus on maximizing geometric returns by combining uncorrelated investments with frequent rebalancing and appropriate exposure informed by the Kelly criteria. We dig into how Matt’s background in mechanical engineering informed his approach to the problem, why he thinks most investors are upside-down in their investment approach, and why his strategy of Geometric Rebalancing may be a compelling strategy for all markets. We dig deep into portfolio concepts like how he estimates returns and other portfolio inputs, the relative importance of errors in means and covariances, and how to manage portfolio exposures over time. We also discuss the principles of ergodicity economics and some broader implications for policy and the wealth distribution. I’d been looking forward to this for months and it did not disappoint.
Wed, June 24, 2020
Andrew Miller: Renaissance Advisor
This week we interview Andrew Miller, CIO of Miller Financial Management. Andrew’s passion is at the intersection of investment management and financial planning, and he has extremely novel perspectives on both domains. We trace Andrew’s background in structured credit and alternatives and map this experience to his current framework for thinking about diversification and sources of risk and return. We also discuss how Andrew’s views on diversification have evolved over time and how he thinks about factor strategies and alternative premia, including how he applied trend-following principles to factor exposures. Andrew spends a lot of time on engineering optimal asset location strategies and shared some compelling facts about how some fairly simple steps can improve expected returns by almost 1% per year. It’s rare to find someone with deep theoretical and fundamental understanding of nuanced investment topics who has found very practical ways to deliver the potential value of these strategies to clients on the ground. There’s something here for everyone!
Tue, June 23, 2020
ReSolve's Riffs on Leverage over Beverages: The Risk/Reward of Vol Targeting (EP.21)
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. Most pension plans and other institutional investors with long-term liabilities are faced with an enormous mismatch between the return assumptions in their actuarial models and the combination of sky-high equity valuations and rock-bottom bond yields. Some have chosen to address their funding gaps by adding leverage to their portfolios. Topics of this include: Different types of leverage – Implicit vs explicit, recourse vs non-recourse Hidden leverage in private investments Volatility targeting – pro-cyclical vs counter-cyclical Leverages towards concentrated vs diversified investments and market fragility The conversation was greatly enhanced by a series of questions from our friend Mike Green (Logica Capital) – who we hope will join us in the coming weeks. Special thanks to Mike and others that have participated with their questions. Keep them coming and see you next Friday.
Wed, June 17, 2020
ReSolve’s Riffs on Gold vs Treasury as Disaster Protection
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. The recent pandemic-led selloff has once again highlighted the importance of having ballast in portfolios to deal with extreme equity volatility – and ultimately protect investors from disastrous outcomes. This week we discussed: Whether bonds can continue to provide protection given rock-bottom yields If gold will outshine other safe-haven assets in the current environment The tradeoffs between sovereigns and the shiny metal The current economic environment and the possibility of a paradigm shift The team also explored how both bonds and gold should fit into a risk parity framework where investors do not necessarily have to make a choice but can rather benefit from owning either one – or both – at the right time. Thanks for watching and see you next week.
Fri, June 12, 2020
Cat of Nine Tails: How Mutiny Fund Harnesses Ensembles to Hedge Many Tails at Once
Jason Buck is a founding partner of Mutiny Fund, an asset management firm with a vision to make high-quality tail hedging solutions available to a wider community of investors. Their fund aggregates managers with different tail-hedge styles, including options strategies, VIX relative value, and short-term trend traders to manage tails of all shapes and sizes. We cover: Why tail risk is best managed through the use of ensembles The so-called "Dragon Portfolio" as a risk-parity solution that adds an extra dimension of risk How to think about sizing tail-hedge strategies in portfolios How to make hay while the sun is shining while remaining positioned for a storm How to manage the behavioral challenges of strategic allocations to tail-risk strategies Jason brought a lot more to this discussion than just a pitch for tail hedges. It's clear he's thought deeply about the investment problem in general and has a clear vision about how tail hedge strategies can fit into a broader portfolio structure. You'll definitely want to check this one out.
Wed, June 10, 2020
Risk Parity is the answer: What was the question?
Adam and Pierre focus their discussion on diversification as a combination of "diversity" and "balance". Diversity is about holding investments that are designed to thrive in very different market environments, and for different reasons. Balance has the objective of ensuring that investments are all able to express their unique personalities. Risk parity is the ultimate expression of diversification. Sadly, many investors are misguided about the concept, and focus on the wrong things. We drill to the heart of the idea and illuminate why a risk parity portfolio should be the starting place for most investors.
Mon, June 08, 2020
ReSolve’s Riffs – On Value Investing
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. We were joined this week by our friends Wes Gray (Alpha Architect) and Tobias Carlisle (Acquirers Funds) to discuss value investing, its prolonged winter and how it has fared in the current environment. This broad conversation includes: How value has historically outperformed growth, despite appearing to lag most of the time The mental – and emotional – fortitude required to stick with it during tough periods Active share – disaggregating value from broad equity beta Difference between harvesting Value in Long-Only vs Long-Short strategies Raw yields vs Excess yields Separating Value from Quality The group also compared different value metrics against portfolio turnover and capacity, their relative cheapness with respect to the market as well as versus themselves over time. Please enjoy this episode and join us live next week!
Sat, June 06, 2020
Investing in the Upside Down: Logica’s Michael Green Describes Why Passive Flows Corrupt Market Structure and How to Profit
In this wide-ranging discussion, Logica's Mike Green describes a mosaic of ways to "seek out a straddle", and reveals new data and analysis to help flesh-out his thesis on the growing importance of systematic passive flows to U.S. stocks. Mike makes a persuasive and disturbing case for how a series of regulatory changes driven by economic and political objectives have corrupted the equilibrium and signaling mechanisms of modern markets, and offers a framework, with specific examples, on how to position for a market environment that few currently expect. Adam challenges Mike on a number of conjectures but Mike rises to the occasion with novel analysis and counter-intuitive interpretations bolstered by a variety of charts, tables, and illustrations. Trust us – this episode will challenge almost everyone's beliefs and is not to be missed.
Wed, June 03, 2020
ReSolve's Riffs on Crouching Bull, Hidden Bear: Second Chance for Investors?
This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on Youtube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day. On our second episode, we invited our good friend Corey Hoffstein (Newfound Research) to analyze the roller-coaster experienced by equity investors in the past 3 months and discussed: the disconnect between the equity rally and the pain in the broader economy the companies and sectors that have led the charge how Trend signals in equities have evolved in the recent period how investors might position themselves going forward We also address the big question in most investors’ minds: should they jump back into the stock market and avoid additional FOMO or take this second chance to embrace a more diversified and adaptive approach? Watch – or listen – below and join us live next Friday!
Tue, May 26, 2020
ReSolve Riff's on The Great Tail Protection Debate
Join us for our inaugural episode of the “ReSolve Riffs” series where the team will go live on Youtube every Friday at 3pm over cocktails to discuss topics that are in the immediate zeitgeist of the investment world. In this episode we cover the very heated tail protection debate. The team discusses the challenges with different types of tail protection implementations including: the difficulty in sourcing the right strategy the challenges of different fund structures, whether diversification alone is enough to manage tail risk and, the benefits of tail ensembles. We also cover the behavioural challenges at all levels of investor sophistication that make it so difficult to stick with tail protection as a strategic long-term allocation, and make a case for the type of investor that might benefit from these approaches. We hope you enjoy the episode and that you’ll join us to riff live with the team!
Wed, April 22, 2020
The Pandemic Portfolio - Risk Parity, Convexity, and Multi-Asset Factors in Extreme Markets
How long will the recession last? How deep will it be? What are the long-term implications for the economy, markets, and society? The global pandemic has ushered in a period of extreme uncertainty and investors are left with too many unanswered questions and afraid for their portfolios. Where do we go from here? In this episode, the ReSolve team begins with an examination of some of the macroeconomic narratives that may drive capital markets for the coming months and years. But since these future paths are all plausible – and some quite compelling – we then provide a framework to deal with such a wide range of possible outcomes. This conversation is meant to help investors navigate these uncharted waters and how to think about portfolio allocations in extreme market conditions. Be sure to check out the slide deck – which we reference throughout the episode – as well as some useful links below. Links https://investresolve.com/inc/uploads/pdf/The-Pandemic-Portfolio-Gestalt-University-Episode-13.pdf https://investresolve.com/adaptive-asset-allocation-global-risk-parity-with-macro-factors-lp/ https://investresolve.com/blog/demystifying-risk-parity-with-realvision-and-90-years-of-history/ https://investresolve.com/webinars/ce-demystifying-risk-parity-90-years-history/ https://investresolve.com/podcasts/resolve-12-days-of-investment-wisdom/
Thu, March 19, 2020
Corona Free Ben Hunt on Gestalt University - The Narrative Machine
The idea that mainstream media could, to some degree, pursue the agenda of powerful groups might have been dismissed as conspiracy theory in the past. But over the years much has changed in how we perceive and interpret the flood of news and data-bits that compete for our attention each day, forcing us to seek out ways to distill the noise in search of something closer to the truth. Gestalt University’s latest guest has emerged as one of these trusted sources. His Epsilon Theory portal is one of the most respected and widely read information outlets in financial media. A prolific writer with a background in applied statistics and game theory, his acute understanding of history and behavioral analysis have equipped him the right tools to shed light onto the real forces that guide The Narrative Machine. He is, of course, Dr Ben Hunt. A departure from our usual conversations, Adam, Rodrigo and Ben discuss how information is shaped, delivered, and ultimately drives the narrative that underpins capital markets and the global zeitgeist. They discuss how this has led the current political and financial climate to deviate from the dominant paradigm of recent decades, and how this affects portfolios and risk management. Please enjoy our latest episode with Ben Hunt.
Sat, March 07, 2020
Corey Hoffstein- Strategy Construction: Why Simple is Fragile
This episode of Gestalt University could not be timelier, having been recorded two weeks prior to the current market correction that began in late February 2020. The discussion of fragile versus robust approaches is especially important given how recent volatility has led simpler tactical strategies to signal a complete shift away from equities and towards cash. This in turn has left practitioners second-guessing the wisdom of their indicators and hesitant to pull the trigger. For this fascinating conversation we bring none other than Corey Hoffstein of Newfound Research. Corey has lived by the “risk cannot be destroyed, only transformed” dictum, which has guided the core of his investment philosophy across three axes of diversification – sources of risk, process and time. Our similar thinking (including recent warnings of the dangers involving simple DIY tactical heuristics) led to an extensive research collaboration and ultimately to co-launch the Newfound / ReSolve Robust Equity Momentum Index (following requests from our FinTwit brethren). Our discussion with Corey goes deep into the benefits of building strategies based on Ensemble Methods while considering the impacts of cost, the role of timing and luck, and ways to increase one’s confidence in a back-test. We also examine the behavioral benefits of strategy execution using an array of signals as opposed to binary approaches. A plateful for investors of all stripes, especially practitioners.
Wed, January 29, 2020
Chris Schindler: The Alternative to Alternative Risk Premia
Chris Schindler’s journey really took him all the way down the rabbit hole. He joined the Asset Liability Group at Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan in 2000 and soon became one of the founding members of the newly formed Tactical Asset Allocation Group. Most of his 18 years at Teachers’ were spent exploring and developing quantitative tools and strategies to optimize portfolio allocations. An early insight regarding the importance of maximizing investment breadth (or unique independent return drivers) drove his research towards the world of CTAs and Risk Parity, eventually becoming one of the pioneers in Alternative Risk Premia (ARP). There’s a good reason why this one runs a bit longer than previous episodes. We discuss the recent explosion in index-investing (“there’s no such thing as passive in this world”), Alternative Risk Premia (and why returns have suffered so much in recent years) and Chris’ new project: a truly uncorrelated alternative to ARP. Please enjoy this incredibly insightful conversation between Chris, Adam and Rodrigo.
Mon, December 23, 2019
Gregory Zuckerman: The Man Who Solved the Man Who Solved the Market
For the quant community, it was arguably the most awaited book of 2019. Finally, a peek behind the curtains into the most successful hedge fund manager in history. The +66% average (gross) returns that Jim Simons and his army of data scientists produced over the last 17 years in their Medallion fund captured the imagination of investors across the globe and their obsessive secrecy just added to the aura of mystique. After much resistance from the protagonists (not least of which Simons himself), our guest today was able to pierce that bubble and tell the story of Renaissance Technologies. A 20 year veteran of The Wall Street Journal, Gregory Zuckerman has authored best sellers such as "The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters", "The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History", and co-authored the award-winning "Rising Above: How 11 Athletes Overcame Challenges in their Youth to Become Stars" with his two sons. Our 30-minute conversation with Zuckerman tracks a different course from his recent interviews, focusing on how the journey to write this book has changed his understanding of the asset management industry and how his relationship with some of the characters has evolved. But most importantly, we discuss a topic that has been at the core of ReSolve's philosophy from the early years: the idea of harvesting sustainable edges from group relationships as opposed to individual trades or securities. Waste no time and dive right into the latest episode of Gestalt University.
Mon, November 25, 2019
Mike Hirthler: Invert, Always Invert
As fees across the world of financial services have decreased over the last few years, the former quotas and commission-based model under which investment advisors operated sounds like a relic of a bygone era. Back then, advisors were not in the business of providing services such as estate or tax planning, let alone financial education. Mike Hirthler, of Jacobi Capital, was a pioneer and an innovator. When he left the commissions-based job he got just out of college to launch a fee-based advisory firm, there was no shortage of skeptics telling him he would never make it under this new model. But it didn’t take long for the industry itself to follow suit. After almost 35 years in the business, Mike recounts the difficulties of the early years and how the important decision of remaining independent ultimately contributed to the firm’s success. A student of behavioral finance and the psychology of markets, he remains passionate about financial literacy – both for the younger generations that he supports in local colleges (and mentors at the office), as well as the ‘boomer’ generation (many of whom have been his clients for decades) that are currently dealing with the challenges of retirement. Following the teachings and lectures of Charlie Munger over many years introduced him to the concept of mental models and combining disciplines to improve problem-solving, which led to an interesting “encounter” with his “mentor-at-a-distance”. It was also through one of his lectures that Mike came across the work of German mathematician Carl Jacobi – who inspired his firm’s name – and one of his most important lessons: "Think through your major problems backwards; invert, always invert".
Wed, October 02, 2019
Machine Learning in Markets: Silver Bullet? Or Pandora’s "Black" Box?
In this episode Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo host ReSolve's Head of Quantitative Research, Andrew Butler to discuss how ReSolve employs tools from the field of machine learning to produce meaningful and practical improvements in investment outcomes. We start with Andrew's background in applied mathematics and in particular his experience applying ML tools to solve complex real-world problems in the physical sciences. It was fascinating to hear Andrew recount how he came to understand that the tools that work well to model physical systems are much less useful in a financial context. This was a consistent theme throughout the discussion. Our objective was to offer a high-level overview of the ML toolset so we started by defining what ML is and digging into three traditional classes of ML: unsupervised learning, supervised learning, and reinforcement learning. We make each method accessible with simple examples and discuss how ReSolve uses the respective techniques to improve outcomes at virtually every step in the investment process. At many points the group paused to reflect on the myriad ways in which financial markets are distinct from other problem categories. We explore why it is critical to view financial markets through the prism of ML for any statistical inference, and discuss several tools that should be handy in the toolbox of every modern financial analyst. Of critical importance, we reinforced the fact that the ML toolset is useless – if not downright dangerous – if deployed naively without the direction and support of experienced operators. Without a deep understanding of the unique properties and pitfalls of financial markets ML tools are likely to do much more harm than good to portfolios. We also discussed why the most important step – by far – in data-driven research is the validation and online learning step – the sentinel – where trader intuition and experience can amplify results by orders of magnitude. There was some debate about the role of machines and humans in finance and more broadly, and how those roles may evolve. Rodrigo held out hope for sustained human dominance in complex tasks while Adam argued that machines could be playing a much larger and positive role in society already if humans would just get out of the way! There is a lot of marketing around the field of machine learning at the moment but very little nuanced, practical wisdom. We hope you take something of practical relevance from our conversation.
Thu, June 27, 2019
Leverage the Power of Digital Marketing to Supercharge Your Business Growth
Social media has democratized access to media, providing Wealth and Asset Managers with an unprecedented opportunity to capture investor mindshare via digital marketing. Tune in and listen as Mike Philbrick, ReSolve’s President hosts an epic digital marketing roundtable discussion with experts in the field of digital marketing for Asset and Wealth Managers – Chadd Weston and Simon Jalbert from Traction House, as well as veteran Wealth Management professional Justin Castelli from RLS Wealth Management. Together we go deep to tackle the application of digital marketing as it relates to Wealth and Asset Management businesses covering the following items and MORE! How the network effect informs how to most effectively market to your client and prospects. How to zero-in on the highest impact content How to cross-purpose your content and find the best platforms for distribution How to find your tribe and hone your niche market with the right mix of marketing and selling The changing paradigm of “know-like-and-trust” in a digital economy. You will not want to miss this episode. Whether you’re a veteran marketer or just starting the process, this podcast provides unprecedented access to some exceptional minds in the realm of digital marketing for Wealth and Asset Managers with real boots-on-the-ground experience.
Thu, June 27, 2019
Meb Faber: The Road Less Traveled
Let’s face it – Meb Faber is everywhere, and he’s built an asset management business from scratch with a very unconventional approach. I wanted to take a look back at that journey to get some perspective on the good, the bad, and the ugly along the way. Meb shared some interesting stories and surprised me with some of the lessons learned. Meb has launched a really thoughtful and unique family of ETFs but I was interested in some of the ideas on Cambria’s shelf. He shared some other concepts that he’s excited about but that the market isn’t ready for yet, including a compelling and more tax efficient alternative to typical income strategies. Most people are aware that Meb takes great pleasure in busting financial myths. We discuss his pet peeve at the moment – market cap weighting – and some research that he’s conducting on why investors should consider strategies that avoid over-allocating to mega-cap companies. It’s amazing how such simple strategies with intuitive explanations can be overlooked by investors for so many years. My favorite part of the conversation was when Meb described how his thinking had changed over time. Consistent with many of the most thoughtful professionals I’ve chatted with over the years, most of Meb’s lessons relate more to how investors behave in markets rather than the nature of markets themselves. He provides some great illustrations. I think you’ll enjoy some of our “off-roading” and discussions on topics he isn’t asked about very often. Any time with Meb is time well spent and this is no exception.
Thu, June 27, 2019
Eric Falkenstein: It’s All Relative
Academics and practitioners are no longer surprised by the existence of the low volatility anomaly. Many papers have been published in credible journals describing the effect and several explanations have been proposed. But most of the explanations seek to preserve the traditional relationship between risk and return that serves as the fundamental basis of modern economics. Eric Falkenstein turns this concept on its head. Eric wrote his thesis on the low volatility effect long before it was acceptable to talk about in polite company. Despite the size of the effect and the depth and breadth of Eric’s analysis, it violated the critical “equilibrium” theory of the day and was rejected by every journal. Eric learned some valuable lessons from this experience that listeners would do well to pay attention to. I was most intrigued with Eric’s research into an alternative equilibrium model , rooted in aversion to relative rather than absolute wealth. If investors are more concerned with relative status rather than absolute wealth then the low volatility phenomenon is a legitimate risk factor. Eric’s work covers far more than just low volatility investing and risk models. Our discussion branches into politics, social policy, and eventually into his new pet project – cryptocurrencies. This was an all-around incredible conversation that listeners won’t want to miss.
Fri, May 10, 2019
Rob Carver: Uncertainty Principles
You can’t read, watch or listen to Rob Carver for any length of time without recognizing that he has done a lot of thinking about the problem of uncertainty. Traders will connect with Rob’s story of experiencing a large and unexpected loss (is there another kind?) that led him to question whether his models were in sync with the current market environment. The experience contained a silver lining, as it prompted Rob to formalize an approach for analyzing what to expect from strategies in different market environments. Rob shared his thinking and his findings, which many listeners might find quite surprising. Rob has thought more deeply than most about how to design portfolios that are most likely to perform out of sample. We discuss how Rob thinks about the construction of strategic policy portfolios but we also dive deep into quantitative strategy design. I was especially fascinated to discuss Rob’s recent presentation on the “Three Judases” that cause many systematic strategies to fail in live trading. Rob is an open book and generously distills mission critical wisdom from decades of trading into digestible nuggets that will add value for almost any investor.
Fri, May 10, 2019
Larry Swedroe: Factors for the Long Run
When asked about his past, what Larry Swedroe really wanted was to work with the New York Yankees. That dream died when CBS sold the Yankees to George Steinbrenner on January 4th, 1973. But another door opened at the same time that would forever change the trajectory of Larry’s life. As CBS was selling the Yankees, the collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement had unleashed a maelstrom of volatility in the foreign exchange markets, which caused a great deal of trouble for US corporations with foreign operations. Corporate Treasury departments were rudderless and needed people with brand new skill sets to manage the new world order. Larry was in the right place at the right time. He learned fast, and over the decade following the collapse of Bretton Woods he led some of the largest Treasury and FX operations in the world while managing their FX risk with completely novel instruments like currency and interest rate swaps. Then he moved on to mortgages and was one of the progenitors of the multi-trillion dollar securitized mortgage business. By the mid 1990s Larry was ready to retire from finance and settle into a university teaching gig. But, he was approached by a group of planners starting an RIA firm and invited to spearhead the investment side of the business. Fama and French had published their seminal paper on the Cross-Section of Stock Returns in 1993 and by 1995 David Booth had launched an asset management firm to commercialize their ideas – Dimensional Fund Advisors. With the courage and confidence earned from cutting his teeth at the vanguard of two major financial industry innovations, Larry had the conviction to embrace the academically backed “factor” approach from the outset. Over the next couple of decades Larry would go on to write over a dozen books making the case for a disciplined, academic approach to investing. And his firm would grow into one of the largest independent advisory firms in the country. Larry is obsessed with academic finance. We talked at length about the factor zoo and he described the process he uses to identify the factors that are most likely to continue to produce strong excess returns in the decades to come. The low beta factor came under scrutiny with Larry expressing a healthy skepticism. He observed that low beta returns have been regime dependent with low beta outperforming when it loads on value characteristics but underperforming when it loads on growth characteristics. The low beta factor portfolio currently loads on growth characteristics. Larry prefers to own quality in value stocks and lower portfolio beta by lowering total equity exposure. In this episode, ReSolve’s CIO Adam Butler and Larry discuss the pitfalls of single factor strategies because they often load negatively on other premia. Larry shared his story of discussing how to introduce momentum into the DFA value oriented portfolios. He describes how they conceded by holding onto value co
Fri, May 10, 2019
Mark Kritzman: The Case for Optimal Portfolios
Mark Kritzman graduated with a business degree in a time of intense crisis and change in financial markets, and this experience shaped the arc of his career. He has dedicated his professional life to the study of asset allocation and portfolio optimization and his papers on these and other topics have earned over a dozen top awards in finance, including nine Bernstein/Fabozzi/Levy Awards. This conversation between ReSolve’s CIO Adam Butler and Mark is loosely guided by core themes from Mark’s newest book, “A Practitioner’s Guide to Asset Allocation”. Mark describes why he embraces Samuelson’s Dictum and how this has motivated his focus on asset allocation as the most fertile ground for active returns. Relatively small traders can drive mis-priced securities back to equilibrium but asset classes can – and do – stray far from equilibrium because traders lack the capital necessary to correct mis-pricings on their own. This is exacerbated by other barriers to arbitrage like institutional tracking error constraints and benchmark-oriented incentives. Given Mark’s views it’s not surprising that his team at Windham Capital focuses mostly on Tactical Asset Allocation. He expresses the view that the policy portfolio concept is profoundly misguided since markets have highly unstable distributions. Dynamic markets imply that optimal portfolios should change over time in response to changes in expected return, risk and correlation dynamics. Mark makes the case that portfolio optimization gets a bad rap but that most of the protests are disingenuous. Sure, out-of-the box optimization is error-maximizing on portfolio weights but that’s irrelevant for a few simple reasons, most prominently because no one with any sense would use an optimizer out-of-the-box, but also because while small changes in portfolio estimates might lead to large changes in weights, the expected mean and variance of the portfolio would hardly change at all. We address the 1/N arguments and Mark makes clear why they’re bunk. We cover a lot more ground but toward the end Mark divulges that he’s publishing a new paper with mind-blowing implications. I won’t give away the plot here… Mark has forgotten more about finance than most investors will learn in their career. Put down what you’re doing and listen to this right now.
loading...