5 in 5 with ANZ
Start your day with 5 in 5 with ANZ. You’ll hear the five things you need to know about the global economy and markets in under 5 minutes. Plus a deep dive into emerging trends and issues. Hosted by business and financial journalist Bernard Hickey, the podcast features exclusive insights from ANZ’s global team of experts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, April 15, 2025
Wednesday: RBA appears open to May cut
Stock markets were stable overnight although the volatility may be short-lived. The Reserve Bank of Australia opens up for a May rate cut, while tariff uncertainty starts to show through in Australian consumer confidence. In the second part of a bonus Deep Dive interview on the US dollar’s reserve currency status, ANZ’s Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains why the Aussie dollar’s relationship with the US dollar is so important for Australian pension funds. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, April 14, 2025
Tuesday: Markets find some stability, finally
Global markets find some rare stability after Donald Trump’s temporary pivot on computer and phone imports. China’s exporters are stopping shipments anyway. Singapore eases monetary policy. New Zealand’s economic recovery appears to stall. In the first part of a bonus Deep Dive interview with ANZ’s Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers, he talks about the US dollar’s reserve currency status — its exorbitant privilege. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, April 13, 2025
Monday: Computer exemption relief may be temporary
The White House quietly exempted computers and phones from reciprocal import tariffs on Friday night after markets closed, but a Trump official has said the exemption is temporary. US consumer confidence slumps. Gold hits a record high. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explain why oil prices have fallen more than 15% in the last fortnight. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, April 10, 2025
Friday: Safe-haven demand lifts gold to US$3,193/oz
US stocks are down as the White House points out total tariffs on China actually add up to 145%. Gold jumps to a record high. China is set to cut interest rates in response to Trump’s tariffs. And New Zealand’s truck movements indicate a sluggish recovery. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses yesterday’s pivot by Donald Trump to pause global tariff hikes, apart from China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, April 09, 2025
Thursday: Markets jump after tariff pause
Donald Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, unleashing a furious rally in stocks, but increases his tariff on China to 125% after China retaliates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, as does the Reserve Bank of India . Meanwhile, the Yen is attracting safe-haven demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala reviews how Australian states and territories performed at the end of last year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, April 08, 2025
Wednesday: 104% tariff on China confirmed
Global stocks initially rose overnight on hopes for trade deals, but are off their highs in late US trade on confirmation China’s exports will face a 104% tariff within the day. The RBNZ is set to cut today, but will it be 25 bps or 50? And confidence surveys in Australia and New Zealand show confidence rebounded, but that was before the tariff news. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says the market reaction to the US administration’s latest tariff announcements could result in a Trump pivot. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, April 07, 2025
Tuesday: Trump threatens extra 50% tariff on China
Global markets are very volatile again this morning after Donald Trump threatened another 50% tariff on China. Hong Kong stocks fell 9.5%, their worst day since 1997. The Aussie dollar falls below 60 USc to a five-year low. The Kiwi is at a 16-year low. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks at whether China will now push even harder to de-dollarise its foreign reserves. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, April 06, 2025
Monday: S&P 500 & AUD down sharply
Global stocks fall the most since March 2020 after Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff shock. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars slump after China retaliates. And ANZ Research now sees the RBA cutting three times this year, rather than once. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, analyses the economic effects on India of the 26% tariff rate put on its exports to the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, April 03, 2025
Friday: Stocks fall 4-5% after tariff shock
US stocks, bond yields and the US dollar are down sharply after Donald Trump unveiled much higher than expected tariffs. Investors fear a US recession and higher inflation. Australia though may fare better, with gold exempted, and beef prices high. In our bonus deep dive interview, I spoke with ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny late last night about what would be an unprecedented rise in US tariffs to higher than levels seen after the Smoot Hawley Act of 1930. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, April 02, 2025
Thursday: Australia's housing market picks up
US markets rose overnight, but are in a holding pattern ahead of Donald Trump’s big tariff announcements due at 7am Sydney/Melbourne time. Australia’s housing market picks up, while New Zealand building approvals stay sluggish, and inflation unexpectedly rises in South Korea in the middle of a rate cut cycle. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan outlines ANZ Research’s work developing a new method to detect Foreign Exchange trading signals. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, April 01, 2025
Wednesday: RBA wary of global uncertainty
US markets are defensive ahead of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff news, just as weak US manufacturing and jobs data raises slowdown fears. The Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates, but hawkishly. Australian consumer confidence rises and retail sales keep recovering. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why Asian economies may be particularly nervous about the upcoming US tariff announcements, and how they might react. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, March 31, 2025
Tuesday: Gold jumps to US$3,160/oz
US stocks and more risk-sensitive currencies weakened ahead of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ of tariff announcements. Gold jumps to US$3,160/oz. China’s factories brace for tariffs too. Australia’s bank lending growth is steady. In our bonus deep dive interview, Greater China Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses the prospects for a second Plaza Accord-style deal on semiconductors between Taiwan and the United States, similar to a US-Japan deal in 1986. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, March 30, 2025
Monday: Markets brace for tariff details
US investors start the week nervously ahead of tariff news they’ve yet to fully price in. Gold hits a new high. Japanese inflation is rising, which is seen leading to another Bank of Japan rate hike. And New Zealand consumer confidence fell in March. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin looks at who might be the winners and losers in the tariffs Donald Trump is set to confirm, or at least announce, on Wednesday night. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, March 27, 2025
Friday: Trump puts 25% tariff on US car imports
US stocks trade cautiously after Donald Trump sets a 25% tariff on car and car part imports. Gold hits a record high US$3,100/oz. Australia’s Federal Government borrowing task has jumped, and the People’s Bank of China turns dovish. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses why heavy equity outflows from Asian economies are likely to keep flowing after a swathe of US tariff announcements due on April 2. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, March 26, 2025
Thursday: Australian inflation being repressed
US stocks slide on fears Trump will announce car tariffs tonight. UK inflation falls unexpectedly. Australia’s inflation rate slips as Budget rebates are set to keep repressing headline CPI. And Indonesia’s currency is the lowest it’s been since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari tracks the fortunes of silver following record-setting price moves for gold. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, March 25, 2025
Wednesday: New tax cuts in Australian Budget
US consumer confidence slumps into recession territory, Australia’s Budget reveals a surprise tax cut, while future spending plans sit near expectations. Oil prices fall as Ukraine agrees a partial ceasefire. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny analyses how the Federal Open Markets Committee’s projections for the US GDP have changed, and how rising uncertainty is hitting the world’s largest economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, March 24, 2025
Tuesday: Tariff relief hopes spark US rally
US stocks rally on hopes Donald Trump will soften the blow of tariffs due next week. Flash PMIs for the US economy reassure. ANZ Research raises gold forecast to US$3,200 an ounce. And all eyes tonight are on Australia’s Federal Budget. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes reveals two vastly different approaches to slumps in cobalt and lithium prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, March 23, 2025
Monday: Global economy braces for April 2
ANZ Research has lowered its US growth forecast, while also nudging its China GDP forecast higher. Donald Trump’s big tariff day on April 2 will be a key moment for global markets, and Japan’s inflation is rising nicely for more Bank of Japan rate hikes. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton previews tomorrow night’s Federal Budget. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, March 20, 2025
Friday: Bank of England holds, while oil jumps
The Bank of England holds. New Trump sanctions on Iran pump up oil prices by 1.7%. Australia’s big jobs fall in February is not expected to force more RBA cuts, while New Zealand’s stronger Q4 growth shouldn’t stop RBNZ from cutting more. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell digs into what led to New Zealand’s faster-than-expected growth at the end of 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, March 19, 2025
Thursday: Fed holds, but cuts US GDP growth view
The Fed has just held US official interest rates, but has forecast slower growth and two more rate cuts. Traders pushed the US dollar and market interest rates down. Gold jumped to a new high. The Bank of Japan also holds, but is expected to keep hiking. Australian jobs data today is forecast to show more growth. NZ GDP is forecast to bounce. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen looks at Fiji’s growth outlook and considers what is needed to drive growth. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, March 18, 2025
Wednesday: Australian consumers hit 2025 low
US markets fall ahead of tomorrow morning’s rate decision by the FOMC. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates today, German policy makers get ready to take on more debt, and Australian consumers reveal their lowest confidence so far this year. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains what the Reserve Bank of Australia means when it says it will make ‘data dependent’ decisions. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, March 17, 2025
Tuesday: China GDP forecasts upgraded
US retail sales are sluggish and dragging on US GDP growth. China’s economy outperforms expectations, so ANZ Research lifts its China GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. New Zealand’s housing market is stirring, but slowly. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing analyses China’s fiscal response to soften the economic impact of US tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, March 16, 2025
Monday: Gold finally surpasses US$3,000/oz
Gold finally jumps through US$3,000 an ounce. US consumer confidence about jobs and inflation slumps. New Zealand’s GDP data is expected to show growth returned in the December quarter. And the Fed is expected to hold later this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses how all the Trump tariff turmoil is affecting global markets and the US economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, March 13, 2025
Friday: US stocks slide more on tariff drama
US stocks slide again after a new Trump tariff threat. US inflation data was below forecasts. Migrant departures from New Zealand hit a record high, and Australian businesses didn’t get the same boost as consumers did from the RBA ’s rate cut. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala analyses the impact on Australia from the Trump Administration’s new metals tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, March 12, 2025
Thursday: Tariff roller-coaster continues
US inflation is below forecasts. Donald Trump ‘un-doubles’ Canada tariffs, but sets global steel and aluminium ones. Japanese bond yields hit their highest since 2008, thanks to safe-haven demand. And New Zealand’s trucks got moving in February. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim looks at how India’s growth rate over the next year may come in below potential, opening room for rate cuts as annual inflation falls, as it did in February to a weaker-than-expected 3.6%. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, March 11, 2025
Wednesday: Trump doubles tariffs to 50%
Donald Trump doubles Canadian steel and aluminium tariffs to 50%, slamming markets again. Australian consumer and business confidence fall a bit. Japan’s GDP is revised down, but strong wage growth is expected to keep the Bank of Japan hiking. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains why India’s inflation rate doesn’t look to be a problem for further policy easing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, March 10, 2025
Tuesday: Trump's economic 'transition' comments hit markets
US stocks and US bond yields are down sharply this morning after Donald Trump accepted the US economy was slowing. Oil prices keep falling on global demand and supply fears. The euro is surging on hopes for bigger European investment spending. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the surprising performance of US shale oil producers and how they might respond to lower prices in a ‘drill, baby, drill’ era. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, March 09, 2025
Monday: Trump's tariff zig-zags unsettle investors
Trump’s vacillations on tariffs is unsettling US market and economic confidence, although some think a ‘Trump Put’ will limit any fall in stock prices. Markets now expect more than three Fed rate cuts in 2025. China’s deflation deepens in February. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin takes a closer look at Germany’s plan to step off its ‘fiscal brake’. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, March 06, 2025
Friday: ECB cuts and is set for more
Trump delays tariffs on auto imports for a month and the ECB cuts rates. Australia’s exports to the US jump despite tariff uncertainty. Forecasts for New Zealand’s Q4 GDP may fall, and Malaysia holds rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the RBA’s February meeting minutes this week point to only one more rate cut this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, March 05, 2025
Thursday: Australian growth picks up
Oil hits a six-month low and the US dollar drops 1% on fears trade wars will lower global growth. Private spending helps Australian GDP grow 0.6% in Q4. China sets a new growth target of 5%, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Governor resigns. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at whether the GDP growth Australia experienced at the end of 2024 can be sustained through 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, March 04, 2025
Wednesday: Markets slump as tariff war starts
Global stocks and bond yields fall sharply again after the United States imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, who retaliate with moves of their own. Australia’s Q4 GDP is set for an export boost, while green shoots emerge in New Zealand’s housing market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing outlines what to expect from China’s National People’s Congress this week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, March 03, 2025
Tuesday: Tariff fears drag on US markets
US markets fall on fears about Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are due to kick today unless he changes his mind. Australia’s business indicators in Q4 beat expectations, as did a survey of China manufacturing in February. New Zealand exports jump in Q4. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani crunches the numbers on how much inflation might flow through to US consumers from Trump’s tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, March 02, 2025
Monday: USD strong as tariff deadlines loom
Global markets take the White House clash in their stride. Tariff deadlines are more in focus, boosting the US dollar, in particular vs the Canadian dollar. Australian lending growth softens, and New Zealand consumer confidence remains subdued. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell analyses how New Zealand’s housing market has started 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, February 27, 2025
Friday: USD surges on imminent tariff news
The US dollar jumps after Trump says 25% tariffs will hit Canadian and Mexican imports from next Tuesday. New Zealand business confidence nudges up as interest rates fall, and weaker Australian capital expenditure may lower Q4 GDP forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at how much the RBA ’s rate cut last week might feed through to Australia’s housing market this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, February 26, 2025
Thursday: Electricity rebates jostle Australian CPI data
The US dollar stabilises with US bond yields after a surprise drop. Australian inflation is thrown around as electricity rebates roll off, while construction work shows hints of weakness. And Thailand cuts rates unexpectedly, with more cuts likely to come. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s International Economist Kishti Sen considers the outlook for Pacific island currencies amid global trade wars. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, February 25, 2025
Wednesday: Bond yields fall after US confidence slump
Sliding US consumer confidence hammers US Treasury bond yields down to their lowest levels since December. Australia’s January CPI today could give clues on more RBA rate cuts. Australian consumer confidence jumps after the RBA’s cut this month. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the prospects of OPEC going through with stated plans to reverse production cuts made back during Covid in 2020 and 2021. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, February 24, 2025
Tuesday: Tariff fears unnerving US economy
Markets react cautiously to Germany’s new Government. The US economy is softening because of tariff uncertainty. China’s central bank is using off balance sheet tools to intervene in markets, and New Zealand’s retail sector has perked up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Asia, Sanjay Mathur, has taken a closer look at the importance of household consumption in Asia’s economies, especially in the face of tariff headwinds to their exports . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, February 23, 2025
Monday: Tariffs, German elections & USD in focus this week
All eyes this week are on the latest tariffs drama and German election results, but in Australia, fresh inflation data will be in focus after the RBA’ s rate cut. The US dollar stabilises. Japan’s inflation is strong, and New Zealand posts a trade surplus. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at two key issues in geopolitics: whether Trump’s tariffs create inflation, and how the war in Ukraine might be resolved amid elections in Germany. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, February 20, 2025
Friday: Australian jobs growth continues
Global stocks are down after a Walmart warning. Australia’s jobless rate ticks up, but jobs also surge, so the RBA says it’s hard to see bad news in the data. And China holds its key rates, keeping its powder dry so it can cut when the US trade war hits. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou sorted through more than 10,000 product classifications to find out how the 10% tariffs being placed on China by the US would affect trade. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, February 19, 2025
Thursday: RBNZ cuts & signals more
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts 50 basis points and signals more to come. Australia’s wage growth is lighter than expected, which is good news for the RBA ahead of January jobs figures today. They are set to show a solid labour market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk highlights how housing markets in Australia’s capital cities struggled ahead of the RBA’s rate cut. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, February 18, 2025
Wednesday: RBA cuts hawkishly
The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts hawkishly, warning of uncertainties around the labour market. The question now is whether it will cut again this year. And Australian consumers lost a bit of confidence ahead of the cut. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner analyses the picture the Reserve Bank of New Zealand faces today as it decides how much to cut rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, February 17, 2025
Tuesday: EU stocks hit record highs
European stocks hit record highs and bond yields rise as higher defence spending is priced-in amid Ukraine peace talks. Japan’s economy hits its growth stride, and high dairy prices and a low Kiwi dollar are combining to support New Zealand’s economy. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why the improving inflation outlook has given the Reserve Bank of Australia the room to cut 25 basis points to 4.1% later today, and then once more in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, February 16, 2025
Monday: RBA set to cut rates, finally
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to finally cut rates this week. However, the Aussie dollar is firmer this morning and may rise more as global markets take some of the Trump tariff premium out of the US dollar. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why ANZ Research has increased its growth forecast for this year to 2.4% from 2.2%. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, February 13, 2025
Friday: Trump set to announce global reciprocal tariffs
Donald Trump is set to announce global reciprocal tariffs today, but US stocks rose and US Treasury yields and the dollar fell on hopes delays could reduce the inflation hit. Japan’s rising producer prices support another BoJ hike. And the Philippines’ central bank unexpectedly holds rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains the importance of New Zealand’s closely watched inflation expectations survey, ahead of next week’s live rates decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, February 12, 2025
Thursday: US inflation overshoots
US stocks and rate cut expectations retreat as January inflation comes in hotter than expected - just one rate cut is now priced for this year; And New Zealand trucks got moving last month, but a full recovery in economic activity is yet to take hold. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan reviews which Asian economies are most at risk from US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff proclamations. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, February 11, 2025
Wednesday: Australia could dodge tariffs
Markets are focused on cautious comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about more rate cuts. Australia’s large and growing US trade deficit could spare it from metals tariffs. Australian consumer confidence in the here-and-now is at its lowest since September. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks into the prospects of gold going through the $3,000 an ounce mark. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, February 10, 2025
Tuesday: Gold hits new record high
US markets react positively to President Trump’s latest steel and aluminium tariff announcement, but uncertainty remains. Gold hit a new record high overnight. The British Pound continues to weaken following the Bank of England’s rate cut last week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes unpacks the implications of Trump’s tariffs on aluminium and steel, if enacted, and who might be the winners and losers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, February 09, 2025
Monday: US consumers fear tariffs will hike prices
US consumers increasingly fear Donald Trump’s tariffs will drive up inflation, which worried US markets on Friday. Trump reverses a plan to put tariffs on parcel imports. The Reserve Bank of India cuts rates. And China’s CPI inflation blipped up in January. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton finds some surprising strength in private sector job creation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, February 06, 2025
Friday: Bank of England cuts dovishly
Markets are mixed amid conflicting signals on Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Bank of England cuts dovishly, driving the pound lower. Australia’s trade surplus normalises in December, and Vietnam’s inflation was surprisingly strong. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen analyses the risks to Fiji’s trade from a tariff-imposing White House. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, February 05, 2025
Thursday: Gold hits record high over US$2,900/oz
Gold hits a new record high as the US 10 year yield falls to its lowest point this year.; China holds the Yuan strongly amid depreciation pressure; and New Zealand’s job market loosens enough to green-light the RBNZ to cut 50 basis points this month. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains what’s behind the surge in gold prices to record highs and a 5% fall in oil prices since Trump’s inauguration. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, February 04, 2025
Wednesday: Markets welcome limited China retaliation
Mexico and Canada get a one month reprieve from Donald Trump’s 15% across-the-board tariffs and China is in talks for a similar reprieve. China’s response yesterday was also limited, which markets welcomed overnight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Economist Henry Russell says ANZ’s Business Outlook survey indicates New Zealand’s economy turned a corner at the end of 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, February 03, 2025
Tuesday: Mexico secures tariff pause
Mexico secures a one-month reprieve from tariffs by agreeing to send troops to the US border. All eyes are now on a call this morning between President Trump and Canadian PM Trudeau; Gold and the US dollar rise amid the see-sawing uncertainty. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh talks about how Trump’s tariffs are likely to drive the yuan and other Asian currencies around, with tomorrow’s fix of the Chinese currency by the People’s Bank of China being a key moment. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, February 02, 2025
Monday: Trump's tariffs set to disrupt global economy & markets
Markets will open this morning for the first time after Donald Trump unleashed 25% tariffs across the board on imports from Canada and Mexico on Sunday. Stocks, bond yields and non-US currencies are expected to slide as investors seek safe havens. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin analyses the detail of Trump’s historic actions and the implications for global trade, output and inflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, January 30, 2025
Friday: ECB cuts, while Fed is in no hurry
Markets are coping this morning with the world’s two biggest central banks taking interest rates in different directions, with the Fed holding yesterday and in no hurry to cut again, while the ECB cut overnight with more to come. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch digs into the detail behind Australia’s falling inflation rate and why ANZ Research is expecting a rate cut in February. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, January 29, 2025
Thursday: Australian CPI supports RBA cut
The Reserve Bank of Australia looks well placed to be able to cut in February as Australian inflation comes in below market expectations. The US Federal Open Markets Committee is about to announce its first rate decision of the year, while the European Central Bank is on track to cut rates tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan analyses market views and positioning for major currencies through 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, January 28, 2025
Wednesday: Aus inflation could give RBA green light
US stocks stabilised after yesterday’s tech-rout. Attention now turns to tomorrow’s FOMC decision, which could see US interest rates on hold; Meanwhile, Australia’s Q4 inflation today is expected to give the RBA a green light to cut rates in February. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty says the new Special Economic Zone between Singapore and its neighbouring Malaysian state will present opportunities for both economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, January 27, 2025
Tuesday: DeepSeek sparks tech selloff
US tech stocks slump on fear AI firms may be overvalued. That’s because a Chinese AI firm looks to have caught up, at a fraction of the cost. Also, the Bank of Japan hikes, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore eases. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman has reviewed how well currency markets coped with Donald Trump ’s first week as US President. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, January 23, 2025
Friday: BoJ rate hike expected
The Bank of Japan is set to hike rates today, while Singapore looks set to ease. Political turmoil suppresses Korean growth, and inflows of migrants into New Zealand fall again. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan analyses Bank Indonesia’s shift away from being concerned about a weak currency, leading to last week’s surprise rate cut. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, January 22, 2025
Thursday: Trump suggests 1 Feb for China tariffs
President Trump indicates a 10% tariff could be placed on China from 1 February; New Zealand’s domestic inflation slows more than expected; and Malaysia holds rates amid strong growth. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell reviews the state of New Zealand’s housing market, and what to expect over 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, January 21, 2025
Wednesday: US markets calm on Day One of Trump 2.0
US markets remain calm on Day One of the new administration as tariffs remain unannounced - for now; New Zealand’s non-tradable inflation today will be a gauge for the RBNZ ’s next rate cut, and Malaysia’s central bank is expected to hold today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at prospects across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand in 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, January 20, 2025
Tuesday: USD drops on reports of tariff delays
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are up 1% this morning as reports on President Trump’s inauguration day indicate tariffs won’t be enforced on day one of the new administration. China’s authorities are preparing their financial markets for when trade restrictions do come into force. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung previews what to expect in the Year of the Snake. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, January 19, 2025
Monday: USD strong as Trump 2.0 begins
All eyes are on the second inauguration of Donald Trump and what he says about tariffs and migration. The US dollar is firm and may rise even more. China’s GDP growth beats forecasts, but was boosted by pre-loading of exports to America. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses the meaning of Donald Trump version 2.0 for Australia’s economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, January 16, 2025
Friday: Australian jobs growth beats forecasts
Global markets are stable after solid US retail sales data. Strong Australian employment growth keeps the spotlight on the RBA ahead of next month’s rates decision. The Bank of Korea unexpectedly holds rates, and New Zealand’s international airfares rise nearly 30% in December. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton previews 2025 for the Australian economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, January 15, 2025
Thursday: Markets celebrate low US inflation
US inflation data was cooler than forecast overnight, unleashing a rally on bond and stock markets on relief the Fed might be able to cut again after all. Australia’s jobs market data today will test the RBA’s ability to cut next month. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan talks through the slumps in the Aussie and Kiwi currencies this year as the US dollar takes off. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, January 14, 2025
Wednesday: What new sanctions mean for oil prices
New sanctions on Russia’s oil exports are driving prices, for now. India’s rupee hits a record low. Australian consumer confidence is holding up over summer and business confidence improves again in New Zealand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin reviews why the market has swiftly rowed back US rate cut bets in the early weeks of 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, January 13, 2025
Tuesday: US rate cut hopes fade
US Treasury yields continue to rise and stocks fall as hopes of multiple Fed rate cuts fade. A strong US dollar sees the Yuan slide towards 16-year lows, triggering intervention. And the oil price rises again overnight following new US sanctions. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner previews how New Zealand’s economy looks set to perform over 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, January 12, 2025
Monday: AUD starts 2025 near 5-year low
ANZ Research has pulled forward its forecast for Australia’s first rate cut to February from May after soft inflation data. But US rates expectations have risen after strong US jobs growth. That combination has dragged the AUD down to post-Covid lows. In our first bonus deep dive interview for 2025, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why China’s economy may well achieve its 5% growth target for 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, December 17, 2024
Wednesday: Markets set for Fed, BoJ rates moves
Global markets are mixed ahead of big US and Japanese rate decisions later this week. US retail sales are solid. New Zealand’s Government announces a bigger than expected increase in bond issuance, and Australian consumers end the year better off. For our final bonus Deep Dive interview of the year, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at the key themes of 2024 and at what 2025 might bring for the global economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, December 16, 2024
Tuesday: NZ Govt borrowing forecast to rise
PMI results show the US economy is resilient, supporting only three Fed cuts in 2025. China’s retail sales disappoint again. NZ’s Government is expected to unveil a higher borrowing forecast today. Coldplay concerts in Auckland nudge inflation up a bit. In the second in a series of bonus Deep Dive interviews to round out the year and to look ahead to 2025, I spoke with ANZ’s Head of Research for Asia, Khoon Goh , about Asia, ex China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, December 15, 2024
Monday: Markets brace for Fed & BoJ decisions
Global markets are bracing for Fed rate cut on Thursday and a possible Bank of Japan hike on Friday. New Zealand’s economy is expected to report a triple-dip recession on Wednesday, before a rebound next year. In the first in a series of bonus Deep Dive interviews to round out the year and to look ahead to 2025, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung expects monetary policy loosening in the first quarter. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, December 12, 2024
Friday: ECB set to cut 150 bps more in 2025
The ECB cuts 25 bps as expected, but the Swiss National Bank surprises with 50 bps cut. US headline PPI inflation is hotter than expected, but core inflation is still cooling. Australia’s jobs market tightens as unemployment falls. And India’s inflation rate falls, clearing the way for the RBI to cut in February. In our bonus deep-dive interview, as we start thinking about what to put on the table for Christmas, ANZ’s executive director for Agribusiness insights Michael Whitehead reveals what Australians eat and drink on Christmas Day. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, December 11, 2024
Thursday: Fed rate cut seen locked in after CPI
US inflation met forecasts. Markets now see a Fed rate cut next week as a sure thing. Japanese producer price inflation pressure builds for BoJ . Soft NZ data points to a triple dip recession. Australian jobs growth is seen keeping the RBA on its toes. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari says the global aluminium market faces a number of challenges over 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, December 10, 2024
Wednesday: RBA holds, but now less worried about inflation
Global markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data. The RBA holds, but is more comfortable on inflation, which saw the Aussie and Kiwi dollars drop 1%. And China’s exports haven’t experienced a pre-Trump bump…yet. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains how the new Reserve Bank of India Governor, could approach monetary policy, including with a new deputy in place. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, December 09, 2024
Tuesday: AUD and NZD rise on China stimulus talk
Oil prices rise 2% as Syria’s President flees the country, and as more stimulus is expected in China following a surprise politburo statement. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars get a boost; The RBA goes into its final meeting of the year with a slight tightening bias. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ ’s Executive Director for Agribusiness Insights, Michael Whitehead, has been down on Australia’s wheat, beef and sheep farms with mostly good news for farmers, starting with strong grain prices and a surprising reason. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, December 08, 2024
Monday: China may downgrade its GDP forecast this week
Markets have yet to open after the lightening-fast overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria over the weekend, which may further destabilise the Middle East. The Fed is seen on track to cut again next week. The RBA is expected to hold tomorrow. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing explains why he’s watching for a potential GDP target downgrade from China’s annual Central Economic Work Conference this week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, December 05, 2024
Friday: All eyes ahead to US jobs and Fed
Bitcoin holds above US$100,000, while stocks and bonds are mixed ahead of US jobs data. The euro holds up well despite the collapse of France’s government, and Australian consumer goods imports rose as retailers stocked up for Black Friday. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India,Sanjay Mathur , looks at how Indonesia can grow GDP even faster than its current rate of 5% per annum. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, December 04, 2024
Thursday: Lifting of martial law helps South Korean won
South Korea’s financial markets stabilise after the lifting of martial law, but the won remains vulnerable to political instability and a national strike threat. Australian GDP growth is more solid than its topline figures suggest. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ India Economist Dhiraj Nim dismantles India’s food inflation trends to find there’s more than just the weather and climate at work. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, December 03, 2024
Wednesday: South Korean President declares martial law
South Korea’s President declares martial law, accusing opposition parties of plotting with North Korea. The Korean won slumps. Elsewhere, Australian GDP figures today are set to show a re-acceleration of growth. In part two of a bonus Deep Dive interview on Asian currencies across 2025, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses which export-dependent economies are most at risk from trade disruptions. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, December 02, 2024
Tuesday: Euro falls on French budget woes
The Euro falls on growing concerns that France’s minority Government will face a no-confidence vote as it forces through a Budget bill. Australian retail sales are stronger than expected due to early discounting, and New Zealand building consents stabilise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why he now expects a fifth consecutive year of depreciation for Asian currencies against the US dollar. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, December 01, 2024
Monday: Contrasting rate calls in Australasia
ANZ Research now sees a later start to rate cuts in Australia, but sees a bigger rate cut in February in New Zealand. Donald Trump issues a big new tariff threat. And India’s GDP missed forecasts, increasing the chances the RBI will cut later this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why she sees just 75 bps more of rate cuts, rather than the 125 bps the RBNZ sees. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, November 28, 2024
Friday: Surprise rate cut in South Korea
Global markets are mixed, although tension is building around France’s budget crisis. The Bank of Korea unexpectedly cuts rates. Australian capital expenditure resumes growing, while New Zealand business confidence continues to firm. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak reviews how Vietnam’s economy has rebounded from Typhoon Yagi and how its export sector could be affected by incoming US tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, November 27, 2024
Thursday: RBNZ triggers questions over next move
Solid US inflation means the Federal Reserve could pause rate cuts in December. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts 50 basis points, with questions arising over its next move, and underlying inflation ticks up in Australia. In our bonus deep dive interview, after yesterday’s RBNZ decision, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner sums up the state of play for Kiwi interest rates, with the next RBNZ move not happening until February. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, November 26, 2024
Wednesday: A$ & NZ$ slide after Trump tariff threat
Markets wobble after Trump threatens 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which forced the Aussie and Kiwi dollars down to near one-year lows. The RBNZ is expected to cut by 50 bps and the RBA is watching for disinflation progress. In our bonus deep dive interview, ahead of today’s RBNZ decision, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman analyses last week’s growth warning from the New Zealand Treasury . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, November 25, 2024
Tuesday: Markets jump on US Treasury pick
US markets bounce on hedge fund manager Scott Bessent’s selection as Treasury secretary, easing deficit and tariff fears. Singapore’s inflation is dragged down by a strong currency, and a fall in New Zealand Q3 retail sales should mark the bottom of the current recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur looks at why the Phillipines’s current account deficit has risen sharply since April, and explores the wider implications. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, November 24, 2024
Monday: Focus turns to Fed, RBA & RBNZ
Global stocks rise again after strong US business activity surveys. This week’s focus is on the Fed ’s minutes and US inflation data, along with Australian inflation figures and a rates decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand . In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Maddy Dunk highlights a counterintuitive move in housing affordability in one state capital. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, November 21, 2024
Friday: Mixed US economic signals as oil drops
Oil rises on an escalating conflict in Ukraine. US jobs and business confidence data is mixed. Australian housing affordability worsens again and New Zealand’s Treasury warns growth will be weaker than its May forecast and widen the budget deficit. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why ANZ Research thinks gold will continue to attract demand despite recent price drops. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, November 20, 2024
Thursday: Safe havens sought as Ukraine conflict escalates
Global stocks wobble as Ukraine conflict fears escalate. UK inflation is hotter than expected. China’s banks hold lending rates amid a focus on fiscal stimulus, and Bank Indonesia says post-Trump currency moves have affected its ability to cut rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma looks at the implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s win for Asian local currency bond yields. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, November 19, 2024
Wednesday: Stocks jittery on Ukraine nerves
Stocks are jittery and safe havens in demand this morning after an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine overnight. The RBA ’s minutes indicate it may cut earlier than previously expected and Australian consumer confidence is still trending higher. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the outlook for Chinese steel production and iron ore prices ahead of looming US tariffs under a Donald Trump Presidency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, November 18, 2024
Tuesday: Oil up 3% as Ukraine war intensifies
Oil prices rise 3% as the Russia-Ukraine war escalates. US Treasury yields edge up as traders price a December rate cut by the Fed at 50-50. And RBA minutes today are being watched to see how hawkish the rate-setting board continues to be. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains how the RBNZ’s more aggressive start to OCR cuts has shifted New Zealand economy’s growth outlook upwards. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, November 17, 2024
Monday: Trump Trade? Or just a clear election result trade?
The Trump trade takes a breather. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is less dovish than expected. China’s retail sales surge, leaving it on track for 4.9% GDP growth this year. And was the Trump trade actually about Trump? Or about a very clear election result? In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the risks of Australia’s gas supply getting redirected into the international market, and what might replace it domestically. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, November 14, 2024
Friday: US dollar near two-year high
US producer price inflation rises a bit, but a rate cut remains on the table. The US dollar nears a two-year high on the ‘'Trump Trade’. Australia’s jobless rate holds but employment growth slows, and there are signs of life in New Zealand’s housing market. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at how Australia’s East Coast gas suppliers have dealt with entry into the global market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, November 13, 2024
Thursday: US December rate cut bets jump
Bets firm for a December rate cut by the Fed as US disinflation continues. Australian wage growth is lower than expected, but that might not move the RBA. The Yen weakens further as the US dollar continues its surge - the Aussie and Kiwi fall as well. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh continues our coverage of the effects of Donald Trump’s election victory on global markets. Chinese authorities moved yesterday to support a weakening Yuan, while foreign investment outflows in Asia have also been picking up pace. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, November 12, 2024
Wednesday: Australian confidence up
US stocks take a breather, while Treasury yields and Bitcoin continue to surge following the US election. Australian consumers and businesses are the most confident since early 2023, and New Zealand’s economic slump looks to have bottomed out. ANZ Senior Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says China’s authorities look to have held off announcing a larger stimulus package last week to keep their powder dry for whatever a Donald Trump -led United States throws at their economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, November 11, 2024
Tuesday: Bitcoin surges on Trump trade
The Trump trade surge continues: Bitcoin hits a new record high and the US dollar bounced another half-percent overnight. Expectations for another Fed rate cut in December grow more wobbly; and weary ECB policy makers suggest rate cuts could help ward off negative US trade moves. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses a surge in jobs in aged care and disabled care, which is lifting female workforce participation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, November 10, 2024
Monday: Fed cuts, but cautious on more
The Fed cuts by 25 basis points as expected, with one more expected next month. The Fed is being cautious as the US economy lands softly. China’s EV exports to Australia surge. New Zealand is wary of how tariffs might affect beef exports. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses how Trump’s tariffs might affect economies in Asia, outside of China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, November 07, 2024
Friday: China exports jump ahead of tariffs
US stocks rise again with hopes a dominant Trump Presidency will be good for growth and profits, but Treasury yields fell ahead of the Fed ’s decision. The Bank of England cuts, but looser British fiscal policy may slow more cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou explains how well China is prepared for Trump tariffs 2.0. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, November 06, 2024
Thursday: Trump trade fires up
US stocks surge more than 2% to fresh record highs as stock investors celebrate Donald Trump ’s re-election. But bond holders aren’t so sure. US Treasury yields jumped 18 basis points to a six-month high as traders bet on tax cuts, higher borrowing and growth. Meanwhile New Zealand’s jobless rate rises less than expected, and Malaysia holds rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses the currency implications of that election win, following a sizeable jump in the US dollar overnight. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, November 05, 2024
Wednesday: Election day in the USA
US stocks and Treasury yields are up on election day as data suggests whoever wins is going to inherit a growing US economy. Meanwhile, the RBA holds and stays mildly hawkish, and New Zealand’s unemployment rate is expected to tick up today. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner reviews the recent leap in ANZ’s Business Outlook survey and looks ahead to the Reserve Bank’s rate decision at the end of the month. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, November 04, 2024
Tuesday: 'Trump Trade' unwinds as Harris edges higher
The US dollar and Treasury yields fell overnight as opinion polls pointed to a narrow Kamala Harris victory; In Australia today the RBA is expected to hold rates but shift to a more neutral tone, and Australia’s jobs market shows more signs of strength. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at how a Trump Presidency might affect trade in Asia, vs a Harris Presidency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, November 03, 2024
Monday: All eyes on US elections, then Fed
US jobs growth was much weaker than expected in October, but the Fed is still on track to cut rates 25 basis points later this week. December is not as certain for another cut though. And watch out this week for more stimulus news from China. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin teases out how the Fed, financial markets and bond investors view a Harris win, or a Trump win. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, October 31, 2024
Friday: UK Budget hits Bank of England cut bets
The Bank of Japan holds rates, but signals more still on the cards; UK rate cut bets retreat after new Government’s first budget, Australian retail sales jump and China’s manufacturing sector expands ahead of further stimulus expected next week. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou (Showe Jo) looks at the rise …and the rise of China’s electric vehicle industry. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, October 30, 2024
Thursday: US GDP boosted by consumers
US GDP is boosted by strong consumer spending while European growth beats expectations. Australian inflation falls - but rate cuts still aren’t on the cards for this year. And the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates today against a backdrop of political uncertainty. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as Indonesia’s new President is finally sworn in following February’s election, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan looks at what his new policy priorities could mean for commodities and the state budget. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, October 29, 2024
Wednesday: US GDP in focus
US consumer confidence lifts, ahead of stronger GDP figures expected today, although weaker jobs data shows signs of a cooling labour market; And Australian consumer confidence stays strong ahead of data today expected to show headline inflation fall to within the RBA’s target band. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses the potential impact today’s inflation numbers could have on the Aussie dollar. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, October 28, 2024
Tuesday: Oil slumps as fears of wider conflict ease
Oil prices slump 5.5% on hopes the tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran might not escalate. The yen falls on uncertainty about a new Government in Japan, and gas prices are rising as European buyers hunt for LNG supplies for the European winter. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why China is stockpiling copper as a strategic metal. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, October 27, 2024
Monday: How the 'Trump trade' is driving the USD
Traders are bracing for hits to the yen and the Nikkei after surprising losses for Japan’s ruling party in election results overnight. Japan’s inflation is firming in line with Bank of Japan hopes, and US non-farm payrolls are the big figures to watch this week. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at the Trump trade in global currency and bond markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, October 24, 2024
Friday: US economy keeps outperforming UK & EU
The US labour market remains resilient, while UK and European production is still contracting. South Korea growth disappoints as exports drag, and Japan’s Finance Minister raises concerns as the yen slides against a resurgent US dollar In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at what China might learn from its current economic support efforts, and how quickly India might catch up. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, October 23, 2024
Thursday: ECB December rate cut bets rise
US stocks are dragged down by big tech names. European rate cut bets move further towards 50 basis points in December. Canada cuts rates by 50 basis points, and Singapore’s inflation is higher than expected, but provides enough for policy easing. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga was in China during the recent stimulus briefings and gives us his take on what the domestic economy there is facing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, October 22, 2024
Wednesday: Australian consumers feeling secure
US Fed officials point to smaller, cautious cuts, Australian consumers look through later rate cuts and to job safety as confidence jumps, and falls in some New Zealand imports point to underlying economic weakness. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses concerns that China has been building up excessive stockpiles of key imports at the same time as domestic activity has been dropping off. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, October 21, 2024
Tuesday: Gold surges to US$2,750/oz
Gold jumps to new highs. China’s banks cut lending rates more than expected to jolt demand. Iron ore and oil prices fall after China stimulus disappointment, and the RBA is encouraged by rate cut bets being pushed out after strong jobs data. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why investors weren’t too keen on China’s recent property support package. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, October 20, 2024
Monday: S&P at record despite Fed cut bets retreating
The S&P 500 starts the week fresh after hitting a new record high on Friday. China’s GDP beats expectations, but a big fourth quarter jump is required to hit the official target. Japan’s core inflation continues to support cautious BoJ rate hikes. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin reviews the key September economic data prints in the US to explain why market pricing for November and December rate cuts by the US Fed are starting to be dialled back. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, October 17, 2024
Friday: ECB cuts; Fed bets pulled back
The European Central Bank cuts by 25 basis points as inflation falls below target; US rate cut bets are pulled back following stronger retail sales; Australian jobs growth surges; And China announces further measures to support its property market. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at the effects that changing household sizes and investor lending are having on Australia’s housing market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, October 16, 2024
Thursday: Weaker NZ inflation spurs cut talk
New Zealand’s inflation falls more than expected, with markets now wondering if a 75 basis point cut in November is on the cards; UK inflation was also weaker; Australian jobs growth is expected to slow; And the Philippines and Thailand cut rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains what New Zealand’s weaker inflation could mean for the Reserve Bank’s November decision. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, October 15, 2024
Wednesday: Weaker UK jobs market paves way for BoE cut
A weakening UK jobs market points to a November Bank of England cut; Concern over China stimulus grows; FOMC members talk of 25bps cuts by the Fed ; New Zealand inflation is set to return to target; Three rates decisions today in Asia. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk discusses signs that Australia’s housing market is starting to cool - particularly in Melbourne. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, October 14, 2024
Tuesday: China bond investors wary
Chinese stocks rise after more stimulus was promised over the weekend, but bond investors remain wary. Singapore holds policy but turns dovish, even as growth strengthens. India’s inflation unexpectedly jumps in September. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen analyses the outlook for Pacific Island currencies as global monetary policy easing takes off. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, October 13, 2024
Monday: China stimulus briefing disappoints
Solid US producer prices add to signals the Fed will be cautious in November; South Korea cuts rates, but now looks to pause; And Chinese inflation is weaker than expected, with traders also underwhelmed by Saturday’s stimulus briefing. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing outlines why that weekend briefing by China’s Finance Ministry did not deliver what investors were looking for. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, October 10, 2024
Friday: Stronger US inflation supports smaller rate cut bets
US inflation outpaces expectations, supporting bets for a 25 basis point cut by the Fed in November; Japan’s producer prices are stronger than expected; A manufacturing bounce in Singapore may lead its Monetary Authority to hold policy next week. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak analyses how the Thai Baht was the second strongest Asian currency in Q3, prompting the Bank of Thailand to intervene. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, October 09, 2024
Thursday: RBNZ cuts by 50bps
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts by 50 basis points and markets price another outsized move in November; Attention turns to US inflation data after last week’s strong jobs report; The Reserve Bank of India holds but moves to a neutral stance. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as China’s Finance Ministry announces a fiscal policy briefing for Saturday, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses the growth prospects for China’s economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, October 08, 2024
Wednesday: RBA tones down hawkishness
Oil fell back 5% overnight on fears about China’s growth outlook. The RBA tones down the hawkishness in its September board minutes. All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand ’s rate decision today - will it be 25 or 50 basis points? In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why China’s National Development and Reform Commission didn’t announce any additional fiscal stimulus at yesterday’s briefing, but why some might be around the corner. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, October 07, 2024
Tuesday: US 50bps rate cut bets evaporate
Oil is up another 3% on fears of escalating Middle East conflict; Friday’s bumper US jobs report has seen bets for a 50 basis point cut by the Fed in November evaporate; And China’s stock market braces for a renewed surge after the Golden Week holidays. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell says there are signs the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s August rate cut may have already spurred some housing market activity. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, October 06, 2024
Monday: Strong US jobs growth boosts USD
US jobs growth was much stronger than expected, which lifted US Treasury yields 12-20 bps and shunted the US dollar 0.5% higher. Economists also now see a 50 basis point cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton reveals what a surprising rise in workforce participation means for interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, October 03, 2024
Friday: Markets skittish on oil price fear
Global markets are skittish this morning on fears the conflict in the Middle East will lift oil prices. Australia’s labour market and services sector remain resilient in PMI data, and NZ house prices fall again, despite the RBNZ starting rate cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby looks at what the US dock workers’ strike could mean for Australia and New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, October 02, 2024
Thursday: Traders eye Middle East escalation risks
Markets are mixed as traders analyse just how much escalation is possible in the conflict between Israel and Iran across the Middle East. There’s further strength in the US jobs market, and inflation in South Korea has fallen below the central bank’s target. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur outlines the prospects for Asian economies across the fourth quarter. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, October 01, 2024
Wednesday: Oil jumps on Iran attack on Israel
Oil prices have jumped, US Treasury yields US stocks are down and the US dollar is up in a flight to safety after reports that Iran has launched missiles at Israel; the US labour market is showing signs of resilience, while rate cut expectations in Europe have been boosted by lower inflation overnight. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk discusses how sales in the lead up to Fathers’ Day in Australia helped retailers in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, September 30, 2024
Tuesday: China stocks, iron ore prices jump
China’s stock market jumps 8.5% as investors rush in. Japan’s Nikkei falls nearly 5% on concerns the new Prime Minister there is an interest rate hawk. Australia’s housing market is softening. New Zealand business confidence takes another leap higher. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says there are some silver linings in the recent bi-annual ANZ Core Logic Housing Affordability Report as affordability nationally worsened in June. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, September 29, 2024
Monday: Could Saudi Arabia flood oil markets again?
US inflation kept falling through August. All eyes this week will be on US jobs data on Friday. Australian lending figures may show a rise today. And consumers in New Zealand are more confident about house prices, as well as their own finances. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Analyst Daniel Hynes looks at why Saudi Arabia might be about to swamp the market with extra oil to win back market share. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, September 26, 2024
Friday: Gold hits record-high US$2,700/oz
Gold, the S&P 500 and the Euro Stoxx 500 rose to fresh record-highs on enthusiasm about the Fed ’s first rate cut and China’s wide-ranging stimulus. Key US inflation data tonight is the next focus for global interest rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim sifts through India’s recent trade data to reveal why gold imports jumped in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, September 25, 2024
Thursday: Services inflation to worry RBA
Australian inflation drops within the RBA’s target band for the first time since October 2021, but sticky services prices could be a concern. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down about 1% after hitting fresh 2024 highs yesterday. Services inflation also remains sticky in Japan. In part two of a bonus Deep Dive interview on China’s stimulus drive, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains the risks of not doing more, including the prospect of a Japan-style ‘lost decade’. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, September 24, 2024
Wednesday: RBA didn't discuss rate hike
The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t consider a hike as it held rates yesterday. Aussie consumer confidence jumps to its highest since January 2023, and August inflation data later today should show the temporary impact of cost of living support. The NZ dollar hits a new 2024 high. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses yesterday’s China stimulus package and explains why it could have been bigger. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, September 23, 2024
Tuesday: Hawkish RBA could boost AUD
Federal Reserve members are backing their 50 basis point rate cut, supporting views of a soft landing. The Aussie dollar is strengthening ahead of potentially hawkish RBA rate commentary today. Expectations rise for a new China stimulus package. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch analyses how the RBA is placed for its cash rate decision today following last week’s 50 basis point cut by the Fed, and the ongoing strength in Australia’s jobs market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, September 22, 2024
Monday: Oil slide boosting Asian economies
Global markets are digesting the Fed ’s super-sized cut and the Bank of Japan ’s decision to hold its rates, as expected. Trading and investing focus now turns to RBA rates decision on Tuesday. China’s yuan surges as exporters bring cash home. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Asia Economist Krystal Tan analyses how lower oil prices are helping some South East Asian economies more than others. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, September 19, 2024
Friday: Investors celebrate soft landing signs
Global stocks are celebrating the Fed ’s big rate cut as confirmation of a soft landing. The Bank of England holds rates, as expected. The Bank of Japan is also seen holding later today. NZ GDP contracts less than the RBNZ forecast, reducing chances of an oversized cut. Australia’s jobs market continues to give the RBA a headache. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell details the trip hazards of relying on high-frequency indicators, which the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may have just fallen over with its June quarter GDP forecast. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, September 18, 2024
Thursday: The Fed's first cut is the deepest
The Fed cuts by a super-sized 50 basis points and signals a total of 200 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025. Indonesia also cuts rates. The RBA will be watching Australian jobs data today. NZ’s GDP data is expected to show a contraction. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Geopolitical Risk Cameron Mitchell reviews the rise of tariffs as economic security tools, and what to expect on tariffs from whoever wins the US Presidential elections in November. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, September 17, 2024
Wednesday: Solid US retail sales ease recession fears
Strong US retail sales ease recession fears, adding slightly to expectations of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed; Australia’s consumer confidence jumps, Singapore’s chip exports get a boost, and Bank Indonesia faces a tough rates decision today. In our bonus deep dive interview, from the recent ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia summit, ANZ Head of Geopolitical Risk Cameron Mitchell explains why themes of de-globalisation and the de-coupling of the US and Chinese economies should be looked at through a different lens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, September 16, 2024
Tuesday: Chances grow for 50bps Fed cut
Market expectations for a 50 basis point cut by the Fed grow to 50/50 amid debate over whether the US jobs market is too weak for just a 25 bps move; And the Yen hits its strongest level against the US dollar since mid-2023. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung sees the potential for China to unveil a two trillion yuan stimulus package. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, September 15, 2024
Monday: Disappointing China data dump
China is expected to launch a stimulus package after a very weak set of economic data. Global markets are focused on the Fed starting its rate-cutting cycle. The US dollar may hold up despite lower rates. NZ’s housing market is gearing up for spring. In part two of our bonus Deep Dive interview, Australia-Asia Society CEO Anthony Bubalo talked at the ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia Summit in Melbourne about the nuances businesses now face when thinking about geopolitics. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, September 12, 2024
Friday: ECB cuts & focus turns to Fed
The ECB cuts another 25 basis points, as expected. Global markets are firm ahead of next week’s Fed decision. India’s inflation is firm, but the RBI is on track to ease in December. NZ inflation is firmer than forecast, but not enough to concern the RBNZ . In our bonus Deep Dive interview, Australia-Asia Society CEO Anthony Bubalo analyses the key themes at the recent ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia Summit in Melbourne, including how Australian businesses grappling with geopolitics. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, September 11, 2024
Thursday: Stronger US inflation reduces bets of larger rate cut
US core inflation is stronger than expected in August causing markets to reduce bets for a 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, the Yen hit its strongest 2024 level against the US dollar, and Australia’s strong labour market continues to surprise the RBA. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur reviews the potential impact for businesses of expected rate cuts in Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, September 10, 2024
Wednesday: Oil slides after OPEC cuts demand forecast
Global markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data tonight. Oil slumps below US$70/bbl after a demand forecast downgrade. China’s exports jump, but sluggish imports highlight soft domestic demand. And Australia’s Stage 3 tax cuts do little to spur business or consumer confidence. In in part two of a bonus deep dive interview with Australia’s Group of 8 universities CEO Vicki Thomson at the ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia Summit, Vicki explains why Australia’s universities believe there are alternatives to the new international student cap being proposed. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, September 09, 2024
Tuesday: Weak China inflation triggers concern
US markets bed in expectations for a soft landing ahead of key price data, China’s core inflation is the lowest in three years, prompting calls for more stimulus, and Taiwan’s exports get an AI boost. In our bonus deep dive interview, from the recent ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia summit, Australia’s Group of 8 universities CEO Vicki Thomson outlines the challenges facing Australia’s education export sector. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, September 08, 2024
Monday: Fed rate cut size unresolved
Mixed US jobs data means the debate about a 25 basis point cut or a 50 point cut by the Fed next week still very alive. Australian home lending to investors, is very strong. Vietnam’s economy is in a sweet spot, with falling inflation and strong exports. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the implications for Australian Iron Ore producers from weakening Chinese steel demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, September 05, 2024
Friday: RBA Governor sends strong inflation warning
Markets were mixed ahead of key US jobs figures tonight; The RBA Governor talks tough in the fight against inflation; Malaysia keeps rates on hold, with lower inflation forecast, while Thailand’s annual CPI falls to just 0.35%. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell reviews how New Zealand’s housing headwinds might keep the market from previous form as interest rates fall. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, September 04, 2024
Thursday: RBA unlikely to be moved by weaker households
US Job vacancies were weaker than anyone expected in July, boosting chances of a larger cut by the Fed this month, Australia’s economy expands, although household spending weakens; as does China’s services sector. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes sets out the challenges OPEC producers are facing from weakening global activity. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, September 03, 2024
Wednesday: Weak US manufacturing raises slowdown concern
Global stocks fall after weak US manufacturing data raises fears about a deeper slowdown. The Australian dollar is down over 1%; Australia’s GDP today should just be in growth territory, and South Korean inflation hits the central bank’s target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga reviews Australia’s trade relationship with ASEAN, from the ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia summit in Melbourne. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, September 02, 2024
Tuesday: Australia GDP puzzle takes shape
Global markets were quiet overnight due to the US Labor Day holiday. The final pieces of Australia’s GDP puzzle fall into place today; Job ads show a cooling Australian labour market, and we look at which state capital house prices are pulling away. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman digs into New Zealand’s latest jobs data to highlight which sectors, regions and age groups are feeling the brunt of previous monetary policy tightening. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, September 01, 2024
Monday: US economy on approach for soft landing
Global markets are laser-focused on US jobs data this week to confirm the Fed can pinpoint a soft landing. Australia’s tax cuts are yet to show in retail sales growth. India’s GDP growth was below the Reserve Bank of India ’s forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains why lower headline inflation figures in Australia aren’t telling the full story. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, August 29, 2024
Friday: Rate cuts fire up NZ business confidence
US stocks are strong on more signs of a soft landing. NZ business confidence surges as rates are cut. Australian capital investment plans remain strong, and India’s GDP figures later today may send the Reserve Bank of India a dovish signal. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung unpacks how changing global supply chains are driving capital outflows from China’s manufacturers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, August 28, 2024
Thursday: Australian core inflation falling again
US stocks are trading down ahead of of chipmaker Nvidia’s results later this morning; There’s support for an ECB September cut; Australia’s inflation in July was stronger than expected, while house building remains soft; And there’s ongoing weakness in New Zealand’s jobs market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why there’s been record high outflows of capital from China in recent quarters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, August 27, 2024
Wednesday: USD nears 2024 lows
The US dollar weakened again overnight to near its low this year. Australia’s inflation figures today will be dominated by Government subsidies lowering electricity prices and there’s welcome news for the Bank of Japan in producer price inflation figures. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby explains what’s behind the rise in dairy prices recently, leading to ANZ Research to boost its NZ farmgate price forecast. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, August 26, 2024
Tuesday: Oil jumps on Mid East conflict
Oil has jumped 2-and-a-half percent on renewed conflict in the Middle East. The US dollar strengthened overnight as traders continued to digest signals out of Jackson Hole. And New Zealand’s Government rushes to try and reduce energy prices. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, explains why Vietnam is not the only big winner from the friendshoring trend to pull some parts of supply chains out of China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, August 25, 2024
Monday: Powell says it's time to cut rates
Jerome Powell says the time has come to cut rates. They may eventually 200 basis points. The Kiwi dollar is rising against the Aussie despite a smaller interest rate premium. Japan is set to keep hiking. Inflation in Singapore below forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Maddy Dunk looks at how an eventual fall in Australian interest rates might effect house prices differently in different cities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, August 22, 2024
Friday: Talk of big Fed rate cuts fading
US manufacturing contracts, keeping the Fed on course to cut next month, but Fed speakers see only gradual falls. Those comments drove Treasury yields up and stocks down this morning. PMIs in Australia and Japan have picked up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks ahead to key speeches today by the heads of the US and Japan central banks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, August 21, 2024
Thursday: US jobs growth revised down by 818k
US jobs growth is revised down, cementing Fed rate cut bets and sending the world’s reserve currency down further. Thailand and Indonesia hold rates, and Japan’s export data indicates some weakness in global demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses how Australia is tracking for a ‘soft’ economic landing after such a rapid rise in interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, August 20, 2024
Wednesday: Dual mandate stops RBA hiking
The US dollar continues to weaken as rate cut hopes solidify; RBA minutes show its dual mandate kept a rate hike in check; New Zealand house prices fell ahead of the RBNZ’s rate cut, and Indonesia could cut rates today, while Thailand looks set to hold. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton presents ANZ Research’s revised Australian economic forecasts and says why the RBA can hold until February. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, August 19, 2024
Tuesday: US dollar weakens ahead of rate clues
Markets are looking ahead this week to Jackson Hole for firmer clues on rate cuts. Currencies are already on their way - the US dollar weakening against the Yen, and the Aussie rising; Iron Ore prices are slumping, and Gold is on the bounce. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh maps out the future for Asian currencies after the unwind of the yen carry trade. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, August 18, 2024
Monday: Market focus turns to Jackson Hole
Markets are turning to Jackson Hole later this week for signs from the world’s central bankers about the speed and size of expected rate cuts. Central banks make decisions in Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea. And there’s good news from New Zealand’s economy In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes talks about the weather, and in particular what a change from El Nino to La Nina means for markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, August 15, 2024
Friday: Extra supply tempers jobs jump
US retail sales jump and give global stocks a boost. Australia’s jobs rise is tempered by rising participation. The Philippines’ central bank cuts. China’s domestic demand slumps, while Japan’s GDP gets a consumer shot in the arm. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak reviews PMI data to reveal which Asian economies are riding an AI-Technology demand boost. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, August 14, 2024
Thursday: RBNZ cuts, signals more to come
The RBNZ kicks off its easing cycle with a 25 bps rate cut. Australian jobs figures today may show when the RBA might move. US CPI inflation in July met expectations. There’s another ‘will they - won’t they’ rate decision today, in the Philippines. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner analyses why the RBNZ felt it was able to cut rates a full year ahead of its previously published forecasts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, August 13, 2024
Wednesday: Markets on edge for live RBNZ decision
Weaker-than-expected US producer prices support rate cut bets ahead of key CPI data tonight. Australian wage growth is moderating, but only slowly. And it’s a ‘will they/won’t they’ monetary policy review day in New Zealand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner looks ahead to that ‘live’ Monetary Policy Review for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand later today. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, August 12, 2024
Tuesday: Aus wages key inflation pointer for RBA
Global markets were stable overnight ahead of US price data later this week; Australian wages data today will be watched closely by the RBA, and India’s CPI dips below 4%, although perhaps only temporarily. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says the Dollar-Yen exchange rate appears have have found a near-term floor after a wild couple of weeks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, August 11, 2024
Monday: How Trump v 2.0 may hit Asian exports
Markets are bracing this week for fresh US inflation data on Wednesday night, Australia wages and jobs figures on Tuesday and Thursday, a the RBNZ’s decision on Wednesday. In China, more signs of weak retail demand are expected on Thursday. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan examines what a second Trump Presidency might mean for Asian exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, August 08, 2024
Friday: A$ jumps on hawkish RBA speech
US stocks rally on easing fears of a US recession. The Aussie dollar jumps after Governor Michele Bullock says the RBA won’t hesitate to hike and thought about hiking earlier this week. The Reserve Bank of India holds rates hawkishly. New Zealand inflation expectations drop. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains why India’s success in reaching a sustainable current account deficit is masking much needed under-investment. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, August 07, 2024
Thursday: No smoking gun for RBNZ cut
Markets were calmer overnight, with Bank of Japan officials offering reassurance that hikes won’t happen amid instability. New Zealand’s Q2 job figures left no smoking gun for an August rate cut, and the Reserve Bank of India is set to hold rates today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman analyses how Australia’s relatively stronger jobs market is attracting Kiwis across the Tasman again. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, August 06, 2024
Wednesday: RBA holds hawkishly
Global markets have regained some ground, with the Nikkei up 10.2%, US stocks up 2%. Meanwhile, the RBA held hawkishly through the turmoil, New Zealand unemployment is set to jump, and Japanese wages are on the rise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton digs into the hawkish tones and forecasts in the RBA’s statement on monetary policy yesterday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, August 05, 2024
Tuesday: Global rout widens after Nikkei crash & yen surge
The rout in global markets triggered by US recession fears and the unwinding of the yen carry trade ripped through markets overnight, although there are signs of it easing up this morning. In our bonus deep dive interview, we spoke to ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman after a day of turmoil in Asian markets to find out what on earth was going on. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, August 04, 2024
Monday: Markets fear US recession
US stocks sold off sharply on Friday night and US bond yields fell to one-year lows after weaker than expected Non Farm Payrolls data. All eyes are on the RBA tomorrow for any signs of a dovish pivot. South Korea’s inflation was hotter than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ NZ Senior Economist Miles Workman unpacks a downgrade in ANZ Research’s forecast track for NZ house prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, August 01, 2024
Friday: US 10-yr under 4% after weak ISM
US treasury yields drop sharply on more confidence the Fed can cut three times this year. The Bank of England cuts, but only just. China’s factory output contracts in July, and Australian exports to China fall. All eyes are now on US non-farm payrolls. In our bonus deep dive interview we return to our coverage of China’s weakening consumer confidence, with ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby explaining why authorities’ attempts to revive consumer demand are struggling to get traction. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, July 31, 2024
Thursday: RBA hike bets gone; BoJ hikes; FOMC holds
The Fed holds and leaves the door wide open to cut in September. The Bank of Japan hikes and says more tightening could be on the way. RBA rate hike bets are all but off, as Q2 CPI rises less than expected, sending the Aussie dollar tumbling. And oil jumps on new conflict in the Middle East. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains what the Reserve Bank of Australia will be looking for to gain confidence it can cut rates from February. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, July 30, 2024
Wednesday: Big day for interest rates
It’s a big day for global interest rates with the FOMC expected to guide on a September rate cut and speculation the Bank of Japan could hike. Anticipation is also building around Australia’s Q2 CPI, and whether it might force the RBA to raise rates. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby analyses the impact weakening consumer confidence in China is having on New Zealand’s key primary exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, July 29, 2024
Tuesday: Weaker US factories support Sept rate cut
US stocks rise and Treasury yields fall as weaker US manufacturing activity adds to signs the Fed can cut in September; the Aussie dollar continues its fall, but CPI data tomorrow could provide support, and Vietnam’s exports surge off the back of China’s supply chain diversification. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga examines what President Donald Trump version 2.0 might mean for global inflation, interest rates and trade. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, July 28, 2024
Monday: All eyes on FOMC and BoJ this week
US PCE data was in line with forecasts. The Fed is seen waiting until September before cutting, rather than this week. The Bank of Japan is expected to hike on Wednesday. The Bank of England is seen holding. NZ consumer confidence bounces. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes digs into the demand and supply issues hammering iron ore prices lower. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, July 25, 2024
Friday: US GDP stronger than expected
US GDP growth beats expectations. Tonight’s US inflation data could take the Fed within touching distance of 2% inflation. The Nikkei falls the most in eight years. South Korea’s GDP contracts, making an early rate cut more possible. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani outlines why a September rate cut by the Bank of England is looking more likely than an earlier move in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, July 24, 2024
Thursday: US stocks slump, but Yen surges
US stocks have fallen sharply on weak earnings from Tesla and tech stocks. The Bank of Canada cuts again. A surging Yen is pushing the US dollar down and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are being caught in the downdraft as well. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains what needs to happen to revive China’s domestic demand as consumers refuse to spend more, despite looser monetary policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, July 23, 2024
Wednesday: Global markets pause ahead of US data
Markets took a breather overnight to refocus on US GDP and inflation data tomorrow night. Australian consumer confidence improves as tax cuts arrive. India delivers lower Budget deficit and Singaporean inflation is below forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Senior Economist Blair Chapman analyses how Australia’s jobs market slowdown could accelerate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, July 22, 2024
Tuesday: Markets digest what Harris Presidency could mean
Kamala Harris’ backing to replace Joe Biden supports tech stocks, while a flight to safety sees the Aussie and Kiwi dollars both fall half a percent; European stocks rise on hopes of less trade friction under a Harris Presidency; And the People’s Bank of China surprises with an interest rate cut. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung extracts the meaning in a key phrase to come out last week’s Third Plenum communique, and what it means for China’s economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, July 21, 2024
Monday: Joe Biden won't stand for second term
US President Joe Biden announced this morning he won’t seek a second term. That’s after US tech stocks fell sharply on Friday night on the Crowdstrike tech outages. Australasian and Asian markets will trade first after the news. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains how Australian households are saving a lot more than many think. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, July 18, 2024
Friday: ECB holds, but set to cut twice more in 2024
The ECB holds its official interest rates and markets see an 80% chance it will be able to cut again in September. US stocks edge lower with ongoing tech stock nerves. Australian unemployment rises a bit, which is seen reassuring the RBA . In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari tracks the boom-bust cycle for lithium in recent years, due to volatility in demand for EV batteries. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, July 17, 2024
Thursday: Nasdaq hit by Trump comments
The Nasdaq is down almost 3%, especially its chip stocks, after Donald Trump said Taiwan should pay for its own defence. New Zealand’s soft inflation figures support earlier rate cuts. ANZ Research now sees a cut in November. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma analyses the risks to economic growth in Asia over the second half of the year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, July 16, 2024
Wednesday: Strong US retail sales can't dent rate cut bets
Stronger US retail sales do little to dent September rate cut hopes. Gold hit a fresh high overnight. New Zealand inflation is being watched for signs of weakness. Australian consumer confidence falls again. Bank Indonesia looks set to hold rates. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks ahead to a possible fourth set of Renminbi reforms as Chinese authorities seek to boost the effectiveness of monetary policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, July 15, 2024
Tuesday: US stocks rise on Trump bets
US stocks and the dollar firmed in the first day of trading after the assassination attempt on US Presidential candidate Donald Trump . China’s GDP growth was below expectations, and there’s further downbeat data on New Zealand’s economy. In part 2 of our bonus deep dive interview on China’s Third Plenum, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explores what the key meeting could mean for China’s private sector. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, July 14, 2024
Monday: Safe havens eyed after Trump assassination attempt
Markets are focused on safe havens after the assassination attempt on former President Trump . China’s exports are set to soften as US demand wanes. India’s CPI was above expectations, and NZ’s manufacturing sector falls deeper into recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why this week’s third plenum meeting of China’s key leaders is so important. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, July 11, 2024
Friday: CPI fall thumps Treasury yields & US$ lower
US inflation was much softer than expected overnight, which shunted down Treasury yields and the US dollar. Rates were held in Korea, but with a dovish turn, and there’s more signs of a softening New Zealand economy for the RBNZ to think about. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at how the RBA views fiscal easings in state budgets because of cost-of-living measures. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, July 10, 2024
Thursday: NZD tumbles on RBNZ 'pivot'
Ahead of US June CPI data tonight, market bets are firm for a September cut by the Fed; The New Zealand dollar tumbles as markets see the Reserve Bank pivot towards a first cut, and there are official rates decisions today in Korea and Malaysia. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner discusses the importance of next week’s Kiwi CPI after a dovish turn by the RBNZ yesterday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, July 09, 2024
Wednesday: Powell cites inflation progress, but wants more
US markets stick with September rate cut bets after the Fed Chair delivers ‘something for everyone’ in Senate appearance; Australian consumers are more gloomy after headlines the RBA could hike, and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank is expected to hold rates later today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses where both the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are headed this year - and which looks set to come out on top. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, July 08, 2024
Tuesday: Markets wait on Powell, US CPI
Global markets are treading water this morning ahead of Congressional testimonies from Fed Chair Jay Powell and US CPI numbers. Meanwhile in Australia, housing lending dropped in May, dragged down by a sopping wet New South Wales. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk explains why Western Australia is performing so well in ANZ’s Stateometer report. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, July 07, 2024
Monday: Expectations growing that Fed can cut in Sept
Global stocks begin the week at record highs after soft US jobs data boosted hopes the Fed will cut in September. European markets are on tenterhooks for French election results. And inflation in Thailand and the Philippines is weaker than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur explains how exports are driving growth in Asia as consumption moderates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, July 04, 2024
Friday: Pound & euro firm ahead of election results
European markets firm ahead of election results. Markets are quiet on Independence Day holiday ahead of key US non-farm payrolls jobs figures tonight. And strong iron ore exports can’t stop Australia’s trade surplus from narrowing. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at the potential effect on markets and the Euro of the possible results in Sunday’s French election. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, July 03, 2024
Thursday: Soft US data supports rate cut bets
Expectations the Fed will cut in September firm after softer US jobs and services data; Australia’s retail sales and building approvals are surprisingly strong; China’s services growth weakens, while price pressures fall in Japan. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses how the pound might react under different British election result scenarios. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, July 02, 2024
Wednesday: Powell cites inflation progress
Fed Chair Jerome Powell supports rate cut bets by citing progress on inflation and jobs, although stronger jobs data tempers the market reaction. The RBA ’s board minutes show a hike is on the table, and New Zealand price pressures ease. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Analyst Daniel Hynes looks at how commodity prices are generally boosted during rate cutting cycles. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, July 01, 2024
Tuesday: US Treasury yields jump on Trump
US Treasury yields jump on growing expectations Donald Trump will win the US Presidency and run looser fiscal policy. European stocks rise after a smaller-than-expected win by France’s right wing. The Yen hits a fresh 38-year low. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains how Australia’s inflation cycle compares to the rest of the world, and why services inflation is so sticky. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, June 30, 2024
Monday: PCE bolsters Sept rate cut hope
US PCE inflation data on Friday has boosted bets the Fed can cut in September. Markets will focus on US jobs data this week. Today’s Tankan survey will give clues on whether the Bank of Japan can hike again in July. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains why ANZ has lifted its Q2 forecast for Australian inflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, June 27, 2024
Friday: US rate cut bets rise ahead of PCE
Soft US data has lifted bets for Fed rate cuts this year ahead of May’s PCE inflation print today. There’s good news on inflation pressures in New Zealand. The Philippines central bank holds rates, but looks to pull its easing cycle forward. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why Chinese authorities are pushing for the RMB to become a global reserve currency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, June 26, 2024
Thursday: High CPI worsens RBA headache
There’s a headache for the RBA after Australia’s CPI indicator rose more than expected in May. And the Yen weakened overnight through 160 to the US dollar, to its lowest level since 1986. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses recent ‘de-dollarisation.’ Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, June 25, 2024
Wednesday: RBA hike talk shrugged off
US consumer confidence dips, but the US dollar rises as a Fed Governor says she’s not ruling out rate hikes. Australia’s inflation rate is set to tick up May, while consumer confidence held steady despite talk of higher interest rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks behind the headlines of the largest copper glut in China in four years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, June 24, 2024
Tuesday: Hopes firm Fed can cut in Sept
Expectations firm for a September rate cut by the Fed. The Yen holds steady after fresh jaw-boning. A strong Singapore dollar contains inflation, and import data for New Zealand shows some sectors are struggling. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers looks at how the Reserve Bank of Australia’s tone has become more hawkish at the same time as other central banks have started to ease policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, June 23, 2024
Monday: Eyes on US PCE for Fed clues
Markets start the week off the back of concerns on Friday that the US Fed might delay rate cuts after June’s stronger PMI - all eyes are on PCE data this Friday; And the Yen starts the week on the back foot. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhoapeng Xing analyses the significant changes on the way for China’s monetary policy regime. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, June 20, 2024
Friday: Surprise Swiss National Bank rate cut
The Swiss National Bank surprises with a rate cut. The Bank of England holds as expected, and New Zealand exits recession…just. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan explains how the outlook for monetary policy in Japan has evolved during the quarter. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, June 19, 2024
Thursday: UK services inflation sticks
UK CPI inflation hits 2%, but services inflation remains stubbornly high. All eyes are on the Bank of England tonight. Indonesia’s central bank is set to hold rates, while Bank of Japan board minutes show growing concern over the weak Yen. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why ANZ has pared back its 2024 ECB rate cut expectations. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, June 18, 2024
Wednesday: Hawkish RBA discussed hike
The RBA turns more hawkish, saying it considered a rate hike but not a cut when it met yesterday; Weak US retail sales give hope for two Fed rate cuts this year; And strong Euro services inflation sees ANZ reduce its call on ECB rate cuts in 2024. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Economist Henry Russell continues his analysis of sticky domestic inflation and how worried it might be making the Reserve Bank of New Zealand . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, June 17, 2024
Tuesday: RBA commentary in focus
Markets were mixed overnight, with equities, US Treasury yields and the oil price all rising. The RBA is expected to hold today, but what it says about inflation is being closely watched. And there are glimmers of hope for China’s domestic demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Economist Henry Russell explains why it’s so important for central banks to get on top sticky non-tradable or domestic inflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, June 16, 2024
Monday: Soft US data reassures Fed watchers
Global stocks and bonds begin the week on the front foot after more soft US economic data reinforced hopes for a Fed rate cut in Q3. Partial inflation figures in New Zealand are softer than expected. The Bank of Japan surprises by not hiking. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh has surveyed the 11 economies in Asia outside of China and Japan and found seven grew GDP more than expected in the March quarter. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, June 13, 2024
Friday: Australia's jobs market loosens
Softer than expected US inflation data drags US yields down again. Australia’s unemployment rate drops, but falling hours worked indicate a softer labour market. Taiwan’s central bank holds rates, but the Bank of Japan could hike later today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing explains why additional stimulus should be expected sometime later this year, as China’s domestic demand remains weak. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, June 12, 2024
Thursday: Fed holds with higher dot plot
The Fed has held US rates and reduced its ‘dot plot’ forecast to just one cut in 2024 from three. Earlier, a lower-than-expected US May CPI sent Treasury yields tumbling and stocks surging to record highs. Inflation in India and China was also softer than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, NZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says Asia’s heatwave is putting huge pressure on energy grids already dealing with greater electrification, boosting demand in particular for LNG. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, June 11, 2024
Wednesday: Stocks weaker ahead of Fed
US stocks weaken ahead of Fed rate decision; European markets continue to be buffeted by Macron’s French election call; Australian businesses grow gloomier, but the RBA still has a headache; and China’s CPI later today is being watched for any signs of domestic demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton takes us through ANZ Research’s call change for when the RBA will begin rate cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, June 10, 2024
Tuesday: Eyes ahead to FOMC and CPI
European stocks fall after French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision to call Parliamentary elections he is forecast to lose. We preview the Fed’s decision this week, and look out to US inflation data In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner talks about why she sees the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting in February next year, rather than May. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, June 06, 2024
Friday: ECB cuts, but reluctantly
The ECB cuts rates overnight as expected, but reluctantly. Australian housing lending jumps in April as rental property investors build up a head of steam, while building work slows in New Zealand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes reviews the OPEC+ meeting earlier this week and its impact on the oil market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, June 05, 2024
Thursday: Australia hangs on to growth (just)
Stronger US services activity is shrugged off as rate cut hopes increase off the back of a cut by Bank of Canada and expectations the ECB will also move. Australia’s economy hangs onto growth, boosted by stronger household consumption. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch highlights work Australia’s Fair Work Commission is undertaking on gender undervaluation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, June 04, 2024
Wednesday: India's election curveball
India’s election throws a curveball into the markets, with Narendra Modi’s BJP failing to secure a majority; US markets increase Fed rate cut bets after soft job openings data; And in Australia, weaker net export figures could be a drag on GDP data out today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim outlines what India’s election result could mean for fiscal and monetary policy there following the election result. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, June 03, 2024
Tuesday: Weak US data thumps yields lower
US Treasury yields and stocks fell overnight as weak manufacturing and construction data indicated monetary policy is reducing demand in the US; The Aussie and Kiwi are up as the US dollar fell. Oil fell 3.7% on supply news out of OPEC+ . India’s Nifty 50 stocks index rose 3.3% after exit polls indicated a third term for PM Narendra Modi. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak looks at why imports across Asia have started to improve since bottoming out last year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, June 02, 2024
Monday: Markets set to celebrate Modi win
India’s markets are expected to celebrate after exit polls saw Narendra Modi winning a third term. India’s GDP was also above forecasts. China’s factory activity contracted in May. Australia’s Fair Work Commission is set to slow minimum wage inflation. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur explains how extreme temperatures in India, the Philippines and Indonesia are upending rice markets again. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, May 30, 2024
Friday: Tax cuts from July 31 may worry RBNZ
Global markets are mixed ahead of US PCE data. US bond yields slide from highs, dragging the US dollar down. New Zealand’s new Government delivers tax cuts and more borrowing, which may worry the Reserve Bank . In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen explains why he believes Fiji has a three-speed economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, May 29, 2024
Thursday: Fed rate cut bets pushed out
Fed rate cut bets are pushed out ahead of US economic and price data. Australian inflation was stronger-than expected in April, while construction fell surprisingly in Q1. Vietnam’s CPI is on the rise, and it’s Budget Day in New Zealand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing explains why moves in recent days to loosen home buying rules in China’s largest cities will do little to prop up demand . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, May 28, 2024
Wednesday: Why the RBA might care that Aussies are drinking cheaper booze
US consumer confidence rises while Australians grow gloomier. Rising rice prices are expected to feed into Vietnam inflation data. Aussies are drinking cheaper booze. We look at what that might tell the RBA . In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains how car insurance pricing in the US has been causing issues for headline CPI inflation, and what it could mean for the Fed. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, May 27, 2024
Tuesday: ECB rate cut bets boosted
ECB rate cut bets were boosted after its French Governor suggested a July cut could follow after June. Chinese industrial profits rose in April, after March weakness. We also look at the weaker Yuan and the Philippine Peso in recent days. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman reveals what happened to the US dollar in her study of the eight Fed easing cycles since 1990. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, May 26, 2024
Monday: Eyes ahead to US, Australia & European inflation data
Markets are oscillating in tune with their views on when the Fed can cut, and it’s still not clear. We look ahead to Australian inflation data on Wednesday and New Zealand’s Budget on Thursday. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses what China’s recent property market support package could mean for steel demand and the iron ore price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, May 23, 2024
Friday: Rates seen high for longer after strong US PMIs
Global PMI surveys suggest the US economy is rollicking along in a way that might force the Fed to keep rates high for even longer. New Zealand retail sales bounce and there’s hope tax cuts in next week’s budget might give them more of a boost. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny reviews how the Bank of Japan ’s commentary has shifted in recent months, and why that points to more rate hikes. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, May 22, 2024
Thursday: RBNZ turns hawkish; BoE might too
Stronger than expected inflation in the UK pushes out rate cut bets, as PM Sunak calls a snap election; New Zealand’s Reserve Bank turns hawkish and pushes out rate cuts; Indonesia holds rates; Singapore’s core inflation is expected to rise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks ahead to a key meeting of global oil producers, and what it could mean for supply and the oil price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, May 21, 2024
Wednesday: Hurdle for RBA hikes is lifted
Global markets are flat ahead of Fed minutes. The RBA board discussed a rate hike more than was thought. Aussie renters feel more confident after the Budget. There are rate decisions today in New Zealand and Indonesia . In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at why global oil demand has been dragged down recently. One reason is Americans are driving less. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, May 20, 2024
Tuesday: Yields still too low to unleash China's home buyers
US Fed officials see disinflation progress and indicate rate rises are unlikely. US dollar firms further vs the Yen. China property prices would need to fall 35% to trigger buyer interest because rental yields are still too low, says ANZ China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman looks at why New Zealand’s soggy economic outlook is unlikely to get much support from the RBNZ , which is expected to hold rates at 5.5% tomorrow. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, May 19, 2024
Monday: China launches property rescue plan
China has announced a major rescue package to buy unsold apartments and remove restrictions for homebuyers. New Zealand’s economy is soggy, but shouldn’t expect help from a rate cut any time soon. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses what labour costs across Southeast Asian economies say about their regional competitiveness and productivity. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, May 16, 2024
Friday: Australian labour market may be weaker than the RBA thinks
The Dow rises through 40,000. Fed speakers see monetary policy working. US jobless claims and factory output data reinforce hopes for a rate cut or cuts later this year. Australia’s labour market may be softening faster than the RBA is expecting. In our bonus deep dive interview, following on from our coverage of China’s politburo declaring they want to reduce unsold property inventories, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung say they need to be careful from a financial stability perspective that prices don’t drop too much. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, May 15, 2024
Thursday: Soft US CPI supports rate cut hopes
US Treasury yields are down after April CPI was softer than expected, but the Fed may still want to wait. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars jump. Good news for the RBA as Australian wage growth peaks. Japan’s economy may have contracted in Q1. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman discusses ANZ’s call this week that the US dollar won’t weaken as much over the year as previously expected. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, May 14, 2024
Wednesday: Budget leaves RBA track unchanged
The US Fed Chair shrugs off stronger US producer prices ahead of CPI data tonight. Power rebates & tax cuts turn Australian budget surpluses into deficits, but also cut inflation. New Zealand’s property market continues to struggle. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why monetary policies of the world’s major central banks are diverging. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, May 13, 2024
Tuesday: Markets tight ahead of US CPI
Markets are holding tight ahead of US price data. Australian business condition fall is ok for the RBA . India’s food prices rise, but inflation close to forecast. There was good and bad news on New Zealand’s inflation front. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung says the Chinese Politburo’s recent shift on property policy shows authorities are facing up to the reality of high inventories and low demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, May 12, 2024
Monday: Australian Budget in focus
Global stocks start the week near record highs, with all eyes on US inflation figures for confirmation the Fed can ease this year. China’s economy is showing early signs of recovery. New Zealand manufacturing is still contracting, but at a slower rate In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Head of Economics Adam Boyton previews the Australian Federal Budget due at 7.30pm Canberra time on Tuesday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, May 09, 2024
Friday: Bank of England eyes rate cut soon
The Bank of England holds and says it will cut rates within a month or two. Malaysia’s central bank is more upbeat about growth as it holds. China’s exports rebound, and in the Philippines, soft consumer spending drags on GDP growth. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman looks at the uncertainties shrouding New Zealand’s housing market right now, and how developments in Auckland might affect the rest of the country. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, May 08, 2024
Thursday: Fed President patient on rates
The Boston Fed President says rates are likely to be held for longer. The Bank of Japan’s governor says big yen moves are undesirable. Taiwan’s exports are weaker than expected. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur recalibrates when Asian central banks might be able to cut, given changing expectations about when and how much the Fed cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, May 07, 2024
Wednesday: RBA 'less hawkish' than expected
US rate cut optimism is growing with soft US labour market data. The RBA was less hawkish than expected, but won’t rule anything in or out. Australian consumers are really feeling the pinch. Inflation stays on target in Taiwan and the Philippines. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data is underpinning global commodity prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, May 06, 2024
Tuesday: How hawkish will the RBA turn?
US stocks rise as traders find comfort in Fed rate cut hopes; All eyes on how hawkish the RBA will turn today; Indonesia’s GDP is supported by election spending; and holiday travel data shows Chinese consumers may be coming out of their shells. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses the outlook for the US dollar and Treasuries if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential election in November. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, May 05, 2024
Monday: Soft US jobs drive yields, USD down
US jobs growth was weaker than expected, so US bonds and stocks rallied. US Treasury yields and the US dollar fell. The RBA is expected to hold hawkishly tomorrow. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at what a Donald Trump re-election could mean for the US-China bilateral relationship. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, May 02, 2024
Friday: Relief as Powell rules out rate hike
US bond yields fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to rule out rate hikes. Japanese authorities may have intervened again to hold up the yen. South Korean and Indonesian inflation eases. Australia’s record imports suggest demand is holding up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby looks at how global economic developments, and the weather, are affecting demand for New Zealand’s key primary exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, May 01, 2024
Thursday: Fed holds, cites lack of progress towards 2%
The US Federal Reserve has kept rates on hold and signaled a lack of progress towards its 2% inflation goal in recent months. New Zealand’s labour market weakens, but wage growth is still high. The copper price has been on a roll in 2024. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty looks at how non-China Asia exports have been supported this year by strong US demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, April 30, 2024
Wednesday: Firm US wages harden views on high rates for longer
Stronger US wage data adds to fears rates will be on hold for longer. Core inflation progress in Europe supports a June cut by the ECB. China’s factory output rises. Weak Australian retail sales cause a rethink on the RBA’s rate track. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Economist Miles Workman looks closely at why consumers in New Zealand are so down in the dumps. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, April 29, 2024
Tuesday: US dollar sags back from 160 yen
The yen bounces hard after slumping through 160. Some think Japan’s authorities intervened, but there’s no confirmation. ANZ Research has changed its expectation for Fed rate cuts this year to two 25 basis point cuts from four. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at how the RBA might react if Australia’s stage 3 tax cuts improve consumer confidence, which is now near 1990s-recession level lows. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, April 28, 2024
Monday: Stuck between rates heaven & hell
The US dollar has spiked up over 158 yen. Traders are on high alert for intervention by Japanese authorities. Market expectations for rate cuts by the Fed and RBA keep being pushed out. New Zealand consumer confidence falls again In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at why Australian consumer confidence is at 1990s-style recession-level lows and when it might pick up. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, April 25, 2024
Friday: Rates seen high for even longer
US stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose after US growth and inflation data was worse than expected. Australia’s strong CPI could shift the RBA’s rate cut track out. Indonesia hikes rates to bolster its currency and South Korea’s GDP beats forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur looks at what central banks across Asia face in terms of monetary policy and their currencies if the US Fed delays rate cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, April 23, 2024
Wednesday: PMIs support rate cut hopes
Global PMIs offer hope for an earlier US rate cut, an ECB cut in June, and an easing by the Bank of England in August. Australian inflation is set to keep easing. Currency volatility means a rate hike is not off the table in Indonesia. In part two of our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga offers some pragmatic suggestions for improving housing affordability in Australia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, April 22, 2024
Tuesday: Stocks up, but oil & gold fall on easing tensions
Global stocks are on the rise, while gold and oil prices fell overnight on easing tensions in the Middle East. Chinese authorities move to boost Hong Kong’s stock market. The copper price is on a tear. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes a closer look at Australia’s worsening housing affordability, and why boosting housing supply may not be enough on its own. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, April 21, 2024
Monday: Markets watching bond yields & USD closest
Global markets start the week nervously eyeing the Middle East and key US data later this week. Asian currencies are jittery near record lows against a rampant USD. The RBA will hope for lower inflation data in Australia on Wednesday In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why silver is finally jumping on gold’s fast-rising coat-tails. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, April 18, 2024
Friday: Firm US factory data lifts yields & USD
US bond yields rise again on strong factory data. Australian unemployment rises, but firms still expect labour market tightness. Next week’s CPI could be crucial for the RBA . Japan’s inflation rate is expected to slow. but don’t expect the BoJ to budge. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains what is driving a surge in capital investment in India, and whether it can continue to drive GDP growth. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, April 17, 2024
Thursday: UK and NZ inflation concerns
Sticky UK inflation has dashed mid-year rate cut hopes. Strong domestic inflation in New Zealand is a concern for the central bank, but the ECB looks on track to start rate cuts in June. Oil is down 3% on global demand concerns. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman details four reasons why the US dollar has been so strong in recent weeks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, April 16, 2024
Wednesday: Rampant US$ triggers intervention
A surging US dollar triggers currency intervention across Asia. Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for even longer. China’s GDP outstrips expectations, but weak domestic demand means further stimulus is expected. NZ inflation data due. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani details what’s at stake for fiscal policy and the rupee in India’s general election, starting on Friday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, April 15, 2024
Tuesday: Bond yields jump on strong US retail sales
US Treasury yields rose after stronger retail sales data showed consumers are still spending. Oil fell as Middle East conflict fears eased. Dollar/Yen slid through 154 for the first time since 1990. Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down against a stronger USD. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga highlights the quiet achievements of Japan as it emerges from a period of shrinkanomics and the lessons it can teach others with declining populations. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, April 14, 2024
Monday: All eyes on Middle East conflicts
Markets are on tenterhooks to see how Israel reacts to Iran’s weekend attacks. The US dollar is strong, while the Aussie and Kiwi dollars begin the week down. Oil is up. In our bonus deep dive interview currencies, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman is watching the yen and US dollar closely, and sees news from the Middle East limiting any bounces for the Aussie dollar. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, April 11, 2024
Friday: ECB on track to cut before Fed
The ECB held its policy rate overnight and remains on track to cut in June - before the Fed . China inflation data weaker than expected. Singapore’s GDP figures to include a Taylor Swift effect. Traders are on yen intervention watch. In our bonus deep dive interview on the oil outlook, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says any jump towards US$100/bbl is likely to spark an OPEC supply response. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, April 10, 2024
Thursday: Strong CPI hits US rate cut hopes
A strong US CPI has pushed back expectations for a fully-priced rate cut by the Fed from July to November. US Treasury yields are up 20 basis points and US stocks fell. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars have fallen more than 1% this morning. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, has reviewed March PMI data for Asia’s main economies (ex-China), and says India’s exceptionalism showed through. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, April 09, 2024
Wednesday: US yields fall on CPI hopes
Treasury yields fall on hopes inflation is moderating. The Yen firms after reports the BoJ may raise its inflation outlook. Taiwan’s CPI is lower than forecast. Australian consumers see higher inflation. The RBNZ is expected to hold its cash rate. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani looks at what’s at stake in South Korea’s general election today for fiscal and monetary policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, April 08, 2024
Tuesday: Traders reduce Fed cut bets
US Treasury yields hit fresh 2024 highs overnight as traders continued to reprice expectations for Fed rate cuts. The Philippines’ central bank holds but turns hawkish on inflation risks. Australia’s housing imbalance is expected to keep supporting prices. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains what’s driving gold’s stunning rally. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, April 07, 2024
Monday: Markets eye rate cuts by ECB, Fed
Stronger than forecast US jobs growth pushed up Treasury yields on Friday night, but wage growth was more moderate, leaving the Fed still on track for a rate cut in July. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen says Fiji needs to build four-and-a-half thousand new hotel rooms over the next decade. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, April 04, 2024
Friday: Eyes ahead to 200k US jobs growth
All eyes are on US non-farm payrolls tonight. Australian households spent plenty going to Taylor Swift concerts; Building approvals weaken on both sides of the Tasman, and Kiwi house values track sideways. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks at why you paid so much more for your Easter eggs this year - a soaring cocoa price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, April 03, 2024
Thursday: Powell says 'wait and see'
US jobs growth beat expectations overnight, but was offset by weaker services sector growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in ‘wait and see’ mode on rate cuts this year. Gold is over US$2,300/oz this morning. Australian consumers expect higher inflation In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan looks at the inflation and interest rate outlooks across Asia for the rest of 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, April 02, 2024
Wednesday: Stocks fall on rate cut caution
Global stock markets weakened overnight on further evidence that interest rates might stay higher for longer. Oil hit its highest price since October last year on fears around global supply, and Australian house prices continue their march upward. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin , says the US Federal Reserve and the ECB won’t want real interest rates to rise as inflation falls. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, April 01, 2024
Tuesday: US rate cut bets retreat
Treasury yields are jumping as strong US manufacturing data increases doubt about a rate cut by the Fed in June. That broke a surge in the Gold price, which had earlier hit a new high overnight. China’s manufacturing activity is also on the rise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin , says this quarter’s data is where the rubber will meet the road for whether central banks can cut rates this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, March 27, 2024
Thursday: Australian inflation shakes off Taylor Swift
Markets are on yen intervention alert. Australian inflation data was softer than expected. China’s industrial profits beat expectations. And New Zealand’s Government is set to borrow more as its economy slows. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen explains why Papua New Guinea’s depreciating currency is not driving structural change. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, March 26, 2024
Wednesday: Inside a herd of FX forecasters
Markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data and Easter holidays for many. US consumers feel more confident. Australian renters are much less confident than home owners. New Zealand budget policy detail is due later today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Data Scientist Somayeh Shiri reveals her findings from an analysis of herding behaviour among foreign exchange forecasters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, March 25, 2024
Tuesday: Emerging Asia rides AI chips boom
Markets are unsettled this morning, with oil and gold up solidly on geo-political concerns in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. There’s more Fed -speak and ECB -speak about when rates might be cut, and by how much. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur sorts through emerging Asia’s Q4 GDP data to find the winners and themes, especially with the boom in advanced chip manufacturing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, March 24, 2024
Monday: RBA still on track for November cut
The US$ starts the week strong vs the A$, NZ$ and yen after a dovish BoJ hike and markets seeing fewer Fed rate cuts this year. Market attention is on Australian inflation data on Wednesday for signals on whether the RBA can cut in November. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes visits China and finds surprisingly resilient demand for iron ore. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, March 21, 2024
Friday: Surprisingly, Taiwan hikes and SNB cuts
Taiwan’s central bank hikes unexpectedly, while the Swiss National Bank surprises with the first rate cut of the majors. The Bank of England holds. Strong Australian jobs growth hits hopes for an early rate cut from the RBA. New Zealand is in recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung surveys the seven key ‘ D ’ risks facing China in the year of the D ragon, starting with D eflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, March 20, 2024
Thursday: Fed holds, but sees one less cut in 2025
The Fed has just held its Fed Funds Rate as expected, but has raised dot plot track by around 25 basis points in 2025. British inflation slowed in February, but the Bank of England is still expected to hold; The BoJ is watching a weak yen closely, and New Zealand GDP today could show a technical recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman investigates a new trend of Australian job seekers holding off starting new jobs in January, and why that could affect today’s February jobs numbers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, March 19, 2024
Wednesday: BoJ hikes and RBA turns dovish
The Bank of Japan has scrapped negative interest rates, hiking for the first time in 17 years. The Yen fell. US Treasury yields also fell ahead of the Fed’s decision tonight. The RBA held, but turned slightly dovish, which pushed the Aussie dollar down. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks at how record US oil output changes the outlook for oil prices this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, March 18, 2024
Tuesday: Traders reduce bets Fed will cut in June
US Treasury yields and the dollar rose overnight as traders pared back expectations of the Fed ’s rate cuts. Japan’s Nikkei closed up over 2.5% on expectations of a dovish Bank of Japan hike today, and the RBA is set to hold, but maintain a tightening bias In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says New Zealand is at risk of a credit rating downgrade because of a high current account deficit. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, March 17, 2024
Monday: Eyes on Bank of Japan for historic move
The Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are all scheduled to make rates decisions this week. The BoJ may even hike. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ strategist Soni Kumari analyses how China’s shift to renewable power is shifting demand for commodities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, March 14, 2024
Friday: US PPI inflation hotter than forecast
US producer price inflation data was hotter than expected. US bond yields are up, as is the US dollar. US stocks are down. House prices in New Zealand are flat, although net migration to NZ set new record highs. Iron ore could fall under US$100/tonne. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung wraps up his analysis of China’s National People’s Congress and explains why the focus is shifting away from the annual growth target to longer-term structural reform. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, March 13, 2024
Thursday: Oil jumps after Russian refinery explosions
Oil prices surge after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. US stocks dip ahead of key retail sales data. The Bank of Japan is set to hike to 0.0% as wages surge. The ECB is seen cutting in June. Inflation in New Zealand may beat the RBNZ ’s forecast. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains how a two-tiered property system is emerging in China as authorities promote affordable housing over the private market, which could take pressure off a supply glut. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, March 12, 2024
Wednesday: US core CPI higher-than-expected
US core inflation was stronger than expected in February. Bond yields rose, but stock markets shrugged it off. India’s CPI was held up by food prices. Australian businesses see price rises, while consumers feel better. New Zealand retail spending drops. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains how China’s property supply is running well ahead of demand, with three-and-a-half years worth of unsold residential property piling up as demand weakens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, March 11, 2024
Tuesday: Just how sticky is US inflation?
Markets are in a holding pattern as traders wait to see how sticky US inflation was in February. Japan’s recession was revised away. The Bank of Japan is expected to end negative rates in next Monday or in April. India’s inflation rate is expected to be steady. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains how the Reserve Bank of India may have over-delivered on its inflation target, and how it might be loosening monetary conditions through the repo markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, March 10, 2024
Monday: When a demographic dividend fades
US non-farm payrolls were mixed, allowing markets to keep betting the Fed will start cutting in June. The ECB may cut before the Fed. The yen is rising on talk the Bank of Japan may finally hike. RBA watchers are focused on business confidence this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sanjay Mathur looks at how ASEAN economies can overcome a fading demographic dividend by investing in ICT infrastructure and human capital to keep GDP growing faster than 5%. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, March 07, 2024
Friday: Markets eye June cuts from Fed & ECB
US stocks and gold surge to fresh record highs. The ECB is set to cut rates in June. China’s exports beat expectations and all eyes are on US non-farm payrolls tonight for 200,000 jobs growth. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at what’s driving a divergence in the economic and budget performances of Australia’s states and territories. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, March 06, 2024
Thursday: US Fed to cut rates this year
Jerome Powell say the Fed can cut rates this year, sending stocks up and Treasury yields down. Australian growth may be bottoming out. Gold rose over US$2,150/oz to a new record highs overnight. All eyes are on the ECB rates decision tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny reviews the most recent fiscal projections for the US Government and explains how political polarisation is affecting the US’s credit rating. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, March 05, 2024
Wednesday: China targets 5% growth again
China is targeting 5% GDP growth again, but debate is intense on how it’ll get there. Gold and bitcoin hit record highs. Australian exports are helping GDP growth. South Korea’s factories are humming. Prices in the Philippines rose more than forecast. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan explains how Asian central banks are bracing for the Fed ’s first rate cut. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, March 04, 2024
Tuesday: Gold near record high on rate cut bets
Global stock and bond markets are mostly steady ahead of Fed testimony and non-farm payrolls data later this week. Gold lurched up to near record highs of over US$2,100/oz. All eyes in China are on the National People’s Congress for a new GDP target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing highlights the role climate policy will play in this week’s National People’s Congress. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, March 03, 2024
Monday: Eyes ahead to ECB, Bank of Canada
Interest rate markets are poised for interest rate decisions in Europe and Canada this week. US stocks hit fresh record highs, as did gold after more falls in US bond yields. China’s National People’s Congress meets In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Sustainable Finance Katharine Tapley talks about green bond issuance in 2024 in the wake of last year’s COP. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, February 29, 2024
Friday: Inside India's surging demand for copper
US inflation data met forecasts and markets still see the Fed cutting later this year. India’s GDP growth data overnight was much stronger than expected, but there’s a statistical quirk. Australian business investment intentions are rising. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why demand for copper will stay strong, even as China’s demand fades. It’s all about India.
Wed, February 28, 2024
Thursday: Central bank buying bolster gold
The Kiwi dollar falls 1.3% after the RBNZ pivots away from rate hike talk. The Aussie dollar is down 0.75% after softer-than-expected inflation data. The S&P 500 is flat ahead of key US inflation data tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari explains why central banks are buying more gold, and why it will continue to push the precious metal’s price towards US$2,200/oz by year-end. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, February 27, 2024
Wednesday: D-Day for RBNZ's cash rate
Global markets are wary as another Fed President sees “no rush” to cut rates. Japan’s inflation data is surprisingly warm. AI chip demand drives surprise rise in Taiwan exports. Australia’s annual inflation rate is set to rise, and it’s a ‘live’ decision day for the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate. In part two of our bonus deep dive interview on Australia’s housing market, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell looks at the strength of household balance sheets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, February 26, 2024
Tuesday: Traders eye critical US inflation print
Global stocks are treading water as traders turn their attention to critical US inflation data later this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell takes a closer look at the housing supply and demand drivers behind slower price growth expected in 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, February 25, 2024
Monday: Focus on possible RBNZ rate hike
Global stocks are paused on their global highs. Markets are turning their focus to a potential hike in the RBNZ’s cash rate and Australian inflation figures on Wednesday. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen finds a lack of funding for infrastructure investment is holding back the Pacific’s economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, February 22, 2024
Friday: Nvidia powers stocks to new highs
Global stocks surging to record highs after Nvidia’s very strong results. US yields and US$ rise after FOMC minutes and speakers are cautious about an early rate cut. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty reviews strong growth of foreign direct investment into Vietnam, particularly from Chinese firms setting up manufacturing there. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, February 21, 2024
Thursday: Australian wages rising faster than prices -- just
Australian wages rose faster than prices for the first time in three years. Chinese stocks jump after new selling bans were imposed. A Fed President makes hawkish comments. Indonesia holds its main policy rate. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at opportunities in 2024 from politics, Asia and climate trends — it’s not all just about interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, February 20, 2024
Wednesday: Lukewarm response to China rate cut
China cut a key interest rate to support a sagging property market, although markets reacted mildly as traders await comments from three Fed speakers and FOMC minutes; RBA minutes show focus on sticky services inflation ahead of key wage data today; Green shoots in NZ discretionary spending could get RBNZ attention. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari looks at a looming supply shortage for platinum, just as car makers and the hydrogen economy start using more of it. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, February 19, 2024
Tuesday: China opens soft after Lunar New Year
China stocks underwhelmed as markets opened after the Lunar New Year. The US dollar is expected to be strong through the first quarter. ANZ Research looks at a scenario for a 7% OCR in New Zealand. Thailand’s economy grew less than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why oil prices haven’t spiked much, despite widening conflicts in the Middle East. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, February 18, 2024
Monday: RBNZ's Orr on inflation's tough last mile
China’s consumers travelled and spent more during the just-completed Lunar New Year holidays than in 2019. The RBA will watch this week’s Australian wages figures like a hawk. The RBNZ says the last mile of inflation reduction will be hard. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why there’s a growth and interest rate divide opening up between the United States and the rest of the world. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, February 15, 2024
Friday: Markets shrug off weaker Aussie jobs
Markets shrugged off weaker Australian jobs figures. UK and Japan GDP fell. US retail sales were weak. NZ migration was at record highs in 2023, which the RBNZ Governor is watching as an inflationary factor. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma reviews the decisive win by Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming in Indonesia’s Presidential elections, which has buoyed financial markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, February 14, 2024
Thursday: Markets up as US CPI digested
US markets bounced overnight after traders took stock of stronger-than-expected inflation, and as a Fed President said higher monthly inflation was still consistent with the Fed’s 2% target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman explains why full time employment growth in Australia might be set to taper off, and what that could mean for the RBA . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, February 13, 2024
Wednesday: Firmer US CPI delays Fed cut views
US prices grew faster than expected in January, reducing hopes for a March rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The strong reading sent stock markets down, while US bond yields and the US dollar surged. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty looks at how a US ‘friendshoring’ pivot away from China is pushing up US costs and prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, February 12, 2024
Tuesday: S&P 500 hits fresh record highs
The S&P 500 has pushed even further above 5,000 ahead of US inflation data tonight. India’s inflation rate decelerated in line with expectations in January as food price rises slowed. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma explains what’s at stake in Indonesia’s elections starting tomorrow. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, February 11, 2024
Monday: ANZ Research changes RBNZ call
The S&P 500 starts the week at a fresh record high of just over 5,000 and ANZ Research has changed its call for the RBNZ’s OCR to two more hikes to 6%. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains the call change and how the RBNZ has set precedents before. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, February 08, 2024
Friday: China's deflation worsens to GFC levels
Faster-than-forecast deflation in China is raising expectations of more stimulus. The Reserve Bank of India held overnight, but more hawkishly than expected. The chances of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking in three weeks is rising. In our bonus deep dive interview around the Lunar New Year, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at China’s energy transformation in the ‘fire era’ out to 2043, and what that means for the rest of the world. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, February 07, 2024
Thursday: Record-high S&P 500 nears 5,000
The S&P 500 rose more than 0.5% to record highs near 5,000 after strong US corporate earnings and rate cut comments from the Fed’s Neel Kashkari . In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung has looked at what typically happens to birth rates in the year of the dragon, and why this Lunar New Year may be different. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, February 06, 2024
Wednesday: A$ firmer on still-hawkish RBA
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are opening a bit stronger after the RBA’ s hold decision yesterday was a touch more hawkish than some expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Economist Andre Castaing says the RBNZ ’s proposed loosening of loan to value ratio restrictions is expected to boost demand for housing later in 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, February 05, 2024
Tuesday: A new era begins for the RBA
All eyes are on the RBA’ s first cash rate decision of 2024 today, which is also its first with a new two-day board meeting that releases new forecasts and has a news conference all at once. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why US GDP and services inflation remains so resilient that the Fed is having to wait until the middle of 2024 to cut the Fed Funds rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, February 04, 2024
Monday: Jobs jump throws cat into Fed's pigeons
Much stronger than expected US jobs growth data on Friday night sent US bond yields sharply higher over the weekend. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at a slump in the Indonesia Rupiah ahead of its presidential election next week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, February 01, 2024
Friday: US yields drop despite Fed's caution
Global bond and stock markets are rallying this morning, despite attempts yesterday by Fed chair Jerome Powell to downplay chances of a rate cut in March. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim details a key reason for India’s economic outperformance — Government investment at 20 year highs in its budget overnight . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, January 31, 2024
Thursday: Australian inflation below forecasts
Global bond yields fell this morning ahead of the Fed’s keenly awaited interest rate decision due as we publish at 6am Sydney/Melbourne time. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities strategist Daniel Hynes takes a closer look at momentous decision to pause building LNG export terminals in the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, January 30, 2024
Wednesday: All eyes on Fed for rate cut signs
Global markets are on tenterhooks ahead of the Fed’s decision early tomorrow morning, although market expectations about rate cuts starting in March eased back a bit more. In our bonus deep-dive interview, we hear from ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim India’s pre-election Budget due on Thursday night. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, January 29, 2024
Tuesday: India sees 7% growth
India’s Finance Ministry says its economy could grow around 7% in coming years, with the country’s stock exchange rising 1.6% yesterday. In our bonus deep-dive interview, we hear from ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani about why regular exports from Asia are expected to be slower than electronics exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, January 28, 2024
Monday: Oil jumps to 8-week high
Oil prices rose sharply over the weekend after more drama in the Red Sea and on signs of strong demand for oil from the US economy. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview on the euro’s 25th anniversary, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin looks at whether it can ever supplant the US dollar as THE global reserve currency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, January 24, 2024
Thursday: China loosens lending rules
China loosened lending rules overnight by the most in two years, sparking a rally in stocks there. Flash PMIs reinforced hopes for soft landings and rate cuts. In our bonus deep-dive interview on the eve of tonight’s ECB decision, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin, reflects on the euro’s 25th anniversary. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, January 23, 2024
Wednesday: The economics of Australian tax cuts
China stock market has rebounded on a report of a US$278 billion plan to support stock values. In Australia, the Federal Government is reported to be about to shift the mix of ‘Stage 3’ tax cuts towards lower to middle income earners. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks at the deflationary implications of growing numbers of unemployed migrant workers in China’s cities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, January 22, 2024
Tuesday: Inside China's wage deflation
US stocks rose again overnight to set fresh record highs on bolstered hopes for a soft economic landing, while China’s stocks fell 2.4% to near a two-decade low as investors worry about deflation and capital outflows. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, takes a closer look at the growing numbers of unemployed migrant workers in China’s cities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, January 21, 2024
Monday: Why shops in CBDs are struggling
US stocks surged over the weekend to record highs, and markets are looking out this week for three crucial central bank decisions. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrill explains why big shopping centres with multiplex cinemas are doing much better than shops in and around CBDs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, January 18, 2024
Friday: ANZ sees RBNZ cutting from August
Global markets bedded in a 20 basis point rise in US 2 year Treasury yields overnight after more hawkish signals from the Fed, which kept the US dollar solid against the Aussie and Kiwi dollars. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why the RBNZ is now likely to cut first in August. That’s later than market expectations for a May cut, but earlier than her previous view of the first cut being in February next year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, January 17, 2024
Thursday: Global yields up as ECB pushes back
Global bonds and stocks sold off again this morning after the ECB pushed back against market views of an early rate cut and US retail sales were stronger than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur finds out what’s behind a surprisingly strong recovery in Asia’s jobs markets after covid . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, January 16, 2024
Wednesday: US bond yields rise on Waller view
Global bond markets sold off this morning after Fed official Christopher Waller cautioned against expectations of early and fast cuts in US interest rates. In our bonus deep-dive interview on Australia’s commercial property investment pipeline, ANZ New Zealand Economist Andre Castaing went deep into last year’s GDP figures and found the worst per-capita recession in 15 years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, January 15, 2024
Tuesday: China surprises by holding rate
The People’s Bank of China left a key interest rate on hold, surprising markets expecting a cut after more signs China’s economy is deflating. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why demand for new offices is much stronger than expected, even with more people working from home. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, January 14, 2024
Monday: Oil and shipping inflation surges
Oil prices surged through US$80/barrel over the weekend after US and UK air strikes against Houthi facilities in Yemen raised fears a wider war in the Middle East could choke off major shipping routes through the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why demand for new office construction is much stronger than expected, even with more people working from home. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, December 19, 2023
Wednesday: Our final edition for 2023
In our special last episode for 2023, I talked with ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga about the themes for 2023 and 2024 in global markets and economies. He explains why 2023 was the year of the soft landing, how China and Japan are book-ending the global rates cycle, and why fiscal policy will matter in 2024 edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2024. Have a safe and prosperous Christmas and New Year. We return on Monday, January 15. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, December 18, 2023
Tuesday: 5 Things to watch for in 2024
In our special 101st episode edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, December 17, 2023
Monday: 5 Things that defined 2023
In our special 100th episode edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2023. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, December 14, 2023
Friday: Bond yields slump after Fed pivots to rate cuts next year
Market interest rates are sharply lower this morning and stocks are rallying after the Fed pivoted to projecting interest rate cuts next year. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Vietnam is benefiting from friendshoring. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, December 13, 2023
Thursday: Bracket creep helps Australia's Budget
Global markets are in animated suspension this morning ahead of the Fed’s decision at 6am Sydney/Melbourne time. Australia’s budget is healthier after solid income tax and mining royalty growth. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Vietnam’s economy can keep growing, even after its demographic dividend has ended. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, December 12, 2023
Wednesday: Australia's diverging consumer and business confidence
US inflation data met forecasts overnight. Now the focus shifts to how hard the Fed will push back tomorrow morning at market expectations of early and large rate cuts next year. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen explains why Papua New Guinea’s economy is set to double inside the next five to eight years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, December 11, 2023
Tuesday: All eyes on the Fed and the BoJ
Markets are on tenterhooks ahead of US CPI data tonight and the FOMC decision on Thursday morning, although the yen is falling as expectations of a Bank of Japan next week evaporate. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why there’s such strong demand for Australia’s houses from rental property investors. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, December 10, 2023
Monday: Inside Australia's amazing housing market
America’s economy is still generating solid jobs growth while on track for a soft landing, but China’s has slowed so much it’s producing deflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, December 07, 2023
Friday: Bank of Japan hike talk jolts yen higher
Comments from Japanese officials suggesting a rate hike jolted the yen and Japanese bond yields sharply higher overnight. Global markets are now focused on Non Farm Payrolls data tonight for signs of a soft US landing. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why the Fed’s next rate cutting cycle will be so different. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, December 06, 2023
Thursday: Soft Australia GDP solidifies RBA hold
Soft Australian GDP figures have increased the chances that 4.35% will stay as the peak for the RBA’s cash rate. Oil prices slumped below US470/bbl overnight In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh examines the outlook for India’s rupee and the Singaporean dollar next year as the Fed starts cutting and the US dollar weakens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, December 05, 2023
Wednesday: RBA set for long hold in 2024
More US soft landing signs dragged US Treasury yields lower overnight, but the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are weaker after a credit rating warning for China and an RBA hold some in the markets saw as less hawkish than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why he sees Fed rate cuts in 2024 helping Asia’s currencies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, December 04, 2023
Tuesday: Inside gold's surge to record highs
The RBA is expected to hold at 4.35% in its last cash rate decision of the year this afternoon, albeit with a hawkish tone and after considering a hike. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why he’s raised his iron ore price forecasts to over US$100/tonne, despite weak demand for steel from China’s apartment developers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, December 03, 2023
Monday: Pressure in Australia's pipeline
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are opening at four-month highs against the US dollar and the gold price is at a record-high US$2,091/oz after US Treasury yields fell again on a growing conviction the Fed has engineered a soft US landing. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell details the pressures in Australia’s A$100 billion infrastructure investment pipeline. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, November 30, 2023
Friday: Inflation sagging in US & Europe to allow rate cuts in 2024
The Fed’s favourite measure of US inflation landed softly in October, leaving it on track to start cutting rates from the middle of next year. But inflation is weakening much faster in Europe, meaning rate cuts could start there from Easter. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin examines growing market confidence about a soft US economic landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, November 29, 2023
Thursday: Will the US really have a soft landing?
Australia’s inflation rate was much weaker than expected in October, but the RBA is expected to stay on a hawkish hold. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has also taken a hawkish stance, wrong-footing markets hoping for early rate cuts. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin examines growing market confidence about a soft US economic landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, November 28, 2023
Wednesday: A$, NZ$ surge as Fed hawk turns dovish
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars have surged overnight to four-month highs against a weakening US dollar, thanks to comments from a normally hawkish Fed official suggesting US rate cuts are more likely than hikes anytime soon. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Blair Chapman maps out the sweet spot for his new FTE-pop indicator of Australian labour market tightness. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, November 27, 2023
Tuesday: Just how tight is Australia's labour market?
China’s industrial profit growth has slowed sharply, increasing expectations for more stimulus. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Blair Chapman has come up with a better measure of how tight the labour market is: FTE-pop. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, November 26, 2023
Monday: Inside the new NZ Government's plans
New Zealand finally has a new centre-right coalition Government to replace the outgoing Labour administration. It plans tax cuts, spending cuts and a tweak to the Reserve Bank’s targets. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga maps out the week ahead in global markets and economics, including whether investors are too optimistic about a soft landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, November 23, 2023
Friday: Why the US investment pivot matters
New RBA Governor Michele Bullock is talking hawkishly about demand-driven inflation, which is set to keep Australian interest rates high, and possibly higher, for longer. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin details why massive US public investment spending is holding global interest rates up for longer. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, November 22, 2023
Thursday: Swifties to boost Singapore GDP
China’s renminbi has strengthened to a four-month high on hopes for calmer US vs China relations and lower US market interest rates. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains the importance of the US pivot to massive infrastructure spending. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, November 21, 2023
Wednesday: ACT the fastest-growing state
New stimulus moves for China’s property developers are bolstering the commodity currencies, including the Aussie and Kiwi dollars this morning. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia economist Maddy Dunk digs through Australian state GDP figures to find the winners and losers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, November 20, 2023
Tuesday: Central banks wary of defacto loosening
Central banks are now grappling with lower market interest rates that have undone some of the heavy lifting they were relying on previously higher rates to fight inflation. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh unpacks why there has been an improvement in exports from Asia ex China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, November 19, 2023
Monday: Australian project pipeline to almost double
Oil prices jumped 4% over the weekend on talk of fresh supply cuts. ANZ now sees the RBNZ holding the OCR in late February, vs a hike previously. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why Australia’s major projects pipeline is set to double to over $100 billion, and examines the pressures that will create. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, November 16, 2023
Friday: Oil prices slump on US demand worry
Oil prices fell sharply on signs of slowing US demand, while bond yields fell after weak US manufacturing data. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Asia Economist Krystal Tan dissects the effects of high US interest rates and diverging commodity prices on the balances of payments for South Asia and Southeast Asia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, November 15, 2023
Thursday: Yields reverse after firm US retail sales
Global markets were volatile again overnight. Slightly stronger than expected US retail sales unleashed a bounce in US Treasury yields, but US stocks and the ‘risk’ currencies, the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, held their gains. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Strategist in China ZhaoPeng Xing details the rise in the renminbi’s share of global currency and trade markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, November 14, 2023
Wednesday: Global stocks surge on soft US CPI
Global stocks surged 2% overnight after flat US inflation data bolstered hopes the US Federal Reserve can end its rate hike cycle. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur shows how changes inside India’s banking system are likely to lift India’s potential GDP growth rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, November 13, 2023
Tuesday: All eyes on US CPI for Fed clues
Markets are becalmed ahead of key US inflation data due tonight, which is expected to allow the Fed to hold its key policy rate again. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin dissects the inflationary pressures in the all-important US labour market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, November 12, 2023
Monday: RBA seen unlikely to cut until late 2024
The RBA issued a monetary policy statement with a hawkish tinge on Friday, meaning a hike is more likely than a cut any time soon, says ANZ economists. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Economics for Australia Adam Boyton explains why the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) is still falling, despite Covid’s supply shocks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, November 09, 2023
Friday: China in deflationary territory again
The People’s Bank of China is expected to ease a key bank lending rule in the coming months after China reported falling back into deflation last month. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Economics for Australia Adam Boyton explains what the NAIRU is and why it’s important for interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, November 08, 2023
Thursday: Oil price slumps to three-month low
Oil prices slumped again overnight to three month lows as concerns about weakening demand from slowing US, European and Chinese economies. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why Europe is headed for recession and the ECB may cut next year before the Fed. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, November 07, 2023
Wednesday: Aussie dollar down despite RBA hike
The RBA hiked as expected yesterday, but the Aussie dollar fell overnight. Some in the market saw the RBA’s comments about future hikes as dovish. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes, explains why central bank buying of gold has nearly doubled. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, November 06, 2023
Tuesday: RBA expected to hike one more time
The RBA is expected to hike one more time later today, which is helping the Aussie dollar nudge up towards 65 USc in early trade. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at why Indian equities are undervalued. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, November 05, 2023
Monday: Soft US jobs cement in Fed pause view
Weaker-than-expected US jobs growth data fueled an extension of rallies in global bonds and stocks. Risk currencies rose strongly. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks in the week ahead to the RBA’s rates decision and key China data. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, November 02, 2023
Friday: Treasuries rally strongly on soft landing hopes
US 10-year down to 4.62% overnight after Fed Chair Powell makes comments seen as suggesting extended rates pause; BoE holds too; South Korean inflation firm; Raymond Yeung's tribute to Li Keqiang. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, November 01, 2023
Thursday: S&P 500 up as Fed holds as expected
US stocks and bonds strengthened shortly after the US Federal Reserve held its key policy rate as expected and on hopes the US economy is slowing in line with Fed expectations. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s China Senior Strategist Zhaopeng Xing explains why this week’s National Financial Work Conference in China is much more important than it sounds. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, October 31, 2023
Wednesday: Yen at 15-year low of 151.5
The yen slumped to 151.55 overnight after a Bank of Japan tweak to monetary policy yesterday was seen as too timid and not allowing yields to rise quickly enough. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how strong US GDP growth is helping Asia’s economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, October 30, 2023
Tuesday: Yen rallies on YCC tweak talk
The yen is rallying in early Asian trade after a Nikkei report the Bank of Japan will consider allowing Japanese Government Bond yields to rise over 1.0%. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Asia’s economies are doing much better than the global headlines might suggest. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, October 29, 2023
Monday: Oil and gold up as Israeli troops enter Gaza
Israeli troops advanced into northern Gaza over the weekend, raising fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Gold and oil prices rose over key levels. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Andre Castaing explains how higher term premia for US interest rates are flowing into New Zealand’s economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, October 26, 2023
Friday: US GDP up 4.9% as ECB holds
US GDP grew 4.9% in the Q3, which beat expectations, but core inflation measures were subdued, encouraging bond investors to push yields lower. US stocks fell overnight after poorly-received results from Meta and UPS. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why US Government stimulus is getting more traction this time around. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, October 25, 2023
Thursday: ANZ now sees RBA hiking on Nov 7
Australian inflation was faster than expected in the September quarter, which has prompted ANZ’s economists to forecast a rate hike on Melbourne Cup day. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior International Economist Tom Kenny explains what the term premium is, how it’s changed and why it matters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, October 24, 2023
Wednesday: Oil slides after weak European data
Oil prices fell a further 2% overnight to well under US$90/bbl after European PMI surveys showed a deeper contraction in activity and the IEA forecast oil demand falling by 2030 for the first time. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why the ECB is likely to hold on Thursday night for the first time in 11 meetings. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, October 23, 2023
Tuesday: US bonds volatile ahead of PMIs
US Treasuries were volatile again overnight. The 10-year hit 5% and then slid in late New York trade, which dragged on the US dollar and boosted US stocks. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at which currencies are winning and losing in the hunt for safe havens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, October 22, 2023
Monday: Stocks down on high bond yields
Global stocks are starting the week down again thanks to high bond yields and plenty of nerves about geo-politics. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ NZ Economist Andre Castaing unpacks why New Zealand has a trade deficit of 3.5% of GDP. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, October 19, 2023
Friday: US 10-year nudges 5% as Powell speaks
The US 10-year Treasury bond yield nudged 5% this morning after Jerome Powell reaffirmed the Fed was finding higher bond yields useful in fighting inflation. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Asia Strategist Zhaopeng Xing points to the ‘lipstick effect’ that held back retail sales during China’s Golden Week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, October 18, 2023
Thursday: US 10-year hits 16-year high of 4.91%
US Treasury bonds sold off again overnight, pushing the 10-year yield to 4.91%, its highest level since 2007. Oil rose 2% on a drop in US inventories. Chinese GDP was stronger than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why Treasury yields are rising, even though the Fed appears to have paused rate hikes. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, October 17, 2023
Wednesday: Hot US retail sales drive yields up
The bond market selloff resumed in earnest overnight after better than expected US retail sales figures In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at how China might fix the debt problems at its Local Government Financing Vehicles ( LGFVs ). Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, October 16, 2023
Tuesday: US debt issue plans weigh on investors
Investor concerns about US Government plans for big issues of new Treasury bonds to fund ongoing deficits is driving up bond yields globally this morning. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung has identified a tipping point for the debt bound up in China’s key Local Government Financing Vehicles ( LGFVs ). Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, October 15, 2023
Monday: Oil & US$ stronger as Gaza invasion nears
Oil prices are up sharply this morning on signs Israeli troops will advance into Gaza within hours. A flight to safer assets is strengthening the US$ vs the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, while the yen is weak at 149.59/$. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Group’s Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga reviews the Fed’s recent comments, previews the week ahead and analyses changing investment flows in Asia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, October 12, 2023
Friday: US$ & yields up on warm super-core inflation
US Treasury yields surged again overnight after fresh signs of heat in US super-core inflation data. That pushed the US dollar up against the Aussie dollar, the Kiwi dollar and the euro. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh unravels a rise in portfolio outflows in Asia-ex China and looks ahead. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, October 11, 2023
Thursday: Oil prices slide on Saudi assurances
Oil prices fell after Saudi Arabia reassured markets it would use its oil supplies to stabilise prices. US Treasury yields fell further on benign inflation data and more Fed comments that rates can be paused. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Strategist David Croy looks at the weight of new Government bonds being issued to pay for deficits that are helping to force up yields globally, including in New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, October 10, 2023
Wednesday: Markets rally on Fed comments
Stocks and bonds rallied globally this morning after a Fed official said rates wouldn’t have to rise again. The A$ and NZ$ rose to multi-week highs vs the US$, helped by a report China is planning US$137b of new infrastructure spending. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Asia Economist Krystal Tan explains how high oil prices for longer will hit some Asian economies more than others. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, October 09, 2023
Tuesday: Oil up on fear of wider Mid-East conflict
Oil prices have bounced on fear the conflict in Gaza and Israel could spread to Iran. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are firmer this morning on softer market expectations for a Fed rate hike in either November or December. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner previews New Zealand’s election this Saturday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, October 08, 2023
Monday: Nonfarm payrolls double expectations
US jobs growth was much stronger than expected, but the resulting initial bond market selloff was eventually tepid as it became clear wage growth and unemployment weren’t quite so inflationary In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell details the RBA’s level of comfort with financial stability in its half-yearly review. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, October 05, 2023
Friday: Markets jittery ahead of key US jobs data
Markets are unsettled and wary of US non farm payrolls data tonight. Oil prices fell sharply again overnight. In our bonus deep-dive interview ahead of the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s next policy decision, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why it nudges the S$ about to control inflation, rather than interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, October 04, 2023
Thursday: Slow jobs data ends bond rout, for now
A fragile calm has returned to global markets after weaker-than-expected US jobs growth data halted this week’s rout in US Treasuries. Oil prices fell 5%. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview marking the 40th anniversary of the Hong Kong dollar’s peg, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at its digital future, and why a renminbi link is unlikely. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, October 03, 2023
Wednesday: Intervention fear as yen hits 150
US Treasury yields surged again overnight, boosting the US dollar vs the yen and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars. US stocks slumped 1.5-2%. The yen spiked after briefly going through 150, triggering unconfirmed talk of intervention. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains the importance of the Hong Kong dollar’s unbroken peg with the US dollar on the eve of its 40th anniversary. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, October 02, 2023
Tuesday: Inside the US bond market selloff
US bonds sold off aggressively overnight on the ‘higher-for-longer’ view after a Government shutdown was averted and US factory activity was above forecasts. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why the ‘higher-for-longer’ story is taking hold and how US fiscal and monetary policy is being projected around the world. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, October 01, 2023
Monday: US shutdown averted
A shutdown of US Government spending was averted at the last minute. US inflation data was benign ahead of key non-farm-payrolls data on Friday. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Pacific Economist Kishti Sen looks at how the Pacific’s $1.6 billion infrastructure deficit could be solved. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, September 28, 2023
Friday: Bond market selloff widens to Italy, UK
Bonds sold off sharply in Italy and Britain overnight on fears about deficit spending and more talk of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates needed to control inflation globally. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ NZ Economist Andre Castaing explains why New Zealand’s housing market is heating up again. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, September 27, 2023
Thursday: Brent crude up to nearly US$97/bbl
Oil prices surged again overnight to new 10-month highs of almost US$97/bbl after US oil inventories fell to their lowest levels in over a year. US bond yields rose again and US stocks fell more after strong US durable goods orders. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Food, Beverage and Agri-Insight Michael Whitehead explains why sheep prices in Australia are slumping under $10 per head. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, September 26, 2023
Wednesday: US stocks slide on higher-for-longer' rates views
US stocks are down this morning on concerns about higher interest rates for longer, and a slide in US consumer confidence In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh details a couple of new leading indicators for Asian GDP growth. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, September 25, 2023
Tuesday: Yen near 149 on surging US$
The US dollar is at new highs this morning, powered by another rise in US bond yields in the wake of the Fed’s decision to keep rates high for longer. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ India Economist Dhiraj Nim explains why India’s inclusion in a JP Morgan bond index is so important. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, September 24, 2023
Monday: Bond selloff end in sight
Bond yields start the week near 17-year highs after a sustained global selloff, but that may be ending, says ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga . In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Maddy Dunk picks out the strongest and weakest of the state economies, including a few surprises. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, September 21, 2023
Friday: Russia bans diesel exports; BoE holds
Russia banned diesel exports overnight. The Bank of England voted 5-4 to hold, hammering the pound to a six month low. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior International Economist Tom Kenny digs into the FOMC’s ‘hawkish hold’ this week and finds the Fed is more hopeful it can engineer about a ‘Goldilocks’ soft landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, September 20, 2023
Thursday: Fed rates higher for longer in 'dot plot'
The Fed held as expected, but the FOMC’s dot plot showed two fewer rate cuts in 2024 than the last dot plot. Market interest rates rose, the US$ strengthened and the yen fell through 148 again. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Food, Beverage and Agri Insights Michael Whitehead talks about how farmers have prepared for the El Nino declared this week, and what it means for beef and grain prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, September 19, 2023
Wednesday: Oil headed towards US$100/bbl
Oil prices bubbled up over US$95 a barrel overnight and seem destined to top US$100 as refineries bid against each other for crude to make hay from high diesel refining margins. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Group’s Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explains why AI may not become the deflationary force that some think. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, September 18, 2023
Tuesday: Oil nears US$95/barrel on supply cuts
Oil prices rose to almost US$95 a barrel overnight. Australia’s economy is showing early signs of perking up ahead of minutes today from the RBA. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the IEA’s prediction that oil demand will begin falling before 2030. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, September 17, 2023
Monday: China set for soft landing too
China’s economy performed better than expected in August after 28 stimulus measures in three months. ANZ has upgraded its China GDP forecasts. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Group’s Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explains Queensland’s economic superpowers, and its vulnerabilities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, September 14, 2023
Friday: Eurostoxx rallies on ECB's 'dovish' hike
The ECB hiked overnight, but it lowered its growth and inflation forecasts, and signalled it would stop there, so stocks and bonds rallied. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh reveals how the PBoC used most of its toolkit to defend the yuan/renminbi (CNH), but still has one very big bazooka left. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, September 13, 2023
Thursday: Net investment to Asia turns negative
US consumer price inflation in August was a tad higher and stickier than expected, but not enough to derail expectations the Fed will hold next week. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh unpacks a surprise net outflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from Asia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, September 12, 2023
Wednesday: Oil surges over US$92/bbl
Oil rose 2% to 10-month highs overnight after OPEC forecast continued strong demand. Diesel prices are surging even more, bringing back supply chain inflation headaches. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Food, Beverage and Agribusiness Insights Michael Whitehead details a massive shift in Australian farming from sheep and cattle to grain. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, September 11, 2023
Tuesday: BoJ pivot talk powers yen higher
The yen has surged in the last 24 hours on talk the Bank of Japan may pivot away from very low interest rates. The renminbi (CNH) jumped after the PBoC threatened intervention. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s NZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains what a PREFU is and why it matters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, September 10, 2023
Monday: China's stimuli becoming substantial
China reported a return to CPI inflation in August, but it wasn’t quite as big a bounce as forecast. The strong US$ is seen putting Asian currencies under pressure again this week. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explains why China’s many smaller structural reform measures are combining to turn into a more substantial set of stimuli. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, September 07, 2023
Friday: US economy powering ahead of EU, China
European GDP growth was much weaker than expected overnight, reinforcing the gap seen opening up between the US economy and the rest of the global economy and powering the US$ ever higher. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Asia Economist Krystal Tan details how Bank Indonesia is fighting to contain the pressures on the rupiah from that strong US$. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, September 06, 2023
Thursday: Yen, CNH near record lows vs US$
The yen and the renminbi are near record lows this morning vs the US dollar as the king of currencies is getting even more of a tailwind from higher bond yields. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Economist for China Betty Wang explains the shift toward a new public housing model in China that looks a lot like the one used for the last 60 years in Singapore. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, September 05, 2023
Wednesday: A$ slides to March 2020 lows
The Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened sharply overnight against ‘King US Dollar’, which was helped by stronger-than-expected US factory output data lifting bond yields. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur unpacks the rebound in consumer spending in the region after Covid. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, September 04, 2023
Tuesday: RBA set for hawkish hold
The RBA is set to hold the cash rate for a third consecutive month later today, but with a hawkish twist. The US$ remains strong against the yen and renminbi. The RBI is keeping a floor under the rupee. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga look’s at India’s burgeoning economic growth as it steps up to host G20 leaders this weekend. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, September 03, 2023
Monday: Iron ore, oil surge ahead of RBA decision
The RBA is set for a hawkish hold decision tomorrow as oil and iron prices hit multi-month highs. Non-farm payrolls suggest the US economy is cooling in a way that reassures the Fed. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes details why India’s booming EV production is electrifying demand for metals such as copper. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, August 31, 2023
Friday: US$ strong vs euro on inflation divergence
The US dollar is stronger against the euro this morning after solid US consumer spending and inflation data contrasted with and more moderate inflation signs from Europe. In part two of a bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains how China’s authorities are working to stop a slump in apartment prices that would threaten a ‘black swan’ event. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, August 30, 2023
Thursday: Big China cities help first home buyers
Guangzhou and Shenzhen have eased mortgage restrictions for first home buyers to boost apartment demand. Australia’s inflation was softer than forecast. In part one of a bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung examines the (remote) prospects of China’s property downturn becoming a ‘black swan event’ for China’s economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, August 29, 2023
Wednesday: US bond yields JOLTed lower
US bond yields are down sharply this morning and US stocks are up on hopes the Fed won’t have to hike next month. In part one of a bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers details why the RBA may accelerate its Quantitative Tightening (QT). Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, August 28, 2023
Tuesday: China stocks rally fizzles out
China’s authorities moved over the weekend to stimulate stock market activity, but an initial 5% surge has faded overnight. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers details why the RBA may accelerate its Quantitative Tightening (QT). Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, August 27, 2023
Monday: Fed talk boosts US$ over 146 yen
The US$ is strong above 146.4 yen after the Fed warned inflation was still too high and it may have to hike again. Traders are on high alert for BoJ intervention. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Group’s Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks beyond cyclical inflation to where structural inflation is stronger. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, August 24, 2023
Friday: Rates jitters return ahead of Jackson Hole
US stocks are down around 1% and US Treasury yields are up 3-5 basis points on concerns big central bank speeches tonight could be hawkish. US second tier data was stronger than flash PMIs indicated. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains the downturn in China’s property market and the wider macro-economic implications. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, August 23, 2023
Thursday: Global flash PMIs surprisingly weak
US stocks and bonds are rallying after the first indicators of global business activity in August were much weaker than expected, reinforcing market expectations central banks will be able to cut interest rates sooner and by more. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman about whether the BRICs have any realistic hope of breaking the global financial system’s reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, August 22, 2023
Wednesday: PBoC escalates currency support
The PBoC has bolstered support for the renminbi, fixing the rate well above market expectations and squeezing funding costs higher for short sellers. US existing home sales fell unexpectatedly. Europe’s current account deficit surged. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why the real neutral interest rate in the US is up around 1% to 0.5-1.0%. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, August 21, 2023
Tuesday: High US rates driving strong US$
The US dollar strengthened again overnight to over 146 yen, thanks to another surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.35% ahead of a key Fed speech on Friday. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why Vietnam’s economy is recovering after a slow start to 2023. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, August 20, 2023
Monday: All eyes on PBoC and Jackson Hole
China is expected to cut a key lending rate today and all eyes this week will be on Jerome Powell, who starts the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday night. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Australian Economist Adelaide Timbrell delves into why Australian house prices are rising again, despite the RBA’s rate hikes. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, August 17, 2023
Friday: US 10-year yield at 16-year high
The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 16-year highs overnight on growing talk the Fed will have to hike again. Risk-sensitive currencies are weak on China’s rapid slowdown. In an extended bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at why China’s stimulus isn’t working this time around. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, August 16, 2023
Thursday: US factories humming on IRA, CHIPS
US industrial production data was much stronger than expected overnight. The RBNZ held its cash rate, but hinted it may have to do a bit more inflation fighting. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at the contest that will play out between stronger real wages as inflation falls, and higher real interest rates, also on that falling inflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, August 15, 2023
Wednesday: US retail strong, just as China slides
US retail sales data was stronger than expected, ramping up the inflation pressure on the Fed. But China’s growth is slowing sharply, leading to a surprise rate cut. Oil prices slid on China’s weak data. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes details what an even harder slowdown of apartment building in China might do to commodity prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, August 14, 2023
Tuesday: Aussie, Kiwi dollars fall below key levels
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down near nine-month lows this morning, thanks to a strong US dollar and concerns about China’s slowing economy. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Asia Economist Krystal Tan details how El Nino is likely to affect food production and inflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, August 13, 2023
Monday: US PPI firm, but China loans slump 89%
US PPI inflation was a bit faster than expected in July, which pushed bond yields up on Friday night. But China’s economy continues to struggle, with loan growth slumping to a 14-year low. In our deep-dive-in-five interview, ANZ’s New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner looks at whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand can keep pausing its Official Cash Rate at 5.5% Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, August 10, 2023
Friday: Fed set to pause on tepid US inflation
US inflation was flat at 0.2% in July, which reinforced expectations the Fed will pause rate hikes next month. Strike threats on the Northwest Shelf are hitting global LNG markets. The RBI held rates with a hawkish twist. In our deep-dive-in-five interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explains why China can’t just flick the stimulus switch again to combat its growth slowdown. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, August 09, 2023
Thursday: Oil, food price headache for central banks
Oil prices rose again overnight to their highest levels since January on supply worries. Rice prices also surged to 15-year highs. Any return of food price inflation would be a headache for central banks. In our deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, explains why tomato prices are up 800% in parts of India, and why it’s worrying the RBI. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, August 08, 2023
Wednesday: China's trade stats weaker than forecast
China’s exports and imports fell more than expected in July, which drove stocks down in Asia overnight. US bond yields fell too after Moody’s downgraded 10 mid-sized US banks. Deflationary signs are expected from China later today. In our deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior International Economist Tom Kenny unravels what a ‘Goldilocks’ recovery for the US economy would mean for global interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, August 07, 2023
Tuesday: Deflation beckons in China
All eyes are on US and Chinese export and inflation data over the next three days. Deflation is a growing prospect in China on weak consumer spending and trade. In our deep dive interview, ANZ’s NZ’s Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby explains how that weak Chinese consumer demand has hammered prices lower for dairy farmers in New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sun, August 06, 2023
Monday: Something for everyone in US jobs
US jobs growth was a bit weaker than expected, but wage inflation was a touch firmer than forecast. This week’s key data is on Chinese inflation on Wednesday. In our deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior China Economist Betty Wang and ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes drill down into how commodities demand shifting from China to India will affect Australia’s exporters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Thu, August 03, 2023
Friday: US Treasuries sell off before jobs data
US Treasuries sold off overnight ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls. Investors are still worried about extra Government borrowing. The Bank of England hiked and the Bank of Japan intervened again. We look ahead to the RBA’s statement on monetary policy today. In our deep dive interview, we talk with ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumar about why consumers in China are stashing cash, rather than spending it, and what’s being done about it. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Wed, August 02, 2023
Thursday: Fitch downgrade hits global stocks and A$, NZ$
The Australian and New Zealand dollars slid through the bottom of their recent trading ranges 66-69c range overnight. Global stocks fell 1-2% after Fitch downgraded the United States’ sovereign rating. In our deep dive interview, we talk with ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung about why consumers in China are stashing cash, rather than spending it, and what’s being doing about it. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Tue, August 01, 2023
Wednesday: A$ down after surprise RBA pause
The Australian dollar fell more than a cent or 1.6% to 66 USc overnight after the RBA paused its cash rate for a second month in a row, surprising markets and most economists, but not ANZ’s. In our deep dive interview, we talk with ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga about why an Australian recession is now unlikely. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Mon, July 31, 2023
Tuesday: RBA set to pause as China slows
ANZ’s economists see the RBA pausing the cash rate again at 4.1% today. China’s services sector was slower than expected in July as consumers hoarded cash. The Bank of Japan finally tightened policy a bit without causing market ructions. Europe’s economy appears headed for a soft landing. In our deep dive interview, we talk with ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton about why the RBA can afford to hold and wait for more data, even though inflation is still 6%. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Bonus · Wed, July 26, 2023
5 in 5 with ANZ preview: the macro outlook
As we count down to the launch of 5 in 5 with ANZ next week, here’s taste of what you can expect. In this preview we hear from ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner and ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh about key themes shaping the global economy right now. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Trailer · Tue, July 25, 2023
Coming Tuesday - 5 in 5 with ANZ
Your daily market update with Bernard Hickey. Follow 5 in 5 with ANZ now so you get new episodes as soon as they land.
Trailer · Sun, July 16, 2023
5 in 5 with ANZ – trailer
Join Bernard Hickey for your daily market update. Follow now so you never miss an episode.
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