The Contrarian Investor Podcast on Steno.fm

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

The Contrarian Investor podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing narrative in financial markets. Each episode features an interview with a hedge fund manager, investor, economist or other market participant. The goal is to educate all listeners with an interest in asset allocation and ultimately to provide actionable ideas to the institutional investor community.

S7 E7 · Mon, March 31, 2025
Opportunities in High Yield, Private Credit and More: AJ Giannone, Allio Capital
AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle. This podcast was recorded on Monday, March 17, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers the very next day. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack . Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions. Content Highlights High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18); The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05); Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called ‘smart beta’ approach… (7:43); The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51); Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39); Background on the guest (22:52); Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01); There is still upside in European equities (33:54); What about the US market? (38:19) More Information on the Guest Website: AllioCapital.com
S7 E6 · Tue, March 18, 2025
Recession Fears Are Overblown: Robert Smallwood, The Contrarian Catalyst
Robert Smallbone, aka The Contrarian Capitalist, joins the podcast to discuss his view that recession fears are overblown and a fresh "blow-off top" is coming. This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 13, 2025 and made available to premium subscribers less than 24 hours later! More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack . Content Highlights Bearishness appears to have taken over markets. The S&P 500 just entered a correction. The guest is not buying that narrative (1:16); The uncertainty created by the new US president may be intentional to lower bond yields -- and interest rates (4:15); European and UK stock indexes should have more upside ahead (7:21); Background on the guest (12:46); The view on gold and silver (16:11); Crypto discussion (18:40). More From the Guest Substack X: @ContrarianRob88
S7 E5 · Tue, March 11, 2025
Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs: Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust
Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs. This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is avaliable here . Content Highlights The "Trump tariff barrage" will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation -- in the short term (1:51); Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24); Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23); Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won't be great for growth stocks like the 'magnificent 7'... (15:14); Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well... (18:03); The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23). More on the Guest Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com ; Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.
S7 E4 · Tue, March 04, 2025
Pessimism's Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors
Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump's various policies. This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the second on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is available here . This podcast deviates from the usual format by including the guest's first-hand account of the LA wildfires. This admittedly has only limited relation to investing, but was kept mostly intact for human interest reasons. Listeners can skip past these segments, identified below. Content Highlights Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05) The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02); The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25); Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32); Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51); Why you shouldn't buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18); The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52). For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com .
S7 E3 · Fri, February 21, 2025
AI Stocks Can't Lead the Market Much Longer. Invest Internationally Instead: Dan Rasmussen, Verdad Capital
Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Capital joins the podcast to discuss the dwindling prospects for AI stocks and why investors might want to look outside the US for better returns. This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Monday, Feb. 17, 2025 without ads or announcements. For more information about premium membership options, visit our Substack . Content Highlights AI stocks have been on an incredible run, massively growing profits without much capital spending. That equation has changed... (1:51); Tech companies are going from software businesses to manufacturing concerns -- capital- and energy-intensive businesses that simply can't produce the same growth as previous (6:03); DeepSeek claims to be able to reduce the cost of AI applications. How does that factor in to the equation? (9:09); So if the 'Mag 7' and AI stocks won't drive the market higher, then what will? Where will growth come from? (12:16); One place to start is to look for global diversification. Outside the US, stocks are meaningful cheaper... (15:24); The guest's book 'The Humble Investor' (21:37); What can supply 'edge' in investing? There are some things. Legal ones... (27:10); Background on the guest (33:02); The guest is a historian by trade. What historical period is perhaps most comparable to the present day? Unfortunately, it looks an awful lot like 'peak bubble'... (36:08); More Information on the Guest Website: VerdadCap.com ; Twitter/X: @VerdadCap .
S7 E2 · Thu, February 13, 2025
Prepare for End of US Dollar Cycle, as Emerging Markets Rise: Rohit Goel, Breakout Capital
Rohit Goel of Breakout Capital joins the podcast to discuss his view that the boom in the US dollar (and in US dollar-denominated assets) will soon give way, to be replaced by a long-awaited bullish cycle in emerging markets. Content Highlights Markets have grown accustomed to US dollar dominance and with it a surge in US assets, specifically stocks. That is due for a cyclical reversal (1:00); There are three factors supporting US growth. One of them is almost certainly due to run its course (4:43); The global economy revolves around the US consumer as driver of growth. But that too can change -- and other markets are better equipped to pick up the slack on their own (9:26); Despite all this, the US dollar should maintain its status as reserve currency. However, its dominance is waning (14:55); Background on the guest (23:28); Big tech stocks have worked very well for over a decade. But things are shifting to eat into their cashflows and there are reasons to believe too much optimism could be priced in... (26:07); The trend is for growth to originate elsewhere than US tech... (30:28); Discussion of frontier markets (35:33). The guest requests listeners connect through LinkedIn .
S7 E1 · Tue, January 28, 2025
The Looming Iceberg Ahead of the US Economy: Les Rubin, Main Street Economics
Les Rubin of Main Street Economics joins the podcast to discuss his chief concern facing not just markets and economies, but the world at large: US sovereign debt. This podcast episode was recorded on Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025 and released to premium subscribers the same day. Information on premium subscriptions, including the vast benefits, are available on our Substack . Content Highlights The US economy is headed to 'serious problems' and the guest's mission is to educate people to the gravity of the situation (1:47); Debt and fiscal deficits are nothing for the US. But its debt/GDP ratios is reaching a breaking point (2:57); How soon might the breaking point arrive? (5:30); Is there anything from the new Trump administration that might turn the tide? Elon Musk's DOGE program has promise... (11:02); What about tariffs? (16:22); Background on the guest (20:36); The need for more education: not just financial literacy, but economics (23:55). More Information on the Guest Website: MainStreetEconomics.org ; YouTube: MainStreetEconomics762 ; LinkedIn: Main-Street-Economics ; Twitter/X: @MainStreetEcon ; Instagram: @MainStreetEconomics ; Facebook: MainStreetEconomics .
S6 E22 · Fri, December 27, 2024
Natural Gas as the Energy of the Future: Applications and Investment Opportunities, With Farid Guindo
Farid Guindo of Drill Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on natural gas -- not the commodity itself, necessarily, but its application to meet future energy demand. Content Highlights Natural gas as the energy of the future even as prices of the commodity itself plummet (1:08); Oil exploration is becoming increasingly difficult, expensive, and risky (2:58); The 'John D. Rockefeller moment' for natural gas (5:46); What role can nuclear energy play? (16:03); In natural gas, there will be winners and losers, however... (18:00); Where are the best opportunities? (19:51); Background on the guest (28:39); How will the new presidential administration (Trump 2.0) impact things? (41:38).
S6 E21 · Thu, November 21, 2024
Opportunities in Closed-End Municipal Bond Funds: Jonathan Browne, RiverNorth Capital
Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager at RiverNorth Capital, joins the podcast to discuss investment opportunities in municipal bonds, specifically through the closed-end fund structure. This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers the day after recording and without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack . Content Highlights Quick primer on closed-end funds and their difference with mutual funds and ETFs (1:18); Municipal bonds and what to look for there (16:01); What kind of yield can investors expect from this asset class? (23:31); Background on the guest (26:50); Rising interest rates and inflation are certainly a risk for muni bonds, but the risk/reward is set up constructively... (30:59); Muni closed-end funds: a contrarian pick (37:28) For more on the guest, visit the website RiverNorth.com
S6 E20 · Fri, November 01, 2024
US Election 'Black Swans' Include Significant Chance of Political Violence
https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election. Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally. This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack . Content Highlights Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42); Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57); Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26); The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26); What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49); What about geopolitical risks? (20:42). For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com .
S6 E19 · Wed, October 30, 2024
Tariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 (Should It Happen)
Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets. This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack . Content Highlights The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11); What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45); How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40); The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22); However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40); Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38); Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44); Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50). More From the Guest Website: MarcToMarket.com ; X: @marcmakingsense .
S6 E18 · Wed, October 23, 2024
Trends Point to Trump Victory, Republican Sweep: Flip Pidot
Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress. This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available on our Substack page . Content Highlights What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38); About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55); Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58); Background on the guest (23:05); If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30); Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28) More From the Guest Website: AmCiv.com ; X: @FlipPidot ; Prediction/polling aggregator: TheSupermodel.com .
S6 E17 · Tue, October 01, 2024
The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More, With Tony Greer
Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more. This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack . There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised. Content Highlights Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31); China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57); There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59) The bullish case for uranium (10:37); Don't fade the AI story (14:20); The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04); Background on the guest (22:30); Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10); Election discussion (28:17). More Information on the Guest Website: TgMacro.com ; Twitter/X: @TgMacro ; Substack: @TgMacro .
S6 E16 · Wed, September 25, 2024
Finding Contrarian Investors Among US Presidents Past and Present
Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by subscribing to our premium offering . Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates. Content Highlights The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24); Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37); Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04); Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51); Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11); What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52); Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14); Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18) More Information on the Guest Website: AllThePresidentsMoney.com ; X: @Megan_E_Gorman .
S6 E15 · Tue, September 10, 2024
Fed's Next Move, Trump 2.0, Opportunities in AI, Argentina: James Fishback
James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed's shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues. This podcast was recorded on Sept. 4 and was being made available to premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available here . NB: The guest is outspoken on certain political beliefs discussed here. These views are not necessarily shared by the host or the Contrarian Investor Podcast more generally. Content Highlights The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure... (1:37); The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44); The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16); How to trade a Republican sweep? There's an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54); Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back... (15:31); AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44); Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin... (22:47); Background on the guest (28:33); Azoria's first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38); Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18) More Information on the Guest Website: AzoriaPartners.com ; Substack: HeadofMacro.com ; X: @j_fishback ; LinkedIn: Azoria-Partners
S6 E14 · Wed, August 21, 2024
Economic Data Pointing in Right Direction, for Now: Colin White, Verecan Capital
Colin White of Verecan Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy and why he considers the likelihood of a 'soft landing' to have increased... This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024 and made available for premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is avalailable on our Substack page .. Content Highlights Economic indicators are pointing to increased chances of a 'soft landing'... (1:10); The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) have 'bullets in their gun' in the form of interest rate cuts, should the need arise. Another reason for confidence (3:27); Employment numbers are the most important datapoint to watch right now (6:41); The Age of Finfluencers and dangers it has wrought (14:32); Central banks have a responsibility to act in the best interests of the general public. If they stray from that responsibility, the structure that governs central banks can change (19:29); Background on the guest (23:31); No, real estate is not always a good investment (34:11); AI discussion (37:41). More on the Guest: Website: Verecan.com ; Podcast: Barenaked Money ; LinkedIn .
S6 E13 · Tue, August 06, 2024
Bonds Poised for More Upside. Tech Stocks Too: Chad Olivier
Chad Olivier of Baton Rouge, La.-based The Olivier Group joins the podcast to discuss his view of markets and why he is bullish about bonds and technology stocks. This podcast episode was recorded July 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium subscriptions is available here . Content Highlights The view of the bond market has changed with the Fed (1:18) The Olivier Group started adding bond exposure through ETFs in the first quarter and expects to add to it... (3:18); The 10-year yield should drop to the 3% range "by this time next year" (4:43); Small caps have recovered lately but the guest is less bullish there (9:31); Technology stocks are much better positioned than in previous cycles (10:56); Municipal bonds may also present an opportunity... (15:41); Background on the guest (20:05); Oil markets could present another opportunity, especially large cap, dividend-paying companies (23:58); The political outlook and its impact on markets (25:51). For more information on the guest visit the website OlivierGroup.com .
S6 E12 · Thu, July 25, 2024
Gold Prices Set to Move (Even) Higher: Dana Samuelson
Dana Samuelson, president of the American Gold Exchange, joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss why gold prices are set up to rally further -- even after a 20% rise so far this year. This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, July 19. 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following business day. For information on becoming a premium subscriber -- and the host of other benefits it involves -- visit our Substack . Content Highlights Gold is trading right near all-time highs. Can there really be more room for upside? (1:48); One thing missing from the equation for still higher gold prices is interest rate cuts... (3:36); Another thing missing is fear in the market (5:07); Gold has rallied 20% so far this year. A Fed rate cut will supply another 10%. $3000/oz. gold is in sight... (8:36); What of the argument that there's no tangible use for gold? (11:20); Why gold coins are preferable to bars (14:30); Background on the guest (19:39); Quarters and dimes vintage 1964 are 90% silver (26:40); View on digital currencies and Bitcoin. There is a place for it... (33:20); How much of one's portfolio should be earmarked for gold and precious metals? (37:15) More Information on the Guest Twitter/X: @DanaSamuelson99 ; LinkedIn: @American-Gold-Exchange-Inc ; Website: AmerGold.com ; YouTube: AmericanGoldExchangeAustin .
S6 E11 · Tue, July 02, 2024
The 'Stoic Investment' Primer, With Darius Foroux
Darius Foroux, author of the upcoming book 'The Stoic Path to Wealth,' joined the podcast to discuss his, well, stoic approach to investing. This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, June 25, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack . Content Highlights How interest in philosophy rekindled his interest in investing after the great financial crisis (1:32); A brief introduction to stoicism, a 2,300 year-old philosophy that is distinct from cynicism (4:08); How to apply this to investing (6:14); Isn't investing in indexes just the best way to go? (12:38); The '90/10' portfolio allocation: 90% in the S&P 500, 10% in individual stocks (17:24); The Dutch Stripe, trades in Amsterdam and on Pink Sheets (18:06); Background on the guest (28:54); The guest's second individual stock holding. Listeners will have heard about this one (33:01); How does a stoic combat FOMO (41:41). More Information on the Guest Website: DariusForoux.com ; Twitter: @DariusForoux ; Instagram: @DariusForoux ; YouTube: @DariusForoux . Not investment advice.
S6 E10 · Fri, June 14, 2024
US Economy Too Strong for Fed, Where to Invest Now: Leo Schmidt, River Eddy Capital
Leo Schmidt, founder of family office River Eddy Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on economy, markets, and where to invest capital in what may be a 'stagflation lite' environment. This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, June 7, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following Monday. Visit the Substack or Supercast for more information about premium subscriptions. Content Highlights "Labor markets are way too hot." There will be "no landing" (1:48); Non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than anticipated. What this says about the labor market (4:59); 'Stagflation lite' (8:31); Our views of credit creation are outdated. The shadow banking system has replaced commercial banks as the primary source of credit. What this means (11:59); The Federal Reserve probably needs to cut rates. Could they? Probably not -- this year (22:21); What does an investor do now? First up: Stocks that are AI/Nvidia (NVDA) plays. Celestica (CLS), Flex (FLEX), Sanmina (SANM), Jabil (JBL) (27:51); Pharma spin-outs: Haleon (HLN), Kenvue (KVUE), Organon (OGN), Viatris (VTRS) (31:54); Dollar stores, especially Dollar Tree (DLTR), are poised to outperform once there is an economic slowdown (39:07); The bullish case for pipeline companies (46:59).
S6 E9 · Tue, June 04, 2024
Stock Market Expectations Getting Ahead of Economic Realities: Bob Elliott, Unlimited
Bob Elliott of Unlimited rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism that may not be based on economic realities... This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 28, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack . Content Highlights Stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism. Just how unrealistic is that? (1:19); What is there to indicate the economy could slow this year or even next? (4:34); A recession may be years away rather than months under current conditions. But conditions, as we know, can change quickly... (8:58); There is a precedence to interest rates going up dramatically without it causing an immediate and dramatic entrenchment in economic growth (11:52); Tech stocks might be overvalued but comparisons to the dot-com bubble are unfair and inaccurate -- and may preclude a spectacular bust (16:10); Today's economic expansion is income-driven. Not a result of credit expansion (18:13); What kinds of indicators should investors study to spot a slowdown in this particular type of economic activity? (30:45); Regional banks are for the most part fairly priced at present... (35:50). More Information on the Guest Website: UnlimitedFunds.com ; Twitter: @BoBEUnlimited ; YouTube: @BobEUnlimited.
S6 E8 · Mon, May 13, 2024
The Specter of Stagflation Still Looms: Ayesha Tariq
Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 7 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber . Content Highlights: The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56); The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31); Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there's no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn't be the first time) (8:50); Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03); China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit... (15:58); India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11); The guest's favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07); A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00). For more about the guest, visit her firm's website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X .
S6 E7 · Wed, April 24, 2024
Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order: Doug Greenig, Florin Court Capital
This episode was recorded April 15, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or interruptions. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack page . Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview -- one where the US is no longer the sole superpower -- the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities. And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy. Content Highlights The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09); China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It's just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07); The guest's trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52); One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19); Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15); Background on the guest (41:04); Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40); As Russia's economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis... (53:03); US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has "something like five years" before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45); Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45). More Information on the Guest LinkedIn ; Website: FlorinCourt.com .
S6 E6 · Fri, April 05, 2024
The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It's Positive: Enrique Abeyta, HX Research
This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 29, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the next trading day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit our substack . Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick -- and it's not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length. Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised. The guest's microphone setup is significantly better than the host's so don't get discouraged by the host sounding like he's hiding in a cave at the open. Content Highlights Trends are underrated. Many investors don't respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21); However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back -- as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24); On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30); When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same... (15:36); Contrarian take: there's no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00); Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54); Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20); One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51). More on the Guest Website: HXResearch.net ; Twitter/X: @EnriqueAbeyta.
S6 E5 · Wed, March 27, 2024
Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History: Daniel Peris
This podcast was released for premium subscribers on March 20, 2024. For more information on premium subscriptions please visit our Substack . Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows. Note: The host's mic was a little 'stuffy' for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear! Content Highlights Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55); No, this isn't about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22); Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder... (18:30) Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37); Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33); What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40). More on the Guest Website: StrategicDividendInvestor.com ; Twitter: @HistoryInvestor ; Order the book .
S6 E4 · Wed, March 13, 2024
Lessons From Financial History: Mark Higgins
This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 1, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers on March 6. For more information on premium memberships visit our Substack . Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History , joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today's market environment. Content Highlights What period from the past compares closest to the one we're living through now? It's a combination of several... (1:56); The last time the US -- and Federal Reserve -- battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today's age... (4:36); The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04); Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51); Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost -- and risks (15:40); Decentralized currencies aren't new and in fact once characterized the US dollar -- and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn't end well... (18:06); Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05); Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator... (27:17); The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36); The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25). More From the Guest Website: EnlightenedInvestor.com ; Order the book on Amazon.com ; LinkedIn: @MarkHiggins .
S6 E3 · Wed, February 21, 2024
Time to Get Defensive, Avoid 'Magnificent 7' Tech Stocks: Ted Oakley, Oxbow Advisors
This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast . Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one's portfolio. Content Highlights The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47); "There are things that people don't see" (or at least don't publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08); One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59); Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head... (6:05); Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22); Oxbow has been invested in 'Magnificent 7' stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently... (10:48); Background on the guest (23:07); What previous period in investment history is today's market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer... (29:32). More from the guest Website: OxbowAdvisors.com ; Twitter: @Oxbow_Advisors ; YouTube ; LinkedIn: Oxbow_Advisors .
S6 E2 · Thu, February 01, 2024
US Economic Outlook 'Surprisingly Optimistic': Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust Co.
Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his "surprisingly optimistic" outlook for the US economy in 2024. This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages. Content Highlights The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30); The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39); Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps... (6:35); The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren't rate cuts right away (10:05); How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US... (17:01); Commercial real estate is 'the canary in the coal mine' but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008... (24:36); The guest's take on the impact of this year's US presidential election (28:15); Top concerns start with deficit spending... (33:23); An economist's take on the AI revolution (39:28). More on the Guest Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com ; Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.
S6 E1 · Thu, January 11, 2024
Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024: Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics
This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast . Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024. Content Highlights Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29); Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00); The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57); How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36); Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58); The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06); Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35); Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40); How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31) More About the Guest Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com ; Twitter: @BarryKnapp.
S5 E29 · Wed, December 27, 2023
Risks Point to Downside in 2024: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin
This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively -- without ads or announcements -- for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages. Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won't be a 'soft landing' for the economy next year. Content Highlights Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12); Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39); The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26); The contrarian call is that they're won't be a soft landing -- or a stock market crash (11:44); Possible explanation for the 'Fed pivot' (16:48); How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56); Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02). More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin: Website: Centerfin.co ; Twitter: @WallStHobbes ; LinkedIn page ; Facebook: CenterfinHQ ; Instagram: @CenterfinHQ . This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.
S5 E28 · Tue, December 05, 2023
Short-Term Treasuries the Place to Be: Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap
This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast . Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society. Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language. Content Highlights The 'soft landing' scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn't quite buy that (1:37); To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26); Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US... (9:37); Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more...(15:48) More on the Guest Website: DailyDirtNap.com ; Twitter: @DailyDirtNap ; Facebook: JaredDillianAuthor ; Pre-order his book on Amazon . Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!
S5 E27 · Tue, November 21, 2023
Opportunities in Emerging, Frontier Markets: Kevin T. Carter, EMQQ Global
This podcast episode was recorded on Nov. 15, 2023 and released to premium subscribers the following day --without ads. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast . Kevin T. Carter, founder and chief investment officer of EMQQ Global, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging and frontier market stocks. His first lesson: don't bother with the indexes. The real opportunities are to be found in individual stocks. Content Highlights The first issue with emerging market investing is the index. These do not accurately reflect the real opportunities (1:19); Individual stocks, especially of technology companies, have performed far better than the underlying index (6:25); There are three mega-trends that point to emerging markets growth over the long term (8:03); South America's E-commerce giant is not in any EM index. Neither is Brazilian digital bank Nu Holdings (15:14); A broad discussion of China, where things are not always as they appear in the western media... (19:22); Right now all eyes are on India. The story there is still in the early innings, but unfortunately options are limited for investors limited to US exchanges... (42:13); Other markets in South Asia also offer compelling opportunities. Especially Bangladesh (48:58). More Information on the Guest LinkedIn: TheKevinTCarter ; Website: EMQQGlobal.com .
S5 E26 · Tue, October 31, 2023
Opportunities in Credit Markets with Tom Carney, Weitz Investments
This episode was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 26 without ads or announcements. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack or Supercast . Tom Carney, co-head of fixed-income at Weitz Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his (perhaps surprisingly) optimistic view of bond and credit markets. Content Highlights Carney's views on the bond market. Interest rates have created a much-improved, encouraging environment for investors (1:33); Opportunities include the non-corporate bond market, specifically the asset-backed securities market (5:38); The guest has a unique view into consumer lending. There are defaults, but not more than usual (10:37); Discussion of the mortgage-backed securities market. There too, defaults are not particularly prevalent (13:05); How big of a concern is the Fed? (24:25); Background on the guest (29:57); What about his concerns facing markets at present? (38:09). For more information on the guest, visit the website WeitzInvestments.com .
S5 E25 · Mon, October 16, 2023
Stocks, Bonds to Rally in Q4: David Hunter
A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 -- the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast . David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds. Not investment advice. Content Highlights Views on the bond market (1:31); The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41); Views on stocks (11:30); Once consensus emerges that the Fed is 'done' it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating... (16:14); Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields... (21:21); How the 'bust' scenario will play out (27:02), To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian . The host will not forward your messages.
S5 E24 · Wed, September 20, 2023
Contrarian Investing Primer With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors
This episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on Sept. 18. Find out about premium subscriptions here . Phil Pecsok, founder of Anacapa Advisors, joins the podcast to supply a primer on contrarian investing: What it is, what catalysts to look for, and some valuable lessons from his 30-year career on Wall Street. Content Highlights The guest provides his views of contrarian investing and how he uses it (1:27); Examples of blaring contrarian signals from past cycles (9:00); The Fed is likely to stay hawkish (13:14); The 'Rule of 3' in contrarian investing as illustrated in a story from early in the guest's career (16:37); His views on cryptos (24:13); Background on the guest (30:01); Sports betting is an efficient way to lose money, unless you're running the book. But sometimes there are sometimes contrarian opportunities (37:46); What keeps the guest up at night? Nothing in particular, though stocks are probably overbought even after the recent sell-off (45:17). For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com .
S5 E23 · Mon, September 04, 2023
Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets: Ayesha Tariq
This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a 'highlight' clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode -- without ads or interruptions -- the following day, on Aug. 30. To find out more about premium subscriptions, visit our Substack . Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets. Content Highlights The 'soft landing' scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that's wrong (1:32); Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44); The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53); The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58); The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48); Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45); New segment: Listener questions. Whoever's questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36); Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42); One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35). For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X . Not investment advice.
S5 E22 · Wed, August 30, 2023
Diamonds as an Asset Class: Concepts, Contrarian, Catalysts, With Cormac Kinney
This podcast was released to premium subscribers on Aug. 24. Become a premium subscriber on Substack or Supercast . Cormac Kinney, founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, joins the podcast to discuss the concept of diamonds as an asset class: why they haven't become an investable commodity like other precious metals, how that may be changing, and what investors can expect in terms of correlation to other assets and alpha. Content Highlights Why haven't diamonds become an investable asset class like precious metals or other commodities? (1:11); Some of the economics behind diamond production and why supply is dropping dramatically (4:45); How Diamond Standard is turning diamonds into a fungible commodity (this is where the bars in the cover photo comes in) (7:55); What are diamonds used for practically, other than jewelry? (11:06); Diamonds' correlation to other asset classes over time (15:33); Diamond futures are coming. That will introduce much-needed liquidity (21:45); Background on the guest (29:30); More About the Guest Website: DiamondStandard.co ; Twitter: @DiamondStandard and @CormacKinney ; LinkedIn: DiamondStandard ; Instagram: @DiamondStandard.co ; FaceBook: DiamondStandardCo .
S5 E21 · Wed, August 23, 2023
Some Disparate 'Best Ideas' for the Rest of 2023: Brooker Belcourt
This episode was recorded on Aug. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber here . Brooker Belcourt, founder of Covey.io, rejoins the podcast to discuss the three-pronged consensus that the investment platform's best analysts are picking up right now and the 20 names that have emerged... (Not investment advice). Content Highlights What are the best Covey analysts picking up right now? (1:37) The platform's 20 best positions are split into four buckets: growth winners like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), healthcare (three names including biopharma), 'high-quality' names like Autozone (AZO) and Disney (DIS), and volatility expressed through the levered ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) (4:55); What to make of the long volatility bet? (9:40); Equally interesting is the type of exposure that is absent from the best 20: no crypto, no retail stocks, nothing international... (16:04); More About the Guest Website: Covey.io ; Twitter: @CoveyInvest ; LinkedIn: CoveyInvest .
S5 E20 · Thu, August 10, 2023
The Economy's Soft-Landing Will Be Short-Lived: Peter Kraus, Aperture Investors
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast . Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the 'soft landing' to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns. Content Highlights An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38); The Fed is unlikely to 'break more stuff' as this spring's banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12); Inflation will be more persistent and 'sticky' than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn't leave bonds in a very good position (7:20); When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17); The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33); Background on the guest (26:06); China's driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42). More on the Aperture Investors Website: ApertureInvestors.com ; Twitter: @ApertureInvstrs ; LinkedIn: Aperture-Investors ; Instagram: @ApertureInvestors .
S5 E19 · Thu, July 27, 2023
Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching 'Invulnerable Extremes': Peter Atwater
This podcast episode was made availableto premium subscribers on July 25 without ads or announcements. There are many other benefits to being a premium subscriber. Sign up through Supercast or our Substack . Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity." Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' that indicates a top in markets... Content Highlights Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48) Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52); Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08); How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17); When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16); Background on the guest (24:10); Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37); Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing 'sentiment diversification' (30:08); Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19). More on the Guest Website: PeterAtwater.com ; Twitter: @Peter_Atwater ; Ways to order the book here . Not investment advice.
S5 E18 · Thu, July 20, 2023
Contrarian Wealth-Generation, With Stephanie Walter
Premium subcribers received this (and every) episode early and without ads . Stephanie Walter of Erbe Wealth joins the podcast to discuss some of the trade secrets of ultra-wealthy investors. Listeners may be shocked to hear about their very small allocation to public equities... Content Highlights A unique way to generate tax-free income through so-called premium financing insurance (1:51); The security works as a life insurance policy with a premium paid by a bank (5:45); These securities are illiquid, with a lock-up of 10 to 15 years, but the coupon pays double-digit percent -- tax free (7:34); Cap rates are starting to rise, creating opportunities in commercial real estate. One example is retail in Wyoming (14:23); Office space is a different animal however. Too much risk, not enough reward (18:50); Background on the guest (22:27); Some of the ways ultra-wealthy allocate funds (very little to public equities), and the mindsets behind them (26:06); What about cryptos? (33:48); There are reasons to be concerned about the economy. Taxes could be a wild card here. Also interest rates (34:48). More Information on the Guest Website: ErbeWealth.com ; LinkedIn: Erbe-Wealth .
S5 E17 · Thu, July 13, 2023
Trend-Following Strategy Primer and Current Opportunities, With Anthony Todd, Aspect Capital
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits for the premium service, which are spelled out on our Substack . Anthony Todd, the founder of Aspect Capital, joins the podcast to discuss the trend-following investment strategy he helped pioneer almost 50 years ago including where it might be particularly applicable in today’s markets. Content Highlights What is trend-following? Quick primer (1:06); What makes a trend? (5:23); What markets does Aspect Capital trade? (7:52); Current opportunities (9:11): Fixed-income (10:09); Agricultural commodities (10:58); Price action is paramount in the trend-following model, and it can lead to closing or reversing certain trades. For example, a bond rally... (14:15); Wait, so is trend-following anti-contrarian? (16:11); Background on the guest (21:24); His thoughts on artificial intelligence, or AI... (28:20); ...and on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies (31:55). For More Information: Website: AspectCapital.com ; LinkedIn: Aspect-Capital . Not investment advice.
S5 E16 · Tue, June 20, 2023
Regional Bank Credit Risk, AI Tech Hype, Trouble in Commercial Real Estate: Chris Bemis, X-Cubed Capital
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on June 15 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits to premium subscriptions, which are spelled out on our Substack . Chris Bemis, co-founder of X-Cubed Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his views on regional bank credit risk, the nascent bubble in AI tech stocks (and AI more generally), problems in commercial real estate, and how he applies his mathematics background to investing. Content Highlights Last September, X-Cubed's credit risk signals flashed red over regional banks, causing the firm to put on some trades to profit. That opportunity has now run its course and the other side may hold more interest... (1:21); AI tech stocks: It's not 1999 but more like 1995 with the beginning of the seeds of a bubble. The firm is more bullish on mid-cap stocks in general (12:11); Background on the guest (15:40); The differences between a multi-manager approach to investing and multi-strategy and why the latter has advantages right now (19:46); The bearish argument on office space and why he's bullish homeowners (26:20); Making use of mobile phone data and other 'alternative' data sources (30:00); AI, artificial intelligence, and why it falls short in many investment approaches (33:18); Some advice for math students from a mathematics academic (38:37). More Information on the Guest Website: x3cmllc.com
S5 E15 · Wed, June 07, 2023
Inflation Will Persist Above the Fed's Comfort Level: Naomi Fink
This episode was made available to premium subscribers on June 1 without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack . Naomi Fink, founder and CEO at Europacifica Consulting in Los Angeles, joins the podcast to discuss her view that inflation will prove more elevated and persistent than market participants are anticipating -- and how and where this impact will be felt. Content Highlights Inflation caught investors by surprise and investors could be forgiven for thinking inflation will drop again. But inflation will more likely normalize around a higher rate (3:15); There are multiple reasons for this: reversal of globalization, limits to technological advancements, supply shocks, geopolitical unrest, and labor supply shortages, to name a few (4:09); Where does this leave Fed policy? (6:03); Retailers have been reporting a consumer pullback on big ticket purchases: business cycle or inflation? (13:52); Companies will need to innovate to deal with more persistent inflation and a skills shortage. Those that don't will be left behind (16:34); AI is not a cure-all and may in fact be mostly hype (18:23); Background on the guest (24:53); Japan and Japan stocks (28:36); Social security cost of living adjustments are not keeping up with inflation. The impact (33:59); What options do retirees have to maintain their purchasing power on fixed income? (38:17); Financial literacy is vital but may be a double-edged sword... (46:28). More From The Guest Website: Europacifica.com.
S5 E14 · Wed, May 31, 2023
AI is Overhyped, Will Only Worsen Inequality: Simon Johnson
This episode was made available to premium subscribers on May 24, without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack . MIT Economist Simon Johnson joins the podcast to discuss his book, 'Power and Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity' and specifically why artificial intelligence is likely overhyped, and that not just from an investment perspective. Content Highlights Artificial intelligence's default trajectory is about machine intelligence, code for replacing people with machines. Historically, this has not brought great things (1:21); Indeed technological progress has not always benefited everybody, but just a small group at the top. Today's advancements are no different (5:11); Don't expect a boost to business either. Productivity gains should be limited (9:17); Some of the dangers of Chat GPT and Google's Bard that is driving most business development around AI (20:12); Background on the guest (24:26); Thoughts on the current market environment and its potential to spill over into crisis (27:43). For More Information Get the book on Amazon: Power and Progress ; Simon Johnson's Wikipedia page ; Twitter: @BaselineScene .
S5 E13 · Thu, May 18, 2023
Value Stock Geek on Google, Meta, Taiwan Semiconductor
This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 16 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack . Value Stock Geek rejoins the podcast to discuss recent portfolio acquisitions Google (GOOG), Meta (META), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), what's on his watch list, and where and when he could be looking to buy. Content Highlights The case for Google stock (1:54); Artificial intelligence and how that is impacting Google's business (6:40); Meta and the Metaverse: investing in the legacy business plus Instagram (7:38); Taiwan Semiconductor: cyclical, yes, but a good bet for the long term (12:39); 'The Weird Portfolio' and how that works (16:07); The watchlist and two notable stocks worth watching right now: NVR (NVR) and Deere (DE) (20:39). Home Depot (HD), another watchlist stock, just reported earnings and lowered guidance due in part to consumers pulling back on big-ticket purchases (29:00). More Information on the Guest Substack: SecurityAnalysis.org ; Twitter: @ValueStockGeek ; The Weird Portfolio is discussed in some detail on a previous podcast appearance .
S5 E12 · Thu, May 11, 2023
Mild Recession Brings Opportunities in Tech Stocks, Corporate Bonds: Elliot Kallen
This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 9 and a short highlights reel was made available to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode followed a day later. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack . Elliot Kallen, founder of Prosperity Financial Group, joins the podcast to discuss his expectations for a coming recession, to start this summer, and why some of the best opportunities may be in technology stocks and corporate bonds. Content Highlights Tech stocks: the pullback is coming (3:31); The market is starting to flatline. Look to midcap value stocks (6:04); The Fed will likely raise rates one more time and then reverse. Time to buy bonds -- corporates (8:47); Consumers have already started to pull back, judging by some primary evidence the guest gathers... (12:02); Why the recession will be mild, despite the red flags (17:38); Background on the guest (24:00); Active management has its place (30:24); Thoughts on the next generation growth industries (36:53). Not investment advice. Do your own research. Make your own decisions. More Information on the Guest Website: ProsperityFinancialGroup.com ; Facebook ; YouTube .
S5 E11 · Thu, May 04, 2023
Author of 'SBF' on his Book's Subject, What Undid FTX, Future of Cryptos
This podcast episode was recorded on Monday, May 1, and released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast . Brady Dale joins the podcast to discuss his book, 'SBF: How the FTX bankruptcy unwound crypto's very bad good guy' and offer his thoughts on the present and future of cryptocurrencies. Content Highlights Who is Sam Bankman-Fried exactly? Is he a crook? (Yeah, probably) Misunderstood? The author has known SBF for awhile and states that his subject was initially motivated by effective altruism, or EA ... (1:27); FTX was undone by its special treatment of Alameda. If it wasn't for that, "Sam would still be on the news all the time" today (10:54); Bankman-Fried's apparent misreading of crypto cycles led to ill-timed bets after Bitcoin hit an all-time high in November 2021 (14:26); In one of SBF's last conversations with the author, SBF claims he is unlikely to get a fair trial due to being proverbially hung already in the courts of opinion (17:59); Where does SBF rank among other financial market fraudsters? Perhaps Long Term Capital Management is the closest comparison... (23:52); Background on the guest, including what got him to write the book on SBF (34:03); Cryptos should eventually become a normal part of the economy. In many ways the story of SBF vindicates this (38:26); The world only really needs three blockchains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin (44:28); Crypto regulation was supposed to have happened already, but it all seems to be talk (49:58). More From Brady Dale Purchase the book from Wiley or Amazon ; Twitter: @BradyDale ; Subscribe to his Axios newsletter .
S5 E10 · Tue, April 25, 2023
3 Stock Picks, the Case for Investing in Malaysia: Aaron Pek
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. To track a partial portfolio of Value Investing Substack, click here . Aaron Pek of Value Investing Substack joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook on three individual stocks and more generally the investment case for Malaysia. Content Highlights First idea: Intel (INTC) and why it can compete with Samsung (SSNLF) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) (2:33); Some additional background on Intel and its business case (4:49); Bears say INTC has years until it can catch up to TSMC, but Intel has the necessary machinery to bridge the gap sooner (10:10); Second idea: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), a unique oil play beloved by Warren Buffett (15:23); Background on the guest (23:57); Third idea: Hibiscus Petroleum (HIPEF), whose management team the guest views as the Warren Buffett management team of southeast Asian oil and gas (28:13); The case for Malaysia: a view from the ground (32:29); There is an ETF, iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) which tracks Malaysian stocks. Discussion of Malaysia's geopolitical place between China and the US (34:39); China's lost decade (44:11). Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions. More on the Guest Substack: ValueInvesting.Substack.com ; Twitter: @ValueInvestingZ ;.
S5 E9 · Tue, April 11, 2023
Risk/Reward Still Skewed Toward Risk: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research
This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day's non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast . Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he's concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long. Content Highlights The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40); Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43); Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09); Inflation may not need to return to the Fed's 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00); The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59); What to make of the banks? (21:14); One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30); The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28); Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening... (26:13); More about the Guest Twitter: @ InvictusMacro ; Website: Invictus-Research.com . Not investment advice.
S5 E8 · Tue, March 28, 2023
Tech Is Not Dead, Though It Is Certainly Changing: Kevin Philip
This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 23 and released to premium subscribers the following day . To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast . Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors joins the podcast to discuss why he's still bullish about technology despite seismic changes in that industry, his less enthusiastic take on cryptocurrencies, and other issues he's watching -- be they in the banking sector or geopolitically. Content Highlights Tech is not dreck, nor is it dead. Technological advances are at the heart of US economic growth. Demand for digital goods may have gotten ahead of its skis during Covid. It will return (1:40); Chances for an interest cut by year-end have increased with the bank failures (4:30); The employment situation is changing in the technology industry as it comes to terms with delicate circumstances around business models and the concept of value in general (6:01); The bank failures may create opportunities for venture capital in two areas: secondary funds and a new vintage of funds that should generate outsize returns in the future (9:20); Tech stocks have been beaten down, but lower interest rates can sustain earnings multiples. There are risks, however... (11:23); Some of the threats and opportunities wrought by Chat GPT and AI (14:11); When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the guest is not a major fan -- and this was recorded before Binance (18:52); Silicon Valley Bank was poorly managed and had a bad business model. It deserved to fail (21:52); As for Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank appears to have been undone by a crisis of confidence (23:44); Background on the guest (27:50); Bel Air's clientele is mostly about wealth protection rather than growth. What are some tried and true methods for accomplishing this? (32:25); China discussion and why there's no need to invest internationally (34:48); Through it all, there are reasons for optimism (43:31). Not investment advice. For more information on the guest, visit the Bel Air Investment Advisors website .
S5 E7 · Thu, March 16, 2023
Discussing the Possible End of QT With One Who Worked at the Fed
This episode was recorded in two parts, with a special segment added on March 14 to address the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Premium subscribers gained access to this added segment the same day it was recorded. Here it has been merged into the same file to create a single episode. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast . Jake Schurmeier of Harbor Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his experience at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which overlapped with a full monetary policy cycle, and what this may tell us about future Fed policy -- especially in light of the events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Content Highlights The guest spent several years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's open markets trading desk, where he was responsible for implementing monetary policy and monitoring the treasury market (3:41); In this role he experienced the whole life cycle of quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, concluding with the liquidity injections that accompanied the Covid pandemic (5:13); Chances are "pretty high" that the Fed reins in quantitative tightening, or QT, in light of the events around Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and Signature Bank of New York (SBNY). A lot of it depends on the uptake of the Bank Term Financing Program, or BTFP, the new lending facility (6:49); Can these measures save the business model of regional banks? (10:26); The possibility of moral hazard introduced by regulators (12:57); Where does this leave interest rate policy? Fifty basis points is probably off the table, but a 25bps raise is certainly in the offing... (14:10) In general, what kinds of catalysts will the Fed be looking for to shift from QT to QE? (16:20); Was there ever any talk of negative interest rates? Did the Fed ever have discussions about buying stocks (21:00); Background on the guest (25:33); The Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities was in retrospect unnecessary on the scale and duration with which it happened during Covid (28:24); For a quasi-government organization, the Fed acts quite quickly. Faster than corporations. A look inside the Fed's decision-making process (32:05); Yes, Fed officials and employees are required to disclose their stock transactions (37:29). Not investment advice. For more information on the gu
S5 E6 · Tue, March 07, 2023
Trader With 380% Gains in 2022 Tells Us Why He's Fully Allocated to Cash
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Mark Szemeszki joins the podcast to discuss his highly profitable short crypto trades from last year and why his business cycle theory has him sitting in cash. Content Highlights Three-hundred-and-eighty percent (380%) returns last year. How did he do it? (2:47); The macro view and leading indicators are pointing to a recession right now, which makes risk-taking more problematic in the short term (4:17); His short crypto trades predate the FTX saga (7:33); More on his business cycle theory (10:32); Inflationary pressure is real, including from China's reopening (13:37); More information on catalysts sought when shorting altcoins (16:17); Shorting the narrative on altcoins is a good strategy if you can get a good entry point (20:20); Background on the guest (25:08); More on his trades last year (27:13); Probably 99% of crytpo currencies are useless, even Bitcoin and Ethereum (29:37). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @MSzemeszki ; Covey portfolio .
S5 E5 · Tue, February 21, 2023
Yes, the Fed Can Still Engineer a Soft Landing: Callie Cox, eToro
A short clip of actionable highlights from this podcast episode was distributed to premium subscribers on Feb. 9 — almost one week ago at the time of this writing. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits (and avoid annoying ads and announcements), visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up! Callie Cox of eToro joins the podcast to discuss her view that the Federal Reserve can engineer a 'soft landing' -- defeating inflation while not tipping the US economy into a recession. Content Highlights It's hard to see how the Fed will be able to combat inflation without breaking things in the economy, but this is the guest's view (3:00); This view is partly based on the job market (4:06); Inflation is the major risk to the 'soft landing' thesis. But there are encouraging signs (6:00); Still, there is a chance investors are underestimating the chances of higher interest rates from the Fed (8:08); Ultimately, investors are discounting the global economy's strength (9:21); Technology has been harder hit than other sectors of the economy, which may bring second-order effects especially locally. But nationally, initial jobless claims are still low (13:57); The US consumer has been a particular strong point. No reason for that to stop (15:53); Background on the guest (20:12); Views on cryptocurrency (24:48); The concept of decentralized finance, or DeFi: not just a fool's errand (26:43); Does the VIX still matter? Maybe, but there are better options to gauge volatility (31:14). More on Callie Cox Website: eToro.com ; Corporate Twitter: @eToroUS ; Personal Twitter: @CallieAbost . Not investment advice.
S5 E4 · Tue, February 14, 2023
The Future of Technology Investing is Hardware, not Software: Robert Cote
A short clip of actionable highlights from this podcast episode was distributed to premium subscribers on Feb. 9 -- almost one week ago at the time of this writing. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits (and avoid annoying ads and announcements), visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up! Robert Cote, principal at Cote Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his model of technology investing, how it's different than venture capital, and which areas of new technology that he is most excited about. Content Highlights The last 20 years have seen venture capital focus on software companies, almost to the exclusion of anything else. Therein lies the opportunity (1:09); Hardware has been overlooked and can become the focus of technology investors again. One example is manufacturing (6:39); Use of nanocarbon has created one specific advancement in the area of solar technology (8:50); Unfortunately, this technology is not investable through public markets (12:22); Another example: textiles, specifically textile recycling (17:08); Background on the guest and his investment process (22:56); There is transportation-related innovation as well. No, not self-driving cars (36:31); Something from the realm of augmented reality: X-ray technology for surgery (38:57): Finally, what about crypto currencies? (43:18). More on Robert Cote Website: CoteCapital.com ; Twitter: @CoteCapital ; YouTube: @CoteCapital9399 .
S5 E3 · Thu, February 02, 2023
A Global Economy Beset by Discrepancies, With Joseph Politano
Joseph Politano of Apricitas Economics joins the podcast to discuss his views on the various discrepancies in the global economy -- and how the whole thing may play out. Content Highlights US home prices could be due for more declines, based on how housing starts and interest rates have been trending (2:15); How much of the strength of the labor market is due to interest rate hikes not having taken full effect yet? (4:09); Expecting a 'mild recession' may be as naive as anticipating a 'soft landing' (8:44); Traditional leading indicators are out of synch, with manufacturing employment dropping precipitously but the services sector going from strength to strength (13:30); The Fed may have already overdone it with interest rate hikes (14:57); The 'best case' scenario may be akin to what happened in 1995-96 (18:15); Background on the guest (22:23); What to (possibly) expect from Fed policy the rest of 2023 (27:29); Watch Japan's monetary policy as well (34:17); What about cryptocurrencies as a systemic risk? (39:08); More on Joseph Politano Website: Apricitas.io ; Twitter: @JosephPolitano .
S5 E2 · Tue, January 24, 2023
China Reopening: Underestimating the Impact on Global Economy, Markets With Mike Edwards
This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 18, 2023, with a short clip of actionable highlights distributed to premium subscribers the following day. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up! Mike Edwards, deputy chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss China's post-Covid reopening and why its impact on global markets is not being fully priced in by investors. Content Highlights China's abrupt U-turn over 'Zero Covid' is unquestionably one of the biggest changes to take effect in the global economy over the last few months (2:23); There have been reservations about this reopening, but it is happening with authoritative force and will have a major positive impact (5:08); What about the US de-coupling from China and the embattled real estate sector? (11:00) Where this will be felt most is in markets that have exposure to the Chinese consumer. It also points to Europe and emerging markets outperforming the US (17:54); Chinese consumers were far more restrained than their US counterparts during Covid and have been slower to return -- especially tourists. This is not just a one-off in terms of the resurgence of Chinese travel and services (24:20); What to make of the latest economic developments in the US, especially with the consumer? (27:31); Weiss's house view is that the US will avoid recession this year (34:02); Background on the guest (37:49); China can re-emerge without the US as a major partner (51:36); After some consolidation, the US economic and market cycle is marked by investors seeking to put money to work -- slowly (57:18). More on Mike Edwards Website: GWeiss.com ; Twitter: @MEdwards_Weiss. Not investment advice.
S5 E1 · Mon, January 09, 2023
Cyclical Stocks to Outperform as Inflation Drops to 3.5%: Barry Knapp's 2023 Outlook
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly sanguine view of the economy in 2023: Why cyclical stocks should outperform the technology and defensive sectors, and why he's expecting inflation to drop to 3.5% by the second half of the year. Content Highlights Inflationary recessions are different from deflationary ones. The last four were the latter. If there is a recession this year, it will be the former (02:18); Earnings downside is limited in this scenario, by 5% based on what happened in similar situations in the past, and earnings should actually go up (5:56); Tech margins should continue to be under pressure but economically-sensitive cyclical stocks should see margin expansion (10:50); The US labor market has actually started to weaken considerably -- and not due to Fed policy (12:18); There have been some big adjustments in the labor market post-pandemic (16:47); The 'wealth destruction effect' from tech stocks selling off is negligible (27:35); One point of concern: the deficit. This is where the implosion in wealth could affect things (32:59); The coming budget battle in Congress is worth paying attention to (34:41); The 'higher for longer' Fed interest rate hike thesis has gained traction. What this means for stocks (43:27); Inflation: Expect 3.5% CPI by mid-year (47:37). More Information on the Guest Substack: Ironsides Macroeconomics ; Twitter: @BarryKnapp . Not intended as investment advice.
S4 E35 · Thu, December 22, 2022
Recession in 2023 Should Be Benign With Ample Job Growth: Alex Chausovsky
Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US. Content Highlights There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03); The guest's assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37); The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46); The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12) With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to "truly break things" in 2023 (13:05); Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44); One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56); Background on the guest (22:56); Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32); The outcome he's expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35). More Information on the Guest Website: MillerResource.com ; LinkedIn: AlexChausovsky ; Twitter: @AChausovsky (not very active).
S4 E34 · Thu, December 08, 2022
Hard Assets the Place to Be in '23: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, joins the podcast to discuss his view on asset allocation going into 2023: why he is bullish on hard assets like energy and bearish on fixed income -- and why the inflationary environment is likely going to stick around. Content Highlights How Centerfin was set up coming into this year and what went into its contrarian decision to avoid fixed income (4:06); Current views on the market after a tough year (5:25); Centerfin's take is to be long hard assets, including commodities and commodity-linked equities while continuing to avoid fixed income like bonds (7:44); The environment is different now. There has been a regime change since 2017. Inflation can't just be exported anymore (9:48); There will likely be a recession. Once we emerge from it, leading industries will probably be different than they were in past recoveries (11:18); Why Centerfin is bullish energy and how they are playing it (12:55); Their chosen ETF to get exposure to clean energy (14:48); There is no need to buy international (ex-US) energy stocks (16:36); Short discussion on the concept of introducing different prices for different uses of energy (18:48); Re-shoring from China with Apple (AAPL) moving all its production out of the country and how to potentially play that trend (20:46); Background on the guest and what got him to start Centerfin (25:53); Distressed investing remains out of reach for most investors but Centerfin is considering ways to change that... (30:52); The bullish case for copper (39:13); How best to gain exposure to uranium (40:00). More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin Website: Centerfin.co ; Twitter: @WallStHobbes ; LinkedIn page ; Facebook: CenterfinHQ ; Instagram: @CenterfinHQ . This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.
S4 E33 · Thu, December 01, 2022
'Options Mike' on the Coming Year-End Rally for Stocks
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Michael Pisani, aka Options Mike, joins the podcast to discuss why he's anticipating a year-end rally in stocks. Content Highlights It's been a tough year for stocks and risk assets. That may be about to change (2:10); Jerome Powell and the Fed have twice this year fooled markets into anticipating a pivot. But something has changed and the FOMC is no longer unanimous with its hawkishness (4:04); There is still a lot of cash still on the sidelines (6:46); Specific areas of the market Pisani likes here. And specific stocks, primarily Ford (F) and to a lesser extent General Motors (GM), both as longterm plays (11:42); Another stock he's bullish on: Snowflake (SNOW) and several that are candidates to go to zero (12:33); An easy contrarian play: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Yes, really (15:46); Pisani's take on cryptos (18:31); Background on the guest (23:44). More on Options Mike Website: SmartOptionTrading.com ; Twitter: @OptionsMike . Not intended as investment advice.
S4 E32 · Tue, November 22, 2022
The Gold-Backed Currency for Everyday Use, Already in Circulation (Szn 4, Ep. 32)
Premium subscribers received this episode several days early -- and without ads or announcements -- as they do all podcast episodes. Sign up on Supercast or Substack . You can also take our listener survey to receive a free month of access. Jeremy Cordon joins the podcast to discuss his Goldback creation. These gold-imbued currency notes are worth upwards of 1/1000 a troy ounce and are already circulating (and being used) for point-of-sale transactions. Content Highlights Goldbacks seek to solve one of the challenges of using gold as a currency of exchange: the lack of small denominations that can be used in point-of-sale transactions (2:57); A single goldback is worth 1/1000 of a troy ounce of gold, or about $4 at current rates. The notes are imbued with physical gold through a microtechnology process and serialized (5:06); Goldbacks trade at a premium to physical gold because of the engineering and artistic labor that goes into their production -- and demand, as supply has historically been limited (8:54) Goldbacks as a disaster hedge (12:48); Background on the guest and how he came to create goldbacks (16:57); The limitations of cryptocurrencies when it comes to creating a gold-backed currency, through the guest's own experience (21:35); The legality of creating gold-backed currency (24:12); Between $8 million and $12 million-worth of goldbacks are currently in circulation, but goldback.com is a wholesaler (26:48); The guest's investing strategy and the concept of gold-backed leases as a way to profit from the goldback trend (30:57). More on Jeremy Cordon Website: Goldback.com ; LinkedIn page ; YouTube channel ; Instagram: @Goldback . Disclaimer: The host does not own goldbacks, holds no particular view on goldbacks, and does not benefit from the sale of goldbacks.
S4 E31 · Wed, November 09, 2022
Prepare for a 'Long Slog' in Stock Markets as Fed Hikes Continue: Bob Elliott
A ‘ highlight clip ‘ of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Nov. 7, the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Don't want to pay? Take our readership survey and get a month free. Bob Elliott, chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the Federal Reserve, inflation, the midterm elections, and why stocks have entered a long 'slog' for the foreseeable future. Content Highlights Investors have been conditioned for recessions to feature a fast decline in equity markets followed by a rapid recovery. This time around those dynamics are different (3:44); There is no chance of a 'Fed pivot' coming anytime soon (7:58); What about infighting at the Fed and within the FOMC? (11:03); Yes, you need unemployment to increase for there to be any progress with inflation. Higher prices are no longer due to supply chain issues (13:57); The Fed will raise either 50bps or 75bps at its next meeting and rates could easily go up to 6% (21:22); Background on the guest and his ETF, the Unlimited HFND Multi Strategy Return Tracker ETF. Stock ticker: HFND (26:19); The growing disconnect between hedge fund positioning and retail investors: Hedge funds are short bonds, long commodities, bullish gold, and are sitting on a bunch of cash... (36:21); The Fed's target rate for inflation is 2%, but that could change. That would bring a myriad of issues... (38:24); It's hard to get bullish about longterm bonds: right now and for the foreseeable future (40:54); Investors continue to look for reasons that the economy is slowing and the Fed needs to reverse course. There is virtually no evidence of this happening (42:44); The midterm elections are likely to lead to a split government. This brings tail risks that few people are talking about (44:50). More Information on Bob Elliott Website: UnlimitedFunds.com ; Twitter: @BobEUnlimited ;
S4 E30 · Wed, October 26, 2022
Investors Are Ignorant, Fade Their Conviction: Jason Shapiro
A ‘ highlight clip ‘ of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 24, with the full episode released the following day -- without ads or announcements. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Jason Shapiro joins the podcast to discuss his trading strategy, based on the simple premise that most investors are wrong most of the time. This approach requires trades to be crowded, which is decidedly (and surprisingly) not the case right now -- with two possible exceptions. Content Highlights Most traders lose money. Shapiro seeks to capture these losses by going against the crowd (3:11); He does this by monitoring the Commitment of Traders report for extreme positioning, which he then fades (4:03); The thinking behind this? The crowd is wrong. "It's really that simple." The discounting method is not price but positioning (6:11); Shapiro monitors 37 different futures markets. Two examples of where this approach worked in the past (7:03); Right now "I'm seeing some pretty scary stuff, because you don't have anybody crowded" in major asset classes (8:24); One possible exception: lumber (11:08); Background on the guest (16:35); Patience is a virtue, especially for contrarians (27:28); "I have contrarian views on everything...that's how I develop my opinion." People are wrong because they want others to guide them (31:00); The set-up in cryptos is "massively dangerous" based on positioning in Bitcoin futures. This sets Bitcoin and cryptos up for a major drop... (36:36). (On this last point, Shapiro shared the following chart) For More About Jason Shapiro Website: CrowdedMarketReport.com ; Twitter: @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt ; LinkedIn: CMR-Publishing .
S4 E29 · Wed, October 19, 2022
There's Still Time to Hedge Tail Risk -- At Least for Stocks: Kris Sidial
A ‘ highlight clip ‘ of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 17 -- one business day after it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Kris Sidial of The Ambrus Group joins the podcast to discuss tail-risk hedging: how it works, why it's important, and how investors can still take advantage of volatility mispricings to protect themselves against further downside -- at least in stocks. Content Highlights What is tail risk hedging? (3:19); Traditional hedges haven't worked, starting with the 60:40 approach. How might investors hedge stock and bond exposure? (6:15); There are numerous options for investors to protect against downturns. But it's not always as easy as buying put contracts on indexes (8:24); Variance swaps, one way to compound returns on movements in volatility (10:25); Thoughts on UK pensions and what might have caused issues in that segment of the market (15:27); What investors are doing in this environment in terms of tail-risk hedging -- there are still opportunities to hedge (20:02); Background on the guest (30:08); Discussion of systemic risk as a result of the layers of options trades and counterparties: "There is a systemic hazard taking place right now in the derivatives market" (39:32); Speaking of risk, what about the regulatory environment? Are regulators asleep at the switch? Reasons to believe Dodd-Frank is perhaps not as effective as people think.. (43:37) Thoughts on cryptocurrencies (50:01). More About Kris Sidial Website: Ambrus.Capital ; Twitter: @KSidiii ;; White paper mentioned in the episode.
S4 E28 · Wed, October 12, 2022
The Fed's Inflation Battle Is Doomed to Fail: Fabian Wintersberger
A ' highlight clip ' of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 10. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Fabian Wintersberger joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, inflation, and Fed policy. Content Highlights The Fed will not succeed at bringing inflation down to 2%. There will be no soft-landing for the economy (2:48); Interest rate hikes will proceed until something breaks in the real economy, forcing the Fed to reverse course (5:04); Bond yields: We haven't seen the highs yet (8:16); Background on the guest (14:10); The situation in Europe. Central banks have no choice but to follow the Fed higher (16:38); The situation in Wintersberger's native Austria, which faces an unprecedented winter with dramatically higher energy costs (18:55); Austria has historical ties to Russia, including in its banking sector, where one institution still has business in the country... (23:27). More on the Guest Twitter: @f_wintersberger ; Substack: The Weekly Wintersberger .
S4 E27 · Wed, October 05, 2022
Bullish on Oil, Pipeline Stocks, Long-Term Bullish on Cannabis: Todd Sullivan
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey -- Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com rejoins the podcast to discuss oil markets and the investment case for cannabis. Sullivan's call for $100 oil last year turned out to be prescient. Oil prices have retreated from their peak, but that will be short-lived, he says... (This episode was recorded Sept. 22, before the recent rebound in oil prices. Premium subscribers get an early actionable highlight clip of the podcast along with earlier release of the full episode -- and a host of other benefits. More on our Substack or Supercast .) Content Highlights Fears of 'demand destruction' have led to the decline in oil prices, but risks are tilted toward prices moving higher again. Production is not coming back (3:48); How much of a concern is a slowing Chinese economy when it comes to oil prices? (10:14); What about stocks? Sullivan continues to like pipeline companies... (16:00); The investment case for cannabis: Overview (27:03); The only thing that will unleash capital on the cannabis industry is decriminalization (31:46); What to look for if you are looking to buy and hold cannabis stocks and two of the guest's favorites (34:30). More About Todd Sullivan Website: ValuePlays.com ; Twitter: @ToddSullivan ; Covey portfolio .
S4 E26 · Wed, September 28, 2022
Jordi Visser is Optimistic About Inflation, Stocks, Cryptos -- And More
Premium subscribers received an eight-minute clip containing the most actionable highlights from this episode on Sept. 26. This is just one of many benefits of premium membership. For more visit our Substack or Supercast . Jordi Visser, president and chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss his reasons for optimism during this trying time for global financial markets. Content Highlights The environment is constructive for risk assets (2:26); Focus has moved from inflation. Investors are too negative (3:50); The Fed is raising interest rates. Inflation is coming down -- a lot faster than people think (4:41); What sectors and why? (9:53); No, you don't need unemployment to increase for inflation to come down (13:22); The bullish case for biotech (15:12); The blockchain will have profound impact on labor markets (19:42); Background on the guest (25:13); Clean energy and how that fits in (29:14); Oil should move higher, but watch out for global trade (36:47); Web 3.0 and cryptocurrencies: here too there are reasons to be bullish (39:48); Beta has started to outperform profitability. A final reason to be optimistic (51:45). More About Jodi Visser Website: GWeiss.com ; Twitter: @JVisser_Weiss ; Video on inflation after the CPI print; Weekly podcast: In Search of Green Marbles .
S4 E25 · Wed, September 21, 2022
Stagflation Is Coming Soon, Staying Awhile: Axel Merk
This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 16, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day . The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording. Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his views on stagflation, the Federal Reserve, U.S. dollar, and why the bottom is not yet in for stocks. Content Highlights Printing money does not fix supply issues. Next stop: Stagflation (2:59); The current environment simply is not conducive to taking risks (11:15); There's too much groupthink at the Fed and it's time for Jerome Powell to step down (13:21); The bottom for stocks is not in yet. The Fed needs to pivot first. What to watch for there (15:26); Background on the guest (24:43); The outlook for gold (31:20); How high might the Fed go with interest rates? (34:09). More Information on Axel Merk Website: MerkInvestments.com ; Twitter: @AxelMerk ; Merk Stagflation ETF and other funds: MerkFunds.com ; Not intended as investment advice.
S4 E24 · Wed, September 14, 2022
Inflation Will Ease, Fed Hikes Will Not: Richard Excell
This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 12, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day . The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording. To accommodate this new format, and our new production schedule featuring weekly podcasts, subscription prices are scheduled to increase. However, the old rate can be locked in for a limited time through this link (also mentioned in the intro). Richard Excell, former prop trader and portfolio manager and currently a professor of finance at Gies College of Business, joined the podcast to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and more. Content Highlights The outlook on inflation: 5% by December, but don't expect the Fed to ease off of rate hikes (7:14); Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? It has succeeded just three of the last 14 times it hiked rates... (9:34); We may not see a housing price decline on a national basis anytime soon (14:05); Expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 -- and again at the subsequent meeting in November, even though the economy should not start to brake until next year (16:11); Background on the guest (22:02); Views on asset allocation: more constructive for bonds than equities at present (27:03); A recession will happen. The good news: it may be mild... (32:30); How much of a concern are global issues in Europe and China? (35:40). More Information on the Guest Website: GiesBusiness.Illinois.edu ; Substack: Stay Vigilant ; CommonStock: Stay Vigilant ; Twitter: @ExcellRichard ,
S4 E23 · Tue, September 06, 2022
Convertible Bonds Offer Protection Against Stagflation, Other Ills Facing Markets: Daniel Partlow (Szn 4, Ep23)
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Sept. 1, 2022 without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast . Prices start around $9/month. Daniel Partlow, chief risk officer at Advent Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss convertible bonds. Partlow is a specialist in these securities, having written a book on the subject titled 'Convertible Securities: A Complete Guide to Investment and Corporate Financing Strategies.' Content Highlights First, the basics: What are convertible bonds and how do they work? The asset class has actually been around for more than three centuries... (3:29); Some of the characteristics of converts include a maturity of about four to five years but with low interest rate sensitivity of much shorter duration bonds (6:42); A typical balanced convert will provide downside protection (via the bond floor) and upside potential through the equity participation (9:18); Converts have done well in inflationary environments, with less volatility than stocks (11:44); The default rate for converts is a fraction of high yield and leveraged loans (20:38); Background on the guest (24:59); The specter of stagflation and how converts can protect against that (27:50); Where might there be particular opportunities in the converts market right now? (33:07); Examples of individual securities that may be of interest (37:52). More Background on the Guest Website and link to the book mentioned in the introduction. Additional Information The following slides were supplied by Advent Capitaol Management.
S4 E22 · Wed, August 24, 2022
Beating The Market is Hard. Optimizing Investments is Easy: Chris Hutchins (Szn4, Ep 22)
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers two days ago without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast . Prices start around $9/month. Chris Hutchins joins the podcast to discuss his strategy for asset allocation, which leans heavily on passive investing and optimizing earnings power rather than picking stocks. In this (admittedly) unorthodox episode he discusses some of his methods. Content Highlights You probably can't beat the market. Instead of trying to optimize the portfolio, why not optimize how quickly money can be put to work? Or maximize income from employment (5:55); Beating the market may be extremely difficult (if not impossible). but educating oneself is still invaluable along several lines that are discussed (8:07); How does Hutchins' asset allocation break down exactly? (10:45); The guest is also a venture capitalist. What areas of technology is he particularly excited about right now? (12:35); What about the VC model itself? (21:30); Background on the guest (30:00); Not investing is as big a mistake as investing incorrectly. Some of the options (35:32); How important is liquidity? (38:44); What has the guest most worried right now? (42:06). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @Hutchins ; Website: WealthFront.com ; Podcast website: AllTheHacks.com (includes links to podcast),
S4 E21 · Tue, August 09, 2022
Hugh Hendry, OG Contrarian
This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 3 and released to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast . Prices start around $9/month. Hugh Hendry is a man who needs no introduction to contrarians. Over the course of this 90-minute conversation, he provided many views on markets, the economy, the Federal Reserve, China, and a lot more. Of particular interest to investors are his bullish views on commodities, oil producers, and luxury goods makers... Content Highlights Hendry's most contrarian opinion right off the bat: The Fed is not responsible for the asset price bubble (2:40); "We find ourselves in the fourth depression of the last 200 years" after "les miserables" period of 1830 to ~1855, 1870 to the late 1890s, and the 1930s (8:11); "I don't think we have inflation." Sales of non-discretionary items are not increasing (13:53); Very few people understand money and money creation. What are they missing? (28:56); What's behind the stock market rally this summer? It may be commodities, at least in part... (39:49); Markets are 'bucking broncos.' Volatility can be a major distraction and nothing happens in a straight line. But commodity producers and uranium should be in good shape over the long term (46:55); Background on the guest. As an 'OG contrarian' Hendry joins an exclusive list (54:58); A little insight into Hendry's current life and psychology (1:10:40); Betting on the Chinese yuan weakening (1:14:37); The odds of the 10-year treasury making new lows (1:22:44); China invading Taiwan? Hendry sets the odds at 20% and says China will never have a stronger bargaining positioning vis-a-vis the U.S (1:24:16). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @Hendry_Hugh ; Substack: HughHendry ; Instagram: HughHendryOfficial ; YouTube: HughHendryOfficial ; The Acid Capitalist .
S4 E20 · Mon, August 01, 2022
The Bullish Case for Rare Earths: Louis O'Connor
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 26. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast . Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available. Louis O'Connor, CEO of Strategic Metals Invest, joins the podcast to make the case for rare earth metals. These commodities, hitherto unavailable to retail investors, are now accessible and entering the mainstream... Content Highlights Rare earth metals (sometimes called rare earth elements) are intrinsic to daily life. They are part of modern technology as diverse as electric cars, military applications, solar applications, nuclear reactors, and more (3:01); China produces more than 80% of the world's rare earths and refines metals even mined in the U.S. (5:39); Okay, so what are these rare metals exactly? There are 17 in all, though not all are exactly rare, or vital... (8:12); Rare earths have outperformed almost all major asset classes the last five years (14:22); The supply picture for rare earths is complicated, while demand is quite inelastic, depending on a diverse set of buyers... (18:58); Rare earths are entering the mainstream and production is increasing in the U.S., where it is more expensive (23:01); There is a specific rare earth where the investment opportunity is particularly compelling at present (31:58); Tellurium, on the other hand, is one that is not deemed particularly advantageous at the moment (35:50). About the Guest Website: StrategicMetalsInvest.com ; Twitter: @MetalsInvest ; Facebook: StrategicMetalsInvest ; YouTube .
S4 E19 · Mon, July 18, 2022
Oil Prices Will Rise to $200/Barrel: Salem Abraham
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast . Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available. Salem Abraham of Abraham Trading Co. joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook for oil, predicated on supply issues and under-investment. Content Highlights The shift to renewable energy is real, even in the Texas panhandle. But the transition is still in the very early stages. Oil and gas are still needed -- so are investments in infrastructure (4:13); Worldwide drilling has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. This will lead to $200/barrel oil and $10 gasoline prices (7:07); "I think we end up with stagflation," but even that will not solve the supply issues (8:50); Natural gas "is still a great investment" (14:14); The benefits of green hydrogen (16:31); There are more pipelines than popularly believed in the U.S. and they are actually more precarious than transmission lines (19:52); Background on the guest (29:36); Liquid alternatives and the need for better diversification (31:37); The Federal Reserve has to regain credibility after the 'transitory' talk. The Fed will blink, eventually... (36:02); Unrelated: Notre Dame will not join the Big 10 for football, says the alumnus (39:49). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @SalemAbraham ; Website: AbrahamTrading.com .
S4 E18 · Thu, July 07, 2022
Assessing the Precarious State of Markets With Marc Chandler
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers ton July 5 -- the same day it was recorded. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast . Prices start around $10/month. Free trials are available. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannock Burn Global FX, joins the podcast to discuss the precarious state of markets and what he is expecting from upcoming releases of key economic data. He also provides a pair of investment ideas for these times, with the understanding that nothing here is to be taken as investment advice. Content Highlights The coming week brings a number of crucial economic data around employment and inflation. What to expect (2:50); "I don't think we're in a recession yet. But I think it's going to be hard to avoid one." Cracks are appearing and these warrant attention (3:51); Weekly jobless claims (up Thursday) can be a leading indicator of recessions (5:30); Non-farm payrolls are up on Friday. What to expect (11:34); Core inflation is actually receding from highs, but the Fed can't (and more importantly won't) declare victory over inflation quite yet (14:42); Recent days have seen a shift in market sentiment, to where a rate cut is starting to be priced in (17:43); What is an investor to do here? The guest has two ideas, at opposite ends of the risk spectrum (25:23); More on the Guest Website: MarcToMarket.com ; Twitter: @MarcMakingSense.
S4 E17 · Thu, June 23, 2022
Fed Will Reverse Course on Rate Hikes, And Soon: Deer Point Macro
This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com — claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber . Deer Point Macro joins the podcast to discuss his view that the U.S. Federal Reserve will only hike interest rates once more before easing. Content Highlights The Fed is not some magical organization that can control all parts of monetary economics (2:50); The Fed can create demand for credit, but banks have to provide supply. And banks are pushing back (5:03); What to make of the Fed's rate hikes this year? How has that affected bank portfolios? (9:37); The eurodollar market plays a significant role in Fed policy and its implications. An explanation (13:24); The Fed stands to raise once more, at its next meeting in July, before having to cut rates in September (16:21); Inflation is stubbornly persistent. Doesn't this force the Fed to raise rates? (19:57); Background on the guest (30:14); Markets don't really react to ADP employment data, but for economic detective work it can be vitally important (31:48); How this all translates to asset prices: good for bonds but commercial banks are maybe not as safe as some would think. But regional banks may be a better bet (35:11); What about cryptocurrencies? (36:34); Quick discourse on the so-called 'Fisher effect' that posits that inflation rises as Fed funds increase -- over the long term (39:14). More on the Guest Substack: DeerPointMacro.substack.com ; Twitter: @DeerPointMacro ; CommonStock: DeerPointMacro .
S4 E16 · Thu, June 09, 2022
Reasons for Optimism Amid 'Peak Pain': Kevin Rendino
This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com -- claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber . Kevin Rendino of 180 Degree Capital joins the podcast to discuss reasons for optimism (yes, optimism) in markets and why we may have already reached "peak pain." Content Highlights Valuations for most of the market are already discounting bad news across the board. Cash balances are at peak levels seen at the start of the pandemic, in 2008, and 2001 (2:44); What segments of the market are particularly interesting right now? Look to semiconductors for starters (4:54); How big of a concern is Fed policy? (7:20); Media companies will benefit as the economy resumes its growth and advertising budgets revamp. There are indications this cycle is already turning (13:49); What is 180 Capital's investing style and how does it work? (16:25); Background on the guest (25:17); The guest meets with company management often. What are some 'red flags' and 'green flags' he looks for? (31:38); The 'great resignation' and which companies may be a great 'pedigree' for future executives (38:18); Some parting guidance and why today's market feels more like 1990 than 2008 (43:17). More Information on the Guest Website: 180DegreeCapital.com ; Twitter: @180DegreeCap ; "Reasons for Hope" article ; Stocks Mentioned on this Podcast 180 Degree Capital (TURN) -- the guest's publicly-traded fund; Lantronix (LTRX); Quantum (QMCO); Arena Group (AREN); Potbelly (PBPB). Not intended as investment advice.
S4 E15 · Tue, May 31, 2022
Bearish Indicators Abound, With Downside Risks for Stocks: Ayesha Tariq
This episode was recorded on May 26, 2022 and released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- that same day. There are a host of other benefits to becoming a premium subscribers, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast released each market day morning by 0700 ET. To become a premium subscriber, sign up here or through our substack . Ayesha Tariq of Keystone Consulting joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss her bearish views on the global economy and on stock markets, what investment options she prefers right now, and why work-from-home will not persist (or at least not at current levels). Content Highlights The idea of a 'Fed pivot' away from higher rates is baseless. The Fed has no choice but to raise rates (3:01); What about inflation having peaked? Won't that remove some pressure from the Fed? (8:35); Unemployment is due to rise, with companies soon having no choice but to lay off workers -- but this won't stop the Fed either (11:28); Markets had a good week. Did we have the bottom already? (13:57); What about commodities? A potential bright spot due to structural issues? (15:32); Background on the guest (21:06); What are some of the best options for investors in light of all this? (23:19); Real estate investment trusts are one good option, especially commercial real estate. Work-from-home was a phase that will be scaled back soon (26:25); More Information on the Guest Website: AyeshaTariq.Substack.com ; Twitter: @AyeshaTariq ; CommonStock: AyeshaTariq . Not intended as investment advice.
S4 E14 · Mon, May 16, 2022
Retail Analysts Are Smarter, Brooker Belcourt Has Proof
This podcast episode was recorded on May 11, 2022 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads or announcements, either!) To become a premium subscriber, go here or visit our Substack . Brooker Belcourt, CEO of Covey, joins the podcast to discuss his analyst platform and its ‘alpha algorithm’ that has been able to produce outperformance through its stock and ETF picks and crypto calls. Content Highlights Covey’s contrarian thesis: Retail analysts are every bit as good, if not better, than institutional analysts (4:10); The idea of a platform to aggregate analyst opinion is not new. But very recent history has proven Covey correct: its analysts predicted the drop in cryptocurrencies and rise in value stocks over that have transpired over the last week (5:53); The ‘alpha algorithm’ and how that works (6:58); What is Covey’s algorithm picking up right now? (11:03); Some highlights: Long commodities, fertilizer stocks like Mosaic (MOS), financials, energy stocks, and a few beaten-up tech names like Facebook/Meta (FB) and Alibaba (BABA). Short cryptos has been taken off (14:46); Isn't Covey just chasing past performance hoping for future results? (17:20) Great investors appear to have staying power, regardless of environment (23:27); Background on the guest and how he came to start Covey (28:11); Deeper discussion on how Covey's top analysts are positioning their portfolios right now (36:39); For More Information Website: Covey.io ; Twitter: @Covey_io ;
S4 E13 · Mon, May 02, 2022
This Correction Is Not A Buy Signal: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers — without ads or announcements — on April 28, 2022. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, go here or visit our Substack . Mike Singleton of Invictus Research joins the podcast to discuss why the current sell-off is not a buying opportunity for stocks. Content Highlights Many contrarians currently believe sentiment is too bearish, meaning the market is due for a run for strong performance. Their conclusion is likely wrong (3:28); Regardless of what investors say in surveys, the key question is whether they have money on the line -- and how much (5:50); Right now retail exposure to stocks is at all-time-highs, while institutional investors have cash at low levels (7:27); What about the economic fundamentals, which are mostly in good shape? (10:09); The Fed actually has credibility when it comes to tightening interest rates -- and is not just 'jawboning' the market (12:58); This is partly because the Fed does a lot more communicating than it has in the past (16:40); Inflation has likely peaked and will start to slow, though not by enough to let the Fed ease rates (24:02); Background on the guest and 'origin story' for Invictus Research (26:54); What part of the business cycle are we in now? (33:23); What does that mean for asset classes? (35:34); ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) "has been a terrific place to look for shorts -- quick discussion of Cathie Wood and her predicament" (38:03); Bonds will become an opportunity when the Fed 'breaks something' and there are indications that may be happening now (40:40); More Information on the Guest: Twitter: @InvictusMacro ; Website: Invictus-Research.com .
S4 E12 · Mon, April 25, 2022
No Recession Imminent, Watch for New Highs in (Certain) Stocks: Edward Olanow
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on April 19, 2022. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, go here or visit our Substack . Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market. Content Highlights Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (3:15); The Fed's talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is "just jawboning" (5:33); The era of 'buy & hold' is over; investors need to be more nimble (8:25); The house view at Weiss is that Nasdaq stocks will have a tougher time than other segments of the market (10:40); The war in Ukraine: in all likelihood risks are localized at present, judging by gold and energy prices (14:25); Background on the guest (18:40); What are dispersion trades and how do they work? (20:34); Why this may be a good time for this strategy -- and a 'turning point' for alternatives managers in general (26:27); Where all this leaves fixed income and the bond market: Fixed-income is less forward-looking than people think... (29:55); What Olanow and Weiss monitor for inflation (32:31); For More Information: LinkedIn ; Twitter: @WeissMultiStrat .
S4 E11 · Mon, April 18, 2022
The Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt
This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers without ads or announcements on Monday, April 11, 2022. Don't be jealous of premium subscribers -- become one by signing up here . Free trials are available. Leo Schmidt of River Eddy Capital Management rejoins the podcast to discuss the coming credit crunch, its impact on stock market sectors, and where to invest to protect one's portfolio. Content Highlights So-called "unicorn" companies, or the darlings of the VC crowd, and others that cannot generate cashflow, will face a tough reckoning (3:17); Undermining this is "a complete change of psychology" in terms of velocity of money (6:27); What if the Fed reverses course? It's not so simple (8:52); Oil is a short: "Oil is the ultimate liquid commodity" but there is a place for pipeline stocks... (11:38); What stocks can thrive in this type of environment? Look first to medical company spin-offs (19:13); Another area to look: Business development companies, or BDCs. This is a risky part of the market but there is at least one BDC making first-lien loans, which are the safest part of the capital structure... (26:23); Quick epilogue on China's latest Covid lockdown. There are ways to play the move away from supply chain issues that result (35:58);
S4 E10 · Wed, April 06, 2022
The Fallacy of Renewable Energy: Leigh Goehring
This podcast episode was recorded on April 4, 2022 , and released to premium subscribers –without ads or announcements — that same day . Become a premium subscriber through our substack or supercast to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing each market day morning. Leigh Goehring, managing partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins the podcast to discuss his view that most renewable energies are ineffective at reducing carbon output and pointless as investments. Content Highlights The consensus opinion is that renewable energy will solve many of the problems of CO2 production and energy needs. This is false (3:12); The "terrible energy efficiency" associated with renewables will make the world poorer (5:00); What is the problem with solar and wind and why are they so inefficient? (7:20); It's no coincidence that the energy crisis started in Germany, which is now forced to import coal (12:20); Vaclav Smil and the premise that there has never been a new technology with inferior energy efficiency that displaced the old technology (13:59); The ulterior motives behind China's green energy push (18:33); The "great hope" for a Moore's Law of wind mills and solar panels is a fallacy. Input prices have declined because energy prices have (21:05); Where does that leave electric cars? (25:00); Background on the guest (33:42); What parts of the energy industry are better targets for investment right now? Look to uranium for starters, "the perfect solution to our problems" (37:17); Copper is "the quintessential green metal" also facing a supply/demand imbalance. Also agricultural commodities, grains, fertilizers, nitrogen, and potash (41:26); Mosaic (MOS) is one of the world's largest phosphate and potash producers, and a stock the guest is particularly bullish on -- it trades at just 5x earnings versus 25x at the peak (47:07); An agricultural crisis could soon be upon us, leading to hoarding of supplies (49:58). More Information About the Guest Website: GoRozen.com ; Twitter: @GoRozen ; LinkedIn ; Link to Goehring & Rozencwajg video on the history of energy.
S4 E9 · Thu, March 24, 2022
Stock Picks to Play the Coming Inflation Slowdown: Lukasz Tomicki
This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, March 22, 2022 , and released to premium subscribers --without ads or announcements -- that same day . Become a premium subscriber through our substack or supercast to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital rejoins the podcast to argue his (highly contrarian) case that inflation is due to slow and to provide stock picks that allow investors to take advantage of current dislocations in markets. Content Highlights Inflation will peak around mid-year and return to historic norms shortly thereafter (2:43); Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its impact on supply chains have certainly contributed to higher prices for commodities, but markets will adapt (7:01); Another contrarian take: The Fed will successfully manage a soft landing (8:55); "Russia is basically a gas station with nuclear weapons." The U.S. and Europe can deal without Russian imports so this shouldn't be a point of concern (14:20); Stocks of two Brazilian companies that have been beaten down but have started to rebound... (20:05); A company that has been directly impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an IT consulting firm with a large presence in Ukraine whose stock has predictably been beaten up but could offer huge returns (31:38); The most likely outcome in Ukraine is for the military situation to grind to a stalemate (35:55); A final idea: Buy the Polish stock market through the iShares MSCI Poland Capped ETF (EPOL) (39:50). More Information on the Guest Website: LRTcapital.com ; Twitter: @Tomicki . Not intended as investment advice.
S4 E8 · Thu, March 17, 2022
Stock Picks for an Uncertain Time: Allen Bond, Jensen Investment Management
This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com -- claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber . Allen Bond, managing director and portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management in Lake Oswego, Ore., joins the podcast to provide some stock picks for an increasingly uncertain -- and inflationary -- time in global financial markets. Content Highlights Investors have two major issues they're grappling with right now: Ukraine and inflation (5:51); To protect against inflationary pressures, Jensen looks for businesses that have pricing power (11:11); Mastercard (MA) and TJX (TJX) are two such stocks (13:29); Background on the guest (19:36); Three additional stock ideas, starting with ADP (ADP), another company that is difficult to displace (28:54); Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), the leading provider of proxy services (35:51); Pfizer (PFE) has sold off since making Covid vaccine headlines last year, but continues to generate a ton of cash -- and put it to productive use (43:26). More Information on the Guest Website: JensenInvestment.com ; LinkedIn . Not intended as investment advice.
S4 E7 · Thu, March 10, 2022
Watch for the Bounce in Equities: Brent Kochuba, Spot Gamma
Brent Kochuba of Spot Gamma joins the podcast to discuss his view that there will likely be an equities rally into the March 17 options expiration. This podcast was recorded Wednesday afternoon, March 9, 2022, and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber today by visiting Contrarian.Supercast.com or our Substack . There are many benefits beyond getting podcasts a few days (or more) early and not having to deal with annoying ads or announcements. Content Highlights Stocks have been selling off with the Nasdaq now officially in a bear market. But the guest is short-term bullish for reasons that can be traced to market makers hedging counterparty risk (2:39); What about all the uncertainty with Russia-Ukraine? (5:57); Stocks are up since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, likely because markets were hedged going in due to Fed tightening concerns (9:28); What to make of the March 9 rally? A brief primer on gamma, vanna, and charm aka delta decay (11:02); Similar gamma squeezes caused rallies in the past around options expiry (15:20); Background on the guest (21:31); The hedges investors have put on ahead of the FOMC meeting next week should lead to more risk-off. The lower bound for the S&P 500 is 4,100 (24:36); Recent days have seen a change in options flow: Nvidia (NVDA) and crypto names such as Coinbase (COIN) have benefited along with Amazon (AMZN) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) (26:50); Liquidity is important and recent months have seen some of it leave the system (30:06). More Information on the Guest Website: SpotGamma.com ; Twitter: @SpotGamma ; YouTube: SpotGamma ; Not intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions!
S4 E6 · Wed, March 02, 2022
The 'Bad Times Are Already Here': Tobias Carlisle
This podcast episode was recorded on Feb. 25 and released to premium subscribers (without ads) the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit Contrarian.Supercast.com or ContrarianPod.substack.com and sign up! Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market's latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present... Content Highlights How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11) Every war starts with "the boys will be home by Christmas," but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer... (5:13); Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably... (8:52); The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53); Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder... (21:25); Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20); Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12); The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are "probably here" (37:18). More From the Guest Website: AcquirersFund.com ; Twitter: @Greenbackd ; Books: The Acquirer's Multiple and Deep Value via Amazon.
S4 E5 · Tue, February 15, 2022
Opportunities Abound in Emerging Asia, with Herald van der Linde, HSBC
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Feb. 9. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit Contrarian.Supercast.com or ContrarianPod.substack.com and sign up! Herald van der Linde, head of Asia equity strategy for HSBC in Hong Kong, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging Asia. Content Highlights Emerging markets have under-performed developed markets, including in Asia -- but this is not an entirely fair comparison (3:09); What of the premise that much of emerging Asia are simply suppliers to China and therefore dependent on that country? This too is not so simple... (6:01); Markets like Indonesia move independent of China and the U.S. With 250 million people, a growing middle class, and improved infrastructure, this is one area where there are opportunities (8:21); Financial services still have ample room to grow in the region, with large numbers of under-banked individuals. The energy sector, meanwhile, is transitioning (12:45); Background on the guest (19:26); Consumers are a growing force throughout Asia, but individual countries have vastly different spending habits. An overview (24:38); There is one country that nobody is really looking at in professional investing circles. The possibilities are enormous. That country is Bangladesh (31:55). More Information on the Guest Book: Asia's Stock Market from the Ground Up available on GoodReads , Amazon.com also in Kindle edition , and elsewhere ; Twitter: @HeraldLinde ; LinkedIn .
S4 E4 · Thu, February 03, 2022
The Case for the Turkish Lira, With Dave Fishwick, M&G Investments
This episode was recorded on Jan. 27 and aired for premium subscribers on Feb. 2, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast . Dave Fishwick joins the podcast to make the argument for investing in the Turkish lira after it dropped half its value versus major currencies. The appeal is not just the value but the carry, resulting in the equivalent of 30% to 40% annual interest income. To Fishwick and his team, the trade is not only contrarian but an example of the type of idiosyncratic idea that has no correlation to other parts of the portfolio. The conversation is not limited to Turkey but expands to the U.S., China, and other emerging markets during the second half of the episode. (This podcast was recorded in person at the iConnections conference in Miami. The acoustics were not ideal and there is some background noise as a result. Apologies for the inconvenience.) Content Highlights The macroeconomic policy experiment in Turkey, where the country's central bank took the highly unorthodox step of combating a sovereign crisis by reducing interest rates. The Turkish lira went into freefall as a result (2:24); The lira looks attractive on a real basis, but the real appeal comes in the so-called carry, an often-forgotten part of foreign exchange markets. How this works (3:29); Some background on the strategy by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, which is on the surface frightening. But therein lies the appeal (5:22); Why buy the Turkish lira when the CBRT is cutting rates while the Fed is raising rates? (11:07); If the CBRT succeeds with this experiment, could other emerging market countries follow its example? The strategy is not unprecedented... (13:15); Background on the guest (16:19); Fishwick's view on current markets. The market has re-rated asset classes, despite upbeat economic news (18:43); The present situation may appear bizarre, but it not without parallel. Why it's hard to be bearish for the longer-term (21:48); Other areas of the world that are interesting for investors, especially contrarians (24:11); There are "some similarities" with what happened the last time the Fed entered on a sustained interest hiking campaign (2004 to 2007), but many differences. The key? Watch the inflation data, though the Fed's record on engineering soft landings is poor (27:05). More Information on the Guest Website: MandG.com ; <a href= "https://www.linkedin.c
S4 E3 · Wed, January 26, 2022
Picking Stocks for the Long Term, With Alex Morris, The Science of Hitting
This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Jan. 18, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast . Alex Morris of The Science of Hitting Investment Research joins the podcast to discuss his views of markets, asset allocation, and a couple of stocks he is particularly bullish on at present. The conversation also includes a discussion of the just-announced buyout of Activision (ATVI) by Microsoft (MSFT). (The host has a bit of a throat issue and is hoarse for this recording. Apologies for the inconvenience.) Content Highlights Thinking about asset allocation in a structural manner -- with 90% or more invested in equities (3:32); How then to invest the equity portion? The first filter is business quality (7:43); Disney (DIS) has been one of Alex's favorite stocks for some time with Netflix (NFLX) a more recent favorite (12:26); Background on the guest (22:18); Other portfolio holdings and the Microsoft-Activision (ATVI) deal. Full disclosure: ATVI is/was part of the Contrarian Investor's portfolio for reasons that are briefly discussed (27:31); Could Facebook (FB) be forced to spin off any of its holdings? (32:20); When to sell a stock (36:18); Lastly a short discussion about our favorite soccer/football team (38:50). More on the Guest Website: TheScienceOfHitting.com ; Twitter: @TSOH_Investing .
S4 E2 · Tue, January 18, 2022
The Nascent Sino-U.S. Financial Cold War, with James Fok
This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com . Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Jan. 13, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast . James Fok joins the podcast to discuss his book 'Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets'. In Fok's view, the fates of China and the U.S. are highly intertwined, and neither country's leaders want the conflict to escalate -- but that could easily change. Content Highlights How the financial cold war is defined, some of the ways it is already impacting society and economics, and the risks of greater conflicts (3:06); Is military conflict between the U.S. and China inevitable? (4:49); The fates of the two countries are highly intertwined but the U.S. dollar and global monetary system have exacerbated imbalances (7:46); Why the belief that the USD's global role is good for the U.S. is a fallacy (11:02); The world needs to become less USD-denominated if the financial Cold War is going to be resolved. There is precedence for this (18:00); Background on the guest (30:00); The state of China's economy and where it's headed (33:44); China's economic problems are clear for all to see, but the social implications are probably being significantly underestimated (36:49). More Information on the Guest Website: JamesAFok.com ; Book: Financial Cold War .
S4 E1 · Thu, January 06, 2022
Barry Knapp on Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation, Economic Growth, and What Else to Expect in 2022
This podcast episode was recorded on Jan. 5 and released to premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. To learn about becoming a premium subscriber, go here . Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his 2022 outlook for the economy and markets. He is broadly optimistic on the former, but less enthusiastic about the latter -- at least in the first half of the year -- with strong possibility of 'uncertainty shocks,' especially around Fed events (sound familiar?) There is also some interesting discussion around interest rates, inflation, and China, among others. Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp) A lot has changed in a year, though probably nothing quite as much as the inflation outlook (3:04); Markets and economics should diverge significantly in the first half of the year (4:51); The Federal Reserve is due to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, which should be negative for markets but will be net-neutral, or perhaps even positive for the economy (8:00); Inflation is running hot, but the guest has done some deep research on similar historical epochs and finds the concern less pressing than most (17:20); The key level for inflation is 4% -- if the CPI exceeds it consistently there could be trouble. Link to the Fed paper referenced here (21:33); Still, there is a strong possibility for 'uncertainty shocks' in the first half of the year (29:52); Finally, China: Reasons to be bearish. Very bearish (34:58). More Information on the Guest Website: IronsidesMacro.com ; Newsletter: IronsidesMacro.Substack.com ; Twitter: @BarryKnapp .
S3 E29 · Tue, December 21, 2021
Causes for Optimism in 2022, With Ryan Worch
This podcast episode was recorded on Dec. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this benefit and a host of other services (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast released each market day morning) go to ContrarianPod.substack.com or Contrarian.Supercast.tech to subscribe. There is a special 40% year-end discount on new memberships through Dec. 31! Ryan Worch of Worch Capital rejoins the podcast to provide his outlook on stocks for 2022. Spoiler alert: He’s bullish. With certain qualifications. Worch mentions specific securities in the latter half of the episode. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Content Highlights Worch’s contrarian call: We’re still in a secular bull market (4:14); Underneath the surface there has been “some very real destruction in the speculative part of the markets.” Why this is happening (6:05); Is there any hopes for the Cathie Wood names, meme stocks, cryptos, and NFTs? (9:25); Many people are bearish. Too many (15:33); How Worch Capital is positioning its portfolio and some favorite names (20:45); A brief discussion about inflation (28:09). More Information on the Guest Website: WorchCapital.com ; Twitter: @WorchCapital .
S3 E28 · Tue, December 07, 2021
The Market Doesn't Care About Omicron or Inflation: Enrique Abeyta
This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Dec. 2, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast . This episode uses mature language. Discretion is advised for listeners that may be sensitive to this type of thing. Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the omicron strain of Covid-19 and inflation, and share his excitement about the metaverse. Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, could become the world's first $5 trillion enterprise. Not intended as investment advice. Content Highlights The market didn't go down because of omicron or because of what the Fed chair said. What caused the selling instead (5:09); Omicron is not the first Covid strain. It won't be the last. Society and the economy have been able to deal with the variants (6:28); Inflation is another boogey man (8:10); The spike in the VIX is more noteworthy -- and a bullish indicator for stocks (12:39); What about gold? (16:56); The metaverse: It's already here. People just don't realize it yet (24:07); Meta, the stock formerly known as Facebook, is as good a way as any to profit from these developments (27:29); Oil and gas "could go to the moon" (39:52). More Information on the Guest Website: EmpireFinancialResearch.com ; Twitter: @EnriqueAbeyta ; Everything about HardMoneyMag .
S3 E27 · Tue, November 16, 2021
Forget Inflation -- Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue, Says Emma Muhleman
This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com . Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Nov. 11, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast . Emma Muhleman of Ascend Investment Management joins the podcast to make the contrarian argument that inflation is overrated, will not cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and that deflationary forces are the bigger worry for global financial markets. These deflationary forces are both short term (slowdown in China) and long term (demographics in the developed world). Much of the discussion centers around the former. Muhleman's comments are her own and not a reflection of her employer. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Content Highlights (Spotify listeners can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment) The market is pricing in a series of interest rate hikes for the coming 24 months. But the Fed has backed off of a tightening schedule before (2:18); Bonds have been selling off, but investors will find themselves on the wrong side of this trade when Fed backs off of tapering (4:07); Inflation is a supply-side problem that the Fed doesn't have control of. Markets are too fragile to handle rate hikes (5:06); The latest FOMC meeting where tapering was announced "was probably the most dovish taper you could come up with" (9:20); Deflationary forces, starting with China, are a major issue the market is overlooking. This despite the best (non-publicized) efforts by the Chinese government (10:49); It's not just China though; demographics and debt are part of the longer-term trend toward deflation (19:19); Background on the guest (22:33); What about potential headwinds, from China or elsewhere? (24:58); Unwinding Evergrande: Where is the exposure? (29:05); How much longer can the Fed taper before their hand is forced to back off? (31:17); What indicators should investors keep an eye on to monitor this situation? (34:35). More Information on the Guest Twitter: <a href="http
S3 E26 · Mon, November 08, 2021
The Coming Stock Market Bust, With David Hunter, Contrarian Macro Advisors
This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com . Enter the code “contrarian” at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Nov. 4, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast . Note: The aforementioned service has nothing to do with David Hunter's newsletter. Individuals interested in finding out more about that service should contact David directly by Twitter direct message. David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to provide updates on his prediction that stock markets are in the final stage of a parabolic melt-up that will be followed by a global bust. Hunter's initial targets for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and other U.S. stock market indexes have been breached, causing him to provide new, even more bullish, targets. The bust will likely start with a 'second-quarter swoon' next year, caused by the Federal Reserve overreacting to inflation. The deflationary meltdown will then cause another overreaction by central banks and government fiscal policies. Not intended as investment advice. Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment in question) Hunter's new targets on the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (2:50); Oil and oil stocks have peaked for this cycle (6:50); The bust should happen about mid-way through 2022 and result in oil prices back in the mid-$20s range (8:25); The cycle will end because the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates due to inflationary pressures (10:28); Central banks around the world are withdrawing quantitative easing and some have even started to adjust interest rates higher. This will affect things and force the Fed's hand. Resolution of supply chain issues would increase the pressure (15:54); China will definitely play a major role in the bust, though Evergrande is probably just the tip of the iceberg (19:27); What happens after the bust is an unprecedented flow of liquidity. Yes, even more than COVID. There will be bank failures, though more in Europe and Asia than the U.S. (21:17); Central banks only have one tool to combat this, which is quantitative easing. They will be matched by fiscal stimulus.
S3 E25 · Mon, November 01, 2021
3 Areas of Technology Investors Need to Watch, With Simon Erickson, 7investing
This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com . Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Oct. 28, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast . Simon Erickson, founder and CEO of 7investing, joins the podcast to discuss three areas of technological innovation and disruption that stand to transform the world of business as we know it. The guest identifies one stock from each area, with the understanding that it is not intended as investment advice. Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp) Why focusing on technological change is contrarian (3:41); Idea No. 1: Buy now, pay later or BNPL. Disruptive to credit card companies (4:37); Several upstarts have 'cracked this code' but Erickson has one that he's been paying close attention to (5:57); Idea No. 2: Quantum computing (14:23); Background on the guest (22:25); Idea No. 3: Gene editing (25:24); How to go about picking entry points for investments in these areas? (31:30); What about cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies? (33:47). More Information on the Guest Website: 7investing.com ; Twitter: @7innovator ; More on 7investing subscriptions here .
S3 E24 · Wed, October 20, 2021
The Lessons From Iceland's Financial Collapse, With Jared Bibler
This episode brought to you by the Me, Myself and AI podcast . To get episodes without ads or interruptions, and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), consider joining our premium service. Prices start at $9/month. More information on our Substack and Supercast . Jared Bibler joins the podcast to discuss his book 'Iceland's Secret' and his experience living through that country's financial collapse in 2008. It was a very dark period in Iceland's history, with individuals losing homes and savings and not being able to buy food. The author experienced this first-hand, initially as an asset manager and later working for regulators seeking to bring the responsible parties to justice. The crisis in Iceland shocked the world but was quickly overshadowed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the U.S. Today it is largely forgotten outside of Iceland. But the author says his experience holds many lessons for the present day. If nothing else, his experience holds lessons for those interested in hedging against a total collapse of capital markets and civil society. Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the start of the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) Why Iceland's financial crisis remains misunderstood and not discussed while still holding important relevance to global capital markets today (2:36); Iceland as an extreme example of the contemporary world (7:51); Corruption unfortunately remains 'fairly endemic' worldwide in the guest's experience, which transcends several countries (12:43); The next crisis will make 2008 'look like a walk in the park' (14:27); Lessons for the prepper community: hard currency retains its value quite well in such crises (18:57); The crypto world is ripe for fraud and 'tethered' coins do not seem to offer the protection claimed (23:30); Background on the guest (29:21); How he's spending his days now and why ESG has the attention of global regulators (36:54); Insider trading, especially around M&A deals, is rampant (38:36); What has changed in Iceland, other than a tourist explosion (43:50). More Information on the Author Order the book online here ; Website: IcelandsSecret.com ;
S3 E23 · Thu, October 07, 2021
The Long Term Bull Case for Oil, With Todd Sullivan, ValuePlays.com
This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com . Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount! To get episodes without ads or interruptions, and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), consider joining our premium service. Prices start at $9/month. More information on our Substack and Supercast . Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com joins the podcast to discuss his long term bullish views on oil. The guest also provides his favorite stocks -- all portfolio holdings of his -- for investors to take advantage of this trend. Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the section directly) Big picture elements of supply, demand, and infrastructure that are driving the long term bull case for oil (2:50); What about the potential for an economic slowdown in the U.S. and more importantly China? How might that impact things? (7:39); Background on the guest and how he turned his passion as a blogger and investor into his current position (11:17); The three energy names he really likes right now (18:51); Energy has been unpopular for some time and people are under the illusion that gas and oil are going away. "Nothing could be further from the truth." (25:28); Why transport companies are more of a pure-play on energy prices than drillers (29:30); $100/barrel oil is a "realistic scenario" and prices could stay high after that as the macro outlook remains constructive (37:17); The bullish outlook for the cannabis industry in the U.S. -- this will be the topic of a future episode (42:49). More Information on the Guest Website: ValuePlays.com ; Twitter: @ToddSullivan . Special Offer for Listeners Subscribe to ValuePlays at the original rate (discount of 63% over current prices). The guest discusses specifics of the service starting at (32:04).

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Opportunities in High Yield, Private Credit and More: AJ Giannone, Allio Capital

Recession Fears Are Overblown: Robert Smallwood, The Contrarian Catalyst

Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs: Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust

Pessimism's Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors

AI Stocks Can't Lead the Market Much Longer. Invest Internationally Instead: Dan Rasmussen, Verdad Capital

Prepare for End of US Dollar Cycle, as Emerging Markets Rise: Rohit Goel, Breakout Capital

The Looming Iceberg Ahead of the US Economy: Les Rubin, Main Street Economics

Natural Gas as the Energy of the Future: Applications and Investment Opportunities, With Farid Guindo

Opportunities in Closed-End Municipal Bond Funds: Jonathan Browne, RiverNorth Capital

US Election 'Black Swans' Include Significant Chance of Political Violence

Tariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 (Should It Happen)

Trends Point to Trump Victory, Republican Sweep: Flip Pidot

The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More, With Tony Greer

Finding Contrarian Investors Among US Presidents Past and Present

Fed's Next Move, Trump 2.0, Opportunities in AI, Argentina: James Fishback

Economic Data Pointing in Right Direction, for Now: Colin White, Verecan Capital

Bonds Poised for More Upside. Tech Stocks Too: Chad Olivier

Gold Prices Set to Move (Even) Higher: Dana Samuelson

The 'Stoic Investment' Primer, With Darius Foroux

US Economy Too Strong for Fed, Where to Invest Now: Leo Schmidt, River Eddy Capital

Stock Market Expectations Getting Ahead of Economic Realities: Bob Elliott, Unlimited

The Specter of Stagflation Still Looms: Ayesha Tariq

Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order: Doug Greenig, Florin Court Capital

The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It's Positive: Enrique Abeyta, HX Research

Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History: Daniel Peris

Lessons From Financial History: Mark Higgins

Time to Get Defensive, Avoid 'Magnificent 7' Tech Stocks: Ted Oakley, Oxbow Advisors

US Economic Outlook 'Surprisingly Optimistic': Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust Co.

Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024: Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

Risks Point to Downside in 2024: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin

Short-Term Treasuries the Place to Be: Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap

Opportunities in Emerging, Frontier Markets: Kevin T. Carter, EMQQ Global

Opportunities in Credit Markets with Tom Carney, Weitz Investments

Stocks, Bonds to Rally in Q4: David Hunter

Contrarian Investing Primer With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors

Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets: Ayesha Tariq

Diamonds as an Asset Class: Concepts, Contrarian, Catalysts, With Cormac Kinney

Some Disparate 'Best Ideas' for the Rest of 2023: Brooker Belcourt

The Economy's Soft-Landing Will Be Short-Lived: Peter Kraus, Aperture Investors

Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching 'Invulnerable Extremes': Peter Atwater

Contrarian Wealth-Generation, With Stephanie Walter

Trend-Following Strategy Primer and Current Opportunities, With Anthony Todd, Aspect Capital

Regional Bank Credit Risk, AI Tech Hype, Trouble in Commercial Real Estate: Chris Bemis, X-Cubed Capital

Inflation Will Persist Above the Fed's Comfort Level: Naomi Fink

AI is Overhyped, Will Only Worsen Inequality: Simon Johnson

Value Stock Geek on Google, Meta, Taiwan Semiconductor

Mild Recession Brings Opportunities in Tech Stocks, Corporate Bonds: Elliot Kallen

Author of 'SBF' on his Book's Subject, What Undid FTX, Future of Cryptos

3 Stock Picks, the Case for Investing in Malaysia: Aaron Pek

Risk/Reward Still Skewed Toward Risk: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research

Tech Is Not Dead, Though It Is Certainly Changing: Kevin Philip

Discussing the Possible End of QT With One Who Worked at the Fed

Trader With 380% Gains in 2022 Tells Us Why He's Fully Allocated to Cash

Yes, the Fed Can Still Engineer a Soft Landing: Callie Cox, eToro

The Future of Technology Investing is Hardware, not Software: Robert Cote

A Global Economy Beset by Discrepancies, With Joseph Politano

China Reopening: Underestimating the Impact on Global Economy, Markets With Mike Edwards

Cyclical Stocks to Outperform as Inflation Drops to 3.5%: Barry Knapp's 2023 Outlook

Recession in 2023 Should Be Benign With Ample Job Growth: Alex Chausovsky

Hard Assets the Place to Be in '23: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin

'Options Mike' on the Coming Year-End Rally for Stocks

The Gold-Backed Currency for Everyday Use, Already in Circulation (Szn 4, Ep. 32)

Prepare for a 'Long Slog' in Stock Markets as Fed Hikes Continue: Bob Elliott

Investors Are Ignorant, Fade Their Conviction: Jason Shapiro

There's Still Time to Hedge Tail Risk -- At Least for Stocks: Kris Sidial

The Fed's Inflation Battle Is Doomed to Fail: Fabian Wintersberger

Bullish on Oil, Pipeline Stocks, Long-Term Bullish on Cannabis: Todd Sullivan

Jordi Visser is Optimistic About Inflation, Stocks, Cryptos -- And More

Stagflation Is Coming Soon, Staying Awhile: Axel Merk

Inflation Will Ease, Fed Hikes Will Not: Richard Excell

Convertible Bonds Offer Protection Against Stagflation, Other Ills Facing Markets: Daniel Partlow (Szn 4, Ep23)

Beating The Market is Hard. Optimizing Investments is Easy: Chris Hutchins (Szn4, Ep 22)

Hugh Hendry, OG Contrarian

The Bullish Case for Rare Earths: Louis O'Connor

Oil Prices Will Rise to $200/Barrel: Salem Abraham

Assessing the Precarious State of Markets With Marc Chandler

Fed Will Reverse Course on Rate Hikes, And Soon: Deer Point Macro

Reasons for Optimism Amid 'Peak Pain': Kevin Rendino

Bearish Indicators Abound, With Downside Risks for Stocks: Ayesha Tariq